Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 800 Scott Adams： The Bolton ＂Bombshell＂ and Coronavirus

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in here. It's time to talk about all the stuff in the news while having coffee with Scott Adams, and as luck would have it on Scott Adams.

00:00:18.680 And if you'd like to enjoy simultaneously sipping, it's one of the great bonding experiences of your life, all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamines of the day, the thing that makes everything better. The simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:48.680 Oh yeah. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. So here's a weird thing. Last night and yesterday, I decided to re-watch the original Star Trek series. Do you remember the original Star Trek with William Shatner from, I don't know, the 60s or whatever it is?

00:01:13.840 And I haven't seen it in so many decades that it was like watching it brand new. And I was really enjoying it because it's sort of a glimpse into the past of how society was and, you know, on board the Starship Enterprise.

00:01:29.040 If you don't remember the original series, I'm watching the first several episodes, re-watching them, and it was just me-tooing all over the place. The entire Starship Enterprise was just everybody me-tooing each other.

00:01:43.040 So that part was hilarious. But here's the funny part. So I'm watching. I've never done this before. My entire life, I have never sat down to re-watch all of the original Star Trek since I saw them when I was a kid.

00:01:59.540 And I wake up this morning and there's a message on Twitter from William Shatner. My life is so weird because, I guess it was yesterday, he had asked on Twitter, I follow him on Twitter, and he had asked if people had seen the new Picard TV show.

00:02:20.880 It's a series and it's on, I think it's only on Amazon. No, it's on CBS All Access, which you can see through Amazon and probably directly.

00:02:31.840 And I think I was probably the first person who responded and said that I watched it and I liked it. It was actually really well done. Better than I thought, actually.

00:02:40.560 And this morning I wake up to see a tweet from William Shatner saying that Dilbert likes it. I mean, referring to me, of course, that Dilbert likes it with a smiley face.

00:02:54.900 And I'm thinking, William Shatner knows who I am. And I thought that might be the coolest thing that ever happened to me in my entire life.

00:03:04.020 And I've had a pretty cool life. But anyway, I'm just being a fanboy here and enjoying that a little bit.

00:03:13.020 All right, everybody's here. Let's talk about the news. I'm not going to talk about the Kobe stuff. I think day two should be just about the family.

00:03:21.960 I just want to point out one, just one positive thing about that.

00:03:26.860 You know, everybody feels the same. It was quite a punch in the gut for the entire country.

00:03:34.020 But I was watching one replay of where he had said that when he was 15 years old, he made a promise to himself that someday he would be remembered as a talented overachiever.

00:03:48.440 Now, what he meant was that he would work hard so that whatever talent he had, he would take it to its maximum overachieving level.

00:04:01.460 And I thought that's very much what I talk about when I talk about the differences between wanting something and deciding.

00:04:12.840 Because when I got my original contract to be a syndicated cartoonist, there was a long, long path from getting a contract to actually succeeding.

00:04:22.300 And I made myself a similar promise.

00:04:25.440 I promised myself that I would never be able to look back and say that I didn't succeed because I didn't work hard enough.

00:04:33.980 And I think Kobe made the same promise, that he would never look back and say, I didn't work hard enough.

00:04:43.440 And it looks like he and I both kept our promises to ourselves.

00:04:47.880 So I point that out because it's the difference between wanting something, in which you don't dedicate your life to getting it, you just want it, versus deciding.

00:04:58.300 Kobe decided.

00:05:00.520 If you could take away one story from Kobe, it's not about wanting all the things he got.

00:05:07.280 It was about deciding.

00:05:08.560 It's a big difference.

00:05:11.200 And once you get that difference, suddenly life is more approachable.

00:05:15.480 All right.

00:05:15.820 That's enough about that sad topic.

00:05:20.220 Today we have a Bolton bombshell.

00:05:22.600 It's a bombshell, I tell you.

00:05:24.540 And I feel as though the world had to wait for me to wake up to put this in perspective.

00:05:30.180 So the alleged bombshell is that Bolton's book manuscript, which is floating around and got leaked, seems to indicate that Bolton had conversations with the president,

00:05:43.980 in which the president said he had great concerns about Ukraine and thought they interfered in the election in 2016,

00:05:50.600 and that he wanted to withhold the aid until they looked into the Biden-Burisma election stuff.

00:06:04.080 Now, the way it was being reported until I woke up was that this is bad for the president.

00:06:11.840 And I kept reading it and thinking, well, what am I not understanding here?

00:06:17.000 This isn't bad for the president.

00:06:18.680 Why is everybody saying it's bad for the president?

00:06:22.220 Am I missing something?

00:06:25.020 Two things.

00:06:26.640 Number one, have I not been telling you from day one that the president's lawyers are making a mistake in engaging on the details?

00:06:36.400 Because if you're going to be arguing the quid pro quo, you're in the weeds.

00:06:41.000 And there might be something that comes out that makes your argument a little less strong over time.

00:06:47.340 And there it is.

00:06:48.680 All right.

00:06:49.540 So the very reason that I said it was a mistake to get into the weeds just happened.

00:06:55.900 This is exactly what you didn't want to happen.

00:06:59.560 Arguing that there was no quid pro quo and then the most credible person with the most information comes out toward the end of the process and says,

00:07:08.260 Oh, yeah, there was plenty of it.

00:07:11.540 Worst.

00:07:12.940 You know, I'm no legal expert.

00:07:15.040 But to me, that looked like the trap all along.

00:07:17.700 And it looked like the worst strategy to depend on that no quid pro quo thing as that being the key to your defense.

00:07:26.020 Now, of course, that's not the only key to their defense, because Dershowitz is going to come on today, I think, or tomorrow.

00:07:33.420 I'm not sure of the schedule.

00:07:34.440 But Dershowitz will argue, we believe, that it doesn't matter if any of it's true.

00:07:41.140 It doesn't matter what the president did or did not do.

00:07:43.740 Even if you stipulated it's all true, it doesn't rise to impeachable.

00:07:49.180 That's the argument that I've been making since day one.

00:07:52.660 But it's even better.

00:07:55.100 I woke up this morning and realized that Bolton had proven the president's case.

00:08:01.600 Why?

00:08:02.540 If that's not obvious to you, then you've really been bamboozled, if you will.

00:08:11.160 And let me tell you how you've been bamboozled.

00:08:14.640 Jonathan Turley made this observation.

00:08:17.100 Now, you'll notice that this is similar to things I've said, which is, of course, why I think it's genius.

00:08:22.160 And he was talking about Stephanopoulos was interviewing Senator Lankford.

00:08:27.720 And this is what Turley tweeted.

00:08:29.400 He said, Stephanopoulos just asked Senator Lankford if he thinks it is okay to solicit a foreign government to interfere in our elections.

00:08:40.480 See where I'm going with this?

00:08:41.880 Much like CNN's biased question on Sanders, the question assumed that Trump was asking for election interference and asking for a corruption investigation.

00:08:54.300 That's right.

00:08:55.460 Jonathan Turley has accurately, because I said the same thing, so I think it's accurate, said that they're using a magic trick.

00:09:03.600 And the magic trick is to keep presenting things as though the question of why the president was acting the way he was acting is settled.

00:09:12.420 And the trick is to make you think, well, there was only one reason, only one possible reason the president could be doing what he was doing vis-a-vis Ukraine, and that was for his own political gain.

00:09:28.700 And Turley points out, and Turley points out, that's not an evidence.

00:09:33.320 It's an assumption, not an evidence.

00:09:36.080 John Bolton just filled in the assumption.

00:09:39.160 John Bolton, if the manuscript is accurate, and if what Biden says, as reported in the manuscript, is accurate,

00:09:46.900 he's reporting that the president really believed that Ukraine had interfered in the election in 2016.

00:09:55.360 Now, if that is established, and we take that as true, that according to Bolton, it was very clear that the president was genuinely concerned, because he said it.

00:10:08.340 You don't have to read his mind, he actually said, in words, that he was concerned about, that he thought Ukraine screwed him in 2016, or whatever.

00:10:19.260 So, now that we have an evidence that the president had a genuine concern about Ukraine, we're done.

00:10:28.140 We're done.

00:10:29.320 Because that's all you needed to know.

00:10:31.320 The magic trick was to make you not think about that question.

00:10:34.400 But the question is, was there any legitimate presidential reason, good for the country, good for the nation, for Trump to press Ukraine?

00:10:43.860 And the answer is yes.

00:10:45.180 And Bolton just confirmed it, at least indirectly, through the manuscript.

00:10:51.640 So, given that, I think the defense just got a lot easier.

00:10:57.400 Now that we know the president had a genuine concern that was outside of his own political advantage, that's the end of the story.

00:11:08.660 As long as he had a political, as long as he had a national interest, there's nothing else to ask.

00:11:14.480 So, I think that we know where that's all heading.

00:11:16.780 Now, is it my imagination, or is Adam Schiff putting the entire country in danger, Adam Schiff and Pelosi and Nadler and all the people pushing the impeachment?

00:11:31.140 Because, correct me if I'm wrong, but our government is failing us right now for this coronavirus.

00:11:39.940 They are not doing what we know has to be done.

00:11:44.300 You and I are not experts, but even we know all travel has to be shut down with China. 0.99

00:11:49.880 Even we know that.

00:11:51.760 Now, has the government done that?

00:11:55.540 I've not heard that.

00:11:57.120 Is the government checking people coming from those destinations that are a problem?

00:12:01.180 Yes.

00:12:01.980 They say they are, and that's very good.

00:12:03.800 But, we also know, according to today's reporting, there might be as many as 44,000 people who are carrying the virus who have not yet shown symptoms.

00:12:16.320 Let me say that again.

00:12:18.040 There might be as many as 44,000 people who don't have symptoms, which means screening won't catch them.

00:12:26.520 Shut down the travel.

00:12:28.600 Well, if our government is not shutting it down, and as far as I can tell, they're not, and they're not telling you why they're doing what they're doing,

00:12:39.320 because it could be they have good reasons and we just haven't heard them,

00:12:42.880 but if they're not doing one of those two things, shutting everything down, or explaining to us why they're not,

00:12:50.380 there is no argument can be made that the government is doing the work of the people.

00:12:56.200 None.

00:12:56.640 Now, I don't know who you blame.

00:12:58.700 Is that just Trump?

00:13:00.540 Is that Congress?

00:13:01.700 I don't know.

00:13:03.000 Shouldn't Congress be, you know, be on the president every day to close the airports?

00:13:08.220 Shouldn't they be, you know, stepping up?

00:13:11.860 I don't see it.

00:13:12.800 I don't even see them talking about it.

00:13:17.240 And so, I think we have a genuine example, and I don't know if anybody could argue this.

00:13:24.000 Is there any counter-argument to this?

00:13:26.020 I'm open to it, but I'd like to hear the counter-argument.

00:13:29.500 What is the argument that says that Schiff and Pelosi and Adler have not put this country at tremendous risk

00:13:36.040 by taking our entire government off the field during a crisis?

00:13:41.840 This is one of the worst things I've ever seen.

00:13:48.060 It's one of the worst things I've ever seen any government do.

00:13:53.060 They have made themselves irrelevant by concentrating on this one political thing while leaving the country exposed.

00:14:01.240 It's a complete fiduciary responsibility collapse.

00:14:06.660 Complete collapse.

00:14:08.160 At the moment, we barely have a government.

00:14:12.260 At least this week, until this stuff is over.

00:14:15.960 All right.

00:14:17.200 But, so let's, and of course, we have to imagine that whatever is being reported about the severity of this coronavirus outbreak,

00:14:28.160 it's probably a lot worse.

00:14:30.460 It's probably worse.

00:14:31.380 One expert says that it could be doubling every six days.

00:14:37.220 Doubling every six days.

00:14:39.340 It doesn't take many days of doubling to get to a global pandemic, and I would argue we're already there, actually.

00:14:48.020 All right.

00:14:50.400 Let's talk about, let's talk about Trump's tweet that is being considered threatening. 0.99

00:15:02.460 Trump tweeted that Shifty Adam Schiff is a corrupt politician and probably a very sick man. 0.98

00:15:10.900 He likes to throw that in there. 0.97

00:15:12.660 And then he said, he has not paid the price yet for what he has done to our country.

00:15:21.580 And, of course, you know, he has not paid the price makes it look like he's threatening him from the office of the president,

00:15:28.420 so it looks ominous and he's a dictator and all that.

00:15:32.220 But isn't that the right question?

00:15:34.720 You know, if you sue somebody and you lose, you have to pay the legal fees, right?

00:15:40.020 There's always an expense of attacking somebody and being wrong.

00:15:44.600 If you kill somebody because you thought they were robbing your house and they weren't, well, you're still in trouble, right?

00:15:51.360 So going after somebody and being wrong, which is what impeachment looks like at this point because we know how it all ends,

00:16:00.780 it looks like something that needs to be punished.

00:16:05.440 In other words, there has to be repercussions.

00:16:10.800 Now, that doesn't mean, you know, you put him in jail, but there needs to be repercussions.

00:16:18.500 I mean, there ought to be big ones.

00:16:20.520 I mean, the Russian collusion thing alone, given that Schiff was telling us he's seen evidence that we haven't seen and the president's guilty,

00:16:30.320 I mean, that should be automatic removed from office for that performance.

00:16:35.460 And then he just does it again?

00:16:37.440 He just does it a second time?

00:16:39.380 He does something that anybody should be fired for, the Russian collusion thing,

00:16:44.680 and yet he just gets to do it again?

00:16:47.100 What kind of system do we have where the guy who made the biggest mistake in American politics

00:16:52.200 that wasn't, let's say, attacking Iraq for weapons of mass destruction?

00:16:57.360 Probably Schiff has made the biggest, you know, collectively, the biggest set of mistakes any politician has made in modern history,

00:17:04.680 except for that one, the Iraq one.

00:17:07.080 And he got promoted for it?

00:17:11.500 I mean, that actually happened, right?

00:17:12.880 I mean, in a sense, he got promoted, because he's now the star of the new Ukraine thing.

00:17:19.760 In what world does complete failure and lying and damaging the country get you promoted?

00:17:25.620 Well, I guess that's the democratic model.

00:17:28.520 He gets a participation trophy no matter how well he does.

00:17:35.900 All right.

00:17:36.920 Yeah, so the system seems totally corrupt,

00:17:39.840 and let's hope that things get cleaned up a little bit today.

00:17:46.900 Now, here's some extra questions about this Bolton manuscript.

00:17:51.620 How reliable is it?

00:17:54.980 Now, I'm saying that if it is reliable, that's the end of the case,

00:17:58.400 because the president's cleared.

00:17:59.880 It would clear him.

00:18:01.800 But can you believe what's in the transcript?

00:18:04.920 Let me give you a little context,

00:18:07.940 because, you know, I'm an author,

00:18:10.660 so I see enough of the industry that I have a sense of what's going on.

00:18:14.480 Now, I have not had the experience that Bolton probably had,

00:18:18.580 because I don't write that kind of book that's a tell-all.

00:18:22.220 But probably there was some point

00:18:24.600 at which Bolton and his publisher had a conversation like this.

00:18:29.780 Hey, there are a lot of books about Trump.

00:18:34.120 You need to stand out.

00:18:35.640 Like, what's your claim that's really going to make your book

00:18:38.860 get a lot of attention and stand out?

00:18:42.040 And, of course, the obvious thing would be something

00:18:44.220 around the Ukraine situation.

00:18:46.020 That would be the thing that would sell this book.

00:18:49.380 Now, I'm guessing that Bolton is not the only author of the book.

00:18:54.880 This is just a guess.

00:18:55.920 Yes, probably there's a ghostwriter,

00:18:59.200 because unless Bolton has a background as an author,

00:19:02.200 probably it's hard to sit down and write a whole book.

00:19:05.960 He'd probably get a ghostwriter.

00:19:08.800 Now, the ghostwriter would be working with an editor or two

00:19:13.720 at the publisher.

00:19:16.060 So there would be at least three authors involved.

00:19:22.400 There's the editors, the ghostwriters,

00:19:24.340 and then there's Bolton himself.

00:19:26.760 Is it one of the odds

00:19:27.780 that the way the current draft is written

00:19:31.560 is exactly what Bolton would have written

00:19:34.480 if nobody else had been involved?

00:19:37.340 What are the odds that the way it's presented

00:19:39.580 is just exactly the way Bolton would have done it on his own?

00:19:45.500 Low.

00:19:46.860 Yeah, the odds are low,

00:19:48.120 because there are two other people involved

00:19:50.160 who are going to want this to be a big book.

00:19:52.620 Now, of course, he wants it to be a big, big book, too,

00:19:56.280 or else he wouldn't be doing it, probably.

00:19:58.460 But the publisher really wants it to be a big book.

00:20:00.920 And those conversations go like this.

00:20:02.900 All right, do you remember exactly

00:20:04.300 what the president said in that meeting?

00:20:07.840 No.

00:20:08.940 I don't remember exact words

00:20:10.940 because I don't remember exact words.

00:20:13.180 Who does, really?

00:20:14.120 So now Bolton has to write about an event

00:20:18.060 in which, in all likelihood,

00:20:20.540 he would not remember exact wording.

00:20:23.240 He has a memory of basically the idea that happened.

00:20:27.760 So he words it one way,

00:20:29.960 and then the editor looks at it,

00:20:31.680 or maybe the ghostwriter writes it first,

00:20:34.100 and the editor looks at it,

00:20:35.660 and they say,

00:20:36.200 you know,

00:20:37.080 if you change this sentence a little bit,

00:20:40.580 you really would sell more books.

00:20:43.180 Now, would that change to the sentence?

00:20:45.060 This is all speculative hypothetical.

00:20:47.340 I'm not saying that this happened.

00:20:48.940 I'm saying that

00:20:49.720 it would be normal in this process

00:20:51.780 that there's a bit of a

00:20:54.140 committee approach to every sentence

00:20:57.640 if the sentence is

00:20:59.040 the bombshell sentence.

00:21:01.960 So I would say that

00:21:02.820 that little bit of writing

00:21:04.040 that gets to the point

00:21:05.220 of what the president was talking about

00:21:06.940 with Ukraine

00:21:07.720 and withholding the money, etc.,

00:21:09.620 is probably a combination

00:21:11.980 of one person's faulty memory

00:21:14.880 plus two other people

00:21:16.820 trying to shade it a little bit

00:21:18.800 so it was the most provocative.

00:21:21.380 Is it still accurate?

00:21:23.940 Is it?

00:21:25.040 Could be.

00:21:26.460 You can't rule it out.

00:21:28.040 It's totally possible

00:21:29.640 that it's a perfectly clear

00:21:33.460 and accurate explanation

00:21:35.520 of what happened.

00:21:36.600 That's possible.

00:21:37.980 You know the other possibility?

00:21:40.160 It's not.

00:21:41.540 There's not an accurate explanation

00:21:44.280 of what happened.

00:21:45.280 How would you know?

00:21:47.220 Will you and I ever know?

00:21:48.900 The answer is no.

00:21:50.860 What if I told you about situations

00:21:52.860 where we have a lot of money at stake,

00:21:56.100 and here's the key part,

00:21:57.640 no way to get caught?

00:22:01.140 What do I tell you always happens

00:22:02.940 when there's a lot of money at stake

00:22:05.260 if somebody does something sneaky

00:22:08.140 or illegal,

00:22:09.860 in this case just sneaky,

00:22:11.180 and there's no chance of being punished for it?

00:22:14.880 None.

00:22:16.120 No chance.

00:22:17.000 Suppose it was just a private conversation

00:22:19.440 between Bolton and the president,

00:22:21.260 and it wasn't recorded,

00:22:23.460 and maybe he didn't talk about it directly afterwards,

00:22:25.960 and there's no way to prove it happened

00:22:27.680 or it didn't happen.

00:22:29.280 Bolton would have the opportunity

00:22:30.920 to make a gigantic amount of money

00:22:34.340 by wording the meeting,

00:22:36.800 which cannot be verified

00:22:38.340 in just the way that makes that book sell.

00:22:42.260 Now,

00:22:43.760 do I think that Bolton

00:22:45.580 is the kind of guy

00:22:46.800 who would sell out his integrity

00:22:48.980 to sell a few extra books?

00:22:51.660 Actually, no.

00:22:52.980 I have no reason to believe

00:22:54.600 that he's that kind of guy.

00:22:55.680 Do you?

00:22:56.920 Have you ever heard anything

00:22:58.400 in his entire history

00:22:59.660 that would suggest 0.99

00:23:01.360 he would just make some crap up 0.99

00:23:03.740 to sell some extra books? 0.92

00:23:05.560 It doesn't really sound like him,

00:23:07.520 does it?

00:23:09.020 I mean, there's one thing,

00:23:10.120 you know, being wrong.

00:23:11.180 There's one, you know,

00:23:11.880 you can criticize him

00:23:13.180 for being a hawk.

00:23:14.800 But I don't know

00:23:15.740 that anybody's ever called him a liar.

00:23:19.480 It feels like you would have heard that by now, right?

00:23:22.080 So he's probably quite credible.

00:23:24.340 But I don't know

00:23:26.460 if he would back the version in the book.

00:23:29.680 If you put him under oath,

00:23:32.240 would he say that exactly the way

00:23:34.160 it's written in that draft manuscript,

00:23:36.580 which might not even be the final thing?

00:23:39.300 Would he say that's exactly what happened?

00:23:42.000 Don't know.

00:23:42.960 Because two other people

00:23:44.020 were probably involved

00:23:45.380 in writing those sentences.

00:23:47.460 So, we have a mystery.

00:23:50.220 Will any of this cause

00:23:51.200 more people to be called as witnesses?

00:23:54.080 I say no.

00:23:56.000 Because I think

00:23:56.980 whenever Dershowitz talks,

00:24:00.300 he's going to basically say

00:24:02.920 it doesn't matter what the details are,

00:24:05.260 even if everything that is alleged,

00:24:07.380 even if everything Bolton said is true.

00:24:10.560 Completely irrelevant

00:24:11.620 because, first of all,

00:24:12.980 it was within the job description

00:24:14.680 of the president,

00:24:16.320 given that we have evidence

00:24:17.880 he really believed Ukraine

00:24:19.240 was a risk to our elections.

00:24:20.740 and that's all the evidence.

00:24:23.200 That's what it says.

00:24:25.500 And that it wouldn't matter

00:24:26.660 because it's not impeachable anyway.

00:24:29.820 So, I don't think

00:24:30.740 there's any chance

00:24:31.900 of calling witnesses.

00:24:35.200 Although the Republicans

00:24:37.140 might even want it more.

00:24:38.460 because if all Bolton has

00:24:40.800 is this,

00:24:42.240 what if this is all Bolton has?

00:24:44.480 And it completely clears

00:24:45.620 the president.

00:24:46.320 That's it.

00:24:47.520 Wouldn't you be willing

00:24:48.560 to trade more of that?

00:24:51.120 You know,

00:24:51.340 because presumably,

00:24:52.820 if Bolton were called,

00:24:54.420 the worst case scenario

00:24:55.740 is that he says

00:24:56.880 the same thing

00:24:57.480 that's in the book.

00:24:58.800 Because if there were

00:24:59.880 even worse things

00:25:01.060 in the book,

00:25:01.900 you'd already know about him.

00:25:03.920 So, that's got to be

00:25:04.940 the worst thing

00:25:05.640 because that's why it leaked.

00:25:07.060 If that's the worst thing,

00:25:08.940 it basically totally

00:25:10.000 clears the president

00:25:10.880 because it says

00:25:11.840 the president's

00:25:12.580 clearly was indicating

00:25:14.900 that he actually

00:25:15.720 cared about Ukraine,

00:25:16.780 not just the political

00:25:17.740 fallout from it.

00:25:19.520 That's what we know so far.

00:25:22.980 Do you have the quote

00:25:24.060 from the book?

00:25:24.740 I do not.

00:25:25.380 I do not have

00:25:26.540 the actual quote.

00:25:28.040 And I don't know

00:25:28.780 that there is

00:25:29.580 an actual quote.

00:25:31.280 Maybe somebody

00:25:31.920 can find that.

00:25:32.740 When I was looking quickly

00:25:33.800 before I got on live here,

00:25:35.180 I was looking

00:25:36.260 for the actual quote

00:25:37.260 and I only saw

00:25:38.160 paraphrases of it.

00:25:40.680 So, I don't know

00:25:41.460 if we even have

00:25:42.000 the right quote.

00:25:43.840 So, that's the other

00:25:44.640 possibility is that

00:25:45.800 it's simply being

00:25:46.720 misquoted.

00:25:47.600 And if you looked

00:25:48.200 at the manuscript

00:25:48.840 yourself,

00:25:50.120 you might say to yourself,

00:25:51.200 that's not what it says.

00:25:52.660 Because we've seen

00:25:53.460 this happen over and over.

00:25:55.060 We saw people look

00:25:56.020 at the transcript

00:25:56.780 of the Ukraine call

00:25:57.860 and people had

00:25:58.560 different opinions.

00:25:59.740 We know that Schiff

00:26:00.640 looked at the stuff

00:26:02.300 in the SCIF

00:26:02.940 and had a different

00:26:04.400 opinion than Nunes

00:26:05.260 and they were looking

00:26:05.920 at the same documents.

00:26:07.640 So, it's 100%

00:26:09.480 believable

00:26:11.020 that the quote

00:26:13.040 doesn't sound

00:26:13.980 exactly the way

00:26:14.840 people are saying

00:26:15.540 it sounds.

00:26:16.600 Totally possible.

00:26:17.860 At least 50%

00:26:18.820 possible.

00:26:22.220 So, this is the

00:26:23.400 least bombshell-y

00:26:24.580 thing I've ever seen.

00:26:26.020 But, it's all

00:26:26.880 they got.

00:26:27.280 Yeah, so I understand

00:26:31.420 there was at least

00:26:32.460 one rocket attack

00:26:33.640 on the embassy

00:26:34.460 in Iraq.

00:26:35.860 I don't know

00:26:36.760 if we know

00:26:37.240 where it came from.

00:26:38.120 I did predict

00:26:39.020 that even if things

00:26:40.820 settled down

00:26:41.380 a great deal

00:26:42.000 after the killing

00:26:42.820 of General Salmane,

00:26:44.900 that even if things

00:26:45.780 settled down

00:26:46.400 a great deal,

00:26:47.880 that there was

00:26:48.640 a 100% chance

00:26:49.580 you're still going

00:26:50.100 to see random

00:26:50.940 rocket attacks.

00:26:52.060 Because I don't think

00:26:52.880 that Iran necessarily 0.99

00:26:54.120 has 100% control

00:26:55.960 over every rocket

00:26:57.540 that gets fired

00:26:58.300 by every proxy group.

00:27:00.880 You know,

00:27:01.100 some groups may be

00:27:02.600 more loosely attached

00:27:03.940 to the government,

00:27:04.860 some more.

00:27:06.140 So, there was no chance

00:27:07.420 that it would drop

00:27:07.960 to zero.

00:27:09.660 But, you know,

00:27:11.320 if it doesn't get

00:27:11.920 much worse,

00:27:12.520 I think we're

00:27:12.960 in good shape.

00:27:14.400 I'm still predicting

00:27:15.560 that there will be

00:27:16.700 a Middle East

00:27:17.560 peace plan

00:27:18.520 because we've never

00:27:19.980 had this situation

00:27:21.420 before.

00:27:22.460 We've never had

00:27:23.440 the people who

00:27:24.160 need to agree

00:27:25.080 so weak

00:27:26.860 compared to the people

00:27:28.360 who want them

00:27:28.980 to agree

00:27:29.520 who are very strong.

00:27:31.380 You know,

00:27:31.580 we're energy

00:27:32.720 independent.

00:27:34.280 We have really

00:27:35.000 strong leaders

00:27:35.760 from, you know,

00:27:36.900 Israel to the United

00:27:37.720 States to Saudi Arabia.

00:27:40.100 Say what you will

00:27:40.940 about, if you like,

00:27:42.520 how they act,

00:27:44.120 but they're strong,

00:27:45.360 decisive,

00:27:46.100 deal-making leaders.

00:27:47.600 And if they can't

00:27:48.540 get this done,

00:27:49.220 it's not doable

00:27:49.960 because it's the

00:27:51.680 strongest team

00:27:52.300 that's ever been

00:27:52.940 involved.

00:27:55.080 So I think

00:27:55.940 there's entirely

00:27:56.580 a good chance

00:27:57.320 that by the end

00:27:57.840 of this year

00:27:58.240 you're going to

00:27:58.600 see a Middle East 0.60

00:27:59.600 peace plan,

00:28:00.700 mostly involving

00:28:01.480 the Palestinian

00:28:02.580 situation,

00:28:04.020 that looks pretty

00:28:06.440 good.

00:28:07.820 And you might

00:28:08.240 say to yourself,

00:28:09.080 that looks

00:28:09.660 surprisingly good.

00:28:11.920 And we're down

00:28:12.540 to one person

00:28:13.360 who has to agree,

00:28:14.880 just the Ayatollah,

00:28:16.760 just one person,

00:28:19.360 and you have

00:28:19.840 Middle East peace.

00:28:20.960 That's it,

00:28:21.440 just one.

00:28:22.320 Have we ever

00:28:22.900 been at a point

00:28:23.620 where only one

00:28:24.320 person has to

00:28:25.060 decide for peace

00:28:26.500 instead of war,

00:28:27.360 and war is

00:28:28.080 disastrous?

00:28:29.340 How hard would

00:28:30.220 it be to decide

00:28:31.240 you want peace

00:28:32.140 when the alternative

00:28:33.460 is complete

00:28:34.180 destruction?

00:28:34.980 It's not hard.

00:28:37.120 And I think

00:28:37.840 we're right there.

00:28:39.520 All right.

00:28:43.260 Scott,

00:28:43.880 a Middle East

00:28:44.400 peace plan will

00:28:45.100 never happen.

00:28:46.440 Come on,

00:28:47.020 stop the BS,

00:28:48.700 stranger says

00:28:49.640 in all caps.

00:28:51.900 You might not

00:28:53.280 know this,

00:28:53.780 but screaming

00:28:55.100 at me in all

00:28:55.800 caps did not

00:28:57.580 make your point

00:28:58.600 more believable.

00:29:00.560 Now,

00:29:01.080 I'm completely

00:29:01.680 open to the

00:29:02.520 possibility that

00:29:03.260 there can never

00:29:03.860 be a Middle East 0.99

00:29:04.760 peace.

00:29:06.940 You know,

00:29:07.300 if you're saying

00:29:08.160 you believe

00:29:08.940 that based on

00:29:10.320 all the history

00:29:11.000 you've seen,

00:29:11.620 it can just

00:29:12.160 never happen,

00:29:13.340 you might not

00:29:14.100 be wrong.

00:29:15.600 You might not

00:29:16.120 be wrong.

00:29:17.080 In fact,

00:29:17.720 the odds probably

00:29:18.420 are in your

00:29:19.140 favor.

00:29:20.140 But what's

00:29:21.080 different is

00:29:22.300 we've never

00:29:22.760 had this set

00:29:23.640 of variables

00:29:24.300 all in place.

00:29:26.120 We've never

00:29:26.760 been this close.

00:29:28.440 And we've never

00:29:29.020 had this strong

00:29:29.880 a team,

00:29:31.000 team meaning

00:29:31.660 all the different

00:29:32.320 leaders.

00:29:33.100 They're all

00:29:33.460 strong leaders.

00:29:35.720 It's just

00:29:36.320 never been this

00:29:36.920 close with a

00:29:38.080 team this strong

00:29:38.860 who could push

00:29:39.560 it over the

00:29:40.060 line if they

00:29:40.640 wanted to.

00:29:41.480 I think it

00:29:42.040 comes down to

00:29:42.580 whether they

00:29:42.940 want to.

00:29:44.680 Honestly.

00:29:45.780 I think if

00:29:46.720 everybody in

00:29:47.780 this story

00:29:48.260 wants peace,

00:29:49.680 they're going

00:29:50.680 to get it.

00:29:51.720 All right.

00:29:52.300 That's all for

00:29:52.960 now.

00:29:53.260 I will talk

00:29:53.680 to you later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 27, 2020

Episode 800 Scott Adams： The Bolton ＂Bombshell＂ and Coronavirus

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