Episode 878 Scott Adams: The Simultaneous Swaddle is Not Clinically Proven to Cure Coronavirus, But I Feel Good About it
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Summary
A doctor on the front lines of the fight against the coronavirus outbreak has some new information about how to deal with it, and how to prevent it from spreading to others. Plus, a conspiracy theory that China is a puppet of the WHO.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Hey, come on in here, Jeff. Do you have your blanket?
00:00:11.800
It's time to swaddle. Self-swaddling is in the house.
00:00:25.060
Well, come on in here and we'll answer your questions and talk about it.
00:00:28.920
So, yes, Greg Guffield's on, but so is your DVR.
00:00:35.940
Or you could watch this later, after you watch Greg Guffield.
00:00:42.700
Yes, we're in our soft blankets. We're feeling better about the coronavirus situation.
00:00:48.620
I was just watching a video from a doctor who was in the front lines in New York City,
00:00:56.160
So, he had some tips and information that I had not heard before, and I forget his name,
00:01:02.840
but he's an actual doctor working on the front lines, and he's intubating people and putting them on ventilators and all that stuff.
00:01:11.200
So, he seemed to know what he was talking about.
00:01:13.000
And here are the things he said that you sort of suspected were true, but you wondered in no particular order.
00:01:20.020
One was that he's not seen anybody under 14 who's having a problem, but he's definitely seeing people like in their 20s.
00:01:31.820
So, he says it's affecting all age groups, but, you know, the older you are, the worse.
00:01:37.460
But under 14, basically, he's saying we're just not seeing it.
00:01:43.380
The other good news is that he recommends wearing masks more than the recommendations you've been seeing up to now,
00:01:51.640
primarily so you don't touch your face, which is a good point.
00:01:55.460
I think the other point is if you happen to be asymptomatic shedding,
00:01:59.700
it would be good to have a mask on, too, if you're going outside.
00:02:04.360
But he had a very sort of an upbeat opinion of how we could manage this if we modified our behavior.
00:02:12.760
And his take was that the primary, primary, primary mode of transmission
00:02:19.540
was people touching something that people, somebody else had breathed on, you know, little droplets,
00:02:25.900
or sneezed on or coughed on or breathed on, and then touching their face soon after.
00:02:31.520
And he said if you could just take that part out,
00:02:35.460
you would remove so much of the transmission that it would basically be done.
00:02:44.380
I tell you, you watch a video about not touching your face,
00:02:47.300
and you're going to have the same problem I'm having right now,
00:02:49.020
which is really makes you want to touch your face.
00:02:51.160
So, but anyway, he suggested that if you wore masks, and that's just common sense,
00:03:05.100
The other thing he said, which directly counters one of the bad pieces of information
00:03:14.540
I'd read somebody said that when people go on ventilators,
00:03:18.720
that it's basically just the beginning of the end,
00:03:22.300
and that once you're on a ventilator, well, you're not going to make it, you know, except dead.
00:03:30.380
But this doctor said directly the opposite, directly the opposite.
00:03:34.700
He said we put you on the ventilator with the intention of getting you off the ventilator,
00:03:41.380
So directly opposite what I had heard from non-credible sources
00:03:47.620
is that if you get put on a ventilator, even as bad as that is,
00:03:53.840
apparently, you know, the strong majority of people get on the ventilator
00:04:02.360
Now, he didn't seem to, I don't remember him mentioning the hydroxychloroquine,
00:04:12.480
He also seemed to think that any kind of mask was better than none,
00:04:18.080
So are you following the weird disinformation coming out of the World Health Organization?
00:04:25.500
Apparently, you know, the people say that China is,
00:04:34.440
But they certainly don't seem like a health organization.
00:04:39.500
There was, even up until today, they're telling people that masks don't help.
00:04:45.000
And every person who's not even an expert is just saying,
00:04:48.580
it's not even slightly believable that they wouldn't have some impact.
00:04:59.220
So at this point, we're being lied to by health organizations.
00:05:08.160
Although I don't mind it so much if the intention of the lying is to prevent hoarding.
00:05:13.560
I think that would be allowable in my ethical judgment of things.
00:05:20.440
Because sometimes you do need to lie to your public for their own benefit.
00:05:26.000
If that was the intention, I'd be okay with that.
00:05:29.220
But nonetheless, we're getting disinformation from other countries.
00:05:38.700
We're not even sure our own numbers are good or our own recommendations.
00:05:45.980
There is a group of people who are the heroes of the moment that I don't think are getting enough attention as a group.
00:05:59.040
If you think about it, the body human, you know, all of humanity together is banded together and everybody's sort of spontaneously filled their little areas of expertise and doing what we can.
00:06:15.480
But I would say the two biggest forces in the military, if you will, are the scientists and doctors on one side, but then the engineers.
00:06:29.500
And here's what the engineers have done already, if you're keeping score, right?
00:06:34.320
So the engineers have figured out how to modify ventilators to double or quadruple their effectiveness.
00:06:42.280
They figured out how to shrink tests, you know, down to a little kit that you can spit in, swab yourself, your own nose.
00:06:50.380
Engineers have figured out how to make a tabletop thing that will give you a result in 15 minutes.
00:07:02.140
Engineers have figured out, you know, how to 3D print parts for ventilators.
00:07:09.200
They're building engineers are retrofitting buildings to produce all the PPE and the other stuff.
00:07:26.960
And if you're waiting for the scientists to do their thing, that probably just takes a little longer.
00:07:35.180
But the reason that, my guess is that the reason you don't have plenty of the malaria drug, the so-called Trump pills,
00:07:42.040
is that the engineers need to probably re-engineer and expand the production.
00:07:48.780
I don't know if we can get all the meds we need just by running the, you know, the pill printing press more hours.
00:07:59.080
But my guess is the engineers are actually just building brand new production facilities out of nothing,
00:08:07.040
You know, you saw engineers build all kinds of websites for people to connect.
00:08:13.180
If you think about it, engineers are killing it.
00:08:18.900
You know, all the various apps people have suggested, et cetera.
00:08:22.520
So if you look at what engineers have already contributed to the war,
00:08:29.740
it's really shockingly, amazingly, excitingly impressive.
00:08:50.380
I have such conflicting feelings about Zoom because as a product, it's amazing.
00:09:04.000
But they have that problem that they have a lot of Chinese engineers in China,
00:09:08.260
and some of the traffic goes through China to their servers, I guess.
00:09:13.920
And that's a pretty, pretty big security risk for businesses who are using it.
00:09:34.080
I forgot to turn on the question mode, which means I can't actually take some questions.
00:09:42.580
So I'm going to read the questions that you're putting in my Twitter feed, because I'm sure you did that.
00:10:05.280
David Angel says, I think you left out a word, but I think what you're trying to say is,
00:10:13.840
at what age did you realize you were smarter than average?
00:10:16.700
Well, you know what's funny about that is if you ask people, if you did a poll, and you ask people if they're smarter than average,
00:10:24.360
I think something like 80% of people say they're smarter than average.
00:10:27.740
So I just thought I'd give us some context there.
00:10:39.340
By five, I was learning to, you know, read and became, slowly I became aware that other kids my age were not reading as well.
00:10:51.440
So I think that's when I noticed it, is around five, you know, I was just learning things a little faster.
00:11:02.420
Somebody says they're having a more fulfilling life, going on walks and relearning the piano.
00:11:10.400
You know, there are going to be some people who believe that, or, I mean, I feel the same way.
00:11:15.480
There are going to be some people who, if they didn't get, you know, crushed or sick, or, you know,
00:11:21.040
the people who somehow avoided economic or health problems, are going to look back at this and say,
00:11:31.760
But other people are going to be suffering mightily.
00:11:42.620
Did anybody see the New York mortality rates for today?
00:11:50.120
I think it was flat for two days, but then somebody said it spiked again today.
00:11:59.240
You know, there's going to be a little bit of noise in it.
00:12:01.360
So no matter what direction things are moving, you should expect there'll be an up day and a down day.
00:12:06.140
But if I look down, 222 deaths, that was today.
00:12:15.600
And I think yesterday was much less than that, right?
00:12:25.540
So I don't know if every day tells you something, because you could just have, you know, coincidental good day, coincidental bad day.
00:12:43.040
Has COVID mutated to several strains, some more deadly?
00:12:46.840
Well, I'm not exactly the right person to ask that question, but I read.
00:12:53.400
So I'll tell you what I read, which is that there's at least two strains, and one is more dangerous than the other.
00:13:03.780
They're supposed to mutate and become weaker over time, allegedly.
00:13:14.620
Most of your questions, or a lot of them, are about hydroxychloroquine.
00:13:25.640
What is the recovery rate for those sick enough to be put on a ventilator?
00:13:31.640
So based on the doctor whose name I don't remember, so, you know, judge the credibility accordingly.
00:13:49.580
Can a person get the seasonal flu and COVID-19 simultaneously?
00:14:01.560
If it's possible at all, you know it's happened to somebody.
00:14:11.000
But on the other hand, I don't know if it's possible.
00:14:14.240
Because if you get the seasonal flu, does your immunity, you know, rise to the challenge?
00:14:22.120
And then it gives you some immunity against something else?
00:14:27.900
Do you think anything bad will happen to the World Health Organization?
00:14:35.820
I don't know what they did before they decided to shamelessly lie in public in the most obvious way.
00:14:42.920
So I don't know enough about what they were doing before, but I hope it didn't depend on being credible, because that boat sailed.
00:14:51.360
Should we have early results from New York City about the hydroxychloroquine?
00:15:02.560
But if they still have a shortage problem, and we don't know about that, but if they still have a shortage of the meds,
00:15:10.280
they might not want to tell you any preliminary stuff that looks a little too positive,
00:15:14.900
not only because they want to make sure and wait longer, but probably wouldn't want you to get, you know, too worked up in trying to hoard it.
00:15:24.980
So in theory, we should know some stuff by now.
00:15:29.560
Now, the other thing I don't know is what kind of test it is.
00:15:33.400
Because apparently there's a big difference between giving it to somebody at first symptoms.
00:15:39.540
It's like, ah, I don't know if it's a flu or a cold or a COVID, we'll just take the malaria drug, the Trump pills.
00:15:47.480
Now, apparently, at least anecdotally, if you get it early, it makes a big difference.
00:15:52.960
But then there's also the thought that people on ventilators are getting benefits from it.
00:15:58.520
So I don't know which one they're testing, and it seems like they would get very different results from them.
00:16:02.900
So, can social distancing and handwashing reduce the R factor to below one in a hot zone?
00:16:16.360
You know, but of course, everything's friction.
00:16:24.180
But in a theoretical sense, could you just do enough handwashing and enough social distancing?
00:16:29.460
And also, if the weather is warmer, would those three things be enough to get the spread rate below one person giving it to one person?
00:16:42.340
I just don't know how practical it is to get people to be that well-behaved.
00:16:51.500
Yeah, so there's news that you literally will have to escape from New York.
00:16:56.280
You know, Paging Snake Plissken was that the character in Escape from New York.
00:17:05.340
So, did you think you'd live to a day when you couldn't leave New York?
00:17:14.960
But, and I'm sure that these things are well thought out.
00:17:18.340
Now, something that I tweeted that I probably just am going to remind you every single time I see you.
00:17:24.180
Nobody is really smart enough to know exactly what to do and when is the time to do it.
00:17:31.480
The moment you think that you know what's the right thing to do and the right time to do it,
00:17:37.520
that's when you should discount all of your own opinions forever.
00:17:47.860
Do you think there's anybody in the administration who knows, who knows what to do and also when to do it?
00:17:56.660
But I guarantee you there are a variety of different opinions.
00:17:59.960
And whatever happens, somebody is going to look back and say,
00:18:07.160
Or they're going to say, well, you did what I said and it worked out right.
00:18:13.660
But the fact is, as long as there are lots of people with different ideas,
00:18:16.960
and I think the spectrum is from go back to work soon to keep the lockdown in place longer,
00:18:28.000
But that doesn't mean it's because they're smart.
00:18:31.380
And I would argue that there isn't anybody smart enough to know what is even right.
00:18:35.240
So, it's already bothering me in advance that people are going to claim genius for being on the right side of,
00:18:53.080
It just means because everybody was all over the map.
00:18:56.140
It just has to be that some people get it right.
00:19:10.720
You know, in the virtual sense that Biden has disappeared and there's not much left of him.
00:19:15.540
And, you know, if you were to plot the curve, I was actually going to make a graph of this,
00:19:23.340
You know, to show the time to the convention and, you know, plot Biden's likely, you know, decline
00:19:32.020
and whether he can even make it to the convention.
00:19:38.120
Because at this point, there's not much left of him.
00:19:41.240
He's sort of a, you know, stack of old magazines, as my friend once said.
00:19:45.460
But, so, you know, then people are talking about drafting Cuomo.
00:19:58.420
You know, I would have to say that Cuomo is charismatic and he does a really good job of empathy
00:20:07.280
and fighting for his people and, you know, taking responsibility and very leaderly things.
00:20:14.720
So, I would give Cuomo quite high marks, if I'm being objective,
00:20:19.440
quite high marks for how he's handling, you know, the public communication
00:20:23.700
and probably even the decisions because nobody's perfect.
00:20:26.480
You know, he's not going to get every call just right.
00:20:32.600
And then people are talking about drafting him.
00:20:38.160
You know, what would have to be the publicly and generally recognized reason
00:20:46.580
Could the Democrats at this late stage, and it would be even later than this
00:20:51.420
because Cuomo's not going to do anything while he's in the middle of this.
00:20:54.960
I mean, even if Cuomo got drafted, he's kind of busy, right?
00:21:00.100
If he started running for president next week, he's not the guy you want for president
00:21:05.120
because that's not what he ought to be doing in the middle of an emergency.
00:21:08.660
So, it doesn't seem to me there's any practical way that it could be done,
00:21:14.360
you know, given the timing, the emergency, the fact that it would be, you know,
00:21:22.460
How would the Democrats possibly explain that they let it get this far?
00:21:28.680
They can see it the same as you can, that Biden, you know, just doesn't have the juice.
00:21:37.060
And at some point, if they have to admit that they knew all along,
00:21:44.820
It's like, well, yeah, we knew there wasn't much left there,
00:21:49.120
but we didn't want to, you know, change horses.
00:21:52.780
There's just no way to, just can't be explained.
00:21:59.260
Who has impressed you the most during the pandemic?
00:22:08.760
Well, you know, I say this all the time because I'm always impressed by it,
00:22:13.380
but Mike Pence is like the most solid utility, you know, six man.
00:22:28.300
You know, I don't, you know, certainly don't agree with him on, you know,
00:22:34.920
So, you know, I don't, I don't map to his point of view.
00:22:40.040
But if you're just being fair and saying, okay, you know,
00:22:45.580
he's adopting the president's point of view and doing a job.
00:22:51.680
If he asked me that question, the answer is pretty solid, pretty solid.
00:23:01.240
I think Trump, Trump is just being Trump for all the good ways and all the bad ways.
00:23:11.680
You know, everybody's tolerance for the personality parts of Trump that really make him special, frankly,
00:23:18.800
and make him interesting and all that, make him funny.
00:23:22.840
I think just everybody has a little less tolerance for that in this situation.
00:23:28.440
But he's, but, but we also like the fact that he's always him, right?
00:23:38.140
But if you think past that, if you can think past the fact, oh, my goodness,
00:23:45.460
is this the first time CNN ever fact-checked him and decided he said something that wasn't true?
00:23:51.720
So if you get past the little stuff, has he made the right decisions?
00:23:56.700
I think history is going to be pretty kind to him.
00:23:59.580
And I, you know, I think nobody knew when is soon enough or what to do,
00:24:09.020
So his support is clearly growing in general and also in regards to handling of the crisis.
00:24:16.400
So whatever he's doing is clearly working politically, you could say that.
00:24:25.420
I'm going to be super forgiving of mistakes that get made and have been made
00:24:33.300
Because anybody who says they know how to do it is the least credible person in the room.
00:24:40.240
So if they're acting, you know, boldly, you know, trying to reassure the public,
00:24:48.020
They're not doing anything that's a dead end and would kill you if it's the wrong decision.
00:24:52.400
If they're getting the basics right in terms of let's talk to everybody,
00:25:00.860
If it doesn't work, you know, measure what happened, correct it, fix it, adjust.
00:25:06.080
If they're doing stuff like that, I'm completely forgiving for any mistakes.
00:25:09.780
Because this isn't a, you know, take a good aim and shoot a bullseye kind of a situation.
00:25:24.160
If the opponent doesn't know what your strategy is,
00:25:29.380
you know, you're going to have to improvise when things get interesting.
00:25:34.420
All right, so focus advice, how to build a new skill.
00:25:43.700
So if there's a skill that you think fits well with your talent stack,
00:25:47.080
do whatever is the smallest thing you're willing to do today.
00:25:51.140
It might be Google something, talk to somebody, write a note to yourself.
00:25:56.840
What's the smallest thing you're willing to do toward that skill that would fit well
00:26:03.540
And then the next day do the, do whatever's the next small thing.
00:26:06.940
If at some point it doesn't start pulling you along,
00:26:33.540
What are credible examples of lockdowns working?
00:26:41.840
Why are so many countries using this blunt tool instead of more precise strategic ways?
00:26:50.320
And I'm very suspicious of anybody who can look at the other countries' experiences
00:27:01.040
Because if you take South Korea, you know, is it because of the testing or is it because of the masks?
00:27:08.220
Is it because they're, as a society, they were more, you know, willing to do what their leaders wanted?
00:27:21.020
Was there something about the nature of the way they live that, you know, none of their nursing homes got, you know,
00:27:32.580
But the one that feels like the one that would be most impactful,
00:27:43.740
But if you were to say to me, you know, make a list of all the things, you know,
00:27:50.400
was it the amount of testing that South Korea did
00:27:53.920
or the fact that they seemed to massively wear masks?
00:27:56.860
I feel like, you know, just my gut feel, I feel like it was the masks, not the testing.
00:28:09.320
So if you want to take the word of the people who actually know what they're talking about
00:28:12.580
and looked into it and, you know, all the experts and the people who are smart,
00:28:23.180
You know, I can't make the numbers work in my head where I don't even remember what the numbers were,
00:28:28.940
but if you look at the whole population of South Korea
00:28:35.220
like I can't square it that it was the tests that fixed everything.
00:28:39.640
But if it was also true that pretty much everybody had access to a mask
00:28:48.560
you know, just culturally, it was just, you know, easier and faster.
00:28:51.420
And wouldn't that get you to a pretty good place pretty quickly?
00:29:14.580
Well, one of the good things to come out of this world-changing event
00:29:18.760
be the young people learning how to make their own coffee.
00:29:21.700
I assume that that's a reference to Starbucks being closed.
00:29:26.500
In 1918 and 19, that pandemic, the Spanish flu,
00:29:40.520
But soon after, we entered the Roaring Twenties.
00:29:43.980
So just a few years after we were in boom times,
00:29:53.320
I mean, I don't think the likelihood is that it's just going to, you know,
00:30:04.260
the most likely thing is that it will be on the better side of predictions.
00:30:11.900
Meaning I think it's going to be better than the average prediction.
00:30:14.640
It'll be stronger, faster than the average person would predict.
00:30:19.840
But, you know, I don't think it's necessarily going to go right to boom towns
00:30:30.860
But, yeah, I don't see any reason that we wouldn't come back very strong.
00:30:41.040
will Americans be more appreciative of everyday life?
00:30:49.660
So the nature of people is that when you can finally go outside
00:30:55.780
assuming it happens in some sudden way instead of a very gradual way,
00:31:14.080
but it's absolutely not a lasting effect, is my experience.
00:31:23.540
Are all the governors banning the Trump pills Democrats?
00:31:41.320
Not that I know of, but I haven't looked at that.
00:32:02.960
What is the only thing that you could know for sure?
00:40:41.120
could we make 100 million of a small electronic unit
00:40:52.780
and I'm sure at least one of the drugs they're testing will work
00:41:00.420
I think if we did more DNA testing we'd know who has more risk than other people
00:41:18.940
but they all take some time to implement for different reasons
00:41:26.800
we just don't know which one will get there first