Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 866 Scott Adams： Wrapped in a Blanket and Answering Your Questions

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:11.980 It's time for Swaddled in a Cloth Blanket with Scott.

00:00:19.640 You know, I just realized that the best time to do this in the evening,

00:00:22.760 if I'm going to be doing two furs for the remainder of the coronavirus crisis,

00:00:27.200 this is, I should do them at the same time a.m. as p.m., 7 a.m., 7 p.m. on the East Coast.

00:00:36.160 That's 10 and, I'm sorry, on the West Coast.

00:00:38.720 On the East Coast, that's 10 and 10.

00:00:41.040 So I don't know if I'll actually do that, but maybe I will.

00:00:45.000 So how's everybody doing? Doing okay? In your isolation?

00:00:50.140 I'm getting a little bit squirrely, not going to lie.

00:00:54.140 I, the only people I've talked to who are not on video, seem to be my dog and my cat.

00:01:01.060 Who, as it turns out, are brilliant conversationalists, so not nearly as bad as you thought.

00:01:07.180 All right. Don't complain what's on Fox News counter-programming me.

00:01:14.180 There's always going to be something on there.

00:01:15.940 All right. So I've got some questions slash assignments for you.

00:01:22.660 Meaning, if anybody knows the answer to this question, it would be really, really good to tell me.

00:01:29.900 Or tell the world, I suppose.

00:01:31.920 And the first question is this.

00:01:33.360 We've got good feelings about this hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.

00:01:42.780 So much so that Governor Cuomo is going to be testing some starting Tuesday.

00:01:47.720 So they'll start a test in New York on that drug.

00:01:52.700 Now here's the question.

00:01:54.920 My understanding is we probably don't have enough of it if it turns out to be as good as we think.

00:02:00.040 Like, that feels safe to say.

00:02:02.960 But is the bottleneck in the raw materials, you know, is there a certain chemical or chemicals that have to be mixed together to make this thing?

00:02:13.400 Is it the raw materials that are lacking?

00:02:18.160 Or is it the actual construction of the pill and then the shipping of it?

00:02:23.580 So I'd like to know the answer to that.

00:02:25.240 Because there's a really interesting idea floating around that I don't want to tell you because people are working on it.

00:02:35.200 But, you know, it's just not my business to get you excited about it.

00:02:39.300 But if you can tell me if the bottleneck is in the materials or the actual construction of the pill, I might have something interesting to tell you.

00:02:46.800 All right.

00:02:48.520 Your second assignment is a question was asked on Twitter that I don't know the answer to.

00:02:57.540 And so that's what I'll ask you for.

00:02:59.380 If you can find an expert to tweet at me and just answer this question.

00:03:05.680 It was a very interesting question.

00:03:07.120 And it was if we know how long the coronavirus can last on different types of surfaces, and it's whatever number of days, depending on the surface, why can't we just take the N95 masks after using them once, stick them in a paper bag, put it on the shelf, and then just use it again in a week?

00:03:30.040 Because wouldn't everything that could be on it just die?

00:03:35.620 Because it's dry.

00:03:37.400 You know, presumably it would be dry fairly quickly.

00:03:39.560 And nothing can live a week.

00:03:42.060 And there's nothing that would degrade in the composition of the mask.

00:03:45.840 So that was the question.

00:03:47.960 Please do not take that as a statement of some kind of quackery coming from the cartoonist guy.

00:03:53.600 I don't have an independent opinion of whether that's a good or a bad idea.

00:03:58.020 I will say this.

00:04:00.820 I did talk to somebody who directly knows very well somebody who's in the business.

00:04:08.920 So there's somebody who's in the business and making these masks at this moment.

00:04:14.320 And this is what the person who's making the masks, who has some scientific and engineering background, to make this statement.

00:04:23.080 And this is an exact quote.

00:04:25.180 So I got back this quote.

00:04:27.240 Now again, do not take this as my opinion and do not take this as true.

00:04:33.380 It's a question.

00:04:35.300 You know, if there's somebody who could add something to this, does this make sense?

00:04:39.160 Is it crazy?

00:04:39.740 So this is what is the response back from somebody who does know what they're talking about.

00:04:46.020 Quote, I would not recommend reusing disposable gloves.

00:04:50.740 So that's important, right?

00:04:52.640 Don't try to reuse disposable gloves.

00:04:55.960 They're high contact surfaces.

00:04:58.460 But certainly face shields and masks can be reused.

00:05:01.960 This is somebody else's opinion.

00:05:03.360 After spraying them or wiping them down on both inside and outside surfaces with a disinfectant and allowing them to dry.

00:05:12.160 The exception would be if you know you came in contact with a confirmed case, maybe you want to throw that one away.

00:05:20.520 But if you might see several customers that, you know, or patients that are not confirmed, this one individual subject to your fact-checking and getting confirming or debunking opinions seems to think this would work.

00:05:36.720 Now the question I asked is, well, if disinfectant is also in short supply, what's wrong with the first idea of just letting it age a week?

00:05:47.960 Now you'd have to wait longer.

00:05:49.780 I imagine, you know, just spraying them with disinfectant and then allowing them to dry.

00:05:55.500 Yeah, does that kill everything?

00:05:57.780 I don't know.

00:05:58.740 But it seems like waiting a week would.

00:06:02.060 Right?

00:06:03.300 You know, is there any...

00:06:04.200 I mean, you can just add days until you're happy it's 100% effective.

00:06:08.160 Is it two weeks?

00:06:09.260 I mean, we're still going to be in trouble in two weeks, so that would be better than nothing.

00:06:13.140 Someone else asked this sort of a follow-up question on the same topic.

00:06:20.320 The coronavirus becomes deactivated at a certain temperature.

00:06:26.100 Somebody's saying 120 degrees.

00:06:28.480 I've heard 133.

00:06:31.100 But somewhere in that range, 120, 133 degrees, the virus breaks down.

00:06:36.660 But can you heat the masks to that temperature without degrading the mask?

00:06:45.940 And one person, and I don't know what background they have.

00:06:50.240 I'm just going to say that the question is out there.

00:06:52.740 So this is not a statement.

00:06:54.620 It's still in the form of a question.

00:06:56.120 And somebody says that they would maintain 95% efficacy if you heated them to 160,

00:07:05.060 and the hospital laundry dryers will reach that temperature.

00:07:10.820 So I have a hard time believing it would be that easy.

00:07:15.820 Don't you?

00:07:17.140 I mean, if you could just throw them in the dryer and, you know,

00:07:20.580 run them for 10 minutes on the heat cycle and they're all sterilized.

00:07:24.440 But they're, you know, just because it went through the dryer,

00:07:28.260 it might be a little less, no, I guess, no, you're saying still 95%.

00:07:34.040 So that would be the same as it was.

00:07:36.380 So could it really be that easy?

00:07:38.340 That doesn't sound right.

00:07:39.980 You know, so without the benefit of any scientific insight into this question,

00:07:46.560 it feels a little too easy, doesn't it?

00:07:48.660 Well, you just throw them in the dryer, problem solved.

00:07:51.200 You know, you'll be good to go in 15 minutes.

00:07:53.340 That just doesn't sound right.

00:07:55.540 But I'd like you to see an expert opinion on that.

00:08:00.600 So those are the three situations.

00:08:03.300 One is heat.

00:08:04.460 One is using a disinfectant and just waiting until they dry.

00:08:08.520 And, oh, and by the way, this is not assumed to work on every type of mask.

00:08:13.220 So the other caveat I should have said is that it would sort of depend on the mask,

00:08:18.660 and I don't know exactly if we can tell which are the ones that it works on.

00:08:22.240 But there's some thinking it would depend on the mask.

00:08:24.680 So there's that.

00:08:29.600 There is a website now that brands itself as a medical equipment clearinghouse.

00:08:37.040 Because if you saw the experts talking, you know that one of the big problems is there are plenty of people volunteering to make stuff,

00:08:45.060 but there are also plenty of frauds and middlemen trying to, you know, price gouge, and you've got to weed them out.

00:08:51.440 And then you've got people who want to buy them.

00:08:54.160 So you've got lots of buyers.

00:08:56.040 You've got lots of people who said, you know, if I can find a buyer, I'll whip up a factory and start making them tomorrow.

00:09:01.560 So you need to match them.

00:09:04.440 So allegedly, and here's my assumption.

00:09:07.980 So when the need became obvious to a lot of people that there needed to be some kind of a website so people can find, you know,

00:09:16.700 the sources and the buyers can find each other, I'm sure that more than one entity just got busy and built one.

00:09:25.160 So I don't know that this is the one, but it's the one that I know of.

00:09:30.340 So if there's another one out there, tweet at me if there's some competing one that does the same thing.

00:09:35.760 And the website, the URL is projectn95, as in a N95 mask.

00:09:43.660 Projectn95.com.

00:09:45.900 So check that out.

00:09:47.440 So if you think you can make something and you're looking for a buyer, I guess that's the place to try to make a connection.

00:09:54.980 All right.

00:09:55.220 I see somebody asking about UV light, and we see this question all over.

00:10:01.960 I'm going to guess, based on just a little bit of skimming I did on the topic, that there may be some specific cases where UV light is better than nothing.

00:10:12.440 But I don't know that we could get enough of them and that they're the right thing for these particular uses.

00:10:18.600 You know, do they penetrate surfaces?

00:10:20.220 What if there are different conditions?

00:10:24.260 So while I believe it is well known that the UV light kills virus, what is unknown to me is if there are certain situations where using it makes sense and then others where it just doesn't make sense.

00:10:37.000 So I wouldn't know enough about that.

00:10:42.660 Just looking at your...

00:10:50.000 Yeah, a lot of people have volunteered to make masks.

00:10:52.440 All right.

00:10:52.820 So I'm going to look at some of my questions that came to me on Twitter.

00:10:55.880 Robert Barnes says, what if the black swan event, for those of you who don't know that term, black swan event is the once every hundred years or the most unexpected thing.

00:11:11.000 And it's big and it changes everything.

00:11:12.980 So that's called the black swan.

00:11:14.540 And what if the black swan event is the panic from the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself?

00:11:23.000 Well, I'm not sure I've seen something I would call panic.

00:11:28.320 Yeah, I suppose that's a matter of definition.

00:11:31.080 But I've seen people taking care of their families.

00:11:35.180 I've seen people hoarding.

00:11:37.960 But, you know, mostly people acting rationally and just want to get through it.

00:11:43.280 So certainly people's nerves are frayed, etc.

00:11:46.800 But it's not really panic, panic.

00:11:49.600 You know, this isn't that kind of panic.

00:11:51.860 So, you know, I guess the question would be whether closing down the economy is the real question.

00:11:59.220 Not the state of mind, but rather the, you know, what do you do about it?

00:12:04.800 And I'll say it again.

00:12:06.140 The most likely outcome is that things get darker and darker until it looks like,

00:12:11.780 my God, we can't go one more day without opening up.

00:12:15.140 And if by then we have more tests or more drugs that work, we'll make the decision to open up.

00:12:21.940 So I don't think there's much risk that there's some point of no return for the economy.

00:12:26.640 And you'll go past it.

00:12:29.300 I don't think that's a thing.

00:12:31.300 Because we would be so, it would be so obvious that we're at that point that some adult decision would be made,

00:12:39.780 which is, all right, some of you, maybe only the ones who are young,

00:12:44.060 maybe only the ones who have already had it and recovered,

00:12:46.560 maybe only the ones who have good meds that work, assuming they do work.

00:12:54.360 But you're going to see some kind of a surge in returns well before the economy breaks.

00:13:02.180 Somebody says, more movie recommendations, please.

00:13:05.200 Yeah.

00:13:05.320 You know, I'm not a movie guy and I've only watched one movie this year

00:13:12.440 because movies are no longer a form that I enjoy.

00:13:16.220 They're just too long and they're self-congratulatory and, you know, all the years.

00:13:22.820 It's just not a good art form anymore.

00:13:25.300 It sort of ruined itself.

00:13:26.300 But, if you want to laugh, go to YouTube and start looking for stand-up comedians that are to your liking.

00:13:35.900 You might have to, you know, knock around a little bit.

00:13:39.000 But, depending on how dark your humor is, you can laugh for a long time.

00:13:44.600 So, Bill Burr is good.

00:13:45.880 I was just watching Norm MacDonald.

00:13:48.500 He's great.

00:13:51.360 You know, just go Google around some stand-up comedians.

00:13:55.060 You'll get just tons of stuff and it's terrific.

00:13:59.140 When is America going back to work? 1.00

00:14:01.620 Well, I think we will know a lot in two weeks.

00:14:05.720 So, the New York trial of the hydrochloroquine, I think, personally, that is my, that's the main variable I'm tracking.

00:14:17.680 Now, let me give you some variables to track for your own predictive abilities, all right?

00:14:25.060 Because, remember, somebody's saying, Giselnik, he's very dark but very funny.

00:14:32.040 Dave Chappelle, of course.

00:14:33.840 Jim Gaffigan.

00:14:35.140 Jim Gaffigan's just the funniest person ever.

00:14:38.260 So, you see some good recommendations going by on the comments.

00:14:46.240 What was I talking about?

00:14:49.540 I don't know.

00:14:50.240 So, yeah, it's all, oh, here's the things you should look for.

00:14:57.600 These are sort of the dogs that don't bark sort of thing.

00:15:00.860 We're going to be focused on whatever shiny object the news is pointing us to in social media.

00:15:05.880 But let me point to you something that you haven't heard.

00:15:09.840 Are you ready?

00:15:10.300 Track the number of frontline healthcare workers, especially the younger ones, who die in the next two weeks from catching something while they're working, and then things just worsen and they died.

00:15:29.280 Now, if it had happened today, for example, if even one doctor or one nurse had caught it from somebody and died today, would we know it?

00:15:46.300 And maybe it happened and I missed it?

00:15:48.520 So, watch the healthcare workers themselves and see if their mortality rate approaches zero.

00:16:00.780 Because that's my prediction.

00:16:03.360 Has anybody mentioned that yet?

00:16:05.080 I think I'll be the first person who said this to you to watch that variable.

00:16:10.960 Watch that variable.

00:16:12.200 And here's why.

00:16:12.840 If there's a shortage of the hydrochloroquine, and if they know it works, who has it?

00:16:25.060 The frontline doctors, right?

00:16:27.560 Now, at the very least, they would take it quickly if they saw symptoms.

00:16:32.260 Which means they would be first to get this drug.

00:16:35.200 They were still wondering, does it work?

00:16:37.180 Is it safe?

00:16:37.820 If you hear that zero doctors and frontline medical staff have died, but you do hear that

00:16:45.540 people got it, at some point, you're going to have to ask yourself why you have zero mortality

00:16:52.940 among that group.

00:16:55.960 And I think the answer is going to be that they have access to the hydrochloroquine.

00:17:01.480 Now, if tomorrow you hear of some tragic death, then take that as counter data.

00:17:10.200 And if you see another one, well, then this is falling apart pretty quickly.

00:17:15.380 But, if you just don't hear it for a week, that might be a pretty good drug.

00:17:24.480 Right?

00:17:26.260 So, here's a prediction I'm going to make.

00:17:28.460 There will be no important, like a senator, you know, Rand Paul, unfortunately, tested positive.

00:17:38.300 And we, of course, wish him the best.

00:17:40.740 Now, he's young enough, and one assumes that, you know, he would be front of the line for

00:17:46.760 getting some meds that are in short supply.

00:17:50.620 I hope so.

00:17:51.600 I mean, I don't want to be the person who says, oh, why do the politicians get it first?

00:17:56.500 No, they work for us.

00:17:58.720 We need Rand Paul to be healthy.

00:18:01.620 If it's a choice between I get the meds or Rand Paul gets the meds, I'll give it to him.

00:18:06.660 Because he's, you know, he's got a higher leverage in the emergency.

00:18:11.040 So, I would think Rand Paul, the other senators who actually test positive, if any of them do,

00:18:17.060 I think they'll get the drug.

00:18:18.300 So, here's my prediction.

00:18:21.100 You're just not going to see a celebrity death unless it's somebody who's, you know, 85 years old.

00:18:27.520 But your prediction, from this point on, you will not see a famous politician, rich person,

00:18:36.040 frontline medical person, celebrity.

00:18:40.300 Basically, make your own list of anybody you think already has access to the limited supply.

00:18:47.620 And in your mind, say, okay, if anybody that I think has access to the limited supply,

00:18:53.080 if one of them dies and they're 45 and there's no underlying conditions, panic.

00:18:59.840 No, don't panic for the first one.

00:19:04.400 But, I mean, if you saw a trend developing there, then maybe you should be concerned about it.

00:19:08.760 But I'm just going to put that out there.

00:19:11.260 That's the one variable that matters the most to me because it's the canary in the coal mine.

00:19:16.740 It's the one that's going to tell you that maybe there's something there, which we don't know yet.

00:19:22.820 All right.

00:19:25.200 I don't know exactly what's going on in Congress.

00:19:29.840 But I know the solution.

00:19:33.920 A lot of light.

00:19:36.600 So, whatever the, somebody's saying Harvey Weinstein.

00:19:40.300 I just don't know if the Harvey Weinstein thing is true.

00:19:43.360 I think that's a wait and see because I think there was one sketchy source for it.

00:19:48.560 And I don't know.

00:19:49.380 Would anybody know?

00:19:51.000 Who knows?

00:19:55.780 So, it doesn't look like Congress is doing their job.

00:19:59.840 In the sense that if they can't get legislation passed today because they're arguing about the way to do it.

00:20:06.220 And I'm not sure I have an opinion because I haven't looked at the details yet.

00:20:10.100 But if any of this money is being funneled through companies, the public is going to be pretty angry.

00:20:18.540 There, of course, will be the controversy of, you know, if we're saving hotels, what does that mean for the Trump hotels?

00:20:25.640 And I think I'm going to side with the president on this.

00:20:31.420 Surprise.

00:20:33.020 I haven't sided with him on everything.

00:20:35.860 But certainly not even involved in the crisis, I haven't.

00:20:39.600 But I think it would not be right to exclude the president's hotels if like hotels, you know, if hotels in general are going to be rescued.

00:20:55.140 There are a lot of employment involved.

00:20:57.140 You know, it's one of our biggest businesses.

00:20:58.500 I don't know.

00:20:59.840 I think I'd be a little bit flexible on that.

00:21:04.460 You know, it would be easy to imagine a million ways that that looks wrong, is wrong, could be wrong.

00:21:10.940 But I don't know.

00:21:11.800 If they get treated, you know, if Don Jr.'s running the company and they get treated the way Hyatt gets treated, the way, I'm not sure if those are exactly comparable.

00:21:21.860 But if they get treated like their peers, I'm actually completely okay with it.

00:21:27.560 It would be more of a question about whether the whole industry is to be.

00:21:31.820 But, you know, it certainly wouldn't be fair to exclude somebody for that reason.

00:21:39.260 Do you think we could build UV light tunnels to disinfect faster?

00:21:44.660 Sure.

00:21:46.480 I'm not exactly the engineer to ask that question.

00:21:49.500 So I'll just say, yeah, why not?

00:21:50.840 No, I have no idea if that would work.

00:21:54.640 All right.

00:21:57.160 Colorado governor wants citizens to run slash walk less and ration their time outside.

00:22:04.220 What?

00:22:05.920 Why would you ration your time outside?

00:22:08.360 Certainly it might make sense to stay away from other people.

00:22:12.000 But why would you ration your time outside?

00:22:15.080 I don't even understand that.

00:22:16.280 Well, I don't even know if it's true.

00:22:17.660 So ignore that.

00:22:19.200 Do you think we need to cure TDS before we cure the Wuhan virus?

00:22:25.980 Well, I'm just going to take a vacation from that question, if you don't mind.

00:22:35.000 You know, nobody likes talking about TDS and who did what dumb in politics than I do.

00:22:40.660 But I don't really have the appetite for it right now.

00:22:43.720 I just don't have the stomach for the small stuff at the moment.

00:22:48.780 Jennifer says, how bad is this going to be?

00:22:53.120 I have a bad feeling they aren't telling us the worst.

00:22:55.840 FEMA guy today was or was not reassuring.

00:23:00.840 How bad is it going to be?

00:23:02.740 Well, here's the thing.

00:23:04.320 It will only be as bad for the bulk of society as we collectively are willing to let it be.

00:23:16.540 So the government can tell us to stay home.

00:23:19.760 But I think you'd agree there's some point where we're just not going to.

00:23:23.820 And I feel like the government knows that, too, don't you?

00:23:27.640 You know, there's citizens are doing a fairly good job of doing what the government is asking for the greater good.

00:23:36.000 You know, there's some young people who are ignoring everything, of course.

00:23:40.240 We're doing a pretty good job.

00:23:42.480 But now take that a month from now, right?

00:23:48.500 In a month, if you've saved some old people but you don't know which ones,

00:23:54.540 you know, it's not like they had names.

00:23:56.280 It's like, oh, you saved Bob.

00:23:57.820 You just know that nobody died or not as many people died as could have.

00:24:03.640 And I don't know if we could last more than a month.

00:24:08.420 Even if our government said, you've got to do it.

00:24:11.000 You know, we're going to send the police around.

00:24:14.360 There are a lot of us.

00:24:16.160 There are a lot of citizens.

00:24:18.220 You know, there wouldn't be enough police.

00:24:20.740 And I don't think the police would have the appetite to lock you up for opening your business if you can't pay the bills.

00:24:26.840 So I think there's sort of a magic psychological deadline that feels like one month,

00:24:36.060 including the time that we've already been locked down.

00:24:38.740 It feels like that's just going to be, you know, a make or break point.

00:24:45.100 Because people tend to think in terms of these simple increments of time, like a week or a month.

00:24:53.100 A week, we can handle.

00:24:55.700 We know we can handle a week, right?

00:24:57.320 There's no question about that.

00:24:58.320 We just did it.

00:25:00.520 Two weeks?

00:25:01.680 Yeah, we can handle two weeks.

00:25:02.820 We can handle two weeks and bounce back, if that's all it were.

00:25:07.320 Three weeks?

00:25:09.220 Absolutely.

00:25:10.680 It's going to get a little harder.

00:25:13.140 But yeah, we could do three weeks.

00:25:15.680 Four weeks?

00:25:18.140 Well, you're going to start getting defectors at about the fourth week.

00:25:22.000 And after the fourth week, the public is going to say, look, you know who's vulnerable.

00:25:28.760 It's grandma.

00:25:30.700 It's your job to hide grandma.

00:25:33.200 And from this day forward, it's my job to go to work.

00:25:36.680 And I don't care what the government tells me.

00:25:38.880 I'm going to work.

00:25:40.480 We're going to hide grandma.

00:25:42.320 We're going to get through this.

00:25:43.320 So there's a point where citizens would disobey.

00:25:48.820 But I don't think you're going to get into that.

00:25:51.680 You know, there will obviously, there will always be some people who are disobeying anything.

00:25:55.340 But I think that it will be obvious to all of us what is too long by American standards of, you know,

00:26:04.960 how much we want to protect each other versus how much risk do we want to take versus, you know,

00:26:09.920 what's good for the economy versus saving a few lives.

00:26:12.460 I feel like the American, I don't know, just the way we are, the American nature might put up with a month.

00:26:24.140 But, man, that's going to be tough after that.

00:26:27.340 So, and I don't think we will have to after a month.

00:26:30.160 I think we'll have enough of a handle on the testing kits and the, you know, who's susceptible and the meds and stuff

00:26:36.840 that we'll start taking some chances in a month.

00:26:40.720 But probably something like that.

00:26:42.460 I think in two weeks we'll know what it looks like, but we won't be able to execute yet.

00:26:47.540 So I think in two weeks we'll know what our tools are, we'll know what the plan looks like,

00:26:51.920 we'll have a better idea how to get out, but it's not going to be in two weeks, probably.

00:26:56.060 How quickly will we know if the meds are effective?

00:27:04.580 My understanding is it's sort of a several-day thing.

00:27:10.440 You know, I think something like a one-week and you could be pretty confident.

00:27:14.840 Not that they're completely cleared, but that it's working.

00:27:20.200 And indeed, I think after three or four days, you know, you probably would know it's working on most people.

00:27:27.900 New York's worse than the rest of the country.

00:27:31.900 Why?

00:27:32.200 Oh, I talked about that.

00:27:33.040 They just have different conditions.

00:27:34.840 More crowding, more international travel, you know, more, you know, just more people.

00:27:41.620 They have more of everything except old people, but that's the good news. 1.00

00:27:45.780 Okay, Ray is asking about mask reuse.

00:27:55.420 I talked about that.

00:28:00.480 What do you think about, predicts a quicker recovery?

00:28:05.340 So there's somebody who, a Nobel laureate, who's predicting a quicker recovery.

00:28:10.800 Let me see if the whole story is in the headline, and then somebody says, we're going to be fine.

00:28:19.400 We can get through the worst of it.

00:28:23.720 She just, okay, she doesn't really have a, she doesn't have a point of view other than she's looking at the same data we are and saying, yeah, it'll be fine.

00:28:33.440 Totally unrelated question to anything.

00:28:35.520 Was it fun to be on Babylon 5?

00:28:37.440 So some of you know there was an old TV show, sci-fi, called Babylon 5, and I had a guest role with, I don't know, two lines or three lines or something,

00:28:47.500 because I had said something good about the show when I was, you know, at the height of my Dilbert fame.

00:28:53.200 So they invited me to be on the show and just play myself and have a few lines.

00:28:57.820 So the question was, was it fun?

00:28:59.600 Yeah, it was really fun.

00:29:01.040 It was really fun.

00:29:01.740 Because I got to hang out with the cast and I was, you know, as a huge fan, so I just get to, you know, sit down at lunch and all of the cast of the show were like sitting with me at the table.

00:29:14.080 It was just the coolest thing in the world.

00:29:15.900 I could not have, I could not have geeked out harder than that.

00:29:19.780 And they're all friendly, you know, everybody's chatting with me and stuff.

00:29:22.680 And it just blew me away because they were even in costumes.

00:29:25.120 All right, how long do you think we can sustain?

00:29:31.900 Well, most of the questions are all about how long.

00:29:35.180 And I think I've answered that.

00:29:37.520 Will this pandemic be looked on as the most significant event in world history since World War II?

00:29:44.020 Well, kind of depends.

00:29:46.220 Kind of depends, doesn't it?

00:29:48.660 Depends how big it gets and how long it lasts.

00:29:50.960 I've suggested that for any young children that this is their 9-11, this is their Pearl Harbor.

00:30:01.580 So certainly the kids who are going through this, it might be like a formative experience.

00:30:08.700 For those of us who are older, we've gone through, you know, we've had a few of these.

00:30:13.980 Okay, Vietnam, 9-11, now this.

00:30:17.160 So we've had a little more experience seeing things get really dark before they get better.

00:30:23.840 So I think we have a little more.

00:30:25.740 Yeah, I'd be interested if people my age are generally less worried.

00:30:30.660 That would be a good and interesting poll, wouldn't it?

00:30:34.240 You know, by age, how worried are you?

00:30:36.420 That probably has more to do with your specific situation.

00:30:39.500 But I wonder if people have just been here before.

00:30:41.980 And I feel I have.

00:30:44.720 I mean, to me, this all looks familiar, even though every part of it is new.

00:30:48.860 You know, there's nothing like this that's ever happened before.

00:30:51.460 And it still feels familiar.

00:30:53.720 Because the feeling that, oh, we humans, how are we ever going to beat this monster?

00:30:58.880 How will we ever beat the year 2000 bug?

00:31:02.000 You know, how will we do it?

00:31:03.020 How?

00:31:03.760 And then we do it.

00:31:05.540 Time after time after time.

00:31:07.600 We'll never solve this problem.

00:31:09.840 Oh, it's solved already?

00:31:11.520 Okay.

00:31:12.200 I was pretty sure that would never be solved.

00:31:16.180 Do you think the stock market recovery will be graduated or spiky?

00:31:19.980 I think it will be super spiky and trend up.

00:31:25.700 But probably not until we hear some good news out of New York.

00:31:30.220 Meaning the drug trial they're doing.

00:31:34.880 All right.

00:31:36.120 Doctors are stockpiling something.

00:31:40.960 Yeah, I don't want to give any hints to somebody who might try to become a hoarder.

00:31:46.440 I don't want to do that.

00:31:49.720 What skills and projects do you think knowledge workers could look to focus on during the isolation?

00:31:54.620 Well, I would say it depends on your existing talent stack and your ambitions.

00:32:00.240 So look at what you already are good at and then say, what's the most valuable thing I could add to that?

00:32:06.980 And it might not even be technical.

00:32:08.680 It could be, well, it could be.

00:32:10.720 It could be, you know, graphic design, for example.

00:32:13.920 Graphic design goes really well with technical skills.

00:32:16.820 Because at some point you're going to have to design the part that people look at and the buttons on it, the user interface.

00:32:26.140 Does Trump win re-election?

00:32:28.880 You know, if you just straight-lined it from here, yes.

00:32:34.080 But, of course, it will change.

00:32:35.620 So I tweeted today, I think I mentioned this, that the Joe Biden thing is well beyond being funny.

00:32:44.700 It's just not funny anymore.

00:32:46.800 And, you know, every once in a while I still laugh at it because it's like, ha-ha.

00:32:51.060 But this emergency has also reminded us that it's good to have backup plans.

00:32:58.860 Now, if something happens to Trump while he's in office, the backup plan is Mike Pence.

00:33:06.700 And I'm perfectly happy with that as a, you know, a solid spare tire.

00:33:10.940 You know, I probably, I don't think I'd vote for him if he ran for president.

00:33:14.360 But Mike Pence knows where all the jewelry is kept and where all the buttons are.

00:33:19.020 And, you know, he's not going to go nuts.

00:33:21.220 So we've got a backup in that situation.

00:33:24.880 But what's our backup if between now and November something happens, because it's a very uncertain time,

00:33:32.320 either it's bad news or whatever it is, and Trump can't win re-election for whatever reason.

00:33:38.060 We'd have to imagine something new comes out of this, because so far he would win.

00:33:43.640 But suppose that happens.

00:33:45.120 Who's our backup?

00:33:46.920 Well, the backup is whoever he's running against.

00:33:49.800 And it looks like that's going to be Joe Biden.

00:33:52.760 Is that really a backup plan?

00:33:54.880 Is there any Democrat who has watched him basically hiding because there can't be any other reason he's hiding that he's not capable?

00:34:05.280 Can we agree on that?

00:34:06.980 Can we agree there's no reason in the world that we're not seeing him every day, at least on video, except that he's not up to it?

00:34:15.520 Right?

00:34:16.840 Can anybody suggest any alternate explanation?

00:34:20.240 And the longer that goes on, the more obvious it should be, even to his supporters, I would think.

00:34:28.880 So they may be starting to come around.

00:34:32.220 So I wouldn't mind having a backup.

00:34:34.800 I wouldn't mind having a Democrat that maybe is not your first choice, but they're not going to break anything.

00:34:40.780 They're not brain dead.

00:34:42.240 So let's get that.

00:34:45.360 So that's a call to Democrats to maybe make the adult decision there.

00:34:53.260 Let's see.

00:34:58.800 Old Funkin' Junk asked me this question.

00:35:01.020 What's this COVID thing I saw today on the TV?

00:35:06.300 Was Trump mocking Romney?

00:35:08.440 Yeah, it looked like that.

00:35:10.000 So Trump actually made a coronavirus insult to Mitt Romney because Mitt Romney is quarantining.

00:35:21.160 I mean, I hope he's fine.

00:35:22.700 You know, I'm sure no matter what you think of him, I think we all hope that he does well and, you know, there's no bad outcome there.

00:35:29.680 But Trump actually, he says, oh, that's too bad.

00:35:36.300 That's just so terrible.

00:35:37.800 It's funny.

00:35:38.880 All right.

00:35:40.500 And by the way, I don't think that was smart.

00:35:42.900 Like, that wasn't his best move.

00:35:45.600 You know, normally I love his put-downs and his insults.

00:35:48.880 It's just part of the act, and it's very effective.

00:35:51.680 And I'm sort of a fan of the act.

00:35:54.780 But I don't think that was the place.

00:35:57.320 I think if he watched it on replay, he might take it back.

00:36:02.620 He probably knows that.

00:36:03.660 I don't have to tell him that.

00:36:04.600 I think he knows that.

00:36:06.020 So it wasn't the time.

00:36:08.920 But on the other hand, you know, if you're a Trump supporter,

00:36:12.460 you sort of have to accept that it's a package deal.

00:36:16.320 You know, I could wish all day long that he wouldn't do that sort of thing.

00:36:20.560 But he's going to do it.

00:36:22.440 So I'm not going to spend a lot of time wishing he doesn't do it because he's going to do it.

00:36:29.120 And on some level, I kind of love that about him, that he's so committed to it.

00:36:35.940 But, you know, at the same time, I can say, well, it might have been not so good that time.

00:36:42.460 But how's my friend progressing on his treatment better?

00:36:52.460 So for two days in a row, the symptoms are noticeably improving

00:36:58.860 after several days of getting worse and being really quite bad.

00:37:03.380 So pretty much immediately upon taking the drugs, he capped out.

00:37:11.740 And he's substantially better.

00:37:14.340 I don't know how many more days before you get to all better, but substantially better.

00:37:20.660 How many folks have died of seasonal flu this year?

00:37:24.100 I guess a Chinese bot?

00:37:29.120 Because if you're still asking that question, you're really not paying attention.

00:37:34.860 We're all smart enough not to compare it to the regular flu, right?

00:37:40.800 Aren't we past that?

00:37:42.480 Aren't we past that?

00:37:44.060 And I'll say again, because you see the doubters out there saying,

00:37:47.760 hey, the statistics don't suggest that this will be bad at all.

00:37:50.980 Why are we closing everything?

00:37:52.620 And the question that has to be asked, as I said this morning, look at the hospitals.

00:37:58.020 You know, if the hospitals do not go over capacity, I'm with you.

00:38:03.080 The moment we can be sure the hospitals will not be over capacity,

00:38:07.680 let's start getting back to work.

00:38:10.400 But they very quickly reach capacity,

00:38:13.400 and the professionals at those hospitals think that it will be exceeded.

00:38:16.340 What if they're all wrong?

00:38:20.100 Is that even possible?

00:38:21.940 Well, I mean, it's possible for people to be wrong.

00:38:24.840 But people are so skeptical of all experts right now that people are actually asking,

00:38:30.680 what if the whole thing is just nothing?

00:38:32.780 What if it's all just mass hysteria, and the only problem is the panic itself?

00:38:36.860 To which I say, the hospitals are either full of patients,

00:38:43.560 and more coming every day, or that's not happening.

00:38:46.940 You can ignore every other question and just say, is that happening?

00:38:51.280 Yes, no.

00:38:52.820 Hospitals filling up wherever there are outbreaks?

00:38:55.280 Yes.

00:38:56.240 Can you build them fast enough to keep up?

00:38:58.820 No.

00:38:59.920 Is that a gigantic problem?

00:39:02.160 Yeah.

00:39:04.200 So that's why the economy is closed.

00:39:09.780 Can phones ping each other when we are social distanced too close?

00:39:14.720 When you push a button to say, it's okay, family member,

00:39:18.340 so that you can be close to a family member.

00:39:21.300 I don't know.

00:39:22.820 Does your Bluetooth allow you to tell the distance?

00:39:26.480 Is that a thing?

00:39:28.140 I suppose.

00:39:28.820 I mean, if you could somehow Bluetooth sense somebody

00:39:31.760 and know that it was six feet, maybe.

00:39:34.020 Maybe that's a thing.

00:39:34.960 I'd have to ask somebody else.

00:39:44.580 What about the town in Italy that had 3% infection rate in late February?

00:39:49.300 Why did it spread so fast there?

00:39:52.440 Well, we don't know,

00:39:54.900 but it might have to do with people who live with their grandparents,

00:39:58.820 and small non-air-conditioned spaces and a lot of physicality and kissing on the cheek and stuff.

00:40:07.480 So it could be just as simple as living style.

00:40:11.080 It could be the way they count.

00:40:13.040 We don't know.

00:40:13.900 It'll take a while to find out.

00:40:15.080 Let's see what else.

00:40:19.420 Do you support a UBI during the economic downturn?

00:40:22.160 Yes.

00:40:22.720 Yes.

00:40:23.860 If somebody has a better idea how somebody who doesn't have money can eat and at least pay for the essentials,

00:40:33.160 if you get a better idea, I'm certainly open to it.

00:40:36.180 But what's a better idea than, all right, here's some cash.

00:40:39.540 See if it can hold you over.

00:40:40.740 Yeah, we have to work out the details, but I don't see.

00:40:47.260 Here's what I think is probably the mistake.

00:40:49.140 We have to keep businesses afloat.

00:40:51.640 Kind of have to do it because I support a lot of people, too.

00:40:55.380 So there's probably no solution in which some big businesses you wish had not been bailed out are going to get bailed out.

00:41:02.640 Well, it's probably just going to happen.

00:41:05.140 But maybe that should be separated from the UBI decision.

00:41:10.240 So maybe that's what they're doing.

00:41:13.200 All right.

00:41:14.460 What is going to happen to mortgages after three months of quarantine?

00:41:18.640 Well, you know, I've seen the idea floated, and I haven't spent enough time to sort of think it through to know whether I like it or not.

00:41:25.600 And the idea is that we just suspend all of those payments.

00:41:29.800 It's just nobody pays anybody for only these categories.

00:41:35.500 So you can imagine that just nobody pays their heat, utility, Comcast bill, cell phone, mortgage, rent, maybe, I don't know, health care if you're paying for it yourself.

00:41:51.500 So you can easily imagine that people would just stop paying for the duration of this and get $1,000 from the government, and they buy food, and they're just sort of not paying any bills.

00:42:03.100 You're not driving anywhere.

00:42:04.280 You're not going on a vacation.

00:42:05.440 So we're living kind of cheaply watching TV and looking at our phones for a few weeks.

00:42:09.660 So I don't see any way you could get around a UBI.

00:42:16.200 It's just how do you do it.

00:42:21.120 What's Trump planning to do with student loans?

00:42:23.300 He says there's more than 60 days interest rate.

00:42:26.160 Well, you know, that's pretty good, better than nothing.

00:42:29.880 How do you convince some of you know that this is a big deal, that they need to maintain distance from others?

00:42:38.340 Yeah, here's the problem, and it's very much like the gun debate.

00:42:43.260 I think I'm the only one who frames it this way.

00:42:46.760 The gun debate is not whether guns are good or guns are bad.

00:42:49.880 We just act like it is.

00:42:51.040 The real debate is that maybe a gun is good for me, because in my special situation, you know, I might get more of a stalker's.

00:43:00.100 So in my case, owning a gun might make me safer.

00:43:03.400 But at the very least, it should be up to me to decide that, right?

00:43:06.840 So I'm pro-Second Amendment.

00:43:11.380 But it is nonetheless true that there are people who probably are less safe because they live in an area where guns are plentiful.

00:43:21.040 So who gets to win?

00:43:22.960 Do I get to win because a gun would make me safer?

00:43:26.480 Or does somebody else get to win because the guns make them less safe and they're not going to own one of their own, for whatever reason?

00:43:32.660 So they just don't want them around.

00:43:34.860 It's not what's good for people.

00:43:37.160 It's not really constitutional.

00:43:38.920 We just pretend it is.

00:43:40.760 Basically, people have different preferences, different needs, different risk profiles,

00:43:45.820 and they're just acting rationally for their own risk profile.

00:43:49.620 I mean, if you just like shooting and hunting and, you know, you like guns,

00:43:55.080 well, it's pretty easy to convince yourself that, you know,

00:43:58.280 they can't be pried out of your cold, dead hands and you support the Constitution.

00:44:02.800 And if it's the opposite, you don't like guns, you don't want to be around them,

00:44:06.600 you're not going to hunt, they're only bad for you,

00:44:08.920 you're going to make up some argument why your side needs to win.

00:44:12.400 And it's really just an expression of self-interest that we dress up in these constitutional,

00:44:19.660 you know, life and death kinds of answers.

00:44:22.700 So I think I was going to make a...

00:44:28.300 Oh, so the analogy to that, to the coronavirus, is that we have different risk profiles.

00:44:33.080 So the people that you can't convince to take you seriously,

00:44:38.320 also, for the most part, know it's not going to kill them.

00:44:42.680 They just think it'll kill other people. 0.99

00:44:45.480 So if they act dumb, that's probably an act. 0.94

00:44:50.640 It's more like they're acting selfish and they don't want to admit that that's all that's going on. 0.97

00:44:56.120 It's like, well, I really want to go to the bar and I know it might kill your grandma,

00:45:00.800 but I really like going to the bar and I don't know your grandmother that well.

00:45:06.340 And if you don't think that they're making that exact calculation,

00:45:10.540 you've not met people because they're making that exact calculation.

00:45:18.040 Exactly like I said it, you know, I could save your grandmother by not going to the bar,

00:45:23.660 but I like the bar.

00:45:25.640 I don't know your grandmother, never met her.

00:45:28.400 So some people are not so good.

00:45:32.580 I think we can conclude that completely.

00:45:37.480 All right.

00:45:41.720 All right.

00:45:43.320 Well, we're seeing all kinds of people invent things

00:45:45.260 and we're seeing human ingenuity in ways that we've never seen it.

00:45:48.940 We're seeing some amazing things happening.

00:45:51.000 We can see ourselves getting stronger, smarter, a little less political.

00:46:02.100 Still there.

00:46:03.780 Still there.

00:46:05.280 But we're less political this week.

00:46:08.800 Kind of feels good.

00:46:10.220 I got to say, at least on that level.

00:46:14.180 So we are going to be okay.

00:46:16.160 We're not going to run out of food because you can't hoard broccoli.

00:46:20.360 Right?

00:46:21.440 What would be the point of hoarding something that's just going to rot if you don't eat it all yourself?

00:46:25.640 So you're not going to run out of food.

00:46:26.900 And my guess is if you just don't pay your bills,

00:46:32.040 the people you owe those bills are going to have to work it out.

00:46:35.000 They're going to have to work it out with you.

00:46:36.440 They're going to have to extend it.

00:46:37.580 They're going to have to get something from the government.

00:46:39.880 So I don't think there will be a time when somebody can't eat

00:46:43.480 or have the basic essentials.

00:46:46.720 I don't see that.

00:46:47.620 That's a real risk.

00:46:49.280 Except in little pockets.

00:46:51.620 You might need to help your neighbor a little bit.

00:46:53.720 But basically, we have enough to go around.

00:46:55.940 And that will continue to be the case.

00:47:02.700 Something wrong with the China stats.

00:47:04.520 How did they get to no new cases?

00:47:06.720 Here's my theory on China.

00:47:10.280 Just speculation.

00:47:12.620 My theory is that they do have new cases.

00:47:16.400 And they treat them with the meds that we're testing.

00:47:21.060 And it reduces the risk of dying to so close to zero

00:47:25.660 that they just probably decided, you know,

00:47:30.500 if people die, everybody's going to notice

00:47:34.000 because there will be a lot of death.

00:47:35.660 It's hard to hide people dying, even in China.

00:47:39.620 But if they don't die,

00:47:42.220 and let's say we got 20 of them a day,

00:47:45.460 maybe we could just give them the meds.

00:47:49.460 They won't die.

00:47:51.080 And we'll just not talk about it.

00:47:53.140 See how tomorrow looks.

00:47:55.160 So, again, it's just speculation.

00:47:57.260 But if I had to guess,

00:47:59.420 a lot of our mysteries

00:48:01.120 about, you know,

00:48:03.160 why does Trump seem to have a different opinion than Fauci?

00:48:06.640 You know, why is it that we're not seeing

00:48:08.300 not seeing a front-line medical people dropping dead,

00:48:13.200 even when they're infected?

00:48:15.740 It may.

00:48:16.580 And why the China number is mysteriously down

00:48:19.140 in a way that doesn't make sense to us?

00:48:21.700 It might all be the same reason

00:48:23.840 that there's a med that works

00:48:27.720 and everybody's responding to it,

00:48:30.480 that plus the fact there's a shortage.

00:48:32.560 So, they're using,

00:48:37.380 somebody says,

00:48:38.300 if you don't have taste or smell,

00:48:40.440 that's bad for me

00:48:42.340 because I haven't had my taste or smell too much.

00:48:50.720 Will we know more about virus

00:48:52.320 than we ever have in history?

00:48:54.080 Yeah, you know,

00:48:55.360 I've got a feeling that our toolbox

00:48:57.400 for beating viruses

00:48:58.960 is going to be really good.

00:49:02.560 Yeah, the number of people walking dogs

00:49:07.660 is off the hook.

00:49:08.920 You know, I went for my healthy evening walk today

00:49:12.640 and man, there are a lot of people out there

00:49:14.880 walking around.

00:49:16.100 And we're all giving each other, you know,

00:49:18.320 20 feet across the road.

00:49:20.240 It's fun.

00:49:24.220 Are you allergic to cats?

00:49:25.800 I'm not.

00:49:30.620 Where can I get a local girl? 1.00

00:49:33.140 Go for social distancing book autograph.

00:49:37.320 That's actually a pretty creative idea.

00:49:40.700 So, did you see what Nextdoor is doing, the app?

00:49:44.860 Talk about a great reaction to an emergency.

00:49:50.420 So, the Nextdoor app allows you to see a map

00:49:53.040 of where you are.

00:49:53.820 And then if anybody is signed up

00:49:55.900 to help out an elderly

00:49:57.740 or do some shopping,

00:49:58.980 they show up on the map

00:50:00.320 so you can see exactly where they are.

00:50:02.420 So, you can see your house

00:50:03.400 and you're like,

00:50:03.860 oh, block over there,

00:50:05.600 there's that, you know,

00:50:07.480 20-year-old girl

00:50:08.380 who got sent home from college

00:50:10.300 and she's going to go

00:50:11.080 do some shopping for you.

00:50:13.360 And I looked just to see

00:50:14.980 if anybody in my neighborhood

00:50:16.080 had actually signed up

00:50:17.360 to do those things

00:50:18.160 and there were two of them.

00:50:19.620 Two of them just really close.

00:50:22.120 So, what a terrific tool.

00:50:24.620 I mean, with this tool alone,

00:50:27.180 so if you're worried about going hungry

00:50:29.060 or whatever,

00:50:30.260 imagine you've got this tool

00:50:31.760 and either you're the elderly person

00:50:33.980 who just, you know,

00:50:35.000 I don't know,

00:50:35.340 you ran out of food

00:50:36.080 or you just need something.

00:50:37.580 You just put it on the app

00:50:38.520 and you're deluged

00:50:40.620 with neighbors saying,

00:50:41.760 I'll take care of that.

00:50:42.980 I've seen that happen.

00:50:44.920 All right.

00:50:46.940 That's all for now.

00:50:48.340 I will see you in the morning.

00:50:51.440 Have a great night's sleep.

00:50:53.460 I think next week,

00:50:55.600 this coming week,

00:50:57.120 there's going to be a lot of good news.

00:50:59.200 A lot of bad news, too.

00:51:00.820 The number of infected will go up.

00:51:03.120 But watch for the number of deaths

00:51:05.020 to start plunging.

00:51:07.120 And that's your tell

00:51:09.040 that we're going to get back to work

00:51:11.360 before things go off the rails.

00:51:14.320 So, you're going to be all right.

00:51:16.080 Hang in there.

00:51:17.060 Talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 23, 2020

Episode 866 Scott Adams： Wrapped in a Blanket and Answering Your Questions

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