Episode 3019 CWSA 11⧸15⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 9 minutes
Words per Minute
146.14424
Summary
The old way of looking things is that confidence is something you're born with. The new way of thinking about it is that it's something you learn. But what if confidence is a learned skill? What if it were outside the box instead of inside the box?
Transcript
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and then you know what time it is it's the weekend this is when all the lazy podcasters
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take the days off not me no i'm here for you and today we're gonna have a show like oh my goodness
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oh my goodness it's gonna be so good you'll you'll barely be able to stand it
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let us prepare for all this goodness while you're streaming
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good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called
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coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance
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on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny
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human brains all you need for that is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chalces tiny canteen jugger
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flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee join me now for
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the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's
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called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go
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oh feel that oxytocin surging through your veins
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i think it's time to do a reframe what do you think a reframe from my book
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reframe your brain the best reviewed book i've ever written and uh changes lives everywhere all
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right a reframe is meant to change your life with just a simple sentence that makes you think about
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something differently not all the reframes are for every person but you might find one
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that's just for you all right today's reframe is uh the old way of looking things is that confidence
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is something you're born with do you ever look at somebody who seemed confident you said to yourself
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man i sure wish i were that confident well instead of thinking that confidence is something
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you're born with which i do not observe to be necessarily true except for very few people
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confidence is something you learn confidence is a learned skill i would say that i'm very much in
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that category so how many of you would define me as confident at least in the way that i present myself
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in public i present myself as confident right that's because in public i only do things i'm good at
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why would i do something i'm bad at in public so confidence is really just about being good at
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something that's it just just become good at something and then watch how confident you are
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and then if you act less confident about something you're legitimately inexperienced at that's not
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really a flaw that's just you being accurate in your assessment of your abilities so confidence is
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something you you develop it's not something you're born with and that will help you get through those
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unconfident periods because you'll know there's nothing wrong with you you're either good at something
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or you're not and that would be the proper viewpoint all right i was looking at the dilbert calendar the
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other day the brand new dilbert calendar for 2026 the best thing that ever happened in the world of
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calendars and i was thinking to myself god this is so well done how could it possibly be better
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i mean there's really no way it could be better right wait wait i've got an idea usually the calendars
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have comics on one side work with me here what if what if what if they had comics on both sides i know i know i know
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see look how cool that would be so you would you would uh you see your comic
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right and you'd be like wow that's a dilbert comic i'm so happy wait for it wait for it oh my god
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there's another comic there are comics on both sides of these pages people both sides one is the dilbert
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reborn there's a little bit spicier the other side is the classics which you're used to but oh my god
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well now now now it would be fair to say there is no way for this calendar to be better i mean really
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the the only thing i can even imagine this if it came with if it came with its own kind of easel or
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something i mean imagine if it came with its own little holder i mean it's almost too good to wait wait a
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minute what is this it comes with its own holder oh my goodness it comes people it comes with its own holder
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just put that in there you put that in there put your calendar on here if it were outside the box
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instead of inside the box well well that's that's almost too much
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might faint just from the goodness of it all all right i'm back all right well after the
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show today owen gregorian will have his spaces after party um so go look for owen gregorian after the
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show he'll he'll have it up and running a few minutes after we're done all right uh today is kind of a big
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day for me um so i've got an announcement to make the last day that i will draw dilbert with my own hand
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is yesterday i probably but i don't know this for sure probably will never draw dilbert again because
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both of my hands have now crapped out now when i was young people who know me well can testify that
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i had one irrational fear in life oh by the way the comic will continue i'll just i'll write it but my uh
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my art director will do the finished art as well as the first draft so i'll basically describe it to
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her she by the way she's been drawing it for years so my art director has been doing the finished art
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for years she knows how to do it really well better than me so all i do is say which characters are
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there what expressions they have and then i take a look at it to make sure that i communicated well
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so as of today today's comic is drawn by my assistant and if you want to see how that looks compared to
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my drawing you're going to find out that she's a better artist than i am but it won't look different
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to you because like i said she's been drawing it for years so it's not going to look different at all
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you won't even notice uh but it's a full disclosure now let me tell you the bad coincidence so ever
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since i was young i had an irrational fear two of them really one was drowning just an irrational fear
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and the other was something happening to my hands that's why i taught myself to draw left-handed
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because i thought you know i don't want to have the risk very unusual for an artist to teach
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themselves to draw with both hands i've never even heard of it but i had this irrational fear
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that i would lose lose the ability to draw with one hand so i taught myself to draw left-handed which i
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have for now a while but my right hand got burned out by something called a focal dystonia it's actually
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the same problem i had with my voice it's a it's a spasm in a muscle from overuse so it has nothing to
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do with uh that the other thing that people get in their hand it has nothing to do with any other thing
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it's a focal dystonia is what it's called so when i got the focal dystonia i moved to my left hand
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but more recently in the last month or two my left hand has become paralyzed from presumably a i don't
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know i'm guessing a tumor that's laying on some nerve or something so try to calculate these odds
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what are the odds that i would be first of all uh obsessed with not having a problem with my hands
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and then i would have two separate problems at the same time that had nothing to do with each other
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what are the odds of that because i'll bet not one of you wakes up in the morning worried about
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your hands i'm the only one the only one worrying about it and both hands got taken out at the same
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time by completely different situations but if you know anything about me i'm not much of a quitter
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so i'm gonna try to get rid of this cancer if i can see it see if anything normalizes i don't know
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i'm not expecting you to but it might all right move it on
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why do i have that on my list that wasn't interesting oh i told you some uh incorrect
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things about the new law about hemp there's some apparently congress was looking at making hemp
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illegal and i thought oh this is some trick they're using just to make marijuana illegal
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and that was my take on it that was all wrong that was all fake news uh there is a change on hemp
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but i'm told that from somebody named ben grows is that a real name um who told me on x that the real
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purpose of it was to close some loopholes apparently people were using the hemp uh agricultural laws
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to do some things that were more about thc than hemp and if you were using the hemp laws
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to get around some thc regulations that's not cool so it looks like that's what they were after but we'll see
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um you know what uh do you ever wonder how the average person understands the world
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because i feel like most of you are above average you know if if you can find this podcast and this
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is the kind of content you'd want to watch if you're even listening to this content here you're above
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average in intelligence this is not i mean honestly this is not really the podcast for the average people
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we talk about some some uh some intellectually interesting things so most of you are smarter than
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the normal but even so the government has turned into a confusopoly a word that i invented 25 years ago
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and a confusopoly means that um the consumer doesn't know what's a good deal and what's a bad deal
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because everything's too complicated and that's where we're at where the government has become a
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confusedopoly now why does that work so well for the politicians because the politicians only have to
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confuse you to stay in power if they did not confuse you then you would know exactly what they were
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promoting and you might even know if it worked or didn't work that's no good that the politicians don't
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want you to be able to measure their effectiveness because you would measure it maybe you know less than
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they would so they'd rather have a big confusing situation where both sides could say they have the
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better health care plan both sides could say they've got the better idea for bringing down prices
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right so as long as both sides can make claims that are confusing and you can't discern what's true
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then everybody can stay in power so confusion is not an accident
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in government or in business confusion often probably more often than any other reason is for
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the purpose of making you unable to discern what's going on that's his purpose anyway
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anyway i was waiting for uh either uh jonathan turley or dershowitz to weigh in on this um british
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broadcasting story trump is apparently going to sue them for a billion dollars he hasn't decided yet
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probably be a lot and uh turley says that uh they just agrees with friends and colleagues who have
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suggested that this would be an easy case to prove in a u.s court so what would be proven or not
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is trump would uh say that they defamed him i guess that's the right word defamed and that they did it
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intentionally so the intentional part or at least they should have known i think that ends up being
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the same it's either intentional or you should have known it was going to happen i think they both apply
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uh but this is legal stuff i'm not good at it so listen to listen to your podcasters who have also
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been lawyers because it turns out there's a lot of them there's a lot of podcasters especially on the
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right who at one point were lawyers i guess they're still lawyers um but do you agree do you think it
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would be difficult to make the case i believe it might be nearly impossible so i'm going to agree with
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turley which i always do by the way you know full disclosure if i had a different opinion than jonathan
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turley on a legal question i would immediately uh abandon my position the the minute i found out
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he had a different opinion i'd be like what's his opinion okay that's my opinion now same with
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dershowitz i would just abandon my opinion immediately if they disagree but i also think that the problem
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here is not that it happened that part will be easy to demonstrate and not that they didn't know
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about it they might be able to prove that whoever did it was completely aware of what they were doing
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in the sense that they knew it wasn't an exact quote but i think you have to go further to make your case
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and i believe you have to show that you intentionally were trying to cause damage as far as i know there's
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no document that shows that right is there any bbc email or text that says anything like uh well we'll
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do it this way to damage trump i don't think that exists and without that i don't really know how you
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can win that case but does trump need to win he does not
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trump does not need to win he's created a situation where the threat alone might cause them to settle
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and even if they don't settle and they decide to fight it out uh everybody else is going to look
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at it and say oh that's some trouble i don't want so i think trump wins in every scenario
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simply by putting the the fear of lawsuits into his enemies that feels like a really useful thing to
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do if you're him you know in general i would think it would be a little unethical to just use the fear
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of the courts as your main tool but in his specific case where he's been law fared from top to bottom and
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impeached and every other weasel thing happened to him in his case yeah he can use the threat i think
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that would be totally appropriate even if he makes some money on it
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well you've all been wondering why trump had been so worthless on health care right and you kept saying
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well you know it's not enough to say obamacare is bad we we're going to agree with you on that
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but you're going to have to suggest something that's not bad i.e your job as the government
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and so trump now has an outline for replacing what he calls a stupid obamacare and the key to that
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according to modernity steve watson's writing about it the key to it is instead of giving money to
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insurance companies he would or to yeah he would give it to the um patients and then they could
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shop around and then the free market would kick in because uh because the customers would have some
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kind of uh transparency on prices i think that's part of it somewhere and they the free market would
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lower costs do you believe that do you believe that if the only thing that he did was change who
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has the money in their pocket that that would change the cost of health care maybe over time
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but probably not it doesn't really look like it's a game changer does it to you all right so
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i feel like that's a little less than uh we need um and then other people said if you get rid of obamacare
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then uh insurance companies won't take the high risk people because they wouldn't have to
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part of obamacare is that they have to take the high risk people right they have to and that's partly what
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raises costs well so that would just recreate that problem if obamacare is scrapped i don't know what
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we'd do about that um and then i'm going to go back to my confuseopoly theme all right so now i've
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described to you a trumpian kind of approach which is free market and who you give the money to and then
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you wait blah blah now there are other parts to it but do you think you could actually compare that to
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the alternative or would it all just be confusing i can't do it i mean i feel like i'm reasonably bright
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and i actually care about the topic and i've looked into it at various times at various depths but i have
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no idea i have no idea how to fix it i have no idea if trump has the best idea i've ever heard i have
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no idea if there's some better way to fix obamacare and neither do you good do we agree that we do we're
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just out of our depth but so is everybody else and if somebody if someone were not at their depth and
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they really really understood this and had a great idea and brought it to you you wouldn't know it was a
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great idea so how do you get from here to there if none of us can even evaluate the quality of the
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idea which i think is where we're at it wouldn't be enough that there are some experts who could tell
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the difference i don't even know if that's true i kind of doubt it i think even the experts would be
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guessing on this one but a very interesting thing happened yesterday i don't know if any of you noticed
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so yesterday at my podcast do you remember what i said about health care so get the get the timing of
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this just because it's more fun this way i i was sort of frustrated and i said the only way i can even
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imagine we would get affordable health care without ruining the country is that tesla would start a robot
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hospital a robot hospital because you know elon had said we're getting closer and closer to the
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the robot surgeon that will be way better than a human well i don't know how far away we are but if
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we could save ourselves in health care within several years would that be soon enough if we could get way
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low-cost health care with robots in let's say five years would we already be bankrupt by then
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i'd be kind of close so here's what i'd like to see i've taught you this persuasion trick before right
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okay only 10 more presents to wrap you're almost at the finish line but first
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there the last one enjoy a coca-cola for a pause that refreshes here's a really important persuasion
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trick and i hope i hope someone in the administration is paying attention um and i'm gonna i'm gonna put this
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in the so this is something i learned in my corporate days and it goes like this whoever does the best job
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of making a picture about the situation essentially rules the day if you could come up with a graph of
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let's say climate change would that change anything oh yeah those climate change graphs changed everything
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just everything when you see a graph of our national debt going through the ceiling does that change
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anything oh yeah it does it does because when you see the picture it just changes everything now let's
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talk about health care who had who has a picture of health care solution nobody there's no picture
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that would show how we could ever survive health care costs the way they are and the way they'll be there's
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no picture and so that means that that space is completely available for persuasion which means
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that the team that's really good at this stuff which would be the republicans they have the wide open
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space and there's a specific picture that they need to create and i'm going to describe it now but you know my
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hands don't work so i'm not going to draw the picture so i'd like to see somebody take a run at it
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and if several people take a run at it we'll just pick the best one but here's what the picture should
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show it should show healthcare costs in the united states with a little bit of history so you can see them
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zooming to the sky maybe maybe you also show the national debt screaming into unsustainable territory and that would be the do
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nothing scenario but if you want to make a story where we're saved by robots which by the way i think
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is nearly guaranteed it's closer to guaranteed if you wait long enough than it is to maybe would you agree
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with that statement that the idea of robot medical care it's not an if it's definitely common we don't
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know if it's a year or five years or ten years but it's definitely coming so you pick a time
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that seems reasonable five years five years maybe ten and then you you show that the expenses for
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healthcare are going through the roof and then in that fifth or tenth year whatever you thought was
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reasonable you you show a plateau you know it's not completely flat but it flattens and then you show it dropping
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down now why why would you show that because we feel right now the healthcare is hopeless that there's
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nothing going to happen except it will go up unless we just take people off of healthcare which we don't
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really want to do right we'd like everybody to be on there so i'd like one good persuasive picture
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that shows that we do have a path out and it goes through probably tesla i mean you could even label
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it tesla now i don't know that elon would object to the idea that either his company or one like it or
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other companies in that domain would be the only way out the only way out there's no second way to do
00:25:14.480
this if there were a second way to do it it would be a whole different situation there's not there
00:25:21.200
might be one way and we might be lucky enough to be alive when that one opportunity just happens to
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come along so if you want to change the world make one persuasive picture that shows yes we're in total
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trouble now in the short run we'll just fund it as expensive as it is but we're going to try as hard
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as possible to make sure that elon's vision of a robot nearly free healthcare world happens and that
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might require some you know private plus government uh coordination i know you don't like the government
00:25:59.920
part but usually you need it all right what do you think of that idea so you've been living in this
00:26:05.680
world where where healthcare is the biggest problem it looks like uh but i just offered you something
00:26:12.240
that looks like a solution but you still have to way overpay for five to ten years before you got there
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that's still better than no solution right even if it takes a few years because you could you could
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subsidize it if you knew we were rapidly approaching the place where robots make everything
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almost free that's that's what elon thinks that we'll get to the point where of such abundance
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because of robots and ai that everybody will have everything so anyway you got really quiet in the comments
00:26:51.600
i can't tell if you think that's a good idea or you're thinking about it
00:26:54.480
well here's the way you should evaluate it there's somebody who just keeps writing in all caps stupid idea
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so you know i know what the npcs are going to say scott i'm an npc and the important thing is that
00:27:16.800
the government should not be involved in anything scott i'm an npc and you can't give elon musk
00:27:24.160
any more any more sway over the economy scott all right so we'll figure to forget about you all caps guy
00:27:34.880
all right let me just make sure i'm seeing your comments here
00:27:37.360
all right but you here's the way to evaluate that you should not evaluate it based on a perfect idea
00:27:48.400
that's what the npcs do did i suggest a perfect idea no no it's not perfect uh did i
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did i did i suggest an idea that we hadn't seriously thought about yes is it an idea that you could
00:28:07.520
imagine and it takes some imagination that you could imagine it it could help work things out and we'd all
00:28:14.560
get health care yes you can imagine it right so if there's literally one and only one plan on the table
00:28:22.560
and i believe there is it's this we we overpay for health care in the short run just we have it
00:28:30.800
but we work as hard and as fast as possible to make sure that the cost of health care drops to zero
00:28:37.520
or close to it with robots you tell me you have a better idea and you know what i'm going to say
00:28:43.840
that's a confusopoly is my idea confusing does everybody understand short run you overpay
00:28:52.080
everybody knows what overpaying is long run robots come in and lower the cost everybody knows what a
00:28:59.680
robot is everybody knows what lowering cost is so now i have the simplest idea the easiest one to explain
00:29:07.360
it covers the short run which is going to be unpleasant but that would be true of every plan
00:29:12.960
in every plan the short run is unpleasant so if you say to me but scott you've solved nothing in the
00:29:20.480
short run i would say that is common to all plans nobody has a nobody has a short-term plan but if
00:29:27.520
there's only one long-term plan you're gonna have to beat it right you're gonna have to come up with
00:29:33.680
an idea that's better than that i haven't heard one have you so here's the interesting thing that just
00:29:40.960
three hours after i said the only way to solve this is tesla robot hospitals that's basically what elon said
00:29:50.480
at a uh convention he was at um he said uh basically he said that will you know the doctors don't grow on
00:30:01.600
trees but that they will be built in factories which is a great line let me let me say it again this is just
00:30:09.920
a great line that doctors don't grow on trees but in the robot world they will be built in factories
00:30:19.440
that's a really good reframe all right there's a whole bunch of other tesla news i thought was
00:30:24.480
interesting i didn't know this but apparently tesla is moving quickly toward its american built cars
00:30:31.760
having no chinese parts now that's only for the american built cars how smart is it that tesla is
00:30:40.640
moving first to make just the american built cars have no chinese parts well i think that's really
00:30:48.960
smart because if something blows up in the supply chain you'd certainly want america to be something
00:30:56.240
you could um let's say retreat to and say all right well we still have america you know so it'd
00:31:01.920
still be a viable company and you can build from there so yes that's exactly where you want to start
00:31:07.440
with no chinese parts american built cars because they build cars in other countries um
00:31:15.680
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00:31:32.480
and uh also elon musk says that they've mapped on a plan to put 100 gigawatts per year of solar
00:31:41.120
powered ai satellites into orbit um i saw this on a post by nick uh cruz patain who's a real good
00:31:49.920
follow on all the tesla stuff nick cruz patain anyway um this is what elon said he said we see a
00:31:57.120
path to putting 100 gigawatts per year of solar powered i think that's like a quarter of all the
00:32:03.920
energy used in the entire country and he's looking to put that much up per year because the amount of
00:32:10.720
energy we're going to use is almost incalculable so we're not we're not going to have too much
00:32:15.840
um and apparently what they can do is just put a bunch of satellites in the air and network them
00:32:22.640
together which they already know how to do they have all the components for that and uh
00:32:28.960
and he pointed out that the united states consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year
00:32:34.800
so he wants to put a hundred gigawatts into the air every year over the united states when we're only
00:32:43.040
using so it's like a little more or a little less than a quarter of that uh anyway and he says we
00:32:50.720
have a plan mapped out to do it so it gets crazy so this is not hypothetical it's not hypothetical he's
00:32:58.960
literally gonna make tesla the biggest energy company in the world it looks like it's gonna happen any
00:33:04.640
moment now now i i want to give credit to the person who made this uh recommendation to me several
00:33:13.280
years ago but i think i'll wait to talk to him to see if he wants his name mentioned but a very
00:33:19.200
successful investor once said on x that you should look at tesla as a energy company
00:33:27.440
and i thought to myself what an energy company i don't quite get that now i get it now i get it
00:33:38.960
it he can very easily the energy company could be i don't know it could be bigger than robots
00:33:45.920
i imagine uh so we'll see anyway i'll ask if i can use his name because that was that was a really
00:33:53.280
interesting reframe that that tesla was an energy company well also tesla uh they're designing
00:34:01.840
something called the a5 chip that they will use in their robots in their cars but what's interesting
00:34:07.680
is i guess they had some problems trying to make this chip and they had two chip projects going on at
00:34:14.480
the same time and elon decided to collapse him into one program which is now doing better
00:34:19.920
i i think he got involved directly as he likes to do and maybe work that out but he actually predicts
00:34:26.640
that their chip would be better than nvidia's and that it would be 10 the cost of an nvidia chip
00:34:35.840
and two to three times uh at least he said two to three times better what wait what are you serious
00:34:46.320
are you telling me that nvidia is like the the class of all chip making people like nobody can
00:34:53.760
nobody can even copy them they're so good they're uncopyable the entire country of china with all of
00:35:00.160
its technical prowess can't match nvidia and elon just sits there in a chair they turn the camera on he's
00:35:07.920
like yeah we're building one that's three to three times better and it'll be about 10 of the cost
00:35:12.640
wait what what are you serious 10 of the cost and two to three times better than the best thing that's
00:35:21.840
ever existed is that even possible yes yep if anyone else said that wouldn't you say yeah sure prove it
00:35:34.240
you might not you know bet against it but you wouldn't think it's likely would you but when elon
00:35:41.760
musk who as far as i know is not known as a chip designer manufacturer fab kind of a guy he just enters
00:35:50.640
the market and he's going to completely dominate it in how long a few months how long is that going to
00:35:58.480
take i don't even know how to evaluate that that has such a big claim but yet possible
00:36:07.600
so everything that you think you can predict about ai and robots in the future and health care i don't
00:36:14.800
think any of this is predictable because who saw this coming who saw that coming anyway so at that
00:36:23.280
same event that's where elon said that they do plan to build robot robot hospitals so i wasn't crazy
00:36:32.400
that that might be our only path out now i think elon's been quiet about this he's got so many things
00:36:40.560
going on that he has lots to talk about no matter where he is and what he's talking about so it could
00:36:45.920
be that he was just waiting for the right time maybe this is the right time but my goodness he's going to
00:36:52.400
solve health care energy and chips and robots and self-driving cars and that's just this year what's he
00:37:04.400
going to do next year good lord anyway um so that's happening
00:37:13.760
i i would go further and say that unless we use robots to solve our health care and our affordability
00:37:25.280
that we're heading towards certain doom the civilization is on a path toward guaranteed
00:37:32.320
destruction by essentially overspending if we just keep doing what we're doing
00:37:38.240
or if we even try to tweak it a little bit we're all dead basically it's not a tweakable situation
00:37:45.360
you would have to do something so fundamentally different than what the economy is doing now
00:37:51.360
or you'd have no chance of survival really you would just spend ourselves into oblivion but with robots
00:38:00.720
suddenly we do have a path out and it's not a crazy path it's it's one that looks like
00:38:07.280
something the smart people can figure out so watching the smart people try to save civilization
00:38:15.920
is kind of inspiring you know what i mean because you know if let's say you were one of the
00:38:23.360
captains of industry you know you're a musk or a bezos or you're a mark cuban or you know you can
00:38:31.760
throw in some other names wouldn't you feel a responsibility to save the world
00:38:36.640
because it looks like it's not going to save itself and there's a very small group of people who might
00:38:42.080
have the capability to really get in there and re-engineer things
00:38:49.760
if i were in that situation i would feel that i had to get involved it looks like that's what's driving
00:38:57.280
elon that he must be completely aware that nobody else is going to solve this problem
00:39:01.760
and i mean maybe maybe somebody else could but i wouldn't be betting on it
00:39:10.800
elon also said he doesn't own any vacation homes he just has one medium-sized house in austin and a tiny
00:39:20.720
one at starbase and when he takes his friends there they don't believe it's real that they think it's
00:39:25.760
a prank uh really this is your house how much would you love to see his medium-sized house
00:39:35.120
i would love i would love that that would be like better than a museum
00:39:38.400
like just just look around it's like okay what kind of games you got be so interesting well bill
00:39:46.240
maher was on last night and then we can all be mad at each other because mentioning bill maher gives
00:39:52.480
him more attention some of you don't like it if he gets too much attention but i love watching his
00:39:58.640
you know his arc of uh figuring out what is real and what isn't that's really interesting to
00:40:05.200
me because he's doing a really good job of trying to burrow through the bullshit to get to some kind
00:40:10.960
of truth he's not at truth he's definitely not there but the amount of effort and risk he's putting
00:40:17.760
into trying to find there is actually inspiring and i i appreciate i appreciate the risk he takes to try
00:40:25.040
to find it so last night on his show he went after uh zoran momdami pretty hard with a brutal history
00:40:32.240
on socialism and how it always fails and ends up in disaster and he was very clear
00:40:40.640
that momdami is a disaster waiting to happen that's their side right now do you respect that
00:40:49.520
do you respect that bill maher is taking the the darling of his own team and saying don't you understand
00:40:57.040
that this is not just a problem but you're talking about the end of civilization if this kind of
00:41:04.640
thinking takes over and that's exactly what i'd like to see coming from the the people who can make
00:41:11.360
a difference and more somebody who can make a difference um so i guess president trump said he's
00:41:18.400
withdrawing his support from marjorie taylor green because she's not she's not supportive enough of him
00:41:24.720
and uh i wasn't sure what that was all about besides the epstein files she wants all the epstein files
00:41:31.360
released he doesn't but also the democrats don't want them released the democrats just voted against
00:41:37.920
releasing them right so in what world do trump and the democrats come down on the same side
00:41:46.720
that they both don't want to release the epstein files now i'm told that the democrats have some
00:41:51.680
you know word salad the negotiating thing that's the reason they said no to releasing them like they're
00:41:59.360
they're trying to guess something in return but that didn't sound real to me it sounded like an excuse
00:42:05.360
not to release them everything sounds like an excuse not to release them actually no matter who you're
00:42:10.880
talking to anyway so the other differences with marjorie taylor green and the president are
00:42:17.040
uh involvement in foreign wars such as gaza um the epstein files health care she's she thinks she
00:42:25.680
he should do more in health care as do all of us and inflation and prices and stuff like that but i
00:42:31.760
don't know what else he could be doing frankly don't know what he could be doing but here's my take on all
00:42:37.520
that i i feel like i'm not going to take sides on any of that um i just don't like taking sides when i like
00:42:45.440
both sides i like president trump and i like marjorie taylor green and i like a lot of the people who
00:42:53.920
are battling each other you know candace against whoever and uh tucker against whoever and you know
00:43:01.680
so it's hard to get past especially the ones i've met you know there are a few of them i've met personally
00:43:07.440
once you meet somebody personally and they're nice to you and they're warm and they're completely open to
00:43:13.760
you it's really hard to slam them in public i know that's you could argue that's you know sort of what
00:43:21.040
i should be doing but i don't know i just can't do it just can't do it so i'm gonna i'm just gonna
00:43:29.360
say of all the all the personal drama you might want to pay attention to it for fun but wouldn't take it
00:43:37.280
too seriously it just weakens your own team so don't take it too seriously ontario the wait is
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callie means is i guess he would be an activist i hope that's the right word he wouldn't mind an
00:44:54.000
activist uh against uh big pharma and big food and some of their abuses anyway here's a claim he made
00:45:01.600
he was talking to megan kelly at some event um about the uh make america healthy again movement he said
00:45:08.480
that there's this is unbelievable i mean i believe it because of the source but he says there's a cia
00:45:15.120
manuals being sent to all employees in the make america healthy sort of world and they're sending around
00:45:22.000
the cia manual called i can't believe this is true it's a little too on the nose but the source is good
00:45:32.000
so but it is too on the nose this uh allegedly the cia manual is how to be a bad bureaucrat and subvert
00:45:41.200
an institution from within okay i think i'm talking myself i don't believe in this
00:45:47.040
isn't that a little bit too a little bit too perfect right so i'm going to put a question mark
00:45:56.080
on this i do believe that kelly means his high high credibility i don't believe that he would mislead you
00:46:03.120
intentionally and that's not his thing at all so but he could have some bad information anybody could
00:46:09.680
uh and uh apparently people are saying that 90 percent of the employees at health and her human
00:46:17.360
services um are talking about this thing and they're afraid that rfk jr and trump are anti-science so
00:46:25.760
they have to save the planet from these anti-science guys i don't know so i i guess i'm going to put a
00:46:35.920
question mark on this one uh and the question mark is not about the people involved i think they're all
00:46:41.600
high credibility and high value added people i just don't know if the document is real it might exist
00:46:50.400
but it doesn't mean it came from the cia i don't know if they would even deny it
00:46:56.000
anyway as you know there's a whole bunch of epstein files got released 20 000 files with 1500 trump
00:47:03.040
mentions 1500 trump mentions now i realize people talk about trump a lot but even my emails don't have
00:47:11.600
1500 trump messages and i talk about them all the time 1500 oh um and uh alan dershowitz was saying
00:47:24.080
on a podcast that the media is intentionally twisting the facts of the epstein case to smear trump and he
00:47:31.040
gives an example um he said that the newly surfaced emails there's a one detail that the press leaves
00:47:40.080
out now when i tell you what the press leaves out you're going to shake your head and some of you are
00:47:48.720
lost in the confusedopoly of this story so you may have missed this little point here's just a minor point
00:47:55.440
one of the most damning and provocative things so far is the claim that virginia joffrey joffrey she was
00:48:04.160
one of the known victims of uh of epstein that there's a claim that trump spent hours with her
00:48:12.960
it's also true that virginia joffrey has said publicly that she never met trump
00:48:18.320
so her claim before she passed away tragically recently is her claim is that she never met him
00:48:26.960
but apparently there's something in some document that said they spent hours together
00:48:38.160
or at least it adds enough uh doubt into the story that you should put that in there but can you believe
00:48:44.160
that the media doesn't mention that she's denied ever meeting him much less spending hours with him
00:48:54.160
so i mean it's not like you would forget if you'd met trump and spend several hours with you wouldn't
00:49:00.000
forget so i agree with the dershowitz that sounds like a intentional smearing of trump
00:49:07.840
um i saw pj media saying this says it all that the democrats blocked the release of the epstein files
00:49:16.480
matt margolis is writing about this um do you what do you think that's telling you the fact that the
00:49:24.160
democrats didn't want it released is it telling you that there's nothing damning about trump
00:49:32.000
because if they release it you can see there's nothing damning or uh or what like why would they
00:49:42.000
not release it they would be better off with the uncertainty that there's something in there
00:49:46.640
if they knew for sure there was nothing in there and as many have pointed out i think matt does too
00:49:52.240
that if there was anything in there that was bad for trump you think the democrats wouldn't have
00:49:57.440
already found it and released it so there's a strong suggestion that there's nothing about trump
00:50:04.880
that's bad so why would trump want it not to be released well dershowitz gives you the perfect reason
00:50:14.160
according to dershowitz if you release real information the illegitimate press will just change it
00:50:22.080
and act like it's something it's not that's what they did with the virginia joffrey thing
00:50:26.560
they took a real thing and they just changed it to a fake thing and nobody's going to research it
00:50:34.000
so they're just going to turn on the news they're going to hear msnbc's version of it
00:50:39.040
they're going to turn it off and think that's the reality but not so yeah so why would the democrats
00:50:47.840
block it unless they were up to no good they wouldn't block it to protect trump
00:50:52.880
so therefore there must be nothing in there that would hurt him but there might be things in there
00:50:58.160
that would hurt other people and there might be things in there that could be misinterpreted easily
00:51:13.040
yeah anyway so trump apparently going on the offense as he likes to
00:51:16.960
he's asking the department of justice to look into a few billionaires and other just rich people
00:51:25.440
who had connections to epstein he actually named names now i wouldn't talk about this except the
00:51:32.080
president named the names uh to me this sounds totally inappropriate to accuse them because as far
00:51:39.120
as i know there's no evidence of specific wrongdoing so trump named bill clinton reid hoffman larry summers
00:51:47.600
and he called and he says jp morgan chase so i guess that means some executives unnamed and uh he says
00:51:54.240
records show they spent a lot of time on the island i don't know if that's true they might have spent more
00:51:59.120
time on the plane than the island but um as far as i know none of them have specific claims of wrongdoing
00:52:08.480
right there are people who speculate but i don't believe there's any like witness or whistleblower
00:52:17.360
or anything like that so i'm always uncomfortable naming names when they're there's just no criminal
00:52:23.680
evidence of anything now i'm not comfortable with the president asking the department of justice to look
00:52:31.120
for a crime when there's not some smoking gun there and i don't know is it is it a smoking gun enough
00:52:40.080
that they spend time together well it would if you were in a cartel right if you were a cartel member
00:52:48.160
uh or let's say somebody discovered you were in a cartel you don't think that maybe they'd get a little
00:52:54.000
extra scrutiny yeah so it makes sense that your associations might raise a red flag but is this
00:53:04.480
enough of a red flag now i'm curious so i would like to know the answer too but i don't know this is
00:53:12.240
mighty close mighty close to violating some kind of basic right but i'm no lawyer so we don't know if
00:53:20.400
trump's going strictly for revenge it's a distraction to be a good distraction uh or is it a warning to
00:53:27.520
other people who might be in the file that you better help me keep that sealed it might be a
00:53:32.640
warning to the people in the file it might be his way to tell these uh three or four people uh on this
00:53:40.080
on this particular issue we're sort of on the same page and if you don't want to be the one who's
00:53:47.040
investigated you might want to join me in saying these should not be released but what did reed
00:53:52.480
hoffman do cleverly reed hoffman said today trump should release all the epstein files
00:53:59.680
every person in every document and he sort of suggested that trump was using these rich democrats
00:54:07.920
as sort of a stalling technique so he was just stalling maybe maybe so i think reed hoffman played it
00:54:16.480
right because he might know that they're not going to be released uh which would be playing it right
00:54:23.520
because then he looks he looks innocent because he's calling for full transparency whoever it is
00:54:28.480
who calls for full transparency you just assume they must be innocent so if he knows then no matter
00:54:36.720
what he says or does they're not going to be released anyway and he might know that
00:54:40.880
then the best play you could ever make is to say release those files they should all be released
00:54:48.240
that would be a good play but again i say there's no evidence whatsoever that any of the people named
00:54:53.440
including reed hoffman did anything inappropriate or illegal on the island all right
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at onepeloton.com uh apparently some prison staffers at wherever jelaine maxwell is being held at the
00:55:34.560
moment they hacked into her emails i guess that would be prison emails uh and then gave the copies of
00:55:41.680
her emails to uh representative raskin have you noticed that wherever raskin is there's something
00:55:48.800
sketchy happening every time you see his name you're like oh god this is gonna be sketchy and sure enough
00:55:58.560
he uh claimed to be a whistleblower i don't know if that's a legitimate claim but under that umbrella
00:56:05.360
you got these emails what did it say uh and i guess the staffers who did this were fired the ones who
00:56:13.520
really who who leaked it um and it said something that was interesting
00:56:36.960
maybe the emails were so uninteresting that i didn't care
00:56:43.280
oh i guess the emails uh sort of suggested according to raskin that she was angling for a pardon
00:56:50.320
or whatever sentence commuted to which i say how's that a story if you were in jail for
00:57:04.560
aren't you always angling for a commutation or a or a pardon wouldn't it be more of a story if she were not
00:57:11.440
not now i'm going to use my uh george carlin example again where he says you don't have to actually
00:57:19.760
say the words to somebody you're colluding with if they know what you need
00:57:24.240
obviously the trump administration knows she would like a pardon or a commutation
00:57:30.240
right obviously you know it i know it everybody knows it would they have to say it would it be necessary that she said it directly
00:57:38.800
not really we all know that she wants one why wouldn't she there's no argument in the other direction
00:57:45.520
so yeah of course she wants one so that's a nothing story except for the raskin part being a weasel
00:57:51.680
uh germany is buying 150 million dollars of weapons to give to ukraine um it makes me wonder if the cost
00:58:03.040
of warfare is coming down over time um because we're in a weird phase of history where we're shifting from
00:58:11.920
you know tanks and artillery to more drones are the drones cheaper are we getting as much of a war done
00:58:21.120
ukraine i guess are they getting as much of war done as they would if they spent more money and had
00:58:28.320
more traditional weapons so one of my questions is is the general cost of warfare whether it's ukraine
00:58:35.680
or anyone ever anything else is the cost of where warfare coming down because the the tools are different
00:58:43.200
i don't know maybe and then i looked up the uh i've been obsessed about this a little bit lately
00:58:50.000
why we don't see reporting on the number of casualties anymore have you noticed that so
00:58:56.960
we've got this big war ukraine and russia and we're worried that it might turn into a world war
00:59:03.120
and i don't know how many people are being killed isn't that like super obviously missing in the
00:59:10.800
reporting what what would be the more important number than well this week x number of ukrainians
00:59:17.600
were injured and killed why is everybody leaving that out so i went to grok and started asking some
00:59:26.000
questions but then i thought oh i don't know if any of these answers are real i don't know if it's
00:59:31.520
hallucinating grok did start off by saying that the numbers are totally unreliable no matter no matter
00:59:40.160
what source you use you should take it with a grain of salt but i also wondered what is the range
00:59:46.640
like can you give me a range at all now why is somebody writing n-n-n-n-n-n-o-o-o-l over and over
00:59:57.600
again in my comments like what's that stop doing that it's bugging me
01:00:04.000
if it meant something that'd be better but anyway grok tells me and you can fact check me on this
01:00:12.320
that uh something like uh three to ten thousand people a week are being killed
01:00:18.720
some combination of russians and ukrainians does that sound right to you three do you believe that
01:00:26.240
three to ten thousand are dying per week and that they don't report that
01:00:31.120
that doesn't seem right so i have a suspicion which is completely
01:00:38.400
without data that maybe the actual death rate is way lower than we think
01:00:47.040
still terrible still bad still lots of injuries but it might be we might have a drone war where there
01:00:54.320
are far more injuries than our deaths because a lot of the drone stuff is to injure and maim
01:00:59.680
it's not all deadly so i wonder if we went to well we didn't actually kill too many russians
01:01:08.480
but we maimed 20 000. maybe they wouldn't report that would they so it's a little bit sketchy that
01:01:17.920
somebody you know germany is giving them 150 million but they probably don't have any idea
01:01:23.120
how many ukrainians or russians are dying the most important data
01:01:30.960
so um and then i saw another survey again you can't really trust anything that comes out of that
01:01:36.960
area that said that uh in ukraine something like 90 of the population uh has some close contact with
01:01:45.680
somebody who was injured during the war injured or killed 90 percent that'll that'll certainly have an
01:01:53.520
impact whereas a survey says russia has only 30 of its population had some direct family tie
01:02:01.760
to some some death or injury i don't know if you believe any of those numbers
01:02:06.400
but we'll see um i saw an argument today that i thought was interesting there's a yale professor
01:02:17.120
um whose name is we'll get to it um markovitz and he's got this argument that merit is a myth used to
01:02:30.480
justify inequality that the idea of merit is sort of a trick and that there's no such thing as merit
01:02:40.560
we just use it to justify our own getting more than other people
01:02:46.480
oh that the chat ended that's what's going on all right let's try something else
01:02:52.000
this will work wow that works okay much better anyway so i wonder what what is the argument that
01:03:03.600
meritocracy is a myth because most of my worldview is built around meritocracy i i hate to find out
01:03:11.120
that my worldview was built on the myth so i thought i'm gonna look into this a little bit so it might be
01:03:16.960
a little bit of word salad going on here because you know yale law professor but he says that quote
01:03:23.440
any idea that merit makes inequality deserved is a circle what merit isn't a real virtue it's just an
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ideological conceit constructed to launder otherwise offensive inequalities what
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what what what do any of those words mean i i feel like if i you know diagrammed it out i might be able
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to understand what he's saying but here's a general statement if the clearest you can make your argument
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is this you don't really have an argument no no unless you can be a little bit clearer than that
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i'm sorry i can't take it too seriously but then he had a good point that made me reassess
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he pointed out that merit is highly driven not entirely but highly driven by your parental resources
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and then i said oh okay now now you're talking that's a reasonable a reasonable point of view so if
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you are rich for example uh more likely you will be funded to go to a good school you'll be in a good
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neighborhood you know less crime less drugs i don't know about the drugs but uh there should be a
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gigantic difference in meritocracy meaning that some people who have the the brains and the ambition will
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also have the the parental backing and some won't and that that difference could make all the difference
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that's not a bad that's not a terrible opinion so i started out thinking that i was just going to
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sort of mock this point of view because i like meritocracy and anybody's arguing against it is
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going to be a fool but that's actually a reasonably good point isn't it that your meritocracy won't go
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that far unless you've got some resources behind it now in my in my case
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uh i came from a generation where you didn't need that many resources behind it you could still work
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it out you know that would that would have been my case but at the moment in the current world
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yeah it does seem like the resources your parents put into it are going to drive your success of your
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meritocracy so wasn't expecting to have my mind changed by that but maybe it was a little bit i mean
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i don't know that i would do anything differently but it changes my frame on it a little bit and we
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are done with the prepared part of my presentation look at my timing it's amazing and uh owen gregorian
01:06:07.840
will be setting up his spaces event in a few minutes i'm going to talk to the people on locals privately
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for a few minutes and uh i will see you tomorrow same time same place okay everybody in are you all in
01:06:25.200
for tomorrow okay all right locals i'm going to come at you privately in 30 seconds
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of you i'm going to get your answers we need to go and find out the pakistan's body