Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3012 CWSA 11⧸08⧸25

00:00:00.620 It took me a few minutes to find the cursor.

00:00:05.580 I literally couldn't find the cursor to go live.

00:00:09.780 I was complaining before the show when I was talking to the locals' people separately.

00:00:17.400 And private load.

00:00:20.180 I was complaining about somebody designing a black interface, which is what the Rumble 1.00

00:00:25.460 studio is.

00:00:26.160 It's like a black interface.

00:00:27.720 The background is mostly black.

00:00:30.200 And the cursor is black. 0.63

00:00:34.320 So the whole time I'm like, where's that freaking cursor? 0.83

00:00:36.900 Where's that freaking cursor? 0.89

00:00:39.480 It's time for my show. 0.85

00:00:41.720 I need a cursor.

00:00:43.700 So if you're listening, Rumble, people with old eyes cannot tell the difference between 1.00

00:00:49.840 the cursor color and the background color, which makes the interface really hard to use

00:00:55.420 if you're over a certain age.

00:00:57.920 I think it's age.

00:00:58.780 I don't know what else it would be.

00:01:01.720 All right.

00:01:02.240 Comments are working.

00:01:04.320 We've got everything now.

00:01:07.720 Good morning, everybody.

00:01:10.880 And welcome to the highlight of human civilization.

00:01:13.120 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time.

00:01:16.900 But if you'd like to take a chance of lifting this situation to the highest elevation, something

00:01:24.620 that humans can't even understand with their tiny, shiny human brains, well, if you want

00:01:29.800 that, all you need for that is a cup or mug or a glass of tankard shells or steinic emptying

00:01:34.920 jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:38.740 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:40.560 I like coffee.

00:01:41.380 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of dopamine here today.

00:01:45.820 The thing that makes everything better is called the simultaneous sip and happens now.

00:01:49.980 Go.

00:01:50.160 Ah, very good.

00:01:56.280 Very good.

00:01:58.980 Well, I don't know about you, but all morning I've been sitting here thinking, what is today's

00:02:04.500 date?

00:02:04.880 If only I had some kind of a calendar device that I could keep on my desk at all times and

00:02:10.760 entertain me and also tell me valuable information about what today is.

00:02:16.400 It's called the Dilbert Calendar.

00:02:17.920 It's available now only on Amazon.

00:02:21.200 And you've got to be in America.

00:02:22.340 I'm sorry if you're in Kazakhstan.

00:02:24.280 You cannot buy this.

00:02:26.400 You'd want it.

00:02:27.440 Oh, man, you'd want it.

00:02:28.400 But you can't buy it.

00:02:29.380 No.

00:02:30.060 You cannot go to Amazon Kazakhstan and buy this.

00:02:33.680 Only America. 0.53

00:02:37.360 It's made in America, too.

00:02:39.340 And it has a comic on both sides this year.

00:02:43.380 The Dilbert Reborn, the spicy ones are on the back so you don't alarm your coworkers.

00:02:49.440 And then also, we're going to start out, as tradition requires, with a reframe from my

00:02:57.460 book, Reframe Your Brain, the best, most important book in your whole life.

00:03:03.680 So here's one of the best reframes for me.

00:03:07.320 I just love this one.

00:03:09.640 All right.

00:03:11.240 The usual frame is that whatever you think of as your ego is you.

00:03:17.040 You are not your ego.

00:03:20.680 Because if you're protecting your ego, you're actually protecting your enemy.

00:03:24.680 Your ego is your enemy.

00:03:27.120 Elon Musk said this recently in a podcast.

00:03:30.780 He basically said ego is the enemy.

00:03:33.100 Your ego is the enemy.

00:03:34.220 If you won't do a thing because you think, oh, that's beneath me, but it needs to get done,

00:03:41.060 well, that's not a good strategy.

00:03:43.380 So if you can learn to eliminate your ego, you can hire people who are better at a job

00:03:48.600 than you are.

00:03:50.300 Have you ever worked with somebody who refused to hire somebody who was smarter than them?

00:03:55.880 I have.

00:03:56.480 I've worked with somebody who wouldn't hire somebody who was smarter than they were.

00:04:03.060 How do you think that worked out?

00:04:04.840 I mean, just take a guess.

00:04:06.040 How did that work out?

00:04:07.240 Yeah, exactly like you think.

00:04:09.000 So get rid of your ego first, whatever that takes.

00:04:12.340 I recommend things like the Dale Carnegie course or anything that gets you in an embarrassing

00:04:16.740 situation.

00:04:18.440 So embarrassment is not something you should avoid.

00:04:21.660 It's something you should practice.

00:04:23.160 Yes, I learned that from Dale Carnegie.

00:04:26.420 Let me say that again because that's the key point.

00:04:30.600 You ready?

00:04:33.080 Your ego is something you should look to destroy and you should look to embarrass yourself as

00:04:39.180 often as possible because that's how you build that superpower.

00:04:42.960 The more you embarrass yourself, the more you get used to it until you realize, whoa, I didn't

00:04:48.240 die any of those times. 0.73

00:04:50.040 All right, after the show today, Owen Gregorian will be hosting his after party on Spaces.

00:04:56.260 All you need to do to find that is go to Owen Gregorian, just do a search on his name and

00:05:03.380 you'll see the link.

00:05:05.120 So it will be on Spaces.

00:05:06.220 That's the audio only feature on X.

00:05:10.080 I wonder if there's any science that they didn't need to do because they could have just

00:05:17.500 asked Scott.

00:05:18.100 Oh, here's some.

00:05:20.160 Eric Nolan, writing for the SciPost.

00:05:23.380 I love Eric.

00:05:24.660 I wonder if anybody has ever told Eric Nolan that I mention him almost every live stream.

00:05:31.460 I do like his content.

00:05:35.680 But it's just funny that he's always on the list of things you could have asked me.

00:05:41.600 All right, here's the latest.

00:05:43.540 There's a study that says that higher fluid intelligence is associated with more structured

00:05:49.460 cognitive maps.

00:05:51.740 Let me explain what that means.

00:05:53.480 In nerd talk, fluid intelligence and cognitive maps are two kind of things that are important

00:06:02.400 to your brain function and how smart you are.

00:06:04.860 I can simplify this.

00:06:06.740 You want a simplification?

00:06:07.780 Smart people are smart.

00:06:11.620 No, really. 0.64

00:06:13.400 If you find somebody who's really smart in one domain, the odds of them being dumb in the 0.60

00:06:19.240 other domains are rather low.

00:06:21.640 Now, it's possible that you could be a genius in, I don't know, math, but bad at something

00:06:28.760 else.

00:06:29.340 It could happen.

00:06:30.780 But generally speaking, if you're just looking for the averages, yeah, generally speaking,

00:06:36.700 smart people are smart in general.

00:06:39.240 All right, here's another one.

00:06:42.900 This is also from SciPost.

00:06:44.660 Vladimir Hedra is writing that women, this has been tested now, women can read age, adiposity,

00:06:52.620 and testosterone levels from a man's face.

00:06:55.560 Now, adiposity is fat, basically.

00:06:59.060 They can tell if you're overweight by your face.

00:07:01.820 Did you know that you could tell somebody who's overweight by looking at their face?

00:07:06.120 Yes, you did.

00:07:06.760 You didn't even have to ask Scott.

00:07:09.660 Did you know that women can identify more testosterone?

00:07:14.040 Maybe they don't think of it as more testosterone.

00:07:16.840 But when asked to identify it, that they're way above average.

00:07:21.320 Yes, you knew that because the men with high testosterone look like me, don't they?

00:07:26.720 I have the classic high testosterone chin.

00:07:31.100 If you want to know what it looks like, it's that.

00:07:33.440 Now, I also have the high testosterone male pattern baldness.

00:07:40.120 So, basically, I have every sign you could have.

00:07:43.900 I have sort of an angular face.

00:07:46.120 It's all obviously testosterone.

00:07:48.600 Now, at the moment, I have no testosterone at all because I'm on the testosterone blockers.

00:07:54.080 But, you know, I had already been fully formed by then.

00:07:57.800 So, yes, anybody, women or men, we can all tell who has the most testosterone.

00:08:04.240 The government of Denmark has announced what they call an agreement.

00:08:12.860 I don't even know what this means.

00:08:15.020 Why is it an agreement as opposed to a law or something?

00:08:18.200 They announced an agreement to ban access to social media for anyone under 15 in Denmark.

00:08:25.640 I assume that just means the residents, not if you're passing through.

00:08:31.780 I don't know.

00:08:32.200 Maybe if you're passing through, too.

00:08:34.820 But they're concerned that young people are getting too caught up in the online world.

00:08:39.560 What do you think of that?

00:08:40.840 Do you think that, first of all, that will work or will they just do VPNs?

00:08:46.420 Can't the kids just do a VPN and suddenly nobody knows who's what?

00:08:51.400 Well, it feels like the kids will get around that, but maybe it'll reduce it.

00:08:56.180 I like it directionally, but it's worth testing.

00:09:00.360 So, I won't criticize the details because this is definitely the sort of thing that we should be looking at testing.

00:09:06.940 If they're going to test it in Denmark, good.

00:09:09.840 Do that first.

00:09:12.380 So, I saw a headline that Starbucks was having some problems because they introduced a new, very cool-looking cup.

00:09:21.400 For coffee.

00:09:22.800 And the coffee cup looks like a cute little bear.

00:09:26.440 A little bear.

00:09:27.680 And apparently it's so popular that people are arguing about it, you know, to get the last one.

00:09:32.920 And they're semi-fighting in line.

00:09:35.720 And Starbucks actually had to release an apology because their product was so good that it caused trouble.

00:09:45.420 Now, that's pretty good. 0.99

00:09:48.140 Whoever designed that stupid little bear into a cup, I said to myself, well, there's no way you'd get in a fight over a cup that looks like a bear. 1.00

00:09:59.620 That's not going to happen. 1.00

00:10:01.020 And then I looked at the story and clicked on it.

00:10:03.280 And I saw the little bear.

00:10:04.420 And as soon as I saw the little bear, I said, oh, well, now I totally get it.

00:10:10.860 I would fight over that little bear.

00:10:14.080 I probably wouldn't have a fist fight over it.

00:10:16.320 But I might, you know, if one of my young kids really absolutely had to have that bear and it was the last one and it was something I could do to make it happen, maybe I'd fight over it.

00:10:28.520 But it's actually a really good cup, like crazy good cup.

00:10:32.260 You should see it.

00:10:32.960 It's just really good.

00:10:34.180 So whoever designed that, A+.

00:10:36.620 I saw this on a Colin Rugg post.

00:10:40.000 It's their most successful piece of merchandise.

00:10:45.400 Well, Jesse Waters has a, I'll call it a scoop.

00:10:50.220 He says his sources, I think he said this yesterday, his sources in the Senate say the moderate Democrats are about to cave on keeping the government open and that they might vote to open it.

00:11:03.000 However, at the same time, at the same time, Minority Leader Schumer has a counteroffer.

00:11:14.280 He says the Democrats are ready to clear the way to quickly pass a government funding bill that includes health care affordability.

00:11:21.940 Now, I think in this context, what he wants to do is just extend the Obamacare tax credits for a year while the Republicans and Democrats work out, you know, how to improve it.

00:11:36.660 Isn't that reasonable?

00:11:38.600 Doesn't that seem to you like a completely reasonable compromise?

00:11:42.080 Because they didn't want to open the government at all unless they got something in return.

00:11:46.220 So if you want to give them something in return, the best thing you can give somebody in a negotiation is what?

00:11:54.600 If you're negotiating and you're going to give somebody something so that, you know, you've compromised, what's the best thing to give them?

00:12:04.720 The answer is nothing.

00:12:06.180 The best thing to give them is nothing.

00:12:08.300 Do you know what this is?

00:12:09.840 It's nothing.

00:12:12.400 It's nothing.

00:12:13.160 Because you wouldn't be able to fix Obamacare in seven weeks or whatever we have before we have to have a real law. 0.99

00:12:20.160 It's going to take a year to fix it.

00:12:22.780 Whatever the problem is, you think that the government could get it fixed in less than a year?

00:12:27.820 So my take on this is all he's offering is what was going to happen anyway, no matter what anybody wanted to happen.

00:12:35.580 In the real world, this takes a year.

00:12:38.440 Am I wrong?

00:12:39.000 So really what he's offering is what was going to happen anyway.

00:12:43.860 Hey, this is going to take longer than you thought.

00:12:46.180 Why don't we do it right instead of slapping it together?

00:12:49.520 Now, if your take is, no, I'm not going to spend one more dime, you are going to spend the dime anyway.

00:12:55.940 You just didn't know it.

00:12:57.660 If I could prevent you from having to spend one more dime on Obamacare, I'd help you.

00:13:03.300 I'd do it.

00:13:03.860 But there's no path to that.

00:13:06.340 There's definitely a path to spending more than we want to spend for one more year, but getting serious about fixing it.

00:13:14.800 I don't even know how you would lower the cost, but smarter people would be involved than me.

00:13:20.660 So I'm looking at your comments because I'm actually very interested.

00:13:26.720 Sorry, I'm in such pain in my one arm.

00:13:28.640 Nope, I'm on the wrong page here.

00:13:33.760 I thought I was looking at your comments, but they were the old ones.

00:13:37.320 Here we go.

00:13:39.260 Now we're going. 1.00

00:13:40.320 Damn it. 0.99

00:13:44.280 Just looking at your comments. 1.00

00:13:45.580 What is the next crisis?

00:13:47.040 Brings us to the next crisis.

00:13:50.940 Your geek bar just kicked in.

00:13:53.480 You do two years.

00:13:55.640 One year is reasonable.

00:13:56.640 So it makes us look bad at midterms when we once again say no to subsidies.

00:14:05.380 Does it?

00:14:06.700 Do you think there's a clever midterm play that the Democrats are doing?

00:14:11.580 I don't know.

00:14:14.400 The COVID subsidies, which don't apply.

00:14:18.920 All right.

00:14:19.480 All right.

00:14:20.280 Well, so my current take is that the Democrats are trying to find a ego-free, we didn't really lose way to get past the government closure.

00:14:34.240 This looks reasonable to me.

00:14:36.540 It looks reasonable.

00:14:38.260 You know, if Trump negotiated it down to nine months or six months or something, also reasonable.

00:14:42.700 But we now have entered the, what I would call the common sense zone, where what the Democrats are offering sounds like, but you know, there's a lot of nuance and all this stuff.

00:14:57.180 I could be wrong about where the details are going.

00:14:59.840 It sounds like they're at least creeping into something that would be reasonable.

00:15:04.240 You know, giving somebody a little extra time to do something that's really complicated, that's just a reasonable ask.

00:15:12.100 I don't know how you argue against that.

00:15:14.540 But we will.

00:15:16.340 Apparently, 30 subpoenas have gone out in Florida to some of the people who were involved in the Russia gate hoax.

00:15:25.140 People such as Adam Schiff and John Brennan and Lisa Page and Peter Strzok, I guess 20-some other people.

00:15:34.100 Do you think any of those subpoenas are going to turn into anything like jail time?

00:15:37.700 How many of you believe that based on everything you've lived through, everything you've seen, everything you know about the government, that the logical end state here is that these people who clearly were doing something inappropriate, I don't know what's legal and what's not legal, I'm not good at that, but clearly something monstrously inappropriate, just monstrously overthrowing the government.

00:16:04.820 That's pretty bad.

00:16:06.020 But do you think they'll be – I just don't feel like they're going to be punished.

00:16:11.980 It just doesn't feel like that's where it's going.

00:16:14.840 It might go there.

00:16:16.500 It might.

00:16:17.800 It doesn't feel like it.

00:16:19.440 I don't know why.

00:16:20.660 I think it's just pattern recognition, right?

00:16:23.020 I've seen too many times we've been disappointed, so it just feels like, you know, Charlie Brown in the football every day.

00:16:30.960 All right, we'll watch that one.

00:16:32.320 All right, here's one we're going to do a little fact checking on, okay?

00:16:37.740 I want you to – we're going to do, is this real or not real?

00:16:41.240 So you all know that Nancy Pelosi got very rich trading stocks during her time in office, and her percentage gains were way better than other people.

00:16:53.660 Now, when she's challenged about that, and obviously it looks like insider trading, which is legal, completely legal for people in Congress.

00:17:04.840 They're the only ones that can do it.

00:17:06.160 They can actually do insider trading, and it's legal.

00:17:09.520 So some say that's what she was doing, but she denies it.

00:17:15.360 Now, the reason I haven't been much on this story, you've probably noticed.

00:17:19.400 I know you've been asking me to cover this more forever, and I don't.

00:17:23.400 It's because I don't treat things that are legal the same way I treat things that are illegal.

00:17:28.580 So for the same reason that there are other things I say, well, it's legal, such as pardons.

00:17:36.360 We're going to talk about a pardon in a little bit.

00:17:39.000 I don't like pardons, but they're designed such that nobody is supposed to like them, and they're totally legal, and they're transparent, mostly.

00:17:49.660 Even if they're not, it's still legal.

00:17:51.060 So if something is totally legal, I just don't feel like bitching about it is worth the time.

00:17:59.520 But I've got a question about what's real, what's true.

00:18:04.640 So apparently her current death worth is close to $300 million, but in 2024, it was over $300 million in 2024.

00:18:16.740 Went down a little bit, it looks like.

00:18:18.100 But she beat the averages by a million miles. 0.95

00:18:22.440 But here's the part I wanted to suggest.

00:18:26.060 When asked to explain why she did so well, she says she's not the one who does the trading.

00:18:32.020 She says her husband is the one who does the stock trades.

00:18:36.480 Now, is that what you would say?

00:18:41.660 How is that a good alibi?

00:18:43.460 Don't we just assume that all she'd have to do is tell her husband what to buy?

00:18:50.140 That's no alibi at all.

00:18:52.280 Why would you go with such a weak alibi?

00:18:55.120 Oh, my husband does the trading.

00:18:57.160 Who would do that?

00:18:59.140 In what world would you give the weakest alibi?

00:19:04.320 There's only one world that you would do that.

00:19:07.020 You didn't have a better alibi.

00:19:08.360 If you had a better one, you'd use it, right?

00:19:11.860 As in, oh, I'll give you an example.

00:19:15.380 Let's say that most of her gains was in one or two stocks. 0.53

00:19:19.180 And she said, you know what?

00:19:20.600 I was watching the same news you were.

00:19:23.240 And to me, it looked like AI was going to be big.

00:19:25.540 So I bought a bunch of NVIDIA early.

00:19:27.600 And that's about, you know, that's about 30% of all my gains.

00:19:30.820 But then I also got lucky and then tell a story basically of how she did, in fact, make ordinary investments.

00:19:39.500 And they just happened to be good.

00:19:41.420 And they did unusually well.

00:19:43.540 Now, I'm not saying that's really what happened.

00:19:46.100 I'm saying if that is what happened, why wouldn't you go with that?

00:19:50.760 That would be an entirely, at least believable.

00:19:55.160 I mean, she could prove when she bought something and when she sold it. 0.62

00:19:58.920 You could look at the headlines and you could say, didn't we all know that that was going to be good?

00:20:03.500 Or did she have some special access?

00:20:06.200 Now, it does seem guilty as hell when she just says, my husband does the trading.

00:20:12.420 Now, he's professional.

00:20:14.680 So if he does trading, he should do better than other people, right?

00:20:18.760 Maybe not that better.

00:20:20.520 Not that much better.

00:20:22.420 So, yeah, that looks like it's exactly what it looks like.

00:20:24.900 It's just a massive bunch of insider trading.

00:20:28.320 Or she's very bad at alibis.

00:20:30.680 One of the two.

00:20:32.700 Apparently, Trump has reached some kind of $100 billion trade deal with Uzbekistan.

00:20:38.360 Thank God.

00:20:39.980 We've all been waiting for this one.

00:20:42.380 It's the big one.

00:20:43.660 Uzbekistan, finally.

00:20:45.640 Finally.

00:20:47.220 Do you believe that it's a $100 billion deal?

00:20:50.000 Well, first of all, it's over 10 years.

00:20:52.460 So, more like $10 billion.

00:20:53.720 But it's a small place.

00:20:55.120 36 million people are there.

00:20:57.480 However, every single day, as I've been telling you for a long time, every day that Trump can make one of these trade deals, and there are a lot of countries left, it makes it look like progress, doesn't it?

00:21:10.280 I mean, it looks like something good happened.

00:21:14.000 And if he just keeps rolling these up, like, today is Uzbekistan.

00:21:18.580 Maybe tomorrow is Kazakhstan. 0.98

00:21:20.740 The day after that is Elbonia.

00:21:22.860 It's just going to look like he's getting a lot done.

00:21:25.000 Which he is.

00:21:25.600 The name of the Uzbekistan president is Shavekat.

00:21:36.660 S-H-A-V-K-A-T. 1.00

00:21:39.940 Shave the cat.

00:21:41.520 All right.

00:21:42.180 I like him already.

00:21:44.200 All right.

00:21:44.740 Here's a story you all want me to talk about.

00:21:46.880 Blaze Media has a pretty big breaking news scoop.

00:21:54.700 So, they're investigative journalist Steve Baker of Blaze Media.

00:21:59.800 Apparently, he worked with some entities that can do gait analysis, which is the gait is how you walk, you know, the specific way you walk.

00:22:09.280 And the claim is that using this gait analysis, that they've identified a woman who planted the pipe bomb on January 6th.

00:22:19.540 Remember, the pipe bomb planter was on video, but you couldn't see any face.

00:22:24.500 Well, you can see the body and you can see him walk.

00:22:26.920 We thought it was a man, probably.

00:22:28.940 But it's a woman. 1.00

00:22:29.800 And the claim is that the odds, if you add together the fact that the gait analysis is usually in the 90% accuracy, you add to that some human intelligence, they pop the odds that he has identified the correct person at around 98%.

00:22:50.520 That's a high number.

00:22:52.620 Now, do you believe that?

00:22:54.200 The other thing that sort of raises your eyebrow is that the person named was a U.S. Capitol Police officer.

00:23:03.440 Uh-oh.

00:23:04.600 Shawnee Kirkhoff.

00:23:06.040 Where do you think she works now? 1.00

00:23:08.260 Let's see.

00:23:08.760 She's accused, just accused, this is an allegation only, of planting that pipe bomb under the role of being a U.S. Capitol Police officer.

00:23:17.820 Where does she work now? 1.00

00:23:20.760 Take a guess.

00:23:22.860 Where did she get promoted to? 0.99

00:23:26.320 It's a place called the CIA.

00:23:29.540 That's right. 0.98

00:23:30.780 If she had moved to anywhere on the whole fucking planet except the CIA, I think I would have dismissed this. 0.98

00:23:38.200 But really? 0.99

00:23:40.540 Really?

00:23:42.580 All right.

00:23:43.960 But now I'm going to give you my BS filter test. 0.90

00:23:49.540 Remember, I've given you lots of ways to find out if something is bullshit or real.

00:23:55.880 What would you expect to see if this were real?

00:24:00.200 Meaning that it was a real thing and you could tell by somebody's walk that it was them.

00:24:05.140 What would you expect that you, the public, would be shown?

00:24:11.040 I would expect I would see two videos.

00:24:14.560 One video of the person walking on January 6th, which is available.

00:24:19.420 But then secondly, I would expect that the public would have seen by now a video of her walking in her daily life.

00:24:27.400 So that you and I can look at it and say, yeah, that looks like the same walk.

00:24:32.880 Now, we don't have to be computers.

00:24:35.140 To recognize that somebody has a distinctive walk.

00:24:38.780 Right?

00:24:39.880 But what would happen if the entire claim is based on comparing two videos and the best that you can get is you know that somebody talked to somebody who talked to somebody who saw the videos and says that they're the same person?

00:24:54.260 And secondly, how do they know even who to look for?

00:24:57.360 How in the world do you find that one person?

00:25:00.920 If what you're doing is searching all the people in the world that you have some kind of gate analysis for?

00:25:07.140 I don't know how they collected it.

00:25:08.900 Maybe they collected it from public cameras or something.

00:25:12.300 How in the world would you know who the person was to even check their walk?

00:25:18.580 So I'm going to put this down as the not credible.

00:25:22.840 I'm going to put this down as the not credible.

00:25:23.840 Sorry.

00:25:23.960 Sorry.

00:25:24.040 Sorry.

00:25:24.440 Sorry.

00:25:25.640 Sorry.

00:25:25.680 Sorry.

00:25:25.720 Sorry.

00:25:25.760 Sorry.

00:25:26.320 I do think Glenn Beck is credible.

00:25:28.400 And I'm sure that this investigative journalist has a good reputation, Steve Baker.

00:25:35.740 But if you can't cross the bar to show me the only thing I care about, which is the two videos next to each other and how the hell did you get the one of them that wasn't from January 6th?

00:25:48.000 Like, why would you even have any of that?

00:25:51.120 So the questions are bigger than the answers.

00:25:56.160 So I'm not buying this one.

00:25:58.080 I'm going to say this does not make the sale.

00:26:00.600 Now, if you're new to me, you think I just said it wasn't true, right?

00:26:05.360 Is that right?

00:26:06.720 Did anybody hear me say it wasn't true?

00:26:08.680 I didn't say that.

00:26:10.680 I use the word credible very carefully.

00:26:14.280 Credible means, you know, maybe the lawyer made the case.

00:26:18.640 It doesn't mean it's true.

00:26:20.680 It doesn't mean it's false.

00:26:22.400 But this is not credible as presented.

00:26:26.160 Do you remember when Dinesh D'Souza made some claims about the people dropping things off in drop boxes?

00:26:35.360 And do you remember what I said about that?

00:26:37.560 If you can't show me at least a video or two of the same person dropping multiple things in these boxes, I don't think you really have anything.

00:26:47.120 Because that's the only thing that would have convinced me.

00:26:49.720 And then I think in the end we did not get those videos.

00:26:53.640 So this is sort of reminding me of that.

00:26:56.080 If there's one thing that matters, show me the video.

00:26:59.360 It's the one thing we don't have.

00:27:01.600 Hmm.

00:27:02.840 Sketchy.

00:27:04.720 So it could be true.

00:27:07.440 It could be true.

00:27:08.880 So let me say that as clearly as possible.

00:27:10.840 It could be true.

00:27:12.720 It's just not hitting the credibility level that I would expect.

00:27:18.400 Anyway.

00:27:21.680 But we'll wait to hear more about that.

00:27:23.080 Some of it just might be I'm not as up to date on it as I should be.

00:27:27.320 So.

00:27:28.160 But the people, the people involved are all credible as far as I know.

00:27:33.880 Um, are you, would you be surprised to know that some people are questioning some of the election results from last week?

00:27:41.840 The special election, the three governors?

00:27:44.480 Well, it turns out, according to PJ Media and Matt Moragolis, who's writing about this, there's a pollster who's looking at the numbers.

00:27:53.160 And apparently one of the, it was the New Jersey race, the winner won by a surprising margin, a margin that nobody, nobody predicted.

00:28:03.200 It just suddenly the polls stopped working for that one race, they worked for the other races, but the polls just didn't work for that New Jersey one.

00:28:10.880 Do you know why the polls didn't work for the New Jersey race?

00:28:15.240 Well, the claim, and again, I, who knows is a claim.

00:28:20.840 Um, the claim is that 500,000 Democrats suddenly materialized after not voting in the last three gubernatorial elections.

00:28:32.520 Is there anything else you need to know that half a million people suddenly were Democrats and suddenly voted, whereas they hadn't voted in the last three elections?

00:28:42.640 And there was nothing really that, but then you say, but Scott, maybe they just registered a lot of Democrats.

00:28:49.040 No, no, that didn't happen.

00:28:53.080 Just half a million people just appeared.

00:28:55.640 And it turns out that they mostly voted in the same direction.

00:29:00.120 So now we watched so many claims being made about 2020 and none of them, as far as I know, none of them panned out,

00:29:10.600 at least in terms of, uh, you know, the court, there's no court that ruled that, you know, something went wrong at a big, at a big level.

00:29:18.600 Anyway, uh, this feels a lot like that, doesn't it?

00:29:23.040 If you had to predict, what do you think is more likely to happen?

00:29:27.000 That we will learn that the half a million number is just bad data and that really there's not half a million more.

00:29:33.280 And they just cared more because of, I don't know if they wanted to defeat Trump or something.

00:29:37.660 Okay. So do you think it's going to be that this really is fuckery? 0.96

00:29:43.940 Or in the end, is it going to disappear like so many other claims about elections? 0.57

00:29:48.400 When somebody says, ah, you just counted the numbers wrong, or you were looking at the wrong list, it's not 500,000.

00:29:54.940 Which, which way do you think this will go?

00:29:58.100 I don't know about this one.

00:29:59.320 Um, it feels to me like this would be way too much thumb on way too much scale that anybody thought they could get away with it.

00:30:08.600 So I'm going to go with this will never be proven.

00:30:11.220 Um, this is what I call a category problem for, for credibility.

00:30:18.740 It's in the category of things that tend not to get proven.

00:30:22.100 It doesn't mean it's not true.

00:30:23.560 Again, difference between credibility and what's true or not true.

00:30:27.560 There's a difference.

00:30:28.220 But it feels to me just like all those other cracking kind of stories where somebody's got a claim that's so big.

00:30:37.700 It's such a big claim that it feels like if it were true, you wouldn't, you'd get to the bottom of it kind of quickly because it's just out there slapping you in the face.

00:30:47.500 It's so big.

00:30:48.560 But I'll bet we don't.

00:30:50.580 I'll bet this just disappears.

00:30:52.720 We'll see.

00:30:53.420 Well, Trump's going after the meat packers, so to speak, the meat packers, if you know what I mean, wink, wink.

00:31:02.360 Uh, no, it's actually people who actually pack meat, real meat, the real kind.

00:31:07.840 And, uh, he thinks that the meat packers, especially some, some number of them are foreign, uh, foreign companies that operate in the U.S.

00:31:17.240 Uh, and they're allegedly manipulating prices to keep the price high.

00:31:21.940 And Trump is going to have the DOJ look into their meat packing business, see if they're cheating.

00:31:29.180 Those cheating, they're cheating or eating.

00:31:34.580 Stop it.

00:31:35.840 Be nice.

00:31:38.820 Be nice in the comments.

00:31:41.080 All right.

00:31:41.460 Uh, uh, and, uh, Trump is still pushing for the filibuster under the theory that the Democrats,

00:31:51.940 the Democrats would do it if they were in charge, which I think they will.

00:31:55.280 Uh, so James Carville has already warned that the Democrats are absolutely, definitely going to get rid of the filibuster if they get in charge.

00:32:03.600 And he thinks that they will in 2028.

00:32:06.400 So if it's going to happen anyway, does it make sense that Trump would want it to happen under his term?

00:32:14.100 If you know it's going to happen anyway, it's a strong argument for doing it first. 0.98

00:32:19.760 So I think that's where Carville fucked up. 0.95

00:32:22.780 Carville should have said, there's no way. 0.94

00:32:26.160 There's no way the Democrats are going to get rid of that filibuster while simultaneously believing, oh, we're totally going to get rid of that filibuster.

00:32:34.020 We're going to get rid of that so hard.

00:32:35.540 We'll just claim we're not so that they could, you know, get past a Republican administration and then get all their own goodies.

00:32:42.760 So I think Trump is smart enough to know that they're definitely going to do this because they're, as he would say, cruel, evil, bad people.

00:32:53.760 But he listed the things that he could get done if he gets rid of the filibuster.

00:33:00.940 So he'd be able to get rid of, he'd be able to install voter ideas requirement.

00:33:05.780 No mail-in voting, no cash bill, no men and women's sports, no welfare for illegals. 0.97

00:33:10.940 I'm sure the list is longer than that.

00:33:13.900 But those do seem like kind of biggish things. 0.88

00:33:18.440 There are a lot of people who would say the number one thing you want him to fix, the number one thing is the voter ID mail-in voting situation.

00:33:28.940 If he only did that, would there ever be another Democrat president? 0.77

00:33:34.720 Because the play here is kind of interesting.

00:33:36.700 The only way it makes sense to get rid of the filibuster is if you have some confidence that your team will be in there next time and maybe the time after, which is not normal.

00:33:48.980 You know, normally there's going to be a Democrat and then a Republican, you know, sooner or later.

00:33:54.100 So if Trump knows for sure that they're going to do it, and he knows for sure that if he fixes the voter ID and the mailing, basically the election integrity, if he fixes the election integrity before 2028, can a Democrat ever get elected?

00:34:14.540 The only way this makes sense is if he thinks that he can prevent Democrats from being elected by getting rid of cheating in the election.

00:34:24.900 Is that a good assumption?

00:34:27.800 It's not bad.

00:34:28.960 I don't know if it'll make a difference.

00:34:33.560 I don't know.

00:34:34.980 Because I don't know how much anybody has or will cheat.

00:34:38.740 I don't know.

00:34:40.240 But if you assume, and I assume that Trump knows more than we do about, you know, what bad behavior people are doing.

00:34:47.660 If he's pretty sure that these changes would lock in a Republican, or at least, when I say Republican, I'm going to say at least a Fetterman-level Democrat.

00:34:58.100 You know what I mean? 0.98

00:34:59.360 It's like the furthest it could go would be to a Fetterman-type of Democrat, not a crazy-ass Democrat. 0.98

00:35:06.340 Maybe there's something to this filibuster. 0.95

00:35:09.500 Well, meanwhile, the U.S. and Hungary, trying to be best friends.

00:35:13.240 Trump loves the head of Hungary, Orban, and he's visiting, I guess, now.

00:35:18.600 And Orban says it's the golden age of U.S.-Hungary relationships.

00:35:23.040 This is in the European conservative.

00:35:25.780 Now, what do you think of that?

00:35:26.760 If you are a Democrat, you say, oh, my God, all the foreign leaders have learned that you can just flatter Trump by saying, you know, using his words and his framing.

00:35:39.000 And if you flatter him enough, you know, then you can influence him and you can get what you want.

00:35:44.680 Is that how you take that?

00:35:45.520 That is true in the sense that flattery is the component of persuasion.

00:35:53.240 But it's not a strong part.

00:35:56.040 It's sort of a weak part.

00:35:57.920 Here's the part that nobody sees coming.

00:36:01.520 If Trump can make everybody think that if they talk the way he talks, frame things the way he frames them, and give him a king's crown when he visits, for example, that they can influence him, that's exactly the opposite of what's happening.

00:36:19.680 If he can make other foreign leaders, essentially wear the clothes he wants them to wear, say the things he wants them to say, and do the things he wants to do, on a small scale, small scale, such as using his framing of the golden age.

00:36:35.340 Very small.

00:36:36.840 But it's his. 0.59

00:36:37.580 And every time he can get a foreign leader to act the way he acts, even if the foreign leader is thinking, ha-ha, he's falling for my persuasion.

00:36:47.840 I'm just talking the way he does, and it's going to work.

00:36:50.360 No.

00:36:51.000 If it was about one thing, then maybe it would just be flattery and it would work.

00:36:55.220 But if you fall into his larger frame for everything, you sort of become his subordinate, not in a technical way, but in a persuasion way, because you just sort of fall into the frame.

00:37:11.240 So he has such a strong frame, meaning the way he looks at things and what he says is important and what isn't important, that's the frame.

00:37:21.280 It's such a strong frame and consistent.

00:37:23.840 He doesn't change his frame too much, if ever.

00:37:26.640 It's easier for people to fall in and thinking that they're influencing him.

00:37:31.700 And the next thing you know, they've effectively hypnotized themselves to think that what he says is the common sense, smart thing, for whatever the next thing is.

00:37:39.700 So I don't know that most of you would have spotted that, would you?

00:37:45.340 Would you have known that, you know, on the surface level, flattery is what they're getting, what they're giving him, and it works.

00:37:52.280 But as soon as you get to the next level of falling into the larger frames like immigration and crime, because you notice a lot of foreign leaders are falling into his immigration and crime.

00:38:03.220 NATO.

00:38:04.180 NATO is another one.

00:38:06.540 Rare Earth minerals.

00:38:07.420 You could just go right down the line, and you'd find things that Trump created the frame, and then the foreign leaders fell into it.

00:38:16.820 You see it everywhere.

00:38:18.480 And it starts with the small stuff that other people think is flattery.

00:38:23.220 You probably saw, because it made a lot of news, not very important, but everybody's talking about it, is that Ben Shapiro and Megyn Kelly got into it a little bit on some event.

00:38:34.020 They're on stage.

00:38:34.880 And I don't know what's true here.

00:38:39.800 I can tell you that Grok had one version, and I've heard now two different versions of what's true.

00:38:45.180 But the basic idea is that Ben Shapiro claimed that Candace Owens is implicating Charlie Kirk's widow in his assassination.

00:38:57.920 And Megyn Kelly said, and Megyn Kelly said, I've never heard of that, that Candace is blaming Charlie Kirk's widow for being part of a murder plot. 0.99

00:39:11.740 And so Ben basically, you know, sort of suggested that she's not up to date.

00:39:21.160 I was not aware of that.

00:39:23.300 I was not aware that there's a claim of that.

00:39:26.100 I don't think it's true.

00:39:27.520 Obviously, I don't think it's true.

00:39:28.800 So I'm starting with, obviously, there's nothing to it.

00:39:33.340 And I don't think that TPUSA had anything to do with anything.

00:39:38.000 I think this is Candace content.

00:39:40.520 She's very good at connecting dots, even when the dots shouldn't be connected.

00:39:44.640 It's a Bible code problem.

00:39:47.920 Yeah.

00:39:48.980 So the first thing I would say is, Ben Shapiro, why do you think that the rest of us would be so invested in that conversation that we would know that?

00:39:58.800 And then secondly, I look to see if it's true, and I don't even know if it's true.

00:40:03.840 It doesn't seem true that Candace directly accused her of murder, right?

00:40:09.620 I think it's more like, hmm, I have questions.

00:40:13.320 This thing happened at the same time as this thing.

00:40:15.640 Why did this thing happen right after that thing?

00:40:18.620 Now, I find that interesting content.

00:40:22.920 It gets a little creepy when it involves somebody who died recently.

00:40:27.920 So that's a separate thing.

00:40:30.000 But I do like hearing the conspiracy theories.

00:40:34.100 I do like when somebody can back it up with some details, even if I don't think it's true.

00:40:39.220 It's kind of fun.

00:40:41.360 So as of this morning, I still don't know what is true.

00:40:46.240 I don't believe that I would ever find a quote where Candace was directly accusing either TPUSA or Erica for being part of the murder.

00:41:02.880 But Ben Shapiro thinks that that's an indisputable fact.

00:41:08.600 And he's smarter than me, and he's paying attention to this more than I am.

00:41:11.660 So I don't know what's going on here.

00:41:13.420 Do you?

00:41:14.980 But the main thing I wanted to tell you, actually, it's the only thing I want to say, is I didn't know it.

00:41:20.860 So I'm in the same business as Megyn Kelly.

00:41:24.520 I just don't do it as well.

00:41:27.020 I'm in the same business.

00:41:28.360 I wake up every morning, and I read all the political gossip and everything.

00:41:32.540 I didn't know this.

00:41:33.880 Why would I know it?

00:41:34.800 And I feel a little insulted that that's a problem that she wouldn't know it, or it's a problem that I didn't know it, and we're both in the business watching the news.

00:41:45.620 I think it's because it's not true, right?

00:41:49.400 I feel like I'd know it if it were true, that she had really said that directly.

00:41:53.860 Now, if she had been creeping around the edges, I wouldn't be delighted with that, but it'd be entertaining.

00:42:04.800 So, I don't know.

00:42:06.220 I just wondered what you thought about that.

00:42:09.520 I do think that this whole thing of conservatives fighting with conservatives, it really has everything to do with the fact that they're winning.

00:42:18.380 The conservatives are winning so hard that they're running out of things to complain about, so they just turn their guns on each other.

00:42:25.980 Doesn't it feel like that?

00:42:27.820 Maybe I'm the only one who thinks that way, but it just feels like we ran out of things to do, so we have to go after each other.

00:42:34.800 I just don't like to be part of that.

00:42:36.720 So, I love Ben Shapiro, one of the most skilled people in the game.

00:42:42.020 Megyn Kelly, one of the most skilled people in the game, probably the best podcaster, in my opinion.

00:42:47.240 I don't need to go after either one of them.

00:42:50.980 Well, it's Saturday, so that means that yesterday was Bill Maher becoming more of a Republican every day.

00:42:56.940 Every Friday, he becomes a little bit more Republican, but not really.

00:43:01.020 He's not going to become a Republican.

00:43:03.500 But here's the latest.

00:43:05.440 He's weighing in on the Trump ballroom.

00:43:07.740 So, Bill Maher said, when he first mentioned it, it was all about, oh, my God, he's desecrating the White House. 0.99

00:43:13.820 And then I finally read, oh, well, they've done this shit to the White House before. 0.99

00:43:18.860 It's just a building, I think. 0.99

00:43:22.140 And then Maher's pointing out, we don't have a place where they have state dinners.

00:43:25.920 They're doing it in a tent.

00:43:27.820 This is America. 0.99

00:43:29.420 So, do I give a shit that he's doing this to the White House? 0.99

00:43:32.020 I really don't. 0.99

00:43:33.380 And it's private money.

00:43:34.680 Save your ire for things that matter.

00:43:37.800 There you go.

00:43:38.500 Now, what would you call that?

00:43:40.860 Is that a Republican opinion, a Democrat opinion, or a common sense opinion?

00:43:45.160 That's a common sense opinion.

00:43:47.460 Every time somebody goes into the common sense zone, they're sort of in the MAGA zone.

00:43:54.800 Not entirely.

00:43:56.480 But you've got one foot in there if you're arguing common sense.

00:44:00.440 And you're arguing it well, as he is.

00:44:02.700 Then also, Bill Maher was in favor of Trump's Golden Dome, the missile protection system that we're trying to build.

00:44:14.220 Maher said, I have a problem.

00:44:16.140 He's responding to one of his guests.

00:44:18.200 He goes, I have a problem if we don't build it.

00:44:20.160 Just because Trump thought of it, I'm not against it.

00:44:22.740 Something that would stop the increasing number of rogue missiles in this world from maybe coming over here and incinerating me?

00:44:28.560 Yeah.

00:44:29.260 Mark me down as pro for that.

00:44:30.700 I'm pro-having.

00:44:32.640 Now, can we do it?

00:44:33.780 I don't know.

00:44:34.740 He says it'll take three years and $180 billion.

00:44:37.600 And they, the Democrats, say, well, that's BS.

00:44:40.540 But that's to be a worthy investment.

00:44:42.800 Yeah, maybe it'll have cost overruns, he went on to say.

00:44:46.860 But that's everything.

00:44:47.820 Everything has a cost overrun.

00:44:50.380 Now, is this opinion Democrat or Republican or just common sense?

00:44:56.720 It's just common sense.

00:44:58.080 So, doesn't it feel to you as if he's got that one foot in MAGA?

00:45:03.600 He's not going to have the religious foot, right? 0.89

00:45:05.940 Don't ever expect him to, you know, pick up his Bible and say, finally, I've decided.

00:45:11.200 No.

00:45:11.600 But in the common sense domain, he's completely in.

00:45:16.520 And he actually, I say this condescendingly, but he knows what common sense looks like.

00:45:23.540 And he's willing to call it out despite what trouble it brings him.

00:45:28.140 I like that.

00:45:28.700 Well, there are two court decisions, the Supreme Court, and I'm going to confess that these

00:45:35.340 are so boring that I didn't want to look into them, and they're going to change 10 times

00:45:38.440 before tomorrow.

00:45:40.940 But the Supreme Court, apparently, temporary pause, snap payments, which is denying the

00:45:47.500 pause of the denial of the pause of the pause from the lower courts, pause of the snap of

00:45:54.220 the payments of the pause, all these stories are so filled with negatives that you don't

00:46:01.600 know exactly what got paused.

00:46:03.240 Wait, you paused the blocking of it.

00:46:06.520 Okay.

00:46:07.440 The blocking of it means you don't get it, but you paused the blocking.

00:46:12.420 But now another court says you have to unpause the blocking.

00:46:15.660 These are impenetrable stories.

00:46:19.720 I hope everybody gets fed and they don't starve to death because of paperwork, but it looks

00:46:24.480 like that's common.

00:46:26.400 Also, a federal judge ruled that, so there's something about snap.

00:46:30.160 You can read up on it if you care.

00:46:32.340 There's a federal judge ruled that Trump illegally ordered troops to Oregon.

00:46:38.080 And then the judge permanently barred Trump administration from deploying the National Guard troops in

00:46:44.780 Portland permanently.

00:46:46.760 How can he do that permanently?

00:46:49.280 Is that even an option?

00:46:51.100 The judge can say it's permanent?

00:46:53.720 Can't the next judge unpermanent say permanent?

00:46:56.280 Permanent seems like the wrong word.

00:46:58.880 Anyway, that's happening.

00:47:00.820 There will be more court cases.

00:47:02.480 Expect the barring to be unbarred and the barring of the barring to be unbarred by the barring.

00:47:08.040 Meanwhile, you remember Katie Porter, that horrible human being who was screaming at her assistants

00:47:14.880 and being kind of a bad person on video.

00:47:18.520 And at one point, she was leading in the polls to be the next governor of California. 0.66

00:47:22.460 But apparently, she got so much pushback from that terrible hit on video that her polling has gone from 17%,

00:47:32.820 which would have been a leading in a big field, down to 11%.

00:47:37.460 Guess who's number one in the California poll?

00:47:41.760 Now, this won't last, but the number one person in the current governor of California poll.

00:47:51.040 Now, it's not Newsom, of course.

00:47:52.440 He's not running.

00:47:54.120 The answer is a Republican.

00:47:58.800 There's a Republican in the lead for California governor.

00:48:03.240 There's no way that's going to last, but there's a Republican.

00:48:07.480 So it's Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

00:48:10.360 He now leads the field with 13%.

00:48:13.120 So 13%, I think that's actually what Trump had when he entered the race, around 13%, right?

00:48:20.380 So is there any possibility, any possibility, that a Republican could win in California?

00:48:28.540 I'm going to go out on a limb.

00:48:30.700 Yes.

00:48:32.220 There is a genuine chance.

00:48:35.440 And Steve Hilton's still in the game, too.

00:48:37.220 So Steve Hilton seems to, you know, I believe he would have a set of policies that at least the right would like a lot.

00:48:44.700 I don't know anything about Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, but it's nice that we've got options, isn't it?

00:48:54.640 All right, ladies and gentlemen, if you're just joining late, you probably didn't hear that today is November 8th, a very special day for reasons that you don't know, but I do.

00:49:08.620 And if you don't have your Dilbert calendar for 2026 now, I would rush because we really didn't print enough.

00:49:18.080 Somebody's going to be really mad at me in December.

00:49:20.940 Hey, I went to order my calendar and you're all sold out, which we might be because we did intentionally go low on the printing because it's expensive.

00:49:30.100 So we'll see.

00:49:32.860 All right, ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to say a few words privately to the local subscribers, as awesome as they are.

00:49:39.320 And the rest of you I hope to see tomorrow, same time, same place.

00:49:43.160 And right after the show, make sure you check in with Owen Gregorian on his Spaceless event, where he'll talk about this sort of stuff, maybe, and some other stuff, too, which will be fun.

00:49:55.800 And so just search for Owen Gregorian, and you'll see a link to his Spaceless event.

00:50:02.540 It'll happen not very long from now.

00:50:05.460 You'll fire it up after we're done.

00:50:07.020 All right, let's see.

00:50:07.920 Oh, oh, God, that hurts.

00:50:11.460 I can't lift one arm.

00:50:12.840 I've got half an arm.

00:50:14.580 My hand doesn't work on this one, but my arm doesn't work on the other one.

00:50:19.980 And then the cursor has disappeared.

00:50:25.020 All right, cursor. 0.99

00:50:27.180 Fuck me, I can't find the cursor again. 1.00

00:50:29.820 All right. 1.00

00:50:31.400 We're going to have to move the computer to another space so that I can mess around with it in less pain.

00:50:41.580 Okay, that doesn't hurt.

00:50:42.840 All right, cursor.

00:50:44.760 There you are.

00:50:45.880 Found you.

00:51:12.840 All right.

00:51:13.460 We're just Royal.

00:51:16.160 All right.

00:51:16.420 Okay.

00:51:16.720 We'll have to move to the mic.

00:51:17.680 If you're not going to have a mic there.

00:51:22.820 Let's go.

00:51:30.300 Show me.

00:51:31.260 Give me a hand.

00:51:33.920 All right.

00:51:35.040 вед45, how cool would you when it was going to come?

00:51:36.920 Thank you.

00:52:06.920 Thank you.

00:52:36.920 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 08, 2025

Episode 3012 CWSA 11⧸08⧸25

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