Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 17, 2020


Episode 854 Scott Adams： Special Crisis Periscope Because What Else Have I Got To Do？


Episode Stats

Length

30 minutes

Words per Minute

152.68532

Word Count

4,725

Sentence Count

394

Hate Speech Sentences

4


Summary

In this episode, I talk about how the public is stepping up to the plate during the coronavirus crisis, and some ideas to help people relax during the worst of the worst. I also talk about some of the things you can do to make sure you re not losing your mind.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, I know a lot of you are probably watching the Bernie Sanders live stream of music right now, which I gotta say, Bernie, thank you, excellent job.
00:00:20.820 So Bernie, I guess, instead of his rally, got some bands and got Neil Young to sing live on Periscope, and he was promoting Bernie, and I think he's somewhere remotely.
00:00:32.280 But the rest of us, we just get to listen to really good music. I don't know if you tuned in to any of that, but it was great.
00:00:39.780 So congratulations, Bernie. Great job during the virus. Creative and good for the public. I appreciate it.
00:00:50.820 Somebody says, not now, Tucker's on. Sorry. You've got Tucker recorded, or you can watch me record it. It works both ways.
00:01:01.800 So, keep me company while I set up my desk. That's why I'm here. I am literally here to keep you company.
00:01:11.340 We are going to have a paucity of entertainment, unless people step up, and according to the Bernie Sanders live stream, it looks like people are.
00:01:23.520 I'll try to do the same.
00:01:25.380 I tweeted earlier that I predict there will be a bunch of outdoor drive-in theaters popping up, because it's really easy to do.
00:01:37.120 You can buy a little projector for yourself, put it on a wall. All you need is a screen of some sort, some kind of flat surface, and a place to park.
00:01:48.540 So, how hard would it be for somebody to just turn a parking lot into a drive-in movie? Couldn't you do it?
00:01:56.860 Now, I think what you'd need to do is you'd have to get the sound into the car, but that seems doable.
00:02:03.280 It must be an app that can stream a, how hard would that be, stream the movie into your car, and then play it, you know, optionally, you could play it through your speakers.
00:02:14.120 Then everybody during the coronavirus crisis can just drive up in the car, watch the movie.
00:02:20.700 If you do it in your neighborhood, you might have to use the bathroom at home.
00:02:24.980 I guess bathroom would be a problem.
00:02:27.360 But you're going to see a lot of creativity.
00:02:29.120 Anyway, here's what I've been thinking about.
00:02:33.300 Because I find my role during the crisis is to make people feel more relaxed.
00:02:41.560 Because once you've done everything you can do, everything the government tells you to do,
00:02:46.260 well, your job after that is to relax.
00:02:48.400 That's actually your job, because you need to stay healthy.
00:02:51.860 You need to keep your immune system up.
00:02:54.380 You don't need any stress.
00:02:56.420 So do what you need to do, but then it's your job to relax for health reasons and for the benefit of the country.
00:03:05.100 So let me tell you some things to help you relax.
00:03:09.500 That's what we're going to do here today.
00:03:11.040 The first thing you need to know is that while there have been some publicized missteps in the beginning of this thing,
00:03:20.880 the country is really stepping up, really, really stepping up, very impressive.
00:03:27.500 And let me give you one concrete example of that.
00:03:30.200 When I had the suggestion of allowing doctors to practice across state lines,
00:03:39.660 that idea ended up in the hands of the president's chief of staff, I think in an hour.
00:03:47.240 I think it took one hour for just an ordinary good idea that doctors should temporarily at least be able to practice across state lines.
00:03:55.800 It took an hour, one hour.
00:03:59.900 That idea was literally in the hands of Mark Meadows, or in his brain.
00:04:05.220 He said it sounded like something you wanted to look into, and then I got a confirmation back in one hour.
00:04:12.860 Now, that's not the only time that's happened.
00:04:14.600 It's just kind of a clean example.
00:04:16.360 But for whatever accident of history, I ended up being sort of a filter and curator of some ideas that people are sending up.
00:04:27.840 And they don't know who to talk to.
00:04:29.920 In some cases, they don't know who to connect to.
00:04:32.060 And I just happened to be able to do that.
00:04:34.740 So the stuff you're not seeing is working really well.
00:04:40.560 Well, the people who are restocking the shelves, etc., they're working hard.
00:04:46.140 There's a lot of good stuff happening and more coming.
00:04:49.360 So I want to talk about some of the thinking past the sale here a little bit.
00:04:54.380 Sooner or later, we're going to get a handle on this thing.
00:04:57.500 We're going to get control of it, like we always do.
00:05:01.800 If you bet against humanity, well, you're on the wrong side.
00:05:06.380 It's a bad bet.
00:05:07.100 But we're good at this stuff, and this is nowhere near something that's going to take us down.
00:05:12.520 Nowhere near.
00:05:13.600 This is an annoyance that has some weird unintended benefits.
00:05:20.380 Now, I'm not losing sight of the hard times ahead.
00:05:24.940 But it doesn't hurt to just take your mind off of that for a while.
00:05:29.280 And here are a few things that I could identify.
00:05:32.600 Okay, this seemed to me likely to be better in the future because of the virus.
00:05:38.020 Now, you can, you know, quibble with some of them, but we'll let me run through.
00:05:41.880 The first thing that's going to be better is science.
00:05:44.460 Maybe not every branch of science.
00:05:46.400 But because of this crisis, suddenly a whole bunch of people who would not have met each other met.
00:05:54.360 That's a big deal.
00:05:55.680 When you take all these geniuses in the world, really the smartest people in this field, and you say, now, you don't have a choice.
00:06:02.340 You're working together.
00:06:03.860 You're going to cross-pollinate.
00:06:05.700 You're going to share ideas, and you're still going to know each other when it's done.
00:06:08.340 And this is huge.
00:06:10.900 I mean, it's enormous, but also kind of invisible because the benefits are down the line, and you'll never really know what one came out of it.
00:06:19.040 But when you put this many of the brightest people in the world together on the same problem, they don't stay, you know, they don't lose touch.
00:06:27.940 That becomes a permanent, like part of a, you know, society's brain, if you will, that just, you know, just got organized by this problem.
00:06:35.660 So in a sense, this virus is like, you know, any blow to the body, let's say your muscles, if you overwork them, well, they break down, and then they build back stronger.
00:06:46.800 And you see, I think you'll see that with science.
00:06:48.740 You're also seeing participant in government.
00:06:51.880 I didn't know what to call it, but the example that I used before where average citizens are just saying, I could build a factory.
00:07:00.820 You know, I could get that done.
00:07:02.880 I mean, maybe not with my hands and my own hands, but I could make that happen.
00:07:07.400 People saying, I can solve this problem.
00:07:09.740 I can help this person.
00:07:11.820 You know, I could find somebody who needs something.
00:07:14.400 So we've created this, and the Internet helps, you know, tremendously to this.
00:07:20.280 Because we've created a participant kind of a government, where that distinction between what's the government and what is the people has somewhat, you know, got a little murky, right?
00:07:34.220 Because is Fauci the government, or is he a scientist?
00:07:37.480 Are all the scientists the government?
00:07:39.140 Are they private?
00:07:40.780 What about all the people who are working with the government?
00:07:42.760 It's like the government and the public just became this, you know, this single creature.
00:07:49.360 And maybe some of the good parts we'll keep, specifically the part about bubbling up good ideas.
00:07:55.980 I think this process is going to identify new leaders.
00:08:00.180 Now, it's a presidential season, but I'm not talking about that.
00:08:03.440 I'm simply talking about the fact that, let me use this example.
00:08:08.080 If you were in a crowded cafe, and there was an explosion outside, and you thought it was bad, whatever it is,
00:08:16.440 most of the people in the cafe are going to get up and run, because they should.
00:08:21.940 But in that cafe, there will be three people who stand up and walk directly toward the danger.
00:08:29.140 Because there's something about humans that we breed heroes.
00:08:34.540 Not all of us, obviously.
00:08:35.900 And if those three people ended up needing more help, people who were not heroes would just become heroes.
00:08:45.700 Almost spontaneously.
00:08:47.720 You know, we're sort of like chameleons like that.
00:08:50.120 We run when running away makes sense.
00:08:52.780 But then when it doesn't, ordinary people just become heroes.
00:08:56.880 You're seeing it every day.
00:08:57.760 It's happening all over the world.
00:09:00.100 So we're going to identify new leaders.
00:09:02.840 I don't know what that means.
00:09:04.080 I don't know if any of them will become permanent leaders.
00:09:07.120 But you'll know who they were.
00:09:09.320 You will know who they were.
00:09:12.540 Our pandemic defense is getting a real good test, you know, test.
00:09:18.780 Except, unfortunately, it's a real thing.
00:09:22.300 Will it be better after this is done?
00:09:25.080 Absolutely.
00:09:26.120 Was this the biggest problem we'll ever have with a pandemic?
00:09:29.000 Probably not.
00:09:32.120 So having the one that doesn't kill you and tells you, oh, for sure, there might be one later that does, that allows us to strengthen our defense.
00:09:43.640 When this is over, we will be the strongest we've ever been as a civilization.
00:09:48.420 Because we'll have this.
00:09:50.540 And right now, it's one of our biggest vulnerabilities as a species, if you will.
00:09:56.520 Home delivery, of course, will just go through the roof.
00:09:59.180 I heard Amazon is looking to hire 100,000 more people.
00:10:04.040 Safeway, apparently, is hiring like crazy.
00:10:06.820 That's my local grocery store.
00:10:09.260 And I had no problem at all door dashing.
00:10:13.980 Now, I don't know if that will change.
00:10:15.660 But I'm ordering food from local restaurants because that may be the change that's coming.
00:10:22.680 The change that's coming might be that restaurants become more like kitchens and maybe the costs go down with volume and stuff.
00:10:29.460 And at least for a while, we'll keep them alive with ordering from them.
00:10:34.620 And that also takes the burden off of your emergency supplies because the restaurants are well-stocked.
00:10:40.420 You know, they have more than they can sell right now.
00:10:42.640 So buy from your local restaurant.
00:10:44.980 Save the beans and rice just in case.
00:10:47.520 I don't think you're going to need them.
00:10:48.720 I'll talk about that in a minute.
00:10:51.420 I think our hygiene as a people, permanently approved.
00:10:55.620 I think we are permanently a more hygienic species after this because we're building habits.
00:11:02.460 It's in our heads.
00:11:03.800 It's in our training.
00:11:05.480 Good hygiene.
00:11:06.240 How many lives will that save?
00:11:08.240 Well, it will save more.
00:11:10.900 I can confidently predict this.
00:11:13.640 That we will save more lives with all the hygiene reflexes that people are developing than we will lose with the coronavirus.
00:11:23.660 We will come out ahead.
00:11:25.480 It just won't be right away.
00:11:28.720 Fitness.
00:11:29.280 A lot of people are taking the advice to use this excuse to get healthy.
00:11:36.040 Nobody is going to argue with you, especially if you're, you know, an older or less over 50.
00:11:42.380 But they're not going to argue with anybody when you say, I have to take a walk.
00:11:46.540 I just, I have to go for a run.
00:11:49.240 I've got to lift some weights.
00:11:50.340 Yeah, at home.
00:11:51.340 You know, I wouldn't go to the gym.
00:11:52.900 But you're going to learn to do it at home.
00:11:57.120 Try walking.
00:11:57.860 So, I did a little experiment.
00:12:00.680 You know, stress is kind of high with everybody.
00:12:03.260 So, yesterday, I did not take a long walk.
00:12:06.620 It's the first time in a long time.
00:12:08.280 And I've got to tell you, my mental state was far more, let's say, brittle than it was on all the days that I walked.
00:12:19.920 So, then the next day I walked and I just said, all right, now do a little internal survey.
00:12:24.540 And by the way, I recommend this.
00:12:25.780 You should always do a little audit of your mental state after you've done a physical thing, especially exercise and especially eating any particular type of food.
00:12:39.060 Just see how you feel for a few hours after.
00:12:42.340 And I can tell you that after a long walk, it wasn't, you know, it wasn't exhausting.
00:12:46.040 It was just a nice, good, long walk.
00:12:47.880 I came back and my mental state was excellent.
00:12:51.820 Slept like a baby.
00:12:53.320 It was great.
00:12:53.900 So, if you don't do anything else, you should take a walk every day, really.
00:13:00.720 All right.
00:13:02.340 Our prepping skills are going to be much better.
00:13:05.620 If there's any other future time that something comes up, wow, are we going to be better at this.
00:13:11.720 All right.
00:13:12.520 I'm not saying that, you know, that's a good thing, that we have, you know, another tragedy, of course, but we'll be ready for it.
00:13:19.580 So, that's good.
00:13:20.760 What about the online school?
00:13:23.120 I think we'll move faster to online.
00:13:25.640 I think the UBI situation, in my opinion, the UBI idea of, at least temporarily during the crisis, giving people who need it, I don't know, maybe everybody, but people who need it at least $1,000 a month, maybe more.
00:13:42.820 Who knows?
00:13:43.340 But something like that, I would almost guarantee that's going to happen.
00:13:48.960 That's as close to definitely happening as just about anything I could think of.
00:13:55.080 And the reason that I'm going to say it's close to definitely going to happen is that it looks like it might be necessary.
00:14:01.760 And here's why you know it's going to happen.
00:14:06.940 Rich people want it to.
00:14:09.600 Right?
00:14:10.700 And that's the problem.
00:14:11.620 Basically, rich people are going to say, yes, UBI, let's crank it out.
00:14:19.480 And, you know, I don't think you'll get disagreement.
00:14:21.500 This is not a Democrat thing.
00:14:22.840 This is not a Republican thing.
00:14:24.020 And if all the rich people agree, which they never had agreed on UBI before, I mean, it had been polarizing kind of a topic that was growing in popularity, but at the moment, to save the people who literally can't buy food, you're not going to find a rich person who says no to that.
00:14:43.580 And if you do, steal their food.
00:14:47.100 You have my permission.
00:14:48.900 Not really.
00:14:49.960 Not really.
00:14:50.480 Somebody said, Naval says, what is stupid?
00:14:54.940 The UBI?
00:14:55.920 I don't think he's talking about the UBI for an emergency situation.
00:15:00.460 So I don't know that we'll ever move to UBI permanently.
00:15:03.640 You know, some kind of a $1,000 a month situation, no matter what you do.
00:15:07.700 But we will test it.
00:15:09.900 And wouldn't that be good to have a test?
00:15:12.100 I think our health care system will be forever better because of all the things we learned.
00:15:16.180 I think there are lots of regulations that will never come back because once they were gone, people didn't miss them.
00:15:22.440 I think the risk to our supply chain, which at the moment, I think is actually kind of low.
00:15:28.300 Yeah.
00:15:28.580 If I had to, you know, put money on it, then I guess I have.
00:15:32.020 I guess I have put money on it because I still have my money in the stock market.
00:15:34.640 But the supply chain is something we do well.
00:15:40.040 And food will come back first.
00:15:41.880 You're never going to have a problem with energy.
00:15:43.920 I don't see any chance of that.
00:15:45.640 You'll have water.
00:15:47.040 You'll have all the basics.
00:15:48.320 The garbage will get picked up, I imagine.
00:15:50.920 And we'll go on.
00:15:54.780 So I think everything is heading in the direction of under control.
00:16:00.660 Somebody says, where does the money come from?
00:16:02.260 Well, it would drive up the debt.
00:16:04.480 But the reason I said that it's important that rich people agreed to it, I just realized I had my headphones on.
00:16:12.140 I'm probably talking too loud.
00:16:17.420 Somebody says, you're making me feel terrible.
00:16:19.940 Why?
00:16:21.300 What have I said that makes you feel terrible?
00:16:24.900 So the debt will go up no matter what.
00:16:26.880 That's just a given.
00:16:29.780 But we can figure a way out of this.
00:16:32.920 All right.
00:16:34.660 Yeah, Trump tweeted that this virus is the Chinese virus.
00:16:38.180 So that just happened.
00:16:40.340 I got a mixed opinion on that.
00:16:42.760 And it goes like this.
00:16:44.740 In ordinary times, I wouldn't have any problem with the president doing his usual provocative stuff.
00:16:50.520 And, you know, he knows how to do it.
00:16:55.240 He knows how to provoke.
00:16:56.440 And then people would say, ah, you racist.
00:16:58.680 Stop calling it a Chinese virus.
00:17:01.080 And then he would say, but that's where it started.
00:17:03.860 It has nothing to do with racism.
00:17:05.400 And then he would get all the attention.
00:17:08.520 And, you know, it looks like a play that he's played lots of times before.
00:17:12.800 But it doesn't feel right in a crisis, does it?
00:17:19.260 It feels small.
00:17:21.540 So I wish he hadn't done it.
00:17:23.900 I think it was a mistake.
00:17:25.720 You know, I've never said he's made more communication mistakes than this week.
00:17:32.660 But I also think that, you know, the experts are doing a great job.
00:17:36.840 And the country is doing a great job.
00:17:38.860 And I think the president did what he needed to do.
00:17:41.080 Just the communication.
00:17:44.240 He's just not ahead in the communication this week.
00:17:46.720 It's like he's a little tone deaf or something.
00:17:49.480 And, but here's the softening of that.
00:17:56.180 The president might be preparing us for decoupling.
00:18:00.140 Now, let me say it a different way.
00:18:03.760 The president is preparing us for decoupling.
00:18:07.940 And if calling it a Chinese virus makes you feel worse about China,
00:18:13.380 and it makes it a little easier to decouple and bring our supply chain back,
00:18:18.920 well, okay.
00:18:20.680 You know, I'm going to give him a pass.
00:18:22.780 So I can have two opinions on this, and I think that they can live together.
00:18:27.140 One opinion is, didn't like it.
00:18:29.060 It wasn't the right time.
00:18:31.020 Under normal circumstances, sure.
00:18:32.840 Have some fun with it.
00:18:34.420 But right now, not the right time.
00:18:36.800 However, we are in crisis mode, and nitpicking the president's words is sort of beneath all of us.
00:18:44.060 But you asked the question.
00:18:45.080 I'm just trying to, I'm just trying to be conversational here.
00:18:49.660 I think you've got to let that stuff go, for now.
00:18:55.300 Whether it's the president, whether it's somebody else, whether it's your most hated pundit on TV,
00:19:03.220 just kind of got to let the little stuff go, just for a while.
00:19:06.440 You can get back to chewing each other to death whenever we're back to normal.
00:19:12.300 But the president is preparing us for decoupling.
00:19:16.920 If that's what he had in mind when he was framing it that way, I'd say, hmm, yeah, okay.
00:19:23.300 I can see that.
00:19:24.580 It's just, you know, maybe not the perfect time.
00:19:29.500 All right.
00:19:30.180 It is a Chinese virus.
00:19:33.460 Say what it is.
00:19:34.600 Name your enemy to effectively fight.
00:19:37.200 Well, I don't think there's any chance that it's an intentional, you know, any kind of bioweapon.
00:19:44.500 So I think we need to leave that behind.
00:19:50.860 Do we all agree?
00:19:52.160 For a long time, I was open to the question of, gosh, where did this come from?
00:19:58.460 I'm still open to the question it could have come out of, you know, some kind of a laboratory.
00:20:04.280 But I reject the idea that it was designed and deliberately released.
00:20:11.760 So I don't think it's designed, and I don't think it was deliberately released.
00:20:16.000 But it might have come out of some lab that had a lot of samples of one thing or another.
00:20:20.040 That's entirely possible.
00:20:23.100 Assuming you're right, what about stocks?
00:20:25.600 What about gold?
00:20:26.340 I will give you no recommendation about gold.
00:20:29.180 Gold is something I've never understood beyond the fact that it's a psychological phenomenon.
00:20:35.460 So I don't give advice on things which I don't consider an investment.
00:20:40.420 And gold can act as a hedge.
00:20:42.920 There's no doubt about it in some circumstances, but not necessarily reliably.
00:20:48.640 And I wouldn't call it an investment, so I won't give you advice on it.
00:20:52.520 But stocks.
00:20:55.140 I also don't give advice on stocks except generic.
00:20:59.420 So I'm not going to tell you buy this stock, buy this, buy that.
00:21:02.360 It does seem to be that there's some kind of realignment happening in the world.
00:21:07.720 I have a broad index.
00:21:09.620 I would expect a third of my stocks to really suck for a long time.
00:21:15.220 But did I mention that Amazon is hiring 1,000 people, right?
00:21:21.660 So there are other companies that will grow like crazy, and it will at least partially offset some of the ones that are going to shrink.
00:21:29.860 So this is just a general statement, not advice.
00:21:34.760 Diversified portfolios have never lost.
00:21:39.480 Never.
00:21:40.720 If you're going to bet on something, bet on something that's never lost.
00:21:45.340 What's the record?
00:21:46.940 How long is this unbroken record of a diversified portfolio never losing?
00:21:52.500 Now, when I say never, I mean over any 10-year period.
00:21:55.720 In any given year, you could have a year like this.
00:21:57.880 But if you just hold on, you would be in an asset class.
00:22:04.060 Since the beginning of the asset class, I'm not a historian enough to know when was the first stock issued, but never.
00:22:13.220 Never.
00:22:15.080 Nobody's ever lost money in the stock market if they were willing to hold it 10 years or whatever.
00:22:19.940 Now, I think this is going to be far less than a 10-year problem.
00:22:22.560 Because your 10-year slumps in the economy have more of a reason.
00:22:28.940 You know, there's something about the world that's not quite working.
00:22:32.620 Whereas that's not the case.
00:22:34.760 The moment this virus is under control, all of our assets, all of our people, boom, we just slot them back in and start cranking it.
00:22:43.060 So, I've said this before, but whenever the recovery starts, and that's the part, you know, I'm not going to make a prediction about that.
00:22:52.500 But whatever happens, the recovery is going to be freaking awesome.
00:22:57.200 It will be a recovery like nobody's ever seen.
00:22:59.660 So, there will be records set on the upside, at least percentage-wise.
00:23:04.460 Not, you know, I don't know how long it will take to get back to where we were, but there will be records set.
00:23:10.940 It will happen pretty quickly.
00:23:12.720 It will probably happen about the time you start seeing good news about the virus rate going down.
00:23:19.280 That's probably premature.
00:23:20.680 And I say that only because we expect the flu has a good chance of having, you know, a double hump.
00:23:29.280 It gets bad, might get better in the summer, might not.
00:23:33.160 But, and then might get worse in the winter, might not.
00:23:36.580 A lot of unknowns.
00:23:41.380 Will this event inspire better cinema scripts?
00:23:45.500 Well, let me put it this way.
00:23:47.140 So, I've been telling you that we're on the cusp of the golden age.
00:23:52.460 And then this happens.
00:23:54.060 And so, you say to yourself, well, Scott, I guess you got this one wrong.
00:23:58.140 You're, you're way wrong.
00:24:00.220 This doesn't seem so golden to me.
00:24:03.000 But, it feels like a movie, and we just hit the third act.
00:24:08.480 If you watch any drama movie, actually any movie, the third act is that thing that's sort of, you know,
00:24:14.240 closer to the end than the beginning, in which the hero of the story is in an impossible situation,
00:24:20.820 and the audience can't even imagine how it could be solved.
00:24:23.560 It's like unimaginable there is any solution.
00:24:26.740 That's the third act.
00:24:28.600 That's where we are.
00:24:29.540 And, just because you can't imagine it, doesn't mean it won't get solved,
00:24:36.920 because we're not the ones who know how this stuff works.
00:24:39.800 Luckily, the experts do imagine it, and they have a better idea of, you know, where it's going.
00:24:45.020 But, it does feel, weirdly, like a movie script, and we're right in the middle of the third act.
00:24:52.240 And how does the third act go?
00:24:54.540 Always the same way.
00:24:56.200 Always the same way.
00:24:57.800 The hero wins.
00:24:59.520 That's how it works.
00:25:00.720 So, if you think this is a simulation that we're in,
00:25:03.280 and that it's following movie script form,
00:25:07.260 which it seems to do, by coincidence or design,
00:25:11.060 I don't know, probably coincidence.
00:25:13.640 But, you'll see it often.
00:25:19.340 Yeah, somebody says, hopefully not the fourth act.
00:25:21.780 Inflection point.
00:25:26.000 Chose fake or real, weakness or strength.
00:25:30.200 Yeah, I didn't understand that.
00:25:31.580 Yeah, the video conferencing companies are going crazy.
00:25:42.640 Somebody says, will you admit you were wrong when we don't see many deaths like China and Italy?
00:25:47.860 Why would I?
00:25:50.280 Is there something you don't understand about my opinion, that that question made sense?
00:25:56.180 Because I'm not one who said, we're all doomed.
00:26:00.000 And the danger is if you don't act.
00:26:04.920 But we're acting.
00:26:06.980 And the panic of, my God, millions could die, is what causes people to act.
00:26:14.060 There's no conflict between anything I've said and either a good result or a bad result.
00:26:20.380 Because I don't have a prediction on the outcome, except that it will be better than you're probably thinking it will be, and faster.
00:26:33.680 Somebody in the comments says, have you heard of this coronavirus thing?
00:26:41.840 Somebody says, I'm in Hawaii.
00:26:43.480 Should I worry less?
00:26:45.300 Well, you probably can worry less just because you're in Hawaii.
00:26:48.660 I'd go to the beach if I were you.
00:26:50.380 You know, the beauty of Hawaii is that it's not very crowded anywhere.
00:26:54.660 And at least it would be easy to avoid anything that's crowded.
00:26:58.540 So you're better than most people, certainly.
00:27:03.820 Somebody says, I am sensing more recovery talk in the last day.
00:27:08.660 You know, if I had to guess, I think things will get better in terms of store shelves.
00:27:14.420 And the store shelf thing is such a big psychological, you know, mind effort that if you go into a store and you can't buy something, that really plays with your head.
00:27:29.920 And I think we're well on the way to that being not even a problem.
00:27:33.260 In a few days, that won't be a thing we talk about anymore, I'm pretty sure.
00:27:36.800 Because the supply chains are really mature, really efficient.
00:27:40.320 And it's really just a matter of, you know, standing in front of the production machines a little bit longer and shipping a little faster.
00:27:47.820 So, I'm seeing a lot of people saying what somebody is saying in the comments.
00:27:54.580 I just was having this conversation.
00:27:57.480 A lot of people think they have it.
00:28:00.280 It's pretty common.
00:28:02.080 But a lot of people are wrong.
00:28:08.260 So, we don't know.
00:28:10.940 But I guess we'll learn it.
00:28:17.540 Yeah, freelancers laid off by best clients.
00:28:21.400 You know, everybody who has the ability to keep people employed, they have a responsibility to do it at this point.
00:28:28.540 Certainly, that's what I'm doing.
00:28:33.840 So, somebody says, Trump took the bait on will there be a recession question.
00:28:37.900 Should he have avoided it?
00:28:40.060 I didn't see how he handled it.
00:28:42.100 But I think it would be crazy to assume there won't be one.
00:28:47.220 Because isn't it already happening?
00:28:49.040 It's sort of like it's raining outside and somebody asks you, hey, is it going to rain today?
00:28:53.420 And you're looking out the window and you're saying, yeah, I'm looking out the window.
00:28:59.680 So, I'm not sure what the technical definition of a recession is.
00:29:03.140 But, you know, we're going to have several months of suboptimal economic stuff.
00:29:11.300 No way to avoid it.
00:29:14.560 Somebody says, teens can make a ton of money delivering.
00:29:17.500 Yeah.
00:29:18.220 You know, and that's one of the best ideas.
00:29:21.140 I did an order from DoorDash last night.
00:29:25.460 They have a, I think I mentioned this, they have an option for contact, for no contact delivery.
00:29:31.260 And you could just specify it in the thing.
00:29:33.940 And people will just leave it at your door and they text you and say, hey, it's at your door.
00:29:41.360 Trump should stop commenting on the stock market.
00:29:44.000 Well, I think the president has to talk about the financial markets.
00:29:52.240 So, I think he has to.
00:29:54.760 I'm not sure he's nailing it, at least on that topic.
00:30:02.140 You know, I don't know how many quarters of negative growth.
00:30:05.100 Because there's going to be a whole lot of pent-up demand.
00:30:08.900 But there will be, you know, there may be some businesses that take longer to come back online.
00:30:13.640 And restaurants might be among them.
00:30:15.500 So, yeah, I can see why it could last two quarters.
00:30:18.780 But certainly by the second quarter, it's going to be humming along.
00:30:22.320 All right.
00:30:23.560 I need to go.
00:30:24.640 And I will talk to you later.
00:30:26.780 Thank you.