Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 834 Scott Adams： All The #Loserthink Around Coronavirus

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in here.

00:00:14.400 Did you miss me?

00:00:16.900 I hope so. I'm back.

00:00:20.600 Oh yeah, you can't keep me away.

00:00:22.800 Do you know how bad I had to feel yesterday in order to miss the simultaneous sip?

00:00:31.020 I'm far more addicted to it than you are, but I'm back.

00:00:37.460 And today, we're going to enjoy the best simultaneous sip of the entire epoch.

00:00:45.300 Epoch? Epoch. E-P-O-C-H. 0.70

00:00:49.660 It's a word. I don't know what it means exactly.

00:00:52.800 But I used it anyway.

00:00:55.000 Yes, let me explain.

00:00:56.240 So, I've been battling an intestinal problem, which for about one hour every day, has me screaming in pain.

00:01:07.500 Now, if I'm screaming in pain at 4 a.m., I'm usually fine by the time it's time for the simultaneous sip.

00:01:16.260 But yesterday, the timing was unfortunately bad, and I was screaming in pain at exactly when I needed to be on Periscope.

00:01:24.960 Now, I'm going to be completely honest with you.

00:01:27.720 The thing that makes the pain go away is medical marijuana.

00:01:34.240 It works every time.

00:01:36.520 It works 100%.

00:01:38.920 And it takes maybe half an hour to kick in.

00:01:44.640 So, I've been staying as stoned as I can stay 23 hours a day.

00:01:49.660 The only time I'm not is if I go to sleep and it wears off and I wake up in screaming pain, which is what happened yesterday.

00:01:58.640 I woke up a little too close to the Periscope time, and I didn't have time to medicate.

00:02:04.560 So, if you're wondering, Scott, why does your energy seem a little different lately?

00:02:11.160 It's because I've been doing these Periscopes pretty stoned.

00:02:15.380 Now, let me say as clearly as I can, I have never recommended marijuana as a party drug.

00:02:24.280 But as a medicinal option, there are some things it does that just nothing else can do.

00:02:31.180 Because do you know what the other drug I could be taking to avoid being in screaming pain 24 hours a day?

00:02:40.460 I think nothing.

00:02:42.400 To the best of my knowledge, there's not even another thing.

00:02:45.900 So, I'm just being honest.

00:02:47.480 But, I think it's time for the simultaneous sip because we've gone two days within it.

00:02:51.520 You need a cup or a mug or a glass or a tank or a chalice or a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:02:56.080 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:02:58.620 I like coffee.

00:02:59.560 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine to the day, the thing that makes everything better, the simultaneous sip.

00:03:06.740 Go.

00:03:11.380 Ah.

00:03:14.280 Anyway, long version short, I've got a plan for getting rid of whatever the hell is wrong with me.

00:03:21.660 I think it's C. diff.

00:03:22.780 If you're a medical nerd, that's what's going on.

00:03:26.580 But we'll take care of it.

00:03:28.000 All right.

00:03:28.520 Let's talk about this coronavirus because it's all we want to talk about.

00:03:34.580 It's all we want to talk about.

00:03:35.980 And one of the things that could happen, but I'm not seeing it happen, is that sometimes humanity needs a common enemy.

00:03:50.560 You need a common enemy.

00:03:51.920 And this coronavirus is a weird one because it should be a common enemy.

00:03:58.540 And it should be teaching us, hey, everybody, you better get along a little bit better because here's a good example of why you need to get along.

00:04:08.320 But it doesn't seem to be working that way.

00:04:10.500 So it looks like some kind of an exception to the common enemy driving us together.

00:04:16.800 It just doesn't seem to be.

00:04:18.820 Now, the coronavirus is going to be a test, kind of a stress test or an edge case for what I call the Adams' law of slow-moving disasters.

00:04:30.240 I've talked about this before in other contexts.

00:04:32.520 And the idea is that when humans can see a disaster coming and we all know it's coming and we've got time to prepare, we're usually fine because we're extraordinarily good at avoiding problems when we have enough time.

00:04:50.580 For example, we've not run out of food, even though our population grows.

00:04:54.900 We've not run out of fuel, even though our population grows.

00:04:59.160 So we're really good at it.

00:05:06.000 But do we have enough time with this coronavirus?

00:05:10.420 If all of the resources and creativity and energy of human beings went into solving this, which is, I think, what's happening right now, you're seeing massive resources being concentrated, do we have enough time?

00:05:25.520 Now, it may depend on how we manage it, how effective we are, how good our leadership is.

00:05:32.720 But let me just throw out some thoughts.

00:05:36.180 The biggest thing that's killing people, apparently, is lack of ventilators.

00:05:40.740 Because if you're older or compromised, especially, this coronavirus will get in your lungs, cause a pneumonia-like symptom.

00:05:49.260 And apparently, of the things we can actually do about it, there actually isn't much you can do about it once somebody has the virus.

00:05:58.060 Keep them comfortable, keep them hydrated.

00:06:01.080 But mostly, if it's a real bad case, you need a ventilator.

00:06:05.780 And there's not really anything else that makes much difference.

00:06:09.960 So here's the question.

00:06:12.940 How quickly could American engineers and manufacturers crank out ventilators in a crisis situation?

00:06:24.120 You know, the United States famously became a manufacturing giant because of World War II, maybe World War I.

00:06:34.760 I don't know my history that well.

00:06:35.980 But the point is that when the country needs to put all of its resources toward manufacturing, there aren't many things we do better.

00:06:45.800 We are, like, really, really good at manufacturing gigantic quantities of stuff when needed.

00:06:55.760 We do it when, you know, when we can make money, but we also do it for emergencies.

00:07:00.120 So here's a question I just asked on social media, and I don't have an answer yet.

00:07:06.300 You've seen CPAP machines, the things that people use for sleep apnea and snoring.

00:07:14.120 How different is that from a ventilator?

00:07:17.580 In both cases, there's a mask-like thing that goes over your, at least your nose, if not your mouth and your nose.

00:07:24.240 It forces air into your lungs.

00:07:27.360 CPAP, I think, is less than a BiPAP.

00:07:31.820 I don't know my PAPs, but apparently there's a slightly different machine that's closer to a ventilator.

00:07:37.880 But here's my point.

00:07:39.900 There probably are not that many hospital ventilators compared to how many we might need.

00:07:46.100 But I'll bet there are tons of CPAP machines.

00:07:50.780 And the question is, in an emergency, if you had to, would a CPAP machine operate enough like a ventilator that it could keep people alive?

00:08:02.860 It's not your first choice, and you wouldn't want people on them 24 hours a day.

00:08:06.780 But would it work in the short run?

00:08:09.380 So it's a question.

00:08:10.980 So the question is this.

00:08:12.760 Are they close enough that we could get a bunch of those going?

00:08:17.240 Because there are quite a few of them that are already available in the country.

00:08:21.760 People are using them for sleep apnea.

00:08:23.980 But maybe for short periods of time, a week, somebody with sleep apnea would say,

00:08:29.520 you know, I probably won't die of sleep apnea in a week.

00:08:34.140 You know, it'll be uncomfortable.

00:08:36.340 But maybe the guy, you know, lets somebody borrow my machine.

00:08:39.400 Now, I don't think we're anywhere near the point where people are going to be loaning their CPAP machine out

00:08:44.520 because they might need it for themselves.

00:08:46.320 But the point is, how hard would it be if we're already developing things like CPAP machines

00:08:53.640 to start cranking them out like crazy, perhaps with some tweaks to make them more like BiPAPs 0.96

00:09:00.900 or more like ventilators or to get that done.

00:09:03.460 So it's an unknown.

00:09:05.900 But any time you rule out human ingenuity in terms of manufacturing,

00:09:13.480 you're leaving out a really big variable.

00:09:17.080 So it's entirely possible that two things could be true at the same time.

00:09:22.300 It could be true that the coronavirus is more lethal by its nature

00:09:26.800 than maybe anything we've seen in this class.

00:09:30.520 While at the same time, if we do a better job of treating the worst cases,

00:09:37.180 it could also be the lowest death rate.

00:09:40.100 So you can't rule out that we could be so good at responding compared to the past

00:09:46.360 that it's the worst virus with the least amount of impact.

00:09:50.160 It's possible.

00:09:50.720 One of the things that President Trump is getting some heat on,

00:09:55.980 and indeed Rasmussen shows that his approval dipped pretty quickly

00:10:00.800 because of this coronavirus stuff.

00:10:04.220 One of the things he's getting blamed for is his reaction to it at the press conference.

00:10:09.360 And I don't know if people who are typically supportive of the president

00:10:19.120 are going to be siding with him as hard as you normally would.

00:10:24.960 If it were just a political event, probably people just take sides,

00:10:29.260 and it doesn't matter what the facts are.

00:10:30.880 People just take sides.

00:10:31.840 But in this case, I think you're seeing a lot more Trump supporters saying,

00:10:36.360 you know, I'm not completely happy with the way things are going.

00:10:41.520 But let's talk about that.

00:10:43.200 Let's talk about how well the Trump administration is responding

00:10:46.900 and how the media is treating them for that.

00:10:52.100 The first thing I'd say is that if you are sure that the administration is responding poorly

00:10:59.560 or if you're sure that they're responding excellently,

00:11:05.760 you're probably an idiot or you're either an idiot or you're lying. 0.98

00:11:14.180 Because the fact is we really can't tell the difference between a good job and a bad job

00:11:19.960 unless it's so extreme that anybody could tell.

00:11:25.180 But we're nowhere near anything like that.

00:11:27.720 We're somewhere in that bumbling middle range where we're feeling our way through it.

00:11:33.340 We're doing what we can.

00:11:34.720 We're working with limited resources, collecting information.

00:11:38.680 We're definitely in the bumbling phase of the crisis.

00:11:43.760 Now, human history suggests that we can move very rapidly from bumbling

00:11:50.620 to, oh my God, that was a good job.

00:11:54.220 It is what we do, right?

00:11:56.820 You put humans in that situation, day one, bumbling.

00:12:02.720 Day two, we know why we bumbled.

00:12:06.080 Day three, oh my God, you're doing a great job now.

00:12:09.000 And that was faster than we thought.

00:12:10.340 So we shouldn't make too much of how the first days go

00:12:17.480 because they are likely to look bumbling.

00:12:20.580 How rapidly we adjust is going to be the entire game.

00:12:25.700 So how are we doing?

00:12:27.780 I don't think, so here's the bottom line on the loser think

00:12:32.020 of looking at the administration's efforts so far.

00:12:35.240 You cannot compare what we've done, we meaning the administration

00:12:40.120 in the United States, compared to what another president would have done

00:12:44.160 because we don't have that test.

00:12:46.880 There's no other president doing the same job, but, you know,

00:12:50.620 different policies under the same situation.

00:12:53.340 You can't compare.

00:12:54.880 So there is no reasonable way to know if another president would have done

00:12:59.420 a little bit better than Trump or a little bit worse.

00:13:03.140 Really no way to tell.

00:13:04.180 Well, one of the things that we could probably, let's say,

00:13:09.680 have a good feel for, but still wouldn't know for sure,

00:13:13.560 is that Trump, by his nature, is a little more likely to close a border

00:13:18.660 than another president.

00:13:21.940 And there is some suggestion that the United States,

00:13:25.520 closing at least its travel from China,

00:13:27.700 hasn't closed as much travel as it could.

00:13:30.640 Still planes coming from Italy, for example.

00:13:32.900 But by acting fairly aggressively and early,

00:13:38.320 there's some suggestion that the United States bought itself

00:13:41.860 two or three weeks.

00:13:44.200 Because there's some thinking that the virus is coming,

00:13:46.960 you just can't stop it.

00:13:48.280 But we may have pushed back, you know,

00:13:50.400 the big lump for a few weeks, which gives you time to prepare.

00:13:54.320 So ask yourself, would a president who is in favor of more open borders,

00:14:01.500 a president who is more concerned about how it would look race-wise

00:14:06.400 if the travel was closed,

00:14:09.240 would another president have closed the borders so quickly?

00:14:13.240 Or closed traveling, I guess, so quickly?

00:14:15.700 And I think the answer is, not a chance.

00:14:20.140 Right?

00:14:21.200 I think the answer is not a chance.

00:14:23.860 So, you don't know.

00:14:26.580 I mean, maybe you throw a Bernie Sanders in there

00:14:29.500 and he closes it on the first day.

00:14:31.660 Maybe.

00:14:32.620 But it seems unlikely, doesn't it?

00:14:34.400 Because the anti-Trumpers are all saying,

00:14:36.580 Chuck Schumer said he was being too hasty

00:14:40.760 and it looked racist, et cetera, at the time.

00:14:44.160 So if we're evaluating what Trump has done so far,

00:14:48.880 the first thing is, did he act decisively and quickly,

00:14:52.940 even though public opinion wasn't with him yet?

00:14:55.360 And the answer is yes.

00:14:57.220 Now, was it fast enough?

00:14:59.300 There's nothing that will happen from any country

00:15:02.900 or any entity that will be fast enough.

00:15:07.480 Here's a rule that you should remember forever.

00:15:10.700 If something is the right thing to do,

00:15:13.580 you can't do it too fast.

00:15:16.680 From the moment that it could have been done

00:15:18.940 is when it should have been done

00:15:20.120 if you wanted the best result.

00:15:21.740 But we're human.

00:15:23.200 Things take a while.

00:15:24.920 There will never be a situation

00:15:26.680 where even people who did the right stuff

00:15:29.500 did it as quickly as it could have been done.

00:15:32.520 That's not a thing.

00:15:33.460 So if you see somebody criticizing somebody

00:15:35.780 for not doing something fast enough,

00:15:38.760 just know that that can be said for every situation.

00:15:42.120 It could be true,

00:15:43.260 but it also could be true of every situation.

00:15:48.120 All right.

00:15:48.800 So here's what I think the president got most wrong.

00:15:54.680 And I think people who are going to be criticizing him

00:15:57.280 are going to have some traction on this.

00:16:01.920 Number one,

00:16:03.440 I've long been making the case

00:16:05.520 that there's no such thing as a good president.

00:16:09.860 There is only a president who is well-suited

00:16:13.020 for the specific challenges of the time.

00:16:15.700 So in other words,

00:16:17.380 I believe if you were to take

00:16:18.960 whoever you thought were your top 20 presidents,

00:16:22.340 if they had been presidents in different circumstances,

00:16:26.040 may not have been so good.

00:16:28.140 So you have to have the right person

00:16:29.780 for the right challenges.

00:16:31.680 The best example is

00:16:32.680 a wartime president

00:16:34.440 might have different skill set

00:16:36.720 than somebody presiding over a golden age

00:16:39.420 with no specific war threats.

00:16:42.120 This is all a long way of saying

00:16:45.160 I think President Trump is the wrong personality

00:16:48.720 for this specific problem.

00:16:52.780 That doesn't mean he'll do a bad job.

00:16:55.180 I'm just saying

00:16:55.900 it's an extra challenge,

00:16:57.840 and here's why.

00:16:59.140 If you have an optimist president,

00:17:01.980 that is the greatest president you could have

00:17:05.220 when he's trying to goose things

00:17:07.420 that are already pretty good.

00:17:08.640 And I would say that the Obama economy

00:17:12.160 was solid by the time that Trump got it.

00:17:15.420 If you're trying to take something

00:17:16.780 from solid to really good,

00:17:19.880 you want a President Trump.

00:17:23.100 I doubt anybody could ever be better

00:17:25.480 at that particular skill.

00:17:27.440 It's a perfect fit of personality and circumstance.

00:17:31.080 You know, things are good,

00:17:32.440 but watch how good they're going to be.

00:17:33.980 Whoa, things are going to be amazing.

00:17:35.520 It'll be the best it's ever been.

00:17:36.740 It's going to be the lowest unemployment.

00:17:37.860 That's exactly the president you want

00:17:40.520 in that situation.

00:17:42.780 But our situation suddenly changed.

00:17:46.360 Now this situation is

00:17:47.700 that the best thing that the country could do

00:17:50.900 is to panic a little bit.

00:17:55.240 And what I mean by that is

00:17:56.580 you want the citizens to take this really seriously.

00:17:59.860 You want them to do what needs to be done,

00:18:02.320 but you don't want them to over-panic

00:18:04.840 and you don't want them to sell off all their stocks

00:18:07.580 before they should, etc.

00:18:09.300 So you've got this really fine line here.

00:18:12.420 Too much optimism makes you look like you ran a touch.

00:18:16.780 And that's what the President did.

00:18:19.100 The President applied a little too much optimism

00:18:21.520 because that's who he is.

00:18:24.000 You know, it's hard to turn that off

00:18:25.560 if that's your core personality is optimistic.

00:18:27.860 So given that Trump has two modes,

00:18:32.340 one, he's trying to scare you about something

00:18:35.000 that's somebody else's problem,

00:18:37.240 let's say immigration or China or whatever,

00:18:41.160 and he's good at that.

00:18:42.420 If he wants you to scare you,

00:18:46.140 he's good at that.

00:18:47.420 If he wants you to feel optimistic

00:18:49.100 because things are going great,

00:18:50.280 he's good at that too.

00:18:52.020 What he's not good at, apparently,

00:18:55.140 just based on what we've watched,

00:18:57.200 is hitting that fine middle ground

00:19:00.420 where you say, you know,

00:19:02.380 on a scale of 1 to 10,

00:19:04.120 let me tell you,

00:19:04.980 you need to take this as a 10 of importance.

00:19:08.420 But at the same time,

00:19:10.920 we're going to come out,

00:19:12.080 we'll come out of this okay.

00:19:14.100 That's a really hard message.

00:19:16.360 And I would say that President Trump

00:19:18.540 is just not the ideal person for that message.

00:19:21.640 Great on optimism,

00:19:23.540 great on scaring you,

00:19:25.600 but take it seriously as a heart attack,

00:19:28.460 but we'll be fine.

00:19:30.960 That's just not his sweet spot.

00:19:32.760 And I think we saw that.

00:19:34.540 Next thing he did wrong was,

00:19:36.320 even though I think logically

00:19:40.820 the selection of Pence

00:19:43.000 to lead off the thing,

00:19:46.000 it might, and I don't know this,

00:19:47.940 I'm just speculating,

00:19:50.420 it might be exactly the right thing,

00:19:53.040 functionally.

00:19:54.400 Because if Pence is a smart enough manager,

00:19:56.980 and there's every reason to believe

00:19:58.460 he's smart enough,

00:19:59.840 what he's going to do is be the club,

00:20:02.400 I think Azar called him the club,

00:20:04.420 within the government.

00:20:06.600 But he's going to let the experts

00:20:08.260 do the expert stuff,

00:20:09.440 so he's already,

00:20:10.900 apparently there's some person

00:20:12.660 with a medical background

00:20:13.840 who's appointed to be sort of a,

00:20:15.760 the czar below Pence,

00:20:17.740 and of course he'll have access

00:20:19.100 to all the resources of the government,

00:20:21.180 and he'll be able to beat people up faster

00:20:23.600 than some other job could.

00:20:26.040 You don't want an unknown 0.82

00:20:27.380 leading an effort this important,

00:20:30.260 because the unknown might not be able

00:20:31.940 to pull all the levers

00:20:33.380 and make the phone calls

00:20:35.100 and get people to,

00:20:36.260 you know,

00:20:36.720 do things immediately.

00:20:38.620 But the Vice President

00:20:39.960 of the United States

00:20:41.100 under the direct,

00:20:42.100 under the direct control

00:20:43.680 of the President,

00:20:44.940 I think if the Vice President

00:20:46.940 calls you

00:20:47.680 under this circumstance,

00:20:50.020 you kind of do whatever he wants,

00:20:53.000 right,

00:20:53.280 because he's got the authority

00:20:54.300 in the office

00:20:54.900 and he's close enough

00:20:55.780 to the President.

00:20:57.280 So,

00:20:58.220 so it could be

00:20:59.380 that this is exactly

00:21:01.360 the right move,

00:21:02.900 but it might not be.

00:21:04.960 Let me give you

00:21:05.580 a couple of other possibilities.

00:21:08.960 The problem with Pence

00:21:10.100 is that the knock against him

00:21:12.220 from the other team,

00:21:13.700 the Democrats,

00:21:14.340 is that he's anti-science.

00:21:17.400 And,

00:21:17.900 you know,

00:21:19.240 the examples would be

00:21:20.520 climate change

00:21:21.500 and probably something

00:21:23.680 in the LGBTQ world.

00:21:26.560 But,

00:21:27.180 is Pence going to be

00:21:29.660 anti-science

00:21:30.640 about a virus?

00:21:32.700 Well,

00:21:33.140 probably not,

00:21:34.640 right?

00:21:35.180 Do you think

00:21:35.740 there's any chance

00:21:36.620 that Pence

00:21:38.100 is going to overrule

00:21:39.580 any scientific

00:21:40.660 or technical person

00:21:42.080 who is working on this?

00:21:43.560 is he going to say,

00:21:44.740 you know,

00:21:45.400 I hear all your science,

00:21:46.900 but I read in my Bible

00:21:48.160 something different,

00:21:49.880 so I'm going to overrule you?

00:21:50.940 No.

00:21:51.840 No.

00:21:52.440 That's not going to happen.

00:21:53.980 There's not even

00:21:54.500 the slightest chance

00:21:55.500 that's going to happen.

00:21:57.120 So,

00:21:57.640 I don't think

00:21:58.100 there's any realistic risk

00:21:59.780 that having a Mike Pence

00:22:01.820 gives you any kind

00:22:02.880 of anti-science outcome.

00:22:05.020 I think the risk of that

00:22:06.300 is exactly zero.

00:22:08.140 He is going to listen

00:22:09.140 to the experts.

00:22:10.840 I just,

00:22:11.460 I just feel like

00:22:12.480 there's no,

00:22:13.560 there's no real risk there.

00:22:16.360 But,

00:22:17.040 it does look bad.

00:22:18.860 I've got to say,

00:22:19.660 if you're trying

00:22:20.160 to make the country

00:22:21.040 feel confident

00:22:22.000 in your response,

00:22:24.880 does Mike Pence

00:22:25.800 get you there?

00:22:27.380 Let me throw out

00:22:28.360 a second idea,

00:22:29.580 just for comparison.

00:22:31.140 This is not a suggestion,

00:22:33.320 it's something

00:22:34.160 for comparison.

00:22:35.680 Suppose the president

00:22:36.720 had put the military

00:22:37.900 in charge of the response.

00:22:39.700 you know,

00:22:41.100 whoever,

00:22:41.620 a general of some kind.

00:22:43.180 Would you feel

00:22:44.280 more comfortable

00:22:45.380 if the military

00:22:47.080 were in charge

00:22:47.860 of the coronavirus response?

00:22:50.300 Or would you feel

00:22:51.820 that it's scarier?

00:22:53.940 I think it could go

00:22:57.820 either way.

00:22:59.840 There,

00:23:02.220 I want to see

00:23:03.240 in your comments,

00:23:04.260 if having the military

00:23:05.280 in charge

00:23:06.220 would make you

00:23:07.600 feel better

00:23:08.300 or worse

00:23:09.140 than having

00:23:10.100 the civilian leader

00:23:11.380 Mike Pence.

00:23:12.560 And remember,

00:23:13.380 the advantage

00:23:14.180 of Mike Pence

00:23:14.740 is not his expertise,

00:23:16.580 nor is he telling you

00:23:18.220 it is.

00:23:19.340 The advantage

00:23:20.300 of Mike Pence

00:23:21.040 is that he's

00:23:22.000 a heartbeat away

00:23:23.300 from the presidency

00:23:24.120 and you don't want

00:23:26.560 to send your B team

00:23:27.560 after the coronavirus.

00:23:30.320 Right?

00:23:30.580 If Mike Pence

00:23:31.540 says something

00:23:32.220 that has to be done

00:23:33.000 under these conditions

00:23:34.320 with the authority

00:23:35.720 that, you know,

00:23:36.460 he's getting

00:23:36.860 from the executive office,

00:23:38.240 I think he's just

00:23:39.720 a giant club

00:23:40.580 for getting stuff done

00:23:41.620 and that might be

00:23:42.240 exactly what we need.

00:23:45.580 Yeah,

00:23:46.180 so I'm looking

00:23:46.980 at your responses

00:23:47.660 and there seems

00:23:50.060 to be a consensus

00:23:51.280 that a military leadership

00:23:53.460 would be scary.

00:23:56.040 That's my feeling, too.

00:23:58.220 Here's the counter-argument.

00:24:00.580 All right?

00:24:00.880 The counter-argument is

00:24:02.880 it's going to get there

00:24:04.720 no matter what.

00:24:06.400 Meaning that

00:24:07.300 if the emergency

00:24:09.640 reaches a large enough

00:24:11.160 critical level,

00:24:14.600 it might be that

00:24:15.880 nobody but the military

00:24:17.360 would have the capability

00:24:19.140 of handling

00:24:19.780 whatever falls out

00:24:21.100 from that.

00:24:21.960 Now, I don't know

00:24:22.520 that that's necessarily true,

00:24:24.220 but we could easily

00:24:25.120 get there.

00:24:26.180 All right, so

00:24:26.820 is Mike Pence

00:24:28.880 the right person?

00:24:31.760 Probably the right person

00:24:33.200 functionally.

00:24:34.760 Probably not the right person

00:24:36.440 from a messaging

00:24:37.420 and making the country

00:24:39.560 feel comfortable.

00:24:40.380 So I think the administration

00:24:41.980 needs to sell that

00:24:43.260 a little bit better

00:24:44.020 and that might be

00:24:45.560 in the form of

00:24:47.180 describing what

00:24:48.100 Mike Pence is doing

00:24:49.140 and not doing.

00:24:51.200 And I think the country

00:24:52.220 needs to see

00:24:53.180 Mike Pence say,

00:24:55.020 hey, America, 0.86

00:24:56.160 I just want to be

00:24:57.160 sure you understand

00:24:58.380 that I, Mike Pence,

00:24:59.820 will not be making

00:25:00.700 medical decisions

00:25:01.680 and I'll be as

00:25:03.840 transparent as I can

00:25:05.040 so you can know

00:25:05.760 what I'm doing

00:25:06.280 and not doing.

00:25:06.800 But mostly,

00:25:09.240 I'm making sure

00:25:09.980 resources get to

00:25:11.060 the right place.

00:25:12.420 I'm not going to

00:25:13.040 be your expert

00:25:13.680 and I'm not going

00:25:14.460 to slow down

00:25:15.080 the experts.

00:25:15.980 I'm going to

00:25:16.740 accelerate them.

00:25:18.000 I'm throwing resources

00:25:19.160 toward the experts.

00:25:20.720 So that's what I'm

00:25:21.720 doing in my job.

00:25:23.620 If he explains it

00:25:24.660 that way,

00:25:25.060 I think people

00:25:26.060 are going to say,

00:25:26.540 oh, okay, I get it.

00:25:27.540 You know, you're not

00:25:28.180 trying to be a scientist.

00:25:29.860 That would be

00:25:30.560 a crazy idea.

00:25:31.660 You're trying to

00:25:32.140 get them money,

00:25:33.220 basically.

00:25:34.240 Get them money,

00:25:34.980 get them,

00:25:35.420 get them attention,

00:25:37.160 get them resources.

00:25:40.080 All right, so

00:25:41.020 you're seeing a bunch

00:25:42.920 of criticisms

00:25:43.620 from the usual suspects

00:25:45.540 about Trump's

00:25:46.700 performance here

00:25:47.360 and

00:25:48.500 they're going for

00:25:50.620 all these vague

00:25:51.400 things

00:25:51.920 such as,

00:25:53.500 well, this president

00:25:54.620 has, you know,

00:25:55.940 degraded the

00:25:57.100 credibility

00:25:57.620 of the country

00:25:58.720 just when

00:25:59.520 credibility

00:26:00.700 will be the

00:26:01.700 thing we need

00:26:02.420 and trust.

00:26:03.960 And you hear

00:26:04.400 those arguments

00:26:05.060 and you say

00:26:05.580 to yourself,

00:26:06.540 yeah, I mean,

00:26:07.640 I understand

00:26:08.400 the sentences.

00:26:10.320 I get what

00:26:11.220 you're saying.

00:26:12.380 I understand

00:26:13.220 why it even

00:26:14.220 makes sense.

00:26:15.840 But are we

00:26:17.480 seeing any

00:26:17.960 examples of that?

00:26:19.900 What would be

00:26:20.680 an example,

00:26:21.760 either in the past

00:26:22.660 or even

00:26:23.420 potentially,

00:26:24.840 in which

00:26:25.400 the president's,

00:26:27.360 you know,

00:26:27.720 history of

00:26:28.660 statements that

00:26:29.440 the fact-checkers

00:26:30.280 don't like

00:26:30.960 or his history

00:26:32.100 of dealing with

00:26:32.700 other countries

00:26:33.400 or other people

00:26:34.160 makes any

00:26:35.420 difference?

00:26:37.000 What would be

00:26:37.600 an example of

00:26:38.380 that?

00:26:39.400 Because I just

00:26:40.120 don't see one.

00:26:41.320 Especially in a

00:26:42.220 crisis,

00:26:43.420 people get

00:26:44.180 pretty serious

00:26:46.180 in a crisis

00:26:46.840 and I don't

00:26:47.560 think that

00:26:48.140 people are going

00:26:49.160 to be stumbling

00:26:50.140 over Trump's

00:26:52.280 history of

00:26:52.780 hyperbole.

00:26:53.740 I just don't

00:26:54.700 see how it

00:26:55.280 becomes a real

00:26:55.960 problem.

00:26:56.360 Now,

00:26:59.700 will all of

00:27:00.380 this affect

00:27:01.060 the election

00:27:01.720 is what

00:27:02.160 you're asking

00:27:02.540 me.

00:27:03.760 You haven't

00:27:04.420 asked,

00:27:04.720 but I know

00:27:05.040 you're thinking

00:27:05.380 it.

00:27:06.100 And the

00:27:06.380 answer is

00:27:06.720 yes.

00:27:07.700 If you

00:27:08.220 asked me a

00:27:08.660 couple days

00:27:09.120 ago,

00:27:09.540 I would have

00:27:09.880 said,

00:27:10.200 I don't

00:27:10.840 know.

00:27:11.860 It might

00:27:12.180 affect the

00:27:12.620 election.

00:27:13.400 It might run

00:27:14.880 its course

00:27:15.340 before then.

00:27:16.400 I would say

00:27:17.060 at this point,

00:27:18.400 this is going

00:27:18.960 to be a

00:27:20.740 variable.

00:27:22.200 And this

00:27:23.060 is one of

00:27:23.380 the reasons

00:27:23.720 that I

00:27:24.640 always am so

00:27:25.340 careful to

00:27:25.880 say,

00:27:26.920 when I

00:27:27.380 say that

00:27:27.720 the president

00:27:28.220 is heading

00:27:28.700 for a

00:27:29.620 landslide

00:27:30.860 slaughter

00:27:31.480 victory,

00:27:32.400 I'm always

00:27:33.040 careful to

00:27:33.580 say,

00:27:34.380 if everything

00:27:35.120 stayed the

00:27:35.720 same,

00:27:37.320 and it

00:27:37.720 won't.

00:27:39.100 I always

00:27:39.700 throw in,

00:27:40.220 and it

00:27:40.500 won't.

00:27:40.960 The one

00:27:41.320 thing you

00:27:41.640 can be

00:27:41.940 sure of

00:27:42.520 is that

00:27:43.280 there will

00:27:43.500 be surprises

00:27:44.260 between now

00:27:45.000 and Election

00:27:45.380 Day.

00:27:46.000 Well,

00:27:46.180 this is a

00:27:46.540 pretty big

00:27:46.900 one.

00:27:47.800 I didn't

00:27:48.220 see this

00:27:48.540 one coming.

00:27:49.700 So here's

00:27:50.340 one of the

00:27:52.000 surprises.

00:27:53.480 Rasmussen is

00:27:54.280 reporting that

00:27:54.940 the president's

00:27:55.780 approval went

00:27:56.900 from 52

00:27:58.640 to 47

00:27:59.520 almost

00:28:00.060 overnight

00:28:00.600 directly after

00:28:02.160 his response

00:28:03.040 to the

00:28:03.400 coronavirus.

00:28:04.520 So I

00:28:05.100 believe the

00:28:05.560 public has

00:28:06.140 spoken,

00:28:07.200 and the

00:28:07.560 public just

00:28:08.120 said,

00:28:08.420 you know,

00:28:09.660 I don't

00:28:10.500 think you

00:28:10.820 hit a

00:28:11.080 home run

00:28:11.460 here on

00:28:12.680 this.

00:28:13.500 But the

00:28:14.060 bad thing

00:28:14.480 is,

00:28:15.280 all of the

00:28:16.940 reporting,

00:28:17.440 the information,

00:28:17.960 is just so

00:28:18.800 amazingly

00:28:19.620 horrible,

00:28:20.940 amazingly

00:28:21.840 horrible,

00:28:22.320 that it's

00:28:23.020 hard to

00:28:23.440 form a good

00:28:24.760 opinion here.

00:28:25.820 Let me

00:28:26.120 ask you

00:28:26.460 this.

00:28:27.080 If you

00:28:27.500 believe,

00:28:28.560 and I

00:28:28.880 tweeted this,

00:28:29.920 if you

00:28:30.280 believe that

00:28:30.780 the

00:28:30.960 administration

00:28:31.460 is not

00:28:32.280 doing enough

00:28:33.380 to be

00:28:35.600 ready for

00:28:36.260 or to

00:28:36.680 combat the

00:28:37.200 coronavirus,

00:28:38.660 what

00:28:38.980 specifically

00:28:39.880 have they

00:28:41.460 not done

00:28:42.340 that should

00:28:43.920 have been

00:28:44.180 done that

00:28:45.060 was also

00:28:45.500 possible?

00:28:46.020 watch how

00:28:49.160 many people

00:28:49.620 have really

00:28:50.320 firm opinions

00:28:51.200 that the

00:28:52.020 president has

00:28:52.880 not done

00:28:53.440 and is

00:28:54.020 not doing

00:28:54.440 the right

00:28:54.880 stuff,

00:28:55.620 but then

00:28:56.360 you say,

00:28:56.880 what would

00:28:57.180 be an

00:28:57.420 example of

00:28:57.960 the right

00:28:58.260 stuff?

00:28:59.380 What is it

00:29:00.440 that he

00:29:00.680 hasn't done

00:29:01.280 that he

00:29:02.680 should do?

00:29:04.060 And you're

00:29:04.800 going to

00:29:04.920 find people

00:29:05.940 don't really

00:29:06.540 know what

00:29:07.160 should be

00:29:07.540 done,

00:29:08.080 they don't

00:29:08.520 know what

00:29:08.840 he has

00:29:09.200 done,

00:29:09.600 and they

00:29:09.920 don't know

00:29:10.200 what he

00:29:10.420 should do,

00:29:11.060 but they're

00:29:11.680 pretty sure

00:29:12.120 they have

00:29:12.420 an opinion

00:29:12.760 on it.

00:29:14.260 So,

00:29:15.540 because it's

00:29:16.880 a bit

00:29:17.100 complicated

00:29:17.720 and confusing

00:29:18.620 situation,

00:29:19.580 and because

00:29:19.960 the pundits

00:29:20.500 will be

00:29:20.860 spinning this

00:29:21.500 in the

00:29:22.260 most anti-Trump

00:29:23.180 way,

00:29:23.780 I think

00:29:24.380 it's going

00:29:24.720 to leave

00:29:25.040 a mark.

00:29:26.420 Now,

00:29:26.940 the way

00:29:27.220 that this

00:29:27.620 could turn

00:29:28.060 positive

00:29:28.540 for the

00:29:28.920 president

00:29:29.260 is that

00:29:30.280 he said

00:29:30.740 something

00:29:31.260 pretty

00:29:32.440 outrageous,

00:29:33.860 and this

00:29:34.300 is hurting

00:29:35.000 him too.

00:29:35.980 He's kind

00:29:36.780 of acted

00:29:37.220 like we're

00:29:37.800 going to

00:29:38.100 be fine,

00:29:39.740 or that

00:29:40.440 there's a

00:29:40.820 good chance

00:29:41.440 that we'll

00:29:41.820 be fine.

00:29:42.760 Whereas the

00:29:43.600 experts are

00:29:44.220 saying,

00:29:44.580 you know,

00:29:45.500 there's not

00:29:46.100 even a

00:29:46.620 chance we're

00:29:47.520 going to

00:29:47.680 be fine.

00:29:48.900 The experts

00:29:49.800 are pretty

00:29:50.480 clear there's

00:29:52.120 sort of

00:29:52.600 nothing you

00:29:53.060 can do.

00:29:54.660 This virus

00:29:55.980 is coming

00:29:56.500 our way.

00:29:57.220 We're just

00:29:57.880 going to get

00:29:58.360 it.

00:29:58.700 That's all

00:29:59.080 there is

00:29:59.380 to it.

00:30:00.340 Now,

00:30:01.240 again,

00:30:01.820 what is it

00:30:02.280 the president

00:30:02.780 should have

00:30:03.300 done that

00:30:04.860 he hasn't

00:30:05.240 done?

00:30:06.640 Do we

00:30:07.380 not have

00:30:08.120 enough money

00:30:08.740 for something?

00:30:09.540 I've seen

00:30:10.020 no report.

00:30:11.320 Have you

00:30:11.700 seen any

00:30:12.200 report that

00:30:13.100 something

00:30:13.440 stopped or

00:30:14.860 couldn't be

00:30:15.380 done because

00:30:15.980 we didn't

00:30:16.340 have funding?

00:30:17.620 I'm not

00:30:18.000 aware of

00:30:18.340 any reporting

00:30:18.880 like that.

00:30:20.040 So,

00:30:20.500 money-wise,

00:30:21.200 no.

00:30:21.800 Are you

00:30:22.220 aware of

00:30:22.680 anybody who

00:30:23.360 hasn't done

00:30:25.480 the thing

00:30:25.880 they were

00:30:26.160 supposed to

00:30:26.580 do?

00:30:28.420 Maybe.

00:30:29.100 I don't

00:30:29.640 know of

00:30:29.980 anybody.

00:30:32.560 Now,

00:30:33.320 so that's

00:30:34.960 the unknown.

00:30:35.480 The other

00:30:35.740 big unknown

00:30:36.240 is the

00:30:36.860 death rate.

00:30:39.580 Now,

00:30:40.820 I talk

00:30:41.600 all the

00:30:41.900 time about

00:30:42.420 the two

00:30:43.660 movies on

00:30:44.180 one screen,

00:30:44.940 and we've

00:30:45.300 got another

00:30:45.920 just perfect

00:30:46.680 example of

00:30:47.440 it.

00:30:48.120 Whenever you

00:30:48.760 have complicated

00:30:50.180 situations,

00:30:51.140 it allows

00:30:51.500 people to

00:30:52.060 interpret them

00:30:52.740 as entirely

00:30:53.320 different movies.

00:30:55.280 But the

00:30:56.400 amazing thing

00:30:57.180 is when

00:30:58.300 people look

00:30:58.820 at the

00:30:59.120 same fact,

00:31:00.620 it's on

00:31:01.100 video,

00:31:01.860 it's right

00:31:02.260 there,

00:31:02.540 you can

00:31:02.760 look at

00:31:03.100 it,

00:31:03.640 and they

00:31:04.080 still come

00:31:04.500 away with

00:31:04.860 different ideas

00:31:05.560 about that

00:31:06.180 one fact

00:31:06.780 that we

00:31:07.120 can both

00:31:07.500 look at

00:31:08.080 and replay,

00:31:09.300 it's on

00:31:09.580 video,

00:31:10.060 you can

00:31:10.300 see it as

00:31:10.600 much as

00:31:10.920 you want,

00:31:12.040 and still

00:31:12.560 have a

00:31:12.860 different opinion

00:31:13.400 of what

00:31:13.760 that fact

00:31:14.240 was.

00:31:14.980 And that

00:31:15.500 happened again

00:31:16.080 on CNN.

00:31:17.440 So you

00:31:18.020 probably have

00:31:18.500 seen by

00:31:18.900 now the

00:31:19.280 clip of

00:31:19.980 Dr. Gupta

00:31:22.380 asking a

00:31:23.780 question at

00:31:24.220 the press

00:31:24.580 conference.

00:31:26.060 And Dr.

00:31:27.800 Gupta's

00:31:28.360 question was

00:31:29.120 about the

00:31:29.700 relative danger

00:31:31.620 and lethality,

00:31:33.080 the death

00:31:33.420 rate of the

00:31:34.340 coronavirus,

00:31:35.560 versus the 0.55

00:31:36.480 regular

00:31:36.820 flu.

00:31:37.840 So here's

00:31:38.720 what Gupta

00:31:39.520 said,

00:31:40.000 and I'm

00:31:40.220 going to

00:31:40.440 paraphrase a

00:31:41.100 little bit

00:31:41.460 to tell the

00:31:42.280 story.

00:31:43.080 So Gupta

00:31:43.560 says that

00:31:44.400 the regular

00:31:45.220 flus have

00:31:46.860 a mortality

00:31:47.880 rate of

00:31:48.580 0.1,

00:31:49.640 so a

00:31:50.120 tenth of

00:31:50.560 one percent,

00:31:52.180 whereas,

00:31:53.020 and then he

00:31:53.440 goes on to

00:31:53.940 say that the

00:31:54.480 coronavirus has

00:31:56.000 something like

00:31:56.540 a two to

00:31:57.040 three percent,

00:31:58.460 which could

00:31:58.920 be, you

00:31:59.580 know,

00:31:59.780 20,

00:32:00.320 25 times

00:32:01.580 worse than

00:32:04.360 a regular

00:32:04.840 flu.

00:32:06.120 President

00:32:06.620 Trump says

00:32:07.420 it's higher

00:32:10.840 than that.

00:32:12.960 So that's

00:32:13.640 what President

00:32:14.140 Trump said.

00:32:14.920 He said,

00:32:15.400 it's higher.

00:32:16.960 Now,

00:32:18.420 Gupta

00:32:18.720 goes and

00:32:19.780 talks to,

00:32:20.260 I think it was

00:32:20.560 Anderson

00:32:20.860 Cooper,

00:32:22.160 after,

00:32:22.920 and he's

00:32:23.220 talking about

00:32:23.960 his question

00:32:24.900 and the

00:32:25.160 answer.

00:32:26.000 And this

00:32:26.280 is what

00:32:26.680 Gupta

00:32:27.220 says happened.

00:32:28.940 And remember,

00:32:29.700 this is on

00:32:30.120 video.

00:32:31.100 You can go

00:32:31.620 watch it

00:32:31.960 yourself.

00:32:32.320 what Gupta

00:32:33.620 says happened

00:32:34.380 is that the

00:32:35.540 president said

00:32:36.440 on live TV

00:32:37.320 during that

00:32:38.000 press conference

00:32:38.720 that the

00:32:39.780 regular flu

00:32:40.700 had a higher

00:32:42.220 death rate

00:32:43.520 than the

00:32:44.680 coronavirus,

00:32:45.100 which of course

00:32:46.080 is not only

00:32:47.000 wrong,

00:32:47.560 it's wrong

00:32:48.020 by a factor

00:32:48.960 of 25.

00:32:50.340 It would be

00:32:50.860 exactly upside

00:32:51.740 down.

00:32:52.840 So Gupta

00:32:53.340 and CNN

00:32:53.920 are talking

00:32:54.460 about how

00:32:54.840 dumb the

00:32:55.220 president is,

00:32:56.320 that this

00:32:56.940 most critical

00:32:57.740 fact about

00:32:58.400 the coronavirus

00:32:58.960 that he

00:33:00.200 has upside

00:33:00.760 down,

00:33:01.300 and he

00:33:01.640 did it

00:33:02.080 during a

00:33:02.980 press conference

00:33:03.620 about the

00:33:04.320 coronavirus.

00:33:05.880 At the

00:33:06.400 very time

00:33:06.900 you should

00:33:07.240 be the

00:33:07.520 best informed,

00:33:09.220 he was

00:33:09.720 completely

00:33:10.560 uninformed

00:33:11.300 backwards.

00:33:13.460 Except,

00:33:14.800 that didn't

00:33:15.940 happen.

00:33:17.740 Go watch

00:33:18.560 the video.

00:33:20.100 The entire

00:33:20.640 report about

00:33:21.780 the president

00:33:22.480 getting those

00:33:23.160 two figures

00:33:24.260 backwards

00:33:24.720 didn't

00:33:26.820 happen.

00:33:27.740 But Gupta

00:33:28.480 goes on

00:33:28.920 camera and

00:33:29.480 he talks

00:33:29.840 about it

00:33:30.200 like it

00:33:30.760 just

00:33:30.960 happened,

00:33:31.360 like you

00:33:31.640 just

00:33:31.820 watched it.

00:33:32.700 So I

00:33:33.080 had to go

00:33:33.380 back and

00:33:33.740 watch it.

00:33:35.060 What the

00:33:35.720 hell am I

00:33:36.220 seeing that's

00:33:37.820 not even

00:33:38.220 close to

00:33:38.980 whatever Gupta

00:33:39.620 just saw?

00:33:40.360 I mean,

00:33:40.560 he was there

00:33:41.100 and I'm

00:33:41.980 watching the

00:33:42.460 video of

00:33:43.080 the exact

00:33:43.600 exchange and

00:33:44.880 here's how

00:33:45.360 I interpreted

00:33:46.380 it.

00:33:48.500 Gupta

00:33:49.020 said the

00:33:49.600 regular flu

00:33:51.140 has a

00:33:51.560 death rate

00:33:51.940 of 0.1.

00:33:53.820 And then

00:33:54.200 he continues

00:33:54.780 talking and

00:33:55.820 he says

00:33:56.260 coronavirus

00:33:57.060 2-3%.

00:33:58.360 The president

00:33:59.700 says it's

00:34:03.680 higher than

00:34:04.100 that.

00:34:05.920 I interpreted

00:34:07.060 it to say

00:34:08.260 that the

00:34:08.640 president was

00:34:09.360 saying that

00:34:09.880 the regular

00:34:10.460 flu is

00:34:11.720 worse than

00:34:12.440 what Gupta

00:34:14.040 is saying.

00:34:14.940 Now I don't

00:34:15.260 think it is,

00:34:16.820 but he's

00:34:17.260 saying it's

00:34:17.660 worse than

00:34:18.500 you're saying.

00:34:19.640 Gupta

00:34:19.980 interpreted that

00:34:20.960 as saying that

00:34:22.160 a regular flu

00:34:22.960 is worse than

00:34:24.140 coronavirus,

00:34:24.680 coronavirus,

00:34:25.360 which Trump

00:34:26.660 didn't say.

00:34:28.520 That's just

00:34:29.180 something that

00:34:29.840 Gupta

00:34:30.080 interpreted.

00:34:31.380 Now I

00:34:31.740 watched it

00:34:32.220 and I

00:34:32.420 thought,

00:34:33.120 no,

00:34:33.480 I'm

00:34:33.620 watching the

00:34:34.080 same words

00:34:34.580 at the

00:34:34.880 same time.

00:34:36.260 That's not

00:34:36.980 how I

00:34:37.300 interpret it.

00:34:38.100 And the

00:34:38.480 reason I

00:34:38.940 don't

00:34:39.140 interpret it

00:34:39.720 that way

00:34:40.060 is that

00:34:40.360 it would

00:34:40.560 be crazy.

00:34:41.080 now if

00:34:43.220 Trump said

00:34:44.120 that the

00:34:44.460 regular

00:34:44.780 flu is

00:34:45.440 worse than

00:34:46.500 people said,

00:34:47.980 he's right

00:34:48.460 or he's

00:34:48.820 wrong,

00:34:49.580 but it's

00:34:50.420 sort of

00:34:50.780 immaterial.

00:34:51.900 It's not

00:34:52.480 terribly

00:34:53.040 important to

00:34:53.640 the story,

00:34:54.460 but the

00:34:54.980 way CNN

00:34:55.540 interpreted it

00:34:56.520 was that

00:34:57.520 he had

00:34:57.800 reversed

00:34:58.280 something

00:34:59.480 that's

00:34:59.860 0.1

00:35:00.460 with something

00:35:00.980 that's

00:35:01.320 2 to 3,

00:35:02.580 25 times

00:35:03.460 difference,

00:35:04.360 and that's

00:35:04.740 a gigantic

00:35:05.640 difference.

00:35:07.220 Somebody in

00:35:07.820 the comments,

00:35:08.360 somebody says,

00:35:09.100 I saw that

00:35:09.680 and I was

00:35:10.040 confused.

00:35:10.560 Here's what

00:35:11.480 CNN should

00:35:12.180 have done.

00:35:13.180 They should

00:35:13.500 have said,

00:35:14.080 his answer

00:35:14.620 was ambiguous,

00:35:15.540 we better

00:35:15.820 find out

00:35:16.220 what he

00:35:16.480 meant.

00:35:17.520 That would

00:35:17.900 have been

00:35:18.120 honest.

00:35:19.680 Because I

00:35:20.880 think they

00:35:21.460 were sort

00:35:21.860 of expecting

00:35:23.900 Trump to

00:35:25.340 be so

00:35:25.780 uninformed

00:35:26.420 that they

00:35:27.620 leapt to

00:35:28.480 that conclusion,

00:35:30.200 and if

00:35:31.900 that's true,

00:35:33.120 well, I

00:35:33.580 would be

00:35:33.840 amazed.

00:35:35.620 Now it's

00:35:36.120 also reported,

00:35:37.480 and this

00:35:37.860 part is just

00:35:38.400 head shaking,

00:35:39.380 but maybe

00:35:40.060 I'm just

00:35:40.460 uninformed,

00:35:41.320 so fill

00:35:41.680 in the

00:35:41.940 blanks

00:35:42.260 for me

00:35:42.540 here.

00:35:43.200 It's

00:35:43.500 reported

00:35:43.900 also on

00:35:44.440 CNN that

00:35:45.500 the president

00:35:46.040 was not

00:35:46.820 aware that

00:35:48.360 the regular

00:35:49.140 flu, just

00:35:50.420 the normal

00:35:51.020 annual flu

00:35:51.960 in its

00:35:53.000 different forms,

00:35:54.420 also kills

00:35:55.600 tons of

00:35:56.320 people.

00:35:58.000 And CNN

00:35:58.440 is reporting

00:35:59.160 that he

00:35:59.600 learned that

00:36:00.300 just before

00:36:01.660 the press

00:36:02.120 conference from

00:36:03.120 some expert

00:36:04.980 who told him

00:36:05.480 that.

00:36:05.700 And I'm

00:36:06.540 thinking to

00:36:06.980 myself,

00:36:08.200 okay,

00:36:09.640 where's the

00:36:10.780 evidence of

00:36:11.340 that?

00:36:12.080 That's a

00:36:12.600 pretty big

00:36:13.040 claim.

00:36:13.960 Saying that

00:36:14.480 the president

00:36:14.960 only just

00:36:15.840 learned before

00:36:16.900 his press

00:36:17.500 conference on

00:36:18.140 the coronavirus

00:36:18.680 that he

00:36:19.840 had just

00:36:20.340 learned minutes

00:36:21.500 before that

00:36:22.260 that the

00:36:23.260 regular virus

00:36:24.180 kills lots

00:36:25.140 of people?

00:36:25.520 you'd

00:36:29.020 better show

00:36:29.460 me the

00:36:29.820 quote,

00:36:31.140 you'd

00:36:31.380 better show

00:36:31.820 me more

00:36:32.300 than one

00:36:32.900 named

00:36:33.960 source,

00:36:35.600 or I'm

00:36:36.580 going to

00:36:36.800 say that

00:36:37.240 didn't

00:36:37.520 happen.

00:36:38.660 Because it's

00:36:39.400 a little bit

00:36:39.860 mind-ready,

00:36:40.800 isn't it?

00:36:41.860 Do you

00:36:42.200 exactly know

00:36:42.920 what he was

00:36:43.460 thinking?

00:36:44.100 Here's what I

00:36:44.860 do think

00:36:45.320 is likely.

00:36:46.660 I do think

00:36:47.460 it is likely

00:36:48.000 that before

00:36:48.840 he went

00:36:49.200 on, he

00:36:50.160 was being

00:36:50.560 updated about

00:36:51.260 how bad

00:36:52.060 the regular

00:36:52.860 flu is.

00:36:54.500 And I

00:36:55.040 think most

00:36:55.520 of us,

00:36:56.480 every time

00:36:56.920 we find

00:36:57.360 that, even

00:36:58.240 though we

00:36:58.560 all know

00:36:58.900 that lots

00:36:59.280 of people

00:36:59.600 die from

00:37:00.000 the regular

00:37:00.420 flu, when

00:37:01.600 you hear

00:37:01.900 the actual

00:37:02.340 numbers, it's

00:37:04.080 kind of shocking,

00:37:05.140 even if you

00:37:05.660 know the

00:37:06.080 general idea

00:37:06.760 that the

00:37:07.140 regular flu

00:37:07.660 kills a lot

00:37:08.220 of people.

00:37:09.260 I believe

00:37:10.080 that he was

00:37:10.540 reminded of

00:37:11.180 those numbers

00:37:11.720 before he

00:37:12.300 talked, and

00:37:13.680 when Gupta

00:37:14.220 said that

00:37:15.020 the regular

00:37:16.240 flu kills

00:37:17.540 0.1,

00:37:18.780 the president

00:37:19.320 having just

00:37:20.640 been briefed

00:37:21.440 that the

00:37:21.940 regular flu

00:37:22.660 is bad

00:37:23.440 stuff,

00:37:23.880 may have

00:37:25.960 applied his

00:37:26.660 usual

00:37:26.980 hyperbole

00:37:27.660 and said

00:37:28.160 it's even

00:37:28.740 worse than

00:37:29.140 that.

00:37:29.820 So in

00:37:30.040 other words,

00:37:31.960 it probably

00:37:32.720 didn't happen

00:37:33.540 the way CNN

00:37:34.160 reported it.

00:37:35.860 So don't

00:37:36.620 trust anything

00:37:37.240 the news

00:37:37.800 tells you

00:37:38.260 about any

00:37:38.720 of this

00:37:38.960 stuff.

00:37:39.300 Now, one

00:37:39.720 of the

00:37:39.860 questions I

00:37:40.340 had was,

00:37:41.740 how do you

00:37:42.560 calculate the

00:37:44.220 death rate of

00:37:44.960 a virus if

00:37:45.980 you don't

00:37:46.280 have the

00:37:46.660 denominator?

00:37:48.320 In other

00:37:48.700 words, if

00:37:49.900 you're doing

00:37:50.220 a ratio of

00:37:51.040 dead people

00:37:51.920 to people

00:37:53.040 who have

00:37:53.320 the virus

00:37:53.780 but did

00:37:54.220 not die,

00:37:55.320 well, you

00:37:55.620 have the

00:37:55.900 numerator

00:37:56.340 because when

00:37:56.860 people die,

00:37:58.700 you were a

00:37:59.360 little bit

00:37:59.660 better at

00:38:00.020 counting that

00:38:00.580 because that's

00:38:00.980 a discrete

00:38:01.700 event and

00:38:02.440 you can

00:38:02.780 usually tell

00:38:04.040 if it was

00:38:04.440 the coronavirus

00:38:05.000 or not.

00:38:06.560 So the

00:38:06.880 numerator,

00:38:08.000 dead people,

00:38:08.740 we probably

00:38:09.340 know that.

00:38:10.720 But there

00:38:11.120 is a strong

00:38:11.720 suggestion that

00:38:12.760 there might

00:38:13.100 be a lot

00:38:13.520 of asymptomatic

00:38:14.520 people,

00:38:15.820 people who

00:38:16.280 don't have

00:38:16.580 any symptoms

00:38:17.260 who might

00:38:18.420 have their

00:38:19.780 carriers.

00:38:20.480 So until

00:38:22.220 you know

00:38:22.620 that, do

00:38:24.320 you know

00:38:24.560 anything?

00:38:25.860 Now, people

00:38:27.880 send me

00:38:28.320 papers on

00:38:29.080 Twitter that

00:38:31.100 are brainy

00:38:32.820 papers from

00:38:33.560 PhDs that

00:38:34.580 suggest their

00:38:35.420 statistical ways

00:38:37.240 that they can

00:38:37.800 determine this.

00:38:39.000 For example,

00:38:40.080 in China,

00:38:41.140 they can take

00:38:42.400 a group of

00:38:43.100 several hundred

00:38:44.080 people and

00:38:44.860 they can just

00:38:45.280 test them.

00:38:46.700 And then they

00:38:47.060 can find out

00:38:47.780 how many of

00:38:48.620 them had it

00:38:49.720 that would

00:38:50.860 not have

00:38:51.200 been

00:38:51.340 discovered.

00:38:53.320 But really,

00:38:55.600 a few hundred

00:38:56.420 people that

00:38:57.200 got tested

00:38:58.180 in China,

00:38:59.280 number one,

00:39:00.040 do you believe

00:39:00.660 their data?

00:39:01.760 No, you

00:39:02.240 shouldn't.

00:39:02.580 You shouldn't

00:39:02.960 believe any

00:39:03.400 data that

00:39:03.900 comes out of

00:39:04.340 China for

00:39:05.400 that or

00:39:05.820 really anything

00:39:06.360 else.

00:39:08.540 And secondly,

00:39:09.460 what about

00:39:10.040 the people who

00:39:10.660 have mild

00:39:11.160 symptoms who

00:39:11.860 are hiding?

00:39:13.180 If you were

00:39:13.920 Chinese and

00:39:15.340 you had a

00:39:15.780 sniffle,

00:39:17.320 would you

00:39:17.760 tell anybody?

00:39:19.720 I don't

00:39:20.020 think so.

00:39:20.820 I think

00:39:21.120 you would

00:39:21.360 just tell

00:39:21.680 your family,

00:39:22.320 hey,

00:39:23.420 just shove 0.76

00:39:24.520 the food

00:39:24.920 under the

00:39:25.340 door for

00:39:25.760 a couple

00:39:26.060 of weeks.

00:39:26.680 I'm going

00:39:27.160 to be

00:39:27.320 hiding in

00:39:27.760 this room

00:39:28.120 over here.

00:39:29.100 Don't tell

00:39:29.560 anybody I'm

00:39:30.080 here.

00:39:30.900 I can't

00:39:31.620 believe for

00:39:31.980 a second

00:39:32.440 that we

00:39:33.820 can get

00:39:34.240 the denominator

00:39:35.080 right.

00:39:35.740 So,

00:39:36.080 here's a

00:39:36.460 possibility.

00:39:38.520 And one I

00:39:39.100 think that

00:39:39.540 Trump

00:39:39.920 unwisely

00:39:42.860 suggested is

00:39:43.960 possible,

00:39:44.860 which is that

00:39:45.940 we might be

00:39:46.880 fine.

00:39:47.220 in other

00:39:49.180 words,

00:39:49.680 it might

00:39:50.020 not be

00:39:50.400 worse than

00:39:50.840 a regular

00:39:51.260 flu when

00:39:52.140 all is

00:39:52.840 said and

00:39:53.180 done,

00:39:53.900 for a few

00:39:54.600 reasons.

00:39:55.260 One is we

00:39:56.060 may be

00:39:56.620 responding to

00:39:58.340 this far

00:39:59.540 more aggressively

00:40:00.240 than regular

00:40:00.920 flus.

00:40:01.360 That could 0.68

00:40:01.620 make a

00:40:01.900 difference,

00:40:02.400 just in

00:40:02.840 survival

00:40:03.240 rates.

00:40:04.400 But it's

00:40:04.720 also possible

00:40:05.420 that this

00:40:05.900 is the

00:40:06.440 most viral

00:40:09.440 flu we've

00:40:10.140 ever had.

00:40:11.880 Just see if

00:40:12.460 you can follow

00:40:12.920 along on this.

00:40:13.400 virus, we

00:40:14.260 haven't ruled

00:40:14.940 out the

00:40:15.320 possibility that

00:40:16.920 it's the

00:40:17.280 most viral

00:40:18.280 virus we've

00:40:19.900 ever had,

00:40:20.520 just people

00:40:21.040 can get it

00:40:21.520 really easily,

00:40:22.300 at the same

00:40:23.280 time that

00:40:24.800 maybe most

00:40:25.400 of the people

00:40:25.780 who get it

00:40:26.200 don't have

00:40:26.720 much in the

00:40:27.180 way of

00:40:27.400 symptoms,

00:40:28.160 or even

00:40:28.840 notice it.

00:40:29.860 So, we

00:40:32.180 really don't

00:40:32.620 know the

00:40:32.960 denominator.

00:40:33.680 We've got

00:40:33.960 smart people

00:40:34.520 guessing that

00:40:35.100 it's really

00:40:35.500 high and

00:40:36.140 scary.

00:40:36.840 I think we

00:40:37.380 should act

00:40:38.040 as though it's

00:40:38.540 big and

00:40:38.880 high and

00:40:39.220 scary.

00:40:39.820 That's the

00:40:40.180 smart thing

00:40:40.620 to do.

00:40:41.380 You don't

00:40:41.700 want to err in

00:40:42.360 the wrong

00:40:42.620 direction.

00:40:43.400 But,

00:40:44.120 Trump has

00:40:45.380 opened up

00:40:45.860 the possibility

00:40:46.600 that maybe

00:40:48.760 in the end

00:40:50.000 this won't

00:40:50.720 be worse

00:40:52.020 in terms of

00:40:52.720 death than

00:40:53.400 the regular

00:40:53.800 flu.

00:40:54.300 Still, it

00:40:54.680 would be

00:40:54.820 terrible.

00:40:56.480 All right.

00:41:00.740 What else

00:41:01.380 we've got

00:41:01.660 going on

00:41:02.060 here?

00:41:04.500 It's kind

00:41:05.120 of a

00:41:05.380 frustrating

00:41:05.800 crisis because

00:41:06.580 there's not

00:41:06.920 much you

00:41:07.240 can do,

00:41:07.700 right?

00:41:08.260 You can

00:41:08.660 wash your

00:41:09.100 hands, but

00:41:09.680 really?

00:41:11.220 You can

00:41:11.800 put on a

00:41:12.620 mask, but

00:41:14.280 apparently there's

00:41:14.900 a disagreement

00:41:15.460 about whether

00:41:16.000 that makes

00:41:16.420 any difference

00:41:16.980 or makes

00:41:17.380 things worse.

00:41:18.720 Who knows?

00:41:20.520 So, here's

00:41:21.260 what Trump

00:41:21.880 said about

00:41:22.360 this quote.

00:41:24.140 It's going

00:41:24.600 to disappear.

00:41:25.560 One day,

00:41:26.140 it's like a

00:41:26.600 miracle.

00:41:27.140 It will

00:41:27.420 disappear,

00:41:28.700 Trump said

00:41:29.300 at the White

00:41:29.720 House Thursday.

00:41:30.360 He also

00:41:33.940 warned that

00:41:34.400 things could

00:41:35.160 get worse

00:41:35.960 before it

00:41:36.420 gets better,

00:41:37.480 but then he

00:41:38.300 added it

00:41:38.780 could maybe

00:41:39.320 go away. 0.82

00:41:40.320 We'll see

00:41:40.880 what happens.

00:41:42.020 Nobody

00:41:42.280 really knows.

00:41:43.900 Now, in

00:41:45.460 terms of

00:41:46.020 technical

00:41:47.540 accuracy,

00:41:49.000 I think he's

00:41:49.720 accurate.

00:41:50.740 It is

00:41:51.260 accurate to

00:41:51.940 say that

00:41:52.380 there are

00:41:52.640 some unknowns

00:41:53.360 here, and

00:41:54.320 we might be

00:41:54.800 surprised.

00:41:56.280 We've been

00:41:56.940 surprised lots

00:41:58.080 of times by

00:41:59.100 things we

00:41:59.560 thought would

00:42:00.000 be worse

00:42:00.460 than they

00:42:00.820 were.

00:42:01.880 It's fairly

00:42:02.840 common.

00:42:03.580 We thought

00:42:04.020 that the

00:42:04.560 oil spill

00:42:05.740 in the Gulf

00:42:06.380 would be

00:42:06.900 way worse

00:42:07.380 than it

00:42:07.620 was.

00:42:08.660 We thought

00:42:09.280 that the

00:42:09.640 year 2000

00:42:10.360 bug would

00:42:11.020 be way

00:42:11.900 worse than

00:42:13.040 it was.

00:42:13.820 We thought

00:42:14.400 climate change,

00:42:15.360 as bad as

00:42:15.860 people think

00:42:16.380 it will be,

00:42:18.200 for years

00:42:19.180 people have

00:42:19.800 been suggesting

00:42:20.660 it would be

00:42:21.220 way worse.

00:42:22.880 So the

00:42:23.140 president,

00:42:24.180 if you're

00:42:25.300 a certain

00:42:25.800 age,

00:42:26.860 and you've

00:42:27.340 seen how

00:42:27.740 many times

00:42:28.380 things were

00:42:29.000 predicted to

00:42:29.660 be a

00:42:29.900 crisis,

00:42:31.040 and then

00:42:31.420 in the

00:42:31.680 end,

00:42:32.680 in hindsight,

00:42:33.820 you looked

00:42:34.100 at it and

00:42:34.380 you said,

00:42:34.700 I guess we

00:42:35.480 did pretty

00:42:35.820 good on

00:42:36.140 that.

00:42:36.940 We got

00:42:37.380 on that

00:42:37.740 early,

00:42:38.140 as somebody

00:42:38.460 said in

00:42:38.860 the comments.

00:42:39.860 I guess we

00:42:40.240 did pretty

00:42:40.560 good.

00:42:41.560 So I

00:42:42.200 don't think

00:42:42.740 the president

00:42:43.300 is wrong

00:42:44.260 that we

00:42:45.280 could find

00:42:45.900 out that

00:42:46.560 we're better

00:42:47.060 at handling

00:42:47.580 this than

00:42:49.020 current

00:42:49.540 evidence would

00:42:50.620 suggest.

00:42:51.680 But I

00:42:52.800 do think he

00:42:53.880 messaged it

00:42:54.980 wrong.

00:42:56.180 The right

00:42:56.840 sweet spot

00:42:57.900 would have

00:42:58.300 been a

00:42:58.660 little less

00:42:59.280 optimism

00:42:59.840 because it

00:43:00.420 makes him

00:43:01.180 look a

00:43:01.540 little out

00:43:02.000 of it.

00:43:03.200 I think it

00:43:03.740 would have

00:43:03.920 been cleaner

00:43:04.500 and on

00:43:04.980 message to

00:43:05.580 say,

00:43:06.440 the experts

00:43:07.120 say it's

00:43:07.660 coming,

00:43:09.040 but we're

00:43:10.300 America,

00:43:11.460 we're going to

00:43:12.200 get through

00:43:12.560 this,

00:43:13.840 and we might

00:43:15.140 get lucky,

00:43:16.080 but you

00:43:16.440 shouldn't plan

00:43:16.980 on it.

00:43:17.720 You should

00:43:18.060 plan for it

00:43:21.020 to be a big

00:43:21.920 event, and you

00:43:22.740 should prepare for it,

00:43:23.640 and we're going to

00:43:24.120 get through this,

00:43:24.760 we are

00:43:25.620 America, and

00:43:27.800 we'll do

00:43:28.100 better than

00:43:28.480 other countries,

00:43:29.480 and we'll help

00:43:30.200 other countries

00:43:30.760 if we can.

00:43:31.520 That's the sort

00:43:32.100 of message I

00:43:32.620 want to hear,

00:43:33.960 but if I hear

00:43:35.000 the president

00:43:35.980 saying,

00:43:36.640 one day you

00:43:37.660 might wake up

00:43:38.260 and it's a

00:43:38.640 miracle, it

00:43:39.200 will disappear,

00:43:40.140 then I think,

00:43:41.000 that's not

00:43:43.240 really the

00:43:44.060 leader messaging

00:43:45.740 I want to

00:43:46.500 hear, so he

00:43:48.000 needs to fix

00:43:48.620 that, I

00:43:50.240 think.

00:43:54.840 Let's see,

00:43:56.100 I understand

00:43:56.940 that we still

00:43:57.560 have travel

00:43:58.280 coming in from

00:43:58.980 Italy, and

00:43:59.600 they have some

00:43:59.940 cases there.

00:44:01.320 I'd love to

00:44:02.060 know what kind

00:44:02.740 of thinking

00:44:03.280 goes into

00:44:04.080 when you

00:44:04.640 close an

00:44:05.100 airport.

00:44:06.640 I get that

00:44:07.660 we're trying to

00:44:08.180 protect the

00:44:08.680 economies and

00:44:09.820 stuff, but

00:44:12.100 I don't know,

00:44:13.500 Italy?

00:44:14.540 Maybe you

00:44:15.160 want to think

00:44:15.560 about closing

00:44:16.060 stuff down?

00:44:17.700 The Swiss

00:44:18.440 government has

00:44:19.120 banned all 0.99

00:44:19.720 large-scale

00:44:20.360 events, more

00:44:21.440 than 1,000

00:44:22.020 people.

00:44:23.060 How soon

00:44:23.700 before we

00:44:24.200 do that?

00:44:25.600 I think we're

00:44:26.660 going to see

00:44:27.040 our schools

00:44:27.700 close and

00:44:30.180 large events

00:44:31.020 all canceled,

00:44:32.820 is my guess.

00:44:33.920 I would be

00:44:34.560 surprised if

00:44:36.160 this spring we

00:44:37.180 see a full

00:44:38.840 slate of

00:44:40.080 stadium sports

00:44:40.940 and that sort

00:44:41.440 of thing.

00:44:44.000 All right.

00:44:48.020 You know,

00:44:48.800 one of the

00:44:49.360 weirdest parts

00:44:50.760 of this

00:44:51.220 whole coronavirus

00:44:52.700 story is that

00:44:53.980 there are

00:44:55.420 four members

00:44:56.100 of the

00:44:56.520 Iran-ruling 0.51

00:44:58.280 regime who

00:44:59.840 have confirmed

00:45:00.900 coronavirus

00:45:02.280 cases.

00:45:03.800 And of course,

00:45:04.380 the Ayatollahs

00:45:05.380 up there in

00:45:05.960 age, 80

00:45:07.400 whatever, and

00:45:09.040 that's the

00:45:09.540 dangerous zone.

00:45:10.780 So what are

00:45:11.260 the odds that

00:45:12.140 the Ayatollah

00:45:12.960 has not been

00:45:14.520 infected by now?

00:45:15.480 If four

00:45:16.700 members of

00:45:17.200 the regime

00:45:17.600 who have

00:45:18.080 met with

00:45:18.500 him recently

00:45:19.060 and met

00:45:20.400 with people

00:45:20.820 who have

00:45:21.020 met with

00:45:21.320 him, what

00:45:22.400 are the

00:45:22.600 odds?

00:45:24.280 I would say

00:45:24.920 the odds are

00:45:25.400 pretty good

00:45:26.120 that the

00:45:27.080 Ayatollahs got 0.98

00:45:27.860 this already,

00:45:28.540 or will get

00:45:29.200 it.

00:45:30.520 What are the

00:45:31.020 odds that he

00:45:31.560 would die?

00:45:33.500 Well, he's

00:45:33.900 that age.

00:45:35.520 He would have

00:45:36.260 the best

00:45:36.680 health care,

00:45:37.560 but he's

00:45:38.180 that age.

00:45:39.320 So there's

00:45:39.660 something like

00:45:40.220 somebody calculated

00:45:42.120 9%, I think

00:45:43.440 Ken calculated

00:45:44.400 this, a 9%

00:45:46.260 chance that

00:45:47.760 there will be

00:45:48.140 regime change

00:45:49.160 in Iran

00:45:50.960 just because

00:45:51.580 of the

00:45:51.780 virus.

00:45:54.040 You wouldn't

00:45:54.820 bet on that,

00:45:55.600 but I think

00:45:56.440 there's a

00:45:57.020 solid sub

00:45:58.120 10% chance

00:45:59.420 that it could

00:46:00.320 be a regime

00:46:01.280 change event.

00:46:05.360 Here's some

00:46:06.100 good news.

00:46:06.620 The GOP

00:46:09.900 minority

00:46:11.760 leader McCarthy

00:46:12.920 has introduced

00:46:14.520 some climate

00:46:15.420 change, I

00:46:17.140 guess you'd

00:46:17.540 call it a

00:46:18.040 Republican

00:46:18.600 response to

00:46:19.500 climate change.

00:46:21.020 And what's

00:46:21.400 different about

00:46:21.900 it is that

00:46:22.380 it acknowledges

00:46:23.260 CO2 as a

00:46:25.000 problem and

00:46:25.760 warming as a

00:46:26.480 problem, but

00:46:27.000 it promotes

00:46:27.880 gas, natural

00:46:30.780 gas and

00:46:31.760 nuclear as

00:46:33.860 two of the

00:46:34.280 biggest pillars.

00:46:36.000 And I think

00:46:36.580 that's what

00:46:36.960 we've been

00:46:37.240 waiting for

00:46:37.760 because the

00:46:39.100 president had

00:46:39.880 been basically

00:46:41.200 unarmed when

00:46:43.680 it came to

00:46:44.160 talking about

00:46:44.900 climate change.

00:46:47.000 But this

00:46:47.720 McCarthy thing

00:46:48.540 gives him a

00:46:50.540 path that is

00:46:51.460 completely

00:46:52.180 compatible with

00:46:54.100 all past

00:46:54.700 statements.

00:46:55.820 Because whether

00:46:56.660 you believe that

00:46:57.340 climate change is

00:46:58.120 a big problem or

00:46:58.940 not a problem,

00:46:59.960 you'd still want

00:47:00.920 to sell as much

00:47:01.820 natural gas as

00:47:03.260 you could because

00:47:03.900 it's better than

00:47:04.540 the alternatives.

00:47:05.300 we sell it.

00:47:06.800 The United

00:47:07.160 States makes a

00:47:07.920 lot of it.

00:47:08.740 And you'd

00:47:09.160 still want to

00:47:09.700 build nuclear as

00:47:10.600 quickly as you

00:47:11.160 can for a

00:47:11.680 whole variety of

00:47:12.360 reasons.

00:47:12.840 One of them is

00:47:13.460 getting enough

00:47:13.960 energy, polluting

00:47:15.320 less, preparing

00:47:16.560 for the war in

00:47:19.220 space where we

00:47:19.960 want to, we're

00:47:20.780 going to need a

00:47:22.020 good nuclear

00:47:23.880 scientific community

00:47:25.540 for all that.

00:47:28.200 So anyway,

00:47:29.320 that's some good

00:47:31.000 news.

00:47:31.440 But it's not

00:47:31.980 getting much

00:47:32.400 attention because

00:47:33.040 this coronavirus has

00:47:34.100 taken all the

00:47:34.620 attention.

00:47:35.600 Speaking of

00:47:36.200 which, Josh

00:47:36.740 Hawley, senator

00:47:37.420 from Missouri,

00:47:38.520 has some

00:47:39.280 legislation that

00:47:41.500 will allow the

00:47:45.020 United States to

00:47:45.960 better diversify

00:47:47.380 away from

00:47:48.040 being, have

00:47:49.640 too much of

00:47:50.220 our medical

00:47:50.820 supplies in

00:47:51.660 one place

00:47:52.380 outside the

00:47:53.080 country.

00:47:53.820 So the big

00:47:54.300 problem is that

00:47:54.780 China makes a 0.99

00:47:55.400 lot of our

00:47:55.800 medicines and

00:47:56.620 medical supplies

00:47:57.380 and this

00:47:59.320 Josh Hawley

00:48:00.020 legislation,

00:48:02.380 proposed legislation

00:48:03.220 would make it

00:48:05.040 easier to

00:48:05.720 identify where

00:48:06.940 our problems

00:48:08.040 are so we

00:48:08.520 can bring more

00:48:09.040 manufacturing to

00:48:10.340 safer places like

00:48:11.460 the U.S.

00:48:12.440 And I think

00:48:13.320 that's a great

00:48:14.100 idea.

00:48:18.500 Yeah, I'm not

00:48:19.560 even going to say

00:48:20.020 that one.

00:48:21.800 So this would be

00:48:23.600 gigantic news,

00:48:25.020 except for the

00:48:26.040 coronavirus.

00:48:26.420 virus, but

00:48:27.920 apparently Syrian

00:48:29.400 forces, which

00:48:30.580 probably means

00:48:31.540 Russia in this

00:48:32.880 case, apparently

00:48:33.880 they bombed and

00:48:34.880 killed a few

00:48:37.920 dozen Turks

00:48:39.800 somewhere in

00:48:41.680 Syria.

00:48:42.800 So Turkey is 0.55

00:48:44.260 responding by

00:48:45.080 opening their

00:48:45.740 border and

00:48:46.460 letting refugees 1.00

00:48:47.240 flow into

00:48:48.000 Europe.

00:48:49.500 What?

00:48:51.800 So we have

00:48:53.040 this weird NATO

00:48:53.880 situation, because

00:48:54.840 on one hand, we

00:48:55.580 back our NATO 0.82

00:48:57.040 ally Turkey

00:48:57.820 against Syrian 0.90

00:49:00.500 and probably

00:49:01.300 Russian military

00:49:02.620 action against

00:49:03.360 them.

00:49:03.940 But was it an

00:49:04.760 accident?

00:49:05.440 Why did they do

00:49:06.120 it?

00:49:06.360 We don't really

00:49:06.860 know what's

00:49:07.800 going on there.

00:49:09.080 Because, you

00:49:09.460 know, 30 people

00:49:10.120 could have been

00:49:10.580 one missile, one

00:49:12.280 bomb that went

00:49:12.940 wrong.

00:49:13.820 So we don't

00:49:14.120 know exactly

00:49:14.720 what's going on.

00:49:16.620 But can we

00:49:18.160 have a NATO

00:49:18.820 ally who just

00:49:19.880 opened its

00:49:20.400 border to

00:49:21.520 pour a bunch

00:49:22.300 of refugees

00:49:22.880 into Europe?

00:49:24.540 What kind of

00:49:25.320 a NATO

00:49:25.980 ally is that?

00:49:28.120 That's not

00:49:28.740 much of a

00:49:29.160 NATO ally,

00:49:30.000 is it?

00:49:32.060 So we're

00:49:32.760 watching that.

00:49:33.660 I guess the

00:49:34.120 biggest news

00:49:35.480 about that is

00:49:36.140 that we don't

00:49:36.660 care.

00:49:38.440 Does the

00:49:39.080 United States

00:49:39.620 care if Syria 0.58

00:49:41.000 and Turkey are

00:49:41.880 killing each

00:49:42.400 other?

00:49:43.440 I mean, we

00:49:43.920 wish nobody

00:49:44.500 were dying,

00:49:45.240 right?

00:49:45.620 But in terms

00:49:46.740 of our national

00:49:47.420 interest, I

00:49:48.720 just don't

00:49:49.260 know if we

00:49:50.040 care.

00:49:51.180 Now, I

00:49:51.860 would like

00:49:52.160 to ask

00:49:54.880 you this

00:49:55.320 question.

00:49:57.020 For those

00:49:57.700 of you who

00:49:58.120 have been

00:49:58.260 watching my

00:49:58.760 periscopes,

00:50:00.000 when the

00:50:01.080 first news

00:50:02.160 broke of

00:50:03.000 the coronavirus

00:50:03.580 in China,

00:50:05.900 some of you

00:50:06.620 saw me give

00:50:07.360 a rather

00:50:09.000 expletive-laden

00:50:11.920 periscope in

00:50:13.480 which I was

00:50:13.960 calling for

00:50:14.520 closing the

00:50:15.440 airports.

00:50:17.600 And this

00:50:18.220 is a question

00:50:18.700 because I

00:50:19.040 don't know

00:50:19.280 the answer.

00:50:20.540 Was I

00:50:20.940 the first

00:50:21.440 person that

00:50:22.340 you heard

00:50:22.960 say, close

00:50:24.860 the airports?

00:50:27.580 Because, you

00:50:28.540 know, I

00:50:28.680 like to do

00:50:29.140 an audit of

00:50:30.200 what I have

00:50:31.060 tried to

00:50:31.600 persuade and

00:50:33.200 how it did

00:50:34.140 and whether

00:50:34.540 it's compatible

00:50:35.120 with what

00:50:35.640 actually happened.

00:50:36.380 You can't

00:50:36.680 really tell if

00:50:37.200 you made a

00:50:37.620 difference, but

00:50:38.520 you can tell

00:50:38.880 if it's

00:50:39.140 compatible with

00:50:39.860 what happened.

00:50:41.560 But in

00:50:44.140 the public

00:50:44.820 realm, was

00:50:47.020 I the first

00:50:47.820 person that

00:50:48.360 most of you

00:50:48.880 saw saying,

00:50:50.040 close the

00:50:51.220 FN airport?

00:50:53.720 And can

00:50:55.180 we say at

00:50:55.780 this point,

00:50:56.380 some people

00:50:56.860 are saying

00:50:57.180 no, so I'd

00:50:57.860 like, if

00:50:58.940 other people

00:50:59.440 were saying

00:50:59.860 it, I

00:51:00.840 would be

00:51:01.080 interested in

00:51:01.500 that.

00:51:02.220 But my

00:51:03.540 expletive-laden

00:51:05.200 periscopes became

00:51:07.060 very viral.

00:51:08.240 And as you

00:51:08.920 know, a lot

00:51:09.360 of people watch

00:51:10.460 them who are

00:51:11.140 part of the

00:51:12.700 government and

00:51:13.300 part of the

00:51:13.640 media.

00:51:13.820 and I'm

00:51:15.220 thinking, I

00:51:16.400 don't know if

00:51:16.920 anybody went

00:51:17.560 as strong as

00:51:18.840 early as I

00:51:20.880 did.

00:51:21.900 And I'd like to

00:51:23.000 think it was

00:51:23.420 helpful.

00:51:26.460 So Taleb said

00:51:27.600 close it down,

00:51:28.760 but did he

00:51:30.640 persuade as

00:51:32.260 aggressively as

00:51:33.560 I did?

00:51:34.860 So I'm saying

00:51:35.640 other names,

00:51:36.520 people said to

00:51:37.240 shut it down.

00:51:38.600 Steve Bannon

00:51:39.120 was first.

00:51:39.620 Well, I'd

00:51:40.280 like to know

00:51:40.740 who was early

00:51:42.620 and persuasive

00:51:43.480 in that.

00:51:44.440 I will not

00:51:45.440 make the claim

00:51:46.080 that I was

00:51:46.560 first, because

00:51:47.240 that doesn't

00:51:47.600 make any

00:51:48.020 sense.

00:51:48.740 Who knows

00:51:49.580 who's thinking

00:51:50.360 what to

00:51:50.820 wear at

00:51:51.200 what time.

00:51:52.600 But I'd

00:51:54.280 like to

00:51:54.900 think that I

00:51:55.820 did something

00:51:56.380 useful by

00:51:57.340 getting in as

00:51:57.980 fast as I

00:51:58.680 could and

00:51:59.300 being as,

00:52:00.740 let's say,

00:52:01.780 aggressive as

00:52:02.680 I was about

00:52:03.940 that point.

00:52:07.280 Persuasion

00:52:07.800 check, your

00:52:08.400 biasing

00:52:08.840 responses.

00:52:09.620 Yeah, I

00:52:10.180 am.

00:52:12.700 We're also

00:52:13.420 seeing way

00:52:14.080 more decoupling

00:52:15.060 talk than

00:52:16.020 ever before.

00:52:17.500 I'm certainly

00:52:18.300 one of the

00:52:18.800 most active

00:52:19.380 people talking

00:52:20.080 about decoupling.

00:52:21.140 I would not

00:52:21.760 be the

00:52:22.160 strongest voice

00:52:23.060 for that,

00:52:24.060 but certainly

00:52:24.720 doing my

00:52:25.480 part.

00:52:31.800 So it

00:52:32.400 could be the

00:52:32.800 band who

00:52:33.200 was first,

00:52:33.940 some people

00:52:34.480 were saying.

00:52:34.840 Anyway, it

00:52:35.220 doesn't matter

00:52:35.600 who was first,

00:52:36.480 but the people

00:52:37.040 who were there

00:52:37.460 early and were

00:52:38.440 aggressive about

00:52:39.340 it, pat

00:52:40.900 yourself on

00:52:41.360 the back.

00:52:42.820 I think that

00:52:44.400 the, you

00:52:44.880 know, I was

00:52:45.320 talking about

00:52:45.760 this before,

00:52:46.740 that our

00:52:47.960 form of

00:52:48.620 government has

00:52:49.540 transmogrified or 1.00

00:52:51.280 evolved from

00:52:52.520 being something

00:52:53.060 like a republic

00:52:53.820 to something more

00:52:55.800 like a direct

00:52:56.760 democracy where

00:52:57.740 influential people

00:52:58.880 on social media

00:52:59.780 are pushing the

00:53:01.200 government.

00:53:01.540 government.

00:53:02.400 So instead of

00:53:03.140 electing people

00:53:05.060 and they go

00:53:05.580 off and make

00:53:06.040 decisions on

00:53:06.720 your behalf,

00:53:07.520 the public is

00:53:08.520 more directly

00:53:09.200 pushing the

00:53:09.800 politicians on

00:53:10.600 these issues

00:53:11.280 that we

00:53:11.580 understand.

00:53:12.800 I think this

00:53:13.340 is an example.

00:53:14.320 I would say

00:53:14.740 that the

00:53:15.180 public,

00:53:16.560 and primarily

00:53:17.320 social media,

00:53:20.460 I think that

00:53:21.220 the persuasive

00:53:23.060 people on

00:53:23.860 social media

00:53:24.540 probably

00:53:26.100 saved the

00:53:27.800 United States

00:53:28.760 two to three

00:53:30.900 weeks to

00:53:32.140 help us get

00:53:32.700 prepared.

00:53:33.620 And again,

00:53:34.240 I don't know if

00:53:34.700 the preparation

00:53:35.280 makes a difference,

00:53:36.120 but it probably

00:53:36.540 does.

00:53:37.720 So I would

00:53:39.560 say congratulations

00:53:40.720 to anybody who

00:53:43.200 was on social

00:53:43.980 media who was

00:53:44.760 part of really

00:53:46.840 aggressively pushing

00:53:47.840 the government

00:53:48.860 to act quickly

00:53:50.260 and decisively

00:53:51.180 in a way that

00:53:51.960 everybody knew

00:53:53.480 would be

00:53:53.820 politically

00:53:54.280 unpopular.

00:53:55.660 Everybody knew

00:53:56.560 it would be

00:53:57.560 politically

00:53:58.160 unpopular,

00:53:59.180 but the

00:53:59.700 president did

00:54:00.340 it, and he

00:54:00.860 did it pretty

00:54:01.340 quickly, and I

00:54:02.700 think he did

00:54:03.180 it because of

00:54:03.720 social media

00:54:04.320 pressure, and I

00:54:05.780 think you've

00:54:06.140 got to pat

00:54:06.940 yourselves on

00:54:07.500 the back.

00:54:09.020 Because anybody

00:54:09.720 who retweeted

00:54:11.400 my curse-laden

00:54:14.820 opinion, or

00:54:16.020 anybody who

00:54:16.600 retweeted

00:54:17.400 Bannon, or

00:54:18.740 anybody else

00:54:19.220 who was saying

00:54:19.600 the same thing,

00:54:20.300 Mike Cernovich,

00:54:22.020 Jack Posobiec,

00:54:23.080 any of those

00:54:23.520 people, you

00:54:25.060 all helped.

00:54:25.700 I mean, you

00:54:26.920 were directly

00:54:28.280 part of that

00:54:29.920 solution, so

00:54:30.740 pat yourself on

00:54:31.420 the back.

00:54:33.020 Who knows how

00:54:34.320 it all turned

00:54:34.860 out, but I

00:54:37.000 feel as if

00:54:37.960 reason one,

00:54:40.720 didn't it?

00:54:41.560 You know, I

00:54:41.960 feel like the

00:54:42.460 system kind of

00:54:44.420 proved itself

00:54:44.960 pretty well

00:54:45.460 there.

00:54:46.580 All right.

00:54:48.500 I think that's

00:54:49.340 about all I got

00:54:50.120 to talk about.

00:54:50.660 somebody said

00:54:54.460 you were more

00:54:55.080 aggressive, but

00:54:55.880 not necessarily

00:54:56.600 the first.

00:54:57.380 I think that

00:54:58.000 probably is the

00:54:58.980 most accurate

00:54:59.540 statement.

00:55:00.400 I believe I

00:55:01.500 was the most

00:55:03.000 aggressive of

00:55:05.060 the people who

00:55:05.780 were early.

00:55:06.820 But being early

00:55:08.000 and not

00:55:08.580 aggressive, I

00:55:10.340 don't know if

00:55:10.860 that made a

00:55:11.320 difference.

00:55:12.560 Being early

00:55:13.280 and being crazy

00:55:15.680 about it gets

00:55:17.480 more attention.

00:55:18.060 All right.

00:55:20.780 That's all I

00:55:21.400 have to say

00:55:21.880 for now.

00:55:23.480 And I will

00:55:24.240 talk to you

00:55:24.900 later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 28, 2020

Episode 834 Scott Adams： All The #Loserthink Around Coronavirus

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