Episode 3054 CWSA 12⧸26⧸25
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 13 minutes
Words per Minute
127.86442
Summary
It's the last day of the year and there's not much in the news, but there's plenty of stuff to talk about! Recorded in Los Angeles, CA! Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and much more!
Transcript
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bitcoin flat spider flat won't be much action today come on in we're almost ready for a show
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all right we'll get the locals comments going here
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and then we'll do the ever popular simultaneous sip
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i think my cat picture is especially good today
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we're cooking now all right people come in come in come in
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i wonder if some of you delay just skip the simultaneous sip
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do you well it's gonna happen anyway because i know why you're here all you need is a copper mugger
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glass to take your chelsea stein i can't even jugger flask a vessel of a kind fill it with your
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favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine
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change of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip it happens
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well here's a special announcement there are still some dilbert calendars left but not many
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so you know because i'm independently publishing now uh we had to guess how many to publish
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i gotta tell you we guessed pretty well we made a good guess which means that we sold almost all of
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them which means that if you know anybody wants one they better order it right away from amazon amazon's
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the only place you can get it the dilbert 2026 calendar act now before they're all gone
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i don't think we're gonna print more so get your get yours well apparently there's some enormous storm
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coming or has already hit so a weird thing happened which is because christmas was on a thursday
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a lot of people said okay uh friday we'll do you know the in-laws party and saturday on thursday
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we'll do ours but some people moved it to saturday but now it looks like everything's gonna be snowed in
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so the people who moved their party to saturday probably gonna move it to sunday
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so people are gonna be celebrating thursday uh christmas on sunday just because the weird way that the
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the date hit in the snow it's gonna feel weird celebrating christmas three days after christmas
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i wouldn't say there's much news today but there's stuff to talk about
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so if you lower your expectations and say to yourself you know what there's not much else on tv
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or on social media so it's we're just gonna be hanging out
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and i'll chatter about a few things that i find interesting that are in the news
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so i saw in a mario an awful post that tesla is estimating that a full self-driving mode on their
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cars could save 32 000 lives a year and avoid 1.9 million injuries did you have any idea
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that uh that uh automobile accidents were causing 1.9 million injuries per year
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the 32 000 i knew or the apparently 40 40 000 die
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and car crashes that was in the range of what i i knew but wow a lot of people got injured
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so the thinking is that uh full self-driving would cut down on injuries by 80 percent
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all right all right what else so here's a little obscure story that i'll bet most of you
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have not been following it's about the 2020 election
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and it's something that the rasmussen reports account has been hammering for like four years
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so four or five years they've been posting on the same topic and here's the topic allegedly
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uh and there's a part that's not legend but the part we know is that there was a locked warehouse
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in fulton georgia in which allegedly there were a bunch of uh ballasts that got counted
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that are sketchy now i don't remember why they were sketchy they were either all the same or i don't know
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there was something about them that was presumed to be sketchy but nobody could check it out
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because the room was locked and the a judge had been asked to you know force them to release it and
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unlock it but the judge had not acted so years went by when rasmussen would report uh it seemed like once a
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week well that that room is still locked now you might say to yourself well over all that time
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if that room had anything in it that was controversial there would there would have been enough time to
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you know change them out or steal them sort of like ford knocks so uh apparently the judge
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robert mcburney who is being accused of being corrupt but i don't know about that
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he finally approved access so some cynics are saying that he waited long enough that the statute of
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limitations might be running out for whoever whoever did the alleged crimes that would be a crime of you
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you know election drinking allegedly but i asked grok about that
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that's weird somebody outside my house must be a package delivery
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anyway um i asked grok about the statute of limitations
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it says mostly mostly for election felonies would be seven years but because everything takes years
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there might be a way for the bad guys again this is just speculation hypothesis
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you know allegations the bad guys could somehow find another way to stall for another two years
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and nobody would go to jail now i don't know if they can but in theory the reason that the uh
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i guess it was the government some some element of the government of georgia
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was blocking the release because they estimated it would cost 400 000 to unlock the door
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now what does that mean i have no idea why would it cost the government 400 000 to unlock a door
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presumably the unlocking of the door was linked with some kind of audit that i guess the government
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would be involved in i don't really understand but given that the republicans would pay anything
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to prove that the election was rigged especially trump i don't think it would be hard
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for them to raise four hundred thousand dollars so it seems to be a fake reason that it would be too
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expensive that must be just the excuse that reason so there is a non-zero chance and i wouldn't know
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how to put an estimate on this but there's a non-zero chance that everything you suspected about the
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election will be revealed really soon i'm not sure what i would think if it turned out all the elections
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were perfectly legal because it doesn't make sense to me that if all the ballots were perfectly legal
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and georgia wanted to prove that nothing was rigged they would have just unlocked the door
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and they would have said well we're not going to pay for it but knock yourself out but they didn't do
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that they pretended like they didn't have the budget to do it so that's really really sketchy
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so we'll find out if there's still anything behind that door i don't know that it's been unlocked yet
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but maybe in the coming week maybe they're waiting to get the 400 000 covered we'll find out don't you
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believe that the arc of history um it's where they would don't you believe that the arc of history
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is bending toward 100 confirmation that the election was rigged doesn't it feel like there's nothing
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that can stop that from happening really all it took was republicans to have enough time and enough
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you know enough influence that they could go look at the stuff they wanted to look at
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but i will warn you that a tremendous amount of allegations about the election have not been proven
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to be true so this this could very easily be you know disappointing but we'll find out
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so here's a very little small story but newsmax is reporting that uh trump was asked somewhere
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about the ai boom and the bubble and could could the ai boom damage the economy blah blah
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and trump's answer was quote no i love ai according to the new york times now have you noticed
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that trump has a very young brain i mean he's conservative in sort of a you know old school
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conservative way but whenever there's something that's new tech um he's unusually
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good at embracing it and ai is one of those things crypto is another one of those things
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even when he got in trouble for talking about covet it's because he knew more than the doctors did
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about light being a disinfectant and just the way he jokes about things he has a very young brain
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and i've never seen that much experience paired with that much of a sort of a youthful
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approach to the world and i'm wondering in this case um how much it made a difference
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that he's got david sacks you know who would obviously you know make him comfortable with
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crypto as well as ai and uh you know a bunch of other people from jared to um well you know
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you could name a few so he's got a lot of young advisors but he actually listens to them and he's
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clearly influenced by them so yeah he's he's very young brained
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anyway will the will the robots take all our jobs
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peter navarro one of trump's top trade advisors or maybe his top trade advisor he's urging workers to
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consider going into the trades would that be a good answer for you to go into the trades like go out
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and fix air conditioners and be a mechanic and be a plumber and all that i gotta say i'm pretty lucky
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that i was born in a time when that wasn't something you had to do i would never be good at that
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i would be good at sitting in a cubicle i would be good at typing things i'd be good at creativity
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but i would never be good at fixing your ac so i'm glad i don't have to make that choice
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however it made me wonder what the future looks like i'm going to make a prediction
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prediction prediction number one i believe that in the same way that unions can make companies do
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things they don't want to do right the a union can make a company do what it doesn't want to do
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and that's probably true for you know influence over the government as well because if your union was
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big enough uh it could influence voting so i believe there will be a robot union which is people not
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robots so maybe i said that wrong let me say it a different way i believe there will form a new union
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that might be a collection of existing unions or it might be a new one and their primary their primary
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objective will be to make sure that you can't put a robot into the field as a worker unless you have
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at least one human uh in charge on site had to be on site so have you ever had a plumber come to your
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house and they start working and then they realize there's a part that they need so they have to stop
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what they're doing go drive somewhere and get a part and come back uh and you've watched people doing
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service work in your house and you know there's one person who might be doing demolition and dragging
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stuff away and another person who's doing the carpentry or the hard stuff i see a world where a plumber
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would have one or two robots that show up at the same time but the plumber would be in charge
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and this new union i'm talking about would guarantee that even if you knew you could do it with just
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robots it just wouldn't be legal you just it wouldn't happen so and even if you had your own robot
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the law could be so gamed that you wouldn't be you wouldn't be allowed to use your own robot
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even to do some plumbing at your own house so i think that the laws and as well as the unions
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will conspire to keep people employed even if that's not the best idea but can't you just imagine
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this all right close your eyes and imagine the robots and the one guy the plumber let's just say
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plumber the plumber shows up and he's got two robot assistants and he says one of the robots to get a
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part that robot is a self-driving car literally goes down to the uh you know hardware store picks up the
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part and if you're not sure it can send you a picture so you know it's picking up the right thing
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pays for it with some kind of digital payment drives back meanwhile the other robot has identified where the
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leak is just by putting this row by hand on the wall and it can identify where the leak is and then
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when it finds it it needs to maybe take down a piece of the wall so the the human plumber says all right
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robot uh take out this part of the the she rock and the robot goes and then you can see the leak
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and then the the plumber says all right i'm going to need some plumber's tape i'm going to need this
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and i'm going to need this tool and even before he's done talking his robot assistant is already
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going to the toolbox and has those exact things now maybe the robot would do the work of you know
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wrapping up things and fixing things with the supervision of the human or maybe before we get
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to that point the human still does the work because it's maybe it's just slightly outside of what the
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robots can do but the robots are learning like an apprentice so on day one you get a cheap robot
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that can only fetch and maybe do some demo stuff and maybe get some tools but as you do work the robot
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learns the same way an apprentice would so your robot would become more and more valuable every time
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they'd accompany you on a plumber trip so that's what i think but give me some feedback on that do you
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think that's reasonable so the things i'm predicting are that the unions and the laws will guarantee the
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after you have a human if a robot's doing some physical work do you agree with that part
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that would just make your your plumbers more effective all right how many jobs do you know
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where you ask for some service person to come to your house and you can't get them there in a week
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a lot right are there not a lot of situations where you want a service but they're booked up so you
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can't get to them for a week well if you add the robots maybe it's the same workers but they can do
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three jobs a day instead of two so suddenly suddenly your your human plumber is making twice as much money
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so um there's another ai company that's being skeptical about the robots let's see if i can find that story
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all right here's a story so i think this was in the wall street journal
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today that the headline is even the companies making humanoid robots think they're overhyped
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so you know what i've been saying for forever so i believe i was ahead of the curve is that if robots
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could do more than one thing they would already be deployed but we keep seeing these demos where the
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robot is trained to do exactly one thing like iron a shirt but that skill does not it doesn't go to
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anything else you can't you can't just give it an ai brain today and have it figure out stuff you would
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have to specifically train it for every little task so that's why you do see robots in warehouses
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because a warehouse is a very limited training set uh if you get this command go get this box
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you know carry this box over here and put it there so it's such a small domain that a robot could work
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in a warehouse but i've been saying for a while if you if you have any experience with the large
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language model ais which are the dominant part that they don't really have any hope of becoming general
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intelligence there's nothing that they're doing the ai the ai industry i don't believe there's anything
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they're doing that could logically lead to a general intelligence robot
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and and i think that some of the experts are saying it too you know now that they've all been overfunded
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they can tell the truth but there's this one guy i guess he's uh head of a ai company called
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i don't know his name is a velika booty and he's skeptical so he says the same thing i do that you can
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train them to do warehouse tasks but did you know that for every hundred dollars you would spend on a robot
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um only about 20 dollars of that as a robot and the rest of the rest of the money is for protecting
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humans from the robots now i think that means physically so that the robot doesn't you know
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accidentally run you over or something so here's my question um elon musk is very pro-robot
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and i wonder what does he know that the other top people in the industry don't know now it's always
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a bad idea to bet against musk when he's making a prediction of the future you know he might be off
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by timing but it's a bad idea to bet against him he very clearly believes that that the optimist robots
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robots will be general purpose robots and uh apparently his version of ai is way ahead of
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the other ais but is he way ahead in a way that would give us general intelligence
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or is he just way ahead in the way that we can never get general intelligence you know maybe his
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will hallucinate less or something but what does he know is he going about it in a completely different
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way now i know that he trained his cars with video but again that's that's a limited domain so as as
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varied as the possibilities are for a car i mean there's a a trillion different things that a car could
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have to do you could probably get to a trillion so you can i think you could train a car
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on a trillion different possibilities and then it would be better than human but it would still be
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trained for a narrow domain which is driving safely so i get how we can uh get to self-driving cars
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that that makes total sense you just train them with video instead of language
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but how do you get to a butler how would you ever get to a butler where there's something new every
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day that is never seen what does he know that we don't know do does his ai have a like a secret um like
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a skunk works that nobody knows about that's getting close to it and i've said this before but it's
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a really good tip if you think that you'll have a robot butler in one year you would already see it
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right because i can't believe that uh that the robots would be launching in one year
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and they didn't know how to do it yet does that even make sense you know what do you think there's
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any possibility that a big serious you know high functioning company would say oh yeah in a year
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we'll have robot butlers but we have no idea how to do it at the moment no big company would do that
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you know not tesla not anybody so if you're not hearing today that they have one in the lab that
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has general intelligence and you're not i don't believe there's going to be one in a year
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i want to be wrong how many of you agree with my assessment
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that if they can't do it today it's not going to be a product in one year would you agree with that
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well once again unless i guess i have to say it one more time um in a sense i'm betting against
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ceylon musk's prediction but what he knows about this topic is you know a thousand times more than
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i know so does he know more than i know or is he just being is it just wishful thinking and my guess
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is he knows more than i know so therefore oh i guess i should um i should reveal this every once in a
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while i do own tesla stock so i want it to work and i desperately want elon to be right and me to be
00:27:48.240
wrong and i literally have my money bet i actually bet my money against myself i bet my money on elon
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instead of myself which probably isn't a good bet all right enough about that
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so if any of you had the experience that ai has already ruined your youtube experience
00:28:24.320
apparently there's a way to fix that by blocking the videos that
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we're downloading them somehow and then youtube will learn what to not give you ai slop
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so ai slop if you haven't heard that term is ai content that is sort of impressive
00:28:44.080
but not really something you want to see too often so that's called slop so when i go to youtube
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let's say two or three years ago if i went to youtube and i saw a topic that i was interested in
00:29:00.240
it was made by humans and it would keep me interested for you know an hour but today if i see something
00:29:08.800
that interests me um it's almost always slop and it'll be this you know this boring robot voice
00:29:20.000
and the andes is a mountain range and it's just sort of repetitive and not interesting and blah
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and and there's so much of the ai crap that searching through it to find something that's not ai
00:29:36.080
is just too much work so that's one of the reasons that i just stopped watching youtube mostly not
00:29:43.760
completely and i do videos on x because if you go to x you go to the side menu on your app
00:29:53.520
one of the options now is video and what they do really well is they only feed you video
00:29:59.760
that the algorithm thinks you would be interested in so that's not ai
00:30:04.160
so i will catch up on all kinds of politics and technology and ai stuff and tesla stuff
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and i don't have to do anything i just hit the button once it just goes from video to video and
00:30:21.760
i can listen to it all day so youtube's got a problem
00:30:33.280
let's talk about the mar-a-lago raid i know that's old news but mike davis has an article
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about it in fox news so here are some of the things to just summarize
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the whole mar-a-lago raid for the the classified documents um did you know that the fbi agents
00:30:55.200
allegedly lacked probable cause which would be sort of a crime so i think what is something that we
00:31:03.760
learned from the uh now released files somehow we learned this is that the fbi said they didn't know
00:31:11.120
what the uh didn't know what the probable cause was which would make it completely illegal to do a
00:31:19.360
that kind of a raid but they were allegedly uh pressed by the biden administration to do it anyway
00:31:29.200
now i think they're still in the allegedly category but getting closer to fact
00:31:33.440
uh secondly and this part i don't i'm not convinced about this but some say that the real reason for
00:31:43.920
the raid was that trump had some uh records about operation crossfire hurricane which would implicate
00:31:53.360
the old obama and brennan people and so they were trying to really get that so it looked like it was
00:32:00.960
about classified information but really it was about making sure that trump did not have documents that
00:32:07.600
would incriminate democrats do you believe that that is just that is just slightly too far into conspiracy
00:32:19.120
theory for me very possible i wouldn't rule it out but i say i don't believe there are any documents that
00:32:30.080
show that are there have there have there been any whistleblowers who said the real reason is because
00:32:36.560
those crossfire hurricane documents by now there would be a whistleblower right and i don't believe
00:32:44.800
we've seen one so i'm going to say maybe all right and then there's some issue about the judge
00:32:52.240
who was not very uh not very neutral and i guess i did the bad guys the democrats did some uh judge
00:33:02.160
shopping and i found this guy uh judge bruce reinhart of the southern district of florida
00:33:09.520
so he's the one who signed a warrant but just six weeks earlier he had recused himself from some
00:33:16.240
trump clinton lawsuit and the reason was that he had as a civilian in 2017 he had written a facebook post
00:33:24.480
viciously bashing trump so the department of justice apparently found the the one person you could
00:33:34.480
guarantee was anti-trump that's the guy that signed the warrant now again judge shopping is not illegal right
00:33:46.240
as far as i know it's not illegal it's just not ideal so
00:33:58.800
we'll keep an eye on that so russell brand has been charged with new allegations of rape
00:34:05.760
and sexual assault raybar news is reporting i think i told you that when
00:34:11.600
russell brand was originally accused of those things several years ago i guess um that i happened to be
00:34:19.920
booked for a show so i went on his show while he was right in the middle of all the accusations
00:34:28.400
and he was losing everything as he was being demonetized and let me tell you i thought my interview
00:34:35.520
with him was gonna be a lot of fun but he was not really in the mood he was not in the mood to have
00:34:42.320
a lot of fun and i completely understand that but he's being hit again with new new charges
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um and i don't have an opinion about who did what or who's guilty of what i will give this you this
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context that i think is useful every time this kind of a story comes up and the context goes like this
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pretty much every rich and powerful um man is is accused falsely of sex crimes
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pretty much all of them so if you've got somebody of his um his notoriety especially if he's known to be a
00:35:25.920
sex addict especially if he's seemed to be siding with one part of the political aisle
00:35:33.600
the odds of him having a false accusation were a hundred percent now that does not mean
00:35:42.560
that these allegations are false it only means that you should not judge it
00:35:47.520
by the fact that they exist because there was a hundred percent chance that someone like him would
00:35:55.040
be falsely accused even if there were any real things he ever did so that that's the only thing
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i'm going to add to the story and trust me you could talk to any if you privately talk to any let's say rich
00:36:11.680
ceo i'll bet you every one of them would say yeah you know my secretary
00:36:17.600
or you have some employee accused me and often it's people you never met because i told i told you i've
00:36:24.880
been accused of sexual abuse by someone who lives in canada i've never met
00:36:31.120
right so they called the people i worked with and the one moment that the the crazy woman she called
00:36:39.440
the people i worked with the people in my restaurant where they owned the restaurant
00:36:43.600
and told them that i was a terrible rapist and that on a regular basis i would travel to canada
00:36:50.160
and rifle through her possessions and then sexually abused her
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now i promise you this is nobody i've ever met this is pure crazy woman but the people who received the
00:37:02.880
call how do they know how would they know if that's real or not so that's that is the world of high
00:37:12.400
profile people but this makes me ask the following question how did we go from an environment of me too
00:37:22.000
every single day to it doesn't really get in the news much did something change is it possible that the
00:37:32.480
the ceos have learned you know just don't do anything that would get you in trouble
00:37:38.640
is it possible that the mike pence rule where you just don't allow yourself to be alone with a woman
00:37:44.320
uh are many are ceos doing that because i have to admit uh um when i first heard the mike pence rule
00:37:55.280
that he would not go to lunch for example even a business lunch you wouldn't even do a business lunch
00:38:01.440
with a woman by herself unless he brought his wife and i think we all laughed at that right
00:38:07.760
ha ha ha you know old mike pence you know it's mike pence don't live in the past you know women are
00:38:16.000
part of the workforce you know if they want to go to lunch for business should be exactly like a man
00:38:23.360
and it didn't take me long to realize he was a smart one so i don't know what is it you know maybe
00:38:32.400
he was probably religious and partly being faithful to his wife but man that is a good way to protect
00:38:39.200
yourself you just don't ever allow yourself to be alone with somebody who might accuse you
00:38:48.960
that's not a bad rule so could it be that so many people kind of took that to heart
00:38:57.680
that the rate of me tooing went way down maybe or was it never real and it was always a sort of a
00:39:07.440
news related thing let me say a different way maybe the rate of me tooing has always been the same
00:39:16.800
but when it was in the news uh the people who were the victims of the me tooing were far more likely to
00:39:24.320
pursue it but once it falls out of the news then maybe they feel you know there'll be retaliation or
00:39:32.480
you know they'd rather just move on with their life so is it my imagination so give me give me a
00:39:40.320
comment here is it my imagination or is it real that the me tooing thing was just every day
00:39:48.080
but now it's just sort of shrunk and you don't really hear i mean you still hear about it but it's
00:39:56.000
like way less what would that be why do you think that would be if it's true that we're hearing about
00:40:05.440
less well i guess some new york times reporter is suing the big ai companies in this case
00:40:14.720
this would include x so google x open ai they're suing over chatbot training so i guess they're
00:40:25.120
worried that the chatbots read their books without permission and got trained on them and they think
00:40:31.600
that's some kind of a copyright violation now you've heard this before it's sort of an old story that
00:40:39.840
authors but i guess they're not doing a class action in this case which has some extra risk for the ai
00:40:47.840
companies allegedly so i ask it i ask ai about my books and it generally it knows well here's what it
00:41:01.680
pretends to know if i ask ai you know what's on page whatever of my book it can't do it so it's not
00:41:10.720
trained that well if i ask it to summarize my book it can do it but it takes a summary from other people's
00:41:20.960
comments about the book so it is legal for the ai to look at public comments like a review of the book or
00:41:30.800
what somebody said about it on social media for example and usually they that's enough to piece
00:41:36.000
together what the book was about so in a sense ai at least in my case uh finds a workaround
00:41:45.360
that doesn't look like a copyright violation to me because there's there's no problem quoting a
00:41:52.240
reviewer or something so i asked uh gemini today um if it was true that uh john bogle who is the famous
00:42:05.680
vanguard index fund guy is it true that he wants to use my financial advice in his book because i was
00:42:15.360
wondering you know who i have influence and according to gemini um it could tell me the page number and
00:42:23.360
the book and i think it was year 2010 that his book took my nine page personal finance advice and he just
00:42:32.560
included it in the book because he thought it was so well done it was really well done um
00:42:39.120
um and that was i think mostly right but when he said it could give me the page number i'll bet that
00:42:48.080
was a hallucination so i don't know i've not i cannot confirm that his book included my financial advice
00:42:57.920
i can confirm that a few people asked for permission to reprint that
00:43:03.600
so whether he did or not i don't know anyway um did you know that i have i've had an influence on
00:43:14.400
personal finance how many of you knew that that's one of the weird areas that i had an influence you
00:43:24.880
know how i've told you that one of the ways to be influential is to be the person who writes it down
00:43:31.520
whatever it is if you write it down you become influential if you do a good job of writing it down
00:43:40.400
so because i'm a cartoonist and i'm really good at summarizing i found a way to write down all the
00:43:47.520
advice you would ever need for personal finance in just nine bullet points and so the breakthrough was
00:43:55.680
not that i knew more than anybody else the breakthrough is that i figured out how to do
00:44:01.200
it in nine bullet points that would be in the order this is the key part there would be in the order
00:44:07.280
that you should do them nobody did that before everybody else just said this is a good idea this
00:44:13.360
is a bad idea good idea bad idea but it was overwhelming so i get rid of the overwhelming part
00:44:20.960
by just saying if you don't know anything else do this i think number one was make a will if you have
00:44:28.880
if you have uh people you're trying to take care of
00:44:34.320
but of course you should do that first why would you leave yourself exposed so i don't know if ai got that
00:44:43.520
right well jasmine crockett your favorite democrat yes i said democrat she she's got a new technique
00:45:01.360
it's so bad that it's almost good so she was asked uh breitbart news was reporting this so in some
00:45:07.840
interview recently um she was asked if she accepts the idea that the current administration has vastly
00:45:17.520
reduced illegal border crossings now would you agree that one of the most obviously documented
00:45:26.640
total facts is that the trump administration has in fact reduced the number of illegal border crossings
00:45:35.120
now how could she possibly say that that didn't happen
00:45:54.560
well here's what she did so she didn't want to give credit
00:45:57.840
for what is an immense account accomplishment so instead she said but we know that this administration
00:46:07.680
has not been the most honest when it comes to reporting numbers
00:46:12.320
so instead of saying yes obviously they stopped border crossings she questioned whether the data was accurate
00:46:19.520
uh oh my god i i hate it and i love it at the same time it's so bold that you would even go that direction
00:46:31.520
but if you assume that the public isn't really following things closely she says well you know they
00:46:39.200
they cheated on the jobs numbers i don't know if that's true but she said the jobs numbers were fake
00:46:44.800
so if the job numbers were fake could it also be true that the border numbers were fake no
00:46:54.400
because we would definitely notice that the border numbers were fake
00:46:58.400
if the border was exactly the way it had been you don't think we would have noticed
00:47:04.080
it's harder to notice unemployment or employment you know especially if you're talking one or two percent
00:47:11.280
but it's not hard to notice that the border is wide open or totally closed but the the husba
00:47:20.320
of even saying that it might be a data reporting problem by the administration that's pretty bold
00:47:32.160
so apparently there's a giant tanker oil tanker that
00:47:36.960
uh is one of these shadow fleet trying to illegally move oil from venezuela and so the coast guard started
00:47:47.520
chasing it down and instead of surrendering which you would expect them to do because they're literally
00:47:55.600
up against the military so instead of surrendering they decided to do a u-turn and make a run for it
00:48:02.240
now obviously they're not going to outrun the coast guard so there's a little bit of a mystery as to why
00:48:09.840
they haven't surrendered because the the staff of the of the uh the vessel they're not military
00:48:18.800
you know they're just underpaid seamen so to speak so why would they even take a chance it's not their oil
00:48:26.960
you know i mean i suppose there's some risk of penalty to them if they give it up but then
00:48:34.400
what do they think they think they're going to outrun the coast guard
00:48:38.800
so part of the story wall street journal is reporting on this is that the u.s is just waiting to
00:48:46.880
bring some more military assets in so they can do a proper military takeover of the boat
00:48:53.360
if they don't voluntarily surrender it looks like they're not so did you know that there's such a
00:49:01.120
thing as a maritime special response team so apparently the u.s military has a group
00:49:08.480
who are specially trained in elite force for boarding hostile ships and i guess what they do is they bring
00:49:16.080
in a bunch of helicopters and that you know the helicopters keep everybody busy then the special
00:49:23.120
elite team they rappel down presumably i i don't think the helicopter lands i think they probably
00:49:30.400
rappel down and then they use their superior weaponry to make it to the bridge and then basically take
00:49:38.960
over and then there's some speculation that they're looking for a captain who would know how to run the boat
00:49:44.960
after the ship after they take the ship after they take it over because it's it's not that common
00:49:51.840
to know how to operate that kind of a ship so it might be hard to find somebody who's willing to
00:50:03.840
would they be seals i don't know maybe there would be a subset of seals
00:50:08.880
but the seals were not mentioned in this story anyway as part of that story i keep hearing is said that
00:50:21.360
if the venezuelan oil shipments are shut down or even seriously degraded that it will collapse the
00:50:28.800
economy of cuba because cuba is already a basket case and it depends on cheap venezuelan oil
00:50:36.480
so if the cheap venezuelan oil gets cut off or or seriously degraded some people say oh the cuban
00:50:46.000
economy will collapse to which i say there's never been a time in my life when the cuban economy was not
00:50:54.560
on the border of collapse do you believe that they're going to collapse every time we hear this
00:51:01.840
things don't collapse release down completely so it seems like there's always a work around for
00:51:15.600
but the thing i still don't know is if the trump administration thinks they're getting a twofer
00:51:22.320
and that they're going to find a way to do regime change in cuba the hard way
00:51:30.480
just indirectly by putting pressure on their their sponsor don't know
00:51:42.000
according to politico the u.s immigration customs enforcement people that we know as ice
00:51:49.520
are buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of surveillance tools
00:51:58.240
so that they can find the uh the non-legal residents so that would include uh let's see social social
00:52:07.280
media monitoring tools facial recognition software license plate readers and services to find people
00:52:15.520
where people live and work so let me take you back to something i've been predicting for 10 years
00:52:26.720
if you think you can protect your privacy you can't your privacy was always going to disappear
00:52:37.280
and it wouldn't matter who's in charge and the reason i say that is that the utility
00:52:42.320
of taking your privacy away is just too high so the government whoever the government is is going to
00:52:50.080
say you know you know we really need to you know we really need to uh do this for the illegals
00:52:59.200
then the next thing you know you're going to say well we have all these tools
00:53:04.640
you know why don't we also sell it to the police force
00:53:06.960
and i don't think it will ever matter if the democrats or the republicans are in charge
00:53:14.000
i think in every scenario just the usefulness of taking away your privacy for law and order
00:53:23.600
will be so high that you don't have a chance it will just disappear and i'm not saying that's a good
00:53:31.600
idea i'm just saying it's inevitable so you know if you're worried about it happening
00:53:39.760
maybe what you should worry about is not doing anything that can be discovered that you would
00:53:44.720
want to be discovered because a full lack of privacy is just guaranteed in the future
00:53:53.040
i mean that's before you have a robot in your house
00:53:55.280
how much privacy you can have with a robot in your house all right let me ask you this let's say
00:54:03.120
you've got a an optimist robot and the police say if we can get that robot to spy on you that we can
00:54:14.000
find out you know if you're doing anything bad would elon musk say nope even though you have a warrant
00:54:22.880
i will not i will not turn on the ability to monitor people through the robot which would be
00:54:30.960
presumably not that hard but even elon musk can't defy the department of justice
00:54:39.280
so if the department of justice says oh yeah this is a totally legitimate use of a warrant you've got
00:54:47.360
a robot we can listen through the robot we are ordering you to make that robot a spy would he do it
00:54:58.880
i don't know that he would have a choice i think he would go to jail if he didn't do it
00:55:03.280
so yeah as soon as there's a robot in every house you'd better not break any laws
00:55:17.520
surprisingly there's a report that uh zelensky is going to meet at mar-a-lago on sunday to try to
00:55:25.840
reach an agreement now that surprises me because the most recent comment from the russian envoys
00:55:33.680
was that they're not they didn't make any progress recently and they're not close to a deal but there
00:55:40.400
are some hints that they might be close to a deal one of the hints is that trump probably wouldn't take
00:55:46.800
the meeting unless he thought it was close enough that he could push it over the edge now he's an
00:55:52.880
optimist so just because he thinks they might be close that doesn't mean they're close
00:55:58.800
but it's worth a try so remember he's got uh you know kushner and wick off working on this
00:56:07.040
and they're very good at what they do so maybe we're gonna we're in for a surprise but according to
00:56:16.160
axios here are some of the things that are the the biggest sticking points and why we might be closer
00:56:23.200
to a deal than we think one is that ukraine needed security guarantees and apparently the u.s is willing
00:56:32.640
to put some legislation through congress that would give them security guarantees without nato
00:56:41.120
now what would that look like what exactly would a u.s security guarantee be unless it meant we would
00:56:51.120
put boots on the ground if russia got adventurous well i don't know but one of the things it could be
00:56:59.680
is an open-ended you know we will respond but that what we would plan to do is give the ukrainians the
00:57:07.920
good weapons that we've never given them before so suppose we said uh here's the deal russia we have
00:57:16.640
held back our best weapons because it would look like we're part of the war if we give it the good stuff
00:57:25.120
but if we give them a security guarantee and you move on them militarily we will instantly take the
00:57:34.320
controls off and they can have everything except our nuclear weapons so suddenly you will not be facing
00:57:43.760
ukrainian weapons you'll be facing the most optimized american weapons if you look at what companies like
00:57:51.440
and drill are doing to make our weapons smarter cheaper that would be quite a threat and it would
00:57:58.800
not guarantee that there would be any boots on the ground but it could be quite a good quite a good
00:58:04.960
incentive for russia to stay away so i'm just speculating that there is a way to create a security guarantee
00:58:13.360
that would be um that would be sensible i wasn't sure there would be
00:58:22.160
um and that if russia responds military there would also be sanctions of course
00:58:28.640
and maybe the sanctions would be worse if they could be worse
00:58:31.440
um then the other thing that uh russia wants is it wants complete control over the donbass
00:58:43.440
so it sounds like they're not flexible on control of the donbass which would require i think ukraine to
00:58:52.240
actually pull out of some part of the donbass that they have not yet lost and russia would have control
00:58:59.280
over what they already have plus a little extra now here's what the u.s seems to have counter-proposed
00:59:10.480
since the word that's being used is control is it possible that you can find a hybrid situation
00:59:19.040
where russia feels like it has enough control to be let's say safe from a military build up there
00:59:27.440
or safe from something bad happening but that uh i guess uh i guess wickhoff and jared kushner have
00:59:36.880
suggested that they turn that into the donbass into a free economic zone so that you reframe it
00:59:45.840
and i like this part you reframe the donbass from a military zone to an economic zone
00:59:52.080
and you say how about we make this the one place that you could make some money and there's not going
00:59:59.840
to be any war if that works for you it works for us we don't need to put any missiles there
01:00:05.440
you don't need to attack it but you could have something like control
01:00:13.440
do you think there's any hybrid situation in which russia would say all right
01:00:18.400
that's enough control because we're worried about security we're worried about
01:00:23.760
the u.s putting some missiles there and we would agree not to maybe maybe i think there might be
01:00:31.120
something there and let's see um and apparently there's some issue about a ceasefire because russia
01:00:43.920
doesn't want to do a ceasefire until they have a deal but ukraine is saying we can't have a deal
01:00:52.560
because of our laws unless we have a referendum and the referendum ended in voting to give up that
01:01:01.440
control of the donbass but it looks like the russians understand that if the if the referendum is the
01:01:08.960
only way to get there and the only way that referendum is with a ceasefire that might be
01:01:16.320
negotiable so maybe that's something that they would cave on
01:01:22.640
so anyway i'm just speculating that it's possible i'd probably still bet against it but it's possible
01:01:30.480
that they're close to a deal and then i saw in where did i see this in the amuse account on x
01:01:41.200
pointed out i don't know what the source of this is but amuse is good on sources
01:01:45.760
that the european union has committed to this blows my mind that the european union
01:01:52.320
has deals to buy russian energy through 2027 so that would be that would imply that russia could
01:02:02.160
continue affording the war for at least two more years so it's possible that russia you know might
01:02:11.840
want to make a deal but maybe they could wait another two years and see if they get more control
01:02:17.360
over the donbass if they don't care about the casualties so it just blows my mind that europe
01:02:24.160
is still you know attached to uh russian oil then um apparently there's some people in the
01:02:34.800
administration who think that if we make peace with russia that would be a four-way peace you know
01:02:42.880
europe u.s ukraine russia if we could make peace that russia has such unlimited natural resources
01:02:52.880
that everybody can make a ton of money but the counter to that is that the entire economy of russia
01:03:02.160
is about the size of italy italy's economy and it's sort of shrinking they've got a demographic problem
01:03:10.240
but the biggest problem that russia has is that if you're a legitimate business person from the west
01:03:17.840
and you built a company that made money in russia the russians would steal it they would literally
01:03:25.440
just steal your company because russia is basically a criminal organization pretending to be a country
01:03:32.800
so do you think it's and they don't have that many resources that are they're unique so the thinking is
01:03:41.280
that if you thought russia was this gold mine of natural resources well it does have some natural
01:03:49.440
resources but it's not essential to run the world uh and it's so risky to do any kind of business in
01:03:59.280
russia that you'd be crazy to try so one question is can we really sell the idea that doing business with
01:04:11.840
russia is good for them and good for us i can see why it would be good for them because if if an american
01:04:19.120
company comes in and you know let's say you know builds this really successful energy enterprise
01:04:26.320
working with the russians the russians would steal it they would nationalize it they would jail the ceo
01:04:34.640
they would just steal it so we'll see if uh we'll see if that's even a path they can take hey everybody
01:04:46.320
makes money we'll see well over christmas if you weren't paying attention uh the u.s launched strikes
01:04:57.920
on the islamic state targets in nigeria apparently nigerian isis has been killing literally massacring
01:05:08.160
christians and trump really doesn't like that so he had warned them that the bad guys that if they
01:05:16.320
kept killing christians he was going to respond militarily allegedly nigeria's government approved it
01:05:23.520
so it wasn't a violation of their sovereignty um but and we don't know how many people were bombed or
01:05:33.680
if it was missiles i'm pretty sure no american boots were on the ground and no american casualties don't
01:05:41.200
know that for sure but i'm sure we did from a distance anyway it makes me wonder under what authority
01:05:51.280
can trump order an attack on nigeria even if the government of nigeria says yes
01:06:02.080
what authority allows him to do that can he just tell the military to attack anybody he wants
01:06:10.160
now you know arguably there's a good rationale for it i'm not i'm not arguing that he shouldn't have done it
01:06:18.880
but how do you justify that legally i don't know i suspect the anti-war people will have something to
01:06:27.920
say about this next week and again i'm not opposed to it if there were no casualties on the american side
01:06:37.680
and it made a difference we don't we don't yet know if it made a difference but potentially might have
01:06:45.680
been a good play you know i've told you now quite a few times that when trump has options he always
01:06:54.880
picks the strongest one even if the war powers act even if it's not the optimal strategy that every time
01:07:04.400
he picks this the quote strong strategy that pays off because the next situation where he's negotiating
01:07:16.080
nobody will think he's bluffing you see what i'm saying as long as he always picks the strongest play
01:07:25.520
even if it's not the optimized play then every time he has to deal with somebody they're gonna say oh
01:07:32.000
damn it he's not bluffing if he says he's gonna bomb us he's definitely gonna bomb us
01:07:40.160
so even if he isn't so it's a real it's a real good play persuasion wise
01:07:47.520
the literally murdering priests i also don't know the scale of it obviously there's no amount that's
01:07:55.200
right there's there's no amount that's the right amount of killing christians but i do wonder what
01:08:01.760
is the scale i mean is are they killing 100 christians a day how bad is it
01:08:12.560
arguing about the legality is laughable yeah i would say i'm more curious than arguing about it
01:08:37.440
all right ladies and gentlemen that's all i have for you today
01:08:40.000
uh if you want to hang out for another minute i will be happy to sip my coffee and hang out with you
01:08:51.200
just because you might be lonely i know there are a few birthdays today how many of you have a birthday
01:08:58.160
today at least two of the locals people have a birthday but we've got uh what five thousand people
01:09:07.280
watching out of the five thousand people how many are how many are having your birthday today
01:09:58.480
oh it's a lonely day for you well that's why we're here you need not be lonely
01:10:06.720
because i'm here and all of your friends are here
01:10:15.760
well i don't know if that was a good show but it kept you busy for an hour
01:10:36.800
over 52 000 christians i've been wow well that's in africa in general that's all of africa not nigeria right
01:11:07.280
is your understanding that what oh you can't shut up
01:11:12.720
do i have a lot of close friends from school not from school because i don't live anywhere where my school was
01:11:29.920
but let me tell you this i am so blessed so blessed to have people that i trust completely in my life
01:11:42.720
because when you get in my situation you have to you have to trust
01:11:49.440
people to do what you need to be done and not take advantage of you and i have a i have a very high trust
01:12:16.320
sorry about that i know you said it doesn't bother you but it's not what i want for you
01:12:21.920
yeah no i had no problems on the holidays whatsoever
01:13:02.160
all right people i think we've done enough for today
01:13:11.200
so how about we say bye for now and i'll catch up with you tomorrow