Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 837 Scott Adams： Talking Turkey, Democrat's ＂B＂ Team, Coronavirus Predictions, Twitter Takeover

00:00:00.000 Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum. 0.97

00:00:06.860 Hey, everybody, come on in here. You're all still alive. Coronavirus hasn't gotten you yet. Stay strong. Stay with me. We will get through this.

00:00:20.800 All right. Before we begin, shall we begin on a good note, a positive note, the best note there ever was?

00:00:28.400 Yes, it's called the Simultaneous Sip, and all you need, all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:00:38.320 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:40.980 I like coffee.

00:00:42.660 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes absolutely everything better.

00:00:48.700 It's called the Simultaneous Sip.

00:00:51.080 Go.

00:00:51.360 Ah, prospects are rising, stock market is getting stronger, coronavirus is getting handled.

00:01:04.900 Yes, that was a good step.

00:01:07.820 Turkey seems to be getting rid of bad people.

00:01:14.480 Yeah, pretty good step.

00:01:17.420 Let's talk about the news.

00:01:19.580 All the news.

00:01:21.360 So, yesterday I tried my new equipment that you see behind me.

00:01:26.680 It's called Wirecast Gear, and it's meant to allow me to do split-screen, live-stream broadcasting.

00:01:36.820 But it has so many options for doing that that it's taken me literally months to figure out which ways to do it.

00:01:45.320 There are several ways to do it, and they all have one thing in common.

00:01:48.640 They don't work every time.

00:01:50.580 So, I spent $9,000 on this gear to solve one problem, which is that I could not reliably have two people up and hear them and see them and do an interview.

00:02:03.200 So, $9,000 and three months later, I have determined through trial and error and documentation and working with tech support that none of the at least three different methods for doing that work every time.

00:02:18.140 So, you can't really set up and schedule it with anybody who's notable if you have a technology that doesn't work every time, and we can't really say why.

00:02:32.540 Maybe it's because the version change or Skype upgraded.

00:02:36.300 It used to be compatible, but now it's not.

00:02:38.960 So, that was $9,000 of wasted money.

00:02:42.220 So, we probably won't be doing any interviews with that technology.

00:02:47.120 Anyway.

00:02:49.080 But, let's talk about some other things.

00:02:51.040 There's a little update on the Eddie Gallagher story.

00:02:55.040 He's the SEAL who was convicted for taking a picture with a dead soldier and posing with it, which is a big no-no in terms of military professionalism.

00:03:08.460 But, independent of the events in the story, which are less interesting to me, I would like to make the following, let's say, philosophical line in the sand.

00:03:23.400 And it goes like this.

00:03:25.800 Eddie Gallagher took part in a photograph that the public should never have seen.

00:03:33.820 But, Eddie Gallagher did not show the photograph to the public.

00:03:38.460 He showed it to, I don't know, a friend or something like that.

00:03:42.800 He did not, I don't believe he posted it on social media.

00:03:46.220 I believe his intention was that somebody personal to him would see it.

00:03:52.500 Now, would the person who he sent it to be offended by the picture?

00:03:57.380 Probably not, because he would have picked somebody who he knew would not be offended, presumably.

00:04:03.320 Now, that was his total crime, in my opinion.

00:04:08.460 At least in terms of the photograph part of the story.

00:04:11.460 The total crime was that he sent it to one person, I think one person or a few, privately.

00:04:18.320 I think that's what he should be, I think that's the only thing he should be accused of.

00:04:23.540 And would it have any impact on the world if one friend saw an inappropriate photograph?

00:04:31.280 And the answer is no.

00:04:33.060 So what Eddie Gallagher intended to do, he did it poorly because the photograph got out.

00:04:39.300 But what he intended to do was harmless, relatively.

00:04:44.500 You know, so you don't want anybody taking that kind of picture.

00:04:48.440 Obviously, it could have had an impact on the people who were local when it happened, the other military, etc.

00:04:55.200 So it's not trouble-free, but it's a small problem.

00:04:59.200 Once that photo became public, the small problem turned into really quite a serious one,

00:05:07.020 and one that somebody should go to jail for.

00:05:09.120 And I think the person should be the person who released the photograph.

00:05:13.720 So I think the person who should go to jail is the person who put that in the public.

00:05:20.240 And I'm going to say this as a general statement about photographs and quotes and jokes.

00:05:27.200 We should develop this standard. It doesn't exist.

00:05:31.440 Right now, we allow something really, really stupid to happen and destroy lives every day. 1.00

00:05:38.080 And it's just stupidity. 1.00

00:05:40.060 And it goes like this. 1.00

00:05:41.980 Two people are having a private conversation.

00:05:44.540 One of them says something that doesn't offend the person they're talking to

00:05:49.040 because they understand the concept, and maybe they're just not easy to offend.

00:05:53.420 But then they tell somebody.

00:05:54.620 They reprint the text.

00:05:57.440 They post the meme.

00:05:58.780 They tell you what somebody said.

00:06:01.040 And suddenly, the context has changed.

00:06:03.660 And now that innocent statement made by the original person,

00:06:07.620 innocent in the sense that it was never intended to hurt.

00:06:10.880 It was intended to be private.

00:06:13.140 But once somebody makes that public,

00:06:16.200 I feel super strong about this point.

00:06:19.600 They have to take responsibility for what happens from that point on.

00:06:23.140 But the person who broadcasts it should go to jail.

00:06:27.920 Not the person who said it to one person privately.

00:06:30.640 That's just bad.

00:06:31.780 That's bad.

00:06:32.560 You don't want it.

00:06:34.040 Discourage it, depending on the message.

00:06:36.280 But it's nowhere near, it's not anywhere near the amount of evil and badness

00:06:42.740 of the person who produced the picture for the public.

00:06:46.780 That's a level of evil that I can't tolerate.

00:06:51.600 All right.

00:06:52.600 So, with that said,

00:06:54.480 I'm 100% in favor of President Trump's,

00:06:57.940 let's say, generous treatment of Eddie Gallagher.

00:07:02.560 All right, let's talk about Oprah.

00:07:06.320 I swear, the simulation just keeps giving us little gifts.

00:07:10.260 You probably have all seen the viral video of Oprah falling down on stage.

00:07:15.600 I guess she had some heels on that were poorly designed, 0.95

00:07:19.420 and she actually tripped just over her own feet,

00:07:22.200 or slipped on them somehow,

00:07:24.120 and fell, got a little bit injured,

00:07:26.480 just ice her leg, doesn't look bad. 0.82

00:07:28.300 Now, there's nothing funny about somebody falling on stage,

00:07:32.620 because you've seen a lot of people

00:07:33.920 who've had serious injuries falling on stage.

00:07:37.080 There's nothing funny about it,

00:07:38.920 unless the moment you fall,

00:07:43.720 the topic you're talking about is balance,

00:07:46.720 because that's what happened.

00:07:48.860 Oprah was literally walking on stage alone,

00:07:51.400 just her on stage,

00:07:52.760 talking about how important it is to have balance,

00:07:55.520 and then she lost her balance and fell on her face on stage.

00:08:00.500 Now, again, she was a little bit hurt,

00:08:04.760 and that's not funny,

00:08:06.960 unless, unless she was talking about balance

00:08:11.840 at the time she fell,

00:08:12.840 and I'm sorry, Oprah.

00:08:14.580 I love Oprah.

00:08:16.240 No offense intended.

00:08:17.920 I'm sorry, Oprah.

00:08:19.280 Really, I am.

00:08:20.020 Well, it's a little bit funny, right?

00:08:24.380 I mean, let's reverse it.

00:08:26.220 Let's do the thing where you say,

00:08:29.400 okay, if that had happened to me,

00:08:31.420 if I had been talking about balance 1.00

00:08:33.720 and fell on my ass on stage 0.99

00:08:36.000 and hurt myself, 0.99

00:08:38.200 you know, but not badly,

00:08:39.360 you know, just need a little ice,

00:08:41.240 would I think that was funny

00:08:42.540 if people were laughing at me?

00:08:44.720 And the answer is, yeah, I would.

00:08:47.140 I would totally think that was funny.

00:08:48.800 I would retweet that myself

00:08:51.200 because that would be pretty hilarious, actually,

00:08:53.820 even if I were hurt,

00:08:55.020 as long as it wasn't that bad,

00:08:56.480 you know, just a bruise.

00:09:00.460 I would like to introduce a new law

00:09:02.240 I call the Adams Law of Amazon Book Reviews,

00:09:05.760 and it goes like this,

00:09:07.800 that if there's a book,

00:09:09.040 now this might not apply to other goods,

00:09:11.400 but this applies to books.

00:09:13.680 If there's a book that has over 100 reviews,

00:09:16.220 which means there are enough reviews

00:09:18.220 to assume it's not just trolls, right?

00:09:21.040 So over 100 means it's probably real people,

00:09:23.600 most of them anyway.

00:09:25.460 And over half of the reviews are five stars,

00:09:29.260 meaning that a lot of those 100 people

00:09:31.100 think it's a terrific book.

00:09:32.740 And I'm not talking about my books,

00:09:34.100 I'm just talking books in general.

00:09:36.360 If over half of them think

00:09:37.760 it's a five-star terrific book,

00:09:40.220 every one-star review 1.00

00:09:41.980 comes from a troll, an idiot, 1.00

00:09:44.320 or somebody with an agenda, 1.00

00:09:46.300 which could be the same.

00:09:47.660 They could overlap.

00:09:49.240 But I've never seen

00:09:50.640 what I consider

00:09:51.600 a legitimate one-star review

00:09:53.840 for a book.

00:09:55.840 Could be for other things,

00:09:57.320 because, you know,

00:09:58.280 tools are different

00:09:59.040 for different people, etc.

00:10:00.540 But a legitimate one-star review,

00:10:02.320 I've never seen it

00:10:03.180 on something that also had

00:10:05.420 more than half of them

00:10:06.620 five-star reviews.

00:10:07.560 So just keep that in mind.

00:10:10.780 Now, is it true

00:10:11.700 every single time?

00:10:13.180 Probably not.

00:10:14.300 But it's close.

00:10:16.220 If you look at one-star reviews

00:10:17.700 of books,

00:10:18.520 a lot of times it's obvious

00:10:20.000 they haven't read the book.

00:10:21.820 And sometimes they even say that.

00:10:23.980 There are one-star reviews

00:10:25.200 that I get all the time,

00:10:27.020 all the time,

00:10:28.240 from people who say

00:10:29.180 in the review

00:10:29.860 they haven't read the book.

00:10:31.920 And they say

00:10:32.680 there's something about me

00:10:33.600 that they hate.

00:10:34.760 So they give me

00:10:35.300 a one-star review.

00:10:36.120 It happens all the time.

00:10:36.840 Now, they don't last

00:10:38.220 because people complain

00:10:39.400 and get rid of them.

00:10:40.920 But a lot of the reviews

00:10:41.700 are just fake.

00:10:42.620 You should know that.

00:10:43.720 In other news,

00:10:45.320 big rich guy,

00:10:47.720 hedge fund guy,

00:10:48.640 Paul Singer,

00:10:49.940 is trying to oust

00:10:52.040 Jack Dorsey

00:10:53.280 from his CEO role

00:10:54.760 at Twitter.

00:10:57.500 The stock market

00:10:58.600 seems to like that

00:10:59.460 because Twitter stock

00:11:00.260 is up 8%.

00:11:01.460 Now, I always wondered

00:11:03.640 how long it would last

00:11:05.320 that Jack could have

00:11:06.240 two CEO jobs.

00:11:08.520 Simultaneously,

00:11:09.160 CEO of Square

00:11:10.920 and Twitter.

00:11:13.200 And I guess

00:11:13.660 as long as things

00:11:14.240 are going well,

00:11:15.440 that's fine.

00:11:16.740 But people are complaining

00:11:19.260 that Twitter's not making

00:11:20.180 as much money

00:11:20.740 as they think you should.

00:11:22.320 So at this point,

00:11:23.440 that becomes a target.

00:11:24.580 And I guess Jack Dorsey

00:11:26.300 has said that he's planning

00:11:27.220 to spend six months

00:11:28.180 a year in Africa

00:11:29.120 while running

00:11:30.700 two companies

00:11:31.380 in the United States.

00:11:33.300 You had to see

00:11:34.340 a little trouble coming,

00:11:35.580 right?

00:11:37.980 I don't have

00:11:38.900 any opinion

00:11:39.620 about whether Jack

00:11:41.360 could pull that off.

00:11:42.820 In other words,

00:11:43.560 could he successfully

00:11:44.620 run two American companies

00:11:46.980 while spending

00:11:47.580 six months a year

00:11:48.500 in Africa?

00:11:49.320 And the answer is

00:11:49.900 maybe.

00:11:50.680 I don't know.

00:11:51.760 He started up

00:11:52.860 two of the most

00:11:54.040 important companies

00:11:54.960 in the country

00:11:56.500 successfully.

00:11:58.360 Would you bet

00:11:59.060 against him?

00:11:59.560 if Jack had

00:12:02.780 been part of

00:12:03.580 one gigantic

00:12:04.880 billion-dollar company,

00:12:06.580 you'd say,

00:12:07.340 well,

00:12:07.840 maybe he got lucky.

00:12:09.440 Maybe he worked

00:12:10.080 with good partners,

00:12:11.580 which is getting lucky.

00:12:13.940 But if you're

00:12:14.920 part of two

00:12:15.960 that you were

00:12:17.940 part of the startup

00:12:18.940 and they're both

00:12:20.360 billion-dollar companies

00:12:21.400 and doing pretty well,

00:12:23.420 well,

00:12:23.840 maybe there is

00:12:24.500 something about you,

00:12:25.680 right?

00:12:26.260 I mean,

00:12:27.140 I wouldn't rule out

00:12:28.440 that Jack has

00:12:30.340 some talents

00:12:31.920 that maybe

00:12:33.440 Paul Singer

00:12:34.040 is blind to.

00:12:37.060 But I'm not sure

00:12:38.000 that Paul Singer

00:12:38.560 is entirely about

00:12:39.740 the money

00:12:40.340 in this case.

00:12:41.980 Because if you don't know,

00:12:43.280 Paul Singer is,

00:12:44.600 and correct me

00:12:45.240 if I'm wrong,

00:12:45.880 I believe he's

00:12:46.600 one of the wealthiest,

00:12:48.980 most active

00:12:50.080 anti-Trumpers.

00:12:52.300 So I believe

00:12:53.180 he's a Republican

00:12:54.120 anti-Trumper

00:12:55.280 type.

00:12:56.980 Would you want

00:12:57.980 somebody who's

00:12:59.120 anti-Trump,

00:12:59.980 but conservative

00:13:00.660 in this case,

00:13:01.820 to have more

00:13:03.400 control over Twitter?

00:13:06.020 I don't know.

00:13:07.000 Is that better

00:13:07.920 or worse

00:13:08.360 than whatever

00:13:09.500 the situation

00:13:10.260 is now?

00:13:11.540 It doesn't sound

00:13:12.300 good,

00:13:13.400 but I don't know

00:13:14.260 necessarily it's worse.

00:13:17.220 So that little

00:13:18.420 fight's going on.

00:13:20.580 We'll keep an eye

00:13:21.280 on that.

00:13:22.300 You know,

00:13:22.520 Twitter is not like

00:13:23.480 any other

00:13:24.280 product,

00:13:25.220 in my opinion.

00:13:28.360 And I don't

00:13:29.240 use Facebook,

00:13:30.260 so maybe,

00:13:31.580 I mean,

00:13:31.880 I use it just

00:13:32.460 to look at

00:13:33.220 other people's

00:13:33.800 photos,

00:13:34.280 but I don't

00:13:34.580 really look at

00:13:35.020 any political

00:13:35.500 stuff there.

00:13:37.200 It seems to me

00:13:38.180 that Twitter

00:13:39.180 is like the

00:13:39.940 brain of the

00:13:41.820 planet,

00:13:42.980 meaning that

00:13:44.020 if Twitter

00:13:44.660 doesn't like

00:13:45.340 something,

00:13:45.780 it's probably

00:13:46.140 not going to

00:13:46.540 happen,

00:13:47.800 meaning the

00:13:48.520 majority of

00:13:49.220 Twitter users.

00:13:50.280 And if the

00:13:50.740 majority of

00:13:51.260 Twitter users

00:13:52.060 do like

00:13:52.560 something,

00:13:53.380 it probably

00:13:54.060 will happen.

00:13:55.580 I think

00:13:55.960 Twitter is

00:13:57.320 the dog

00:13:58.280 that's wagging

00:13:58.940 the tail

00:13:59.460 at this point.

00:14:00.420 It's not,

00:14:01.380 I don't think

00:14:02.020 Twitter is

00:14:02.580 any longer

00:14:03.160 just people

00:14:04.360 talking about

00:14:05.260 things that

00:14:05.860 are happening.

00:14:06.600 That's how it

00:14:07.080 started.

00:14:08.400 But at this

00:14:09.160 point,

00:14:09.580 I think Twitter

00:14:10.200 is what's

00:14:10.760 making things

00:14:11.480 happen.

00:14:12.160 That's a big

00:14:12.960 difference.

00:14:14.220 So Twitter

00:14:15.140 isn't like

00:14:15.700 any other

00:14:16.340 American company,

00:14:17.220 and at

00:14:18.240 some point

00:14:18.820 we may

00:14:19.180 have to

00:14:19.520 recognize

00:14:19.860 that in

00:14:21.240 terms of

00:14:21.920 what the

00:14:22.760 public is

00:14:23.660 comfortable

00:14:24.020 with in

00:14:24.560 terms of

00:14:24.880 their board

00:14:25.220 of directors

00:14:25.700 and everything

00:14:26.120 else.

00:14:28.100 It wouldn't

00:14:28.940 be bad

00:14:29.560 to have

00:14:30.700 some diversity

00:14:31.580 on the board

00:14:32.480 of the

00:14:33.120 political type

00:14:34.400 and I don't

00:14:34.840 know if

00:14:35.160 that's the

00:14:36.500 case,

00:14:37.380 but it would

00:14:37.780 be good to

00:14:38.140 have it.

00:14:38.940 All right,

00:14:40.600 Jack Welsh

00:14:41.520 died today

00:14:42.780 at age

00:14:43.220 84.

00:14:43.740 Here's why

00:14:46.700 that's more

00:14:47.280 important than

00:14:48.380 you would

00:14:48.780 think.

00:14:50.580 Of course,

00:14:51.220 it's important

00:14:51.700 when a

00:14:52.620 business icon

00:14:53.540 dies.

00:14:54.220 It's always

00:14:54.500 big news.

00:14:56.040 But he

00:14:57.040 died at

00:14:57.380 84.

00:14:58.560 Here are

00:14:59.120 the ages

00:14:59.660 that these

00:15:00.540 candidates for

00:15:01.360 president would

00:15:02.120 be if they

00:15:02.820 finished a

00:15:03.480 second term.

00:15:05.320 And a

00:15:06.660 second term

00:15:07.400 is really

00:15:09.320 the only

00:15:09.780 reason you

00:15:10.300 should elect

00:15:10.740 the president,

00:15:11.580 in my opinion.

00:15:12.920 Why would

00:15:13.680 you ever

00:15:14.040 vote for

00:15:14.580 a president

00:15:15.140 that you

00:15:16.180 believed would

00:15:16.940 be limited

00:15:17.460 to one

00:15:18.000 term?

00:15:19.500 Wouldn't

00:15:19.760 that be

00:15:20.120 just a

00:15:20.500 terrible

00:15:20.760 choice?

00:15:21.520 Because if

00:15:22.060 you want

00:15:22.400 your party

00:15:22.900 to really

00:15:23.620 make a

00:15:24.560 difference,

00:15:25.360 you can see

00:15:26.100 with this

00:15:26.460 president that

00:15:27.080 you can do

00:15:27.380 a lot in

00:15:27.820 four years,

00:15:29.100 but eight

00:15:29.700 years is a

00:15:30.260 big difference.

00:15:31.200 Almost double,

00:15:32.100 some would

00:15:32.380 say.

00:15:32.720 You have that 0.63

00:15:33.460 lame duck

00:15:33.940 thing, so it's

00:15:34.440 not quite

00:15:34.820 double, but

00:15:35.860 it's more.

00:15:36.940 Why would

00:15:37.340 anybody nominate

00:15:38.500 a candidate

00:15:39.020 for president

00:15:39.760 who couldn't

00:15:40.540 reasonably be

00:15:42.080 expected to

00:15:43.160 finish two

00:15:43.920 terms if

00:15:44.640 that person

00:15:45.120 did well?

00:15:47.000 So here

00:15:47.740 are the

00:15:47.980 ages of

00:15:48.700 Biden.

00:15:50.240 He would

00:15:50.460 be 85 if

00:15:51.440 he finished

00:15:51.820 the second

00:15:52.220 term.

00:15:52.720 Bloomberg

00:15:53.060 86,

00:15:54.380 Bernie

00:15:54.880 86.

00:15:56.600 Jack Welch

00:15:57.160 died at

00:15:59.560 84.

00:16:00.700 Now, do you

00:16:01.520 think that

00:16:01.980 Jack Welch

00:16:02.560 was 100%

00:16:04.300 mentally capable

00:16:05.380 of, let's

00:16:06.360 say, being a

00:16:06.920 president at

00:16:08.180 age, I

00:16:09.200 don't know,

00:16:09.380 82?

00:16:10.940 I don't

00:16:11.540 know.

00:16:12.360 Probably not.

00:16:14.220 Probably not.

00:16:16.320 So this is

00:16:17.720 the sort of

00:16:18.120 thing that

00:16:18.440 adds context

00:16:19.380 to what you

00:16:20.160 were already

00:16:20.620 thinking.

00:16:21.520 And this

00:16:21.920 Jack Welch

00:16:22.580 death might

00:16:24.340 mean more

00:16:24.840 than you

00:16:25.180 think, because

00:16:26.420 of his, he

00:16:27.780 has a very

00:16:28.220 coincidental

00:16:29.020 age, and

00:16:30.600 he's, let's

00:16:32.460 say, by, not

00:16:34.940 by association,

00:16:35.760 but let's

00:16:36.520 say by

00:16:36.940 importance and

00:16:38.320 gravitas and

00:16:40.520 weight, there's

00:16:41.960 something about

00:16:42.520 Jack Welch which

00:16:43.400 is similar to a

00:16:44.400 president.

00:16:45.840 He was the

00:16:46.440 CEO of one of

00:16:47.560 the biggest

00:16:47.880 companies, most

00:16:49.360 famous business

00:16:50.220 person, so in

00:16:51.440 our minds, we

00:16:52.220 sort of put him

00:16:53.660 in that same

00:16:54.260 category as a

00:16:55.420 president of the

00:16:56.060 United States.

00:16:57.080 Different job,

00:16:58.200 but same

00:16:59.240 high-level

00:17:00.280 kind of dude,

00:17:03.220 in this case,

00:17:04.020 a dude, and

00:17:05.460 I think it

00:17:06.840 does matter to

00:17:07.860 our sense of

00:17:08.520 context and

00:17:09.480 contrast, because

00:17:10.880 those are very

00:17:11.400 influential, that

00:17:12.500 you see somebody

00:17:13.280 that reminds you

00:17:14.580 of these other

00:17:15.280 people, they're

00:17:16.600 sort of, you

00:17:17.340 know, old white

00:17:18.020 guys who run

00:17:18.820 stuff, and

00:17:20.320 that he died

00:17:20.780 at 84.

00:17:22.240 I think it

00:17:23.000 matters.

00:17:23.520 I think the

00:17:23.880 ages of the

00:17:24.480 candidates are

00:17:25.100 going to be a

00:17:25.500 real big issue.

00:17:28.120 All right.

00:17:30.540 There is a

00:17:31.300 little bit of

00:17:31.740 disagreement about

00:17:32.700 whether Jack

00:17:33.320 Welsh was the 1.00

00:17:34.040 greatest business

00:17:34.740 person in the

00:17:35.480 world, or 1.00

00:17:37.240 a bastard. 1.00

00:17:42.160 I have a 1.00

00:17:42.920 little mixed

00:17:43.380 feelings about

00:17:44.100 it.

00:17:44.480 I usually

00:17:44.880 don't talk

00:17:45.520 poorly of

00:17:46.420 people on

00:17:47.340 the same day

00:17:47.820 that they

00:17:48.140 die, but I'm 0.98

00:17:49.240 going to make 0.99

00:17:49.580 an exception

00:17:50.040 for Jack

00:17:50.640 Welsh, and

00:17:51.780 I'm going to

00:17:52.040 make an

00:17:52.360 exception for

00:17:53.040 him because

00:17:53.660 part of his

00:17:55.280 management

00:17:55.940 genius was

00:17:56.840 cruelty.

00:17:58.480 Cruelty.

00:17:59.040 the G 0.63

00:18:01.280 method was to

00:18:02.120 fire your 0.91

00:18:02.780 10% worse 0.75

00:18:03.740 workers no

00:18:04.400 matter what

00:18:04.940 every year.

00:18:07.060 He was

00:18:07.760 probably the

00:18:08.500 cruelest leader

00:18:10.360 that we've

00:18:11.580 seen.

00:18:12.440 He also

00:18:13.120 shipped a lot

00:18:13.760 of his jobs

00:18:14.400 to China

00:18:14.980 with no

00:18:16.480 apology, and

00:18:18.360 I believe

00:18:19.800 that a lot

00:18:21.280 of his

00:18:21.560 success, this

00:18:22.660 part, I'm

00:18:24.680 going to say

00:18:25.060 I don't know

00:18:25.640 this to be

00:18:26.100 true, so

00:18:26.500 fact-check

00:18:27.040 this because

00:18:28.160 I don't

00:18:28.420 want to

00:18:28.740 libel him

00:18:29.340 on the

00:18:29.640 day that

00:18:29.940 he dies. 0.99

00:18:31.080 Can you

00:18:31.460 libel somebody

00:18:32.080 if they're

00:18:32.480 dead?

00:18:33.660 I don't

00:18:33.920 even know

00:18:34.220 if that's

00:18:34.540 a thing.

00:18:35.540 But there's

00:18:39.340 at least

00:18:40.000 some suggestion

00:18:40.900 that he

00:18:41.220 destroyed the

00:18:41.980 company.

00:18:42.440 In other

00:18:42.700 words, that

00:18:43.040 he built

00:18:43.360 up profits

00:18:44.000 through the

00:18:46.280 financial part

00:18:47.280 of the

00:18:47.480 company, and

00:18:48.380 they weren't

00:18:48.740 as real as

00:18:49.400 they needed

00:18:49.740 to be.

00:18:50.640 So somebody

00:18:51.180 needs to

00:18:51.580 fact-check

00:18:52.000 me on that,

00:18:53.060 but be

00:18:53.820 very, very

00:18:54.520 skeptical of

00:18:56.140 anything you

00:18:56.780 see today

00:18:57.300 that says

00:18:57.820 he was

00:18:58.320 great for

00:18:59.740 this country.

00:19:01.300 Just be

00:19:01.740 skeptical about

00:19:02.480 that.

00:19:02.940 Maybe he

00:19:03.260 was, maybe

00:19:03.660 he wasn't.

00:19:04.340 And again, I

00:19:04.960 wouldn't say

00:19:05.360 this about

00:19:05.760 somebody on

00:19:06.380 the day

00:19:06.740 that they

00:19:07.100 died, except

00:19:08.460 that the

00:19:08.900 reason he's

00:19:09.420 famous is

00:19:10.020 for being 1.00

00:19:10.380 a bastard. 1.00

00:19:12.140 So, you 1.00

00:19:14.040 know, I

00:19:14.740 just don't

00:19:15.140 have any

00:19:15.440 sympathy for

00:19:16.060 him, frankly.

00:19:16.460 I saw a

00:19:20.760 video, Don

00:19:21.620 Jr.

00:19:22.120 tweeted

00:19:22.400 around, in

00:19:22.940 which Joe

00:19:23.500 Biden

00:19:23.800 promised some

00:19:25.380 people at

00:19:26.240 some gathering

00:19:27.300 he was

00:19:27.600 speaking to

00:19:28.140 that he

00:19:29.180 would raise

00:19:29.600 their taxes.

00:19:31.620 And here's

00:19:31.960 the funny

00:19:32.300 part.

00:19:33.400 I couldn't

00:19:34.140 tell if it

00:19:34.580 was a

00:19:34.860 gaffe.

00:19:37.020 He looked

00:19:37.760 at the

00:19:38.020 crowd, and

00:19:38.960 he said he

00:19:39.340 promised them

00:19:39.940 he would raise

00:19:40.920 their taxes.

00:19:42.360 Was that a

00:19:43.120 gaffe?

00:19:44.600 Because I

00:19:45.200 can't tell.

00:19:46.520 Because I'm

00:19:47.220 pretty sure he

00:19:48.740 wants to raise

00:19:49.420 taxes, but I

00:19:50.400 thought he was

00:19:50.780 talking about

00:19:51.240 the rich.

00:19:52.060 And here's the

00:19:52.700 interesting part.

00:19:53.800 If I had to

00:19:54.680 guess, I would

00:19:57.160 guess it's a

00:19:57.720 gaffe.

00:19:58.880 Unless he's

00:19:59.580 saying, I'm

00:20:00.120 being honest

00:20:00.700 with you, I'm

00:20:01.240 going to raise

00:20:01.580 your taxes a

00:20:02.340 little bit, so

00:20:03.560 we can have

00:20:04.000 universal health

00:20:04.740 care.

00:20:06.400 But here's the

00:20:07.180 funny thing, I

00:20:07.700 can't tell.

00:20:09.120 Oh, somebody

00:20:09.440 says watch the

00:20:10.060 whole clip, and

00:20:10.700 then it would

00:20:11.020 be obvious to

00:20:11.700 me.

00:20:12.400 But here's the

00:20:13.160 point.

00:20:13.820 The point is

00:20:14.600 that you can't

00:20:15.140 tell.

00:20:15.980 That's the

00:20:16.540 funny part.

00:20:17.940 All right?

00:20:18.460 The funny part is

00:20:19.500 you don't even

00:20:19.940 know if it's a

00:20:20.500 gaffe or it's

00:20:21.140 real.

00:20:21.680 If you can't

00:20:22.560 tell if somebody

00:20:24.600 is gaffing or

00:20:26.620 telling you what

00:20:27.220 they really intend

00:20:28.140 to tell you,

00:20:29.000 that's not a

00:20:29.880 strong candidate.

00:20:31.440 It's not.

00:20:35.340 So as Kyle

00:20:36.640 Caffrey noted

00:20:38.460 on Twitter,

00:20:39.820 probably other

00:20:40.320 people have had

00:20:40.820 this idea, but I

00:20:41.660 like it, that

00:20:42.860 Bernie Biden and

00:20:43.860 Bloomberg, who

00:20:45.120 seem like the

00:20:46.320 three most likely

00:20:47.180 candidates, they're

00:20:48.800 literally the B

00:20:49.540 team.

00:20:51.640 Bernie, Biden, and

00:20:52.640 Bloomberg, all with

00:20:54.040 a B.

00:20:54.460 Now, of course,

00:20:54.900 Sanders starts with

00:20:55.700 an S, but we

00:20:56.280 call him Bernie.

00:20:57.320 So they're

00:20:57.960 literally the B

00:20:58.700 team.

00:20:59.460 Again, Oprah

00:21:01.540 falls down when

00:21:02.420 she's talking about

00:21:03.320 balance, and the

00:21:05.540 last three candidates

00:21:06.420 for the Democrats,

00:21:07.480 who don't look that

00:21:08.200 strong, are

00:21:08.920 literally the B

00:21:09.660 team.

00:21:09.860 I love the

00:21:11.500 simulation.

00:21:14.500 How many times

00:21:15.460 have I told you,

00:21:16.280 in different

00:21:16.640 contexts, that in

00:21:19.080 hypnosis class, we

00:21:20.280 learned that people

00:21:21.040 tell you exactly what

00:21:22.240 they're really

00:21:22.760 thinking by their

00:21:24.200 choice of words.

00:21:25.320 So they can be

00:21:26.380 telling you A is

00:21:27.440 true, A is true,

00:21:28.420 A is true, but

00:21:29.380 sometimes the choice

00:21:30.340 of words in which

00:21:31.900 they're telling you

00:21:32.480 A is true is

00:21:33.800 really telling you

00:21:35.120 they mean B is

00:21:36.120 true.

00:21:36.380 And you can see

00:21:38.000 this a lot.

00:21:39.320 So you look for

00:21:40.160 the words they

00:21:40.920 choose, not just

00:21:43.660 the message that

00:21:44.820 they're communicating.

00:21:46.820 And you see this

00:21:47.740 with Buttigieg,

00:21:49.540 when he dropped

00:21:50.480 out of the race,

00:21:51.080 you all know that,

00:21:51.840 Buttigieg dropped

00:21:52.580 down.

00:21:54.120 And his argument

00:21:55.120 is that he says

00:21:57.560 it fairly directly,

00:21:59.280 that it's to

00:21:59.720 consolidate support

00:22:00.900 with a candidate

00:22:02.360 who's not Bernie,

00:22:03.420 basically, so that

00:22:04.420 they can beat

00:22:05.520 Trump.

00:22:06.380 So Buttigieg

00:22:06.980 talks about

00:22:07.560 beating Trump.

00:22:08.580 Biden says

00:22:10.340 beat Trump.

00:22:11.220 Bloomberg says

00:22:11.960 beat Trump.

00:22:12.960 If you ask them

00:22:13.660 why they're running

00:22:14.240 for president,

00:22:14.900 they say we

00:22:15.900 want to beat

00:22:16.420 Trump.

00:22:18.140 What if that's

00:22:18.920 what they mean?

00:22:21.500 What if you

00:22:22.800 actually took

00:22:23.400 their words and

00:22:24.200 said, okay,

00:22:25.280 if there were

00:22:27.620 no context here

00:22:28.660 and I were just

00:22:29.440 looking at these

00:22:30.120 words, what if I

00:22:31.780 just looked at

00:22:32.340 the words and

00:22:32.800 said, okay,

00:22:33.300 they mean exactly

00:22:34.060 what they're saying.

00:22:34.720 This is the

00:22:35.600 hypnotist trick.

00:22:37.400 And what they're

00:22:38.160 saying is that

00:22:39.300 that's their top

00:22:39.960 priority is beating

00:22:40.780 Trump.

00:22:43.480 What's missing

00:22:44.180 from that?

00:22:45.800 Anything that's

00:22:46.520 good for you?

00:22:48.400 Where's the part

00:22:49.240 where they're going

00:22:49.700 to help you?

00:22:51.100 Where's the part

00:22:51.840 they're going to

00:22:52.260 make you richer?

00:22:53.620 Where's the part

00:22:54.280 where they're going

00:22:54.700 to make you

00:22:55.080 safer?

00:22:56.180 Where's the part

00:22:56.820 where they're going

00:22:57.200 to make you

00:22:57.500 happier?

00:22:58.700 Where's the part

00:22:59.300 where they're going

00:22:59.880 I don't know, improve the military, reduce crime, give you more health care.

00:23:05.240 Now, at least Bernie and Elizabeth Warren are actually famous for their specific policies. 0.95

00:23:12.060 And I give them that.

00:23:13.040 That has a lot to do with why at least Bernie is doing well, is that he's got very bold policies.

00:23:21.540 Even people who absolutely don't want him to be president, the people like Tucker Carlson,

00:23:27.740 I just saw him somewhat complimentary say, Bernie Sanders is bold.

00:23:33.720 Whatever else you want to say about him, his vision is bold as hell.

00:23:40.220 Can't take that away from him.

00:23:41.980 We like that.

00:23:42.900 We like bold.

00:23:45.300 But it's clear that the more conservative side, the Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg part, without the Bernie part,

00:23:55.520 that they really do only have one goal, which is to beat Trump. 0.96

00:24:01.140 Do you want to vote for somebody whose philosophy is, we know that Trump is a monster who will destroy the world, 0.98

00:24:09.400 but here's the weird part. 0.62

00:24:11.680 It doesn't happen in the first four years.

00:24:13.740 For some reason, there's a timer on it.

00:24:17.960 First four years, well, those are free.

00:24:22.020 But wait till he gets reelected.

00:24:24.560 Oh, we told you orange man bad, and we meant it. 1.00

00:24:28.820 But what we meant was not the first four years.

00:24:31.760 Because if the Democrats were running against Trump's record, they would run against his record, wouldn't they?

00:24:44.660 If that's the purpose of trying to get elected, is to help you and run against his record and run against the things he's broken and fix them,

00:24:53.580 I believe they would say those things, if they thought the public was ready to accept them.

00:24:59.700 But instead, and this is the hypnotist trick, they say over and over again, as clearly as possible,

00:25:05.660 their top priority is to beat Trump.

00:25:08.740 Do you want a president whose top priority was simply to beat the other guy?

00:25:14.740 I can't think of a worse president.

00:25:19.340 That would be among the worst reasons for anybody to ever be a president.

00:25:25.800 Complete waste of time.

00:25:27.720 Bloomberg is going to spend a billion dollars or whatever just to beat Trump.

00:25:34.360 That just feels personal, doesn't it?

00:25:37.200 Doesn't it just feel personal?

00:25:38.920 It no longer even looks like they're even trying to be political even.

00:25:48.320 It just looks personal.

00:25:51.900 Buttigieg quit, gave his little speech.

00:25:55.560 I really enjoyed his husband Chastain's little introductory speech.

00:26:02.700 I thought that Chastain was very likable.

00:26:06.560 And I would give him, well, maybe this is too bold.

00:26:13.640 Nah, I'll say it anyway.

00:26:16.080 Chastain Buttigieg for Nobel Peace Prize.

00:26:22.960 Think about it.

00:26:24.120 Think about it.

00:26:24.980 Now, if you didn't see the speech, that doesn't mean, that's pretty confusing.

00:26:28.680 But according to Chastain, I believe it, that part of the reason he encouraged Pete to run for president was because of what it would say.

00:26:41.720 You know, what it would show the world.

00:26:43.820 And so the two of them, and I think Chastain was a pretty big part of this, was showing the world that, you know, Pete could be an out, proud, married gay man, could run for president, and that the public would support him, and that it would change the world.

00:27:02.360 But, did it, I think it did, I think it did.

00:27:09.680 I watched Chastain go up on stage and kiss Pete on the lips in front of the public on national TV, and I actually clapped.

00:27:19.820 I was home.

00:27:21.300 You know, I was alone, and I actually clapped.

00:27:23.360 Like, literally clapped.

00:27:26.180 Because, in losing, I think Buttigieg still won.

00:27:33.160 Now, he might come back.

00:27:34.240 He might, you know, be a good president someday.

00:27:36.420 I think, you know, his closing speech, peace anyway, I think showed why he's not president, or won't be, at least this time.

00:27:45.900 Because it was lacking passion, but it sure had lots of smarts in it.

00:27:50.580 It was lots of jargon, sounded more like a consultant.

00:27:54.560 Pete never really spoke to me on any emotional level.

00:27:58.740 But, I would say that the end result of his campaign was exactly what Chastain hoped it would be,

00:28:06.060 which is changing the way the world looks at the LGBT community.

00:28:11.480 I think that was accomplished.

00:28:13.640 And if you were to ask me, what would, you know, what would be one of the greatest ways to make the world more peaceful? 0.96

00:28:19.300 Well, just look at all the countries that are literally murdering gays. 0.91

00:28:25.820 Nobel Peace Prize. 0.94

00:28:27.720 It's not crazy.

00:28:29.280 It's not crazy.

00:28:31.520 All right.

00:28:32.220 So, let's just put that out there.

00:28:34.460 I was reminded, when Buttigieg quit, that the president had one of the best kill shots I've ever seen.

00:28:43.280 Alfred E. Newman cannot become president of the United States.

00:28:47.860 Now, that's a kill shot in a sentence instead of a nickname, although the Alfred E. Newman part is the strong part.

00:28:56.200 But just the construction of this sentence is so wonderful.

00:29:02.860 It's such a good construction.

00:29:04.100 Just Alfred E. Newman cannot become president of the United States.

00:29:09.960 It's hard to understand how beautiful that sentence is until you try to imagine how you would have said it.

00:29:16.720 Now, I would have said something like, he looks like Alfred E. Newman, which would have been kind of powerful because it would make you think of him for a while.

00:29:24.400 So, he could have started calling him Alfred, which he didn't, interestingly.

00:29:31.880 He never really gave a nickname to Mayor Pete.

00:29:34.980 He sometimes played with his last name, as it's hard to pronounce, but never really gave him a nickname beyond that one sentence.

00:29:43.360 But try to think of a better sentence structure than this one.

00:29:47.500 Alfred E. Newman cannot become president of the United States.

00:29:51.060 It's just kind of perfect.

00:29:53.800 Right?

00:29:54.400 And I don't think the president ever gets credit for his simple, perfect statements, because, you know, all the concentration is on whatever he says wrong.

00:30:07.940 In Selma, at a black church, Bloomberg appeared.

00:30:12.180 And I guess there were some protesters who were standing up front, or nine of them, who turned their backs to him, because they're not happy about his, probably about stop and frisk, I think, is what they're,

00:30:23.500 that they're concerned about.

00:30:24.700 And I thought, well, that's probably the end of Bloomberg, because that's so visual.

00:30:33.400 And if you were, let's say you're a black citizen of this country, and you're thinking about voting, and you're just starting to get serious about figuring out who's left to vote for.

00:30:43.740 Or you don't know much about Bloomberg because you didn't grow up in New York City, so you're finding out about him for the first time through the news.

00:30:50.960 And you find the news that black churchgoers turned their back on him.

00:30:56.160 Well, that's sort of the end, right?

00:31:01.680 I would say that the odds of a Bloomberg presidency just went to zero.

00:31:06.860 Now, I've said that before, and it's never been more obvious than now.

00:31:12.600 There's this slow realization that the only thing that matters is the black vote.

00:31:17.620 Now, of course, everything else has to happen roughly the way we expect it to happen, and it usually does.

00:31:22.860 Yes, most Democrats vote Democrat, most Republicans vote Republican.

00:31:27.700 You know, turnout will be something in that range that we can kind of predict.

00:31:32.720 But the black vote, congratulations, guys.

00:31:37.660 You're in charge this year.

00:31:40.000 So if the next president doesn't do what you want him to do,

00:31:45.100 let me say this to my fellow black citizens and teammates,

00:31:49.160 it's on you this time.

00:31:50.420 It's kind of on you, because the black vote will determine who's the next president.

00:31:56.060 There's no doubt about it.

00:32:00.720 Interestingly, it's the most flexible part of the voting public on this topic,

00:32:05.980 for some reason, the topic of the presidency.

00:32:09.160 So you're in charge.

00:32:10.600 I hope you choose well.

00:32:11.500 Here's some fun.

00:32:16.760 You know, I jumped on this coronavirus hoax thing early.

00:32:21.360 So the hoax part was that the hoax was claiming that President Trump had called the virus itself a hoax,

00:32:30.500 which never happened.

00:32:32.140 He had talked about how the Democrats were politicizing it and the press, etc.

00:32:36.620 So he said that part was a hoax, not the virus itself.

00:32:41.680 But Politico and others tweeted around and wrote stories saying,

00:32:47.100 claiming that the president called it the coronavirus a hoax.

00:32:50.420 Here's the fun part.

00:32:52.260 Facebook, with its new policy of labeling fake news,

00:32:58.020 labeled it fake news.

00:32:59.060 So on Facebook, Politico's story that the president called the virus a hoax

00:33:05.740 is actually just labeled fake news.

00:33:08.840 Congratulations, everybody.

00:33:11.040 I believe that Twitter did this.

00:33:15.280 And I believe that because we are also primed and alerted for these hoaxes now,

00:33:22.280 because we've seen so many and how that we see exactly how they're done.

00:33:25.420 It's always a misinterpretation.

00:33:26.840 And we hope they don't check the original.

00:33:29.140 They're going to see the story, but they're not going to see the transcript,

00:33:31.480 that sort of thing.

00:33:32.860 And we all jumped on it quickly.

00:33:35.780 And we just hammered that thing when it was still in its crib. 0.71

00:33:41.820 And I think we killed it. 0.98

00:33:44.140 Maybe. 0.78

00:33:45.320 I mean, it might pop up again.

00:33:46.980 But I think that one got killed by fairly aggressive counteraction.

00:33:53.860 And now Facebook is labeled it fake.

00:33:56.440 So good work.

00:33:59.620 All right.

00:34:00.460 We'll get to the coronavirus, of course.

00:34:05.860 Let's talk about Turkey first.

00:34:07.740 I don't know what's going on in Turkey.

00:34:09.620 I'm trying to figure it out.

00:34:10.680 I feel like the reporting is failing me.

00:34:13.500 So what I can make out is that there's this Idlib is a city near the border of Turkey.

00:34:20.140 It's in Syria.

00:34:21.360 Turkey's pounding the Syrian forces.

00:34:24.060 But here's the part we don't understand.

00:34:26.800 Russia has decided to just get out of the way, 0.73

00:34:30.560 which allowed the Turks to just pound the piss on the Syrians.

00:34:35.500 Now, I guess the Turkish military is far more capable because they really, 0.98

00:34:42.220 it looks like they really slapped around the Syrians. 0.58

00:34:45.940 But what's happening with Russia?

00:34:49.060 Is Russia going to leave?

00:34:51.540 Are they just sort of staying out of the way?

00:34:54.700 Where's NATO?

00:34:55.440 It's a hot war with a NATO ally.

00:35:02.060 Why aren't we in it?

00:35:03.660 And if we're not in it, why don't we kick Turkey out of NATO or something? 0.89

00:35:09.140 Shouldn't something be happening?

00:35:11.940 Now, it could be that the Russians know that if they attacked Turkey,

00:35:18.020 that NATO is involved.

00:35:20.180 So it could be that the Russians are saying, you know, risk-reward,

00:35:23.460 we're just getting out of the way.

00:35:25.520 All we want is a warm port.

00:35:27.640 We don't really care about anything else.

00:35:30.360 Let's just get out of the way.

00:35:33.420 So I feel like that story, we are not being served well by the press.

00:35:37.660 We need a little extra talking about that.

00:35:41.220 All right.

00:35:42.120 North Korea launched some short-range rockets,

00:35:44.760 which feels like sort of a look at me, you look at me.

00:35:47.500 Now, a lot of time has gone by since Kim Jong-un said, you know,

00:35:52.800 he's unhappy about where the conversations are going,

00:35:56.600 where the negotiations are going, where they're not going, I guess.

00:36:00.020 Don't you think he would have done more

00:36:02.000 if we did not have a President Trump

00:36:05.120 who had at least made some inroads in conversation

00:36:07.980 and opening up the dialogue?

00:36:09.760 I think so.

00:36:11.280 It feels like North Korea has turned into a weirdly stable situation.

00:36:17.720 Meaning that we've got sanctions on.

00:36:20.940 Obviously, North Korea has figured out how to get around them. 0.94

00:36:24.540 And as long as they believe we're not prepping to attack them,

00:36:27.940 and I think President Trump has convinced them

00:36:30.040 that we have zero interest

00:36:32.320 in ever invading North Korea or regime change.

00:36:36.700 It's just not what we're into.

00:36:38.040 I think Kim Jong-un is just going to mind his own business for a while.

00:36:43.380 And I think these short-range rockets,

00:36:45.300 in this case, it might not have even been a message.

00:36:48.980 It might have been just a test.

00:36:50.440 Because short-range rockets weren't that scary anyway.

00:36:53.380 All right.

00:36:53.680 Let's talk about the coronavirus.

00:37:00.060 Here's my prediction for where things are going to go.

00:37:03.440 And I'll give some context first.

00:37:05.640 I asked the question online

00:37:07.220 because it's scary that we don't all know the answer.

00:37:11.420 Whatever stops the flu from getting everybody?

00:37:13.760 Excuse me.

00:37:20.200 Might be a few more of those sneezes coming.

00:37:23.240 But what stops any flu,

00:37:25.540 just a seasonal flu,

00:37:27.320 what stops it from eventually affecting everyone?

00:37:32.260 Now, many of you are going to say,

00:37:34.480 well, I know the answer to that.

00:37:35.740 It's the weather.

00:37:37.860 When the weather gets warm,

00:37:39.580 then it doesn't go around as much.

00:37:41.960 But how does that make sense?

00:37:44.540 Let me ask you this.

00:37:45.900 Where do you spend most of your time in the summer?

00:37:51.200 Indoors, right? 0.99

00:37:52.320 I live in California.

00:37:54.380 In the summer,

00:37:55.500 you really can't spend that much time outdoors.

00:37:58.860 Most of us, most human beings,

00:38:01.460 spend almost all of our time indoors.

00:38:04.360 Very few of us are even outdoors

00:38:07.000 except to go to the car.

00:38:09.040 Maybe you go for a run.

00:38:10.220 One hour a day, maybe, outdoors, stops.

00:38:14.580 That would be typical.

00:38:16.220 So if you say the only difference is

00:38:18.120 that people are going outdoors,

00:38:20.420 I don't buy that at all.

00:38:22.600 That doesn't seem like a reason.

00:38:24.000 I can't...

00:38:24.660 Because the...

00:38:25.940 If you say it's because of the temperature,

00:38:28.200 I would ask you,

00:38:29.100 what is the temperature indoors?

00:38:31.160 Because that's where we all are.

00:38:32.340 It's the same year-round.

00:38:33.500 Now, I'm seeing in the comments,

00:38:36.260 and I'm getting to that.

00:38:37.460 So some people are saying it's humidity.

00:38:39.840 So I've heard the theory.

00:38:41.500 I don't know how true this is.

00:38:42.960 Somebody fact-check me on this.

00:38:44.460 The whole point of what I'm saying

00:38:45.820 is that I don't understand what's going on.

00:38:49.300 Let's say it's humidity.

00:38:50.280 If it were humidity that makes a difference,

00:38:54.300 wouldn't we be pumping humidity

00:38:56.120 into our indoor spaces?

00:38:58.800 It's not that hard.

00:39:00.640 Humidity is easy.

00:39:02.400 Water, little heat, humidity.

00:39:06.680 So if this coronavirus is this gigantic,

00:39:11.120 you know, deadly thing, and it is,

00:39:12.940 and if it's true that the summer

00:39:16.320 is when things are less of a problem,

00:39:19.620 and if it's true that it's because

00:39:21.260 of a difference in humidity,

00:39:23.280 and it's also true that we're...

00:39:25.000 It's not like we're getting coronavirus

00:39:27.040 from a tree.

00:39:29.220 I don't think people get it

00:39:30.860 just because they went outdoors.

00:39:33.120 I would guess that nearly all of it

00:39:35.080 is transmitted indoors.

00:39:37.080 Wouldn't you?

00:39:38.300 And if indoors is the problem,

00:39:40.480 and it's the difference of humidity indoors,

00:39:43.920 that's the main factor

00:39:45.580 between rampant spread in the winter

00:39:48.080 versus not rampant spread in the summer,

00:39:50.840 wouldn't we be adding humidity?

00:39:54.480 Dr. Zhu, it's about time

00:39:56.080 you got here to answer this question,

00:39:57.860 if you know the answer.

00:39:59.480 So I'll just...

00:40:00.000 I'll ask this to Dr. Zhu.

00:40:01.220 I'm hoping you're listening right now.

00:40:04.280 Why don't all viruses

00:40:05.960 eventually affect just about everybody?

00:40:09.320 Couldn't we add humidity

00:40:10.480 to an indoor environment

00:40:11.720 if it's the humidity

00:40:12.620 that makes a difference?

00:40:13.640 Why wouldn't we be doing that?

00:40:17.580 Anyway, so that's the point.

00:40:19.020 Most of our time is spent indoors

00:40:20.400 at exactly the same temperature,

00:40:22.140 no matter where you are in the world,

00:40:24.120 no matter what season it is.

00:40:25.860 So it can't be the temperature,

00:40:27.800 and I don't think it's just

00:40:28.980 because the kids are not in school,

00:40:30.860 because we're still all socializing

00:40:32.680 massively all the time.

00:40:34.800 There's nothing about summer

00:40:36.060 that makes you socialize less,

00:40:37.880 or even make you be indoors less.

00:40:41.160 I mean, honestly,

00:40:41.960 the difference between being indoors

00:40:44.040 24 hours a day

00:40:45.340 except going to your car

00:40:46.720 versus being indoors 23 hours a day,

00:40:50.060 but maybe you go for a run for an hour,

00:40:52.140 it's just not that much difference.

00:40:55.780 And as somebody's saying in the comments,

00:40:57.580 and I said on Twitter,

00:40:58.700 it's always winter someplace.

00:41:00.120 So here's what I would expect

00:41:03.360 based on what the media has informed us,

00:41:08.700 which means that there's something missing.

00:41:11.540 It's something important.

00:41:13.100 I don't know what it is,

00:41:14.320 but it's something important

00:41:15.480 because all those other flus

00:41:16.880 do not seem to infect 100% of the world,

00:41:20.160 and I don't know why.

00:41:22.140 Now I can get why maybe 10% would have some weird immunity

00:41:26.120 or 10% coincidentally don't interact with somebody,

00:41:29.960 but how does it not get 90% of the public eventually,

00:41:34.000 right,

00:41:34.960 given all the travel and connections we have.

00:41:38.460 So that's an open question.

00:41:40.500 Dr. Drew, if you know the answer to that,

00:41:41.920 I would love to see a tweet on that.

00:41:44.200 Now I've heard one speculation

00:41:45.840 is that the virus mutates,

00:41:48.840 and the idea would be this.

00:41:50.900 You know, if I get it from patient zero,

00:41:52.760 I've got a version that's pretty close to the one I got.

00:41:57.040 I give it to you,

00:41:58.160 and yours is one little bit different

00:42:01.040 from the other one, patient zero.

00:42:03.640 And if enough people give it to enough people,

00:42:06.640 one theory is that it mutates enough

00:42:08.580 so it's not quite the same thing anymore

00:42:10.320 and maybe not as viral.

00:42:12.560 Is that true?

00:42:14.540 If it is,

00:42:16.220 then this virus would be just like every other.

00:42:19.340 So here's where I'm getting at from my prediction.

00:42:21.120 Unless this virus is, let's say, man-made,

00:42:26.180 and I don't think it is,

00:42:27.980 or even if it is human-made,

00:42:30.240 but it's made to mimic the natural ones,

00:42:33.220 it's going to have the same quality,

00:42:34.940 which is, for whatever reason,

00:42:37.220 it goes away,

00:42:39.900 just like every other flu.

00:42:42.100 I don't know the reason,

00:42:43.440 and I'm not entirely sure that science knows it.

00:42:46.660 There's just something in the math.

00:42:48.400 There's something I'm not understanding

00:42:51.840 that doesn't smell right.

00:42:53.900 But the point being,

00:42:57.020 here's my prediction.

00:42:58.480 Coronavirus will come under control.

00:43:01.700 That's based on the theory

00:43:02.840 that it's not so different from other flus

00:43:05.320 that always come under control.

00:43:07.820 100% of every past bad flu

00:43:10.560 has come under control,

00:43:12.560 and that was before we had good medical treatment, etc.

00:43:17.200 So the first part of the prediction is

00:43:19.880 there will be an end to this.

00:43:24.060 The most likely scenario

00:43:25.620 is that it happens within the year.

00:43:28.860 So that's the first good news.

00:43:31.040 But the bigger issue is,

00:43:33.980 and then the second part I would say is,

00:43:35.700 if nobody had ever told you

00:43:37.040 there was anything called a coronavirus,

00:43:38.980 and you just thought

00:43:40.720 that everybody getting the flu

00:43:41.920 were just getting regular flus,

00:43:45.180 would you ever notice

00:43:46.880 that the coronavirus

00:43:48.280 had swept through the planet?

00:43:51.400 Now, if it's like Iran, 0.99

00:43:53.460 where people seem to be dropping

00:43:55.140 in the streets,

00:43:57.580 well, yeah, you'd notice.

00:43:59.240 The hospitals would be full, etc.

00:44:01.360 If it's like the United States,

00:44:04.180 and I don't know what the difference is,

00:44:05.760 but so far it seems that

00:44:07.560 it's not dropping people in the street.

00:44:11.860 If it becomes like that,

00:44:13.380 you're going to see that

00:44:14.260 it just runs its course,

00:44:16.200 and you wouldn't have even noticed

00:44:17.860 if, let me put it this way,

00:44:20.600 if the number of 80-year-old plus people

00:44:23.760 that you know

00:44:24.600 dying in a year

00:44:26.880 went from

00:44:28.860 seven

00:44:30.480 to nine,

00:44:33.940 could you tell the difference?

00:44:35.760 Well, it's a big difference

00:44:36.960 to the people who died, obviously.

00:44:38.960 But would you know the difference?

00:44:41.140 I don't think you would.

00:44:42.420 Because you don't know

00:44:43.300 if seven people you know

00:44:44.820 over 80

00:44:45.580 were supposed to die that year,

00:44:48.100 because that's when people die,

00:44:49.680 or if it was a little extra.

00:44:51.740 You actually wouldn't know.

00:44:53.860 So there's a good chance

00:44:55.040 that the coronavirus

00:44:56.960 will just run its course.

00:44:58.400 I do think people will die.

00:44:59.820 So far, they all seem to be

00:45:01.180 in the age where

00:45:02.640 people are dying anyway.

00:45:03.980 Not that that makes it better.

00:45:06.960 And here's my prediction.

00:45:09.060 At the moment,

00:45:10.040 the best thing that

00:45:11.280 the world can do for health

00:45:13.180 is take a step back

00:45:15.120 and close some factories,

00:45:17.380 which closes all the supply lines.

00:45:19.920 If supply lines stayed closed,

00:45:22.900 there would be a massive depression

00:45:24.420 in the world,

00:45:25.320 and it would kill

00:45:26.260 far more people than the virus.

00:45:28.280 So here's the balance,

00:45:30.080 and here's the basis

00:45:30.800 of my prediction.

00:45:32.200 At the moment,

00:45:33.080 in the short term,

00:45:34.440 the highest risk

00:45:35.460 is the virus.

00:45:37.260 In the medium term,

00:45:38.900 which is,

00:45:39.320 I'm just talking about

00:45:40.120 a few months,

00:45:41.380 in the medium term,

00:45:43.040 the biggest risk of death

00:45:44.380 will be the economy

00:45:45.300 going bad.

00:45:46.600 There's a crossover coming,

00:45:48.300 and it's just a few weeks away.

00:45:50.000 The moment the biggest risk

00:45:51.860 to the world

00:45:52.480 is that the economy

00:45:53.540 has crumbled

00:45:54.180 because the supply lines

00:45:55.680 fell apart,

00:45:56.200 at that point,

00:45:58.580 people will consciously

00:45:59.760 make the decision

00:46:00.720 to risk the virus

00:46:02.400 to save the economy

00:46:04.280 because that's how

00:46:05.580 you save the most lives.

00:46:07.080 When the economy goes bad,

00:46:08.340 people die.

00:46:09.920 I mean,

00:46:10.240 they die a lot.

00:46:12.220 You know,

00:46:12.440 people will starve.

00:46:13.420 It would be massive

00:46:14.120 dislocation and risk.

00:46:16.940 So I think

00:46:18.100 there's an inevitable

00:46:19.840 crossover point

00:46:21.360 where China is going to say,

00:46:23.300 yep,

00:46:24.340 if we open these factories,

00:46:26.200 two percent plus

00:46:28.660 of the people

00:46:29.800 who go to work

00:46:30.480 are going to die. 0.95

00:46:32.080 But if we don't

00:46:33.140 open the factories,

00:46:34.880 ten percent of our population

00:46:36.800 will die. 0.61

00:46:38.300 There's no contest. 0.98

00:46:39.920 There's no contest.

00:46:41.460 China will open the factories

00:46:43.180 because it's the way

00:46:44.520 to save the most people,

00:46:45.840 even if two percent of them

00:46:46.980 are guaranteed to die.

00:46:48.900 Now,

00:46:49.600 there's nothing

00:46:50.500 to be happy about,

00:46:51.680 right?

00:46:52.020 But given

00:46:54.400 that we've seen

00:46:55.000 that mostly

00:46:55.560 non-compromised

00:46:57.440 people

00:46:58.500 are recovering,

00:46:59.980 what I expect

00:47:00.960 is that the factories

00:47:01.960 will open,

00:47:02.920 but not until,

00:47:04.680 not until

00:47:05.420 the people

00:47:05.980 who

00:47:06.400 have been checked out

00:47:08.400 to be older

00:47:09.160 or may have

00:47:10.180 some underlying illness,

00:47:11.840 they might be relocated.

00:47:13.900 In other words,

00:47:14.500 there might be

00:47:15.200 some special

00:47:16.020 consideration

00:47:17.080 for people

00:47:17.780 who are a certain age

00:47:18.800 or have any kind

00:47:20.300 of underlying condition.

00:47:21.480 They probably

00:47:22.000 wouldn't go back to work.

00:47:23.460 You have to keep them safe.

00:47:25.520 But if you're 30

00:47:26.740 and you're in good shape

00:47:27.940 and you're Chinese

00:47:28.760 and the worst case 0.99

00:47:30.780 for getting the flu

00:47:31.640 is probably

00:47:32.800 a few days off of work,

00:47:34.820 a couple weeks

00:47:35.400 off of work,

00:47:36.620 I think the factory

00:47:38.320 is going to open.

00:47:39.480 When that happens,

00:47:40.340 your stock market

00:47:41.180 will zoom,

00:47:43.020 of course.

00:47:44.640 All right.

00:47:45.660 Does anybody

00:47:46.300 disagree with that?

00:47:47.000 I think we're

00:47:48.520 I think we're

00:47:50.060 in the

00:47:50.800 eight weeks away

00:47:53.700 from the supply

00:47:55.260 lines being reopened

00:47:56.480 and we can probably

00:47:59.120 we can probably

00:48:00.320 get by for eight weeks.

00:48:01.660 We probably have

00:48:02.200 a month of supply

00:48:03.220 for everything.

00:48:04.880 There's probably

00:48:05.580 a month where

00:48:06.180 things will be rough,

00:48:07.360 but we'll still

00:48:08.320 figure it out

00:48:09.040 and then I think

00:48:10.720 we'll be back in action.

00:48:12.120 That's what I think.

00:48:13.400 So, yeah,

00:48:13.880 there's a report

00:48:14.900 that they're sending

00:48:15.580 the Uyghurs 1.00

00:48:16.840 to work

00:48:18.200 in the factories.

00:48:21.080 Unfortunately,

00:48:21.740 that might be

00:48:22.520 part of the

00:48:24.080 part of the recovery,

00:48:25.860 which is just

00:48:26.380 the worst thing

00:48:26.980 in the world.

00:48:30.260 Somebody says,

00:48:31.120 if I can't work

00:48:32.020 even at home,

00:48:32.860 I can't pay

00:48:33.660 my mortgage.

00:48:34.740 That is correct.

00:48:35.700 And that's why

00:48:36.500 you will see people

00:48:37.920 going to work

00:48:38.720 and risking the virus

00:48:40.240 because it will be

00:48:41.380 a smaller risk

00:48:42.460 than risking

00:48:44.180 the economy.

00:48:44.780 So,

00:48:45.900 does that feel

00:48:46.440 like good news?

00:48:47.540 Because there's

00:48:48.320 really no chance

00:48:49.700 that the economy

00:48:51.440 will go to

00:48:52.180 depression

00:48:52.680 because the risk

00:48:55.560 is going to flip.

00:48:56.960 It's just that obvious.

00:48:58.400 All right?

00:48:59.640 That's what we got going

00:49:00.760 and I will talk to you

00:49:02.120 tomorrow.

00:49:02.820 we got a thing

00:49:18.420 that we'll talk

00:49:19.340 about

00:49:19.560 the

00:49:20.560 way

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 03, 2020

Episode 837 Scott Adams： Talking Turkey, Democrat's ＂B＂ Team, Coronavirus Predictions, Twitter Takeover

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