Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3032 CWSA 11⧸30⧸25

00:00:00.000 morning everybody come on in i know you're just on time we're gonna hang out a little bit this

00:00:07.040 morning because well you missed you missed each other and i missed you too come on and grab a seat

00:00:16.480 so later maybe later today i'm going to do a separate video with some dad gift ideas

00:00:31.120 wouldn't that be great some dad gift ideas now obviously you know you need to get the

00:00:38.880 dilbert uh calendar for any dad who's ever worked in an office

00:00:44.640 i guarantee this is going to work for any dad who ever worked in an office

00:00:50.800 only available on amazon get them before they sell out but i've got some other great ideas

00:00:58.800 that are not all my products you'll love them you guys ready for this are you ready

00:01:05.840 good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called

00:01:15.360 coffee with scott adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take a chance

00:01:21.600 on elevating your experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny

00:01:27.840 human brains all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass of tanker chalice a stein a canteen

00:01:34.960 jug or a flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now

00:01:43.360 for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better

00:01:47.920 it's called the simultaneous sip famous around the world happens now

00:01:56.800 uh-huh that was as good as i imagined it would be wow

00:02:03.040 well do you believe believe it or not by the way i'll be doing a little bit more npr talk today

00:02:09.040 as i recover my full ability and energy which is moving in the right direction but there's a story

00:02:19.600 according to the cool down which must be a publication of some sort that scientists have achieved a

00:02:28.400 breakthrough that could make batteries obsolete apparently has something to do with

00:02:34.640 um the barrier between salt water and regular water and somehow they can use the difference the you

00:02:43.440 know chemical or electrical difference difference between salt water and regular water so as long as

00:02:51.440 you have the two of them you can create electricity and apparently lots of it do you believe that

00:02:57.120 that it sounds exactly like a april fool's prank that you can make infinite energy and a water just

00:03:06.720 something that has to be salt water i'm going to say feels a little optimistic but i remind you

00:03:16.000 that there seems to be a battery related energy breakthrough almost every day so sooner or later

00:03:23.840 one of them will work well in chicago according to futurism um i guess there are two startups that

00:03:33.600 have these little robots that are on the sidewalks delivering things and you know that's not new you

00:03:42.160 you know there have been startups that tried to have little robots on the sidewalks and

00:03:48.000 i guess none of them have really worked but they keep trying but here's the funny part of the story

00:03:53.760 the only the only reason i'm telling you this story is that people who don't like the robots

00:04:00.560 are putting their dog poop bag on top of the robot

00:04:07.120 so if you're out walking your dog and you you don't want to carry the poop bag around

00:04:12.640 and the robot goes by you just put it on top of the robot and the robot takes your poop away now i do not 0.80

00:04:20.000 recommend this it's kind of a messed up thing to do especially especially if it's delivering food

00:04:28.880 you wouldn't want your food to be delivered with a poop bag on top but while i don't recommend it

00:04:36.080 and i discourage it it doesn't make it less funny

00:04:39.920 that's the important part all right um i think i haven't seen this before but it's worth mentioning

00:04:49.920 i guess elon musk i think he was on joe rogan maybe some other podcast and he said that grok is the only ai

00:04:59.360 that weighs all human lives equally i guess some of the other ais uh value uh adult white males

00:05:09.440 lower than the rest of society and that's the technology that we're we're letting loose on the

00:05:15.760 world yeah maybe maybe we ought to have a look at that so apparently grok's the only one

00:05:24.560 one and uh that's based on an actual study um but uh that's pretty alarming is it it's alarming to even

00:05:36.320 to even imagine that that's an issue right oh what is this behind my shoulder looks like product

00:05:44.640 placement the dillbert calendar is sitting right back there twice as good as ever before

00:05:50.560 well in chicago now this is a funny story too according to the post millennial they're covering

00:05:58.320 this uh chicago i guess they tested ubi universal basic income where they literally just give money

00:06:08.400 to people who don't have money and they try to you know see if that'll make their life better and make

00:06:14.480 the world better well they they just ended up testing 500 a month in cash and guess what they concluded

00:06:24.720 well they concluded that people really like getting 500 in cash for doing no work

00:06:31.440 so they called it a success and said they're going to do more of it that's right the the standard for

00:06:40.320 judging whether it was successful was whether the people who got the free money were happy about it

00:06:48.480 i'm not making that up turns out that people are happy when you give them free money

00:06:53.520 who do maybe you could have asked me all right um apparently the state department

00:07:03.040 is doing far fewer press briefings than than before to which i ask why would you do any what what would

00:07:14.000 the state department tell you that trump wouldn't tell you it seems like if you have more than one

00:07:20.880 you know government entity that's doing important press briefings in addition to trump that all it does is

00:07:28.160 create a opportunity for something to look like a misinterpretation or or a conflict so why would you

00:07:36.080 ever have a press briefing from the state department as long as trump can cover all that same material which

00:07:42.640 he does you know anything that matters so yeah that's smart smart not to have them

00:07:50.800 um well apparently the defense department or the is it called the department of war now i don't know

00:08:01.280 um they've confirmed that 11 billion dollars which is only a small fraction of the real number has been

00:08:09.600 stolen 11 billion dollars since 2017 uh and according to the gao it's only a small fraction

00:08:21.360 of how much has been stolen of your tax money just just the stuff that was going to the department of defense

00:08:29.920 um so the the pentagon which spends about a trillion dollars a year has never passed an audit

00:08:40.560 do you think we're better than um ukraine

00:08:43.760 you know i've said this before but when you look at the number of expensive homes and expensive cars

00:08:54.640 it doesn't really map to my understanding of how many legitimate jobs there are in the world

00:09:01.280 that you can make that much money it looks like i mean i've been feeling this for a long time

00:09:08.560 that we're primarily a corruption economy not primarily but that maybe something like

00:09:18.240 20 percent of the entire gdp is criminal i don't know how big it is but every time we we look at any

00:09:26.240 entity that has a budget doesn't it always look the same like every time there's a big budget be it

00:09:35.680 minneapolis be it the department of defense be it the ngos be it the usa id every time there's a big budget

00:09:48.000 that it's being stolen that new york city's budget the city budgets every time if we could solve one

00:09:56.960 problem which is the ability to audit where our money goes

00:10:01.280 everything would be different so it feels it feels like it feels like what the trump administration

00:10:10.240 needs to do i don't even know if it's doable is to find some way to insist that nobody ever gets a

00:10:19.520 budget for anything unless there's a really dynamic auditing feature where everybody can see where every

00:10:28.560 dollar goes short of that it's just all being stolen it doesn't matter if it's money for ukraine or money for

00:10:37.280 poor people or money for a disease or money for covet every single time every time it's being stolen

00:10:47.520 as a you know as a developed country we can't figure out how to audit our stuff

00:10:53.680 i mean it's crazy it's crazy anyway here are some examples a pentagon contractor

00:11:04.480 i guess one of the ways or maybe the main way that this kind of money is stolen is there's kickbacks

00:11:11.680 for for sending money in one direction versus another there are all these shell companies that

00:11:18.880 are like fake companies pretending to do things that you would get money for but not really doing

00:11:24.480 those things canada can be a global leader in reducing the harm caused by smoking but it requires

00:11:33.600 actionable steps now is the time to modernize canadian laws so that adult smokers have information and

00:11:40.240 access to better alternatives by doing so we can create lasting change if you don't smoke don't start

00:11:47.760 if you smoke quit if you don't quit change visit unsmoke.ca well in other news um gateway pundit is

00:11:59.680 reporting that uh the u.s treasury so that would be scott the best end is uh is going to start seizing

00:12:09.040 remittances so remittances in this context is talking about uh people who are usually

00:12:18.000 usually non-citizens they don't have to be non-citizens but they're sending money back to their home

00:12:23.920 country or wherever they came from now on one hand i like freedom and i think people should be able to

00:12:32.560 do whatever they want with their money you know assuming it's legally obtained on the other hand

00:12:39.120 there's a really good reason or argument for limiting the ability for people to make money in the

00:12:46.160 u.s and then send that money somewhere else that doesn't help us it helps wherever you're sending

00:12:53.920 it but it doesn't help us so if you were to tax those remittances um you know at least you get

00:13:01.440 something out of it or if you were to block them or cap them it probably would be a good idea for the

00:13:08.240 united states so i don't i don't know how big that number is but it's a lot of money and if we could

00:13:16.080 just um if those dollars would simply stay circulating within the u.s economy you know you have a you have

00:13:24.880 a multiplier effect so the dollar spent goes to another american who now has a dollar who spends it

00:13:31.680 that goes to another american well if you take that and you you create a leak where that dollar

00:13:38.400 just leaves our system then it never has any multiplier effect so you don't lose a dollar you

00:13:46.080 lose like i don't know the multiplier would probably be 10 maybe 10 to 1 i don't know what the real number

00:13:54.240 is but it's a lot so just letting a dollar leave our system to go back to the home country that one

00:14:01.680 dollar is like ten dollars in terms of gdp over time so yeah velocity exactly somebody took an economics

00:14:11.680 course yeah velocity is what we're talking about and let's see so i guess we're going to flag

00:14:18.880 uh anything that's over two thousand dollars that probably will go down over time that's a lot of

00:14:25.280 money actually sending back to the home country well now trump has uh put a pause on the u.s immigration

00:14:35.680 uh permanent pause well i don't know how permanent it is uh from third world countries

00:14:42.400 now do you remember when trump tried the uh the so-called muslim ban and that didn't work out so he

00:14:52.000 modified it and then it worked out um why did he never try third world ban it does seem like that would

00:15:02.400 capture everything you didn't want you know that the third world would capture kind of all kinds of 1.00

00:15:11.120 situations and if he needed i suppose if he needed to make an exception it wouldn't be that hard but it

00:15:18.080 seems kind of clean to just say we don't let people from third world countries in unless it's a special 1.00

00:15:28.720 situation because i don't know how much is helping us now the other factors that

00:15:36.560 are impossible to predict are the effect of decreasing population you know our reproduction rate is below

00:15:46.960 replacement so it's not like we're going to be able to get away with not importing people unless

00:15:56.160 the robot revolution is so fast that we just never need to import another person and then we would

00:16:04.640 slowly turn into a robot country uh oh i just realized that's probably what's going to happen

00:16:12.080 okay uh work with me here so let's say that uh we limit migration immigration into the country and let's say

00:16:24.720 that our um our repopulation rate stays below replacement there would be fewer humans every day

00:16:35.520 but because we're at the beginning of the robot revolution there would be more robots every day

00:16:42.480 now in the beginning we're going to say humans are humans and robots are robots and they're just tools

00:16:49.120 but as those robots become more and more human-like which is guaranteed and it's going to happen fast

00:16:56.080 will we so easily call the robots tools and the humans the important thing when the number of robots

00:17:06.800 starts surpassing the number of humans what happens when the united states becomes 90 percent humanoid robots

00:17:18.800 doing all the things that humans do and 10 percent humans are we destined to become a robot only country

00:17:31.440 you know that could happen right in in the real world there's a possibility that sometime maybe even in

00:17:40.960 your lifetime uh well not in your lifetime probably but there's a real possibility that the united states

00:17:47.520 will be only populated by humanoid robots that can also reproduce what would stop that from happening

00:17:57.840 right all the trends are in that direction our population will reduce our immigration will go to zero

00:18:04.080 and the number of robots that are you know indistinguishable from humans basically will start at zero

00:18:13.200 but it's going to go to millions you know within just a few short years

00:18:17.920 so robot nation coming up there is a rumor this morning that i do not believe is true there's no

00:18:27.600 confirmation for it but i'll just tell you the rumor the rumors that uh venezuelan leader maduro

00:18:35.360 may have tried to escape venezuela in an airplane that apparently is known to be his airplane

00:18:42.960 but there is no confirmation of anything of the sort so the news is not treating it like that's a real

00:18:49.680 story yet so i would say that is a unlikely to be true um i also wouldn't understand how maduro's plane

00:19:00.400 could be flying over venezuela which is what the rumor said that it landed landed somewhere near the brazilian

00:19:08.400 border and some people are saying oh that's how he can escape the country um but didn't trump put a

00:19:18.400 what would you call it a total cap on airline flight above venezuela you know didn't trump say that we

00:19:26.800 would enforce that so how can it be true that the u.s would put a flight ban over venezuela

00:19:35.680 but also that the leader's plane could be flying around because the last thing i would want to do

00:19:43.040 if i were maduro is get in an airplane when we've just said we'll basically shoot down

00:19:48.960 planes that are in the air uh yeah i don't think he's on that plane anyway um have you heard the update

00:19:58.240 on the so-called burn bags so did you know that the fbi found these bags that were meant for burning

00:20:09.040 documents that were sensitive uh and they just simply had not yet burned them so they put them

00:20:15.360 in the burn bag and then i guess when the bag is full they would burn it but there have been some burn

00:20:21.280 bags found that were not burned and uh cash patel says that it they involve the trump russia hoax

00:20:31.680 you know the russia collusion hoax and that they're found in a secret room and they will be shown to the

00:20:38.400 the public and cash patel says quote you're going to see everything we found in that room in one way or

00:20:46.400 another uh blah blah blah and uh so i saw this cash patel was uh on an interview uh for the epic times

00:20:56.080 and uh jan you killick was talking to him and it kind of felt like cash was suggesting there's something

00:21:05.200 in there that's gonna amaze us or shock us or confirm maybe confirm something we suspected

00:21:13.520 but i don't know when we're gonna see that but i can't wait to see the burn bags burn bag open them up

00:21:22.080 well according to breitbart news uh warner todd houston's writing about this there's a new

00:21:29.440 documentary out uh that shows that uh gavin newsom and karen bass did nothing as the la and pacific

00:21:38.800 palisades burned now do you believe that well i believe there's a documentary but uh you know how

00:21:47.440 i always tell you that the documentary effect must be guarded against the documentary effect is um

00:21:56.000 if you if you make a documentary and it's entertaining and people watch it for the let's

00:22:03.920 say the hour that it lasts or whatever they will be convinced of whatever it is you're trying to sell

00:22:10.400 or whatever narrative you're putting forward they will think it's true so if you were to watch

00:22:16.560 this documentary which clearly is designed to show the california politicians failed do you think

00:22:25.040 you would come away with it with any other opinion than oh my god they massively failed the you know

00:22:32.320 the state no so i would warn you um i haven't seen it but i also plan not to see it because i already

00:22:42.240 know it will convince me that the politicians are crooked or incompetent um and they will not be

00:22:49.280 showing the other side because you know even if it looks super obvious that the politicians are at fault

00:22:58.240 it looks like it to me uh even then there's always another side you know if you sat down with newsom

00:23:06.640 and said all right you know why didn't you do x why didn't you do y he might have some explanation

00:23:12.880 that even though you're not like a fan of newsom even though you're positive he could have done better

00:23:18.880 even though you're sure the state failed you still everybody's got us you know they've got their

00:23:26.560 version of events and if you're not going to hear the other side i don't know if you should spend too much

00:23:33.120 time hypnotizing yourself on one side so just beware that said i do think the state failed failed uh the

00:23:44.240 residents all right well i guess charlie sheen did an interview with megan kelly um belize media is

00:23:52.560 writing about it and uh what was interesting is uh that charlie sheen used the word hypnotize

00:24:00.240 and he talked about himself and he said that he had been quote hypnotized by state-run media

00:24:08.240 and that when he realized by looking at you know different uh news outlets he somehow unhypnotized

00:24:15.600 himself um to understand that they're you know two sides to the story basically and that uh he wasn't as

00:24:24.640 you know anti-trump or anti-conservative as maybe he thought he was but here's why i thought this was

00:24:33.840 interesting um i i went to grok and i asked it has the word hypnotized been used as often as it is now

00:24:47.280 and grok said oh my god you know big difference um the word hypnotized would rarely come up

00:24:55.520 you know let's say 10 years ago uh i think i said 10 years but that in the past 10 years

00:25:03.200 when people talk about politics they do actually use the word hypnotized and uh

00:25:08.880 uh uh is said according to grok that hypnotized as a word used in politics went from being obscure

00:25:18.880 to being fairly common such that charlie sheen would just you know have that as a go-to

00:25:26.640 um i've told you before that one of the things i do is try to track my own influence on events

00:25:33.520 and one of the ways i do it is by tracking uncommon word usage and hypnotized is sort of the word i

00:25:42.960 introduced about 10 years ago talking about persuasion and whatnot and so i asked grok and

00:25:50.080 i've asked i've asked other ais this but i had not asked grok um if i personally was the reason that

00:25:57.920 hypnotized hypnotized is a common word where it used to not be common and uh with a few follow-up questions

00:26:06.720 grok did say that uh i'm responsible for creating a narrative of trump being persuasive that is the

00:26:18.160 common way we see him today and uh they actually credited me for that change a change from looking at

00:26:26.960 policy when you're talking about politics to looking at persuasion and it mentioned my book win bigly and

00:26:33.840 and it said i had relentlessly hammered on it um and then grok said that what i did

00:26:43.280 for the let's say the narrative is that i gave people this is grok's wording i gave people a vocabulary

00:26:50.880 to understand trump as a persuader and if you have a vocabulary for something that's a way of saying

00:26:58.320 you have a narrative or a framework for understanding things and then as new events happen you can attach

00:27:05.760 it to the framework and that would be called a narrative a way of seeing the information as opposed

00:27:12.640 to the information the information the information is attached to the narrative the narrative is the

00:27:18.000 way you interpret it right so apparently at least according to grok um i changed the narrative

00:27:27.920 from being you know the common narrative of policy and i know character the things we would normally

00:27:34.720 talk about with politicians to one where people understand it um as a persuasion framework and

00:27:45.920 apparently that's me i seem to have changed the entire way

00:27:54.160 i seem to have changed the entire way that people look at

00:27:56.880 um politics so you you can have a different opinion and uh believe that i was just a i don't know just

00:28:06.240 describing something that was there anyway but what was there anyway is that there was always persuasion

00:28:13.760 i didn't invent that but what i invented was the narrative of seeing it through that lens

00:28:20.240 and i think i actually did that um and when i see charlie sheen using the word hypnotized

00:28:30.080 and i know that that would have been an obscure use of the word 10 years ago which is exactly when

00:28:35.600 i started talking about this and talking about persuasion and trump uh i think that's me i think that

00:28:43.760 he would not have used the word hypnotized if he had not been let's say opening his eyes in a world that i had partly created

00:28:56.720 i'm kind of curious if you're buying this at all are you buying this i'm looking at your comments now

00:29:04.240 how many of you believe that i made a big enough difference that it changed the entire way people look at

00:29:12.000 politics all the way through to affecting charlie sheen's choice of words do you think that's credible

00:29:24.160 i'm looking at your comments most most of you think it's credible and i would bet that the longer you've

00:29:30.160 been watching my podcast the more credible it seems now some of that is the documentary effect so beware

00:29:39.200 beware beware if you're watching my content and you're not seeing anything else that's probably

00:29:45.440 not good enough you probably need to you know you need to see the other argument from stuff i do too

00:29:52.400 so it's not just about you know it includes me let's just say i'm part of the documentary effect so

00:30:00.800 beware and be skeptical of everything including me all right we'll give you some persuasion lessons as

00:30:11.280 we go here today um so are you following the story that the washington post has this exclusive story

00:30:19.840 the washington post the one that is usually accused of being a cia tool hmm maybe um i mean they're

00:30:32.000 accused of that it's an allegation but the washington post has a story that allegedly and i believe this

00:30:38.960 is whistleblowers let's see the washington post and whistleblowers if you didn't even know what the story

00:30:47.360 was about would you trust it it's the washington post and it's based on whistleblowers yeah that's

00:30:57.840 that's pretty low credibility right there that's pretty low doesn't mean it's false it could be true

00:31:05.200 but if you were gonna sort of handicap how likely it was and the only thing you knew about it was that

00:31:11.440 there were whistleblowers yeah yeah it's not quite good enough but let me tell you the story if you

00:31:17.920 haven't heard it so the accusation is that at the very first uh venezuelan drug boat that our military

00:31:27.040 blew up that there were a couple of survivors from the attack and that the order went out to kill them

00:31:34.320 all you know quote kill them all and then there was a second strike that finished them off now that i

00:31:42.080 believe that would be a war crime if true now at the same time that you've got the six democrats the 0.96

00:31:51.200 seditious six suggesting that the military should not follow what would be illegal orders this would

00:32:00.080 probably be an illegal order if it really happened and if it really happened is you know the big part

00:32:06.560 of the question so do you think it's a coincidence that the washington post hmm allegedly a vehicle used by

00:32:15.120 the cia and deep state for their messaging that they have a story with whistleblowers hmm whistleblowers

00:32:24.080 and it happens to perfectly match the narrative that the democrats are putting out right now which is there

00:32:32.000 might be some illegal orders what would you do if you got the illegal orders so does it make you think

00:32:39.920 about illegal orders yes it does so is that a coincidence is it a or is it a deep state cia persuasion play

00:32:53.680 which would look exactly like it now i don't have any confirmation or special information that would say

00:33:02.800 that the washington post story is literally just made up to convince people that there's a big risk

00:33:09.440 of illegal orders i don't have any proof of that what i do have is some pattern recognition

00:33:17.360 and when it's the washington post and it's a story that the anti-trump world would like you to see

00:33:26.720 and it fits perfectly with the narrative and it's based on whistleblowers that's a lot of pattern

00:33:34.880 recognition going into that that looks like it's just part of a persuasion op from anti-trump forces but

00:33:43.840 i i hasten to remind you i don't have any proof of that it just the pattern's a little hard to ignore

00:33:54.320 so keep an eye on that now

00:33:56.080 let's look at the front page of a publication called the hill so keep in mind the context i just gave

00:34:07.520 you the seditious sex then coincidentally fitting perfectly in their narrative there's a story about

00:34:15.600 allegedly hagseth gave the order to what would be illegal orders

00:34:23.600 at the same time the hill had a number of stories in the front page and i wanted to see what uh what

00:34:30.560 that looked like um and here are some of the things that uh were on their headlines all right so this is

00:34:38.960 from the hill today one of the stories is titled five ways republicans are breaking up with trump

00:34:48.080 or breaking with trump now i didn't read the article uh this is about looking at the the bigger picture

00:34:55.120 right so five ways republicans are breaking with trump so that would be a story to suggest that trump's

00:35:02.640 popularity is falling within his base even though the numbers suggest he's the most popular president

00:35:09.840 within his party of maybe uh all time he has like 87 support within republicans but five ways republicans

00:35:19.360 are breaking another another headline also on the hill same day reagan judges surfaced as unfiltered

00:35:28.480 assessors of trump oh so there are republicans who are even more republican than trump because they're reagan 0.97

00:35:39.120 appointed judges and uh and they have unfiltered assessments of trump oh so in other words there are some

00:35:48.080 very credible republican types these judges who are trying to block trump so that would suggest that

00:35:57.520 republicans are not all exactly on the same side so that that headline is at the same way at the same time

00:36:05.440 as the headline five ways republicans are breaking with trump let's see there's another headline

00:36:12.240 trump approval rating drops to new low according to a poll okay that is three headlines just on the hill

00:36:22.000 just today suggesting that trump is losing his popularity now put it all together washington post

00:36:32.480 whistleblowers right seditious six uh don't follow um you know don't follow the orders of you know any

00:36:43.040 illegal orders if you're in the military and then oh look at all the ways republicans are abandoning trump

00:36:51.840 in other words making it easy to abandon trump because you feel that other people are doing it

00:36:59.840 what would be persuasion in this case repetition repetition repetition repetition

00:37:09.360 so the more they say uh trump is becoming less popular uh republicans are breaking with him you better

00:37:17.120 not agree with him if he gives illegal orders they're they're creating a narrative and there's that

00:37:22.960 narrative word again a framework in which you can imagine that trump is becoming less popular once that

00:37:31.360 narrative is established then anything in the news that's anti-trump or shows somebody disagreeing with

00:37:38.320 them or anything that they could you know stretch to make it look like it's a illegal military order

00:37:46.080 now they all fit in that same narrative that he might give an illegal order and his popularity is

00:37:54.400 shrinking within his own base even if that's not necessarily true all right now let's look at politico

00:38:02.880 uh one of the headlines uh one of the headlines is how trump's base could break okay

00:38:12.800 so you you can start to see that if it's true and i don't know that it is but if it's true

00:38:21.360 that our our publications our mainstream media is at least partly just propaganda by deep state

00:38:32.560 intelligence assets if that's true what would it look like wouldn't it look exactly like this

00:38:43.040 and i remind you if you don't know what a color revolution is

00:38:47.600 you need to study up on that because i'm not sure we're in one but i know that if you're doing pattern

00:38:55.360 recognition and you were saying well what what would it look like a color revolution is how the u.s

00:39:02.240 intelligence and our other assets have overthrown some number i don't know what the number is but

00:39:09.520 multiple other countries and the accusation is that the same technique is being used internally by some

00:39:18.800 presumably anti-trump forces to destabilize the trump administration and put back i suppose a democrat

00:39:28.720 that lead thing so so a color revolution would include um suspiciously funded street protests

00:39:42.720 do we have that do we have recently suspiciously funded treat street protests that look sort of sort of

00:39:52.080 dangerous yes yeah um they're not all dangerous looking the the no kings stuff is not especially

00:40:00.240 dangerous but we do have um we're looking at the funding for antifa etc so it does look like there's

00:40:08.400 some kind of sketchy funding for protests that's what you would expect we would do to another country

00:40:16.400 if we're trying to get rid of them there would also be uh if you were if you were suffering from

00:40:25.600 an externally imposed color revolution you there would also be the press would have a pretty unified

00:40:35.280 attack on the leader do we see the press going after the leader trump yes more than we've ever seen

00:40:43.440 the press go after anything so we've got the sketchy street protests we've got the media

00:40:52.080 maybe influenced by intelligent sources we don't know but it looks like it and uh attacking the leader

00:41:02.400 and uh

00:41:05.920 yeah so those would be some of the hallmarks of it so it looks like it but we wouldn't know and then

00:41:12.480 there's the part about following illegal orders and there's a part about trying to jail the current

00:41:21.440 administration because you always need you always need some um excuse to jail the person who's in charge

00:41:31.040 so you can install your own person that's what that's how we would do it if we were overthrowing another

00:41:36.000 country um and that's exactly what was happening to trump the law fair was not trying to beat him

00:41:44.240 electorally it was trying to put him in jail and there was also it looked like to me a huge effort to put

00:41:53.360 his supporters in jail and anybody who supported him anybody who tried to be his lawyer anybody who was a

00:42:00.240 close confident so all the elements are in place for what would be a color revolution that was aimed by our

00:42:08.960 country at our own country um but the the part that uh is missing i think is who's in charge

00:42:19.760 you know who's in charge i think i saw um i've seen speculation that you know that obama is still in

00:42:31.120 charge and he's running the things from behind i haven't seen the proof of that or that john brennan

00:42:36.720 is still in charge haven't seen the proof of that um so i think one thing that's missing from the

00:42:43.280 narrative is a sense of who's in charge like if we are undergoing a color revolution is it just a bunch

00:42:52.560 of people who knew what to do but they didn't need any central coordinating or is it actually essentially

00:42:59.360 coordinated by who the cia all the cia some corner of the cia um some other intelligence assets

00:43:11.600 don't know so i i think i would say we're short of proof that there's a um organized color revolution

00:43:24.880 but all the elements are there the the part missing would be who the hell is doing it

00:43:31.760 you know we we could speculate about that but i don't think there's any smoking gun

00:43:36.320 that i'm aware of now certainly if you looked at the russia collusion hoax and if you said hey whoever

00:43:45.360 was behind that russia collusion hoax unless they're in jail they'd be just doing that same stuff

00:43:54.000 more of it and that would suggest obama and it would suggest brennan and clapper and

00:44:00.320 uh all the uh all the guys that we know were involved guys and gals that we know were involved in that

00:44:08.160 hoax because they're still they're still operating i mean nothing would stop them from doing more of it

00:44:15.280 if they were doing it on another topic um i am quite intrigued by what uh alan dershowitz has said i don't

00:44:26.320 think this is new i think he said this for a while that he knows exactly who's being protected

00:44:33.360 by the non-release of the epstein files and he promises us that it's not trump but that there are

00:44:42.080 some number and i don't know the number of important people who are being protected

00:44:47.280 by the non-release of the epstein files now dershowitz says he's not guessing because he's uh

00:44:55.440 because of court cases he was involved in he actually knows who the people are

00:45:02.640 but what he doesn't tell us is how many of them there are is it three people who are being protected

00:45:11.280 because the way he talks about it it sounds like it's a lot i don't know what a lot would be

00:45:18.720 like any one would be a lot in this particular cons uh context but how many people do you think are

00:45:26.560 being protected and what type of people i i think he also suggested it's um all manner of important

00:45:36.160 people they're all important but they're not necessarily elected leaders they're not necessarily

00:45:43.200 any specific kind of rich person there are just a variety of important people who are being protected

00:45:51.200 does that sound right to you i have to say that sounds completely right to me can't be sure

00:45:59.040 but it does feel like there's more than you know more than one person being protected it's probably

00:46:09.280 probably several countries involved and i'll bet you that the us's relationship with those several 0.98

00:46:17.440 countries is kind of dependent on us keeping our damn mouths shut about what their leaders were up to 0.55

00:46:25.120 so you can do you can do your own uh your own speculation about what countries are involved but 0.96

00:46:32.800 uh i think great britain is at the top of my list don't have any proof but if i had to guess

00:46:42.800 who we would try so hard to protect it feels like great britain doesn't it now i know some of you

00:46:50.400 gonna say israel because that just gets thrown into every conversation but i don't have any specific

00:46:57.360 reason to think that israel's um being protected you know that they may or may not have been involved in

00:47:05.360 some epstein blackmail intel thing that would be separate so separate from whether israel had any

00:47:13.120 epstein involvement is a question of whether any prominent israelis are being protected

00:47:20.720 and that i don't have any i don't have any specific reason to think that would be the case

00:47:28.400 but i love the fact that all of us are wondering who is being protected but dershowitz actually knows

00:47:36.480 can you imagine being him can you can you imagine being one of the few people on earth who don't have to

00:47:43.840 wonder he actually knows he knows the actual names of the people being protected and i i think he's telling

00:47:53.680 the truth so i think he does know the names it's kind of weird anyway um ukraine had some military success

00:48:04.240 i guess i guess you'd call it um with their uh sea drones so that would be water-based drones uh blew up

00:48:14.560 two empty um oil tankers that were apparently part of what they call russia's ghost fleet so if you read

00:48:24.320 the news as i did and you found out that two um tankers now there are oil tankers involved in the

00:48:33.840 avoiding sanctions so russia is under sanctions but there are these all these sketchy usually rusty old

00:48:43.120 tankers that have been getting around the sanctions now if i told you as i just did

00:48:49.360 that ukraine had blown up two of them in one one day in the black sea would you think that that would 0.96

00:48:58.080 make a difference what's uh what's missing in the story well what's missing is how many tankers are there

00:49:06.720 if they blew up two and there were only five that's a pretty big story but if you had to guess

00:49:15.440 how many how many ghost tankers do you think russia is using every day not not over time but just every

00:49:26.480 day how many tankers are either carrying an illegal load of russian oil or returning empty to get a load

00:49:37.440 if you had to guess so i'm looking at your numbers uh 18 well if if ukraine took out

00:49:45.440 two of 18 that would be a lot for one day of of work right somebody's saying 200 so i went to grok

00:49:55.680 which by the way i i don't understand any stories in the news anymore unless i've checked with grok

00:50:03.840 now grok could be hallucinating right could be hallucinating so grain of salt but um according to grok

00:50:13.200 over a thousand uh tankers are part of this ghost fleet don't you think that should have been right

00:50:20.960 right at the top of the story now go check the stories

00:50:28.320 is that propaganda because if you said to me oh they they took out two of a thousand

00:50:36.160 i would say oh so they did basically nothing and they were empty so it barely even polluted right

00:50:44.480 um but if you thought the number of total ghost tankers was some lower number maybe in the low hundreds

00:50:54.480 then suddenly two of them being taken out one day start sounding like whoa maybe those ukrainians are doing

00:51:03.360 well so ask yourself this is it bad reporting that they don't give you the context of how many

00:51:11.680 how many tankers there are total is it just bad reporting or is it intentionally trying to create a

00:51:20.880 narrative that ukraine has more of a chance of winning or at least you know pressing the war than they do

00:51:27.840 what do you think is it is that a coincidence do you think it's just a coincidence that the most

00:51:36.160 important number isn't in the story or or maybe they don't know even if they don't know how many uh

00:51:43.680 ghost tankers there are shouldn't they say that as in well two of them went down or at least they were

00:51:50.160 damaged i don't think they went down uh they were damaged and we don't know how many uh there are total

00:51:58.000 that feels like something that story should include right so the fact that it's not in the story

00:52:05.120 tells me that we're seeing a narrative we're not seeing reporting

00:52:11.680 um then i asked grok and remember again grok doesn't have to be right all the time but i'll tell you

00:52:19.760 what grok said because it's interesting i've told you before that one of the ways you can predict the

00:52:26.160 future is by looking at insurance and so i wondered are these boats privately owned not boats ships are

00:52:35.840 are these tankers privately owned and if they're privately owned are they insured and the answer is

00:52:44.320 you know it's there are a variety of situations but some of them uh well let me cut to the important

00:52:51.280 thing i asked grok how much a tanker can earn making one run of you know let's say a full ship of oil

00:53:04.080 and the answer is about three to five million dollars for one run and the cargo would be worth something

00:53:12.480 like 15 to 30 million dollars so they're transporting 15 to 30 million dollars in a in a ship that itself is

00:53:22.640 worth maybe three to five um i'm sorry the ship would be worth something like 15 million plus

00:53:31.360 but they would earn three to five million for just one let's say two month journey there and back

00:53:38.480 so what i'm trying to communicate is that the economics of being a ghost ship owner are so good

00:53:50.240 that you don't need insurance in other words if you just make uh several runs you would earn so much

00:53:59.440 that it would pay for the entire ship going down if it got taken out and since only

00:54:05.920 two of a thousand ships got taken out then the economics are hmm do i take this three million

00:54:14.000 dollars that i'll get in 30 to 60 days at the risk of i don't know maybe one 500 might be the risk of

00:54:24.000 losing the entire ship but you can pay for the entire ship and maybe half a year which would be one of the

00:54:31.600 the best investments you could ever have so the problem is that the economics of avoiding sanctions

00:54:40.800 even at the risk of losing your entire tanker the entire tanker is still overwhelmingly good business

00:54:50.720 and so i think a lot of the ghost tankers are sort of rusty old older tankers that they wouldn't

00:54:58.720 they wouldn't care that much if it went down so it looks to me like um well here's another story along

00:55:10.640 those same lines the wall street journal has an article that says russia is winning the drone war

00:55:18.000 so remember i've told you recently that ukraine's only real advantage maybe just one advantage they have

00:55:26.080 is that they seem to be ahead of russia in building deadly drones and using them effectively well

00:55:34.640 according to the wall street journal that has flipped and now russia has a decided advantage in

00:55:43.200 the drone war one of the things that caught my eye is that uh look this is from the wall street journal

00:55:51.520 today quote large-scale maneuvering remains nearly impossible on a battlefield where masses of cheap

00:55:58.720 drones can see and target movement by soldiers or vehicles so remember i've been telling you for a

00:56:04.240 while that this would turn into a robot only war and it wouldn't even be about people that's basically

00:56:12.400 what the wall street journal is reporting that you wouldn't even bother putting any vehicle into the

00:56:18.880 war zone because it won't last five minutes so if you can't put human occupied you can't do troops

00:56:28.240 or a human driving a truck it's going to be completely depopulated in the the border war zone and it will

00:56:37.680 be literally just drone on drone robot on robot so we're very close to my weird prediction that this would be our

00:56:47.440 first robot on robot war it kind of already is not exactly but it's heading that way all right now i'm going to

00:56:58.720 um let's see i'm gonna confess some stupidity if you don't mind somebody said the other day that's one of the 0.57

00:57:09.280 reasons they like listening to me is that i'm not uh i'm not overly wed to even my own opinions if if the 0.94

00:57:17.920 evidence shows that i've got it wrong then i don't have any hesitation to changing my opinion i'm going

00:57:24.880 to do that right now so i think i said the last few days that for the first time i could kind of imagine

00:57:32.400 there could be a ukraine russia peace deal and until recently i couldn't even imagine it and i'll tell

00:57:41.040 i'll reiterate what i said before i tell you how wrong it was okay so my thinking was that some things have

00:57:48.640 changed recently uh there's pressure on ukraine in the in the uh uh corruption um stuff and maybe that

00:57:58.240 put some pressure on zelensky that his best friend is already being chased out of office

00:58:05.360 um under accusations of corruption um and uh i said well i had a few other arguments but my argument was

00:58:16.640 that we might be closer to some some kind of negotiated settlement than people realize i'm completely going to

00:58:24.880 change that today because i spent some time trying to figure out also using grok for context i wanted to

00:58:33.440 see um how close russia was to economic defeat so it's a war there's sort of a two-part war one part of the war

00:58:46.160 is um killing humans and trying to be the last living humans so that's you know that's one way to

00:58:54.880 look at the war the other way is that they're both attacking each other's economies and that the real war

00:59:01.200 is economic so whoever can cripple the other one economically will will be the winner and i was trying to

00:59:10.640 figure out what would be a scenario in which putin would be willing to make peace right now and here's

00:59:19.600 where i i think i was very wrong yet the other day there is no scenario in which it makes sense for him

00:59:26.480 to stop the war you know if he's only losing two tankers that by the way were not even owned by russia

00:59:34.560 the the tankers that get blown up are owned by wealthy individuals and different countries and russia

00:59:43.040 doesn't even lose anything except two out of a thousand tankers so there there is a according to grok

00:59:54.160 there there is definitely impact on russian citizens so they've got eight or nine percent inflation

01:00:01.360 uh their gdp is kind of flat and uh people are feeling the pitch but it's not the end of the world

01:00:11.680 you know russia is not in a any kind of a depression uh it looks like they can kind of keep going on

01:00:19.680 and one of the things that putin has going for him is he doesn't seem to have to satisfy his public that

01:00:25.920 much because he's going to stay in power and he can control his own media um and so if it doesn't get

01:00:34.720 too much worse he's better off just winning and if you factor in ego you know the after factor in ego

01:00:46.080 i don't see him quitting now because if he quit now even if he you know even if he banked the gains

01:00:53.600 and said okay we have the donbass and we've got crimea and we got a few things we wanted um

01:01:01.600 if he did it would still look like a lot of war for not a lot of gain i think he has to probably

01:01:09.920 gain more before his legacy is looks good and he can argue that it made sense to have the war in the

01:01:17.360 first place because even though he doesn't need to make his population love him you know the way american

01:01:23.440 politicians might he still needs some kind of popular support so i would say that ukraine does

01:01:31.760 not look like it could take out russia's energy infrastructure before russia could take out

01:01:39.520 ukraine's infrastructure um and i don't see anything changing that would make putin want to make peace

01:01:48.240 because all indications are he's slowly gaining and slowly winding down ukraine and ukraine is losing

01:01:57.920 losing support you know it's not going to be won't be supported financially forever so the part that i

01:02:05.760 think i calculated wrong is that i just assumed without thinking about it well enough i guess i just assumed

01:02:14.560 that everybody wants to end war but why would putin apparently he's not too worried about the number

01:02:24.160 of russians being killed in the war so if he doesn't mind that and it's sort of moving in his direction

01:02:33.040 i can't see any reason he would end the war

01:02:35.280 and the only thing that i can imagine changing it is something that changed things economically

01:02:44.400 that somehow russia would allow to happen to them without responding in kind don't you think that the

01:02:53.440 united states is holding back quite a bit because if we go too far um with allowing ukraine to have all

01:03:01.200 the best weapons and stuff if we go too far some of that's gonna come back on the homeland you know

01:03:08.240 russia is gonna not want to put up with that without responding in kind so i don't see any way that as

01:03:16.240 long as putin's in charge and it looks like he'll remain in charge um so i'm gonna i'm gonna re-up my older

01:03:24.000 my older uh prediction that there's no way we get a piece within a year because there's just a not

01:03:33.040 enough happening that would change the balance of where we are right now two out of a thousand ghost

01:03:39.760 anchors i don't know that doesn't seem like enough all right

01:03:46.320 so what else we got going well that ladies and gentlemen is my full show and i appear to be back

01:03:58.480 to full power i'm a little bit quiet today but feel my full energy i was telling people before uh

01:04:06.640 before everybody's dreamed in here that i'm gonna do a separate video maybe today of dad gift ideas for

01:04:14.800 christmas i've got some really good dad gift ideas and it's based entirely on things that i have and

01:04:22.720 you know i'm especially happy about them uh scott is wrong zelensky is going to get arrested well

01:04:30.000 that's that's not part of my prediction i don't have a prediction about zelensky not getting arrested

01:04:37.920 but i also don't have one about him getting arrested i i don't think it matters

01:04:42.960 what ukraine wants or what zelensky wants i don't think they're i think it's between the united states

01:04:50.320 and russia and um i don't think it matters at all what zelensky wants so that's just not part of my

01:05:01.360 prediction at all either way whether he gets arrested or not shouldn't affect have any effect on whether

01:05:08.800 uh putin wants to keep going

01:05:14.640 well you know i wasn't going to mention the coffee warmer but maybe i'll add that to the list

01:05:22.640 uh tankers are mostly owned by greek companies i don't think that's true that the ghost tankers are

01:05:31.840 mostly owned by greek uh i do believe that there are a lot of greek registered tankers but i don't

01:05:40.000 think mostly i think it's a grab bag of basically all kinds of sketchy tanker people from around the

01:05:48.400 world that's what grok led me to believe

01:05:51.440 well that is so wrong i can tell the people i want to ignore the most the the people who listen to

01:06:01.520 my entire uh ukraine prediction and then all they have to do is they say scott you should read up more

01:06:10.640 or you're so wrong that's not an opinion you're so wrong tell me one thing i got wrong anything pick

01:06:21.760 pick the top thing you think i'm misinterpreting or missing or not calculating just tell me one thing

01:06:29.680 that you think i don't know or i have not included in my opinion and you'll get really quiet right now

01:06:36.640 all right ladies and gentlemen i'm gonna say goodbye for most of you and i'm gonna uh talk to my beloved

01:06:50.480 local subscribers the best subscribers ever and uh i'll see the rest of you

01:06:57.920 soon but let's see if i can get my technology to do what i want so local supporters beloveds

01:07:06.640 are you

01:07:36.640 Thank you.

01:08:06.640 Thank you.

01:08:36.640 Thank you.

01:09:06.640 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 30, 2025

Episode 3032 CWSA 11⧸30⧸25

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