Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 863 Scott Adams PART1： Let Me Tell You How We Beat the Virus and Get Back to Work Soon

00:00:00.000 What? How about this? How about that? There we go. Looking better. Everybody. It's a little dark in here. I think I have...

00:00:22.000 Maybe I should turn off my light a little bit. Hold on. Don't go anywhere. I'll let you watch.

00:00:30.000 Hey, much better.

00:00:51.540 What we're talking.

00:00:53.660 Yeah, this is a cheap operation, but the quality is in the sipping.

00:01:01.940 Sure, it's low production quality. Bad sound. Terrible lighting. Sketchy video quality.

00:01:10.940 But we have something that the other live streams do not have. You can watch MSNBC all night long. You won't get this. You can watch CNN for decades and not get this. It's called The Simultaneous Sip and All You Need.

00:01:26.980 Here's a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:01:37.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine at the end of the day, the thing that makes everything, including the frickin' pandemic, better.

00:01:45.320 Go.

00:01:46.680 Go.

00:01:50.320 Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah.

00:01:54.940 So, one of the scariest things in the world is something called the unknown.

00:02:02.620 The unknown can be really scary, especially if your enemy is invisible. You literally can't even see it. So, if you don't know where it's going and you can't see it, well, that's the scariest possibility in the world.

00:02:16.600 So, I'm going to fix that. I'm going to call on my decades of business and life experience to tell you where this is all going.

00:02:28.900 Are you ready? So, I'm going to describe what the next several weeks look like, and you get to see how close I am.

00:02:38.920 And it looks like this. So, we've got this big fight, if you will, between the people who say it's way too extreme to close the economy, you know, make this as short as possible, send us back to work, people are going to die, but it's better than crashing the economy.

00:02:56.600 I would say that's an adult decision or an adult opinion. Whether you agree with it, whether you disagree with it, I do respect it, because it demonstrates an understanding of the costs and an understanding of the benefits.

00:03:12.960 They're hard to measure, so it could be wrong or it could be right, because we don't know how big either of those sides are, but it's an adult decision, because it understands both the costs and the potential benefits.

00:03:25.660 So, I always appreciate anybody who can see the whole field, but that doesn't mean that tells us what to do.

00:03:31.920 And then there are the others who say, close it down until this virus is really under control, and we don't know how long that could take.

00:03:41.200 And you're hearing scary kind of numbers, like, you know, weeks, months, and we say to ourselves quite reasonably, ah, how could we survive that long with a crashed economy?

00:03:53.720 So, let me tell you what's actually going to happen, and it won't be one of those two things.

00:04:01.400 Greg Goffield always says, and I'm always nodding my head at home when he says it, about trapped in the prison of two ideas.

00:04:10.100 And we've sort of accidentally done that.

00:04:12.980 Aren't you thinking to yourself that there are two conditions?

00:04:16.260 Probably, right?

00:04:18.380 You've been sort of pushed into two camps and forgetting all the middle ground.

00:04:24.100 So, the two camps are open the economy or close the economy.

00:04:27.960 And you're thinking, well, those are our two options.

00:04:30.860 They are not, nor are either of them what's going to happen.

00:04:36.100 So, let me tell you what's going to happen.

00:04:38.040 This is based entirely on just experience.

00:04:43.200 I hate to say common sense, because I don't like the term.

00:04:47.060 Because good judgment is not very common.

00:04:51.500 But I'm going to describe it, and then the challenge is to you to tell me why I'm wrong.

00:04:57.940 Because I think you're going to watch it materialize right in front of you this way.

00:05:02.540 All right, so here are the variables, and then I'll tell you why you can fairly easily predict where this is going, and fairly quickly.

00:05:10.380 Number one, I'm going to get out in front of the medical professionals.

00:05:17.400 If you want to know what's true, listen to the medical professionals.

00:05:22.560 I'm not one of them.

00:05:24.240 So, if I give you more optimism about a medical situation, listen to the professionals for actual, accurate information.

00:05:33.900 But, also be aware that the medical professionals are managing not just your health, but availability of supply.

00:05:45.460 And they're managing your mental state, your anxiousness.

00:05:48.920 They're managing crowd psychology.

00:05:51.080 They're managing a lot of variables.

00:05:53.460 So, if they give you a straight fact, in normal times, I'd say to myself, well, it comes from the experts.

00:06:00.520 I'm going to take that straight fact as just being a straight fact.

00:06:04.780 But, I don't think you can do that today.

00:06:08.380 Now, I want to be very careful in what I'm saying.

00:06:11.100 I believe our medical professionals, the people in charge, do have the right intentions.

00:06:15.820 They have the most information.

00:06:17.140 They're the most qualified.

00:06:18.560 Everything they're doing is for the greater good.

00:06:22.560 But, we on this Periscope can, if we choose, to have a deeper insight into what's happening.

00:06:29.480 Because, I think we're smart enough, and, frankly, there aren't enough of us to make a difference anyway.

00:06:36.300 But, I think we're smart enough to be able to see what's really going on.

00:06:40.840 So, let me tell you what I think is really going on.

00:06:44.600 There are now, my understanding, subject to fact-checking, is that there are now three studies

00:06:50.860 showing that chloroquine, in particular, and the stronger version, hydroxychloroquine, or whatever it is,

00:07:00.740 in combination with, what, erythromycin, whatever, and erythromycin, you know, names of drugs that I can't pronounce.

00:07:08.840 By the way, are you impressed that President Trump can pronounce those drugs perfectly?

00:07:15.620 I was watching for that, when he talks, and he kind of perfectly pronounces them.

00:07:22.760 And then you watch the news reporters try to pronounce them, and it gets funny, because some can, some can't.

00:07:28.520 But, I don't know, I want to see Joe Biden try to pronounce the names of these drugs.

00:07:35.040 It's a serious, completely seriously.

00:07:38.200 Because it is one of those tells for mental acuity, and I'm wondering if I've lost it myself,

00:07:44.060 because I have trouble with those words.

00:07:45.620 But the President doesn't seem to.

00:07:48.480 I don't know.

00:07:49.400 I mean, it's the smallest little data point in the world.

00:07:53.380 And it made me wonder how much he practiced.

00:07:56.080 Didn't you?

00:07:57.240 When you saw him effortlessly saying those big medical words, did you say to yourself,

00:08:02.260 how long did he practice?

00:08:04.280 Or is he just sort of good at it?

00:08:05.640 I don't know the answer to that.

00:08:06.600 He might just be good at it.

00:08:09.680 But I would imagine he practiced a little bit.

00:08:12.760 I certainly did, and it didn't help me a bit.

00:08:14.520 So here's where things are going.

00:08:18.000 And so my first statement of fact is that I'm more optimistic than, let's say, Fauci and the CDC

00:08:26.180 on the usefulness of these drugs, such as chloroquine.

00:08:31.800 And I'll just use that as my placeholder for those other drugs that are also useful, and I guess they're taken in combination mostly.

00:08:42.240 I think that the reason that the doctors are downplaying it is to keep you home, because that's good, right?

00:08:48.900 At the moment, keeping you home is a big deal, and because they don't have a supply yet.

00:08:54.800 Now I'm sure that they, somebody says, stop rambling, old man.

00:09:00.060 Well, we can save you.

00:09:02.660 You're gone.

00:09:03.360 I think that the professionals are trying to strike a balance between panicking and people, you know, murdering people to get a supply of the drug, and being optimistic.

00:09:17.260 Here is my belief.

00:09:18.620 All right?

00:09:20.040 It's my belief.

00:09:21.000 This is not what the medical professionals are saying.

00:09:24.200 My belief is that they're striking a balance and that they know this stuff is better than, better than they're letting on.

00:09:31.860 Because all of the evidence so far is it's, it's a pretty good kill shot if you get it early enough and you're not at death's door.

00:09:39.000 And even if you're at death's door, some of these are looking pretty strong.

00:09:42.840 All right, so here's what's going to happen.

00:09:46.500 We are going to learn that we can take the death rate for a normal, healthy, let's say, people under 60, people with no underlying conditions.

00:09:56.400 I believe that within a week, we will be able to say with a fair degree of confidence that if you can get them the chloroquine and drugs when symptoms present,

00:10:07.420 and you're under 60 and there's nothing else special going on with you health-wise, I believe we're going to drive that very close to zero.

00:10:16.480 And we'll probably know that in a week, you know, based on, you know, other places in the world doing similar things, et cetera.

00:10:24.240 So in a week, let's say we know that if you're healthy and under 60, you could get sick, you'll probably get sick, half of people will get sick, maybe more.

00:10:33.220 But your odds of dying approach zero.

00:10:39.100 Then you can start letting people go back to work, but not everybody.

00:10:43.340 So here's my prediction.

00:10:45.140 We will be turning the economy back on, but not like a light switch.

00:10:50.480 It's going to be like a dimmer.

00:10:52.280 The first people who get to go back to work are the young, who live somewhere where the health care system is not overloaded.

00:11:00.760 That's important, too.

00:11:01.980 So young, the health care system is not overloaded and not predicted to be overloaded right away.

00:11:07.760 And they have a sufficient amount of the chloroquine and related drugs.

00:11:13.700 And here's the next thing I think is going to happen.

00:11:16.220 I ask this question, and I'll look for the answers on Twitter, but I ask the medical experts this question.

00:11:24.400 How practical is it to administer the chloroquine and the other meds for people who have a non-critical infection?

00:11:33.240 Or even if they're just presenting symptoms, but you don't know if it's regular flu or old flu or regular cold.

00:11:40.660 But just let's say you didn't do any testing.

00:11:43.500 This is just hypothetical.

00:11:44.440 Let's say you've got lots of meds, because I think you can make them quicker than you can make test kits.

00:11:53.420 And, you know, it's easier to give a med than to give a test.

00:11:56.140 So I think you're going to see pop-up tents in the vicinity of hospitals or maybe other places.

00:12:03.020 You probably want to be close to a hospital, you know, sort of within walking distance of a hospital with your pop-up tent.

00:12:09.300 But because somebody's going to walk in there with a worse case, and they should have gone to the emergency room, so you need to get them there quickly.

00:12:16.420 So I think what you're going to see is, especially in California and in other places as the weather warms, it's going to be tent-worthy weather.

00:12:28.740 And we're going to see pop-up tents with people who are just dispensing the meds to people who are not so sick that they really need to be in the intensive care.

00:12:38.420 So the first thing, I think, is that our ability to deliver it to people who are not critically ill will be very high.

00:12:47.700 So there's your back-to-work program.

00:12:51.060 I think in a week, maybe two, we're going to have really solid risk-reward information about these meds.

00:12:59.860 At that point, the government is going to start turning the knob, but it's not going to be a switch.

00:13:05.020 It's going to be, okay, in these places, these kinds of people, in these jobs, go back to work.

00:13:13.980 Take the restaurants, for example, the restaurant business.

00:13:17.520 You could easily imagine that restaurants would be approved for work under the following conditions.

00:13:24.600 Nobody under 60 in the restaurant.

00:13:26.500 Now, if you take the people over 60 out of the restaurant consumer business, you lose a lot of money because people over 60 are a big, big, big part of the restaurant business everywhere.

00:13:39.360 But could you get them up to getting close to meeting the rent just by saying if your servers are 20-somethings and you limit your customers to under 60 and you spread out the tables, let's give it a try.

00:13:57.400 Maybe not in New York City, but maybe in Toledo.

00:14:00.740 So, in other words, if you're thinking it's a light switch, economy on, economy off, you're dead wrong.

00:14:06.660 It's not going to be that.

00:14:07.760 It's going to be a phased test, test, test.

00:14:10.780 It's going to happen fairly rapidly, and we might test some things and pull back.

00:14:15.480 You know, say, oh, we tried it in Toledo, but Toledo got out of control.

00:14:18.440 Pull back.

00:14:21.280 And that's how we're going to beat this thing.

00:14:23.700 Now, let's talk about Rachel Maddow and all the bad reporting.

00:14:27.240 This is what Rachel Maddow said yesterday.

00:14:31.360 This is a quote.

00:14:32.420 But the president loves saying things like, you know, quote, there's a drug we've got and it's very effective.

00:14:38.340 It's approved already.

00:14:40.340 Everybody's going to get it, unquote.

00:14:42.660 He loves saying things like that because that would be a lovely thing to be able to tell people.

00:14:47.160 Unless, of course, that's not true.

00:14:52.620 In which case, telling people a fairy tale like that is cruel.

00:14:57.980 And harmful.

00:14:59.540 And needlessly diverting and wildly irresponsible from anyone in a leadership role, Maddow said.

00:15:07.100 Now, so Maddow is saying that it's a lie that we have a drug that's very effective and that it's approved already.

00:15:17.580 So, what would the press say about that?

00:15:22.180 Would the press say, yes, Rachel Maddow, you got them now.

00:15:26.940 Good point, Rachel.

00:15:29.100 It's that we don't have any effective approved drugs.

00:15:32.640 All right.

00:15:35.940 Well, Rachel Maddow, please explain the following observation.

00:15:40.500 So, since our press has largely failed us, and I think you could say that.

00:15:45.400 You know, I'm seeing some good reports.

00:15:49.480 Joel Pollack is doing, you know, great stuff. 0.98

00:15:52.000 You know, actual sort of sourcing stuff from real people in the real world instead of just talking to politicians and seeing what their dumb quotes are.

00:16:00.060 So, most of the news has just resorted to listening to people and then telling you what they said.

00:16:06.380 And it's only the people who volunteer to talk, politicians.

00:16:09.040 But any real investigative stuff is woefully lacking.

00:16:16.120 And I did something for you.

00:16:19.100 Okay?

00:16:19.980 I'm going to tell you something that the news won't tell you.

00:16:24.320 Because I know it.

00:16:26.040 I have a direct, you know, a direct knowledge of this fact that I'm going to tell you.

00:16:31.640 So, as of yesterday, actually just hours ago, last night, a patient who had all the symptoms, and I think by now has been confirmed, to have coronavirus.

00:16:45.680 And it's somebody who knows exactly how they got it.

00:16:49.540 In other words, it's now somebody who just suddenly had symptoms and said, well, I think I have it.

00:16:54.480 It was somebody who had close contact with somebody who had it.

00:16:57.620 They had all the symptoms, you know, just classic, the tight chest, you know, the dry cough, the whole thing.

00:17:05.380 Went to the emergency room.

00:17:08.140 And I got to follow the whole path.

00:17:11.060 So, I was sort of in close contact because it's a friend.

00:17:14.680 And there was like an immense wait at the emergency room.

00:17:18.860 I think it was an hours-long wait.

00:17:21.600 But when he got in, he was almost immediately put on chloroquine.

00:17:28.520 Now, I know that personally, because I heard it from the person.

00:17:33.340 Like, actually just hours ago, a real patient went into a real hospital and got chloroquine.

00:17:42.620 Rachel Maddow says this is not true.

00:17:46.280 She says that the president loves saying that there's a drug we've got, it's very effective, and it's approved already.

00:17:51.560 I can confirm that medical professionals are giving people this drug.

00:18:00.000 And do you think they're giving it to people because they don't think it works?

00:18:03.440 Do you think it's just, well, we don't know, you know, just guessing, just guessing?

00:18:08.360 No.

00:18:09.660 No.

00:18:10.800 No, the medical professionals are pretty damn sure this works.

00:18:14.560 And at the very least, it's not harmful.

00:18:18.020 I mean, it's a well-tolerated, well-understood drug, especially in short-term doses, which this would be.

00:18:23.660 Maybe it's the long-term stuff that even has any side effects at all.

00:18:28.820 So, Rachel Maddow, what does it mean when you say it's not approved?

00:18:32.860 Well, let me explain this.

00:18:35.260 Approval is not approval.

00:18:36.780 Again, trapped in the prison of two ideas, the gut-filled frame on things.

00:18:44.700 She's believing that a drug can be either approved or not approved.

00:18:49.820 And that's just wrong.

00:18:52.060 It's just wrong.

00:18:53.360 You can have a drug that's approved for something else and used off-label.

00:18:59.160 You can have it, there's a compassionate use clause.

00:19:02.580 I don't know how liberal that is.

00:19:04.040 Imagine you go into a hospital and you say, there are three known studies that show that this drug is super effective and has basically nothing to worry about in terms of side effects.

00:19:15.640 You go into the hospital and you say that.

00:19:17.800 Can I get that drug because I'm coughing, I've got the coronavirus, I've got the COVID-19, I could be dead in a few days without this drug.

00:19:29.920 Do you think the hospital is going to say, in this current situation, do you think the hospital is going to say, you know, I don't know, it doesn't look dire enough?

00:19:40.960 No.

00:19:42.000 No.

00:19:42.380 If they have the drug, they're going to give it to you right away.

00:19:45.180 There's no question about it.

00:19:47.060 The doctor is not going to say, I don't know, let's learn a bit more about this.

00:19:51.580 I don't know if this will quite fit into that off-label use.

00:19:56.620 I'm not sure if, you know, it's a compassionate use.

00:20:02.720 No, nothing like that's happening in the real world.

00:20:05.840 In the real world, this drug is approved.

00:20:09.760 Oh, is it technically approved in the sense that the FDA has said, you can use it for this, and here's the exact dosage regimen?

00:20:20.560 No.

00:20:21.420 No.

00:20:21.780 My understanding is that, unless it happened recently, my understanding is it's not approved in that very technical, specific way.

00:20:31.660 But do the doctors know what regimen to use?

00:20:34.900 Yes.

00:20:35.400 Because the other country has tried things, and they just told them, and then they tried it, and it worked.

00:20:40.260 So, yeah.

00:20:41.600 There may be some more ideal regimen, but we do know what it is.

00:20:45.480 I just saw it twice on Twitter.

00:20:47.520 If I know what the regimen is, well, doctors know.

00:20:51.120 I mean, I'm not sure I'm right, but, you know, the information seems to be widely available based on the experience of other countries.

00:20:57.980 So, Rachel Maddow, you are just lying to the country.

00:21:01.460 You are just lying.

00:21:03.280 And this is a despicable lie.

00:21:05.400 It's not like what you accuse the president of doing.

00:21:09.560 What you're accusing the president of doing is maybe something that's technically, in some, you know, word and legal way, you could define it as untrue.

00:21:19.260 But in the real world, if you've got the coronavirus, Rachel Maddow, and you drive into your local emergency room, Rachel Maddow, they're going to give you the drug that you just told the world isn't approved and isn't effective.

00:21:36.100 Now, again, I'm not guessing.

00:21:38.940 I just followed somebody with the frickin' coronavirus, you know, digitally anyway, all the way into the emergency room and then got a picture of the actual IV in the arm and asked what's in there.

00:21:52.140 And at least some of the stuff that's in there was the chloroquine, but I think there was a cocktail in there.

00:21:56.680 There's no doubt that the thing is approved in the real world sense.

00:22:02.380 You go into your emergency room, you're going to get the frickin' drug.

00:22:05.200 That's it. 0.62

00:22:06.300 Don't even think that that's not going to happen.

00:22:08.100 That's happening.

00:22:09.220 That's the fact right now.

00:22:10.640 Rachel Maddow, this is one of the most destructive, it almost seems intentional, because, you know, I've said this before, whatever you think of Rachel Maddow's, you know, her performance, her act, her politics, anything else, the one thing you can't question is she's super smart, right?

00:22:31.440 Nobody says she's dumb. 1.00

00:22:33.400 I mean, even to do this job, if you watch her for five minutes, you could hate everything she says and still come away thinking, well, you're really smart.

00:22:43.340 That's the impression I always get, is like she's really good at her job.

00:22:48.060 She's really smart.

00:22:50.160 Does she not know this distinction?

00:22:52.900 Because I know it, and I would have to guess that if Rachel Maddow took, you know, some kind of standardized test, 0.58

00:23:00.720 like if I competed with her for the SATs, I think she'd beat me.

00:23:05.040 If we took a test of just knowledge, just how much do you know about, you know, the world, I think she'd beat me.

00:23:14.060 And I know this.

00:23:16.200 Are you telling me she doesn't know that anybody can get this drug because doctors are going to be kind of flexible in the emergency situation?

00:23:23.580 Does she really not know that?

00:23:26.160 I don't know.

00:23:26.880 I don't want to be the guy who reads the mind and says, oh, no, you're lying intentionally because, you know,

00:23:31.520 we could easily be in this cognitive dissonance situation where she wants it to be true that he lied.

00:23:37.260 Other people said he lied.

00:23:38.540 It just feels right.

00:23:39.480 So she went with it.

00:23:42.200 But I don't know. 1.00

00:23:43.140 I don't know how you could be that smart and that dumb at the same time. 0.99

00:23:46.740 But I guess that's the question. 0.99

00:23:49.580 I saw yet another report from somebody who turned one ventilator into many with a combination of creative hosing and attachments.

00:23:59.880 So I guess the ventilator engine, if you will, is powerful enough to operate multiple hoses if you rig up the attachments.

00:24:07.880 And that's happening now.

00:24:08.960 So we've seen two different mechanisms for doing that.

00:24:12.200 They're probably both good.

00:24:14.040 And I thought I saw that somebody turned one into nine or something or two into nine.

00:24:19.520 Whatever it is, it's a multiple.

00:24:20.880 So that's good news.

00:24:25.380 Let's talk about the economic harm versus the medical harm.

00:24:31.020 There is a raging debate, and it fascinates me.

00:24:34.440 Most of the time, when there's a debate and there are people on either side, I find myself either strongly siding with one side,

00:24:45.840 and then I'll look at, okay, who are the people on my side?

00:24:48.720 And I'll look at the ones on my side, and I'll go, oh, okay, smart person, smart person, smart person.

00:24:54.520 I'm on the right side.

00:24:56.620 All right, who's on the other side? 1.00

00:24:57.900 Okay, dumb person, dumb person, been wrong about everything. 0.99

00:25:00.600 Okay, I feel safe. 0.99

00:25:01.560 So whenever I'm in the company of being in the same opinion of people I consider the smartest, wisest, most informed people,

00:25:10.360 I feel comfortable.

00:25:12.860 I am not comfortable at the moment.

00:25:16.820 Because there are smart people, people I respect, and who, you know, if I hear they disagree with me,

00:25:22.640 I don't reflexively say, well, why are they wrong?

00:25:26.100 I reflexively say, oh, God, I might be wrong this time.

00:25:29.280 And there are people saying, smart people, that we've gone too far closing the economy and we should open it back up.

00:25:38.840 And we should do it pretty soon and just, you know, take what's coming.

00:25:42.640 You know, it's going to be, there's going to be death, there's going to be problems, but it's better to have an operating economy.

00:25:48.660 So I'd like to talk to that question, open the economy or not.

00:25:52.320 Now, you heard my opinion that we will be opening the economy.

00:25:56.320 I'm guessing on the outside, two weeks from now, you should see a phased reopening.

00:26:02.480 And phased would be the key word.

00:26:04.100 Because as soon as you see motion in the right direction, it's going to change entirely how you feel about it.

00:26:10.540 I think we'll be hiding the people who are older and have underlying conditions.

00:26:14.500 We'll get much better at hiding them.

00:26:17.540 Oh, and by the way, there is some early indication, far short of being confirmed, that it's actually pretty hard to get it from casual contact.

00:26:27.220 So there's not a lot of evidence that people are getting it from, just say, you know, going to the store and shopping with somebody who has it.

00:26:36.320 So, I'm not telling you that's safe, so let me be very careful.

00:26:41.380 The virus apparently lives on surfaces for a long time.

00:26:45.820 So in the laboratory and scientifically and logically, you can get it, just being in a place where somebody else has it.

00:26:54.300 But there does seem to be two factors at play here.

00:26:57.600 One is that we can't confirm a lot of that has happened.

00:27:01.480 So every time we know where it came from, it seems to be close contact, you know, you're part of a ventilation system, you know, it's your spouse.

00:27:13.600 You can usually determine there's some kind of pretty close, you know, intensive contact.

00:27:19.180 But we don't actually have much, if any, evidence that somebody went to the hardware store and got it when they bought a hammer.

00:27:27.920 I'm just going to use a crazy example, right?

00:27:29.980 So there's no evidence that somebody just was away from everybody who had it, went to the store, bought a hammer, somebody else had touched the hammer, and now they got the coronavirus.

00:27:39.480 Could happen, theoretically, but the evidence is that it's sort of not.

00:27:46.560 So, could you protect, under those conditions, do we know enough to protect the people who are vulnerable?

00:27:52.260 And I'd say yes.

00:27:53.000 It seems like it's entirely about getting them away from other people and only about getting them away from intensive interactions.

00:28:01.540 So if somebody needs to deliver some food, you know, relative needs to, you know, stand in the doorway and say hi, seems perfectly safe, you know, relative to the rest of the world, which is an unsafe place.

00:28:13.360 So, here's another thing that you should consider.

00:28:20.760 The total close down, or whatever you want to call it at the current situation, whatever this is,

00:28:27.340 we probably want to take this as close as we can to the edge of destruction before we change, right?

00:28:37.280 So, if we're doing this right, it should look worse and worse and worse until it looks so bad, we think we're going to lose the entire economy.

00:28:47.860 And right there, right at that point where all the smart people say, okay, if you go one more inch, if you let this go on one more day, I don't know if we can get back.

00:28:59.320 That's the day that we'll start getting back.

00:29:05.460 Because that's the day the cost-benefit analysis just becomes obvious.

00:29:09.860 At the moment, smart people are disagreeing where, where's just the right balance?

00:29:14.840 Is it too soon, too late?

00:29:17.360 Smart people, you know, are going to be sort of disagreeing.

00:29:20.100 But there will be a point when things become so dire that it looks like, okay, we can't do one more day.

00:29:28.040 We've got to take the risk.

00:29:29.380 Let's get back to work.

00:29:30.520 I believe that it makes sense to take it right up to that line.

00:29:34.840 It makes sense to get pretty close to the line.

00:29:37.540 So, you are going to get a lot more scared before you start feeling comfortable.

00:29:43.000 So, that's just what to expect.

00:29:44.620 But that means we're doing it right, okay?

00:29:47.580 Okay, the proper strategy should bring it as close to the edge, but not over the edge,

00:29:53.620 to the extent that we can determine what that edge is.

00:29:56.840 And I think we can, actually.

00:29:58.280 Because we have a situation where nothing's broken.

00:30:01.520 You know, it's more like, can people get food?

00:30:04.500 And, you know, we'll know what the edge looks like.

00:30:07.380 But I think we're going to go right up to the darkest, darkest point in civilization.

00:30:13.540 And then we're going to say, stop.

00:30:15.660 And then we're going to start moving the other way.

00:30:18.960 But, all of that is going to buy us time to get the distribution of these drugs,

00:30:25.360 which, in my opinion, are super effective and would be enough to get at least the under-60s back to work. 0.75

00:30:33.300 Once the under-60s are back to work, you're going to be at about maybe 60% efficiency in your economy fairly quickly. 0.90

00:30:42.660 Fairly quickly.

00:30:43.720 All of the over-60s spend a lot of money. 0.54

00:30:46.260 They go to restaurants and, you know, drive around and buy gas and stuff.

00:30:50.300 So you're not going to be fully back.

00:30:51.820 But it is worth noting that the people who are not going to work first are the same group or at least likely to have a job.

00:31:00.740 You know, the elderly.

00:31:03.420 All right.

00:31:07.680 There will be a time when the baby boomers are called upon. 0.99

00:31:13.640 So I'm in that category of baby boomer.

00:31:19.880 And my generation, I think it's 1946 to 64, if you were born in that, you're a boomer.

00:31:27.120 We are most, except for the few people lingering who are in the greatest generation. 0.91

00:31:33.980 They're in their 90s.

00:31:35.080 There aren't too many of them.

00:31:35.840 But mostly the people at risk are the boomers. 0.94

00:31:40.740 And the boomers will be called upon for sacrifice. 0.99

00:31:47.180 Because if you ask me what's best for me, well, I might want the economy closed down a little extra long compared to you.

00:31:56.020 Because that will keep me a little extra safe because I'm over 60.

00:32:00.240 I have an underlying condition, asthma.

00:32:02.820 And so what's best for me personally would be a longer closed down.

00:32:08.680 Just to really, really get a handle on this thing.

00:32:11.860 What's best for the rest of you, people who are younger and have less death risk,

00:32:17.660 what's best for you is to get back to work fairly quickly.

00:32:20.080 So you and I, you, anybody who's young and out of work right now,

00:32:27.040 your interests and mine are not aligned.

00:32:30.340 Your best interest and my best interest just don't match.

00:32:34.100 So something's got to give, right?

00:32:35.940 So either you have to not work, you being a 30-year-old who's out of work right now,

00:32:41.560 or I have to take a greater risk of dying.

00:32:45.680 And the people in my category have to take a greater risk of dying.

00:32:50.080 So how do we get back to the, how do we get the economy working

00:32:55.340 when some big group is going to have to take a big risk?

00:33:01.840 And here's what I'm here to tell you.

00:33:05.260 I can't speak on behalf of all boomers, of course, or on behalf of anybody. 0.76

00:33:11.540 But I can tell you I'll take the risk.

00:33:13.840 When my government tells me, okay, young people, it's safe enough for you 1.00

00:33:19.280 because we have good drugs and we've ramped up our tents

00:33:22.980 where you can get quick treatment and everything.

00:33:25.120 It's safe enough for you.

00:33:27.080 But you boomers are going to be a lot less safe now

00:33:30.100 because, you know, everybody else is out in the world and spreading it around.

00:33:33.880 I'm here to tell you I'm signing up for that risk.

00:33:37.500 All right?

00:33:37.700 And I'm in a riskier category, probably not the riskiest or close to it,

00:33:42.180 but, you know, I'm raising my hand.

00:33:46.760 I don't know if you'll find too many people in my generation, the boomers,

00:33:52.260 who will not raise their hand for this.

00:33:54.860 There will be a time that your leader is going to call on you to take a risk,

00:34:00.460 an out-sized risk, one that isn't absolutely necessary, but pretty necessary.

00:34:10.720 So if you're wondering what the boomers will do or how we will respond to this, 0.98

00:34:16.040 I got good news for you.

00:34:17.660 We're a pretty strong bunch.

00:34:20.440 We boomers, you know, maybe the young folks can't quite understand

00:34:25.220 what it's like to be my age.

00:34:27.140 Let me tell you, young people, you know,

00:34:30.440 I have maybe a third of the people watching this are pretty young,

00:34:33.580 based on my stats.

00:34:35.740 Let me tell you something.

00:34:37.380 When you're my age, you've seen some stuff.

00:34:40.780 And my age has seen some stuff that maybe you can't even imagine.

00:34:46.840 You know, I've had every childhood disease.

00:34:49.480 I've had measles twice, mumps, chicken pox.

00:34:54.360 I beat those. I beat those.

00:34:57.160 And if I need to get something else that takes me, you know,

00:35:01.320 takes me out for a few weeks, I'll probably be fine because of the meds.

00:35:05.800 But if I have to take that risk, I'm signing up for it right now.

00:35:09.520 So your boomers are way tougher than you think.

00:35:13.760 Mentally?

00:35:15.120 Not physically.

00:35:15.980 But mentally, and in terms of their patriotism and their willingness to take a risk,

00:35:23.000 the boomers are going to step up. 0.68

00:35:25.460 And you should expect that.

00:35:27.380 So expect your boomers to take that risk so the rest of you can go back to work. 0.95

00:35:32.460 And I'd like to go first.

00:35:33.720 When the time, it's not yet right, I think we have to wait at least a week.

00:35:38.800 Two weeks at the outside is my best guess before we start phasing young people back 1.00

00:35:43.460 with the support of the medical system that can keep them healthy

00:35:47.960 at a rapid response if needed.

00:35:51.240 Almost there.

00:35:52.180 Two weeks at max.

00:35:53.060 93% of the people who say they have symptoms turn out to be negative.

00:36:03.120 I don't know how to process that.

00:36:04.820 But let me ask you this.

00:36:06.840 How many of you have convinced yourselves that sometime in the last three months

00:36:11.700 you actually had the coronavirus?

00:36:14.360 Because you had that weird illness, that weird cough, that cold, that fever, those aches

00:36:20.360 that didn't seem like anything else?

00:36:23.060 Because I'm in that category, right?

00:36:26.060 Because if I look at my last three months, I think to myself,

00:36:28.580 you know, there was like two weeks there where my whole body ached

00:36:33.220 and I seemed feverish and it just didn't feel like anything else I've ever experienced.

00:36:40.140 And do I believe that I actually have been infected with the coronavirus?

00:36:45.180 Well, 93% of the people with symptoms are negative.

00:36:48.960 So I'm going to play the odds.

00:36:51.200 Probably not.

00:36:53.060 You know, probably not.

00:36:55.420 Somebody says, age 66.

00:36:57.260 Me too.

00:36:57.980 Age 63.

00:36:59.440 Watch the comments.

00:37:01.480 Watch the comments from the boomers. 1.00

00:37:04.180 The boomers are ready to save your life.

00:37:07.820 I'll just put it right there.

00:37:10.020 The boomers are ready to enter the breach. 1.00

00:37:13.140 We just need the word.

00:37:15.900 Nobody, I don't think the boomers are going to go first. 0.99

00:37:18.460 You know, we're going to wait for our leaders to say, you know, now's the time for you to

00:37:22.120 take an outside risk.

00:37:23.720 You're going to do it for the young.

00:37:25.300 That's exactly what we'd do it for.

00:37:26.960 We'd be doing it for the young.

00:37:29.180 Or ourselves as well.

00:37:30.440 But the moment our leader asks for that, the boomers will give it to you. 1.00

00:37:37.120 All right.

00:37:37.400 I'm complaining on Twitter today, and I'll complain here about our press again.

00:37:46.160 Why don't we know more about the availability of the chloroquine and the other meds?

00:37:51.840 Here's what I'd like to know, and I'd like to know by the end of the day.

00:37:55.300 Because this is vitally important to the mental health of the country.

00:37:59.960 It's one thing to say, well, we might have a solution.

00:38:03.300 It might be coming.

00:38:04.840 But it's a completely different feeling if you say, we need this many pills.

00:38:10.380 We have this much already.

00:38:12.120 That'll help us with the most important cases.

00:38:14.820 By the end of two weeks, we'll have so many pills, you're drowning them.

00:38:18.920 And then that's when we do the pop-up tents, and that's when we just go nuts on this thing.

00:38:25.900 I need to kind of know what the pipeline looks like.

00:38:28.700 Not just for the chloroquine, but the related drugs that are in the cocktails they're using.

00:38:33.920 Why can't my press tell me that?

00:38:37.200 Why isn't that?

00:38:39.140 I mean, for me, it comes down to one question.

00:38:42.160 Two questions.

00:38:43.240 There are two questions.

00:38:44.020 One is, what is the survival rate of people who got these drugs on time in the United States?

00:38:52.020 I think it's going to be close to zero for people who don't have some other health condition.

00:38:56.740 I need to know that.

00:38:58.540 And then I need to know, what is the availability pipeline?

00:39:01.880 If you can tell me those two things, and I think the answers are going to be good,

00:39:06.720 or at least heading good, which is almost as good, I'm going to feel a lot better.

00:39:19.360 Now is Boomer Normandy. 0.53

00:39:21.880 Yeah, you know, I've thought of that analogy myself.

00:39:26.620 It's like every generation gets to storm the beaches at Normandy.

00:39:30.240 It just looks different.

00:39:32.960 You know, the greatest generation literally stormed the beaches of Normandy in a hail of bullets, 0.98

00:39:39.220 ripping them apart.

00:39:40.520 Did it anyway.

00:39:41.700 Saved the world.

00:39:44.600 We boomers are going to be asked to take a little risk.

00:39:47.600 It's not nearly the risk of Normandy, of course, or anywhere near it,

00:39:51.020 but it's going to be a risk, and we will take that beach.

00:39:53.940 All right, Joe Biden is, well, apparently Joe Biden's campaign,

00:40:02.880 they had a meeting, and they were thinking,

00:40:05.040 well, you know, what can we do during this time of crisis

00:40:09.000 when we can't campaign as effectively?

00:40:11.520 So they came up with a plan, and I assume that,

00:40:15.820 it wasn't in the room,

00:40:17.400 but I assume the conversation went something like this. 0.99

00:40:20.320 What is the dumbest, least productive, most destructive thing we could do? 0.96

00:40:26.000 I assume that's what they were trying to decide, 0.99

00:40:28.300 because they came up with a winner.

00:40:30.380 And the idea is that Joe Biden is going to have shadow briefings on coronavirus

00:40:35.260 to show how well he would have handled the crisis

00:40:38.620 compared to all that lying and failure from President Trump.

00:40:43.080 Now, it almost sounds like I'm joking, doesn't it?

00:40:47.080 Because isn't that the worst idea you've ever heard?

00:40:50.320 I mean, of all the ideas that anybody's had

00:40:53.440 since the beginning of the coronavirus,

00:40:56.640 you know, some are right, some are wrong,

00:40:58.420 but this might be the worst idea of all the ideas,

00:41:02.740 medically, politically, strategically, philosophically,

00:41:08.300 empathetically.

00:41:09.540 On every level, this might be the worst idea I've ever heard.

00:41:13.300 Because do you know what the country needs less than having a shadow president

00:41:18.960 lower our confidence in our actual leader?

00:41:25.020 That's the last thing we need.

00:41:27.220 The only thing that's worse than that is actually getting coronavirus. 0.97

00:41:31.500 I can't even think of a dumber thing to do.

00:41:34.560 So I've rebranded this as the shadow of his former self briefings. 0.95

00:41:39.380 So Joe Biden is a shadow of his former self.

00:41:43.400 So if he's giving a shadow briefing,

00:41:45.620 let's just fill in the blanks.

00:41:47.280 It's a shadow of his former self briefing.

00:41:50.200 And I think this shows in this example,

00:41:52.200 because let me ask you this.

00:41:54.000 Do you think young Joe Biden,

00:41:56.780 in better control of his faculties,

00:41:59.200 would have made this decision?

00:42:01.220 Do you think he would have?

00:42:02.080 This feels like a staff decision

00:42:04.900 from somebody who isn't good at decisions.

00:42:08.000 It might be the very worst idea

00:42:10.080 I've ever seen in the history of all politics.

00:42:13.220 Nothing about this is good.

00:42:15.500 And they're good.

00:42:16.000 I don't know.

00:42:16.580 Will they do it anyway?

00:42:17.540 I think maybe they'll get talked out of it.

00:42:20.180 My guess is that

00:42:21.460 by the time they get the technology up

00:42:24.580 so he could do it,

00:42:25.900 I guess they're waiting to turn his house

00:42:27.340 into a studio or something.

00:42:29.300 But by the time they can do it,

00:42:30.820 I think smart people will talk them out of it.

00:42:35.260 I think the adults in the room,

00:42:38.640 the David Axelrods,

00:42:40.120 if you're David Axelrod,

00:42:41.380 and you just read this,

00:42:43.580 and I think Axelrod is one of the smart people

00:42:47.480 in the room, right?

00:42:48.800 If you're talking politics and strategy and campaigns,

00:42:51.860 you want David Axelrod on your team.

00:42:55.660 One of the best.

00:42:57.540 Do you think when he heard this,

00:42:59.040 that Joe Biden was going to do shadow briefings

00:43:02.120 to confuse the country on coronavirus,

00:43:05.600 do you think Axelrod said,

00:43:07.560 whoa, good move?

00:43:09.200 Joe Biden, no.

00:43:11.240 No, I'm not a mind reader.

00:43:13.460 So maybe he did.

00:43:15.960 You know, who knows, right?

00:43:17.840 I can't determine it.

00:43:19.860 But do you think,

00:43:20.780 I mean, you've watched him, right?

00:43:22.640 You know, even if you disagree with

00:43:24.220 all of the politics of David Axelrod, 0.99

00:43:27.080 is there anybody here who thinks he's dumb? 0.97

00:43:30.020 No. 0.97

00:43:30.980 No.

00:43:31.360 There's not one person here

00:43:32.540 who thinks David Axelrod

00:43:34.660 doesn't know exactly what he's talking about.

00:43:37.100 He's at the top of his game,

00:43:39.220 as informed and smart as you could ever be

00:43:43.200 in this category.

00:43:45.920 Let's ask him what he thinks.

00:43:47.980 I assume he'll be,

00:43:49.180 he'll probably be on one of the news shows

00:43:51.280 in the next few days.

00:43:52.760 Wait for David Axelrod

00:43:54.320 to tell you what he thinks

00:43:55.580 about Joe Biden doing shadow briefings

00:43:58.460 in the middle of an emergency.

00:44:00.360 Honestly, it's the worst idea I've ever seen.

00:44:03.140 I'm not even joking.

00:44:04.760 It's the worst idea I've ever seen.

00:44:06.840 There are bad ideas,

00:44:07.820 but you can't find one worse than this.

00:44:09.280 And on top of that,

00:44:12.020 the things that Joe Biden thinks are lies

00:44:14.020 are because he doesn't understand it.

00:44:17.100 I just explained that Rachel Maddow,

00:44:19.600 who is about a thousand times smarter than Biden,

00:44:24.260 I mean, anybody would agree with that.

00:44:27.860 Rachel Maddow didn't know 0.98

00:44:29.400 that there's this distinction

00:44:31.500 between approved specifically

00:44:35.820 and okay to use approved that way.

00:44:38.320 She didn't know the distinction.

00:44:40.900 Do you think Joe Biden knows that distinction?

00:44:43.240 I don't know, maybe.

00:44:46.500 Who knows?

00:44:48.160 All right.

00:44:50.600 CNN is reporting that they're stunned.

00:44:53.580 Stunned, I tell you,

00:44:54.980 by Trump's totally ordinary behavior

00:44:58.280 at press conferences.

00:44:59.980 I don't know.

00:45:02.900 Jerry Maddow

00:45:04.340 and their

00:45:08.960 son

00:45:09.500 S

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 21, 2020

Episode 863 Scott Adams PART1： Let Me Tell You How We Beat the Virus and Get Back to Work Soon

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