Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3054 CWSA 12⧸26⧸25

00:00:00.000 everybody is the stock market open today

00:00:06.160 looks like it is check it out tesla down

00:00:14.320 bitcoin flat spider flat won't be much action today come on in we're almost ready for a show

00:00:27.360 happy friday

00:00:32.960 you're gonna love it

00:00:36.160 all right we'll get the locals comments going here

00:00:42.560 and then we'll do the ever popular simultaneous sip

00:00:53.360 i think my cat picture is especially good today

00:00:57.680 there we go

00:01:01.760 we're cooking now all right people come in come in come in

00:01:10.400 i wonder if some of you delay just skip the simultaneous sip

00:01:15.520 do you well it's gonna happen anyway because i know why you're here all you need is a copper mugger

00:01:25.280 glass to take your chelsea stein i can't even jugger flask a vessel of a kind fill it with your

00:01:31.680 favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine

00:01:38.320 change of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip it happens

00:01:44.800 well here's a special announcement there are still some dilbert calendars left but not many

00:02:01.200 so you know because i'm independently publishing now uh we had to guess how many to publish

00:02:09.920 i gotta tell you we guessed pretty well we made a good guess which means that we sold almost all of

00:02:16.960 them which means that if you know anybody wants one they better order it right away from amazon amazon's

00:02:24.720 the only place you can get it the dilbert 2026 calendar act now before they're all gone

00:02:31.520 i don't think we're gonna print more so get your get yours well apparently there's some enormous storm

00:02:44.880 coming or has already hit so a weird thing happened which is because christmas was on a thursday

00:02:53.440 a lot of people said okay uh friday we'll do you know the in-laws party and saturday on thursday

00:03:02.800 we'll do ours but some people moved it to saturday but now it looks like everything's gonna be snowed in

00:03:11.120 so the people who moved their party to saturday probably gonna move it to sunday

00:03:15.760 so people are gonna be celebrating thursday uh christmas on sunday just because the weird way that the

00:03:25.760 the date hit in the snow it's gonna feel weird celebrating christmas three days after christmas

00:03:36.400 all right well

00:03:40.000 i wouldn't say there's much news today but there's stuff to talk about

00:03:46.240 so if you lower your expectations and say to yourself you know what there's not much else on tv

00:03:54.800 or on social media so it's we're just gonna be hanging out

00:04:00.240 and i'll chatter about a few things that i find interesting that are in the news

00:04:08.560 where is that cursor there it is

00:04:10.240 so i saw in a mario an awful post that tesla is estimating that a full self-driving mode on their

00:04:20.560 cars could save 32 000 lives a year and avoid 1.9 million injuries did you have any idea

00:04:32.400 that uh that uh automobile accidents were causing 1.9 million injuries per year

00:04:41.600 the 32 000 i knew or the apparently 40 40 000 die

00:04:46.880 and car crashes that was in the range of what i i knew but wow a lot of people got injured

00:04:55.040 so the thinking is that uh full self-driving would cut down on injuries by 80 percent

00:05:05.680 i believe it

00:05:06.400 all right all right what else so here's a little obscure story that i'll bet most of you

00:05:16.960 have not been following it's about the 2020 election

00:05:20.880 and it's something that the rasmussen reports account has been hammering for like four years

00:05:30.720 so four or five years they've been posting on the same topic and here's the topic allegedly

00:05:39.680 uh and there's a part that's not legend but the part we know is that there was a locked warehouse

00:05:46.000 in fulton georgia in which allegedly there were a bunch of uh ballasts that got counted

00:05:54.480 that are sketchy now i don't remember why they were sketchy they were either all the same or i don't know

00:06:02.000 there was something about them that was presumed to be sketchy but nobody could check it out

00:06:09.600 because the room was locked and the a judge had been asked to you know force them to release it and

00:06:18.160 unlock it but the judge had not acted so years went by when rasmussen would report uh it seemed like once a

00:06:28.800 week well that that room is still locked now you might say to yourself well over all that time

00:06:37.040 if that room had anything in it that was controversial there would there would have been enough time to

00:06:44.080 you know change them out or steal them sort of like ford knocks so uh apparently the judge

00:06:53.040 robert mcburney who is being accused of being corrupt but i don't know about that

00:07:00.400 he finally approved access so some cynics are saying that he waited long enough that the statute of

00:07:09.680 limitations might be running out for whoever whoever did the alleged crimes that would be a crime of you

00:07:17.360 you know election drinking allegedly but i asked grok about that

00:07:27.760 that's weird somebody outside my house must be a package delivery

00:07:35.440 anyway um i asked grok about the statute of limitations

00:07:41.440 it says mostly mostly for election felonies would be seven years but because everything takes years

00:07:50.800 there might be a way for the bad guys again this is just speculation hypothesis

00:07:58.480 you know allegations the bad guys could somehow find another way to stall for another two years

00:08:06.720 and nobody would go to jail now i don't know if they can but in theory the reason that the uh

00:08:14.960 i guess it was the government some some element of the government of georgia

00:08:20.080 was blocking the release because they estimated it would cost 400 000 to unlock the door

00:08:32.160 now what does that mean i have no idea why would it cost the government 400 000 to unlock a door

00:08:40.720 presumably the unlocking of the door was linked with some kind of audit that i guess the government

00:08:53.280 would be involved in i don't really understand but given that the republicans would pay anything

00:09:01.520 to prove that the election was rigged especially trump i don't think it would be hard

00:09:06.640 for them to raise four hundred thousand dollars so it seems to be a fake reason that it would be too

00:09:14.720 expensive that must be just the excuse that reason so there is a non-zero chance and i wouldn't know

00:09:23.040 how to put an estimate on this but there's a non-zero chance that everything you suspected about the

00:09:29.040 election will be revealed really soon i'm not sure what i would think if it turned out all the elections

00:09:38.080 were perfectly legal because it doesn't make sense to me that if all the ballots were perfectly legal

00:09:48.480 and georgia wanted to prove that nothing was rigged they would have just unlocked the door 0.94

00:09:55.280 and they would have said well we're not going to pay for it but knock yourself out but they didn't do

00:10:00.720 that they pretended like they didn't have the budget to do it so that's really really sketchy

00:10:08.960 so we'll find out if there's still anything behind that door i don't know that it's been unlocked yet

00:10:15.200 but maybe in the coming week maybe they're waiting to get the 400 000 covered we'll find out don't you

00:10:28.480 believe that the arc of history um it's where they would don't you believe that the arc of history

00:10:39.840 is bending toward 100 confirmation that the election was rigged doesn't it feel like there's nothing

00:10:48.720 that can stop that from happening really all it took was republicans to have enough time and enough

00:10:56.480 you know enough influence that they could go look at the stuff they wanted to look at

00:11:01.200 but i will warn you that a tremendous amount of allegations about the election have not been proven

00:11:11.520 to be true so this this could very easily be you know disappointing but we'll find out

00:11:20.080 so here's a very little small story but newsmax is reporting that uh trump was asked somewhere

00:11:33.600 about the ai boom and the bubble and could could the ai boom damage the economy blah blah

00:11:41.040 and trump's answer was quote no i love ai according to the new york times now have you noticed

00:11:50.080 that trump has a very young brain i mean he's conservative in sort of a you know old school

00:11:58.320 conservative way but whenever there's something that's new tech um he's unusually

00:12:07.440 good at embracing it and ai is one of those things crypto is another one of those things

00:12:13.840 even when he got in trouble for talking about covet it's because he knew more than the doctors did

00:12:19.120 about light being a disinfectant and just the way he jokes about things he has a very young brain

00:12:29.680 and i've never seen that much experience paired with that much of a sort of a youthful

00:12:37.440 approach to the world and i'm wondering in this case um how much it made a difference

00:12:44.320 that he's got david sacks you know who would obviously you know make him comfortable with

00:12:51.200 crypto as well as ai and uh you know a bunch of other people from jared to um well you know

00:13:02.800 you could name a few so he's got a lot of young advisors but he actually listens to them and he's

00:13:08.960 clearly influenced by them so yeah he's he's very young brained

00:13:16.160 anyway will the will the robots take all our jobs 0.99

00:13:22.720 peter navarro one of trump's top trade advisors or maybe his top trade advisor he's urging workers to

00:13:31.520 consider going into the trades would that be a good answer for you to go into the trades like go out

00:13:41.840 and fix air conditioners and be a mechanic and be a plumber and all that i gotta say i'm pretty lucky

00:13:51.200 that i was born in a time when that wasn't something you had to do i would never be good at that

00:13:57.360 i would be good at sitting in a cubicle i would be good at typing things i'd be good at creativity

00:14:07.040 but i would never be good at fixing your ac so i'm glad i don't have to make that choice

00:14:14.720 however it made me wonder what the future looks like i'm going to make a prediction

00:14:19.680 prediction prediction number one i believe that in the same way that unions can make companies do

00:14:29.680 things they don't want to do right the a union can make a company do what it doesn't want to do

00:14:37.760 and that's probably true for you know influence over the government as well because if your union was

00:14:44.160 big enough uh it could influence voting so i believe there will be a robot union which is people not

00:14:57.360 robots so maybe i said that wrong let me say it a different way i believe there will form a new union

00:15:04.320 that might be a collection of existing unions or it might be a new one and their primary their primary

00:15:11.120 objective will be to make sure that you can't put a robot into the field as a worker unless you have

00:15:19.280 at least one human uh in charge on site had to be on site so have you ever had a plumber come to your

00:15:28.480 house and they start working and then they realize there's a part that they need so they have to stop

00:15:35.680 what they're doing go drive somewhere and get a part and come back uh and you've watched people doing

00:15:42.960 service work in your house and you know there's one person who might be doing demolition and dragging

00:15:50.720 stuff away and another person who's doing the carpentry or the hard stuff i see a world where a plumber

00:15:59.840 would have one or two robots that show up at the same time but the plumber would be in charge

00:16:06.480 and this new union i'm talking about would guarantee that even if you knew you could do it with just

00:16:12.400 robots it just wouldn't be legal you just it wouldn't happen so and even if you had your own robot

00:16:21.280 the law could be so gamed that you wouldn't be you wouldn't be allowed to use your own robot

00:16:27.920 even to do some plumbing at your own house so i think that the laws and as well as the unions

00:16:38.960 will conspire to keep people employed even if that's not the best idea but can't you just imagine

00:16:47.360 this all right close your eyes and imagine the robots and the one guy the plumber let's just say

00:16:56.240 plumber the plumber shows up and he's got two robot assistants and he says one of the robots to get a

00:17:04.800 part that robot is a self-driving car literally goes down to the uh you know hardware store picks up the

00:17:14.320 part and if you're not sure it can send you a picture so you know it's picking up the right thing

00:17:21.360 pays for it with some kind of digital payment drives back meanwhile the other robot has identified where the

00:17:28.960 leak is just by putting this row by hand on the wall and it can identify where the leak is and then

00:17:35.840 when it finds it it needs to maybe take down a piece of the wall so the the human plumber says all right

00:17:43.440 robot uh take out this part of the the she rock and the robot goes and then you can see the leak

00:17:56.880 and then the the plumber says all right i'm going to need some plumber's tape i'm going to need this

00:18:02.160 and i'm going to need this tool and even before he's done talking his robot assistant is already

00:18:08.480 going to the toolbox and has those exact things now maybe the robot would do the work of you know

00:18:16.880 wrapping up things and fixing things with the supervision of the human or maybe before we get

00:18:23.840 to that point the human still does the work because it's maybe it's just slightly outside of what the

00:18:31.040 robots can do but the robots are learning like an apprentice so on day one you get a cheap robot

00:18:39.840 that can only fetch and maybe do some demo stuff and maybe get some tools but as you do work the robot

00:18:49.760 learns the same way an apprentice would so your robot would become more and more valuable every time

00:18:56.880 they'd accompany you on a plumber trip so that's what i think but give me some feedback on that do you

00:19:05.200 think that's reasonable so the things i'm predicting are that the unions and the laws will guarantee the

00:19:14.800 after you have a human if a robot's doing some physical work do you agree with that part

00:19:20.720 at least for you know the predictable future

00:19:28.560 i think so and

00:19:33.760 that would just make your your plumbers more effective all right how many jobs do you know

00:19:41.600 where you ask for some service person to come to your house and you can't get them there in a week

00:19:47.280 a lot right are there not a lot of situations where you want a service but they're booked up so you

00:19:56.000 can't get to them for a week well if you add the robots maybe it's the same workers but they can do

00:20:04.480 three jobs a day instead of two so suddenly suddenly your your human plumber is making twice as much money

00:20:14.560 or not twice as much let's say 15 more

00:20:21.680 all right you agree

00:20:26.880 so um there's another ai company that's being skeptical about the robots let's see if i can find that story

00:20:36.560 maybe maybe i didn't write that down but

00:20:45.680 all right here's a story so i think this was in the wall street journal

00:20:49.840 today that the headline is even the companies making humanoid robots think they're overhyped

00:20:56.000 so you know what i've been saying for forever so i believe i was ahead of the curve is that if robots

00:21:05.840 could do more than one thing they would already be deployed but we keep seeing these demos where the

00:21:14.560 robot is trained to do exactly one thing like iron a shirt but that skill does not it doesn't go to

00:21:22.240 anything else you can't you can't just give it an ai brain today and have it figure out stuff you would

00:21:30.480 have to specifically train it for every little task so that's why you do see robots in warehouses

00:21:38.800 because a warehouse is a very limited training set uh if you get this command go get this box

00:21:48.000 you know carry this box over here and put it there so it's such a small domain that a robot could work

00:21:57.040 in a warehouse but i've been saying for a while if you if you have any experience with the large

00:22:04.160 language model ais which are the dominant part that they don't really have any hope of becoming general

00:22:12.480 intelligence there's nothing that they're doing the ai the ai industry i don't believe there's anything

00:22:20.400 they're doing that could logically lead to a general intelligence robot

00:22:28.080 and and i think that some of the experts are saying it too you know now that they've all been overfunded

00:22:34.000 they can tell the truth but there's this one guy i guess he's uh head of a ai company called

00:22:45.440 i don't know his name is a velika booty and he's skeptical so he says the same thing i do that you can

00:22:52.480 train them to do warehouse tasks but did you know that for every hundred dollars you would spend on a robot

00:23:00.560 um only about 20 dollars of that as a robot and the rest of the rest of the money is for protecting

00:23:10.400 humans from the robots now i think that means physically so that the robot doesn't you know

00:23:16.960 accidentally run you over or something so here's my question um elon musk is very pro-robot

00:23:26.640 and i wonder what does he know that the other top people in the industry don't know now it's always

00:23:37.360 a bad idea to bet against musk when he's making a prediction of the future you know he might be off

00:23:44.320 by timing but it's a bad idea to bet against him he very clearly believes that that the optimist robots

00:23:53.840 robots will be general purpose robots and uh apparently his version of ai is way ahead of

00:24:03.200 the other ais but is he way ahead in a way that would give us general intelligence

00:24:11.200 or is he just way ahead in the way that we can never get general intelligence you know maybe his

00:24:16.560 will hallucinate less or something but what does he know is he going about it in a completely different

00:24:23.280 way now i know that he trained his cars with video but again that's that's a limited domain so as as

00:24:35.920 varied as the possibilities are for a car i mean there's a a trillion different things that a car could

00:24:43.840 have to do you could probably get to a trillion so you can i think you could train a car

00:24:51.040 on a trillion different possibilities and then it would be better than human but it would still be

00:24:57.200 trained for a narrow domain which is driving safely so i get how we can uh get to self-driving cars

00:25:08.240 that that makes total sense you just train them with video instead of language

00:25:13.440 but how do you get to a butler how would you ever get to a butler where there's something new every

00:25:23.520 day that is never seen what does he know that we don't know do does his ai have a like a secret um like

00:25:36.080 a skunk works that nobody knows about that's getting close to it and i've said this before but it's

00:25:43.280 a really good tip if you think that you'll have a robot butler in one year you would already see it

00:25:53.760 right because i can't believe that uh that the robots would be launching in one year

00:26:01.760 and they didn't know how to do it yet does that even make sense you know what do you think there's

00:26:10.080 any possibility that a big serious you know high functioning company would say oh yeah in a year

00:26:16.880 we'll have robot butlers but we have no idea how to do it at the moment no big company would do that

00:26:24.960 you know not tesla not anybody so if you're not hearing today that they have one in the lab that

00:26:32.880 has general intelligence and you're not i don't believe there's going to be one in a year

00:26:40.640 i do not believe so i want to be wrong

00:26:47.040 i want to be wrong how many of you agree with my assessment

00:26:52.240 that if they can't do it today it's not going to be a product in one year would you agree with that

00:27:07.520 well once again unless i guess i have to say it one more time um in a sense i'm betting against

00:27:16.480 ceylon musk's prediction but what he knows about this topic is you know a thousand times more than

00:27:22.880 i know so does he know more than i know or is he just being is it just wishful thinking and my guess

00:27:31.040 is he knows more than i know so therefore oh i guess i should um i should reveal this every once in a

00:27:39.280 while i do own tesla stock so i want it to work and i desperately want elon to be right and me to be

00:27:48.240 wrong and i literally have my money bet i actually bet my money against myself i bet my money on elon

00:27:56.560 instead of myself which probably isn't a good bet all right enough about that

00:28:04.960 i'm just going back to the front here

00:28:15.280 so if any of you had the experience that ai has already ruined your youtube experience

00:28:24.320 apparently there's a way to fix that by blocking the videos that

00:28:29.200 we're downloading them somehow and then youtube will learn what to not give you ai slop

00:28:35.760 so ai slop if you haven't heard that term is ai content that is sort of impressive

00:28:44.080 but not really something you want to see too often so that's called slop so when i go to youtube

00:28:52.400 let's say two or three years ago if i went to youtube and i saw a topic that i was interested in

00:29:00.240 it was made by humans and it would keep me interested for you know an hour but today if i see something

00:29:08.800 that interests me um it's almost always slop and it'll be this you know this boring robot voice

00:29:20.000 and the andes is a mountain range and it's just sort of repetitive and not interesting and blah 0.71

00:29:28.880 and and there's so much of the ai crap that searching through it to find something that's not ai

00:29:36.080 is just too much work so that's one of the reasons that i just stopped watching youtube mostly not

00:29:43.760 completely and i do videos on x because if you go to x you go to the side menu on your app

00:29:53.520 one of the options now is video and what they do really well is they only feed you video

00:29:59.760 that the algorithm thinks you would be interested in so that's not ai

00:30:04.160 so i will catch up on all kinds of politics and technology and ai stuff and tesla stuff

00:30:15.600 and i don't have to do anything i just hit the button once it just goes from video to video and

00:30:21.760 i can listen to it all day so youtube's got a problem

00:30:29.040 anyway um

00:30:33.280 let's talk about the mar-a-lago raid i know that's old news but mike davis has an article

00:30:39.280 about it in fox news so here are some of the things to just summarize

00:30:44.480 the whole mar-a-lago raid for the the classified documents um did you know that the fbi agents

00:30:55.200 allegedly lacked probable cause which would be sort of a crime so i think what is something that we

00:31:03.760 learned from the uh now released files somehow we learned this is that the fbi said they didn't know

00:31:11.120 what the uh didn't know what the probable cause was which would make it completely illegal to do a

00:31:19.360 that kind of a raid but they were allegedly uh pressed by the biden administration to do it anyway

00:31:29.200 now i think they're still in the allegedly category but getting closer to fact

00:31:33.440 uh secondly and this part i don't i'm not convinced about this but some say that the real reason for

00:31:43.920 the raid was that trump had some uh records about operation crossfire hurricane which would implicate

00:31:53.360 the old obama and brennan people and so they were trying to really get that so it looked like it was

00:32:00.960 about classified information but really it was about making sure that trump did not have documents that

00:32:07.600 would incriminate democrats do you believe that that is just that is just slightly too far into conspiracy

00:32:19.120 theory for me very possible i wouldn't rule it out but i say i don't believe there are any documents that

00:32:30.080 show that are there have there have there been any whistleblowers who said the real reason is because

00:32:36.560 those crossfire hurricane documents by now there would be a whistleblower right and i don't believe

00:32:44.800 we've seen one so i'm going to say maybe all right and then there's some issue about the judge

00:32:52.240 who was not very uh not very neutral and i guess i did the bad guys the democrats did some uh judge

00:33:02.160 shopping and i found this guy uh judge bruce reinhart of the southern district of florida

00:33:09.520 so he's the one who signed a warrant but just six weeks earlier he had recused himself from some

00:33:16.240 trump clinton lawsuit and the reason was that he had as a civilian in 2017 he had written a facebook post

00:33:24.480 viciously bashing trump so the department of justice apparently found the the one person you could

00:33:34.480 guarantee was anti-trump that's the guy that signed the warrant now again judge shopping is not illegal right

00:33:46.240 as far as i know it's not illegal it's just not ideal so

00:33:58.800 we'll keep an eye on that so russell brand has been charged with new allegations of rape

00:34:05.760 and sexual assault raybar news is reporting i think i told you that when

00:34:11.600 russell brand was originally accused of those things several years ago i guess um that i happened to be

00:34:19.920 booked for a show so i went on his show while he was right in the middle of all the accusations

00:34:28.400 and he was losing everything as he was being demonetized and let me tell you i thought my interview

00:34:35.520 with him was gonna be a lot of fun but he was not really in the mood he was not in the mood to have

00:34:42.320 a lot of fun and i completely understand that but he's being hit again with new new charges

00:34:50.560 um and i don't have an opinion about who did what or who's guilty of what i will give this you this

00:34:57.520 context that i think is useful every time this kind of a story comes up and the context goes like this

00:35:05.840 pretty much every rich and powerful um man is is accused falsely of sex crimes

00:35:16.960 pretty much all of them so if you've got somebody of his um his notoriety especially if he's known to be a

00:35:25.920 sex addict especially if he's seemed to be siding with one part of the political aisle

00:35:33.600 the odds of him having a false accusation were a hundred percent now that does not mean

00:35:42.560 that these allegations are false it only means that you should not judge it

00:35:47.520 by the fact that they exist because there was a hundred percent chance that someone like him would

00:35:55.040 be falsely accused even if there were any real things he ever did so that that's the only thing

00:36:03.280 i'm going to add to the story and trust me you could talk to any if you privately talk to any let's say rich

00:36:11.680 ceo i'll bet you every one of them would say yeah you know my secretary

00:36:17.600 or you have some employee accused me and often it's people you never met because i told i told you i've

00:36:24.880 been accused of sexual abuse by someone who lives in canada i've never met

00:36:31.120 right so they called the people i worked with and the one moment that the the crazy woman she called 1.00

00:36:39.440 the people i worked with the people in my restaurant where they owned the restaurant 0.90

00:36:43.600 and told them that i was a terrible rapist and that on a regular basis i would travel to canada 0.97

00:36:50.160 and rifle through her possessions and then sexually abused her 0.99

00:36:56.000 now i promise you this is nobody i've ever met this is pure crazy woman but the people who received the 0.96

00:37:02.880 call how do they know how would they know if that's real or not so that's that is the world of high

00:37:12.400 profile people but this makes me ask the following question how did we go from an environment of me too

00:37:22.000 every single day to it doesn't really get in the news much did something change is it possible that the

00:37:32.480 the ceos have learned you know just don't do anything that would get you in trouble

00:37:38.640 is it possible that the mike pence rule where you just don't allow yourself to be alone with a woman

00:37:44.320 uh are many are ceos doing that because i have to admit uh um when i first heard the mike pence rule

00:37:55.280 that he would not go to lunch for example even a business lunch you wouldn't even do a business lunch

00:38:01.440 with a woman by herself unless he brought his wife and i think we all laughed at that right 0.93

00:38:07.760 ha ha ha you know old mike pence you know it's mike pence don't live in the past you know women are 1.00

00:38:16.000 part of the workforce you know if they want to go to lunch for business should be exactly like a man 0.83

00:38:23.360 and it didn't take me long to realize he was a smart one so i don't know what is it you know maybe

00:38:32.400 he was probably religious and partly being faithful to his wife but man that is a good way to protect 0.99

00:38:39.200 yourself you just don't ever allow yourself to be alone with somebody who might accuse you

00:38:48.960 that's not a bad rule so could it be that so many people kind of took that to heart

00:38:57.680 that the rate of me tooing went way down maybe or was it never real and it was always a sort of a

00:39:07.440 news related thing let me say a different way maybe the rate of me tooing has always been the same

00:39:16.800 but when it was in the news uh the people who were the victims of the me tooing were far more likely to

00:39:24.320 pursue it but once it falls out of the news then maybe they feel you know there'll be retaliation or

00:39:32.480 you know they'd rather just move on with their life so is it my imagination so give me give me a

00:39:40.320 comment here is it my imagination or is it real that the me tooing thing was just every day

00:39:48.080 but now it's just sort of shrunk and you don't really hear i mean you still hear about it but it's

00:39:56.000 like way less what would that be why do you think that would be if it's true that we're hearing about

00:40:05.440 less well i guess some new york times reporter is suing the big ai companies in this case

00:40:14.720 this would include x so google x open ai they're suing over chatbot training so i guess they're

00:40:25.120 worried that the chatbots read their books without permission and got trained on them and they think

00:40:31.600 that's some kind of a copyright violation now you've heard this before it's sort of an old story that

00:40:39.840 authors but i guess they're not doing a class action in this case which has some extra risk for the ai

00:40:47.840 companies allegedly so i ask it i ask ai about my books and it generally it knows well here's what it

00:41:01.680 pretends to know if i ask ai you know what's on page whatever of my book it can't do it so it's not

00:41:10.720 trained that well if i ask it to summarize my book it can do it but it takes a summary from other people's

00:41:20.960 comments about the book so it is legal for the ai to look at public comments like a review of the book or

00:41:30.800 what somebody said about it on social media for example and usually they that's enough to piece

00:41:36.000 together what the book was about so in a sense ai at least in my case uh finds a workaround

00:41:45.360 that doesn't look like a copyright violation to me because there's there's no problem quoting a

00:41:52.240 reviewer or something so i asked uh gemini today um if it was true that uh john bogle who is the famous

00:42:05.680 vanguard index fund guy is it true that he wants to use my financial advice in his book because i was

00:42:15.360 wondering you know who i have influence and according to gemini um it could tell me the page number and

00:42:23.360 the book and i think it was year 2010 that his book took my nine page personal finance advice and he just

00:42:32.560 included it in the book because he thought it was so well done it was really well done um

00:42:39.120 um and that was i think mostly right but when he said it could give me the page number i'll bet that

00:42:48.080 was a hallucination so i don't know i've not i cannot confirm that his book included my financial advice

00:42:57.920 i can confirm that a few people asked for permission to reprint that

00:43:03.600 so whether he did or not i don't know anyway um did you know that i have i've had an influence on

00:43:14.400 personal finance how many of you knew that that's one of the weird areas that i had an influence you

00:43:24.880 know how i've told you that one of the ways to be influential is to be the person who writes it down

00:43:31.520 whatever it is if you write it down you become influential if you do a good job of writing it down

00:43:40.400 so because i'm a cartoonist and i'm really good at summarizing i found a way to write down all the

00:43:47.520 advice you would ever need for personal finance in just nine bullet points and so the breakthrough was

00:43:55.680 not that i knew more than anybody else the breakthrough is that i figured out how to do

00:44:01.200 it in nine bullet points that would be in the order this is the key part there would be in the order

00:44:07.280 that you should do them nobody did that before everybody else just said this is a good idea this

00:44:13.360 is a bad idea good idea bad idea but it was overwhelming so i get rid of the overwhelming part

00:44:20.960 by just saying if you don't know anything else do this i think number one was make a will if you have

00:44:28.880 if you have uh people you're trying to take care of

00:44:34.320 but of course you should do that first why would you leave yourself exposed so i don't know if ai got that

00:44:43.520 right well jasmine crockett your favorite democrat yes i said democrat she she's got a new technique 0.82

00:44:57.360 that is so

00:45:01.360 it's so bad that it's almost good so she was asked uh breitbart news was reporting this so in some

00:45:07.840 interview recently um she was asked if she accepts the idea that the current administration has vastly

00:45:17.520 reduced illegal border crossings now would you agree that one of the most obviously documented

00:45:26.640 total facts is that the trump administration has in fact reduced the number of illegal border crossings

00:45:35.120 now how could she possibly say that that didn't happen

00:45:46.960 uh

00:45:50.400 okay i'll get back to that

00:45:54.560 well here's what she did so she didn't want to give credit

00:45:57.840 for what is an immense account accomplishment so instead she said but we know that this administration

00:46:07.680 has not been the most honest when it comes to reporting numbers

00:46:12.320 so instead of saying yes obviously they stopped border crossings she questioned whether the data was accurate

00:46:19.520 uh oh my god i i hate it and i love it at the same time it's so bold that you would even go that direction

00:46:31.520 but if you assume that the public isn't really following things closely she says well you know they

00:46:39.200 they cheated on the jobs numbers i don't know if that's true but she said the jobs numbers were fake

00:46:44.800 so if the job numbers were fake could it also be true that the border numbers were fake no

00:46:54.400 because we would definitely notice that the border numbers were fake

00:46:58.400 if the border was exactly the way it had been you don't think we would have noticed

00:47:04.080 it's harder to notice unemployment or employment you know especially if you're talking one or two percent

00:47:11.280 but it's not hard to notice that the border is wide open or totally closed but the the husba

00:47:20.320 of even saying that it might be a data reporting problem by the administration that's pretty bold

00:47:32.160 so apparently there's a giant tanker oil tanker that

00:47:36.960 uh is one of these shadow fleet trying to illegally move oil from venezuela and so the coast guard started

00:47:47.520 chasing it down and instead of surrendering which you would expect them to do because they're literally

00:47:55.600 up against the military so instead of surrendering they decided to do a u-turn and make a run for it

00:48:02.240 now obviously they're not going to outrun the coast guard so there's a little bit of a mystery as to why

00:48:09.840 they haven't surrendered because the the staff of the of the uh the vessel they're not military

00:48:18.800 you know they're just underpaid seamen so to speak so why would they even take a chance it's not their oil

00:48:26.960 you know i mean i suppose there's some risk of penalty to them if they give it up but then

00:48:34.400 what do they think they think they're going to outrun the coast guard

00:48:38.800 so part of the story wall street journal is reporting on this is that the u.s is just waiting to

00:48:46.880 bring some more military assets in so they can do a proper military takeover of the boat

00:48:53.360 if they don't voluntarily surrender it looks like they're not so did you know that there's such a

00:49:01.120 thing as a maritime special response team so apparently the u.s military has a group

00:49:08.480 who are specially trained in elite force for boarding hostile ships and i guess what they do is they bring

00:49:16.080 in a bunch of helicopters and that you know the helicopters keep everybody busy then the special

00:49:23.120 elite team they rappel down presumably i i don't think the helicopter lands i think they probably

00:49:30.400 rappel down and then they use their superior weaponry to make it to the bridge and then basically take

00:49:38.960 over and then there's some speculation that they're looking for a captain who would know how to run the boat

00:49:44.960 after the ship after they take the ship after they take it over because it's it's not that common

00:49:51.840 to know how to operate that kind of a ship so it might be hard to find somebody who's willing to

00:49:58.800 you know be the be the new captain

00:50:03.840 would they be seals i don't know maybe there would be a subset of seals

00:50:08.880 but the seals were not mentioned in this story anyway as part of that story i keep hearing is said that

00:50:21.360 if the venezuelan oil shipments are shut down or even seriously degraded that it will collapse the

00:50:28.800 economy of cuba because cuba is already a basket case and it depends on cheap venezuelan oil

00:50:36.480 so if the cheap venezuelan oil gets cut off or or seriously degraded some people say oh the cuban

00:50:46.000 economy will collapse to which i say there's never been a time in my life when the cuban economy was not

00:50:54.560 on the border of collapse do you believe that they're going to collapse every time we hear this

00:51:01.840 things don't collapse release down completely so it seems like there's always a work around for

00:51:09.920 everything

00:51:15.600 but the thing i still don't know is if the trump administration thinks they're getting a twofer

00:51:22.320 and that they're going to find a way to do regime change in cuba the hard way

00:51:30.480 just indirectly by putting pressure on their their sponsor don't know

00:51:38.800 all right

00:51:42.000 according to politico the u.s immigration customs enforcement people that we know as ice

00:51:49.520 are buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of surveillance tools

00:51:58.240 so that they can find the uh the non-legal residents so that would include uh let's see social social

00:52:07.280 media monitoring tools facial recognition software license plate readers and services to find people

00:52:15.520 where people live and work so let me take you back to something i've been predicting for 10 years

00:52:26.720 if you think you can protect your privacy you can't your privacy was always going to disappear

00:52:37.280 and it wouldn't matter who's in charge and the reason i say that is that the utility

00:52:42.320 of taking your privacy away is just too high so the government whoever the government is is going to

00:52:50.080 say you know you know we really need to you know we really need to uh do this for the illegals

00:52:59.200 then the next thing you know you're going to say well we have all these tools

00:53:04.640 you know why don't we also sell it to the police force

00:53:06.960 and i don't think it will ever matter if the democrats or the republicans are in charge

00:53:14.000 i think in every scenario just the usefulness of taking away your privacy for law and order

00:53:23.600 will be so high that you don't have a chance it will just disappear and i'm not saying that's a good

00:53:31.600 idea i'm just saying it's inevitable so you know if you're worried about it happening

00:53:39.760 maybe what you should worry about is not doing anything that can be discovered that you would

00:53:44.720 want to be discovered because a full lack of privacy is just guaranteed in the future

00:53:53.040 i mean that's before you have a robot in your house

00:53:55.280 how much privacy you can have with a robot in your house all right let me ask you this let's say

00:54:03.120 you've got a an optimist robot and the police say if we can get that robot to spy on you that we can

00:54:14.000 find out you know if you're doing anything bad would elon musk say nope even though you have a warrant

00:54:22.880 i will not i will not turn on the ability to monitor people through the robot which would be

00:54:30.960 presumably not that hard but even elon musk can't defy the department of justice

00:54:39.280 so if the department of justice says oh yeah this is a totally legitimate use of a warrant you've got

00:54:47.360 a robot we can listen through the robot we are ordering you to make that robot a spy would he do it

00:54:58.880 i don't know that he would have a choice i think he would go to jail if he didn't do it

00:55:03.280 so yeah as soon as there's a robot in every house you'd better not break any laws

00:55:14.560 all right

00:55:17.520 surprisingly there's a report that uh zelensky is going to meet at mar-a-lago on sunday to try to

00:55:25.840 reach an agreement now that surprises me because the most recent comment from the russian envoys

00:55:33.680 was that they're not they didn't make any progress recently and they're not close to a deal but there

00:55:40.400 are some hints that they might be close to a deal one of the hints is that trump probably wouldn't take

00:55:46.800 the meeting unless he thought it was close enough that he could push it over the edge now he's an

00:55:52.880 optimist so just because he thinks they might be close that doesn't mean they're close

00:55:58.800 but it's worth a try so remember he's got uh you know kushner and wick off working on this

00:56:07.040 and they're very good at what they do so maybe we're gonna we're in for a surprise but according to

00:56:16.160 axios here are some of the things that are the the biggest sticking points and why we might be closer

00:56:23.200 to a deal than we think one is that ukraine needed security guarantees and apparently the u.s is willing

00:56:32.640 to put some legislation through congress that would give them security guarantees without nato

00:56:41.120 now what would that look like what exactly would a u.s security guarantee be unless it meant we would

00:56:51.120 put boots on the ground if russia got adventurous well i don't know but one of the things it could be

00:56:59.680 is an open-ended you know we will respond but that what we would plan to do is give the ukrainians the

00:57:07.920 good weapons that we've never given them before so suppose we said uh here's the deal russia we have

00:57:16.640 held back our best weapons because it would look like we're part of the war if we give it the good stuff

00:57:25.120 but if we give them a security guarantee and you move on them militarily we will instantly take the

00:57:34.320 controls off and they can have everything except our nuclear weapons so suddenly you will not be facing 0.54

00:57:43.760 ukrainian weapons you'll be facing the most optimized american weapons if you look at what companies like

00:57:51.440 and drill are doing to make our weapons smarter cheaper that would be quite a threat and it would

00:57:58.800 not guarantee that there would be any boots on the ground but it could be quite a good quite a good

00:58:04.960 incentive for russia to stay away so i'm just speculating that there is a way to create a security guarantee

00:58:13.360 that would be um that would be sensible i wasn't sure there would be

00:58:22.160 um and that if russia responds military there would also be sanctions of course

00:58:28.640 and maybe the sanctions would be worse if they could be worse

00:58:31.440 um then the other thing that uh russia wants is it wants complete control over the donbass

00:58:43.440 so it sounds like they're not flexible on control of the donbass which would require i think ukraine to

00:58:52.240 actually pull out of some part of the donbass that they have not yet lost and russia would have control 0.73

00:58:59.280 over what they already have plus a little extra now here's what the u.s seems to have counter-proposed

00:59:10.480 since the word that's being used is control is it possible that you can find a hybrid situation

00:59:19.040 where russia feels like it has enough control to be let's say safe from a military build up there

00:59:27.440 or safe from something bad happening but that uh i guess uh i guess wickhoff and jared kushner have

00:59:36.880 suggested that they turn that into the donbass into a free economic zone so that you reframe it

00:59:45.840 and i like this part you reframe the donbass from a military zone to an economic zone

00:59:52.080 and you say how about we make this the one place that you could make some money and there's not going

00:59:59.840 to be any war if that works for you it works for us we don't need to put any missiles there

01:00:05.440 you don't need to attack it but you could have something like control

01:00:13.440 do you think there's any hybrid situation in which russia would say all right

01:00:18.400 that's enough control because we're worried about security we're worried about

01:00:23.760 the u.s putting some missiles there and we would agree not to maybe maybe i think there might be

01:00:31.120 something there and let's see um and apparently there's some issue about a ceasefire because russia

01:00:43.920 doesn't want to do a ceasefire until they have a deal but ukraine is saying we can't have a deal

01:00:52.560 because of our laws unless we have a referendum and the referendum ended in voting to give up that

01:01:01.440 control of the donbass but it looks like the russians understand that if the if the referendum is the

01:01:08.960 only way to get there and the only way that referendum is with a ceasefire that might be

01:01:16.320 negotiable so maybe that's something that they would cave on

01:01:22.640 so anyway i'm just speculating that it's possible i'd probably still bet against it but it's possible

01:01:30.480 that they're close to a deal and then i saw in where did i see this in the amuse account on x

01:01:41.200 pointed out i don't know what the source of this is but amuse is good on sources

01:01:45.760 that the european union has committed to this blows my mind that the european union

01:01:52.320 has deals to buy russian energy through 2027 so that would be that would imply that russia could

01:02:02.160 continue affording the war for at least two more years so it's possible that russia you know might

01:02:11.840 want to make a deal but maybe they could wait another two years and see if they get more control

01:02:17.360 over the donbass if they don't care about the casualties so it just blows my mind that europe 0.89

01:02:24.160 is still you know attached to uh russian oil then um apparently there's some people in the

01:02:34.800 administration who think that if we make peace with russia that would be a four-way peace you know

01:02:42.880 europe u.s ukraine russia if we could make peace that russia has such unlimited natural resources

01:02:52.880 that everybody can make a ton of money but the counter to that is that the entire economy of russia

01:03:02.160 is about the size of italy italy's economy and it's sort of shrinking they've got a demographic problem

01:03:10.240 but the biggest problem that russia has is that if you're a legitimate business person from the west

01:03:17.840 and you built a company that made money in russia the russians would steal it they would literally

01:03:25.440 just steal your company because russia is basically a criminal organization pretending to be a country 0.96

01:03:32.800 so do you think it's and they don't have that many resources that are they're unique so the thinking is

01:03:41.280 that if you thought russia was this gold mine of natural resources well it does have some natural

01:03:49.440 resources but it's not essential to run the world uh and it's so risky to do any kind of business in

01:03:59.280 russia that you'd be crazy to try so one question is can we really sell the idea that doing business with

01:04:11.840 russia is good for them and good for us i can see why it would be good for them because if if an american

01:04:19.120 company comes in and you know let's say you know builds this really successful energy enterprise

01:04:26.320 working with the russians the russians would steal it they would nationalize it they would jail the ceo

01:04:34.640 they would just steal it so we'll see if uh we'll see if that's even a path they can take hey everybody

01:04:46.320 makes money we'll see well over christmas if you weren't paying attention uh the u.s launched strikes 0.63

01:04:57.920 on the islamic state targets in nigeria apparently nigerian isis has been killing literally massacring

01:05:08.160 christians and trump really doesn't like that so he had warned them that the bad guys that if they 0.78

01:05:16.320 kept killing christians he was going to respond militarily allegedly nigeria's government approved it 0.89

01:05:23.520 so it wasn't a violation of their sovereignty um but and we don't know how many people were bombed or

01:05:33.680 if it was missiles i'm pretty sure no american boots were on the ground and no american casualties don't

01:05:41.200 know that for sure but i'm sure we did from a distance anyway it makes me wonder under what authority

01:05:51.280 can trump order an attack on nigeria even if the government of nigeria says yes

01:06:02.080 what authority allows him to do that can he just tell the military to attack anybody he wants

01:06:10.160 now you know arguably there's a good rationale for it i'm not i'm not arguing that he shouldn't have done it

01:06:18.880 but how do you justify that legally i don't know i suspect the anti-war people will have something to

01:06:27.920 say about this next week and again i'm not opposed to it if there were no casualties on the american side

01:06:37.680 and it made a difference we don't we don't yet know if it made a difference but potentially might have

01:06:45.680 been a good play you know i've told you now quite a few times that when trump has options he always

01:06:54.880 picks the strongest one even if the war powers act even if it's not the optimal strategy that every time

01:07:04.400 he picks this the quote strong strategy that pays off because the next situation where he's negotiating

01:07:16.080 nobody will think he's bluffing you see what i'm saying as long as he always picks the strongest play

01:07:25.520 even if it's not the optimized play then every time he has to deal with somebody they're gonna say oh 0.89

01:07:32.000 damn it he's not bluffing if he says he's gonna bomb us he's definitely gonna bomb us

01:07:40.160 so even if he isn't so it's a real it's a real good play persuasion wise 0.99

01:07:47.520 the literally murdering priests i also don't know the scale of it obviously there's no amount that's

01:07:55.200 right there's there's no amount that's the right amount of killing christians but i do wonder what

01:08:01.760 is the scale i mean is are they killing 100 christians a day how bad is it

01:08:12.560 arguing about the legality is laughable yeah i would say i'm more curious than arguing about it

01:08:20.640 uh i wouldn't say i'm arguing about it

01:08:32.000 all right pull our investments

01:08:37.440 all right ladies and gentlemen that's all i have for you today

01:08:40.000 uh if you want to hang out for another minute i will be happy to sip my coffee and hang out with you

01:08:51.200 just because you might be lonely i know there are a few birthdays today how many of you have a birthday

01:08:58.160 today at least two of the locals people have a birthday but we've got uh what five thousand people

01:09:07.280 watching out of the five thousand people how many are how many are having your birthday today

01:09:14.880 i'll bet it's quite a few so there you go deb

01:09:21.680 happy birthday to all the birthday people

01:09:23.760 your brother does

01:09:35.200 all right

01:09:38.720 did anybody get a pet for christmas

01:09:43.200 did anybody get like a kitten or a puppy

01:09:45.760 if you did i want to see a picture of it

01:09:58.480 oh it's a lonely day for you well that's why we're here you need not be lonely

01:10:06.720 because i'm here and all of your friends are here

01:10:12.000 i'd like to see a robot do this

01:10:15.760 well i don't know if that was a good show but it kept you busy for an hour 0.93

01:10:29.920 sex kittens yeah they count

01:10:35.600 you wish you got a puppy 0.75

01:10:36.800 over 52 000 christians i've been wow well that's in africa in general that's all of africa not nigeria right

01:10:50.240 that's a lot

01:10:52.320 52 000 christians

01:10:53.840 yeah no medical advice please

01:11:07.280 is your understanding that what oh you can't shut up

01:11:12.720 do i have a lot of close friends from school not from school because i don't live anywhere where my school was

01:11:29.920 but let me tell you this i am so blessed so blessed to have people that i trust completely in my life

01:11:42.720 because when you get in my situation you have to you have to trust

01:11:49.440 people to do what you need to be done and not take advantage of you and i have a i have a very high trust

01:11:56.000 trust social situation very high trust

01:12:01.920 and that is quite a quite a relief

01:12:05.680 you're always alone on the holidays huh

01:12:16.320 sorry about that i know you said it doesn't bother you but it's not what i want for you

01:12:21.920 yeah no i had no problems on the holidays whatsoever

01:12:35.120 you reap what you sow

01:12:38.320 true enough

01:12:38.960 no don't send gifts to my caretakers

01:12:51.280 but thanks for offering

01:13:00.160 oh you're enjoying your son being home

01:13:02.160 all right people i think we've done enough for today

01:13:11.200 so how about we say bye for now and i'll catch up with you tomorrow

01:13:22.080 bye for now

01:13:25.760 where's my cursor

01:13:32.160 sorry

01:13:41.840 where's my cursor

01:13:43.040 where's my cursor

01:13:46.480 where's my cursor

01:13:48.880 next

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Real Coffee with Scott Adams - December 26, 2025

Episode 3054 CWSA 12⧸26⧸25

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