Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3055 CWSA 12⧸27⧸25

00:00:00.720 what just happened good morning everybody i'm here we're back

00:00:12.720 come on in we've got a slow news day so we're gonna have to make the most of it but you know we can

00:00:21.440 we got funny news stories we've got reframes we've got drama we've got trouble it's gonna be awesome

00:00:40.000 so uh i'll remind you i guess that's the wrong word because i haven't told you yet

00:00:46.800 but it's saturday and uh there will be a spaces event uh hosted by owen gregorian immediately

00:00:57.920 ish after this podcast so if you didn't get enough of what i'm going to give you you can go get a little

00:01:07.280 extra so spaces is the audio feature with an x if you're not on the x platform you probably should

00:01:16.480 be because it's got a lot of good stuff all right people people you know what we should do

00:01:30.320 the simultaneous sip that's probably why you're here and all you need for that is a copper mugger

00:01:38.400 a glass of tanker child society canteen jugger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite

00:01:45.920 liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine near the day the

00:01:53.680 thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip it's going to happen right now go

00:02:03.120 and if you subscribe to owen gregorian's x feed you would get extra spaces as well so think about that

00:02:24.640 well i would be i'm making a mistake if i didn't remind you

00:02:29.840 you that the dillberg calendar is still slightly for sale meaning that we're getting close to selling

00:02:39.040 out which is both true and a mechanism of persuasion to tell you that there are shortages but it's

00:02:47.840 actually true there there is a risk that if you wait a week or two we might have sold out

00:02:56.320 so get your dillberg calendar while they still exist all right i like to start my show talking about

00:03:05.360 science so apparently there's a new study in the uk that says that polar bears are undergoing rapid genetic

00:03:17.040 change to adjust to climate change because climate change would wipe them out except that

00:03:26.480 they may have rapidly changed their own genetic nature to adapt now why do you think there would be a

00:03:35.840 research about the genetic structure of polar bears and then and then blaming that on climate change

00:03:45.200 could it be because everything else they blamed on climate change turned out to be bs

00:03:51.680 the coral reefs are recovering the ice seems to be recovering there doesn't seem to be any any important

00:04:00.400 change in sea level and we had no major storms reach landfall in the united states this year

00:04:07.840 so pretty much all the stuff that the climate people tried to scare us about turned down not to be true

00:04:16.880 so they're running out of stuff so if you still want to be a climate change person or this was reported by abc news

00:04:26.880 if you want to still keep with the climate crisis you're going to need some new stuff

00:04:32.480 so i think the new stuff is wait look what's happening to the polar bears oh surprise they survived by

00:04:44.320 self-evolving their genetics rapidly

00:04:48.960 now one of the things this makes me wonder if you were a scientist and i'm certainly not

00:04:59.680 do scientists believe

00:05:03.120 that well do scientists think that the worst other scientists are climate change scientists

00:05:09.200 if you were a physicist would you say to yourself ooh those climate scientists are the smart ones or or

00:05:22.000 would you say that the people who can't be good scientists become climate scientists

00:05:28.800 if you're actually a scientist would you think that climate scientists are as

00:05:33.600 as serious and talented as other scientists or would you say

00:05:43.680 or you or would you say that they're the laughing stock

00:05:46.960 of scientists i don't know the answer to that question but

00:05:51.200 when i see stuff like this i think hmm i don't think that was the most serious science that was happening

00:05:57.520 all right here's some more science from eric dolan who he's writing about this in cyprus uh the headline

00:06:06.320 is that some men may downplay climate change risks to avoid appearing feminine

00:06:13.360 do you think that do you think that apparently there's a big difference in opinion between men and women

00:06:20.960 on the risks of climate change men are less likely to think it's a

00:06:26.400 existential risk and women are far more likely do you think the reason for that 0.99

00:06:32.720 is that the men according to the study that the men are trying to avoid looking feminine

00:06:39.440 so they think it's just sort of tougher to not be afraid of climate science

00:06:45.600 well that might be what's going on

00:06:49.440 but that's an interpretation

00:06:50.960 is it also possible that this was written by women or men who are married to women

00:06:59.600 because it's a little bit a little bit biased

00:07:05.440 the other possibility is that men are better at evaluating physical risk

00:07:10.720 and seeing through the bs

00:07:12.080 so are men trying to be less feminine or are they just better at evaluating risk

00:07:23.440 well i think you put this in either frame

00:07:26.160 but it does suggest that whoever wrote the opinion that the real problem here is men trying to appear

00:07:34.240 less feminine that looks like it was written by a woman

00:07:38.000 or a man who was married to a woman and wanted to stay that way

00:07:44.000 just guessing speculating

00:07:46.880 so parmar lucky the billionaire head of uh anduril he seems to be doing a lot of public

00:07:57.600 podcasting and interviews and stuff lately and i always enjoy reading his opinions

00:08:05.120 but he seems to be part of what i'm seeing as a growing billionaire trend

00:08:10.560 and when i say billionaire trend i mean the billionaires i seem to like the most

00:08:16.960 that the billionaires need to use their their power and their money to make the world a better place

00:08:25.520 now not being forced to do it not being forced by the government to do it or taxed or something

00:08:31.920 was simply because of the best allocating capital

00:08:35.680 so if you had a billion dollars floating around and you said what are we going to do with it would

00:08:43.360 you rather give the billion dollars to oh let's say tim waltz in minnesota

00:08:51.280 or gavin newsom in california or somebody like elon musk who definitely knows how to deploy capital

00:09:00.160 um so i saw chamath from the allen pod saying that the billionaires need to do a better job of

00:09:09.760 providing obvious benefits to the public the way the old billionaires used to do in turn of the century

00:09:17.760 the other turn of the century and uh that's probably good advice because i think if they're doing

00:09:26.160 things like creating public libraries you know the old billionaire stuff or in today's world if they're

00:09:35.040 i don't know building cities that could make people happier or maybe they're helping to you know treat

00:09:45.680 problems that the government is not treating maybe they're making health care affordable

00:09:50.720 uh maybe they're making transportation affordable so that the billionaires need to step up and the 0.65

00:09:59.280 alternative would be um you know being taxed that of the money and then the the money goes where it would

00:10:07.520 not be well employed so apparently uh palmer lucky is trying to convince some of his other billionaire friends

00:10:17.040 uh to spend less time on their yachts and more time trying to deploy capital

00:10:25.120 in what makes sense so if you see elon musk and chamath and palmer lucky all the same side of a topic

00:10:35.440 it's probably something you should pay attention to yeah there are smartest people this episode is brought to

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00:11:15.280 i saw brett weinstein give an opinion on childhood vaccines that i thought was

00:11:24.080 very close to my own opinion but he does such a good job of communicating i thought i'd tell you how he

00:11:31.360 explains it so brett said quote i believe the adverse events from regular old vaccines so we're not

00:11:41.600 talking about covet just the vaccines that kids get are the that the adverse effects are far more common

00:11:51.040 than we imagined including things like allergies so he thinks his weed allergy might be because of

00:11:59.840 something called adjuvants that uh were in his early childhood vaccinations he said one of his sons has

00:12:08.960 seasonal allergies uh they're pretty bad the other has an allergy to dairy that's pretty bad

00:12:15.920 um and then he says given all that education that i've now painfully received meaning he's done a pretty

00:12:24.320 deep dive on the vaccine world and he is you know qualified to understand that stuff scientifically if

00:12:33.840 i had to do it all over again i would not end up giving any vaccines to my newborn children wow i'm so glad

00:12:44.480 that i don't have newborn children because this would be i mean this is a big decision

00:12:51.280 used to used to feel like it was automatic like of course you get vaccinations you know the scientists

00:12:58.320 all say you should do it of course you would but here's what brett says he says this this is the important part

00:13:09.040 he says i'm not saying it's impossible that any of them are more beneficial than they are harmful

00:13:16.000 but now i know that i cannot trust the safety testing so his opinion is based on the fact

00:13:23.760 that that we now know that the safety testing has been inadequate forever so

00:13:33.600 be being very careful here he's not saying he knows that these are the problem

00:13:38.720 he is saying he knows that you can't tell and that his personal decision if he had to make it now

00:13:47.520 would be to not vaccinate children that is pretty extreme but also i would say perfectly backed up by

00:13:56.720 observation and i'm obviously not qualified to do a deep dive on vaccinations but he is and he has

00:14:08.720 and so it's pretty shocking uh development so how much did you use to trust science and how much do you

00:14:18.880 trust it today was there ever a time when you thought the climate scientists were nailing it

00:14:31.200 and that they were totally legit and that the big pharma must have been forced to do good science or else

00:14:40.720 the stuff wouldn't be approved and now it kind of looks the opposite doesn't it now we know that at

00:14:48.720 least half of all scientific studies are not reproducible we watched the pandemic

00:14:56.720 pervert science like we didn't think was possible and now we're coming to understand that even climate

00:15:03.200 science you know one of the biggest most important domains we thought was probably full of the least

00:15:12.000 qualified scientists who were not exactly being scientific they may have just been following the money if

00:15:19.520 you know what i mean so that goes all the way back to do you vaccinate your baby

00:15:27.840 that's a big difference from even what i thought i mean i've been skeptical about the power of science

00:15:35.600 and how much might be fraudulent i've been skeptical for a long time but not this skeptical

00:15:41.360 i mean i've just fallen off a ledge in terms of trusting science

00:15:49.200 probably some of you too well remember i keep saying that if robots were going to be launched in 2026

00:16:00.800 and if those robots would be the

00:16:02.640 uh general kind they could learn something and be your butler that we would already see them in the lab

00:16:13.680 well interestingly uh sawyer marathon x is reporting that tesla has uh you know a bunch of new job

00:16:21.440 openings for their optimist robot program and uh elon musk was saying that the optimist version 3

00:16:29.760 which must be the version of working on in the lab um has a new hand that's an incredible piece of engineering

00:16:38.560 so apparently i've heard elon say this before that the optimist robot hand has finally broken through

00:16:47.680 to be like just super sensitive and and good and if you can't get the hand right

00:16:54.160 you'll never have a proper robot because and apparently all the robot companies can make a robot that walks

00:17:03.120 and you know lifts heavy objects but it's really hard according to elon to get a hand but they believe

00:17:11.840 they have now achieved you know the sensitivity and the and the dexterity of a human hand

00:17:20.000 so what musk says is the new hand is an incredible piece of engineering and then he says we'll have

00:17:27.280 a production intent prototype meaning they intend it to be production ready to show in february or march

00:17:36.240 of this year 2026. so they'll be able to show you a prototype then then he says we're going to build

00:17:45.040 one million unit production lines and they hope production will start by the end of 2026. so

00:17:55.200 uh remember my caution that if it's not already as smart as it needs to be

00:18:02.560 how do we know it will ever get there in one year because i don't think llms you know the current

00:18:10.960 technology can get you a general purpose general intelligence robot but is there something happening

00:18:19.280 in the labs at tesla that they know that we don't know this suggests that within a year that that they're

00:18:27.600 so certain they'll have that that they would already start on a production line

00:18:32.000 i don't know i can't tell how much that is optimism and the fact that musk might think

00:18:43.600 well even if i don't know how to do it today a year is a long time in ai

00:18:50.000 and by then i will know how to do it now keep in mind the minute they figure out how to do it

00:18:56.000 and the it in this case is making a general intelligence robot the moment they know how to do

00:19:02.080 it all the robots will have that ability because it's just the downloads it's just software

00:19:09.440 so again i don't want to bet against elon musk on robots or technology or anything about the future

00:19:18.640 he has a good track record of prediction but maybe i would disagree with him on the timing

00:19:25.360 it would be really hard that by the end of 2026 we invented this thing that i don't think anybody

00:19:35.200 has an idea how to invent you know why why would it be this year if we went all this time without

00:19:41.680 knowing how to do it up till now would the current ais tell us how to make a better ai

00:19:48.800 i don't know if that's possible would the current ais be able to iterate all the different ways you

00:19:58.880 can create intelligence until they hit one maybe i don't know but by now i would have expected to see

00:20:07.760 general intelligence if they're going to start selling it at the end of the year

00:20:13.680 end of 2026 so we'll see well greg abbott governor of texas is going to create a chief state prosecutor

00:20:28.560 to prosecute the criminals that the lefty prosecutors refuse to prosecute

00:20:34.400 um so texas is pretty serious about the crime and everybody knows that if you got rid of the

00:20:44.240 worst of the criminals the worst of the worst i'm not even talking about immigration not just crime 0.98

00:20:50.800 if you got rid of the ones that are the repeat offenders your your violent crime rate would go down

00:20:56.720 by 80 percent immediately because 80 percent of the crimes are the same criminals doing one crime after

00:21:03.600 another but if you had soros funded prosecutors they're making things worse instead of better

00:21:13.680 because they'd be releasing the criminals you know and maybe they shouldn't and the work around

00:21:20.320 that uh greg abbott is proposing is to have a chief state prosecutor that would go after those people

00:21:28.320 that the regular prosecutors had decided to release is that a good idea what do you think well i take a

00:21:38.000 sip of water here i think one of my meds is making me dry mouth

00:21:42.960 well it feels like a good idea to me

00:21:52.080 all right so you know that on the political right there's been some drama among the influencers and you

00:22:03.920 know that i've tried to completely stay out of it because i don't find value in that kind of drama

00:22:09.680 but yesterday or recently a little thing popped up that i thought i could add a reframe to that would be useful

00:22:22.880 and it starts with the story of um i guess the background is people like jack bosobiec and mark

00:22:31.840 levin have some kind of drama background disagreement or something and that part i'm not

00:22:39.440 interested in but there was an event recently where uh at the turning point usa where a number of public

00:22:50.400 figures were giving selfies because that's sort of what you do in an event like that you get a number

00:22:56.240 of public figures the public wants you know we we don't do autographs anymore we public figures we

00:23:04.960 mostly do selfies so there are a lot of selfies and uh i guess somebody who was a had a nick fuentes

00:23:14.720 inspired t-shirt had a selfie taken with jack bosobiec and then jack was challenged to hey you know why

00:23:25.040 are you taking a selfie with somebody with such a terrible meme on his t-shirt

00:23:30.160 uh now that's the sort of problem that nobody needs and uh i'll give you a little uh context on

00:23:41.120 that and then my opinion of what's the best way to handle it now the first thing you need to know is

00:23:48.720 who the hell is nick fuentes and i would i would frame it this way he's not on the left

00:23:56.800 he's a very popular uh podcast and very provocative i'll tell you why so he's not on the left because

00:24:04.560 he's conservative but he's also a trump hater so he's not really on the mega right or the mega left

00:24:13.120 so what is he because he's got a large and growing audience i feel like the best way to understand them

00:24:19.840 is the turd in the punch bowl analogy so i'll give you a i'll give you a little mental model here let's

00:24:28.480 say you went to a party and it was a mixed party there were old people and young people and people of

00:24:35.680 all type at the party and somebody put a turd in the punch bowl like not a not a joke turd

00:24:45.520 like an actual turd and they put it right in the punch bowl and then ran away and nobody saw them do

00:24:50.640 it well what would happen well first of all the women attending the party would say i'm out of here 1.00

00:24:59.120 this is not the kind of party i want to be at there's a turn in the punch bowl so women will leave 1.00

00:25:05.200 the older men would say oh god who did that you know we're gonna have to find who did that and you know

00:25:13.200 you know there has to be consequences so they would also leave the party because they don't

00:25:19.680 want to be at a party with a turd and punch bowl but the young men the young men would think it's the

00:25:27.200 funniest thing that happened to them all week and even if the party shut down they would gather in the

00:25:33.440 in the parking lot and they would laugh uproariously at the fact that somebody put a turd in the punch bowl

00:25:40.880 at a respectable party

00:25:44.640 now what you need to know is that uh nick fuentes who is verbally gifted and very good at the whole

00:25:54.160 you know public speaking thing is closer to a turn in the punch bowl than he is to any of the attendees

00:26:02.800 so if you if you think of him as sort of a train wreck where you can't look away then you would

00:26:12.080 understand why his audience of mostly young men is growing and enthusiastic then if you add on top of

00:26:20.800 that that young men feel feel not they feel like they're not served by the current system

00:26:29.760 then it's not unusual that they would have a you know burn down the system kind of approach to life

00:26:37.440 they wouldn't respect the system but they would like a good prank when they saw it so they'd actually be

00:26:45.040 attached not attached to they would be attracted to the fact that somebody put a turd in the punch bowl

00:26:53.280 because they're they're not respecting the system the system doesn't respect them

00:26:58.480 and it's not that they're in favor of turds that this is the important part they're not in favor of turds

00:27:06.000 they're not drinking the punch they're just can't look away because it's a it's a show that is a

00:27:14.400 spectacle all right so with that in mind if you imagine him as the turn in the punch bowl um someone

00:27:23.840 who had a a t-shirt meme that was i understand inspired by fuentes that involved the worst thing you

00:27:33.520 could imagine which obviously i disavow because you know i'm an older i'm an older man obviously i

00:27:41.840 disavow it uh which had some kind of cookie monster connection to the holocaust and don't don't make me

00:27:51.600 spell it out it's just where whatever's the worst thing you can imagine so that was uninsured so this

00:27:58.400 fellow asked for who was also an influencer it turns out asked for a uh selfie with jack sabik who gave it

00:28:11.360 to him uh along with lots of other selfies that he was doing that day and um it would be unusual

00:28:20.080 for any normal person to have known that that t-shirt was connected to fuentes or even what it meant it

00:28:30.880 it wasn't an obvious uh connection but if you were deep into that world you might recognize that

00:28:37.840 but normal people would not have known what it was so it caught my attention because mark levitin

00:28:45.200 who must have some prior bigger disagreement with jack wrote a what looked like a drunken uncle

00:28:57.360 rant about wow you need to explain you know explain this basically i'm summarizing now i'm not saying

00:29:06.560 that levit was drunk when he wrote the message because i don't even know if he drinks but it came off that

00:29:13.040 way if you had just been introduced to him for the first time his content and you and the only thing

00:29:20.560 you knew is what he wrote on that one post it would look like maybe the eggnog was involved uh so it

00:29:28.880 seemed like it was pretty extreme and i imagine that had to do with their background not so much with this

00:29:35.520 specific event but i would like to give you a reframe uh in my typical goals versus systems way you know

00:29:48.400 i often tell you uh you know sometimes it's useful to have a goal but it's not going to be useful unless

00:29:57.120 you've got a system that makes sense so i would argue because i i got some feedback from people in

00:30:04.000 comments when i weighed in on that um somebody said that they they needed to know and here they would

00:30:12.000 be talking about jack that they needed to know what he believed because he was one of the people asking

00:30:18.800 for unity so if somebody's going to ask you to unify with them is it a reasonable goal to know what

00:30:28.320 it is you're unifying with to which i say yes as a goal it would be good to know what people believe

00:30:36.720 if they want you to join them in their belief or or even in their activities you don't have to join

00:30:42.880 them in the belief but yeah that would be a worthy goal however it would be a terrible system

00:30:49.200 to use a stranger's t-shirt as a starting point with that conversation especially if you're at a

00:30:59.040 charlie kirk inspired event the main thing that charlie kirk inspired in my opinion and one of the

00:31:07.920 things i respect the most about him is that he tried to turn everything into a civilized

00:31:15.520 um debate in which anybody could ask anybody anything and you would get an honest answer to it

00:31:26.000 that's pretty much what he was doing he was going places and say ask me anything and i'll give you my

00:31:31.840 honest you know opinion so if you happen to be an event in which the entire vibe is that you can ask

00:31:42.000 anybody their opinion and they will give you a respectful opinion you don't need to start the

00:31:47.200 conversation based on a turn in the punch bowl and the shirt he's wearing because if you start there

00:31:57.120 you're just automatically gonna you know open up this side conversation that you don't need

00:32:04.000 it would be far better to ask somebody about a shirt they were wearing so if in fact you know i'm wearing

00:32:13.680 a shirt that offends you it certainly makes sense that you should ask do you believe what's on your

00:32:19.520 own shirt of course but don't ask me to defend someone else's meme on a shirt that normal people

00:32:27.760 wouldn't even recognize as being offensive that's not a good starting point the starting point is you

00:32:34.160 just ask jack jack what is your opinion on this or that and he would give you a respectful reply

00:32:44.160 anyway so i don't think anybody needs to apologize or explain

00:32:50.400 someone else's shirt just because they took a selfie with them and i would also say there will

00:32:58.800 always be a audience for the turn in the punch bowl now if you're in my category which is people who

00:33:08.400 don't like turds and punch balls what do you do about it is it your job to fix it and if it is your job

00:33:17.600 to fix it let's just say from a social perspective you don't want to identify with something that's 0.91

00:33:23.680 you know so bad well i can i think it kind of depends who you are uh i have the arrogant opinion

00:33:32.960 that if someone who is young and had a very bad opinion that's which is way over the line

00:33:39.840 you're just way over the line into inappropriate that if they associate with me

00:33:44.960 that over time they would moderate their opinion because i would have a positive influence on them

00:33:53.600 what i don't believe would ever happen and maybe this is just my own arrogance i don't believe that

00:33:59.680 if i took a selfie with or spend time with or tolerated someone who had a wholly inappropriate

00:34:08.160 opinion that somehow that would rub off on me i think it only works in one direction in my case

00:34:18.640 so in my case being an influential type person you know by by practice and by nature i guess i feel that

00:34:28.240 young people would sort of drift on their own without me being heavy-handed about it

00:34:36.320 to eventually be like an older man's opinion and you start being less impressed by the turd and the

00:34:42.960 punch bowl and and more interested in being part of the solution you know sort of the palmer lucky thing

00:34:49.920 be part of the solution so that's my my reframe is you can certainly ask a person their own opinion

00:34:58.160 but it would be a bad system to start with what do you think about that stranger's shirt bad way to start

00:35:08.720 all right now i'm trying desperately not desperately but i don't want to get dragged into the actual

00:35:20.720 um debate you know i think there's plenty of room for people to have different opinions but different

00:35:28.240 opinions is not what the turd and the punch bowl is about that's more about the spectacle

00:35:33.360 um so i don't have to be yes or no on the fuentes question i simply have to be a good job of being me

00:35:44.880 and maybe that will have some influence on some of the younger all right next next

00:35:54.800 i saw a uh on the x account arch archaeo histories um i'd always wondered about this the origin of the

00:36:08.560 dunning krueger effect now you've heard of dunning krueger right that's where people who know the

00:36:15.920 least often have the most confidence about the rightness so the less you know the more confident

00:36:23.120 you can be well apparently that was based on one or at least it was triggered by one story that back in

00:36:31.920 1995 there was a bank robber who believed that if he put lemon juice on his face when he robbed the bank

00:36:41.520 the bank cameras wouldn't be uh wouldn't be able to see him and his his thinking was that since lemon

00:36:50.240 juice was a component of invisible ink that therefore logically if you put lemon juice on your face

00:36:57.200 uh it would make you invisible on camera now that is not the case it turns out and he actually smiled at

00:37:05.200 the camera because he was so sure that he would be invisible so he easily got caught because his face was

00:37:14.080 quite identifiable on the camera and he was surprised and he exclaimed reportedly quote but i wore the juice

00:37:24.720 the juice now i guess there were some researchers who heard that story and thought we have to look into

00:37:31.040 this what's up with that and then through research they discovered that it is common for people who know

00:37:40.400 the least in this case he didn't know much about cameras or invisible ink to be the most confident

00:37:47.600 and indeed he was confident because he actually robbed the bank thinking he was safe so i just mentioned

00:37:55.680 that because i think it's fun to know where that came from and it's a slow news day

00:38:01.680 i'm looking at the comments to see somebody had tony robbins comments here let me see that

00:38:20.800 if i can make that tony robbins if you i can't stop the comments if you're if you just ignore problems

00:38:29.120 with your thinking then you get in trouble no i don't i don't think ignoring problems is always

00:38:40.800 the right way to go i'm not sure i understand that comment so i'm gonna let that go

00:38:48.160 anyway according to news busters craig banister is writing

00:38:52.720 that uh facts flip voters view of the trump economy so the thesis here um is basically the fact that

00:39:04.720 trump did it and addressed the nation recently and he mentioned all the economic successes

00:39:12.640 and apparently the mainstream networks seem to have somehow locked down the graphics

00:39:22.080 that would show how right he was about the economy being better in all these different different ways

00:39:30.160 so that would explain why some of the public still thinks that the economy is bad

00:39:38.880 it could be because they're just being blocked from seeing the evidence that is good

00:39:44.880 now i don't know if you've had this experience yet but if you watch

00:39:48.320 news from the right leading places it will universally say man this economy is good from inflation to

00:39:57.680 employment to gdp you can't beat it and they'll have numbers to back it up weirdly democrats could do the 0.54

00:40:05.920 same thing and do with their argument that the economy is actually bad so they've got their own set of

00:40:14.240 uh their own set of alleged data that would show that the economy is bad in a bunch of ways

00:40:22.640 so is the economy good or is the economy bad well um if we uh if we let's let's say put a pin in that

00:40:36.160 question and rather we look at the fact can people be persuaded by being told real facts about the

00:40:44.800 economy or will they be so dunning kruger and so biased that even if they had access to really reliable

00:40:55.360 information that was the opposite of what they had currently believed would they change their minds

00:41:02.000 and the research suggests that they would change their minds and that if they had seen what they

00:41:09.280 believed to be accurate information that said that the economy is doing well that fairly drastically

00:41:17.440 people would say oh i guess the economy is doing well but if they do not have access to that new

00:41:25.040 better information then they would not change their mind which would suggest that the main

00:41:30.960 street media might know that and that's the reason that they don't emphasize uh trump and his graphics

00:41:39.040 showing everything getting better now that's that's pot let me use the numbers uh

00:41:49.440 in a survey conducted in mid-december 56 percent of u.s voter surveys said they believe the economy is getting

00:41:57.600 worse well only 37 percent said it was getting better now this is mid-december then uh once voters were

00:42:08.000 informed of the facts and again you could debate whether these are the real facts or not but uh let's

00:42:14.560 let's say these trump facts the number slipped and the percent who said the economy is improving jumped

00:42:21.520 25 points from 37 to 62 while pessimism plummeted from 56 to 33 so that um and so the the allegation here

00:42:38.160 is that the mainstream media has to hide the truth because the truth would tell people that the economy is

00:42:44.400 doing well maybe maybe the other possibility is that the democrats have some data of their own

00:42:54.800 and since most data is fake even if you agree with it most data from the left most data from the right

00:43:03.040 it's hard to trust any data in 2025 26 it feels like no matter where you're looking you're getting weird data

00:43:14.000 i'm seeing in the comments where do you get your news scott um i i gave a long description of where i got my

00:43:21.040 news the other day because that's a good question but i do sample you know cnn and msn now and um i always

00:43:31.680 listen to jessica uh tarloff on the five so i try to get both sides and especially eclipse you know so i get

00:43:42.400 clips to show both sides uh that was a good question so the answer is i sample both sides or try to

00:43:53.840 so um and online i don't know if he'd be an influencer or a independent journalist or what

00:44:02.080 you call him but somebody called nick shirley put out a video in which he went to minnesota and

00:44:09.200 look for fraud on his own because you know there have been allegations that the the somalis especially 0.85

00:44:17.920 have been stealing mass amounts of money and i guess he was trying to figure out how hard it would be to

00:44:24.640 spot the frauds and the answer is it is alarmingly easy so he went to a number of places that alleged

00:44:32.480 that they were uh taking government money and using it for charitable reasons and almost every one of

00:44:43.360 them was a storefront or an empty store and very obviously not in the business of helping anybody so

00:44:51.920 the shocking part is he alleges he found 110 million dollars in one day of what looked like fraudulent

00:45:02.640 money transfers to fraudulent fake entities and if he could do it with just his microphone and his camera

00:45:12.240 and a plane ticket how hard was it for minnesota itself to know that that was going on

00:45:19.440 if you could uncover it that easily and it's what i'm i'm not adding to the story that the fraud exists

00:45:30.320 that part we knew what he added to the story is that anybody could have seen it it was just right down

00:45:37.920 in the open i mean you had to ask a couple of questions and walk around a little bit but you

00:45:44.240 didn't have to be like sherlock holmes it was right there so elon musk commented on that video uh with uh

00:45:55.600 just three words prosecute governor tim woltz prosecute governor tim woltz four words

00:46:05.840 now do you think that you could prosecute the governor

00:46:10.720 um or that if you looked into it you would find evidence that you could because there's no way to

00:46:17.200 believe that he was unaware well here's the weird thing governor woltz does not have obvious signs of

00:46:26.320 wealth does he does it look like he you know made millions of dollars because he doesn't live any kind

00:46:36.160 of a lifestyle as far as we know it would suggest that he's you know spending a lot of money he could

00:46:43.920 be packing away if in fact he's criminal he could be uh maybe he had been blackmailed or threatened

00:46:54.640 so he had to keep it quiet so he could stay safe i have no evidence of that

00:46:59.760 but uh elon musk of course has dug deeper and all these things that you and i have

00:47:06.960 so when he says prosecute tim woltz some of that might be that it seems obviously he couldn't have

00:47:15.040 not known some of it might be that tim woltz has tried to prosecute elon musk and tried to destroy his

00:47:24.080 companies tried really hard to destroy his companies and he did it publicly that uh you're just seeing

00:47:31.520 an obvious kind of response to that but i am curious if tim woltz was massively incompetent

00:47:41.040 or was he threatened to stay quiet he might have been threatened might have been too dangerous to be

00:47:47.760 even a whistleblower himself or so incompetence crime or is he a victim himself i doubt he's a victim

00:47:58.240 himself

00:48:01.440 so according to wall street apes also an ex portland oregon spent 1.5 billion in the last two years of

00:48:09.840 the homelessness and yet the homelessness population rose by 60 percent so that's a bad result and by

00:48:19.520 comparison houston texas spent only 72 million so we're not talking billions just millions on homelessness

00:48:29.120 and their homelessness went out by 60 percent all right so democrats spent a massive amount of money

00:48:38.320 and things went in the wrong direction texas spent a good deal of money but just a fraction

00:48:45.760 and things went strongly in the right direction how do you explain that

00:48:51.680 well a reasonable assumption is that democrats are laundering money and they're a criminal organization

00:48:59.520 and they did not do the things that you would obviously do to reduce

00:49:03.840 uh homelessness but rather they stole it now i'm not sure that's what's happening

00:49:14.400 but it sure looks like it doesn't it it looks a little steely

00:49:19.120 anyway

00:49:30.240 apparently over in china according to interesting engineering china did some kind of demonstration

00:49:37.680 with robots and hackers and found that one hacked robot could in fact other hack could in fact other

00:49:47.440 robots just by being near it so one robot could if it had been hacked into doing something evil could co-opt

00:49:57.200 another robot uh without using the internet because the thing we worried about is if all the robots are on

00:50:05.680 the internet somebody would hack the ball or or the bad robot would have access to the other robots

00:50:12.160 and the logo but it would make this awesome movie where if one robot got near another robot it could

00:50:20.960 instantly hack it and co-opt it into being evil and so i asked the following question

00:50:29.360 in order to create robots that smart you're going to have some kind of form of ai

00:50:35.200 could the ai or a version of ai be the thing that protects the other robots from hackers

00:50:45.280 in other words can you build a robot that would have sort of a separate ai brain

00:50:52.800 that did nothing but watch the rest of the robot to make sure it had not gotten hacked

00:50:57.920 and is that the only way that you could prevent a high intelligence robot from hacking another robot

00:51:09.040 is to have ai that's just like a a sentry so that's what i predict i think humans would not be fast

00:51:17.680 enough to respond to a hacker robot hacking other robots but if the robot that's being attacked

00:51:27.200 has its own ai sentry built into it that you can't get to with any kind of ai 1.00

00:51:35.840 and then notice some change happening the rest of the robot could shut it down

00:51:42.640 so i think that might be the model just guessing speaking of china interesting engineering says that

00:51:51.360 china's starting some of their cargo vessels of which they have massive numbers use china does so much

00:51:59.120 shipping that they just have massive numbers of cargo ships it looks like they found a way

00:52:05.680 and this is not confirmed but videos are showing it looks like they're putting some kind of

00:52:13.280 weapons platforms on the commercial ships

00:52:19.280 and the idea is

00:52:21.200 and again this is just speculation

00:52:23.600 that china is trying to create a situation where if war happened

00:52:27.280 um they could quickly militarize their massive fleet of of commercial ships

00:52:37.280 now that would be a really good strategy it seems to me those ships would be a little bit vulnerable to attack

00:52:43.440 but they have so many of them that if you imagine that war breaks out and suddenly

00:52:49.840 suddenly china has 10 000 ships that are warships

00:52:54.320 that would be

00:52:54.880 probably presumably an interesting military strategy but again i feel like those ships would be so

00:53:05.120 vulnerable to attack from you know unmanned missiles and drones that they would get so quickly

00:53:14.720 unless some of the military hardware you're putting on the ships is some kind of amazing

00:53:21.520 you know anti-missile anti-drone lasers uh on top of the offensive weapons

00:53:30.480 so i just thought that was interesting

00:53:34.000 well there's some teacher according to breitbart there's a teacher in the uk

00:53:40.800 who has been referred to the uk terror program i didn't know they had a terror program

00:53:47.040 because he showed some uh donald trump videos so apparently if you're a school teacher in england

00:53:54.800 and you even show a video of trump uh you could be you could be accused of being a terrorist

00:54:03.440 and referred to some kind of terrorist handling thing and i guess this program was established to

00:54:11.920 to stop people from becoming radicalized so the uk is so afraid of trump

00:54:20.960 that they make it illegal to show young people trump videos

00:54:26.000 now i suppose it might matter which video you're showing them but what has trump ever done

00:54:32.560 that would be so dangerous that it would radicalize the youth to become terrorists that's pretty crazy

00:54:43.600 speaking of trump let's see what's happening elsewhere in the world i guess netanyahu is going to visit

00:54:50.080 trump on monday for what's called a crucial um conversation about what's going to happen in gaza

00:54:59.200 now if you have a situation and i think we do in which what's good for america and what's good for trump

00:55:11.600 is that the gaza thing is fixed in some way that's acceptable to you know uh at least america right but

00:55:22.720 netanyahu does not represent america his job is to represent israel and it seems pretty clear

00:55:30.960 that netanyahu does not want to let's say give up his military control of gaza which might be a

00:55:40.400 requirement to get to whatever the peace plan calls for so let's say you have a situation which we do in

00:55:49.760 which the interest of the president of the united states and arguably america itself is to get this

00:55:56.480 thing settled and and to do that they need some things that israel with its current government would

00:56:05.520 never agree to so they're never going to agree to a two-state solution when netanyahu is in charge

00:56:12.160 and they're never going to agree to give up security in gaza so how would you predict how that turns out

00:56:24.080 well if i were israel time would seem to be on my side because eventually trump will be out of office

00:56:32.880 and he might be the only president strong enough to you know move israel in a way they don't want to move

00:56:42.720 so if netanyahu and again i'm just speculating because i can't read minds but it seems to me that

00:56:50.000 israel has time on their side and they can outweigh trump unless trump puts so much pressure on him

00:56:59.680 that like pressure they've never seen before that netanyahu caves but even then it feels like israel 0.62

00:57:10.560 could have weighed him out because even if they agreed today to do xyz and even if they did those things

00:57:19.120 they could reverse it they just have to wait three years so

00:57:24.160 so the thing i'd be looking for in these conversations is whether israel agrees to

00:57:32.640 anything that looks like it would solve this problem in a way that trump would be happy

00:57:40.160 and i'm thinking that the only logical way this is going to go is that they will not agree or netanyahu

00:57:49.200 will agree in a way that he would still kick the can down the road and change his mind later

00:57:55.920 i remind you that i don't have opinions on whether israel is good or bad

00:58:04.240 or any of that i simply observe them as a foreign country that is an ally of the united states

00:58:11.600 my interest is in the united states and uh i'm an observer when it comes to israel just an observer

00:58:21.200 they don't nobody needs no one needs my opinion of what they should be doing

00:58:28.000 but i'll give you an opinion of what you know maybe is the predictable future

00:58:32.720 well there's a report from british scientists that they they think they have a cancer vaccine

00:58:43.760 that could be available within 10 years to which i say every year of my life

00:58:51.840 there has been a cancer vaccine that could be available within 10 years so far not so much

00:59:00.800 all right ladies and gentlemen that is the end of my prepared remarks and i believe you need

00:59:10.800 a simultaneous step if you joined us late there's still time simul today go

00:59:20.000 very good and i remind you that there will be an owen gregorian themed not themed um hosted spaces

00:59:35.440 event right after this you should give them a few minutes to set up whenever he's ready and you can

00:59:43.280 continue the conversation if you happen to be on x

00:59:46.000 then spaces is available to you as audio only and if you don't know where to find it search for owen

00:59:55.760 gregorian it'll pop right up you'll see it'll be at the top of his feed on x

01:00:04.560 all right was there anything you liked or didn't like about today's show

01:00:10.000 i will take your comments now you find yourself quoting me consistently you know i'm going to do a

01:00:23.040 an x post in a little while not today but sometime soon in which i'm going to ask you

01:00:30.960 to give you to give me some feedback on who i might have influenced be it you or somebody notable because

01:00:41.200 i wonder about that myself and i would love to know your opinion of who i've influenced

01:00:48.000 you know one of the things i'd love to influence

01:00:58.400 is the trump pirate ship approach to building a coalition i've always loved the fact that trump could

01:01:07.680 ignore how much he disagrees with you if you're willing to be a pirate on the ship

01:01:13.920 and that's really worked well i i think people respect being included even if you disagree with some

01:01:24.400 of the some or even all of the views as long as you're not um listen as long as it's not personal

01:01:33.200 and if he says hey you're a pirate i'm a pirate

01:01:36.800 um we can both be in the pirate ship

01:01:44.400 i influenced trump by prepping him that kamala was his future opponent well i did predict she would

01:01:51.040 be his future opponent but i doubt i influenced him in some important way about that

01:01:58.800 i did not invent the term trump derangement syndrome that was charles krauhammer i think and it was first

01:02:11.920 introduced not about trump i think it was bush i think it was bush derangement syndrome first

01:02:18.960 um i'm definitely a booster of it but i did not invent it

01:02:30.960 all right how did you like my turn in the punch bowl analogy

01:02:35.920 did that did that clarify i think if you try to take somebody like nick fuentes

01:02:47.920 and jam him into existing uh buckets that you just confuse yourself because he definitely doesn't fit in

01:02:56.240 any existing bucket

01:03:03.040 turn is the word so you like the analogy yeah

01:03:10.240 the other thing i'd love to add is that young men especially are attracted to inappropriate content

01:03:19.520 and sometimes you just have to wait

01:03:23.760 and they they just grow out of this

01:03:25.680 i see what you're saying there will always be an audience for whatever is the most inappropriate

01:03:52.400 thing you could say in public but that doesn't mean that people will have that opinion all their life

01:04:04.240 so i believe that the guy who got the selfie

01:04:19.600 someone named myron was wearing a t-shirt that is allegedly inspired by fuentes so that that would be the

01:04:28.240 connection um and i don't know much about the background of any of that

01:04:34.480 i just know that there's a meme

01:04:38.480 that ordinary people would not have recognized as being what it is

01:04:47.040 myron gaines yeah i think that's what it was

01:04:50.400 i'm not too familiar with him except that he's provocative and does some podcasting

01:04:59.200 beyond that i don't really follow

01:05:04.240 he likely denies the holocaust 0.84

01:05:17.600 you know

01:05:20.640 i don't even want to get into that

01:05:22.000 it you know sort of like uh there's some topics that you can't add to

01:05:30.720 but if you get involved it sticks to you so i don't need that

01:05:36.480 anyway

01:05:51.680 all right just looking at your comments hanging out with you and i'll give uh owen sometimes to set up his

01:05:59.680 spaces

01:06:08.720 some of you like the turd in a punch bowl analogy

01:06:11.520 or another way to say it is you don't really have to spend your time

01:06:18.000 debating whether you do or do not agree with the turd in the punch bowl

01:06:22.000 that's really not what that's even about

01:06:31.280 yeah

01:06:43.200 all right

01:06:44.720 yeah the punch bowl is very visual isn't it

01:06:46.800 it's like i've done this before

01:07:01.280 i love you thank you

01:07:12.400 all right i think i've added all i can add today

01:07:16.080 change the world

01:07:16.960 so

01:07:21.200 don't blame people for their shirts that they take

01:07:26.240 whether somebody else is wearing during a selfie that's my lesson for the day

01:07:33.440 all right everybody have a great day join owen if you feel the urge i might be there myself later

01:07:40.800 i'm usually anonymous when i when i join that chat because i don't want to be taking away the attention

01:07:48.240 but you should know that i'm often in owen gregorian's spaces

01:07:53.040 i just do it anonymously so i can listen to you guys

01:07:56.480 and not be this not be the focus of attention all right bye for now

01:08:10.800 go ahead I system

01:08:13.600 or maybe you should like me

01:08:14.240 but i can be CONCROPHET

01:08:16.080 one of UK

01:08:18.480 or i don't care about data

01:08:19.680 or whatever

01:08:21.600 i can also recite Ch Souks 0.94

01:08:22.160 anything that you might like to share

01:08:24.640 is

01:08:25.200 like

01:08:26.480 it's expected

01:08:28.160 right

01:08:30.080 at

01:08:34.000 if

01:08:36.240 i

01:08:37.040 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - December 27, 2025

Episode 3055 CWSA 12⧸27⧸25

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