Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 22, 2020


Episode 864 Scott Adams： Pls I've Thoughts Before Bedtime While Self-Swaddling In a Warm Blanket


Episode Stats

Length

38 minutes

Words per Minute

152.49197

Word Count

5,795

Sentence Count

295

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

4


Summary

Scott Adams gives his thoughts on the President's decision to stay home from work due to the flu, and how the media isn't getting the whole story. Also, Scott talks about a new drug that could be the cure for the flu.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in it's time for self-swaddling in a warm soft blanket with
00:00:18.760 scott adams still working on the branding i know it's not catchy it's not crisp it will
00:00:26.620 never be a famous international brand but it sure feels good all right how many of you have tried it
00:00:34.980 be honest when i told you it just feels good to wrap yourself in a nice soft blanket and you'll
00:00:43.120 just feel better how many of you tried it if you did you have already realized that it works
00:00:51.760 somebody's saying that greg gulfeld is on well you should record that or watch me on recording
00:01:02.300 after you watch that that is the beauty of technology you can have it both you yeah you
00:01:09.520 can have it both ways but one of us has commercials and the other doesn't and
00:01:15.460 if i were going to record one i would record the one that commercials sorry greg
00:01:22.580 but greg's got the number one show in his time slot in addition to his other number one show in his
00:01:31.880 time slot so i think he's doing okay i would like to give a special shout out to the people who are
00:01:41.680 going to work the ones who are running the essential services because there are a lot of us and if
00:01:49.780 you're if you're being honest about it the first several days of the staying home not so bad at all
00:01:58.060 not so bad a lot of people will admit that staying home for a few days if they can afford it or if they're
00:02:05.580 still getting a paycheck it's a pretty good deal but there are other people and we should not forget
00:02:12.040 them not just the medical professionals at the front line not just the first responders who have
00:02:18.440 their own job plus you know this on top of it but just the the people who are keeping the lights on
00:02:24.880 there are people who are still going to work still taking the chance and they don't really have
00:02:29.960 much of a choice about it because you need your water you need your electricity you need your
00:02:37.320 essential services and so special thank you from all of us who got to stay home and be safer because
00:02:44.660 of your good work so thank you so i'm seeing lots of people prognosticating about where it's all going
00:02:54.760 and i feel as though they're all making the same one of two mistakes so i haven't seen anybody make
00:03:04.220 both of them but maybe i have but they make at least one of these two mistakes in the analysis
00:03:09.660 and it's a mistake by omission in other words if if these two variables didn't exist
00:03:17.040 then everything they say would be quite sensible but the two variables that keep getting left out
00:03:22.740 are how effective are the pills you know the uh what is it the uh chloroxy hydro clone cl whatever it is
00:03:34.840 and the azithrathrin i think i said them both correctly um but we know there's this cocktail the
00:03:41.700 president tweeted about it um the the professionals the experts dr fauci's playing it down as you should
00:03:50.200 because, remember, he's a smart guy.
00:03:54.620 So if you see two smart people,
00:03:57.320 and I would argue that the president is quite brilliant in his field,
00:04:03.300 Fauci is brilliant in his field,
00:04:05.280 if you see them seem to be on a different page,
00:04:09.380 you have to sort of dig a little deeper.
00:04:11.620 And I think what's happening here
00:04:13.180 is that the president wants to give the country hope.
00:04:16.960 So he's a little biased toward the Hopi side of things.
00:04:20.720 But that he's been told there's reason to have hope.
00:04:23.340 I don't think he's making it up.
00:04:24.960 I don't think he went rogue.
00:04:26.680 I'm pretty sure he's talked to real people who said,
00:04:29.580 yeah, this combination of pills looks pretty promising.
00:04:33.520 But here's the thing.
00:04:35.900 Everybody in the world wants those pills.
00:04:39.180 And they want them before they even have the coronavirus, right?
00:04:43.640 Because, I mean, you know, seriously,
00:04:47.220 if you could, you know, on the down low,
00:04:50.200 get a little batch of that medicine somehow,
00:04:53.300 you'd do it, wouldn't you?
00:04:55.260 Just to keep your family safe, if not yourself.
00:04:58.200 And you'd say, well, if I got enough of it,
00:05:01.240 I think I'll just be chopping these for a while
00:05:03.680 because they don't have a gigantic risk
00:05:06.820 unless you take them for a long time.
00:05:08.900 And maybe that's not your plan.
00:05:10.460 So, if you could hoard them, would you?
00:05:15.800 Oh, yeah.
00:05:17.140 Oh, yeah.
00:05:18.300 You would be a hoarding son of a beehive, wouldn't you?
00:05:23.840 Hi, kids.
00:05:25.080 Hi, children who are awake late and home from school.
00:05:28.920 Yeah, so, here's what I think is happening.
00:05:34.640 And the media is reporting it like it's some kind of mistake
00:05:38.400 of communication or something.
00:05:40.300 And I think they're missing the whole story,
00:05:42.140 which is the president is sort of playing the good cop.
00:05:47.020 You're not used to that, are you?
00:05:48.440 When was the last time that President Trump played good cop?
00:05:53.100 Right?
00:05:53.560 He usually plays bad cop.
00:05:55.240 But he's playing good cop.
00:05:56.860 You know, I feel good about this.
00:05:58.360 I'm no doctor.
00:05:59.240 I can't guarantee it, but I feel good about these pills.
00:06:03.380 And Dr. Fauci's playing bad cop.
00:06:06.220 Productively.
00:06:08.240 Productively.
00:06:09.280 If you said to me, Scott, you know, I'd really,
00:06:12.140 I'd be a lot happier if Fauci just agreed with the president
00:06:16.120 or, conversely, I'd be a lot happier
00:06:19.340 if the president just said exactly what Fauci said.
00:06:22.740 There was just no difference.
00:06:24.660 Would you?
00:06:26.400 Would you?
00:06:27.580 Would you be happier?
00:06:29.360 I wouldn't.
00:06:31.060 Because I think that they got their act exactly right.
00:06:34.840 You know, I doubt they talked about it and said,
00:06:36.820 you do this, I'll do that.
00:06:37.820 I don't think it's like that.
00:06:39.160 But I think it's just two smart people
00:06:41.380 who knew that they had a slightly different job.
00:06:46.120 So they did their slightly different jobs.
00:06:49.000 Did them well.
00:06:50.640 Fauci kept us from, you know, having a run on these things.
00:06:54.480 President Trump said there's reason to be optimistic.
00:06:57.760 I kind of like those dual messages, actually.
00:06:59.840 That works pretty well for me.
00:07:01.740 But, so here's the first thing.
00:07:02.960 When people say where it's going to go,
00:07:05.340 they kind of discount the fact
00:07:07.060 that if the early reports are right,
00:07:10.040 the pills are kind of a solution.
00:07:14.500 It's a way out.
00:07:15.800 Now you'd have to design your path out,
00:07:18.740 but it's the variable you need to complete the design.
00:07:23.060 Because right now, without the pills
00:07:25.440 and without the testing kits,
00:07:26.940 which is the other variable that people forget,
00:07:29.340 actually, the testing kits,
00:07:31.700 people act as if they exist.
00:07:33.240 And very smart people will say,
00:07:36.620 people, people,
00:07:38.580 I don't know what you're all missing here.
00:07:41.100 All we have to do is test like crazy,
00:07:44.080 and then we can all go back to work.
00:07:47.480 Yeah, with the non-existent tests.
00:07:51.840 Now, of course, they exist in great quantity,
00:07:54.020 but the quantities we need are even more vast
00:07:56.460 than the tremendous amount
00:07:58.200 that we've been able to put together so far.
00:08:00.340 So, yeah, there's nobody who has missed that trick.
00:08:06.700 If you're explaining to us
00:08:08.340 that we need to do massive testing,
00:08:10.640 I don't know what you're really telling me
00:08:13.060 because I think that's what every single person
00:08:15.260 in the world wants to do
00:08:16.620 if we add a massive number of tests.
00:08:19.700 And I'm pretty sure we're working pretty hard on that.
00:08:22.020 So, any analysis of where this is going
00:08:26.660 needs to mention those two things
00:08:29.760 that the pills will probably have,
00:08:32.660 I'm guessing, sooner.
00:08:34.640 How hard is it to print additional pills?
00:08:39.260 I'm guessing it's something you do pretty well.
00:08:41.960 I mean, it feels like you could, you know,
00:08:44.220 you just cranked those babies out like crazy, couldn't you?
00:08:47.100 So, if I had to guess,
00:08:49.780 we're going to get enough pills
00:08:51.600 way before we're going to get enough test kits.
00:08:55.920 So, I see it as sort of a two-phase thing,
00:08:59.000 which is phase one,
00:09:00.100 if we're happy that the pills work,
00:09:02.260 then we can say,
00:09:03.160 okay, if you're young and healthy and under 60,
00:09:05.820 under these conditions and in these places,
00:09:08.920 give it a shot.
00:09:10.180 Go back to work.
00:09:11.960 You know, and as soon as you get a symptom,
00:09:14.180 boom, go in and get a pill
00:09:15.580 because we have enough of them now.
00:09:16.880 So, that's phase one.
00:09:18.920 Phase two is the tests.
00:09:21.800 You have to have enough of them.
00:09:23.360 They have to be used in a statistically wise way,
00:09:27.060 which we can figure out.
00:09:28.080 And then, you can start to free up the over-60s
00:09:31.700 and the people at risk.
00:09:32.920 You know, you need the tests to get to that last level.
00:09:36.260 But you can rescue the economy
00:09:38.080 before you get as many tests as you need.
00:09:42.740 And this is what I think it would take.
00:09:46.100 I think it would take pop-up tents
00:09:48.480 staffed by, you know, nurses
00:09:51.020 and, you know, maybe retired medical workers
00:09:54.740 who know enough to put on a mask,
00:09:57.740 assuming we have enough,
00:09:59.240 and they know enough to, you know,
00:10:01.700 keep a distance from people,
00:10:03.660 and then make them drive up.
00:10:06.180 And this is just how I would do it.
00:10:08.080 And this is only because it's an emergency, right?
00:10:10.800 So, if it were not an emergency,
00:10:13.840 this would be way too reckless.
00:10:16.200 But all the rules are suspended
00:10:18.020 in favor of what makes sense at the moment.
00:10:21.840 So, we're not just going by the rule book
00:10:24.000 and now we're going by what works.
00:10:26.780 You know, what's my risk balance?
00:10:28.620 And that might make, you know,
00:10:30.020 it might be different at any moment.
00:10:32.000 So, here's what I can imagine.
00:10:34.000 A set of rules that would be something like this.
00:10:37.240 You feel like you've got a cough.
00:10:40.040 You drive immediately to one of these pop-up tents
00:10:42.980 that's ideally would be walking distance
00:10:45.400 from a major hospital
00:10:46.600 in case anything needs to be quickly identified
00:10:49.180 for escalation.
00:10:50.500 You're right there.
00:10:51.240 You drive up.
00:10:53.520 You get in line behind the other car
00:10:55.000 so you're not, you know,
00:10:56.400 you're not being contaminated
00:10:57.400 by someone who has it
00:10:59.560 and maybe you don't have it
00:11:01.080 so you're not standing near them.
00:11:02.920 You're in your car.
00:11:04.380 As the cars move up,
00:11:06.140 the medical professional says,
00:11:08.940 checklist.
00:11:10.860 Have you filled out the checklist
00:11:12.460 that we, you know,
00:11:14.160 that we put through a crack in your window
00:11:16.260 while you were waiting earlier
00:11:18.240 so you had time to fill it out?
00:11:20.560 And the checklist would be, you know,
00:11:22.220 prior medical history,
00:11:24.160 trying to find out
00:11:25.120 if there's any reason
00:11:26.080 these drugs would kill you.
00:11:28.080 Do you have any underlying conditions?
00:11:30.000 You know, what kind of symptoms
00:11:30.920 are we having?
00:11:32.020 And then when you get there,
00:11:34.040 maybe you don't even hand the paper
00:11:36.040 to anybody.
00:11:37.060 Maybe you just hold it up
00:11:38.380 to your closed window
00:11:39.320 and you say, you know,
00:11:41.240 here's my deal.
00:11:42.980 And if it's just a one-page checklist,
00:11:45.320 the medical professional
00:11:46.440 from six feet away says,
00:11:49.400 all right, looks, you know,
00:11:51.360 looks good.
00:11:52.120 You qualify.
00:11:53.680 We don't know if you have coronavirus.
00:11:56.220 But here's the important part
00:11:58.260 of the idea.
00:11:59.860 It doesn't matter
00:12:00.780 if you have enough of the meds
00:12:03.140 and they work.
00:12:04.880 And we have a good feeling
00:12:06.600 about them being safe enough
00:12:08.160 in short-term doses.
00:12:09.960 So then let's say
00:12:12.160 that you've held up your thing.
00:12:14.000 Your checklist looks good.
00:12:15.460 The medical professional
00:12:16.320 is six footed away
00:12:17.320 behind your glass window.
00:12:20.040 They don't know if you have it
00:12:21.120 or if you have seasonal flu.
00:12:23.060 It doesn't matter
00:12:24.040 because they have enough pills.
00:12:26.560 So everything depends
00:12:27.480 on having enough, right?
00:12:28.600 It's all about that.
00:12:29.980 And then you say,
00:12:30.620 okay, you qualified.
00:12:31.840 The checklist works.
00:12:33.220 Pop your trunk.
00:12:34.760 So without getting out of the car,
00:12:37.340 you pop your trunk.
00:12:38.640 They throw the pills in the back
00:12:41.420 with some instructions
00:12:42.280 and when to take them.
00:12:43.780 They close it with their elbow
00:12:45.020 and you're off.
00:12:47.000 No physical contact.
00:12:49.040 Not even a handoff contact.
00:12:51.440 Nothing changed places.
00:12:55.240 Somebody says,
00:12:56.120 no trunk?
00:12:58.220 I don't know why.
00:12:59.740 I mean, you can just throw it
00:13:00.660 in the back seat.
00:13:01.560 The point is,
00:13:02.980 you could do it easily
00:13:04.020 without any contact.
00:13:05.040 And then you can just
00:13:07.680 start cranking them out.
00:13:08.940 Now,
00:13:09.920 the big variable is,
00:13:11.720 is it safe enough?
00:13:12.920 Is it efficacious?
00:13:14.740 Is it,
00:13:16.060 will we have them
00:13:17.140 in large numbers?
00:13:18.400 And do we know
00:13:19.140 who it would
00:13:20.420 be dangerous for
00:13:22.140 exactly?
00:13:23.520 You know,
00:13:23.840 do we have enough?
00:13:24.840 So those are some big questions,
00:13:26.520 but they feel very solvable.
00:13:28.320 That's,
00:13:31.360 so,
00:13:31.940 you know,
00:13:32.720 the reason that I,
00:13:34.140 I try to draw the picture
00:13:36.260 this way
00:13:36.680 so you can actually
00:13:37.240 visualize it,
00:13:38.340 because I hope I drew
00:13:39.200 a picture
00:13:39.620 where you actually
00:13:40.700 imagine the cars in line,
00:13:42.340 you saw the pop-up tent,
00:13:43.620 you saw the professionals,
00:13:44.640 you saw the whole scene.
00:13:46.360 And the reason I do that
00:13:47.280 is that
00:13:47.720 if you have a problem
00:13:49.460 and you can't even
00:13:50.380 imagine how it could
00:13:51.740 be solved,
00:13:53.200 that's just the worst
00:13:54.160 kind of problem.
00:13:54.840 So whether that's
00:13:57.800 the solution
00:13:58.340 as I described
00:13:59.300 or it goes
00:13:59.840 some other path,
00:14:00.880 we're definitely
00:14:01.460 going to get to
00:14:01.940 the other side of it.
00:14:02.700 That's the only thing
00:14:03.300 that's beyond question.
00:14:04.760 We'll get to the other
00:14:05.560 side of it,
00:14:06.840 you know,
00:14:07.400 one way or the other.
00:14:09.260 But,
00:14:10.560 if you can imagine
00:14:12.700 this series,
00:14:13.980 it should make you
00:14:14.720 feel comfortable
00:14:15.420 because it's
00:14:16.800 pretty practical.
00:14:17.960 And then,
00:14:18.980 you know,
00:14:19.360 you do that,
00:14:20.280 get the economy
00:14:21.120 back to work
00:14:22.120 at,
00:14:22.700 you know,
00:14:23.040 75%,
00:14:24.120 and a few
00:14:25.840 months later
00:14:26.680 you've got enough
00:14:27.200 test kits
00:14:27.720 to start phasing
00:14:28.580 in the over 60s.
00:14:30.580 So that's how
00:14:31.140 I see it going down.
00:14:33.040 And that's all good.
00:14:34.460 I told you
00:14:35.280 to put some
00:14:37.000 questions
00:14:37.500 in my
00:14:38.300 Twitter feed
00:14:39.840 and so I'm going
00:14:40.700 to answer
00:14:41.000 some of these
00:14:41.580 questions.
00:14:44.900 Tesla P90D
00:14:46.440 says,
00:14:46.920 what would need
00:14:47.860 to happen
00:14:48.280 for quarantine
00:14:49.120 to end next week?
00:14:50.800 Well,
00:14:51.060 I don't know
00:14:51.380 if we're calling
00:14:51.840 it quarantine,
00:14:52.820 but I know
00:14:53.300 what you're
00:14:53.540 talking about.
00:14:55.780 What would
00:14:56.400 need to happen?
00:14:58.240 I don't think
00:14:59.080 there's any chance
00:14:59.980 it ends
00:15:00.860 as a complete
00:15:02.640 thing next week.
00:15:04.280 So I wouldn't
00:15:05.400 want to give you
00:15:05.940 any optimism
00:15:06.620 that next week
00:15:07.500 it's just all off.
00:15:08.600 Hey,
00:15:08.880 everything's back
00:15:09.460 to normal.
00:15:10.440 I'd say that's
00:15:10.920 a zero chance.
00:15:12.580 But,
00:15:13.300 I'd say there's
00:15:14.320 at least a 50%
00:15:15.780 chance
00:15:16.480 that in one week
00:15:18.320 the medical
00:15:19.060 profession
00:15:19.620 will say,
00:15:20.280 yeah,
00:15:21.420 we don't
00:15:21.840 have the
00:15:23.040 largest,
00:15:24.020 best,
00:15:25.180 longitudinal
00:15:25.860 studies in
00:15:26.920 the world
00:15:27.320 for these
00:15:27.760 meds,
00:15:28.800 but darn it,
00:15:29.780 we're seeing
00:15:30.320 such good
00:15:30.840 results,
00:15:31.460 we just have
00:15:32.140 to go with it.
00:15:32.720 It wouldn't
00:15:32.980 make sense
00:15:33.460 to hold off
00:15:34.220 at that point.
00:15:35.660 So,
00:15:37.060 then it's a
00:15:37.840 matter of
00:15:38.240 do you have
00:15:38.540 enough pills
00:15:39.000 and pop-up
00:15:39.740 tents or
00:15:40.360 whatever your
00:15:40.880 mechanism is
00:15:41.580 to get it
00:15:42.000 to people.
00:15:42.480 It doesn't
00:15:42.720 have to be
00:15:43.120 tents.
00:15:43.400 All right,
00:15:44.920 so I'd
00:15:46.340 say 50%
00:15:47.340 chance you'll
00:15:48.020 have really
00:15:49.200 good news
00:15:49.940 next week
00:15:50.640 on a path
00:15:52.500 out,
00:15:53.240 but really
00:15:54.000 bad news
00:15:54.840 about number
00:15:56.160 of people
00:15:56.520 infected.
00:15:57.120 That's just
00:15:57.420 going to keep
00:15:57.820 going up
00:15:58.280 for a while.
00:15:59.960 Let's see.
00:16:01.980 What do you
00:16:02.220 think contributed
00:16:02.820 to New York's
00:16:03.880 current situation
00:16:05.640 the most?
00:16:06.840 Well,
00:16:07.260 it's probably
00:16:07.560 not one thing.
00:16:09.020 It would be
00:16:09.760 density,
00:16:10.620 would be one.
00:16:11.600 It would be
00:16:12.100 a climate
00:16:12.760 where people
00:16:13.600 are still
00:16:14.100 kind of
00:16:14.580 indoors a
00:16:15.140 lot for
00:16:15.820 another.
00:16:17.280 It would
00:16:18.120 be more
00:16:19.400 international
00:16:20.120 travel than
00:16:21.100 maybe any
00:16:21.720 place else
00:16:22.200 in the
00:16:22.500 country.
00:16:23.620 It's a
00:16:24.460 large population,
00:16:26.280 crowded areas,
00:16:27.540 it's basically
00:16:28.020 everything.
00:16:29.360 Every possible
00:16:30.640 thing that you
00:16:31.240 could have
00:16:31.860 that would
00:16:32.700 make things
00:16:33.260 worse,
00:16:34.020 except elderly.
00:16:36.480 Right?
00:16:37.660 Now,
00:16:38.480 I'm talking
00:16:39.100 off the top
00:16:39.640 of my head,
00:16:40.380 but having
00:16:41.180 been to
00:16:42.040 mostly
00:16:43.380 Manhattan,
00:16:44.180 but been
00:16:44.700 to New
00:16:45.000 York lots
00:16:45.460 of times,
00:16:46.340 I'm often
00:16:47.320 struck by
00:16:48.040 how young
00:16:48.480 it is.
00:16:50.300 San Francisco
00:16:50.920 is similar.
00:16:52.800 So it
00:16:53.260 could be
00:16:53.860 that New
00:16:54.960 York will
00:16:55.660 have just
00:16:57.040 tons of
00:16:58.040 infections,
00:16:59.340 maybe because
00:17:00.080 they have
00:17:01.160 also the
00:17:01.880 first-class
00:17:02.380 hospitals,
00:17:03.640 and I
00:17:04.020 think a
00:17:04.560 lower
00:17:04.860 percentage
00:17:06.200 of elderly.
00:17:07.320 somebody
00:17:08.420 is saying
00:17:08.760 true in
00:17:09.200 the comments,
00:17:09.880 but I'd
00:17:11.520 have to
00:17:11.760 see a
00:17:12.080 source.
00:17:13.540 All
00:17:13.620 right,
00:17:14.560 Alvaro
00:17:15.360 says,
00:17:16.180 is Trump
00:17:17.520 going to
00:17:18.380 be re-elected?
00:17:19.940 Well,
00:17:20.200 I always
00:17:20.480 like to
00:17:20.880 express that
00:17:21.760 in a
00:17:22.280 if nothing
00:17:23.200 changed,
00:17:24.880 which is
00:17:25.320 ridiculous,
00:17:26.360 right?
00:17:27.220 Because
00:17:27.760 everything
00:17:28.080 will change.
00:17:28.720 Nobody
00:17:28.940 saw the
00:17:30.080 coronavirus
00:17:30.460 coming a
00:17:31.180 month ago,
00:17:31.960 but from
00:17:33.200 day one,
00:17:33.860 when people
00:17:34.240 have been
00:17:34.580 asking me
00:17:35.080 about
00:17:35.440 re-election,
00:17:36.440 I always
00:17:36.820 say,
00:17:37.800 if nothing
00:17:38.320 changes,
00:17:39.760 and of
00:17:40.180 course it
00:17:40.660 will.
00:17:41.940 So it's
00:17:42.320 sort of
00:17:42.560 useless to
00:17:43.200 have a
00:17:43.460 prediction
00:17:43.780 when you
00:17:44.120 know
00:17:44.240 everything's
00:17:44.680 going to
00:17:44.860 change and
00:17:45.420 it will
00:17:45.700 matter.
00:17:46.140 It's
00:17:46.240 going to
00:17:46.400 be big
00:17:46.700 stuff.
00:17:47.380 But if
00:17:48.580 you
00:17:48.800 straight-lined
00:17:49.380 it and
00:17:50.420 just said
00:17:50.920 what we
00:17:51.520 know today
00:17:52.100 is just
00:17:52.620 exactly the
00:17:53.500 only things
00:17:53.940 we'll know
00:17:54.420 on election
00:17:54.960 day,
00:17:55.720 you would
00:17:56.080 win in
00:17:56.440 a landslide.
00:17:57.900 It
00:17:58.180 wouldn't
00:17:58.380 even be
00:17:58.780 close.
00:18:00.160 That's
00:18:00.680 already,
00:18:01.320 and that's
00:18:01.640 before we
00:18:02.260 get any
00:18:03.620 kind of a
00:18:04.040 good result
00:18:04.580 with this.
00:18:05.080 By election
00:18:05.980 day we'll
00:18:06.560 certainly be
00:18:07.460 on top
00:18:07.860 of it.
00:18:08.580 So yeah,
00:18:09.040 I think
00:18:10.500 he'll just
00:18:10.900 might be
00:18:11.860 one of the
00:18:12.200 biggest,
00:18:12.560 it's possible
00:18:13.160 it will be
00:18:13.560 one of the
00:18:13.880 biggest
00:18:14.240 blowouts
00:18:15.540 in election
00:18:16.380 history.
00:18:16.940 It's possible.
00:18:18.540 I wouldn't
00:18:19.200 say that's
00:18:19.560 probable,
00:18:20.180 but it's
00:18:20.400 definitely
00:18:20.880 possible.
00:18:22.720 All right,
00:18:23.020 Marsha
00:18:23.380 asked me,
00:18:24.420 how do you
00:18:24.740 stay so
00:18:25.200 upbeat
00:18:25.540 during
00:18:26.280 turmoil?
00:18:30.260 Practice.
00:18:30.820 A lot
00:18:33.620 of it
00:18:33.880 is just
00:18:35.300 being able
00:18:35.840 to see
00:18:36.340 the field.
00:18:37.640 I talk
00:18:38.060 about this
00:18:38.600 almost too
00:18:39.980 much,
00:18:40.880 which is
00:18:41.460 the longer
00:18:42.340 you live,
00:18:43.060 the more
00:18:43.340 things you've
00:18:43.880 seen.
00:18:44.860 So I just
00:18:45.440 have a
00:18:45.960 larger
00:18:46.300 framework of
00:18:47.260 things I've
00:18:47.820 seen,
00:18:48.200 but on top
00:18:48.740 of that,
00:18:49.440 my actual
00:18:50.100 life experience
00:18:51.160 is really
00:18:52.440 varied,
00:18:53.340 from corporate
00:18:54.540 and economics,
00:18:55.720 art,
00:18:56.700 marketing,
00:18:57.960 branding,
00:18:59.140 persuasion,
00:19:00.060 communication.
00:19:01.460 So I'm not
00:19:02.500 world-class
00:19:04.100 at any of
00:19:04.640 that stuff,
00:19:05.600 but I've
00:19:06.240 done a lot
00:19:06.720 of it,
00:19:07.560 and I've
00:19:08.060 seen a lot
00:19:08.980 of it.
00:19:09.860 So when I
00:19:11.000 see our
00:19:11.380 current
00:19:11.620 situation,
00:19:13.880 it would
00:19:14.380 be,
00:19:15.300 how do I
00:19:15.780 say this
00:19:16.160 without making
00:19:16.800 me sound
00:19:17.200 like a
00:19:17.540 genius,
00:19:18.220 because there's
00:19:18.620 nothing like
00:19:19.100 that going
00:19:19.460 on,
00:19:20.300 it would
00:19:20.920 be like a
00:19:21.460 chess
00:19:21.760 player who's
00:19:23.060 experienced
00:19:23.800 versus a
00:19:25.240 brand-new
00:19:25.620 chess player.
00:19:26.500 So I can
00:19:27.100 just see a
00:19:28.080 few extra
00:19:28.640 moves,
00:19:29.720 because I've
00:19:30.620 studied economics
00:19:31.560 and a few
00:19:33.520 other things
00:19:34.060 that inform
00:19:34.780 my opinion.
00:19:36.260 So when
00:19:37.420 you can see
00:19:37.900 a few extra
00:19:38.540 moves,
00:19:39.180 and it looks
00:19:39.720 like there's
00:19:40.180 a path out,
00:19:41.680 and it's a
00:19:42.180 path out
00:19:42.680 certain,
00:19:44.220 this is a
00:19:45.020 weird problem,
00:19:46.140 because as
00:19:46.900 enormous as
00:19:47.760 it is,
00:19:48.940 our victory
00:19:50.140 over it is
00:19:50.820 actually not
00:19:51.380 in doubt.
00:19:52.920 And it's
00:19:53.480 hard to think
00:19:54.020 of any other
00:19:54.600 situation where
00:19:55.420 that would
00:19:55.780 be true.
00:19:56.860 Almost any
00:19:57.860 situation,
00:19:59.280 we say to
00:20:00.500 ourselves,
00:20:00.940 well, it's a
00:20:01.520 big problem,
00:20:02.140 we're going to
00:20:02.460 work on it,
00:20:03.060 and we just
00:20:03.920 don't know how
00:20:04.480 this is going
00:20:05.020 to turn out.
00:20:06.340 But this
00:20:06.900 virus is very
00:20:07.620 different.
00:20:08.420 We actually
00:20:09.060 know how it's
00:20:09.680 going to turn
00:20:10.060 out.
00:20:11.080 We win.
00:20:12.440 We don't
00:20:12.860 know how
00:20:13.140 long, we
00:20:14.040 don't know
00:20:14.320 what it'll
00:20:14.580 cost, but
00:20:15.180 we win.
00:20:17.280 So it helps
00:20:17.940 to know you
00:20:18.400 win, and it
00:20:19.540 helps to know
00:20:20.160 that there are
00:20:21.380 a number of
00:20:22.060 winnable paths.
00:20:22.960 beyond that,
00:20:25.640 part of my
00:20:26.460 technique, which
00:20:27.100 I've been
00:20:27.380 recommending all
00:20:28.060 week, is
00:20:29.160 that you
00:20:29.560 treat your
00:20:31.380 nerve management,
00:20:33.400 your own
00:20:34.020 sense of
00:20:35.040 anxiety, that
00:20:36.720 where you
00:20:37.460 used to think
00:20:38.260 that was also
00:20:39.240 important, it's
00:20:40.280 like, well, I
00:20:41.400 got a lot of
00:20:41.820 things I need
00:20:42.300 to do.
00:20:42.740 I've got to
00:20:43.060 work, take
00:20:43.940 care of my
00:20:44.320 family, whatever,
00:20:45.760 but I'd also
00:20:46.940 like to work
00:20:48.240 on relaxing,
00:20:49.400 so I'll spend
00:20:50.560 half an hour
00:20:51.080 exercising that
00:20:52.060 day.
00:20:53.080 That's not
00:20:53.700 what I'm
00:20:54.080 talking about
00:20:54.640 now.
00:20:55.700 This is a
00:20:56.700 major, worldwide
00:20:58.680 psychological
00:20:59.640 phenomenon.
00:21:01.360 If you have
00:21:01.980 the time, and
00:21:03.660 a lot of us
00:21:04.280 do, because
00:21:04.680 we're locked
00:21:05.100 down, if you
00:21:06.080 have the
00:21:06.380 time, your
00:21:08.100 full-time job
00:21:09.060 should be
00:21:09.400 taking care of
00:21:10.080 your own
00:21:10.440 mental state,
00:21:11.620 because we
00:21:12.240 need you at
00:21:12.720 your best, and
00:21:13.680 it's also how
00:21:14.340 you stay
00:21:14.640 healthy.
00:21:15.400 So your
00:21:15.840 immune system
00:21:17.560 will just be
00:21:18.080 better if you
00:21:18.880 keep your
00:21:19.220 attitude good,
00:21:19.980 and you're
00:21:20.380 working on
00:21:21.440 your stress
00:21:22.360 reduction, and
00:21:23.220 your fitness, and
00:21:23.960 everything, and
00:21:25.220 I've been saying
00:21:26.060 this for several
00:21:26.800 days now, and
00:21:27.560 it's actually
00:21:28.580 getting truer
00:21:29.460 every day.
00:21:31.460 I've never
00:21:32.240 been so
00:21:32.680 healthy.
00:21:33.600 I'm like
00:21:34.240 crazy healthy
00:21:34.900 right now.
00:21:36.180 I don't know
00:21:36.900 if you can
00:21:37.200 tell, because
00:21:38.580 I've had a
00:21:39.440 rough several
00:21:40.040 months, just
00:21:40.780 one little
00:21:41.560 nagging thing
00:21:42.240 after another,
00:21:42.900 nothing important,
00:21:44.300 but man, I
00:21:46.140 mean, I'm
00:21:46.520 exercising just
00:21:47.500 right, I'm
00:21:48.160 sleeping well,
00:21:49.000 I've gotten
00:21:50.080 rid of a
00:21:50.580 lot of
00:21:50.860 other
00:21:51.240 stresses in
00:21:51.960 my life, just
00:21:52.780 because life
00:21:53.500 simplified so
00:21:54.360 much, I
00:21:54.860 just have
00:21:55.820 less to do, and
00:21:57.560 I'm just
00:21:58.560 taking it like
00:21:59.120 it's my
00:21:59.480 full-time
00:21:59.920 job.
00:22:00.720 I talk to
00:22:01.500 you, I
00:22:01.900 do my
00:22:02.280 cartooning, but
00:22:03.660 other than
00:22:04.000 that, you
00:22:05.380 know, it's a
00:22:06.380 nice warm
00:22:06.960 shower, a
00:22:07.780 nice long
00:22:08.400 walk outside,
00:22:10.580 play with
00:22:11.000 the dog, it's
00:22:12.160 my full-time
00:22:12.780 job.
00:22:13.160 So if I
00:22:14.080 seem like I'm
00:22:15.800 handling the
00:22:16.340 stress well,
00:22:16.960 that's not a
00:22:18.860 genetic gift,
00:22:20.620 that's the
00:22:21.400 result of hard
00:22:22.180 work and a
00:22:24.120 strategy, and
00:22:25.640 working on it
00:22:26.460 literally every
00:22:27.260 day and
00:22:27.940 putting lots of
00:22:28.680 hours into it.
00:22:30.500 Somebody says
00:22:31.420 your polyps
00:22:32.500 sound worse.
00:22:39.280 Well, do
00:22:40.100 they?
00:22:40.560 Do my
00:22:40.900 polyps sound
00:22:41.900 worse.
00:22:43.600 I feel like I
00:22:45.080 sound a little
00:22:45.780 less nasally to
00:22:46.940 myself, but
00:22:47.760 you know, you
00:22:48.280 can never hear
00:22:48.820 yourself exactly.
00:22:52.220 So, what
00:22:54.060 was I
00:22:54.460 saying?
00:22:56.820 Oh, so in
00:22:57.660 terms of
00:22:58.180 relaxing, so
00:23:00.360 because this
00:23:04.160 might be a
00:23:04.680 little bit too
00:23:05.340 much behind the
00:23:06.380 curtain information,
00:23:07.940 but watch how
00:23:08.520 it doesn't
00:23:08.820 change anything.
00:23:09.480 because those
00:23:12.980 of you who are
00:23:13.480 regular viewers
00:23:14.320 of my
00:23:14.920 Periscope have
00:23:16.300 formed a
00:23:17.260 relationship with
00:23:18.820 me, and I
00:23:20.160 don't think that's
00:23:20.740 too strong a
00:23:21.600 word.
00:23:22.460 You know, I'm
00:23:25.020 always gagging
00:23:26.960 when people on
00:23:28.120 TV say, oh,
00:23:28.980 we're all a
00:23:29.400 family and stuff
00:23:30.140 like that, but I
00:23:31.820 think you would
00:23:32.680 agree there's
00:23:33.100 something about
00:23:33.540 this medium,
00:23:34.900 the live
00:23:35.440 streaming, and
00:23:36.260 especially the
00:23:36.800 way Periscope does
00:23:37.700 it, their
00:23:38.180 interface is just
00:23:39.880 tremendous, that
00:23:41.660 makes this
00:23:42.020 personal.
00:23:43.680 This feels like a
00:23:44.400 personal connection.
00:23:45.780 And because we
00:23:46.280 have a personal
00:23:46.840 connection, that
00:23:48.000 sets up what a
00:23:48.980 hypnotist would
00:23:49.780 describe as
00:23:51.320 pacing and
00:23:52.080 leading.
00:23:52.520 You've heard me
00:23:53.060 talk about this
00:23:53.700 before.
00:23:54.700 So because you've
00:23:55.760 paced me, meaning
00:23:57.900 that you've done
00:24:00.260 the simultaneous
00:24:01.020 hip, you've done
00:24:02.100 what I did, you
00:24:03.080 meet me here in
00:24:04.040 the morning, 7 a.m.
00:24:05.740 my time, whatever
00:24:06.560 your time, and
00:24:07.780 because it's part
00:24:08.380 of your routine, we
00:24:09.400 formed a connection
00:24:11.040 as if by an
00:24:11.940 invisible string.
00:24:13.860 When you pull, I
00:24:15.120 go, and you're
00:24:16.780 pulling as well as
00:24:17.500 I'm pulling, because
00:24:18.620 I'm reading your
00:24:19.260 comments and
00:24:19.860 responding to them
00:24:20.780 in real time, and
00:24:21.420 you can feel it.
00:24:22.480 You can feel a
00:24:23.840 commenter will pull
00:24:24.740 me, and I'll go,
00:24:26.020 and then I'll pull
00:24:27.060 you, and then
00:24:28.040 you'll pull me.
00:24:28.780 We're just
00:24:29.080 connected by this
00:24:29.800 invisible string.
00:24:31.560 And because of
00:24:32.120 that, that created
00:24:34.380 an opportunity
00:24:36.420 that I could
00:24:38.360 relax myself, and
00:24:41.020 it would relax
00:24:41.760 all of you.
00:24:43.400 And that was
00:24:44.020 actually a
00:24:44.800 conscious part of
00:24:45.680 my strategy.
00:24:46.580 Now, of course, I
00:24:47.080 would have done it
00:24:47.540 for myself under
00:24:48.360 any circumstances,
00:24:51.060 but I realized
00:24:53.260 consciously that
00:24:55.340 because of this
00:24:56.000 connection we
00:24:56.680 had formed, the
00:24:58.080 more relaxed I
00:25:00.440 am, the more
00:25:02.360 you will automatically
00:25:03.380 be relaxed, you
00:25:04.600 know, almost
00:25:05.060 independent of what
00:25:06.020 I say about
00:25:06.560 things, as long
00:25:07.240 as I don't, you
00:25:08.300 know, whip you
00:25:08.740 up into a
00:25:09.220 frenzy.
00:25:09.880 So, it's all very
00:25:10.920 intentional, and I,
00:25:12.360 and, you know, I'm
00:25:14.560 not trying to hide
00:25:15.180 anything.
00:25:15.500 I am trying to pace
00:25:17.700 you and lead you to
00:25:19.420 relaxation, and I
00:25:22.960 hope that I'm doing
00:25:23.580 that.
00:25:24.280 So, let's look at
00:25:25.400 some more questions.
00:25:29.560 Are you using, let's
00:25:31.160 say, Simon says, are
00:25:32.480 you using your same
00:25:33.320 movie-slash-story-slash-
00:25:34.760 narrative framework?
00:25:36.380 You know what I
00:25:37.020 mean, says Simon, for
00:25:39.380 understanding coronavirus
00:25:40.580 and how humanity
00:25:41.980 responds.
00:25:43.460 Well, so, for those of
00:25:44.820 you who don't know
00:25:45.160 what that question
00:25:45.740 means, I'll give you a
00:25:46.460 little framework.
00:25:48.180 I've often said that
00:25:49.620 for reasons I can't
00:25:50.760 explain, and it's
00:25:52.460 entirely, most likely
00:25:54.100 confirmation bias, so
00:25:55.800 there's a little bit
00:25:56.360 of sort of an
00:25:56.900 illusion about this, or
00:25:59.000 maybe not.
00:25:59.600 if we're a
00:26:00.640 simulation, maybe it's
00:26:01.740 not a coincidence, but
00:26:02.860 here's the concept, that
00:26:04.920 real life, at least the
00:26:06.680 public stuff, the, you
00:26:08.160 know, things we watch
00:26:08.960 like elections and stuff
00:26:10.220 like that, conform to
00:26:12.300 the three acts of a
00:26:13.780 movie.
00:26:14.920 So often that it's hard
00:26:19.020 to explain how it
00:26:20.000 happens on its own,
00:26:21.460 unless, of course, it's
00:26:22.560 just selective memory and
00:26:24.160 confirmation bias.
00:26:25.660 So there are lots of
00:26:26.280 reasons I can imagine it's
00:26:27.520 happening, but if you
00:26:28.860 were to somehow
00:26:29.520 scientifically measure it,
00:26:31.660 you know, you wouldn't
00:26:32.100 be able to find it.
00:26:34.900 But with Trump, early on
00:26:39.860 in the process, I
00:26:41.080 predicted, because I'd
00:26:43.000 seen this pattern so many
00:26:44.040 times in life, I
00:26:44.900 predicted that it was
00:26:45.920 starting to shape up like
00:26:47.780 a movie.
00:26:48.460 And the way you know it's
00:26:49.260 a movie is that it has
00:26:50.100 three acts, and there's
00:26:51.500 something special about
00:26:52.660 the third act.
00:26:54.200 And the third act, as
00:26:55.520 they call it in script
00:26:56.780 writing, is where the
00:26:58.440 hero is in so much
00:26:59.660 trouble, it's impossible
00:27:01.020 to get out.
00:27:02.360 And you, the viewer, are
00:27:03.700 watching the movie, and
00:27:04.460 you go, well, I don't
00:27:06.040 know, this is going to
00:27:06.700 take some fancy script
00:27:08.120 writing, because there's
00:27:09.620 just no way the hero can
00:27:10.980 get out of this mess.
00:27:12.440 And then it happens, and
00:27:13.900 that's what makes it a
00:27:14.640 movie.
00:27:15.460 So when President Trump
00:27:16.840 was running, I had said,
00:27:18.040 there's going to be a
00:27:18.740 third act, and it's going
00:27:20.960 to look like it's
00:27:21.580 impossible.
00:27:23.000 And then somehow, he'll
00:27:25.600 win anyway.
00:27:27.380 And, you know, you could
00:27:28.860 argue what was the third
00:27:30.100 act, you know, the, in
00:27:33.020 the summer before the
00:27:34.120 election, the Democrats
00:27:37.020 and Hillary Clinton
00:27:37.940 started saying, it's dark,
00:27:39.180 it's dark.
00:27:40.040 And it looked like he was
00:27:41.420 just going to be branded
00:27:42.240 as racist, and he made
00:27:43.580 fun of the, you know, the
00:27:45.860 Gold Star family, and he
00:27:47.120 just thought, all right,
00:27:47.940 there's, this is the third
00:27:49.520 act.
00:27:49.860 It can't get worse than
00:27:51.940 this.
00:27:53.460 And then, the Access
00:27:55.500 Hollywood tape came out.
00:27:58.040 And I said to myself,
00:28:00.100 darn it, I got fooled.
00:28:01.500 Because I've been telling
00:28:02.380 people also, that a good
00:28:04.400 movie has fake third acts.
00:28:07.180 Things that you think are
00:28:08.500 shaping up to be impossible
00:28:10.160 to solve, but then your
00:28:12.000 hero solves them.
00:28:13.760 You know, it's not until
00:28:14.720 you get to the real third
00:28:16.280 act that it's really looking
00:28:17.740 insolvable.
00:28:18.300 And that, of course, was
00:28:19.580 the Access Hollywood tape.
00:28:21.300 And I remember the day I
00:28:22.380 heard that, I just thought,
00:28:23.980 oh, no.
00:28:25.740 I'm watching this movie, and
00:28:28.120 there's no way anybody,
00:28:31.740 anybody could recover from
00:28:33.920 that.
00:28:36.120 But, a few days later, I
00:28:39.380 don't know why, but my
00:28:40.360 confidence returned, and I
00:28:41.940 said to myself, you know, I
00:28:44.420 actually think he is going to
00:28:46.020 beat that.
00:28:47.140 I think the movie is going
00:28:48.600 to be a movie, a proper
00:28:50.580 movie.
00:28:51.520 And I feel like I was the
00:28:52.960 narrator of the movie, at
00:28:54.360 least for some people who
00:28:55.640 were watching me at that
00:28:56.420 time.
00:28:57.340 So, back to your question.
00:28:59.980 Is the coronavirus taking a
00:29:03.040 three-act structure?
00:29:04.480 And I don't know what you
00:29:08.900 would identify as the third
00:29:10.820 act, because most of it's
00:29:12.740 been a little bit
00:29:13.560 predictable, I would say.
00:29:15.480 In other words, smart people
00:29:16.960 were saying early on, this is
00:29:19.000 the way it's going to go, and
00:29:20.180 then it's sort of just, it's
00:29:21.660 going just that way.
00:29:23.120 You know, you could argue
00:29:23.900 about the pace and the scope
00:29:26.160 of it, but it's basically going
00:29:27.400 the way smart people said it
00:29:28.620 would go.
00:29:28.940 So, if it were a movie, there
00:29:32.200 would be, still ahead of us,
00:29:35.040 maybe in the summer, there
00:29:38.460 would be something that made
00:29:41.040 it look unsolvable.
00:29:43.900 And I don't know that we're
00:29:45.520 going to hit that, because if
00:29:47.540 you ask me, everything does
00:29:48.980 look solvable, and we can sort
00:29:50.720 of see it from pretty far away.
00:29:52.520 So it would be a crappy movie if
00:29:54.920 you could see how the movie was
00:29:56.260 going to resolve itself from,
00:29:58.440 you know, six months away, and
00:30:00.280 that would do it.
00:30:01.380 So, I love the question, by
00:30:02.800 the way, and I had been
00:30:03.700 thinking about it in those
00:30:05.360 terms, but it's not shaping up
00:30:09.920 like a movie.
00:30:12.840 Favorite NBA player growing up?
00:30:15.340 What a random question, which
00:30:16.760 I'll answer.
00:30:19.940 Walt Frazier on the Knicks, and
00:30:23.580 Larry Bird.
00:30:24.640 I was just watching a, I was
00:30:27.660 just watching an old, I don't
00:30:29.180 know, some YouTube clips of
00:30:30.440 Larry Bird.
00:30:31.700 Have you ever watched Larry
00:30:34.140 Bird play basketball?
00:30:35.500 I'm not even, like, some big
00:30:37.160 basketball fan, but, oh my
00:30:40.280 goodness, it was like, not even
00:30:43.300 possible, the things he did.
00:30:44.900 I mean, I guess you could say,
00:30:46.700 you know, Michael Jordan was
00:30:48.000 similar, but Jordan looked like
00:30:50.540 he had monstrous talent.
00:30:52.640 You know, in the whole game of
00:30:56.260 basketball, there's monstrous
00:30:57.400 talent, and you could, and it
00:30:58.740 just looked like talent.
00:31:00.260 But when Larry Bird played, and I
00:31:01.960 was watching just tons of old
00:31:03.500 clips, and it's just jaw-dropping,
00:31:06.120 because it doesn't even look like
00:31:07.660 talent, it looks like magic.
00:31:09.940 You know, I guess that's why
00:31:11.500 Magic Johnson got his nickname,
00:31:15.000 because his plays look like magic.
00:31:17.080 But you really get that sense when
00:31:18.720 you watch Larry Bird.
00:31:19.460 All right, have you ever met Gary
00:31:21.160 Larson?
00:31:21.580 I have not.
00:31:22.800 I, of course, know people who have
00:31:24.600 met Gary Larson, and you may have,
00:31:29.360 I don't know if you know it, but
00:31:30.580 there might be some news about
00:31:32.180 Gary Larson.
00:31:33.520 Might be some news about, you could
00:31:36.120 be seeing a little bit more of his
00:31:37.400 stuff.
00:31:38.040 I don't know the details, but there's
00:31:39.640 some motion in that direction.
00:31:44.040 Somebody says, Nico says, if you get a
00:31:47.380 mild case of COVID and recover, are you
00:31:49.820 immune?
00:31:51.000 I will tell you my non-scientific answer,
00:31:54.220 subject to fact-checking.
00:31:56.680 The answer is, maybe, kind of.
00:32:00.880 So here's the best I can determine.
00:32:02.840 I've been looking for that answer
00:32:04.160 myself, and asking it, and looking at
00:32:06.540 different people's answers, and I don't
00:32:08.440 know if I've ever talked to, you know,
00:32:10.240 I don't know if I've asked the right
00:32:13.140 expert about this, but here's my best
00:32:15.960 understanding, that you do get some
00:32:19.080 immunity, but it's not permanent.
00:32:22.260 In other words, you know, a couple years
00:32:23.940 later, if you were not re-exposed to it,
00:32:26.820 it might bite you again, and by then
00:32:29.340 maybe it's morphed a little or evolved a
00:32:31.780 little, so it's slightly different.
00:32:33.400 I don't know.
00:32:33.920 I don't know the details.
00:32:35.220 So you should ignore anything I say on
00:32:37.240 this topic, but my understanding, subject
00:32:41.080 to somebody-please-fix-it, is that you
00:32:44.080 do get immunity, but it might not be
00:32:46.920 forever.
00:32:50.480 Let's see.
00:32:54.360 All these masks and respirators, it's
00:32:56.540 all based on demand, cases in the
00:32:57.900 future.
00:32:58.280 Will we need that many?
00:32:59.760 I don't see it happening.
00:33:01.240 The vast majority of people who get
00:33:02.800 infected recover.
00:33:04.480 Well, I've seen, anecdotally, I've
00:33:07.020 seen some reports from, in fact, I may
00:33:12.200 have tweeted it.
00:33:14.080 I'm not sure if I did, or I just read
00:33:15.580 it, but there is a doctor who goes
00:33:18.340 through the math of it, and the thing
00:33:20.160 we don't understand is how often they
00:33:23.500 need to change them, because if you're
00:33:25.740 dealing with one infected person, you
00:33:27.920 need one set of protective equipment and
00:33:30.080 masks and gloves, but as soon as you're
00:33:32.220 done, you have to toss that stuff, or
00:33:35.800 whatever you do with it, but you can't
00:33:37.160 wear it a second time if you're doing
00:33:39.320 things properly.
00:33:40.700 So apparently the number of masks and
00:33:43.620 gowns and stuff that they go through is
00:33:46.020 just incredible.
00:33:48.580 We're talking about tens of thousands of
00:33:50.760 them per one hospital in a very short
00:33:53.840 amount of time.
00:33:54.580 Tens of thousands.
00:33:56.360 Tens of thousands of masks in one
00:33:59.340 hospital in a fairly short amount of time.
00:34:01.580 I don't know if that's, you know, a week
00:34:04.280 or a month or whatever, but it's tens of
00:34:05.860 thousands.
00:34:06.320 So, you know, you get the big numbers
00:34:07.800 really quickly, because that's just one
00:34:09.600 hospital.
00:34:12.400 Taylor says, is this the black swan event
00:34:15.080 for blockchain crypto Bitcoin?
00:34:17.380 You know, it feels like crypto has to prove
00:34:27.200 itself, and maybe that's what you're
00:34:29.220 asking.
00:34:30.100 I feel as though if Bitcoin had gone up
00:34:33.900 when the market went down, I would have
00:34:37.900 said, you should never again not own
00:34:39.940 Bitcoin.
00:34:42.280 If it's the last thing you do, make sure
00:34:44.880 you get a little bit of money in Bitcoin
00:34:46.560 if it had done that.
00:34:47.880 But in fact, it did the opposite, and it
00:34:49.660 tracked the market.
00:34:51.060 So, why do I need something that tracks
00:34:54.000 the market?
00:34:55.400 You know, unless I want to, I don't know,
00:34:57.300 hide something, or, you know, I find
00:34:59.140 some other advantage of crypto, but it
00:35:02.160 did not perform as an asset class in a
00:35:05.540 way that you would want it to.
00:35:09.520 Let's see.
00:35:10.680 We've got a lot of questions there.
00:35:12.080 I probably won't be able to get to all
00:35:13.240 these. Estimate the time of return to
00:35:15.720 normal, if ever.
00:35:17.200 That will be a phased return.
00:35:22.440 And if I know human beings, by election
00:35:27.520 day, we're going to want to have it kind
00:35:29.640 of wrapped up, if you know what I mean.
00:35:32.320 So, you have to assume that the
00:35:33.840 administration, being, you know, human
00:35:35.840 animals who want to win elections, as
00:35:38.600 well as help the country recover, you
00:35:41.180 know, that it's not inappropriate for
00:35:45.060 political people to act politically in a
00:35:47.340 political season.
00:35:48.440 You know, they're doing an okay job, I
00:35:52.560 would say, of keeping the politics down to
00:35:55.940 an annoying, you know, kind of acceptable,
00:36:00.260 annoying level.
00:36:00.940 But, you know, if we start getting, let's
00:36:06.060 say, 70% control on it, as if you could
00:36:09.440 measure it that way, if we start getting
00:36:11.120 like 70% control on it over the summer,
00:36:15.020 there's going to be all kinds of push to
00:36:18.300 get it done before election day.
00:36:20.380 Now, the excuse, of course, will be so
00:36:22.580 everybody can be safe to vote.
00:36:24.440 But, of course, the president would have,
00:36:26.480 you know, a second benefit from that that
00:36:29.000 you can't really ignore.
00:36:31.800 So, to answer your question, I would
00:36:33.720 expect, based, it bases, entirely based on
00:36:38.720 what the medical profession says about
00:36:40.480 the efficacy and availability of the
00:36:43.620 meds.
00:36:44.900 If you get a good answer about those in
00:36:47.340 the next week or two, I think you see
00:36:49.960 people start going to back, back to work
00:36:52.380 in the third week, if they're young and
00:36:54.900 depending on where they're going, then
00:36:57.200 lots of accommodations, and somewhere
00:36:59.960 around Christmas time, things looking
00:37:04.600 kind of normal, but on our guard because
00:37:07.740 it could flare up again in the winter.
00:37:10.040 So, that's my best guess.
00:37:11.660 So, I'll say that again.
00:37:13.880 Serious returning to week to work in
00:37:17.240 three to four weeks, based on the pills
00:37:21.020 being good, that's the big assumption
00:37:22.420 there, but not over 60 is necessarily
00:37:26.400 right away, and we'll phase them in by
00:37:28.640 election day-ish.
00:37:31.000 That's just a prediction, by the way.
00:37:33.360 So, and I think nobody will go without
00:37:36.880 food, and we will recover fairly quickly.
00:37:41.160 Actually, impressively is my guess.
00:37:42.980 Thank you.