Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 835 Scott Adams： #HOAX8, Travel Restrictions, Large Gatherings, Peace in Afghanistan, How to Cure Terrorism

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, it's good to see you.

00:00:12.920 Yes, it's time for another edition of Coffee with Scott Adams,

00:00:17.860 and we're going to feature the simultaneous sip in a moment.

00:00:22.840 As people are screaming in, oh, I think it's already time.

00:00:26.660 DJ Dr. Fung Juice, good to see you again.

00:00:30.540 And for the rest of you, I know what you want.

00:00:34.840 Grab your materials.

00:00:37.480 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or a stein,

00:00:40.480 a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:43.800 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:46.100 I like coffee.

00:00:47.380 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day,

00:00:50.200 the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:51.600 I mean everything.

00:00:52.720 Everything except the coronavirus.

00:00:55.480 And we haven't really tested it on that.

00:00:57.960 It might cure it.

00:00:58.900 It's worth a try.

00:01:00.820 Go.

00:01:09.380 I'm so happy I can hardly contain myself today.

00:01:13.520 As you know, I've been in screaming pain for about two weeks, at least a few hours a day every day.

00:01:20.760 But I just got on some prednisone and some other antibiotics, and I woke up feeling good for the first time in weeks.

00:01:30.620 Do you know how good it feels?

00:01:31.920 Do you know how good it feels to feel good?

00:01:34.260 I'll bet you do.

00:01:35.680 Have you ever been sick, and then there's that first day when you're not sick anymore?

00:01:40.480 Oh my goodness.

00:01:41.720 It feels so good.

00:01:43.280 It feels so good.

00:01:44.620 So if I seem extra happy today, that's why.

00:01:48.260 Well, speaking of happiness, let's talk about the opposite.

00:01:55.520 Now normally, I don't like to spend a lot of time in these periscopes talking about stuff that isn't fun.

00:02:03.320 But you can't really ignore the coronavirus.

00:02:06.820 The coronavirus has its own agenda, apparently.

00:02:10.060 And so here are some stats from the news.

00:02:15.200 85,000 people are confirmed.

00:02:18.380 What does that mean if 85,000 people are confirmed to have it, and it's highly viral?

00:02:25.240 How many people have it?

00:02:27.800 What do you think is the multiplier on that of known to unknown cases?

00:02:34.060 Does anybody know?

00:02:36.060 I don't think anybody knows, right?

00:02:37.660 Because we're finding these cases now that don't seem connected to anybody else who hasn't.

00:02:44.300 Now, of course, they must be, but we can't figure out how.

00:02:48.940 So there's that.

00:02:50.240 I'm going to get to some good news.

00:02:52.780 So if you're waiting for some optimism, it's coming.

00:02:56.260 I'm just giving you some stats.

00:02:58.220 So the death toll stands at over 2,900.

00:03:01.560 The risk of global spread is, quote, very high, according to WHO.

00:03:13.080 We're seeing cases in Mexico.

00:03:16.340 Well, that's going to get interesting.

00:03:17.680 We'll talk about that.

00:03:20.400 People were U.S. citizens are urged not to travel to Italy unless it's essential.

00:03:25.700 South Korea has 3,000 cases.

00:03:27.560 Italy is around 50,000 in quarantine.

00:03:33.240 Schools across Japan are closing.

00:03:35.580 And I think in France, they just announced that no gatherings more than 5,000 people will be allowed.

00:03:44.240 So, and you can see that the stock market is basically pricing in a zombie apocalypse.

00:03:54.920 So there are two things which have become separated at this point.

00:04:00.300 One is the effects of the coronavirus psychologically and economically, because those are the same.

00:04:10.100 The economy is really a psychology machine, and right now it's broken.

00:04:15.040 So the machine of the economy is broken, because the psychology that drives it is currently degraded,

00:04:23.060 because people are worried.

00:04:24.780 Rightfully worried, but maybe a little too much.

00:04:27.140 So, I'm going to give you my predictions.

00:04:32.300 You ready?

00:04:33.760 It goes like this.

00:04:35.560 I think the stock market is most likely to suffer for about a year.

00:04:41.480 Could be two, could be three, could be six months.

00:04:45.240 But I'm going to pick a midpoint.

00:04:46.680 I think about a year.

00:04:48.800 And by that I mean all of the other fundamentals are pretty good.

00:04:53.520 Pretty good.

00:04:54.040 So, when things come back, they'll probably come back pretty quickly.

00:04:58.620 But I think we have about a year of worry.

00:05:01.580 Certainly, it's more than worry, because supply chains are being disrupted, etc.

00:05:07.400 So, if you're an investor, I would say that selling your stocks now might be the very worst thing you could do.

00:05:16.720 Now, I don't give financial advice on here, so do not take any investment advice from cartoonists.

00:05:25.520 But the stock market is a weird kind of investment, because there's one quality that a lot of other investments don't have.

00:05:31.960 Which is, if your money ever went to zero in the stock market, let's say you've got a diversified portfolio.

00:05:39.180 You didn't do something stupid and buy individual companies, but you bought a diversified portfolio, which you should do.

00:05:46.980 If you've done that, the odds of that ever going to zero, well, very low.

00:05:52.540 But if it did, money wouldn't be worth anything.

00:05:55.740 So, it wouldn't matter where else you had your money.

00:05:59.620 If the stock market ever went to zero, nobody would have money.

00:06:04.880 That would be the end of the economy, the end of civilization.

00:06:07.420 Now, that's not true of other investments.

00:06:10.280 You could buy a house, which most people consider a good investment, right?

00:06:14.980 But your house could burn down, and you forgot to put insurance on it.

00:06:18.700 You could lose your job, and the bank takes it, etc.

00:06:22.620 So, if you're looking at one individual thing, you could lose it all.

00:06:27.340 But you don't really have that same kind of risk with the stock market.

00:06:31.500 Because if you were to lose it all in the stock market, it means that no matter where else your money was, it's gone.

00:06:39.280 There won't be any banks if the stock market went to zero.

00:06:43.220 There would be no banks.

00:06:45.660 And your cash would be worthless.

00:06:47.420 The government would be defunct and all that.

00:06:50.700 So, getting out of a long-term risky investment sometimes makes sense.

00:06:58.640 Getting out of an investment whose risk is identical to the risk of civilization itself doesn't make sense.

00:07:08.280 So, if you're a long-term holder, this would be a good time to remind yourself why you're a long-term holder of stocks.

00:07:15.620 I will tell you my personal strategy.

00:07:18.700 My personal strategy is that I'm actually worried that the stock market will recover too much on Monday.

00:07:25.300 Because I want to buy.

00:07:29.280 So, I'm a buyer at this price.

00:07:32.520 If the stock market goes up 5% tomorrow, maybe yes, maybe no.

00:07:38.480 I mean, on Monday if it goes up 5%.

00:07:40.560 If it goes down 10%, maybe I'll wait.

00:07:44.860 Maybe I'll wait.

00:07:45.760 See if it finds a little temporary bottom.

00:07:48.000 But I'm going to wait for the downward pressure to sort of plateau a little bit.

00:07:52.900 If it looks like the downward pressure is slowing on Monday, I'll probably put every penny I have excess into the market.

00:08:01.320 I can't imagine there would be a better time to buy.

00:08:04.000 Now, that's not stock advice.

00:08:07.660 You really, really should not take advice from individuals unless they're telling you to diversify.

00:08:14.840 Everything else is just BS.

00:08:16.840 But in the stock market, it's generally considered wise to buy and hold for long term.

00:08:22.240 All right.

00:08:23.800 Here's what I predict for the coronavirus itself.

00:08:27.320 And this is related to my stock market prediction.

00:08:30.800 And I think this is compatible with what Dr. Drew tweeted yesterday, I believe.

00:08:37.520 And I was kind of...

00:08:38.820 Somebody says, stop giving advice.

00:08:41.940 You're listening to the part where I said, I'm not giving advice.

00:08:45.680 All right.

00:08:46.740 You get blocked for not hearing me say, I'm not giving advice on stocks.

00:08:54.960 So, Dr. Drew tweeted, basically, a lot of people are going to get the coronavirus.

00:09:03.660 And it will, for the most part, be mild.

00:09:05.520 Most people who get it will have something like a cold.

00:09:09.920 And then when it's over, probably can't get it again.

00:09:13.600 We're seeing some reports of people being reinfected.

00:09:16.320 But I think those are unreliable.

00:09:19.040 It seems to me unlikely that you could be reinfected.

00:09:22.620 Like, why would this be the one kind of virus cold situation where you could get it more than once?

00:09:28.460 So, I'm not buying.

00:09:31.900 I'm not going to buy the idea that you could get reinfected yet.

00:09:37.280 I'm watching for that.

00:09:38.720 I mean, if that's the case, I'd be ten times more worried.

00:09:42.580 But I suspect it's not the case.

00:09:44.200 We'll see.

00:09:45.360 So, the Dr. Drew approach is that it's coming.

00:09:49.540 A lot of you are going to get it.

00:09:51.480 Maybe all of us.

00:09:52.860 Maybe every single one of us will get it.

00:09:54.520 It won't be that big a deal.

00:09:57.280 Now, when I say it won't be that big a deal,

00:09:59.480 if you're one of the 2% of the people who die from it,

00:10:03.340 that's a pretty big deal.

00:10:05.480 But for most of you, you probably won't notice.

00:10:08.780 So, keep that in mind.

00:10:12.220 So, and the other thing that you have to get accustomed to

00:10:15.860 is what I call the...

00:10:19.000 This is my mother's theory,

00:10:20.560 that you can get used to anything if you do it long enough,

00:10:22.980 including hanging.

00:10:25.340 So, she used to point out that

00:10:28.160 even if things were bothering you,

00:10:29.880 you'd probably get used to it.

00:10:31.880 And the coronavirus, because it's new and different,

00:10:35.380 and most of us alive have not gone through a pandemic,

00:10:38.540 it feels not normal.

00:10:41.040 It feels like a big, scary thing.

00:10:43.360 But check back in six months.

00:10:46.060 In six months,

00:10:47.640 I'm not even sure it'll be a headline,

00:10:49.500 but it will probably be ten times bigger.

00:10:51.160 Because there'll be just tons of people who have it.

00:10:55.800 Now, I think we're going to get a lot smarter,

00:10:58.020 and we're going to get a lot smarter fairly quick.

00:11:00.900 Not only about testing for it,

00:11:04.060 but maybe in a year or so,

00:11:06.060 we'll have a vaccine,

00:11:08.480 et cetera.

00:11:10.180 So, we're going to get smart quick.

00:11:11.900 One of the things that Naval tweeted,

00:11:15.540 maybe yesterday, maybe today,

00:11:17.280 it's new.

00:11:18.760 So, Naval Ravikant,

00:11:21.080 was saying that we should get better data

00:11:24.180 on who's getting it and who's not.

00:11:27.980 Actually, Balaji,

00:11:30.280 Srinivasan,

00:11:31.140 was talking about getting better data

00:11:33.460 on the genetics

00:11:34.660 of the people who are having a tough time

00:11:37.180 with the virus versus those who are not.

00:11:39.780 Because if there's

00:11:40.620 some correlation,

00:11:42.940 and Balaji notes

00:11:44.280 that the odds of finding that exact

00:11:46.500 genetic correlation

00:11:48.220 between who dies and who doesn't,

00:11:51.020 it's not a high chance.

00:11:52.780 It's not like 75% chance

00:11:55.020 you're going to find

00:11:55.680 what makes it different in different people.

00:11:58.280 But there's a good chance.

00:12:00.380 And given that the stakes are so high,

00:12:03.940 certainly we should know

00:12:05.560 if there's something about individuals

00:12:07.340 that make them more susceptible,

00:12:08.980 other than the obvious.

00:12:10.240 You know, the obvious being

00:12:11.260 that older people 1.00

00:12:12.960 and compromised people

00:12:14.840 have more trouble.

00:12:16.640 One of the things that Naval suggests

00:12:19.220 is that we look at heat.

00:12:22.340 In other words,

00:12:23.040 what's the temperature and humidity

00:12:24.620 in the places?

00:12:26.500 And does that have some impact

00:12:28.680 on the spread?

00:12:29.920 Because you might, for example,

00:12:31.760 say that as soon as

00:12:33.640 the warmer weather gets here,

00:12:34.960 we'll get a lot of relief

00:12:36.440 and maybe that gives us enough relief

00:12:38.320 until the vaccines come online

00:12:39.900 or even the testing kits come online.

00:12:44.180 So I'll give you my

00:12:46.240 complete prediction.

00:12:50.080 Now remember,

00:12:51.240 nobody can predict the future.

00:12:53.520 So don't look at anything

00:12:55.020 I said about politics

00:12:56.760 and say,

00:12:57.440 well, he got that right.

00:12:58.960 So therefore,

00:13:00.000 he'll predict right

00:13:00.780 about a coronavirus.

00:13:01.880 They don't really,

00:13:03.860 that skill doesn't transfer it over.

00:13:05.800 I'll just tell you my opinion.

00:13:07.820 My opinion is

00:13:09.000 this virus will be so widespread

00:13:12.540 that your decision about traveling

00:13:16.720 or even going to large events

00:13:18.840 will become fatalistic.

00:13:22.300 And what I mean by that

00:13:23.660 is there's going to be a point

00:13:25.180 where you say to yourself,

00:13:26.480 you know,

00:13:26.840 I'm just going to get this thing.

00:13:29.880 Let's just get it over with.

00:13:32.000 Like my friend's got it.

00:13:33.580 It's in my office.

00:13:35.060 If I go to the doctor's office,

00:13:36.920 probably the receptionist has it.

00:13:39.960 It's just all over.

00:13:41.260 I'm going to get it.

00:13:42.100 Now,

00:13:43.480 if you're 80

00:13:44.840 and you've got

00:13:46.980 some immunity problems

00:13:49.120 or some health problems

00:13:50.180 in general,

00:13:51.400 you might want to just

00:13:52.580 quarantine yourself

00:13:53.480 until this passes.

00:13:55.540 But if you're 35

00:13:57.580 in perfect health,

00:14:00.740 and maybe if we knew

00:14:02.200 a little bit more,

00:14:03.660 as Balaji suggests,

00:14:05.600 Sri Navasana,

00:14:06.520 he suggests that we know more about

00:14:08.120 who's really suffering

00:14:10.680 and who's not,

00:14:11.340 if you decide

00:14:13.500 that you're one of those people

00:14:14.580 who probably isn't going to die,

00:14:17.300 maybe you just say,

00:14:18.240 well,

00:14:18.740 I don't know.

00:14:19.580 I'm going to get it.

00:14:20.300 I'm going to get it.

00:14:21.020 Somebody says,

00:14:21.580 what about children?

00:14:23.280 Good point.

00:14:25.000 As long as schools are open,

00:14:28.020 there's nothing you can do.

00:14:30.420 If you've got kids

00:14:31.820 and those kids go to school,

00:14:34.840 you're going to get the coronavirus.

00:14:37.560 Let me just say that

00:14:38.620 as clearly as I can say it.

00:14:40.160 If you have children

00:14:41.640 and they go to school,

00:14:43.700 you're getting the coronavirus.

00:14:46.320 But it'll probably be like a cold.

00:14:48.860 You have a few days off of work,

00:14:50.500 you will feel no guilt

00:14:51.900 about going to work.

00:14:53.720 You know,

00:14:54.020 if you ever notice

00:14:55.960 you have a minor cold

00:14:57.360 or a headache or something,

00:14:58.580 you feel like

00:14:59.180 you've got to tough up

00:15:00.560 and go to work,

00:15:01.940 it's like,

00:15:02.280 I'm not going to miss work

00:15:04.140 just from a sniffle.

00:15:05.260 So you'll always have that balance

00:15:07.620 of should I go to work?

00:15:09.000 Should I not?

00:15:10.140 But if you get the coronavirus,

00:15:12.740 it's vacation time.

00:15:15.620 Let's hope it's not too bad for you,

00:15:17.380 but you're not going to feel bad

00:15:18.780 about staying home

00:15:19.640 because believe me,

00:15:21.280 your coworkers will be happy about it

00:15:22.900 even though you're going to get it all anyway.

00:15:25.700 So here's the attitude

00:15:27.300 I would suggest taking into this.

00:15:30.980 You are probably going to get a cold

00:15:33.220 or a flu sometime

00:15:34.220 in the next year or so anyway.

00:15:36.580 Most of us,

00:15:37.840 most of us

00:15:38.920 don't go a full year

00:15:40.900 without getting something.

00:15:43.540 I mean,

00:15:43.760 you're watching me,

00:15:44.420 I've got like three things

00:15:45.940 going on right now.

00:15:47.080 So it's normal to get something.

00:15:49.200 You're probably going to get this.

00:15:51.580 Probably.

00:15:52.760 I'd say 75% chance.

00:15:55.100 So instead of obsessing

00:15:57.340 over whether you will get it or not,

00:16:01.120 I recommend,

00:16:02.360 as long as you're not immunocompromised,

00:16:05.440 I recommend thinking,

00:16:07.080 sooner or later,

00:16:08.160 I'm going to get this.

00:16:10.740 Sooner or later,

00:16:11.380 I'm going to get this.

00:16:12.520 I'll feel bad for a week

00:16:13.620 and then I'll be better.

00:16:14.780 And then I can't get it again.

00:16:16.620 In all likelihood,

00:16:17.700 that's the way it's going to look.

00:16:19.400 So I think when this starts to normalize,

00:16:22.760 even if the death rate is 2%,

00:16:25.180 which is 20 times higher

00:16:26.680 than the 0.1

00:16:28.500 that we would normally see

00:16:30.560 with the regular flu,

00:16:31.920 somebody had this provocative,

00:16:33.740 provocative observation

00:16:37.000 on social media.

00:16:38.160 I want to test this with you.

00:16:40.520 In the comments,

00:16:41.620 it'll be about a 30-second delay

00:16:43.380 before they show up.

00:16:44.800 In the comments,

00:16:45.680 do you know anybody personally,

00:16:49.680 and it could be a co-worker,

00:16:51.520 it doesn't have to be a best friend

00:16:52.560 or anything,

00:16:53.440 do you know anybody personally

00:16:55.000 who has ever died

00:16:57.040 from standard flus?

00:17:00.360 Because we know that

00:17:01.340 a regular flu,

00:17:02.740 you know,

00:17:02.920 just your everyday flu

00:17:03.900 that hits us every year,

00:17:05.880 kills millions.

00:17:08.140 And I thought about it,

00:17:09.240 I thought,

00:17:09.920 you know,

00:17:10.240 I know people

00:17:11.140 who have died of AIDS,

00:17:12.940 alcoholism,

00:17:14.200 accidents.

00:17:14.860 I know somebody

00:17:15.360 who died in a parachuting accident.

00:17:17.940 I mean,

00:17:18.260 personally.

00:17:18.960 These are people

00:17:19.560 I personally know.

00:17:21.500 But I don't know

00:17:22.440 anybody who died of a flu

00:17:23.800 or complications

00:17:25.740 from the flu

00:17:26.480 from being old.

00:17:28.200 And look at the comments

00:17:29.260 coming in.

00:17:29.840 Look at all the no's.

00:17:33.420 I'm trying,

00:17:34.380 I'm trying to reconcile

00:17:35.740 the fact that

00:17:37.740 the regular flu

00:17:38.620 kills so many people routinely.

00:17:41.560 But look at all the no's 0.99

00:17:42.580 coming in.

00:17:43.340 In fact,

00:17:43.720 there's no yes.

00:17:44.980 There's not a single yes

00:17:46.100 in that whole line of no's.

00:17:48.560 None of us know anybody

00:17:49.920 who died from the flu?

00:17:51.620 The old regular flu?

00:17:55.340 Somebody said they had a,

00:17:56.440 somebody said they had a friend

00:17:57.920 who died from the flu vaccine.

00:18:01.320 Maybe.

00:18:02.940 I don't know.

00:18:03.300 I'm not sure if you can tell

00:18:04.320 what kills somebody every time.

00:18:07.320 Somebody says yes,

00:18:08.400 elderly in wheelchairs 0.98

00:18:09.740 often do.

00:18:10.660 But do you know one?

00:18:12.120 And so everybody knows

00:18:13.240 the data.

00:18:16.680 The data

00:18:17.500 says that it kills people.

00:18:21.000 But why don't we know anybody?

00:18:23.820 Right?

00:18:24.760 So what if,

00:18:26.240 so look at all the no's go by.

00:18:27.940 And this is the big reveal

00:18:29.580 I was getting to.

00:18:31.000 Oh, somebody knows one.

00:18:31.940 A 40-year-old woman

00:18:33.100 this year.

00:18:34.580 Somebody says they know

00:18:37.740 four people in their 50s

00:18:39.660 who died

00:18:40.620 because of flu?

00:18:44.860 Eh,

00:18:45.560 not so sure about that.

00:18:49.740 All right,

00:18:50.380 so now I'm getting

00:18:51.240 a trickle of yes's

00:18:52.740 but mostly no's.

00:18:54.120 So here's a question for you.

00:18:56.140 If the number of people

00:18:57.980 dying from the flu

00:18:59.480 were to increase

00:19:01.500 by 20.

00:19:03.760 I don't think that's

00:19:04.620 going to happen.

00:19:05.620 But suppose it increased

00:19:06.420 by 20.

00:19:08.480 Would you know somebody?

00:19:10.940 Because,

00:19:12.760 yeah,

00:19:14.240 and somebody say,

00:19:14.880 I know of people,

00:19:16.140 but you don't know

00:19:16.720 any personally.

00:19:17.840 Somebody says,

00:19:18.540 someone in my town

00:19:19.700 means you've heard of it.

00:19:21.800 somebody says

00:19:24.380 four co-workers

00:19:25.360 died from the flu.

00:19:26.480 I'm sorry,

00:19:26.920 I don't believe that.

00:19:28.160 I don't believe

00:19:28.820 there's anybody

00:19:29.360 who has four co-workers

00:19:30.880 who died from the flu.

00:19:32.920 All right,

00:19:33.340 that looks like

00:19:34.420 a troll answer to me.

00:19:35.720 I don't believe that.

00:19:38.560 Somebody says,

00:19:39.340 I knew someone.

00:19:43.340 Somebody says,

00:19:44.500 it's always heart failure

00:19:46.160 that kills people.

00:19:47.320 Well,

00:19:48.500 I suppose

00:19:49.060 you could argue that.

00:19:50.980 All right,

00:19:51.800 so I'm not sure

00:19:52.960 I trust all of the people

00:19:54.300 saying yes on here.

00:19:55.580 But here's my point.

00:19:56.760 I think there's

00:19:57.360 a really high likelihood

00:19:58.420 that the rate of death

00:20:01.160 from this virus

00:20:02.660 could be much higher

00:20:03.640 and you wouldn't

00:20:05.300 even notice.

00:20:06.940 Because the people dying

00:20:08.200 would be people in,

00:20:10.920 I'm oversimplifying here,

00:20:12.520 but in general,

00:20:14.640 the people who would be

00:20:16.240 dying from it

00:20:16.960 might be dying

00:20:18.480 from other stuff

00:20:19.420 around the same time.

00:20:20.720 meaning that

00:20:22.120 just because

00:20:22.840 this is the bullet

00:20:23.740 that killed them

00:20:24.760 doesn't mean

00:20:26.020 there were a hail

00:20:27.040 of bullets

00:20:27.500 heading their way.

00:20:28.320 I mean,

00:20:28.500 if you're 85

00:20:29.240 and you've got

00:20:30.640 some health problems

00:20:31.420 already,

00:20:32.660 one of the bullets

00:20:34.480 is going to get you.

00:20:36.000 And sometimes

00:20:36.640 it might be the virus.

00:20:37.680 So my guess is

00:20:42.000 you're going to see

00:20:42.420 a lot of it.

00:20:43.100 You may be surprised

00:20:44.420 that the only people

00:20:46.200 dying are the people

00:20:47.260 who are going to die

00:20:48.140 pretty soon anyway

00:20:49.240 from one thing

00:20:50.580 or another.

00:20:51.700 It's all right.

00:20:56.620 Let's see.

00:20:58.840 I've got a few other

00:20:59.700 things to talk about that.

00:21:01.520 How many of you

00:21:02.360 have canceled

00:21:02.840 your travel plans?

00:21:03.920 I have canceled

00:21:05.780 all of my travel plans.

00:21:09.320 So in the comments,

00:21:10.740 tell me how many of you

00:21:11.780 just on your personal

00:21:13.100 individual decisions

00:21:14.360 about,

00:21:15.120 let's say,

00:21:15.720 summer vacations

00:21:16.680 or whatever,

00:21:17.980 how many of you

00:21:18.800 have canceled

00:21:19.520 all of your travel plans?

00:21:22.220 So I have.

00:21:22.920 I've canceled everything.

00:21:24.320 And I may,

00:21:25.580 you know,

00:21:26.440 I may change my mind

00:21:27.640 in a few months,

00:21:28.820 but I'm waiting.

00:21:29.800 You know,

00:21:32.700 somebody says

00:21:33.320 they know two people

00:21:34.320 who died from fentanyl,

00:21:35.660 as do I,

00:21:37.720 obviously.

00:21:44.840 Okay.

00:21:45.820 So that's the question

00:21:46.880 we'll see in the comments.

00:21:51.040 So,

00:21:52.660 let me get back

00:21:56.500 to coronavirus.

00:21:57.320 I want to talk about

00:21:57.820 some other things

00:21:58.540 just because too much

00:21:59.640 coronavirus

00:22:00.200 all at once

00:22:00.880 is too much,

00:22:01.520 but I'm going to

00:22:02.140 get back to that.

00:22:04.180 So,

00:22:05.740 apparently,

00:22:06.440 the reduction

00:22:07.120 in violence

00:22:07.980 in Afghanistan

00:22:08.840 worked.

00:22:10.920 I didn't see that coming.

00:22:12.600 Now,

00:22:12.800 they called it

00:22:13.200 a reduction

00:22:13.720 in violence

00:22:14.740 versus a ceasefire

00:22:16.380 because they knew

00:22:16.840 they couldn't

00:22:17.300 stop it completely.

00:22:18.840 But apparently,

00:22:19.540 the Taliban

00:22:20.000 held off

00:22:22.340 at least a little bit

00:22:23.320 in their violence

00:22:24.440 for a week

00:22:25.460 to get serious

00:22:26.220 about signing

00:22:27.680 a historic agreement.

00:22:30.260 So,

00:22:30.740 I guess there's

00:22:31.320 going to be

00:22:31.640 some kind

00:22:32.580 of an attempt

00:22:33.460 for a peace

00:22:34.580 agreement

00:22:34.980 in Afghanistan.

00:22:37.200 Now,

00:22:37.420 my take on this

00:22:38.240 is that none

00:22:38.800 of it's real.

00:22:40.260 I assume

00:22:41.240 that the people,

00:22:42.620 the Taliban

00:22:43.200 just would sign

00:22:44.060 anything

00:22:44.500 to have less

00:22:45.420 of us,

00:22:46.340 meaning the United States.

00:22:47.520 So,

00:22:48.380 I don't think

00:22:48.960 the Taliban

00:22:49.500 means it,

00:22:51.040 but at least

00:22:52.640 if it gets

00:22:53.140 some of our troops

00:22:54.200 out of there,

00:22:54.860 then it just

00:22:55.460 becomes their problem.

00:22:57.240 So,

00:22:57.660 there's certainly

00:22:58.140 a question

00:22:58.640 about whether

00:22:59.360 it would cause

00:23:00.600 some kind

00:23:00.980 of mass

00:23:01.540 internal

00:23:02.200 civil war

00:23:03.000 slaughter

00:23:03.440 that we could

00:23:04.100 have prevented

00:23:04.600 by staying,

00:23:06.120 but I think

00:23:07.200 we've just decided

00:23:08.100 it's not our

00:23:08.780 business anymore.

00:23:10.100 So,

00:23:10.360 I think that's

00:23:11.040 good news

00:23:12.360 for the United States

00:23:13.260 and potentially

00:23:14.740 devastating news

00:23:15.860 for Afghanistan.

00:23:16.560 and you can

00:23:18.640 decide how you

00:23:19.220 feel about that.

00:23:20.340 All right.

00:23:23.280 Chris Matthews

00:23:24.440 is in the news,

00:23:25.840 not for a good

00:23:26.580 reason.

00:23:27.980 So,

00:23:28.760 he's being accused

00:23:29.880 by journalist

00:23:30.940 Laura Bassett,

00:23:32.320 who had appeared

00:23:33.000 on his show

00:23:33.660 and I guess

00:23:34.340 when they were

00:23:35.160 sitting in the

00:23:35.660 makeup chairs,

00:23:36.980 he was saying

00:23:37.720 some things

00:23:38.280 that made her

00:23:38.960 uncomfortable.

00:23:40.100 And I'll,

00:23:40.980 I will paraphrase

00:23:42.160 that,

00:23:42.440 but basically

00:23:42.960 he was,

00:23:44.060 you know,

00:23:44.600 upon first meeting

00:23:45.780 her and

00:23:46.500 being in,

00:23:47.300 if you've never

00:23:47.940 seen the makeup

00:23:48.760 rooms for these

00:23:49.780 TV shows,

00:23:50.960 they're very small.

00:23:52.580 So,

00:23:52.840 imagine something

00:23:53.460 that's a very

00:23:54.300 small room

00:23:55.060 and often,

00:23:56.580 I don't think

00:23:57.380 I've seen more

00:23:57.880 than two chairs.

00:23:59.660 There must be

00:24:00.200 some that have

00:24:00.660 more.

00:24:01.340 So,

00:24:01.600 usually you're

00:24:02.140 pretty close

00:24:02.820 to the other

00:24:03.300 person.

00:24:03.980 It's usually

00:24:04.400 one makeup

00:24:05.000 artist on each

00:24:05.960 person who's

00:24:06.760 going to go

00:24:07.120 on air.

00:24:07.500 and so,

00:24:09.420 allegedly,

00:24:11.100 Chris Matthews

00:24:12.040 said something

00:24:12.520 about,

00:24:13.040 you know,

00:24:13.660 falling in love

00:24:14.400 with her

00:24:14.780 because of

00:24:16.180 her appearance

00:24:16.840 and that he

00:24:18.000 made other

00:24:19.320 kind of,

00:24:20.340 what she

00:24:20.720 considered

00:24:21.180 creepy references

00:24:22.300 to her makeup

00:24:23.120 and her appearance. 0.93

00:24:23.820 Now,

00:24:25.680 there's no

00:24:25.980 accusation that

00:24:26.800 he metooed her

00:24:27.800 beyond the

00:24:30.120 way he was

00:24:30.600 talking that

00:24:31.200 made her

00:24:31.500 uncomfortable.

00:24:32.360 He wasn't

00:24:32.840 hitting on her 0.92

00:24:33.920 in some

00:24:35.260 explicit way.

00:24:36.960 He was being

00:24:38.060 a 74-year-old

00:24:39.360 guy who used

00:24:40.340 to talk that

00:24:40.960 way and doesn't

00:24:41.860 know that he

00:24:42.320 can't do it

00:24:42.800 anymore.

00:24:43.780 I mean,

00:24:44.080 that's basically

00:24:44.760 the whole story.

00:24:45.900 But the

00:24:46.320 interesting part

00:24:46.900 about this

00:24:47.280 really doesn't

00:24:47.860 have anything

00:24:48.200 to do with

00:24:48.600 Chris Matthews

00:24:49.260 and I hope

00:24:50.300 he comes out

00:24:50.760 fine.

00:24:51.280 I have no

00:24:51.720 ill will

00:24:52.200 for Chris

00:24:53.320 Matthews.

00:24:55.040 I think he's

00:24:55.980 a product of

00:24:56.640 his time

00:24:57.300 and his

00:24:57.660 upbringing.

00:24:58.340 That's not

00:24:58.680 an excuse.

00:25:00.180 I'm not

00:25:00.620 excusing him.

00:25:02.280 I'm just

00:25:02.640 explaining.

00:25:03.740 The context

00:25:04.300 matters.

00:25:05.680 And he's

00:25:07.020 got a blind

00:25:07.800 spot,

00:25:08.900 I would say,

00:25:10.640 because he

00:25:11.420 doesn't give

00:25:12.080 me the

00:25:12.440 impression,

00:25:13.320 based on

00:25:13.840 watching him

00:25:14.500 for years

00:25:14.920 and years

00:25:15.220 and years,

00:25:15.780 I don't get

00:25:16.680 the impression

00:25:17.260 that if he

00:25:18.280 knew he

00:25:18.820 were making

00:25:19.300 somebody

00:25:19.780 unhappy,

00:25:20.380 he'd keep

00:25:20.780 doing it.

00:25:22.000 So you have

00:25:22.720 to assume

00:25:23.080 that there's

00:25:23.420 sort of a

00:25:23.940 blind spot

00:25:24.740 situation

00:25:25.680 going on

00:25:26.220 here.

00:25:27.180 So it's

00:25:27.680 hard for

00:25:28.020 me to

00:25:28.380 get too

00:25:30.440 hateful

00:25:31.100 or,

00:25:31.960 I don't

00:25:32.340 know,

00:25:32.600 get on

00:25:32.960 my high

00:25:33.380 horse

00:25:33.700 about

00:25:34.080 somebody

00:25:34.560 who's

00:25:34.920 just

00:25:35.120 got a

00:25:35.360 blind

00:25:35.580 spot

00:25:35.960 that got

00:25:37.580 fixed,

00:25:38.160 I'm sure.

00:25:39.260 My guess

00:25:40.020 is that

00:25:41.220 whatever

00:25:41.680 way Chris

00:25:42.880 Matthews

00:25:43.440 used to

00:25:44.120 behave,

00:25:45.280 probably

00:25:46.280 it's not

00:25:46.740 happening

00:25:47.080 anymore.

00:25:48.000 Because I

00:25:48.360 think he's

00:25:48.720 now

00:25:48.940 informed,

00:25:50.440 very

00:25:50.800 informed,

00:25:51.800 of how

00:25:52.540 it might

00:25:52.940 be received

00:25:53.740 by other

00:25:54.260 people.

00:25:55.260 So there's

00:25:57.040 that.

00:25:58.140 But he's

00:25:59.500 74 years

00:26:00.300 old and

00:26:00.980 there's

00:26:01.760 something about

00:26:02.260 this story

00:26:02.700 that borders

00:26:03.820 on elder

00:26:04.540 abuse.

00:26:06.780 Kind of.

00:26:08.260 Because it's

00:26:09.220 hard to

00:26:09.600 separate what

00:26:10.760 he's saying

00:26:11.420 and the way

00:26:12.220 he was

00:26:12.600 alleged to

00:26:13.600 have act

00:26:14.240 from his

00:26:15.520 age.

00:26:17.060 It's

00:26:17.480 hard to

00:26:17.840 separate

00:26:18.720 those things

00:26:19.400 because if

00:26:21.100 you were

00:26:21.360 35 I

00:26:22.200 just don't

00:26:22.620 know if

00:26:22.860 it would

00:26:23.000 be

00:26:23.120 happening.

00:26:24.140 And

00:26:24.200 frankly

00:26:24.580 here's a

00:26:27.100 thought

00:26:28.300 experiment.

00:26:29.840 If Chris

00:26:30.420 Matthews had

00:26:31.080 been a

00:26:31.440 younger,

00:26:32.200 more

00:26:32.960 attractive

00:26:33.500 man and

00:26:35.660 he said

00:26:36.000 exactly the

00:26:36.780 same stuff,

00:26:39.240 would the

00:26:40.040 response have

00:26:41.460 been this?

00:26:41.940 I know

00:26:44.660 I'm going

00:26:44.900 to get in

00:26:45.220 trouble for

00:26:45.640 this.

00:26:46.140 Probably

00:26:46.380 get in

00:26:46.660 trouble for

00:26:47.060 this.

00:26:47.400 It's just

00:26:47.740 a thought

00:26:48.060 experiment.

00:26:49.020 I'm not

00:26:49.400 recommending

00:26:50.000 anything.

00:26:50.600 I'm not

00:26:50.780 suggesting

00:26:51.160 anything.

00:26:51.780 I'm certainly

00:26:53.100 not softening

00:26:53.980 or apologizing

00:26:55.020 for Chris

00:26:56.260 Matthews in

00:26:56.820 any way.

00:26:57.120 That's just

00:26:57.460 for him to

00:26:58.040 do.

00:26:58.780 I'm not

00:26:59.300 interested.

00:27:00.800 But you

00:27:02.560 have to,

00:27:03.320 and here's the

00:27:04.000 blind spot I'm

00:27:04.600 talking about.

00:27:05.660 If you're

00:27:06.320 Chris Matthews

00:27:07.060 and you've

00:27:07.360 been famous

00:27:08.100 for a long

00:27:08.760 time,

00:27:10.100 he's probably

00:27:10.980 used to

00:27:11.480 people

00:27:11.740 reacting to

00:27:12.640 him in a

00:27:13.540 certain way

00:27:14.080 for a long

00:27:14.700 time,

00:27:15.260 and he's

00:27:16.120 not that

00:27:16.480 guy anymore.

00:27:18.080 So I

00:27:18.740 think that's

00:27:19.040 part of the

00:27:19.380 blind spot.

00:27:20.080 Anyway,

00:27:21.660 the big

00:27:22.840 question in

00:27:23.380 politics is

00:27:23.940 what if

00:27:24.220 Biden wins

00:27:24.780 in South

00:27:25.160 Carolina,

00:27:25.820 which apparently

00:27:26.360 he's going

00:27:26.840 to,

00:27:27.560 is that

00:27:28.060 going to

00:27:28.400 reinvigorate

00:27:29.020 his campaign?

00:27:30.240 Will it?

00:27:31.380 Will it

00:27:32.040 reinvigorate

00:27:32.740 his campaign?

00:27:35.260 Well,

00:27:35.800 I think it

00:27:36.200 will,

00:27:37.120 in the sense

00:27:37.780 that the

00:27:38.360 news media

00:27:39.080 tells us

00:27:40.420 what to

00:27:40.780 think about

00:27:41.260 all this

00:27:41.600 stuff.

00:27:42.360 And I

00:27:42.560 think the

00:27:42.880 news media

00:27:43.380 of course

00:27:43.840 likes a

00:27:44.300 horse race.

00:27:44.940 Everybody

00:27:45.180 says that.

00:27:46.080 They want

00:27:46.580 some action.

00:27:48.100 They want

00:27:48.360 a good

00:27:48.620 matchup.

00:27:49.220 They want

00:27:49.460 a good

00:27:49.720 fight.

00:27:50.680 So I

00:27:51.020 think the

00:27:51.380 media will

00:27:51.900 be promoting

00:27:53.040 Biden as

00:27:54.520 more of a

00:27:55.880 potential winner

00:27:56.660 of the

00:27:57.600 nomination than

00:27:58.520 maybe he

00:27:59.080 should be.

00:28:00.480 So,

00:28:01.680 yes, I

00:28:02.360 think it

00:28:02.660 will change

00:28:03.100 the race.

00:28:04.420 Might only

00:28:05.140 last a few

00:28:05.740 days until

00:28:06.380 Super Tuesday,

00:28:07.320 and then

00:28:07.640 everything will

00:28:08.080 change again.

00:28:08.600 But yeah,

00:28:10.000 at least the

00:28:10.620 way it's

00:28:10.880 reported will

00:28:11.580 be that it

00:28:12.460 makes a

00:28:12.780 difference.

00:28:13.440 Now, here's

00:28:13.920 the interesting

00:28:14.360 thing about

00:28:14.960 Biden.

00:28:16.400 If you

00:28:17.160 imagine that

00:28:18.200 the real

00:28:18.700 powers that

00:28:20.100 be are,

00:28:20.800 let's say,

00:28:22.000 tribal,

00:28:23.620 and let's

00:28:24.000 say that

00:28:24.360 there's a

00:28:24.960 Hillary Clinton

00:28:25.880 tribe,

00:28:27.700 a group of

00:28:28.700 people who

00:28:29.580 support Hillary 0.99

00:28:30.380 Clinton and

00:28:31.300 have some,

00:28:32.200 maybe, in

00:28:33.300 some cases,

00:28:33.860 financial or

00:28:34.940 psychological

00:28:35.520 interest there,

00:28:38.080 and that

00:28:39.720 they would

00:28:40.020 like to have

00:28:40.580 as much

00:28:40.900 control over

00:28:41.520 the government

00:28:41.940 as possible,

00:28:43.280 right?

00:28:43.840 Now, you

00:28:44.220 can imagine

00:28:44.700 if you want

00:28:45.160 to take your

00:28:45.580 conspiracy theories,

00:28:47.060 or maybe they

00:28:47.700 aren't, to

00:28:48.820 another level,

00:28:49.520 you can say,

00:28:49.880 well, there's

00:28:50.280 also an

00:28:51.080 intelligence

00:28:51.960 services tribe,

00:28:54.660 people who

00:28:55.280 loosely are on

00:28:56.380 the same team

00:28:57.220 and act in a

00:28:58.420 coordinated way,

00:28:59.740 even if they

00:29:00.160 don't coordinate

00:29:01.200 explicitly,

00:29:02.620 to get sort

00:29:03.340 of an outcome

00:29:03.820 that they

00:29:04.360 want,

00:29:04.960 maybe the

00:29:05.440 Russia collusion

00:29:06.540 story was

00:29:07.200 about that.

00:29:08.520 So you

00:29:08.840 start seeing

00:29:09.300 the world

00:29:09.740 as tribes.

00:29:11.900 There might

00:29:12.500 be a tribe

00:29:13.160 that's very

00:29:13.640 pro-Israel,

00:29:14.640 there might

00:29:14.860 be a tribe

00:29:15.900 that wants

00:29:17.320 this or that.

00:29:19.480 But if you

00:29:20.160 see the world

00:29:20.600 as tribes,

00:29:21.580 and then you

00:29:22.040 see the

00:29:22.680 political system

00:29:24.100 as sort of

00:29:24.660 the theater

00:29:25.920 that the

00:29:26.920 public sees,

00:29:27.800 but the real

00:29:28.240 power is these

00:29:29.120 tribal influences

00:29:30.700 over the

00:29:31.240 politics,

00:29:32.540 then,

00:29:32.920 and by

00:29:33.720 the way,

00:29:34.060 this is

00:29:35.400 pretty close

00:29:35.960 to how I

00:29:36.400 see the

00:29:36.680 world.

00:29:37.560 It's not

00:29:38.180 the only

00:29:38.640 thing happening,

00:29:39.620 but it's

00:29:39.940 one of those

00:29:40.520 filters I

00:29:41.140 find useful.

00:29:42.840 And to

00:29:43.600 extend that,

00:29:45.080 who would

00:29:45.500 the Hillary

00:29:46.080 Clinton

00:29:46.600 tribe,

00:29:47.900 let's say

00:29:48.360 a lot of

00:29:49.220 deep state

00:29:49.740 people working

00:29:50.500 in the

00:29:50.720 government,

00:29:51.420 ex-Obama

00:29:51.980 people,

00:29:52.500 etc.,

00:29:53.260 who would

00:29:53.800 they most

00:29:54.320 like to

00:29:54.840 see as

00:29:55.340 president?

00:29:56.540 Well,

00:29:56.940 they'd like

00:29:57.240 to see

00:29:57.560 somebody who's

00:29:58.260 on their

00:29:58.880 team,

00:29:59.560 per se.

00:30:00.360 They'd like

00:30:00.840 to see

00:30:01.160 somebody who

00:30:01.620 has policies

00:30:02.260 that they

00:30:02.640 like.

00:30:03.800 Well,

00:30:04.100 I don't

00:30:04.460 think that's

00:30:05.620 the real

00:30:06.420 driving force.

00:30:08.240 If you

00:30:08.920 imagine that

00:30:09.580 there are

00:30:09.940 tribes,

00:30:11.620 that there's

00:30:12.180 a Clinton

00:30:12.780 tribe,

00:30:13.840 I think

00:30:14.800 they want

00:30:15.160 power.

00:30:16.800 Power in

00:30:17.640 all the

00:30:17.980 ways that

00:30:18.440 it matters.

00:30:19.440 Money,

00:30:20.040 influence,

00:30:20.600 connections,

00:30:21.380 all that sort

00:30:21.960 of thing.

00:30:22.900 And if you

00:30:23.600 believe that's

00:30:24.200 true,

00:30:24.620 who would

00:30:24.920 be their

00:30:25.300 favorite

00:30:25.800 candidate?

00:30:26.360 Because the

00:30:27.460 thing is,

00:30:28.380 they wouldn't

00:30:28.940 want a

00:30:29.300 candidate who

00:30:30.560 was strong

00:30:31.660 on his

00:30:33.200 or her

00:30:33.960 own.

00:30:35.240 Well,

00:30:35.540 let me be

00:30:35.900 specific.

00:30:37.060 Would the

00:30:37.520 Clinton tribe,

00:30:40.020 if such a

00:30:40.840 thing exists,

00:30:42.420 would they

00:30:42.880 favor a

00:30:44.200 Bloomberg

00:30:44.880 presidency?

00:30:46.840 Because they

00:30:47.600 might be

00:30:47.940 quite compatible

00:30:48.660 with his

00:30:49.160 policies.

00:30:50.620 So Bloomberg

00:30:51.120 has policies

00:30:52.020 that the

00:30:52.900 Clinton

00:30:53.200 lovers would 0.70

00:30:54.540 like.

00:30:54.900 would they

00:30:55.920 support him

00:30:56.560 as I

00:30:57.940 say no.

00:30:59.740 And here's

00:31:00.180 why.

00:31:01.260 Because you

00:31:01.860 can't buy

00:31:02.380 him.

00:31:03.420 Well,

00:31:03.960 China probably

00:31:04.740 can buy

00:31:05.200 Bloomberg.

00:31:06.180 But if

00:31:06.940 you're the

00:31:07.280 Clinton

00:31:07.600 tribe,

00:31:09.600 you can't

00:31:10.240 really buy

00:31:10.680 him.

00:31:11.720 He's not

00:31:12.140 controllable.

00:31:13.160 There's just

00:31:13.540 nothing you

00:31:13.960 can do.

00:31:15.220 So even

00:31:15.760 though he

00:31:16.140 agrees with

00:31:17.120 pretty much

00:31:17.600 policy-wise

00:31:18.380 almost all

00:31:19.100 the things

00:31:19.420 they'd want

00:31:19.780 to do,

00:31:20.540 I don't

00:31:21.180 think he's

00:31:21.700 going to

00:31:21.940 get their

00:31:23.000 first choice.

00:31:24.000 I mean,

00:31:24.240 if he

00:31:24.480 becomes

00:31:24.820 a nominee,

00:31:25.440 they might

00:31:25.720 support him.

00:31:26.720 But in

00:31:27.620 the primaries,

00:31:30.500 I think they

00:31:31.200 prefer Biden.

00:31:32.640 And I think

00:31:33.340 the reason they

00:31:33.900 prefer him is

00:31:34.620 that they know

00:31:35.120 they can

00:31:35.560 control him,

00:31:36.800 partly because

00:31:37.680 of age,

00:31:39.000 partly because

00:31:39.740 he's an

00:31:40.200 Obama

00:31:40.840 acolyte,

00:31:41.800 and Obama

00:31:42.400 probably could

00:31:43.000 control him,

00:31:43.780 and that

00:31:44.460 gives the

00:31:45.740 Clinton tribe

00:31:46.480 some control.

00:31:48.040 But because

00:31:48.780 of his age,

00:31:49.700 you know

00:31:49.980 where I'm

00:31:50.220 going with

00:31:50.580 this.

00:31:51.540 His

00:31:52.100 vice

00:31:52.420 presidential

00:31:52.820 pick will

00:31:53.520 be the

00:31:53.840 big variable.

00:31:56.940 And I've

00:31:57.380 predicted it's

00:31:58.020 Kamala Harris.

00:31:59.920 And Kamala

00:32:01.480 Harris is

00:32:02.480 essentially

00:32:03.300 connected to

00:32:04.480 the Clinton

00:32:05.240 tribe,

00:32:06.700 meaning that

00:32:07.260 she has the

00:32:08.240 second-most

00:32:09.720 endorsements

00:32:11.120 from,

00:32:11.860 let's say,

00:32:13.740 important

00:32:14.180 Democrats.

00:32:15.960 First,

00:32:17.520 the first-most

00:32:18.520 endorsements

00:32:19.140 is Biden.

00:32:19.620 So if

00:32:20.880 you put

00:32:21.160 Biden

00:32:21.580 and

00:32:22.640 Kamala

00:32:24.000 Harris

00:32:24.320 together,

00:32:24.880 first of all,

00:32:25.320 they're a pretty

00:32:25.820 strong package.

00:32:26.780 I would say

00:32:27.120 that would

00:32:27.380 be a good

00:32:28.760 candidacy to

00:32:29.880 run against

00:32:30.280 the president.

00:32:30.880 I think

00:32:31.100 everybody would

00:32:31.620 lose against

00:32:32.120 Trump,

00:32:32.540 but it would

00:32:32.960 be a stronger

00:32:33.540 package.

00:32:34.560 Bloomberg

00:32:34.960 plus anybody

00:32:36.260 would be a

00:32:36.800 strong package

00:32:37.440 too.

00:32:40.080 So

00:32:40.560 here's my

00:32:42.180 prediction.

00:32:43.480 Apparently,

00:32:44.080 the superdelegates

00:32:44.980 have said by

00:32:45.960 a very high

00:32:47.140 majority that

00:32:47.880 they do not

00:32:48.540 plan to

00:32:49.760 honor the

00:32:50.740 highest vote

00:32:52.500 getter if

00:32:53.180 it's not a

00:32:53.660 majority.

00:32:54.440 So it looks

00:32:55.160 like Bernie

00:32:55.740 is going to

00:32:56.600 come into

00:32:57.440 the convention,

00:32:58.980 the Democratic

00:32:59.440 convention,

00:33:00.180 with the

00:33:01.520 most votes,

00:33:02.400 but not over

00:33:02.920 50%,

00:33:03.700 which allows

00:33:05.100 them by

00:33:05.580 their rules

00:33:06.260 to,

00:33:07.340 after the

00:33:07.660 first vote,

00:33:08.360 the superdelegates

00:33:09.240 can get involved,

00:33:10.640 and they've

00:33:11.420 already said that

00:33:12.100 they're not

00:33:12.440 going to

00:33:13.180 automatically

00:33:14.160 elect

00:33:16.020 Bernie.

00:33:17.140 And I

00:33:18.680 think they

00:33:19.080 all know

00:33:19.480 that it

00:33:19.780 would be

00:33:20.020 a death

00:33:20.400 sentence

00:33:20.860 for

00:33:21.260 Democrats,

00:33:22.720 because it

00:33:23.260 kind of

00:33:23.600 would be.

00:33:24.880 So what

00:33:26.340 is the

00:33:26.640 most likely

00:33:27.220 thing that

00:33:28.000 these people

00:33:28.520 have already

00:33:29.060 said they're

00:33:29.580 going to

00:33:29.960 ignore the

00:33:30.560 highest vote

00:33:31.300 total if

00:33:31.780 it's not a

00:33:32.260 majority?

00:33:32.900 What's the

00:33:33.300 most likely

00:33:33.860 outcome?

00:33:34.460 A brokered

00:33:35.020 convention,

00:33:35.980 and one

00:33:36.820 that's

00:33:37.080 compatible

00:33:37.500 with the

00:33:38.040 Hillary Clinton

00:33:38.740 tribe?

00:33:41.280 I think

00:33:41.980 that's your

00:33:42.360 best choice.

00:33:43.840 Now,

00:33:44.740 would

00:33:45.560 Bloomberg

00:33:48.020 contribute

00:33:49.700 his money

00:33:50.560 to getting

00:33:52.300 Biden

00:33:52.680 elected

00:33:53.180 if it's

00:33:54.100 not

00:33:54.360 Bloomberg

00:33:54.700 who gets

00:33:55.180 the

00:33:55.320 nomination?

00:33:56.700 Maybe.

00:33:58.100 Maybe.

00:33:58.720 Because that's

00:33:59.020 a big

00:33:59.240 variable.

00:34:00.040 If Bloomberg

00:34:00.720 goes all

00:34:01.360 in and

00:34:01.780 says,

00:34:02.060 yeah,

00:34:02.180 I'm going

00:34:02.420 to fund

00:34:02.840 all the

00:34:03.680 congressional

00:34:04.100 races,

00:34:04.760 I'm going

00:34:04.960 to fund

00:34:05.260 Biden,

00:34:06.140 I'm going

00:34:06.440 to do

00:34:06.640 all this,

00:34:07.440 well,

00:34:07.680 then Biden

00:34:08.120 looks a lot

00:34:08.620 stronger.

00:34:09.040 So if

00:34:09.740 you give

00:34:10.060 him a

00:34:10.360 young

00:34:10.780 female 0.86

00:34:13.220 senator,

00:34:14.300 person of

00:34:14.780 color,

00:34:15.280 vice

00:34:15.520 president,

00:34:16.900 and he's

00:34:17.340 controlled by

00:34:18.120 the Clinton

00:34:19.140 machine,

00:34:20.560 that feels

00:34:22.240 like where

00:34:22.660 it's heading.

00:34:23.760 Now,

00:34:24.280 of course,

00:34:25.440 you all

00:34:25.900 know my

00:34:26.440 hidden secret

00:34:27.200 interest,

00:34:27.820 which is my

00:34:28.240 original prediction

00:34:29.000 is that Kamala

00:34:29.620 Harris would

00:34:30.580 be the

00:34:31.280 candidate

00:34:32.580 for the

00:34:34.420 Democrats.

00:34:35.280 She obviously 0.83

00:34:35.800 has suspended

00:34:37.000 her campaign,

00:34:37.640 and therefore

00:34:38.180 most people

00:34:38.900 would say,

00:34:39.320 well,

00:34:39.520 Scott,

00:34:39.860 you're very

00:34:40.360 wrong about

00:34:40.840 that.

00:34:41.460 She didn't

00:34:41.860 even make

00:34:42.240 it into

00:34:42.540 the final

00:34:43.060 eight or

00:34:43.900 whatever it

00:34:44.280 is.

00:34:45.760 But we're

00:34:46.880 not done

00:34:47.340 yet.

00:34:48.300 We're not

00:34:48.680 done yet.

00:34:49.980 And if I

00:34:51.140 were to put

00:34:51.980 money today

00:34:53.660 on the most

00:34:54.800 likely outcome,

00:34:56.680 it's this.

00:34:58.720 The most

00:34:59.640 likely outcome

00:35:00.360 is Biden

00:35:01.420 getting the

00:35:02.120 nomination in

00:35:03.080 a brokered

00:35:03.580 convention,

00:35:04.880 having already

00:35:05.800 named or about

00:35:06.720 to name,

00:35:07.180 because we

00:35:09.220 could suspect

00:35:09.800 it's going

00:35:10.180 to happen

00:35:10.420 before it

00:35:10.880 happens,

00:35:11.980 Kamala Harris,

00:35:12.840 or somebody

00:35:13.580 as good.

00:35:14.400 It doesn't

00:35:14.800 have to be

00:35:15.300 Kamala Harris,

00:35:15.920 but it could

00:35:16.240 be somebody

00:35:16.780 who has a

00:35:18.160 lot of the

00:35:18.460 same qualities.

00:35:20.360 So that's

00:35:20.740 my prediction.

00:35:21.720 But it's

00:35:22.340 probably no

00:35:22.760 more than

00:35:23.240 20% likely,

00:35:25.580 and the

00:35:25.760 other

00:35:26.560 likelihoods

00:35:27.180 are small

00:35:27.540 too.

00:35:27.740 I saw

00:35:31.580 Tom Cotton

00:35:32.240 tweeted,

00:35:33.660 Senator Tom

00:35:34.380 Cotton,

00:35:34.920 that he

00:35:37.100 was bragging,

00:35:38.560 if you will,

00:35:39.920 and legitimately.

00:35:41.280 By the way,

00:35:41.840 when I say

00:35:42.240 people are

00:35:42.700 bragging,

00:35:43.880 that's not

00:35:44.700 an insult.

00:35:46.580 I am

00:35:47.380 pro-bragging.

00:35:48.860 If you did

00:35:49.700 something right,

00:35:50.960 you can tell

00:35:51.480 me about it,

00:35:52.780 and you can

00:35:53.240 be as unhumble

00:35:54.860 as you like,

00:35:55.660 as long as

00:35:56.140 it's honest.

00:35:57.540 As long as

00:35:58.120 you're willing

00:35:58.420 to tell me

00:35:58.860 that when you

00:35:59.200 do something

00:35:59.680 bad,

00:36:00.200 that it was

00:36:00.520 also bad.

00:36:01.800 So when I

00:36:02.860 say somebody's

00:36:03.520 bragging,

00:36:04.580 not an

00:36:05.320 insult,

00:36:06.420 as long as

00:36:06.940 it's true.

00:36:07.920 And I think

00:36:08.340 it's true in

00:36:08.760 this case.

00:36:09.720 Tom Cotton

00:36:10.220 said that he

00:36:10.720 called for a

00:36:11.320 travel ban

00:36:11.880 on January

00:36:12.500 28th.

00:36:14.120 He goes on

00:36:14.860 in his tweet

00:36:15.420 and says,

00:36:16.160 the quote,

00:36:16.700 experts said

00:36:17.520 it would

00:36:17.740 backfire.

00:36:18.980 Now those

00:36:19.620 same experts

00:36:20.320 admit it

00:36:20.860 saved lives.

00:36:22.480 The president

00:36:22.920 did the right

00:36:23.460 thing by acting

00:36:24.040 decisively.

00:36:25.660 So January

00:36:26.580 28th is

00:36:27.620 when Tom

00:36:28.180 Cotton called

00:36:28.860 for a

00:36:29.520 travel ban.

00:36:31.420 And so I

00:36:32.760 asked myself,

00:36:33.620 I wonder when

00:36:34.100 I called for

00:36:34.680 the travel ban.

00:36:36.200 And the

00:36:36.740 answer is

00:36:37.260 four days

00:36:38.040 earlier,

00:36:39.240 January 24th.

00:36:41.080 Now I saw

00:36:41.920 at least one

00:36:42.680 person on

00:36:43.300 social media

00:36:43.860 and I can't

00:36:44.320 remember who

00:36:44.680 it was.

00:36:45.160 Was it

00:36:45.420 Mike

00:36:45.620 Cernovich?

00:36:47.140 I can't

00:36:47.640 remember.

00:36:48.560 But somebody

00:36:49.260 else was

00:36:49.720 calling for a

00:36:50.320 travel ban

00:36:50.840 early.

00:36:51.300 And I'm

00:36:52.840 just curious

00:36:53.460 because those

00:36:54.400 of you,

00:36:55.760 if you're

00:36:56.220 just joining,

00:36:57.740 you're going

00:36:58.120 to be a

00:36:58.380 little confused

00:36:58.940 by this

00:36:59.320 conversation,

00:37:00.040 so I have

00:37:00.320 to give you

00:37:00.600 this context.

00:37:02.280 I've talked

00:37:03.240 often about

00:37:04.040 tracing the

00:37:04.800 influence,

00:37:05.720 tracing the

00:37:06.240 path of

00:37:06.700 influence.

00:37:08.100 And there

00:37:08.780 are some

00:37:09.140 ways that

00:37:09.900 you can

00:37:10.120 sometimes,

00:37:10.740 you can

00:37:11.680 identify choices

00:37:12.900 of words or

00:37:13.840 specific kind

00:37:14.620 of weird

00:37:14.980 language,

00:37:15.600 language,

00:37:16.140 and if

00:37:16.560 you use

00:37:17.020 that in

00:37:17.300 your

00:37:17.400 persuasion,

00:37:18.540 and then

00:37:18.860 you see

00:37:19.160 other people

00:37:19.640 using your

00:37:20.240 weird,

00:37:20.980 unique language,

00:37:21.980 you can infer,

00:37:23.200 but you don't

00:37:23.560 know for sure,

00:37:24.760 that probably

00:37:25.920 you're persuaded

00:37:26.620 because you

00:37:27.620 can see the

00:37:28.140 linguistic

00:37:28.820 fingerprints go

00:37:30.520 all the way

00:37:30.840 through.

00:37:31.500 Now in this

00:37:31.940 case, all

00:37:33.040 that's happening

00:37:33.540 is travel ban

00:37:34.440 or not a

00:37:34.880 travel ban,

00:37:35.400 so there's

00:37:35.660 no linguistic

00:37:36.400 fingerprints

00:37:37.260 whatsoever.

00:37:38.980 And I'm

00:37:39.760 asking the

00:37:40.180 question because

00:37:40.800 I don't know.

00:37:42.580 Were there

00:37:43.180 other people

00:37:43.980 publicly

00:37:45.280 and vigorously

00:37:47.200 asking for an

00:37:48.080 end to a

00:37:48.700 travel ban

00:37:49.240 before I

00:37:50.320 did?

00:37:51.960 So that's

00:37:52.700 the question

00:37:53.060 for you in

00:37:53.680 the comments.

00:37:54.620 Send me a

00:37:55.100 DM or

00:37:55.820 tweet at me

00:37:57.560 if you know.

00:37:59.280 So let me

00:38:00.020 know if

00:38:00.820 somebody called

00:38:01.380 for it before

00:38:02.500 January 24th

00:38:04.840 when I did.

00:38:05.800 All right.

00:38:11.480 Bill

00:38:11.960 Crystal is

00:38:13.200 pushing a

00:38:14.220 new hoax.

00:38:14.720 It's hoax

00:38:15.400 8 and it

00:38:16.680 looks like

00:38:17.000 it's going

00:38:17.300 to be a

00:38:17.580 big one.

00:38:18.880 And it

00:38:19.060 looks like

00:38:19.440 hoax 8

00:38:20.020 is going

00:38:23.140 to spread

00:38:24.440 faster than

00:38:25.060 the coronavirus

00:38:25.720 well it

00:38:26.240 already has

00:38:26.800 because it's

00:38:27.340 gone to

00:38:27.720 millions in

00:38:28.360 this country

00:38:28.800 already.

00:38:30.180 And here's

00:38:30.720 the hoax.

00:38:31.640 The hoax is

00:38:32.580 that allegedly

00:38:34.180 President Trump

00:38:35.220 said that the

00:38:36.580 coronavirus is a

00:38:38.680 hoax.

00:38:40.640 Do you believe

00:38:41.720 that?

00:38:42.000 Do you

00:38:43.300 believe that

00:38:43.780 the President

00:38:44.380 of the United

00:38:45.000 States said

00:38:46.920 that the

00:38:47.320 coronavirus is

00:38:49.420 a hoax?

00:38:50.760 I mean do

00:38:51.260 you even have

00:38:51.820 to look at

00:38:52.280 the details?

00:38:53.840 Do you

00:38:54.160 really need to

00:38:54.700 even look at

00:38:55.220 the context?

00:38:57.160 On its

00:38:57.900 surface without

00:38:59.440 doing any

00:39:00.180 research

00:39:00.640 whatsoever,

00:39:02.200 don't you know

00:39:02.720 that's a hoax?

00:39:04.100 I mean really?

00:39:05.300 Isn't that

00:39:05.760 obviously a hoax?

00:39:06.920 Now what this

00:39:08.280 comes from is

00:39:08.920 that the

00:39:09.180 President did

00:39:09.860 say that the

00:39:11.220 way the

00:39:11.560 Democrats are

00:39:12.260 politicizing his

00:39:13.480 reaction to the

00:39:14.440 coronavirus, all

00:39:15.320 the steps the

00:39:16.460 government has

00:39:17.020 taken, that he's

00:39:18.540 saying their

00:39:18.900 reaction to it

00:39:19.920 is the hoax.

00:39:21.600 In other words

00:39:22.180 the hoax is

00:39:23.360 saying that the

00:39:23.880 President hasn't

00:39:24.580 done anything

00:39:25.280 or enough about

00:39:26.140 it when in fact

00:39:27.380 he has in his

00:39:28.200 opinion.

00:39:29.920 So the bad

00:39:31.740 people, the

00:39:33.060 Bill Crystals of

00:39:33.840 the world, and

00:39:34.800 by the way

00:39:35.260 you know I

00:39:38.720 always rail

00:39:39.420 against imagining

00:39:41.520 you know what

00:39:42.240 people are

00:39:42.640 thinking because

00:39:43.860 we're so terrible

00:39:44.580 at it, but I

00:39:45.740 can't watch Bill

00:39:46.840 Crystals do

00:39:47.480 anything without

00:39:49.060 thinking his

00:39:49.760 intentions are

00:39:50.500 actually just

00:39:51.180 evil.

00:39:52.580 I mean actually

00:39:53.700 evil.

00:39:55.000 Now are there

00:39:56.360 people who

00:39:57.000 actually have evil

00:39:58.100 intentions like an

00:39:59.060 actual sociopath or

00:40:00.600 a psychopath?

00:40:02.440 Because Bill

00:40:03.280 Crystal looks

00:40:05.680 exactly like a

00:40:07.520 sociopath.

00:40:09.260 Like there's

00:40:10.200 something deeply

00:40:11.000 wrong with him

00:40:11.860 and his, I

00:40:15.920 mean I think

00:40:16.640 when I see him

00:40:18.240 in public it

00:40:18.960 seems like he's

00:40:19.740 trying to harm

00:40:20.340 the country for

00:40:22.180 whatever personal

00:40:23.160 benefit, etc.

00:40:24.860 And I don't say

00:40:26.020 that about a lot

00:40:26.680 of people.

00:40:27.340 And I never say

00:40:27.940 that about a

00:40:28.440 president by the

00:40:29.180 way.

00:40:29.980 When Obama was

00:40:31.520 president it was

00:40:32.480 popular,

00:40:33.020 on the right

00:40:33.820 to say that

00:40:35.080 President Obama

00:40:36.560 hated America

00:40:37.460 and he was

00:40:37.980 trying to destroy

00:40:38.700 it.

00:40:39.400 Now that's

00:40:39.960 ridiculous.

00:40:41.880 One of the

00:40:42.560 things I believe

00:40:43.180 to be true is

00:40:44.000 that no matter

00:40:44.520 what kind of

00:40:45.320 evil, bad

00:40:47.920 person you

00:40:48.420 were, by the

00:40:49.540 time you become

00:40:50.240 president of the

00:40:51.080 United States,

00:40:52.000 the most normal

00:40:53.720 psychological

00:40:54.420 transformation would

00:40:55.760 be, well the

00:40:56.800 United States is

00:40:57.540 great.

00:40:57.900 if the United

00:40:59.640 States picked

00:41:00.340 you as its

00:41:02.140 leader, what

00:41:03.240 would you think

00:41:03.760 of the United

00:41:04.200 States?

00:41:05.280 Would you say,

00:41:06.000 well they picked

00:41:06.560 me as the

00:41:07.420 leader, but man

00:41:08.620 they're broken.

00:41:09.620 That United States

00:41:10.420 is a piece of

00:41:11.100 garbage.

00:41:11.840 But they picked

00:41:12.560 me as the

00:41:13.240 leader of the

00:41:13.780 garbage?

00:41:14.880 No.

00:41:15.920 No.

00:41:16.240 Not a single

00:41:16.780 person in the

00:41:17.380 world would be

00:41:18.100 able to have

00:41:18.540 that thought.

00:41:19.640 And if they

00:41:20.300 were that crazy

00:41:20.960 I think we

00:41:21.500 would have

00:41:21.800 detected it.

00:41:22.420 by the time

00:41:23.420 you are

00:41:23.840 selected by

00:41:25.280 your country

00:41:26.000 to protect

00:41:27.380 them and to

00:41:28.080 be their

00:41:28.480 leader, there's

00:41:30.340 no way in the

00:41:30.980 world that you

00:41:31.720 could have a

00:41:32.100 bad feeling

00:41:32.720 about the

00:41:33.280 people who

00:41:33.700 put you in

00:41:34.180 that position.

00:41:35.420 I mean, you

00:41:35.840 could have bad

00:41:36.340 feelings about

00:41:36.840 things, but

00:41:38.340 you're not going

00:41:38.800 to have a bad

00:41:39.440 feeling about

00:41:40.080 America once

00:41:42.140 America has 0.83

00:41:42.840 made you its

00:41:43.600 brand leader.

00:41:45.640 I just don't

00:41:46.440 think that your

00:41:46.900 brain can even

00:41:48.120 do that, unless

00:41:48.780 you're actually

00:41:49.440 damaged in some

00:41:51.000 way.

00:41:51.180 No normal

00:41:52.020 brain can

00:41:53.240 dislike the

00:41:53.820 United States

00:41:54.520 once you're

00:41:55.560 the leader.

00:41:58.480 So, anyway,

00:42:00.840 I won't assume

00:42:02.580 that I know

00:42:03.020 what Bill

00:42:03.380 Crystal is

00:42:04.240 thinking, but

00:42:04.880 I will say

00:42:05.320 that the

00:42:05.880 overall

00:42:07.000 impression by

00:42:08.580 all of his

00:42:09.140 actions are

00:42:09.740 that there's

00:42:12.580 something deeply

00:42:13.200 wrong with

00:42:13.700 him.

00:42:13.940 I mean,

00:42:14.180 actually,

00:42:14.860 sociopath,

00:42:15.960 kind of wrong.

00:42:16.800 I'm not

00:42:17.220 diagnosing.

00:42:17.940 I'm saying

00:42:18.260 that that would

00:42:18.900 be the impression

00:42:19.560 he leaves by

00:42:20.800 his actions.

00:42:21.440 We can't

00:42:21.800 know what

00:42:22.040 he's actually

00:42:22.440 thinking.

00:42:23.960 All right.

00:42:25.980 So, the way

00:42:27.980 Bill Crystal

00:42:28.900 spread the

00:42:30.400 hoax is he

00:42:32.600 said this.

00:42:33.360 He said that

00:42:34.080 the president

00:42:35.080 called the

00:42:35.760 concern about

00:42:36.880 the coronavirus

00:42:37.540 a hoax.

00:42:39.080 Didn't happen.

00:42:40.720 The president

00:42:41.320 never said

00:42:41.940 anything like

00:42:42.960 the concern

00:42:44.360 for the virus

00:42:45.300 is a hoax.

00:42:46.080 hoax, he

00:42:47.100 says he

00:42:47.840 hopes everything

00:42:48.380 will be

00:42:48.720 well, but

00:42:49.200 there's a

00:42:49.520 good chance

00:42:49.980 it could

00:42:50.340 spread and

00:42:51.300 become bigger.

00:42:52.540 That's just

00:42:53.100 a fact.

00:42:54.280 There's a

00:42:54.760 good chance

00:42:55.200 it will

00:42:55.420 spread and

00:42:55.860 get bigger.

00:42:56.660 He hopes

00:42:57.100 that that

00:42:57.500 won't happen.

00:42:59.000 Nothing

00:42:59.260 wrong with

00:42:59.620 that.

00:43:02.700 So, that's

00:43:03.460 the hoax.

00:43:03.940 So, I'm

00:43:04.920 playing an

00:43:05.360 experiment today.

00:43:06.640 So, you

00:43:06.900 may have seen

00:43:07.340 me tweet that

00:43:08.680 this new

00:43:09.240 hoax, hoax

00:43:10.020 eight, that

00:43:11.380 the president

00:43:11.860 called the

00:43:12.260 coronavirus a

00:43:13.080 hoax, which

00:43:13.520 didn't happen.

00:43:14.820 That hoax, I'm

00:43:16.940 trying to see

00:43:17.480 if I can kill

00:43:18.260 it early, because

00:43:20.260 the earlier you

00:43:20.980 get it, the

00:43:21.860 more chance you

00:43:22.440 have of

00:43:22.760 snuffing it

00:43:23.300 out.

00:43:23.880 And what I've

00:43:24.320 done is I

00:43:25.040 put the

00:43:25.440 provocative

00:43:25.920 idea on

00:43:27.200 Twitter that

00:43:28.420 the hoax

00:43:29.120 itself is a

00:43:30.460 virus that

00:43:31.560 will only

00:43:32.160 infect artists.

00:43:34.800 Because if you

00:43:35.560 look at it, it's

00:43:36.240 all the people

00:43:36.700 who are

00:43:37.020 writers who

00:43:38.740 seem to have

00:43:39.320 fallen for it.

00:43:40.900 Now, watch

00:43:41.580 and see the

00:43:42.600 paucity, the

00:43:43.740 lack of

00:43:44.440 engineers, lawyers,

00:43:48.000 scientists, and

00:43:49.200 economists who

00:43:51.440 buy into this

00:43:52.200 hoax.

00:43:53.800 Just watch

00:43:54.520 for it.

00:43:55.140 Every time you

00:43:55.820 see the hoax,

00:43:56.420 you're going to

00:43:56.720 see it a bunch

00:43:57.220 of times.

00:43:58.580 You're going to

00:43:59.140 see it on TV,

00:44:00.140 you're going to

00:44:00.400 see it on

00:44:01.160 Twitter a lot.

00:44:03.520 But click on

00:44:04.520 the profile and

00:44:05.980 find out if the

00:44:06.720 person is a

00:44:07.340 journalist, writer,

00:44:08.980 pundit, musician,

00:44:10.580 Michael Moore,

00:44:13.840 MSNBC host,

00:44:15.780 et cetera.

00:44:16.660 And so the

00:44:17.220 funny part,

00:44:18.460 sorry, my cat's

00:44:19.640 visiting, the

00:44:20.620 funny part will

00:44:22.160 be seeing if we

00:44:23.380 can shame them

00:44:24.460 off it.

00:44:25.540 I've never tried

00:44:26.460 this, but see if

00:44:27.240 we can shame them

00:44:28.020 off it by

00:44:29.200 demonstrating that

00:44:30.040 only artists are

00:44:31.220 susceptible to

00:44:32.980 the hoax virus.

00:44:34.500 We'll see.

00:44:35.400 It's just a test.

00:44:36.140 Speaking of

00:44:39.040 reprogramming

00:44:39.720 people, you

00:44:42.640 know, I've

00:44:43.080 made the

00:44:43.500 connection between

00:44:45.580 an idea virus

00:44:46.980 and an actual

00:44:47.620 virus.

00:44:48.560 And I've often

00:44:49.440 said that

00:44:49.880 terrorism, Islamic 0.66

00:44:51.980 terrorism, and

00:44:52.740 probably any other

00:44:53.380 terrorism, so

00:44:54.140 let's just call it

00:44:54.780 terrorism, is

00:44:56.320 like an idea

00:44:57.300 virus.

00:44:58.580 It has all the

00:44:59.400 qualities of

00:45:00.380 these physical

00:45:01.260 viruses.

00:45:03.120 And by that I

00:45:03.640 mean it is

00:45:04.980 transmitted by

00:45:05.880 contact.

00:45:07.060 You can't

00:45:07.820 easily tell who

00:45:08.680 has it and who

00:45:09.380 doesn't have it,

00:45:10.580 you know, the

00:45:10.980 thought of

00:45:11.700 terrorism to

00:45:12.460 actually do it.

00:45:14.000 It spreads

00:45:15.720 quickly, there's

00:45:16.580 no cure, it

00:45:17.320 affects individuals

00:45:18.180 differently, and

00:45:19.740 once it gets

00:45:20.320 inside your

00:45:20.880 borders, people

00:45:22.620 are going to

00:45:22.940 die.

00:45:24.360 Now, here's

00:45:25.300 why I think

00:45:26.860 this story has

00:45:27.640 more impact

00:45:29.400 in a

00:45:30.400 pre-suasion

00:45:31.320 indirect way

00:45:32.740 than we may

00:45:33.740 be noticing.

00:45:34.640 it will

00:45:35.880 become

00:45:36.340 increasingly

00:45:37.220 clear to

00:45:37.900 people that

00:45:39.220 an idea

00:45:39.800 virus, in

00:45:41.140 other words,

00:45:41.580 somebody who

00:45:41.920 has bad

00:45:42.320 intentions in

00:45:43.160 their head,

00:45:44.460 and an

00:45:45.420 actual virus

00:45:46.220 need to be

00:45:47.920 treated almost

00:45:49.120 the same way,

00:45:50.740 which means

00:45:51.760 quarantine,

00:45:53.260 closing borders,

00:45:54.960 vetting people

00:45:55.900 as much as

00:45:57.260 you can.

00:45:57.740 and I

00:45:59.260 think that

00:45:59.640 those two

00:46:01.020 ideas have

00:46:01.820 always been

00:46:02.200 treated as

00:46:02.740 completely

00:46:03.260 separately,

00:46:04.780 but because

00:46:05.400 of, especially

00:46:06.720 now that there

00:46:07.420 are a couple

00:46:07.780 people in

00:46:08.480 Mexico that

00:46:09.760 have the

00:46:10.220 coronavirus,

00:46:11.660 that immediately

00:46:12.660 makes you think

00:46:13.380 about border

00:46:13.920 security, because

00:46:14.820 do you want

00:46:15.520 infected immigrants 1.00

00:46:18.280 who are lovely

00:46:19.540 people?

00:46:20.640 You know, I'm

00:46:21.700 never one who

00:46:22.220 will speak ill of

00:46:23.220 immigrants.

00:46:23.620 I love my

00:46:24.260 immigrants.

00:46:25.440 Lovely people,

00:46:26.700 but it looks

00:46:28.200 like there are

00:46:28.620 going to be

00:46:28.900 more of them

00:46:29.480 who are

00:46:29.860 infected in

00:46:30.820 the future.

00:46:32.220 As soon as

00:46:32.980 that happens,

00:46:33.800 people are

00:46:34.180 going to start

00:46:34.800 equating in

00:46:35.420 their mind

00:46:35.860 border security

00:46:37.480 and this

00:46:38.420 physical virus,

00:46:39.500 the coronavirus,

00:46:40.560 and it's a

00:46:41.220 very small

00:46:41.860 leap from

00:46:43.260 that to

00:46:44.040 seeing internal

00:46:45.440 thoughts and

00:46:46.440 idea of

00:46:47.520 viruses as

00:46:48.220 the same

00:46:49.060 thing.

00:46:50.080 You have to

00:46:50.640 treat them the

00:46:51.060 same.

00:46:51.780 And here's my

00:46:52.300 question.

00:46:53.620 Why have we

00:46:54.480 never used,

00:46:55.340 or maybe we

00:46:55.860 have, and I

00:46:56.340 don't know

00:46:56.580 about it, but

00:46:57.380 is there a

00:46:57.960 persuasion lab

00:46:59.120 where we're

00:47:00.280 trying to cure 0.56

00:47:01.380 terrorists?

00:47:03.120 Is that

00:47:03.500 happening?

00:47:05.060 Because you'd

00:47:06.040 imagine that

00:47:06.640 somewhere in the

00:47:07.200 government, somebody

00:47:08.060 ought to be

00:47:08.480 working on that.

00:47:09.360 And let me

00:47:09.660 tell you how

00:47:09.980 to do it.

00:47:11.120 So you take a

00:47:11.920 bunch of

00:47:12.200 terrorists, and

00:47:13.600 let's say you

00:47:14.100 work on the

00:47:14.740 hardest cases.

00:47:16.740 Let's say

00:47:17.240 Guantanamo Bay.

00:47:19.260 Got a bunch of

00:47:20.100 terrorists in

00:47:20.620 Guantanamo Bay.

00:47:22.400 Why are we not

00:47:23.340 trying to

00:47:23.780 deprogram them?

00:47:25.300 Is it because

00:47:26.260 military doesn't

00:47:27.760 do that?

00:47:28.920 Is it because

00:47:29.740 we don't know

00:47:30.280 how?

00:47:31.500 Is it because

00:47:32.400 that's not the

00:47:33.380 purpose of

00:47:33.900 Guantanamo Bay?

00:47:36.180 Maybe that's

00:47:36.840 just not its

00:47:37.340 purpose, so

00:47:38.020 nobody even

00:47:38.760 thinks to try

00:47:39.540 that.

00:47:40.320 But here's how

00:47:40.900 you do it.

00:47:42.620 Now, I'm

00:47:43.420 going to ask

00:47:43.940 you that if

00:47:45.000 you're a

00:47:46.120 believer, and

00:47:47.420 you have a

00:47:47.820 religious belief,

00:47:49.080 doesn't matter if

00:47:49.800 it's Christian,

00:47:50.940 Muslim, doesn't 1.00

00:47:51.920 matter what it

00:47:52.360 is, I

00:47:54.400 would ask

00:47:54.800 you to turn

00:47:55.520 off the

00:47:56.240 live stream

00:47:58.600 now, because

00:48:00.080 what I'm going

00:48:00.500 to say in a

00:48:01.280 moment could

00:48:02.720 actually deprogram

00:48:03.820 your religion.

00:48:05.440 And I'm

00:48:05.820 pro-religion, so

00:48:07.220 I don't want to

00:48:07.660 do that.

00:48:08.600 I'm pro-religion,

00:48:09.620 but not a

00:48:10.080 believer.

00:48:11.460 And by that I

00:48:12.040 mean that it's

00:48:12.860 just so obvious

00:48:13.860 to me that the

00:48:15.000 religion filter on

00:48:16.320 life is very,

00:48:18.200 very positive for

00:48:20.100 massive amounts

00:48:20.880 of people.

00:48:21.920 And I'm in

00:48:22.640 favor of

00:48:23.080 anything that

00:48:23.540 works.

00:48:24.780 You know, if

00:48:25.340 this religion

00:48:26.180 works for you,

00:48:27.000 makes you a

00:48:27.380 better person,

00:48:28.360 gives you a

00:48:28.940 framework for

00:48:29.700 your life,

00:48:30.780 keeps you out

00:48:31.260 of trouble,

00:48:31.740 that's all good

00:48:32.360 stuff.

00:48:33.600 I mean, some

00:48:34.020 of the finest

00:48:34.520 people I've

00:48:35.100 ever met are

00:48:35.720 deeply religious,

00:48:36.720 and I don't

00:48:36.980 think that's a

00:48:37.600 coincidence.

00:48:39.360 So I'm very

00:48:40.020 pro-religion, but

00:48:41.440 I'm going to say

00:48:41.900 some things in a

00:48:42.840 moment that could

00:48:43.580 actually destroy

00:48:44.760 your religious

00:48:45.320 belief.

00:48:46.400 So I would

00:48:47.060 ask you, and

00:48:47.480 I'm serious about

00:48:48.100 this, I'm

00:48:48.840 completely serious,

00:48:50.100 if you don't

00:48:51.160 want to take

00:48:51.620 that risk,

00:48:52.540 because religion

00:48:53.360 is good in

00:48:53.920 your life, you

00:48:55.060 should turn this

00:48:55.680 off and not

00:48:56.160 listen.

00:48:57.080 All right, here's

00:48:57.620 what I would do

00:48:58.120 if I were trying

00:48:58.700 to deprogram

00:49:01.240 religious terrorists, 0.86

00:49:03.200 let's say an

00:49:03.680 Islamic terrorist.

00:49:05.660 The only way you

00:49:06.660 can do it is to

00:49:08.760 deprogram their

00:49:09.580 religion.

00:49:10.900 You have to do

00:49:11.720 that.

00:49:12.500 You can't really

00:49:13.640 deprogram just

00:49:15.080 probably.

00:49:16.320 Again, this all

00:49:17.200 would have to be

00:49:18.080 tested.

00:49:18.400 But my sense

00:49:19.480 of it is, you

00:49:20.300 probably would

00:49:20.900 not succeed

00:49:21.720 keeping their

00:49:23.220 religion intact

00:49:24.380 and just trying

00:49:25.520 to get rid of

00:49:26.060 that bad part.

00:49:27.580 I think that's

00:49:28.100 too fine a...

00:49:32.180 I don't think

00:49:33.240 the surgery could

00:49:33.920 be that fine.

00:49:34.980 So I think

00:49:35.520 instead, you

00:49:36.240 would have to

00:49:36.620 get rid of

00:49:37.020 their religion.

00:49:37.800 And that's why

00:49:38.240 I've asked you

00:49:38.900 to turn off

00:49:39.680 this broadcast

00:49:40.220 if you don't

00:49:40.940 want to have

00:49:41.380 anything about

00:49:42.040 your religious

00:49:42.600 belief form a

00:49:45.500 question in your

00:49:46.120 mind.

00:49:46.420 And it goes

00:49:47.500 like this.

00:49:49.660 I've never

00:49:50.380 known anybody

00:49:51.040 who has studied

00:49:52.340 the history of

00:49:53.460 religion and

00:49:54.860 all of the

00:49:55.560 different religions

00:49:56.260 and how they

00:49:56.980 formed and

00:49:57.780 who believes

00:49:58.920 what across

00:49:59.460 the world

00:49:59.920 who, in my

00:50:01.260 opinion,

00:50:02.760 believes that

00:50:03.520 it's true or

00:50:04.840 believes any

00:50:05.420 one of the

00:50:05.840 religions is

00:50:06.500 true.

00:50:07.500 Now, I don't

00:50:08.300 think any of you

00:50:08.820 agree with that,

00:50:09.420 right?

00:50:10.220 Probably 100% of

00:50:11.420 you just said,

00:50:12.540 well, that's not

00:50:13.180 true.

00:50:14.660 There must be

00:50:15.620 tons of people

00:50:16.760 who study the

00:50:18.080 history of

00:50:18.620 religion and

00:50:19.240 are still

00:50:20.080 religious.

00:50:20.680 In fact,

00:50:21.700 probably most

00:50:22.440 of you are

00:50:22.840 going to say,

00:50:23.480 I think most

00:50:24.100 people who

00:50:25.500 study it keep

00:50:27.160 their religion.

00:50:28.540 Well, I'm

00:50:29.080 going to make

00:50:29.340 a distinction.

00:50:30.800 Two kinds of

00:50:31.580 beliefs.

00:50:32.740 There's one

00:50:33.380 kind of belief

00:50:33.980 where you

00:50:34.780 really believe

00:50:35.440 it.

00:50:36.280 I mean, you

00:50:36.940 really, really

00:50:37.640 believe it.

00:50:38.460 It is literally

00:50:39.540 your truth.

00:50:41.280 But there's

00:50:42.600 another kind

00:50:43.220 of belief,

00:50:44.320 and I'll

00:50:44.560 call it a

00:50:45.080 lifestyle belief.

00:50:46.180 I wrote about

00:50:46.640 this in God's

00:50:47.400 Debris.

00:50:48.360 It goes like

00:50:49.040 this.

00:50:50.340 If you're going

00:50:50.980 to cross a

00:50:51.520 street and

00:50:52.420 there's a

00:50:52.840 truck coming

00:50:53.480 your direction

00:50:54.020 and you know

00:50:54.720 that walking

00:50:55.200 in front of

00:50:55.680 it would put

00:50:56.600 you in front

00:50:57.100 of the

00:50:57.380 oncoming

00:50:57.880 truck,

00:50:59.260 do you

00:50:59.920 say,

00:51:01.580 I don't

00:51:01.960 believe there's

00:51:02.440 a truck

00:51:02.760 there,

00:51:03.720 and walk

00:51:04.120 out in

00:51:04.380 front of

00:51:04.620 it?

00:51:04.700 No.

00:51:05.180 Your belief

00:51:05.700 in the

00:51:05.960 truck is

00:51:06.420 the real

00:51:06.840 kind.

00:51:08.920 Belief

00:51:09.320 that if you

00:51:09.860 walk in

00:51:10.240 front of a

00:51:10.620 truck,

00:51:10.920 it will

00:51:11.140 kill you, 0.98

00:51:12.000 is the

00:51:12.660 real,

00:51:13.240 true kind

00:51:13.800 of belief.

00:51:15.420 The other

00:51:16.060 kind is,

00:51:17.360 I'm going

00:51:17.760 to be

00:51:19.060 this religious

00:51:19.840 kind of

00:51:20.240 person,

00:51:20.700 I'm going

00:51:20.900 to buy

00:51:21.160 into the

00:51:21.540 lifestyle,

00:51:22.180 I'm going

00:51:22.400 to pray,

00:51:23.280 I'm going

00:51:23.820 to tell

00:51:24.220 myself it's

00:51:24.880 true,

00:51:25.260 I'm going

00:51:25.540 to act

00:51:25.880 like it's

00:51:26.300 true,

00:51:27.080 but it's

00:51:27.780 different.

00:51:29.220 That's a

00:51:29.820 lifestyle

00:51:30.200 belief.

00:51:31.300 And I

00:51:31.460 think there's

00:51:32.080 nothing wrong

00:51:32.520 with that,

00:51:32.800 I'm certainly

00:51:33.080 not insulting

00:51:34.040 it in any

00:51:34.500 way.

00:51:35.660 I believe

00:51:36.600 that if you

00:51:37.940 show somebody

00:51:38.480 all the

00:51:38.880 different religions,

00:51:40.080 it becomes

00:51:40.780 immensely

00:51:42.040 obvious that

00:51:42.860 they're all

00:51:43.240 invented by

00:51:44.060 people.

00:51:45.220 Sorry,

00:51:45.780 if you didn't

00:51:46.320 know that,

00:51:48.140 that's why I

00:51:49.220 asked you to

00:51:49.640 turn off the

00:51:50.320 stream.

00:51:51.800 Most people

00:51:52.340 don't know

00:51:52.700 that.

00:51:52.960 I would say,

00:51:54.280 I don't know,

00:51:54.820 80% of the

00:51:55.560 world,

00:51:56.460 80% of

00:51:57.240 believers would

00:51:58.560 not be aware

00:51:59.480 that if you

00:52:02.200 looked at the

00:52:02.660 history of

00:52:03.120 religion and

00:52:03.820 how they grew

00:52:04.440 and what they

00:52:05.340 have in common,

00:52:06.180 etc., it's

00:52:07.360 really obvious

00:52:08.100 thoughts that

00:52:09.080 they're just

00:52:09.420 invented by

00:52:10.080 people.

00:52:11.960 Once you

00:52:12.500 see that,

00:52:14.600 I think,

00:52:15.420 and this is

00:52:15.800 the hypothesis

00:52:16.540 subject to

00:52:17.260 testing,

00:52:18.040 it would move

00:52:18.640 some number

00:52:19.180 of people,

00:52:19.620 not all of

00:52:20.100 them,

00:52:20.660 from that

00:52:21.100 real kind

00:52:21.700 of belief,

00:52:22.240 the kind

00:52:22.520 where you

00:52:22.840 walk into

00:52:23.320 the front

00:52:23.740 of a truck

00:52:24.200 is really

00:52:24.620 going to

00:52:24.880 kill you, 0.98

00:52:26.060 to the

00:52:26.800 other kind

00:52:27.160 of belief,

00:52:28.360 where it's

00:52:28.720 a lifestyle.

00:52:29.580 Because you

00:52:29.980 can't really

00:52:30.400 ask a devout

00:52:31.580 Muslim who's

00:52:33.200 brought up in

00:52:34.160 the life to

00:52:35.320 get rid of

00:52:35.720 that.

00:52:37.020 You might

00:52:37.340 want to keep

00:52:37.720 the lifestyle,

00:52:38.920 just get rid

00:52:39.500 of the

00:52:39.760 literal belief

00:52:40.720 and move it

00:52:41.800 into more of

00:52:42.380 a preference

00:52:43.360 belief, if

00:52:44.140 you will.

00:52:45.160 Now, would

00:52:46.060 that work?

00:52:47.260 Don't know.

00:52:48.560 Maybe it works

00:52:49.160 for some, maybe

00:52:49.980 it doesn't work

00:52:50.460 for others.

00:52:51.320 Would it work

00:52:51.840 in conjunction

00:52:52.460 with other

00:52:53.000 things?

00:52:54.060 I don't know.

00:52:55.340 Might.

00:52:56.320 But the point

00:52:57.360 is that you

00:52:57.920 could create a

00:52:58.540 lab where you

00:53:00.640 had actual

00:53:01.380 terrorists, and

00:53:03.000 then you could

00:53:03.480 test,

00:53:04.160 you could hook

00:53:04.740 them up to

00:53:05.340 brain monitors,

00:53:08.420 sensors, and

00:53:09.660 you could say,

00:53:10.200 okay, let's

00:53:11.880 test you with

00:53:12.800 a variety of

00:53:13.400 images based

00:53:14.260 on your old

00:53:15.020 belief, your

00:53:15.940 current belief

00:53:16.560 that you're a 0.87

00:53:17.000 terrorist, and

00:53:18.100 they'd probably

00:53:18.460 get happy when

00:53:19.220 they saw a

00:53:19.680 terrorist act,

00:53:20.640 for example.

00:53:22.300 Then you work

00:53:23.380 your tests, and

00:53:24.760 then you test

00:53:25.400 them again, you

00:53:25.920 put the brain

00:53:26.700 sensors on, you

00:53:27.560 show them the

00:53:28.180 same images, and

00:53:29.620 you see if

00:53:29.960 anything's

00:53:30.320 different.

00:53:31.640 So if it

00:53:32.460 worked, you

00:53:33.680 could move

00:53:34.100 somebody from

00:53:34.600 being excited

00:53:35.520 that there was

00:53:36.620 a terrorist

00:53:37.080 act, like

00:53:38.340 actually that

00:53:38.880 part of the

00:53:39.220 brain going,

00:53:39.760 yeah, a

00:53:41.120 bunch of

00:53:41.320 people got

00:53:41.720 killed, to

00:53:43.300 putting the

00:53:44.460 sensors on, and

00:53:45.340 now they think,

00:53:46.060 oh, God, that

00:53:47.660 looks like a

00:53:48.140 big mistake.

00:53:49.620 And I think you

00:53:50.340 can measure that

00:53:51.020 directly in the

00:53:51.640 brain.

00:53:51.860 thing.

00:53:53.440 So, are we

00:53:55.080 doing that

00:53:55.520 anywhere?

00:53:56.520 If I had to

00:53:57.420 guess, probably.

00:54:01.220 Probably somewhere

00:54:02.340 in the government, or

00:54:03.340 maybe it's another

00:54:03.980 country, somebody's

00:54:05.840 testing this.

00:54:07.340 And if they're

00:54:07.880 not, I'm pretty

00:54:10.220 disappointed in the

00:54:12.080 governments of the

00:54:12.680 world.

00:54:14.320 All right, so

00:54:16.280 there's that.

00:54:16.860 I think I had

00:54:19.920 only one other

00:54:20.600 thing I wanted to

00:54:21.320 talk about.

00:54:25.100 Transgender

00:54:25.540 sports.

00:54:28.180 This is for those

00:54:29.120 of you who

00:54:29.540 haven't already

00:54:30.000 tuned out.

00:54:30.860 So I want to

00:54:31.520 leave you with

00:54:31.940 just this one

00:54:32.620 thought experiment.

00:54:33.380 The way sports

00:54:35.440 are currently

00:54:36.160 organized, throwing

00:54:39.420 some transgender

00:54:40.600 athletes into the

00:54:41.840 mix, seems

00:54:43.900 terribly dangerous

00:54:44.880 in some cases, and

00:54:45.980 unfair, people

00:54:46.820 would say, to

00:54:47.540 women in other 0.98

00:54:49.620 cases.

00:54:50.620 But that's as

00:54:51.420 sports are

00:54:52.000 currently organized.

00:54:53.920 What if we

00:54:55.840 simply said, how

00:54:56.820 about everybody

00:54:57.260 plays on the

00:54:58.260 league that they're

00:54:58.820 capable?

00:55:01.260 That's it.

00:55:01.940 Just everybody

00:55:02.520 plays wherever

00:55:03.140 they're capable.

00:55:04.300 If you're a 0.88

00:55:05.860 woman and you 1.00

00:55:06.460 can play in

00:55:06.920 the NBA, okay.

00:55:09.120 Why not?

00:55:11.680 Now, the

00:55:13.220 reason that

00:55:13.680 people say, no,

00:55:14.340 no, no, this

00:55:14.760 is not fair, is

00:55:15.520 that women would 1.00

00:55:16.320 never be the

00:55:16.940 best in the

00:55:17.480 sport, for most

00:55:19.480 sports, I guess.

00:55:20.500 So people say

00:55:21.180 it's terribly

00:55:21.620 unfair.

00:55:23.100 Women would 1.00

00:55:24.100 not ever be the

00:55:24.940 best.

00:55:25.480 Now, I've

00:55:25.820 gotten rid of

00:55:26.420 the problem that

00:55:28.440 the transgender

00:55:29.200 athlete would be

00:55:30.460 too good, because

00:55:32.100 if you just rate

00:55:32.980 everybody by

00:55:33.700 ability, and you

00:55:35.100 can play in a

00:55:35.740 co-ed team if

00:55:36.520 that's where you

00:55:37.020 fall out, then

00:55:38.260 there's no worry

00:55:39.060 about transgenders

00:55:40.200 dominating the

00:55:41.020 sport.

00:55:41.400 They're just put in

00:55:42.060 the mix with

00:55:42.580 everybody else.

00:55:44.040 But it does have

00:55:44.980 this one problem

00:55:45.700 that would seem

00:55:46.760 terribly unfair to

00:55:47.700 women, because 1.00

00:55:48.920 they couldn't play

00:55:49.600 on a team with

00:55:50.440 just women if they 1.00

00:55:51.980 cared about that,

00:55:53.140 and they couldn't

00:55:53.920 have any stars.

00:55:55.740 And I would like to

00:55:56.740 put this thought

00:55:57.820 into the mix.

00:55:58.500 technology has

00:56:00.660 fixed that.

00:56:02.140 If you gave me a

00:56:03.340 choice of watching

00:56:04.720 Serena Williams

00:56:05.680 play a 110-pound

00:56:09.680 female that she's 0.98

00:56:10.980 going to absolutely

00:56:12.060 obliterate, and you 0.98

00:56:13.220 already know it before

00:56:14.060 you turn on the TV,

00:56:15.580 or Serena Williams

00:56:17.780 plays the number

00:56:18.700 200-ranked man,

00:56:21.580 which am I going to

00:56:22.680 watch?

00:56:23.860 I'm watching Serena

00:56:25.060 play the man every

00:56:25.900 time.

00:56:27.200 I think you would

00:56:28.400 have a similar

00:56:29.000 reaction, or at

00:56:30.540 least enough people

00:56:31.260 would, that

00:56:32.120 eventually you would

00:56:33.080 have some kind of

00:56:35.460 fairness.

00:56:36.200 Now somebody said

00:56:36.840 Title IX, you

00:56:37.840 know, goodbye.

00:56:38.940 I think you could

00:56:39.800 still be fair to

00:56:40.900 women by letting 1.00

00:56:42.820 them play on as

00:56:43.680 many teams as they

00:56:44.560 want, funding them

00:56:45.980 equally, making sure

00:56:46.880 they have the same

00:56:47.480 resources, etc.

00:56:49.660 But the teams are

00:56:50.660 just sometimes co-ed,

00:56:51.840 or all-the-time

00:56:53.020 co-ed, but you

00:56:54.240 don't always have a

00:56:55.120 situation where there

00:56:56.120 would be a woman on 0.98

00:56:56.840 the most elite teams,

00:56:58.620 one would assume.

00:57:00.480 So here's the thing.

00:57:02.120 Would Serena Williams 0.96

00:57:03.980 make as much money,

00:57:05.620 let's say, in

00:57:06.240 endorsements and

00:57:07.440 championship victories

00:57:09.560 and stuff like that,

00:57:11.040 would she make as

00:57:11.940 much money if she

00:57:14.220 played on a semi-co-ed

00:57:16.300 situation?

00:57:17.420 And the answer is

00:57:18.340 not the way it's

00:57:19.080 organized now, but

00:57:21.020 how hard would it be

00:57:21.820 to change it?

00:57:23.320 All you have to do is

00:57:24.420 say, you know, more

00:57:25.920 people are going to

00:57:26.540 watch Serena play the

00:57:27.620 200th-ranked man than

00:57:29.760 are going to watch two

00:57:31.020 12th-ranked men play

00:57:32.720 each other.

00:57:33.720 I think that's true.

00:57:35.920 So the only thing I'm

00:57:37.920 adding to this

00:57:38.500 conversation, so you

00:57:39.440 don't think it's the

00:57:40.080 same conversation over

00:57:41.120 and over, I see

00:57:41.820 somebody in the

00:57:42.300 comments saying that,

00:57:43.520 is that the use of

00:57:45.540 technology allows you

00:57:46.580 to watch the match you

00:57:47.860 want.

00:57:48.240 And if there were

00:57:49.700 ever, if ever there

00:57:51.440 was interest in

00:57:52.120 watching women play 0.80

00:57:53.100 sports, and

00:57:53.940 obviously there is,

00:57:55.840 it shouldn't be a

00:57:56.380 problem.

00:57:57.340 You can watch

00:57:57.960 anything you want.

00:57:59.200 All right, I'm just

00:57:59.800 going to put that in

00:58:00.340 the mix, because it's

00:58:03.200 a fun topic.

00:58:04.380 Somebody says,

00:58:05.220 Serena would get 0.98

00:58:06.080 crushed, Scott.

00:58:07.120 That is the dumbest

00:58:08.100 fucking thing I've

00:58:08.960 seen today.

00:58:10.300 Somebody said,

00:58:10.900 Serena would get 0.98

00:58:11.680 crushed by the 200-ranked

00:58:13.840 tennis player who is a

00:58:15.600 male.

00:58:16.400 That is a dumb,

00:58:17.740 dumb statement.

00:58:18.660 I'm sorry.

00:58:19.600 That's just so

00:58:20.200 fucking stupid. 0.85

00:58:21.640 Not because you're

00:58:22.580 wrong.

00:58:23.920 It might actually be

00:58:24.840 true that the 200-ranked

00:58:26.340 man would be Serena. 0.59

00:58:28.840 But you're arguing

00:58:29.940 about the 200 part.

00:58:31.920 If you have to go to

00:58:32.680 300, it's the same

00:58:34.000 fucking point.

00:58:35.320 All right?

00:58:36.000 So you need to up

00:58:38.040 your game a little

00:58:38.740 bit.

00:58:40.340 You need to improve

00:58:41.640 your argument game a

00:58:42.820 little bit better.

00:58:43.840 If you're arguing that

00:58:45.000 the 200 was the

00:58:46.360 wrong number, you're

00:58:47.300 just on the wrong

00:58:47.920 argument.

00:58:48.940 All right?

00:58:49.360 It's an example.

00:58:51.000 All right.

00:58:51.480 Sorry, I didn't mean to

00:58:52.180 swear there.

00:58:52.800 That's enough for today.

00:58:53.800 I'll talk to you

00:58:54.400 tomorrow.

00:58:54.640 All right.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 29, 2020

Episode 835 Scott Adams： #HOAX8, Travel Restrictions, Large Gatherings, Peace in Afghanistan, How to Cure Terrorism

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