Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 864 Scott Adams： Pls I've Thoughts Before Bedtime While Self-Swaddling In a Warm Blanket

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in it's time for self-swaddling in a warm soft blanket with

00:00:18.760 scott adams still working on the branding i know it's not catchy it's not crisp it will

00:00:26.620 never be a famous international brand but it sure feels good all right how many of you have tried it

00:00:34.980 be honest when i told you it just feels good to wrap yourself in a nice soft blanket and you'll

00:00:43.120 just feel better how many of you tried it if you did you have already realized that it works

00:00:51.760 somebody's saying that greg gulfeld is on well you should record that or watch me on recording

00:01:02.300 after you watch that that is the beauty of technology you can have it both you yeah you

00:01:09.520 can have it both ways but one of us has commercials and the other doesn't and

00:01:15.460 if i were going to record one i would record the one that commercials sorry greg

00:01:22.580 but greg's got the number one show in his time slot in addition to his other number one show in his

00:01:31.880 time slot so i think he's doing okay i would like to give a special shout out to the people who are

00:01:41.680 going to work the ones who are running the essential services because there are a lot of us and if

00:01:49.780 you're if you're being honest about it the first several days of the staying home not so bad at all

00:01:58.060 not so bad a lot of people will admit that staying home for a few days if they can afford it or if they're

00:02:05.580 still getting a paycheck it's a pretty good deal but there are other people and we should not forget

00:02:12.040 them not just the medical professionals at the front line not just the first responders who have

00:02:18.440 their own job plus you know this on top of it but just the the people who are keeping the lights on

00:02:24.880 there are people who are still going to work still taking the chance and they don't really have

00:02:29.960 much of a choice about it because you need your water you need your electricity you need your

00:02:37.320 essential services and so special thank you from all of us who got to stay home and be safer because

00:02:44.660 of your good work so thank you so i'm seeing lots of people prognosticating about where it's all going

00:02:54.760 and i feel as though they're all making the same one of two mistakes so i haven't seen anybody make

00:03:04.220 both of them but maybe i have but they make at least one of these two mistakes in the analysis

00:03:09.660 and it's a mistake by omission in other words if if these two variables didn't exist

00:03:17.040 then everything they say would be quite sensible but the two variables that keep getting left out

00:03:22.740 are how effective are the pills you know the uh what is it the uh chloroxy hydro clone cl whatever it is

00:03:34.840 and the azithrathrin i think i said them both correctly um but we know there's this cocktail the

00:03:41.700 president tweeted about it um the the professionals the experts dr fauci's playing it down as you should

00:03:50.200 because, remember, he's a smart guy.

00:03:54.620 So if you see two smart people,

00:03:57.320 and I would argue that the president is quite brilliant in his field,

00:04:03.300 Fauci is brilliant in his field,

00:04:05.280 if you see them seem to be on a different page,

00:04:09.380 you have to sort of dig a little deeper.

00:04:11.620 And I think what's happening here

00:04:13.180 is that the president wants to give the country hope.

00:04:16.960 So he's a little biased toward the Hopi side of things.

00:04:20.720 But that he's been told there's reason to have hope.

00:04:23.340 I don't think he's making it up.

00:04:24.960 I don't think he went rogue.

00:04:26.680 I'm pretty sure he's talked to real people who said,

00:04:29.580 yeah, this combination of pills looks pretty promising.

00:04:33.520 But here's the thing.

00:04:35.900 Everybody in the world wants those pills.

00:04:39.180 And they want them before they even have the coronavirus, right?

00:04:43.640 Because, I mean, you know, seriously,

00:04:47.220 if you could, you know, on the down low,

00:04:50.200 get a little batch of that medicine somehow,

00:04:53.300 you'd do it, wouldn't you?

00:04:55.260 Just to keep your family safe, if not yourself.

00:04:58.200 And you'd say, well, if I got enough of it,

00:05:01.240 I think I'll just be chopping these for a while

00:05:03.680 because they don't have a gigantic risk

00:05:06.820 unless you take them for a long time.

00:05:08.900 And maybe that's not your plan.

00:05:10.460 So, if you could hoard them, would you?

00:05:15.800 Oh, yeah.

00:05:17.140 Oh, yeah.

00:05:18.300 You would be a hoarding son of a beehive, wouldn't you?

00:05:23.840 Hi, kids.

00:05:25.080 Hi, children who are awake late and home from school.

00:05:28.920 Yeah, so, here's what I think is happening.

00:05:34.640 And the media is reporting it like it's some kind of mistake

00:05:38.400 of communication or something.

00:05:40.300 And I think they're missing the whole story,

00:05:42.140 which is the president is sort of playing the good cop.

00:05:47.020 You're not used to that, are you?

00:05:48.440 When was the last time that President Trump played good cop?

00:05:53.100 Right?

00:05:53.560 He usually plays bad cop.

00:05:55.240 But he's playing good cop.

00:05:56.860 You know, I feel good about this.

00:05:58.360 I'm no doctor.

00:05:59.240 I can't guarantee it, but I feel good about these pills.

00:06:03.380 And Dr. Fauci's playing bad cop.

00:06:06.220 Productively.

00:06:08.240 Productively.

00:06:09.280 If you said to me, Scott, you know, I'd really,

00:06:12.140 I'd be a lot happier if Fauci just agreed with the president

00:06:16.120 or, conversely, I'd be a lot happier

00:06:19.340 if the president just said exactly what Fauci said.

00:06:22.740 There was just no difference.

00:06:24.660 Would you?

00:06:26.400 Would you?

00:06:27.580 Would you be happier?

00:06:29.360 I wouldn't.

00:06:31.060 Because I think that they got their act exactly right.

00:06:34.840 You know, I doubt they talked about it and said,

00:06:36.820 you do this, I'll do that.

00:06:37.820 I don't think it's like that.

00:06:39.160 But I think it's just two smart people

00:06:41.380 who knew that they had a slightly different job.

00:06:46.120 So they did their slightly different jobs.

00:06:49.000 Did them well.

00:06:50.640 Fauci kept us from, you know, having a run on these things.

00:06:54.480 President Trump said there's reason to be optimistic.

00:06:57.760 I kind of like those dual messages, actually.

00:06:59.840 That works pretty well for me.

00:07:01.740 But, so here's the first thing.

00:07:02.960 When people say where it's going to go,

00:07:05.340 they kind of discount the fact

00:07:07.060 that if the early reports are right,

00:07:10.040 the pills are kind of a solution.

00:07:14.500 It's a way out.

00:07:15.800 Now you'd have to design your path out,

00:07:18.740 but it's the variable you need to complete the design.

00:07:23.060 Because right now, without the pills

00:07:25.440 and without the testing kits,

00:07:26.940 which is the other variable that people forget,

00:07:29.340 actually, the testing kits,

00:07:31.700 people act as if they exist.

00:07:33.240 And very smart people will say,

00:07:36.620 people, people,

00:07:38.580 I don't know what you're all missing here.

00:07:41.100 All we have to do is test like crazy,

00:07:44.080 and then we can all go back to work.

00:07:47.480 Yeah, with the non-existent tests.

00:07:51.840 Now, of course, they exist in great quantity,

00:07:54.020 but the quantities we need are even more vast

00:07:56.460 than the tremendous amount

00:07:58.200 that we've been able to put together so far.

00:08:00.340 So, yeah, there's nobody who has missed that trick.

00:08:06.700 If you're explaining to us

00:08:08.340 that we need to do massive testing,

00:08:10.640 I don't know what you're really telling me

00:08:13.060 because I think that's what every single person

00:08:15.260 in the world wants to do

00:08:16.620 if we add a massive number of tests.

00:08:19.700 And I'm pretty sure we're working pretty hard on that.

00:08:22.020 So, any analysis of where this is going

00:08:26.660 needs to mention those two things

00:08:29.760 that the pills will probably have,

00:08:32.660 I'm guessing, sooner.

00:08:34.640 How hard is it to print additional pills?

00:08:39.260 I'm guessing it's something you do pretty well.

00:08:41.960 I mean, it feels like you could, you know,

00:08:44.220 you just cranked those babies out like crazy, couldn't you?

00:08:47.100 So, if I had to guess,

00:08:49.780 we're going to get enough pills

00:08:51.600 way before we're going to get enough test kits.

00:08:55.920 So, I see it as sort of a two-phase thing,

00:08:59.000 which is phase one,

00:09:00.100 if we're happy that the pills work,

00:09:02.260 then we can say,

00:09:03.160 okay, if you're young and healthy and under 60,

00:09:05.820 under these conditions and in these places,

00:09:08.920 give it a shot.

00:09:10.180 Go back to work.

00:09:11.960 You know, and as soon as you get a symptom,

00:09:14.180 boom, go in and get a pill

00:09:15.580 because we have enough of them now.

00:09:16.880 So, that's phase one.

00:09:18.920 Phase two is the tests.

00:09:21.800 You have to have enough of them.

00:09:23.360 They have to be used in a statistically wise way,

00:09:27.060 which we can figure out.

00:09:28.080 And then, you can start to free up the over-60s 1.00

00:09:31.700 and the people at risk.

00:09:32.920 You know, you need the tests to get to that last level.

00:09:36.260 But you can rescue the economy

00:09:38.080 before you get as many tests as you need.

00:09:42.740 And this is what I think it would take.

00:09:46.100 I think it would take pop-up tents

00:09:48.480 staffed by, you know, nurses

00:09:51.020 and, you know, maybe retired medical workers

00:09:54.740 who know enough to put on a mask,

00:09:57.740 assuming we have enough,

00:09:59.240 and they know enough to, you know,

00:10:01.700 keep a distance from people,

00:10:03.660 and then make them drive up.

00:10:06.180 And this is just how I would do it.

00:10:08.080 And this is only because it's an emergency, right?

00:10:10.800 So, if it were not an emergency,

00:10:13.840 this would be way too reckless.

00:10:16.200 But all the rules are suspended

00:10:18.020 in favor of what makes sense at the moment.

00:10:21.840 So, we're not just going by the rule book

00:10:24.000 and now we're going by what works.

00:10:26.780 You know, what's my risk balance?

00:10:28.620 And that might make, you know,

00:10:30.020 it might be different at any moment.

00:10:32.000 So, here's what I can imagine.

00:10:34.000 A set of rules that would be something like this.

00:10:37.240 You feel like you've got a cough.

00:10:40.040 You drive immediately to one of these pop-up tents

00:10:42.980 that's ideally would be walking distance

00:10:45.400 from a major hospital

00:10:46.600 in case anything needs to be quickly identified

00:10:49.180 for escalation.

00:10:50.500 You're right there.

00:10:51.240 You drive up.

00:10:53.520 You get in line behind the other car

00:10:55.000 so you're not, you know,

00:10:56.400 you're not being contaminated

00:10:57.400 by someone who has it

00:10:59.560 and maybe you don't have it

00:11:01.080 so you're not standing near them.

00:11:02.920 You're in your car.

00:11:04.380 As the cars move up,

00:11:06.140 the medical professional says,

00:11:08.940 checklist.

00:11:10.860 Have you filled out the checklist

00:11:12.460 that we, you know,

00:11:14.160 that we put through a crack in your window

00:11:16.260 while you were waiting earlier

00:11:18.240 so you had time to fill it out?

00:11:20.560 And the checklist would be, you know,

00:11:22.220 prior medical history,

00:11:24.160 trying to find out

00:11:25.120 if there's any reason

00:11:26.080 these drugs would kill you.

00:11:28.080 Do you have any underlying conditions?

00:11:30.000 You know, what kind of symptoms

00:11:30.920 are we having?

00:11:32.020 And then when you get there,

00:11:34.040 maybe you don't even hand the paper

00:11:36.040 to anybody.

00:11:37.060 Maybe you just hold it up

00:11:38.380 to your closed window

00:11:39.320 and you say, you know,

00:11:41.240 here's my deal.

00:11:42.980 And if it's just a one-page checklist,

00:11:45.320 the medical professional

00:11:46.440 from six feet away says,

00:11:49.400 all right, looks, you know,

00:11:51.360 looks good.

00:11:52.120 You qualify.

00:11:53.680 We don't know if you have coronavirus.

00:11:56.220 But here's the important part

00:11:58.260 of the idea.

00:11:59.860 It doesn't matter

00:12:00.780 if you have enough of the meds

00:12:03.140 and they work.

00:12:04.880 And we have a good feeling

00:12:06.600 about them being safe enough

00:12:08.160 in short-term doses.

00:12:09.960 So then let's say

00:12:12.160 that you've held up your thing.

00:12:14.000 Your checklist looks good.

00:12:15.460 The medical professional

00:12:16.320 is six footed away

00:12:17.320 behind your glass window.

00:12:20.040 They don't know if you have it

00:12:21.120 or if you have seasonal flu.

00:12:23.060 It doesn't matter

00:12:24.040 because they have enough pills.

00:12:26.560 So everything depends

00:12:27.480 on having enough, right?

00:12:28.600 It's all about that.

00:12:29.980 And then you say,

00:12:30.620 okay, you qualified.

00:12:31.840 The checklist works.

00:12:33.220 Pop your trunk.

00:12:34.760 So without getting out of the car,

00:12:37.340 you pop your trunk.

00:12:38.640 They throw the pills in the back

00:12:41.420 with some instructions

00:12:42.280 and when to take them.

00:12:43.780 They close it with their elbow

00:12:45.020 and you're off.

00:12:47.000 No physical contact.

00:12:49.040 Not even a handoff contact.

00:12:51.440 Nothing changed places.

00:12:55.240 Somebody says,

00:12:56.120 no trunk?

00:12:58.220 I don't know why.

00:12:59.740 I mean, you can just throw it

00:13:00.660 in the back seat.

00:13:01.560 The point is,

00:13:02.980 you could do it easily

00:13:04.020 without any contact.

00:13:05.040 And then you can just

00:13:07.680 start cranking them out.

00:13:08.940 Now,

00:13:09.920 the big variable is,

00:13:11.720 is it safe enough?

00:13:12.920 Is it efficacious?

00:13:14.740 Is it,

00:13:16.060 will we have them

00:13:17.140 in large numbers?

00:13:18.400 And do we know

00:13:19.140 who it would

00:13:20.420 be dangerous for

00:13:22.140 exactly?

00:13:23.520 You know,

00:13:23.840 do we have enough?

00:13:24.840 So those are some big questions,

00:13:26.520 but they feel very solvable.

00:13:28.320 That's,

00:13:31.360 so,

00:13:31.940 you know,

00:13:32.720 the reason that I,

00:13:34.140 I try to draw the picture

00:13:36.260 this way

00:13:36.680 so you can actually

00:13:37.240 visualize it,

00:13:38.340 because I hope I drew

00:13:39.200 a picture

00:13:39.620 where you actually

00:13:40.700 imagine the cars in line,

00:13:42.340 you saw the pop-up tent,

00:13:43.620 you saw the professionals,

00:13:44.640 you saw the whole scene.

00:13:46.360 And the reason I do that

00:13:47.280 is that

00:13:47.720 if you have a problem

00:13:49.460 and you can't even

00:13:50.380 imagine how it could

00:13:51.740 be solved,

00:13:53.200 that's just the worst

00:13:54.160 kind of problem.

00:13:54.840 So whether that's

00:13:57.800 the solution

00:13:58.340 as I described

00:13:59.300 or it goes

00:13:59.840 some other path,

00:14:00.880 we're definitely

00:14:01.460 going to get to

00:14:01.940 the other side of it.

00:14:02.700 That's the only thing

00:14:03.300 that's beyond question.

00:14:04.760 We'll get to the other

00:14:05.560 side of it,

00:14:06.840 you know,

00:14:07.400 one way or the other.

00:14:09.260 But,

00:14:10.560 if you can imagine

00:14:12.700 this series,

00:14:13.980 it should make you

00:14:14.720 feel comfortable

00:14:15.420 because it's

00:14:16.800 pretty practical.

00:14:17.960 And then,

00:14:18.980 you know,

00:14:19.360 you do that,

00:14:20.280 get the economy

00:14:21.120 back to work

00:14:22.120 at,

00:14:22.700 you know,

00:14:23.040 75%,

00:14:24.120 and a few

00:14:25.840 months later

00:14:26.680 you've got enough

00:14:27.200 test kits

00:14:27.720 to start phasing

00:14:28.580 in the over 60s.

00:14:30.580 So that's how

00:14:31.140 I see it going down.

00:14:33.040 And that's all good.

00:14:34.460 I told you

00:14:35.280 to put some

00:14:37.000 questions

00:14:37.500 in my

00:14:38.300 Twitter feed

00:14:39.840 and so I'm going

00:14:40.700 to answer

00:14:41.000 some of these

00:14:41.580 questions.

00:14:44.900 Tesla P90D

00:14:46.440 says,

00:14:46.920 what would need

00:14:47.860 to happen

00:14:48.280 for quarantine

00:14:49.120 to end next week?

00:14:50.800 Well,

00:14:51.060 I don't know

00:14:51.380 if we're calling

00:14:51.840 it quarantine,

00:14:52.820 but I know

00:14:53.300 what you're

00:14:53.540 talking about.

00:14:55.780 What would

00:14:56.400 need to happen?

00:14:58.240 I don't think

00:14:59.080 there's any chance

00:14:59.980 it ends

00:15:00.860 as a complete

00:15:02.640 thing next week.

00:15:04.280 So I wouldn't

00:15:05.400 want to give you

00:15:05.940 any optimism

00:15:06.620 that next week

00:15:07.500 it's just all off.

00:15:08.600 Hey,

00:15:08.880 everything's back

00:15:09.460 to normal.

00:15:10.440 I'd say that's

00:15:10.920 a zero chance.

00:15:12.580 But,

00:15:13.300 I'd say there's

00:15:14.320 at least a 50%

00:15:15.780 chance

00:15:16.480 that in one week

00:15:18.320 the medical

00:15:19.060 profession

00:15:19.620 will say,

00:15:20.280 yeah,

00:15:21.420 we don't

00:15:21.840 have the

00:15:23.040 largest,

00:15:24.020 best,

00:15:25.180 longitudinal

00:15:25.860 studies in

00:15:26.920 the world

00:15:27.320 for these

00:15:27.760 meds,

00:15:28.800 but darn it,

00:15:29.780 we're seeing

00:15:30.320 such good

00:15:30.840 results,

00:15:31.460 we just have

00:15:32.140 to go with it.

00:15:32.720 It wouldn't

00:15:32.980 make sense

00:15:33.460 to hold off

00:15:34.220 at that point.

00:15:35.660 So,

00:15:37.060 then it's a

00:15:37.840 matter of

00:15:38.240 do you have

00:15:38.540 enough pills

00:15:39.000 and pop-up

00:15:39.740 tents or

00:15:40.360 whatever your

00:15:40.880 mechanism is

00:15:41.580 to get it

00:15:42.000 to people.

00:15:42.480 It doesn't

00:15:42.720 have to be

00:15:43.120 tents.

00:15:43.400 All right,

00:15:44.920 so I'd

00:15:46.340 say 50%

00:15:47.340 chance you'll

00:15:48.020 have really

00:15:49.200 good news

00:15:49.940 next week

00:15:50.640 on a path

00:15:52.500 out,

00:15:53.240 but really

00:15:54.000 bad news

00:15:54.840 about number

00:15:56.160 of people

00:15:56.520 infected.

00:15:57.120 That's just

00:15:57.420 going to keep

00:15:57.820 going up

00:15:58.280 for a while.

00:15:59.960 Let's see.

00:16:01.980 What do you

00:16:02.220 think contributed

00:16:02.820 to New York's

00:16:03.880 current situation

00:16:05.640 the most?

00:16:06.840 Well,

00:16:07.260 it's probably

00:16:07.560 not one thing.

00:16:09.020 It would be

00:16:09.760 density,

00:16:10.620 would be one.

00:16:11.600 It would be

00:16:12.100 a climate

00:16:12.760 where people

00:16:13.600 are still

00:16:14.100 kind of

00:16:14.580 indoors a

00:16:15.140 lot for

00:16:15.820 another.

00:16:17.280 It would

00:16:18.120 be more

00:16:19.400 international

00:16:20.120 travel than

00:16:21.100 maybe any

00:16:21.720 place else

00:16:22.200 in the

00:16:22.500 country.

00:16:23.620 It's a

00:16:24.460 large population,

00:16:26.280 crowded areas,

00:16:27.540 it's basically

00:16:28.020 everything.

00:16:29.360 Every possible

00:16:30.640 thing that you

00:16:31.240 could have

00:16:31.860 that would

00:16:32.700 make things

00:16:33.260 worse,

00:16:34.020 except elderly.

00:16:36.480 Right?

00:16:37.660 Now,

00:16:38.480 I'm talking

00:16:39.100 off the top

00:16:39.640 of my head,

00:16:40.380 but having

00:16:41.180 been to

00:16:42.040 mostly

00:16:43.380 Manhattan,

00:16:44.180 but been

00:16:44.700 to New

00:16:45.000 York lots

00:16:45.460 of times,

00:16:46.340 I'm often

00:16:47.320 struck by

00:16:48.040 how young

00:16:48.480 it is.

00:16:50.300 San Francisco

00:16:50.920 is similar.

00:16:52.800 So it

00:16:53.260 could be

00:16:53.860 that New

00:16:54.960 York will

00:16:55.660 have just

00:16:57.040 tons of

00:16:58.040 infections,

00:16:59.340 maybe because

00:17:00.080 they have

00:17:01.160 also the

00:17:01.880 first-class

00:17:02.380 hospitals,

00:17:03.640 and I

00:17:04.020 think a

00:17:04.560 lower

00:17:04.860 percentage

00:17:06.200 of elderly.

00:17:07.320 somebody

00:17:08.420 is saying

00:17:08.760 true in

00:17:09.200 the comments,

00:17:09.880 but I'd

00:17:11.520 have to

00:17:11.760 see a

00:17:12.080 source.

00:17:13.540 All

00:17:13.620 right,

00:17:14.560 Alvaro

00:17:15.360 says,

00:17:16.180 is Trump

00:17:17.520 going to

00:17:18.380 be re-elected?

00:17:19.940 Well,

00:17:20.200 I always

00:17:20.480 like to

00:17:20.880 express that

00:17:21.760 in a

00:17:22.280 if nothing

00:17:23.200 changed,

00:17:24.880 which is

00:17:25.320 ridiculous,

00:17:26.360 right?

00:17:27.220 Because

00:17:27.760 everything

00:17:28.080 will change.

00:17:28.720 Nobody

00:17:28.940 saw the

00:17:30.080 coronavirus

00:17:30.460 coming a

00:17:31.180 month ago,

00:17:31.960 but from

00:17:33.200 day one,

00:17:33.860 when people

00:17:34.240 have been

00:17:34.580 asking me

00:17:35.080 about

00:17:35.440 re-election,

00:17:36.440 I always

00:17:36.820 say,

00:17:37.800 if nothing

00:17:38.320 changes,

00:17:39.760 and of

00:17:40.180 course it

00:17:40.660 will.

00:17:41.940 So it's

00:17:42.320 sort of

00:17:42.560 useless to

00:17:43.200 have a

00:17:43.460 prediction

00:17:43.780 when you

00:17:44.120 know

00:17:44.240 everything's

00:17:44.680 going to

00:17:44.860 change and

00:17:45.420 it will

00:17:45.700 matter.

00:17:46.140 It's

00:17:46.240 going to

00:17:46.400 be big

00:17:46.700 stuff.

00:17:47.380 But if

00:17:48.580 you

00:17:48.800 straight-lined

00:17:49.380 it and

00:17:50.420 just said

00:17:50.920 what we

00:17:51.520 know today

00:17:52.100 is just

00:17:52.620 exactly the

00:17:53.500 only things

00:17:53.940 we'll know

00:17:54.420 on election

00:17:54.960 day,

00:17:55.720 you would

00:17:56.080 win in

00:17:56.440 a landslide.

00:17:57.900 It

00:17:58.180 wouldn't

00:17:58.380 even be

00:17:58.780 close.

00:18:00.160 That's

00:18:00.680 already,

00:18:01.320 and that's

00:18:01.640 before we

00:18:02.260 get any

00:18:03.620 kind of a

00:18:04.040 good result

00:18:04.580 with this.

00:18:05.080 By election

00:18:05.980 day we'll

00:18:06.560 certainly be

00:18:07.460 on top

00:18:07.860 of it.

00:18:08.580 So yeah,

00:18:09.040 I think

00:18:10.500 he'll just

00:18:10.900 might be

00:18:11.860 one of the

00:18:12.200 biggest,

00:18:12.560 it's possible

00:18:13.160 it will be

00:18:13.560 one of the

00:18:13.880 biggest

00:18:14.240 blowouts

00:18:15.540 in election

00:18:16.380 history.

00:18:16.940 It's possible.

00:18:18.540 I wouldn't

00:18:19.200 say that's

00:18:19.560 probable,

00:18:20.180 but it's

00:18:20.400 definitely

00:18:20.880 possible.

00:18:22.720 All right,

00:18:23.020 Marsha

00:18:23.380 asked me,

00:18:24.420 how do you

00:18:24.740 stay so

00:18:25.200 upbeat

00:18:25.540 during

00:18:26.280 turmoil?

00:18:30.260 Practice.

00:18:30.820 A lot

00:18:33.620 of it

00:18:33.880 is just

00:18:35.300 being able

00:18:35.840 to see

00:18:36.340 the field.

00:18:37.640 I talk

00:18:38.060 about this

00:18:38.600 almost too

00:18:39.980 much,

00:18:40.880 which is

00:18:41.460 the longer

00:18:42.340 you live,

00:18:43.060 the more

00:18:43.340 things you've

00:18:43.880 seen.

00:18:44.860 So I just

00:18:45.440 have a

00:18:45.960 larger

00:18:46.300 framework of

00:18:47.260 things I've

00:18:47.820 seen,

00:18:48.200 but on top

00:18:48.740 of that,

00:18:49.440 my actual

00:18:50.100 life experience

00:18:51.160 is really

00:18:52.440 varied,

00:18:53.340 from corporate

00:18:54.540 and economics,

00:18:55.720 art,

00:18:56.700 marketing,

00:18:57.960 branding,

00:18:59.140 persuasion,

00:19:00.060 communication.

00:19:01.460 So I'm not

00:19:02.500 world-class

00:19:04.100 at any of

00:19:04.640 that stuff,

00:19:05.600 but I've

00:19:06.240 done a lot

00:19:06.720 of it,

00:19:07.560 and I've

00:19:08.060 seen a lot

00:19:08.980 of it.

00:19:09.860 So when I

00:19:11.000 see our

00:19:11.380 current

00:19:11.620 situation,

00:19:13.880 it would

00:19:14.380 be,

00:19:15.300 how do I

00:19:15.780 say this

00:19:16.160 without making

00:19:16.800 me sound

00:19:17.200 like a

00:19:17.540 genius,

00:19:18.220 because there's

00:19:18.620 nothing like

00:19:19.100 that going

00:19:19.460 on,

00:19:20.300 it would

00:19:20.920 be like a 0.54

00:19:21.460 chess

00:19:21.760 player who's

00:19:23.060 experienced

00:19:23.800 versus a

00:19:25.240 brand-new

00:19:25.620 chess player.

00:19:26.500 So I can

00:19:27.100 just see a

00:19:28.080 few extra

00:19:28.640 moves,

00:19:29.720 because I've

00:19:30.620 studied economics

00:19:31.560 and a few

00:19:33.520 other things

00:19:34.060 that inform

00:19:34.780 my opinion.

00:19:36.260 So when

00:19:37.420 you can see

00:19:37.900 a few extra

00:19:38.540 moves,

00:19:39.180 and it looks

00:19:39.720 like there's

00:19:40.180 a path out,

00:19:41.680 and it's a

00:19:42.180 path out

00:19:42.680 certain,

00:19:44.220 this is a

00:19:45.020 weird problem,

00:19:46.140 because as

00:19:46.900 enormous as

00:19:47.760 it is,

00:19:48.940 our victory

00:19:50.140 over it is

00:19:50.820 actually not

00:19:51.380 in doubt.

00:19:52.920 And it's

00:19:53.480 hard to think

00:19:54.020 of any other

00:19:54.600 situation where

00:19:55.420 that would

00:19:55.780 be true.

00:19:56.860 Almost any

00:19:57.860 situation,

00:19:59.280 we say to

00:20:00.500 ourselves,

00:20:00.940 well, it's a

00:20:01.520 big problem,

00:20:02.140 we're going to

00:20:02.460 work on it,

00:20:03.060 and we just

00:20:03.920 don't know how

00:20:04.480 this is going

00:20:05.020 to turn out.

00:20:06.340 But this

00:20:06.900 virus is very

00:20:07.620 different.

00:20:08.420 We actually

00:20:09.060 know how it's

00:20:09.680 going to turn

00:20:10.060 out.

00:20:11.080 We win.

00:20:12.440 We don't

00:20:12.860 know how

00:20:13.140 long, we

00:20:14.040 don't know

00:20:14.320 what it'll

00:20:14.580 cost, but

00:20:15.180 we win.

00:20:17.280 So it helps

00:20:17.940 to know you

00:20:18.400 win, and it

00:20:19.540 helps to know

00:20:20.160 that there are

00:20:21.380 a number of

00:20:22.060 winnable paths.

00:20:22.960 beyond that,

00:20:25.640 part of my

00:20:26.460 technique, which

00:20:27.100 I've been

00:20:27.380 recommending all

00:20:28.060 week, is

00:20:29.160 that you

00:20:29.560 treat your

00:20:31.380 nerve management,

00:20:33.400 your own

00:20:34.020 sense of

00:20:35.040 anxiety, that

00:20:36.720 where you

00:20:37.460 used to think

00:20:38.260 that was also

00:20:39.240 important, it's

00:20:40.280 like, well, I

00:20:41.400 got a lot of

00:20:41.820 things I need

00:20:42.300 to do.

00:20:42.740 I've got to

00:20:43.060 work, take

00:20:43.940 care of my

00:20:44.320 family, whatever,

00:20:45.760 but I'd also

00:20:46.940 like to work

00:20:48.240 on relaxing,

00:20:49.400 so I'll spend

00:20:50.560 half an hour

00:20:51.080 exercising that

00:20:52.060 day.

00:20:53.080 That's not

00:20:53.700 what I'm

00:20:54.080 talking about

00:20:54.640 now.

00:20:55.700 This is a

00:20:56.700 major, worldwide

00:20:58.680 psychological

00:20:59.640 phenomenon.

00:21:01.360 If you have

00:21:01.980 the time, and

00:21:03.660 a lot of us

00:21:04.280 do, because

00:21:04.680 we're locked

00:21:05.100 down, if you

00:21:06.080 have the

00:21:06.380 time, your

00:21:08.100 full-time job

00:21:09.060 should be

00:21:09.400 taking care of

00:21:10.080 your own

00:21:10.440 mental state,

00:21:11.620 because we

00:21:12.240 need you at

00:21:12.720 your best, and

00:21:13.680 it's also how

00:21:14.340 you stay

00:21:14.640 healthy.

00:21:15.400 So your

00:21:15.840 immune system

00:21:17.560 will just be

00:21:18.080 better if you

00:21:18.880 keep your

00:21:19.220 attitude good,

00:21:19.980 and you're

00:21:20.380 working on

00:21:21.440 your stress

00:21:22.360 reduction, and

00:21:23.220 your fitness, and

00:21:23.960 everything, and

00:21:25.220 I've been saying

00:21:26.060 this for several

00:21:26.800 days now, and

00:21:27.560 it's actually

00:21:28.580 getting truer

00:21:29.460 every day.

00:21:31.460 I've never

00:21:32.240 been so

00:21:32.680 healthy.

00:21:33.600 I'm like

00:21:34.240 crazy healthy

00:21:34.900 right now.

00:21:36.180 I don't know

00:21:36.900 if you can

00:21:37.200 tell, because

00:21:38.580 I've had a

00:21:39.440 rough several

00:21:40.040 months, just

00:21:40.780 one little

00:21:41.560 nagging thing

00:21:42.240 after another,

00:21:42.900 nothing important,

00:21:44.300 but man, I

00:21:46.140 mean, I'm

00:21:46.520 exercising just

00:21:47.500 right, I'm

00:21:48.160 sleeping well,

00:21:49.000 I've gotten

00:21:50.080 rid of a

00:21:50.580 lot of

00:21:50.860 other

00:21:51.240 stresses in

00:21:51.960 my life, just

00:21:52.780 because life

00:21:53.500 simplified so

00:21:54.360 much, I

00:21:54.860 just have

00:21:55.820 less to do, and

00:21:57.560 I'm just

00:21:58.560 taking it like

00:21:59.120 it's my

00:21:59.480 full-time

00:21:59.920 job.

00:22:00.720 I talk to

00:22:01.500 you, I

00:22:01.900 do my

00:22:02.280 cartooning, but

00:22:03.660 other than

00:22:04.000 that, you

00:22:05.380 know, it's a

00:22:06.380 nice warm

00:22:06.960 shower, a

00:22:07.780 nice long

00:22:08.400 walk outside,

00:22:10.580 play with

00:22:11.000 the dog, it's

00:22:12.160 my full-time

00:22:12.780 job.

00:22:13.160 So if I

00:22:14.080 seem like I'm

00:22:15.800 handling the

00:22:16.340 stress well,

00:22:16.960 that's not a

00:22:18.860 genetic gift,

00:22:20.620 that's the

00:22:21.400 result of hard

00:22:22.180 work and a

00:22:24.120 strategy, and

00:22:25.640 working on it

00:22:26.460 literally every

00:22:27.260 day and

00:22:27.940 putting lots of

00:22:28.680 hours into it.

00:22:30.500 Somebody says

00:22:31.420 your polyps

00:22:32.500 sound worse.

00:22:39.280 Well, do

00:22:40.100 they?

00:22:40.560 Do my

00:22:40.900 polyps sound

00:22:41.900 worse.

00:22:43.600 I feel like I

00:22:45.080 sound a little

00:22:45.780 less nasally to

00:22:46.940 myself, but

00:22:47.760 you know, you

00:22:48.280 can never hear

00:22:48.820 yourself exactly.

00:22:52.220 So, what

00:22:54.060 was I

00:22:54.460 saying?

00:22:56.820 Oh, so in

00:22:57.660 terms of

00:22:58.180 relaxing, so

00:23:00.360 because this

00:23:04.160 might be a

00:23:04.680 little bit too

00:23:05.340 much behind the

00:23:06.380 curtain information,

00:23:07.940 but watch how

00:23:08.520 it doesn't

00:23:08.820 change anything.

00:23:09.480 because those

00:23:12.980 of you who are

00:23:13.480 regular viewers

00:23:14.320 of my

00:23:14.920 Periscope have

00:23:16.300 formed a

00:23:17.260 relationship with

00:23:18.820 me, and I

00:23:20.160 don't think that's

00:23:20.740 too strong a

00:23:21.600 word.

00:23:22.460 You know, I'm

00:23:25.020 always gagging

00:23:26.960 when people on

00:23:28.120 TV say, oh,

00:23:28.980 we're all a

00:23:29.400 family and stuff

00:23:30.140 like that, but I

00:23:31.820 think you would

00:23:32.680 agree there's

00:23:33.100 something about

00:23:33.540 this medium,

00:23:34.900 the live

00:23:35.440 streaming, and

00:23:36.260 especially the

00:23:36.800 way Periscope does

00:23:37.700 it, their

00:23:38.180 interface is just

00:23:39.880 tremendous, that

00:23:41.660 makes this

00:23:42.020 personal.

00:23:43.680 This feels like a

00:23:44.400 personal connection.

00:23:45.780 And because we

00:23:46.280 have a personal

00:23:46.840 connection, that

00:23:48.000 sets up what a

00:23:48.980 hypnotist would

00:23:49.780 describe as

00:23:51.320 pacing and

00:23:52.080 leading.

00:23:52.520 You've heard me

00:23:53.060 talk about this

00:23:53.700 before.

00:23:54.700 So because you've

00:23:55.760 paced me, meaning

00:23:57.900 that you've done

00:24:00.260 the simultaneous

00:24:01.020 hip, you've done

00:24:02.100 what I did, you

00:24:03.080 meet me here in

00:24:04.040 the morning, 7 a.m.

00:24:05.740 my time, whatever

00:24:06.560 your time, and

00:24:07.780 because it's part

00:24:08.380 of your routine, we

00:24:09.400 formed a connection

00:24:11.040 as if by an

00:24:11.940 invisible string.

00:24:13.860 When you pull, I

00:24:15.120 go, and you're

00:24:16.780 pulling as well as

00:24:17.500 I'm pulling, because

00:24:18.620 I'm reading your

00:24:19.260 comments and

00:24:19.860 responding to them

00:24:20.780 in real time, and

00:24:21.420 you can feel it.

00:24:22.480 You can feel a

00:24:23.840 commenter will pull

00:24:24.740 me, and I'll go,

00:24:26.020 and then I'll pull

00:24:27.060 you, and then

00:24:28.040 you'll pull me.

00:24:28.780 We're just

00:24:29.080 connected by this

00:24:29.800 invisible string.

00:24:31.560 And because of

00:24:32.120 that, that created

00:24:34.380 an opportunity

00:24:36.420 that I could

00:24:38.360 relax myself, and

00:24:41.020 it would relax

00:24:41.760 all of you.

00:24:43.400 And that was

00:24:44.020 actually a

00:24:44.800 conscious part of

00:24:45.680 my strategy.

00:24:46.580 Now, of course, I

00:24:47.080 would have done it

00:24:47.540 for myself under

00:24:48.360 any circumstances,

00:24:51.060 but I realized

00:24:53.260 consciously that

00:24:55.340 because of this

00:24:56.000 connection we

00:24:56.680 had formed, the

00:24:58.080 more relaxed I

00:25:00.440 am, the more

00:25:02.360 you will automatically

00:25:03.380 be relaxed, you

00:25:04.600 know, almost

00:25:05.060 independent of what

00:25:06.020 I say about

00:25:06.560 things, as long

00:25:07.240 as I don't, you

00:25:08.300 know, whip you 0.60

00:25:08.740 up into a

00:25:09.220 frenzy.

00:25:09.880 So, it's all very

00:25:10.920 intentional, and I,

00:25:12.360 and, you know, I'm

00:25:14.560 not trying to hide

00:25:15.180 anything.

00:25:15.500 I am trying to pace

00:25:17.700 you and lead you to

00:25:19.420 relaxation, and I

00:25:22.960 hope that I'm doing

00:25:23.580 that.

00:25:24.280 So, let's look at

00:25:25.400 some more questions.

00:25:29.560 Are you using, let's

00:25:31.160 say, Simon says, are

00:25:32.480 you using your same

00:25:33.320 movie-slash-story-slash-

00:25:34.760 narrative framework?

00:25:36.380 You know what I

00:25:37.020 mean, says Simon, for

00:25:39.380 understanding coronavirus

00:25:40.580 and how humanity

00:25:41.980 responds.

00:25:43.460 Well, so, for those of

00:25:44.820 you who don't know

00:25:45.160 what that question

00:25:45.740 means, I'll give you a

00:25:46.460 little framework.

00:25:48.180 I've often said that

00:25:49.620 for reasons I can't

00:25:50.760 explain, and it's

00:25:52.460 entirely, most likely

00:25:54.100 confirmation bias, so

00:25:55.800 there's a little bit

00:25:56.360 of sort of an

00:25:56.900 illusion about this, or

00:25:59.000 maybe not.

00:25:59.600 if we're a

00:26:00.640 simulation, maybe it's

00:26:01.740 not a coincidence, but

00:26:02.860 here's the concept, that

00:26:04.920 real life, at least the

00:26:06.680 public stuff, the, you

00:26:08.160 know, things we watch

00:26:08.960 like elections and stuff

00:26:10.220 like that, conform to

00:26:12.300 the three acts of a

00:26:13.780 movie.

00:26:14.920 So often that it's hard

00:26:19.020 to explain how it

00:26:20.000 happens on its own,

00:26:21.460 unless, of course, it's

00:26:22.560 just selective memory and

00:26:24.160 confirmation bias.

00:26:25.660 So there are lots of

00:26:26.280 reasons I can imagine it's

00:26:27.520 happening, but if you

00:26:28.860 were to somehow

00:26:29.520 scientifically measure it,

00:26:31.660 you know, you wouldn't

00:26:32.100 be able to find it.

00:26:34.900 But with Trump, early on

00:26:39.860 in the process, I

00:26:41.080 predicted, because I'd

00:26:43.000 seen this pattern so many

00:26:44.040 times in life, I

00:26:44.900 predicted that it was

00:26:45.920 starting to shape up like

00:26:47.780 a movie.

00:26:48.460 And the way you know it's

00:26:49.260 a movie is that it has

00:26:50.100 three acts, and there's

00:26:51.500 something special about

00:26:52.660 the third act.

00:26:54.200 And the third act, as

00:26:55.520 they call it in script

00:26:56.780 writing, is where the

00:26:58.440 hero is in so much

00:26:59.660 trouble, it's impossible

00:27:01.020 to get out.

00:27:02.360 And you, the viewer, are

00:27:03.700 watching the movie, and

00:27:04.460 you go, well, I don't

00:27:06.040 know, this is going to

00:27:06.700 take some fancy script

00:27:08.120 writing, because there's

00:27:09.620 just no way the hero can

00:27:10.980 get out of this mess.

00:27:12.440 And then it happens, and

00:27:13.900 that's what makes it a

00:27:14.640 movie.

00:27:15.460 So when President Trump

00:27:16.840 was running, I had said,

00:27:18.040 there's going to be a

00:27:18.740 third act, and it's going

00:27:20.960 to look like it's

00:27:21.580 impossible.

00:27:23.000 And then somehow, he'll

00:27:25.600 win anyway.

00:27:27.380 And, you know, you could

00:27:28.860 argue what was the third

00:27:30.100 act, you know, the, in

00:27:33.020 the summer before the

00:27:34.120 election, the Democrats

00:27:37.020 and Hillary Clinton 0.90

00:27:37.940 started saying, it's dark,

00:27:39.180 it's dark.

00:27:40.040 And it looked like he was

00:27:41.420 just going to be branded

00:27:42.240 as racist, and he made

00:27:43.580 fun of the, you know, the

00:27:45.860 Gold Star family, and he

00:27:47.120 just thought, all right,

00:27:47.940 there's, this is the third

00:27:49.520 act.

00:27:49.860 It can't get worse than

00:27:51.940 this.

00:27:53.460 And then, the Access

00:27:55.500 Hollywood tape came out.

00:27:58.040 And I said to myself,

00:28:00.100 darn it, I got fooled.

00:28:01.500 Because I've been telling

00:28:02.380 people also, that a good

00:28:04.400 movie has fake third acts.

00:28:07.180 Things that you think are

00:28:08.500 shaping up to be impossible

00:28:10.160 to solve, but then your

00:28:12.000 hero solves them.

00:28:13.760 You know, it's not until

00:28:14.720 you get to the real third

00:28:16.280 act that it's really looking

00:28:17.740 insolvable.

00:28:18.300 And that, of course, was

00:28:19.580 the Access Hollywood tape.

00:28:21.300 And I remember the day I

00:28:22.380 heard that, I just thought,

00:28:23.980 oh, no.

00:28:25.740 I'm watching this movie, and

00:28:28.120 there's no way anybody,

00:28:31.740 anybody could recover from

00:28:33.920 that.

00:28:36.120 But, a few days later, I

00:28:39.380 don't know why, but my

00:28:40.360 confidence returned, and I

00:28:41.940 said to myself, you know, I

00:28:44.420 actually think he is going to

00:28:46.020 beat that.

00:28:47.140 I think the movie is going

00:28:48.600 to be a movie, a proper

00:28:50.580 movie.

00:28:51.520 And I feel like I was the

00:28:52.960 narrator of the movie, at

00:28:54.360 least for some people who

00:28:55.640 were watching me at that

00:28:56.420 time.

00:28:57.340 So, back to your question.

00:28:59.980 Is the coronavirus taking a

00:29:03.040 three-act structure?

00:29:04.480 And I don't know what you

00:29:08.900 would identify as the third

00:29:10.820 act, because most of it's

00:29:12.740 been a little bit

00:29:13.560 predictable, I would say.

00:29:15.480 In other words, smart people

00:29:16.960 were saying early on, this is

00:29:19.000 the way it's going to go, and

00:29:20.180 then it's sort of just, it's

00:29:21.660 going just that way.

00:29:23.120 You know, you could argue

00:29:23.900 about the pace and the scope

00:29:26.160 of it, but it's basically going

00:29:27.400 the way smart people said it

00:29:28.620 would go.

00:29:28.940 So, if it were a movie, there

00:29:32.200 would be, still ahead of us,

00:29:35.040 maybe in the summer, there

00:29:38.460 would be something that made

00:29:41.040 it look unsolvable.

00:29:43.900 And I don't know that we're

00:29:45.520 going to hit that, because if

00:29:47.540 you ask me, everything does

00:29:48.980 look solvable, and we can sort

00:29:50.720 of see it from pretty far away.

00:29:52.520 So it would be a crappy movie if

00:29:54.920 you could see how the movie was

00:29:56.260 going to resolve itself from,

00:29:58.440 you know, six months away, and

00:30:00.280 that would do it.

00:30:01.380 So, I love the question, by

00:30:02.800 the way, and I had been

00:30:03.700 thinking about it in those

00:30:05.360 terms, but it's not shaping up

00:30:09.920 like a movie.

00:30:12.840 Favorite NBA player growing up?

00:30:15.340 What a random question, which

00:30:16.760 I'll answer.

00:30:19.940 Walt Frazier on the Knicks, and

00:30:23.580 Larry Bird.

00:30:24.640 I was just watching a, I was

00:30:27.660 just watching an old, I don't

00:30:29.180 know, some YouTube clips of

00:30:30.440 Larry Bird.

00:30:31.700 Have you ever watched Larry

00:30:34.140 Bird play basketball? 0.93

00:30:35.500 I'm not even, like, some big

00:30:37.160 basketball fan, but, oh my

00:30:40.280 goodness, it was like, not even

00:30:43.300 possible, the things he did.

00:30:44.900 I mean, I guess you could say,

00:30:46.700 you know, Michael Jordan was

00:30:48.000 similar, but Jordan looked like

00:30:50.540 he had monstrous talent.

00:30:52.640 You know, in the whole game of

00:30:56.260 basketball, there's monstrous

00:30:57.400 talent, and you could, and it

00:30:58.740 just looked like talent.

00:31:00.260 But when Larry Bird played, and I

00:31:01.960 was watching just tons of old

00:31:03.500 clips, and it's just jaw-dropping,

00:31:06.120 because it doesn't even look like

00:31:07.660 talent, it looks like magic.

00:31:09.940 You know, I guess that's why

00:31:11.500 Magic Johnson got his nickname,

00:31:15.000 because his plays look like magic.

00:31:17.080 But you really get that sense when

00:31:18.720 you watch Larry Bird.

00:31:19.460 All right, have you ever met Gary

00:31:21.160 Larson?

00:31:21.580 I have not.

00:31:22.800 I, of course, know people who have

00:31:24.600 met Gary Larson, and you may have,

00:31:29.360 I don't know if you know it, but

00:31:30.580 there might be some news about

00:31:32.180 Gary Larson.

00:31:33.520 Might be some news about, you could

00:31:36.120 be seeing a little bit more of his

00:31:37.400 stuff.

00:31:38.040 I don't know the details, but there's

00:31:39.640 some motion in that direction.

00:31:44.040 Somebody says, Nico says, if you get a

00:31:47.380 mild case of COVID and recover, are you

00:31:49.820 immune?

00:31:51.000 I will tell you my non-scientific answer,

00:31:54.220 subject to fact-checking.

00:31:56.680 The answer is, maybe, kind of.

00:32:00.880 So here's the best I can determine.

00:32:02.840 I've been looking for that answer

00:32:04.160 myself, and asking it, and looking at

00:32:06.540 different people's answers, and I don't

00:32:08.440 know if I've ever talked to, you know,

00:32:10.240 I don't know if I've asked the right

00:32:13.140 expert about this, but here's my best

00:32:15.960 understanding, that you do get some

00:32:19.080 immunity, but it's not permanent.

00:32:22.260 In other words, you know, a couple years

00:32:23.940 later, if you were not re-exposed to it,

00:32:26.820 it might bite you again, and by then

00:32:29.340 maybe it's morphed a little or evolved a

00:32:31.780 little, so it's slightly different.

00:32:33.400 I don't know.

00:32:33.920 I don't know the details.

00:32:35.220 So you should ignore anything I say on

00:32:37.240 this topic, but my understanding, subject

00:32:41.080 to somebody-please-fix-it, is that you

00:32:44.080 do get immunity, but it might not be

00:32:46.920 forever.

00:32:50.480 Let's see.

00:32:54.360 All these masks and respirators, it's

00:32:56.540 all based on demand, cases in the

00:32:57.900 future.

00:32:58.280 Will we need that many?

00:32:59.760 I don't see it happening.

00:33:01.240 The vast majority of people who get

00:33:02.800 infected recover.

00:33:04.480 Well, I've seen, anecdotally, I've

00:33:07.020 seen some reports from, in fact, I may

00:33:12.200 have tweeted it.

00:33:14.080 I'm not sure if I did, or I just read

00:33:15.580 it, but there is a doctor who goes

00:33:18.340 through the math of it, and the thing

00:33:20.160 we don't understand is how often they

00:33:23.500 need to change them, because if you're

00:33:25.740 dealing with one infected person, you

00:33:27.920 need one set of protective equipment and

00:33:30.080 masks and gloves, but as soon as you're

00:33:32.220 done, you have to toss that stuff, or 0.73

00:33:35.800 whatever you do with it, but you can't

00:33:37.160 wear it a second time if you're doing

00:33:39.320 things properly.

00:33:40.700 So apparently the number of masks and

00:33:43.620 gowns and stuff that they go through is

00:33:46.020 just incredible.

00:33:48.580 We're talking about tens of thousands of

00:33:50.760 them per one hospital in a very short

00:33:53.840 amount of time.

00:33:54.580 Tens of thousands.

00:33:56.360 Tens of thousands of masks in one

00:33:59.340 hospital in a fairly short amount of time.

00:34:01.580 I don't know if that's, you know, a week

00:34:04.280 or a month or whatever, but it's tens of

00:34:05.860 thousands.

00:34:06.320 So, you know, you get the big numbers

00:34:07.800 really quickly, because that's just one

00:34:09.600 hospital.

00:34:12.400 Taylor says, is this the black swan event

00:34:15.080 for blockchain crypto Bitcoin?

00:34:17.380 You know, it feels like crypto has to prove

00:34:27.200 itself, and maybe that's what you're

00:34:29.220 asking.

00:34:30.100 I feel as though if Bitcoin had gone up

00:34:33.900 when the market went down, I would have

00:34:37.900 said, you should never again not own

00:34:39.940 Bitcoin.

00:34:42.280 If it's the last thing you do, make sure

00:34:44.880 you get a little bit of money in Bitcoin

00:34:46.560 if it had done that.

00:34:47.880 But in fact, it did the opposite, and it

00:34:49.660 tracked the market.

00:34:51.060 So, why do I need something that tracks

00:34:54.000 the market?

00:34:55.400 You know, unless I want to, I don't know,

00:34:57.300 hide something, or, you know, I find

00:34:59.140 some other advantage of crypto, but it

00:35:02.160 did not perform as an asset class in a

00:35:05.540 way that you would want it to.

00:35:09.520 Let's see.

00:35:10.680 We've got a lot of questions there.

00:35:12.080 I probably won't be able to get to all

00:35:13.240 these. Estimate the time of return to

00:35:15.720 normal, if ever.

00:35:17.200 That will be a phased return.

00:35:22.440 And if I know human beings, by election

00:35:27.520 day, we're going to want to have it kind

00:35:29.640 of wrapped up, if you know what I mean.

00:35:32.320 So, you have to assume that the

00:35:33.840 administration, being, you know, human

00:35:35.840 animals who want to win elections, as

00:35:38.600 well as help the country recover, you

00:35:41.180 know, that it's not inappropriate for

00:35:45.060 political people to act politically in a

00:35:47.340 political season.

00:35:48.440 You know, they're doing an okay job, I

00:35:52.560 would say, of keeping the politics down to

00:35:55.940 an annoying, you know, kind of acceptable,

00:36:00.260 annoying level.

00:36:00.940 But, you know, if we start getting, let's

00:36:06.060 say, 70% control on it, as if you could

00:36:09.440 measure it that way, if we start getting

00:36:11.120 like 70% control on it over the summer,

00:36:15.020 there's going to be all kinds of push to

00:36:18.300 get it done before election day.

00:36:20.380 Now, the excuse, of course, will be so

00:36:22.580 everybody can be safe to vote.

00:36:24.440 But, of course, the president would have,

00:36:26.480 you know, a second benefit from that that

00:36:29.000 you can't really ignore.

00:36:31.800 So, to answer your question, I would

00:36:33.720 expect, based, it bases, entirely based on

00:36:38.720 what the medical profession says about

00:36:40.480 the efficacy and availability of the

00:36:43.620 meds.

00:36:44.900 If you get a good answer about those in

00:36:47.340 the next week or two, I think you see

00:36:49.960 people start going to back, back to work

00:36:52.380 in the third week, if they're young and

00:36:54.900 depending on where they're going, then

00:36:57.200 lots of accommodations, and somewhere

00:36:59.960 around Christmas time, things looking

00:37:04.600 kind of normal, but on our guard because

00:37:07.740 it could flare up again in the winter.

00:37:10.040 So, that's my best guess.

00:37:11.660 So, I'll say that again.

00:37:13.880 Serious returning to week to work in

00:37:17.240 three to four weeks, based on the pills

00:37:21.020 being good, that's the big assumption

00:37:22.420 there, but not over 60 is necessarily

00:37:26.400 right away, and we'll phase them in by

00:37:28.640 election day-ish.

00:37:31.000 That's just a prediction, by the way.

00:37:33.360 So, and I think nobody will go without

00:37:36.880 food, and we will recover fairly quickly.

00:37:41.160 Actually, impressively is my guess.

00:37:42.980 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 22, 2020

Episode 864 Scott Adams： Pls I've Thoughts Before Bedtime While Self-Swaddling In a Warm Blanket

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