Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 815 Scott Adams： Odds of Coronavirus Being a Bio Weapon, AOC Primaries Schumer？ Dog-Faced Pony Soldiers

00:00:00.000 Oh, what a day, what a day. What an amazing Monday it is.

00:00:08.100 Will we have laughs? Yes, we will.

00:00:11.620 Will we enjoy our time here? Will we learn something?

00:00:15.880 Yes, we will. But most importantly, we will be enjoying the simultaneous sip.

00:00:21.200 It doesn't take much to participate. It does not, really.

00:00:25.680 Merely have a cup or a mug or a glass, a tanker, chalice, or stein,

00:00:29.280 a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:32.340 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:36.100 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day,

00:00:39.440 the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:42.440 Simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:48.640 Ah.

00:00:50.080 Now you might note that I am sipping from

00:00:53.400 the deplorable University cup.

00:00:57.640 And that is your signal that there will be some learning today.

00:01:01.880 Yeah, that's my whiteboard over there.

00:01:04.860 There will be learning.

00:01:10.500 And let's get to it.

00:01:11.740 So, lots of fun stories, lots of important stories.

00:01:18.160 Apparently, a critic of Vladimir Putin has been found with his throat slit

00:01:24.080 in what police are calling a, quote,

00:01:26.600 politically motivated assassination in a French hotel.

00:01:30.480 So, it seems like Putin has a free hand to assassinate anybody he wants, apparently.

00:01:42.720 Now, I can't say that that has no connection to the fact that he gets away with it

00:01:49.940 and apparently Saudi Arabia got away with it, too.

00:01:54.260 So, we're taking out, you know, we took out Soleimani

00:01:58.780 and what some would say was more of an assassination than an act of war.

00:02:05.860 That's debatable.

00:02:07.220 I would call it just a typical killing of terrorists.

00:02:12.360 But I think we live in a world now where people are just going to get rubbed out

00:02:17.220 for being critics.

00:02:21.140 I plan to do some criticizing of China today.

00:02:23.980 I would like to remind all of you, or tell you for the first time,

00:02:28.960 I am not feeling suicidal.

00:02:31.960 So, if I die in mysterious circumstances,

00:02:36.620 you're all my witness that I was not planning to end it myself.

00:02:41.760 In fact, I would resist dying with all of my powers.

00:02:47.800 Elon Musk tweeted out some photos of the new Tesla solar panels

00:02:53.540 for roofs, and I think Elon Musk did it again.

00:03:00.740 And by did it again, I mean I think he's made a product

00:03:03.980 that probably has a lot of potential.

00:03:07.660 He's worth $46 billion already.

00:03:10.260 Maybe this will give him a little boost.

00:03:12.960 But what I liked about it is that when Tesla made a car, 0.97

00:03:17.640 you know, the electric car,

00:03:19.180 they didn't just make it functional and,

00:03:22.500 hey, this saves you some money or it's good for the environment,

00:03:26.820 they made it sexy.

00:03:28.740 So, if you did not look at a Tesla and say,

00:03:31.440 well, that's a pretty good looking car.

00:03:33.180 If you didn't have that visceral feeling about it,

00:03:36.680 it wouldn't be nearly as successful.

00:03:38.560 It would just be a boring, you know, GM Volt,

00:03:41.640 Chevy Volt or whatever it is.

00:03:42.900 But he makes it sexy.

00:03:46.020 So, that's the secret sauce.

00:03:47.920 It's sort of what Apple does.

00:03:49.920 Apple makes a phone.

00:03:51.920 Other people make phones.

00:03:53.460 But you still like your Apple phone because it's sexy.

00:03:57.120 You know, the design is so powerful.

00:03:59.280 And apparently Tesla has done that with their solar panels

00:04:02.660 that look like roofing materials.

00:04:06.300 Because he showed some pictures and my immediate thought was,

00:04:10.560 that looks better than a roof.

00:04:13.960 It wasn't just something that looks like a roof,

00:04:17.580 but also gives you electricity.

00:04:19.460 That would be pretty good.

00:04:21.060 But that would just be a functional product.

00:04:25.480 And I don't know that that would be so successful.

00:04:27.780 I mean, maybe the economics of it would make it successful.

00:04:31.140 But he took it to the next level.

00:04:33.260 And when I looked at those houses,

00:04:34.920 I immediately said,

00:04:36.560 if I build another house,

00:04:37.800 which I'd like to do someday,

00:04:39.280 it's going to have those panels.

00:04:41.920 If only because they look great.

00:04:44.300 So, you know, I don't know the details,

00:04:46.520 but I think he might have done it again

00:04:47.780 based on the magnificence of the design element,

00:04:52.100 the part that's always left out of solar.

00:04:55.400 The Oscars were last night.

00:04:57.980 I don't care.

00:04:59.820 Do you?

00:05:01.100 I didn't watch it.

00:05:02.760 Did not watch a single movie.

00:05:05.200 And beyond that,

00:05:05.980 I don't even know how anybody can watch a movie.

00:05:08.960 How does anybody watch an entire movie?

00:05:12.400 You have one of these, right?

00:05:13.660 You've got a phone.

00:05:15.300 Hasn't your life taken the same arc as mine,

00:05:18.300 that your attention span is getting smaller

00:05:20.500 and smaller and smaller?

00:05:21.940 For me, watching a half-hour sitcom on television

00:05:25.100 is so hard now.

00:05:27.520 It's like,

00:05:28.380 I can't put my whole day into this,

00:05:30.520 even though it's just half an hour.

00:05:32.480 So,

00:05:33.700 I don't think movies even have a purpose anymore.

00:05:37.700 There's just nothing I can get out of a movie

00:05:39.920 that I need or want.

00:05:42.000 Now, there used to be a time when it was a shared experience

00:05:46.920 and there wasn't much else going on.

00:05:49.240 So, I went to the movies like everybody else did.

00:05:51.680 But I would say that I only liked

00:05:53.580 one in ten,

00:05:56.540 maybe one in twenty,

00:05:58.240 were even worth the time I put into them.

00:06:00.280 So, it was a pretty low-yield activity.

00:06:04.880 So, I just don't know why movies are even a thing anymore.

00:06:08.340 I would expect them to become obsolete

00:06:10.660 based on our ever-shrinking attention spans,

00:06:15.140 plus the fact that there's so much other stuff to entertain us.

00:06:19.480 So, I don't care about the Oscars,

00:06:22.100 don't care about Brad Pitt,

00:06:23.120 don't care about anybody's political statements.

00:06:27.060 Let's talk about Biden.

00:06:28.120 In a somewhat, I guess we could call it

00:06:32.280 typical Biden situation,

00:06:36.000 he said something so weird

00:06:37.560 at a little town hall event

00:06:39.620 in, I guess, New Hampshire,

00:06:41.100 that everybody is yakking about it.

00:06:44.420 But, of course, they're leaving out

00:06:45.920 critical parts

00:06:47.360 to make you understand the story.

00:06:49.580 So, what happened was

00:06:51.000 somebody in the audience

00:06:53.320 asked him a question,

00:06:55.020 and in responding to the question,

00:06:56.940 he asked a question back,

00:06:59.000 have you ever been to a caucus?

00:07:01.300 And the person in the audience

00:07:02.540 who was asking the question said yes.

00:07:05.200 I think it was the same person

00:07:06.760 who asked the question.

00:07:07.580 That was unclear.

00:07:09.000 And Biden looks at the audience member

00:07:10.700 who said yes,

00:07:12.220 and says,

00:07:13.580 he goes,

00:07:15.280 you're a lying dog-faced pony soldier. 0.80

00:07:20.300 Now, it took a while

00:07:21.600 for social media to figure out,

00:07:24.600 what?

00:07:25.000 What the heck is a lying dog-faced

00:07:28.220 pony soldier?

00:07:29.600 And why would you say that

00:07:30.720 to somebody you want to vote for you

00:07:32.520 in public?

00:07:34.300 What is up with that?

00:07:36.660 But it turns out

00:07:37.400 it's not crazy.

00:07:40.180 It's just suboptimal.

00:07:43.540 Because apparently this is a

00:07:45.060 sort of famous quote,

00:07:47.940 but not famous enough

00:07:49.200 that I had ever heard it before.

00:07:50.420 But it comes from John Wayne

00:07:52.280 in the John Wayne movie.

00:07:53.800 I don't know which one.

00:07:55.460 And apparently John Wayne

00:07:56.540 called somebody a lying dog-faced

00:07:58.220 pony soldier.

00:07:59.440 When Biden said it,

00:08:00.640 people laughed.

00:08:02.080 And it was sort of a

00:08:03.460 sort of a gentle ribbing

00:08:05.300 because he just didn't believe

00:08:06.720 that she'd ever been to a caucus.

00:08:09.920 So my first statement about it is,

00:08:11.980 it's a big nothing.

00:08:12.700 It wasn't a sign of him

00:08:15.180 being senile

00:08:16.240 and randomly spouting off things.

00:08:18.460 It wasn't that.

00:08:19.700 He was making a joke

00:08:20.860 based on a reference

00:08:22.080 that not everybody got.

00:08:25.400 But,

00:08:25.960 as people pointed out,

00:08:28.800 do you want a president

00:08:30.240 whose references

00:08:31.880 are old John Wayne movies?

00:08:34.480 I mean,

00:08:34.840 just by itself.

00:08:36.460 If you didn't know

00:08:37.420 anything else about him,

00:08:39.120 and he's speaking in public,

00:08:40.480 and he's making John Wayne references,

00:08:43.400 that automatically

00:08:44.940 is a little bit

00:08:46.060 of a red flag, right?

00:08:47.800 Maybe he's not

00:08:48.800 of this generation

00:08:49.820 or of this world.

00:08:54.360 So anyway,

00:08:55.960 one of the patterns

00:08:57.620 that we're seeing

00:08:58.480 is that Biden

00:08:59.240 is getting in the face

00:09:00.600 of citizens.

00:09:03.520 Now,

00:09:03.760 the people he gets

00:09:04.420 in their face 0.63

00:09:04.940 are mostly people

00:09:06.480 who have asked

00:09:07.040 critical questions,

00:09:08.420 people who probably

00:09:09.180 aren't going to vote

00:09:09.820 for him anyway.

00:09:11.360 But,

00:09:11.920 have you ever seen

00:09:13.320 Trump

00:09:14.000 go after a citizen

00:09:16.340 like that?

00:09:18.260 Now,

00:09:18.580 he does mock

00:09:19.280 people who

00:09:20.180 make disturbances

00:09:21.520 at his rallies,

00:09:23.220 but I would say

00:09:24.140 that's people

00:09:24.660 who have started

00:09:25.420 the problem

00:09:26.000 and he's just

00:09:26.560 having fun with it,

00:09:27.520 etc.

00:09:28.360 But,

00:09:29.720 you don't see

00:09:30.580 Trump going after

00:09:32.200 people for just

00:09:33.140 their opinion.

00:09:34.840 Going after somebody

00:09:36.020 for disrupting

00:09:37.060 a rally

00:09:37.600 is going after

00:09:39.180 somebody for

00:09:39.720 bad behavior.

00:09:40.880 That seems fair.

00:09:42.420 Going after somebody

00:09:43.480 for a differing

00:09:45.000 political opinion

00:09:45.900 and insulting them

00:09:47.360 in public

00:09:48.140 feels like

00:09:49.640 not your best play.

00:09:50.680 and I'm noticing

00:09:54.840 this pattern.

00:09:55.740 Let me run this

00:09:56.320 by you

00:09:56.660 and see if you

00:09:57.340 see this pattern.

00:09:59.220 Democrats

00:09:59.740 as a group

00:10:01.620 and as a

00:10:02.560 philosophy

00:10:03.100 blame

00:10:05.740 other people

00:10:06.700 for problems.

00:10:08.400 If you listen

00:10:09.860 if you listen to

00:10:10.040 Bernie talk

00:10:10.620 he says

00:10:11.160 it's the

00:10:12.280 billionaires,

00:10:13.360 it's the

00:10:13.860 bankers,

00:10:14.580 it's the

00:10:14.900 rich people,

00:10:16.160 Americans.

00:10:17.620 So Bernie,

00:10:18.780 his entire

00:10:19.620 thrust is

00:10:20.600 blaming people

00:10:21.360 who have

00:10:21.840 money,

00:10:22.880 people who are

00:10:23.340 making the rules,

00:10:24.300 etc.

00:10:24.720 But it's

00:10:25.320 blaming people.

00:10:27.820 And I think

00:10:28.720 you would see

00:10:29.080 that with

00:10:30.200 all of

00:10:31.220 identity politics.

00:10:32.680 The whole point

00:10:33.440 of identity politics

00:10:34.460 is that one

00:10:35.500 group of

00:10:35.960 Americans,

00:10:36.720 usually Democrats,

00:10:38.000 are blaming

00:10:38.740 another group

00:10:39.340 of Americans.

00:10:40.240 So again

00:10:40.600 there's

00:10:41.000 sort of

00:10:41.900 an enemy

00:10:42.500 and it's

00:10:43.900 always Americans. 0.57

00:10:45.460 It's the

00:10:45.800 Americans you

00:10:46.280 don't like.

00:10:48.040 But when

00:10:48.400 Republicans

00:10:49.040 talk,

00:10:50.080 now of course

00:10:50.500 there's a

00:10:50.800 little bit

00:10:51.080 of overlap

00:10:51.580 so what

00:10:52.500 I'm going

00:10:52.760 to say

00:10:53.040 doesn't have

00:10:53.520 some universal

00:10:54.420 perfect truth.

00:10:56.020 I'm talking

00:10:56.360 about in

00:10:57.320 general

00:10:57.740 and on

00:10:58.800 average.

00:10:59.960 But on

00:11:00.340 average

00:11:00.760 and in

00:11:01.960 general

00:11:02.300 Republicans

00:11:03.760 usually

00:11:04.420 criticize

00:11:05.060 systems.

00:11:07.240 So a

00:11:08.220 Republican

00:11:08.640 is going

00:11:09.060 to say

00:11:09.440 taxes are

00:11:10.440 too high.

00:11:11.060 That's about

00:11:11.400 the system.

00:11:12.500 A Republican

00:11:13.060 is going

00:11:13.420 to say

00:11:13.800 we have

00:11:14.720 too many

00:11:15.060 regulations.

00:11:16.520 That's

00:11:16.920 something

00:11:17.240 wrong with

00:11:17.580 the system.

00:11:18.500 A Republican

00:11:19.120 is going

00:11:19.460 to say

00:11:19.800 we need

00:11:20.360 stronger

00:11:20.880 law enforcement.

00:11:22.800 That's

00:11:23.220 just about

00:11:23.640 the system.

00:11:24.760 A Republican

00:11:25.400 might say

00:11:26.100 we need

00:11:26.520 more

00:11:26.840 market

00:11:28.360 influence

00:11:30.720 on

00:11:32.020 pharmaceuticals.

00:11:33.300 That's

00:11:34.160 the system.

00:11:35.280 So look

00:11:35.720 for this

00:11:36.060 pattern.

00:11:37.280 It seems

00:11:37.660 to me

00:11:37.980 that

00:11:38.140 Republicans

00:11:38.680 tend

00:11:39.540 to

00:11:39.840 criticize

00:11:40.280 systems

00:11:41.080 when they

00:11:41.800 think

00:11:41.980 there's

00:11:42.180 something

00:11:42.380 wrong

00:11:42.660 with

00:11:42.800 them.

00:11:43.700 And

00:11:43.860 Democrats

00:11:44.380 tend

00:11:44.960 to

00:11:45.220 criticize

00:11:45.640 other

00:11:46.160 Americans.

00:11:47.360 It's

00:11:47.740 fairly

00:11:48.220 consistent.

00:11:49.780 Now

00:11:49.920 in both

00:11:50.280 cases

00:11:50.780 they're

00:11:52.080 blaming

00:11:52.660 something.

00:11:54.020 Everybody

00:11:54.360 likes to

00:11:54.960 blame

00:11:55.220 something.

00:11:56.200 But it

00:11:56.820 feels a

00:11:57.300 lot more

00:11:57.640 productive

00:11:58.080 to blame

00:11:59.080 your

00:11:59.340 system.

00:12:00.660 Don't

00:12:01.020 blame

00:12:01.320 the

00:12:01.720 people

00:12:02.020 for

00:12:02.260 being

00:12:02.520 evil

00:12:02.880 and

00:12:03.080 defective.

00:12:04.320 Now

00:12:04.460 I know

00:12:05.000 there are

00:12:05.820 plenty

00:12:06.100 of

00:12:06.280 Republicans

00:12:06.740 who

00:12:07.060 blame

00:12:07.300 people

00:12:07.740 and

00:12:09.180 accuse

00:12:10.380 snowflakes

00:12:10.980 of being

00:12:11.280 snowflakes.

00:12:12.640 But mostly

00:12:13.240 it's about

00:12:13.800 their

00:12:14.000 opinions.

00:12:16.200 It's

00:12:16.480 mostly about

00:12:17.000 their

00:12:17.140 opinions.

00:12:17.780 It's

00:12:18.000 not really

00:12:18.540 too

00:12:18.760 personal.

00:12:20.180 But the

00:12:20.520 Democrats

00:12:21.000 really feel

00:12:22.460 personal.

00:12:23.400 It's about

00:12:23.780 people.

00:12:24.920 And it

00:12:25.060 seems that

00:12:25.500 the Democratic

00:12:27.300 philosophies

00:12:28.060 seem to

00:12:28.740 grow out

00:12:29.340 of the

00:12:29.820 concepts

00:12:30.260 of fear

00:12:30.980 and jealousy.

00:12:33.460 Wouldn't

00:12:34.020 you say?

00:12:34.580 If you

00:12:34.940 look at

00:12:35.340 the top

00:12:36.440 Democrats

00:12:37.000 what they're

00:12:37.980 talking about

00:12:38.420 is fear

00:12:38.900 and jealousy

00:12:39.420 mostly.

00:12:40.560 Republicans

00:12:41.100 tend to

00:12:41.720 focus on

00:12:42.380 freedom

00:12:42.860 and efficiency.

00:12:45.240 Having a

00:12:45.860 good system

00:12:46.480 being free

00:12:47.240 to enjoy.

00:12:48.900 Now

00:12:49.080 Democrats

00:12:49.920 also use

00:12:50.700 fear

00:12:51.100 but it

00:12:52.500 usually is

00:12:53.160 more of a

00:12:53.560 campaign

00:12:53.880 thing.

00:12:55.340 All

00:12:55.420 right.

00:12:57.260 So

00:12:57.860 the

00:12:58.040 president

00:12:58.380 fired

00:12:59.000 two of

00:13:00.280 the

00:13:00.560 people

00:13:01.180 who

00:13:01.340 testified

00:13:01.740 in the

00:13:02.660 impeachment

00:13:03.020 process

00:13:04.000 Sondland

00:13:05.760 and the

00:13:06.580 two

00:13:06.800 Vindmans.

00:13:07.740 The

00:13:08.120 Vindmans

00:13:08.440 weren't

00:13:08.740 fired.

00:13:09.180 They

00:13:09.220 were just

00:13:09.500 reassigned

00:13:10.020 back to

00:13:10.400 where they

00:13:11.780 came from.

00:13:13.000 And

00:13:13.140 Sondland

00:13:13.520 I don't

00:13:13.880 think

00:13:14.060 needed

00:13:14.320 the job.

00:13:15.100 If I

00:13:15.440 understand

00:13:15.800 he was

00:13:16.120 a rich

00:13:16.420 guy.

00:13:17.520 He

00:13:17.740 wasn't

00:13:18.020 a career

00:13:18.440 politician.

00:13:19.380 So

00:13:19.440 he

00:13:19.580 probably

00:13:19.780 doesn't

00:13:20.020 care

00:13:20.200 that

00:13:20.380 much.

00:13:21.260 So

00:13:21.360 nobody

00:13:21.660 really

00:13:21.980 lost

00:13:22.400 out.

00:13:23.460 The

00:13:23.720 Vindmans

00:13:24.160 didn't

00:13:24.520 lose

00:13:24.760 any

00:13:25.000 money.

00:13:26.300 And

00:13:26.420 Sondland

00:13:26.900 had as

00:13:27.640 much

00:13:27.820 money as

00:13:28.200 he

00:13:28.300 needed.

00:13:28.680 I think

00:13:28.860 so it

00:13:30.560 wasn't

00:13:30.820 like there

00:13:31.420 were some

00:13:31.780 real victims

00:13:32.440 here in

00:13:33.140 any kind

00:13:33.800 of a

00:13:34.040 serious

00:13:34.360 lasting

00:13:34.800 way.

00:13:36.020 And

00:13:36.420 everybody

00:13:36.700 agrees

00:13:37.100 that

00:13:37.460 Trump had

00:13:40.060 the right

00:13:40.400 to do

00:13:40.740 it.

00:13:41.020 And he

00:13:41.180 has to

00:13:41.400 be

00:13:41.540 comfortable

00:13:41.860 with his

00:13:42.260 staff.

00:13:42.680 So it's

00:13:43.220 sort of a

00:13:43.580 big nothing.

00:13:44.420 But I

00:13:44.600 wanted to

00:13:44.920 call out

00:13:45.300 the

00:13:45.540 contrast

00:13:46.280 play.

00:13:46.680 Because

00:13:48.320 there are

00:13:48.560 people saying

00:13:49.180 it's bad

00:13:49.900 for him

00:13:50.240 to do

00:13:50.540 this.

00:13:51.000 It's a

00:13:51.260 bad look.

00:13:52.160 It's

00:13:52.480 unnecessary.

00:13:54.000 Blah,

00:13:54.260 blah,

00:13:54.540 blah.

00:13:55.300 But I

00:13:56.320 would argue

00:13:57.560 that Trump

00:13:58.980 consistently

00:13:59.720 uses the

00:14:00.700 concept of

00:14:01.580 contrast.

00:14:03.120 And the

00:14:03.600 contrast that

00:14:04.520 he consistently

00:14:05.700 uses is

00:14:07.600 if you do

00:14:08.120 good things

00:14:08.760 for him,

00:14:09.640 you say

00:14:10.040 nice things

00:14:10.560 about him,

00:14:11.420 he's going

00:14:12.160 to say

00:14:12.460 nice things

00:14:13.020 about you.

00:14:14.640 But if

00:14:15.340 you're a

00:14:15.960 critic,

00:14:16.380 or you're

00:14:17.020 a problem

00:14:17.420 for him,

00:14:18.360 he's going

00:14:18.780 to go at

00:14:19.240 you hard.

00:14:19.920 Because he

00:14:20.300 wants the

00:14:20.700 distance to

00:14:21.920 be as

00:14:22.240 far as

00:14:22.880 possible between

00:14:24.300 being on

00:14:25.120 his team

00:14:25.700 and being

00:14:26.640 opposed to

00:14:27.200 him.

00:14:28.080 That's

00:14:28.460 really good

00:14:29.440 basic

00:14:29.880 leadership.

00:14:31.200 Now the

00:14:31.460 people saying

00:14:31.980 hey,

00:14:32.360 don't go so

00:14:33.040 hard on

00:14:33.440 your critics

00:14:34.120 and don't

00:14:35.520 go so hard

00:14:36.080 on the

00:14:36.320 people who

00:14:36.800 are fighting

00:14:37.680 against you

00:14:38.400 are missing

00:14:39.560 the fact that

00:14:40.280 the larger

00:14:40.820 you can make

00:14:41.340 that contrast,

00:14:42.280 the more

00:14:42.760 effective you

00:14:44.020 are as a

00:14:44.460 leader.

00:14:45.040 So you see

00:14:45.400 Trump do

00:14:45.840 the contrast

00:14:46.640 play all

00:14:47.180 the time.

00:14:48.100 This is just

00:14:48.660 another one.

00:14:49.640 But you could

00:14:50.180 say, hey, he

00:14:51.100 really did it

00:14:51.680 because he's

00:14:52.240 mad at them

00:14:52.980 and it's just

00:14:53.520 personal and he

00:14:54.600 didn't need to

00:14:55.060 do it.

00:14:55.500 Maybe.

00:14:56.760 Maybe.

00:14:57.480 Things don't get

00:14:58.460 done for one

00:14:59.120 reason.

00:15:00.740 Whenever you say

00:15:01.480 there's only one

00:15:02.180 reason something

00:15:02.820 happened, you're

00:15:04.800 probably wrong.

00:15:05.920 Because there's

00:15:06.380 usually complicated

00:15:07.800 multi-part motives.

00:15:10.180 So Trump

00:15:11.020 probably liked it

00:15:11.980 for revenge,

00:15:13.080 just guessing.

00:15:14.200 I can't read

00:15:14.900 his mind, so I

00:15:15.720 don't know what

00:15:16.080 he's thinking,

00:15:16.660 but if you

00:15:17.720 were in that

00:15:18.080 situation, you'd

00:15:19.060 like a little

00:15:19.520 revenge, probably.

00:15:21.180 Probably also did

00:15:22.180 it because he

00:15:22.720 couldn't trust him,

00:15:23.980 and that's fair

00:15:25.040 for any employer.

00:15:26.480 But I think he

00:15:27.060 also did it to

00:15:28.440 establish that

00:15:29.440 big gap between

00:15:31.060 being on his

00:15:31.700 team and not

00:15:32.200 being on his

00:15:32.660 team.

00:15:33.320 So if there are

00:15:34.100 people in the

00:15:34.640 middle trying to

00:15:35.920 figure out, do I

00:15:37.200 speak up?

00:15:37.980 Do I become a

00:15:38.760 critic?

00:15:39.520 He just makes

00:15:40.300 it harder for

00:15:40.900 them to do

00:15:41.280 that.

00:15:42.400 So it's good

00:15:43.080 persuasion, even

00:15:44.020 if you don't

00:15:44.380 like it.

00:15:46.540 Trump, of

00:15:47.740 course, is the

00:15:48.920 greatest Twitter

00:15:50.300 troll of all

00:15:50.920 time, and so

00:15:51.860 he did his

00:15:52.380 Monday trick of

00:15:53.640 saying something

00:15:54.780 so provocative

00:15:55.560 that you can't

00:15:56.280 ignore it, and

00:15:57.300 it will start to

00:15:58.640 dominate the

00:15:59.300 headlines.

00:16:00.740 So here's his

00:16:01.700 tweet from this

00:16:02.320 morning.

00:16:02.760 This is just

00:16:03.420 delicious trolling.

00:16:06.420 I mean, it's

00:16:07.080 hilarious.

00:16:08.760 But here it

00:16:10.340 is.

00:16:11.220 He says,

00:16:12.160 because of how

00:16:13.680 badly they did

00:16:14.640 with the

00:16:14.980 impeachment

00:16:15.380 hoax, which

00:16:16.900 he capitalizes

00:16:17.660 now, impeachment

00:16:18.500 hoax is

00:16:19.060 capitalized now,

00:16:20.700 he says, AOC

00:16:22.420 will primary

00:16:23.480 cry and Chuck

00:16:24.520 Schumer and

00:16:25.360 win.

00:16:26.600 And Jerry

00:16:27.040 Nadler has a

00:16:27.740 good chance of

00:16:28.340 losing to his

00:16:28.980 far-left primary

00:16:30.040 opponent.

00:16:31.180 It is all

00:16:31.920 getting quite

00:16:32.420 interesting.

00:16:33.600 Pelosi will

00:16:34.220 lose the

00:16:34.640 House again.

00:16:35.820 My poll

00:16:36.200 numbers are

00:16:36.720 great.

00:16:37.100 Now, the

00:16:38.120 active part of

00:16:38.880 this, and

00:16:39.400 the hilarious

00:16:40.220 part, is

00:16:41.620 that AOC, we

00:16:44.860 assume, based

00:16:46.060 on what we've

00:16:46.800 observed, again,

00:16:47.820 I'm not mind

00:16:48.420 reading, I'm

00:16:49.040 just making an

00:16:49.980 assumption based

00:16:51.640 on what we

00:16:52.540 observe.

00:16:54.300 AOC seems to

00:16:55.640 be ambitious.

00:16:57.960 Would you all

00:16:59.060 agree that that's

00:16:59.680 true?

00:16:59.960 It's not an

00:17:00.460 insult.

00:17:01.940 It's just an

00:17:02.960 objective statement.

00:17:04.400 Would you say

00:17:04.980 that AOC is

00:17:06.480 ambitious?

00:17:07.520 I think you'd

00:17:08.100 agree with

00:17:08.460 that, right?

00:17:09.480 So you've got

00:17:10.200 ambitious AOC,

00:17:11.780 who has just

00:17:13.620 hugely successful

00:17:15.240 in dominating

00:17:17.440 the thought

00:17:18.660 process and

00:17:19.580 even the

00:17:19.980 policies and

00:17:20.840 the candidates

00:17:21.560 and everything

00:17:22.020 else, with the

00:17:23.280 Green New

00:17:23.660 Deal and

00:17:25.100 anything else

00:17:25.620 she says, it

00:17:26.160 turns out.

00:17:27.420 So does she

00:17:29.380 want to get a

00:17:30.080 promotion, and

00:17:31.100 it would be a

00:17:31.760 promotion, from

00:17:33.120 being in the

00:17:33.740 House?

00:17:34.160 Yes, there

00:17:35.100 are lots of

00:17:35.500 people in the

00:17:35.980 House, and

00:17:37.200 it's an

00:17:37.480 important job, but

00:17:38.960 it's not like

00:17:39.540 being a

00:17:39.940 senator.

00:17:41.220 Senator is one

00:17:42.380 step closer to

00:17:43.420 president, if you

00:17:44.440 know what I

00:17:44.800 mean.

00:17:45.960 So does AOC,

00:17:48.140 any time in the

00:17:49.020 future, have

00:17:50.600 thoughts of

00:17:51.420 becoming a

00:17:53.200 senator?

00:17:54.440 Because apparently

00:17:55.320 the only way she

00:17:56.200 could do that is

00:17:57.260 to wait for

00:17:57.960 crying Chuck

00:17:59.000 Schumer to

00:17:59.620 retire.

00:18:00.420 I don't think

00:18:00.940 that's going to

00:18:01.340 happen right

00:18:01.740 away, or

00:18:03.440 to primary

00:18:04.220 him.

00:18:05.380 And she

00:18:05.740 might have a

00:18:06.240 reason to

00:18:06.680 primary him

00:18:07.280 because he's

00:18:07.820 not radical

00:18:08.560 enough, according

00:18:09.200 to her.

00:18:10.260 Now, what

00:18:11.520 would happen if

00:18:12.400 AOC primaried

00:18:13.640 Chuck Schumer?

00:18:15.400 Who would win

00:18:16.380 that?

00:18:18.400 Well, Chuck

00:18:19.320 Schumer has, you

00:18:20.480 know, he's got

00:18:20.920 the base, he's

00:18:22.240 probably, you

00:18:22.960 know, got plenty

00:18:23.700 of funding, he's

00:18:24.740 got tons of

00:18:26.020 connections, he's

00:18:27.100 got history, he

00:18:28.480 has lots of

00:18:28.960 advantages.

00:18:29.440 Then there's

00:18:31.460 AOC.

00:18:33.480 AOC has so

00:18:36.240 much more

00:18:36.960 skill than

00:18:38.840 Schumer.

00:18:39.600 It's very much

00:18:40.240 like Trump

00:18:41.760 going up against

00:18:42.880 Hillary.

00:18:43.700 Hillary had 0.99

00:18:44.400 every advantage

00:18:45.540 a politician

00:18:46.240 could have, you

00:18:47.040 know, money,

00:18:47.900 connections,

00:18:48.640 experience,

00:18:49.360 everything you

00:18:50.080 could have,

00:18:51.260 except she

00:18:53.380 wasn't nearly as

00:18:54.180 good at persuading

00:18:55.200 and communicating,

00:18:56.440 at least in the

00:18:57.020 way that Trump

00:18:57.660 was.

00:18:57.920 So, hypothetically,

00:19:01.520 if AOC ran

00:19:02.580 against Schumer,

00:19:03.440 could she win?

00:19:05.140 I'm going to say

00:19:05.920 yes, which is

00:19:07.200 different from

00:19:07.680 saying she would

00:19:08.340 win, but it's

00:19:09.620 entirely within

00:19:10.860 the realm of

00:19:11.840 sort of a coin

00:19:14.060 flip.

00:19:14.920 I think it would

00:19:15.680 be interesting,

00:19:17.820 but I wouldn't

00:19:18.980 assume that Schumer

00:19:19.980 could keep his

00:19:20.580 job.

00:19:22.000 And what a

00:19:22.660 baller play that

00:19:24.120 would be for AOC

00:19:25.100 to take out the

00:19:25.960 leader of her own

00:19:26.860 party because he

00:19:28.360 wasn't radical

00:19:29.440 enough.

00:19:31.660 It would be a

00:19:32.560 real strong play.

00:19:34.160 Now, I have no

00:19:35.180 idea, none of us

00:19:36.520 do, if AOC has

00:19:38.280 ever considered

00:19:39.000 this play.

00:19:40.220 But because the

00:19:40.920 president put it

00:19:41.620 out there, we're

00:19:42.180 all going to be

00:19:42.620 chewing on it.

00:19:43.860 And it's going to

00:19:44.520 sort of think it

00:19:45.720 into reality,

00:19:46.960 because the first

00:19:48.840 step of making

00:19:49.640 something happen

00:19:50.420 is you have to

00:19:51.560 imagine it.

00:19:52.140 If the people

00:19:53.800 involved can't

00:19:54.740 imagine a thing

00:19:55.540 happening, they

00:19:56.140 don't act on it

00:19:57.000 because you can't

00:19:57.740 even imagine it.

00:19:59.640 Well, now we're

00:20:00.240 all imagining it.

00:20:01.700 I imagine that AOC

00:20:04.960 has already thought

00:20:05.700 of it.

00:20:08.980 So that was fun.

00:20:10.840 So the president's

00:20:11.940 insuring new water.

00:20:13.640 Now, also, AOC

00:20:14.600 news.

00:20:15.300 I'll give you two

00:20:16.040 pieces of AOC

00:20:16.880 news.

00:20:17.900 The other one

00:20:18.420 was, I had a

00:20:19.660 chance to ask a

00:20:20.780 teenager yesterday,

00:20:24.000 I said, hey

00:20:25.300 teenager, can you

00:20:26.420 name the vice

00:20:27.180 president of the

00:20:27.960 United States?

00:20:28.780 I just wondered,

00:20:29.840 do teenagers pay

00:20:30.860 attention to any

00:20:31.840 of this stuff?

00:20:33.240 And the teenager

00:20:34.040 said to me, Mike

00:20:35.320 Pence.

00:20:36.680 Knew it like that.

00:20:38.060 And I thought, oh,

00:20:38.560 that's pretty good.

00:20:39.940 And then said

00:20:40.660 teenager said to

00:20:41.540 me, but I can't

00:20:43.240 name anybody else

00:20:44.760 in the government.

00:20:46.380 Those are the only

00:20:47.020 two names I know,

00:20:48.320 just Trump and

00:20:49.840 Mike Pence.

00:20:51.460 And then teenagers

00:20:52.580 said, well, there's

00:20:53.580 also that one, who's

00:20:55.440 that one who, they

00:20:58.120 were making fun of

00:20:58.920 his religion because

00:21:00.360 of the vote.

00:21:01.660 And I said, Romney,

00:21:02.660 Romney.

00:21:03.500 And the teenager

00:21:03.980 said, yes, yes,

00:21:04.740 that's the one.

00:21:05.540 But the teenager

00:21:06.220 didn't know any of

00:21:06.920 the details, had

00:21:07.780 just sort of heard

00:21:09.140 the story passing

00:21:09.980 through.

00:21:10.960 And then I thought

00:21:11.880 I was done with the

00:21:12.580 conversation.

00:21:14.020 And said teenager

00:21:14.800 said to me, well, I

00:21:16.340 remember one other

00:21:17.400 politician.

00:21:19.360 And I said, do you

00:21:21.240 know who AOC is?

00:21:23.160 And teenager said, no,

00:21:25.100 I never heard of

00:21:26.320 AOC.

00:21:27.340 There's only one

00:21:28.100 politician, other

00:21:29.200 one that I can think

00:21:30.200 of.

00:21:32.160 And said, the

00:21:33.160 teenager said, the

00:21:35.200 name of the

00:21:35.700 politician is

00:21:36.800 Alexandria.

00:21:39.120 Alexandria.

00:21:40.500 And I said, you

00:21:42.360 mean AOC?

00:21:44.340 And said, teenager

00:21:45.500 said, yes, that's

00:21:47.200 it.

00:21:48.120 The Alexandria,

00:21:49.820 you know, Octavia,

00:21:52.140 Cortez, or whatever

00:21:52.880 it is.

00:21:54.580 I can never remember

00:21:55.660 her name, so I

00:21:56.440 always use AOC.

00:21:57.900 So think about

00:21:59.020 that.

00:22:00.100 A teenager with the 0.63

00:22:02.220 smallest understanding

00:22:04.080 of American politics,

00:22:05.980 I mean, just the most

00:22:06.820 minuscule understanding

00:22:08.420 had four data

00:22:11.000 points, and

00:22:13.040 AOC was one of

00:22:14.160 them, right?

00:22:16.700 Okay, Ocasio, not

00:22:18.640 Octavio.

00:22:20.000 I'm sorry.

00:22:20.880 There's a reason she

00:22:21.600 has a nickname.

00:22:23.640 Speaking of mixing

00:22:24.980 up names, that's the

00:22:26.300 story I was going to

00:22:26.900 tell.

00:22:27.160 So the first point

00:22:27.920 is, do not

00:22:29.420 underestimate how

00:22:31.460 good AOC is at

00:22:33.400 getting the attention

00:22:34.140 of people.

00:22:34.640 So even the

00:22:36.400 teenager knows who

00:22:37.320 she is and

00:22:37.820 doesn't know

00:22:38.260 anybody else.

00:22:41.180 So there's a big

00:22:42.240 story because AOC

00:22:44.140 was talking on

00:22:45.480 some kind of

00:22:46.020 video stream and

00:22:47.800 mixed up the

00:22:48.460 names of two

00:22:49.320 famous economists.

00:22:51.220 So instead of

00:22:51.820 saying Milton

00:22:52.420 Friedman, and

00:22:54.380 instead of saying

00:22:55.780 John Maynard

00:22:57.440 Keynes, she 0.99

00:22:59.100 said Milton

00:23:00.120 Keynes.

00:23:00.820 So she put the

00:23:02.100 wrong first name

00:23:02.920 with the wrong

00:23:03.340 last name.

00:23:04.640 Now, of course,

00:23:05.520 all the anti-AOC

00:23:06.800 people said,

00:23:07.500 oh, there she

00:23:08.560 is again, being

00:23:09.380 dumb in public.

00:23:10.700 How dumb can

00:23:11.360 you be mixing

00:23:12.420 up these two

00:23:13.060 names?

00:23:14.920 To which I

00:23:15.800 said, I don't

00:23:17.800 know, have you

00:23:18.460 listened to

00:23:18.900 anything that I've

00:23:19.900 said or written

00:23:20.840 for the last

00:23:21.440 three years?

00:23:22.740 Because here's

00:23:23.300 what I think

00:23:23.820 happened.

00:23:25.160 Everybody in the

00:23:26.060 country just

00:23:26.720 learned that AOC

00:23:28.680 has a background

00:23:29.660 in economics.

00:23:31.080 Now, in my

00:23:31.860 tweet, I said

00:23:32.560 a degree, I

00:23:33.680 think it's a

00:23:34.140 minor, a

00:23:35.140 minor in

00:23:35.580 economics.

00:23:36.680 Do you call

00:23:37.160 that a degree?

00:23:38.480 If somebody has

00:23:39.000 a minor in

00:23:40.580 something, is

00:23:41.440 that a degree?

00:23:42.860 I don't know.

00:23:43.240 I don't know

00:23:44.120 which words to

00:23:44.960 use of that.

00:23:46.080 But the

00:23:46.400 point is, how

00:23:48.060 many people in

00:23:48.880 the general

00:23:49.300 public have a

00:23:51.380 background in

00:23:52.180 studying economics?

00:23:54.680 Not too many.

00:23:56.400 So everybody in

00:23:57.340 the country just

00:23:58.020 learned, because of

00:23:59.020 this little minor

00:24:00.480 mixing up of

00:24:01.340 names, which we

00:24:02.140 all do.

00:24:03.180 In fact, I

00:24:03.760 just did it.

00:24:04.660 I literally

00:24:05.260 just did it

00:24:06.620 with AOC's

00:24:07.560 name.

00:24:08.220 Most common

00:24:08.820 thing in the

00:24:09.240 world.

00:24:10.000 Doesn't mean I'm

00:24:10.720 stupid. 0.90

00:24:11.200 Doesn't mean you're

00:24:11.720 stupid. 0.90

00:24:12.100 Doesn't mean

00:24:12.420 anybody's stupid. 0.94

00:24:13.080 It's just a

00:24:13.420 common thing.

00:24:14.280 But what did

00:24:14.860 she get out of 1.00

00:24:15.480 it?

00:24:16.400 The whole world

00:24:17.500 just found out

00:24:19.020 she has a

00:24:19.420 background in

00:24:19.960 economics.

00:24:20.780 Because most

00:24:21.240 people wouldn't

00:24:21.760 know either one

00:24:22.480 of those

00:24:22.760 economists.

00:24:23.860 She knew it

00:24:24.640 and mixed them

00:24:25.300 up, but that

00:24:25.820 puts her away

00:24:26.340 out of most of

00:24:27.140 the people.

00:24:27.420 So she came

00:24:28.760 out ahead.

00:24:29.720 I tweeted

00:24:30.380 that, and she

00:24:31.240 liked my tweet

00:24:32.460 within about 60

00:24:33.700 seconds.

00:24:34.820 So I think she

00:24:35.740 enjoyed that.

00:24:37.100 All right, let's

00:24:37.460 talk about a few

00:24:40.200 things, and I'm

00:24:40.800 going to go to

00:24:41.160 the whiteboard.

00:24:43.960 Oh, here's some

00:24:45.000 potentially exciting

00:24:46.540 news.

00:24:47.400 Now, when you

00:24:47.880 hear these new

00:24:48.640 scientific and

00:24:50.240 technical discoveries,

00:24:52.100 most of the time

00:24:53.160 they don't turn

00:24:53.860 into anything.

00:24:54.880 But they're still

00:24:55.960 fun to think

00:24:56.520 about, because

00:24:57.020 they do show

00:24:58.480 the potential, and

00:24:59.540 they do show

00:25:00.280 that we're a

00:25:01.040 world that's

00:25:02.040 inventing like

00:25:02.900 crazy.

00:25:03.400 Some of those

00:25:03.860 inventions work.

00:25:05.500 But it turns

00:25:05.900 out that researchers

00:25:06.640 at Ben-Gurion

00:25:07.900 University, so

00:25:09.640 Israel, they 1.00

00:25:11.340 have a new

00:25:11.680 technology in

00:25:12.640 which they

00:25:13.080 superheat water

00:25:14.400 until the water

00:25:15.620 becomes sort of

00:25:16.800 in a strange

00:25:18.040 state.

00:25:19.260 It's so hot.

00:25:20.580 And then they

00:25:21.040 can take the

00:25:21.540 garbage and put

00:25:22.300 it in that

00:25:22.660 water.

00:25:23.140 I'm simplifying,

00:25:24.080 of course.

00:25:24.320 And there's

00:25:25.120 something about

00:25:25.700 the highly

00:25:26.540 pressurized hot

00:25:27.700 water that

00:25:29.180 turns the

00:25:29.840 organic parts

00:25:31.040 of your garbage

00:25:32.140 into a gas that

00:25:33.580 you can use for

00:25:34.220 fuel.

00:25:35.360 And here's the

00:25:36.040 cool part.

00:25:37.080 It only does

00:25:38.140 that to the

00:25:38.620 organic parts that

00:25:39.540 can turn into

00:25:40.140 fuel, and all

00:25:40.780 the rest becomes

00:25:41.660 just garbage.

00:25:43.760 So, apparently

00:25:45.800 this works.

00:25:46.900 They've already

00:25:47.460 done it.

00:25:48.100 You know, it's

00:25:48.420 not theoretical.

00:25:49.500 They're actually

00:25:50.160 doing it in a

00:25:50.900 lab setting.

00:25:51.420 Now, imagine

00:25:53.160 if this is

00:25:54.220 something that

00:25:54.700 could scale

00:25:55.200 up.

00:25:55.880 And again, most

00:25:56.800 of these technical

00:25:58.080 things end up not

00:25:59.240 being scalable and

00:26:00.340 not really being

00:26:00.900 what you think.

00:26:01.740 But this one

00:26:02.380 might be, because

00:26:03.600 it seems like

00:26:04.160 they've already

00:26:04.600 tested it, and

00:26:05.500 there's not much

00:26:06.140 to it in terms

00:26:07.600 of how hard it

00:26:08.240 would be to

00:26:08.700 scale it up,

00:26:09.360 because it's

00:26:10.120 basic industrial

00:26:11.700 stuff.

00:26:12.200 There's nothing

00:26:12.600 exotic that needs

00:26:13.520 to be invented.

00:26:14.240 So, it could

00:26:15.740 be that, you

00:26:16.940 know, our

00:26:17.340 garbage and

00:26:18.180 some part of

00:26:20.540 our energy

00:26:22.760 problems just

00:26:23.860 had a big

00:26:25.260 turn.

00:26:25.820 Don't know.

00:26:27.260 All right.

00:26:28.340 I'm having fun

00:26:29.420 arguing with

00:26:30.240 people about

00:26:31.020 whether Trump

00:26:31.720 was impeached

00:26:33.180 or not impeached,

00:26:34.260 and I think you

00:26:34.800 know, I think

00:26:37.440 you know that I'm

00:26:39.780 doing this just

00:26:40.340 for fun.

00:26:41.440 In my book,

00:26:42.400 Loser Think,

00:26:43.640 behind me, in

00:26:45.540 my book, Loser

00:26:46.140 Think, I tell

00:26:46.980 you that it's

00:26:48.200 word thinking to

00:26:50.200 argue about what

00:26:51.420 label to put on

00:26:52.260 something if

00:26:53.720 everybody agrees

00:26:54.460 what the

00:26:54.820 something is.

00:26:55.840 So, with this

00:26:56.460 impeachment situation,

00:26:57.640 we're all looking

00:26:58.160 at the same set

00:26:58.860 of facts.

00:27:00.200 So, if you want

00:27:00.960 to call it he's

00:27:01.660 impeached and I

00:27:02.720 want to say he's

00:27:03.240 not impeached,

00:27:04.460 that's not a real

00:27:05.360 argument.

00:27:06.440 That's just, you

00:27:07.540 like your word, I

00:27:08.520 like my word.

00:27:09.080 It doesn't change

00:27:09.660 the facts that we

00:27:10.460 all agree on.

00:27:10.840 So, I do this

00:27:12.600 just for fun.

00:27:14.140 It's a complete

00:27:14.780 long-term prank

00:27:16.440 to make Democrats

00:27:18.760 go crazy.

00:27:20.260 Now, the argument

00:27:20.840 that I heard

00:27:22.480 Dershowitz make

00:27:23.140 is that there's

00:27:24.500 an analogy to

00:27:26.080 a criminal trial.

00:27:27.820 And, as Dershowitz

00:27:29.060 said, if it were

00:27:29.920 a criminal trial

00:27:30.780 and you got

00:27:31.900 indicted and then

00:27:33.240 you had your

00:27:33.720 trial, and let's

00:27:35.200 say you were

00:27:35.600 found not guilty,

00:27:36.820 at the moment

00:27:37.580 you're found not

00:27:38.380 guilty, you're

00:27:39.760 also no longer

00:27:40.540 indicted.

00:27:42.300 The indictment

00:27:43.240 doesn't mean

00:27:43.940 anything because

00:27:44.640 the trial is

00:27:45.700 over.

00:27:46.720 So, he would

00:27:48.120 use that analogy

00:27:48.960 to say, well,

00:27:50.220 if you get

00:27:50.740 impeached by the

00:27:51.440 House, but the

00:27:52.280 Senate doesn't 0.78

00:27:52.920 vote to remove

00:27:53.880 him from office,

00:27:54.800 it's like the

00:27:55.640 impeachment has

00:27:56.920 been nullified and

00:27:57.760 went away.

00:27:58.680 Of course,

00:28:00.100 Democrats don't

00:28:00.820 like that

00:28:01.300 interpretation at

00:28:02.180 all, and in a

00:28:03.640 way it's just

00:28:04.120 word thinking, but

00:28:04.940 it's worse than

00:28:05.480 that.

00:28:06.440 It's analogy

00:28:07.220 thinking.

00:28:07.640 So, saying

00:28:09.200 that impeachment

00:28:09.780 is analogous to

00:28:11.520 a criminal trial

00:28:12.320 just makes people

00:28:13.500 say, no, it's

00:28:14.540 not, because of

00:28:16.780 these differences.

00:28:17.900 Now, there are

00:28:18.320 some differences, so

00:28:19.080 I'm going to add

00:28:19.580 this thought to

00:28:20.920 it.

00:28:21.440 And again, this is

00:28:22.160 just for fun.

00:28:23.340 It makes no

00:28:24.200 difference what you

00:28:24.900 call it.

00:28:25.600 It just will drive

00:28:26.440 people crazy.

00:28:27.660 The argument goes

00:28:28.360 like this.

00:28:29.300 If you wanted to

00:28:30.240 compare it to a

00:28:30.980 criminal trial, you're

00:28:33.080 doing it wrong.

00:28:33.780 Because in a

00:28:35.260 criminal trial, you

00:28:36.200 have the indictment,

00:28:37.120 which is like a

00:28:37.960 mini-trial where

00:28:39.420 some evidence is

00:28:40.360 presented, but it's

00:28:41.260 not the full thing.

00:28:42.860 And it's not until

00:28:43.780 you have the real

00:28:44.440 trial that everybody

00:28:46.080 sees all of the

00:28:47.000 evidence and all of

00:28:48.280 the arguments.

00:28:49.940 So, in that case, it

00:28:51.360 makes sense that the

00:28:52.400 only real trial is the

00:28:53.980 trial, and the other

00:28:55.060 one sort of didn't

00:28:55.980 count.

00:28:56.660 So, if the trial

00:28:57.440 doesn't work, it

00:28:59.120 makes perfect sense

00:28:59.980 that the indictment

00:29:00.940 goes away as well.

00:29:02.260 But in the

00:29:04.560 impeachment, you've

00:29:05.120 got two votes.

00:29:06.920 Instead of one jury

00:29:08.260 trial, you've got the

00:29:09.740 House votes to send

00:29:11.280 it to the Senate, and

00:29:12.000 then the Senate has to 0.98

00:29:12.720 vote again to remove.

00:29:14.160 Now, let me ask you

00:29:14.920 this.

00:29:15.140 What is the point of

00:29:17.220 impeaching?

00:29:18.940 The only point of

00:29:20.200 impeaching, at least in

00:29:22.320 terms of constitutional

00:29:23.320 reasons, is to remove

00:29:25.260 somebody from office.

00:29:26.800 So, if you have an

00:29:28.000 impeachment without the

00:29:30.120 removing from office,

00:29:31.360 have you impeached, or

00:29:34.600 is it simply an

00:29:35.440 attempted impeachment

00:29:36.300 that failed?

00:29:38.020 And I would add this

00:29:38.980 to it.

00:29:39.840 I would say that you

00:29:40.860 are, if you're going

00:29:41.800 to use the analogy to

00:29:43.340 a jury trial, which

00:29:44.720 again is completely

00:29:45.480 irrational.

00:29:46.220 This is just for fun.

00:29:47.740 Analogies are no way 1.00

00:29:49.120 to argue.

00:29:50.300 But if you wanted to

00:29:51.120 for fun, to drive a

00:29:52.460 Democrat crazy, you

00:29:54.120 would say, you know,

00:29:54.920 if you want to make

00:29:55.500 that analogy to a

00:29:56.400 criminal trial, I

00:29:57.960 would say that in

00:29:58.600 impeachment, the jury

00:30:00.560 is the combined

00:30:02.920 House that votes

00:30:04.500 plus the Senate.

00:30:07.120 In other words, they're

00:30:08.320 all looking at the same

00:30:09.400 trial, which happens in

00:30:11.180 the House.

00:30:12.060 Because the Senate

00:30:12.920 doesn't have a separate

00:30:13.760 trial, the Senate is

00:30:16.020 just voting on what

00:30:18.620 they see, which is the

00:30:20.100 same thing that the

00:30:20.820 House saw.

00:30:21.840 So it's as if the

00:30:23.900 House plus the Senate

00:30:25.420 are just one jury trial,

00:30:26.880 they just vote in two

00:30:27.860 parts.

00:30:28.920 So if you have a one

00:30:30.440 jury trial, and the

00:30:32.380 sum of that is that

00:30:34.120 they find him

00:30:34.880 acquitted, would it

00:30:37.180 not make sense that

00:30:39.800 the impeachment, which

00:30:40.720 only had one purpose,

00:30:42.320 to remove somebody from

00:30:43.620 office, if it didn't

00:30:44.400 happen, I would say the

00:30:47.000 impeachment didn't

00:30:47.660 happen.

00:30:49.120 So I'm adding that to

00:30:50.660 the mix.

00:30:51.680 I don't think that makes

00:30:52.920 much difference.

00:30:53.900 All right, let's talk

00:30:54.580 about the coronavirus.

00:30:56.880 A Chinese ambassador

00:30:58.860 to the United States

00:30:59.660 was on face of the

00:31:00.420 nation, and was asked

00:31:02.120 if the coronavirus could

00:31:05.720 have come from a

00:31:06.700 biolab in China.

00:31:09.300 Now, have I taught you

00:31:10.340 how to detect lying?

00:31:13.020 Let me give you an

00:31:14.000 example of a liar versus

00:31:16.700 an honest person.

00:31:18.140 I would like to call in

00:31:19.560 my assistant, Dale.

00:31:21.800 I'm going to accuse

00:31:24.060 Dale of something he

00:31:26.280 did not do, and I want

00:31:28.180 you to show how somebody

00:31:29.120 answers the question

00:31:30.340 honestly.

00:31:31.560 In this example, Dale is

00:31:33.040 completely innocent.

00:31:34.780 Dale, are you a serial

00:31:37.120 killer who just killed

00:31:39.040 15 people yesterday?

00:31:42.020 No.

00:31:42.940 What the hell are you

00:31:43.900 talking about?

00:31:44.640 Get out of here with

00:31:45.440 that.

00:31:45.980 I'll kill you.

00:31:46.860 I'm going to sue you if

00:31:47.820 you tell anybody like

00:31:48.600 that.

00:31:48.840 That's ridiculous.

00:31:52.680 If the person says no

00:31:54.480 and gets a little angry

00:31:55.760 and wonders what the

00:31:57.520 hell is wrong with you

00:31:58.420 for even asking the

00:31:59.360 question, probably

00:32:01.660 telling you the truth.

00:32:03.420 Now, I'm going to give

00:32:04.260 you a second example in

00:32:05.940 which Dale is guilty.

00:32:08.820 All right?

00:32:09.560 In this example, he's

00:32:10.880 actually guilty.

00:32:12.540 Dale, are you a serial

00:32:14.280 killer, and did you kill 0.83

00:32:15.260 somebody yesterday?

00:32:16.060 Why would you ask that

00:32:19.540 question?

00:32:21.220 I think there's not

00:32:22.460 really much evidence of

00:32:23.780 who did the killing.

00:32:25.580 It's kind of ambiguous.

00:32:27.060 People are looking at the

00:32:28.340 evidence.

00:32:28.880 They're trying to figure

00:32:29.720 that out.

00:32:30.700 What have you heard?

00:32:33.640 That's guilty.

00:32:35.820 Innocent people say, no.

00:32:37.880 What the hell are you

00:32:38.780 talking about?

00:32:40.480 Guilty people say, well,

00:32:42.680 I'm going to leave the

00:32:43.420 door open.

00:32:43.920 I'm not sure I'll give

00:32:44.700 you an exact answer.

00:32:46.160 What do you know?

00:32:47.180 What do you know?

00:32:48.720 Now, I'm going to play

00:32:49.540 for you the ambassador

00:32:51.640 to the United States.

00:32:53.860 His name, I don't know

00:32:55.040 if I can pronounce it

00:32:55.800 right.

00:32:56.040 I hope I do.

00:32:56.760 Ambassador, I think it's

00:32:58.900 Kwee Tienke.

00:33:01.800 Maybe Swee or Kwee. 0.99

00:33:03.380 I think it's Kwee Tienke.

00:33:05.640 So, he'll be asked on

00:33:06.800 Face the Nation.

00:33:07.620 I'll play it for you.

00:33:08.760 Now, listen to his

00:33:09.560 answer after this setup.

00:33:11.900 Because it also gets

00:33:12.800 at, there's a lot of

00:33:14.260 unknown and a lot of

00:33:16.000 suspicion because of

00:33:17.220 that.

00:33:17.560 And in fact, this week,

00:33:19.380 Senator Tom Cotton, who

00:33:21.200 sits on the Senate

00:33:21.940 Intelligence and Armed

00:33:23.260 Services Committee,

00:33:24.660 suggested that the virus

00:33:26.000 may have come from

00:33:26.780 China's biological 0.99

00:33:27.980 warfare program.

00:33:29.860 That's an extraordinary

00:33:31.140 charge.

00:33:31.900 Yeah, it's one you

00:33:32.560 say no to.

00:33:33.280 How do you respond to that?

00:33:33.520 I think it's true that a 1.00

00:33:36.940 lot is still unknown.

00:33:38.420 What?

00:33:38.520 And our scientists,

00:33:39.920 Chinese scientists,

00:33:41.220 American scientists,

00:33:42.560 scientists of other

00:33:43.240 countries are doing their

00:33:44.180 best to learn more about

00:33:45.740 the virus.

00:33:46.420 What?

00:33:46.840 But it's very harmful.

00:33:48.280 It's very dangerous to

00:33:50.020 stir up suspicion, rumors,

00:33:52.340 and spread them among the

00:33:53.620 people.

00:33:54.400 For one thing, this will

00:33:55.300 create panic.

00:33:56.800 Another thing is that it

00:33:57.980 will fend up racial 0.89

00:34:00.260 discrimination, xenophobia,

00:34:01.700 all these things that

00:34:03.140 will really harm our

00:34:04.400 efforts to combat the

00:34:06.580 virus.

00:34:07.440 Of course, there are all

00:34:08.980 kinds of speculations and

00:34:10.380 rumors.

00:34:11.740 There are people who are

00:34:12.620 saying that these virus

00:34:13.680 are coming from some

00:34:15.820 military left, not of

00:34:17.160 China, maybe in the

00:34:18.180 United States.

00:34:18.840 Yeah, maybe the

00:34:19.320 United States.

00:34:19.680 How can we believe all

00:34:21.520 these crazy things?

00:34:22.580 How can we believe all

00:34:23.320 these crazy things?

00:34:23.920 It's crazy.

00:34:24.580 Where did the virus

00:34:25.160 come from?

00:34:25.580 It's absolutely crazy.

00:34:26.960 Where did the virus

00:34:27.060 come from?

00:34:28.420 We still don't know yet.

00:34:29.440 It's probably, according

00:34:31.060 to some initial outcome

00:34:32.620 of the research, probably

00:34:34.840 coming from some

00:34:36.180 animals.

00:34:37.120 But we have to discover

00:34:39.040 more.

00:34:40.340 There's a lot of

00:34:41.400 unknown.

00:34:42.340 So, did that sound

00:34:44.960 like a no?

00:34:46.820 Now, I would add this.

00:34:48.960 It seems unlikely to me

00:34:50.980 that the ambassador would

00:34:52.160 actually know the truth.

00:34:54.280 Because, let's say

00:34:55.680 hypothetically it was a

00:34:56.860 bioweapon.

00:34:57.440 would the people who

00:35:00.780 know it's a bioweapon,

00:35:01.940 again, hypothetically,

00:35:03.540 would they tell their

00:35:04.560 ambassador?

00:35:06.180 No.

00:35:06.920 No, they would not

00:35:07.700 tell their ambassador.

00:35:09.200 So, the first thing you

00:35:10.240 should know is the

00:35:10.920 ambassador doesn't know.

00:35:12.500 He doesn't know if it's

00:35:13.280 a bioweapon, because

00:35:14.060 they would never tell

00:35:14.760 him.

00:35:15.500 Because you wouldn't

00:35:16.280 want him talking to

00:35:17.320 anybody else and

00:35:18.120 saying, you know,

00:35:19.100 hey, Bob, don't tell

00:35:20.660 anybody, but it was us.

00:35:22.460 It was a bioweapon.

00:35:23.700 Because, you know, we've

00:35:24.340 got, you know that we

00:35:25.800 have this guy bugged

00:35:26.800 from top to bottom.

00:35:28.180 There's nothing he could

00:35:28.980 ever say that we

00:35:29.840 wouldn't know he's

00:35:30.480 saying.

00:35:31.040 You know, even on

00:35:32.720 encrypted lines, we

00:35:33.820 probably can get into

00:35:35.100 all of that.

00:35:36.480 So, I doubt that if

00:35:39.480 China knew it was a 0.88

00:35:40.520 bioweapon, if they knew

00:35:41.440 it was theirs, just

00:35:42.060 hypothetically, there's

00:35:43.160 no way they're going to

00:35:43.800 tell their ambassador.

00:35:45.040 That would be crazy.

00:35:46.600 But let me ask you

00:35:47.400 this.

00:35:48.040 If you're the

00:35:48.700 ambassador, if you're

00:35:50.960 the ambassador and you

00:35:51.980 know that you're going

00:35:52.620 to be asked this

00:35:53.380 question, wouldn't

00:35:55.160 you go to your

00:35:55.940 bosses, whether

00:35:58.100 that's President Xi

00:35:59.140 or somebody else

00:36:00.400 high up, wouldn't

00:36:01.480 you go to your

00:36:02.040 bosses and say

00:36:03.100 something like this?

00:36:05.060 Hey, boss, I'm

00:36:06.720 going to get this

00:36:07.480 question.

00:36:08.520 They're going to

00:36:08.980 ask if it came from

00:36:10.040 our bio lab.

00:36:11.860 Can I deny it

00:36:13.040 flatly?

00:36:17.200 Apparently, nobody

00:36:18.380 told them to deny

00:36:19.420 it flatly.

00:36:21.080 Why would they not

00:36:22.320 deny it?

00:36:23.380 When it would be

00:36:25.560 such a bad thing if

00:36:26.760 we were left to

00:36:27.620 suspect it was

00:36:28.420 true.

00:36:29.860 What recent history

00:36:31.040 have we seen in

00:36:32.920 which a government

00:36:33.720 got caught doing

00:36:34.900 something terrible

00:36:35.940 that killed its own

00:36:37.900 people and

00:36:39.440 initially denied

00:36:40.760 it?

00:36:42.120 Where have we seen

00:36:43.160 that recently?

00:36:45.440 Iran.

00:36:46.740 Iran denied that

00:36:47.960 they shot down the

00:36:49.140 Ukraine airline.

00:36:50.000 And then, when they

00:36:51.940 got cornered, they

00:36:53.000 had to come clean.

00:36:54.500 What did that do to

00:36:56.460 the government of

00:36:57.300 Iran? 0.79

00:36:59.220 Destabilized it.

00:37:00.340 A lot.

00:37:01.600 It was a gigantic

00:37:03.180 mistake for Iran to 1.00

00:37:05.300 try to cover up

00:37:06.200 something that

00:37:06.800 ultimately would

00:37:07.680 certainly be

00:37:08.260 discovered.

00:37:09.380 Just a complete

00:37:10.520 mistake.

00:37:11.240 China might not 0.99

00:37:14.240 want to make the

00:37:14.860 same mistake.

00:37:16.200 And one way that

00:37:16.880 you could avoid

00:37:17.500 making that mistake

00:37:18.540 is to leave

00:37:20.480 open the door

00:37:21.200 that we just

00:37:22.420 don't know what

00:37:22.920 it is.

00:37:23.860 Because then, if it

00:37:24.520 turns out that

00:37:25.400 some, I don't

00:37:26.980 know, hypothetically,

00:37:27.700 if we could

00:37:28.300 somehow prove it

00:37:29.820 came from their 0.95

00:37:30.540 bioweapons lab,

00:37:31.760 and I don't know

00:37:32.260 that that happened,

00:37:33.440 but if it

00:37:34.300 happened, they

00:37:35.520 would still be a

00:37:36.500 little bit cleaner

00:37:37.320 than Iran's 0.95

00:37:39.100 leadership was,

00:37:39.880 which flatly said

00:37:40.960 it didn't happen.

00:37:42.680 China did not 0.99

00:37:43.620 flatly say it,

00:37:44.880 say that they

00:37:45.700 were innocent.

00:37:46.580 They didn't say

00:37:47.140 it.

00:37:48.160 Worse, I taught

00:37:49.800 you that a

00:37:50.540 hypnotist learned

00:37:51.380 that people say

00:37:52.140 exactly the

00:37:53.480 truth, but

00:37:54.820 accidentally.

00:37:55.840 In other words,

00:37:56.400 their choice of

00:37:57.120 words is a

00:37:59.340 tip-off.

00:38:00.540 Listen to the

00:38:01.640 first word he

00:38:02.560 says.

00:38:05.700 Just wait for

00:38:06.220 his first words.

00:38:09.880 Listen, how

00:38:19.540 do you respond

00:38:20.140 to that?

00:38:20.360 How do you

00:38:20.540 respond?

00:38:22.120 I think it's

00:38:22.760 true that a lot

00:38:24.100 is still unknown.

00:38:25.620 And I'll say?

00:38:26.800 I think that

00:38:27.520 it's true.

00:38:28.920 Now, the

00:38:29.480 second part of

00:38:30.400 that sentence

00:38:30.880 is, it's true

00:38:32.360 that it's unknown,

00:38:33.880 which isn't even

00:38:35.120 an answer to

00:38:36.080 the question,

00:38:36.640 right?

00:38:37.420 It's true that

00:38:38.240 it's unknown?

00:38:38.740 She didn't

00:38:39.300 say, can you

00:38:42.040 address the

00:38:42.640 unknown?

00:38:43.680 She said, did

00:38:44.760 it come from

00:38:45.380 your bio lab?

00:38:47.020 And his first

00:38:47.700 words were, it's

00:38:49.400 true that we

00:38:51.800 don't know where

00:38:52.460 it came from.

00:38:54.460 So, a

00:38:55.480 hypnotist would

00:38:56.220 say that is a

00:38:57.700 Freudian type of

00:38:59.040 slip in which he

00:38:59.760 told you directly

00:39:00.480 that it's true.

00:39:01.600 Now, I don't

00:39:02.640 think he knows

00:39:03.200 whether it's true

00:39:03.760 or not, but he's

00:39:05.100 probably heard

00:39:05.840 better rumors than

00:39:06.700 we have, if you

00:39:07.460 know what I mean.

00:39:08.040 And he sounds

00:39:09.280 like he suspects

00:39:10.120 it's true.

00:39:11.780 Now, we can't

00:39:12.680 read his mind, but

00:39:13.720 the choice of

00:39:14.520 words leaves

00:39:15.500 that open.

00:39:17.620 All right.

00:39:18.260 Let us go

00:39:19.460 through the

00:39:20.760 facts and

00:39:23.660 the evidence

00:39:24.160 and see if we

00:39:25.300 can get closer

00:39:26.100 to understanding

00:39:27.240 something about

00:39:29.260 this coronavirus.

00:39:31.740 All right.

00:39:32.460 So, here are

00:39:33.760 some facts that

00:39:35.340 seem relevant

00:39:36.200 and, you know,

00:39:37.800 important.

00:39:38.560 It's not every

00:39:39.260 fact about the

00:39:40.700 coronavirus, but

00:39:42.980 they're the ones

00:39:43.400 that matter if

00:39:44.320 you're trying to

00:39:44.780 decide, was it

00:39:46.080 an animal and an

00:39:46.960 accident or a

00:39:47.920 bioweapons thing?

00:39:49.500 So, here are some

00:39:50.140 of the things.

00:39:51.180 Is it super

00:39:52.020 viral?

00:39:53.500 Don't really

00:39:54.220 know.

00:39:55.240 It seems it's

00:39:56.360 difficult to find

00:39:57.460 out if we're

00:39:58.220 counting everything

00:39:59.120 right.

00:39:59.520 So, we

00:40:00.440 actually don't

00:40:01.160 know if it's

00:40:02.480 more viral than,

00:40:04.100 let's say, a

00:40:04.840 normal virus would 0.55

00:40:05.740 be that came

00:40:06.260 from an animal.

00:40:08.300 Does it only

00:40:08.900 kill people who 0.86

00:40:10.780 are ethnically

00:40:11.640 Chinese or

00:40:13.400 Asian?

00:40:14.480 We don't

00:40:15.200 know, but

00:40:16.420 there's some

00:40:16.960 indication that

00:40:18.880 there's a

00:40:19.280 difference.

00:40:21.180 And I'll get

00:40:22.160 to these in a

00:40:22.640 minute.

00:40:23.140 We know that

00:40:23.680 it's near the

00:40:24.260 Wuhan Bioweapon 0.58

00:40:25.420 Lab.

00:40:25.860 Is that a

00:40:26.240 coincidence?

00:40:27.220 It would be a

00:40:27.520 pretty big one.

00:40:28.040 we know that

00:40:29.560 China is lying, 1.00

00:40:30.840 but they always

00:40:31.620 lie, so that

00:40:32.480 doesn't tell you

00:40:33.040 much.

00:40:33.820 And we know

00:40:34.520 that the

00:40:34.820 ambassador was

00:40:35.660 weirdly vague

00:40:36.520 about this.

00:40:37.720 That's a red 0.94

00:40:38.480 flag.

00:40:39.240 And we know

00:40:39.900 that the U.S.

00:40:41.160 did not act as

00:40:43.220 concerned as

00:40:45.080 some people

00:40:45.600 thought they

00:40:46.080 should.

00:40:47.040 In other

00:40:47.340 words, they

00:40:47.680 didn't immediately

00:40:48.420 close the

00:40:49.220 airport.

00:40:50.420 Why?

00:40:51.420 Did they know

00:40:52.200 something about

00:40:52.840 it that we

00:40:54.300 don't?

00:40:56.160 So, let's

00:40:57.780 take these and

00:40:58.980 decide whether

00:41:01.080 it's more

00:41:01.720 likely that it

00:41:02.340 was an

00:41:02.580 animal or a

00:41:03.280 bioweapon.

00:41:04.120 Now, let's

00:41:04.520 say the only

00:41:05.060 things you

00:41:05.560 knew is that

00:41:06.520 there was a

00:41:06.960 virus that

00:41:07.500 acted a

00:41:08.000 certain way,

00:41:09.340 and there

00:41:10.560 are two

00:41:11.120 theories.

00:41:11.660 One is that

00:41:12.100 it's a

00:41:12.360 bioweapon and

00:41:13.040 one is that

00:41:13.360 it came from

00:41:13.780 an animal.

00:41:14.620 If that's all

00:41:15.360 you knew, there

00:41:16.500 were no other

00:41:17.060 facts, you

00:41:17.660 didn't know

00:41:17.980 any of this,

00:41:19.380 all you knew

00:41:19.960 is it's another

00:41:21.140 one of these

00:41:21.680 coronavirus things

00:41:23.220 that usually

00:41:24.000 come from

00:41:24.420 animals, which

00:41:26.380 would be the

00:41:26.820 more likely

00:41:27.320 explanation.

00:41:29.220 Well, I hate

00:41:30.500 to make this

00:41:30.980 less interesting

00:41:31.740 than it could

00:41:32.280 be, but by

00:41:34.200 far, the

00:41:35.420 normal explanation

00:41:36.460 is far and

00:41:38.540 away the most

00:41:39.120 likely explanation

00:41:40.020 because that's

00:41:41.440 normal.

00:41:42.940 Animal to

00:41:43.700 human is

00:41:44.120 normal.

00:41:44.500 It happens

00:41:44.780 all the time.

00:41:45.760 How often has

00:41:46.920 a bioweapon

00:41:47.800 escaped from

00:41:48.620 a lab?

00:41:50.140 I don't know,

00:41:50.760 never.

00:41:51.000 So one of

00:41:52.840 these is

00:41:53.280 really exotic

00:41:54.000 and it would

00:41:55.500 be hard to

00:41:56.820 believe.

00:41:57.680 The other

00:41:58.140 one is

00:41:58.360 completely

00:41:58.700 normal.

00:41:59.840 But let's

00:42:00.380 look at the

00:42:00.780 facts and

00:42:01.440 see if one

00:42:02.200 of them

00:42:02.460 fits better.

00:42:03.920 If it's

00:42:04.660 super viral,

00:42:06.000 does that

00:42:06.660 tell you it's

00:42:07.100 a bioweapon?

00:42:08.940 Maybe, but

00:42:10.120 we don't know

00:42:10.680 that it's

00:42:11.040 super viral.

00:42:12.440 And we

00:42:13.100 also don't

00:42:13.640 know what

00:42:14.360 is the most

00:42:15.260 viral that

00:42:16.060 something could

00:42:16.700 be coming

00:42:17.220 from an

00:42:17.640 animal.

00:42:18.320 So I'd

00:42:18.660 say the

00:42:18.980 super virality

00:42:19.980 of it is

00:42:20.880 first of

00:42:21.260 all unknown

00:42:21.980 and so it

00:42:22.940 doesn't tell

00:42:23.320 you anything.

00:42:25.180 How about

00:42:25.840 the fact that

00:42:26.380 it might only

00:42:26.920 kill a certain

00:42:27.500 kind of

00:42:27.900 person?

00:42:28.780 Well, that

00:42:29.560 would indicate

00:42:30.300 it's a

00:42:30.840 bioweapon,

00:42:31.420 right?

00:42:32.640 It turns

00:42:33.260 out no.

00:42:34.780 No.

00:42:35.780 Because we

00:42:36.800 know that

00:42:37.280 there's

00:42:37.540 experience with

00:42:38.300 other viruses,

00:42:39.520 that there

00:42:40.400 are micro

00:42:41.260 differences in

00:42:42.380 ethnicities,

00:42:43.840 and sometimes

00:42:44.520 that micro

00:42:45.620 difference,

00:42:46.600 and it could

00:42:47.120 be just,

00:42:48.620 some have

00:42:49.160 said that

00:42:49.500 the receptors

00:42:50.440 a certain

00:42:51.140 kind of,

00:42:51.760 you know,

00:42:52.080 what is

00:42:52.340 it,

00:42:53.160 I don't

00:42:54.740 know,

00:42:55.000 ACE2

00:42:55.520 receptor or

00:42:56.460 something in

00:42:56.920 the lungs

00:42:57.380 is different

00:42:57.960 with Asian

00:42:59.220 men than

00:43:00.660 with anybody

00:43:01.160 else,

00:43:01.840 and that

00:43:02.240 those are

00:43:02.960 the ones

00:43:03.300 that SARS

00:43:04.600 and coronavirus

00:43:06.400 stick to.

00:43:07.920 So,

00:43:08.880 it's possible

00:43:09.560 you could

00:43:10.240 have a

00:43:10.840 normally

00:43:11.440 occurring

00:43:11.900 virus that

00:43:12.520 comes from

00:43:12.940 an animal

00:43:13.380 and actually

00:43:14.060 seems to

00:43:15.060 target one

00:43:15.600 ethnicity

00:43:16.060 more than

00:43:16.560 others.

00:43:17.360 Completely

00:43:17.820 possible.

00:43:18.260 Yeah,

00:43:19.380 it's like

00:43:20.180 the ACE2

00:43:20.760 receptors,

00:43:21.440 that's one

00:43:22.100 hypothesis

00:43:22.840 out there.

00:43:23.860 So,

00:43:24.160 the first

00:43:24.460 two are

00:43:25.960 ambiguous,

00:43:27.280 meaning it

00:43:27.940 doesn't really

00:43:28.420 tell you

00:43:28.820 anything about

00:43:29.420 which option

00:43:30.320 it is.

00:43:31.100 Now,

00:43:31.340 how about

00:43:31.540 the fact

00:43:31.900 it was

00:43:32.160 near the

00:43:33.420 main

00:43:33.740 bioweapon

00:43:34.440 place?

00:43:36.120 What about

00:43:36.500 that?

00:43:37.400 What are

00:43:38.060 the odds

00:43:38.740 that this

00:43:40.180 virus that's

00:43:41.040 so scary

00:43:41.680 would just

00:43:43.120 naturally

00:43:44.220 and coincidentally

00:43:45.260 come out

00:43:46.820 right next

00:43:47.880 to a

00:43:48.280 bioweapons

00:43:49.160 lab?

00:43:50.600 What are

00:43:50.920 the odds

00:43:51.320 of that?

00:43:52.760 Don't be

00:43:53.300 fooled.

00:43:54.360 Because here's

00:43:55.040 what the

00:43:56.220 trick is.

00:43:57.460 You know,

00:43:57.780 we can

00:43:58.060 easily be

00:43:58.800 fooled to

00:43:59.280 think coincidences

00:44:00.280 mean something.

00:44:01.700 Here's how

00:44:02.260 you should

00:44:02.600 see this.

00:44:04.140 There's one

00:44:04.920 coincidence we

00:44:05.680 know about

00:44:06.220 that that

00:44:07.600 bioweapons

00:44:08.360 lab was

00:44:09.460 nearby where

00:44:10.160 it started.

00:44:11.500 But you

00:44:12.220 could almost

00:44:12.940 guarantee

00:44:13.420 that there

00:44:14.720 would be

00:44:15.040 some

00:44:15.480 coincidences

00:44:16.260 in this

00:44:16.920 story.

00:44:17.660 Because

00:44:18.140 coincidences

00:44:18.900 are so

00:44:19.600 common

00:44:20.080 that

00:44:21.360 you'd be

00:44:22.720 surprised if

00:44:23.400 there weren't

00:44:24.080 one.

00:44:24.740 Now,

00:44:25.040 the odds

00:44:25.320 of that

00:44:25.660 specific

00:44:26.420 coincidence

00:44:27.120 may be

00:44:28.300 one in

00:44:28.940 several

00:44:29.600 thousand.

00:44:30.380 Very

00:44:30.860 unlikely.

00:44:32.260 But

00:44:32.620 the odds

00:44:33.920 of some

00:44:34.880 coincidence

00:44:35.460 that is

00:44:36.100 also

00:44:36.420 unlikely

00:44:36.960 was very

00:44:38.100 good.

00:44:39.020 So the

00:44:39.560 odds of

00:44:39.920 some

00:44:40.260 coincidence

00:44:40.720 was very

00:44:41.420 high.

00:44:41.780 and that's

00:44:43.340 what you

00:44:43.580 should be

00:44:43.840 looking at,

00:44:44.440 not the

00:44:44.900 odds that

00:44:45.520 this

00:44:45.720 specific

00:44:46.200 one was

00:44:46.700 uncommon.

00:44:47.760 Because

00:44:48.060 something

00:44:48.600 uncommon

00:44:49.220 was likely

00:44:50.680 to have

00:44:51.040 happened,

00:44:51.640 if not

00:44:52.100 this,

00:44:52.580 something

00:44:52.980 else.

00:44:53.660 So you

00:44:54.020 can't

00:44:54.400 really

00:44:54.720 rule out

00:44:55.440 that it

00:44:56.580 was just

00:44:56.880 an animal.

00:44:57.880 It's a

00:44:58.240 coincidence.

00:45:00.300 What about

00:45:01.480 the fact that

00:45:01.980 China is 0.85

00:45:02.440 obviously

00:45:03.000 lying about

00:45:03.680 this thing?

00:45:04.500 Does that

00:45:04.880 tell you

00:45:05.220 that it's

00:45:05.540 a bioweapon?

00:45:07.560 Unfortunately,

00:45:08.360 no.

00:45:09.220 Because China 0.94

00:45:09.860 lies about

00:45:10.420 anything that

00:45:11.000 would make

00:45:11.300 China look

00:45:11.800 bad,

00:45:12.500 so whether

00:45:13.020 it started

00:45:13.680 with an

00:45:14.060 animal or

00:45:14.580 it was a

00:45:14.940 bioweapon,

00:45:16.100 you're probably

00:45:16.920 going to

00:45:17.300 suspect that

00:45:18.040 they're lying

00:45:18.580 even if

00:45:19.040 they're not.

00:45:19.920 So this

00:45:20.320 doesn't really

00:45:20.740 tell you as

00:45:21.180 much as

00:45:21.560 you'd think.

00:45:22.740 What about

00:45:23.340 the fact that

00:45:23.840 we just

00:45:24.100 talked about

00:45:24.600 the ambassador

00:45:25.620 being vague

00:45:26.580 and looking

00:45:28.140 like he was

00:45:28.700 lying about

00:45:29.220 it?

00:45:30.020 Well,

00:45:30.660 I don't

00:45:31.140 think he

00:45:31.500 knows.

00:45:34.180 Common sense

00:45:35.040 tells you he

00:45:35.620 doesn't know.

00:45:37.200 So he

00:45:37.820 can't tell you

00:45:38.380 anything.

00:45:39.100 And it

00:45:39.400 makes sense

00:45:39.840 if you're an

00:45:40.260 ambassador to

00:45:40.980 leave open

00:45:41.540 all your

00:45:41.900 options.

00:45:42.700 So it

00:45:43.060 could be

00:45:43.340 that he's

00:45:43.700 doing nothing

00:45:44.220 but leaving

00:45:44.720 his options

00:45:45.260 open,

00:45:45.660 but he

00:45:45.860 doesn't

00:45:46.080 really know.

00:45:46.980 So you

00:45:47.600 can't really

00:45:48.000 determine from

00:45:48.640 him.

00:45:49.640 What about

00:45:50.180 the fact that

00:45:50.720 the U.S.

00:45:51.180 seemed a little

00:45:51.840 underconcerned?

00:45:53.900 Could it be?

00:45:55.220 Because we

00:45:56.100 know it's a

00:45:56.600 bioweapon that

00:45:57.320 only kills

00:45:58.120 people,

00:46:00.160 you know,

00:46:00.320 a certain

00:46:00.620 ethnic group,

00:46:01.360 and it would

00:46:01.700 be hard for

00:46:02.300 that to take

00:46:02.780 hold in this

00:46:03.340 country because

00:46:04.000 we're screening

00:46:04.820 pretty well.

00:46:05.400 well, so

00:46:06.200 maybe the

00:46:07.480 U.S.

00:46:08.440 knows more

00:46:09.180 than you

00:46:09.580 and I

00:46:09.860 know, in

00:46:10.340 other words,

00:46:10.660 the government

00:46:10.980 does, and

00:46:11.960 maybe they

00:46:12.420 didn't think

00:46:12.780 it was such

00:46:13.140 a big risk

00:46:13.740 to us.

00:46:16.720 But far

00:46:17.420 more likely,

00:46:18.460 the government

00:46:19.000 just acted

00:46:19.660 slowly because

00:46:20.480 there were

00:46:20.800 competing

00:46:21.240 interests.

00:46:22.360 Probably there

00:46:22.980 were people

00:46:23.320 who said,

00:46:23.780 no, we'll

00:46:24.580 lose a lot

00:46:25.020 of money if

00:46:25.460 you close

00:46:25.880 down the

00:46:26.280 airports.

00:46:27.260 Other people

00:46:27.960 saying, no,

00:46:28.580 we don't want

00:46:29.080 to insult

00:46:29.600 China.

00:46:30.460 It would look

00:46:31.100 like a slap

00:46:31.660 in the face.

00:46:32.360 That will cost

00:46:33.000 us later when

00:46:33.700 we're negotiating

00:46:34.380 for the trade

00:46:34.940 deal.

00:46:35.700 So you

00:46:36.080 can't rule

00:46:37.400 out it

00:46:38.380 was just

00:46:38.760 the government

00:46:39.260 being the

00:46:39.780 government and

00:46:40.460 having competing

00:46:41.160 interests and

00:46:41.780 acting too

00:46:42.320 slowly.

00:46:43.640 So all of

00:46:44.540 these facts

00:46:45.160 support both

00:46:46.800 hypotheses.

00:46:48.760 But one of

00:46:49.580 them happens

00:46:50.380 all the time,

00:46:51.840 at least we

00:46:52.560 know it's

00:46:52.900 happened before,

00:46:53.740 and one of

00:46:54.260 them has

00:46:54.520 never happened.

00:46:56.500 So, so

00:46:57.720 far, I'd

00:46:59.100 have to say

00:46:59.640 by far the

00:47:00.640 most likely

00:47:01.160 explanation is

00:47:01.940 it's an

00:47:02.660 animal, it's

00:47:03.800 a coincidence,

00:47:04.380 where it

00:47:04.800 was, etc.

00:47:05.860 But those

00:47:06.780 are not the

00:47:07.120 only possibilities.

00:47:09.320 So just

00:47:10.060 drawing this

00:47:10.760 out, if it

00:47:11.860 were a

00:47:12.160 bioweapon,

00:47:13.160 again, I'm

00:47:13.840 not saying it

00:47:14.460 is, I'm just

00:47:15.060 walking through

00:47:15.580 the thinking

00:47:16.280 here, if it

00:47:17.120 were a

00:47:17.360 bioweapon,

00:47:18.600 it's either

00:47:19.320 made by

00:47:19.720 China or 0.92

00:47:20.860 made by an

00:47:21.460 enemy of

00:47:21.900 China.

00:47:24.220 I think

00:47:24.840 that's

00:47:25.060 reasonable,

00:47:25.560 right?

00:47:26.560 If China 0.97

00:47:27.300 made it, I

00:47:28.500 think you'd

00:47:28.860 have to call

00:47:29.280 it a mistake.

00:47:30.240 In other

00:47:30.500 words, something

00:47:31.260 got out that

00:47:32.020 shouldn't have

00:47:32.400 gotten out.

00:47:32.920 Now, if it

00:47:34.400 turns out that

00:47:35.160 it's only

00:47:35.540 killing mostly

00:47:38.120 local Chinese,

00:47:39.500 ethnically Chinese 1.00

00:47:40.480 folks, whether

00:47:41.780 they're American

00:47:42.400 citizenship or

00:47:43.400 not, you'd have

00:47:45.360 to say, that's a

00:47:46.300 really big mistake,

00:47:47.760 because why would

00:47:48.380 they release

00:47:49.000 something that

00:47:49.540 only kills their

00:47:50.240 own people?

00:47:51.440 That would be the

00:47:51.980 biggest mistake you

00:47:52.760 could make.

00:47:53.080 And why would

00:47:53.500 they be building,

00:47:54.700 why would China

00:47:55.280 make a bioweapon

00:47:56.200 that kills them

00:47:57.840 faster than it

00:47:58.700 kills their

00:47:59.140 enemies?

00:47:59.480 It doesn't

00:48:00.560 make sense,

00:48:01.080 right?

00:48:01.720 Well, it is

00:48:02.380 possible, under

00:48:03.440 the mistake

00:48:04.000 scenario, that

00:48:05.540 they have lots

00:48:06.300 of, let's say

00:48:07.680 there are lots

00:48:08.240 of viruses that

00:48:09.240 they're working

00:48:09.720 on, and they

00:48:10.640 haven't tested

00:48:11.300 them all, so

00:48:12.460 they don't know

00:48:12.920 exactly which

00:48:13.660 ones do what.

00:48:14.920 So maybe this

00:48:16.220 was on the

00:48:16.740 list, hasn't

00:48:18.100 been tested,

00:48:18.780 they didn't

00:48:19.120 know it would

00:48:19.560 affect one

00:48:20.200 group more

00:48:20.660 than another,

00:48:21.500 because they

00:48:21.840 hadn't tested

00:48:22.340 it, and it

00:48:22.780 got out.

00:48:23.140 So, China 0.56

00:48:25.640 made a mistake,

00:48:26.880 totally feasible,

00:48:29.360 fits every

00:48:30.020 fact, no

00:48:32.020 problem at

00:48:32.460 all, it

00:48:32.780 completely

00:48:33.380 fits the

00:48:33.920 facts.

00:48:34.300 That doesn't

00:48:34.620 mean it

00:48:34.860 happened, or

00:48:36.080 even that it's

00:48:36.620 likely, it

00:48:37.180 just fits the

00:48:37.720 facts.

00:48:38.840 Now, let's

00:48:39.220 say it was

00:48:39.520 an enemy of

00:48:40.140 China.

00:48:41.820 Who would

00:48:42.420 do such a

00:48:42.940 thing?

00:48:44.120 Is there

00:48:44.660 any such

00:48:45.160 thing as an

00:48:46.520 enemy of

00:48:47.060 China who's 0.98

00:48:47.780 such an

00:48:48.140 enemy that

00:48:48.520 they would

00:48:48.800 do this?

00:48:50.180 And why

00:48:50.780 this, of

00:48:51.440 all things?

00:48:51.960 Well, what

00:48:53.580 kind of

00:48:53.780 enemies do

00:48:54.240 they have?

00:48:54.660 There's the

00:48:55.000 Uyghurs. 1.00

00:48:56.640 Now, if it

00:48:57.160 turned out that

00:48:58.140 the virus only

00:48:59.400 kills ethnic 0.88

00:49:00.400 Chinese and

00:49:01.500 doesn't affect

00:49:02.340 Uyghurs, except 1.00

00:49:03.140 maybe they get

00:49:03.760 a cold, you'd

00:49:05.500 say to

00:49:05.740 yourself, that's

00:49:07.020 kind of the

00:49:07.480 perfect weapon.

00:49:09.420 If I were a

00:49:10.360 Uyghur, well, 1.00

00:49:11.640 let me ask you

00:49:12.060 this.

00:49:12.860 If you were a

00:49:13.600 Uyghur, or a 1.00

00:49:16.260 sympathizer, and

00:49:17.600 you had access to

00:49:19.460 a bioweapon that

00:49:21.380 would kill the

00:49:23.560 Chinese people,

00:49:24.860 but not people

00:49:25.480 who are ethnically

00:49:27.340 Uyghurs, would 1.00

00:49:30.060 you use it?

00:49:32.100 Yeah, you

00:49:32.720 would.

00:49:33.700 Totally.

00:49:34.380 You would

00:49:34.680 totally use it.

00:49:35.940 And I would

00:49:36.900 argue that they

00:49:37.700 would be

00:49:38.200 justified.

00:49:39.940 Now, you say

00:49:40.540 to yourself,

00:49:41.060 wait, wait, it's

00:49:42.280 not justified to

00:49:44.020 kill civilians by

00:49:45.340 the thousands, you

00:49:47.260 know, just

00:49:47.520 because you've

00:49:48.040 got this issue

00:49:48.740 with the

00:49:49.180 government.

00:49:49.580 In what

00:49:51.280 world is it

00:49:52.040 okay to kill 0.97

00:49:52.820 citizens who

00:49:53.660 have nothing to

00:49:54.220 do with

00:49:54.480 anything, because

00:49:55.760 you're mad at

00:49:56.260 the government

00:49:56.680 for putting you

00:49:57.380 in concentration

00:49:58.200 camps?

00:49:59.140 To which I

00:49:59.920 say, totally

00:50:01.160 legitimate.

00:50:02.200 Let me give

00:50:02.640 you an 0.64

00:50:02.920 analogy.

00:50:04.460 Now, analogies,

00:50:05.260 of course, will

00:50:05.700 not persuade you,

00:50:06.780 but it will make

00:50:07.480 you think about

00:50:08.100 it differently.

00:50:09.200 Let's say you

00:50:09.980 were Jewish in

00:50:11.100 World War II.

00:50:12.420 You were living

00:50:13.120 in Germany, and

00:50:14.780 you saw the

00:50:15.380 Holocaust starting, 0.99

00:50:16.380 and you saw that

00:50:16.900 the German

00:50:17.340 citizens were

00:50:19.020 supporting.

00:50:20.480 Of course, they

00:50:21.240 didn't have too

00:50:21.780 much power to

00:50:22.420 stop their 0.96

00:50:22.780 government, but

00:50:23.320 the German

00:50:23.700 citizens, by

00:50:25.300 being quiet

00:50:25.980 about it and

00:50:26.580 not protesting,

00:50:27.580 sort of quietly

00:50:28.280 supported this

00:50:29.060 Holocaust. 0.77

00:50:30.320 Now, let's say

00:50:30.960 you invented a

00:50:32.960 bioweapon that

00:50:34.180 would kill only

00:50:35.100 Germans.

00:50:36.080 It's not really

00:50:36.660 possible, but

00:50:37.420 just for kicks,

00:50:39.120 let's say it

00:50:39.520 only killed

00:50:39.980 Germans, but it

00:50:41.660 would kill all

00:50:42.200 of them.

00:50:42.920 It would kill

00:50:43.500 every German.

00:50:45.060 It would kill

00:50:45.680 every citizen

00:50:46.580 who had nothing

00:50:47.260 to do with

00:50:47.780 the Holocaust. 0.58

00:50:48.520 They were just

00:50:48.840 minding their

00:50:49.300 own business.

00:50:50.580 Would you be

00:50:51.400 morally justified

00:50:53.340 in using it?

00:50:55.860 Yes.

00:50:56.600 Yes, you would.

00:50:57.900 Because all of

00:50:59.580 the citizens of

00:51:00.360 Germany were

00:51:01.340 enablers for

00:51:02.640 the Holocaust. 0.58

00:51:03.720 If your family

00:51:05.280 or you were

00:51:05.900 part of the

00:51:06.540 Holocaust, meaning

00:51:07.300 you were the

00:51:07.740 victims, would

00:51:09.040 you have any

00:51:10.020 qualms about

00:51:11.280 wiping out the

00:51:12.100 entire civilization

00:51:13.480 that supported

00:51:15.240 it directly or

00:51:16.100 indirectly?

00:51:17.240 Personally, no

00:51:18.820 qualms.

00:51:19.980 I wouldn't lose

00:51:21.060 a night of

00:51:21.640 sleep under

00:51:22.900 that situation.

00:51:23.860 Not a night

00:51:24.600 of sleep.

00:51:26.260 So, here's a

00:51:28.380 question for you.

00:51:29.740 I doubt the

00:51:30.380 Uyghurs have 1.00

00:51:30.980 access to this

00:51:32.060 technology, but

00:51:33.520 you can imagine

00:51:34.420 there's maybe a

00:51:35.740 Uyghur sympathizer 0.87

00:51:37.020 who works in the

00:51:38.020 bioweapons lab,

00:51:39.760 but that person

00:51:40.960 would be killing

00:51:41.660 probably his own

00:51:43.460 people because

00:51:44.660 I doubt they

00:51:45.480 let anybody

00:51:46.160 who's ethnically

00:51:47.760 Uyghur work 1.00

00:51:48.900 in a bioweapons

00:51:49.780 lab, right?

00:51:51.100 There are

00:51:51.460 probably no

00:51:52.200 Uyghurs working 1.00

00:51:53.100 in the bioweapons

00:51:53.960 lab.

00:51:55.280 So, I would say

00:51:56.580 that's very

00:51:57.040 unlikely.

00:51:58.460 They have a

00:51:59.060 reason.

00:52:00.100 They have the

00:52:00.680 best reason,

00:52:01.740 but very unlikely

00:52:02.800 they have the

00:52:03.300 access to do

00:52:04.020 that.

00:52:05.960 What about

00:52:06.820 never-againers?

00:52:08.660 You know the

00:52:09.200 phrase, never

00:52:10.460 again?

00:52:11.380 It refers to

00:52:12.500 the Holocaust. 0.58

00:52:13.980 And it's a

00:52:14.940 famous saying

00:52:15.540 where people

00:52:16.500 say, you

00:52:17.460 know, it

00:52:17.880 happened once

00:52:18.580 because people

00:52:19.640 turned their

00:52:20.380 heads and

00:52:22.200 they weren't

00:52:23.000 fighting hard

00:52:23.580 enough.

00:52:24.280 Not talking

00:52:25.060 about the

00:52:25.420 government.

00:52:26.420 We're talking

00:52:26.880 about the

00:52:27.340 people.

00:52:28.560 The people

00:52:29.340 let a

00:52:30.220 Holocaust 0.95

00:52:30.560 happen, the

00:52:31.600 people of the

00:52:32.100 world, and

00:52:33.800 never again.

00:52:34.320 Well, there

00:52:35.860 are two

00:52:36.160 versions of

00:52:36.920 never again.

00:52:38.120 One is, we'll

00:52:40.440 never again let

00:52:41.360 the Jewish

00:52:42.000 people be

00:52:42.580 rounded up

00:52:43.120 into a

00:52:43.480 Holocaust. 0.77

00:52:44.940 Perfectly

00:52:45.540 reasonable

00:52:46.140 interpretation.

00:52:47.780 Here's another

00:52:48.340 one.

00:52:50.040 Do you mean

00:52:50.660 it?

00:52:51.940 Are you serious

00:52:52.680 about never

00:52:53.160 again?

00:52:53.960 Because if

00:52:54.560 you're serious

00:52:55.100 about it, it's

00:52:56.580 not limited to

00:52:58.060 the Jewish

00:52:58.900 population.

00:53:00.080 If you really

00:53:01.080 mean never

00:53:01.660 again, like

00:53:03.240 you really mean

00:53:03.840 it?

00:53:04.320 Like you're

00:53:04.900 not just

00:53:05.280 doing it

00:53:05.720 for your

00:53:06.060 people?

00:53:06.820 If you

00:53:07.320 really mean

00:53:07.800 it, you

00:53:09.320 mean it.

00:53:10.660 What does

00:53:11.340 never again

00:53:11.860 mean?

00:53:12.760 It means

00:53:13.320 never.

00:53:14.220 It means

00:53:14.660 under no

00:53:15.400 circumstances,

00:53:16.840 never.

00:53:17.700 Not for the

00:53:18.480 Jewish

00:53:18.720 population, not

00:53:20.100 for the

00:53:20.580 Muslim

00:53:21.260 population, not

00:53:22.660 for any

00:53:23.160 population.

00:53:24.340 Never means

00:53:25.200 never.

00:53:26.960 Now, if you

00:53:27.560 were of that

00:53:28.340 philosophy, and

00:53:29.500 I would imagine

00:53:30.020 a lot of

00:53:30.360 people are, if

00:53:32.080 you were of

00:53:32.480 that philosophy, and

00:53:33.840 you had a

00:53:34.400 chance to

00:53:35.900 destroy a

00:53:36.640 huge part of

00:53:37.380 the Chinese

00:53:38.020 population, maybe

00:53:39.160 destabilize the

00:53:40.120 country, destroy

00:53:41.140 their government,

00:53:42.360 kill tens of

00:53:43.040 thousands of

00:53:43.560 people, but at

00:53:45.120 the end of it, there

00:53:45.800 might be a good

00:53:46.320 chance that the

00:53:47.320 Uyghur population

00:53:48.220 was released, would

00:53:50.280 you do it?

00:53:50.760 Yeah, you

00:53:54.720 would.

00:53:55.620 Would you have a

00:53:56.740 moral qualm about

00:53:59.040 destroying tens of

00:54:00.440 thousands, maybe

00:54:01.160 millions, of

00:54:02.580 people in the

00:54:03.440 country who had

00:54:04.500 nothing personally

00:54:05.460 to do with the

00:54:06.540 Uyghurs being 1.00

00:54:07.120 rounded up, but

00:54:08.520 they were

00:54:08.860 enablers.

00:54:10.200 They are, right

00:54:10.980 now, they are

00:54:11.540 enablers.

00:54:12.140 They are allowing

00:54:12.980 their government to

00:54:14.440 do it.

00:54:15.540 Would you have any

00:54:16.420 moral qualms about

00:54:17.300 that?

00:54:18.500 Yeah, look at the

00:54:19.120 comments.

00:54:20.400 Nope, you would

00:54:21.440 not.

00:54:22.300 So could you say

00:54:23.220 that there's nobody

00:54:24.900 in the world and

00:54:25.860 any biolab anywhere,

00:54:27.400 no scientist, is

00:54:28.760 there nobody who

00:54:29.420 could have made a

00:54:30.940 virus that would

00:54:31.920 target the Asian 0.95

00:54:33.380 population?

00:54:34.380 Now, I think, you

00:54:35.280 know, there's a

00:54:35.680 good chance we'll

00:54:36.200 find out that maybe

00:54:38.160 it doesn't target

00:54:39.000 anybody in

00:54:39.560 particular.

00:54:40.260 Those are

00:54:40.580 unknowns.

00:54:41.400 So if it turns

00:54:42.200 out it kills

00:54:42.880 everybody equally,

00:54:44.300 well, then I

00:54:44.800 think you could

00:54:45.320 eliminate these

00:54:46.160 possibilities.

00:54:47.360 Because nobody

00:54:48.060 would build a

00:54:48.620 bioweapon that

00:54:50.140 kills their own

00:54:50.780 people at the

00:54:51.400 same rate as

00:54:52.080 killing the

00:54:52.540 enemy.

00:54:52.900 It kind of

00:54:53.560 doesn't make

00:54:53.940 sense.

00:54:55.400 Would it be the

00:54:56.060 U.S.?

00:54:56.600 I can't see any

00:54:57.460 situation in which

00:54:58.360 the U.S.

00:54:58.900 would do this.

00:55:00.220 Can you?

00:55:01.200 We don't even

00:55:01.960 need to talk

00:55:02.440 about it, do we?

00:55:03.580 There's no

00:55:04.100 situation in which

00:55:05.140 the U.S.

00:55:05.760 government, the

00:55:07.020 government, would

00:55:08.200 do this.

00:55:09.020 But is there

00:55:10.860 one scientist in

00:55:14.340 any lab, in

00:55:15.700 any country, who

00:55:17.640 says that never

00:55:18.500 again actually

00:55:20.060 means never

00:55:20.700 again?

00:55:21.980 Does such a

00:55:22.800 person exist who

00:55:23.960 also has access to

00:55:25.840 a bioweapon?

00:55:27.660 Almost certainly.

00:55:30.280 Almost certainly.

00:55:31.800 The odds of at

00:55:32.900 least one person

00:55:34.020 who has this kind

00:55:35.680 of access and

00:55:36.400 technology being a

00:55:37.940 never-againer, which

00:55:38.960 is a perfectly

00:55:39.520 reasonable thing to

00:55:40.720 be, the odds of at

00:55:42.260 least one person

00:55:43.000 having this motive and

00:55:44.200 the opportunity,

00:55:45.480 pretty good.

00:55:46.780 Pretty good.

00:55:47.340 Close to 100%.

00:55:48.300 Doesn't mean they 1.00

00:55:49.300 did it, but their

00:55:51.220 motive and their

00:55:52.480 opportunity, probably

00:55:53.920 100% chance that

00:55:55.340 that happened.

00:55:56.580 All right.

00:55:57.160 So, if you're

00:55:58.180 looking at the

00:55:58.700 facts, unfortunately

00:55:59.660 the facts support

00:56:00.660 every hypothesis.

00:56:02.040 If you're looking

00:56:02.720 at the odds and

00:56:03.800 you're going to

00:56:04.200 bet money, if

00:56:05.740 you're going to

00:56:06.200 bet money, bet

00:56:08.000 on the animal.

00:56:10.080 All right.

00:56:10.820 Because given that

00:56:12.280 all of these

00:56:13.100 scenarios fit all

00:56:14.160 of the facts

00:56:14.900 that we know

00:56:15.720 so far, take

00:56:17.180 the common

00:56:17.620 one.

00:56:18.940 Take the most

00:56:19.680 common explanation,

00:56:21.320 the one that you

00:56:21.840 would expect.

00:56:22.520 Here's another one.

00:56:23.780 Came from an

00:56:24.420 animal.

00:56:25.020 It's a problem.

00:56:25.920 We're going to

00:56:26.200 take care of it.

00:56:27.740 If it turns out

00:56:28.760 it's a bioweapon,

00:56:29.800 and I don't think

00:56:30.720 we're going to

00:56:31.120 find that.

00:56:32.300 So that's my

00:56:32.940 prediction.

00:56:33.880 My prediction is

00:56:34.720 that the ordinary

00:56:35.540 will win.

00:56:37.000 But if we found

00:56:37.840 out it was a

00:56:38.380 bioweapon, what

00:56:41.600 are the odds that

00:56:42.180 China made a 0.97

00:56:42.840 mistake?

00:56:43.380 Pretty good.

00:56:44.540 Pretty good.

00:56:45.080 I would say that

00:56:45.640 the China made a

00:56:46.460 mistake is higher

00:56:49.640 than enemy of

00:56:51.340 China.

00:56:51.960 So I think this

00:56:52.600 is the lowest

00:56:53.500 odds is that it's

00:56:55.280 some clever enemy

00:56:56.380 of China doing a

00:56:58.120 never-againer

00:56:58.860 situation.

00:57:00.800 All right.

00:57:04.720 I'm looking at

00:57:05.580 your comments.

00:57:07.180 All right.

00:57:08.160 So what I wanted

00:57:08.800 to do was just

00:57:09.440 lay this out so

00:57:10.440 you can see how

00:57:11.100 the thinking works

00:57:12.220 and maybe not

00:57:13.060 draw conclusions

00:57:13.860 yet because I'm

00:57:15.120 not sure if

00:57:15.900 everybody knew

00:57:16.620 that all of the

00:57:17.520 facts we know

00:57:18.420 fit the ordinary

00:57:20.700 story, that it

00:57:22.780 was an animal

00:57:23.540 just like they

00:57:24.120 say.

00:57:25.100 Now, what about

00:57:26.120 the fact that it

00:57:26.760 happened near the

00:57:27.380 lab?

00:57:28.680 Coincidences happen.

00:57:30.520 In fact,

00:57:31.140 coincidences are so

00:57:32.260 common, there was

00:57:33.580 going to be a

00:57:34.080 coincidence, whether

00:57:35.540 it was that one or

00:57:36.360 some other one that

00:57:37.840 also made you

00:57:38.440 suspicious, well,

00:57:39.920 something was

00:57:40.480 going to happen.

00:57:41.380 All right.

00:57:41.760 That's all for now

00:57:42.400 and I will talk to

00:57:43.560 you later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 10, 2020

Episode 815 Scott Adams： Odds of Coronavirus Being a Bio Weapon, AOC Primaries Schumer？ Dog-Faced Pony Soldiers

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript