Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 863 Scott Adams PART2： Let Me Tell You How We Beat the Virus and Get Back to Work Soon

00:00:00.000 who knows?

00:00:02.560 All right.

00:00:05.580 CNN is reporting that they're stunned.

00:00:08.580 Stunned, I tell you.

00:00:10.360 By Trump's totally ordinary behavior at press conferences.

00:00:15.040 And by totally ordinary, I mean he insulted a reporter of CNN

00:00:18.760 for just sort of trying to stir up crap.

00:00:22.620 Now, is that a news story?

00:00:25.540 We've got this coronavirus thing, the economy is in trouble,

00:00:29.400 well, I'm pretty sure we have some real news.

00:00:33.000 But is it news that Trump acted exactly like Trump

00:00:35.640 for the billionth time in a row?

00:00:38.440 Do you know what would be news?

00:00:40.260 Trump not acting like Trump.

00:00:43.020 That would be news.

00:00:44.320 There's some news.

00:00:46.200 What's not news is Trump acting like Trump.

00:00:49.780 All right.

00:00:51.540 So that's meaningless news.

00:00:53.940 It's sort of almost news porn

00:00:57.180 for people who just want to hear bad stuff about Trump.

00:00:59.580 That's fine.

00:01:00.420 But it doesn't have any meaning.

00:01:03.260 You're going to hear lots of stories

00:01:05.580 from people who work at hospitals.

00:01:08.440 And those individual stories will sound like this.

00:01:11.900 Ah, it's all chaos.

00:01:14.220 Nobody knows what's going on.

00:01:16.300 Nobody knows what they're doing.

00:01:17.840 We're just running around like chickens.

00:01:19.840 And there's so much.

00:01:21.420 And our capacity has crashed.

00:01:23.600 Let me put a big caution on those stories.

00:01:28.580 In every organization that's doing anything big,

00:01:33.880 you could throw a dart into a group of employees,

00:01:38.240 which would be very cruel and dangerous.

00:01:41.960 Don't throw a dart into a group of employees.

00:01:44.580 But if you did, that dart would hit somebody

00:01:47.480 who, when you said,

00:01:49.320 all right, pull the dart out, stop complaining.

00:01:51.700 Tell me what you think about management.

00:01:54.220 What would they say?

00:01:55.300 It's just random organization company

00:01:57.820 doing any big organizational thing.

00:02:01.620 What would random employees say about what's going on?

00:02:04.840 Let me tell you.

00:02:06.080 Management doesn't know what it's doing.

00:02:07.660 It's not communicating.

00:02:08.840 We're running around like chickens with our heads cut off.

00:02:11.360 It's chaos.

00:02:12.320 Nobody can agree.

00:02:13.100 We don't know where we're going.

00:02:14.940 Where's our strategy?

00:02:16.980 Our strategy!

00:02:19.420 Said every employee of every organization

00:02:24.460 who's going through any kind of a big reorganization

00:02:27.920 or change or transformation.

00:02:30.140 So you're going to hear all those stories.

00:02:34.800 Listen to the people who are a little closer

00:02:36.780 to the top of the chain to find out what's going on.

00:02:40.180 Because it would be very normal

00:02:41.600 that the people at the bottom don't know what's going on.

00:02:44.320 It would be more concerning

00:02:46.280 if the people in management

00:02:47.400 didn't have a pretty good handle on it.

00:02:49.580 Or at least they're trying something

00:02:51.160 and quickly adjusting,

00:02:52.580 which gets you to the same place.

00:02:54.080 A little bit slower than magic bullet,

00:02:56.540 but it's the right process.

00:02:58.380 So don't put too much credibility

00:03:01.560 in low-level staffs tweeting

00:03:05.520 and getting out messages about how bad things are.

00:03:08.360 Don't ignore them

00:03:09.420 because they are red flags.

00:03:12.560 So if you hear these reports,

00:03:14.800 I think the press should try to contact them

00:03:18.180 and maybe dig in

00:03:19.100 and compare it to what the management is saying

00:03:21.240 and get an independent view.

00:03:23.140 So you should definitely pay attention to them

00:03:26.260 as red flags.

00:03:28.140 But until the press is,

00:03:29.600 to the extent that the press is doing its job,

00:03:32.160 until you get a little more from management,

00:03:34.880 you don't have the picture.

00:03:36.000 That's just a caution

00:03:36.940 that you might hear some alarming stories

00:03:39.460 that might not tell you what's going on.

00:03:45.600 All right.

00:03:46.200 I put out this provocative thought

00:03:49.940 and I was quite surprised

00:03:51.760 the smart people did not totally reject it.

00:03:56.720 And it's a category I'd have to say

00:03:58.380 I don't understand well enough

00:03:59.760 to have a firm opinion,

00:04:00.920 so I put it in the form of a question

00:04:02.280 and it went like this.

00:04:03.760 If the government created and issued

00:04:05.320 a government-backed cryptocurrency,

00:04:08.180 in other words,

00:04:08.900 if the government made its own version of a Bitcoin

00:04:11.660 or some other crypto,

00:04:15.380 and just gave it to everybody

00:04:17.620 who had low income

00:04:19.540 and at least had the capability

00:04:21.400 of having a smartphone

00:04:22.420 and could figure out

00:04:23.720 how to get it and spend it.

00:04:25.280 Now, of course,

00:04:25.940 there are practical issues

00:04:27.200 about who can use a crypto wallet.

00:04:30.440 It's a little complicated, etc.

00:04:32.280 But I just put it out there

00:04:33.620 for the conceptual feedback.

00:04:37.340 And it was interesting.

00:04:39.100 There were people on both sides.

00:04:40.280 So I'm going to stop

00:04:41.800 well short of saying it's a good idea,

00:04:43.740 but I will say that

00:04:45.240 the objections I heard

00:04:47.420 didn't make sense.

00:04:50.620 So there were people who said,

00:04:52.060 no, you can't create

00:04:54.080 a government cryptocurrency

00:04:56.280 because that would cause inflation.

00:04:59.800 To which I said,

00:05:01.260 Bitcoin got created.

00:05:03.760 Did that cause inflation?

00:05:06.320 I don't think so.

00:05:07.860 Did it?

00:05:08.840 Maybe.

00:05:09.520 I mean, didn't notice.

00:05:10.860 Didn't seem to be much of an impact.

00:05:12.600 Now, it could be that

00:05:14.300 even Bitcoin,

00:05:15.980 as big as it is,

00:05:17.020 is not big enough

00:05:17.920 to cause inflation.

00:05:20.120 But a government crypto,

00:05:21.580 especially used massively like this,

00:05:23.560 maybe it would.

00:05:24.640 But there are a lot of

00:05:25.960 unknowns on this.

00:05:28.100 But I just put it out there

00:05:28.940 because the one thing

00:05:30.020 that cryptocurrency does

00:05:31.540 is it creates money

00:05:33.660 out of nothing.

00:05:35.980 So instead of running up our debt

00:05:38.280 or printing money

00:05:39.460 that could cause inflation,

00:05:40.800 the two ways that you sort of

00:05:42.200 produce money

00:05:42.840 in the normal way,

00:05:44.520 it's just a third way

00:05:45.640 to produce money

00:05:46.360 out of nothing.

00:05:47.660 But it's a little disconnected

00:05:49.220 from the rest of the economy,

00:05:50.680 so I don't know

00:05:51.340 if it would have

00:05:51.780 the same effect.

00:05:54.160 I just put it out there.

00:05:55.080 So that's a question,

00:05:55.840 not a suggestion.

00:05:57.140 But I think at some point

00:05:58.000 there will be a...

00:05:59.120 I mean, it's obvious

00:05:59.840 that at some point

00:06:00.660 the government

00:06:01.240 will have a crypto.

00:06:03.140 Right?

00:06:04.000 So if you're going

00:06:04.720 to have one anyway,

00:06:06.440 maybe this is the time

00:06:08.260 to do it.

00:06:08.660 I don't know.

00:06:13.160 You're going to see

00:06:13.840 the death rate

00:06:14.560 for coronavirus

00:06:15.920 falling quickly,

00:06:17.800 especially because of the meds

00:06:18.900 and also because

00:06:19.840 we'll be doing more testing

00:06:20.860 so we'll find more people

00:06:22.020 who didn't know they had it.

00:06:25.480 We're getting good news

00:06:27.040 about serum therapy,

00:06:30.620 convalescent serum therapy.

00:06:32.960 Now those are fancy words

00:06:34.360 for taking the blood

00:06:35.640 from people

00:06:36.220 who have already recovered,

00:06:37.320 taking out the good parts.

00:06:40.800 What's left is

00:06:41.740 in the serum, I guess.

00:06:43.400 So they reduce the blood

00:06:44.820 down to the useful parts

00:06:46.380 and inject it into somebody 0.51

00:06:48.260 who doesn't have it yet

00:06:51.120 or maybe somebody

00:06:53.020 who does have it.

00:06:53.700 I think it could go either way.

00:06:55.480 But it would give them antibodies

00:06:56.880 without them having

00:06:57.720 to develop it themselves.

00:06:59.640 And 91 out of 157 patients

00:07:02.440 treated this way

00:07:03.920 showed clinical improvement

00:07:05.400 within 48 hours.

00:07:07.320 Not bad.

00:07:08.300 Now that's only 91 out of 157.

00:07:10.940 I believe that the chloroquine

00:07:15.020 is getting,

00:07:16.580 and the other drugs

00:07:17.620 in combination, etc.,

00:07:18.880 are getting far higher

00:07:20.440 improvement rates than that.

00:07:21.840 But here's another one.

00:07:24.800 Somebody says,

00:07:25.900 read Trump tweet.

00:07:27.480 And before I do that,

00:07:30.860 I'm going to do that

00:07:31.420 right now.

00:07:39.400 Okay, let me just look

00:07:40.800 at Trump's tweets.

00:07:42.040 There must be something

00:07:42.820 going on that's interesting

00:07:43.940 or you wouldn't have

00:07:44.780 alerted me to that.

00:07:47.640 Trump, Trump.

00:07:49.780 One moment, please.

00:07:51.180 Please hold.

00:07:51.920 All right.

00:07:54.740 Oh, well, there we go.

00:07:56.040 41 minutes ago.

00:08:01.020 Hydroxychloroquine

00:08:01.540 and azithromycin

00:08:03.740 taken together.

00:08:04.780 Remember, this is coming

00:08:05.680 from the president,

00:08:06.600 so this is not a medical person.

00:08:08.620 So hydroxychloroquine

00:08:10.520 and azithromycin

00:08:11.580 taken together

00:08:12.340 have a real chance

00:08:13.860 to be one of the biggest

00:08:14.820 game changers

00:08:15.780 in the history of medicine.

00:08:17.360 The FDA has moved mountains.

00:08:21.600 Thank you.

00:08:23.020 Hopefully, they will both.

00:08:26.120 H works better with A, 0.78

00:08:28.260 international general.

00:08:29.400 In other words,

00:08:30.320 combining those two drugs

00:08:31.420 works better than taking one of them.

00:08:33.200 To put it to use immediately,

00:08:34.920 people are dying.

00:08:36.080 Move fast and God bless everyone.

00:08:39.340 Let me tell you

00:08:40.740 some behind-the-scenes

00:08:42.020 information.

00:08:44.920 Now, this is word of mouth.

00:08:47.360 It's hearsay to you.

00:08:51.580 I know the person

00:08:52.680 and I know the source,

00:08:53.720 et cetera.

00:08:54.800 So put it with a grain of salt.

00:08:56.220 But this is something

00:08:57.100 I've heard,

00:08:58.440 which is,

00:08:59.200 was it yesterday?

00:09:00.360 Maybe yesterday morning

00:09:01.340 or the day before?

00:09:03.060 I was asking about

00:09:04.320 the FDA

00:09:05.900 and approval.

00:09:09.160 And what I heard,

00:09:10.480 and again,

00:09:11.980 grain of salt, right?

00:09:13.280 Any anonymous information

00:09:15.160 you want to take

00:09:16.460 with a grain of salt.

00:09:17.920 But what I heard was

00:09:19.300 that Trump was telling

00:09:21.380 the FDA,

00:09:22.680 get it done.

00:09:24.980 And as in,

00:09:27.200 we're not going to wait for you,

00:09:28.720 you're just going to do it.

00:09:30.100 Just freaking do it.

00:09:31.960 Just make this happen.

00:09:33.640 So I think the president

00:09:34.680 was putting all kinds of pressure

00:09:37.080 on the FDA.

00:09:37.680 Now,

00:09:38.820 is that safe?

00:09:40.440 Has the FDA

00:09:41.360 maybe cut some corners

00:09:42.700 because the president's

00:09:44.800 putting pressure on them?

00:09:45.960 Imagine how much pressure

00:09:47.200 the president of the United States,

00:09:49.420 this one,

00:09:49.820 this one in particular,

00:09:51.200 could put on you

00:09:52.180 if you want something done

00:09:54.360 and it's a national emergency.

00:09:55.780 Well,

00:09:56.120 that's the kind of pressure

00:09:57.180 that nobody's ever seen.

00:09:58.480 I mean,

00:09:58.640 you've never been in that situation.

00:10:00.060 will you ever be

00:10:01.900 like the choke point

00:10:03.960 for a national emergency

00:10:05.400 and the most important leader

00:10:07.680 in the entire world,

00:10:08.880 in my opinion,

00:10:10.340 is putting pressure on you

00:10:11.840 to make a decision

00:10:12.620 that's not maybe

00:10:13.780 medically

00:10:14.500 what you wanted to do?

00:10:15.820 There's a little bit

00:10:19.820 of risk there.

00:10:21.160 I'm not going to lie.

00:10:22.500 There's a little bit

00:10:23.080 of risk there.

00:10:24.240 But,

00:10:25.200 it's a risk I would have taken

00:10:26.400 based on what I've seen.

00:10:28.160 You know,

00:10:28.300 I'm assuming the president's

00:10:29.440 seeing stuff

00:10:30.580 functionally similar

00:10:32.180 to what we're seeing

00:10:33.080 at this point,

00:10:34.140 meaning that these

00:10:34.940 are so low risk

00:10:36.560 because they're existing drugs

00:10:37.840 we have some experience

00:10:39.080 with them

00:10:39.440 and they're such a high gain

00:10:41.140 that the risk-reward

00:10:43.300 is just blatantly obvious.

00:10:45.820 And I think the president,

00:10:47.160 especially because you take them

00:10:48.220 for short term,

00:10:49.320 the side effects

00:10:49.980 are more long-term use

00:10:51.300 but we don't need it long-term.

00:10:52.800 It's sort of a

00:10:53.680 two weeks and done situation

00:10:55.500 or less.

00:10:56.720 And,

00:10:57.420 I think the president

00:10:59.540 is just completely right.

00:11:01.140 You know,

00:11:01.400 the bureaucracy

00:11:01.920 had to do

00:11:02.600 what the bureaucracy does

00:11:03.760 but I think he pushed them

00:11:05.360 to act faster

00:11:06.100 than they've ever acted before.

00:11:07.960 And I think the president's optimism

00:11:09.940 will be greatly criticized today.

00:11:14.720 But,

00:11:15.440 you know,

00:11:15.720 he said something interesting

00:11:17.020 at the press conference

00:11:18.520 that I hated

00:11:20.020 and loved it

00:11:21.220 at the same time.

00:11:22.500 I had a hate-love relationship

00:11:23.780 with this statement.

00:11:25.580 And the president said that,

00:11:27.100 you know,

00:11:27.640 you never know.

00:11:29.160 He was talking about chloroquine,

00:11:30.560 not the hydroxychloroquine,

00:11:32.280 which is even better.

00:11:33.460 He said,

00:11:33.820 you never know.

00:11:35.240 You know,

00:11:35.740 good indications

00:11:36.460 but personally,

00:11:37.980 you know,

00:11:38.340 he said he was optimistic.

00:11:39.460 fantastic.

00:11:41.700 And,

00:11:42.000 and,

00:11:42.260 I thought,

00:11:47.340 well,

00:11:48.640 you know,

00:11:49.360 you might be getting

00:11:50.280 a little bit ahead

00:11:50.960 of the medical people

00:11:52.480 but I don't think so.

00:11:53.700 So,

00:11:54.000 I think he's going to be

00:11:54.720 proven right.

00:11:55.260 And the part that I didn't like

00:11:56.320 but I liked a little bit

00:11:57.780 is he said that he's been

00:11:58.780 right a lot.

00:12:00.000 He looks at him

00:12:00.760 and he goes,

00:12:01.880 you know,

00:12:02.220 I think this is going

00:12:03.080 to be really good

00:12:04.700 and I've been right a lot.

00:12:07.320 Now,

00:12:07.740 when he said it,

00:12:08.240 I thought,

00:12:08.560 well,

00:12:08.720 you don't need to say that.

00:12:10.700 You know,

00:12:11.140 you don't need to say

00:12:12.200 you're right.

00:12:13.740 This isn't sort of the time

00:12:15.020 to keep score.

00:12:15.920 You know,

00:12:16.080 it's a national emergency.

00:12:17.480 But on the other hand,

00:12:18.440 I thought,

00:12:19.760 well,

00:12:19.980 it's kind of true.

00:12:21.980 It's kind of true.

00:12:23.580 All right.

00:12:24.000 When he closed the airport,

00:12:25.960 what did everybody say?

00:12:27.960 Too soon.

00:12:28.940 Don't do it.

00:12:30.200 And now they all say

00:12:31.000 he's right.

00:12:31.960 Right.

00:12:32.780 And,

00:12:33.260 you know,

00:12:33.600 you can go down the line.

00:12:34.980 He's,

00:12:35.780 you know,

00:12:36.040 there'll be plenty of stuff

00:12:37.280 for people to complain about

00:12:39.000 and they will.

00:12:40.060 But he's been right a lot.

00:12:42.140 And in the,

00:12:43.140 in the context of an emergency,

00:12:45.920 what the public wants to know

00:12:47.720 is that the leader's been right a lot.

00:12:50.720 So I kind of,

00:12:52.080 I liked it because it showed confidence

00:12:54.300 and the public needs to know

00:12:56.940 he's right a lot.

00:12:57.740 And I think he's actually right about that,

00:12:59.500 that he's right a lot.

00:13:00.980 You know,

00:13:01.100 I'd be the first one to criticize him

00:13:02.720 if I didn't think that was objectively true,

00:13:04.900 but I think it is.

00:13:09.700 So let's,

00:13:10.500 let's talk more about the economy.

00:13:12.060 So I think,

00:13:13.340 like I said,

00:13:14.080 I think that we're going to be sending

00:13:15.300 the young back to work

00:13:16.460 as soon as we have a really,

00:13:17.880 really good handle on,

00:13:18.980 on the meds.

00:13:19.640 But I wanted to go through

00:13:21.580 a long tweet thread

00:13:23.680 that I sent out

00:13:25.560 yesterday

00:13:27.480 that I tried to capture

00:13:28.960 for people who don't understand economics

00:13:31.860 and haven't sort of lived in that world.

00:13:33.640 I wanted to

00:13:34.200 give you a little framework

00:13:36.180 so you understand what you're seeing

00:13:38.120 and what to worry about

00:13:39.160 and what not to worry about.

00:13:40.320 So I'll just run through this.

00:13:41.340 The first thing you should do

00:13:44.120 is not compare this epidemic

00:13:45.760 to any other epidemic

00:13:46.900 because it really is its own thing.

00:13:48.560 It's not the Spanish flu.

00:13:50.220 It's not SARS.

00:13:51.120 It's not,

00:13:51.540 it's not the regular flu.

00:13:52.900 It's not the common cold.

00:13:53.780 It's just not anything.

00:13:54.900 So the moment that you

00:13:56.040 try to predict the future

00:13:58.280 by comparing it to something,

00:14:00.160 you're already off the rails

00:14:01.600 because that just doesn't work.

00:14:03.800 So don't compare it to anything.

00:14:05.060 Just know what we know about this

00:14:07.080 and use that.

00:14:08.960 All right.

00:14:09.480 Second thing you need to know

00:14:10.640 is that the economy

00:14:11.840 is a psychology engine.

00:14:15.060 So all of the physical assets,

00:14:17.140 all of the business models

00:14:18.520 are completely intact

00:14:19.720 and they'll be intact

00:14:20.760 if it's one month

00:14:22.140 or two months

00:14:22.680 or three months

00:14:23.280 or one week.

00:14:24.380 That stuff is sort of

00:14:25.680 going to be there waiting.

00:14:26.980 So that's good.

00:14:34.380 But if we keep our psychology right,

00:14:39.080 the economy won't crash

00:14:40.500 because the economy is all about

00:14:42.560 what do you expect tomorrow?

00:14:44.460 Well, I'll invest today

00:14:45.940 because I expect tomorrow

00:14:47.180 people will buy stuff.

00:14:48.680 So expectations and psychology

00:14:50.380 really are the engine.

00:14:53.000 And there are a number of us

00:14:55.160 who are working very hard

00:14:56.480 to keep that psychology intact.

00:14:59.300 You might even say,

00:15:00.920 if you were to describe

00:15:02.080 my job at the moment,

00:15:04.060 and I would say,

00:15:05.000 in the crisis,

00:15:06.300 everybody has a job.

00:15:07.440 It's not the one you're paid for.

00:15:09.100 But you all have a job.

00:15:10.460 You know what your job is, right?

00:15:11.560 Sometimes your job is

00:15:12.660 just to stay out of public.

00:15:14.720 Sometimes your job is

00:15:15.700 to help somebody else.

00:15:16.500 Sometimes your job is

00:15:17.620 you're a medical professional.

00:15:19.580 My job,

00:15:20.960 which I assign to myself

00:15:22.520 based on ability,

00:15:24.420 is to keep the psychology engine intact.

00:15:28.520 And you'll see plenty of smart people

00:15:30.540 who understand economics

00:15:31.920 who are doing the same.

00:15:33.780 If you see somebody

00:15:34.980 who understands economics

00:15:36.420 and is scaring you

00:15:38.540 about what's going to happen,

00:15:40.420 then you should say about them

00:15:42.080 they don't understand economics.

00:15:44.080 Somehow they went to college,

00:15:45.820 got a degree,

00:15:46.680 got on television

00:15:47.480 to talk about economics.

00:15:49.140 But if they're scaring you,

00:15:51.520 they don't understand economics

00:15:53.100 because economics

00:15:53.880 is fundamentally psychology

00:15:56.440 in the practical world.

00:15:59.380 So I'm going to do

00:16:01.360 what some of them

00:16:03.100 maybe are not doing right yet.

00:16:05.900 Bill Ackman,

00:16:07.100 he's an investor,

00:16:08.520 so you have to be careful

00:16:09.840 of anybody who's made bets on this.

00:16:12.240 So there are people

00:16:12.880 making bets on the downside,

00:16:14.620 bets on the upside,

00:16:15.740 and then there are just some people

00:16:16.920 who are just frightened to death.

00:16:19.040 So I would ignore individuals

00:16:21.500 no matter how talented.

00:16:23.680 I would sort of look for the consensus

00:16:26.620 because individuals

00:16:28.280 are just going to be scared

00:16:29.580 and or have a bet

00:16:30.880 in the other direction,

00:16:32.360 that sort of thing.

00:16:35.840 So I wouldn't worry about Bill Ackman

00:16:37.720 or any specific person

00:16:39.340 who seems a little frightened.

00:16:40.580 And there will be very smart

00:16:42.240 and knowledgeable people

00:16:43.220 who are just frightened.

00:16:44.500 Everybody has a different button, right?

00:16:47.440 The thing that frightens you

00:16:49.840 won't be the thing that frightens me

00:16:51.280 and vice versa.

00:16:52.840 So you just know

00:16:54.540 that there's a huge individual difference

00:16:56.280 in how frightened people are

00:16:57.440 that is independent

00:16:58.480 from what the world is.

00:16:59.580 So I and people

00:17:04.020 who understand economics

00:17:05.680 as a psychology engine

00:17:06.940 are going to hold this together.

00:17:09.640 We're going to.

00:17:11.040 Because we have the ability.

00:17:12.620 We have the time.

00:17:14.240 I'm not going anywhere.

00:17:15.780 We have the motivation.

00:17:17.760 And we have, you know,

00:17:19.000 if you have ability, time, motivation,

00:17:21.220 and the technology

00:17:23.000 to get it out,

00:17:24.300 you can guarantee

00:17:25.580 that the people

00:17:27.340 who understand this stuff

00:17:28.780 will hold it together.

00:17:31.140 Now, there'll still be plenty of people

00:17:32.620 who are flipping out.

00:17:34.320 But on the whole,

00:17:36.240 people like me

00:17:37.060 and people who

00:17:38.800 have the calmer voices

00:17:40.480 and understand how economics work,

00:17:43.160 we will hold this together.

00:17:45.440 You just have to listen to us.

00:17:47.660 And you can do that right now.

00:17:49.440 Now, keep in mind

00:17:51.200 that we don't know

00:17:52.200 if a trillion-dollar aid

00:17:53.760 or two trillion is the right amount.

00:17:56.060 Experts disagree.

00:17:57.240 And if experts disagree,

00:17:58.500 what do you and I

00:17:59.360 have to say about it, really?

00:18:01.220 Except this.

00:18:02.780 If you had a choice

00:18:03.840 between approving

00:18:05.000 two trillion or one trillion,

00:18:07.420 which is the right decision?

00:18:09.760 Mathematically, hard to tell.

00:18:11.920 Because, you know,

00:18:12.660 there's a cost for doing too much

00:18:15.220 and there's a cost for doing too little

00:18:16.860 and we can't predict either one.

00:18:18.260 And yet,

00:18:19.980 there is a right answer

00:18:21.220 and it looks like this.

00:18:22.700 You have to go with the big number.

00:18:24.520 If the big number is out there,

00:18:26.340 you've got to take it.

00:18:27.600 In the same way that

00:18:28.900 when President Trump said,

00:18:30.300 well, we might need 2.5 billion

00:18:32.060 and the Democrats said,

00:18:34.080 how about something like 9 billion?

00:18:36.200 Because we've been here before.

00:18:37.640 It's going to be more expensive

00:18:38.600 than you think.

00:18:39.900 Whoever says the biggest number

00:18:41.460 wins in an emergency.

00:18:43.080 So, for confidence

00:18:46.460 and for the engine of the economy,

00:18:49.300 which is psychology,

00:18:50.460 there is one right answer

00:18:51.980 and it's the big number.

00:18:54.700 But,

00:18:55.740 because there's a risk

00:18:57.100 with the big number,

00:18:58.120 there's a way to gain this.

00:18:59.880 You announce approval

00:19:01.040 of the big number

00:19:01.900 and then at the same time

00:19:03.540 you announce that

00:19:04.220 you're going to use half of it

00:19:05.540 and then re-evaluate.

00:19:07.080 re-evaluate.

00:19:08.980 You win.

00:19:10.960 Because we'll probably be smarter

00:19:13.000 in a few weeks

00:19:15.020 and we'll know

00:19:15.960 if that second half,

00:19:17.280 that second trillion

00:19:18.100 is critical or not.

00:19:21.100 But if you announce

00:19:22.180 the whole 2 trillion,

00:19:23.640 people say,

00:19:24.440 okay, thank God

00:19:25.440 they're not being stingy.

00:19:27.200 Thank goodness

00:19:28.000 they're going for the big number.

00:19:29.680 Thank goodness

00:19:30.240 they took it seriously.

00:19:32.000 And then you still just

00:19:32.660 approve for immediate release

00:19:35.380 the smaller number.

00:19:37.080 And the big one's just waiting.

00:19:38.440 It's already approved.

00:19:39.360 So that can get out

00:19:40.620 in a few days.

00:19:41.940 So the smart way

00:19:42.960 to play this

00:19:43.520 is to approve the big number.

00:19:45.060 The psychology engine

00:19:46.200 of economics

00:19:47.140 stays intact

00:19:47.940 as best it can.

00:19:49.520 And then you still

00:19:50.620 monitor it

00:19:51.420 as you go

00:19:52.380 so you can pull back

00:19:53.480 when you need to.

00:19:55.840 Next,

00:19:56.800 the human ingenuity

00:19:58.000 that's being concentrated

00:19:59.060 on this thing.

00:20:00.940 I feel like

00:20:01.920 we're not only

00:20:02.720 going to get past this,

00:20:04.180 I feel like we're going

00:20:04.920 to cure the common cold.

00:20:07.080 Now that might be

00:20:07.820 a little hyperbole.

00:20:09.640 But the amount

00:20:10.320 we're going to learn

00:20:11.200 about dealing with

00:20:12.640 all of the pandemic

00:20:14.340 situation

00:20:15.280 is tremendous.

00:20:16.960 And I think

00:20:17.380 the human ingenuity

00:20:18.460 we're seeing it already.

00:20:19.520 I mean,

00:20:19.840 in every possible way

00:20:21.060 from the medical community

00:20:22.700 to economics.

00:20:24.120 You are seeing ingenuity

00:20:25.760 like I've never witnessed.

00:20:28.220 Not even close.

00:20:29.580 I have to think

00:20:30.460 that in World War II

00:20:31.520 there was a similar

00:20:33.060 explosion of ingenuity

00:20:35.880 because you just had to.

00:20:37.000 You just had to figure out

00:20:37.920 how to live

00:20:38.360 when everything

00:20:38.760 was getting blown up.

00:20:40.680 But in my life,

00:20:41.960 since I didn't live

00:20:42.600 through World War II,

00:20:44.280 I've never seen

00:20:45.340 this degree

00:20:46.900 of human ingenuity.

00:20:48.620 It's breathtaking.

00:20:50.260 And we'll be talking

00:20:51.040 about that for decades.

00:20:53.140 And I like to say it

00:20:55.340 this way.

00:20:56.400 Ask Warren Buffett

00:20:57.300 how smart it is

00:20:58.100 to bet against

00:20:58.760 the U.S. economy.

00:20:59.740 Because people are

00:21:01.340 looking at the economy

00:21:02.180 and say,

00:21:02.500 some people think

00:21:04.580 it'll come back.

00:21:05.380 Some people think

00:21:05.980 it'll go lower.

00:21:07.680 Some people will just,

00:21:08.580 you know,

00:21:08.840 it'll all disappear

00:21:09.580 and we'll all be

00:21:10.360 an agrarian society.

00:21:12.560 But Warren Buffett

00:21:13.700 has a pretty good

00:21:15.160 track record.

00:21:16.700 And I haven't seen him

00:21:17.680 talk about this recently,

00:21:18.980 but do you think

00:21:20.140 Warren Buffett

00:21:20.800 is betting against

00:21:21.980 the U.S. economy?

00:21:24.860 Nope.

00:21:26.120 Nope.

00:21:26.620 I'll bet he's not.

00:21:27.320 because he never has

00:21:28.880 and I'll bet

00:21:29.860 he never will.

00:21:31.640 So if Warren Buffett,

00:21:33.620 and here I'm just

00:21:34.300 speculating

00:21:34.780 because he hasn't

00:21:35.300 said anything,

00:21:35.860 but he's never bet

00:21:36.500 against the U.S. economy,

00:21:38.580 and I think you

00:21:39.900 could take some comfort

00:21:40.840 from that,

00:21:41.340 even now.

00:21:42.520 There's no way

00:21:43.240 he's going to bet

00:21:43.740 against it.

00:21:46.920 Next,

00:21:47.460 you can count on

00:21:48.080 the people who have money,

00:21:49.440 the people who got

00:21:50.200 through the virus crisis

00:21:52.400 intact financially.

00:21:54.300 You can count on them

00:21:55.440 to go back hard

00:21:56.600 and spend.

00:21:58.020 I'm going to commit

00:21:59.160 right now

00:21:59.720 that the moment

00:22:00.720 I can leave the house,

00:22:01.780 I'm just going to be

00:22:02.320 raiding cash

00:22:03.120 on my local economy.

00:22:04.460 I'm going to eat out

00:22:05.300 as much as Christina

00:22:07.100 wants to go out to dinner.

00:22:09.180 I'm going to buy

00:22:10.060 stuff locally.

00:22:10.980 I'm just going to

00:22:11.800 spray money

00:22:12.580 into the local economy.

00:22:14.120 I'm pretty sure

00:22:15.100 that anybody

00:22:15.980 who has the ability

00:22:16.840 to do the same

00:22:17.780 is going to be

00:22:18.860 thinking in those terms,

00:22:19.980 if only because

00:22:20.840 they have a lot

00:22:21.260 of pent-up demand.

00:22:22.360 They've been home

00:22:22.760 too long.

00:22:24.280 So that's good.

00:22:24.980 The biggest

00:22:29.920 economic variable

00:22:31.080 after the virus

00:22:32.380 itself

00:22:32.880 is what's going

00:22:34.020 to happen

00:22:34.360 because of it.

00:22:36.020 What things

00:22:36.840 do you change

00:22:37.600 because we went

00:22:38.400 through this experience?

00:22:39.240 And the biggest thing

00:22:40.320 obviously is the

00:22:41.080 supply chain.

00:22:42.780 There's no doubt

00:22:43.660 anymore that we'll

00:22:44.840 be decoupling

00:22:45.580 from China.

00:22:46.980 How many of you

00:22:47.900 a year ago

00:22:48.720 when I was saying

00:22:49.960 decouple from China,

00:22:51.760 how many of you

00:22:52.440 thought to yourself,

00:22:53.400 good luck, Scott,

00:22:54.780 but that's not

00:22:56.200 going to happen

00:22:56.600 because that's

00:22:58.380 just crazy.

00:22:59.780 The China-U.S. 0.96

00:23:01.320 trade is just

00:23:01.840 so big and so important

00:23:02.920 we're not going

00:23:03.360 to decouple.

00:23:06.000 Slowly,

00:23:06.700 quickly,

00:23:07.040 we're just not

00:23:07.500 going to do it.

00:23:07.960 It's too important.

00:23:09.160 A year ago,

00:23:09.720 that just sounded

00:23:10.260 crazy, didn't it?

00:23:11.560 Decouple from China. 0.93

00:23:13.280 What do you think

00:23:13.960 now?

00:23:15.800 What do you think

00:23:16.600 now?

00:23:17.420 Well,

00:23:18.320 now you think

00:23:19.140 it's guaranteed.

00:23:20.840 So when I say

00:23:21.620 it's guaranteed,

00:23:22.460 I don't mean

00:23:23.020 we'll stop

00:23:23.740 doing business

00:23:24.560 with China.

00:23:25.360 I don't mean that.

00:23:26.100 I mean that

00:23:27.260 you're not going

00:23:28.160 to see much

00:23:28.520 new going there.

00:23:30.180 You're definitely

00:23:30.940 going to see

00:23:31.420 the critical

00:23:32.120 businesses come

00:23:33.040 back,

00:23:34.340 pharmaceuticals,

00:23:35.220 etc.

00:23:35.620 And I would

00:23:36.320 recommend that

00:23:37.020 that become

00:23:37.480 a cabinet-level

00:23:38.340 job.

00:23:39.300 I think we need

00:23:40.340 a cabinet-level,

00:23:41.620 doesn't have to be

00:23:42.480 a cabinet-level,

00:23:43.020 but a cabinet-level

00:23:43.980 position to do

00:23:45.940 nothing but

00:23:46.500 repatriate our

00:23:48.020 supply chain

00:23:48.660 because it's

00:23:49.940 now a critical,

00:23:51.480 defensive situation.

00:23:52.840 So I think

00:23:53.940 that's going

00:23:54.300 to happen.

00:23:54.700 That's guaranteed.

00:23:55.580 And that'll be

00:23:56.040 tremendous for

00:23:56.680 the economy.

00:23:59.340 I think

00:24:00.020 businesses that

00:24:00.780 were profitable

00:24:01.420 before the

00:24:02.240 virus will have

00:24:03.020 no problems

00:24:03.740 getting bank

00:24:04.700 credit to go

00:24:05.520 back to work.

00:24:06.540 If you're a 0.88

00:24:07.180 bank, the very

00:24:08.120 best loan you

00:24:09.100 want to give

00:24:09.540 somebody is for

00:24:10.960 a good business

00:24:11.800 that you know

00:24:12.320 is good.

00:24:12.920 It's been in

00:24:13.340 business 20

00:24:13.940 years, and

00:24:14.820 they've got a

00:24:15.460 temporary shortfall

00:24:17.300 of cash for an

00:24:19.260 identifiable problem

00:24:20.520 that's already been

00:24:21.300 fixed.

00:24:22.840 Oh my God, if

00:24:24.380 you're a banker,

00:24:25.180 and by the way,

00:24:25.620 I used to be a

00:24:26.240 bank lender.

00:24:27.040 I used to make

00:24:27.500 loans to businesses

00:24:28.280 in my early days.

00:24:30.060 If you're a bank

00:24:30.880 lender, you never 0.99

00:24:32.460 get to see that.

00:24:33.340 Well, sometimes you

00:24:34.000 do, but it's your

00:24:34.720 favorite kind of

00:24:35.380 loan.

00:24:36.140 Your favorite loan

00:24:37.080 is the business

00:24:37.860 that's already

00:24:38.400 proved they can

00:24:38.980 make money, had

00:24:40.260 one problem,

00:24:41.500 needed a little

00:24:42.040 cash to just get

00:24:43.020 through, and

00:24:43.520 they've already

00:24:43.860 solved the problem.

00:24:44.820 You can't get

00:24:45.300 better than that.

00:24:45.780 That's your best

00:24:46.360 loan right there.

00:24:47.980 So banks are

00:24:48.560 going to be having

00:24:49.000 a heyday.

00:24:49.940 The good businesses

00:24:51.580 will come back.

00:24:52.840 Reliably.

00:24:54.900 The weak businesses

00:24:55.840 may close, but

00:24:59.120 maybe they were

00:24:59.740 going to anyway,

00:25:00.600 if you know what

00:25:00.980 I mean.

00:25:04.000 If you're new to

00:25:05.340 following me, I

00:25:05.960 should mention that

00:25:06.540 I have a degree in

00:25:07.460 economics and an

00:25:08.480 MBA.

00:25:08.960 If anybody is just

00:25:09.660 popping on here to

00:25:10.480 watch the cartoonist

00:25:11.400 talk, and I'm talking

00:25:12.640 about economics, you're

00:25:13.560 saying to yourself,

00:25:14.240 well, that doesn't

00:25:14.740 make sense.

00:25:15.340 Why am I listening to

00:25:16.080 an artist about

00:25:16.740 economics?

00:25:17.200 economics, but I

00:25:17.960 do have some

00:25:18.380 background in this

00:25:19.100 stuff.

00:25:20.340 And here's something

00:25:24.480 else you should have

00:25:25.140 confidence in.

00:25:29.000 Me.

00:25:30.660 We're going to get

00:25:31.500 through this, and I

00:25:34.840 will guarantee you that

00:25:36.620 the psychology of our

00:25:38.120 economic engine will

00:25:39.900 stay strong.

00:25:41.160 Strong enough.

00:25:42.100 You know, it's going

00:25:42.880 to take a hit, but

00:25:44.400 strong enough.

00:25:45.860 And I'm dedicated

00:25:47.280 full-time to that.

00:25:48.880 I mean, I'm going to

00:25:49.920 be talking about all

00:25:51.120 the topics related

00:25:52.080 around it.

00:25:52.840 I'm not going to be

00:25:53.440 focusing on the

00:25:54.220 economy.

00:25:55.440 But there are smart

00:25:57.400 people who have your

00:25:58.200 back, and they're

00:25:59.180 going to keep the

00:25:59.760 psychology right.

00:26:01.440 We're going to keep 0.99

00:26:02.220 the focus in the

00:26:03.960 right places.

00:26:04.700 We're going to make

00:26:05.200 sure the press is doing

00:26:06.200 its job, and we're

00:26:07.720 going to have a

00:26:08.400 continuous pipeline of

00:26:10.000 advice and feedback

00:26:12.060 to our government.

00:26:13.780 You know, I said

00:26:14.460 this before, but I

00:26:15.480 just need to say this

00:26:16.860 every time it happens

00:26:18.320 because you don't see

00:26:20.500 it happening, and I

00:26:21.280 do.

00:26:23.180 I have experienced,

00:26:24.960 I don't know, eight

00:26:27.600 times in the last few

00:26:29.080 days, probably eight

00:26:29.980 different times, I've

00:26:31.920 seen something that I

00:26:33.060 thought would be useful

00:26:34.060 for the government to

00:26:35.480 know.

00:26:36.320 In some cases, it's

00:26:37.640 people putting together

00:26:39.120 factories, and they

00:26:40.120 need the government to

00:26:41.480 know they're building

00:26:42.040 something that would

00:26:43.040 help.

00:26:44.060 In some cases, it's

00:26:45.260 information, et cetera.

00:26:47.640 But in eight different

00:26:50.060 occasions, I sent an

00:26:52.240 idea up the line and

00:26:54.400 heard confirmation that

00:26:55.660 it reached the White 0.68

00:26:56.460 House, meaning the

00:26:57.640 actual staff that would

00:26:58.740 make the decisions on

00:26:59.760 it, in hours.

00:27:02.440 And sometimes less than

00:27:03.380 an hour.

00:27:04.040 Sometimes less than

00:27:04.740 one hour.

00:27:05.980 A good idea or input

00:27:07.680 would go all the way up

00:27:09.160 to the very committee in

00:27:10.560 the government that

00:27:11.240 cares about it, and I

00:27:12.300 would give feedback

00:27:12.980 right away.

00:27:14.340 And sometimes it meant

00:27:15.200 introducing some people

00:27:16.320 and doing some things.

00:27:17.820 Now, I'm just one

00:27:18.480 person.

00:27:19.300 I don't know how many

00:27:20.260 people are interacting

00:27:21.380 with their government,

00:27:22.560 but I've got to tell

00:27:23.340 you, our form of

00:27:25.800 government tends toward

00:27:27.080 bureaucracy in normal

00:27:28.360 times.

00:27:29.300 And in normal times, it's

00:27:30.480 just hard to get stuff

00:27:31.360 done, let's admit it.

00:27:32.880 Your government just

00:27:34.300 builds layers and

00:27:35.840 layers of complexity

00:27:36.880 until it's just hard to

00:27:38.020 get anything done.

00:27:39.180 But in the emergency,

00:27:40.940 that's all gone.

00:27:43.300 It is all gone.

00:27:44.940 There is no friction

00:27:46.580 between somebody who

00:27:48.460 wants to help and has

00:27:49.340 a good idea and your

00:27:50.620 government.

00:27:51.600 They have just become

00:27:52.600 one entity.

00:27:53.560 The public and the

00:27:54.320 government, we're not

00:27:56.220 even different people

00:27:56.940 anymore.

00:27:57.540 It used to be there's

00:27:58.340 the government and

00:27:59.100 then there's people.

00:28:00.220 We just did this.

00:28:01.700 Oop.

00:28:02.700 Government and people.

00:28:04.700 Same team.

00:28:05.800 Same objective.

00:28:06.520 objective, eye on the

00:28:08.460 ball, everything.

00:28:11.580 So we're going to get

00:28:12.540 this done.

00:28:13.360 So here's what you

00:28:13.960 look for.

00:28:14.520 Look for your

00:28:15.220 government to say that

00:28:16.960 they're considering a

00:28:18.220 phased, phased approach

00:28:20.740 to coming back.

00:28:21.940 And it will be based on

00:28:23.260 having pop-up tents and

00:28:25.600 extra capacity for the

00:28:27.580 mildly sick people who

00:28:30.140 went back to work,

00:28:31.000 maybe, got it, took

00:28:32.960 some pills, rested at

00:28:34.260 home until they were

00:28:34.920 good to go.

00:28:36.520 So everything is

00:28:37.880 trending in exactly the

00:28:39.660 way you want.

00:28:40.600 It will look worse if

00:28:42.640 there's anything that

00:28:43.700 you need to know in the

00:28:45.940 next week, maybe two

00:28:47.880 weeks, the economy is

00:28:50.320 going to look really

00:28:51.440 bad.

00:28:53.180 It's supposed to.

00:28:55.020 That means that our

00:28:56.280 strategy of moving up to

00:28:57.580 the line is getting

00:28:58.900 close to the line.

00:29:00.100 And when we get close,

00:29:01.580 it will be about the

00:29:02.360 same time that we have

00:29:03.300 enough of the meds and

00:29:04.480 enough pop-up tents to

00:29:05.900 give them out.

00:29:07.880 And then it's back to

00:29:08.900 work, people, in a

00:29:09.840 phased way.

00:29:10.700 And if you don't own

00:29:11.740 stocks, if you don't

00:29:13.600 own stocks then,

00:29:15.260 honestly, I'd feel bad

00:29:18.420 for you.

00:29:19.360 And I have to be very

00:29:21.380 careful there.

00:29:22.120 I do not, do not take

00:29:25.320 financial advice from

00:29:26.580 cartoonists.

00:29:27.360 but honestly, I'd feel

00:29:29.240 sorry for you if you

00:29:30.360 didn't own stocks and

00:29:32.620 the president said,

00:29:34.060 we're looking at a

00:29:34.980 phased approach to

00:29:35.900 putting people back to

00:29:36.780 work, you know, based

00:29:38.160 on health and

00:29:38.980 availability of this

00:29:40.020 medicine.

00:29:40.500 That's coming.

00:29:41.620 In the next two weeks,

00:29:43.160 the president of the

00:29:44.180 United States is going

00:29:45.020 to stand in front of

00:29:45.700 the country and say,

00:29:46.700 some of you are going

00:29:48.180 back to work.

00:29:49.860 And here's why.

00:29:52.480 You're going to feel a

00:29:53.360 lot better.

00:29:53.740 So, my job is to keep

00:29:57.160 the psychology of the

00:29:59.100 economy strong until

00:30:02.020 that day the president

00:30:03.020 stands in front of you

00:30:04.040 and says, some people

00:30:05.980 are going back to work.

00:30:07.580 We're going to be

00:30:08.080 careful, but we're

00:30:09.920 starting now.

00:30:11.700 So, there's your good

00:30:13.960 news for the day.

00:30:14.840 I will try to get back

00:30:15.960 with you later today.

00:30:18.740 But you should trust

00:30:19.980 that good, well-meaning,

00:30:22.920 capable people are all

00:30:24.960 over this.

00:30:25.960 And we'll pull you

00:30:26.780 through.

00:30:27.280 You're going to be

00:30:27.700 great.

00:30:28.480 Talk to you later.

00:30:29.080 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 21, 2020

Episode 863 Scott Adams PART2： Let Me Tell You How We Beat the Virus and Get Back to Work Soon

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