Episode 3032 CWSA 11⧸30⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 9 minutes
Words per Minute
129.50664
Summary
This is a funny story about poop bags and universal basic income, and a story about a robot that can make batteries obsolete, and some dad gift ideas for the post-millenial. Today's episode is brought to you by Coffee with Scott Adams, the podcast about the dopamine hit of the day that makes everything better.
Transcript
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morning everybody come on in i know you're just on time we're gonna hang out a little bit this
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morning because well you missed you missed each other and i missed you too come on and grab a seat
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so later maybe later today i'm going to do a separate video with some dad gift ideas
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wouldn't that be great some dad gift ideas now obviously you know you need to get the
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dilbert uh calendar for any dad who's ever worked in an office
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i guarantee this is going to work for any dad who ever worked in an office
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only available on amazon get them before they sell out but i've got some other great ideas
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that are not all my products you'll love them you guys ready for this are you ready
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good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called
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coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance
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on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny
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human brains all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass of tanker chalice a stein a canteen
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jug or a flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now
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for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better
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it's called the simultaneous sip famous around the world happens now
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uh-huh that was as good as i imagined it would be wow
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well do you believe believe it or not by the way i'll be doing a little bit more npr talk today
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as i recover my full ability and energy which is moving in the right direction but there's a story
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according to the cool down which must be a publication of some sort that scientists have achieved a
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breakthrough that could make batteries obsolete apparently has something to do with
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um the barrier between salt water and regular water and somehow they can use the difference the you
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know chemical or electrical difference difference between salt water and regular water so as long as
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you have the two of them you can create electricity and apparently lots of it do you believe that
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that it sounds exactly like a april fool's prank that you can make infinite energy and a water just
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something that has to be salt water i'm going to say feels a little optimistic but i remind you
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that there seems to be a battery related energy breakthrough almost every day so sooner or later
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one of them will work well in chicago according to futurism um i guess there are two startups that
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have these little robots that are on the sidewalks delivering things and you know that's not new you
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you know there have been startups that tried to have little robots on the sidewalks and
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i guess none of them have really worked but they keep trying but here's the funny part of the story
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the only the only reason i'm telling you this story is that people who don't like the robots
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are putting their dog poop bag on top of the robot
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so if you're out walking your dog and you you don't want to carry the poop bag around
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and the robot goes by you just put it on top of the robot and the robot takes your poop away now i do not
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recommend this it's kind of a messed up thing to do especially especially if it's delivering food
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you wouldn't want your food to be delivered with a poop bag on top but while i don't recommend it
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and i discourage it it doesn't make it less funny
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that's the important part all right um i think i haven't seen this before but it's worth mentioning
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i guess elon musk i think he was on joe rogan maybe some other podcast and he said that grok is the only ai
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that weighs all human lives equally i guess some of the other ais uh value uh adult white males
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lower than the rest of society and that's the technology that we're we're letting loose on the
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world yeah maybe maybe we ought to have a look at that so apparently grok's the only one
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one and uh that's based on an actual study um but uh that's pretty alarming is it it's alarming to even
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to even imagine that that's an issue right oh what is this behind my shoulder looks like product
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placement the dillbert calendar is sitting right back there twice as good as ever before
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well in chicago now this is a funny story too according to the post millennial they're covering
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this uh chicago i guess they tested ubi universal basic income where they literally just give money
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to people who don't have money and they try to you know see if that'll make their life better and make
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the world better well they they just ended up testing 500 a month in cash and guess what they concluded
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well they concluded that people really like getting 500 in cash for doing no work
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so they called it a success and said they're going to do more of it that's right the the standard for
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judging whether it was successful was whether the people who got the free money were happy about it
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i'm not making that up turns out that people are happy when you give them free money
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who do maybe you could have asked me all right um apparently the state department
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is doing far fewer press briefings than than before to which i ask why would you do any what what would
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the state department tell you that trump wouldn't tell you it seems like if you have more than one
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you know government entity that's doing important press briefings in addition to trump that all it does is
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create a opportunity for something to look like a misinterpretation or or a conflict so why would you
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ever have a press briefing from the state department as long as trump can cover all that same material which
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he does you know anything that matters so yeah that's smart smart not to have them
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um well apparently the defense department or the is it called the department of war now i don't know
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um they've confirmed that 11 billion dollars which is only a small fraction of the real number has been
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stolen 11 billion dollars since 2017 uh and according to the gao it's only a small fraction
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of how much has been stolen of your tax money just just the stuff that was going to the department of defense
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um so the the pentagon which spends about a trillion dollars a year has never passed an audit
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you know i've said this before but when you look at the number of expensive homes and expensive cars
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it doesn't really map to my understanding of how many legitimate jobs there are in the world
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that you can make that much money it looks like i mean i've been feeling this for a long time
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that we're primarily a corruption economy not primarily but that maybe something like
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20 percent of the entire gdp is criminal i don't know how big it is but every time we we look at any
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entity that has a budget doesn't it always look the same like every time there's a big budget be it
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minneapolis be it the department of defense be it the ngos be it the usa id every time there's a big budget
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that it's being stolen that new york city's budget the city budgets every time if we could solve one
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problem which is the ability to audit where our money goes
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everything would be different so it feels it feels like it feels like what the trump administration
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needs to do i don't even know if it's doable is to find some way to insist that nobody ever gets a
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budget for anything unless there's a really dynamic auditing feature where everybody can see where every
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dollar goes short of that it's just all being stolen it doesn't matter if it's money for ukraine or money for
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poor people or money for a disease or money for covet every single time every time it's being stolen
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as a you know as a developed country we can't figure out how to audit our stuff
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i mean it's crazy it's crazy anyway here are some examples a pentagon contractor
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i guess one of the ways or maybe the main way that this kind of money is stolen is there's kickbacks
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for for sending money in one direction versus another there are all these shell companies that
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are like fake companies pretending to do things that you would get money for but not really doing
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those things canada can be a global leader in reducing the harm caused by smoking but it requires
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actionable steps now is the time to modernize canadian laws so that adult smokers have information and
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access to better alternatives by doing so we can create lasting change if you don't smoke don't start
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if you smoke quit if you don't quit change visit unsmoke.ca well in other news um gateway pundit is
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reporting that uh the u.s treasury so that would be scott the best end is uh is going to start seizing
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remittances so remittances in this context is talking about uh people who are usually
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usually non-citizens they don't have to be non-citizens but they're sending money back to their home
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country or wherever they came from now on one hand i like freedom and i think people should be able to
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do whatever they want with their money you know assuming it's legally obtained on the other hand
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there's a really good reason or argument for limiting the ability for people to make money in the
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u.s and then send that money somewhere else that doesn't help us it helps wherever you're sending
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it but it doesn't help us so if you were to tax those remittances um you know at least you get
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something out of it or if you were to block them or cap them it probably would be a good idea for the
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united states so i don't i don't know how big that number is but it's a lot of money and if we could
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just um if those dollars would simply stay circulating within the u.s economy you know you have a you have
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a multiplier effect so the dollar spent goes to another american who now has a dollar who spends it
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that goes to another american well if you take that and you you create a leak where that dollar
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just leaves our system then it never has any multiplier effect so you don't lose a dollar you
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lose like i don't know the multiplier would probably be 10 maybe 10 to 1 i don't know what the real number
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is but it's a lot so just letting a dollar leave our system to go back to the home country that one
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dollar is like ten dollars in terms of gdp over time so yeah velocity exactly somebody took an economics
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course yeah velocity is what we're talking about and let's see so i guess we're going to flag
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uh anything that's over two thousand dollars that probably will go down over time that's a lot of
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money actually sending back to the home country well now trump has uh put a pause on the u.s immigration
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uh permanent pause well i don't know how permanent it is uh from third world countries
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now do you remember when trump tried the uh the so-called muslim ban and that didn't work out so he
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modified it and then it worked out um why did he never try third world ban it does seem like that would
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capture everything you didn't want you know that the third world would capture kind of all kinds of
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situations and if he needed i suppose if he needed to make an exception it wouldn't be that hard but it
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seems kind of clean to just say we don't let people from third world countries in unless it's a special
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situation because i don't know how much is helping us now the other factors that
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are impossible to predict are the effect of decreasing population you know our reproduction rate is below
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replacement so it's not like we're going to be able to get away with not importing people unless
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the robot revolution is so fast that we just never need to import another person and then we would
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slowly turn into a robot country uh oh i just realized that's probably what's going to happen
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okay uh work with me here so let's say that uh we limit migration immigration into the country and let's say
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that our um our repopulation rate stays below replacement there would be fewer humans every day
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but because we're at the beginning of the robot revolution there would be more robots every day
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now in the beginning we're going to say humans are humans and robots are robots and they're just tools
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but as those robots become more and more human-like which is guaranteed and it's going to happen fast
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will we so easily call the robots tools and the humans the important thing when the number of robots
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starts surpassing the number of humans what happens when the united states becomes 90 percent humanoid robots
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doing all the things that humans do and 10 percent humans are we destined to become a robot only country
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you know that could happen right in in the real world there's a possibility that sometime maybe even in
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your lifetime uh well not in your lifetime probably but there's a real possibility that the united states
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will be only populated by humanoid robots that can also reproduce what would stop that from happening
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right all the trends are in that direction our population will reduce our immigration will go to zero
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and the number of robots that are you know indistinguishable from humans basically will start at zero
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but it's going to go to millions you know within just a few short years
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so robot nation coming up there is a rumor this morning that i do not believe is true there's no
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confirmation for it but i'll just tell you the rumor the rumors that uh venezuelan leader maduro
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may have tried to escape venezuela in an airplane that apparently is known to be his airplane
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but there is no confirmation of anything of the sort so the news is not treating it like that's a real
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story yet so i would say that is a unlikely to be true um i also wouldn't understand how maduro's plane
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could be flying over venezuela which is what the rumor said that it landed landed somewhere near the brazilian
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border and some people are saying oh that's how he can escape the country um but didn't trump put a
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what would you call it a total cap on airline flight above venezuela you know didn't trump say that we
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would enforce that so how can it be true that the u.s would put a flight ban over venezuela
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but also that the leader's plane could be flying around because the last thing i would want to do
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if i were maduro is get in an airplane when we've just said we'll basically shoot down
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planes that are in the air uh yeah i don't think he's on that plane anyway um have you heard the update
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on the so-called burn bags so did you know that the fbi found these bags that were meant for burning
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documents that were sensitive uh and they just simply had not yet burned them so they put them
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in the burn bag and then i guess when the bag is full they would burn it but there have been some burn
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bags found that were not burned and uh cash patel says that it they involve the trump russia hoax
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you know the russia collusion hoax and that they're found in a secret room and they will be shown to the
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the public and cash patel says quote you're going to see everything we found in that room in one way or
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another uh blah blah blah and uh so i saw this cash patel was uh on an interview uh for the epic times
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and uh jan you killick was talking to him and it kind of felt like cash was suggesting there's something
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in there that's gonna amaze us or shock us or confirm maybe confirm something we suspected
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but i don't know when we're gonna see that but i can't wait to see the burn bags burn bag open them up
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well according to breitbart news uh warner todd houston's writing about this there's a new
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documentary out uh that shows that uh gavin newsom and karen bass did nothing as the la and pacific
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palisades burned now do you believe that well i believe there's a documentary but uh you know how
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i always tell you that the documentary effect must be guarded against the documentary effect is um
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if you if you make a documentary and it's entertaining and people watch it for the let's
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say the hour that it lasts or whatever they will be convinced of whatever it is you're trying to sell
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or whatever narrative you're putting forward they will think it's true so if you were to watch
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this documentary which clearly is designed to show the california politicians failed do you think
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you would come away with it with any other opinion than oh my god they massively failed the you know
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the state no so i would warn you um i haven't seen it but i also plan not to see it because i already
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know it will convince me that the politicians are crooked or incompetent um and they will not be
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showing the other side because you know even if it looks super obvious that the politicians are at fault
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it looks like it to me uh even then there's always another side you know if you sat down with newsom
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and said all right you know why didn't you do x why didn't you do y he might have some explanation
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that even though you're not like a fan of newsom even though you're positive he could have done better
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even though you're sure the state failed you still everybody's got us you know they've got their
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version of events and if you're not going to hear the other side i don't know if you should spend too much
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time hypnotizing yourself on one side so just beware that said i do think the state failed failed uh the
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residents all right well i guess charlie sheen did an interview with megan kelly um belize media is
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writing about it and uh what was interesting is uh that charlie sheen used the word hypnotize
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and he talked about himself and he said that he had been quote hypnotized by state-run media
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and that when he realized by looking at you know different uh news outlets he somehow unhypnotized
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himself um to understand that they're you know two sides to the story basically and that uh he wasn't as
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you know anti-trump or anti-conservative as maybe he thought he was but here's why i thought this was
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interesting um i i went to grok and i asked it has the word hypnotized been used as often as it is now
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and grok said oh my god you know big difference um the word hypnotized would rarely come up
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you know let's say 10 years ago uh i think i said 10 years but that in the past 10 years
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when people talk about politics they do actually use the word hypnotized and uh
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uh uh is said according to grok that hypnotized as a word used in politics went from being obscure
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to being fairly common such that charlie sheen would just you know have that as a go-to
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um i've told you before that one of the things i do is try to track my own influence on events
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and one of the ways i do it is by tracking uncommon word usage and hypnotized is sort of the word i
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introduced about 10 years ago talking about persuasion and whatnot and so i asked grok and
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i've asked i've asked other ais this but i had not asked grok um if i personally was the reason that
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hypnotized hypnotized is a common word where it used to not be common and uh with a few follow-up questions
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grok did say that uh i'm responsible for creating a narrative of trump being persuasive that is the
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common way we see him today and uh they actually credited me for that change a change from looking at
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policy when you're talking about politics to looking at persuasion and it mentioned my book win bigly and
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and it said i had relentlessly hammered on it um and then grok said that what i did
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for the let's say the narrative is that i gave people this is grok's wording i gave people a vocabulary
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to understand trump as a persuader and if you have a vocabulary for something that's a way of saying
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you have a narrative or a framework for understanding things and then as new events happen you can attach
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it to the framework and that would be called a narrative a way of seeing the information as opposed
00:27:12.640
to the information the information the information is attached to the narrative the narrative is the
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way you interpret it right so apparently at least according to grok um i changed the narrative
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from being you know the common narrative of policy and i know character the things we would normally
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talk about with politicians to one where people understand it um as a persuasion framework and
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apparently that's me i seem to have changed the entire way
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i seem to have changed the entire way that people look at
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um politics so you you can have a different opinion and uh believe that i was just a i don't know just
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describing something that was there anyway but what was there anyway is that there was always persuasion
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i didn't invent that but what i invented was the narrative of seeing it through that lens
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and i think i actually did that um and when i see charlie sheen using the word hypnotized
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and i know that that would have been an obscure use of the word 10 years ago which is exactly when
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i started talking about this and talking about persuasion and trump uh i think that's me i think that
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he would not have used the word hypnotized if he had not been let's say opening his eyes in a world that i had partly created
00:28:56.720
i'm kind of curious if you're buying this at all are you buying this i'm looking at your comments now
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how many of you believe that i made a big enough difference that it changed the entire way people look at
00:29:12.000
politics all the way through to affecting charlie sheen's choice of words do you think that's credible
00:29:24.160
i'm looking at your comments most most of you think it's credible and i would bet that the longer you've
00:29:30.160
been watching my podcast the more credible it seems now some of that is the documentary effect so beware
00:29:39.200
beware beware if you're watching my content and you're not seeing anything else that's probably
00:29:45.440
not good enough you probably need to you know you need to see the other argument from stuff i do too
00:29:52.400
so it's not just about you know it includes me let's just say i'm part of the documentary effect so
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beware and be skeptical of everything including me all right we'll give you some persuasion lessons as
00:30:11.280
we go here today um so are you following the story that the washington post has this exclusive story
00:30:19.840
the washington post the one that is usually accused of being a cia tool hmm maybe um i mean they're
00:30:32.000
accused of that it's an allegation but the washington post has a story that allegedly and i believe this
00:30:38.960
is whistleblowers let's see the washington post and whistleblowers if you didn't even know what the story
00:30:47.360
was about would you trust it it's the washington post and it's based on whistleblowers yeah that's
00:30:57.840
that's pretty low credibility right there that's pretty low doesn't mean it's false it could be true
00:31:05.200
but if you were gonna sort of handicap how likely it was and the only thing you knew about it was that
00:31:11.440
there were whistleblowers yeah yeah it's not quite good enough but let me tell you the story if you
00:31:17.920
haven't heard it so the accusation is that at the very first uh venezuelan drug boat that our military
00:31:27.040
blew up that there were a couple of survivors from the attack and that the order went out to kill them
00:31:34.320
all you know quote kill them all and then there was a second strike that finished them off now that i
00:31:42.080
believe that would be a war crime if true now at the same time that you've got the six democrats the
00:31:51.200
seditious six suggesting that the military should not follow what would be illegal orders this would
00:32:00.080
probably be an illegal order if it really happened and if it really happened is you know the big part
00:32:06.560
of the question so do you think it's a coincidence that the washington post hmm allegedly a vehicle used by
00:32:15.120
the cia and deep state for their messaging that they have a story with whistleblowers hmm whistleblowers
00:32:24.080
and it happens to perfectly match the narrative that the democrats are putting out right now which is there
00:32:32.000
might be some illegal orders what would you do if you got the illegal orders so does it make you think
00:32:39.920
about illegal orders yes it does so is that a coincidence is it a or is it a deep state cia persuasion play
00:32:53.680
which would look exactly like it now i don't have any confirmation or special information that would say
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that the washington post story is literally just made up to convince people that there's a big risk
00:33:09.440
of illegal orders i don't have any proof of that what i do have is some pattern recognition
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and when it's the washington post and it's a story that the anti-trump world would like you to see
00:33:26.720
and it fits perfectly with the narrative and it's based on whistleblowers that's a lot of pattern
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recognition going into that that looks like it's just part of a persuasion op from anti-trump forces but
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i i hasten to remind you i don't have any proof of that it just the pattern's a little hard to ignore
00:33:56.080
let's look at the front page of a publication called the hill so keep in mind the context i just gave
00:34:07.520
you the seditious sex then coincidentally fitting perfectly in their narrative there's a story about
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allegedly hagseth gave the order to what would be illegal orders
00:34:23.600
at the same time the hill had a number of stories in the front page and i wanted to see what uh what
00:34:30.560
that looked like um and here are some of the things that uh were on their headlines all right so this is
00:34:38.960
from the hill today one of the stories is titled five ways republicans are breaking up with trump
00:34:48.080
or breaking with trump now i didn't read the article uh this is about looking at the the bigger picture
00:34:55.120
right so five ways republicans are breaking with trump so that would be a story to suggest that trump's
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popularity is falling within his base even though the numbers suggest he's the most popular president
00:35:09.840
within his party of maybe uh all time he has like 87 support within republicans but five ways republicans
00:35:19.360
are breaking another another headline also on the hill same day reagan judges surfaced as unfiltered
00:35:28.480
assessors of trump oh so there are republicans who are even more republican than trump because they're reagan
00:35:39.120
appointed judges and uh and they have unfiltered assessments of trump oh so in other words there are some
00:35:48.080
very credible republican types these judges who are trying to block trump so that would suggest that
00:35:57.520
republicans are not all exactly on the same side so that that headline is at the same way at the same time
00:36:05.440
as the headline five ways republicans are breaking with trump let's see there's another headline
00:36:12.240
trump approval rating drops to new low according to a poll okay that is three headlines just on the hill
00:36:22.000
just today suggesting that trump is losing his popularity now put it all together washington post
00:36:32.480
whistleblowers right seditious six uh don't follow um you know don't follow the orders of you know any
00:36:43.040
illegal orders if you're in the military and then oh look at all the ways republicans are abandoning trump
00:36:51.840
in other words making it easy to abandon trump because you feel that other people are doing it
00:36:59.840
what would be persuasion in this case repetition repetition repetition repetition
00:37:09.360
so the more they say uh trump is becoming less popular uh republicans are breaking with him you better
00:37:17.120
not agree with him if he gives illegal orders they're they're creating a narrative and there's that
00:37:22.960
narrative word again a framework in which you can imagine that trump is becoming less popular once that
00:37:31.360
narrative is established then anything in the news that's anti-trump or shows somebody disagreeing with
00:37:38.320
them or anything that they could you know stretch to make it look like it's a illegal military order
00:37:46.080
now they all fit in that same narrative that he might give an illegal order and his popularity is
00:37:54.400
shrinking within his own base even if that's not necessarily true all right now let's look at politico
00:38:02.880
uh one of the headlines uh one of the headlines is how trump's base could break okay
00:38:12.800
so you you can start to see that if it's true and i don't know that it is but if it's true
00:38:21.360
that our our publications our mainstream media is at least partly just propaganda by deep state
00:38:32.560
intelligence assets if that's true what would it look like wouldn't it look exactly like this
00:38:43.040
and i remind you if you don't know what a color revolution is
00:38:47.600
you need to study up on that because i'm not sure we're in one but i know that if you're doing pattern
00:38:55.360
recognition and you were saying well what what would it look like a color revolution is how the u.s
00:39:02.240
intelligence and our other assets have overthrown some number i don't know what the number is but
00:39:09.520
multiple other countries and the accusation is that the same technique is being used internally by some
00:39:18.800
presumably anti-trump forces to destabilize the trump administration and put back i suppose a democrat
00:39:28.720
that lead thing so so a color revolution would include um suspiciously funded street protests
00:39:42.720
do we have that do we have recently suspiciously funded treat street protests that look sort of sort of
00:39:52.080
dangerous yes yeah um they're not all dangerous looking the the no kings stuff is not especially
00:40:00.240
dangerous but we do have um we're looking at the funding for antifa etc so it does look like there's
00:40:08.400
some kind of sketchy funding for protests that's what you would expect we would do to another country
00:40:16.400
if we're trying to get rid of them there would also be uh if you were if you were suffering from
00:40:25.600
an externally imposed color revolution you there would also be the press would have a pretty unified
00:40:35.280
attack on the leader do we see the press going after the leader trump yes more than we've ever seen
00:40:43.440
the press go after anything so we've got the sketchy street protests we've got the media
00:40:52.080
maybe influenced by intelligent sources we don't know but it looks like it and uh attacking the leader
00:41:05.920
yeah so those would be some of the hallmarks of it so it looks like it but we wouldn't know and then
00:41:12.480
there's the part about following illegal orders and there's a part about trying to jail the current
00:41:21.440
administration because you always need you always need some um excuse to jail the person who's in charge
00:41:31.040
so you can install your own person that's what that's how we would do it if we were overthrowing another
00:41:36.000
country um and that's exactly what was happening to trump the law fair was not trying to beat him
00:41:44.240
electorally it was trying to put him in jail and there was also it looked like to me a huge effort to put
00:41:53.360
his supporters in jail and anybody who supported him anybody who tried to be his lawyer anybody who was a
00:42:00.240
close confident so all the elements are in place for what would be a color revolution that was aimed by our
00:42:08.960
country at our own country um but the the part that uh is missing i think is who's in charge
00:42:19.760
you know who's in charge i think i saw um i've seen speculation that you know that obama is still in
00:42:31.120
charge and he's running the things from behind i haven't seen the proof of that or that john brennan
00:42:36.720
is still in charge haven't seen the proof of that um so i think one thing that's missing from the
00:42:43.280
narrative is a sense of who's in charge like if we are undergoing a color revolution is it just a bunch
00:42:52.560
of people who knew what to do but they didn't need any central coordinating or is it actually essentially
00:42:59.360
coordinated by who the cia all the cia some corner of the cia um some other intelligence assets
00:43:11.600
don't know so i i think i would say we're short of proof that there's a um organized color revolution
00:43:24.880
but all the elements are there the the part missing would be who the hell is doing it
00:43:31.760
you know we we could speculate about that but i don't think there's any smoking gun
00:43:36.320
that i'm aware of now certainly if you looked at the russia collusion hoax and if you said hey whoever
00:43:45.360
was behind that russia collusion hoax unless they're in jail they'd be just doing that same stuff
00:43:54.000
more of it and that would suggest obama and it would suggest brennan and clapper and
00:44:00.320
uh all the uh all the guys that we know were involved guys and gals that we know were involved in that
00:44:08.160
hoax because they're still they're still operating i mean nothing would stop them from doing more of it
00:44:15.280
if they were doing it on another topic um i am quite intrigued by what uh alan dershowitz has said i don't
00:44:26.320
think this is new i think he said this for a while that he knows exactly who's being protected
00:44:33.360
by the non-release of the epstein files and he promises us that it's not trump but that there are
00:44:42.080
some number and i don't know the number of important people who are being protected
00:44:47.280
by the non-release of the epstein files now dershowitz says he's not guessing because he's uh
00:44:55.440
because of court cases he was involved in he actually knows who the people are
00:45:02.640
but what he doesn't tell us is how many of them there are is it three people who are being protected
00:45:11.280
because the way he talks about it it sounds like it's a lot i don't know what a lot would be
00:45:18.720
like any one would be a lot in this particular cons uh context but how many people do you think are
00:45:26.560
being protected and what type of people i i think he also suggested it's um all manner of important
00:45:36.160
people they're all important but they're not necessarily elected leaders they're not necessarily
00:45:43.200
any specific kind of rich person there are just a variety of important people who are being protected
00:45:51.200
does that sound right to you i have to say that sounds completely right to me can't be sure
00:45:59.040
but it does feel like there's more than you know more than one person being protected it's probably
00:46:09.280
probably several countries involved and i'll bet you that the us's relationship with those several
00:46:17.440
countries is kind of dependent on us keeping our damn mouths shut about what their leaders were up to
00:46:25.120
so you can do you can do your own uh your own speculation about what countries are involved but
00:46:32.800
uh i think great britain is at the top of my list don't have any proof but if i had to guess
00:46:42.800
who we would try so hard to protect it feels like great britain doesn't it now i know some of you
00:46:50.400
gonna say israel because that just gets thrown into every conversation but i don't have any specific
00:46:57.360
reason to think that israel's um being protected you know that they may or may not have been involved in
00:47:05.360
some epstein blackmail intel thing that would be separate so separate from whether israel had any
00:47:13.120
epstein involvement is a question of whether any prominent israelis are being protected
00:47:20.720
and that i don't have any i don't have any specific reason to think that would be the case
00:47:28.400
but i love the fact that all of us are wondering who is being protected but dershowitz actually knows
00:47:36.480
can you imagine being him can you can you imagine being one of the few people on earth who don't have to
00:47:43.840
wonder he actually knows he knows the actual names of the people being protected and i i think he's telling
00:47:53.680
the truth so i think he does know the names it's kind of weird anyway um ukraine had some military success
00:48:04.240
i guess i guess you'd call it um with their uh sea drones so that would be water-based drones uh blew up
00:48:14.560
two empty um oil tankers that were apparently part of what they call russia's ghost fleet so if you read
00:48:24.320
the news as i did and you found out that two um tankers now there are oil tankers involved in the
00:48:33.840
avoiding sanctions so russia is under sanctions but there are these all these sketchy usually rusty old
00:48:43.120
tankers that have been getting around the sanctions now if i told you as i just did
00:48:49.360
that ukraine had blown up two of them in one one day in the black sea would you think that that would
00:48:58.080
make a difference what's uh what's missing in the story well what's missing is how many tankers are there
00:49:06.720
if they blew up two and there were only five that's a pretty big story but if you had to guess
00:49:15.440
how many how many ghost tankers do you think russia is using every day not not over time but just every
00:49:26.480
day how many tankers are either carrying an illegal load of russian oil or returning empty to get a load
00:49:37.440
if you had to guess so i'm looking at your numbers uh 18 well if if ukraine took out
00:49:45.440
two of 18 that would be a lot for one day of of work right somebody's saying 200 so i went to grok
00:49:55.680
which by the way i i don't understand any stories in the news anymore unless i've checked with grok
00:50:03.840
now grok could be hallucinating right could be hallucinating so grain of salt but um according to grok
00:50:13.200
over a thousand uh tankers are part of this ghost fleet don't you think that should have been right
00:50:20.960
right at the top of the story now go check the stories
00:50:28.320
is that propaganda because if you said to me oh they they took out two of a thousand
00:50:36.160
i would say oh so they did basically nothing and they were empty so it barely even polluted right
00:50:44.480
um but if you thought the number of total ghost tankers was some lower number maybe in the low hundreds
00:50:54.480
then suddenly two of them being taken out one day start sounding like whoa maybe those ukrainians are doing
00:51:03.360
well so ask yourself this is it bad reporting that they don't give you the context of how many
00:51:11.680
how many tankers there are total is it just bad reporting or is it intentionally trying to create a
00:51:20.880
narrative that ukraine has more of a chance of winning or at least you know pressing the war than they do
00:51:27.840
what do you think is it is that a coincidence do you think it's just a coincidence that the most
00:51:36.160
important number isn't in the story or or maybe they don't know even if they don't know how many uh
00:51:43.680
ghost tankers there are shouldn't they say that as in well two of them went down or at least they were
00:51:50.160
damaged i don't think they went down uh they were damaged and we don't know how many uh there are total
00:51:58.000
that feels like something that story should include right so the fact that it's not in the story
00:52:05.120
tells me that we're seeing a narrative we're not seeing reporting
00:52:11.680
um then i asked grok and remember again grok doesn't have to be right all the time but i'll tell you
00:52:19.760
what grok said because it's interesting i've told you before that one of the ways you can predict the
00:52:26.160
future is by looking at insurance and so i wondered are these boats privately owned not boats ships are
00:52:35.840
are these tankers privately owned and if they're privately owned are they insured and the answer is
00:52:44.320
you know it's there are a variety of situations but some of them uh well let me cut to the important
00:52:51.280
thing i asked grok how much a tanker can earn making one run of you know let's say a full ship of oil
00:53:04.080
and the answer is about three to five million dollars for one run and the cargo would be worth something
00:53:12.480
like 15 to 30 million dollars so they're transporting 15 to 30 million dollars in a in a ship that itself is
00:53:22.640
worth maybe three to five um i'm sorry the ship would be worth something like 15 million plus
00:53:31.360
but they would earn three to five million for just one let's say two month journey there and back
00:53:38.480
so what i'm trying to communicate is that the economics of being a ghost ship owner are so good
00:53:50.240
that you don't need insurance in other words if you just make uh several runs you would earn so much
00:53:59.440
that it would pay for the entire ship going down if it got taken out and since only
00:54:05.920
two of a thousand ships got taken out then the economics are hmm do i take this three million
00:54:14.000
dollars that i'll get in 30 to 60 days at the risk of i don't know maybe one 500 might be the risk of
00:54:24.000
losing the entire ship but you can pay for the entire ship and maybe half a year which would be one of the
00:54:31.600
the best investments you could ever have so the problem is that the economics of avoiding sanctions
00:54:40.800
even at the risk of losing your entire tanker the entire tanker is still overwhelmingly good business
00:54:50.720
and so i think a lot of the ghost tankers are sort of rusty old older tankers that they wouldn't
00:54:58.720
they wouldn't care that much if it went down so it looks to me like um well here's another story along
00:55:10.640
those same lines the wall street journal has an article that says russia is winning the drone war
00:55:18.000
so remember i've told you recently that ukraine's only real advantage maybe just one advantage they have
00:55:26.080
is that they seem to be ahead of russia in building deadly drones and using them effectively well
00:55:34.640
according to the wall street journal that has flipped and now russia has a decided advantage in
00:55:43.200
the drone war one of the things that caught my eye is that uh look this is from the wall street journal
00:55:51.520
today quote large-scale maneuvering remains nearly impossible on a battlefield where masses of cheap
00:55:58.720
drones can see and target movement by soldiers or vehicles so remember i've been telling you for a
00:56:04.240
while that this would turn into a robot only war and it wouldn't even be about people that's basically
00:56:12.400
what the wall street journal is reporting that you wouldn't even bother putting any vehicle into the
00:56:18.880
war zone because it won't last five minutes so if you can't put human occupied you can't do troops
00:56:28.240
or a human driving a truck it's going to be completely depopulated in the the border war zone and it will
00:56:37.680
be literally just drone on drone robot on robot so we're very close to my weird prediction that this would be our
00:56:47.440
first robot on robot war it kind of already is not exactly but it's heading that way all right now i'm going to
00:56:58.720
um let's see i'm gonna confess some stupidity if you don't mind somebody said the other day that's one of the
00:57:09.280
reasons they like listening to me is that i'm not uh i'm not overly wed to even my own opinions if if the
00:57:17.920
evidence shows that i've got it wrong then i don't have any hesitation to changing my opinion i'm going
00:57:24.880
to do that right now so i think i said the last few days that for the first time i could kind of imagine
00:57:32.400
there could be a ukraine russia peace deal and until recently i couldn't even imagine it and i'll tell
00:57:41.040
i'll reiterate what i said before i tell you how wrong it was okay so my thinking was that some things have
00:57:48.640
changed recently uh there's pressure on ukraine in the in the uh uh corruption um stuff and maybe that
00:57:58.240
put some pressure on zelensky that his best friend is already being chased out of office
00:58:05.360
um under accusations of corruption um and uh i said well i had a few other arguments but my argument was
00:58:16.640
that we might be closer to some some kind of negotiated settlement than people realize i'm completely going to
00:58:24.880
change that today because i spent some time trying to figure out also using grok for context i wanted to
00:58:33.440
see um how close russia was to economic defeat so it's a war there's sort of a two-part war one part of the war
00:58:46.160
is um killing humans and trying to be the last living humans so that's you know that's one way to
00:58:54.880
look at the war the other way is that they're both attacking each other's economies and that the real war
00:59:01.200
is economic so whoever can cripple the other one economically will will be the winner and i was trying to
00:59:10.640
figure out what would be a scenario in which putin would be willing to make peace right now and here's
00:59:19.600
where i i think i was very wrong yet the other day there is no scenario in which it makes sense for him
00:59:26.480
to stop the war you know if he's only losing two tankers that by the way were not even owned by russia
00:59:34.560
the the tankers that get blown up are owned by wealthy individuals and different countries and russia
00:59:43.040
doesn't even lose anything except two out of a thousand tankers so there there is a according to grok
00:59:54.160
there there is definitely impact on russian citizens so they've got eight or nine percent inflation
01:00:01.360
uh their gdp is kind of flat and uh people are feeling the pitch but it's not the end of the world
01:00:11.680
you know russia is not in a any kind of a depression uh it looks like they can kind of keep going on
01:00:19.680
and one of the things that putin has going for him is he doesn't seem to have to satisfy his public that
01:00:25.920
much because he's going to stay in power and he can control his own media um and so if it doesn't get
01:00:34.720
too much worse he's better off just winning and if you factor in ego you know the after factor in ego
01:00:46.080
i don't see him quitting now because if he quit now even if he you know even if he banked the gains
01:00:53.600
and said okay we have the donbass and we've got crimea and we got a few things we wanted um
01:01:01.600
if he did it would still look like a lot of war for not a lot of gain i think he has to probably
01:01:09.920
gain more before his legacy is looks good and he can argue that it made sense to have the war in the
01:01:17.360
first place because even though he doesn't need to make his population love him you know the way american
01:01:23.440
politicians might he still needs some kind of popular support so i would say that ukraine does
01:01:31.760
not look like it could take out russia's energy infrastructure before russia could take out
01:01:39.520
ukraine's infrastructure um and i don't see anything changing that would make putin want to make peace
01:01:48.240
because all indications are he's slowly gaining and slowly winding down ukraine and ukraine is losing
01:01:57.920
losing support you know it's not going to be won't be supported financially forever so the part that i
01:02:05.760
think i calculated wrong is that i just assumed without thinking about it well enough i guess i just assumed
01:02:14.560
that everybody wants to end war but why would putin apparently he's not too worried about the number
01:02:24.160
of russians being killed in the war so if he doesn't mind that and it's sort of moving in his direction
01:02:35.280
and the only thing that i can imagine changing it is something that changed things economically
01:02:44.400
that somehow russia would allow to happen to them without responding in kind don't you think that the
01:02:53.440
united states is holding back quite a bit because if we go too far um with allowing ukraine to have all
01:03:01.200
the best weapons and stuff if we go too far some of that's gonna come back on the homeland you know
01:03:08.240
russia is gonna not want to put up with that without responding in kind so i don't see any way that as
01:03:16.240
long as putin's in charge and it looks like he'll remain in charge um so i'm gonna i'm gonna re-up my older
01:03:24.000
my older uh prediction that there's no way we get a piece within a year because there's just a not
01:03:33.040
enough happening that would change the balance of where we are right now two out of a thousand ghost
01:03:39.760
anchors i don't know that doesn't seem like enough all right
01:03:46.320
so what else we got going well that ladies and gentlemen is my full show and i appear to be back
01:03:58.480
to full power i'm a little bit quiet today but feel my full energy i was telling people before uh
01:04:06.640
before everybody's dreamed in here that i'm gonna do a separate video maybe today of dad gift ideas for
01:04:14.800
christmas i've got some really good dad gift ideas and it's based entirely on things that i have and
01:04:22.720
you know i'm especially happy about them uh scott is wrong zelensky is going to get arrested well
01:04:30.000
that's that's not part of my prediction i don't have a prediction about zelensky not getting arrested
01:04:37.920
but i also don't have one about him getting arrested i i don't think it matters
01:04:42.960
what ukraine wants or what zelensky wants i don't think they're i think it's between the united states
01:04:50.320
and russia and um i don't think it matters at all what zelensky wants so that's just not part of my
01:05:01.360
prediction at all either way whether he gets arrested or not shouldn't affect have any effect on whether
01:05:14.640
well you know i wasn't going to mention the coffee warmer but maybe i'll add that to the list
01:05:22.640
uh tankers are mostly owned by greek companies i don't think that's true that the ghost tankers are
01:05:31.840
mostly owned by greek uh i do believe that there are a lot of greek registered tankers but i don't
01:05:40.000
think mostly i think it's a grab bag of basically all kinds of sketchy tanker people from around the
01:05:51.440
well that is so wrong i can tell the people i want to ignore the most the the people who listen to
01:06:01.520
my entire uh ukraine prediction and then all they have to do is they say scott you should read up more
01:06:10.640
or you're so wrong that's not an opinion you're so wrong tell me one thing i got wrong anything pick
01:06:21.760
pick the top thing you think i'm misinterpreting or missing or not calculating just tell me one thing
01:06:29.680
that you think i don't know or i have not included in my opinion and you'll get really quiet right now
01:06:36.640
all right ladies and gentlemen i'm gonna say goodbye for most of you and i'm gonna uh talk to my beloved
01:06:50.480
local subscribers the best subscribers ever and uh i'll see the rest of you
01:06:57.920
soon but let's see if i can get my technology to do what i want so local supporters beloveds