Episode 3057 CWSA 12⧸29⧸25
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode of the podcast, Alex Blumbergbergberg talks about artificial intelligence (A.I.) and what it means for the future of the world. He also talks about the FBI and its relationship with Hollywood.
Transcript
00:00:05.240
I have that about once a day, but the timing was really bad.
00:00:15.000
There were some topics I just wanted to talk about so badly.
00:00:21.000
So I'm not going to do the simultaneous step because I did that in the one that I aborted.
00:00:30.000
So does it seem to you that AI has turned into a race between building data centers and building power plants as fast as they can versus there's probably somebody in some garage somewhere who's inventing a way to do it without all that energy?
00:00:54.320
Because when we're trying to predict, you know, what does the future look like?
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I cannot imagine that the AI companies are right, that it will just take massive energy and more energy.
00:01:10.580
And if you want to get better, you just need more energy.
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This seems seems far more likely that somebody is already inventing a way around that.
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But, you know, Ron DeSantis, it turns out, is an AI skeptic.
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So he's interested in more regulation and doesn't want AI to use up all the energy, et cetera.
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And he put a really interesting slant on this, sort of a religious slant I hadn't heard before.
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He says, we have to reject with every fiber of our being.
00:02:03.520
Well, he said, the idea of this transhumanist strain, that would be the robots and the AI,
00:02:10.760
that somehow this is going to supplant humans and this other stuff.
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We have to reject that with every fiber of our being.
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He says, we as individual human beings are the ones that are endowed by God
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They did not endow machines or computers for this.
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What's going to happen to you if you have free will when robots obviously have it?
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So if I said to you, define free will, and I've had this conversation a million times,
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you say, well, it's the ability to make a choice.
00:03:10.240
Because if a computer does it, it's just programmed.
00:03:20.340
But what happens when you can't figure out why the AI did what it did,
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So you won't be able to trace back any kind of cause and effect.
00:03:37.180
It's going to look like the AI had choices, exactly like a human did, and it picked one.
00:03:50.260
Because once a computer can do it, then I would argue, hey, I can already do that.
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And if you can't predict why you would do it, that's going to look a lot like free choice.
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I recommend my book, God's Debris, if you want to struggle with some of those philosophical things.
00:04:18.600
The new version is called God's Debris, The Complete Works.
00:04:28.920
Speaking of fraud, did you know that James Comey once had conversations with TV director Dick Wolf,
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which I always thought was a sketchy name, Dick Wolf,
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to put more FBI content in his shows, because he was a very successful TV producer.
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So how many of you are aware that for decades and decades, Hollywood has been influenced by the government
00:05:05.560
to say good things about the military, say good things about law enforcement, say good things about the FBI?
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But when you hear it so, you know, plainly laid out,
00:05:25.280
it might shock a few people who didn't know that was the case.
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And I've argued that this is probably the good kind of propaganda if they do it right.
00:05:34.280
For example, if the propaganda on TV is to make people more patriotic,
00:05:42.720
So some of it's bad, but it might be also a cover for, you know, bad FBI behavior
00:05:49.940
to make them look good, when in fact they might be doing some stuff you don't like.
00:05:57.680
Well, here is something Kevin Kiley in California tells us,
00:06:02.660
that one-third of California community colleges,
00:06:08.200
And the only reason people are applying, one-third of them, is for financial aid fraud.
00:06:16.820
So how many times have I told you that if there's anything that involves a lot of money,
00:06:23.160
financial aid, and there's no audit, or at least no use of audit,
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Meanwhile, did you think the fraud was going to be limited to a few states?
00:07:02.920
Because whatever it is that made Minnesota and California so frickin' fraudulent
00:07:09.740
is almost certainly happening in the other states.
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there were 539 childcare centers that list Somali as a primary language.
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How many of those do you think are fraudulence?
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Wall Street Apes is reporting that fraudulent, oh, Somali healthcare companies are being created
00:08:08.540
where you can get as much as a quarter million dollars
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for being a fake healthcare person for your own family.
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You just have to have several relatives and just say,
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well, you know, I'm going to sit around this old relative and help.
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So apparently you could get $75,000 to $90,000 a year
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just saying that you're taking care of an elderly parent of your own.
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And if you have two parents, you can double it.
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If you add your in-laws, you can get up to a quarter million dollars a year
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for claiming that you're helping them, even if you don't do a damn thing.
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Let's see, this would be fraudulent for Medicare, right?
00:09:12.940
Well, I heard Owen Gregorian mention that there's this thing called
00:09:25.940
How many of you have ever heard that there's already on the books
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a, I guess you'd call it a law or a, I'm not sure if law is the right word,
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but it's, you know, part of a, some legislation that already passed
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Now, it turns out that there is an, it's Medicaid, not Medicare,
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I'm being told, that was being scammed in that last case.
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So I'm being told that this has already existed for years, and what it is,
00:10:00.460
is a provision in the law in the United States that if you, if you're a
00:10:07.380
whistleblower and you turn in some major fraud against the government, and this
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is critical, and the government accepts it as a major fraud, and then does some
00:10:19.720
legislative, does some, let's say a lawsuit to, to get it back, that you would get up
00:10:37.740
And apparently there's a startup, more than one, I think, but one of them is called
00:10:50.100
And he's informing us on X that they've already built a system that uses AI to identify
00:10:57.360
probable fraud, so that any citizen can take it to the government, and it would simplify,
00:11:07.840
So at first identify the fraud, the big ones, and then it would walk you through taking it
00:11:14.860
to the government, and if the government accepts the case, and why wouldn't they?
00:11:19.480
Because they would have pretty good evidence by then.
00:11:22.520
And if they get money back, you get a, you get a pretty big chunk of it.
00:11:27.360
So the thinking is that we already have a legal structure to essentially close down the biggest
00:11:37.400
frauds, because it would incentivize the public to be fraud hunters, and it would give them
00:11:50.080
You know, because people like me and Chamath Palapatea and Bill Ackman, a bunch of other
00:11:59.280
people, we've been talking about the lack of audit that would have caught these frauds.
00:12:06.080
But we also know that auditing doesn't work in its, in its normal form.
00:12:12.280
There would have to be some kind of major incentive for someone that can make so much money
00:12:19.300
by doing it through a proper legal framework that they wouldn't need to take a bribe.
00:12:27.540
So it wouldn't work for small stuff, because the bribe would still be bigger than you can
00:12:36.380
But for the big stuff, the stuff we care about, we might have actually something that looks
00:12:42.600
like a working procedure, because follow the money is going to work every time.
00:12:49.220
And this is a, it certainly looks like a possibility.
00:13:01.740
And if you want to know more about that, I'd recommend Grok.
00:13:11.080
And sort of on top of that, speaking of Shemath, and speaking of Nick Shirley, who's that 22-year-old
00:13:24.900
who did an amazing job of uncovering the fraud in, in Minnesota.
00:13:30.520
Now, people have pointed out that he isn't the first one to uncover it.
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The local news has already covered it, and a while ago, but it didn't activate anything.
00:13:41.080
So, apparently people knew there were whistleblowers that apparently got punished.
00:13:49.160
There were news coverage that didn't activate anything.
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There must have been a, one assumes that the, the, the legal process within the state was
00:14:04.560
But, if you have an independent journalist, who in this case made a big splash on X, the
00:14:13.260
combination of X plus a really, you know, aggressive, independent journalist might get you something.
00:14:24.160
So, the way Shemath put it was, he said, we may be witnessing the Cambrian explosion that creates
00:14:32.020
Doge 2.0, completely decentralized, gonzo journalism, exposing fraud all over the country.
00:14:44.460
So, if, if, if young people see that Nick Shirley, 22 years old, um, made a big, a big dent in the universe,
00:14:54.100
and if they see that he monetized it, well, you could do a lot more of it.
00:15:02.600
Anyway, meanwhile, uh, one of the Californian politicians, Ro Khanna is still pushing on this
00:15:13.880
idea of a wealth tax, where they would confiscate, you know, one to 5%, I guess, uh, but it would
00:15:23.580
always be 5% when you're done, of the wealth of billionaires in California.
00:15:28.120
And, uh, I'm kind of, uh, I'm kind of entertained by this, because I thought Ro Khanna was one
00:15:37.440
of the smart ones, but he's not acting like it on this topic.
00:15:43.640
And then I, I did a little research to find out if, you know, maybe his buddy Massey had
00:15:53.060
Um, but Massey's kind of sticking with, you know, just lower taxes is better, so I think he's staying
00:16:00.580
with the generic, um, but some of the billionaires like Lucky Palmer are trying to explain to him
00:16:07.060
that there's a reason that people like Larry Page and Peter Thiel are already planning to leave
00:16:13.340
California, reportedly, reportedly, so I was wondering if there's no way to avoid this,
00:16:23.900
is there a way to turn it into something smarter?
00:16:27.580
And I gave you some suggestions yesterday, but I have a better one.
00:16:32.700
So part of the problem is that the billionaires are not necessarily liquid,
00:16:37.660
and they're, they're a better allocator of funds than the government is.
00:16:43.900
And it feels like theft, um, if you just confiscate their wealth.
00:16:50.540
And there, there's a line that you can't cross, or at least you can't cross it too quickly,
00:16:56.700
where, where the people who are giving up their money move from, well, I hate paying high taxes,
00:17:03.740
of course, to wait a minute, you're actually stealing. And this is, this crosses that line.
00:17:11.980
So even if Ro Khanna is right, that people like Peter Thiel and Larry Page, maybe they can easily
00:17:22.060
afford it. Maybe they wouldn't change their financial decisions. But psychologically,
00:17:30.140
they're going to say, you're stealing from me. And if I were in that situation, I wish I were actually,
00:17:38.860
if I were in that situation, I would say, I don't care that you think it won't change my decisions.
00:17:45.740
You're stealing from me. And I'm going to stop you from stealing.
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It would be sort of like if a pickpocket, if a pickpocket stuck his hand in your pants,
00:17:57.900
you wouldn't argue that the pickpocket has a good use for the money.
00:18:03.020
Right? You would argue, get your hand out of my pants.
00:18:06.060
So they're in the hands and the pants phase now.
00:18:22.860
Yeah, it's stealing. All right. Let me slow down a little bit.
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There's an opinion that I had on the Somalian theft that I had not seen before yesterday.
00:18:46.300
And I'd never spoken it because it would have sounded racist.
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But time goes by. And we now have a little more free speech than we used to.
00:19:00.300
And I saw posts by cynical publicists that matches what I thought to be the case.
00:19:07.820
And this is not racist. This is about culture. All right. But, you know, 10 minutes ago,
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before we had free speech, you would have been accused of being racist, even though
00:19:22.940
this has nothing to do with race. And the opinion is this, as cynical publicist points out.
00:19:30.380
So he spent a lot of time in his life in Africa and the Middle East. And what he tells us is this,
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and I already knew this, but I wouldn't have said it out loud, that there are some cultures
00:19:46.220
particularly African cultures and Somalia in particular, in which the concept of fraud
00:19:52.780
is not even a concept. How many of you knew that? Now, remember, this is about their culture,
00:20:02.700
nothing about race. Some African cultures, and the only ones I'm sure about are Somalia,
00:20:09.820
the tribe comes first. And there's not really even a question of fraud. So for example, the way I heard
00:20:20.060
it was, if you hired a Somalian to work at your convenience store, and a, you know, let's say some
00:20:30.380
white American comes in and says, Hey, can you give me the stuff for free? The Somalian would say,
00:20:37.740
no, you have to buy it. But if someone from the Somalian tribe, like literally same tribe,
00:20:47.020
walked in and said, Hey, I'm gonna, I'm gonna take this food here. The Somalian behind the counter
00:20:54.780
would say, have a good day. And would not think, this is the weird part, would not think any crime
00:21:02.940
had happened. Because they don't have a concept that if you're helping your tribe,
00:21:09.180
how could that be wrong? Now, that's sort of mind blowing the first time you hear it. But I've
00:21:17.100
heard this a while ago. And I, yeah, you see why I wouldn't bring it up. But at the moment,
00:21:23.740
you can actually say that out loud. And I think, I think it's useful to understand that if you import as
00:21:31.740
a philosophy or a point of view, that's that different from the one we have, and, and you get
00:21:46.700
enough of them, there's just no way that's gonna work out. Right? So you could argue whether their,
00:21:54.060
their philosophy is better than ours. But you can't argue that they work together. You can't argue that
00:22:00.460
you can just say, well, you know, you guys can work together. There's no conflict here. You can't.
00:22:06.460
That those, you would have to work as hard as you can to make sure that you, you know,
00:22:14.940
ship them back to wherever that would be appropriate in their minds. Then they can do whatever they want.
00:22:21.340
And it wouldn't affect you. But as long as we have a concept of fraud in this country,
00:22:27.580
you don't want to water that down with people who don't even think it's a concept.
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And then I remind you, this has nothing to do with race, everything to do with some pockets of,
00:22:44.380
Well, you've been hearing in social media that the cuts to USAID are killing people. Have you heard that?
00:22:51.660
Yeah. So a lot of people on the left, presumably people who are benefiting from this money laundering
00:22:58.700
operation, I would call it. Um, they're all gonna die if they have their funding cut. Well,
00:23:06.700
Mike Surnevich points out that, uh, anyone believing those USAID cuts leads to death stories
00:23:14.940
is too stupid to function. Okay. That gets right to it. Although the obvious question, if it were true,
00:23:22.620
why didn't the left wing billionaires fill the shorefall? Why is it the moral duty of working
00:23:28.700
Americans to fund Africa's population growth? Well, that gets right at it, doesn't it?
00:23:36.380
Yeah, that would be a perfectly reasonable thing. I do not believe the stories of people dying because
00:23:42.460
the aid got caught. Elon Musk weighed in agreeing with Surneau and he said that the stories of the
00:23:50.700
people dying. He said it was completely false. He goes on and says, Bill Gates is pushing this lie,
00:23:57.740
despite having over 80 billion dollars in his NGO that he could easily spend to save these alleged
00:24:04.780
lives that are being lost. Why doesn't he? Bill Gates is a liar. Always has been. Well, that bad blood
00:24:13.500
between Musk and Gates, here's not getting any better. So I saw New York Post is reporting that, uh,
00:24:23.660
George Soros's family has donated a whole bunch of money to, uh, Letitia James. You know, you know,
00:24:31.020
Letitia James of law fairing against Trump and now getting law fair to sell. And this made me wonder,
00:24:40.220
since we've watched that every time there's money involved, big money, and every time it's not well
00:24:49.020
audited, and every time you have lots of people involved, what happens? Well, you've already heard me
00:25:00.220
say it three times today. It guarantees that there's fraud. So here's the interesting thing.
00:25:09.260
Don't you think that George Soros is being massively defrauded or fraud? That he's being massively
00:25:17.820
frauded of his own money, which is kind of interesting. We, we have some evidence of that
00:25:24.700
really strong events because Soros funded black lives matter and some large amount of that funding
00:25:33.580
ended up in mansions and luxury cars. So what percent of all the money that George Soros has given
00:25:43.660
to not just prosecutors, but to various entities turned out to be money laundered and stolen from him.
00:25:51.820
You remember I, you remember I brought this up maybe two years ago, and I was speculating that there's
00:26:00.860
no possible way that George Soros knows where his money is going. Because, you know, and then later,
00:26:09.260
even after I speculated that he didn't know where his money was going, we found that the black lives matter
00:26:15.820
was basically a fake organization and massively stolen money. But not just other donated money,
00:26:25.660
but George Soros's money. And I speculated that Alex Soros might have been not capable of auditing where
00:26:35.340
his money was going. Now that turns out to be somewhat of an unfair opinion on my part, because it's not
00:26:45.100
limited to Alex Soros not being able to watch where his money goes. All of these frauds in all of these
00:26:52.780
states suggest that nobody can ever tell where the money goes. The military can't tell you where the money
00:26:59.580
went. You know, nobody can. So what were the odds that the Soros organization was the only thing
00:27:09.820
that could tell where his money was going and that was going to the right place? None. There was no chance
00:27:18.380
that Soros was not being ripped off by his own team.
00:27:21.180
No chance. Now, I do think that the smaller amounts that he was giving to prosecutors probably
00:27:31.420
was well spent. It was a smaller amounts. You could tell whether they got elected or not.
00:27:38.300
You know, maybe the audit is less important in that case. But I'll bet you even the prosecutors were
00:27:43.420
stealing his money. Do you think that Letitia James used 100 percent of the Soros money for legitimate
00:27:52.860
election reasons? Nope. Probably not. I don't know what she used it for. But if you look at the
00:28:01.580
totality of her body of work, if she could steal it, I'll bet she was. Now, under that filter, which
00:28:12.540
every one of you agrees with I know, what do you think Uma Abedin is doing married to Alex Soros?
00:28:21.980
Is it possible that the Clinton camp was well aware that Soros' money was basically being stolen?
00:28:31.500
And could it be that the addition of Uma was to add some fiscal discipline
00:28:38.300
so that the Democrats could either make sure it was going to the right place for the first time,
00:28:45.980
or to make sure more of it went to Clinton-related stuff?
00:28:52.860
So it changes everything, doesn't it? Once you realize that 100 percent of big money
00:28:58.300
activities are fraudulent, then you could put that filter on Soros, and you can see him as not just
00:29:07.500
a bad guy. If you don't like what he's funding, he's a bad guy. But he absolutely has to be a victim.
00:29:16.220
He has to be a victim. Because there's no way that these same bunch of criminals are going to let all that
00:29:22.780
money go to where it was meant to go when nobody's watching. So that might give you a laugh.
00:29:31.820
All right. Saw a story in Wired that the dollar is ending its dominance. And an example of that is
00:29:41.420
that the dollar used to make up 72% of global reserves in 1999, but now it's then 58%. And other currencies are
00:29:52.940
used as part of the reserves. But I ask you this, who would want to have a currency
00:30:00.940
of some other country? Which country would you trust their currency more than the United States?
00:30:09.340
Now I totally understand why you wouldn't trust the dollar, because it's getting inflated, blah, blah, blah.
00:30:17.020
But in order for the dollar not to become a global reserve, you'd have to have an alternative.
00:30:25.660
What would that be? But would you trust any other one country to be strong enough to protect your
00:30:33.660
money? So here's what I think. I think that the other currencies are being held
00:30:38.860
strictly as a diversification play. Because the US dollar, as bad as it is,
00:30:47.260
and it's definitely getting worse, there's not really any one currency you'd ever want to own
00:30:53.900
to make up for that risk. So unless you move to crypto where money becomes worthless because of AI,
00:31:03.180
which is possible, it seems to me that they will always need a healthy percentage of the US dollar
00:31:10.220
for the global reserves, and that if they own anything else, such as the BRICS, etc., they would do it strictly for diversification.
00:31:21.500
And that's just my thought about that. Well, Putin, we'll talk about Ukraine. So Trump met with Zelensky
00:31:34.540
and discussed some ideas about ending the war. I'll tell you how to end it in a minute. But there's a report
00:31:40.460
that Putin, the same day that Trump and Zelensky were meeting, he was doing some public stuff dressed in
00:31:47.980
his military uniform. Now, the speculation is, given that Putin typically wears a suit,
00:31:56.380
that if he's appearing in public in a military uniform, he's signaling to Trump and to everybody else
00:32:03.900
that he's not done militarily, which presumably is part of the leverage for any negotiations.
00:32:10.860
And so we show that Russia doesn't have an incentive to settle as an incentive to keep going because
00:32:20.620
it's making, you know, slow but, you know, definite gains. And it can do it as long as it wants. And
00:32:28.220
that Putin's in war mode and he's not in necessarily peace mode. So maybe. That's probably a good
00:32:40.860
thing. Yeah, that would be a smart persuasion play. But speaking of persuasion, let's talk about
00:32:48.140
what might be happening there with Ukraine. So here's something that Trump said I thought was
00:32:53.580
interestingly persuasive. When asked if they're making progress, he always claims yes, even even when
00:33:02.940
it's now, which is good persuasion. So even if he believed they were not making progress,
00:33:10.860
it would be smarter, if he wanted progress someday, to say that they are. Because he could actually
00:33:17.500
talk people into thinking he might be making progress, even if they're involved in the progress,
00:33:23.420
even if they're involved and they don't see it. So if he just keeps repeating, we're making progress,
00:33:30.620
then even if they had not made progress, people are going to start to think,
00:33:35.020
well, he thinks we're making progress. Maybe we're making progress. And if people start thinking
00:33:43.660
that progress is happening, it makes it much easier for progress to happen. If people believe
00:33:49.820
that nobody believes there was progress, then they would have all the freedom in the world to say, well,
00:33:56.140
I don't see any progress. Where's the progress? But if somebody that prominent says, oh, yeah,
00:34:02.380
we're making progress. Look at that progress. I don't have the details yet, but progress all over the
00:34:08.060
place. So persuasion wise, he's right on point. And then he said, his exact words were that the war is
00:34:20.300
either going to end or it's going to go on for a long time, which I laugh. Nobody would say it that
00:34:28.380
way. Right? That is such a Trumpian sentence. It'll either end or it's going to go on for a long time.
00:34:37.420
So what he's done there is he's shown that the alternative is what nobody wants. And he turned it
00:34:43.580
into a binary. Well, two possibilities. We either get something done, you know, kind of quickly,
00:34:51.420
or it just goes on for a long time, which nobody wants. Again, good persuasion.
00:35:04.940
So he actually, Trump actually said the negotiations are reaching their final stages.
00:35:09.820
But that could be one of two things. Final, as in, we're going to stop trying. And then it goes on for
00:35:16.860
a long time. Or finally, they get a deal. But it's open ended. All right, let's talk about
00:35:25.580
where it is. So apparently, the US has offered a 15 year security guarantee. And Zelensky wants more,
00:35:37.580
up to as much as 50 years. Here's the first way to talk a minute to 50 years.
00:35:46.060
We cannot predict anything in 15 years, much less 50. There's no such thing as a 50 year guarantee.
00:35:56.380
So as long as he can ask for it, but even if we wanted to give it, it's not possible,
00:36:04.060
because it doesn't exist. There's no such thing as a 50 year guarantee, when people can just
00:36:13.020
change their mind in the next 50 years. So I would first of all say that even the 15 year,
00:36:20.860
1-5, guarantee is kind of meaningless, which means that Trump is giving up something of no value
00:36:27.980
value, to get something of value, which would be a peace deal. That is so Trumpian.
00:36:36.780
So Trump is creating this psychological asset, called the security guarantee for 15 years,
00:36:45.260
that can't exist, because all it takes is one of the people to change their mind. There's not really
00:36:54.620
anything that would change that from happening. So what do you do? Well, I wonder if the 15 years
00:37:05.020
is really designed to get past Putin's lifestyle, I'm sorry, lifespan. So how old is Putin? 70-ish.
00:37:17.980
So if you add 15 years to Putin's lifespan, what are the odds he's still going to be here,
00:37:25.820
So it might be that privately, they could say, all right, it's not really about Russia versus the US,
00:37:33.980
it's about Putin versus the US. And we don't know what follows Putin, but if we could wait him out,
00:37:43.580
we have a whole different world. Then on top of that, point out that we've entered the AI age.
00:37:51.900
So it used to be that if you made a 15-year prediction, well, you really didn't have a chance
00:38:00.300
of being accurate, because nobody could do that. But in the age of AI, it is absurd to imagine you
00:38:09.660
could say what's going to happen after 15 years. Somebody said that if you put a 15-year timer on it,
00:38:16.700
you're really just putting a deadline on it, and then Russia will attack after the 15 years.
00:38:23.500
You don't know what 15 years looks like. You have no way to know what the world looks like in five
00:38:30.940
years. So to make a 15-year plan, or to make your plan based on what might happen in 15 years,
00:38:39.180
15 years is complete nonsense. It's nonsense. So how in the world can I get to a security guarantee
00:38:51.260
when you can't predict anything, and it would be absurd to even try? Well, here's where the reframe
00:38:58.380
comes in. Although this would be applying to the disputed zones, not the entire Ukraine,
00:39:09.340
this looks to me like a Jared Kushner idea, because I don't know if you know this, but Jared Kushner
00:39:17.820
has read my book, Win Bigley, which teaches persuasion. And you know that he did the
00:39:27.820
Abrams Accords, Abraham Accords, which essentially reframed the Middle East into an economic opportunity.
00:39:37.980
And so we see him, I'm sure this is him more than Wyckoff, although Wyckoff is very good.
00:39:45.180
So Wyckoff may have easily agreed with this. But I'll bet you that Jared is behind the idea
00:39:52.460
of reframing the situation and calling, this is our proposal, well, US proposal, I guess,
00:40:00.060
to designate the disputed areas on the border as free economic zones. So again, you would reframe it
00:40:10.540
from a war zone to a free economic zone. And then if you can get that reframe, you can make people
00:40:18.940
think past the sale. The sale is, you know, stop fighting. But if you say it's going to be a free
00:40:25.020
economic zone, then people start asking, well, but who's going to administer it? How would that work?
00:40:32.780
Who would get what? So that would make you think past the war. And as long as people are putting
00:40:41.100
their time on both sides, you would need Russia to at least engage in the conversation.
00:40:46.940
If you can get them to engage in the conversation of what that would look like,
00:40:51.740
then the reframe starts working. And I think Jared is the only one smart enough
00:40:59.740
who would have that sensibility that that would be the really the only way you can,
00:41:03.740
it really is the only way that this could work. So let's do that.
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00:41:43.180
Let's do a little speculation about what that would look like if they did. So again,
00:41:49.980
here I'm helping out by thinking past the sale, the sale being stop fighting and think about how you
00:41:59.420
could both make money. So I guess Zelensky said that Kyiv, Ukraine, would be the ones to administer those areas,
00:42:12.060
and forces would be withdrawn, so it'd be a non-military area, but that Ukraine would administer.
00:42:20.220
Now, what are the odds that Russia would agree that it would be administered by Ukraine? None.
00:42:29.740
There's no chance of that. So let's let's call that a starting position. So what would it look like
00:42:37.180
if someone who's not Ukraine administered it? Oops. Well, I don't know that you'd want the United States
00:42:46.780
to administer it, but that would start looking like a security guarantee if we did. Right? Because the US
00:42:55.500
would be counted on to protect its own interests more than it would be counted on to protect some other
00:43:03.500
country's interests, even an ally. So if we could say the US will administer this, but we would also
00:43:11.900
take a cut maybe of resources or something like that, so that so we'd have some reason to administer it,
00:43:19.740
and we'd have something to lose if things started going sideways.
00:43:26.780
I would also wonder if you could propose making it the first AI-administered
00:43:35.740
country or area. Suppose you went to Russia and you said, we're going to get some independent entity
00:43:44.540
to build us the first AI-administered economic zone. Again, you're making people think past the sale
00:43:55.420
of fighting to, wait a minute, could AI do that? And I think it could.
00:44:03.260
So in other words, you want to take as many humans out of it, because the humans are all the problem,
00:44:09.420
right? And you say, the United States will help you, maybe with the help of, I don't know, Switzerland
00:44:18.620
or United Nations or something. So you put together some kind of coalition of humans who primarily would
00:44:26.780
make sure that the AI administered. So the reframe here is, we're not administering it, the AI is.
00:44:36.860
You know, you'd be lucky if you had an AI administering you, because it gets rid of the fraud.
00:44:43.180
Oh, what's the biggest problem in Ukraine? Fraud. What's the biggest problem in Russia?
00:44:51.340
Fraud. What's the one thing that you might be able to tamp down with AI? Fraud.
00:44:59.340
Fraud. So the way you get in is you say, the biggest problem with a new economic zone is it'll just
00:45:07.740
become a criminal organization. But we will help you administer the AI. So we're not administering the
00:45:17.740
zone. We would be managing the AI. And then the AI would be continuously checking with citizens,
00:45:26.860
finding out, yeah, doing audits. The AI would do the audits. The AI would keep everything organized.
00:45:32.940
The AI would collect taxes. Or maybe it's a no tax zone. It seems like it would be easy to get a
00:45:41.980
referendum to do this with the people who live there. If you said, how about no taxes?
00:45:48.700
Maybe they have no taxes now. I don't know. Who controls the AI? That is the right question.
00:45:58.220
Control is not the word you want to use. You want to say that something like manage.
00:46:05.900
So you would get the US and maybe a few other countries to manage. And it would include Ukraine.
00:46:16.540
And it would include Russia. So you'd have, you know, the Russian bubble up. And so the US would,
00:46:23.660
let's say, manage the technology. But it would do it with, you know, open,
00:46:30.460
it would have to have pretty open access technology so that anybody can to audit it.
00:46:38.940
But if you're asking those questions, you're close to a deal. All right. So
00:46:48.300
nothing normal is going to solve this. So if you say we're going to have an AI administered
00:46:55.260
free economic zone, and we're going to do that to get rid of the fraud. And we're going to use that as
00:47:04.860
our, let's say we're going to use that as our economic, no, as our security guarantee. So the
00:47:13.340
security guarantee would be we would remove the reasons for war. We'd remove the reasons. But we'd
00:47:20.780
have, we'd have enough of a investment that we would try pretty hard to make sure that nothing went wrong.
00:47:30.140
So, and then the other weasel thing that would work is that you could let Russia say we won,
00:47:39.580
and we were getting everything we want, because the people are protected. We'll call it part of Russia.
00:47:45.260
Russia. But Ukraine just say we won, because it's not part of Russia, it's part of Ukraine.
00:47:51.740
But it would really be something that's neither. There would be this sort of a special economic zone.
00:47:59.660
Anyway, you could also, you could also offer to Russia that the success of the special economic
00:48:09.100
zone is the only path toward normalizing relations with both Europe and the US. So if you said to Russia,
00:48:18.620
here's the deal. The one only way we're going to look at going back to buying your energy, Europe,
00:48:28.620
and the only way we're going to go back to, you know, more of a normal relationship,
00:48:34.060
is that if the special economic zone works, that would be a pretty good security guarantee.
00:48:41.180
Because like I said, you could never make, you know, a 15-year security guarantee. It's absurd.
00:48:51.820
All right, what do you think? Well, so the point is, when Trump says we're getting close to
00:48:58.300
a deal, I think it has everything to do with how they reframe it.
00:49:08.220
In other news, Iranian hackers allegedly got into Netanyahu's chief of staff's phone
00:49:17.580
and dropped a video, and they published a video from his phone of some kind of private meeting.
00:49:23.740
And it made me wonder, if Iran had access to his chief of staff's phone,
00:49:32.300
um, why would they drop that video? And the smart people say that that's a
00:49:39.100
sort of a classic thing you would do to show that they have worse stuff than the stuff they presented.
00:49:47.660
So it'd be sort of a sort of a blackmail situation where they say,
00:49:52.700
well, if we have this video from the chief of staff's phone, imagine what we haven't shown you.
00:50:01.260
So, I don't know, I have some question how much, you know, whether they have more than that.
00:50:06.300
Yeah, it would embarrass them. But I don't know if it's a big deal or not.
00:50:23.020
I've got some healthcare worker coming to do some stuff in a few minutes.
00:50:30.220
All right, I made it through. So I apologize for the earlier attempt.
00:50:39.340
But I thought you might miss me. So I came back.
00:50:45.740
If you missed my explanation earlier, I had to bail out on my first podcast because I had a
00:50:51.660
coughing attack. And there's nothing you can do about it but wait it out.
00:50:56.700
So I waited it out as much as I could and took another shot at it.
00:51:10.220
I'm going to go and grab some breakfast before my arrival of my healthcare nurse.
00:51:21.580
people who come to the house for healthcare reasons.
00:51:31.100
Thanks for understanding. Thanks for coming back a second time.