Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 809 Scott Adams： Iowa Caucus, ＂Sloppiest Train Wreck in History,＂ Schiff Sells Alaska to Russia

00:00:00.000 Yeah, it's true. Some days are better than other days. Today, it's really looking good.

00:00:15.880 I'd like to start by giving you the Iowa election results.

00:00:22.280 I believe they're in here, somewhere in here. I've got all the Iowa caucus results.

00:00:32.760 No, I don't have them yet. But nobody else has them either, so I guess I'm no worse than anybody else, am I?

00:00:42.500 Oh, I know why you're here. You're here for endless laughs about the hilarious incompetence of the Democrats in Iowa.

00:00:53.560 And we're going to bring that. Don't worry. If you came here to mock the Democrats in Iowa, you came to the right place.

00:01:01.660 We're going to do that. But first, you might want to enjoy this simultaneous sip,

00:01:06.800 and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:14.180 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like my coffee.

00:01:19.200 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the thing that makes everything better, the dopamine hit of the day.

00:01:25.900 The simultaneous sip. Go.

00:01:32.360 Mmm. Tastes like caucus.

00:01:36.800 All right. Where to begin? Where to begin?

00:01:40.640 So, you all know that the Iowa results, the Iowa caucuses, didn't go as well as anybody hoped.

00:01:52.940 I don't know how long it's going to take before I stop laughing about this whole situation.

00:01:57.600 But it's not going to happen soon.

00:01:59.700 Let's just run through the jokes.

00:02:02.020 The hardest thing I had, the hardest part of my morning today, was organizing all the jokes.

00:02:09.560 Because I couldn't stop thinking of funny things about Iowa.

00:02:12.920 And I started writing them down and tweeting about them.

00:02:15.420 And I thought, my God, I've got too many jokes about Iowa.

00:02:18.360 I'm going to have to organize these by alphabetical or something.

00:02:22.180 But let's just run through a few.

00:02:24.800 First of all, how long does it take to rig a vote against Bernie?

00:02:32.360 I mean, really?

00:02:34.140 It shouldn't take that long.

00:02:36.540 Don't they just subtract a little from Bernie, add it to whoever they want?

00:02:39.760 Look, so, I'm not going to say, you know, I'm not going to allege that this is all a big way to rig the vote against Bernie.

00:02:51.660 I will simply note that if you were going to bet, let's say, predict it had a betting market.

00:02:58.720 And let's say that a week ago, the bet had been this.

00:03:03.240 The bet is that if there's a major technical screw-up in the Iowa caucuses, so imagine this is a week ago and you had this option.

00:03:12.640 And you knew there was going to be a big screw-up, or if there were a big screw-up.

00:03:17.940 Would it work against Bernie Sanders' interest or for his interest?

00:03:24.020 Yeah, you know where I'm going here.

00:03:25.640 However, it could be just a technical mistake, just like they say.

00:03:30.380 Could be just the system didn't work as well as they'd hoped, and it'll take a while to sort it out.

00:03:35.340 Could be.

00:03:36.600 But why are all the mistakes against Bernie Sanders in one way or another?

00:03:44.200 Is that a coincidence?

00:03:45.940 It could be.

00:03:47.000 It could be a coincidence, but it's a funny one.

00:03:51.060 All right.

00:03:52.260 So I've got a question for you.

00:03:53.540 How are the Iowa caucus results like the Bloomberg box?

00:04:00.000 I'll let you think about it.

00:04:01.380 How are the Iowa caucus results like the Bloomberg box?

00:04:06.680 The answer?

00:04:07.860 We're sure they both exist, but we can't see them.

00:04:11.880 All right.

00:04:12.660 Moving on.

00:04:13.260 If Democrats win the presidency and overhaul the health care system in the United States,

00:04:22.640 will that involve any apps?

00:04:26.620 Because I'm a little worried now about my health care system being run by the people who couldn't make an app that counts.

00:04:35.640 Now, I'm no expert app maker.

00:04:40.320 Actually, I've been involved in making a bunch of apps.

00:04:42.480 But I feel as though counting is one of the easier things an app can do.

00:04:50.160 Now, I know it has to count and put them in different buckets.

00:04:52.860 But it's still basically counting.

00:04:57.720 Now, there's some reporting, and I don't think you should assume that anything is accurate in the first 24 hours.

00:05:03.420 But there's some reporting that maybe the problem with the app was the volume.

00:05:08.360 That too many people used it at once.

00:05:10.980 To which I say, nobody saw that coming?

00:05:14.060 When they were making that app, was there anybody in the meeting who said,

00:05:19.600 we've tested our app with two or three users at the same time.

00:05:25.020 But I think during the Iowa caucuses, we might have more traffic than that.

00:05:29.860 Do you think we should make sure that we're architected so we can handle lots of simultaneous traffic?

00:05:37.680 I don't know.

00:05:38.440 It seems like a question I would have asked if I'd been in the meeting.

00:05:41.480 So I'm not sure it was really the volume that made the difference.

00:05:46.380 But that's some of the unreliable early reporting.

00:05:52.840 Did it feel to you like the general election was over last night?

00:05:57.980 Did you have that feeling?

00:05:59.920 I felt as though the general election, the election in which Trump will run against the eventual nominee,

00:06:06.760 I feel like it was decided last night.

00:06:09.140 Now, of course, it's too early, you know, and so many things could change before election day.

00:06:15.900 But if you were to have the election today,

00:06:18.680 pick your Democrat.

00:06:22.140 Pick your favorite, strongest Democrat and hold the election today.

00:06:27.080 Trump is the Republican and you take your strongest Democrat,

00:06:31.620 but you have to hold the election today.

00:06:33.160 Well, what's the result?

00:06:36.540 Well, if it's today, I think there are a lot of people, the Democrats,

00:06:41.420 who I have this theory about some percentage of the Democrats.

00:06:48.080 And, you know, this is not everybody.

00:06:50.300 So it's a it's a sort of a gross generality.

00:06:53.640 It doesn't doesn't mean every individual.

00:06:55.220 But I feel as though the Democrats who support Bernie and Elizabeth Warren in particular,

00:07:03.340 that they live in two worlds simultaneously.

00:07:06.760 There's one world in which Bernie, his policies make sense and they all add up.

00:07:12.700 But there's another world that I think they live in simultaneously,

00:07:16.120 in which they know it wouldn't work.

00:07:18.340 Now, I might be wrong, because, again, you don't know what's in people's minds.

00:07:24.780 But it looks like they simultaneously prefer Bernie

00:07:28.480 and also know that his policies couldn't possibly work.

00:07:32.040 It feels like it, because I don't know how they could not be aware of that.

00:07:36.320 You know, it seems, you know, there are enough Democrats who are saying it

00:07:39.500 that it seems like everybody would be aware of it.

00:07:42.480 So this is one of those situations where it collapses one of the two movies.

00:07:48.340 Because the whole argument about Bernie, stay with me here,

00:07:54.020 the argument for Bernie, the best argument you could make,

00:07:58.340 is that he is capable beyond your imagination.

00:08:03.080 You get that, right?

00:08:04.500 Because if Bernie had ordinary capability,

00:08:09.060 he wouldn't be able to do something as extraordinary as what he is proposing,

00:08:13.600 which is transforming the economy, you know, canceling student debt,

00:08:17.260 raising taxes on the rich, you know, free college,

00:08:21.660 and all the other stuff, free health care.

00:08:29.020 The only way to do that stuff is if you were really, really capable

00:08:33.680 at making a system work, a complicated system.

00:08:37.720 Now, after last night, who among you believes that the Democrats, any of them,

00:08:45.740 have the capability to make a complicated system run like a clock?

00:08:52.120 Nobody.

00:08:53.400 And it's not even fair.

00:08:55.280 So I'm not saying that there's anything about this Iowa situation that should be generalized.

00:09:00.700 I'm just saying it will be.

00:09:03.520 So there's no reason to think this one-off mistake says anything about Democrats

00:09:08.040 or says anything about the candidates or anything about anything.

00:09:11.580 It's probably just a one-off.

00:09:13.280 But it doesn't feel that way because of the timing, the attention.

00:09:19.500 Now, here are a couple of rules that really stick out.

00:09:22.540 First impressions are really sticky.

00:09:26.760 You know that, right?

00:09:27.720 You know it from human interactions when you have a first impression of a person,

00:09:32.320 first impression of a candidate, a first impression of anything.

00:09:36.440 It's really sticky.

00:09:37.480 It's hard to change that.

00:09:39.100 Iowa is our first impression of the professional DNC machine and Democrats as a brand.

00:09:48.000 Our first impression was complete failure.

00:09:52.540 First impressions are really, really sticky.

00:09:56.800 This thing is going to dog them. 1.00

00:09:58.320 If this had been, let's say, the fourth state, it kind of wouldn't matter, would it?

00:10:07.360 It's only because it's first that it has this big hold on our imaginations.

00:10:13.800 The other thing that captures our imagination is exceptions.

00:10:18.080 You don't remember or note things that are just the way they're supposed to be because your brain can't process everything that happens.

00:10:27.060 It's only looking for exceptions.

00:10:29.600 So Iowa is two things that are the worst things for the Democrats.

00:10:34.860 It's first, so that first impression for the season is sticky, but it's also a weird exception.

00:10:41.160 And it really captures your imagination, and we're really going to look at it as an exception.

00:10:46.180 It's like, what went wrong?

00:10:47.100 Why are they doing this?

00:10:48.240 Lots of questions.

00:10:49.540 So all of our focus is, at least until there's another primary, are just drilled down onto the exception and the fact it was first.

00:10:59.000 The election, the general election, might be over, because this is such a damning thing.

00:11:06.100 Let me ask you this.

00:11:10.700 Let's say a genie appears and finds a typical Democrat voter.

00:11:15.440 Maybe it's a Bernie voter.

00:11:16.620 Maybe it's an Elizabeth Warren voter.

00:11:18.560 But it's just a voter for the most progressive policies.

00:11:22.660 And the genie says this, there's going to be a system in this country.

00:11:27.560 I won't tell you which one.

00:11:29.260 The only thing you get to decide is who gets to run the system.

00:11:34.360 Do you want a Democrat to be in charge of running it? 0.83

00:11:38.800 Say, let's say, with the efficiency that Democrats run major cities in this country,

00:11:43.540 or the efficiency that they ran the Iowa caucus.

00:11:47.900 You can have a Democrat, or you can have a Republican.

00:11:54.140 Even if you're a Democrat, who do you want running the system?

00:11:59.340 Remember, you don't even know what the system is, so you don't know if it's one you like or one you don't like.

00:12:04.040 But you do know you want it to run well, whatever the system is.

00:12:08.300 As a Democrat, who do you pick?

00:12:11.280 If nobody's watching, nobody's watching, so you can just be honest.

00:12:17.080 Who do you pick to run your complicated system?

00:12:21.820 Probably a business person.

00:12:23.880 Probably somebody with a lot of experience.

00:12:27.660 I feel like Republicans, because they just sort of chug along doing things correctly,

00:12:34.100 they don't quite get as much...

00:12:35.600 I don't think Republicans get as much credit as they earn by simply making things run smoothly.

00:12:42.400 The GOP has a pretty well-oiled machine, and I think people are noticing.

00:12:50.040 Now, here's another irony, and the simulation is just serving up all kinds of delicious things.

00:12:57.820 Who was the one Democrat who was running for president who could have made an app that worked?

00:13:04.440 It's the only one who didn't go.

00:13:08.620 Mike Bloomberg.

00:13:12.520 Well, okay, somebody said Yang.

00:13:14.960 Yang could have made an app that worked.

00:13:16.720 Yes, that's correct.

00:13:18.620 But Bloomberg certainly could have gotten an app working,

00:13:23.780 because he has a trillion-dollar company that makes apps and software

00:13:29.080 and does lots of stuff for its own purposes.

00:13:32.140 I think Bloomberg could have made an app that worked,

00:13:34.160 but I don't think anybody asked him, and Yang could have, too.

00:13:37.320 Yang had one of the best responses,

00:13:40.880 basically suggesting that he's the kind of president

00:13:45.680 that would make this sort of thing go away,

00:13:48.300 because he knows technology.

00:13:50.000 So that was good.

00:13:50.600 All right, contrast is another persuasion concept that comes into play.

00:14:03.040 And imagine, if you will, that you're looking at the Iowa,

00:14:08.780 let's say the digital part of the Iowa caucus.

00:14:13.280 Who do you compare that to just automatically in your head?

00:14:16.540 What's the natural comparison?

00:14:18.600 Because we always compare things.

00:14:20.160 You can't turn that off.

00:14:22.100 We are a comparing, pattern-looking kind of species.

00:14:26.820 So in my mind, I somewhat irrationally compare the Iowa digital app people

00:14:33.780 to the Republican effort that I know that does digital stuff,

00:14:38.100 and I think of Brad Parscale's group.

00:14:40.140 Now, Brad Parscale is head of the campaign, as I understand it,

00:14:44.080 but their digital part of their campaign is considered the most world-class amazing thing

00:14:51.240 that's happened in the history of this stuff.

00:14:54.740 So unfortunately, not only did Iowa fail in their technology,

00:15:00.020 but your brain automatically compares it to the Darth Vader of digital work.

00:15:07.260 You know, I mean that in a good way, not in the bad, the good Darth Vader reference.

00:15:12.720 Meaning that Parscale, he's like a monster of competence and success in that field.

00:15:21.220 And unfortunately, he's going to be the natural comparison to this little failure.

00:15:27.140 So I loved what the Trump campaign said about this.

00:15:34.500 Now, the quote I'm going to give you was not attributed to anybody specifically.

00:15:39.140 I pulled this off of Fox News' website.

00:15:42.000 But the quote from the Trump campaign was, quote,

00:15:46.600 Democrats are stewing in a caucus mess of their own creation

00:15:51.140 with the sloppiest train wreck in history.

00:15:55.180 Oh my God.

00:15:56.860 Who wrote that sentence?

00:15:59.060 I'm going to read that sentence at least two more times because it's delicious.

00:16:04.180 Yeah, somebody in the comments, you know exactly where I'm going.

00:16:08.200 This is so visual.

00:16:09.500 Just, it's not just visual, but feel the words.

00:16:18.020 Feel the sound of the words and how perfect the sentence is.

00:16:23.840 Now, I assume this was a written statement, it looks like.

00:16:28.220 So I'll read it again.

00:16:29.900 Democrats are stewing in a caucus mess of their own creation

00:16:33.940 with the sloppiest train wreck in history.

00:16:37.520 Do you know what's right with that sentence?

00:16:40.500 Everything.

00:16:42.280 Everything.

00:16:43.080 Whoever wrote this sentence knows how to write a sentence.

00:16:48.140 This is like, this is a 10 out of 10 for a sentence.

00:16:53.620 See, what's right about it is it's very visual.

00:16:55.960 So you can see the train wreck.

00:16:57.380 But when they add sloppy, a sloppy train wreck, you almost can hear it, can you not?

00:17:05.420 If you imagine a train wreck, the first thing you imagine metal and steel, crash, crash, crash.

00:17:11.580 You know, that's what a train wreck would sound like.

00:17:14.360 But when they add sloppy, it almost sounds like dropping a bunch of watermelons on a hard floor.

00:17:21.720 You know, just like falling apart, sloppy.

00:17:28.140 So there's something about the word sloppy that modifies train wreck in a way that's just genius, frankly.

00:17:35.080 And then it also says Democrats are stewing in a caucus mess.

00:17:39.740 You can actually see the stew in that sentence.

00:17:43.260 You can actually see it.

00:17:44.680 It's like this big pot of luck.

00:17:46.560 And they're in there and they're just, they're just soaking in the bile, the stew.

00:17:52.900 So, A plus for that sentence.

00:17:55.240 All right.

00:17:57.520 Dems want to run, Democrats want to run health care.

00:18:01.020 I wasn't the first one to say it, but I did.

00:18:03.080 I raced to be the first.

00:18:05.220 And I lost.

00:18:06.800 I thought to myself, oh, I'm going to be the first one to say that if they can't run this Iowa caucus,

00:18:12.880 how are they going to run health care for the nation?

00:18:14.940 And I typed out my little tweet and I thought, I'm first, I'm first.

00:18:19.780 And then I go on to, I go on to Twitter and there's Ted Cruz beat me to it by, I don't know, hours or something.

00:18:27.200 So that wasn't my best joke.

00:18:29.360 Ted Cruz beat me to it.

00:18:31.160 But good work, Ted Cruz.

00:18:35.000 So here's what's fascinating about it.

00:18:39.080 There's a lot that's interesting about this Iowa situation.

00:18:41.660 We could talk about it forever.

00:18:42.920 There's just so many elements to it.

00:18:44.940 But here's my take on it.

00:18:47.100 Bernie was supposed to win.

00:18:49.140 It should have been a big launch point, a big moment for Bernie.

00:18:53.140 And then Bernie would go to New Hampshire and presumably because it's close to Vermont, he would win again.

00:19:01.080 Then he would have Bernie with two solid wins going into the third one.

00:19:05.420 That would probably help Bernie a lot in the third election.

00:19:09.760 Now, so it should have been Bernie all the way for the first three.

00:19:15.120 Instead, by coincidence, an app that was built by, let's see, who built the app that failed?

00:19:25.320 Just guessing.

00:19:27.100 Oh, yes.

00:19:28.560 A bunch of Hillary Clinton huge supporters.

00:19:32.380 Huh.

00:19:32.560 So Hillary Clinton's supporters built an app that screwed Bernie. 0.84

00:19:37.960 What are the odds of that?

00:19:40.340 So Bernie not only doesn't get the first win, but here's the diabolical part.

00:19:48.000 Should he go ahead and win in New Hampshire, what are people going to say?

00:19:52.020 Well, he was supposed to win there.

00:19:53.380 So if he doesn't get the first win, the second win isn't going to look important because it was the thing, getting two in a row in our minds feels like, whoa, there's momentum, two in a row, first two.

00:20:08.360 It's the first two and he got them both.

00:20:10.680 That would mean a lot to you.

00:20:12.160 But suppose Iowa is inconclusive and then he goes and he does win the second one, but the second one's going to feel like he was supposed to win anyway.

00:20:21.440 It's his home field.

00:20:23.260 People are just going to discount it.

00:20:25.280 He's going to go into the third state with nothing instead of everything.

00:20:32.340 That is a big change in history and it was done by, who made that app again?

00:20:38.640 I forget.

00:20:39.660 Oh, yeah.

00:20:40.940 Big Hillary Clinton supporters made that app. 0.99

00:20:43.840 Well, we found out who is the smartest candidate who campaigned in Iowa.

00:20:53.800 Who was the smartest person in Iowa?

00:20:57.560 This is an easy question.

00:21:00.260 I think your comments are a little behind, so I'll just give you the answer.

00:21:04.000 Pete Buttigieg.

00:21:05.820 Let me give you this advice.

00:21:07.860 Should you ever find yourself in a situation where there's been some kind of a contest or vote and you're in it and the result is ambiguous and it looks like it might always be ambiguous, what should you do in that situation?

00:21:24.960 Here's my advice.

00:21:27.080 Go full Buttigieg.

00:21:29.580 Buttigieg just showed he's the smartest guy in the race because he did the smartest thing.

00:21:34.560 Oh, Amy Klobuchar.

00:21:35.640 You're right.

00:21:36.140 Amy Klobuchar was also brilliant because she got out there early.

00:21:40.320 So the two smartest people in the race, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

00:21:43.940 Klobuchar for going first and getting the attention because, I mean, it was so smart because the news was all geared up for this coverage and they had nothing to talk about.

00:21:55.480 So Klobuchar says, well, I'll give them something to talk about.

00:21:58.580 So she goes out and gives a talk in front of a crowd and she gets all the attention.

00:22:03.380 But Buttigieg took it one level further.

00:22:08.660 He claimed victory.

00:22:10.520 He claimed victory.

00:22:12.040 Now, is that legitimate?

00:22:15.000 Don't know.

00:22:16.480 We don't know what the results are.

00:22:18.380 Maybe he won big.

00:22:19.980 Maybe he didn't.

00:22:21.260 We don't know.

00:22:22.220 But I will tell you one thing.

00:22:23.940 I wouldn't want a president who wasn't smart enough to claim victory and leave town.

00:22:30.020 Would you?

00:22:30.600 I got to say, and I've said this before, you know, there's a lot you can say to criticize the democratic field.

00:22:42.760 But if you were to look at the larger group of people, not all of them made it to the, you know, made it to the big stage.

00:22:49.520 But if you were to look at the larger group of Democrats who were running for president, it's a really smart group.

00:22:57.940 They actually are.

00:22:58.880 I mean, academically, if we're talking academically, it's a super smart group of people.

00:23:03.940 Buttigieg being probably, you know, near the top of that group.

00:23:07.440 So he claims victory and moves on.

00:23:09.440 He's the smartest guy.

00:23:10.560 I declare him the smartest one.

00:23:12.380 Here's another interesting factoid about this.

00:23:18.940 You know, since the beginning, when we saw Biden leading in the polls, what have I been saying, provocatively?

00:23:27.020 I've been saying, have any of you ever met a Biden supporter?

00:23:31.820 Because I've met, it seems like I've met every other kind of supporter.

00:23:35.180 I see, you know, Yang is way down in the polls, but I meet Yang supporters all the time.

00:23:41.000 Don't you meet Yang supporters all the time?

00:23:43.340 You see them online, you see them in person.

00:23:47.500 Very common.

00:23:49.300 Bernie supporters, all the time.

00:23:51.320 I see Bernie supporters everywhere.

00:23:53.200 They talk to me, they're on TV, you know, Joe Rogan is supporting them.

00:23:57.080 Very common.

00:23:58.920 Have you ever met a Joe Biden supporter?

00:24:01.740 Now, I don't know why, but I haven't.

00:24:06.880 I haven't met one in person.

00:24:09.240 I've not met one single Joe Biden supporter in person.

00:24:16.720 And I wondered, you know, of course, you think in terms of conspiracy theories, because that's the world we live in.

00:24:23.120 And I thought to myself, what are the odds that there never was any polling for Joe Biden, and all the polls are just rigged?

00:24:33.120 Is that possible?

00:24:35.500 I don't think it's possible, because there should be enough polling companies that if any one of them got a different result, it would be obvious that the game was over.

00:24:45.940 So it doesn't seem possible.

00:24:48.680 But am I wrong about that?

00:24:50.980 I'll make this a question.

00:24:52.260 So it's not an allegation, it's a question.

00:24:55.960 It's somewhat coincidental that the very day we were going to find out if the polling about Biden was in the ballpark, because we would have an actual vote for the first time, and it would be harder to fake that.

00:25:11.440 The very time we were going to find this out, the vote gets messed up, and we can't find it out.

00:25:16.500 Now, Will, is it possible that the New Hampshire primary will happen before we know what happened in Iowa?

00:25:23.640 Because it almost feels like if I were a conspiracy theorist, I would say that the polls have all been rigged to keep Biden in the race.

00:25:33.420 But I don't think that's physically, mathematically, practically possible.

00:25:38.280 But if anybody has a theory how that could have happened, let me know.

00:25:42.340 I just don't think it's possible.

00:25:45.580 Jeffrey Toobin, over at CNN, points out that Iowa's a terrible place for Democrats to have their first contest because it's 90% white.

00:25:55.440 It's not a bad point, but it also turns it into a race thing.

00:26:03.000 And I don't think you can ignore that.

00:26:05.340 I mean, it's a reasonable thing to say, especially for the first one.

00:26:10.120 It's reasonable to say that your first one should represent the country and not have crazy rules and stuff.

00:26:15.640 So the point is well taken.

00:26:18.340 But why is it everything turns into race?

00:26:20.460 The Democrats have a terrible problem with their own philosophies because they have to grapple with their own problems of being woke enough.

00:26:32.660 All right.

00:26:32.880 Here's a very interesting comment by Twitter user Banzai Sharma, who points out to me and sent me a video of Joe Biden.

00:26:42.980 He was leaving some retail business in Iowa before the votes.

00:26:49.040 And somebody asked him about his chances.

00:26:51.840 And Joe said that he'd survive, that he would survive Iowa.

00:26:58.800 And I thought to myself, well, there's a winner.

00:27:03.840 That's how winners talk.

00:27:05.820 I'll survive?

00:27:07.960 What kind of a statement is that?

00:27:10.660 Now, as Banzai Sharma points out,

00:27:13.240 I have taught you before that people reveal what they're really thinking in their choice of words.

00:27:18.360 In other words, if you look at the full sentence, it could be that the sentence says one thing.

00:27:24.280 But when you look at the choice of words, they're actually telling you something else.

00:27:28.280 In this case, it's an unusual choice of words to say survival.

00:27:34.220 Survive isn't a winning word.

00:27:36.260 It's not what candidates usually say.

00:27:38.000 They say, we're going to do great.

00:27:39.700 We'll get our share of votes.

00:27:41.180 It's, you know, we're going to win it in the next one.

00:27:43.960 You know, we're just getting stronger.

00:27:45.380 That's how normal candidates talk.

00:27:48.140 But Joe Biden actually used the word survive.

00:27:51.720 And Banzai Sharma points out correctly, I think, that that's a strong indicator that what he's thinking about is his own mortality.

00:28:00.440 And remember, we know that because he brought it up.

00:28:04.140 We don't have to read his mind.

00:28:06.000 When he talked about who he would have for a vice president, he said somebody young because he's an older guy.

00:28:12.680 I don't know how to interpret older guy other than he might not be around that long.

00:28:21.560 Right?

00:28:21.680 So I think Joe Biden is literally thinking about surviving more than he's thinking about winning.

00:28:30.220 So that's a bad look.

00:28:32.420 Chris Matthews over on MSNBC basically said he thinks that if Bernie is the nominee, that the Democrats have no chance at all.

00:28:45.000 And I don't know.

00:28:48.280 If you see people like Chris Matthews, who is no Republican, if you see him saying that Bernie is just like the, I think he likened him to an old man in the park with communist or socialist literature.

00:29:06.740 So even the Democrats are pretty sad now.

00:29:09.820 Did you catch the news about Adam Schiff when he was giving his closing argument there in the impeachment, which seems, it feels like it's already over, but it's not.

00:29:20.520 And he was using a hypothetical saying that if Trump is allowed to continue in office and he gets emboldened by not being impeached and all of his quid pro quos, that he, quote,

00:29:37.400 could offer Alaska to the Russians in exchange for sport in the next election, or to decide to move to Mar-a-Lago permanently and leave Jared Kushner to run the country, delegating to him the decision whether they go to war.

00:29:54.700 What?

00:29:55.300 Now, his point, of course, is that presidents need to have limits, and that if the president can do anything that's not illegal, and apparently it wouldn't be illegal, according to Schiff, to offer Alaska to the Russians in exchange for sport in the next election.

00:30:15.100 But I have to ask myself, is that something that a president can do?

00:30:20.520 Can presidents sell off states? 0.99

00:30:24.980 I'm not an expert in this, but I don't think a president can sell off a state, even if they want to, even if they get a good price.

00:30:35.080 I'm almost positive you'd have to get the Congress involved.

00:30:38.580 Am I wrong about that?

00:30:39.700 And wouldn't the public have something to say about, or maybe the Alaskans themselves might have something to say about selling their state to Russia?

00:30:50.960 Now, of course, Schiff didn't mean it literally, but if he didn't mean it literally, why is he saying it?

00:30:57.720 Because he's doing what should be a credible argument in front of the public in the most solemn situation you could ever have.

00:31:05.820 If it's, if it's solemn and important and it's in front of the Senate, in front of the country, is he supposed to just make up crazy stuff?

00:31:14.740 Right?

00:31:15.860 I don't think he's supposed to make up crazy stuff.

00:31:19.840 Anyway, here's what I think will happen.

00:31:24.900 Because you know that facts and truth don't matter,

00:31:27.720 I think you're going to see that the Adam Schiff, his statement about the president hypothetically doing that,

00:31:35.960 is going to quickly morph into Adam Schiff saying we should sell Alaska to Russia.

00:31:43.140 Do you see that happening?

00:31:45.280 Even though he was talking about a potential future Trump doing it,

00:31:49.460 it feels like the topic is getting paired with Schiff, not Trump,

00:31:53.460 because Trump didn't have anything to do with it.

00:31:55.280 It's not something he talked about, thought about, joked about, tweeted about.

00:31:59.620 He has nothing to do with it.

00:32:01.540 But you see Adam Schiff talking about it,

00:32:04.320 and you see the topic,

00:32:06.440 and you say to yourself,

00:32:07.980 does Adam Schiff want to sell Alaska to the Russians?

00:32:11.180 Does he think that's possible?

00:32:12.680 Of course not.

00:32:14.320 But he's pairing himself with that idea, which is crazy.

00:32:17.660 Here's a little update.

00:32:18.980 I was reading an article in newyorker.com about China disallowing some translated books into the country.

00:32:29.760 So first the books get translated, and then they're published.

00:32:34.020 And I'm reading this article, and it turns out to be about me.

00:32:37.720 I hate it when that happens.

00:32:39.740 Sometimes I just want to read the news about other people,

00:32:42.300 and I read the news like, 0.98

00:32:43.360 Oh, crap, this one's about me. 0.97

00:32:45.880 And the news was this. 0.97

00:32:48.160 My book, Win Bigly,

00:32:50.580 is being banned in China.

00:32:54.160 That's right.

00:32:55.580 China finally figured out who I am.

00:32:58.700 I don't know how long ago they figured that out,

00:33:01.180 but it's probably no coincidence

00:33:05.500 that mine was on the list of books that got banned.

00:33:09.300 Now, when I say banned,

00:33:10.280 I don't mean that they say that explicitly.

00:33:12.960 Apparently, the way they do it is,

00:33:14.800 my book has already been translated,

00:33:17.340 and it's ready to go.

00:33:18.820 And they just put a hold on it forever.

00:33:20.780 So that's how they ban it.

00:33:21.860 They just don't execute and put it into the market.

00:33:26.280 So that's the report from the translators,

00:33:28.360 and mine is in that category.

00:33:30.340 And the reporting said

00:33:32.200 they don't say why they do it,

00:33:35.360 but it's obvious it's the trade war.

00:33:37.400 To which I say,

00:33:39.740 no, that's not that obvious.

00:33:42.260 I wouldn't say it's just the trade war.

00:33:45.680 I would say it's because I've

00:33:47.560 hashtagged fentanyl China into existence.

00:33:52.720 I would say it's because

00:33:54.220 I have argued in favor of decoupling.

00:33:58.060 I would say that

00:33:59.260 I've called it a dictatorship.

00:34:01.180 I talk about the imprisonment of the Uyghurs 1.00

00:34:03.720 on a fairly regular basis.

00:34:05.800 I talk about Hong Kong.

00:34:08.260 And I certainly

00:34:09.160 talk about all of their badness in general.

00:34:15.300 And of course, now the

00:34:16.180 virus, the coronavirus.

00:34:21.120 So,

00:34:21.760 I don't know how many reasons

00:34:23.900 China has to ban my book,

00:34:25.420 but I've given them quite a few.

00:34:27.480 And now,

00:34:28.500 now that I'm on their radar,

00:34:31.460 hi China, 1.00

00:34:32.140 I am going to fuck you up. 1.00

00:34:40.600 You think I'm done, 1.00

00:34:42.660 China? 0.73

00:34:43.400 I'm not done.

00:34:44.980 I'm just starting.

00:34:46.780 Just getting started. 1.00

00:34:48.920 And you fuckers 1.00

00:34:49.840 are going to find out later. 1.00

00:34:52.580 All right.

00:34:53.180 So,

00:34:53.960 now,

00:34:55.080 me and China.

00:34:55.780 it was personal

00:34:57.620 when they killed

00:34:58.260 my stepson

00:34:58.960 with fentanyl.

00:35:01.820 But it's a little bit

00:35:03.000 more personal now.

00:35:05.220 So,

00:35:05.800 if you think

00:35:06.420 I was going to go hard

00:35:07.500 at them before,

00:35:09.620 well,

00:35:10.720 you haven't seen anything.

00:35:14.240 Gordon Chang,

00:35:15.240 who's an expert

00:35:15.780 on China

00:35:16.880 and

00:35:17.280 things over there,

00:35:19.620 is speculating.

00:35:21.000 And I think it's speculation.

00:35:22.360 He says it with

00:35:23.060 some confidence,

00:35:23.960 but it sounds like speculation,

00:35:25.680 that China might be

00:35:26.660 overwhelmed

00:35:27.260 with the volume

00:35:28.360 of coronavirus

00:35:29.320 victims

00:35:30.360 and dead bodies

00:35:31.260 that the count

00:35:33.080 is low

00:35:33.560 because they just

00:35:34.180 can't count them.

00:35:35.880 Because people

00:35:36.660 are dying at home

00:35:37.640 because there's

00:35:39.000 no hospital

00:35:39.600 to go to.

00:35:40.860 So,

00:35:41.280 if somebody dies

00:35:41.860 at home

00:35:42.400 because they couldn't

00:35:43.540 go to the hospital,

00:35:44.220 how do they get counted?

00:35:47.060 You know,

00:35:47.780 if the system

00:35:48.560 is overloaded,

00:35:49.760 there may be

00:35:50.680 no way to know.

00:35:51.320 So,

00:35:52.560 we're still waiting

00:35:53.740 for that.

00:35:55.520 Here's a question

00:35:56.280 I have.

00:35:57.500 Didn't China 0.98

00:35:58.460 complain that

00:35:59.260 the United States

00:36:00.020 wasn't helping?

00:36:01.160 I think we've

00:36:01.940 offered help,

00:36:02.600 have we not?

00:36:04.540 But,

00:36:05.340 I,

00:36:08.260 you know,

00:36:08.600 as long as

00:36:09.060 they're sending

00:36:09.500 fentanyl

00:36:10.120 to this country,

00:36:11.640 I have mixed

00:36:12.920 feelings about

00:36:13.580 helping them

00:36:14.180 with this

00:36:14.660 coronavirus.

00:36:17.640 I think

00:36:18.280 for humanitarian

00:36:18.940 reasons,

00:36:19.640 if we had a way

00:36:20.320 to do it,

00:36:20.780 we'd have to

00:36:21.240 do it.

00:36:22.480 I'd be okay

00:36:23.260 with that.

00:36:24.080 But,

00:36:24.540 I hate

00:36:25.560 helping somebody

00:36:27.400 who's actively 0.98

00:36:28.340 trying to kill you. 0.97

00:36:30.760 That's, 1.00

00:36:31.280 it's a hard one,

00:36:32.320 but your morality

00:36:33.480 might require that.

00:36:35.620 Alright,

00:36:36.160 what else

00:36:36.440 we got going on?

00:36:39.780 I'm going to make

00:36:40.520 sure I've hit

00:36:41.060 all of my

00:36:41.580 exciting topics.

00:36:45.280 I think I have.

00:36:46.360 Getting there.

00:36:47.080 Nicole Wallace

00:36:50.340 over on MSNBC

00:36:51.500 once again

00:36:52.460 spread the

00:36:54.020 fine people

00:36:54.840 hoax

00:36:55.260 on TV.

00:36:57.100 Amazing.

00:36:59.080 What do you

00:36:59.640 make of somebody

00:37:00.400 like Nicole Wallace 0.82

00:37:01.460 still saying

00:37:02.680 that the

00:37:03.000 president called

00:37:03.900 the neo-Nazis

00:37:05.660 in Charlottesville

00:37:06.300 fine people?

00:37:07.200 It's the most

00:37:08.300 widely debunked

00:37:09.660 hoax of all

00:37:10.640 time.

00:37:11.580 You could probably

00:37:12.240 find more links

00:37:13.120 debunking that

00:37:13.920 hoax,

00:37:14.300 and easily

00:37:15.660 debunked.

00:37:16.440 Just show the

00:37:17.000 video.

00:37:18.400 Show the

00:37:18.800 transcript.

00:37:19.720 It's right there.

00:37:20.580 You don't have to

00:37:21.020 be a researcher

00:37:22.360 to find it.

00:37:24.040 And she still 0.80

00:37:24.900 says it like

00:37:25.520 it's true.

00:37:26.200 And I actually

00:37:26.880 can't tell

00:37:27.640 if she thinks

00:37:28.560 it's true.

00:37:30.220 This was a

00:37:30.980 tough one.

00:37:31.860 My guess is

00:37:32.660 that she

00:37:33.160 believes it

00:37:33.680 because it

00:37:34.160 would be way

00:37:34.720 too

00:37:35.200 professionally

00:37:36.540 embarrassing

00:37:37.160 to say

00:37:38.300 something so

00:37:38.920 obviously false

00:37:39.960 if you knew

00:37:40.480 it was false.

00:37:41.660 So I have to

00:37:42.460 think she

00:37:43.080 actually doesn't

00:37:43.740 know, which

00:37:44.980 tells you

00:37:45.400 what kind

00:37:45.700 of a bubble

00:37:46.120 she's in.

00:37:48.220 All right,

00:37:48.760 other big news,

00:37:49.840 and this is

00:37:50.480 not happy

00:37:51.020 news, most

00:37:52.020 of you have

00:37:52.360 heard by now

00:37:52.840 that Rush

00:37:53.280 Limbaugh has

00:37:53.980 announced that

00:37:55.360 he has lung

00:37:57.480 cancer, and

00:37:58.360 apparently not

00:38:00.040 early stage,

00:38:02.140 so it sounds

00:38:02.500 like it's pretty

00:38:02.940 bad.

00:38:04.100 And he's

00:38:05.560 going to try

00:38:06.140 to work as

00:38:06.960 he can while

00:38:07.660 treating it,

00:38:08.620 et cetera, so

00:38:09.040 he'll miss

00:38:09.380 some work.

00:38:09.880 And it

00:38:12.280 was very

00:38:12.700 interesting to

00:38:13.520 hear people

00:38:14.440 talk about

00:38:15.080 him, a

00:38:16.260 number of

00:38:16.640 people who

00:38:17.380 are weighing

00:38:18.380 in to say

00:38:19.040 nice things

00:38:19.540 about him.

00:38:20.460 And one of

00:38:20.980 the words that

00:38:21.560 I keep

00:38:22.360 hearing is

00:38:22.900 generous,

00:38:24.820 how generous

00:38:25.540 he was.

00:38:26.340 People talk

00:38:26.920 about how

00:38:27.240 talented he

00:38:27.840 is, et cetera,

00:38:28.500 he's wildly

00:38:29.360 talented.

00:38:30.580 But generous

00:38:31.800 is an

00:38:32.320 interesting word.

00:38:33.080 It's one of

00:38:33.340 the words

00:38:33.600 that if

00:38:35.000 you're that

00:38:36.700 age, and

00:38:38.660 people are

00:38:39.380 independently

00:38:40.560 describing you,

00:38:42.380 and just on

00:38:43.740 their own, the

00:38:44.500 first word they

00:38:45.140 think about you

00:38:46.000 is generous,

00:38:48.300 boy, you've

00:38:49.000 lived a good

00:38:49.460 life.

00:38:51.160 I mean, you've

00:38:51.560 done something

00:38:52.220 right if the

00:38:53.260 first word that

00:38:54.020 people think

00:38:54.620 about you after

00:38:55.820 69 years of

00:38:57.100 life on this

00:38:57.720 earth is

00:38:58.740 generous.

00:38:59.900 That's pretty

00:39:00.540 good.

00:39:01.600 And what's

00:39:01.960 interesting is I

00:39:02.840 was actually going

00:39:03.380 to use the same

00:39:03.900 word about him.

00:39:05.000 Because he's

00:39:05.640 been very

00:39:06.140 generous to

00:39:06.820 me lately,

00:39:08.800 said very

00:39:10.040 nice things

00:39:10.500 about my

00:39:10.940 work, and

00:39:11.560 read my

00:39:12.100 tweets in

00:39:12.960 the last

00:39:13.280 couple of

00:39:13.640 weeks online.

00:39:14.920 And amazingly,

00:39:15.760 I was actually

00:39:16.240 going to,

00:39:16.720 independently, I

00:39:17.400 was going to

00:39:17.660 use the same

00:39:18.200 word and

00:39:19.300 call him

00:39:19.720 generous, because

00:39:20.400 he was

00:39:20.700 generous to

00:39:21.200 me.

00:39:21.440 He didn't

00:39:21.660 ask anything

00:39:22.200 in return,

00:39:23.420 didn't ask

00:39:23.860 me for a

00:39:24.260 favor, but

00:39:26.180 he just said

00:39:27.240 nice things

00:39:27.740 about my

00:39:28.140 work and

00:39:29.000 gave me

00:39:30.280 more attention.

00:39:31.520 And it was

00:39:32.340 exactly the

00:39:32.980 word I had

00:39:33.460 for it, which

00:39:33.920 was, oh,

00:39:34.760 that was

00:39:35.100 quite generous.

00:39:38.120 Now, he

00:39:38.700 has lung

00:39:39.160 cancer, which

00:39:39.880 normally you

00:39:40.740 would think

00:39:41.180 would be the

00:39:42.260 worst possible

00:39:42.940 situation.

00:39:43.900 The rates of

00:39:44.600 lung cancer

00:39:45.200 historically are

00:39:46.520 very low, but

00:39:48.200 let me give you

00:39:48.680 this little bit

00:39:49.320 of hope.

00:39:51.320 There's some

00:39:52.160 new stuff for

00:39:54.340 treating cancers,

00:39:55.700 and lung

00:39:56.000 cancers in

00:39:56.540 particular. 0.65

00:39:56.940 I actually

00:39:57.820 know somebody

00:39:58.500 who had

00:39:59.640 lung cancer

00:40:00.280 and recovered.

00:40:02.480 Now, it's

00:40:03.720 possible people

00:40:04.540 do have

00:40:05.120 lung cancer

00:40:05.620 and recover,

00:40:06.440 but I

00:40:07.260 think way

00:40:08.140 more people

00:40:08.740 are recovering

00:40:09.520 today than

00:40:10.480 have ever

00:40:10.980 recovered, because

00:40:11.720 they've got

00:40:12.020 some new

00:40:12.360 ways to

00:40:12.780 treat stuff.

00:40:13.420 I'm no

00:40:13.680 expert on

00:40:14.200 it.

00:40:14.860 But I

00:40:15.640 don't think

00:40:16.180 you should

00:40:16.540 automatically

00:40:17.160 assume that

00:40:18.140 somebody with

00:40:18.960 his access

00:40:20.360 to all the

00:40:21.800 best,

00:40:22.200 newest,

00:40:22.560 best experts,

00:40:25.280 best everything.

00:40:26.160 I wouldn't

00:40:27.000 assume that

00:40:27.540 this is going

00:40:28.080 to end

00:40:28.500 poorly for

00:40:29.940 him.

00:40:30.760 It might

00:40:31.120 not.

00:40:32.500 So, I

00:40:34.580 think we

00:40:36.500 have a

00:40:37.160 cause for

00:40:39.880 some, let's

00:40:41.120 say, cautious

00:40:41.680 optimism that

00:40:42.720 the best

00:40:43.840 health care

00:40:44.340 in the

00:40:44.800 world,

00:40:45.960 because he's

00:40:46.400 going to have

00:40:46.700 the best

00:40:47.040 health care

00:40:47.500 in the

00:40:47.960 world on

00:40:49.880 a problem

00:40:50.500 that is

00:40:50.920 starting to

00:40:51.500 yield to

00:40:52.540 that

00:40:53.320 technology.

00:40:54.280 So, let's

00:40:55.640 hope he

00:40:56.080 hit the

00:40:57.100 window,

00:40:58.060 because, you

00:40:58.680 know, someday

00:40:59.200 I don't think

00:41:00.620 lung cancer

00:41:01.160 will even

00:41:01.600 be even

00:41:03.700 considered a

00:41:04.400 death threat.

00:41:05.020 And I think

00:41:05.340 that could 0.68

00:41:05.660 happen in

00:41:06.360 my lifetime,

00:41:07.160 if not

00:41:07.440 yours.

00:41:08.480 So, if

00:41:10.520 you're seeing

00:41:10.860 I'm having

00:41:11.220 lots of

00:41:11.560 problems with

00:41:11.960 my so-called

00:41:12.940 allergies, it's

00:41:13.700 because my

00:41:14.780 polyps came

00:41:15.700 back, so I'm

00:41:16.200 going to have

00:41:16.420 to have surgery

00:41:17.040 to get rid

00:41:18.400 of them.

00:41:19.440 No big

00:41:20.060 deal, but it

00:41:21.020 will be

00:41:21.300 inconvenient.

00:41:21.800 All right,

00:41:22.920 anybody can

00:41:25.880 beat it, it's 0.84

00:41:26.480 rush, somebody

00:41:27.220 says.

00:41:27.860 Yeah, maybe

00:41:28.860 so.

00:41:30.140 Okay, I

00:41:35.280 will talk to

00:41:36.280 you all

00:41:36.700 tomorrow.

00:41:37.640 Okay.

00:41:37.760 go.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 04, 2020

Episode 809 Scott Adams： Iowa Caucus, ＂Sloppiest Train Wreck in History,＂ Schiff Sells Alaska to Russia

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