Episode 848 Scott Adams： #WuhanVirus, Trump's Nat'l Address, Tom Hanks, Stocks, Bitcoin
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 1 minute
Words per Minute
151.99286
Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, the host talks about the Wuhan Virus, and the people of China who stepped up to the plate to make sure it didn t get out of control, and why they deserve our thanks.
Transcript
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Hey, everybody. It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the best part of the day.
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I think you'd agree. It's pretty obvious, really.
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Jack, good to see you. Come on in here. It's time for the simultaneous sip, and all you need is a
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cup or a mug or a glass or a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jugger, a flask, a vessel of any kind.
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Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of
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the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything, including the Wuhan virus, better.
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It's called the simultaneous sip. It happens now. Go.
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So as I often do, I was watching myself in replay. So I play back my periscopes now and then just to
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see what it looks like and see if I can make it better. And I got to tell you, one of the
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one of the systems you should implement in your life, and it really, really helps you understand
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yourself, is making a real concerted effort to monitor your personality after certain conditions
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have changed. So for example, monitor your personality after you've had a good night's sleep
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sleep, and then compare it to a bad night's sleep. You're going to see a difference. Hungry versus
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not hungry. And as you all know, I've mentioned it, I'm coming off of prednisone. So I had some
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prednisone for some sinus stuff. And it completely changes my personality. And so I note it before I
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take it so that I can watch myself like an observer, which is really hard. Because when it's you,
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you don't really feel like you're observing yourself, you're just you. But you can do it if
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you practice. So I've been watching myself sort of objectively to see if I turned into a different
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personality on prednisone. And when I watched myself on the playback, I really did. So I'm on the tail
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end of it now, so it should be normalizing. But as I was watching myself, I thought, I don't think I'd
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watch that guy. He seems kind of intense and angry and a little belligerent. So my judgment of myself
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is that I was a little belligerent yesterday and a little bit unkind. I was definitely hard on the
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president. I doubt I've ever been harder on Trump than I have this week. I think you'd probably agree.
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But let's talk about all that stuff. Anyway, so it's a good, it's just a good technique to learn to
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watch yourself objectively and say, hey, is that my normal personality? Is that or is that because of
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the beds I'm on or I didn't get enough sleep or something? All right, there's a whole bunch of
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stuff happening. Number one, I understand that the Chinese government really, really, really hates it.
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When you call this any kind of a Chinese flu or the Wuhan virus. Now, once I learned that the Chinese
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government really hates it, when you call the virus that, I decided that from now on, I'll only call
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it the Wuhan virus. Now, I don't love calling it any kind of a Chinese virus because Chinese refers to,
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you know, variously the country, the people, etc. And that's a little close to, to making a, you know,
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an accidental racist sounding statement. But Wuhan is literally the name of government gives
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a piece of real estate. So that to me feels like more government. And it's the government of China
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China that I hate with a passion. The people are quite awesome. In fact, let me thank the people
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of China right now. The, the people of China, as opposed to the government, who sacrificed a lot
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to slow this virus down. And you guys did a great job for the, for the world. Certainly the people
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working on containing it in China were not the people responsible for releasing it, if anybody is
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responsible. Who knows where it came from. But the Chinese people, a plus plus plus. And a big thank
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you for the sacrifice that you guys did. Because I know you were fighting for your own lives and for
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your families and for your own country. But it helped the world as well. So thanks. And it looks
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like things are maybe slowing down over there. So China is really getting a handle on it.
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In these times of national, not national, global crisis, it's good to take stock of the more
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sober-minded among us. So leadership, leadership sort of bubbles up where you don't expect it.
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And you see this in a whole bunch of different ways. People are just sort of stepping up and taking
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a position on the Wuhan virus. Taking a position, meaning they're saying, what can I uniquely do
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that would help? What's the thing that I can do that's my skill set? And you see me doing it as best
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I can. I was just noticing on Twitter that famous, I never know what to call him because he's so many
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things. But among others, Naval Ravikant is a famous investor and advisor of startups and things like
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that. Now, he probably wouldn't call himself that. But within his talent stack, there's this tremendous
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range of investment, business understanding. And so he tweets, I think it was last night,
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and he said, current market panic feels overblown. Now, when somebody like Naval says that, it means
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more, right? So if the smartest, most experienced people are saying the market looks overblown,
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they're saying it for a reason. They're saying it for a reason, because the economy is a psychology
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machine. And the people who understand that and have important positions, you know, in the world where
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they can say, look, I'm experienced. Listen to me on this topic. That's what Naval's saying.
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And he's saying that the current market panic feels overblown. This is a short-term shock.
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Asian countries show social distancing, assisted by seasonality in the Wuhan flu, that's my word,
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works. Headlines will worsen as mass testing begins. So in other words, it's going to look worse
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just because we're discovering more of it as we get better at testing. And he says,
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take it seriously for yourself, wear masks for others, don't panic, trade. He says, I don't.
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So don't do panic trading. So you know that old saying that I'm not a big fan of it, but you know,
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there's nothing to fear but fear itself, whichever president said that, Roselle. And
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this is one of those cases where that's purely true. The only thing that would destroy the,
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you know, the financial markets is bad thinking. So if we, if we just decide to be too afraid,
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well, we'll all go, you know, basically run off a cliff together. But it takes people like
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Naval, and I hope that my voice adds to this a little bit to say, this is temporary because it
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is. I would say the one thing that you could bet on with the greatest certainty of anything you've
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ever bet on is that it's temporary. Most things are. And so we'll be fine. Just keep your psychology
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strong. This is not the time to panic sell. And I find that a helpful message. So when people,
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when people of that station tell you to relax, that means something. And that's helpful.
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So there was a apparently a fascinating interaction last night on CNN, where Don Lemon was interviewing
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John Kasich. Now Kasich, of course, is no fan of President Trump, but he is a moderate Republican.
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And Lemon was trying to get John Kasich to say bad things about Trump's national address last night
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about the Wuhan virus. And Kasich wouldn't do it. Kasich basically said, yeah, it was pretty good.
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Yeah, it was 98% okay. Yeah, he had to clarify a few things. Big deal. He was reading it for a
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teleprompter. So obviously, it was prepared and all the right people saw it and everything.
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And I guess Don Lemon was flipping out because he couldn't get Kasich to say something bad about
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Trump in a crisis. Now, I don't think I've ever liked John Kasich better than last night.
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So much so that I thought if he had, you know, if he had re-registered as a Democrat,
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Democrat, and just ran as a Democrat, I mean, he'd have a shot. Because he's a completely reasonable,
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level-minded guy who's never been crazy. And I appreciated him a lot last night, just sticking up
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for the fact that the president's address. And I'll give my own criticism, so I'm not agreeing with
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Kasich's view. I just appreciate the independence of it. The fact that he wasn't going to take a side
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during a crisis when he so easily could have, you know, criticized the president. Because he's
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criticized the president a lot. It's not like Kasich doesn't know how to criticize the president. He
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knows how. But he chose, during this panic, not to nitpick on something that wasn't worth
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nitpicking on something. Good job, John Kasich. Appreciate the leadership. Here's a question for
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you. None of this is going to be in any particular good order today. But why don't we know more about
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ventilators? Here's my question for the news media. And I would actually like you, the news media,
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to send a reporter somewhere. You know, send somebody out and get a report on this. Who's making our
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ventilators? And how quickly are we ramping up? Why is that not the biggest story? Because it's
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the most crucial piece of equipment, the thing that will be most in demand if things crest the way
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we think they will. But who makes them? Do we even make them in the United States? Are they hard to
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make? If we wanted to suddenly go from, you know, making $100,000 a week to $10,000 a week, could we do it?
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I don't know. So, you know, in World War II, one of the most amazing things was that the United States
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industry just sort of immediately transitioned into making tanks and war materials, etc.,
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and did it pretty quickly. I don't know what quickly means in that context, but it was quick.
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So here's a question I ask you. How close are we in terms of the totality of technology from robots to
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3D printers to you name it? How close are we to spinning up a factory to make a product that's,
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let's say, robot run starting from scratch? Like how quickly could we build, even if it's a temporary
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facility? You know, you saw China build these entire hospitals, temporary hospitals, but they
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built them in like a week. What would it take for the United States with all of its resources in an
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emergency to spin up a robot manufacturing facility for ventilators? Because, you know, you could skip a lot
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of safety stuff. You know, it's a temporary building. It's an emergency. You just wave all the red tape out
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of the way. So if you got rid of all the red tape, what could the best engineers with unlimited resources
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of the federal government, highest priority working day and night, how fast could we do it? And why don't
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we have, because somebody's doing it right now, right? I mean, somebody is making more ventilators,
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I think, right? Nobody's making new ventilators. I believe they are. And how about if you wanted
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people to help? Suppose it's an assembly line situation. Do you think you could find enough
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people to work on the assembly line temporarily to make these ventilators? Yeah, of course. Unlimited labor.
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You want labor to assemble ventilators? You got it. I'll do it. I'll volunteer tomorrow. I'll make you some
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ventilators. It's an emergency. Of course, you have all the labor you want. So you have all the money, all the
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labor, all the knowledge. How fast could we put them together? And why isn't the news showing us videos of the
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people who are actually doing that? I have a real curiosity about that, because it seems like the main, there
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might not be anything that's more important in the end. That's what's going to keep people alive, I
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think. All right. I was pretty disgusted watching the news last night. I don't know if this is the
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prednisone still talking. So here's one of those points where I have to catch myself, and I say,
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all right, it's the next thing that comes out of my mouth, because I know what it is, you don't.
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It's the next thing that comes out of my mouth. Is that my normal personality? I don't really know.
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It doesn't feel like it. It feels a little more aggressive than normally I would be.
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I've been trying to figure out why there's so much loser think on social media, more than usual,
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and specifically around the Wuhan virus. At first I thought to myself, oh, it's just because I'm
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noticing it more, because there's a new topic for people to be dumb about. So I'm just tuned to it,
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so I'm just noticing it more. But there was a similarity to it that I kept saying to myself,
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why is there this weird similarity to the things people are saying that don't make sense? And
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unfortunately, I found the source. I found the mothership. And here's what I'm talking about.
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I keep seeing people comparing the Wuhan virus to regular flu death rates. And people will say,
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well, a regular flu death rate is tens of thousands a year. The Wuhan virus has only killed a few
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relative to that. There you go. And every time somebody does that, I just say to myself,
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stop it. Stop it. Stop it. The stupidity is drowning me. Stop comparing the wrong things.
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Who compares a problem which by its nature is going to be logarithmically, exponentially increasing,
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but it's just starting? Who compares that to something that's already run its full course?
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Well, not smart people. Smart people do not compare a regular virus that's already done a full year of
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killing people to something that just started. Because wouldn't you expect the regular flu would
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be a big number? Because it's already done. And the new one is just starting. Who compares those?
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Who is so fucking dumb to say that in public over and over again, besides the president of the
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United States? Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. The president did the same thing. I'm not going to give him a pass
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on that. And then I turned on TV last night to Fox News. And I'm watching Sean Hannity say that.
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And I thought to myself, well, Sean, you're a smart guy. You know, it's good context to say the regular
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flu kills this many. I think that's good to know. And I'm happy that people are reporting that.
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But then he says, and the Wuhan flu is, you know, only killed this many. And then I'm waiting for
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Sean to say, but it's just starting. So you shouldn't compare something just starting to
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something that's already done. So I'm waiting for Sean to say that. And then he changes the topic.
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He keeps talking. And I'm like, oh, okay, well, maybe he'll circle back to it. And then he doesn't.
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He doesn't. And I'm thinking, that's where this shit is coming from. That's where it's coming from.
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It's coming from Fox News. I read an article last night. Who was it? Was it Margaret Sullivan or
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something? Who said that it would save lives if Rupert Murdoch would bear down on Fox News and tell
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him to stop saying basically that. And when I read that, I thought, come on, you know, this is just
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inside baseball. And, you know, it's not going to save lives if Fox News reports things differently.
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And then I watched Sean Hannity show. And I thought, no, I agree with that. I agree with
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that. If Rupert Murdoch wants to be responsible during this crisis, he should talk to Sean Hannity
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and tell him to stop doing that. He should actually just say, look, I'm the boss. It's an emergency.
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Normally, I don't bother you. You know, you do your show. That's our deal. It's not my opinion
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that's your show. It's your opinion, Sean Hannity. But stop comparing it to the flu and
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then stopping. It's fine to compare it to the normal flu and say, but people, we're just
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starting. So, you know, this new one is 10 times more dangerous. We think it could be
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far bigger than a regular flu. That would be great. But, Sean Hannity, I think you need
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to raise your game a little bit for the greater good. I'm not going to put this, because it's
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an emergency, I don't like to be hard on people. I'd rather that I would coerce people to be
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on the same side. So, Sean Hannity, and by the way, I'm a huge admirer of Sean Hannity's
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skill stack. I think I've talked about that before. If you look at the number of skills that
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Sean Hannity puts together to do what he does, it's jaw-dropping. I mean, he has a lot
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of skills that fit together really well. But I don't think one of them is economics,
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as far as I know. I don't think it is. And economists and scientists are better at comparing
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things. And I think because it's a national emergency and people do need to take this
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seriously. I think that, Sean Hannity, I would like to ask you directly to, you can still
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make, obviously, it's still helpful to say that normal flu kills a lot of people. But
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put it in context. Please. Please. I mean, it's an emergency. We need to have the best information
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out there we can. All right. So, here's some other, we'll talk about the President's address
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in a minute. Well, actually, let me talk about it now. So, it's a political season, so it's
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impossible to separate the politics from any of this stuff, even though we should. Here
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was my take on the President's address. First of all, it was somber but low energy. I don't
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know. I heard a lot of people say they loved it because it was the right tone. It's very
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weird to watch Trump be low energy and read off a teleprompter because you can tell he's
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not in his comfort zone. My take on it was it was fine in terms of the presentation. It
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was fine. It wasn't great, and he's capable of being great. But fine was all we needed.
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We just needed to hear from the President. We needed to feel like he's in charge, taking
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this seriously. He had all those notes. So, I would say there was, I didn't see anything
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I would criticize in it, but it wasn't a home run or anything. It just was a, just a good
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solid presidential speech. But interestingly, he decided to close traffic to Europe, air traffic.
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Now, here's the way I think you should look at Trump's performance. Because none of us
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are really good at evaluating presidents. We're not. We think we are. We all think we're geniuses
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at evaluating presidents, and I'm no different. But we're not good at it, and it's good to keep
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that in mind. One of the reasons that we're not good at it is we forget that the valid comparison
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would be this president in this situation, versus a different president, but the same
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situation. And that can't be evaluated. Because there is no way to evaluate a different president
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in this same situation. It can't be done. So all you know is how one person did it, and
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then you imagine how it could have been done differently, and you end up comparing your imagination
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of how it could have been done differently to what was actually done. And that's not a valid
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comparison. Because your imagination is not some kind of standard to which all things can
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be compared. That said, here's a useful way to break out your opinion. There aren't that
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many parts of this emergency that the president actually does. The president is one of the least
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important people in the emergency. I know that's weird, but he's actually bordering on irrelevant.
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And when I say that, that assumes he does the right things. The small things he does are
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right. So he needs to focus the country's attention. Done. I'd say 100% effective. He needed to do
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the things that only a president can do, such as closing the traffic from China and now closing
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it from Europe. I would say that he did those aggressively and decisively. And I give him
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N.A. for full grades for doing the things the president can do, specifically just the president's
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job. Then he asked for $2.5 billion. Congress said it's going to be closer to $8.5. He said,
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that's fine, I'll take it. You could argue he should have asked for the $8.5 first. But I don't take...
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That's just small ball. In the real world, if you've ever done anything important in the real world,
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a situation like this is not aim, fire, hit the target. That's not the world we're in.
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We're in the world of aiming wildly in the general direction because it's an emergency.
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You shoot, you see how far off you were, you adjust. So we're in... The world we're in is a
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take a shot, adjust, take a shot, adjust, adjust, adjust, adjust. It's an adjustment world. It's not
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it's not a laser focused hit the target world. And so when I see the president asked for $2.5 billion,
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but then Congress says, no, we're smarter, it's $8.5 billion, $9.5, whatever it is, you know,
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let's adjust. Happened quickly, happened without any friction, right? There was no friction to the
00:24:40.980
adjustment. So as long as you're seeing people take a shot and then adjust quickly, that's everything
00:24:46.780
you can hope for. That's your government working exactly the way you want it to. Adjust, adjust,
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adjust. So the things that the president can do, I think he nailed. Like the decisions the president
00:25:03.120
does. He put the money there, he got the right person, gave it the right attention, did the
00:25:07.480
presidential address, close the airports early. Those are all the things he can do.
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Beyond that, his messaging, I thought was poor, but also irrelevant. Because as long as he's willing
00:25:21.560
to say, blah, blah, blah, here's what I think. Now let's listen to my expert. And I think it's entirely
00:25:28.820
obvious that Dr. Fauci, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the experts that the president
00:25:38.480
has chosen are strong personalities who understand the nature of the threat. I believe Dr. Fauci and
00:25:45.980
probably the others would stand right next to the president in public and contradict him. Because
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they have. Right? Now, would a plain political person contradict the president if they were on
00:26:00.340
the same party while standing in front of him in public? Well, not so readily. You know, a lot less
00:26:06.320
likely. But I think these professionals are different cats. When you listen to Fauci speak, there's nothing
00:26:13.180
political there. There is nothing. Nothing. And that's hard to do. I mean, he is so, Fauci is so clear of
00:26:22.040
political, even vibration, that I put a lot of credit in that guy. So I have complete trust
00:26:30.600
that the experts are telling the president what needs to be told, doing the things that need to
00:26:36.120
be done. And when they do it wrong, they're adjusting. So one of the things that was wrong
00:26:41.200
was the test kits. How much? And I don't know what the details were, but the early testing stuff
00:26:46.380
was too little, didn't work, too late, whatever. So there are questions to be answered there.
00:26:52.040
But, you know, was the president of the United States aware that we didn't have enough test kits?
00:26:58.620
Well, no. But of course, the buck stops at the top. So they're adjusting. But here, too,
00:27:07.860
the same story I said with the ventilators, we should know about the test kits. I'd love to see
00:27:13.420
the news reports actually standing in the factory floor watching the people try to scramble to make
00:27:22.080
more test kits than they've ever made before. I want to see that process. And maybe there's something
00:27:26.860
we could add to it. Right? Do they need labor? Do they need funds? Do they need expertise? Do they need
00:27:34.140
me to call somebody who can make something happen faster? I'd help?
00:27:42.600
Anyway, so I thought the president's presentation was adequate. Hit all the notes. Any complaining
00:27:49.360
about it would not be substantial. So I think we're on the right track. And I agree with Naval
00:27:56.020
that the beauty of this problem is that it has a timer on it. We know with a very high degree
00:28:05.080
of certainty, because of the Chinese and South Korean experiences, we know that we can get
00:28:09.780
a hold of this. We know it'll be hard. But we know we can do it. So let's treat it like
00:28:16.520
a short-term thing that it is. I saw Mike Sertovich noted that if everybody starts doing online
00:28:27.840
education, if the colleges stay closed for a while, or maybe even the schools, the lower
00:28:33.140
schools, people might find out that they like online education better. And they might. That's
00:28:40.980
definitely a possibility. You have some other unintended consequences that are starting to
00:28:45.600
form. One is that I think telemedicine might have a resurgence. You know, it's already growing,
00:28:54.300
but I think telemedicine will get a big boost. So you'll see that. And I think you'll see
00:29:00.100
online shopping for groceries just become a thing. I just tweeted, I think I tweeted it or
00:29:06.120
liked it, I forget, a story that broke my heart today. So I'm going to tell you to break
00:29:11.340
your heart. It was a woman who was tweeting, who was telling the story, a young woman. She
00:29:17.040
was in the grocery, she was in the parking lot of her grocery store. And she heard somebody
00:29:22.400
yelling from inside a car. And it was two elderly people who were inside the car. They, they cracked
00:29:27.880
the window open. And apparently they'd been sitting in their car for 45 minutes, trying to
00:29:33.960
yell to passersby that they were afraid to get out of their car and go in public to shop
00:29:39.760
for groceries. They didn't have food. And they were yelling to people to help them. Apparently
00:29:46.180
they didn't have much of a social family support system. So these two elderly people went there
00:29:53.440
and sat in their car and yelled through a crack in the window. And finally this woman said she'd
00:29:57.900
buy them some groceries. So they, so they put out some money and a shopping list. And so
00:30:02.620
she shopped for some things and putting them, put them in her trunk. Now there might be a lot
00:30:08.740
more of that going on. There might be a lot more seniors who are panicked and don't, don't
00:30:15.540
have the capacity to get through this the best way. So I would say if you know anybody, you
00:30:22.680
know, in that over 70 age group, you might want to check up on them. And one way to help
00:30:28.680
them might be to, um, set up some online grocery shopping and maybe you have to do it for them,
00:30:35.520
but just have their address and their credit card on it. So the food would be delivered to
00:30:40.480
them directly. So, um, I don't know how to help the old people in your life, but put some
00:30:47.060
work into it. So figure out who is your most vulnerable person in your circle and then figure
00:30:53.240
out what you can do to help them. Cause this Wuhan virus is not a spectator sport. As I say,
00:30:59.280
this is, this is all of us, this is all of us doing different things and you're going to have
00:31:05.760
to help out with some elderly people. Uh, Tom Hanks and his wife apparently have the coronavirus.
00:31:11.820
Uh, they're in Australia doing a movie and it's reported that they have it. Their symptoms are mild.
00:31:17.060
But here's the thing that got me a little, uh, close to home. Uh, so Tom Hanks is 63 years old and
00:31:24.460
reportedly somebody will have to confirm this. He has type two diabetes. Is that true? And that's
00:31:31.620
one of the top risk factors. So he's over 60. That's a risk factor. And he has a special condition.
00:31:38.780
Uh, I'm sure it's well, well treated and monitored and you'd have, you know, obviously the finest
00:31:44.300
healthcare, but here's why this scares me in particular, I'm going to be 63, his exact age.
00:31:53.080
And I also have, uh, a risk condition in my case, asthma. And so I'm watching Tom Hanks,
00:32:00.080
like he's the canary in the coal mine for me. So if, if Tom Hanks survives, uh, and he's still alive in a
00:32:09.220
month, I'm going to feel a lot better about myself. Selfishly speaking, I'm sort of using him as my,
00:32:17.800
my surrogate. If he survives the coronavirus, I'm pretty sure I can. Cause you know, he's a very
00:32:23.320
healthy 63. I'm a very healthy 63, except for that one, one issue. Now, of course, my problem is,
00:32:30.700
is, uh, is a lung problem. So I probably have higher risk. Uh, if we are checking our prediction
00:32:40.160
models, I would like to check mine for you. Number one, uh, did you see the video of Kamala Harris and
00:32:50.020
Joe Biden together in which they, they pretend they're doing an endorsement and Kamala says she's
00:32:56.660
endorsing Biden. And then they do a staged artificial conversation after the, after the
00:33:03.500
director yells cut in which Kamala talks about her, I guess her supporters are called the K hive
00:33:09.680
for Kamala K hive. And Joe Biden talks directly to them and hopes that they will support him in his
00:33:16.480
campaign. But the, the actual most interesting part of the little video, because we know that
00:33:23.100
the Democrats are lining up behind Biden. So that's not surprising, but the part of the video
00:33:27.660
that is most interesting is their chemistry. Watch, watch the, uh, if you have a chance,
00:33:34.780
watch it or watch it again, watch the chemistry between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. It's really
00:33:41.540
good. It's actually really good to me anyway. I mean, I suppose I could be fooled by it, but from
00:33:48.840
an observer's perspective, they look actually like a good pair, like they have some genuine affection
00:33:54.600
and apparently the backstory is that they do because Kamala was apparently very close with
00:34:00.460
Bo Biden and therefore Joe Biden. So I think Kamala is going to be it. Best prediction I ever made
00:34:09.560
because as vice president, she would be effectively the presidential candidate. Um, but here's another
00:34:16.200
one. So I think it was fact checking me on this, but I think I'm right on this. It was January 28th
00:34:22.680
that president Trump called for the ban on travel to China, January 28th on January 24th.
00:34:31.860
Most of you watched me go absolutely crazy on Periscope yelling that we should close the borders.
00:34:39.160
So that's a four day difference. So January 24th, I was aggressively calling for the Chinese
00:34:45.800
travel to stop. And when I said it, I don't know if anybody else had, um, somebody says, wow, Scott,
00:34:57.760
you love that Harris lady, don't you? Apparently you're new here. Nobody has criticized Kamala Harris
00:35:04.360
more than I have, but that doesn't change the fact that demographically she's a good fit for the,
00:35:13.240
the ticket. And it doesn't change the fact that she has really good chemistry with Joe Biden. And,
00:35:19.280
you know, honestly, let's look at this way. If, if you assume that Joe Biden, uh, has some declining
00:35:26.640
mental, uh, situation there, who do you want as the vice president? Do you want somebody that he picked
00:35:33.240
who's just some governor that he doesn't have any connection with that just fits well within the ticket,
00:35:38.580
but wouldn't have any special connection to him? That would be kind of dangerous, wouldn't it?
00:35:45.440
Because if, if the risk that you're looking at is that Joe Biden might be, uh, you know, not fully
00:35:51.680
able to complete a term as president, you want that vice president to not just be capable of taking over
00:35:58.460
the job, but you want them to have a really good connection with the boss because that's a delicate
00:36:05.120
conversation. And it might not be a case of where a medical doctor says, okay, I'm, I'm calling the,
00:36:11.360
I'm calling it. I'm a medical doctor. You know, we need to replace the president. I, I don't know if you
00:36:17.900
wait for that. You want somebody who's close enough to the president to say in a private, in a private
00:36:24.040
conversation, you know, Joe, you saw what you did yesterday. I'm worried about it. I think we ought to have a
00:36:32.120
serious conversation about this. I think Kamala Harris might be close enough to him personally
00:36:38.500
that she could have that conversation. I don't know if a governor could, just some random vice
00:36:44.000
president he picks because it fits good on the ticket. So I think she's a guarantee anyway. So
00:36:48.680
what I'm going to say about, uh, I called for the travel ban on January 24th. The president did it on
00:36:53.220
the 28th. He's being praised for doing it early. Uh, I would like to add this to my correct predictions,
00:37:01.820
even though it wasn't in the form of a prediction, because I, I don't know if anybody in the country
00:37:08.460
said it before I did. Can anybody confirm that for me? Was there, was there any, uh, public person?
00:37:16.100
I'm sure there were private individuals, plenty of them, but was anybody in public
00:37:20.380
calling for the Chinese travel to be shut down completely before I did on January 24th?
00:37:28.080
Let me know. Cause I, I'd like to feel like, um, I was a constructive voice in that.
00:37:36.220
Uh, but I, there's no way to really know. All right. Um, let's see. How's the social distancing
00:37:46.020
coming for all of you? Um, I've just sort of track my social distancing, you know, put numbers
00:37:54.180
on it. I'm doing it in my mind. I'm not, not keeping a spreadsheet, but yesterday, for example,
00:37:59.520
um, I shook zero hands and I was in zero crowds.
00:38:06.600
And the only person I touched was Christina. So I'm doing okay. Uh, I, I've not stood. And by
00:38:18.900
the way, have you noticed that everybody in public is squirrely? Have you noticed that?
00:38:23.660
Somebody says, somebody says, shut TF up. Kamala sucks. And everyone knows that. Uh, maybe some of you
00:38:35.140
are new, but on this periscope, we're allowed to say that somebody does things well, but also does
00:38:41.620
some other things not well. If you can't handle that, you're on the wrong periscope. Yeah. The
00:38:48.580
minimum requirement for being able to watch this periscope is that you have to be able to say that
00:38:53.480
people are not all bad or all good and groups are not all bad or all good. Well, okay. There's
00:38:58.900
probably some groups that are all bad, uh, but we don't talk about them too much. So, you know,
00:39:05.220
try to, try to improve your game so that you can accept that people could be good at things and bad
00:39:10.380
at other things. It's a thing. It really is. Um, NBA got canceled. All the rallies are canceled.
00:39:18.580
Um, remember I told you yesterday that the president should have gone first because whoever
00:39:24.120
goes first just looks like they're the smart one. Cause you know, it's all going to happen.
00:39:27.680
Might as well go first. Um, the weirdest, just the weirdest story about this NBA cancellation is that
00:39:36.340
the, so there was one player, Gobert, G O B E R T, or is it Gobert? This is again, makes me feel
00:39:45.500
like the simulation is winking at me that, that the guy who's in the story has a Bert as the last
00:39:51.560
part of his name, Gobert. Anyway, so he's a basketball player and prior to be prior to being
00:40:00.480
tested and finding out that he is the first NBA player confirmed to have the coronavirus
00:40:05.740
prior to testing. This is the funny part. Before he was testing, he's giving one of these little
00:40:11.620
pressers where each of the players come out, you know, by themselves and talk to the press
00:40:16.520
and he jokingly stands up and makes a joke about the coronavirus. And then in front of the cameras,
00:40:23.300
he jokingly touches all the microphones and all the places like he's joking that he's going to
00:40:29.040
spread the coronavirus to whoever comes next to the microphone. He did that on camera,
00:40:35.280
joking. And at the time he did it, he didn't know he would be the first person tested to actually have
00:40:45.000
coronavirus. What, what is happening? Is the simulation, is it just screaming at us to know
00:40:54.920
that this is made up? I mean, does that seem real? Was there, was there one other basketball player
00:41:01.460
that we could find video footage, video meaning, you know, that you actually see it in which they
00:41:08.840
were joking about having the coronavirus? Was there even one other player anywhere in the,
00:41:14.940
in the professional athlete world? The only one who joked about it on camera is also the first one to
00:41:21.260
be confirmed to have it? What's happening? How is that even possible? Somebody says he's pronounced
00:41:28.460
Gobert, which sounds, sounds correct. All right. So I think the, the world of large social gatherings,
00:41:40.700
I can see two things happening. You know, I had always predicted that large gatherings would have
00:41:46.820
to be canceled, at least outdoor gatherings because of drones, you know, and terrorists. It just seemed like
00:41:53.580
that was obvious, but maybe the, the other reason will be pandemics. And by the way, it's officially
00:42:00.580
a pandemic, which changes nothing. Let's talk about the worst forms of loser think I'm seeing here.
00:42:06.860
I mentioned one, and I'm just going to run through this list. You've heard some of this,
00:42:12.200
but it's worth reminding you because you're going to see so much of it. One is that people are comparing
00:42:18.920
Italy, who's having all kinds of trouble with their hospitals. Their hospitals are overloaded with
00:42:24.140
Corona or Wu, Wuhan virus patients. And people are saying, but don't worry about that, Scott,
00:42:33.120
because that's Italy. You know, Italy is not the United States. We're not going to have that kind
00:42:38.680
of problem. They just have, you know, whatever lesser healthcare services or whatever. Now that's
00:42:45.260
loser thick. And here's why you do not compare, or you should not rationally compare the Italian
00:42:52.340
situation right now to any future American situation. The, the accurate and useful comparison
00:42:59.420
is Italy now with the Corona virus versus Italy with a normal virus in other years with just the
00:43:07.620
normal flu. Have their medical facilities ever been overrun? And the answer is no. So that's
00:43:15.240
why you need to know that this virus is not like other viruses. Don't feel that you're safe because
00:43:21.160
that's only going to happen to some country that has less resources or something. Because even in
00:43:27.100
the top hospitals, you know, the really high end hospitals in Italy, they're still having the same
00:43:32.180
problem. It has nothing to do with the quality of the medical care or anything. It's just a bad flu.
00:43:39.280
So the first loser think is comparing other countries to us. You should only compare those other
00:43:44.580
countries to themselves in the past with the regular flu. That's your best comparison.
00:43:50.620
Now, other people say, Scott, Scott, Scott, if you think this flu is bad, explain to me why South Korea
00:43:57.860
has already got apparently control on it. So their number of new cases was declining.
00:44:03.540
To which I say, that's the exception that proved the rule. South Korea did what nobody else could do,
00:44:11.380
just massive testing and social distancing and fast acting and, you know, just really dramatic
00:44:18.040
changes very quickly. And it worked, apparently. Or at least it worked in the sense of slowing it down.
00:44:26.140
I don't think we're going to eradicate it right away. But what you should learn from that is if you take
00:44:32.400
drastic action, you can slow it down. That shouldn't tell you anything about what's happening in Italy
00:44:37.960
because they didn't do that. It's just a different situation. And of course, don't compare the regular
00:44:45.960
flu to this flu because the regular flu has already run its course. We know it's full numbers. This one's
00:44:52.160
just starting. And the risk is that it ramps up faster than those other ones. So understand the
00:44:56.820
difference. So those are the main things. All right. Here's some more loser think in the form of
00:45:08.320
analogy. This is from actor Kumail Nanjiani. I think he's the actor on Silicon Valley, if I'm correct.
00:45:20.440
He might be a stand-up comedian too. I'm not sure what he does. Anyway, he offers this analogy
00:45:26.160
about closing the flights to Europe from Europe. He says, trying to fight the coronavirus by
00:45:32.480
limiting travel between Europe and the U.S. is like trying to clean a coffee spill by washing
00:45:38.840
the coffee cup. So it's actually a clever analogy. So in terms of cleverness, it's an A+. And it's
00:45:47.940
basically a version of closing the barn door after the horse got out. So he's basically just
00:45:52.960
saying it's too late. To which I say, what? What is wrong with your brain? If there's new virus coming
00:46:02.340
in from Europe all the time, it's never too late. It can't be too late if new virus is coming into the
00:46:10.880
country and it's not already here in the same amount or worse. So using an analogy of a coffee cup
00:46:19.380
is so non-rational, non-thinking craziness. Now, what are the odds? I didn't look at his biography,
00:46:30.700
but what are the odds that Kumail Nanjiani, who's an actor by profession, what are the odds that he
00:46:36.560
also has a background in science or STEM or economics? Probably low, you know, unless he just thought it
00:46:44.600
was funny, I suppose. And he knew it wasn't logical, but it was funny. Can't rule that out.
00:46:49.560
Here's another one. Another opinion. And the funny part is who it comes from. So I'll tell you the
00:46:56.240
opinion first, and then I'll tell you who it comes from. Okay? So that's the fun part. All right. So
00:47:01.940
this is from a tweet. It says, we're weeks past the point when suspending travel from Europe could
00:47:08.380
have even remotely been seen as a strong measure to prevent coronavirus spread. And then the tweet
00:47:16.040
goes on. This is Stephen Miller orchestrated xenophobic sleight of hand. So that the real
00:47:22.840
clever plan here is xenophobia. And the tweet goes on. We need solutions for the crisis we're facing at
00:47:31.260
home right now. All right. So this is somebody who thinks we're weeks past the point when suspending
00:47:38.740
travel from Europe would have been seen as a strong measure. What? I'm pretty sure everybody
00:47:46.920
who was surprised by it last night thought it was a pretty strong measure. What would be a stronger
00:47:53.960
measure than closing travel from Europe? Which, by the way, a lot of Europeans are white. Just
00:48:02.940
saying. Just saying. Doesn't seem so racist. So this is one of the dumbest, if I'm being honest,
00:48:12.880
this is one of the dumbest, lowest level of thinking and awareness I could ever see. You've
00:48:20.700
got this ongoing flow of problems. And the president stopped it before anybody even thought it was on
00:48:27.660
the table. And this guy says it should have happened sooner. Which is literally a chapter in my book,
00:48:34.500
Loser Think. If you look back on my shelf. Maybe it's not there anymore. Oh, there it is. It's this one.
00:48:42.540
It's called Loser Think. You can't see it because of the light. But there's actually a section in there
00:48:50.900
where I'm talking about exactly this. All right. We're talking about exactly the fact that you can
00:49:00.560
always say that something should have been sooner. So that's actually a chapter in the book called
00:49:07.660
Loser Think about bad ways of thinking is that no matter what you do and how good it is, somebody's going
00:49:14.880
to say you should have done it sooner. Right? Because you can always do it sooner. There's no exception to you
00:49:21.400
should have done it sooner in the real world. I mean, hypothetically, there could be, you know, in a
00:49:27.060
technical sense. But in the real world, there's never an exception. You always could have done it sooner. So that's
00:49:33.600
the dumbest complaint because it's just universally true. So who is this guy who makes the dumbest point
00:49:43.100
in public without knowing it's so dumb you should not say this sort of thing in public? What kind of
00:49:49.100
job would this guy have in which he's so dumb? And so I checked his profile and he was the communication
00:50:00.200
and strategy for campaigns and candidates. And he was the former national press secretary for
00:50:07.020
Kamala Harris. That's right. The guy, the guy who was part of the campaign that I had identified
00:50:18.660
months ago as the worst, really the worst campaign I've ever seen. He was on that campaign. And sure
00:50:27.060
enough, I had identified him as extra stupid from his tweet. And then I looked to see where
00:50:32.360
he works. And I find that I had already identified that campaign as extra incompetent. Coincidence?
00:50:41.500
I don't know. Yeah, his name is Ian Sams. Not that that matters. All right.
00:50:48.720
I think that's about what's going on. I don't know what's happening with this Kamala Harris
00:50:59.580
thing. It's sort of weird because I feel like I'll say ABC and then I'll watch right in front
00:51:08.220
of me and people will say, Scott, why are you saying XYZ? And I'll say, well, I'm not. I just
00:51:15.420
said ABC. And I reject XYZ. And then within five seconds, somebody will say, but why do
00:51:24.020
you love XYZ? And I'll say, I don't know what's happening. What's happening? No, my view on Kamala
00:51:32.600
Harris is that she's likely to be the vice president. I don't think she is my first choice for anything.
00:51:37.800
But there you have it. She's got some skills and she's got lots of issues that she needs
00:51:44.480
to improve. Why can't I say that? What's wrong with that?
00:51:51.100
Let me say, so I'm seeing somebody in the comments use, I think it was James Woods who
00:51:57.200
tried to nickname Kamala Harris as Heels Up because she has some history of a relationship
00:52:03.600
with Willie Brown, politician in California that helped her career. Both Willie Brown and she
00:52:09.620
admit that's true. And for me, that's the end of the story. You know, once all the people that once
00:52:16.420
all the people who are involved said, yeah, that's kind of true. That's true. Aren't we done? I mean,
00:52:24.680
once you get people to say, yeah, that's totally true. Yeah, my relationship. Yeah, that helps.
00:52:29.020
They helped my campaign. Aren't we done? What else is there to say about that? Blaming
00:52:35.260
people for things that they acknowledge is a true statement of fact should be the end of
00:52:41.520
the story, should be the end of the conversation. I think I'm going to start blocking people
00:52:49.960
who say Scott has a crush on AOC. That's, I saw that go by in the comments. I'll give you
00:52:56.900
one day of, I'll give you one day of amnesty. Okay. But after today, you will be blocked for
00:53:05.300
dumbness for accusing me of being in love with some female politician just because they're
00:53:12.440
part of the conversation. Okay. We can, we can be a little better than that. So we'll just
00:53:19.100
block you going forward. Bitcoin just fell off the cliff this morning, right? But that
00:53:29.080
you have to check it every five minutes. Good Lord. Holy hell. The stock market's really taken
00:53:37.100
a dump. Bitcoin is down to seven. I'm sorry. It's not down to seven. I'm looking at a fund
00:53:45.020
so that has a different pricing. But it's down 19% today. So it looks like it's down to a new
00:53:51.200
low. Twitter down 9%. Amazon down 4%. Wow. Now all of that, I would refer you back to Naval's
00:54:03.900
comment. This is no time for panic selling, but it looks like a lot of people are doing
00:54:08.240
panic selling. Somebody's testing me by saying Scott has a crush on AOC and your test was successful.
00:54:21.680
You got blocked. You love her? Block. A lot of people want to get blocked today. I don't
00:54:29.060
know why. Somebody says, you said you'd never mentioned racist AOC, but that was a lie. Did I
00:54:47.480
ever say that? If I did, I didn't mean it. Did you see Pence's interview? I did not.
00:54:56.280
Dow is down 2,000. Yeah, you know, I just wouldn't worry about the stock market, honestly,
00:55:03.480
because it's going to do what it's going to do and your share of stuff will be the same.
00:55:10.260
All right. Slaughter meter. Well, the slaughter meter is in a state of flux right now. You know,
00:55:17.000
if the election were held today, it would be a total slaughter and the president would win
00:55:21.760
gigantically. But there's so much happening with the coronavirus. And you know, this is going to be
00:55:28.240
a frothy year. Whatever problems we have, we're going to have new ones in the summer. It's just that
00:55:33.460
kind of year. So nothing's predictable anymore. But if the election were held today, President Trump
00:55:40.680
would win in a slaughter. Somebody says, hope you took your money out. I don't do that. So market timing
00:55:51.420
is not something I do. So if you're doing market timing, good luck. Some of you win. Some of you will
00:56:00.740
get wiped out. It's just not my thing. Somebody says, you need to go to my interface at one hub
00:56:11.520
profile. Yeah. Blockers going to block. All right. We're just looking at your comments. You know,
00:56:27.420
if you don't follow Mark Schneider on Twitter, you really should, because there's all kinds of stuff
00:56:35.160
happening in the nuclear energy field. And you could argue it's the biggest news in the world
00:56:40.720
that doesn't get covered. Because what could be more important to the, you know, let's say the future
00:56:47.800
of civilization? What could be more important than developing these new miniature nuclear power
00:56:55.960
plants? And, you know, we've got free, safe, clean energy that solves any risks that you might
00:57:02.440
imagine from climate change, et cetera. It's like the biggest story. And almost every day, there's a
00:57:07.840
new story about something got funded, something's going into a test site, the government approved
00:57:13.520
something. There's a ton of stuff happening in the nuclear energy field. But I think all of it is in
00:57:19.960
the getting ready for stuff, you know, kind of domain, so that when stuff starts getting online,
00:57:28.020
it's going to happen really quickly. So in other words, there's a point where you're not going to
00:57:32.160
see anything tangible, but there's just a ton of activity. And that's what we're in right now
00:57:36.480
for nuclear power. But you're not going to see the plants for, I don't know, maybe in five years,
00:57:42.780
people will start showing you pictures of the nearly completed plant and stuff. But it's going to
00:57:47.720
happen quickly when it happens. It's just not happening yet. One of the weird things about
00:57:55.800
this economy is that not everybody is going to be affected. There will be businesses that just do
00:58:03.520
better. I've been trying to game it out in my head, like what's likely to happen, because we've never
00:58:09.440
seen a situation where everybody stopped traveling for three months, right? Like, I don't think we've seen
00:58:15.860
that situation. So we're all just guessing what happens. Now, one thing that happens is a bunch
00:58:21.140
of people save their money. So for everybody who loses a paycheck, and I hope we can figure out
00:58:27.140
something to do about that, because that's a pretty big problem, a real big problem. But for everybody
00:58:33.720
who loses a paycheck, for every small business that loses customers, and there will be a lot of them,
00:58:38.780
I feel as though there may be an equal number of people who still get their paycheck, just like
00:58:46.120
always, even if their employer is not doing so well. You know, they're not losing money yet. So they'll
00:58:51.560
still get their paycheck, and they won't be spending as much. So you have this weird situation where
00:58:57.060
there's a whole bunch of people who just by luck were not affected. They get their paycheck, and they
00:59:02.960
don't spend as much. So they're building up their little savings account, while other people are
00:59:07.980
suffering. What happens the day things, you know, let's say when things go back to normal, what
00:59:14.160
happens with the people who have extra money? Do they spend it extra fast, or does it become part
00:59:20.440
of their permanent savings? If the people who actually gained money during this, and I might be one of them,
00:59:26.600
by the way, so I'm a perfect example. As far as I know, at least in the short run, my income will be
00:59:34.680
roughly the same. Because, you know, at least for the next three months, everything was sort of in
00:59:41.060
the pipeline. Most newspapers will still be in business, and all that. So at the end of three
00:59:47.520
months, I will have saved a bunch of money that I normally would have spent. I would have traveled,
00:59:54.200
I might have bought more stuff, I would have gone out more, I would have gone out to restaurants more.
00:59:58.100
What happens to that money? Now, in my case, you know, maybe I have enough money, so it doesn't make
01:00:03.080
any difference in the world. But it could be half of the country has extra spending that's pent up,
01:00:11.180
and they've been locked in their houses for three months. So you might see an outpouring of spending
01:00:17.440
like we've never seen before, just because it's possible. You know, the people who are living
01:00:23.720
paycheck to paycheck, let's say as a server for a restaurant, they weren't going on big expensive
01:00:29.620
vacations anyway. So for them, the job is to survive, you know, to buy the basics. But there
01:00:39.040
are a lot of people who are going to have some extra cash, and they're going to spend like crazy
01:00:42.840
unless they just put it into the stock market, which is also possible. Oh, by the way, all that
01:00:48.160
cash that came out of the market, that's got to go somewhere, right? People don't sit on cash in the
01:00:55.200
long run. It's not a thing. Nobody does it. It won't happen. So all of that, like trillions and
01:01:01.300
trillions of dollars that just people took out of the market, they parked it somewhere. Where's it
01:01:06.620
going? It doesn't disappear. It just moved. And as long as it's still there, it's going to move back
01:01:14.400
when it needs to. So here's the long story short, that you're going to see a recovery that happens so
01:01:22.660
fast it'll make your head snap. So anybody who's not in the market when the turnaround happens,
01:01:29.320
because it's probably going to be like, you know, just two or three days, the whole world is going to
01:01:33.620
say, well, it's back, it's back, it's back, get in, get in, get in, get in, get in. So when it turns
01:01:37.800
back up, you're going to miss a lot of gain as it goes up. So it's not a time I would be out of the
01:01:46.240
market, but I'm not giving you financial advice. That's all I got for now. Oh, I'm over time.
01:01:55.480
Let's go back to our day. And you have a good day.