Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 792 Scott Adams PART 1of2： Impeachment Stains, Mexican Cartels Theory

00:00:00.700 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum 1.00

00:00:08.240 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:11.640 Do you ever wonder why I do the simultaneous sip before my periscopes?

00:00:17.080 Well, some of it is a bonding experience, of course.

00:00:21.120 But I do it also, somebody asked about this,

00:00:23.460 I do it also because it gives time for people to stream in before I get into the serious content,

00:00:31.240 so I don't have to repeat myself.

00:00:33.940 And so, because you're all here so early, it's time for the simultaneous sip,

00:00:39.360 and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask,

00:00:43.540 a vessel of any kind.

00:00:45.420 Fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee.

00:00:47.740 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,

00:00:52.660 the thing that makes everything better, the simultaneous sip.

00:00:57.740 Go.

00:01:02.160 Ah.

00:01:05.820 To whoever said first time to come on time for the simultaneous sip,

00:01:10.820 well, now you know the pleasure.

00:01:14.100 Oh yeah, that's good.

00:01:15.780 All right, so yesterday I was giddily telling you that I saw a clip where Conor McGregor,

00:01:26.500 he's one of the top MMA fighters the world has ever produced,

00:01:32.460 that his coach mentioned me and the idea of systems over goals

00:01:37.900 as part of the training process for Conor McGregor.

00:01:41.260 And I was sort of bragging about it a little bit on Periscope yesterday,

00:01:46.300 that I'd done something useful that crossed into a domain that I would not have expected, actually.

00:01:53.900 And then I realized that Conor McGregor was going to fight last night.

00:01:58.300 But I didn't realize that the reason his coach, trainer, was talking is because the fight was coming up.

00:02:07.280 And suddenly I thought to myself,

00:02:09.720 uh-oh, what if he loses?

00:02:14.360 Here I've been telling everybody,

00:02:16.540 well, I think I've had some influence,

00:02:19.260 maybe indirectly or in a small way,

00:02:21.560 in the process he's using to train.

00:02:23.440 But, if you don't already know,

00:02:27.360 Conor McGregor won in 40 seconds.

00:02:31.940 Let me say that again.

00:02:33.820 He won the fight in 40 seconds.

00:02:37.280 I believe the total tally of punches that the other guy landed was

00:02:42.720 zero.

00:02:44.540 I think he fact-checked me on this.

00:02:50.300 But I think I heard that.

00:02:52.440 I think I heard that the other,

00:02:54.520 the guy, the cowboy, or whoever he knocked out,

00:02:57.540 who was a top-level fighter,

00:02:59.600 it's not like he was beating up

00:03:01.180 people who were just starting.

00:03:02.960 This was a top competitor.

00:03:05.900 And the outcome was

00:03:08.300 certainly in question.

00:03:10.820 And Conor McGregor beat him

00:03:12.080 in 40 seconds.

00:03:14.100 And the other guy

00:03:15.100 didn't land a punch.

00:03:19.680 So,

00:03:20.920 I guess you want to

00:03:22.220 read my book,

00:03:23.260 How to Fail at Almost Everything

00:03:24.400 and Still Win Big,

00:03:25.580 where I talk about

00:03:26.520 systems are better than goals.

00:03:29.000 If you can't remember the name of the book,

00:03:30.720 just go to Amazon and

00:03:31.880 Google my name and it'll pop up.

00:03:36.560 Let's talk about

00:03:37.740 my most ridiculous

00:03:41.460 prediction.

00:03:43.260 I suppose I've made some predictions

00:03:45.120 that are pretty ridiculous.

00:03:47.040 But none more ridiculous

00:03:48.640 than the one I made

00:03:50.720 about who will be the nominee

00:03:52.760 for the Democrats.

00:03:55.920 Now, a year and a half ago,

00:03:57.800 I said,

00:03:58.160 well, it's going to be

00:03:58.960 Harris

00:04:00.460 because she's got all the tools, 0.83

00:04:03.060 but it turns out

00:04:03.780 she's a terrible 0.99

00:04:04.720 just a terrible

00:04:07.180 campaigner,

00:04:07.980 like a really,

00:04:08.660 really bad campaigner.

00:04:09.920 So she's suspended 0.97

00:04:11.120 her run.

00:04:14.900 But

00:04:15.340 here's what I think

00:04:16.960 is going to happen.

00:04:18.600 Would you agree

00:04:19.500 that Joe Biden

00:04:20.360 is sort of the

00:04:21.520 I guess you'd say

00:04:23.440 he's the

00:04:24.280 establishment

00:04:25.280 Democrats' choice,

00:04:27.160 but I think

00:04:28.220 we'd all agree

00:04:28.920 they're not terribly

00:04:29.920 comfortable with him

00:04:31.120 because of his age.

00:04:33.260 They kind of like

00:04:34.300 where he is policy-wise

00:04:35.580 and his connections

00:04:36.880 to things,

00:04:38.080 but maybe not

00:04:38.880 a full confidence

00:04:39.940 in his

00:04:40.560 current abilities.

00:04:43.800 It looks like

00:04:44.760 the plan is this.

00:04:46.280 Now, by the way,

00:04:46.960 did you know

00:04:47.460 that Harris

00:04:48.080 had one of the

00:04:49.400 most endorsements

00:04:51.760 from established people?

00:04:54.400 That's important.

00:04:55.960 Did you know

00:04:56.560 that Harris

00:04:57.260 also,

00:04:58.600 I believe,

00:04:59.340 had the most

00:05:00.100 Hillary Clinton

00:05:01.820 associated people

00:05:03.420 working on her

00:05:04.940 campaign?

00:05:05.680 Did you know that?

00:05:07.860 That's important

00:05:08.760 because it does seem

00:05:10.340 that Harris

00:05:10.940 was who the,

00:05:12.920 let's say,

00:05:13.440 the Clinton holdovers

00:05:14.900 who you imagine

00:05:15.920 have deep state

00:05:17.240 kind of influence.

00:05:19.060 It looks like

00:05:19.980 they wanted her,

00:05:21.200 but she wasn't

00:05:22.140 getting any traction

00:05:22.980 and she was doing

00:05:23.680 a terrible job

00:05:24.640 of campaigning.

00:05:25.520 but

00:05:27.140 she's almost

00:05:29.140 a perfect

00:05:30.060 compliment

00:05:30.840 to Joe Biden

00:05:33.360 because

00:05:34.860 he's older,

00:05:36.840 she's young,

00:05:37.660 so that

00:05:38.720 gives you

00:05:39.240 a little confidence

00:05:40.100 that if something

00:05:40.780 happened to him,

00:05:41.500 you'd say,

00:05:41.840 well,

00:05:42.540 at least there's

00:05:43.180 a young person

00:05:43.980 with Senate

00:05:44.640 experience.

00:05:46.240 It's not going

00:05:46.840 to be the end

00:05:47.240 of the world

00:05:47.760 if Joe had to

00:05:49.160 exit the job

00:05:50.560 a little early.

00:05:51.840 So that's a good

00:05:52.740 compliment.

00:05:53.980 Secondly,

00:05:54.820 she's a person

00:05:55.780 of color.

00:05:57.260 Now,

00:05:57.500 so is Cory Booker.

00:05:59.480 Cory Booker,

00:06:00.340 very solid,

00:06:01.900 capable,

00:06:03.080 public servant,

00:06:05.360 senator.

00:06:06.620 Cory Booker

00:06:07.120 would be great,

00:06:07.720 right?

00:06:08.880 Except,

00:06:10.280 Cory Booker's

00:06:11.220 a man.

00:06:13.380 If you have

00:06:14.160 a choice

00:06:14.640 of having

00:06:15.420 your running mate,

00:06:16.240 let's say you're

00:06:16.660 Joe Biden,

00:06:17.360 a choice of having

00:06:18.180 someone who is

00:06:18.860 only a person

00:06:19.780 of color,

00:06:20.380 but unfortunately

00:06:21.260 a man,

00:06:21.840 versus someone

00:06:23.480 who's a person

00:06:24.040 of color,

00:06:24.560 but hey,

00:06:26.060 a woman.

00:06:27.520 Which is better?

00:06:28.320 Which is a better

00:06:28.900 compliment?

00:06:29.620 No question about it.

00:06:31.060 There's no question

00:06:31.940 about it.

00:06:32.420 The best compliment

00:06:33.640 to the ticket

00:06:34.440 is Harris.

00:06:36.240 Now,

00:06:36.740 I have a second

00:06:37.380 theory that

00:06:39.300 part of the reason

00:06:40.900 that Harris

00:06:41.360 disappeared is

00:06:43.120 that it was a way

00:06:44.080 to close down

00:06:44.740 the campaign

00:06:45.360 and get rid

00:06:46.100 of her sister

00:06:46.800 as her main

00:06:48.040 advisor.

00:06:48.520 because if

00:06:49.700 you're the

00:06:50.120 part of the,

00:06:50.840 let's say,

00:06:51.780 Clinton,

00:06:52.540 shadow government,

00:06:53.740 deep state,

00:06:55.000 Democrat,

00:06:55.980 establishment

00:06:57.380 people,

00:06:58.560 you kind of

00:06:59.660 needed to get

00:07:00.360 rid of

00:07:00.840 Harris's sister

00:07:01.900 in order

00:07:02.940 to make

00:07:03.360 Harris

00:07:03.780 useful.

00:07:06.160 I'm going

00:07:06.880 to say

00:07:07.320 that she

00:07:07.940 may be

00:07:08.340 undergoing

00:07:08.820 some kind

00:07:09.500 of coaching,

00:07:10.820 mentoring,

00:07:12.280 practice

00:07:12.860 situation,

00:07:13.600 and I

00:07:14.620 think that

00:07:15.080 if she

00:07:15.520 were to

00:07:15.940 be nominated

00:07:16.680 for vice

00:07:18.020 president

00:07:18.420 or picked

00:07:19.260 as a running

00:07:19.820 mate,

00:07:20.180 I mean,

00:07:20.480 by Biden,

00:07:21.860 that the

00:07:22.780 next time

00:07:23.280 you see

00:07:23.680 her,

00:07:24.500 she's going

00:07:24.880 to come

00:07:25.200 back stronger,

00:07:27.020 meaning more

00:07:27.980 charisma,

00:07:29.560 better

00:07:30.160 presentation,

00:07:31.660 a little

00:07:31.940 more crisp

00:07:33.160 message,

00:07:34.680 you know,

00:07:35.040 on point,

00:07:36.520 and so that's

00:07:37.780 what I would

00:07:38.220 look for

00:07:38.680 because I

00:07:39.840 believe she's

00:07:40.400 very coachable.

00:07:42.320 Harris is

00:07:42.880 unique in

00:07:43.400 that she

00:07:43.640 doesn't

00:07:43.940 seem to

00:07:45.980 have any

00:07:46.320 problems

00:07:46.760 that I

00:07:47.080 would

00:07:47.220 consider

00:07:47.800 unsolvable,

00:07:49.660 natural

00:07:50.020 problems.

00:07:51.260 It all

00:07:51.600 seems like

00:07:52.120 technique.

00:07:53.720 Now,

00:07:54.060 some have

00:07:54.500 pointed out,

00:07:55.880 you know,

00:07:56.640 hey,

00:07:57.160 Harris does

00:07:57.680 not have a

00:07:58.180 lot of

00:07:58.580 popularity

00:07:59.380 in the

00:07:59.940 African-American

00:08:00.640 community.

00:08:02.280 Doesn't

00:08:02.880 matter,

00:08:03.660 because Joe

00:08:04.360 Biden does.

00:08:06.160 Joe Biden's

00:08:06.940 popularity in

00:08:07.740 the African-American

00:08:08.520 community is so

00:08:09.460 high that he

00:08:10.640 doesn't really

00:08:11.240 need to bring

00:08:12.080 more in by

00:08:12.780 his vice

00:08:13.260 presidential

00:08:13.840 pick.

00:08:14.720 He just

00:08:15.240 needs to

00:08:15.640 show that

00:08:16.000 he's being

00:08:16.520 open to

00:08:17.840 diversity and

00:08:18.900 he's being

00:08:19.820 inclusive,

00:08:20.640 and that's

00:08:20.900 why she'd

00:08:21.240 be a

00:08:21.480 perfect

00:08:21.900 complement.

00:08:23.660 Either of

00:08:24.180 them individually

00:08:24.920 is a little

00:08:25.420 weak, but

00:08:26.360 together they

00:08:27.000 actually fit

00:08:27.800 pretty well

00:08:28.540 and better

00:08:29.400 than anybody

00:08:29.920 else, at

00:08:30.880 least who's

00:08:31.340 a name in

00:08:32.040 our consciousness

00:08:33.760 right now.

00:08:35.420 So, the

00:08:36.920 other part of

00:08:37.460 the prediction

00:08:38.360 is that by

00:08:39.260 election day,

00:08:40.060 if it turns

00:08:41.500 out it's a

00:08:42.100 Biden-Harris

00:08:42.900 ticket, that

00:08:44.180 by election

00:08:44.780 day, either

00:08:45.780 literally or

00:08:48.400 in kind,

00:08:50.160 people will be

00:08:50.960 talking about

00:08:51.680 Harris as the

00:08:52.460 top of the

00:08:52.960 ticket.

00:08:53.980 Now, they

00:08:54.360 might be

00:08:54.740 saying, hey,

00:08:55.260 let's flip

00:08:55.740 him before

00:08:56.180 election day,

00:08:57.000 because Joe

00:08:57.780 Biden looks

00:08:58.300 like he's

00:08:58.680 falling apart.

00:09:00.040 Or they

00:09:00.700 might say,

00:09:01.640 well, let's

00:09:02.420 get through

00:09:02.860 the election

00:09:03.360 the way it

00:09:03.840 is, but at

00:09:05.020 least we've

00:09:05.380 got our

00:09:05.760 emergency

00:09:06.260 spare ready.

00:09:07.100 So, I

00:09:09.680 think you're

00:09:10.080 going to

00:09:10.220 see, Harris,

00:09:11.780 this is my

00:09:12.480 most unlikely

00:09:14.080 prediction of

00:09:15.040 all time.

00:09:16.100 I believe that

00:09:16.820 there's not one

00:09:17.440 person here who

00:09:18.200 would agree with

00:09:18.940 me, is there?

00:09:20.200 Probably not one

00:09:21.020 of you.

00:09:22.060 And that's what

00:09:22.740 makes it fun.

00:09:23.940 All right.

00:09:25.620 So, we'll just

00:09:26.460 track that one.

00:09:27.200 If I'm wrong,

00:09:27.800 I'm wrong.

00:09:29.140 I've got a

00:09:29.840 theory about

00:09:30.480 Mexico.

00:09:32.180 There was a

00:09:32.700 story that the

00:09:33.500 Mexican military

00:09:35.300 stopped a

00:09:36.740 big crowd

00:09:37.860 of Guatemalans

00:09:38.800 who were

00:09:39.040 trying to

00:09:39.740 penetrate the

00:09:40.800 southern border

00:09:41.400 of Mexico,

00:09:42.120 if I understand

00:09:42.860 this right.

00:09:44.000 And Mexico

00:09:44.540 is doing a

00:09:45.160 good job for

00:09:45.780 the United

00:09:46.120 States, being

00:09:47.180 a good neighbor

00:09:48.280 and partner,

00:09:48.960 by stopping it

00:09:49.800 before it gets

00:09:50.540 to our border.

00:09:52.060 And I say to

00:09:52.940 myself, you

00:09:53.660 know, why is

00:09:55.880 it that the

00:09:56.320 government of

00:09:57.140 Mexico was so 0.98

00:09:59.000 good on this

00:09:59.740 point, but

00:10:02.840 not good on,

00:10:03.720 let's say,

00:10:04.120 fighting cartels?

00:10:05.140 Because I

00:10:07.000 look at what

00:10:08.100 the government

00:10:08.800 of Mexico is

00:10:09.480 doing, they're

00:10:09.880 putting a lot

00:10:10.300 of money and

00:10:11.020 resources, and

00:10:12.600 it feels like

00:10:13.400 they're doing it

00:10:14.060 almost entirely

00:10:15.840 for the benefit

00:10:16.580 of the United

00:10:17.160 States.

00:10:18.520 Does that seem

00:10:19.480 in character?

00:10:21.060 Does it make

00:10:21.660 sense, given the

00:10:23.100 other things

00:10:23.640 they're doing?

00:10:24.520 So how does it

00:10:25.200 make sense that

00:10:25.900 they're so

00:10:26.360 flexible, and

00:10:27.860 really, more

00:10:29.280 than flexible,

00:10:30.060 they're putting

00:10:30.640 major effort and

00:10:32.060 resources?

00:10:32.480 Is it doing

00:10:33.560 something we

00:10:34.140 want, stopping

00:10:35.140 people coming

00:10:35.760 through their

00:10:36.200 southern border

00:10:36.820 before they get

00:10:37.460 to our border?

00:10:38.840 But at the

00:10:39.560 same time, it

00:10:40.820 feels like they're

00:10:41.400 doing absolutely

00:10:42.040 nothing about the

00:10:42.940 cartels, at least

00:10:45.180 in terms of how

00:10:46.180 much we've offered

00:10:46.920 to help them, and

00:10:47.820 they've said, no,

00:10:49.160 let's go with the

00:10:49.800 hugs, not the

00:10:50.880 guns.

00:10:51.620 How could you

00:10:52.280 explain those two

00:10:53.220 things?

00:10:54.620 Well, unfortunately,

00:10:55.840 there is one way

00:10:56.700 to explain it.

00:10:57.920 Now, I'm not going

00:10:58.500 to say that this is

00:10:59.580 a truth.

00:11:01.360 I'm going to say

00:11:01.960 that it would

00:11:03.180 explain our

00:11:04.080 observation in a

00:11:05.260 way that nothing

00:11:06.620 else does.

00:11:08.000 And it goes like

00:11:08.740 this.

00:11:09.800 The cartels

00:11:10.700 effectively own

00:11:12.200 the government

00:11:12.740 of Mexico.

00:11:14.820 The cartels

00:11:16.180 make a tremendous

00:11:17.540 amount of money

00:11:18.440 helping small

00:11:20.860 groups of mostly

00:11:22.300 Mexican citizens

00:11:23.560 across the

00:11:24.580 border.

00:11:25.480 So it's a

00:11:26.240 gigantic profit

00:11:27.120 center for the

00:11:28.180 cartels,

00:11:29.580 to let the

00:11:30.360 onesies and

00:11:30.960 twosies across

00:11:31.680 the border.

00:11:32.240 Lots of them.

00:11:32.980 I mean, it's a

00:11:33.480 big volume, but

00:11:34.560 they're coming

00:11:34.920 across in small

00:11:35.720 groups.

00:11:37.320 The reason that

00:11:38.580 the Guatemalans

00:11:39.600 form up into

00:11:41.000 large convoys is

00:11:43.340 so that the

00:11:44.160 cartel can't

00:11:45.780 abuse them and 0.95

00:11:46.780 can't take their

00:11:47.560 money and can't

00:11:48.920 profit.

00:11:50.760 So, it seems

00:11:52.380 that the

00:11:52.760 government of

00:11:53.440 Mexico is very,

00:11:55.280 very flexible and

00:11:56.340 willing to work

00:11:57.080 with us when it

00:11:58.460 helps the

00:11:59.020 profit of the

00:11:59.920 cartel.

00:12:00.960 Now, it helps

00:12:01.680 us, so I

00:12:03.120 think we're

00:12:03.460 pretty happy that

00:12:04.200 Mexico is 0.51

00:12:04.840 stopping the

00:12:05.600 caravans, but

00:12:07.560 the caravans

00:12:08.320 were the one

00:12:09.000 way that the

00:12:09.880 cartels couldn't

00:12:10.700 make money,

00:12:11.780 because they

00:12:12.640 formed cartels

00:12:13.440 for that purpose,

00:12:14.340 so the cartels

00:12:15.220 could not blackmail

00:12:17.060 them and threaten

00:12:17.720 them.

00:12:18.060 It was a security

00:12:19.400 reason.

00:12:19.900 That's why they

00:12:20.300 do it.

00:12:20.640 So, my guess is

00:12:24.880 that the reason

00:12:25.500 that there may

00:12:26.820 be perhaps even

00:12:28.700 some kind of

00:12:29.480 understanding with

00:12:30.900 our government

00:12:31.480 that we're really

00:12:33.140 dealing with the

00:12:33.820 cartels, and

00:12:35.200 that if we can

00:12:36.000 get them to stop

00:12:36.740 the massive

00:12:37.360 immigration, at

00:12:38.940 least we've got

00:12:39.500 something, and

00:12:41.140 we're going to

00:12:41.540 have to figure out

00:12:42.140 what to do about

00:12:42.800 fentanyl later.

00:12:45.320 I saw on news,

00:12:46.560 I don't know who

00:12:47.040 was talking about

00:12:47.620 it, that we have

00:12:48.060 some kind of

00:12:48.520 process, where

00:12:49.800 we check the

00:12:50.700 incoming, I

00:12:51.680 guess once a

00:12:52.260 month, we

00:12:53.180 randomly check

00:12:54.060 incoming shipping

00:12:56.420 containers or

00:12:57.460 goods coming in

00:12:58.360 from China.

00:12:59.620 In our recent

00:13:00.740 checks, something

00:13:01.600 like 15% of

00:13:03.740 all the goods

00:13:04.440 coming in from

00:13:05.140 China are 0.90

00:13:06.200 contraband.

00:13:09.020 15%, one

00:13:09.840 five, 15% of

00:13:12.320 everything that's

00:13:13.080 coming in from

00:13:13.680 China is either 0.87

00:13:15.320 counterfeit goods

00:13:17.220 that are competing

00:13:18.500 with American

00:13:19.200 products or other

00:13:20.080 products, could be

00:13:21.220 European, and

00:13:23.220 fentanyl and

00:13:24.600 drugs, 15%.

00:13:26.840 And apparently

00:13:27.760 that's the way

00:13:28.540 we'll, it's one

00:13:29.580 of the ways we

00:13:30.100 can tell if

00:13:30.800 they're cooperating

00:13:31.660 over time.

00:13:32.820 So once a

00:13:33.380 month they'll do

00:13:34.060 a survey, and

00:13:35.620 if it's still

00:13:36.240 15%, it means

00:13:38.640 that China is not 0.99

00:13:39.520 cracking down on

00:13:40.400 intellectual property,

00:13:41.520 they're not

00:13:41.880 cracking down on

00:13:42.600 fentanyl, because

00:13:43.560 they have the

00:13:44.080 ability.

00:13:44.660 We know they

00:13:45.140 have the

00:13:45.400 ability.

00:13:47.660 And so I'm

00:13:49.940 looking at all

00:13:50.540 this, and I'm

00:13:51.440 thinking, I don't

00:13:53.860 know if we've

00:13:54.420 done enough

00:13:55.000 working with

00:13:56.440 China to stop 0.99

00:13:57.240 the fentanyl.

00:13:57.980 I hear there's

00:13:58.540 something happening,

00:13:59.980 you know, that

00:14:00.740 there's noise about

00:14:02.380 them being successful,

00:14:03.420 but I'll say it a

00:14:04.040 million times.

00:14:05.020 As long as the

00:14:06.180 top known

00:14:07.680 fentanyl dealer in

00:14:09.040 China is still 0.98

00:14:09.720 free, which I

00:14:11.480 believe he is,

00:14:12.140 somebody can

00:14:13.020 fact check me

00:14:14.380 on that, but I

00:14:14.880 believe he's just

00:14:16.120 shopping and walking

00:14:17.220 around and selling

00:14:18.140 fentanyl by the

00:14:19.160 barrel.

00:14:21.340 As long as that

00:14:22.320 guy is still alive

00:14:23.360 and free, China's 0.77

00:14:25.540 not doing anything.

00:14:26.740 That's not real.

00:14:28.980 All right.

00:14:31.880 Scott Jennings had

00:14:33.120 an interesting

00:14:33.940 opinion piece on

00:14:36.080 CNN, which I

00:14:38.340 took some

00:14:39.800 inspiration from

00:14:40.720 for a tweet.

00:14:43.140 And Scott

00:14:44.360 Jennings's point

00:14:45.980 was that,

00:14:49.640 well, here's the

00:14:50.440 way I summarized

00:14:51.200 it in my tweet.

00:14:52.100 So these are my

00:14:52.780 words.

00:14:53.220 I said it's

00:14:53.620 starting to look as

00:14:54.400 if the permanent

00:14:55.080 stain of impeachment

00:14:56.280 will be on

00:14:57.700 Pelosi for

00:14:58.960 trivializing the

00:15:00.060 process, while at

00:15:01.440 the same time it

00:15:02.140 confirms that Trump

00:15:03.000 is directly over

00:15:03.940 the target he was

00:15:04.920 elected to destroy.

00:15:07.140 Now, Scott

00:15:07.740 Jennings's point,

00:15:08.560 which I basically

00:15:09.420 stole to reword

00:15:10.680 into a tweet,

00:15:11.720 because I wanted

00:15:12.860 the crisp version

00:15:15.000 because it just

00:15:16.240 transmits better

00:15:17.240 at small.

00:15:20.360 His point was

00:15:21.620 that Donald

00:15:23.360 Trump was

00:15:24.220 elected to

00:15:25.660 break the

00:15:26.780 parts of the

00:15:27.320 government we

00:15:27.940 don't like.

00:15:29.560 Right?

00:15:30.600 I mean, that's

00:15:31.140 pretty true.

00:15:32.460 Nobody elected

00:15:33.320 Trump to be a

00:15:34.620 steady state,

00:15:35.580 keep it the same,

00:15:36.900 keep this ship

00:15:37.680 going just the

00:15:38.460 way it was.

00:15:39.100 he was brought

00:15:40.520 in to just

00:15:41.120 break stuff.

00:15:43.120 He was brought

00:15:44.520 in like a

00:15:45.320 wrecking ball

00:15:46.020 to just, you

00:15:47.420 know, just

00:15:48.320 wreck all the

00:15:49.560 stuff that was

00:15:50.340 frozen and

00:15:51.240 broken and

00:15:52.040 corrupt.

00:15:53.640 Now, of course,

00:15:54.420 he can't get rid

00:15:55.120 of all corruption

00:15:55.960 and all problems

00:15:57.840 in the government,

00:15:58.960 but what would

00:16:00.760 you expect the

00:16:02.020 world would look

00:16:02.820 like if he were

00:16:04.120 successful in

00:16:05.200 doing what his

00:16:05.880 voters asked him

00:16:06.920 to do?

00:16:07.320 What would

00:16:07.960 that look like?

00:16:09.520 Well, one of

00:16:10.820 the things that I

00:16:11.480 think you could

00:16:12.060 predict is that

00:16:13.620 the other side

00:16:14.340 would try

00:16:15.080 everything they

00:16:16.020 could to stop

00:16:17.700 him.

00:16:18.440 They would try

00:16:18.980 all the easy

00:16:19.600 stuff first.

00:16:20.580 Let's try to

00:16:21.080 beat him in the

00:16:21.620 election.

00:16:22.180 Okay, that

00:16:22.660 didn't work.

00:16:23.620 Let's try to

00:16:24.200 beat him in

00:16:24.760 public opinion.

00:16:26.520 Okay, he's

00:16:26.980 really good at

00:16:27.560 that.

00:16:27.780 That's not

00:16:28.160 working.

00:16:28.840 Let's beat

00:16:29.320 him by

00:16:29.640 controlling the

00:16:30.300 press.

00:16:31.020 Uh-oh, he

00:16:31.580 just delegitimized

00:16:32.640 the entire

00:16:33.180 press.

00:16:33.860 Let's use our

00:16:34.600 deep state and

00:16:36.020 the people we

00:16:36.700 have in maybe

00:16:37.800 the FBI or

00:16:38.800 the Department

00:16:39.440 of Justice.

00:16:40.260 Uh-oh, they

00:16:40.740 got caught.

00:16:42.360 Think about

00:16:42.880 it.

00:16:43.760 The Democrats

00:16:44.380 have thrown

00:16:45.040 everything you

00:16:47.240 could throw at

00:16:47.900 this president.

00:16:49.160 What would be

00:16:49.640 the most natural

00:16:50.760 result of,

00:16:53.340 here's the key

00:16:54.160 point, and this

00:16:54.820 is what I'm

00:16:55.240 stealing from

00:16:55.740 Scott Jennings,

00:16:56.660 what would be

00:16:57.160 the natural

00:16:57.960 outcome of

00:16:59.820 Trump succeeding

00:17:01.080 at what he

00:17:01.960 promised his

00:17:02.740 voters?

00:17:04.620 Impeachment.

00:17:05.140 given that

00:17:07.080 the House

00:17:09.040 is controlled

00:17:09.980 by the

00:17:10.380 other party.

00:17:11.460 You would

00:17:12.160 expect, and

00:17:13.260 in fact we

00:17:13.880 should have

00:17:14.220 been able to

00:17:14.800 predict, that

00:17:16.020 the better

00:17:16.480 Trump did in

00:17:18.200 terms of

00:17:18.740 destroying the

00:17:19.580 things that

00:17:20.100 people wanted

00:17:20.820 him to

00:17:21.180 destroy,

00:17:22.160 everything from

00:17:22.860 the press to

00:17:23.720 every old way

00:17:25.320 of doing

00:17:25.640 things, apparently

00:17:26.840 he was calling

00:17:27.440 his generals

00:17:28.020 idiots.

00:17:29.720 I'm not even

00:17:30.620 sad about that.

00:17:31.820 he came in

00:17:33.860 to break

00:17:34.260 stuff, he's

00:17:35.680 breaking stuff,

00:17:36.500 and he's not

00:17:37.020 breaking the

00:17:37.540 stuff I didn't

00:17:38.280 want broken,

00:17:39.600 he's only

00:17:40.160 breaking the

00:17:40.700 stuff I

00:17:41.180 thought needed

00:17:41.760 to get a

00:17:42.240 little bit

00:17:42.560 broken, at

00:17:43.320 least shake

00:17:43.620 the box,

00:17:44.160 right?

00:17:45.120 So, this

00:17:47.440 weird thing is

00:17:48.220 forming, which

00:17:49.640 is that the

00:17:51.040 impeachment is

00:17:51.900 starting to

00:17:52.660 morph or

00:17:54.360 evolve from

00:17:56.560 the worst

00:17:57.600 stain a

00:17:58.420 president could

00:17:59.100 have to

00:18:00.660 wait for

00:18:02.140 it, the

00:18:04.400 clearest

00:18:05.180 signal that

00:18:05.940 he's doing

00:18:06.380 what the

00:18:06.840 voters asked

00:18:07.500 him to do.

00:18:08.560 You could

00:18:09.300 not have a

00:18:10.140 more clear

00:18:10.860 signal that

00:18:13.280 he's right

00:18:13.920 over the

00:18:14.320 target, because

00:18:15.580 he's getting

00:18:15.960 all the

00:18:16.280 anti-aircraft

00:18:17.120 fire, they're

00:18:18.560 unloading the

00:18:19.400 clip, right?

00:18:20.740 They're throwing

00:18:21.380 everything at

00:18:22.240 him, it's all

00:18:22.640 they had left,

00:18:23.740 and it looks

00:18:24.560 desperate, does

00:18:25.380 it not?

00:18:26.900 Impeachment is

00:18:27.800 starting to look

00:18:28.760 like a death

00:18:29.820 rattle for the

00:18:30.680 Democratic Party,

00:18:32.400 and it's

00:18:33.180 starting to

00:18:33.720 look, not

00:18:34.580 even starting

00:18:35.160 to look, I

00:18:36.200 can state this

00:18:37.500 as a firm

00:18:40.240 statement of

00:18:40.940 fact, Pelosi

00:18:43.160 is going to

00:18:44.740 wear the

00:18:45.320 stain of

00:18:45.960 impeachment

00:18:46.400 forever,

00:18:48.500 because she

00:18:49.940 broke one

00:18:51.880 of the most

00:18:52.300 important parts

00:18:53.120 of the

00:18:53.400 Constitution.

00:18:55.040 She broke 0.84

00:18:55.860 impeachment by

00:18:56.960 mistreating it,

00:18:57.840 by trivializing

00:19:00.100 it, by

00:19:00.520 using it as

00:19:01.100 a base

00:19:02.620 political tool

00:19:03.640 instead of

00:19:04.240 the last

00:19:04.640 resort.

00:19:06.460 She's going

00:19:07.020 to have to

00:19:07.400 live with

00:19:07.760 that forever.

00:19:10.040 Every time

00:19:10.740 in the future

00:19:11.320 there's another

00:19:12.260 impeachment, and

00:19:13.160 you know there's

00:19:13.680 going to be a

00:19:14.100 lot of them,

00:19:15.120 going to be a

00:19:15.960 lot of them.

00:19:16.860 Every time

00:19:17.480 your president

00:19:18.400 is a different

00:19:19.120 party from the

00:19:20.340 House, impeachment

00:19:21.700 is just automatic.

00:19:23.100 And what will

00:19:23.620 every story say

00:19:24.920 about that?

00:19:26.720 They're going

00:19:27.080 to say Pelosi

00:19:27.820 did this.

00:19:29.060 They're going

00:19:29.320 to say Pelosi

00:19:30.120 broke this.

00:19:31.420 This used to

00:19:32.160 be a process

00:19:33.180 that would get

00:19:33.780 rid of a

00:19:34.280 Richard Nixon.

00:19:36.380 Now it's not.

00:19:38.040 Now it's just

00:19:38.680 a broken

00:19:39.240 partisan thing,

00:19:41.360 and that

00:19:42.340 stain will be

00:19:43.040 on Pelosi

00:19:43.620 forever.

00:19:44.600 But what about

00:19:45.400 the stain on

00:19:46.220 Trump?

00:19:47.500 Well, here's the

00:19:48.400 thing.

00:19:49.460 If you get

00:19:50.240 impeached because

00:19:51.100 you did, let's

00:19:52.040 say, what

00:19:52.380 Richard Nixon did,

00:19:53.300 well, that's

00:19:53.780 a stain forever.

00:19:55.120 If you get

00:19:55.820 impeached for

00:19:56.620 what Bill

00:19:57.060 Clinton did,

00:19:58.660 it's kind of a

00:19:59.240 mixed bag, isn't

00:20:00.040 it?

00:20:01.160 How many of

00:20:02.020 you think back

00:20:02.760 to the Clinton

00:20:03.440 administration and

00:20:05.020 think, well,

00:20:06.680 let's say if

00:20:07.720 you're a

00:20:08.020 Democrat, how

00:20:09.260 many look back

00:20:09.900 to the Bill

00:20:10.520 Clinton

00:20:10.840 administration and

00:20:11.900 say, you

00:20:12.780 know, he did

00:20:13.860 a whole bunch

00:20:14.240 of good things,

00:20:15.040 was a very

00:20:15.460 successful

00:20:16.040 administration

00:20:16.940 from my

00:20:18.400 perspective as

00:20:19.280 a Democrat.

00:20:19.840 And by the

00:20:20.120 way, I would

00:20:20.800 agree that Bill

00:20:22.140 Clinton had a

00:20:22.980 successful

00:20:23.520 presidency.

00:20:25.020 But I have

00:20:26.280 not once, not

00:20:28.520 one time, have

00:20:30.460 I thought back

00:20:31.200 and said to

00:20:31.700 myself, you

00:20:32.260 know, I

00:20:33.480 think less of

00:20:34.220 Bill Clinton

00:20:34.780 because he

00:20:35.600 got impeached.

00:20:37.280 Not once.

00:20:39.020 I don't

00:20:39.800 believe Bill

00:20:40.420 Clinton has a

00:20:42.180 stain on his

00:20:42.840 presidency as

00:20:44.300 big as the

00:20:44.920 stain he left

00:20:45.560 on Monica's

00:20:46.260 dress.

00:20:47.920 You know,

00:20:48.160 certainly it's

00:20:48.640 part of the

00:20:49.080 story.

00:20:49.700 Everybody's

00:20:50.160 heard of it.

00:20:51.000 He would

00:20:51.460 prefer that

00:20:52.040 didn't happen.

00:20:53.000 His supporters

00:20:53.560 would prefer

00:20:54.180 it didn't

00:20:54.500 happen.

00:20:55.220 But if you're

00:20:55.700 talking about

00:20:56.140 the impeachment

00:20:56.780 itself, which

00:20:58.560 did not remove

00:20:59.580 him from office,

00:21:01.080 is he stained

00:21:02.160 by the

00:21:02.620 impeachment?

00:21:03.760 Not really.

00:21:05.340 I mean, he

00:21:05.760 might be stained

00:21:06.400 by the event

00:21:07.340 itself.

00:21:09.040 But his

00:21:10.540 presidency looks

00:21:11.980 completely intact

00:21:13.020 to me.

00:21:14.520 Am I wrong?

00:21:15.760 How many people

00:21:16.620 think less of

00:21:18.140 Bill Clinton

00:21:19.080 because of

00:21:20.680 impeachment?

00:21:22.260 I don't

00:21:23.000 think I've

00:21:23.440 ever met

00:21:23.800 one person.

00:21:24.800 Have you?

00:21:26.460 Test it on

00:21:27.120 yourself.

00:21:28.020 Bill Clinton

00:21:28.520 actually did

00:21:29.240 something that

00:21:30.860 both parties

00:21:31.600 thought was

00:21:32.200 worthy of

00:21:32.880 impeachment, or

00:21:33.580 at least enough

00:21:34.120 of them thought

00:21:34.580 it was worthy

00:21:35.060 of impeachment.

00:21:37.840 And there's

00:21:38.700 no stain.

00:21:40.080 There's a

00:21:40.660 stain on what

00:21:41.140 he did, but

00:21:41.640 not on the

00:21:42.060 impeachment part.

00:21:43.540 So I think

00:21:44.240 Bill Clinton

00:21:44.820 tells us what's

00:21:46.740 going to happen

00:21:47.160 with Trump,

00:21:47.860 is that it's

00:21:48.480 going to look

00:21:48.840 like a badge

00:21:49.560 of success

00:21:50.260 by the time

00:21:51.340 he's done

00:21:51.700 with it.

00:21:52.500 You know,

00:21:52.660 Trump does

00:21:53.120 better than

00:21:53.780 anybody at

00:21:54.440 grabbing the

00:21:54.960 gun out of

00:21:55.460 the muggers'

00:21:56.480 hands and

00:21:56.880 turning it

00:21:57.300 around.

00:21:58.260 You know,

00:21:58.480 fake news was

00:21:59.380 originally a

00:22:00.000 complaint about

00:22:00.640 Trump, and

00:22:01.620 then he turned

00:22:02.400 it around.

00:22:03.000 Now it's a

00:22:03.440 complaint about

00:22:04.020 the entire

00:22:04.540 media business,

00:22:06.060 which he's

00:22:06.500 ruined the

00:22:08.380 credibility of

00:22:09.220 completely.

00:22:11.040 They've done

00:22:11.640 a good job of

00:22:12.300 that themselves.

00:22:13.480 All right,

00:22:13.740 let's talk

00:22:14.040 about something

00:22:14.400 else.

00:22:14.640 In some

00:22:18.660 Twitter feed

00:22:19.200 yesterday, I

00:22:20.160 guess, I was

00:22:20.920 supporting Bernie's

00:22:21.980 version of

00:22:22.560 events with

00:22:23.600 Elizabeth Warren.

00:22:25.420 So it doesn't

00:22:26.280 matter the

00:22:26.640 details, but I

00:22:27.360 did a supportive

00:22:29.420 tweet about

00:22:30.960 Bernie saying

00:22:31.660 essentially that I

00:22:32.680 believe his

00:22:33.140 version of the

00:22:33.660 story, and a

00:22:34.940 number of Bernie

00:22:35.500 supporters jumped

00:22:36.460 in to say they

00:22:38.180 were grudgingly

00:22:39.060 agreeing with me

00:22:39.880 because they're

00:22:40.400 Bernie supporters,

00:22:41.140 and they hated

00:22:43.180 it because I'm

00:22:43.880 such a terrible

00:22:44.600 person, and

00:22:45.920 that I'm the

00:22:46.340 worst person in

00:22:47.060 the world, and

00:22:48.280 that agreeing

00:22:48.820 with me is hard

00:22:50.560 because I'm so

00:22:51.220 terrible.

00:22:52.120 And I thought

00:22:52.860 to myself, I

00:22:55.640 don't know too

00:22:56.640 many people I

00:22:57.400 would call terrible

00:22:58.200 people.

00:22:59.840 I know a lot

00:23:00.720 of people I

00:23:01.180 disagree with.

00:23:02.520 I know a lot

00:23:03.120 of people who

00:23:03.540 have done specific

00:23:04.440 things I don't

00:23:05.160 like.

00:23:06.140 But I don't

00:23:06.880 really think of

00:23:07.500 too many people

00:23:08.180 as just terrible

00:23:10.280 people.

00:23:11.140 And I think,

00:23:12.160 what kind of

00:23:12.540 fake news are

00:23:13.180 you reading?

00:23:14.120 Like, I don't

00:23:14.600 even know where

00:23:15.020 it comes from.

00:23:16.380 What exactly

00:23:17.180 have I done that

00:23:18.760 would qualify me

00:23:19.860 to be a terrible

00:23:20.620 human?

00:23:21.700 I mean, not

00:23:22.520 just somebody

00:23:23.740 you disagree

00:23:24.260 with, not

00:23:25.560 somebody who

00:23:26.060 said a stupid

00:23:26.720 thing, a dumb

00:23:27.440 thing, not

00:23:28.020 somebody whose

00:23:29.180 opinions don't

00:23:30.180 make sense, none

00:23:30.880 of that, but a

00:23:32.900 horrible human

00:23:33.720 being, which

00:23:35.040 was the most

00:23:35.480 common thing that

00:23:36.480 people were saying

00:23:37.220 about me yesterday

00:23:38.440 on Twitter.

00:23:39.300 at least the

00:23:41.100 critics.

00:23:42.260 Now, none of

00:23:42.820 that bothers me,

00:23:43.520 of course, but

00:23:44.660 I'm sort of

00:23:45.720 amused by it

00:23:46.540 because Bernie

00:23:49.380 supporters are

00:23:50.340 more toxic than

00:23:52.320 I had imagined.

00:23:53.580 You know, you

00:23:54.040 probably saw the

00:23:54.720 Project Veritas

00:23:55.600 thing with one

00:23:56.700 of the Bernie

00:23:57.080 supporters who

00:23:58.340 just had some

00:24:00.720 things to say,

00:24:01.760 didn't he?

00:24:02.680 You all saw

00:24:03.600 that.

00:24:03.920 and probably

00:24:04.880 made you

00:24:05.300 think, huh,

00:24:06.820 these Bernie

00:24:07.400 supporters are

00:24:08.300 an interesting

00:24:08.980 group of

00:24:09.560 people.

00:24:11.040 You know, I'm

00:24:12.280 sure most of

00:24:12.900 them are, you

00:24:13.980 know, just, you

00:24:15.420 know, have a

00:24:15.840 preference for

00:24:16.540 him as a

00:24:17.100 politician, but

00:24:18.460 there's some bad

00:24:19.840 people in that

00:24:20.580 group.

00:24:21.000 I'm not going to

00:24:21.500 paint the entire

00:24:22.120 group by the

00:24:23.000 bad ones, but

00:24:23.720 there's some

00:24:24.720 really, some

00:24:26.480 rough characters

00:24:27.160 in that group.

00:24:27.700 Now, here's a

00:24:30.060 frame for you

00:24:33.160 that maybe you

00:24:34.120 haven't heard yet.

00:24:35.340 Correct me if I'm

00:24:35.940 wrong.

00:24:36.200 It's possible

00:24:36.700 somebody has said

00:24:37.460 this or maybe

00:24:38.120 lots of people

00:24:38.740 that I haven't

00:24:39.480 heard it.

00:24:40.680 Do you remember

00:24:41.140 the old days

00:24:41.740 when IBM had

00:24:43.780 personal computers

00:24:44.620 and they were

00:24:45.100 competing against

00:24:45.940 Apple Computer?

00:24:47.480 And Apple came

00:24:48.220 up with this

00:24:48.840 great way to

00:24:50.320 frame the

00:24:50.980 situation, the

00:24:51.880 competition.

00:24:53.120 Now, I don't

00:24:53.600 know exactly how

00:24:54.500 true it was, but

00:24:56.320 it was a terrific

00:24:57.160 way to frame it.

00:24:57.700 frame it, and it

00:24:58.320 went like this.

00:24:59.780 There are people

00:25:00.780 who go from IBM

00:25:02.080 PCs, this is back

00:25:03.840 in the day, they

00:25:05.140 would switch out

00:25:06.320 and they'd become

00:25:06.880 Mac users.

00:25:08.520 It was fairly

00:25:09.200 common.

00:25:10.320 But what Apple

00:25:11.020 realized is that

00:25:12.520 people didn't go

00:25:13.260 back.

00:25:14.680 In other words,

00:25:15.480 you didn't see, or

00:25:16.960 at least it was

00:25:17.480 rare, it happens

00:25:18.420 of course, but it

00:25:19.620 was rare for

00:25:20.300 somebody who was

00:25:20.880 a Macintosh

00:25:21.640 user to say,

00:25:23.600 nah, I've

00:25:24.360 decided to change

00:25:25.060 my mind, I'll

00:25:25.700 become an IBM

00:25:26.360 PC user.

00:25:27.120 But it was

00:25:28.080 very common for

00:25:29.760 somebody to go

00:25:30.380 the other way and

00:25:31.320 just stay there.

00:25:32.900 And that's a

00:25:33.420 really powerful

00:25:34.500 frame.

00:25:35.200 As soon as you

00:25:35.600 hear that, you

00:25:36.500 say to yourself,

00:25:37.620 okay, that tells

00:25:38.420 me everything I

00:25:39.080 need to know, that

00:25:40.880 it's just a one-way

00:25:42.020 trip.

00:25:43.520 Now, let's take

00:25:44.640 that analogy, and

00:25:45.620 again, analogies

00:25:46.620 are not for

00:25:47.120 persuasion, they're

00:25:48.020 just to make

00:25:48.500 points.

00:25:49.420 Here's my point.

00:25:50.400 We've been

00:25:52.340 talking about

00:25:52.960 Elizabeth Warren

00:25:53.840 and Bernie

00:25:54.440 Sanders having

00:25:55.760 similar voters,

00:25:57.260 and that one

00:25:58.060 of them needs

00:25:58.600 to shrink in

00:26:00.300 order for the

00:26:00.840 other to grow

00:26:01.540 because it's the

00:26:02.300 same pool.

00:26:03.580 You know, that

00:26:03.960 neither of them

00:26:04.680 can grow until

00:26:05.580 one of them

00:26:06.220 declines in

00:26:07.420 popularity because

00:26:08.480 the voters are

00:26:09.340 going to go to

00:26:10.000 the other one.

00:26:11.180 Let me ask you

00:26:12.200 this.

00:26:12.540 After this

00:26:13.320 Elizabeth Warren

00:26:14.580 incident with

00:26:15.500 Bernie, how

00:26:17.200 many Bernie

00:26:18.000 voters could

00:26:20.120 go to

00:26:20.640 Elizabeth Warren

00:26:21.620 after she

00:26:23.180 stabbed their

00:26:23.900 candidate in

00:26:25.340 the back,

00:26:25.860 according to

00:26:26.360 them?

00:26:27.740 How many?

00:26:29.580 None?

00:26:30.700 Maybe none.

00:26:32.020 How many

00:26:32.640 Warren supporters,

00:26:34.860 let's say she

00:26:35.720 started falling

00:26:36.660 in the polls and

00:26:37.720 they wanted

00:26:38.340 somebody who

00:26:38.820 had similar

00:26:39.340 policies, how

00:26:40.740 many Warren

00:26:41.380 supporters would

00:26:42.280 be psychologically

00:26:44.040 primed and

00:26:46.040 ready and

00:26:46.760 willing,

00:26:47.200 to go to

00:26:48.360 Bernie?

00:26:51.000 Maybe all

00:26:51.740 of them.

00:26:52.660 Maybe all

00:26:53.400 of them.

00:26:54.200 Because it's

00:26:54.860 similar policies.

00:26:56.260 And who are

00:26:56.620 you going to

00:26:56.940 go to if

00:26:57.580 Elizabeth Warren

00:26:58.340 isn't going to

00:26:58.880 work out?

00:27:00.200 Where are you

00:27:00.600 going to go?

00:27:02.240 Because Bernie

00:27:02.900 didn't stab

00:27:04.620 Elizabeth Warren,

00:27:05.880 or at least it

00:27:06.500 doesn't look like

00:27:07.200 that.

00:27:07.600 I mean, some

00:27:07.980 people might

00:27:08.440 think that.

00:27:09.500 But I think

00:27:10.120 it's a one-way

00:27:10.760 trip.

00:27:11.980 So at this

00:27:12.740 point, if all

00:27:14.700 of the, let's

00:27:15.380 say the

00:27:15.720 progressives or

00:27:16.640 the socialists,

00:27:18.360 democratic

00:27:19.100 socialists, who

00:27:20.380 want one of

00:27:20.920 those two, the

00:27:22.920 decision's already

00:27:24.060 over.

00:27:25.560 Let me say that

00:27:26.460 again.

00:27:27.120 If you're

00:27:27.700 wondering which

00:27:28.320 way it's going

00:27:28.840 to go, will

00:27:29.440 Bernie's people

00:27:30.180 go to Warren

00:27:31.000 or will Warren's

00:27:31.940 people go to

00:27:32.660 Bernie?

00:27:34.020 That's over.

00:27:35.480 You don't have

00:27:36.220 to wonder

00:27:36.560 anymore.

00:27:37.300 There's only one

00:27:37.980 way it can go

00:27:39.040 at this point.

00:27:40.300 It can only go

00:27:41.180 from Warren to

00:27:41.840 Bernie.

00:27:42.780 The Bernie to

00:27:43.440 Warren path is

00:27:44.300 closed by what

00:27:45.720 Warren did to

00:27:46.420 Bernie.

00:27:46.720 It's closed.

00:27:47.880 So if you're

00:27:48.760 going to

00:27:48.940 predict, that's

00:27:50.840 an easy one.

00:27:52.440 Bernie will

00:27:53.120 rise and

00:27:54.340 Warren will

00:27:54.900 fall because

00:27:56.060 Warren can

00:27:56.700 never get

00:27:57.240 enough of

00:27:57.700 Bernie voters

00:27:58.420 after what she

00:27:59.060 did to him.

00:28:00.840 You know I'm

00:28:01.620 right.

00:28:03.600 I saw an

00:28:04.520 article that

00:28:05.460 probably needs

00:28:06.260 more studies to

00:28:07.500 back it up,

00:28:08.060 that the

00:28:09.000 birth control

00:28:09.600 pill shrinks

00:28:11.240 a part of

00:28:12.140 the brain

00:28:12.740 in women.

00:28:14.220 Or it might

00:28:15.540 be a weird

00:28:17.520 correlation, but

00:28:19.000 women who have 0.88

00:28:19.600 been on birth

00:28:20.480 control pills

00:28:21.240 had one

00:28:21.800 specific part

00:28:22.500 of the brain

00:28:22.880 that shrunk

00:28:23.420 6% on

00:28:25.140 average, or

00:28:26.300 it was smaller.

00:28:27.540 So let me

00:28:28.260 correct what I

00:28:29.640 just said.

00:28:30.640 The study did

00:28:31.500 not show that

00:28:32.780 being on the

00:28:33.440 pill shrunk

00:28:34.160 that part of

00:28:34.720 the brain.

00:28:35.660 It only showed

00:28:36.340 that people on

00:28:37.220 the pill had

00:28:37.800 on average a

00:28:38.900 smaller part of

00:28:39.560 that brain.

00:28:40.360 Could be some

00:28:41.120 other reason,

00:28:42.720 but it's hard

00:28:44.380 to know what

00:28:44.800 that would be.

00:28:46.500 However, I

00:28:49.120 ask you this.

00:28:50.580 Have you ever

00:28:51.120 had this experience

00:28:52.240 just anecdotally

00:28:53.400 of seeing somebody

00:28:55.100 who went on

00:28:55.840 birth control and

00:28:56.740 their personality

00:28:57.600 changed?

00:28:59.000 Have any of you

00:28:59.760 seen that?

00:29:02.380 I've seen it

00:29:03.240 twice.

00:29:05.120 I saw people

00:29:06.220 who basically

00:29:08.140 became different

00:29:08.900 people fairly

00:29:10.480 quickly after

00:29:11.460 going on

00:29:12.160 birth control

00:29:12.740 pills.

00:29:13.400 Now, I

00:29:14.140 don't know if

00:29:14.600 that's a

00:29:15.040 causation or

00:29:15.840 correlation,

00:29:16.860 because it's

00:29:17.680 just two

00:29:18.060 people, right?

00:29:18.780 It's just

00:29:19.060 anecdotal.

00:29:20.480 I'm not aware

00:29:21.040 of any studies

00:29:22.040 that would

00:29:22.340 back that up,

00:29:23.100 except this

00:29:23.780 one that I

00:29:24.400 was just

00:29:24.720 talking about.

00:29:26.120 It's hard for

00:29:26.940 me to imagine

00:29:27.540 that you could

00:29:28.200 put any kind

00:29:29.420 of pill in a

00:29:30.140 human being,

00:29:31.000 male or

00:29:31.620 female.

00:29:31.900 Oh my

00:29:33.940 God, I'm

00:29:34.280 seeing a lot

00:29:34.660 of yeses

00:29:35.100 here.

00:29:36.400 I wasn't

00:29:36.840 expecting that

00:29:37.500 really, frankly.

00:29:39.540 Now, I don't

00:29:40.020 know if all the

00:29:40.500 yeses are

00:29:40.940 coming from

00:29:41.440 men.

00:29:42.040 Now, be

00:29:42.360 aware, this

00:29:43.220 could be

00:29:43.580 confirmation

00:29:44.020 bias, right?

00:29:45.800 This is sort

00:29:46.600 of the perfect

00:29:47.620 confirmation

00:29:48.340 bias topic

00:29:50.680 in domain.

00:29:51.740 So, I'm not

00:29:52.400 going to make

00:29:52.720 a claim.

00:29:54.240 It's a

00:29:54.780 question.

00:29:56.120 And I

00:29:56.680 ask you this,

00:29:57.440 what are the

00:29:57.940 odds that putting

00:29:58.620 a powerful

00:29:59.380 hormone-altering

00:30:02.100 substance in

00:30:03.140 your body,

00:30:04.280 be you male

00:30:05.100 or female,

00:30:06.060 or whatever

00:30:07.460 gender flavor

00:30:09.560 you like,

00:30:11.960 what are the

00:30:12.560 odds it

00:30:12.900 wouldn't change

00:30:13.660 your personality?

00:30:15.600 Because without

00:30:16.480 being a doctor,

00:30:17.620 it feels to me

00:30:18.580 like the odds

00:30:19.340 would be zero.

00:30:21.340 Any change

00:30:22.640 to your

00:30:23.280 hormonal

00:30:25.020 structure

00:30:26.280 almost certainly

00:30:28.420 is going to

00:30:28.800 have an

00:30:29.060 effect on

00:30:29.560 who you

00:30:31.380 are at

00:30:31.900 some

00:30:32.100 fundamental

00:30:32.580 level.

00:30:33.280 Well, I've

00:30:33.620 never seen

00:30:34.020 this many

00:30:34.360 yeses.

00:30:36.940 That was,

00:30:37.940 okay,

00:30:39.680 how many,

00:30:44.620 I'm wondering

00:30:45.540 if this is

00:30:46.100 mostly men.

00:30:48.520 Because it's

00:30:49.480 hard for me to

00:30:50.000 tell the genders

00:30:50.660 of the people

00:30:51.420 who are

00:30:51.780 responding.

00:30:52.900 But I worry

00:30:53.660 that it's all

00:30:54.180 men because 0.99

00:30:54.800 then I worry

00:30:55.380 it's confirmation

00:30:56.000 bias.

00:30:56.540 But if the

00:30:58.720 women are 1.00

00:30:59.120 seeing it,

00:30:59.980 then I'd

00:31:00.380 feel a little

00:31:01.000 more suspicion

00:31:01.780 that this is

00:31:02.500 something that

00:31:02.960 needs to be

00:31:03.420 dug into a 0.97

00:31:04.040 little bit

00:31:04.340 deeper.

00:31:05.280 But just in

00:31:05.780 general,

00:31:06.640 changing your

00:31:07.320 hormonal

00:31:07.960 structure should

00:31:09.040 change how

00:31:09.560 you think.

00:31:10.280 If it

00:31:10.580 doesn't,

00:31:10.920 I'd be

00:31:11.140 surprised.

00:31:13.280 So let's

00:31:13.880 talk about

00:31:14.280 the

00:31:14.480 constitutional

00:31:15.180 or the

00:31:16.640 strategy for

00:31:17.280 impeachment.

00:31:17.640 It looks

00:31:18.240 like the

00:31:18.980 Republicans'

00:31:21.220 primary

00:31:21.660 strategy.

00:31:22.640 I don't

00:31:22.860 know if we

00:31:23.200 can tell for

00:31:23.860 sure.

00:31:25.100 Oh,

00:31:25.280 somebody

00:31:25.520 mentioned

00:31:25.860 the

00:31:26.080 prednisone.

00:31:26.660 Yeah,

00:31:26.820 when I was

00:31:27.200 in prednisone

00:31:27.940 just a few

00:31:29.320 weeks ago,

00:31:29.960 I was quite

00:31:31.280 aware of a

00:31:31.880 personality

00:31:32.460 alteration.

00:31:33.900 I was

00:31:34.200 definitely a

00:31:34.940 different person

00:31:36.920 for the few

00:31:38.120 weeks I was

00:31:38.620 on it.

00:31:39.520 So that's

00:31:41.340 the same

00:31:41.720 point.

00:31:43.640 So it

00:31:44.240 looks like

00:31:44.600 the Republican

00:31:46.340 strategy for

00:31:47.220 impeachment is

00:31:48.020 rather than

00:31:48.740 to argue the

00:31:49.500 details,

00:31:50.100 which would

00:31:50.440 be a gigantic

00:31:51.140 mistake,

00:31:51.740 and it's

00:31:52.560 the mistake

00:31:53.040 that they've

00:31:53.620 been taking

00:31:54.000 from the

00:31:54.480 start.

00:31:55.160 It looks

00:31:55.660 like,

00:31:56.100 especially

00:31:56.400 with Alan

00:31:57.200 Dershowitz on

00:31:57.800 the team,

00:31:58.640 they're going

00:31:59.020 to argue

00:31:59.400 that it

00:31:59.960 doesn't matter

00:32:00.440 what the

00:32:00.780 details are

00:32:01.580 because there's

00:32:03.960 nothing that's

00:32:04.560 alleged that's

00:32:06.340 impeachable.

00:32:07.900 So if the

00:32:09.400 Republicans are

00:32:10.560 planning this

00:32:11.620 approach,

00:32:12.680 I like it a

00:32:13.740 lot.

00:32:14.660 I like it a

00:32:15.380 lot.

00:32:16.280 And what it

00:32:16.900 would look like,

00:32:17.840 and here I'm

00:32:18.380 just playing the

00:32:20.000 game through.

00:32:20.580 I'm not

00:32:21.160 suggesting that

00:32:22.020 I'm predicting 0.90

00:32:22.620 this, but one

00:32:24.680 way that it

00:32:25.320 could go is

00:32:26.680 that the

00:32:27.340 Republicans

00:32:28.880 controlling the

00:32:29.700 Senate will

00:32:30.100 say, we're

00:32:30.960 going to open

00:32:31.380 up with

00:32:31.800 discussions on

00:32:32.900 whether or

00:32:33.680 not any

00:32:35.640 of the

00:32:36.100 allegations fit

00:32:38.780 the constitutional

00:32:39.760 test of even

00:32:40.720 being something

00:32:41.960 appropriate for

00:32:42.900 impeachment.

00:32:43.780 Before talking

00:32:44.680 about whether

00:32:45.160 it happened or

00:32:45.820 didn't happen,

00:32:46.860 who said

00:32:47.320 what, who

00:32:47.980 did a quid

00:32:48.480 pro quo,

00:32:49.200 who didn't,

00:32:49.740 what you're

00:32:50.080 expecting,

00:32:50.580 what Lev

00:32:51.500 Parnas said,

00:32:52.460 before getting

00:32:53.140 into any

00:32:54.220 evidence, just

00:32:56.120 say, here are

00:32:56.900 the two

00:32:57.220 charges, and

00:32:58.820 here's the

00:32:59.280 basis for

00:32:59.820 them.

00:33:01.040 Does the

00:33:01.740 Constitution say

00:33:02.720 this is

00:33:03.140 impeachable?

00:33:03.780 And the

00:33:03.960 answer is

00:33:04.400 no, not

00:33:06.120 even close.

00:33:10.640 So I

00:33:13.160 think that's

00:33:13.640 going to be a

00:33:13.960 good strategy,

00:33:14.700 and what I

00:33:15.180 would expect

00:33:15.920 is this.

00:33:17.180 I would

00:33:17.620 expect that

00:33:19.280 the Republicans

00:33:20.100 will hear the

00:33:21.200 constitutional

00:33:21.860 arguments, and

00:33:22.660 then they'll

00:33:23.000 put it to a

00:33:23.520 vote.

00:33:24.760 Now, can

00:33:26.140 they have two

00:33:26.720 votes?

00:33:28.280 Can they

00:33:28.700 vote and

00:33:29.220 say, okay,

00:33:30.060 let's say

00:33:30.620 that the,

00:33:31.320 against all

00:33:33.140 odds, let's

00:33:33.760 say that the

00:33:34.220 majority of

00:33:34.880 the Senate, and

00:33:36.100 I don't think

00:33:36.580 this could

00:33:36.920 happen, let's

00:33:37.820 say they

00:33:38.100 voted and

00:33:38.560 said, yeah,

00:33:39.760 on the

00:33:40.520 question number

00:33:41.220 one of

00:33:42.500 whether these

00:33:43.180 charges, if

00:33:43.980 they're true

00:33:44.400 charges, would

00:33:45.340 be impeachable,

00:33:46.800 we say yes.

00:33:48.120 That's

00:33:48.420 possible, right?

00:33:49.420 Then separately,

00:33:50.380 they'd have to

00:33:50.800 have some

00:33:51.120 other vote, I

00:33:51.780 guess, to

00:33:53.280 determine whether

00:33:54.060 the charges

00:33:54.700 are actually

00:33:55.180 true.

00:33:56.660 So that

00:33:57.400 would be a

00:33:57.920 separate thing.

00:33:58.700 I don't

00:33:58.980 think they

00:33:59.280 have to get

00:33:59.620 into the

00:33:59.960 facts.

00:34:00.360 I think

00:34:00.580 they'll

00:34:00.840 probably just

00:34:01.540 dismiss it

00:34:02.280 after the

00:34:03.580 constitutional

00:34:05.060 argument, which

00:34:06.380 by the way,

00:34:07.020 would be the

00:34:07.500 best way to

00:34:08.180 defend the

00:34:08.760 Constitution.

00:34:11.100 Best way to

00:34:12.000 defend the

00:34:12.540 Constitution is

00:34:13.980 to not let

00:34:14.740 them talk

00:34:15.240 about the

00:34:15.660 details.

00:34:16.620 Because if

00:34:17.060 you let

00:34:17.320 them talk

00:34:17.660 about the

00:34:18.040 details, you're

00:34:19.880 going to be

00:34:20.180 missing the

00:34:20.620 whole point.

00:34:21.500 And it

00:34:21.720 becomes exactly

00:34:22.700 what the

00:34:23.100 founders didn't

00:34:23.880 want it to

00:34:24.340 be, a

00:34:25.240 purely political

00:34:26.160 process, even

00:34:27.780 though we know

00:34:28.240 the outcome.

00:34:29.740 Why would you

00:34:30.500 not try to

00:34:31.340 defend the

00:34:31.880 Constitution

00:34:32.420 while you

00:34:32.980 could, if

00:34:33.460 you're a

00:34:33.800 Republican

00:34:34.120 senator, by

00:34:35.460 saying, let's

00:34:38.660 say that the

00:34:39.180 victim here is

00:34:39.900 the Constitution.

00:34:41.600 So let's

00:34:42.100 try to revive

00:34:43.060 the Constitution a

00:34:44.120 little bit.

00:34:45.240 there was a

00:34:48.720 disturbing video

00:34:50.620 of a crowd in

00:34:51.820 Baltimore who

00:34:52.420 were sort of

00:34:52.880 attacking a

00:34:53.520 policeman who

00:34:54.920 had a suspect

00:34:56.580 on the ground.

00:34:58.120 You may have

00:34:58.500 seen it.

00:34:58.920 It's a viral

00:34:59.320 video now.

00:35:00.360 So the police

00:35:00.860 officer was

00:35:02.260 trying to get

00:35:03.320 control of a

00:35:04.860 perp on the

00:35:05.640 ground, and

00:35:06.260 other people were

00:35:06.840 coming up, and

00:35:07.340 it looked like

00:35:07.680 they were kicking

00:35:08.720 the policeman, etc.

00:35:09.940 And so there's,

00:35:11.640 of course, a

00:35:12.280 call for those

00:35:13.080 people who were

00:35:13.740 assaulting the

00:35:14.340 policeman to be

00:35:15.800 punished.

00:35:16.320 And you say to

00:35:16.800 yourself, well,

00:35:17.520 good luck with

00:35:18.120 that, because

00:35:19.540 these were, you

00:35:20.520 know, random

00:35:21.060 people who kicked

00:35:22.140 the policeman and

00:35:22.900 ran away.

00:35:24.200 Like, what are

00:35:24.860 you going to do?

00:35:26.620 But, it's on

00:35:28.400 video.

00:35:29.680 All right, but

00:35:30.100 still, what are

00:35:30.540 you going to do?

00:35:31.080 It's hard to

00:35:31.820 identify people just

00:35:33.300 because you have

00:35:33.740 them on video,

00:35:34.520 right?

00:35:36.000 Well, not

00:35:36.760 anymore.

00:35:37.100 Remember I told

00:35:37.860 you yesterday

00:35:38.340 there's a tool,

00:35:39.940 an app called

00:35:40.700 Clearview AI.

00:35:42.700 It was the

00:35:43.040 front page of

00:35:43.620 the New York

00:35:43.980 Times because

00:35:44.640 it's a gigantic

00:35:45.660 controversy about

00:35:47.560 privacy and

00:35:48.780 whether this is

00:35:49.360 going to go too

00:35:49.900 far, and it's

00:35:51.200 going to cause a

00:35:51.780 dystopian and

00:35:52.600 everything, and

00:35:53.240 we're losing all

00:35:53.880 our privacy.

00:35:54.720 So those issues

00:35:55.480 are important, all

00:35:56.900 worth talking

00:35:57.440 about.

00:35:57.760 I think the

00:35:58.100 ACLU is getting

00:36:00.080 involved.

00:36:00.700 I mean, it's

00:36:00.980 really, it's

00:36:01.920 become this big

00:36:02.620 deal.

00:36:03.480 But, here's my

00:36:04.520 point.

00:36:04.880 that app, all

00:36:08.640 it needs, in

00:36:09.520 all likelihood,

00:36:10.280 all it needs is

00:36:11.500 a screen grab

00:36:12.540 from the video

00:36:13.440 of the crowd, and

00:36:15.060 a couple of

00:36:15.560 screen grabs that

00:36:16.380 get the faces, and

00:36:18.360 law enforcement

00:36:20.280 will probably have

00:36:21.480 immediately the

00:36:23.600 social media and

00:36:25.300 real names of

00:36:26.780 the perpetrators

00:36:27.520 in the crowd

00:36:28.220 because they have

00:36:29.760 the technology

00:36:30.420 now.

00:36:31.200 They probably

00:36:31.940 won't have to

00:36:32.540 ask people, they

00:36:33.560 probably won't

00:36:34.100 have to ask the

00:36:34.820 public, they

00:36:35.920 probably won't

00:36:36.440 have to go

00:36:36.900 door-to-door, they 0.91

00:36:37.660 probably won't

00:36:38.120 need any

00:36:38.520 witnesses, they

00:36:39.580 probably just

00:36:40.020 take the security

00:36:40.800 camera video, run

00:36:42.520 it through the

00:36:43.140 Clearview AI

00:36:44.100 app, and it's

00:36:45.440 going to spit

00:36:45.880 out their names.

00:36:47.580 Think about

00:36:48.220 that.

00:36:48.900 I mean, man,

00:36:49.860 it's a new

00:36:50.180 world.

00:36:50.780 All right.

00:36:51.080 All right.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 19, 2020

Episode 792 Scott Adams PART 1of2： Impeachment Stains, Mexican Cartels Theory

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