Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3061 CWSA 01⧸03⧸26

00:00:00.960 come on in we'll check our comments make sure they're working on locals

00:00:11.120 boom there we go

00:00:16.480 come on in

00:00:21.280 it is good to see all of you i apologize again for my sketchy voice

00:00:27.040 i will do the best i can

00:00:33.120 all right once we get about a thousand people in here oh looks like we have what only three people on

00:00:43.520 youtube all right come on in lots of news today but shall we start

00:00:56.080 with the simultaneous sip that's a yes all right people if you want to join the simultaneous sip

00:01:05.760 all you need is a copper mugger a glass of tanker chalice of stein a canteen jugger flask a vessel of

00:01:12.480 any kind fill it with your favorite liquid highlight coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure

00:01:18.720 the dopamine hit it today the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous

00:01:25.200 sip and it happens now

00:01:33.280 oh that was really good

00:01:36.400 but let's talk about the news so i assume all of you know by now that there was some action in

00:01:47.760 venezuela so i'll give you a little background on it as people storm in and then we'll talk about

00:01:56.960 what does it all mean

00:01:58.000 but i should tell you that after the show so after the podcast uh owen gregorian will be hosting

00:02:09.440 um a spaces after party now the plan was to um which is very nice of owen to ask people how i had

00:02:18.720 how i had influenced people but i think the venezuela story is going to overwhelm that

00:02:24.880 and that would be okay with me so don't feel bad if you think talking about venezuela is more

00:02:32.000 interesting so i woke up this morning thinking you know maybe it'd be good for me not to be in the

00:02:38.080 headlines for once because i've been in the headlines for a few days and uh that look on x and dilbert is

00:02:46.400 trending venezuela gets attacked and dilbert is still trending on x

00:02:52.480 so i guess i'll have to go with it all right so you know i've often tell you that if trump has

00:03:01.680 multiple options for doing something he typically picks the option that looks the strongest

00:03:09.840 and he did it again so i'm starting to think that you could predict his actions

00:03:15.040 actions fairly fairly accurately by just saying what's the strongest thing you could do now you

00:03:22.320 might say that the strongest thing would be to send in the whole military but i would say stronger

00:03:28.640 than that would be to send in special forces of some of some type and grab the leader of the country and

00:03:37.200 take him back for uh for legal process to me that seems like the strongest thing i think so that's what

00:03:47.200 happened so late at night um trump authorized the military specifically some helicopters so i guess we

00:03:58.000 sat on our 160th special operations aviation regiment called soar known as the night stalkers so i guess

00:04:08.160 we went in strong uh there's been a lot of practice a lot of preparation and allegedly

00:04:15.920 no casualties on the american side none now i have not heard if there were casualties on the

00:04:24.880 venice well inside but i imagine there were so trump watched the whole operation from you know some

00:04:34.240 undisclosed place and watch them you know i guess we have the ability to go through metal doors

00:04:44.160 um and get people so maduro and his wife have now been arrested and brought back to america now the

00:04:54.640 all the people who don't know anything about the constitution um are going to be arguing with other

00:05:01.440 people who don't know much about the constitution and i i'm sort of in that category i'm no i'm no

00:05:08.720 constitutional expert when it comes to uh you know what we can and cannot do it militarily but the

00:05:15.920 argument is that this is not a military action that is a legal action and that we can go anywhere

00:05:25.920 to pick up a criminal or a accused criminal

00:05:30.640 alleged criminal and that this should be seen as a department of justice action that happened to be

00:05:39.200 supported by a number of entities including the military so pam bondi is telling us what the charges

00:05:47.600 are so the charges against maduro that the ex-head of venezuela um he's being charged with narco-terrorism

00:05:58.400 conspiracy uh cocaine importation conspiracy possession of machine guns and destructive devices

00:06:07.600 and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices against the united states

00:06:12.960 so that last one's weird but apparently that gives uh that gives enough cover that trump can do what he

00:06:22.400 did but if he had remained there and you know fought militarily and tried to defeat their army or

00:06:29.280 something that would be an entirely different conversation now people who are my age

00:06:36.880 um or in that zone you might remember that the us did this in 1989

00:06:43.440 against the panama leader noriega and we went in but there was some there was violence and death there

00:06:53.040 and we grabbed noriega we brought him back to the united states and he was prosecuted and put in

00:06:59.680 american jail so this has some precedent in the sense that if you can if you can sell it as a

00:07:07.520 a legal system and not a military system you could get away with it

00:07:20.880 yeah there's some precedent that obama went after some individuals so it's different to go after an

00:07:27.600 individual than it is to go after a country all right so apparently the operation was paired with a bunch of

00:07:38.320 strikes on their military and um intelligence operations but that might have been a decoy

00:07:45.360 um is maybe just a suppression suppressive action the reporting which you can't yet trust remember it's

00:07:55.760 still fog of war right fog of war so you can't trust everything you hear about this so be cautious fog of war

00:08:03.840 um but the the reporting at least on fox news is that the venezuelans put up no resistance

00:08:14.800 and then some of them just went home

00:08:17.280 do you believe that do you believe that the venezuelan military put up no resistance

00:08:24.240 and they just sort of walked away maybe i don't know that one's a little hard to believe

00:08:31.440 there may have been some people who walked away all right well so maduro is being in a larger sense

00:08:40.000 accused of being the head of a cartel called the cartel de los souls

00:08:46.320 so the the accusation is that he was never a legitimate leader um so he's it's also

00:08:55.520 is not a true decapitation strike some would say because he was never really the leader of the

00:09:01.840 country legitimately that's more of an argumentative thing all right so there was tons of um coordination

00:09:12.000 between the dea and the military and the cia and the department of justice so that part's impressive

00:09:19.600 and waiting in the wings this is probable or at least possible replacement a woman named maria

00:09:28.320 carina machado who has won the nobel peace prize already for being sort of the opposition but um

00:09:38.720 um she would not really been able to take over the country until maduro was gone so allegedly

00:09:47.200 there will be an election allegedly that election will be unrigged

00:09:54.960 the reality is that especially if trump believes venezuela was involved in rigging our elections and he

00:10:03.040 might i don't know if he does uh there might be a little payback happening here the payback would be

00:10:09.760 oh well good luck with your next election but we're going to make sure that it goes our way and when i say

00:10:17.120 our way i mean america gets a leader that will you know be on our side essentially she will be called a 0.97

00:10:25.120 puppet and maybe that's true feels like it would be yeah marco rubio has told us that maduro is not the

00:10:36.640 legitimate leader so that's kind of important all right um now let's talk about the chessboard

00:10:45.680 this is the part i find fascinating how long will it take before some part of social media says this

00:10:56.080 is all israel and blames israel i woke up this morning thinking well at least this won't be blamed on

00:11:04.240 israel but but it might be it might be blamed on israel we'll take you through it excuse me um so

00:11:20.000 there are a number of chess pieces and one of them is that venezuela and iran have been historically

00:11:30.400 they've supported each other to get around sanctions and to get around other big economic problems so

00:11:38.160 iran would be weakened um by venezuela falling it would lose an ally it would lose one way that they

00:11:46.640 could have made some money in case their other sources got dried up um at the same time by coincidence

00:11:57.440 there's all these uprisings in iran and uh trump has said he would if the if the uh protesters get shot

00:12:08.320 that he would intervene militarily now that didn't sound like as much of a uh it didn't sound like as

00:12:18.000 much of a threat until you see what he just did in venezuela so if you're iran and you're the leaders

00:12:26.320 of iran and you're wondering huh will trump really do that would trump actually attack us and depose our

00:12:35.200 leader well nobody knows it could be a bluff but if you just watched trump go into venezuela as strong

00:12:44.640 as you possibly could it would be reasonable to worry about it if you were iran so could it be that

00:12:54.320 you know that uh trump's timing is either lucky because it would make things go better in iran at

00:13:04.000 least for the american side uh or is that you know is it planned or just purely coincidence

00:13:12.400 i don't know but it's definitely going to make people sorry blah blah blah you know he only did

00:13:18.160 it for israel you know that's coming so that's not my claim by the way so i'm not making the claim

00:13:26.560 that i know why it happened or what the timing was or anything but i do wonder if the only reason

00:13:34.640 is about the drugs because so far the trump administration is making it all about the drugs

00:13:42.000 but i've seen pushback where people say no venezuela is not our biggest problem when it comes to drugs

00:13:50.320 so you wouldn't do all this if it's only about the drugs i don't know you might remember i always say

00:13:56.880 he takes the strongest path so the strongest path would be this so that would predict that uh that

00:14:04.720 maybe it was about the drugs and this is just the strongest path don't know then there's the cuba

00:14:11.600 connection because cuba apparently relies on venezuela for you know some of their um energy slash economic

00:14:21.920 survival i'm a little bit skeptical that cuba will fall because of this but things will get a lot

00:14:31.120 tougher but maybe so my guess is there's not about cuba but it might be just might be one of the side

00:14:41.920 benefits that could happen if you believe that cuba's um government falling is a benefit

00:14:49.120 it would create a lot of pressure for uh the united states however also on the chessboard

00:14:58.000 uh and this is not my own great idea uh it could strengthen trump's support among latino voters

00:15:08.960 so especially the older ones they might say finally somebody did something about venezuela

00:15:15.360 and that would that will weaken cuba and that's what we've been waiting for but i don't think you

00:15:22.640 would do it just for votes again it could be that that would just be a side benefit

00:15:29.840 so what's what's so hard about figuring this out is that all these countries are connected and it's not

00:15:37.120 entirely obvious if uh doing something with one country is intentionally about the other countries

00:15:45.120 or it just works out that way i don't know and then there's the china connection

00:15:51.600 so china gets energy from uh let's see iran supplies 10 to 15 percent of china's oil

00:15:58.960 uh and venezuela supplied or did about five percent of china's oil now if you added them together at the

00:16:07.680 high side would that take china's oil oil oil supply down by 15 20 percent i don't know

00:16:18.400 and and is that a goal or could could china easily replace that much oil maybe they just get more of it

00:16:25.520 from russia or something so i don't know but uh next on the chessboard is mexico

00:16:34.240 so the the head of mexico who is also credibly being accused of being um in the pocket of the cartels

00:16:43.760 is of course reject rejecting this military action and uh but not very hard so there's a there's an

00:16:53.840 objection to it but they're not going crazy about it and it could be that the leader of mexico is

00:17:02.720 wondering if she's next because it does seem to me that if they if the u.s put together a set of uh

00:17:11.200 indictments i guess that's what it would be against maduro don't you think they're also looking at

00:17:18.160 um misbehaving by sean bob the head of mexico don't you think that some part of the u.s machinery

00:17:28.160 already has evidence that she's part of the cartel so she's probably looking at this and say wait are you

00:17:35.120 saying that they're gonna go nab the head of a country because they can they have a good case against

00:17:41.360 that person because that would be her so whether or not we plan to do that it would put a lot of

00:17:49.520 pressure on her to do whatever we wanted so we might say well you know maybe you're next how about

00:17:57.440 you give us a good trade deal or maybe you're next maybe you pay for the wall whatever it is

00:18:04.960 so that's part of the chessboard and then uh colombia which has so far not been part of the military

00:18:13.760 action is probably a bigger source of drugs than venezuela so colombia would be also be in the chess

00:18:22.000 board would also be wondering if they're next and i think they also have a leader who might be

00:18:28.880 implicated as part of a cartel right i think so yeah it puts commanding on notice it basically puts

00:18:38.800 all these countries on notice is so this action has been compared to the fall of the berlin wall

00:18:47.040 in that it could have this ripple effect um that's pro-democracy or at the very least pro uh pro-american

00:18:58.880 is this fun i i hate to say how much fun it is trying to figure out what's going on but there's

00:19:09.840 a lot of moving parts here then let's talk about taiwan also on the chessboard if you were if you were

00:19:17.520 china and you watch what trump is doing right now would you get going and attack taiwan or would you say

00:19:26.720 holy shit we'd better wait at least three years until trump's gone and then figure out what we can

00:19:33.040 do i feel like if china is smart and they are that they say oh step back step back this would not be the 0.95

00:19:41.200 time to piss off trump because he always acts in the strongest path so that they wouldn't be able to

00:19:49.600 count on him standing down i don't know if he was he would attack china if taiwan was attacked but

00:19:59.360 they would have to be worried about it all right apparently the venezuelan defense chief

00:20:07.280 uh put down a quote that said quote we will not surrender we will not surrender

00:20:14.320 your leader is gone you don't need to surrender did we ask you to surrender i don't remember anybody

00:20:23.760 asking but he has to say something all right so you might wonder in the broader context um what is the

00:20:35.680 economic impact of this so i went to grok and asked that you know what's the economic impact on venezuela

00:20:45.040 yeah this situation so apparently you know lots of energy implications uh it would allow other countries to

00:20:55.520 be less able to evade sanctions because venezuela would help other countries evade sanctions if they

00:21:02.720 didn't like america and uh let's see the geopolitical importance this is from grok so i just asked grok

00:21:12.160 you know give me the context um venezuela has been a key part of an anti-american coalition

00:21:21.280 so that would have included you know russia and china uh but if you take out venezuela

00:21:26.080 uh it doesn't take out the whole coalition but it weakens it um we didn't want iran to have some kind

00:21:35.120 of a friendly presence this close to our country and apparently they did because they were friendly

00:21:43.600 with venezuela so if we remove the option for iran to have some kind of a fuller um anti-american

00:21:53.040 presence in our hemisphere that seems like a good idea then there's military importance did you know

00:22:02.400 that iran transferred a drone making technology to venezuela and they're training the venezuelans since

00:22:10.800 2006. um so that's not good so that would weaken uh one way that iran could get at us

00:22:19.760 yes yes my voice does seem raspy you're just noticing a good observation yes my voice is raspy

00:22:32.000 yeah you may not have heard the news all right so um jonathan totally is reminding us that

00:22:41.760 constitutionally this this should be fine but people are going to argue that it isn't

00:22:47.280 all right um there will be lots more developing but did i hit i hit the high points right so i was

00:22:58.240 trying to give you the quick you know chessboard view of it because it's going to be the only news

00:23:04.800 today the news is just going to be about that um however you come here for more than just news about

00:23:12.640 one story so with your permission because i don't have much to add to that besides what i said i'm

00:23:19.440 going to talk about some other fun news stories i know i know this story is so interesting the

00:23:26.960 venezuela one that it's hard to imagine if there's anything else happening but you want to spend a full

00:23:34.000 hour here with me right so we'll do some other stories after i take a sip pause for a sip of whatever you got

00:23:42.480 sip it if you got it

00:23:55.920 all right

00:24:00.320 um so some other stuff i'm going to be at the risk of boring myself but

00:24:07.600 it'll give us something to hang out and talk about okay

00:24:13.840 anyway uh katherine herridge who many of you know as a you know notable important journalist

00:24:23.840 she's talking about why x became the center of real journalism and that the mainstream media is no

00:24:30.640 longer the dominant source of news basically so here's her take on it which i liked

00:24:38.000 that reach meaning who sees what the reach is no longer about cable slots or front pages

00:24:46.960 it's about access to decision makers and business leaders and highly engaged readers in the same

00:24:53.040 place at the same time and that's why independent journalism didn't just survive the collapse of

00:24:59.360 trusted corporate media it moved to x and took the audience with it

00:25:03.680 uh now she says there's no question that x is the platform with the greatest reach now i agree with all

00:25:11.280 that and here's the part i didn't fully understand that independent media could never have grown

00:25:21.680 unless they also had access to important people and that they also had a way to

00:25:27.680 publish to everybody who wanted to see them so x allowed them to have a way to get to everybody

00:25:34.480 so that was automatically going to be better than you know a media source you have to watch a commercial

00:25:42.240 i would add to this that on x it's very easy to not see any commercials so if you give me a choice of

00:25:50.000 looking at the news with commercials or looking at the news without commercials that's not a contest

00:25:58.720 right so x has an automatic you know business business model advantage but the part about access to

00:26:07.600 decision makers that is entirely because the podcasters did a good job and they did a good job of

00:26:14.400 networking and especially on x uh they would get boosted so do you think that benny johnson would have

00:26:23.920 had such a big impact uh or megan kelly or your more controversial tucker carlson do you think any of

00:26:32.320 that would have happened without x i don't think so and then once you get some credibility because you're

00:26:38.720 doing good work then suddenly you can ask president trump for an interview and he says yes or you could

00:26:45.760 ask you know lower level um admin people and they'll say yes because they're not going to be um

00:26:53.440 they're not going to be stabbed in the back like the mainstream media would and they have huge audiences

00:26:59.760 now bigger than the networks so yeah that's a good observation to katherine herridge and it doesn't

00:27:06.080 look like there's any way that's going to reverse right and again like so many stories you have to add

00:27:15.520 to it it's only possible because of elon musk thinking about how many stories you have to say that about

00:27:22.560 now all the doge stuff all the fraud stuff um only possible because elon exists and was doing the right

00:27:32.240 thing well here's a story from the college fix that more than half of uc berkeley disability accommodations

00:27:42.880 are based on emotional reasons emotional reasons half right so there are lots of legitimate reasons for

00:27:53.440 people with disabilities to want accommodations so if you want to ramp that's a good reason if you need a 1.00

00:28:00.800 wheelchair access yeah those are perfectly acceptable and desired uh accommodations but apparently people

00:28:10.960 are coming in with psycho psychological and emotional disabilities uh one student famously got a got

00:28:18.640 approval to bring his mother to class uh and it's the most disabled people registered at uc berkeley

00:28:28.400 since they started collecting data now the reason i bring this up is not this particular story the

00:28:35.760 reason i bring it up is that uh looking for scams and frauds is now the new national sport so at least

00:28:43.920 in my bubble every day i wake up there's somebody searching for a new scam or uncovering a fraud

00:28:49.680 i'm really happy about that because that's the only way any of this gets fixed the only way it gets

00:28:57.200 fixed is if people start thinking it's important to find fraud even i didn't think it was important

00:29:05.280 a few years ago if you'd asked me a few years ago i would have said yeah i think it was said something

00:29:10.960 like governor divine to wine or divine to wine said that it was just the cost of doing business

00:29:19.200 you know i would have looked at it like a 7-eleven store and i said yeah of course there's theft

00:29:24.720 yeah 7-eleven store of course there's theft but you know it's not that big a deal

00:29:30.240 but today what we know is that it's the biggest deal it's a existential threat to the entire

00:29:37.120 civilization and if we don't pay attention to it that's on us do you know why we're paying attention

00:29:44.720 to it i already gave you a hint his name is elon musk who boosted uh um recent reports well he's boosting

00:29:57.680 a lot of reports from independent media about how bad things are would we be in this situation where

00:30:04.640 people are really really paying attention to fraud if elon musk did not do that or did not exist

00:30:11.760 no i think he is full credit for that again it's really amazing

00:30:18.240 um and then i'm having a problem reading the news lately because there's so many stories that look like

00:30:24.720 what i've already seen but might not be so can you tell me is this a new story or did we already know

00:30:33.680 that according to news nation that the assisted living facilities uh oh gateway funders writing

00:30:40.720 about this um that the assisted living facilities are often just somebody's house and there's no

00:30:48.880 service there at all did we already know that because it feels like a repeat but on the other hand

00:30:56.320 maybe it's just a new place and a new new set of data but in my bubble every time i wake up

00:31:03.840 somebody republican usually is uncovering something fraudulent and that's a good thing

00:31:15.680 next you you may or may not be following the story of act blue

00:31:20.400 if you went onto the street and randomly stop people and said tell me what you know about act blue

00:31:30.960 how many people could answer that question

00:31:32.720 now you're my audience is very uh plugged in so probably half three quarters of you would know

00:31:43.520 what act blue is but if you don't they are a democrat organization that raises money for a variety of

00:31:51.280 democrat candidates but what they do this special is that they take small donations

00:31:58.320 i know i'll get to it i'll get to it they allegedly allegedly take only small donations

00:32:07.520 from american to american sources and then they distribute it to candidates the reality and they're

00:32:15.680 being uh investigated for this uh i believe trump has authorized the investigation uh the reality might

00:32:24.000 be allegedly that they're a fraudulent organization from top to bottom and what they really do is they

00:32:31.120 take large donations maybe from democrat billionaires maybe from overseas and then they pretend with

00:32:40.560 fancy bookkeeping that it came from uh individuals now that would be really really illegal but that's the

00:32:49.840 accusation so um what if and again this falls into that category of every day i wake up and there's new

00:33:02.000 alleged fraud of massive scales we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars here and i do believe

00:33:08.880 that it's been demonstrated correct me if i'm wrong there's plenty of evidence that one person's address

00:33:18.080 has been used multiple times that would be illegal because it means it's not real or that people who

00:33:25.360 are not actively following politics have been dominating allegedly small dollar amounts for years

00:33:32.880 but they don't even know about it if you go to their house and say did you give money to um act blue they

00:33:40.720 would say what's that no they didn't they didn't give any money so even though it's an allegation

00:33:50.240 yeah it's called smurfing um i feel there's a hundred percent chance that they're a massive criminal

00:33:58.720 organization i also wonder if it's big enough that democrats could not win anything without them

00:34:08.160 what would the midterms look like without act blue being able to put big money into people's pockets

00:34:15.520 different right doesn't mean that you know it will go a different direction but it wouldn't be the same

00:34:21.760 so that's happening also good news is being investigated there's an article in hot air by david

00:34:33.280 strong it gets to something i've been saying i didn't know if anybody else would have the same

00:34:39.280 observation but he did it goes like this that

00:34:43.440 it goes like this but the psychology i'm this i'm going to paraphrase this is not what he said exactly

00:35:00.400 but the american um psychology is that things were pretty good and our systems mostly worked and that

00:35:11.040 we were not sitting inside a gigantic fraud well now that we know about the ngos and we know about 0.95

00:35:20.080 the all the somalian fraud our brains are primed in a way they've never been before to imagine mass 0.98

00:35:30.160 conspiracies being true because the the scope of how big the fraud is with the with the fake daycares

00:35:40.560 and everything else the scope of that is so big that once you learned that was a real thing and

00:35:46.880 that it's going on for years years and it's right under people's noses and people can see all the signs

00:35:54.720 you can see the the smoking gun and it didn't matter you know there could be news reports and it didn't

00:36:00.960 matter but now it matters and what does that do this is strom's observation and mine as well

00:36:10.080 what does that new psychology do to how we think about the election integrity

00:36:17.600 it changes it and i think we need a new name for this a name for the phenomenon where there's a whole

00:36:26.080 bunch of bad things happening individually but when you catch them individually they don't seem like a big

00:36:33.280 enough deal to you know change the world so if you looked at the uh let's say the minnesota fraud and

00:36:42.320 let's say you heard a report that there was some fraudulent uh children's charity you would say to

00:36:51.680 yourself well you know shit happens uh they should go to jail but you would think you would be isolated

00:37:00.080 but what really is happening is this it's an immense diversified machine in which you can't even keep

00:37:08.000 track of how many frauds there are within the larger scope of things now i would argue that the pandemic

00:37:18.560 had that same quality that if you looked at the individual bad actors you would notice that there

00:37:27.120 are people lying and maybe people doing things for you know for money etc but you wouldn't necessarily

00:37:34.560 see the scope of it the scope of it was unbelievable and also unbelievable i said it twice because it

00:37:43.760 mattered you wouldn't that's that's the problem i had in the beginning of the pandemic i would hear

00:37:49.840 reports of let's say data that was ignored and i would say yeah that can happen data is ignored somebody

00:37:57.760 would say this study was suppressed and i'd say yeah yeah things happen study could get suppressed but my

00:38:06.480 brain was at the time incapable of imagining the vast scope of the fraud did you have the same issue

00:38:16.400 you could tell that something was wrong and you could see the buckets of the wrongness but you just

00:38:22.400 couldn't wrap your head around how big it was now that's the same as these uh ngo frauds you really

00:38:29.200 couldn't wrap your head around how big it was and therefore you were frozen into inaction

00:38:35.920 well back to david strom's point remember how there were many many claims of election irregularity

00:38:44.800 and i would hear them and i'm guilty of this totally guilty and i would hear a claim

00:38:48.880 and i would say yeah yeah maybe that really did happen maybe it did maybe it didn't but you know

00:38:55.920 it's in this little bucket then you hear another one you say all right well there's more than one

00:39:02.320 it's in this little bucket but it wasn't until maybe this year that we could understand that all the

00:39:09.920 different ways that the election was i think rigged in my opinion that you would never be able to put

00:39:16.880 your head around how massive the attempt at rigging was and so you can't deal with it so you default to

00:39:25.040 well it happens it's in a little bucket if we catch people doing things we'll try to take them to court

00:39:31.680 but it's not really you know it's not about the whole system it is the whole system so there needs

00:39:37.920 to be a name for these gigantic frauds that we can't recognize because we're only seeing the tree

00:39:47.520 and we're not seeing the forest oh wait we already have that all it is is another one of those you can't

00:39:56.320 you can't see the forest for the trees so you look at a tree you're like well you know kind of sucks

00:40:03.440 that that tree is unhealthy hey who cut down that tree but if you're looking at the tree you're

00:40:10.080 missing this the forest that might be a big deal so my recommend my uh prediction for 2026

00:40:20.640 is that the uh our understanding of the size of the election fraud and we might be finding this out

00:40:28.320 through act blue for example is enormous we might find out that it's not a coincidence that electronic

00:40:36.880 electronic voting machines are used in battleground states that might not be a coincidence

00:40:44.160 it could be that one of the benefits of trump will get out of attacking venezuela

00:40:49.440 um barking up the wrong tree it could be that we'll learn if something changes in the leadership of

00:41:00.400 venezuela imagine the imagine a new leader going in and then imagine trump saying all right

00:41:08.240 we we helped install you we are going to be your friend we'll help you rebuild venezuela but you're

00:41:16.000 going to have to tell us did you guys or any venezuelans have anything to do with rigging our systems

00:41:24.000 and then maybe we'll find out so prediction this will be the year we find out that the election was

00:41:33.280 more more than the trees that it was about the whole forest

00:41:37.360 well 2026 has started out interesting uh trump well in many ways but trump uh posted a meme

00:41:51.680 that said we're entering the golden age and also separately that the hunter be the hunted becomes a

00:41:59.440 hunter so those are two big themes for uh 2026. how many of you think i had anything to do with those two

00:42:08.320 things because i've been saying for a while that uh we would be entering the golden age but then the

00:42:18.000 pandemic blew that off track and i've been saying for a while that republicans would be hunted

00:42:25.600 if um if biden had won the election and sure enough they were hunted january 6th etc oh add january 6

00:42:38.160 to the list of things that were too big to understand yeah the whole january 6 insurrection hoax

00:42:46.320 um it's just bigger than we can imagine it could be a hoax but that's what made it invisible

00:42:51.840 yeah the the scale of that hoax when in fact the real insurrection was democrats trying to remove trump

00:43:01.520 but they did such a good job of you know creating a this fake january 6 select committee and hunting down

00:43:09.200 all the the people that they took a thing that um they reversed it essentially they reversed reality

00:43:17.520 because at the time they had the power to do that they were the insurrectionists and the best way they

00:43:24.560 could cover up for the fact that they were the insurrectionists is by accusing the other side of

00:43:29.520 being the insurrectionists and that's what they did almost successfully

00:43:34.720 well believe it or not time for a sip

00:43:52.960 yeah the j6 thing was professionally produced that's another hint that it wasn't based on facts

00:44:00.400 well amazingly pg e the power company here in uh california is for the fourth time in two years

00:44:11.040 going to lower the rates so apparently they you know pulled a bunch of moves that allowed them to lower

00:44:20.000 the rates so good for them i was not aware of that but it will take it will allow governor newsom to say

00:44:28.720 that he lower costs now as far as i know newsom had nothing to do with the fact that pg and e lowered

00:44:36.320 their costs but whoever's in charge always gets the blame whoever's in charge always gets the credit

00:44:43.200 and if if californians think or even if the national if he runs nationally he's going to be able to say he

00:44:51.440 lowered rates and there's no indication that anybody but png he should he was behind the lowering of

00:44:58.640 the rates but i'm glad they did it's not a huge amount of money so but it's just now up it seems

00:45:06.320 like a big deal if it just doesn't go up new york post is reporting that a court has ruled in favor of

00:45:15.920 the second amendment uh an open carry in california so i guess there was a law um limiting open carry

00:45:26.240 of firearms and the uh which court was it the u.s court of appeals but the ninth circuit by two to one

00:45:35.680 said that was too anti-constitutional am i wrong in thinking that the ninth circuit is usually liberal

00:45:45.200 leading that's true right i don't really follow the course that much but can you confirm this in the

00:45:52.720 comments that the ninth circuit usually is left leading is that true um anyway so it surprised me

00:46:06.320 that they got a two to one ruling in favor of the second amendment i would say all right

00:46:14.480 um i'm going to follow this next story under the issue okay i'm getting confirmation thank you

00:46:25.040 yep well that's sort of a surprise um did you know news newsmax is reporting this that the department of

00:46:34.960 justice uh i think you knew this part uh as requested minnesota and uh i think 21 states in total they

00:46:46.320 look like they're all lefty states i think they're all blue states i'm just looking at it quickly

00:46:53.680 either all or most are blue states but they've been asked by the trump administration to produce

00:47:00.640 voting records because we want to see if there are any fake uh voters on the rolls what do you think

00:47:10.160 happens when you ask for voting records oh by the way i forgot to tell you the act blue

00:47:16.800 they changed their accounting so you can't tell what they were doing so as soon as the uh as soon as act

00:47:23.840 blue was investigated they immediately changed how they record things so you wouldn't be able to tell

00:47:30.720 if they're up to anything bad now that's pretty on the nose isn't it yeah by the way marcella

00:47:40.000 remind me that the on the nose thing is something i use a lot on the nose so that would certainly suggest

00:47:48.720 a possibility of guilt but what do you think is going to happen when the states are asked quite

00:47:56.080 reasonably quite reasonably to produce records that show that their voters are real eligible voters well

00:48:04.240 we don't know yet but they have 15 days to produce it and i'm going to guess it will be less produced than

00:48:11.280 the epstein files i do not think they'll produce it i think they will do everything they can

00:48:17.200 and lose the records you know maybe maybe what will really happen is uh they'll say oh we lost those

00:48:25.200 records all 50. i think all 21 states are going to suddenly have a problem oh yeah we had those records

00:48:34.400 but yeah they they weren't backed up but what i don't expect to happen is that the federal government

00:48:41.920 will get the records and why well obviously why because it's fraudulent obviously so i don't think

00:48:52.720 there's any other way this could go there's no way they're going to give them records that prove that

00:48:58.080 their their voters are not real right there isn't any chance that they'll do that so they're either going

00:49:06.320 to fight it infinitely in court or they're going to have a have a water leak or something but we're not

00:49:12.880 going to see this here's a weird story um i talk about this a lot lately but you know the defense um

00:49:22.560 the defense company called anduril that palmer lucky um is the head of apparently he's made the claim

00:49:31.360 the anduril has some kind of technology called the anduril's seabed sentry and he says and i quote i

00:49:40.080 swear i'm not making this up he says i can know where all the whales are the submarines boats where all

00:49:46.560 the divers are do you believe that do you believe that he has in place technology that can identify

00:49:54.880 where all the whales are and all the boats wouldn't that make it um he also says submarines now obviously

00:50:03.440 there's a great military value to that but here's my question are submarines stealthy enough that we or

00:50:12.480 anybody else could make one that's invisible to this technology or can you see everything

00:50:19.680 and if you can see everything does that mean we already know that there are no alien bases under

00:50:27.040 the ocean because i don't believe he believes there are alien bases maybe one of the reasons he doesn't

00:50:34.320 believe it is that he can see everything under the ocean and if any alien craft had had enter

00:50:42.080 um he would have seen it um he would have seen it is that possible oh that's a really interesting little story

00:50:52.400 well the washington examiner naomi lynn limb is writing about how the midterms usually go to the party

00:51:01.360 that's not in power and uh trump has has questioned why that happens why did it why does the other side

00:51:11.280 almost always not always but almost always how do they almost always win the midterm

00:51:18.080 and i don't know if we know the answer to that exactly it might be psychological it might be because

00:51:24.560 people only cared about the head of the ticket and if there's no presidential race you know the

00:51:30.720 devoted people don't show up is that it might be some combination of things but here's the interesting

00:51:38.240 part so his um chief of staff susie wiles who gets a lot of credit for being smart they say they want 0.98

00:51:48.080 to put trump on the ballot you know in the conceptual way not the actual way and her thinking is that the

00:51:56.320 democrats are going to put him on the ballot by just saying you know you have to thwart him or defeat him

00:52:03.760 because he's still president and the best way to do that would be to you know elect a bunch of

00:52:10.320 democrats in congress so susie says she wants to put trump on the ballot i think she says she hasn't

00:52:18.240 told trump yet but what she wants is for trump to um campaign like he is on the ballot but you know he'd be

00:52:26.800 campaigning for her surrogates and proxies and stuff um that will probably happen but in this story was a

00:52:34.320 little piece of data that i think was contradicted later in the story but i'd never heard this before

00:52:41.600 uh that people will vote for who they think understands their problem not who has the best solution

00:52:51.280 have you ever heard that it's the first time i've ever heard that and i i question whether that's true

00:53:00.400 but even if the republicans came up with a great plan um if they didn't show that they really cared

00:53:07.920 or really understood let's say affordability so you could argue that if trump does a great job on

00:53:15.280 affordability it wouldn't matter to us to uh the midterms partly because that would be the rear view

00:53:22.240 mirror by the time it happened right so people don't vote for the past they vote for do you understand

00:53:30.640 what i care about as their their way of understanding whether something would be done about it

00:53:36.800 so at the moment the democrats were doing a better job of acting like affordability is the main thing

00:53:46.880 that would beat the republican plan of saying oh we did a good job on energy and eggs and a few other

00:53:54.160 things so that would be a winning position so can trump reverse that can he can he show enough empathy

00:54:03.120 and enough of a plan going forward such as health care also in the article was the idea that if the

00:54:13.040 republicans don't have a health care plan any kind of health care plan or one that doesn't sound good

00:54:19.680 they can't win because that would show a lack of empathy the democrats still have the option of saying

00:54:28.640 we understand your pain uh we're going to do something about it and what we're going to do

00:54:34.640 about it is throw massive amounts of money at it and you know that'll fix it now if you're a voter

00:54:42.720 you say to yourself oh i don't like overspending but if they can immediately solve my problem

00:54:50.480 and they immediately understand it which is what it would sound like that's a winning play

00:54:55.120 winning proposition so at the very least trump would have to have a republican plan that doesn't

00:55:03.040 sound bad shit crazy and he would have to show that even though he got a few victories on affordability 0.60

00:55:10.960 that uh he has so much more to do so if he if he can sell both of those ideas we have so much more to

00:55:18.960 do it's a top priority i totally understand why you want more affordability you know we're going to

00:55:25.360 make it happen here's one of the things we're going to do for health care but short of that

00:55:32.640 the republicans have a losing path

00:55:34.480 all right um i saw this quote today from elon musk once again always in the news he thinks that

00:55:50.480 neural link that chip you put in people's head um in the future there's nothing physically to stop

00:55:58.240 them from being able to restore full bodily function so in other words if you had let's say

00:56:04.320 a break in your spinal cord at the moment there's nothing we can do about it but if you had a

00:56:11.680 neural link chip not yet not yet they can't do it yet but in the future it will be able to bypass

00:56:19.680 the uh the disturbance in your um in your existing nerves and just send the signal to where it needs to

00:56:27.840 be and that people who are paralyzed completely paralyzed could get back a hundred percent of their

00:56:34.320 function isn't that amazing that's so amazing now it'll be too late to help me of course but uh

00:56:44.240 just the fact that he's got that as a target and he usually hits his targets yeah it's just amazing

00:56:52.400 so thank you for that elon musk on behalf of all paralyzed and semi-paralyzed people like me all right

00:57:05.520 um immediately after the show uh owen gregorian will be setting up a spaces

00:57:12.960 event on x spaces if you didn't know is the audio only doesn't cost anything to participate

00:57:20.960 it's audio only and uh people will be invited up to make their points and say things now uh this will

00:57:28.320 happen immediately after i'm done you have to give them a few minutes just to fire it up so immediately

00:57:34.720 is not exactly immediately um but if you want to find it you if you follow me in x i've reposted it

00:57:42.960 the link to it and if you don't see that just look for owen gregorian and you'll find it quickly now the

00:57:51.840 the original plan that owen had was to ask people if i've helped them in some way and make that the theme

00:58:00.480 but that was before venezuela um got attacked so i would not be i would not be insulted

00:58:09.280 if the spacious event is more about venezuela because that's sort of a you know top of mind

00:58:14.480 at the moment but uh a lot of people love the spaces they sometimes they'll run two or three hours

00:58:22.240 because people just want to keep going and it's amazing all right so that is all i have for you

00:58:29.920 i think i made it about an hour didn't i pretty good timed it perfectly all right i'm going to go

00:58:38.000 private just for a minute with the locals um like i said people are locals probably want to head over to

00:58:47.040 to spaces pretty soon so i'll keep it oh hiccups so i'll keep it short but thanks for joining

00:58:59.040 locals i'll be with you just to wrap things up

00:59:29.040 you

00:59:59.040 Thank you.

01:00:29.040 Thank you.

01:00:59.040 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 03, 2026

Episode 3061 CWSA 01⧸03⧸26

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