Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 30, 2020


Episode 880 Scott Adams: Enjoy the Simultaneous Swaddle and DIY Ventilator Instructions


Episode Stats

Length

39 minutes

Words per Minute

142.20636

Word Count

5,567

Sentence Count

318

Hate Speech Sentences

6


Summary

In this episode of the simultaneous swaddle, I talk about the $100 ventilator, and how you can make your own for less than $100 using common household items you already have around your house. I also talk about how to make a $100 do-it-yourself ventilators.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.
00:00:13.280 It's time for the simultaneous swaddle.
00:00:16.660 It's that time when you get to enjoy the unparalleled pleasure of feeling connected to people all over the world.
00:00:26.500 At the same time, wrapped in a soft blanket, or just thinking about it, or just wishing you were wrapped in a soft blanket.
00:00:35.900 Well, we've got plenty of news. Lots of stuff to talk about.
00:00:40.440 A lot of people are going to bring you the bad news about the coronavirus.
00:00:45.200 And I figure that beats pretty well covered, all the bad news.
00:00:50.560 But is there no light at the end of the tunnel?
00:00:54.280 Well, is there nothing that we can appreciate while we get through these tough times?
00:01:00.900 Well, I think there are lots of things.
00:01:04.320 One of the things that I would like to celebrate is human ingenuity.
00:01:08.580 Quite, quite impressive, wouldn't you say?
00:01:11.040 Today, in fact, I tweeted an article, I retweeted an article, that MIT came up with a design where you could make your own ventilator for parts that I guess are easily obtainable for $100.
00:01:28.420 Now, who saw that coming?
00:01:30.660 You know, what's a real ventilator cost?
00:01:32.700 Probably, I think it's over $10,000.
00:01:34.760 It's pretty expensive, right?
00:01:37.180 Somebody tell me in the comments, how much does a good ventilator cost?
00:01:42.980 So when I saw that the geniuses at MIT had invented a do-it-yourself $100 ventilator, I thought, I'm going to make one of those.
00:01:54.700 And I thought, I'm not going to be selfish and just sort of make it for myself.
00:02:01.120 I want to also teach you how to make it.
00:02:03.940 So trust me, this is easier than you think.
00:02:07.200 So I'm going to teach you how to make $100, possibly less, because you'll be using materials that I think all of you have around your house.
00:02:16.160 So this will be the first time I've tried this, but I'm confident, a lot of people you don't know, that I'm not just a cartoonist.
00:02:28.060 I worked as an engineer for years at the phone company.
00:02:33.000 And when I say I worked as an engineer, I mean it said engineer on my business card.
00:02:37.480 I didn't have any actual training.
00:02:39.260 But I worked near engineers, and I had the same job done.
00:02:46.460 And if you work near people long enough, you can pick up.
00:02:50.240 You can get the vibe, right?
00:02:52.220 You don't have to spend four years in college, MIT.
00:02:57.340 You work near people.
00:02:58.780 You pick up things.
00:03:00.100 And so I started to assemble the parts and make sure that you're writing this down.
00:03:06.620 There are not many parts to it, but write this down.
00:03:09.260 So you want to look around your house and just use common household items.
00:03:15.220 For example, grab your Airhawk.
00:03:19.960 I know you have one of these.
00:03:21.960 So this normally would be used for filling up a tire.
00:03:26.200 It's to inflate a tire.
00:03:28.360 But by itself, well, this would be a pretty poor ventilator by itself, right?
00:03:33.260 I think we could agree.
00:03:34.760 But then you want to take a tube that comes from your hydroponic garden that turned out to be a huge mistake.
00:03:44.660 And you want to insert the tube.
00:03:47.700 Now watch this.
00:03:50.220 Into the Airhawk like that, right?
00:03:52.540 And then the other tube is available.
00:03:55.400 Now, this isn't the kind of thing that you want to just start using on an actual patient without a little testing.
00:04:05.160 So you're going to need to run some kind of a clinical trial.
00:04:10.060 I mean, safety first.
00:04:11.560 So you're going to need one other thing.
00:04:15.160 You're going to need one of these.
00:04:18.320 Now, I don't know exactly where you can get one of these.
00:04:24.240 Probably Home Depot.
00:04:25.220 So I got mine in the backyard when I was digging a little foundation for a shed.
00:04:32.760 And I thought, you know, I might need it someday.
00:04:39.380 So I thought, well, I'm not going to throw it away.
00:04:42.160 And if you were going to throw it away, what bin would it go in?
00:04:46.320 It's not exactly trash.
00:04:48.160 You can't really recycle it.
00:04:50.660 It's not lawn clippings.
00:04:52.900 So I was kind of trapped.
00:04:54.200 I wanted to discard it, but I'm also a good citizen.
00:04:57.380 So I'm like, well, maybe I'll just reuse it someday.
00:05:01.220 It's almost like a recycling thing.
00:05:03.980 So anyway, you take the tube that's attached to the Airhawk.
00:05:09.500 And that goes in here.
00:05:13.440 That.
00:05:16.820 Then you turn on the Airhawk.
00:05:20.520 And then watch.
00:05:24.940 And then you remove the ventilator.
00:05:44.400 Again, less than $100 in parts.
00:05:49.740 Stuff that's already in your home.
00:05:53.500 Your patient has recovered, as you can see.
00:05:57.380 You have to use a little bit of imagination here.
00:05:59.240 It's not.
00:05:59.860 I mean, I can't do everything for you.
00:06:01.260 And you can see that the $100 ventilator was quite successful.
00:06:08.420 Now, somebody's suggesting duct tape.
00:06:15.080 That's a fine upgrade.
00:06:16.880 That's a good upgrade.
00:06:19.060 All right.
00:06:19.640 So the president gave a press conference tonight.
00:06:23.920 I rank it his best one.
00:06:26.720 I would say number one.
00:06:28.440 And, you know, of course, people have and will continue to mock me, sometimes with good cause, because when I say good things about the president, they say, you only say good things about the president no matter what he does.
00:06:46.660 But that wouldn't be the case lately, I think most of you would agree.
00:06:53.980 I've been pretty, pretty brutal on his earliest, you know, some of his earlier communication.
00:07:00.980 But I would have to say, of all the Trump public things he's done, I mean, not counting rallies, they're their own category, but if you count, you know, press conferences, I would say this is his best one, not just of the, not only of the pandemic situation, but the best of his presidency, I would say.
00:07:26.300 And I think actually clearly, I think it was actually just a clear best, best of class so far.
00:07:35.520 So good job there, Mr. President.
00:07:38.740 I thought he had all the right notes.
00:07:40.540 He had the right tone.
00:07:42.260 I loved it when he, he fought with CNN.
00:07:45.640 That's just part of the show.
00:07:46.760 Somebody on Twitter said, you know, was, was mocking him, and by extension me, was mocking the president for bragging about his ratings for his press conferences.
00:08:02.700 And, you know, I guess the, the assumption was that it would be bad to be dealing with this, you know, catastrophe, but also, you know, in the same breath, saying that your ratings are really good.
00:08:16.760 And I thought to myself, what kind of an artist are you?
00:08:20.840 Because in my world, one of the most important functions of the government, and certainly of the president, is to inform the public.
00:08:30.620 To tell us what to do, what's coming up.
00:08:33.880 And, you know, and you can argue in the details about some little stuff, you know, the details were wrong and had to be corrected.
00:08:41.040 I don't think any of that's going to matter in the long run.
00:08:43.200 But I'll tell you what does matter.
00:08:45.700 What matters a lot is that the citizens feel that they, they really have some connection to its government.
00:08:53.320 And the government is doing lots of stuff, which the citizens don't know is the right thing, the wrong thing, the right time.
00:09:01.640 We don't really know.
00:09:02.480 But we like to feel connected to something that's happening, because just being connected to it, hearing about it, you know, learning about it, figuring out what we're supposed to do, knowing what to expect and all that stuff is super important.
00:09:16.020 And so what would be, what would be more important than having good ratings?
00:09:20.380 You know, the way the president does it is always more interesting and provocative than someone else would do it.
00:09:27.560 But should he not?
00:09:30.300 Is this going too far?
00:09:31.940 I mean, is this too much of a cheerleader for the president to say that it's absolutely functionally superior to have more people watching him inform the country what to think and what to know?
00:09:45.800 And, you know, not what to think exactly, but, you know, what, what to, you know, what we need to know that they know, that sort of thing.
00:09:54.080 What can be better than having a big audience?
00:09:56.600 It's crazy.
00:09:57.820 So, I mean, he nails it on that.
00:09:59.720 That's probably the strongest thing he does that nobody will ever be able to, to equal.
00:10:05.360 You know, in the history of future presidents, I doubt there'll ever be one who can command attention the way this one can.
00:10:13.940 And see if you have the same response that I did.
00:10:18.380 So today the president was showcasing a number of, I guess, CEOs of big companies that were being especially helpful for the pandemic.
00:10:28.400 So there was CEO of UPS and CEO of this and that hospital and whatever.
00:10:34.780 And so some of the CEOs got to say their little piece.
00:10:38.180 First, a table was an earlier setting where they were sitting around the table, but with some good distance.
00:10:44.260 And, you know, and then later when they was at a podium, you know, some of them would come up and say a few words.
00:10:50.660 And I was really struck by how little charisma these top-level CEOs have compared to Trump.
00:11:01.640 You know, if you have it to play it back or anything, just look for that.
00:11:07.680 Just look at the raw wattage of the CEOs just as a charisma scale.
00:11:15.220 You know, forget about whether you like them or don't like them.
00:11:17.420 I'm just saying pure interesting charisma.
00:11:20.580 And then you watch the president come on and, like, you know, the stadium lights come on.
00:11:27.040 And he's just, it's just like a billion watts brighter than these guys who are top CEOs in the whole country.
00:11:36.820 You know, and I'm not saying this is any kind of an insult to the CEOs because they didn't get their jobs by, you know, being bad at what they do, obviously.
00:11:47.460 You know, I assume that all those CEOs are just, you know, the top-level kinds of performers or they wouldn't be in that situation.
00:11:54.660 But even they kind of disappeared a little bit when Trump was in, you know, the same zip code.
00:12:04.100 I don't think people quite understand how good he is.
00:12:10.080 History is going to be so kind to him if nothing worse happens, you know, assuming that he doesn't break anything in the future.
00:12:18.080 If all that happens is we get past this and get back to something kind of normal, he will be judged so well by how well he captured the audience and got our attention, at least for that stuff anyway.
00:12:35.720 At this moment, the death toll from the coronavirus is negative, meaning more people are alive because of it.
00:12:49.080 Now, I'm not saying that's going to stay that way, but it is a fact that the actual natural deaths that we would have had from car accidents and such has actually been studied now.
00:13:00.280 There's enough data that we can look at and say, well, how did we do for, you know, accidental deaths that week?
00:13:06.720 And I think they're down like 5,000 to 10,000.
00:13:09.760 So since the lockdown got serious, something between 5,000 and 10,000 people are alive that would have otherwise been dead.
00:13:20.640 Now, the cost of that is a little over, I think, I think it's crossed 2,000 people have died so far.
00:13:29.880 Now, you can't compare because the coronavirus is far from done, right?
00:13:34.980 So we don't know what that number grows to, and that's the only thing that matters in the long run.
00:13:39.380 But will we save another 5,000 or 10,000 lives next week?
00:13:45.480 You know, or I'm not sure if it was a one or two week period, whatever it was.
00:13:49.140 But certainly we're going to be in lockdown some more.
00:13:54.060 So wouldn't you therefore conclude that we'll get whatever we saved before would probably continue?
00:14:00.800 So we might save, I don't know, 15,000 to 30,000 lives.
00:14:07.820 I mean, at great cost, of course, because, you know, people are dying of coronavirus.
00:14:13.340 The economy is, you know, taking a hit.
00:14:15.660 So at great cost, but you have to add all the costs and the benefits.
00:14:20.500 If you're actually going to have an adult opinion about things, you have to say,
00:14:24.760 this counts, because it's all the same decision.
00:14:29.180 It caused these side benefits.
00:14:31.160 Those have to be in the calculations.
00:14:33.900 So I'd like to go on record as being the most optimistic person
00:14:39.020 who also thinks that the coronavirus is super deadly.
00:14:43.720 There are people more optimistic than me
00:14:47.700 who never thought the coronavirus was going to be worse than the flu.
00:14:52.400 So I'm not counting them.
00:14:54.300 They can have a competition within their own category.
00:14:58.580 I would like to be the biggest optimist in the category
00:15:02.180 of people who also think it's exactly the same pandemic that the experts think.
00:15:07.500 That the topside worst case actually is somewhere in the general vicinity of what the experts say.
00:15:16.400 So I believe that to be true.
00:15:18.060 I don't know it to be true.
00:15:20.580 But we're all kind of guessing, aren't we?
00:15:23.640 I don't know it to be true.
00:15:25.920 How could you?
00:15:26.560 But, you know, my years on this earth, you know, whatever brain cells I have,
00:15:33.300 have converged on that opinion fairly strongly that the downside risk is pretty tremendous
00:15:39.880 if this got out of hand.
00:15:41.280 So I believe that we have several ways out
00:15:46.960 and that if we can hold on, as the president has now moved the target date,
00:15:53.760 if we can hold on to the new target date,
00:15:56.440 we'll either have a lot more supply of things we need,
00:16:00.860 include masks, tests, ventilators.
00:16:04.520 We might have more kind of lessened serum.
00:16:10.280 You know, we might, maybe we'll have DNA tests.
00:16:12.520 We're probably getting better at social distancing.
00:16:15.560 So there's a whole bunch of stuff that can happen in the,
00:16:21.400 between now and the new deadline, which is April 30th, I believe.
00:16:27.220 So April 30th is sort of the new expect-to-be-locked-down-until-then date.
00:16:32.580 But, of course, everything is flexible based on changing data.
00:16:37.520 Now, I would like to update something that I had said earlier.
00:16:41.380 So before the president had ever picked a date
00:16:43.620 and before he had ever said, let's shoot for Easter,
00:16:48.480 I had said he should give us a date, even if it's wrong, even if it's revised,
00:16:54.580 because you'll feel better.
00:16:56.380 And it won't change what we do
00:16:58.340 because they'll always have the ability to revise anytime they want.
00:17:03.860 But you just feel better if your government said,
00:17:06.420 well, we don't know, but we're going to shoot for this.
00:17:10.700 So that was the Easter date.
00:17:13.180 Almost immediately, some of the experts were saying,
00:17:15.840 well, you know, that's sort of aspirational,
00:17:19.120 which is a word the president used today.
00:17:21.000 And when he revised it, he talked about talking to all of his experts,
00:17:27.600 considering all the options.
00:17:29.740 You know, I think the public, and this is something he did really well,
00:17:33.520 I think the public really thought he wanted to get back to work soon.
00:17:40.680 So the fact that he, you know, that you knew that was his bias,
00:17:46.540 and then he described talking to the experts and then coming to this decision,
00:17:50.680 which is very much different from where you knew his bias was.
00:17:58.280 So that gives you actually some confidence
00:17:59.900 because you can see the range of his, you know, flexible thought
00:18:03.600 and that it landed compatible with the experts.
00:18:06.900 Now, are the experts right?
00:18:08.100 Who knows?
00:18:11.660 I think in this case, they're the smart bat,
00:18:14.400 at least in terms of sizing the thing and guiding us towards solutions.
00:18:20.400 But my point is, the next several weeks,
00:18:23.180 we'll get us to probably have way more tests and masks
00:18:27.420 and hydrochloroquine and test results and stuff.
00:18:33.180 So when we go hard at it, we're going to be pretty well equipped.
00:18:35.740 So, given all that, and the fact that I think the hydrochloroquine is sort of already working,
00:18:43.840 am I right?
00:18:45.720 So my understanding is that if you get the hydroxychloroquine,
00:18:50.340 if you get it as, you know, sort of soon after you get symptoms,
00:18:55.340 your odds of never needing a ventilator are really good.
00:19:00.800 But, if they don't give it to you until you're sort of, you know, on or near the ventilator,
00:19:07.460 it still can work pretty well,
00:19:09.780 but it's not the magic that it would be if you got it early.
00:19:14.280 So, what should you expect if that's actually true versus just my anecdotal hallucinations?
00:19:24.060 Which it could be, right?
00:19:25.420 We could all be hallucinating that there's evidence for this,
00:19:29.440 but it's really just anecdotal.
00:19:31.860 So, what you would expect to see is that the number of deaths would start to level off
00:19:39.740 at the same time the number of infections was skyrocketing.
00:19:44.640 And I think you're going to start to see that.
00:19:47.640 I think maybe you've already seen the first signal of that,
00:19:51.040 but you have to wait a few days to see if it's just noise, I guess, or coincidence.
00:19:57.340 But that's what to look for, and I would expect to see that.
00:20:00.440 But, so, if the hydroxychloroquine works as we suspect,
00:20:06.520 we could get the death rate down below the point
00:20:13.120 that even though it could be a few tens of thousands of people,
00:20:18.860 we could actually get it below the point
00:20:20.960 if you net out the people who didn't die
00:20:24.600 because they're not on the road this week with drunk drivers,
00:20:27.940 you know, for that same time period.
00:20:29.220 So, my optimistic projection is that the net, all things considered,
00:20:36.580 will be under 5,000 deaths.
00:20:40.840 Now, that's not anywhere near what any expert's saying.
00:20:46.420 And by the way, I'm even calculating, you know,
00:20:50.060 just not with any science behind it,
00:20:53.500 but I'm assuming in my opinion,
00:20:56.040 I'm not forgetting any deaths from extra poverty,
00:21:00.720 from the, you know, the economic dislocation.
00:21:06.520 So, I'm going to be the super optimist on this
00:21:09.940 with the understanding you should know in advance
00:21:13.980 that almost nobody who knows what they're talking about
00:21:16.380 thinks it will be this good.
00:21:17.660 I'm kind of alone on this.
00:21:20.800 But that's what makes it fun, right?
00:21:23.640 Have you ever seen me make a prediction
00:21:25.580 in which I was completely alone
00:21:27.920 and that it turned out?
00:21:32.520 Well, some of you have.
00:21:34.880 All right.
00:21:35.220 I couldn't believe that Trump called out New York City,
00:21:41.740 not necessarily the government,
00:21:44.640 but apparently a lot of masks have been shipped to New York City,
00:21:49.700 but they seem to be maybe disappearing.
00:21:54.960 Now, that's not, and I mean by disappearing,
00:21:57.780 I mean stolen.
00:21:58.460 Now, that's not confirmed,
00:22:01.820 but what's interesting about this is that Trump,
00:22:04.920 I think Trump has a really good sort of BS detector,
00:22:10.880 you know, a crime detector.
00:22:13.100 You know, say what you will about him,
00:22:15.180 but don't you think he can sniff a,
00:22:18.000 you know, sniff out a, you know,
00:22:20.620 a little impropriety?
00:22:22.320 Like he would be good at that, don't you think?
00:22:24.940 Especially if it had to do with New York City
00:22:26.820 and let's say the underworld connection
00:22:33.720 to moving goods back and forth in New York City.
00:22:37.040 So if Trump looked at those numbers and said,
00:22:40.140 maybe those numbers are real,
00:22:43.440 but I really think the press ought to look into this
00:22:46.060 because it doesn't look real to me.
00:22:48.340 It looks like something's falling off the back of trucks.
00:22:52.800 And I don't think I could have loved more
00:22:55.600 the fact that he put that out there,
00:22:58.180 even without proof.
00:23:01.080 Because, I don't know,
00:23:03.560 if I had to put odds on it,
00:23:06.560 oh, 70% chance he's right.
00:23:09.700 Wouldn't you say?
00:23:10.480 That's worth looking into.
00:23:11.880 If you had to guess,
00:23:13.900 is Trump right,
00:23:15.800 that there is massive criminal activity
00:23:19.300 going around these, you know,
00:23:21.040 these so valuable masks,
00:23:23.600 wouldn't you kind of assume there must be,
00:23:26.640 you know,
00:23:27.000 especially in this environment
00:23:28.520 and the fact that it's probably easy
00:23:30.680 to get away with it.
00:23:33.000 Yeah, I think Trump knows,
00:23:36.120 he just might smell it from,
00:23:39.140 you know, 10 states away,
00:23:40.520 and you might be right.
00:23:41.920 Let's see what else we've got going on here.
00:23:47.920 So the experts were predicting
00:23:49.560 zero to,
00:23:51.840 no,
00:23:54.260 what was it?
00:23:56.080 From zero to
00:23:57.380 two million,
00:23:59.720 or 20,
00:24:00.100 no,
00:24:00.320 20,000 to two million or something.
00:24:02.600 200,000 to two million.
00:24:04.480 Some gigantic number.
00:24:05.520 I hope not.
00:24:10.180 Here's an idea.
00:24:12.540 So Bill Ackman,
00:24:14.100 hedge fund guy,
00:24:15.680 sometimes not that popular
00:24:17.460 in some circles.
00:24:18.520 If you're on the other end of a trade
00:24:20.200 and you lost money,
00:24:21.500 you don't like him.
00:24:22.820 But he tweets this.
00:24:27.160 And I don't think he's some big friend
00:24:29.120 to the president,
00:24:30.380 but this was a productive idea,
00:24:33.400 you know,
00:24:33.700 no matter who you are.
00:24:34.660 So listen to this.
00:24:35.980 So Bill Ackman says,
00:24:36.920 Mr. President,
00:24:37.700 in his tweet,
00:24:38.900 why don't you launch
00:24:39.920 the biggest infrastructure program
00:24:41.860 of all time now?
00:24:43.460 Roads,
00:24:44.060 bridges,
00:24:44.540 and other infrastructure
00:24:45.520 involving outdoor work.
00:24:48.000 Pretty clever,
00:24:48.780 huh?
00:24:49.480 That allows for social distancing.
00:24:53.520 That's not bad.
00:24:55.480 He says,
00:24:56.020 doing so will put Americans
00:24:57.180 back to work now
00:24:58.160 in good paying,
00:24:59.160 virus,
00:24:59.820 safe jobs.
00:25:01.360 And,
00:25:01.720 you know,
00:25:01.960 I have to say,
00:25:04.280 like,
00:25:04.620 why didn't I think of that?
00:25:06.520 You know,
00:25:06.920 you hear that idea
00:25:07.900 and the first thing
00:25:08.660 you think of is,
00:25:10.540 why didn't somebody
00:25:12.300 already say that?
00:25:13.800 Did nobody say that before?
00:25:15.400 I didn't think of it.
00:25:16.980 But,
00:25:17.980 what would be a better time
00:25:19.780 to do the biggest
00:25:20.860 bipartisan infrastructure bill
00:25:23.040 of all time?
00:25:23.720 Seriously,
00:25:26.500 what would be
00:25:27.480 the better time
00:25:29.300 to get a bipartisan,
00:25:30.740 enormous infrastructure bill
00:25:32.460 and just put masses
00:25:33.900 of people back to work
00:25:35.100 outdoors?
00:25:36.720 It's kind of brilliant.
00:25:40.000 If I'm being honest,
00:25:41.540 there's nothing wrong
00:25:42.280 with that idea, right?
00:25:44.060 Okay.
00:25:48.580 Of course,
00:25:50.200 with all this big news,
00:25:51.540 CNN decided that
00:25:52.660 the thing they would
00:25:53.300 focus on is that
00:25:54.580 when the president
00:25:55.800 was sparring
00:25:56.560 with a member
00:25:59.580 of the press,
00:26:00.940 he referred to her
00:26:03.320 as part of a group,
00:26:04.880 meaning the press
00:26:06.180 that he doesn't like,
00:26:07.580 as you people,
00:26:08.460 which was immediately
00:26:10.700 interpreted as
00:26:11.900 what?
00:26:14.320 What was that?
00:26:15.200 That's right.
00:26:16.200 Yes,
00:26:16.440 it was interpreted
00:26:17.000 as racist.
00:26:18.880 So,
00:26:19.460 that's what CNN
00:26:20.120 decided to focus on.
00:26:22.460 So,
00:26:22.920 you got that.
00:26:25.300 I would like to read
00:26:26.380 to you
00:26:26.880 before I take
00:26:30.240 your questions
00:26:30.900 a tweet thread
00:26:33.180 that might make
00:26:34.400 you feel better.
00:26:35.680 So,
00:26:35.960 some of you
00:26:36.420 already saw this,
00:26:37.260 but I think
00:26:38.000 it's worth
00:26:38.420 reading it to you
00:26:40.140 again.
00:26:42.300 And,
00:26:42.920 it goes like this.
00:26:44.820 The coronavirus
00:26:45.460 is acting like
00:26:46.580 an unwelcome
00:26:47.340 Olympics
00:26:47.960 for scientists,
00:26:49.280 doctors,
00:26:49.720 engineers,
00:26:50.700 entrepreneurs,
00:26:51.420 techies,
00:26:51.780 leaders,
00:26:52.100 parents,
00:26:52.680 and ordinary
00:26:53.380 heroes of every
00:26:54.320 kind,
00:26:55.380 setting records
00:26:56.220 in every event.
00:26:58.340 You can almost
00:26:59.380 feel humanity
00:27:00.340 getting smarter.
00:27:02.400 The most capable
00:27:03.180 among us
00:27:03.840 are forming
00:27:04.520 lasting connections,
00:27:06.200 sharing best practices,
00:27:07.400 learning shortcuts,
00:27:09.720 building a working
00:27:10.700 trust,
00:27:11.860 creating tools
00:27:12.620 at blazing speeds.
00:27:15.280 One way to imagine
00:27:16.600 the future
00:27:17.220 is that the economy
00:27:18.700 will lose
00:27:19.420 trillions of dollars
00:27:20.520 and we'll never
00:27:21.920 get it back.
00:27:23.780 Another filter
00:27:24.820 on the future
00:27:25.400 is that energy
00:27:26.860 doesn't disappear.
00:27:28.440 It only relocates
00:27:29.940 and changes form.
00:27:31.740 A huge amount
00:27:32.620 of energy
00:27:33.040 is leaving
00:27:33.780 the economy.
00:27:34.520 We know
00:27:35.720 that for sure.
00:27:37.680 What is less
00:27:38.660 clear
00:27:39.200 is where
00:27:40.500 that energy
00:27:41.100 is going.
00:27:42.580 My filter
00:27:43.180 shows a global
00:27:44.220 mind
00:27:45.120 being formed
00:27:46.500 in real time
00:27:47.360 to fight
00:27:48.480 our common
00:27:49.000 enemy,
00:27:49.900 the virus.
00:27:50.980 That mind
00:27:51.720 needs a lot
00:27:52.340 of energy
00:27:52.840 like a newborn
00:27:53.960 and wow
00:27:55.460 is it getting it.
00:27:57.400 I had resisted
00:27:58.740 the common
00:27:59.280 pundit prediction
00:28:00.360 that everything
00:28:01.800 would be different
00:28:02.760 after this crisis
00:28:04.500 because I expect
00:28:05.480 a speedy recovery
00:28:06.380 but I revised
00:28:08.260 my opinion.
00:28:10.400 While I still
00:28:11.460 expect a speedy
00:28:12.540 recovery,
00:28:13.560 I also think
00:28:14.420 this experience
00:28:15.180 is rewiring
00:28:16.280 the collective
00:28:19.540 mind of civilization.
00:28:21.460 We probably
00:28:22.300 crammed years
00:28:23.440 of innovation
00:28:24.100 into months.
00:28:26.060 We'll be coming
00:28:26.800 out of this
00:28:27.280 with a lot
00:28:28.440 of extra
00:28:29.380 knowledge
00:28:29.900 about our
00:28:30.440 systems
00:28:30.980 and about
00:28:31.940 ourselves.
00:28:33.060 That energy
00:28:33.740 will get
00:28:34.200 channeled back
00:28:35.080 into the
00:28:35.820 economy.
00:28:38.060 The coming
00:28:38.980 weeks will
00:28:39.540 test us all
00:28:40.520 but when it
00:28:41.780 is over
00:28:42.220 we will be
00:28:42.960 far smarter
00:28:43.820 and far
00:28:45.040 tougher
00:28:45.420 in every way.
00:28:48.120 As Steve Jobs
00:28:49.400 proved,
00:28:50.080 the right
00:28:50.360 thoughts
00:28:50.820 and the right
00:28:51.380 skill stack
00:28:52.240 can turn
00:28:53.300 into trillions
00:28:54.000 of dollars.
00:28:56.340 Civilization's
00:28:56.940 skill stack
00:28:57.520 is undergoing
00:28:58.180 a major
00:28:58.780 upgrade.
00:28:59.360 watch how
00:29:00.660 much energy
00:29:01.320 that later
00:29:02.180 pumps into
00:29:02.820 the economy.
00:29:04.360 It will be
00:29:05.060 amazing.
00:29:07.040 So,
00:29:08.040 that's my
00:29:09.540 positive thoughts
00:29:10.300 for the day.
00:29:12.040 If any of you
00:29:12.900 have any...
00:29:13.440 Sorry,
00:29:14.060 I couldn't
00:29:14.480 quite hear you.
00:29:15.520 Could you
00:29:15.820 please repeat...
00:29:17.320 If any of you
00:29:22.120 have a
00:29:22.640 question,
00:29:25.000 I would be
00:29:25.800 happy to
00:29:26.640 to take
00:29:28.500 a shot
00:29:28.800 at it.
00:29:32.420 All right.
00:29:33.540 Yeah,
00:29:33.820 that was a
00:29:34.500 tweet thread
00:29:35.640 that I wrote
00:29:36.180 earlier today
00:29:37.960 so it's
00:29:38.340 pinned to my
00:29:39.080 Twitter feed
00:29:40.620 if you want
00:29:40.980 to see it.
00:29:42.780 And,
00:29:43.920 yeah,
00:29:44.220 somebody says
00:29:44.800 the energy
00:29:45.260 released thanks
00:29:46.360 to deregulation.
00:29:48.260 Yeah,
00:29:48.500 one wonders
00:29:49.120 if you can
00:29:49.780 put that genie
00:29:50.660 back in the
00:29:51.280 bottle so easily.
00:29:52.140 that we
00:29:54.140 all kind of
00:29:54.780 witnessed
00:29:55.200 something
00:29:55.920 incredible
00:29:56.500 which is
00:29:57.520 what humans
00:29:58.500 can do
00:29:59.100 if friction
00:30:00.560 is removed.
00:30:02.280 Friction in
00:30:03.040 terms of
00:30:03.420 government
00:30:03.900 requirements.
00:30:06.000 Now,
00:30:06.200 of course,
00:30:06.480 that's dangerous
00:30:07.060 but it
00:30:09.140 was pretty
00:30:09.680 amazing.
00:30:10.840 I mean,
00:30:10.980 we were right
00:30:11.340 in the middle
00:30:11.680 of it and
00:30:12.300 watching it
00:30:12.960 is sort
00:30:14.400 of a
00:30:14.900 privilege
00:30:16.200 to be able
00:30:16.840 to watch
00:30:17.300 this degree
00:30:18.680 of human
00:30:19.480 capability
00:30:21.240 coming together
00:30:22.000 at this
00:30:22.360 time.
00:30:25.060 What does
00:30:25.820 the ideal
00:30:26.380 government
00:30:26.880 look like?
00:30:28.340 Well,
00:30:28.740 I think we
00:30:29.200 might be
00:30:29.620 evolving into
00:30:30.380 it,
00:30:30.880 oddly enough.
00:30:33.700 Here's what
00:30:34.400 I mean
00:30:34.800 when I talk
00:30:35.360 about the
00:30:36.260 energy that's
00:30:37.040 being taken
00:30:37.680 out of the
00:30:38.420 economy and
00:30:39.220 then stored
00:30:40.100 into the
00:30:40.640 global mind.
00:30:42.380 Imagine,
00:30:43.100 if you will,
00:30:43.520 that before
00:30:43.940 this crisis
00:30:44.640 that people
00:30:46.400 were sort
00:30:47.060 of like
00:30:47.380 independent
00:30:47.880 islands.
00:30:48.860 You know,
00:30:49.020 each person,
00:30:49.680 just think of
00:30:50.160 them as an
00:30:50.900 island.
00:30:51.240 Just visualize
00:30:52.060 this.
00:30:53.360 And some
00:30:53.900 of those
00:30:54.220 islands had
00:30:54.880 bridges
00:30:56.140 connecting them.
00:30:57.500 So now
00:30:57.920 in your
00:30:58.160 mind,
00:30:58.640 connect a
00:30:59.340 few of
00:30:59.620 the islands
00:31:00.040 to each
00:31:00.580 other,
00:31:01.240 but make
00:31:01.720 sure not
00:31:02.280 all of
00:31:02.660 the islands
00:31:03.140 are connected
00:31:03.700 to all the
00:31:04.240 other islands.
00:31:04.960 You can get
00:31:06.580 from every
00:31:07.040 island to
00:31:07.500 every other
00:31:07.960 island,
00:31:08.500 but maybe
00:31:08.900 you have
00:31:09.140 to do a
00:31:09.560 two-hop
00:31:10.060 or something.
00:31:11.660 But what
00:31:12.140 this crisis
00:31:13.040 did is it
00:31:14.740 took those
00:31:15.200 existing islands
00:31:16.200 and suddenly
00:31:17.500 everybody could
00:31:18.880 talk to other
00:31:19.580 people and
00:31:20.760 they did,
00:31:21.900 and they
00:31:22.200 did it
00:31:22.480 easily because
00:31:23.040 of the
00:31:23.240 internet,
00:31:23.960 and we
00:31:24.220 formed these
00:31:24.820 connections
00:31:25.420 instantly that
00:31:27.200 didn't exist
00:31:27.740 before.
00:31:28.780 So there
00:31:29.040 were a
00:31:30.100 whole bunch
00:31:30.540 of bridges
00:31:31.160 that just
00:31:31.700 went sprigging
00:31:32.720 out from
00:31:33.160 each island
00:31:33.740 so that
00:31:34.700 everybody now
00:31:35.500 was only one
00:31:36.300 jump away
00:31:37.280 from everybody
00:31:37.880 else.
00:31:38.520 You didn't
00:31:38.960 have to do
00:31:39.440 a two-hop
00:31:40.080 to get to
00:31:40.540 anybody.
00:31:41.120 You could
00:31:41.580 pick up a
00:31:42.080 phone,
00:31:42.460 you could send
00:31:43.200 a message,
00:31:43.720 you could DM,
00:31:44.300 and you
00:31:45.000 were talking
00:31:45.400 to anybody
00:31:45.880 in the world.
00:31:46.940 And if they
00:31:47.320 needed you
00:31:47.840 and you
00:31:48.120 needed them
00:31:48.640 and you
00:31:48.920 recognized it,
00:31:49.560 you connected
00:31:50.080 immediately.
00:31:52.040 And if you
00:31:53.020 visualize those
00:31:54.260 islands,
00:31:54.940 first with just
00:31:55.680 a few bridges
00:31:56.360 but enough
00:31:57.140 to get from
00:31:57.640 anywhere to
00:31:58.080 anywhere,
00:31:58.920 and then
00:31:59.280 suddenly bridges
00:32:00.540 from every
00:32:01.320 island in
00:32:02.000 every direction,
00:32:03.400 that's where
00:32:04.180 all the energy
00:32:04.780 went.
00:32:05.920 So all the
00:32:07.300 energy that we
00:32:08.000 had been putting
00:32:08.660 into the economy,
00:32:10.380 we suddenly
00:32:10.920 just turned
00:32:12.120 in the same
00:32:12.640 direction as
00:32:13.540 one,
00:32:14.660 following our
00:32:15.360 leaders who
00:32:16.220 were pointing
00:32:17.000 us at the
00:32:17.500 common enemy,
00:32:18.260 the virus.
00:32:19.660 And over
00:32:21.360 several weeks,
00:32:22.440 we've taken
00:32:23.400 all of that
00:32:24.460 energy that
00:32:25.100 would have
00:32:25.420 otherwise been
00:32:26.200 put into the
00:32:27.200 various parts
00:32:28.180 of the economy,
00:32:29.460 focused on
00:32:30.540 this one
00:32:31.700 incredibly
00:32:32.520 important task,
00:32:34.700 and something
00:32:36.400 amazing is
00:32:37.040 happening.
00:32:38.400 And I
00:32:39.100 think that
00:32:39.780 because we
00:32:41.900 formed this
00:32:42.580 global mind
00:32:43.440 if you
00:32:43.820 will,
00:32:44.440 after we
00:32:45.000 beat the
00:32:45.440 virus,
00:32:46.540 those
00:32:46.840 connections,
00:32:47.800 not every
00:32:48.340 one of
00:32:48.620 them,
00:32:49.420 but many
00:32:49.860 of them
00:32:50.120 will remain.
00:32:51.580 And we'll
00:32:51.880 have a,
00:32:52.980 let's say,
00:32:53.780 a shared
00:32:54.320 civilization
00:32:54.980 memory of
00:32:56.660 what worked
00:32:57.240 and what
00:32:57.560 didn't.
00:32:58.240 We'll all
00:32:58.880 see a whole
00:32:59.380 bunch of
00:33:00.080 rapid models
00:33:01.840 and tests.
00:33:02.720 We'll see how
00:33:03.200 A-B testing
00:33:03.940 works.
00:33:04.880 We're all
00:33:05.420 going to be
00:33:05.740 better decision
00:33:06.460 makers.
00:33:07.360 Because one of
00:33:08.000 the weird
00:33:08.260 things is,
00:33:08.900 this has
00:33:10.020 been like
00:33:10.520 a Harvard
00:33:11.960 business
00:33:12.500 case in
00:33:14.060 how to
00:33:14.300 make
00:33:14.460 decisions
00:33:14.940 with
00:33:15.980 inadequate
00:33:16.540 information
00:33:17.260 that's
00:33:17.740 changing
00:33:18.080 all the
00:33:18.400 time and
00:33:19.000 lots of
00:33:19.360 interests and
00:33:20.400 lots of
00:33:20.740 variables.
00:33:22.020 And because
00:33:22.640 it's such a
00:33:23.700 shared
00:33:24.140 experience,
00:33:25.800 we all
00:33:26.580 were engaged
00:33:27.660 in the
00:33:28.420 Harvard
00:33:28.880 business
00:33:29.360 case.
00:33:30.160 We all
00:33:30.620 got to see
00:33:31.120 all the
00:33:31.480 variables.
00:33:32.360 We all
00:33:32.600 got to
00:33:32.960 say,
00:33:33.120 if this
00:33:34.500 were me,
00:33:35.720 what would
00:33:36.100 I do?
00:33:38.380 How would
00:33:39.000 I handle
00:33:39.380 this?
00:33:40.280 And so
00:33:40.540 we all
00:33:41.360 sort of
00:33:41.780 learned
00:33:42.220 almost like
00:33:42.940 a college
00:33:43.780 class in
00:33:44.700 crisis
00:33:45.260 management.
00:33:46.460 If you
00:33:46.960 think about
00:33:47.480 it,
00:33:47.740 it would
00:33:48.080 take you
00:33:48.380 a while
00:33:48.700 to make
00:33:49.980 a list,
00:33:51.500 but if
00:33:52.020 you thought
00:33:52.380 about all
00:33:52.780 the concepts
00:33:54.060 that are
00:33:55.340 really good
00:33:56.000 ones,
00:33:56.560 the things
00:33:56.940 that you'll
00:33:57.620 learn at
00:33:58.380 the end
00:33:58.640 of the
00:33:58.900 cycle,
00:33:59.640 because it's
00:34:00.000 like taking
00:34:00.480 we're all
00:34:01.140 at college
00:34:01.760 basically.
00:34:02.260 we're
00:34:03.260 learning a
00:34:03.800 ton about
00:34:04.500 how do
00:34:05.380 you approach
00:34:05.880 these
00:34:06.160 situations?
00:34:07.160 What do
00:34:07.360 you do?
00:34:08.020 How do
00:34:08.320 you get
00:34:08.520 ready?
00:34:09.320 How do
00:34:09.620 you assess
00:34:10.020 risk?
00:34:10.960 How do
00:34:11.400 you manage
00:34:11.800 risk?
00:34:12.160 How do
00:34:12.320 you balance
00:34:12.820 things when
00:34:13.940 these kinds
00:34:15.700 of lives
00:34:16.100 are at
00:34:16.400 the risk
00:34:16.820 versus
00:34:17.200 these
00:34:17.520 kinds?
00:34:18.720 How do
00:34:19.300 you apply
00:34:19.820 ingenuity
00:34:21.780 to the
00:34:22.120 problem
00:34:22.500 versus money
00:34:24.000 versus all
00:34:24.620 those things?
00:34:25.920 So I
00:34:27.880 think we're
00:34:28.300 going to
00:34:28.460 come out
00:34:28.720 of this
00:34:29.020 with a
00:34:30.380 global
00:34:30.820 mind
00:34:31.380 that's
00:34:31.900 grown
00:34:32.880 all
00:34:33.160 these
00:34:33.360 new
00:34:33.700 neurons
00:34:34.340 that
00:34:35.660 many
00:34:36.360 of
00:34:36.480 them
00:34:36.600 will
00:34:36.720 be
00:34:36.880 permanent
00:34:37.220 and we'll
00:34:38.420 just know how to solve problems differently.
00:34:40.600 We'll have a different, maybe a different feeling about red tape.
00:34:44.220 Maybe we won't tolerate it.
00:34:46.480 Perhaps we'll have procedures that we do in good times and a set of procedures that immediately
00:34:51.140 go into effect when there's a crisis.
00:34:53.640 And at the very least, this situation has surfaced who the leaders are and who the capable people are and who the people really, you know, you can depend on in a crunch.
00:35:09.120 And I think some of that's permanent, there will be people within corporate America, probably people in government, whose entire careers will be determined by how they get through the next several months.
00:35:23.000 You know, just the way 9-11 made a Rudy Giuliani, this is not just New York, although they're getting hit hardest. This is all of us. So every mayor, every governor, every senator, every representative, every person on the task force, they're all on audition for a better job or more responsibility later.
00:35:46.400 So, if nothing else, we're going through the greatest talent filter our country has ever experienced.
00:35:56.540 That's good.
00:35:57.920 And I do think, even though I'm a bit of a cynic and a skeptic, I do think that some of what we're learning about being able to work together is going to last.
00:36:10.620 Not all of it.
00:36:11.640 You know, there's going to be a lot of goodwill that's happening now because people understand there are higher priorities than arguing about, you know, politics.
00:36:21.700 And most of that will go away.
00:36:24.080 You know, as soon as we get back to normal, we just go back to being humans.
00:36:28.260 We get a little tribal because we would have that luxury.
00:36:31.900 But I don't think it's all going away.
00:36:33.300 I think there's going to be a good, solid 10% that is a lasting civilization memory that says, yeah, I'm arguing with you now.
00:36:47.100 But when, you know, when the stuff goes down, you and I are going to be on the same team.
00:36:53.780 I've always thought that that's why the United States and France, for example, will always be best buddies, you know, internationally, no matter how much we argue with them.
00:37:05.640 And, you know, if you don't like them for this or their attitude or their policies or their socialists, whatever, you know, we might bicker like siblings forever.
00:37:14.920 But the one thing that we sort of believe about each other, you know, France and the United States, is that based on history, we would have each other's backs.
00:37:26.520 That feels permanent, doesn't it?
00:37:28.940 You know, when was the last time, I mean, in your lifetime, when was the last time you had to have France's back or France had to have our back, you know, in skirmishes and Iraq and stuff?
00:37:40.360 But those were sort of, you know, over there.
00:37:42.140 I'm not sure if that was a case of anybody having anybody's backs.
00:37:47.020 But you know we would, right?
00:37:49.060 And part of the reason that we would, like you know with 100% certainty, if you live in America, that if France were, you know, seriously threatened by an external threat, the next thing that France would hear is, could you step out of the way?
00:38:05.780 Could you, you know, we love that you want to fight this out on your own, but seriously, just step out of the way.
00:38:14.160 Give us 10 minutes.
00:38:15.680 And the United States would take care of business because we would always have France's back.
00:38:19.880 And the reason we would is because they've had our back, right, historically and vice versa.
00:38:26.040 So that kind of feeling can last, it can last generations.
00:38:33.700 And there might be, this is the hopeful part of me, there might be just a little bit of this experience when we get to the end of it that we just remember as a society.
00:38:44.100 We just remember that we're capable.
00:38:45.760 We're just capable of being on the same side when it's important.
00:38:51.300 So that's the last thing that I'd like to leave with you.
00:38:54.620 And now I'd like you to go off to a really good night's sleep.
00:38:59.980 And I will see you in the morning.
00:39:02.100 You know what time.
00:39:03.600 Make sure you've got your simultaneous sipping beverage.
00:39:07.980 Have a good night.