Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3019 CWSA 11⧸15⧸25

00:00:00.000 and then you know what time it is it's the weekend this is when all the lazy podcasters

00:00:06.720 take the days off not me no i'm here for you and today we're gonna have a show like oh my goodness

00:00:14.640 oh my goodness it's gonna be so good you'll you'll barely be able to stand it

00:00:19.680 let us prepare for all this goodness while you're streaming

00:00:30.640 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:00:35.840 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance

00:00:41.920 on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny

00:00:47.520 human brains all you need for that is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chalces tiny canteen jugger

00:00:53.600 flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee join me now for

00:01:01.040 the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's

00:01:05.680 called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:01:14.240 oh feel that oxytocin surging through your veins

00:01:19.120 i think it's time to do a reframe what do you think a reframe from my book

00:01:25.760 reframe your brain the best reviewed book i've ever written and uh changes lives everywhere all

00:01:35.280 right a reframe is meant to change your life with just a simple sentence that makes you think about

00:01:40.320 something differently not all the reframes are for every person but you might find one

00:01:46.000 that's just for you all right today's reframe is uh the old way of looking things is that confidence

00:01:54.560 is something you're born with do you ever look at somebody who seemed confident you said to yourself

00:02:00.080 man i sure wish i were that confident well instead of thinking that confidence is something

00:02:05.920 you're born with which i do not observe to be necessarily true except for very few people

00:02:11.360 confidence is something you learn confidence is a learned skill i would say that i'm very much in

00:02:20.640 that category so how many of you would define me as confident at least in the way that i present myself

00:02:27.520 in public i present myself as confident right that's because in public i only do things i'm good at

00:02:34.080 why would i do something i'm bad at in public so confidence is really just about being good at

00:02:42.160 something that's it just just become good at something and then watch how confident you are

00:02:49.680 and then if you act less confident about something you're legitimately inexperienced at that's not

00:02:56.800 really a flaw that's just you being accurate in your assessment of your abilities so confidence is

00:03:04.800 something you you develop it's not something you're born with and that will help you get through those

00:03:11.600 unconfident periods because you'll know there's nothing wrong with you you're either good at something

00:03:17.680 or you're not and that would be the proper viewpoint all right i was looking at the dilbert calendar the

00:03:24.640 other day the brand new dilbert calendar for 2026 the best thing that ever happened in the world of

00:03:30.480 calendars and i was thinking to myself god this is so well done how could it possibly be better

00:03:38.000 i mean there's really no way it could be better right wait wait i've got an idea usually the calendars

00:03:47.040 have comics on one side work with me here what if what if what if they had comics on both sides i know i know i know

00:04:00.000 i know settle down settle down

00:04:04.640 see look how cool that would be so you would you would uh you see your comic

00:04:09.840 right and you'd be like wow that's a dilbert comic i'm so happy wait for it wait for it oh my god

00:04:21.520 there's another comic there are comics on both sides of these pages people both sides one is the dilbert

00:04:28.720 reborn there's a little bit spicier the other side is the classics which you're used to but oh my god 1.00

00:04:36.400 well now now now it would be fair to say there is no way for this calendar to be better i mean really

00:04:44.640 the the only thing i can even imagine this if it came with if it came with its own kind of easel or

00:04:50.160 something i mean imagine if it came with its own little holder i mean it's almost too good to wait wait a

00:04:57.120 minute what is this it comes with its own holder oh my goodness it comes people it comes with its own holder

00:05:06.400 just put that in there you put that in there put your calendar on here if it were outside the box

00:05:13.120 instead of inside the box well well that's that's almost too much

00:05:20.320 might faint just from the goodness of it all all right i'm back all right well after the

00:05:27.600 show today owen gregorian will have his spaces after party um so go look for owen gregorian after the

00:05:37.200 show he'll he'll have it up and running a few minutes after we're done all right uh today is kind of a big

00:05:44.400 day for me um so i've got an announcement to make the last day that i will draw dilbert with my own hand

00:05:57.600 is yesterday i probably but i don't know this for sure probably will never draw dilbert again because

00:06:06.160 both of my hands have now crapped out now when i was young people who know me well can testify that

00:06:13.760 i had one irrational fear in life oh by the way the comic will continue i'll just i'll write it but my uh

00:06:22.080 my art director will do the finished art as well as the first draft so i'll basically describe it to

00:06:27.920 her she by the way she's been drawing it for years so my art director has been doing the finished art

00:06:34.480 for years she knows how to do it really well better than me so all i do is say which characters are

00:06:40.640 there what expressions they have and then i take a look at it to make sure that i communicated well

00:06:47.520 so as of today today's comic is drawn by my assistant and if you want to see how that looks compared to

00:06:54.880 my drawing you're going to find out that she's a better artist than i am but it won't look different

00:07:00.960 to you because like i said she's been drawing it for years so it's not going to look different at all

00:07:06.160 you won't even notice uh but it's a full disclosure now let me tell you the bad coincidence so ever

00:07:14.000 since i was young i had an irrational fear two of them really one was drowning just an irrational fear

00:07:22.160 and the other was something happening to my hands that's why i taught myself to draw left-handed

00:07:29.520 because i thought you know i don't want to have the risk very unusual for an artist to teach

00:07:34.000 themselves to draw with both hands i've never even heard of it but i had this irrational fear

00:07:39.840 that i would lose lose the ability to draw with one hand so i taught myself to draw left-handed which i

00:07:45.040 have for now a while but my right hand got burned out by something called a focal dystonia it's actually

00:07:53.040 the same problem i had with my voice it's a it's a spasm in a muscle from overuse so it has nothing to

00:08:00.880 do with uh that the other thing that people get in their hand it has nothing to do with any other thing

00:08:09.360 it's a focal dystonia is what it's called so when i got the focal dystonia i moved to my left hand

00:08:15.520 but more recently in the last month or two my left hand has become paralyzed from presumably a i don't

00:08:22.320 know i'm guessing a tumor that's laying on some nerve or something so try to calculate these odds

00:08:30.480 what are the odds that i would be first of all uh obsessed with not having a problem with my hands

00:08:38.000 and then i would have two separate problems at the same time that had nothing to do with each other

00:08:45.040 what are the odds of that because i'll bet not one of you wakes up in the morning worried about

00:08:51.200 your hands i'm the only one the only one worrying about it and both hands got taken out at the same

00:08:58.480 time by completely different situations but if you know anything about me i'm not much of a quitter

00:09:08.880 so i'm gonna try to get rid of this cancer if i can see it see if anything normalizes i don't know

00:09:14.880 i'm not expecting you to but it might all right move it on

00:09:21.120 why do i have that on my list that wasn't interesting oh i told you some uh incorrect

00:09:26.960 things about the new law about hemp there's some apparently congress was looking at making hemp

00:09:35.600 illegal and i thought oh this is some trick they're using just to make marijuana illegal

00:09:41.760 and that was my take on it that was all wrong that was all fake news uh there is a change on hemp

00:09:49.600 but i'm told that from somebody named ben grows is that a real name um who told me on x that the real

00:09:57.680 purpose of it was to close some loopholes apparently people were using the hemp uh agricultural laws 0.69

00:10:07.440 to do some things that were more about thc than hemp and if you were using the hemp laws

00:10:14.000 to get around some thc regulations that's not cool so it looks like that's what they were after but we'll see

00:10:23.440 at desjardins we speak business we speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans we've mastered

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00:10:53.040 um you know what uh do you ever wonder how the average person understands the world

00:11:03.520 because i feel like most of you are above average you know if if you can find this podcast and this

00:11:10.080 is the kind of content you'd want to watch if you're even listening to this content here you're above

00:11:15.440 average in intelligence this is not i mean honestly this is not really the podcast for the average people

00:11:23.760 we talk about some some uh some intellectually interesting things so most of you are smarter than

00:11:31.680 the normal but even so the government has turned into a confusopoly a word that i invented 25 years ago

00:11:42.160 and a confusopoly means that um the consumer doesn't know what's a good deal and what's a bad deal

00:11:49.760 because everything's too complicated and that's where we're at where the government has become a

00:11:55.600 confusedopoly now why does that work so well for the politicians because the politicians only have to

00:12:04.000 confuse you to stay in power if they did not confuse you then you would know exactly what they were

00:12:11.760 promoting and you might even know if it worked or didn't work that's no good that the politicians don't

00:12:20.080 want you to be able to measure their effectiveness because you would measure it maybe you know less than

00:12:27.760 they would so they'd rather have a big confusing situation where both sides could say they have the

00:12:33.680 better health care plan both sides could say they've got the better idea for bringing down prices

00:12:39.760 right so as long as both sides can make claims that are confusing and you can't discern what's true

00:12:47.600 then everybody can stay in power so confusion is not an accident

00:12:55.040 in government or in business confusion often probably more often than any other reason is for

00:13:01.360 the purpose of making you unable to discern what's going on that's his purpose anyway

00:13:09.760 anyway i was waiting for uh either uh jonathan turley or dershowitz to weigh in on this um british

00:13:18.080 broadcasting story trump is apparently going to sue them for a billion dollars he hasn't decided yet

00:13:24.400 probably be a lot and uh turley says that uh they just agrees with friends and colleagues who have

00:13:32.000 suggested that this would be an easy case to prove in a u.s court so what would be proven or not

00:13:38.640 is trump would uh say that they defamed him i guess that's the right word defamed and that they did it

00:13:46.800 intentionally so the intentional part or at least they should have known i think that ends up being

00:13:53.840 the same it's either intentional or you should have known it was going to happen i think they both apply

00:13:58.960 uh but this is legal stuff i'm not good at it so listen to listen to your podcasters who have also

00:14:05.040 been lawyers because it turns out there's a lot of them there's a lot of podcasters especially on the

00:14:10.880 right who at one point were lawyers i guess they're still lawyers um but do you agree do you think it

00:14:19.360 would be difficult to make the case i believe it might be nearly impossible so i'm going to agree with

00:14:25.680 turley which i always do by the way you know full disclosure if i had a different opinion than jonathan

00:14:32.560 turley on a legal question i would immediately uh abandon my position the the minute i found out

00:14:40.880 he had a different opinion i'd be like what's his opinion okay that's my opinion now same with

00:14:45.440 dershowitz i would just abandon my opinion immediately if they disagree but i also think that the problem

00:14:51.760 here is not that it happened that part will be easy to demonstrate and not that they didn't know

00:14:59.360 about it they might be able to prove that whoever did it was completely aware of what they were doing

00:15:05.600 in the sense that they knew it wasn't an exact quote but i think you have to go further to make your case

00:15:13.360 and i believe you have to show that you intentionally were trying to cause damage as far as i know there's

00:15:19.600 no document that shows that right is there any bbc email or text that says anything like uh well we'll

00:15:29.360 do it this way to damage trump i don't think that exists and without that i don't really know how you

00:15:37.200 can win that case but does trump need to win he does not

00:15:41.200 trump does not need to win he's created a situation where the threat alone might cause them to settle

00:15:54.000 and even if they don't settle and they decide to fight it out uh everybody else is going to look

00:15:59.760 at it and say oh that's some trouble i don't want so i think trump wins in every scenario

00:16:06.560 simply by putting the the fear of lawsuits into his enemies that feels like a really useful thing to

00:16:15.440 do if you're him you know in general i would think it would be a little unethical to just use the fear

00:16:23.680 of the courts as your main tool but in his specific case where he's been law fared from top to bottom and

00:16:31.200 impeached and every other weasel thing happened to him in his case yeah he can use the threat i think

00:16:37.520 that would be totally appropriate even if he makes some money on it

00:16:44.320 well you've all been wondering why trump had been so worthless on health care right and you kept saying

00:16:52.000 well you know it's not enough to say obamacare is bad we we're going to agree with you on that

00:16:59.600 but you're going to have to suggest something that's not bad i.e your job as the government

00:17:05.760 and so trump now has an outline for replacing what he calls a stupid obamacare and the key to that

00:17:14.560 according to modernity steve watson's writing about it the key to it is instead of giving money to

00:17:20.560 insurance companies he would or to yeah he would give it to the um patients and then they could

00:17:29.200 shop around and then the free market would kick in because uh because the customers would have some

00:17:36.720 kind of uh transparency on prices i think that's part of it somewhere and they the free market would

00:17:43.600 lower costs do you believe that do you believe that if the only thing that he did was change who

00:17:51.680 has the money in their pocket that that would change the cost of health care maybe over time

00:18:00.800 but probably not it doesn't really look like it's a game changer does it to you all right so

00:18:09.600 i feel like that's a little less than uh we need um and then other people said if you get rid of obamacare

00:18:22.240 then uh insurance companies won't take the high risk people because they wouldn't have to

00:18:27.760 part of obamacare is that they have to take the high risk people right they have to and that's partly what

00:18:34.240 raises costs well so that would just recreate that problem if obamacare is scrapped i don't know what

00:18:40.640 we'd do about that um and then i'm going to go back to my confuseopoly theme all right so now i've

00:18:48.800 described to you a trumpian kind of approach which is free market and who you give the money to and then

00:18:59.040 you wait blah blah now there are other parts to it but do you think you could actually compare that to

00:19:05.360 the alternative or would it all just be confusing i can't do it i mean i feel like i'm reasonably bright

00:19:15.680 and i actually care about the topic and i've looked into it at various times at various depths but i have

00:19:22.480 no idea i have no idea how to fix it i have no idea if trump has the best idea i've ever heard i have

00:19:30.160 no idea if there's some better way to fix obamacare and neither do you good do we agree that we do we're

00:19:37.280 just out of our depth but so is everybody else and if somebody if someone were not at their depth and

00:19:44.000 they really really understood this and had a great idea and brought it to you you wouldn't know it was a

00:19:48.480 great idea so how do you get from here to there if none of us can even evaluate the quality of the

00:19:55.920 idea which i think is where we're at it wouldn't be enough that there are some experts who could tell

00:20:01.520 the difference i don't even know if that's true i kind of doubt it i think even the experts would be

00:20:07.280 guessing on this one but a very interesting thing happened yesterday i don't know if any of you noticed

00:20:14.080 so yesterday at my podcast do you remember what i said about health care so get the get the timing of

00:20:22.240 this just because it's more fun this way i i was sort of frustrated and i said the only way i can even

00:20:29.520 imagine we would get affordable health care without ruining the country is that tesla would start a robot

00:20:38.080 hospital a robot hospital because you know elon had said we're getting closer and closer to the

00:20:44.240 the robot surgeon that will be way better than a human well i don't know how far away we are but if

00:20:51.520 we could save ourselves in health care within several years would that be soon enough if we could get way

00:21:02.000 low-cost health care with robots in let's say five years would we already be bankrupt by then

00:21:10.320 i'd be kind of close so here's what i'd like to see i've taught you this persuasion trick before right

00:21:17.520 okay only 10 more presents to wrap you're almost at the finish line but first

00:21:22.480 there the last one enjoy a coca-cola for a pause that refreshes here's a really important persuasion

00:21:38.800 trick and i hope i hope someone in the administration is paying attention um and i'm gonna i'm gonna put this

00:21:47.040 in the so this is something i learned in my corporate days and it goes like this whoever does the best job

00:21:55.680 of making a picture about the situation essentially rules the day if you could come up with a graph of

00:22:05.200 let's say climate change would that change anything oh yeah those climate change graphs changed everything

00:22:13.520 just everything when you see a graph of our national debt going through the ceiling does that change

00:22:19.840 anything oh yeah it does it does because when you see the picture it just changes everything now let's

00:22:26.800 talk about health care who had who has a picture of health care solution nobody there's no picture

00:22:35.680 that would show how we could ever survive health care costs the way they are and the way they'll be there's

00:22:41.680 no picture and so that means that that space is completely available for persuasion which means

00:22:51.360 that the team that's really good at this stuff which would be the republicans they have the wide open

00:22:58.320 space and there's a specific picture that they need to create and i'm going to describe it now but you know my

00:23:06.320 hands don't work so i'm not going to draw the picture so i'd like to see somebody take a run at it

00:23:12.160 and if several people take a run at it we'll just pick the best one but here's what the picture should

00:23:17.120 show it should show healthcare costs in the united states with a little bit of history so you can see them

00:23:24.560 zooming to the sky maybe maybe you also show the national debt screaming into unsustainable territory and that would be the do

00:23:36.000 nothing scenario but if you want to make a story where we're saved by robots which by the way i think

00:23:44.800 is nearly guaranteed it's closer to guaranteed if you wait long enough than it is to maybe would you agree

00:23:53.520 with that statement that the idea of robot medical care it's not an if it's definitely common we don't

00:24:02.640 know if it's a year or five years or ten years but it's definitely coming so you pick a time

00:24:07.520 that seems reasonable five years five years maybe ten and then you you show that the expenses for

00:24:15.760 healthcare are going through the roof and then in that fifth or tenth year whatever you thought was

00:24:20.320 reasonable you you show a plateau you know it's not completely flat but it flattens and then you show it dropping

00:24:27.680 down now why why would you show that because we feel right now the healthcare is hopeless that there's

00:24:37.200 nothing going to happen except it will go up unless we just take people off of healthcare which we don't

00:24:43.600 really want to do right we'd like everybody to be on there so i'd like one good persuasive picture

00:24:52.080 that shows that we do have a path out and it goes through probably tesla i mean you could even label

00:24:59.040 it tesla now i don't know that elon would object to the idea that either his company or one like it or

00:25:07.760 other companies in that domain would be the only way out the only way out there's no second way to do

00:25:14.480 this if there were a second way to do it it would be a whole different situation there's not there

00:25:21.200 might be one way and we might be lucky enough to be alive when that one opportunity just happens to

00:25:28.480 come along so if you want to change the world make one persuasive picture that shows yes we're in total

00:25:37.840 trouble now in the short run we'll just fund it as expensive as it is but we're going to try as hard

00:25:45.120 as possible to make sure that elon's vision of a robot nearly free healthcare world happens and that

00:25:53.280 might require some you know private plus government uh coordination i know you don't like the government

00:25:59.920 part but usually you need it all right what do you think of that idea so you've been living in this

00:26:05.680 world where where healthcare is the biggest problem it looks like uh but i just offered you something

00:26:12.240 that looks like a solution but you still have to way overpay for five to ten years before you got there

00:26:20.000 that's still better than no solution right even if it takes a few years because you could you could

00:26:27.120 subsidize it if you knew we were rapidly approaching the place where robots make everything

00:26:32.480 almost free that's that's what elon thinks that we'll get to the point where of such abundance

00:26:40.400 because of robots and ai that everybody will have everything so anyway you got really quiet in the comments

00:26:51.600 i can't tell if you think that's a good idea or you're thinking about it

00:26:54.480 well here's the way you should evaluate it there's somebody who just keeps writing in all caps stupid idea 0.53

00:27:08.240 so you know i know what the npcs are going to say scott i'm an npc and the important thing is that

00:27:16.800 the government should not be involved in anything scott i'm an npc and you can't give elon musk

00:27:24.160 any more any more sway over the economy scott all right so we'll figure to forget about you all caps guy

00:27:34.880 all right let me just make sure i'm seeing your comments here

00:27:37.360 all right but you here's the way to evaluate that you should not evaluate it based on a perfect idea

00:27:48.400 that's what the npcs do did i suggest a perfect idea no no it's not perfect uh did i

00:27:59.680 did i did i suggest an idea that we hadn't seriously thought about yes is it an idea that you could

00:28:07.520 imagine and it takes some imagination that you could imagine it it could help work things out and we'd all

00:28:14.560 get health care yes you can imagine it right so if there's literally one and only one plan on the table

00:28:22.560 and i believe there is it's this we we overpay for health care in the short run just we have it

00:28:30.800 but we work as hard and as fast as possible to make sure that the cost of health care drops to zero

00:28:37.520 or close to it with robots you tell me you have a better idea and you know what i'm going to say

00:28:43.840 that's a confusopoly is my idea confusing does everybody understand short run you overpay

00:28:52.080 everybody knows what overpaying is long run robots come in and lower the cost everybody knows what a

00:28:59.680 robot is everybody knows what lowering cost is so now i have the simplest idea the easiest one to explain

00:29:07.360 it covers the short run which is going to be unpleasant but that would be true of every plan

00:29:12.960 in every plan the short run is unpleasant so if you say to me but scott you've solved nothing in the

00:29:20.480 short run i would say that is common to all plans nobody has a nobody has a short-term plan but if

00:29:27.520 there's only one long-term plan you're gonna have to beat it right you're gonna have to come up with

00:29:33.680 an idea that's better than that i haven't heard one have you so here's the interesting thing that just

00:29:40.960 three hours after i said the only way to solve this is tesla robot hospitals that's basically what elon said

00:29:50.480 at a uh convention he was at um he said uh basically he said that will you know the doctors don't grow on

00:30:01.600 trees but that they will be built in factories which is a great line let me let me say it again this is just

00:30:09.920 a great line that doctors don't grow on trees but in the robot world they will be built in factories 0.59

00:30:19.440 that's a really good reframe all right there's a whole bunch of other tesla news i thought was

00:30:24.480 interesting i didn't know this but apparently tesla is moving quickly toward its american built cars

00:30:31.760 having no chinese parts now that's only for the american built cars how smart is it that tesla is

00:30:40.640 moving first to make just the american built cars have no chinese parts well i think that's really

00:30:48.960 smart because if something blows up in the supply chain you'd certainly want america to be something

00:30:56.240 you could um let's say retreat to and say all right well we still have america you know so it'd

00:31:01.920 still be a viable company and you can build from there so yes that's exactly where you want to start

00:31:07.440 with no chinese parts american built cars because they build cars in other countries um

00:31:15.680 get no frills delivered shop the same in-store prices online and enjoy unlimited delivery with pc

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00:31:32.480 and uh also elon musk says that they've mapped on a plan to put 100 gigawatts per year of solar

00:31:41.120 powered ai satellites into orbit um i saw this on a post by nick uh cruz patain who's a real good

00:31:49.920 follow on all the tesla stuff nick cruz patain anyway um this is what elon said he said we see a

00:31:57.120 path to putting 100 gigawatts per year of solar powered i think that's like a quarter of all the

00:32:03.920 energy used in the entire country and he's looking to put that much up per year because the amount of

00:32:10.720 energy we're going to use is almost incalculable so we're not we're not going to have too much

00:32:15.840 um and apparently what they can do is just put a bunch of satellites in the air and network them 0.80

00:32:22.640 together which they already know how to do they have all the components for that and uh

00:32:28.960 and he pointed out that the united states consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year

00:32:34.800 so he wants to put a hundred gigawatts into the air every year over the united states when we're only

00:32:43.040 using so it's like a little more or a little less than a quarter of that uh anyway and he says we

00:32:50.720 have a plan mapped out to do it so it gets crazy so this is not hypothetical it's not hypothetical he's

00:32:58.960 literally gonna make tesla the biggest energy company in the world it looks like it's gonna happen any

00:33:04.640 moment now now i i want to give credit to the person who made this uh recommendation to me several

00:33:13.280 years ago but i think i'll wait to talk to him to see if he wants his name mentioned but a very

00:33:19.200 successful investor once said on x that you should look at tesla as a energy company

00:33:27.440 and i thought to myself what an energy company i don't quite get that now i get it now i get it

00:33:38.960 it he can very easily the energy company could be i don't know it could be bigger than robots

00:33:45.920 i imagine uh so we'll see anyway i'll ask if i can use his name because that was that was a really

00:33:53.280 interesting reframe that that tesla was an energy company well also tesla uh they're designing

00:34:01.840 something called the a5 chip that they will use in their robots in their cars but what's interesting

00:34:07.680 is i guess they had some problems trying to make this chip and they had two chip projects going on at

00:34:14.480 the same time and elon decided to collapse him into one program which is now doing better

00:34:19.920 i i think he got involved directly as he likes to do and maybe work that out but he actually predicts

00:34:26.640 that their chip would be better than nvidia's and that it would be 10 the cost of an nvidia chip

00:34:35.840 and two to three times uh at least he said two to three times better what wait what are you serious

00:34:46.320 are you telling me that nvidia is like the the class of all chip making people like nobody can

00:34:53.760 nobody can even copy them they're so good they're uncopyable the entire country of china with all of

00:35:00.160 its technical prowess can't match nvidia and elon just sits there in a chair they turn the camera on he's

00:35:07.920 like yeah we're building one that's three to three times better and it'll be about 10 of the cost

00:35:12.640 wait what what are you serious 10 of the cost and two to three times better than the best thing that's

00:35:21.840 ever existed is that even possible yes yep if anyone else said that wouldn't you say yeah sure prove it

00:35:34.240 you might not you know bet against it but you wouldn't think it's likely would you but when elon

00:35:41.760 musk who as far as i know is not known as a chip designer manufacturer fab kind of a guy he just enters

00:35:50.640 the market and he's going to completely dominate it in how long a few months how long is that going to

00:35:58.480 take i don't even know how to evaluate that that has such a big claim but yet possible

00:36:07.600 so everything that you think you can predict about ai and robots in the future and health care i don't

00:36:14.800 think any of this is predictable because who saw this coming who saw that coming anyway so at that

00:36:23.280 same event that's where elon said that they do plan to build robot robot hospitals so i wasn't crazy

00:36:32.400 that that might be our only path out now i think elon's been quiet about this he's got so many things

00:36:40.560 going on that he has lots to talk about no matter where he is and what he's talking about so it could

00:36:45.920 be that he was just waiting for the right time maybe this is the right time but my goodness he's going to

00:36:52.400 solve health care energy and chips and robots and self-driving cars and that's just this year what's he

00:37:04.400 going to do next year good lord anyway um so that's happening

00:37:13.760 i i would go further and say that unless we use robots to solve our health care and our affordability

00:37:25.280 that we're heading towards certain doom the civilization is on a path toward guaranteed

00:37:32.320 destruction by essentially overspending if we just keep doing what we're doing

00:37:38.240 or if we even try to tweak it a little bit we're all dead basically it's not a tweakable situation

00:37:45.360 you would have to do something so fundamentally different than what the economy is doing now

00:37:51.360 or you'd have no chance of survival really you would just spend ourselves into oblivion but with robots

00:38:00.720 suddenly we do have a path out and it's not a crazy path it's it's one that looks like

00:38:07.280 something the smart people can figure out so watching the smart people try to save civilization

00:38:15.920 is kind of inspiring you know what i mean because you know if let's say you were one of the

00:38:23.360 captains of industry you know you're a musk or a bezos or you're a mark cuban or you know you can

00:38:31.760 throw in some other names wouldn't you feel a responsibility to save the world

00:38:36.640 because it looks like it's not going to save itself and there's a very small group of people who might

00:38:42.080 have the capability to really get in there and re-engineer things

00:38:49.760 if i were in that situation i would feel that i had to get involved it looks like that's what's driving

00:38:57.280 elon that he must be completely aware that nobody else is going to solve this problem

00:39:01.760 and i mean maybe maybe somebody else could but i wouldn't be betting on it

00:39:09.520 anyway robots coming

00:39:10.800 elon also said he doesn't own any vacation homes he just has one medium-sized house in austin and a tiny

00:39:20.720 one at starbase and when he takes his friends there they don't believe it's real that they think it's

00:39:25.760 a prank uh really this is your house how much would you love to see his medium-sized house

00:39:35.120 i would love i would love that that would be like better than a museum

00:39:38.400 like just just look around it's like okay what kind of games you got be so interesting well bill

00:39:46.240 maher was on last night and then we can all be mad at each other because mentioning bill maher gives

00:39:52.480 him more attention some of you don't like it if he gets too much attention but i love watching his

00:39:58.640 you know his arc of uh figuring out what is real and what isn't that's really interesting to

00:40:05.200 me because he's doing a really good job of trying to burrow through the bullshit to get to some kind

00:40:10.960 of truth he's not at truth he's definitely not there but the amount of effort and risk he's putting

00:40:17.760 into trying to find there is actually inspiring and i i appreciate i appreciate the risk he takes to try

00:40:25.040 to find it so last night on his show he went after uh zoran momdami pretty hard with a brutal history

00:40:32.240 on socialism and how it always fails and ends up in disaster and he was very clear

00:40:40.640 that momdami is a disaster waiting to happen that's their side right now do you respect that 1.00

00:40:49.520 do you respect that bill maher is taking the the darling of his own team and saying don't you understand

00:40:57.040 that this is not just a problem but you're talking about the end of civilization if this kind of

00:41:04.640 thinking takes over and that's exactly what i'd like to see coming from the the people who can make

00:41:11.360 a difference and more somebody who can make a difference um so i guess president trump said he's

00:41:18.400 withdrawing his support from marjorie taylor green because she's not she's not supportive enough of him

00:41:24.720 and uh i wasn't sure what that was all about besides the epstein files she wants all the epstein files 0.86

00:41:31.360 released he doesn't but also the democrats don't want them released the democrats just voted against

00:41:37.920 releasing them right so in what world do trump and the democrats come down on the same side

00:41:46.720 that they both don't want to release the epstein files now i'm told that the democrats have some

00:41:51.680 you know word salad the negotiating thing that's the reason they said no to releasing them like they're

00:41:59.360 they're trying to guess something in return but that didn't sound real to me it sounded like an excuse

00:42:05.360 not to release them everything sounds like an excuse not to release them actually no matter who you're

00:42:10.880 talking to anyway so the other differences with marjorie taylor green and the president are

00:42:17.040 uh involvement in foreign wars such as gaza um the epstein files health care she's she thinks she 0.99

00:42:25.680 he should do more in health care as do all of us and inflation and prices and stuff like that but i

00:42:31.760 don't know what else he could be doing frankly don't know what he could be doing but here's my take on all

00:42:37.520 that i i feel like i'm not going to take sides on any of that um i just don't like taking sides when i like

00:42:45.440 both sides i like president trump and i like marjorie taylor green and i like a lot of the people who

00:42:53.920 are battling each other you know candace against whoever and uh tucker against whoever and you know

00:43:01.680 so it's hard to get past especially the ones i've met you know there are a few of them i've met personally

00:43:07.440 once you meet somebody personally and they're nice to you and they're warm and they're completely open to

00:43:13.760 you it's really hard to slam them in public i know that's you could argue that's you know sort of what

00:43:21.040 i should be doing but i don't know i just can't do it just can't do it so i'm gonna i'm just gonna

00:43:29.360 say of all the all the personal drama you might want to pay attention to it for fun but wouldn't take it

00:43:37.280 too seriously it just weakens your own team so don't take it too seriously ontario the wait is

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00:44:46.080 callie means is i guess he would be an activist i hope that's the right word he wouldn't mind an

00:44:54.000 activist uh against uh big pharma and big food and some of their abuses anyway here's a claim he made

00:45:01.600 he was talking to megan kelly at some event um about the uh make america healthy again movement he said

00:45:08.480 that there's this is unbelievable i mean i believe it because of the source but he says there's a cia

00:45:15.120 manuals being sent to all employees in the make america healthy sort of world and they're sending around

00:45:22.000 the cia manual called i can't believe this is true it's a little too on the nose but the source is good

00:45:32.000 so but it is too on the nose this uh allegedly the cia manual is how to be a bad bureaucrat and subvert

00:45:41.200 an institution from within okay i think i'm talking myself i don't believe in this

00:45:47.040 isn't that a little bit too a little bit too perfect right so i'm going to put a question mark

00:45:56.080 on this i do believe that kelly means his high high credibility i don't believe that he would mislead you

00:46:03.120 intentionally and that's not his thing at all so but he could have some bad information anybody could

00:46:09.680 uh and uh apparently people are saying that 90 percent of the employees at health and her human

00:46:17.360 services um are talking about this thing and they're afraid that rfk jr and trump are anti-science so

00:46:25.760 they have to save the planet from these anti-science guys i don't know so i i guess i'm going to put a

00:46:35.920 question mark on this one uh and the question mark is not about the people involved i think they're all

00:46:41.600 high credibility and high value added people i just don't know if the document is real it might exist

00:46:50.400 but it doesn't mean it came from the cia i don't know if they would even deny it

00:46:56.000 anyway as you know there's a whole bunch of epstein files got released 20 000 files with 1500 trump

00:47:03.040 mentions 1500 trump mentions now i realize people talk about trump a lot but even my emails don't have

00:47:11.600 1500 trump messages and i talk about them all the time 1500 oh um and uh alan dershowitz was saying

00:47:24.080 on a podcast that the media is intentionally twisting the facts of the epstein case to smear trump and he

00:47:31.040 gives an example um he said that the newly surfaced emails there's a one detail that the press leaves

00:47:40.080 out now when i tell you what the press leaves out you're going to shake your head and some of you are

00:47:48.720 lost in the confusedopoly of this story so you may have missed this little point here's just a minor point

00:47:55.440 one of the most damning and provocative things so far is the claim that virginia joffrey joffrey she was

00:48:04.160 one of the known victims of uh of epstein that there's a claim that trump spent hours with her

00:48:12.960 it's also true that virginia joffrey has said publicly that she never met trump

00:48:18.320 so her claim before she passed away tragically recently is her claim is that she never met him

00:48:26.960 but apparently there's something in some document that said they spent hours together

00:48:31.680 who do you believe i i feel like i believe her

00:48:38.160 or at least it adds enough uh doubt into the story that you should put that in there but can you believe

00:48:44.160 that the media doesn't mention that she's denied ever meeting him much less spending hours with him

00:48:54.160 so i mean it's not like you would forget if you'd met trump and spend several hours with you wouldn't

00:49:00.000 forget so i agree with the dershowitz that sounds like a intentional smearing of trump

00:49:07.840 um i saw pj media saying this says it all that the democrats blocked the release of the epstein files

00:49:16.480 matt margolis is writing about this um do you what do you think that's telling you the fact that the

00:49:24.160 democrats didn't want it released is it telling you that there's nothing damning about trump

00:49:32.000 because if they release it you can see there's nothing damning or uh or what like why would they

00:49:42.000 not release it they would be better off with the uncertainty that there's something in there

00:49:46.640 if they knew for sure there was nothing in there and as many have pointed out i think matt does too

00:49:52.240 that if there was anything in there that was bad for trump you think the democrats wouldn't have

00:49:57.440 already found it and released it so there's a strong suggestion that there's nothing about trump

00:50:04.880 that's bad so why would trump want it not to be released well dershowitz gives you the perfect reason

00:50:14.160 according to dershowitz if you release real information the illegitimate press will just change it

00:50:22.080 and act like it's something it's not that's what they did with the virginia joffrey thing

00:50:26.560 they took a real thing and they just changed it to a fake thing and nobody's going to research it

00:50:34.000 so they're just going to turn on the news they're going to hear msnbc's version of it

00:50:39.040 they're going to turn it off and think that's the reality but not so yeah so why would the democrats

00:50:47.840 block it unless they were up to no good they wouldn't block it to protect trump

00:50:52.880 so therefore there must be nothing in there that would hurt him but there might be things in there

00:50:58.160 that would hurt other people and there might be things in there that could be misinterpreted easily

00:51:02.560 which would be just as much a problem

00:51:08.400 anyway um

00:51:13.040 yeah anyway so trump apparently going on the offense as he likes to

00:51:16.960 he's asking the department of justice to look into a few billionaires and other just rich people

00:51:25.440 who had connections to epstein he actually named names now i wouldn't talk about this except the

00:51:32.080 president named the names uh to me this sounds totally inappropriate to accuse them because as far

00:51:39.120 as i know there's no evidence of specific wrongdoing so trump named bill clinton reid hoffman larry summers

00:51:47.600 and he called and he says jp morgan chase so i guess that means some executives unnamed and uh he says

00:51:54.240 records show they spent a lot of time on the island i don't know if that's true they might have spent more

00:51:59.120 time on the plane than the island but um as far as i know none of them have specific claims of wrongdoing

00:52:08.480 right there are people who speculate but i don't believe there's any like witness or whistleblower

00:52:17.360 or anything like that so i'm always uncomfortable naming names when they're there's just no criminal

00:52:23.680 evidence of anything now i'm not comfortable with the president asking the department of justice to look

00:52:31.120 for a crime when there's not some smoking gun there and i don't know is it is it a smoking gun enough

00:52:40.080 that they spend time together well it would if you were in a cartel right if you were a cartel member

00:52:48.160 uh or let's say somebody discovered you were in a cartel you don't think that maybe they'd get a little

00:52:54.000 extra scrutiny yeah so it makes sense that your associations might raise a red flag but is this

00:53:04.480 enough of a red flag now i'm curious so i would like to know the answer too but i don't know this is

00:53:12.240 mighty close mighty close to violating some kind of basic right but i'm no lawyer so we don't know if

00:53:20.400 trump's going strictly for revenge it's a distraction to be a good distraction uh or is it a warning to

00:53:27.520 other people who might be in the file that you better help me keep that sealed it might be a

00:53:32.640 warning to the people in the file it might be his way to tell these uh three or four people uh on this

00:53:40.080 on this particular issue we're sort of on the same page and if you don't want to be the one who's

00:53:47.040 investigated you might want to join me in saying these should not be released but what did reed

00:53:52.480 hoffman do cleverly reed hoffman said today trump should release all the epstein files

00:53:59.680 every person in every document and he sort of suggested that trump was using these rich democrats

00:54:07.920 as sort of a stalling technique so he was just stalling maybe maybe so i think reed hoffman played it

00:54:16.480 right because he might know that they're not going to be released uh which would be playing it right

00:54:23.520 because then he looks he looks innocent because he's calling for full transparency whoever it is

00:54:28.480 who calls for full transparency you just assume they must be innocent so if he knows then no matter

00:54:36.720 what he says or does they're not going to be released anyway and he might know that

00:54:40.880 then the best play you could ever make is to say release those files they should all be released

00:54:48.240 that would be a good play but again i say there's no evidence whatsoever that any of the people named

00:54:53.440 including reed hoffman did anything inappropriate or illegal on the island all right

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00:55:25.200 at onepeloton.com uh apparently some prison staffers at wherever jelaine maxwell is being held at the

00:55:34.560 moment they hacked into her emails i guess that would be prison emails uh and then gave the copies of

00:55:41.680 her emails to uh representative raskin have you noticed that wherever raskin is there's something

00:55:48.800 sketchy happening every time you see his name you're like oh god this is gonna be sketchy and sure enough

00:55:58.560 he uh claimed to be a whistleblower i don't know if that's a legitimate claim but under that umbrella

00:56:05.360 you got these emails what did it say uh and i guess the staffers who did this were fired the ones who

00:56:13.520 really who who leaked it um and it said something that was interesting

00:56:24.640 um the release is

00:56:27.600 was there nothing in the emails uh

00:56:36.960 maybe the emails were so uninteresting that i didn't care

00:56:40.480 i went um

00:56:43.280 oh i guess the emails uh sort of suggested according to raskin that she was angling for a pardon

00:56:50.320 or whatever sentence commuted to which i say how's that a story if you were in jail for

00:56:59.760 you know lots of years and lots of years to go

00:57:04.560 aren't you always angling for a commutation or a or a pardon wouldn't it be more of a story if she were not 0.77

00:57:11.440 not now i'm going to use my uh george carlin example again where he says you don't have to actually

00:57:19.760 say the words to somebody you're colluding with if they know what you need

00:57:24.240 obviously the trump administration knows she would like a pardon or a commutation 0.99

00:57:30.240 right obviously you know it i know it everybody knows it would they have to say it would it be necessary that she said it directly

00:57:38.800 not really we all know that she wants one why wouldn't she there's no argument in the other direction

00:57:45.520 so yeah of course she wants one so that's a nothing story except for the raskin part being a weasel

00:57:51.680 uh germany is buying 150 million dollars of weapons to give to ukraine um it makes me wonder if the cost

00:58:03.040 of warfare is coming down over time um because we're in a weird phase of history where we're shifting from

00:58:11.920 you know tanks and artillery to more drones are the drones cheaper are we getting as much of a war done

00:58:21.120 ukraine i guess are they getting as much of war done as they would if they spent more money and had

00:58:28.320 more traditional weapons so one of my questions is is the general cost of warfare whether it's ukraine

00:58:35.680 or anyone ever anything else is the cost of where warfare coming down because the the tools are different

00:58:43.200 i don't know maybe and then i looked up the uh i've been obsessed about this a little bit lately

00:58:50.000 why we don't see reporting on the number of casualties anymore have you noticed that so

00:58:56.960 we've got this big war ukraine and russia and we're worried that it might turn into a world war

00:59:03.120 and i don't know how many people are being killed isn't that like super obviously missing in the

00:59:10.800 reporting what what would be the more important number than well this week x number of ukrainians

00:59:17.600 were injured and killed why is everybody leaving that out so i went to grok and started asking some

00:59:26.000 questions but then i thought oh i don't know if any of these answers are real i don't know if it's

00:59:31.520 hallucinating grok did start off by saying that the numbers are totally unreliable no matter no matter

00:59:40.160 what source you use you should take it with a grain of salt but i also wondered what is the range

00:59:46.640 like can you give me a range at all now why is somebody writing n-n-n-n-n-n-o-o-o-l over and over

00:59:57.600 again in my comments like what's that stop doing that it's bugging me

01:00:04.000 if it meant something that'd be better but anyway grok tells me and you can fact check me on this

01:00:12.320 that uh something like uh three to ten thousand people a week are being killed

01:00:18.720 some combination of russians and ukrainians does that sound right to you three do you believe that

01:00:26.240 three to ten thousand are dying per week and that they don't report that

01:00:31.120 that doesn't seem right so i have a suspicion which is completely

01:00:38.400 without data that maybe the actual death rate is way lower than we think

01:00:47.040 still terrible still bad still lots of injuries but it might be we might have a drone war where there

01:00:54.320 are far more injuries than our deaths because a lot of the drone stuff is to injure and maim

01:00:59.680 it's not all deadly so i wonder if we went to well we didn't actually kill too many russians 0.98

01:01:08.480 but we maimed 20 000. maybe they wouldn't report that would they so it's a little bit sketchy that

01:01:17.920 somebody you know germany is giving them 150 million but they probably don't have any idea

01:01:23.120 how many ukrainians or russians are dying the most important data

01:01:30.960 so um and then i saw another survey again you can't really trust anything that comes out of that

01:01:36.960 area that said that uh in ukraine something like 90 of the population uh has some close contact with

01:01:45.680 somebody who was injured during the war injured or killed 90 percent that'll that'll certainly have an

01:01:53.520 impact whereas a survey says russia has only 30 of its population had some direct family tie

01:02:01.760 to some some death or injury i don't know if you believe any of those numbers

01:02:06.400 but we'll see um i saw an argument today that i thought was interesting there's a yale professor

01:02:17.120 um whose name is we'll get to it um markovitz and he's got this argument that merit is a myth used to

01:02:30.480 justify inequality that the idea of merit is sort of a trick and that there's no such thing as merit

01:02:40.560 we just use it to justify our own getting more than other people

01:02:46.480 oh that the chat ended that's what's going on all right let's try something else

01:02:52.000 this will work wow that works okay much better anyway so i wonder what what is the argument that

01:03:03.600 meritocracy is a myth because most of my worldview is built around meritocracy i i hate to find out

01:03:11.120 that my worldview was built on the myth so i thought i'm gonna look into this a little bit so it might be

01:03:16.960 a little bit of word salad going on here because you know yale law professor but he says that quote

01:03:23.440 any idea that merit makes inequality deserved is a circle what merit isn't a real virtue it's just an

01:03:31.520 ideological conceit constructed to launder otherwise offensive inequalities what

01:03:38.720 what what what do any of those words mean i i feel like if i you know diagrammed it out i might be able

01:03:48.400 to understand what he's saying but here's a general statement if the clearest you can make your argument

01:03:57.040 is this you don't really have an argument no no unless you can be a little bit clearer than that

01:04:04.640 i'm sorry i can't take it too seriously but then he had a good point that made me reassess

01:04:12.880 he pointed out that merit is highly driven not entirely but highly driven by your parental resources

01:04:22.880 and then i said oh okay now now you're talking that's a reasonable a reasonable point of view so if

01:04:31.360 you are rich for example uh more likely you will be funded to go to a good school you'll be in a good

01:04:39.920 neighborhood you know less crime less drugs i don't know about the drugs but uh there should be a

01:04:46.720 gigantic difference in meritocracy meaning that some people who have the the brains and the ambition will

01:04:53.680 also have the the parental backing and some won't and that that difference could make all the difference

01:05:00.720 that's not a bad that's not a terrible opinion so i started out thinking that i was just going to

01:05:07.920 sort of mock this point of view because i like meritocracy and anybody's arguing against it is

01:05:13.520 going to be a fool but that's actually a reasonably good point isn't it that your meritocracy won't go

01:05:20.480 that far unless you've got some resources behind it now in my in my case

01:05:26.320 uh i came from a generation where you didn't need that many resources behind it you could still work

01:05:32.320 it out you know that would that would have been my case but at the moment in the current world

01:05:38.480 yeah it does seem like the resources your parents put into it are going to drive your success of your

01:05:44.960 meritocracy so wasn't expecting to have my mind changed by that but maybe it was a little bit i mean

01:05:53.440 i don't know that i would do anything differently but it changes my frame on it a little bit and we

01:05:59.360 are done with the prepared part of my presentation look at my timing it's amazing and uh owen gregorian

01:06:07.840 will be setting up his spaces event in a few minutes i'm going to talk to the people on locals privately

01:06:15.440 for a few minutes and uh i will see you tomorrow same time same place okay everybody in are you all in

01:06:25.200 for tomorrow okay all right locals i'm going to come at you privately in 30 seconds

01:06:37.840 of you i'm going to get your answers we need to go and find out the pakistan's body

01:06:46.800 now thank you

01:06:47.520 that's how you would love equ Kris Kim

01:06:52.960 and wik Kris Kim

01:06:58.560 you

01:07:07.840 Thank you.

01:07:37.840 Thank you.

01:08:07.840 Thank you.

01:08:37.840 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 15, 2025

Episode 3019 CWSA 11⧸15⧸25

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