Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2981 CWSA 10⧸07⧸25

00:00:00.000 a little technical glitch there so it took me a moment to sign on come on in grab a seat grab

00:00:06.400 the beverage it's time for your favorite thing of the day well according to me let me check your

00:00:14.320 stocks first let's see up a little bit tesla's down a little bit and video is up wow and then

00:00:24.560 he is up again eight percent wow holy cow you guys ready for a show

00:00:46.560 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:51.200 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance

00:00:56.400 on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny

00:01:01.520 human brains all you need is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chalice a steiner canteen jug or flask

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00:01:21.440 that's right the simultaneous sip and it happens now

00:01:33.680 oh yes i'm a little bit in a little bit of pain all right just an update uh yesterday i spent the day in

00:01:41.200 the emergency room for pain cancer related had a bunch of tests the the short version is um it

00:01:49.360 doesn't look like it's a spinal problem it looks like it's a bone problem so it's bone cancer problem

00:01:55.360 so my cancer is back all over in my body i don't know if it ever went away but for a while it didn't

00:02:01.680 bother me so i'm sort of back to where i was a few months ago meaning that my life expectancy would be

00:02:08.800 a few months that's about it maybe six months if i'm lucky but uh there's a newishly approved drug

00:02:17.920 called pluvicto which can remove tumors not every time and it's not a cure but for some people it just

00:02:25.840 totally removes their tumors so um i'm in the process of trying to qualify for that which should be

00:02:34.480 able to do should be no problem and uh fairly soon i would imagine i would start that it's one of those

00:02:41.280 you have to go to a place and get an iv six times over two months or whatever it is and uh

00:02:49.360 there's some chance that that would at least set the pain back a little bit we'll see we shall see

00:02:58.000 you um so uh i don't know how many of you are subscribing to dilbert on either x or on locals

00:03:09.120 but you may have noticed that i also include for free the 10 year ago dilbert that ran on this date

00:03:17.040 but 10 years ago and if you notice that the comic from 10 years ago is consistently exactly like today

00:03:25.120 has anybody noticed that so 10 years ago i started doing all kinds of humanoid robots in the office

00:03:33.760 and it was all about you know the co-worker who is a robot and the robot takes over for the boss one

00:03:39.600 day and you know everything's about the robot but if you look at the 10 year old comics you cannot tell

00:03:47.280 that i didn't draw them today they're exactly like today all the things that you could anticipate

00:03:53.440 would be a problem with robots well it's all there anyway i thought that was interesting uh elon musk

00:04:00.480 says that grok the ai will soon be able to make a movie that's at least what he says watchable before

00:04:07.520 the end of uh next year so before the end of 2026 and he thinks he'll be able to make what he calls a

00:04:14.000 really good movie by 2027 does that feel right to you do you think that by the end of next year

00:04:22.160 grok will be able to make a watchable but not you know best movie in the world but that by the end

00:04:28.320 of the year after that uh it'll be making full movies that you'll want to watch well i don't know

00:04:36.080 now open ai in a related um related news open ai says that they're not going to protect your copyright

00:04:44.720 for people like me who own a property like dilbert they're not going to protect it you have to

00:04:51.280 specifically ask them to exclude it from their training and from their answers so you have to exclude

00:04:58.080 it so it can't be used by other people but you have to specify it and you have to specify every

00:05:03.120 character so i can't just say all the dilbert characters i have to say wally the world's smartest

00:05:10.480 garbage man dilbert catbird ratbert i gotta do them all now i do plan to do that um and also

00:05:19.440 with my book god's debris so i did see uh jay did this amazing little uh demonstration of god's debris

00:05:26.880 the first first few pages of the book and it's really impressive i have to say it's really impressive

00:05:34.000 um but i don't know if we have what we could i don't think we have enough to make a

00:05:38.400 full short movie i don't think it's quite there yet but boy was it impressive

00:05:45.280 anyway speaking of uh ai and elon musk um he was doing an interview somewhere where

00:05:51.520 somebody asked him this question uh what is the universe contained in which is a funny question

00:05:59.920 the universe exists but what's it in

00:06:03.280 is that a weird question the first time i heard it i thought wait a minute it's not in anything

00:06:10.560 because the universe is everything but doesn't everything have to be in something

00:06:18.160 and i wasn't sure but uh here was uh elon's answer to the question what is the universe contained in

00:06:25.120 answer a computer i agree with that and uh then i guess lex friedman asked elon what's outside the

00:06:36.960 simulation and elon's answer was um what was his answer

00:06:44.160 uh what's outside this simulation damn it did i not write down that down apparently not um

00:06:56.880 but what's outside this simulation will you know would sort of tell you oh i'm sorry that was the

00:07:03.760 question that elon wanted to know the answer to it wasn't the one he has the answer to that's that's

00:07:09.280 where i was going wrong i thought i didn't write down his answer but he doesn't have an answer as a question

00:07:14.160 the question is um what's outside the simulation is there like somebody in a gamer chair who's

00:07:20.720 running our world maybe maybe i'll let you know when i get there um but here's a uh if you want a

00:07:30.720 little lesson in credibility here's what credibility buys you i gave you a trump persuasion lesson the

00:07:38.320 other day where i said if you're credible in the thing that you're persuading well you know you're

00:07:43.520 halfway done because people say oh you could do that so you have to be credible do you know how

00:07:50.480 credible you have to be to be elon musk and say that reality is a simulation and have people say

00:08:00.080 yeah maybe it is do you have any idea how much credibility that takes that's like the maximum

00:08:07.760 maximum credibility that you would even even for a second you would consider that possibility

00:08:13.920 like who else could do that when i have this conversation about the simulation do you know

00:08:19.120 what kind of response i get not i don't get the one where people believe me because i'm so credible

00:08:26.240 about science and the simulation i get sort of dismissed it's like yeah yeah yeah you're really

00:08:32.320 just talking about god you're just using different words so i always just get dismissed so that's

00:08:37.600 where credibility is your superpower elon has it on this topic and others and i don't have it on this topic

00:08:48.160 well openai is announcing that chat gpt their app will now work with some other existing apps so i

00:08:56.320 think that means it would act like the uh user interface for other apps not that they wouldn't

00:09:02.960 have a user interface but you'd be able to control them just by talking to your ai so that includes so

00:09:08.640 far booking.com expedius spotify figma whatever that is coursera zillow and canva and they're adding

00:09:16.800 ones all the time so let me give you the business take on this as a user wouldn't you love it if you could

00:09:26.560 talk to your ai and you didn't have to open another app to do a thing how much would you love

00:09:32.800 booking a trip without opening a booking app oh my god the booking apps are terrible the travel apps

00:09:40.240 it's not just me right all the travel apps are complete garbage and you don't know which one to use and

00:09:45.760 and so but if i could talk to ai and just say all right i'm planning a trip to the northeast

00:09:52.400 sometime in the autumn when the when the leaves are changing and then just have it make you up a

00:09:57.760 you know a great trip that would be amazing but do you know what these uh app makers are not

00:10:04.000 calculating they're not calculating that if the user interface becomes ai ai owns them so basically

00:10:13.200 they're plotting their own uh their own demise so if ai can do all these things by working with an app

00:10:22.480 how long is it going to be able to take before ai can do all of those things without the app

00:10:29.120 so once you get people used to using ai instead of opening up say booking.com how many people are going

00:10:36.080 to open up booking.com after that nobody they're going to open open ai and then open ai can do stuff

00:10:43.200 like put their own advertisement in it and then booking.com will be like hey this is our app we

00:10:50.240 we're the ones who should be doing advertising and open ai will say oh we're sending them to your app

00:10:56.160 but after they see the advertisement so what i'm suggesting is that these uh small app companies well

00:11:03.760 not that small um are very quickly going to learn that ai is eating their lunch and there's no way

00:11:10.480 back there's no way back ai will absorb all these apps anyway so that's what's happened step one step

00:11:20.320 one become the user interface step two replace the apps themselves inevitable calling all book lovers

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00:11:54.880 according to max rigo who's writing for the hill there's a new senate report that says

00:12:03.520 that 100 million jobs we lost to ai and automation is that a lot 100 million well if it were all in

00:12:12.000 the united states it would be every employee wouldn't it isn't that right i don't think there are

00:12:19.520 100 million people who even work it's maybe one out of three people work that would be everybody so i

00:12:26.640 i assume 100 million is across uh the world which wouldn't be that much 100 million in the united

00:12:34.560 states would be the end of everything but 100 million across the world well maybe you wouldn't even

00:12:40.640 notice it that much but uh what else they say um so that the types of jobs they think are going to go

00:12:48.480 away would be fast food um and anybody who works the counter probably um and what else uh customer service

00:12:59.680 reps laborers and freight stock and material movers secretaries they're still secretaries

00:13:05.840 what business has a secretary when was last time even saw or heard of a secretary i don't even think

00:13:15.040 they exist do they secretaries maybe maybe for ceos um and let's see uh also executive assistants

00:13:27.120 there's no way that ai is going to replace an executive assistant

00:13:30.480 that's not going to happen so i think i think that most of these estimates are totally overblown

00:13:37.440 um i'm going with the people who say well it's probably just going to make all those existing

00:13:44.080 people a little more efficient it probably isn't going to replace them because the there's so much

00:13:49.840 of a problem with hallucinations can you imagine a customer service rep being ai and then just

00:13:56.960 hallucinating every time the customer asks it a question and and the customer would just get

00:14:02.080 you know more and more mad you can't have a customer service rep with this form of ai and we we've not

00:14:09.360 invented another form there's only one form of ai as far as i know i mean one that you could use in

00:14:15.600 this way and it can't possibly work like by its design it can't work because it's designed to hallucinate

00:14:23.440 not intentionally but that's what the design gives you all right how many of you saw a story in the news

00:14:31.040 that seemed to show an adult policeman putting handcuffs on a toddler and the alleged context was

00:14:41.280 the toddler's family was protesting or maybe they were they were going to be shipped back to some other

00:14:48.000 country did anybody see that i didn't see the original story but i i saw a post by dr interracial

00:14:56.640 who's a real good follow dr interracial he's in an interracial marriage and has lots of insights from

00:15:01.920 that um but apparently the uh the thing that people thought was outrageous somebody putting handcuffs on a

00:15:10.160 toddler there was somebody putting handcuffs on a toddler his father when they played cops and robbers

00:15:17.760 it was literally his father playing cops and robbers and the kid was enjoying every minute of it he's

00:15:23.520 like you know give me your hands and he handcuffs him now so that becomes some big story i didn't see it

00:15:30.800 but apparently people believe that was something else well yesterday would have been scary if you were

00:15:37.840 flying into burbank airport because 100 of the air traffic controllers uh left or didn't come to work

00:15:45.360 all of them there wasn't a single air traffic controller in the entire airport and you've got all these

00:15:51.520 planes looking to land and none what do you think they did well apparently they have the ability to

00:15:59.680 somehow work remotely from another airport so i think uh there's a team out of san diego who somehow

00:16:07.920 could get access to the uh to the you know critical stuff at burbank and they could just run it from

00:16:17.040 off-site now obviously i'm pretty sure that would have some disadvantages to not be on site but but at

00:16:24.960 at least they got through it you know just in a emergency sense they didn't get through it but

00:16:30.320 it's mostly from people calling in sick because of the government shutdown so there's that

00:16:36.400 um i guess the trump administration is looking into whether the so-called furloughed federal workers

00:16:46.160 the ones who are not working because of the shutdown are going to be guaranteed back pay

00:16:51.600 uh apparently there's an argument that they shouldn't be now i don't know if that i don't

00:16:56.320 think that applies to everybody who's furloughed but for some of them

00:16:59.840 um it looks like the trump people want to make it uh optional so that they don't necessarily get

00:17:09.520 back pay that doesn't feel like a good idea does it like how could you win politically

00:17:16.320 by cutting a little bit on the budget but doing it on the backs of the people who had nothing to do

00:17:21.600 with the shutdown you you don't punish the people who had nothing to do with the shutdown

00:17:26.240 so um i don't know if they're just floating this idea and it won't happen but it looks like a terrible

00:17:33.040 idea wouldn't you say i'd say just terrible idea i like saving money but not on the backs of

00:17:40.400 people who just wanted to go to work all right um let's see uh

00:17:49.360 uh so apparently there's a senior prosecutor in the eastern district of virginia who would be in

00:17:58.080 charge of charging uh new york attorney general letitia james for any mortgage um mortgage cheating

00:18:08.000 so she's accused of cheating on a mortgage to get a lower rate and apparently the senior prosecutor

00:18:15.280 decides not to prosecute um and the argument for it is that um there's not enough there's no probable

00:18:24.880 cause there's no probable cause let's see if i can uh pull some of these you know these these facts

00:18:35.760 together let's see she is an attorney general that means she's a lawyer right she's a trained lawyer

00:18:47.040 in the comments how many of you who have been involved in real estate if you've never been

00:18:52.400 involved buying any real estate you can pass on this one but if those of you who have had any

00:18:57.440 involvement in real estate did you not know that you couldn't claim two houses as your primary residence

00:19:05.040 is there anybody here lawyer non-lawyer attorney general non-attorney general is there even one

00:19:11.280 person here who didn't know that you're not allowed to do that and if you and if you didn't know that

00:19:18.480 don't you think you'd be able to figure it out by the forms themselves as in the form would ask

00:19:24.000 you whether you own it or rent it and you would say to yourself huh that must be important because

00:19:30.000 otherwise they wouldn't ask the question why why did they care if you have another house

00:19:36.240 right i mean as long as you can afford it well the answer is you're only allowed to have one

00:19:41.200 that's your primary residence are you telling me that this top prosecutor believes that the attorney

00:19:49.120 freaking general is the only person in the world who didn't know you're not supposed to do that claim

00:19:54.800 two primary residence how about the part where she listed allegedly maybe this didn't happen

00:20:00.000 but allegedly she allegedly she listed her dad as her husband or something to get in a better rate

00:20:06.560 do you think she wouldn't know that listing the wrong person on the application would be a problem

00:20:12.800 but she wouldn't know that the attorney general wouldn't know that

00:20:16.320 um you know i think trump needs to or whoever somebody needs to fire this person the eastern

00:20:25.840 district of virginia you gotta fire that person there's just no way that the attorney general

00:20:33.040 wasn't fully aware of what she was doing there's just no way i i give that a zero percent chance

00:20:39.680 and by the way ignorance of the law um is not a defense oh wait according to grok it is so i went

00:20:49.680 to grok and said you know just to make sure i said is there any situation where ignorance of the law

00:20:56.960 would be a legitimate defense because i've always been told that ignorance of the law is no defense at

00:21:02.880 all and that it wouldn't matter what the law was you can't just pretend you didn't know i mean

00:21:07.920 that would be its own set of problems but there are some cases according to grok where uh not

00:21:14.800 knowing it was illegal would actually be a defense so if the crime requires what grok calls willful or

00:21:22.400 knowing violation let's say a tax evasion which would be sort of what this mortgage thing is in a

00:21:28.400 tax evasion situation um apparently if you said oh i'm good i'm making up my own example here this is

00:21:35.840 not from grok but i think this is right if you are if your accountant makes a mistake on your taxes

00:21:43.280 and all you did is sign it but you know you're not an accountant so you didn't really check the work

00:21:48.640 i feel like that would be a case where there's no evidence of willful violation because it would just

00:21:55.120 look like your accountant got a little too aggressive but maybe you didn't even know it

00:21:59.040 you know that makes sense to me i don't think you should go to jail if your accountant makes a

00:22:05.600 mistake on your taxes or if it looks like that's what happened here's another one if someone relies

00:22:13.120 on official but incorrect advice so let's say a government official advises them oh yeah that's

00:22:19.680 totally legal and then they do it and they find out it wasn't legal that's actually a defense that

00:22:26.080 depending what government official told you it would have to be somebody in the right

00:22:29.840 the right line of work but that's actually a defense i didn't know that with amex platinum

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00:22:51.600 slash why annex all right um kamala harris as you know is out there drunken babbling about her new

00:22:59.840 book and about trump and uh yesterday she uh she had a moment that was uh reminded me of trump being

00:23:09.760 shot in the ear and jumping up and going fight fight fight very inspirational except uh instead of being

00:23:17.120 shot in the ear um she's just uh drunk she's just drunk and lying and got up at a recent event and

00:23:26.160 started yelling it was the closest uh the tightest our closest presidential election in the 21st century

00:23:34.000 he does not have a mandate he does not have a mandate did you hear me he does not have a mandate

00:23:39.760 so that's kamala harris's uh persuasion which one was better fight fight fight with a bullet just just

00:23:51.120 in his ear or all right give me some more vodka there's no mandate there's no mandate there's no

00:23:57.520 mandate at all well i'm here to tell you that the answer is it's a tie unfortunately now obviously trump

00:24:06.000 was more inspirational there's no doubt about that but if you're just looking at can you convince

00:24:11.600 somebody of something that they weren't convinced of before do you know what it takes just repetition

00:24:18.800 that's it if kamala harris just keeps saying this over and over again and it looks like she will it

00:24:26.080 will work it won't work on any republicans none but uh of the low information democrats

00:24:34.960 it will work with every one of them all they have to do is hear it three times they hear three times

00:24:40.480 it's a fact the rest of their life so um that's your persuasion lesson of the day if somebody prominent

00:24:50.560 says something more than three times and you hear it you're probably going to think it's true if they're

00:24:55.760 on your side if they're not on your side you might say hey i think they're lying but if they're on your

00:25:02.640 side you're totally going to believe it so even though you might have thought to yourself oops i'm

00:25:08.160 sorry cat come down here come on gary don't step on that so even if you uh is that gary oh no it's

00:25:18.640 roman my other cat

00:25:22.080 so even if you thought that kamala was being pathetic and stupid and drunk

00:25:27.120 it totally works and by the way um she has an argument if she didn't have any argument

00:25:34.400 then maybe it wouldn't work but the argument is that if you looked at the number of counties won

00:25:40.560 it's an overwhelming win for trump if you looked at the uh um electoral college nice solid win for

00:25:49.440 trump but if you looked at just the total number of people who voted yeah you might be within what is

00:25:55.200 it one or two percent or something so she's going to argue the overall percentage number and then say

00:26:01.840 well there you go closest election i don't even know if that's true it doesn't need to be true by the

00:26:06.640 the way it only needs to make you think it was really close and then you don't need to know the

00:26:12.240 details so totally successful persuasion even though it's it's at least half bullshit

00:26:21.920 well the cdc has updated their recommendation for

00:26:25.520 vaccines so so to speak and they want you want kids to get the chickenpox vaccine separate

00:26:32.480 from the the big bunch of vaccines that they usually get

00:26:38.320 that usually includes chickenpox um so apparently there's some new information that says that if you

00:26:46.400 get them separately i think you wait a little bit for one but i can't remember which one if you wait for

00:26:52.720 one um you avoid some very well-known specific health problems so is that an upgrade that do you call

00:27:02.320 this uh rfk jr win is that a win for maha i'm gonna say yes because there's nothing we want more from

00:27:11.920 rfk jr than to say can you show us the science all right now that you've showed us the science can you

00:27:19.040 make sure that your policies conform to the science and what did rfk jr do he showed you the science and

00:27:26.240 then he modified the policy to match the science that ladies and gentlemen is what we asked for

00:27:33.680 that is why you like a president trump that he can have the balls to pick an rfk jr this is everything

00:27:42.000 this is everything now well you know is there any chance that later they'll modify it and you know

00:27:47.440 there'll be a new study sure but this is still what we want them to be doing this is right on point

00:27:54.400 for what we hoped they would do so this is all good news and then on top of that they've updated the

00:28:01.680 covid booster recommendation to um they don't recommend it for all adults now so it's only

00:28:09.360 the covid booster is only recommended for people who are i guess over 65 or have some specific health

00:28:17.200 issue that um they and their doctors decide makes sense so it's not even about the cdc now for the

00:28:24.160 for the covid it's very much about you and your doctor yeah you can still do what you want but it's

00:28:30.720 between you and your doctor i like that um trump is teasing according to adjust the news misty severi

00:28:39.600 is writing about this trump says he's considering invoking the quote insurrection act in portland

00:28:46.160 as you know trump wanted to send in the national guard to portland because he thinks there's too much

00:28:51.360 crime happening portland says no there's not too much crime there's just the right amount we'd like

00:28:56.880 to keep it this way or something like that and um but one way that trump could in theory overrule the

00:29:07.840 uh the local government and send in the national guard would be if it's an emergency and an emergency

00:29:14.400 would include something like an insurrection you know if there was a raging insurrection going on

00:29:20.160 then it would be totally legal for the federal government to send in troops but you would have

00:29:25.120 to say it's an insurrection now trump says it's not an insurrection it's not an emergency

00:29:30.720 it's just something that he'd like to do but he doesn't rule it out what what do i tell you about

00:29:36.800 the decisions that trump makes i told you that he's he's brilliant in persuasion and that one of the

00:29:44.320 things he does right all the time all the time is that if there are two ways you could go and one of

00:29:51.120 them would be described as strong as in maybe an authoritarian but the other way would be described

00:29:58.240 as you know weak he will always take strong even if weak is a better argument that does that make sense

00:30:07.280 he will always pick strong even if you think going weak is a better argument and here's why because

00:30:16.160 the specific argument matters a little you know does he or does he not go into portland that matters

00:30:22.720 but what matters way more than that is that he can create a pattern that says i'm always going to take

00:30:28.480 the the strong the strong position because remember he's got to convince all the other countries that

00:30:35.120 he's strong he's got to convince both sides of this country that he's strong so every time you see

00:30:40.640 trump just reflexively take the strong position even if you think it's the wrong decision even if you

00:30:48.560 think it's not entirely constitutional and if he tried it the supreme court would throw it out

00:30:54.320 it's still the right choice and only he can do that and well it's not true not only he but you would

00:31:01.440 have to be a real special personality to always take the strong side and pull it off and still pull

00:31:08.800 it off and he does it's kind of amazing all right um well you won't believe this um i i would like you

00:31:19.280 to hold your chins because you might get injured uh when i read you this new story your chin is going to

00:31:25.040 drop so far that it might come disconnected and then you know you'd have you'd be hospitalized so you don't

00:31:30.880 want that so everybody if you could just hold your chin when i tell you this shocking and surprising

00:31:37.520 news are you ready you won't believe this but another college president has been accused of

00:31:42.000 plagiarizing and being a huge racist against white people oh oh hold it hold it hold it all right all

00:31:51.200 all right i think the danger has passed all right got it okay now nobody saw that come

00:32:01.360 apparently the u.s federal government's going to take a 10 stake in something called trilogy

00:32:07.280 metals according to investing.com so and then get some warrants for some extra percentages and i guess what

00:32:15.200 they do is uh what do they do um some kind of metals some kind of rare rare metals which ones do to do

00:32:28.240 um seems like they should tell us right in this article which rare metals are getting it's not you know

00:32:33.520 it's the good stuff so that would be another 10 percent maybe 17.5 percent if if the warrants are used

00:32:42.320 and uh so i went to grok and i said if the u.s took a 10 equity stake in every company in the u.s that was

00:32:52.800 involved in rare earth minerals um what would that be worth in 10 years because i was wondering is this

00:33:00.560 so valuable these rare earths that even if you just get 10 percent that if you wait 10 years it's worth

00:33:07.120 you know five trillion dollars or something is that possible and that it would take an actual bite

00:33:12.960 out of the national debt and the answer is unfortunately it's in the tens of billions

00:33:20.240 so it's not in the trillions at all it's you know maybe up to 100 billion but you're not going to get

00:33:26.640 much more than that still it's free money do you do not want to take some free money if the if the

00:33:33.840 if the federal government can provide a service that it wouldn't necessarily have to do um it can

00:33:41.200 take some equity because it's not the government taking the equity it's me right it's you it the

00:33:47.840 government doesn't own it it's the people so yeah give me some damn equity all right trust and safety

00:33:55.520 is becoming a key driver of customer experience influencing how users engage how safe they feel and

00:34:02.560 ultimately how likely they are to return because i don't know about you but if i've had too many

00:34:08.080 bad experiences on a platform i'm definitely not rushing back for more this is the intersection

00:34:13.680 we're here to explore today tap to keep listening to how trust and safety redefined cx for brands like

00:34:19.680 tick tock trust pilot and more a conversation with in touch cx well apparently trump has not ruled out

00:34:27.760 but nor has he ruled in a pardon for glane maxwell and he was also asked about diddy and in his trumpian

00:34:36.320 way he did the perfect answer which is he hasn't looked into it it sounds like he will look into it

00:34:43.920 but he hasn't looked into it now what would happen if glane maxwell got a pardon what do you think that

00:34:51.360 would do to the mega world if glane maxwell got a pardon wouldn't you assume that she's agreed to

00:35:01.280 keep some secrets and that that would be the basis for getting the pardon would you assume that wouldn't

00:35:08.080 have proof i wouldn't have even smoking gun but i would kind of assume that somebody made a deal

00:35:16.880 wouldn't you so if you really want to stir things up and get people talking about this forever uh the

00:35:25.040 pardon would do it and by the way i don't have an opinion on whether it should be done or not

00:35:29.680 but um i would say yes to the pardon if it required her to talk and give up some names that maybe we

00:35:39.600 hadn't heard before so if we could learn something that the victims or the country needs to know

00:35:45.680 i'm not as concerned about punishing her um you know she's been punished a little bit um i'm not

00:35:52.720 as concerned about that as i am knowing what really happened now some of you would say the opposite you

00:35:58.560 say no punishment is the main the main thing you know even even if we don't find out what happened

00:36:04.800 you know you got to punish people for doing what she did i get it i get the argument but i put a little

00:36:09.920 bit more weight given that she's been public she's been punished somewhat you know not enough but

00:36:16.240 somewhat um i would look at what use we could get from her and if she could open the vault and tell us

00:36:23.920 all the things that we really care about really care about but wouldn't find out any other way

00:36:30.480 i would uh reluctantly be in favor of a pardon reluctantly and i i would never back off reluctant

00:36:39.040 but maybe maybe we'd have to see what we got in return and if it's only you know the government who

00:36:45.760 finds out what we got in return that's not good enough that the people got to know we got to know

00:36:51.680 if there's a deal made you got to tell us we're not going to put up with we made a secret deal with

00:36:57.760 the pedo that's that's not going to happen what about diddy it's hard for me to imagine that trump

00:37:05.520 would pardon diddy because i don't think diddy has anything to offer and uh he got a relatively

00:37:14.800 low sentence compared to what it could have been and he's young enough that if he gets out in four

00:37:21.200 years or maybe he would get out in two years you know time served good behavior he's already you know

00:37:28.240 so it might be like a two-year sentence for what looks like pretty bad behavior as far as we can tell

00:37:35.520 so i feel like trump would say you know what i feel like you can last two years and then

00:37:42.080 you know you've paid your you paid some of your debt and then i'm not in the line for explaining it

00:37:47.280 forever so i'm going to say maybe yes on maxwell but probably no on diddy that's that's my best guess

00:37:55.360 now if diddy is still there in three years might trump say i'll let you out in six months early

00:38:02.640 before the end of my term maybe maybe he'd have to have an argument i don't know what that argument

00:38:08.640 would be but can't rule it out well trump was commenting on greta tunberg uh she was

00:38:17.120 arrested in israel trying to uh trying to advocate for the palestinians and she was part of that

00:38:24.320 flotilla that went over there and they all got picked up and this is what trump said quote she's

00:38:30.080 just a troublemaker you mean she's no longer into the environment she's an anger mission problem i think

00:38:36.880 she should see a doctor if you ever watch her for a young person she's so angry she's so crazy no you

00:38:43.680 could have her you can have her she's just a troublemaker could that be more perfect that

00:38:54.160 that's exactly what i would want trump to say i i wanted to say those exact words

00:39:00.720 yeah but here's what i think um i feel like we keep ignoring although every now and then you'll hear

00:39:08.480 you know somebody like dr drew or uh jordan peterson bring it up uh that there might be a cluster b

00:39:15.840 personality type that seems to be concentrated in the democrat or at least left-leaning world

00:39:23.440 do you believe that so the cluster b are the people who are you know narcissists and you know they've got

00:39:29.600 they've got the kind of problems that bother other people the cluster bees are problems mental

00:39:35.440 problems that mostly bother other people you know like a narcissist the narcissist might be perfectly

00:39:41.120 happy but they bother other people so and we know that the democrats at least have massively more

00:39:49.360 mental health problems and massively more often they'll go to therapy and massively more often they'll

00:39:55.760 take uh antidepressants so it's really sort of a cluster b problem that pretends to be political

00:40:06.480 i think the politicians the elected politicians are not necessarily cluster b they're just you know

00:40:12.800 looking for power but they can't have power unless they treat all the cluster bees like they're serious

00:40:19.600 people that's how they get their power so you've got these these democrat leaders who are pretending that

00:40:27.440 these people who have serious mental health problems are just people with a different opinion

00:40:33.840 no they're not people with a different opinion they are legitimately mentally ill

00:40:38.800 but that's our politics today representative anna luna she was on danny jones podcast and she was talking about

00:40:51.280 influencers who are being paid to push narratives and i thought to myself i still don't know

00:40:58.560 even one influencer who pushed a narrative for money do you when i hear the names of the influencers

00:41:07.360 it's always these super young ones that i've never seen even once and they're usually on the left but

00:41:14.080 i don't know apparently this is a thing and i'll tell you again how in the world did nobody ever offer

00:41:19.840 to pay me for my opinion what's going on with that and they haven't not not even indirectly not in any way

00:41:27.600 whatsoever um not i've not had one conversation i've not been in the room with somebody who might have

00:41:33.760 offered just nothing and i'm thinking do they not know how much influence i have

00:41:41.920 i don't think they do i i feel like the entire right-leaning world is somewhat invisible to the

00:41:49.040 left in the same way that their world is invisible to me because when they talk about other influencers

00:41:55.760 i always say who who i never heard of that guy so uh i'm as blind to their side as they are to

00:42:04.000 to our side but if they haven't tried to influence me maybe they should try harder and no i'm not

00:42:11.040 going to take their money don't don't worry i'm not i'm not soliciting for money there's no way i'd do

00:42:16.960 that not there's not a chance in hell but i'm a little bit insulted i've not been offered it's sort of

00:42:23.040 like being a straight guy and you know one day you realize that no gay man has ever hit on you

00:42:30.560 have you ever had that experience like one day you'll just say wait a minute not a single gay guy

00:42:37.680 has ever hit on me well maybe i'm not gay but i kind of like them to want to don't don't you think

00:42:47.040 it'd be cool if they wanted to you know be kind of a compliment same thing all right um so here's the

00:42:56.480 question do you think that uh aipac the american group that lobbies in favor of israel um they would

00:43:07.600 say they they're lobbying in favor of the united states that's how they get away with the the pharaoh

00:43:12.240 stuff so what do you think are the rules for uh whether or not you're farah meaning that you have

00:43:20.320 to register as a foreign agent who's trying to influence america what do you think the rules are well

00:43:28.240 um i thought i wrote that down i definitely did

00:43:39.840 the rules are

00:43:43.040 all right here's the legal legal basis for uh a pack if if israel were paying uh a pack

00:43:51.920 a pack and then a pack were you know giving money to politicians that would be a far a problem

00:43:58.400 because that would be a foreign country using some americans to influence their uh their fate

00:44:06.320 however if the money doesn't come from israel but rather comes from billionaires um and other small

00:44:13.920 donors uh then as long as they're americans it's americans giving money to an american entity

00:44:20.720 a pack and that is not farrah because it's americans doing what americans want to do however

00:44:29.200 i think we'd all agree that israel is kind of a special case

00:44:33.120 and that if americans are giving money to a pack it's sort of they're doing it

00:44:39.280 for israel you know now they're doing it for themselves as well because they would

00:44:43.840 legitimately be supporters of israel they're not making it up they really are supporters

00:44:48.640 but if they're but if the purpose of it seems more beneficial to israel than it does to america

00:44:59.280 uh that's where it gets a little dicey but it's still completely legal

00:45:05.120 so i guess what matters is where the funding comes from so you got that um

00:45:10.400 um and that to me that seems that seems like uh technicality i think most of you would say the same

00:45:18.640 thing so there's no direct uh there's also no direct control of a pack by anybody who's an israeli

00:45:26.880 well anybody who lives in israel i don't know if there are any dual citizens but

00:45:30.880 um so they don't have anybody on the board who's an israeli trying to manipulate the board so that's

00:45:40.160 important so they're not getting money and they're not directly being run by somebody in israel and

00:45:48.560 apparently the apec falls better into another category so they just registered into this other

00:45:55.120 category called the lobbying disclosure act exemption and that allows a pack to disclose expenditures i

00:46:05.040 got this from grok by the way it allows a pack to disclose expenditures and contacts with congress

00:46:11.280 without full farra as long as it doesn't represent a foreign government directly so it's the directly part

00:46:18.160 that does a lot of work directly well how about uh if a pack wanted uh the u.s to help israel militarily

00:46:30.240 with gaza do you don't think that would be direct that's about as direct as you could get

00:46:37.520 but then you might say well that's just what everybody wants so it's not like you know it's not

00:46:42.720 like a pack is the one entity that wants israel to fight back against gaza or against the last

00:46:51.280 so anyway it gets kind of uh gets kind of murky this is what i'm saying

00:47:02.640 did you lock the front door check close the garage door yep installed window sensors smoke sensors and hd

00:47:08.240 cameras with night vision no and you set up credit card transaction alerts a secure vpn for a private

00:47:13.280 connection and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web uh i'm looking into

00:47:18.720 it stress less about security choose security solutions from telus for peace of mind at home

00:47:24.160 and online visit telus.com total security to learn more conditions apply

00:47:29.280 by the way today is not only october 7th the horrible uh anniversary of october 7th of course

00:47:40.080 but it is also the jewish holiday of it's the first day of uh sukkot i don't know if i'm saying

00:47:47.040 that right s-u-k-k-o-t which i've never heard of better known as the feast of tabernacles and so a lot

00:47:54.960 of your jewish co-workers are taking the day off today i guess they take the day off generally

00:48:01.440 speaking and part of the key observance and traditions are that the the sukkot is a hut

00:48:12.240 and it has to do with something in their ancient history where they built a hut and lived in it

00:48:17.120 so as part of this celebration many people build a little temporary hut

00:48:21.440 and then they hang out in it and maybe sleep in it overnight kind of cool um netanyahu saying that

00:48:30.960 iran could soon target the u.s with its missiles do you think netanyahu really wants a peace deal

00:48:39.280 how many of you think that netanyahu wants a peace deal that puts hamas a little bit you know having

00:48:46.560 a little bit of influence after it's all done i'm gonna say no i don't think he wants that at all so

00:48:55.920 we'll see how that goes trump says the gaza peace talks are going quote very well

00:49:00.960 so steve wickhoff and jared kushner are there to seal the deal as i've told you before they're both

00:49:06.720 closers so those are the best closers you could ever send that doesn't mean you'll get closed

00:49:13.040 but they're the best closers the u.s has probably ever had um so here's what i think i've said this

00:49:23.440 before but it's worth saying again um if you think that what's happening is negotiating i think you're

00:49:32.880 wrong if it looks like negotiating and they'll talk about it like negotiating and all the activities will

00:49:39.600 look like negotiating but that's not what's happening what's happening is the only way this

00:49:45.360 deal gets done because hamas has basically said yes but no and israel has basically said yes but no

00:49:52.720 and both places in both cases the but no part is the important part the yes part isn't even the

00:49:59.840 important part it's the but no that's the important part so how do you get a deal

00:50:04.720 when both sides have just said but no on the most important things such as do some us have a

00:50:12.640 you know seat at the table and do they get to keep some weapons that's not a small deal

00:50:16.640 and that's that's right right in the important part well um here's my frame i think that trump if he

00:50:28.880 negotiates even with these great closers wycoff and kushner if he negotiates he loses and it doesn't get

00:50:36.640 a deal but that's not what he's doing it only looks like negotiation here's what it really is

00:50:45.040 he's changing reality he's changing reality he's changing how we view reality itself he's basically

00:50:54.080 telling us this is going to happen even though all of our common sense and all of our experience says it

00:50:59.520 won't if he can convince us that this will happen despite all evidence to the contrary then he will

00:51:08.560 have reframed reality itself independent of any negotiating the negotiating can't get in there

00:51:17.600 you can't get there from here because neither side is going to give up the important things

00:51:22.320 the only way you can get to a good conclusion is you have to change reality in other words people have

00:51:29.600 to think they woke up in a different reality can he do it yes he can that's the fun part nobody else can

00:51:39.760 steve jobs could if you were you know if you were not dead he could could elon musk do it i don't know

00:51:47.200 i don't know maybe but trump can trump can change reality and anything short of reframing reality

00:51:55.920 itself is not going to get you there that you can't get there by negotiating it you you have to look

00:52:02.320 like you're negotiating but you got to change reality you got to change it big time and i believe

00:52:09.360 that that trump knows that like like nobody else knows it like he he's the one person who completely

00:52:15.920 understands that that the reason he's saying yes we're close even though objectively speaking it

00:52:22.160 doesn't look close to me doesn't look anywhere near close but as long as he keeps doing the kamala harris

00:52:29.520 thing you know it was a close as election that was the closest election that was the closest election

00:52:35.680 then you're going to start thinking maybe it was a close election and if he says we almost have a

00:52:40.400 deal we're so close we're oh it's just the details we almost have a deal we're totally going to get a deal

00:52:45.600 i think maybe the nobel prize would be in um it's going to look like this it's going to look like

00:52:50.560 this it's so exciting we're so close to a deal that's redefining reality and that's what he's doing

00:52:58.080 right in front of you he's redefining reality and if he refines it enough then the people who are hard

00:53:05.120 know about some of the details suddenly they wake up in a world where yes there's a more rational reason

00:53:13.200 or the more rational thing to do so if he pulls this off like i said it'll be the the greatest thing

00:53:19.920 the president ever did just ever 50 chance

00:53:27.360 all right what else

00:53:30.160 um

00:53:32.880 so i saw a post by jimmy door you all know jimmy door podcaster stand-up comedian

00:53:40.480 um he says that israel will definitely do false flags inside the us to i assume that means to get

00:53:49.600 us to stay unfriendly to hamas so that the you know the peace doesn't come the theory here is that

00:53:57.840 maybe netanyahu doesn't really want peace but he has to play along as long as he as long as he can

00:54:04.080 so it doesn't look like he's resisting and uh jimmy's theory is that israel would do a false flag

00:54:11.040 which would be an attack on u.s assets and or people um that would be blamed on hamas

00:54:19.920 and then that would give nanyahu a way to say see see you can't do a deal with them you know you just

00:54:26.400 have to destroy them now i went to grok and i said how often does a false flag happen has israel

00:54:35.040 ever done a false flag well i thought i knew but i did not so here's what grok said there were two

00:54:44.800 examples that you might call a false flag one was in 1954 called the again this is from grok so i don't

00:54:54.320 know if it's hallucinating or not um i should probably should have looked that up but it's

00:54:59.360 called the levon affair um it's and uh grok says it's quote the only confirmed false flag by israel

00:55:07.840 targeting u.s assets it's the only one now what did it do let's see orchestrated bomb attacks remember

00:55:15.520 1954 uh targeted as symbols of western influence um blah blah blah so this was uh the bad old days

00:55:26.240 um but apparently that's a confirmed false flag but it's also 1954 so i'm pretty old and that was

00:55:34.400 before i was born now now i'm seeing in the comments that you're saying scott you're forgetting

00:55:41.840 the obvious one the uss liberty incident in 1967 right so i'm looking in the comments and every one

00:55:50.080 of you saying oh you're forgetting the big one the more recent one it was the uss liberty a us ship

00:55:57.920 they got blown up however there are two hypotheses for what happened with that and they're not the same

00:56:07.200 one hypothesis is that it was always a false flag and that's what it was from the beginning to the

00:56:14.320 end it was just a false flag the other according to grok which i'd never heard before is that it might

00:56:20.800 have been a horrible thing that the israeli military did but it was to cover up the fact that they made a

00:56:27.440 mistake in attacking the ship so apparently they machine gunned the the lifeboats they machine gunned

00:56:36.000 the lifeboats and their thinking is that that was because they realized after they did the attack

00:56:42.560 that it wasn't the ship that they thought they wanted to attack and that once they realized they'd

00:56:47.040 blown up an american ship that they may have um this is speculative so this is unproven but the the

00:56:55.520 thought is that they might have said just the military not necessarily the government but the military

00:57:00.400 money said um we're gonna have to get rid of the evidence so you've got one that's confirmed according

00:57:08.480 to grok but it's in 1954 nothing since then nothing and the one that may or may not be true was 1967 that

00:57:20.480 was pretty long ago as well uh over 50 years ago and um so we don't know now i believe that

00:57:32.000 if this is like every other thing in the world the people who have a anti-israel bent will say scott

00:57:38.800 you fool that's obviously a false flag and the people who are more pro-israel are going to likely say

00:57:44.880 oh i didn't realize it was ambiguous you know either way it's terrible so it's not remember it's not

00:57:52.640 excusing israel if the real answer is that they machine gunned the the survivors

00:58:01.440 so if you think that there's there's one story that makes them look good but another story that

00:58:06.640 doesn't that's not happening no there are two stories that make them look like terrible or at least you

00:58:12.720 know the military who happen to be operating in that specific area not the whole country of course

00:58:19.600 so i don't know so that that's your context do you think jimmy door is correct that israel would do a

00:58:27.840 false flag attack given that there's always some chance they get caught because if you're doing any

00:58:34.720 kind of sneaky stuff you can never really be sure if everybody is on your side that's in on the plot

00:58:42.480 and that nobody's listening to your digital communications can you imagine israel doing a

00:58:47.840 false flag while trump is president and getting caught so here's my take the the risk reward analysis

00:58:59.120 of doing something while trump is president a false flag and maybe getting caught no matter how clever you

00:59:05.360 are i know musad is really good at this but you'd always have a chance to get it caught

00:59:09.440 there's no freaking way that netanyahu is dumb enough to take that chance

00:59:16.800 no way unless you can come up with some kind of false flag that nobody could ever catch

00:59:23.200 then maybe but i'm going to say that seems deeply unlikely so i i disagree with the false

00:59:29.920 flag but we might see something we think is one so that's possible all right let's talk about some

00:59:40.720 other countries let's see how australia is doing apparently deloitte uh will refund australian

00:59:47.680 government for their ai hallucination filled report or stack that goes writing about this kyle orland

00:59:54.880 so apparently deloitte you know the big accounting firm um did this major probably very expensive study

01:00:03.200 but it was just made up by ai and they found out it was all hallucinated

01:00:07.680 bullshit so they asked for their money back

01:00:12.160 good job deloitte how how could you be a how in the world could you be one of these high-end consultants

01:00:21.120 for deloitte and not know the ai hallucinates are you the last person in the world who doesn't know

01:00:27.200 you can't do a report based on this i mean i just did one right in front of you using grok

01:00:32.640 but i think grok is better on historical things i think it's much less better if it can't look it up

01:00:41.200 the historical stuff it can just look up so i feel like it's better but i would take a fact check on

01:00:46.720 that if that's not the case well mexico has got a bill according to reclaim the net dan freeth is

01:00:54.000 writing that mexico is proposing a bill that would put you in prison for ai memes that mock public figures

01:01:02.400 great like i need one more reason not to go to mexico good luck and then ukraine of course said it

01:01:11.120 struck more russian ammunition plant an oil terminal and a weapons depot and uh here's what you don't

01:01:18.320 hear number of human casualties have you noticed that that the ukraine war this major world war three

01:01:26.480 people want to call it and we don't talk about casualties and i think the reason is there are not

01:01:32.080 that many it's like a handful per day and that all the real work is being done by the drones taking out

01:01:39.360 big infrastructure and facilities i think it's turned into the drone the the robot energy war

01:01:46.400 it's sort of an energy war and it's sort of a robot war but it's a robot energy war

01:01:50.560 because the robots will mostly be attacking other robots and energy projects so it's a robot energy war

01:02:00.000 and let's say ukraine now has approved 80 domestically produced drones so ukraine just the

01:02:06.720 little country of ukraine knows how to make 80 different kinds of drones holy cow according to

01:02:13.200 euro maiden olena makina um and the domestic production has jumped 40 percent you know i've

01:02:21.440 told you before that whoever can make the the most and best drones is going to rule the future so

01:02:29.520 apparently ukraine this is making a good step to being the future because ukraine will be better

01:02:36.080 at drones than the u.s is the u.s can't make that many drones at the moment maybe someday but i think

01:02:42.480 we're we're way behind all right ladies and gentlemen that is all i wanted to talk about today did you have

01:02:50.000 any questions anything i didn't answer if you joined late yesterday i did have to go to the emergency room

01:02:56.400 to get some mris and some ct scans got some cancer tumors that were bothering me greatly but we'll get

01:03:04.800 that under control and uh but i feel good now so at the moment it doesn't hurt to sit down walking hurts

01:03:13.680 so i'll try not to walk but i got better meds so i can just take some painkillers if it hurts

01:03:18.320 and so today is much better than yesterday much much better for me all right everybody i'm going

01:03:26.080 to say a few words to my beloved um subscribers on locals the rest of you thank you so much for

01:03:33.440 joining i'm glad you could join and i hope i see you tomorrow

01:03:48.320 okay

01:04:18.320 Thank you.

01:04:48.320 Thank you.

01:05:18.320 Thank you.

01:05:48.320 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 07, 2025

Episode 2981 CWSA 10⧸07⧸25

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