Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 26, 2020


Episode 873 Scott Adams： Coffee Now. Stat.


Episode Stats


Length

43 minutes

Words per minute

158.3483

Word count

6,817

Sentence count

420

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

17

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of the podcast, I talk about the coronavirus pandemic and the people who got it wrong, and the ones who were right, and who was completely wrong. I also talk about who is getting it mostly right and who wasn t.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Alexa, turn on studio. 1.00
00:00:09.680 Hey, there I am.
00:00:11.280 A little sideways, let's see if I can fix that.
00:00:14.000 Hey, much better.
00:00:15.680 If you don't mind, I'm a little bit behind.
00:00:18.760 So while you're streaming in here,
00:00:24.000 while you're streaming in here,
00:00:26.360 let me print out my notes, if you don't mind.
00:00:30.600 It'll only be a minute.
00:00:32.520 Bear with me.
00:00:33.480 Talk among yourselves.
00:00:37.600 All right, while we're waiting for those to print,
00:00:42.000 we've got something else to do.
00:00:44.280 It's called the simultaneous sip.
00:00:46.480 Yes, it is.
00:00:49.280 And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,
00:00:51.640 a tank or a chalice or a stein,
00:00:52.600 a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.
00:00:54.320 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:00:55.360 I like coffee.
00:00:56.960 And join me now for the dopamine of the day,
00:00:58.920 the unparalleled pleasure,
00:01:02.040 the thing that makes everything better,
00:01:03.200 including the pandemic.
00:01:06.400 It's called the simultaneous sip.
00:01:08.880 It's medicinal.
00:01:10.640 Go.
00:01:17.080 Let's fix that lighting.
00:01:19.520 Let's fix this lighting.
00:01:22.640 Hold on.
00:01:25.080 Let's fix that and grab my notes.
00:01:31.840 This is the part of the show that you usually don't see.
00:01:34.640 That's because I'm usually a little more organized.
00:01:37.920 Now,
00:01:38.200 for those of you who have been joining me in the morning and in the evening,
00:01:45.960 two hours a day of live programming,
00:01:48.480 you're probably saying to yourself,
00:01:51.520 gosh,
00:01:51.860 Scott,
00:01:52.240 you must be pretty busy producing two hours of live entertainment every day,
00:01:57.300 plus a comic strip.
00:01:58.880 And the answer is,
00:01:59.980 you have no idea how busy I am.
00:02:02.500 Let me tell you this.
00:02:07.100 There's a public situation going on with everything that's going on with the
00:02:14.500 coronavirus in the world.
00:02:16.180 And then there's your private situation,
00:02:18.520 you know,
00:02:18.720 the things that you're all doing in your homes to stay safe.
00:02:21.900 But there's a whole other world out there of stuff that's happening that,
00:02:27.900 you know,
00:02:29.160 in some cases you'll find out about a little bit later.
00:02:33.060 But,
00:02:33.780 oh my God,
00:02:35.160 the,
00:02:35.400 the,
00:02:36.340 I don't know,
00:02:38.060 the,
00:02:38.220 the things I've learned and the,
00:02:39.700 the things I've been involved with in the last few days,
00:02:42.220 I'll never really be able to talk about them.
00:02:44.500 But,
00:02:45.080 uh,
00:02:45.620 the world is a,
00:02:47.060 is a magical place.
00:02:48.300 The world is a magical place.
00:02:51.520 That's all I can tell you.
00:02:53.260 All right.
00:02:54.400 Let's start out by,
00:02:56.300 um,
00:02:56.740 if anybody's new here,
00:02:58.080 this is not bragging.
00:03:00.140 All right.
00:03:00.720 This is just for the new people.
00:03:02.660 The people who have been with me for a while know that I always talk about
00:03:06.780 which predictions I got right and which ones I got wrong,
00:03:09.200 because you need to know,
00:03:11.640 should you believe my predictions?
00:03:14.280 Should you not?
00:03:14.940 Should you put a percentage of likelihood on them?
00:03:17.460 And the same with everybody else.
00:03:19.280 So everybody should be checking the predictions,
00:03:21.540 especially with this COVID-19 situation,
00:03:24.620 because we all made a lot of predictions.
00:03:28.600 And you need to,
00:03:29.620 every now and then,
00:03:30.260 just stop back and say,
00:03:31.180 okay,
00:03:32.040 who is getting it mostly right and who wasn't?
00:03:35.100 Because that should tell you a little bit about the odds of who's going to
00:03:38.360 get it right the next time.
00:03:40.840 All right.
00:03:41.140 So that's,
00:03:41.600 that's the purpose of talking about the predictions.
00:03:44.200 It's not bragging by itself,
00:03:46.360 although it has that benefit.
00:03:48.440 Number one,
00:03:49.580 who told you to close the airports and flights from China?
00:03:53.980 Probably I'm the first person you heard say that.
00:03:56.480 And I said that before I even knew it was a thing.
00:03:59.060 I didn't even know you could close the airport.
00:04:01.480 I mean,
00:04:01.760 physically you can,
00:04:02.760 of course,
00:04:03.280 but I didn't actually think it was even in the top 10 possibilities.
00:04:09.340 When I first started screaming about it and,
00:04:11.700 and using profanity on Periscope saying,
00:04:14.280 close the airports and then we did.
00:04:16.560 some people told you the hospitals would not be crashed because it's just the flu.
00:04:23.580 I told you that they would.
00:04:25.180 We're all seeing,
00:04:26.320 we're already seeing hospital after hospital right on the edge.
00:04:30.220 So I would say all the people who said,
00:04:32.280 yes,
00:04:32.500 this will be a problem for the healthcare system.
00:04:34.380 We're right.
00:04:35.580 All the people who said,
00:04:36.740 eh,
00:04:37.080 it's just like the flu.
00:04:38.300 If the flu doesn't overrun our hospitals,
00:04:40.700 why won't those?
00:04:41.500 Because all of those people,
00:04:42.900 I think at this point we can say we're completely wrong.
00:04:45.320 And in a fairly dangerous way,
00:04:47.380 not fairly,
00:04:48.320 they were wrong in an extraordinarily dangerous way.
00:04:51.720 Because if we had not paid attention to it,
00:04:54.120 we would not have flexed up as soon as we did.
00:04:56.700 Could always do it sooner.
00:05:00.920 Who told you that the supply,
00:05:02.800 supply chains would be crushed.
00:05:05.960 And that that might be the bigger problem.
00:05:08.400 Mike Cernovich.
00:05:09.500 I don't remember where I was in terms of at what point I started to agree with him.
00:05:15.640 But he's the first person who sounded the alarm.
00:05:20.000 And there are a lot of people watching this who have to be thankful they got their toilet paper right.
00:05:26.940 Because they were listening to Mike.
00:05:28.660 Mike has a very long track record of being not just right,
00:05:32.860 but being able to look around corners.
00:05:35.000 I mean, he's not just right about what's straight ahead.
00:05:37.860 He's right about what's straight ahead and around the corner and down the alley.
00:05:41.240 I mean, if you're not following him,
00:05:43.360 it's just crazy at this point.
00:05:47.040 Who told you that masks do work,
00:05:49.640 even when the experts were telling you they did not?
00:05:52.600 Well, I'm one of them.
00:05:54.120 You know, Naval was saying it.
00:05:55.760 Probably lots of people.
00:05:56.800 I don't mean to be, you know,
00:05:58.960 mentioning everybody who said it.
00:06:00.900 But everybody who said that they don't work,
00:06:03.920 they were wrong.
00:06:05.740 Right?
00:06:06.060 And now all the studies are coming out.
00:06:07.840 We can see, oh yeah, it totally works.
00:06:09.480 Not only do masks work,
00:06:11.740 but you'd be better off with a bandana over your face than none at all.
00:06:16.500 So all the people who said, of course they work.
00:06:20.160 How could they not work?
00:06:22.200 You know, you could argue about the efficiency and stuff,
00:06:24.700 but it works a little.
00:06:26.660 I mean, if your cough is what's causing people to get sick,
00:06:31.660 how in any world does suppressing the thing that goes out and makes people sick,
00:06:37.960 how could that make it not better?
00:06:39.640 It just didn't make any sense from the start.
00:06:42.520 So all the people who said masks don't work,
00:06:44.480 you should never listen to them again.
00:06:47.360 Who's the first person who said to you,
00:06:50.500 the meds work,
00:06:52.360 but we probably have a shortage problem,
00:06:54.740 and that's why you're not hearing so much about them?
00:06:57.200 In the entire world,
00:07:00.560 of all the people talking about COVID-19,
00:07:03.540 a lot of them,
00:07:05.100 who was the first person who told you,
00:07:07.600 I wasn't the first person to say the meds could be good.
00:07:10.440 I am the first person who told you the meds are good,
00:07:13.040 and you're being lied to to control hoarding.
00:07:19.120 Right?
00:07:19.660 Now that's just a fact.
00:07:21.300 We don't have to wonder about that anymore.
00:07:22.860 So the different states,
00:07:26.040 Nevada and I think New York City,
00:07:29.000 if not the state,
00:07:29.820 I forget,
00:07:30.720 but they're already putting controls on the drug for hoarding,
00:07:34.340 and India,
00:07:35.760 which makes a lot of it,
00:07:36.820 has closed export,
00:07:39.120 and it looks like the pill is the game.
00:07:42.660 The pill is the game.
00:07:44.520 Somebody was saying that
00:07:45.500 we should have planned better to have more ventilators,
00:07:49.060 and if we'd started earlier,
00:07:50.540 we'd be ahead of the game.
00:07:52.860 But ventilators are largely the thing you do
00:07:57.860 because you didn't have the pills.
00:07:59.620 At least you didn't have them in the people in time. 0.53
00:08:02.480 If you had enough pills and you gave them to people
00:08:04.300 as soon as they presented symptoms,
00:08:05.940 the number of them that would ever need a ventilator
00:08:08.080 is small,
00:08:10.380 based on what we've seen so far.
00:08:13.840 So there's that.
00:08:15.500 All right.
00:08:15.760 Who told you that even though it seemed unlikely,
00:08:20.320 that very quickly,
00:08:21.260 because of the six degrees of separation thing,
00:08:24.100 you would start to know people
00:08:26.480 or have some connection to a lot of people who are getting it?
00:08:30.660 Have you noticed that already?
00:08:32.040 I think there's 60,000 people in a country of 350 million
00:08:35.880 who allegedly have been exposed.
00:08:40.200 How many do you know?
00:08:42.460 All right.
00:08:42.820 I already know one, two, three, four, five.
00:08:48.780 I think I know five people who have it
00:08:51.380 or probably have it at this point,
00:08:53.940 and that's not even counting the celebrities I know.
00:08:55.980 Well, the news today is that Kathy Griffin is in the hospital
00:09:00.080 with something pretty nasty,
00:09:02.460 and at least based on the symptoms,
00:09:04.180 it could be this, but she can't get a test.
00:09:07.080 That's right.
00:09:07.740 Kathy Griffin can't get a test. 1.00
00:09:11.180 I mean, in a timely manner.
00:09:13.000 She can get it eventually.
00:09:14.700 So I don't think she's being treated,
00:09:17.460 and she could die right in front of us.
00:09:21.120 I mean, it could happen if she's not getting the treatment.
00:09:23.600 So, I mean, that would just be the worst thing in the world.
00:09:29.260 So we're seeing the six degrees of separation coming true,
00:09:32.080 as I told you.
00:09:33.280 Who told you?
00:09:33.960 Who was the first person who told you
00:09:35.440 that when we go back to work,
00:09:36.860 it'll be a phased approach based on statistics
00:09:40.880 for different people with different risks?
00:09:43.960 Probably me, right?
00:09:45.700 Now, after the government says that's what they're going to do,
00:09:48.460 you say to yourself,
00:09:49.560 oh, yeah, it's kind of obvious in retrospect.
00:09:51.900 You wouldn't just send everybody back
00:09:54.260 with different risk profiles.
00:09:56.180 You'd segregate them.
00:09:57.900 So who told you that first?
00:09:59.300 That was me.
00:10:02.820 Who told you that,
00:10:04.480 who's been hammering on the importance
00:10:06.540 of decoupling from China?
00:10:08.520 Quite a few people.
00:10:10.160 You know, I'm not like the person who started it.
00:10:12.800 But among your world,
00:10:14.840 where did you hear it loudest and most?
00:10:17.480 Where did you hear the word decouple the most?
00:10:19.420 Probably for me.
00:10:21.700 From earliest and loudest among people you probably follow.
00:10:25.840 You know, Kyle Bass is louder.
00:10:27.640 Gordon Chang is louder.
00:10:29.280 But it's more likely you follow me than them.
00:10:32.780 So I would say that the world has come around to,
00:10:36.200 oh, yeah, decoupling is not crazy cartoonists
00:10:38.920 yelling about stuff.
00:10:40.620 Decoupling is what you absolutely have to do.
00:10:43.140 There's no question about it.
00:10:44.400 Who told you that human ingenuity during this crisis
00:10:49.160 would be mind-boggling
00:10:50.400 and that it would be the biggest variable
00:10:52.260 that can't be predicted?
00:10:54.520 That was me.
00:10:55.380 Now, again,
00:10:56.580 if it sounds like I'm saying
00:10:58.380 I'm the only person in the world
00:11:00.100 who thought this was happening,
00:11:01.360 nothing like that's happening.
00:11:03.020 I assume that for every opinion I had,
00:11:05.940 there were a million people or more
00:11:08.080 who had the same opinion,
00:11:09.680 but you might not have been following them.
00:11:11.760 You might not have heard them.
00:11:12.920 They might not have a platform like this.
00:11:16.080 So I'm not magic.
00:11:17.640 I'm just telling you that
00:11:18.540 if you're following people
00:11:19.600 who made all the wrong predictions,
00:11:21.900 maybe rethink that.
00:11:23.800 Here are some human ingenuity things.
00:11:26.160 Just a little sample of it.
00:11:28.700 Dyson, the company that makes the vacuum cleaners
00:11:31.640 and other things, hand dryers and stuff,
00:11:34.340 they designed and built an entirely new ventilator
00:11:37.200 called the Covent in 10 days.
00:11:41.760 Dyson, you know, Dyson, the founder,
00:11:46.220 is, you know, sort of a genius inventor
00:11:47.860 and their company is well-designed
00:11:50.040 for prototyping and rapidly building stuff.
00:11:52.500 That's what they do.
00:11:53.640 In 10 days, they designed and built
00:11:56.480 their own ventilator.
00:11:59.500 Now, you've seen a bunch of stories
00:12:01.160 about somebody made one for like 100 bucks,
00:12:03.760 you know, from parts,
00:12:04.920 and somebody else showed you
00:12:05.900 how you could do it
00:12:06.600 with this part and that part.
00:12:07.640 So the human ingenuity
00:12:09.600 that's going into just the ventilators
00:12:12.420 is just incredible.
00:12:15.480 You know, just that one little area,
00:12:16.880 and then you look at the creativity
00:12:19.000 and ingenuity that's going into making masks
00:12:21.400 and sourcing them.
00:12:23.120 It's incredible.
00:12:24.820 It's just incredible.
00:12:26.140 And, you know, we're going to learn
00:12:28.420 so much about this,
00:12:30.200 learn about how to work with each other,
00:12:31.920 learn how to make new stuff,
00:12:33.320 learn how to do things in a crisis.
00:12:34.680 Because our human learning
00:12:38.280 is off the charts.
00:12:41.600 You know, the number of people
00:12:42.540 who cross-pollinated,
00:12:43.700 the experts who had to talk to each other,
00:12:46.080 it's really incredible.
00:12:50.380 Who told you that it's more likely
00:12:52.520 at least some of us will go back
00:12:54.400 to week in weeks, not months?
00:12:57.480 That was me.
00:12:58.220 I think it's going to be somewhere
00:12:59.140 in between weeks and months.
00:13:00.840 But I was telling you
00:13:02.100 it would be on the lower end,
00:13:03.340 largely because I had some optimism
00:13:04.900 about the pills,
00:13:05.960 which we do not have in quantity yet.
00:13:09.420 I also am predicting
00:13:10.600 that the recovery will be fast
00:13:12.460 once it starts.
00:13:13.940 So that one you can wait for,
00:13:15.580 but that one will be right.
00:13:17.900 And here's my,
00:13:19.820 if I can say so,
00:13:22.380 the,
00:13:22.780 my,
00:13:25.000 I think my most precise prediction
00:13:27.340 was that I said two days ago
00:13:31.680 that you should see
00:13:32.860 in the next 48 hours,
00:13:34.740 which is the last two days,
00:13:36.880 the death rate in New York
00:13:38.400 start to,
00:13:39.060 start to level off
00:13:40.440 and maybe drop
00:13:42.120 and start turning back towards zero.
00:13:44.340 And the hypothesis was
00:13:46.080 that they now had enough
00:13:47.160 of the,
00:13:47.960 of the,
00:13:49.240 the Trump bills,
00:13:50.400 the,
00:13:50.560 the hydroxychloroquine,
00:13:52.800 et cetera,
00:13:53.680 that it would start making a difference
00:13:54.940 in their death rate.
00:13:56.140 And I think,
00:13:58.340 I need to,
00:13:59.400 I need this to confirm,
00:14:01.040 but I feel as though
00:14:02.300 the death rate was going up,
00:14:03.840 up,
00:14:03.980 up,
00:14:04.260 and that actually
00:14:05.020 in the last two days,
00:14:06.160 it just,
00:14:06.800 the,
00:14:07.100 the rate of increase
00:14:08.580 just fell off sharply.
00:14:10.460 So I believe it's still going up,
00:14:12.420 but the,
00:14:13.260 but the slope just bent.
00:14:16.280 That's exactly what I told you
00:14:17.700 would happen
00:14:18.060 within a 48 hour period
00:14:19.520 based on a specific reason,
00:14:21.380 the,
00:14:21.620 the meds coming in
00:14:22.900 and it looks like it happened.
00:14:25.260 Now I need a,
00:14:25.720 I need a fact check on that
00:14:26.900 because easily today
00:14:27.800 it could be opposite.
00:14:28.800 You know,
00:14:29.000 you have to watch every day
00:14:29.920 on these things,
00:14:30.740 but I think I'm right about that.
00:14:33.140 So that's a good sign.
00:14:37.400 So yesterday,
00:14:38.800 you know,
00:14:39.500 I always talk about
00:14:40.120 this simulation
00:14:40.860 winking at me
00:14:41.680 and there,
00:14:44.360 there's one TV show
00:14:45.440 called Modern,
00:14:46.260 Modern Family
00:14:46.940 that whenever I turn that on,
00:14:49.180 I swear to God,
00:14:50.000 it looks like they looked
00:14:50.980 at my,
00:14:51.420 my life
00:14:52.160 and then they wrote
00:14:53.380 a script about
00:14:54.140 all the little things
00:14:54.960 that were bugging me
00:14:55.720 and they put it in the show.
00:14:57.760 The Curb Your Enthusiasm
00:14:59.420 does the same thing.
00:15:00.560 Now that's not what's happening.
00:15:02.060 It's just that the writers
00:15:03.320 are good
00:15:03.960 at finding those little
00:15:05.660 parts of life
00:15:06.720 that people don't talk about
00:15:08.420 but we're all feeling.
00:15:09.780 So great writing
00:15:11.180 is what's really behind it.
00:15:13.220 But I turned on the TV
00:15:14.680 last night
00:15:15.240 to try to forget
00:15:16.180 about the COVID
00:15:17.000 virus thing.
00:15:18.840 I'd spend all day
00:15:20.760 on, you know,
00:15:22.340 between the times
00:15:23.240 that you see me
00:15:23.920 publicly here doing this,
00:15:25.940 I'm working all day.
00:15:27.700 I mean,
00:15:27.960 I'm working hard
00:15:28.620 at trying to connect people
00:15:29.940 to figure stuff out,
00:15:31.600 you know,
00:15:31.980 advise people,
00:15:32.860 move things along.
00:15:34.060 There's just a ton
00:15:35.080 happening under the hood
00:15:36.580 that you'll never know about
00:15:37.960 but it's,
00:15:39.040 there's a lot of energy
00:15:40.400 happening when you're
00:15:41.220 not watching.
00:15:43.140 But I wanted to get
00:15:44.180 that out of my mind
00:15:44.900 before bed
00:15:45.440 so I just randomly
00:15:46.540 picked a show
00:15:48.140 I would record it.
00:15:49.160 It was a Modern Family
00:15:49.960 episode from,
00:15:50.920 I don't know,
00:15:51.240 weeks ago,
00:15:51.840 well before this,
00:15:53.300 well before the crisis.
00:15:55.120 And I turned it on
00:15:55.800 and there's a scene
00:15:56.520 there with one
00:15:57.400 of the characters
00:15:58.020 saying that
00:15:59.660 somebody had done
00:16:00.880 something to deny
00:16:02.100 malaria pills
00:16:03.060 to doctors.
00:16:04.360 So now doctors
00:16:05.540 wouldn't have enough
00:16:06.260 malaria pills.
00:16:07.820 And I'm looking at this
00:16:08.680 and I'm thinking,
00:16:09.560 did I just spend
00:16:11.080 my entire day
00:16:12.280 worried about doctors
00:16:14.440 not having access
00:16:15.400 to malaria pills?
00:16:17.420 And then I turned on
00:16:18.520 the only TV show
00:16:19.460 I turned on.
00:16:19.980 It wasn't like
00:16:20.420 I watched TV all day
00:16:21.540 except for the news
00:16:22.300 I watched all day.
00:16:23.320 But it's the only
00:16:24.040 entertainment I had
00:16:24.860 that day.
00:16:25.880 And I turned it on
00:16:26.980 and the characters
00:16:28.200 is making fun
00:16:29.360 of somebody
00:16:29.860 who did something
00:16:31.460 which would have
00:16:32.020 some effect
00:16:32.680 on the supply
00:16:33.500 of malaria pills
00:16:34.560 to doctors.
00:16:36.340 And I'm thinking,
00:16:37.880 now of course
00:16:38.600 I know it's a coincidence.
00:16:39.540 You know,
00:16:40.260 I'm not,
00:16:40.760 I'm not saying
00:16:41.460 it's magic.
00:16:42.300 But what a mind-boggler
00:16:43.560 of that was.
00:16:47.800 The,
00:16:48.600 speaking of innovation,
00:16:50.760 I keep hearing
00:16:51.640 story after story
00:16:52.620 about the
00:16:53.240 technology
00:16:54.440 for rapidly
00:16:55.260 testing
00:16:55.900 for the virus
00:16:57.540 is improving
00:16:58.660 in a whole bunch
00:16:59.200 of places.
00:17:00.120 So now you have
00:17:01.220 the home test
00:17:02.560 which
00:17:03.060 it was probably
00:17:04.280 being limited
00:17:04.880 by the FDA
00:17:05.580 still I think.
00:17:06.900 So you've got
00:17:07.180 the home test,
00:17:07.940 you've got the one
00:17:08.420 in the office
00:17:08.920 that you can get
00:17:09.620 a result in 45 minutes.
00:17:11.060 Somebody else
00:17:12.320 is working on one
00:17:13.120 that gives you
00:17:13.740 something in half an hour.
00:17:15.560 South Korea
00:17:16.340 is now,
00:17:17.140 has in the field
00:17:18.340 a phone booth
00:17:19.760 sized
00:17:20.400 testing device
00:17:21.880 that you walk
00:17:22.500 in there
00:17:22.880 and get tested.
00:17:24.320 Now,
00:17:25.480 this is just me.
00:17:27.860 But if you said,
00:17:28.760 hey,
00:17:29.000 we've got this
00:17:29.620 phone booth
00:17:30.540 sized thing,
00:17:31.860 go in there
00:17:32.880 and you can get,
00:17:34.220 administer the test.
00:17:35.840 The first thing
00:17:36.400 I'm going to say
00:17:36.880 to myself is,
00:17:38.060 you mean the
00:17:38.640 phone booth
00:17:39.240 sized thing
00:17:40.020 that every infected
00:17:41.520 person in Seoul
00:17:42.460 has just walked
00:17:43.200 into to get tested?
00:17:44.640 That's the tiny
00:17:45.560 little space
00:17:46.360 that you would like
00:17:47.560 me to go into
00:17:48.340 next to get tested?
00:17:49.900 No thank you.
00:17:51.060 No thank you.
00:17:51.820 Maybe I'll test
00:17:52.400 at home.
00:17:53.360 But,
00:17:53.860 I'm sure the South Koreans
00:17:54.860 have figured that out
00:17:55.880 so I doubt
00:17:56.360 there's a real risk.
00:17:57.840 But,
00:17:58.180 psychologically,
00:17:59.640 I would not go
00:18:00.820 in a phone booth
00:18:01.620 immediately after
00:18:02.700 somebody who was
00:18:03.460 also testing
00:18:04.320 to see if they
00:18:04.960 had a deadly
00:18:05.520 disease.
00:18:06.920 That's just me.
00:18:09.560 Here's a question
00:18:10.360 I asked.
00:18:12.740 I said,
00:18:14.080 if following
00:18:14.860 FDA guidelines,
00:18:16.700 and the context
00:18:17.680 here is giving
00:18:18.760 people the
00:18:20.140 hashtag
00:18:21.140 Trump pills,
00:18:22.700 if you're new,
00:18:23.440 that's the
00:18:23.920 hydroxychloroquine.
00:18:27.560 So,
00:18:28.140 if a doctor
00:18:28.500 gives somebody
00:18:29.200 the pills
00:18:30.000 and the FDA
00:18:30.900 says don't do 1.00
00:18:31.800 that,
00:18:33.260 now the FDA
00:18:33.960 is not saying
00:18:34.560 it's unsafe,
00:18:36.200 the FDA
00:18:36.740 is putting
00:18:37.220 a gating
00:18:38.860 factor on it,
00:18:39.840 obviously,
00:18:40.400 because of the
00:18:40.880 shortage.
00:18:41.800 So,
00:18:42.080 you should not
00:18:42.560 look at the
00:18:43.080 FDA in this
00:18:43.880 context as
00:18:44.660 being dumb
00:18:45.420 old bureaucrats
00:18:48.220 who just can't
00:18:49.440 get out of the
00:18:49.880 way.
00:18:50.360 It looks like
00:18:51.180 the FDA is
00:18:52.020 intentionally
00:18:52.680 slowing it
00:18:53.420 down by
00:18:54.860 saying that
00:18:55.640 it has to be
00:18:56.740 used in a
00:18:57.280 hospital clinical
00:18:58.120 setting.
00:18:59.200 Obviously,
00:18:59.780 that's because
00:19:00.240 of shortage,
00:19:01.420 because those
00:19:01.840 are the
00:19:02.160 critical places.
00:19:03.080 So,
00:19:04.200 let's say
00:19:04.500 the FDA
00:19:05.040 says,
00:19:05.820 doctor,
00:19:06.780 you regular
00:19:07.540 doctor in
00:19:08.200 your regular
00:19:08.660 practice,
00:19:09.920 you should
00:19:10.360 not,
00:19:10.920 according to
00:19:11.460 the FDA,
00:19:13.000 you cannot
00:19:13.980 prescribe this
00:19:15.020 drug to
00:19:15.500 somebody who
00:19:15.980 just has
00:19:16.440 symptoms,
00:19:17.900 but has
00:19:18.340 not been
00:19:18.740 tested.
00:19:20.380 What does
00:19:21.060 the doctor
00:19:21.480 do in that
00:19:21.980 situation?
00:19:23.280 Well,
00:19:23.660 of course,
00:19:24.140 the doctor
00:19:24.680 oath is
00:19:25.240 do no
00:19:25.700 harm.
00:19:26.880 You can't
00:19:27.300 harm somebody.
00:19:27.960 So,
00:19:28.820 you're a
00:19:29.060 doctor,
00:19:29.500 and in
00:19:29.900 your hand
00:19:30.320 you're
00:19:30.520 holding,
00:19:31.560 this is
00:19:32.320 figurative.
00:19:33.920 They would
00:19:34.340 have to
00:19:34.600 write a
00:19:34.860 prescription
00:19:35.260 for it,
00:19:35.760 but let's
00:19:35.980 say you
00:19:36.240 lived in
00:19:36.540 a town
00:19:36.840 where they're
00:19:37.260 not out
00:19:37.680 of it yet.
00:19:38.100 There are
00:19:38.280 some towns
00:19:38.720 where they're
00:19:39.120 not out
00:19:39.520 of it.
00:19:40.480 You're a
00:19:41.020 doctor,
00:19:42.000 you've got
00:19:42.380 this pill
00:19:42.780 in your
00:19:43.060 hand,
00:19:43.760 and you
00:19:44.360 are almost
00:19:45.580 positive that
00:19:47.540 it's the
00:19:47.880 right thing
00:19:48.280 to do,
00:19:49.260 because the
00:19:49.900 side effects
00:19:50.400 are minimal,
00:19:51.520 the risk
00:19:52.080 is gigantic,
00:19:53.420 the cost
00:19:54.120 of the drug
00:19:54.600 is 20 bucks,
00:19:55.440 of course
00:19:57.280 you're going
00:19:57.680 to give it
00:19:58.060 to your
00:19:58.540 patient.
00:19:59.300 Of course.
00:20:00.000 And in
00:20:00.280 fact,
00:20:01.000 every doctor
00:20:01.840 who actually
00:20:02.340 has access
00:20:02.880 to the drug
00:20:03.300 is doing
00:20:03.620 just that.
00:20:04.440 So basically
00:20:05.020 100% of
00:20:05.760 doctors,
00:20:06.340 in my
00:20:06.640 opinion,
00:20:07.780 can't verify
00:20:08.420 this,
00:20:09.480 but in my
00:20:10.020 opinion,
00:20:10.660 100% of
00:20:11.440 doctors are
00:20:11.980 prescribing
00:20:12.520 the drug
00:20:13.080 to people
00:20:14.120 who just
00:20:14.540 have symptoms
00:20:15.120 and no
00:20:15.500 test,
00:20:16.400 even though
00:20:16.860 the FDA
00:20:17.280 is saying
00:20:17.660 don't do
00:20:18.040 that.
00:20:19.580 Now,
00:20:20.440 here's my
00:20:20.920 question.
00:20:21.400 Suppose the
00:20:21.800 FDA came
00:20:22.440 later and
00:20:22.960 said,
00:20:23.260 hey,
00:20:23.620 you violated
00:20:24.360 a guideline,
00:20:25.100 we're going
00:20:25.360 to yank
00:20:26.520 your medical
00:20:27.080 license.
00:20:27.760 I don't
00:20:27.960 know,
00:20:28.300 who knows
00:20:28.920 if that's
00:20:29.280 even a
00:20:29.620 thing.
00:20:30.000 I don't
00:20:30.180 know how
00:20:30.440 the process
00:20:30.880 works.
00:20:31.780 But let's
00:20:32.060 say it
00:20:32.260 is a
00:20:32.500 thing.
00:20:34.000 What
00:20:34.440 defense
00:20:34.920 would the
00:20:35.300 doctor
00:20:35.600 have?
00:20:37.420 Well,
00:20:37.820 two
00:20:37.960 defenses.
00:20:39.040 One
00:20:39.520 defense,
00:20:40.660 and apparently
00:20:42.800 this has been
00:20:43.320 used in
00:20:43.720 other contexts
00:20:44.440 before,
00:20:45.300 is that
00:20:46.180 it's a
00:20:46.760 necessity.
00:20:48.600 So you
00:20:49.240 can do
00:20:49.580 something that's
00:20:50.200 against the
00:20:50.740 law if
00:20:52.040 it's also
00:20:52.560 a necessity
00:20:53.260 to save
00:20:54.180 someone's
00:20:54.580 life or
00:20:55.020 attempt to
00:20:55.540 save
00:20:55.700 someone's
00:20:56.080 life.
00:20:56.800 So as
00:20:57.120 long as
00:20:57.420 it's a
00:20:57.720 necessity
00:20:58.200 and your
00:20:59.780 intentions are
00:21:00.520 clean and
00:21:01.460 the reasoning
00:21:02.240 is clean and
00:21:03.820 at least
00:21:04.300 everything about
00:21:04.920 what you're
00:21:05.240 doing is
00:21:05.580 clean,
00:21:06.120 nobody's
00:21:06.460 doubting why
00:21:06.980 you're doing
00:21:07.380 it or what
00:21:07.780 you're doing
00:21:08.140 it,
00:21:08.740 you can
00:21:09.400 break the
00:21:09.820 law if
00:21:11.480 you're saving
00:21:11.900 a life.
00:21:12.680 It's some
00:21:13.280 dumb law that 0.99
00:21:14.100 didn't anticipate
00:21:15.000 the situation
00:21:15.740 sort of thing.
00:21:17.360 So you've
00:21:17.660 got that
00:21:17.980 defense.
00:21:18.780 But I would
00:21:19.140 say the
00:21:19.480 greater defense
00:21:20.300 doesn't need
00:21:21.180 a court.
00:21:22.360 The greater
00:21:22.840 defense is
00:21:23.620 I'm a
00:21:24.220 doctor.
00:21:25.440 That should
00:21:26.000 be a
00:21:26.240 complete
00:21:26.520 defense.
00:21:27.660 Because the
00:21:28.240 doctors we
00:21:29.080 entrust to
00:21:30.340 make hard
00:21:30.920 decisions that
00:21:31.900 are risky for
00:21:32.840 the patient but
00:21:33.400 also risky for
00:21:34.120 the doctor.
00:21:35.200 If a doctor
00:21:35.980 makes the
00:21:36.400 mistake, that's
00:21:37.540 not free.
00:21:38.900 So the
00:21:39.140 doctor's got a
00:21:39.840 lot of skin in
00:21:40.700 the game.
00:21:41.280 A lot of skin
00:21:42.320 in the game.
00:21:42.960 That's who you
00:21:43.360 want.
00:21:43.740 You want somebody
00:21:44.280 who's got a
00:21:44.700 lot of risk
00:21:45.320 with you.
00:21:46.620 Same kind of
00:21:47.700 risk in the
00:21:48.640 same domain.
00:21:49.260 And here's
00:21:51.600 my defense for
00:21:52.360 any doctor who
00:21:53.300 prescribes it
00:21:54.220 against FDA
00:21:55.540 deadlines.
00:21:57.020 Do no harm.
00:21:58.580 Do no harm.
00:21:59.920 If you know
00:22:00.440 that not giving
00:22:01.160 it to somebody
00:22:01.800 is going to
00:22:02.900 cause them harm
00:22:03.680 or probably,
00:22:05.500 you sort of
00:22:06.060 have to do it.
00:22:06.920 So I would say
00:22:07.460 that the ethical
00:22:09.460 requirements of
00:22:11.240 being a doctor
00:22:11.880 are very clear
00:22:14.120 in this situation.
00:22:15.320 And in fact,
00:22:16.000 that's why doctors
00:22:16.660 are acting that
00:22:17.800 way, as you
00:22:18.720 would hope.
00:22:19.820 All right.
00:22:21.780 I've said before
00:22:22.820 and I'll say it
00:22:23.340 again, I keep
00:22:24.040 hearing people say
00:22:25.000 people are
00:22:25.760 prescribing it to
00:22:26.580 their family
00:22:27.100 members and
00:22:28.460 medical professionals
00:22:30.360 are effectively
00:22:31.260 hoarding it for
00:22:32.140 themselves.
00:22:33.460 Now, I wouldn't
00:22:34.740 want them to
00:22:35.460 overhoard, but
00:22:37.700 nonetheless it is
00:22:38.560 true that the
00:22:39.260 medical professionals
00:22:40.060 are the most
00:22:40.860 important people
00:22:41.700 because if they
00:22:42.420 stay healthy,
00:22:43.500 there's a
00:22:43.860 multiplier effect
00:22:44.700 of the people
00:22:45.240 that they can
00:22:45.760 help.
00:22:46.740 But I would
00:22:47.200 argue that
00:22:47.660 their families
00:22:48.300 cannot be
00:22:49.400 separated from
00:22:50.160 that equation.
00:22:51.520 You can't
00:22:51.980 expect your
00:22:52.560 doctor to
00:22:53.140 go to work
00:22:53.700 and work
00:22:54.740 his 18-hour
00:22:55.440 day if he
00:22:56.680 thinks his
00:22:57.180 wife is dying
00:22:58.080 back at the
00:22:58.660 house because
00:22:59.180 she doesn't
00:22:59.540 have a
00:22:59.860 prescription.
00:23:01.640 And you
00:23:02.060 could just
00:23:02.420 easily write
00:23:02.980 that prescription
00:23:03.620 and save
00:23:04.320 your spouse's
00:23:05.280 life.
00:23:06.360 It's just
00:23:07.100 not reasonable
00:23:09.080 to separate
00:23:10.560 the professionals
00:23:12.040 who can have
00:23:12.920 the meds
00:23:13.380 from their
00:23:14.340 spouses and
00:23:15.020 immediate
00:23:15.300 families and
00:23:15.980 say, well,
00:23:16.260 they can't.
00:23:17.720 If you want
00:23:18.280 the medical
00:23:19.600 professionals to
00:23:20.460 be effective,
00:23:23.120 you've got to
00:23:23.740 treat that as a
00:23:24.400 team, unfortunately.
00:23:25.600 I mean, maybe
00:23:26.040 you don't want
00:23:26.520 that to be true,
00:23:27.220 but I think it's
00:23:27.760 the smartest
00:23:28.780 thing to do
00:23:29.440 statistically.
00:23:30.220 likewise, we
00:23:34.460 just heard that
00:23:35.560 a member of
00:23:37.020 the squad,
00:23:40.140 Ayanna
00:23:40.860 Presley,
00:23:42.200 apparently
00:23:42.880 she's also
00:23:45.360 got some
00:23:45.860 symptoms.
00:23:47.280 They're in
00:23:47.900 Massachusetts and
00:23:48.880 can't get a
00:23:49.720 test.
00:23:50.700 So like
00:23:51.140 everybody else,
00:23:52.080 she has to
00:23:52.560 wait for a
00:23:52.980 test while she 0.90
00:23:53.620 has symptoms.
00:23:55.340 This will be
00:23:56.160 unpopular with
00:23:57.420 you, but I
00:23:58.000 think she should
00:23:58.640 go to the
00:23:58.980 front of the
00:23:59.420 line.
00:24:00.220 I think
00:24:00.920 Congress,
00:24:02.600 first responders,
00:24:04.340 Congress,
00:24:05.700 medical
00:24:07.020 professionals,
00:24:07.920 their families,
00:24:08.560 I do think
00:24:09.080 they need to
00:24:09.500 be top
00:24:09.840 priority because
00:24:11.180 again, it's a
00:24:11.920 leverage thing.
00:24:12.900 Yeah, yeah, you
00:24:13.600 don't like Ayanna 0.98
00:24:14.560 Presley's politics.
00:24:15.820 I get that.
00:24:16.900 I get that.
00:24:17.520 But you need
00:24:18.000 the Congress at
00:24:19.240 least to be on
00:24:20.460 the ball.
00:24:21.680 So I think
00:24:22.880 Congress should
00:24:23.460 go to the front
00:24:23.960 of the line.
00:24:25.020 As a citizen, I
00:24:26.120 would support that
00:24:26.840 even at my own
00:24:27.640 risk.
00:24:27.940 I think that's
00:24:28.480 the better
00:24:28.880 choice.
00:24:32.900 Let's see, what
00:24:33.640 else we got
00:24:34.060 here?
00:24:40.160 So I
00:24:40.800 tweeted, if
00:24:41.620 anybody knows
00:24:42.300 this, I'm
00:24:43.540 looking for
00:24:44.140 somebody in
00:24:44.800 the state of
00:24:45.540 Texas, so an
00:24:47.200 actual Texan who
00:24:48.280 lives there, not
00:24:48.960 somebody who
00:24:49.620 knows one, but I
00:24:51.240 want to hear from
00:24:51.680 an actual Texan
00:24:52.520 who's had this
00:24:53.020 experience.
00:24:53.500 So they've
00:24:54.820 had symptoms of
00:24:56.040 the coronavirus, and
00:24:57.400 the doctor prescribed
00:24:59.500 the Trump pills, the
00:25:00.580 hydroxychloroquine, but
00:25:02.600 the pharmacy wouldn't
00:25:03.440 give it to them.
00:25:04.400 So we're looking for a
00:25:06.040 test case.
00:25:07.480 So give me a test
00:25:08.580 case of a Texan who
00:25:10.200 had coronavirus
00:25:10.780 symptoms, went to a
00:25:12.000 doctor, the doctor
00:25:12.820 prescribed the meds, but
00:25:15.220 the pharmacy wouldn't
00:25:16.200 give it to them because
00:25:17.080 of FDA rules.
00:25:18.500 If you can give me an
00:25:19.760 example of a person, we
00:25:22.220 will break the
00:25:22.940 system.
00:25:23.840 It will help.
00:25:28.120 A follower on
00:25:29.840 Twitter said the
00:25:31.120 following, growing up
00:25:32.720 in Nigeria, I can't 0.97
00:25:34.580 count the number of
00:25:35.360 times I took
00:25:36.100 chloroquine, which
00:25:37.140 is a slightly
00:25:39.160 weaker version of
00:25:40.520 the hydroxychloroquine,
00:25:41.860 because if you had a
00:25:43.180 fever, that's what the
00:25:44.240 doctor gave.
00:25:45.560 Only if you didn't
00:25:46.300 recover did you get
00:25:47.220 tested for anything.
00:25:48.920 So in Nigeria, they 1.00
00:25:49.980 would just hand them
00:25:50.540 out like M&Ms if you 0.62
00:25:51.700 had a fever.
00:25:52.220 And if it didn't
00:25:53.400 work, well, maybe
00:25:55.120 we'll look into it.
00:25:56.320 In the United States,
00:25:57.140 we're doing it
00:25:57.600 backwards.
00:25:58.720 You have to have a
00:25:59.420 test, or we can't
00:26:00.800 give you the drugs.
00:26:01.520 Now, of course, the
00:26:02.140 reason is that that
00:26:04.120 requirement is to
00:26:05.420 slow down, unfortunately,
00:26:07.380 it's to slow down the
00:26:08.220 access to the drug,
00:26:09.740 obviously because of a
00:26:10.900 shortage.
00:26:14.500 I saw a picture of the
00:26:17.000 legislators in Congress
00:26:18.380 working to try to pass
00:26:20.300 the relief bill, which
00:26:21.520 is maybe some of the
00:26:22.780 worst work that
00:26:23.880 Congress has ever done
00:26:24.880 in the history of
00:26:25.560 Congress, and I'm
00:26:27.260 counting both Republicans
00:26:28.460 and Democrats, because
00:26:30.000 collectively, if they
00:26:31.620 produce a bad product,
00:26:32.720 as they did, you can't
00:26:35.700 give any of them a pass.
00:26:37.020 They work together, and
00:26:38.300 they succeed together, and
00:26:40.200 they fail together, and
00:26:41.120 they fail together this
00:26:42.680 time.
00:26:42.920 Now, psychologically, maybe
00:26:46.440 it didn't matter too much
00:26:47.340 what the details were.
00:26:49.060 Psychologically, the
00:26:49.820 economy needed this
00:26:50.920 stimulus, it needed a
00:26:52.720 fast, so it probably is
00:26:54.600 more important that
00:26:56.400 action happened than the
00:26:58.520 details of the action.
00:26:59.940 So, we probably ended up
00:27:02.720 in the best of the bad
00:27:04.360 choices.
00:27:05.040 The best choice was to do
00:27:07.000 it quickly and smartly.
00:27:10.100 Well, we didn't give
00:27:11.020 smartly, that wasn't an
00:27:12.900 option, apparently, our
00:27:13.760 Congress can't give us
00:27:14.740 smartly, but they did
00:27:16.440 give us kind of quick.
00:27:19.000 You know, it took a week
00:27:19.580 longer than it should,
00:27:20.520 but, you know, things
00:27:21.860 take long, times sometimes.
00:27:24.860 So, I think it was a
00:27:27.080 horrible job, and they 0.69
00:27:29.300 all get failing grades,
00:27:30.340 and they should all lose
00:27:31.120 their jobs.
00:27:32.180 But action is better than
00:27:33.340 no action, so I think
00:27:34.560 the markets responded, and
00:27:36.800 it'll end up positive, even
00:27:38.820 though it's a complete
00:27:39.880 abomination.
00:27:42.540 But here's the thing.
00:27:43.940 Somebody showed some
00:27:44.900 pictures on Twitter of
00:27:46.920 the legislators all
00:27:48.360 standing too close
00:27:49.300 together, and I thought
00:27:51.140 to myself, my God,
00:27:54.420 really?
00:27:56.160 Congresses today, or
00:27:57.980 last night, they're still
00:27:59.500 bunching up in little
00:28:00.460 groups when some of them
00:28:02.120 are actually testing
00:28:03.020 positive already, and it's
00:28:04.340 an emergency, and we need
00:28:05.380 them at their best.
00:28:06.200 There was no way they
00:28:07.040 could solve that.
00:28:07.700 It felt like Joe Biden
00:28:09.180 not being able to figure
00:28:10.280 out how to use his phone
00:28:11.460 to live stream.
00:28:13.600 Didn't it feel like that?
00:28:15.060 It felt like we were
00:28:16.020 watching a whole bunch of
00:28:16.980 incompetent, bumbling
00:28:18.300 people who couldn't get
00:28:20.020 the most basic, basic
00:28:22.640 element of life in 2020
00:28:24.900 right, which is stay the
00:28:26.100 hell away from the other
00:28:27.060 persons.
00:28:28.320 Really?
00:28:28.840 You couldn't get that
00:28:29.480 right?
00:28:30.080 I mean, your confidence in
00:28:31.520 them has to drop when you
00:28:32.760 see that.
00:28:33.760 Now, I get that it's an
00:28:34.900 emergency, and they probably
00:28:37.240 felt like they needed to
00:28:38.200 be in the same room, but
00:28:40.540 at least don't let any
00:28:41.320 cameras in there.
00:28:42.660 At the very least, don't
00:28:44.540 let somebody take a
00:28:45.380 picture of it.
00:28:47.160 How are we supposed to
00:28:48.220 feel confident?
00:28:49.320 Because that's important.
00:28:50.180 You've got to feel
00:28:50.600 confident in your
00:28:51.400 leadership during a
00:28:52.180 crisis.
00:28:52.880 How in the world do you
00:28:53.800 feel confident about
00:28:54.740 that when you watch
00:28:56.120 these idiots doing 0.93
00:28:57.960 exactly what everyone
00:28:59.240 says they shouldn't do?
00:29:00.220 All right.
00:29:04.600 I think that the entire
00:29:06.240 game just came down to
00:29:09.120 Trump pills and
00:29:11.520 hydroxychloroquine.
00:29:13.000 If you're talking about
00:29:14.040 the number of
00:29:14.620 ventilators, it's because
00:29:17.060 we don't have enough of
00:29:18.080 the pills.
00:29:18.960 If we had the pills, at
00:29:20.480 least anecdotally, all of
00:29:22.040 the information suggests
00:29:23.100 that the number of
00:29:23.840 ventilators you need would
00:29:24.960 plunge, like a lot.
00:29:27.360 So, do we have a
00:29:29.460 ventilator shortage?
00:29:31.600 On some nominal sense,
00:29:33.160 yes.
00:29:34.220 But we wouldn't have a
00:29:35.360 shortage if we also had
00:29:36.380 the pills.
00:29:37.500 So, here's my question.
00:29:39.580 I said to myself, who
00:29:40.560 makes these pills?
00:29:41.440 So, we've got at least
00:29:42.500 one, maybe two companies
00:29:44.140 in the United States who,
00:29:46.000 quote, make the pills.
00:29:48.880 All right.
00:29:49.200 One of them is, is it
00:29:51.020 Novartis?
00:29:52.420 I forget who it is.
00:29:54.240 So, probably didn't write
00:29:56.080 that down.
00:29:57.360 So, there's a company
00:29:58.160 that's making the pills.
00:30:01.260 And, I was just reading
00:30:03.960 up on them, and they
00:30:04.880 said that they've got
00:30:05.680 enough, they've got
00:30:07.120 enough raw materials or
00:30:08.660 supplies or whatever it
00:30:10.080 is to make the pills.
00:30:11.500 So, they're going to,
00:30:12.440 they're going to press up
00:30:13.720 50 million pills or
00:30:14.900 whatever it is and get
00:30:15.780 them out there in the
00:30:16.800 middle of April.
00:30:17.700 So, we're probably a
00:30:18.680 couple weeks away from
00:30:19.920 at least one big producer
00:30:22.040 producing them at scale.
00:30:24.160 And so, I go to
00:30:25.840 Wikipedia and I, and I,
00:30:27.140 and I thought, okay, but
00:30:29.860 what happens when they
00:30:30.660 run out of that raw
00:30:31.600 material?
00:30:32.960 Mylan.
00:30:33.460 Yes, thank you.
00:30:34.160 Mylan is the name of the
00:30:35.220 company that I was trying
00:30:36.780 to remember.
00:30:37.760 I think Novartis is doing
00:30:39.240 something else similar.
00:30:40.820 I don't know.
00:30:41.760 I, I saw Novartis on
00:30:43.400 something I tweeted.
00:30:44.200 So, what happens when
00:30:47.140 Mylan or whoever else is
00:30:48.540 making them domestically,
00:30:49.760 what happens when they
00:30:50.460 run out of the raw
00:30:52.400 material?
00:30:54.060 And what is it?
00:30:55.680 What's it made out?
00:30:56.500 What, what is, what is
00:30:57.560 the stuff you mix
00:30:58.520 together to make these
00:31:00.360 pills?
00:31:01.300 Is it a plant?
00:31:02.820 A mineral?
00:31:05.980 An oil?
00:31:07.060 What the hell is it?
00:31:08.740 Can somebody, can somebody
00:31:10.120 just tweet that at me?
00:31:11.580 So, so here's what I'm
00:31:12.780 getting at.
00:31:13.200 Should we be planting a
00:31:15.880 whole bunch of some kind
00:31:17.280 of plant?
00:31:18.960 Should we be making our
00:31:21.300 heavy equipment go dig
00:31:22.780 something out of the
00:31:23.460 ground?
00:31:24.660 Where the hell does it
00:31:25.480 come from?
00:31:26.440 And why don't we know
00:31:27.240 that?
00:31:27.980 Isn't, somebody says
00:31:30.620 Viagra is a good
00:31:31.520 substitute.
00:31:32.920 Well, I doubt that's
00:31:34.060 true medically, but it
00:31:35.580 would take your mind off
00:31:36.500 of things.
00:31:37.080 You got that.
00:31:38.120 You got that going for
00:31:39.320 you.
00:31:41.060 Somebody's confirming
00:31:41.940 that Novartis,
00:31:42.920 too, is in that
00:31:43.920 business.
00:31:44.760 Now, why don't, why
00:31:46.440 can't I easily find
00:31:47.640 that?
00:31:48.000 I spent only, you
00:31:49.600 know, 60 seconds
00:31:50.520 Googling it, but it
00:31:51.520 should have been the
00:31:51.980 top thing that came
00:31:52.640 out.
00:31:53.460 Shouldn't the story be
00:31:54.740 there's a drug called
00:31:56.320 this, it does these
00:31:57.860 things, it's made by
00:31:59.360 these companies, and
00:32:00.940 they use the raw
00:32:01.760 material X.
00:32:03.260 What is the raw
00:32:04.140 material?
00:32:05.620 What is it?
00:32:07.480 Can anybody answer
00:32:08.540 that question?
00:32:09.960 How are we at this
00:32:11.680 point, when we don't
00:32:13.980 even know what the raw
00:32:15.620 material is, somebody
00:32:17.800 says quinine, what the
00:32:18.760 hell is that?
00:32:19.360 That's not an answer to
00:32:20.180 my question.
00:32:21.080 Where does quinine come
00:32:22.180 from?
00:32:23.520 You know, is there a
00:32:24.460 lake of quinine somewhere?
00:32:25.940 Do you mine it?
00:32:26.960 Does it come out of a
00:32:27.620 plant?
00:32:28.080 I don't know.
00:32:28.960 Somebody says it's
00:32:29.720 synthetic.
00:32:31.400 But what's that mean?
00:32:33.400 Anything synthetic is
00:32:34.660 still made out of stuff.
00:32:36.560 What's the stuff?
00:32:39.860 Somebody says
00:32:40.640 hydrogen, oxygen, and
00:32:42.120 chlorine.
00:32:44.160 Is that true?
00:32:45.100 You sound like you
00:32:45.880 know what you're
00:32:46.240 talking about.
00:32:51.440 Yes, it's important
00:32:52.740 that we have sourcing
00:32:53.760 that is not controlled
00:32:54.760 by other countries.
00:32:56.860 Somebody says, I'm
00:32:58.100 looking at your
00:32:58.520 comments, and I assume
00:32:59.960 that most of them are
00:33:00.620 wrong.
00:33:01.440 Somebody says it's
00:33:02.280 some kind of tree
00:33:02.980 bark.
00:33:05.760 Oh, actually, several
00:33:07.760 people are saying it's
00:33:08.620 from tree bark.
00:33:10.960 Okay.
00:33:11.920 Question number two.
00:33:14.140 What kind of trees and
00:33:15.540 where do they grow?
00:33:17.060 Because you can't really
00:33:17.920 quickly grow some tree
00:33:19.260 bark, can you?
00:33:20.720 Or can you clone it?
00:33:22.620 Could you clone tree
00:33:23.960 bark?
00:33:25.580 Does that make sense?
00:33:26.980 Can you clone tree
00:33:27.840 bark?
00:33:28.260 I don't know.
00:33:30.180 Somebody says it's the
00:33:31.240 bark from the cinchona
00:33:32.780 tree.
00:33:33.360 Well, suppose that's
00:33:36.700 right.
00:33:38.100 Suppose it's the bark
00:33:39.240 from the cinchona tree.
00:33:41.600 Where do they grow?
00:33:44.040 I don't know if that's
00:33:45.000 right, by the way.
00:33:45.560 It's just something I'm
00:33:46.260 reading in the comments.
00:33:50.380 So let's Google that.
00:33:52.800 Oh, it does look
00:33:54.020 correct.
00:33:54.620 It's a genius of
00:33:55.720 flowering plants.
00:33:57.540 So cinchona is a
00:33:58.780 plant.
00:34:01.400 And what is it used
00:34:03.660 for?
00:34:04.000 Where do cinchona? 0.99
00:34:05.660 And then somebody else
00:34:06.480 says it's a tree.
00:34:09.740 It's native to the Andes
00:34:11.340 and grown in South
00:34:12.520 America, Indonesia,
00:34:15.420 and Congo.
00:34:16.520 The dried bark of the
00:34:17.860 trees is a source of
00:34:19.040 quinine and other
00:34:20.020 medicinal products.
00:34:21.920 So do all the
00:34:24.540 quinine, chloroquine,
00:34:27.140 hydroxychloroquine,
00:34:28.440 do they all come out of
00:34:29.320 the same tree bark?
00:34:30.980 Cinchona trees?
00:34:32.380 All right.
00:34:32.800 So this gets me to my
00:34:34.100 next point.
00:34:36.440 So the source of these
00:34:37.520 are the Andes and
00:34:39.340 grown in South
00:34:40.040 America.
00:34:41.000 I don't know
00:34:41.760 specifically what
00:34:42.720 country, but I'm
00:34:43.980 going to ask a very
00:34:44.780 adult question right
00:34:45.860 now.
00:34:46.600 Are you ready?
00:34:47.960 This is an adult
00:34:49.060 question.
00:34:49.560 Children are just
00:34:51.960 going to get mad.
00:34:53.160 So children, you
00:34:53.900 should just sign out
00:34:54.600 now.
00:34:55.640 Here's an adult
00:34:56.340 question.
00:34:58.140 What is the military
00:34:59.220 capability of the
00:35:01.480 countries that are
00:35:02.300 growing these trees?
00:35:05.540 See where I'm going?
00:35:08.400 Now, I believe these
00:35:09.900 countries are
00:35:10.520 friendly, sufficiently
00:35:11.820 friendly with the
00:35:12.600 United States that
00:35:13.840 they wouldn't try to
00:35:14.560 hurt us. 0.56
00:35:16.080 But they do have the
00:35:17.240 supply that the entire
00:35:18.400 world needs.
00:35:20.520 China's probably 0.98
00:35:21.220 willing to pay for
00:35:22.000 it.
00:35:23.240 Other countries are
00:35:24.280 willing to pay for
00:35:24.900 that bark.
00:35:26.180 It's in our
00:35:26.920 backyard.
00:35:28.480 If you imagine that
00:35:30.040 all of the Americas
00:35:30.900 are our backyard.
00:35:32.780 If our military, I'm
00:35:34.560 just going to say it
00:35:35.100 directly, if our
00:35:36.820 military needs to
00:35:37.920 secure the supply
00:35:39.320 for this hemisphere,
00:35:41.780 including South
00:35:42.460 America, if we went 0.71
00:35:43.420 down and stole the
00:35:45.200 supplies from South
00:35:46.180 America to use in 0.97
00:35:47.020 North America, we
00:35:48.100 should all be
00:35:48.520 shot, I mean, for
00:35:50.120 that, that would be
00:35:50.980 like a crime against
00:35:52.000 humanity of the
00:35:52.940 highest degree.
00:35:54.480 But, if there's
00:35:56.320 enough of it in the
00:35:57.340 Americas, and any of
00:35:59.560 that stuff is going to
00:36:00.560 another country outside
00:36:01.680 of the Americas, isn't
00:36:03.820 that a military
00:36:04.420 question?
00:36:05.860 Should our Marines
00:36:07.060 actually be assembling
00:36:09.160 off the shore of a
00:36:11.280 friendly, allied
00:36:12.340 country, just to make
00:36:14.480 sure that they're not
00:36:15.880 shipping this drug
00:36:16.700 outside of the
00:36:17.440 Americas?
00:36:19.420 Right?
00:36:20.660 Somebody says, stop.
00:36:22.520 Stop.
00:36:23.120 Do not suggest
00:36:23.820 military action.
00:36:25.300 It's an adult
00:36:26.160 question.
00:36:27.040 I'm not saying what
00:36:28.020 we should do.
00:36:29.400 What I'm saying is,
00:36:30.560 it's a military
00:36:31.520 issue.
00:36:33.180 If we're looking at
00:36:34.300 millions of deaths in
00:36:35.380 this hemisphere, because
00:36:36.880 that supply that has
00:36:37.980 grown in this
00:36:38.600 hemisphere is being
00:36:39.900 shipped to another
00:36:40.660 hemisphere, isn't that
00:36:43.580 a homeland security
00:36:44.500 problem?
00:36:45.640 Isn't that a military
00:36:46.620 problem?
00:36:47.880 Now, of course, of
00:36:49.380 course, the first, you
00:36:52.280 know, the first stage
00:36:53.060 of this is you contact
00:36:54.580 the suppliers, you, if
00:36:56.000 it's Peru, whoever it 0.86
00:36:57.240 is, and you say, hey,
00:36:58.500 Peru, can we keep this
00:37:00.500 in the Americas?
00:37:02.300 And Peru says,
00:37:03.080 absolutely.
00:37:03.680 We're not going to send 1.00
00:37:04.480 this outside of, you
00:37:05.500 know, North America,
00:37:06.780 South America.
00:37:07.640 Don't need to, don't
00:37:08.680 want to, plenty of
00:37:09.540 demand.
00:37:10.360 So the first choice is
00:37:12.880 you work productively with
00:37:14.240 allies and there should
00:37:15.160 be no military
00:37:15.820 anything, right?
00:37:17.220 But how much do you
00:37:19.160 think another country
00:37:20.380 in another part of the
00:37:23.280 world would be willing
00:37:24.220 to pay to get that
00:37:26.620 supply and take it away
00:37:27.800 from the Americas?
00:37:28.620 How much would they be
00:37:29.380 willing to pay for that?
00:37:30.700 A lot, right?
00:37:32.380 So the price that some
00:37:34.000 Peruvian company could
00:37:35.240 charge for a truckload of
00:37:37.740 this tree bark just went
00:37:40.040 through the roof.
00:37:41.640 So could we guarantee that
00:37:43.360 the people who run the
00:37:44.260 factories, even if the
00:37:45.540 governments are friendly
00:37:46.440 to us, even if the
00:37:47.420 governments say yes, even
00:37:48.940 if the governments say,
00:37:49.860 oh yeah, we would never
00:37:50.740 ship this out of the
00:37:51.460 country.
00:37:52.180 But what about the
00:37:53.080 factory, the farmer,
00:37:54.280 whoever is stripping the
00:37:55.660 trees?
00:37:57.120 Can you trust that guy?
00:37:58.880 Because he's going to get
00:37:59.800 some big offers from
00:38:01.520 places in other parts of
00:38:02.720 the country.
00:38:03.800 Well, here's my thing.
00:38:05.460 Can you trust the Peruvian 1.00
00:38:06.860 army?
00:38:07.800 And here I'm just using
00:38:08.760 Peru as a stand-in
00:38:10.040 country.
00:38:10.520 It's nothing about Peru.
00:38:11.780 It's just wherever they're
00:38:12.880 growing this supply.
00:38:15.200 Can you trust the Peruvian 1.00
00:38:17.220 military to not take a
00:38:18.400 bribe?
00:38:20.320 Nope.
00:38:21.400 No.
00:38:22.020 No, in South America,
00:38:23.100 you cannot trust anybody,
00:38:26.080 really, not to take a
00:38:27.060 bribe.
00:38:27.940 So if China says, hey, you
00:38:29.600 know, if you ship us a few
00:38:30.600 trucks to that tree bark,
00:38:32.520 you know, we'll grease your
00:38:33.680 pockets, politicians in
00:38:35.080 Peru, you know, military
00:38:36.700 leaders in Peru, well, what's
00:38:38.440 going to happen?
00:38:40.040 Well, if South America is
00:38:41.560 South America and it hasn't
00:38:42.660 changed lately, people take
00:38:44.560 bribes.
00:38:46.020 So, if you're in America, and
00:38:48.260 it might be a million lives
00:38:50.020 on the line, and the only
00:38:52.440 thing that could protect you
00:38:53.560 is that a South American you
00:38:55.480 could trust to not take a
00:38:56.880 bribe, is that the risk you
00:39:00.220 want to take?
00:39:01.920 I'm just saying, if we're not
00:39:03.400 already assembling troops to
00:39:06.580 at least be in the general
00:39:07.700 vicinity of where that tree
00:39:10.220 bark is, and again, I might
00:39:11.480 be, I'm like completely
00:39:12.960 wrong about that being the
00:39:14.240 only source, maybe there's
00:39:15.940 so much of this tree
00:39:17.000 everywhere that we don't
00:39:18.020 need any of this.
00:39:19.060 So, you know, I have to be
00:39:20.300 wildly fact-checked to make
00:39:22.340 sure any of this makes any
00:39:23.400 sense, so don't take any of
00:39:24.520 it too seriously.
00:39:25.760 I'm only going to put out one
00:39:27.060 point that I will die on.
00:39:28.700 So here's the hill I'm going
00:39:29.840 to die on.
00:39:30.420 And if we have sources, the
00:39:33.600 raw material sources for
00:39:35.200 this Trump pills, and we're
00:39:37.640 not at least putting a
00:39:39.240 military presence around
00:39:42.120 them, no matter who
00:39:43.520 controls them, if it's in our
00:39:45.200 domain, you know, our sphere
00:39:47.480 of influence, even though
00:39:48.640 it's not our country, it's a 1.00
00:39:51.200 military thing, isn't it?
00:39:53.560 Am I wrong?
00:39:54.480 That the adult thing to do
00:39:55.880 would say, well, I can't rely
00:39:58.460 on a Peruvian not to
00:40:00.400 take a bribe, so let's make
00:40:02.740 sure we get that tree bark
00:40:03.780 our way.
00:40:05.100 All right.
00:40:07.200 Somebody says calcium
00:40:08.260 phosphate is also in it.
00:40:10.180 I assume that's a mining
00:40:11.540 problem, right?
00:40:14.320 So there might be a little
00:40:15.440 tree bark, there might be
00:40:16.940 something that needs to be
00:40:18.320 mined, but from where?
00:40:25.360 Mules are switching from
00:40:26.680 coke to quinine.
00:40:27.900 Yeah, that may be.
00:40:30.400 Scott acts as if our
00:40:31.740 government has our best
00:40:33.140 interests in mind.
00:40:34.560 They don't.
00:40:36.160 Well, you know, during a
00:40:37.280 crisis, most of them do,
00:40:39.200 but you're right, there are
00:40:39.880 going to be a lot of
00:40:40.580 partisans who are just 0.97
00:40:41.540 going to improve their
00:40:43.500 situation.
00:40:45.280 It says trees are not
00:40:46.940 needed for the synthetic
00:40:48.260 stuff.
00:40:49.020 Okay.
00:40:49.740 So that would be an
00:40:50.960 important thing to fact
00:40:52.580 check.
00:40:52.860 So somebody's saying you
00:40:53.680 don't need the tree if you're
00:40:54.860 doing it synthetically, but
00:40:56.960 does the synthetic one work?
00:40:58.460 Is it exactly the same?
00:41:00.200 Is there any base chemicals
00:41:01.400 that we're short of to make
00:41:02.740 it synthetically?
00:41:03.660 Because that's made of
00:41:04.320 something, too.
00:41:05.400 Just because it's synthetic
00:41:06.520 doesn't mean you don't need
00:41:07.560 base materials.
00:41:11.560 Oh, now somebody's saying it
00:41:13.120 doesn't come from trees.
00:41:17.940 Somebody says they think you
00:41:19.120 can synthesize it.
00:41:20.100 All right, so the question
00:41:21.040 then goes to, if you can
00:41:23.260 synthesize it, and of what?
00:41:27.120 And is the thing you
00:41:28.180 synthesize from it also in
00:41:29.760 short demand?
00:41:30.500 Do we have it in our
00:41:31.260 hemisphere?
00:41:32.180 Can we protect it militarily?
00:41:34.380 So my only point is, the
00:41:36.840 military needs to protect
00:41:37.820 our sources.
00:41:39.800 All right.
00:41:44.740 Somebody says I'm barking up
00:41:46.320 the wrong tree.
00:41:47.740 Not bad.
00:41:48.380 Not bad.
00:41:51.240 Yeah, other people, it
00:41:52.780 seems, are weighing in.
00:41:54.040 A lot of people are saying
00:41:55.020 you don't need trees.
00:41:56.600 You can synthesize it.
00:41:58.560 I don't know what that
00:41:59.340 means.
00:41:59.920 I'm not a chemist.
00:42:01.420 So I'd need to know more
00:42:02.740 about what you're
00:42:03.420 synthesizing it from.
00:42:06.420 Somebody who seems smart
00:42:07.740 says chloroquine is not a
00:42:09.500 derivative of quinine.
00:42:11.400 So maybe all of this is
00:42:12.440 just wrong.
00:42:12.900 So let me not believe
00:42:19.580 anything I see in the
00:42:20.540 comments.
00:42:22.660 So I'm only making a
00:42:24.080 general statement.
00:42:25.160 So erase in your mind
00:42:26.520 anything I said about
00:42:27.540 Peru and anything I said
00:42:29.680 about tree bark.
00:42:31.560 Those are not important to
00:42:32.920 the point.
00:42:33.660 The point is that there may
00:42:35.040 be a shortage, there may be
00:42:36.120 some base materials, and if
00:42:38.240 we're not protecting them
00:42:39.180 militarily, we should.
00:42:40.940 That's all.
00:42:42.260 So whether it's
00:42:42.920 synthesized or tree bark,
00:42:44.280 same point.
00:42:48.560 Alright, that's what I've
00:42:49.580 got for now.
00:42:52.300 I need to get back to
00:42:53.540 work.
00:42:54.340 We've got a world to save.
00:42:56.700 I think we're on the
00:42:58.300 right track now.
00:42:59.780 Let's get it saved.
00:43:01.220 And I will talk to you
00:43:02.160 later.