Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 880 Scott Adams： Enjoy the Simultaneous Swaddle and DIY Ventilator Instructions

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:13.280 It's time for the simultaneous swaddle.

00:00:16.660 It's that time when you get to enjoy the unparalleled pleasure of feeling connected to people all over the world.

00:00:26.500 At the same time, wrapped in a soft blanket, or just thinking about it, or just wishing you were wrapped in a soft blanket.

00:00:35.900 Well, we've got plenty of news. Lots of stuff to talk about.

00:00:40.440 A lot of people are going to bring you the bad news about the coronavirus.

00:00:45.200 And I figure that beats pretty well covered, all the bad news.

00:00:50.560 But is there no light at the end of the tunnel?

00:00:54.280 Well, is there nothing that we can appreciate while we get through these tough times?

00:01:00.900 Well, I think there are lots of things.

00:01:04.320 One of the things that I would like to celebrate is human ingenuity.

00:01:08.580 Quite, quite impressive, wouldn't you say?

00:01:11.040 Today, in fact, I tweeted an article, I retweeted an article, that MIT came up with a design where you could make your own ventilator for parts that I guess are easily obtainable for $100.

00:01:28.420 Now, who saw that coming?

00:01:30.660 You know, what's a real ventilator cost?

00:01:32.700 Probably, I think it's over $10,000.

00:01:34.760 It's pretty expensive, right?

00:01:37.180 Somebody tell me in the comments, how much does a good ventilator cost?

00:01:42.980 So when I saw that the geniuses at MIT had invented a do-it-yourself $100 ventilator, I thought, I'm going to make one of those.

00:01:54.700 And I thought, I'm not going to be selfish and just sort of make it for myself.

00:02:01.120 I want to also teach you how to make it.

00:02:03.940 So trust me, this is easier than you think.

00:02:07.200 So I'm going to teach you how to make $100, possibly less, because you'll be using materials that I think all of you have around your house.

00:02:16.160 So this will be the first time I've tried this, but I'm confident, a lot of people you don't know, that I'm not just a cartoonist.

00:02:28.060 I worked as an engineer for years at the phone company.

00:02:33.000 And when I say I worked as an engineer, I mean it said engineer on my business card.

00:02:37.480 I didn't have any actual training.

00:02:39.260 But I worked near engineers, and I had the same job done.

00:02:46.460 And if you work near people long enough, you can pick up.

00:02:50.240 You can get the vibe, right?

00:02:52.220 You don't have to spend four years in college, MIT.

00:02:57.340 You work near people.

00:02:58.780 You pick up things.

00:03:00.100 And so I started to assemble the parts and make sure that you're writing this down.

00:03:06.620 There are not many parts to it, but write this down.

00:03:09.260 So you want to look around your house and just use common household items.

00:03:15.220 For example, grab your Airhawk.

00:03:19.960 I know you have one of these.

00:03:21.960 So this normally would be used for filling up a tire.

00:03:26.200 It's to inflate a tire.

00:03:28.360 But by itself, well, this would be a pretty poor ventilator by itself, right?

00:03:33.260 I think we could agree.

00:03:34.760 But then you want to take a tube that comes from your hydroponic garden that turned out to be a huge mistake.

00:03:44.660 And you want to insert the tube.

00:03:47.700 Now watch this.

00:03:50.220 Into the Airhawk like that, right?

00:03:52.540 And then the other tube is available.

00:03:55.400 Now, this isn't the kind of thing that you want to just start using on an actual patient without a little testing.

00:04:05.160 So you're going to need to run some kind of a clinical trial.

00:04:10.060 I mean, safety first.

00:04:11.560 So you're going to need one other thing.

00:04:15.160 You're going to need one of these.

00:04:18.320 Now, I don't know exactly where you can get one of these.

00:04:24.240 Probably Home Depot.

00:04:25.220 So I got mine in the backyard when I was digging a little foundation for a shed.

00:04:32.760 And I thought, you know, I might need it someday.

00:04:39.380 So I thought, well, I'm not going to throw it away.

00:04:42.160 And if you were going to throw it away, what bin would it go in?

00:04:46.320 It's not exactly trash.

00:04:48.160 You can't really recycle it.

00:04:50.660 It's not lawn clippings.

00:04:52.900 So I was kind of trapped.

00:04:54.200 I wanted to discard it, but I'm also a good citizen.

00:04:57.380 So I'm like, well, maybe I'll just reuse it someday.

00:05:01.220 It's almost like a recycling thing.

00:05:03.980 So anyway, you take the tube that's attached to the Airhawk.

00:05:09.500 And that goes in here.

00:05:13.440 That.

00:05:16.820 Then you turn on the Airhawk.

00:05:20.520 And then watch.

00:05:24.940 And then you remove the ventilator.

00:05:44.400 Again, less than $100 in parts.

00:05:49.740 Stuff that's already in your home.

00:05:53.500 Your patient has recovered, as you can see.

00:05:57.380 You have to use a little bit of imagination here.

00:05:59.240 It's not.

00:05:59.860 I mean, I can't do everything for you.

00:06:01.260 And you can see that the $100 ventilator was quite successful.

00:06:08.420 Now, somebody's suggesting duct tape.

00:06:15.080 That's a fine upgrade.

00:06:16.880 That's a good upgrade.

00:06:19.060 All right.

00:06:19.640 So the president gave a press conference tonight.

00:06:23.920 I rank it his best one.

00:06:26.720 I would say number one.

00:06:28.440 And, you know, of course, people have and will continue to mock me, sometimes with good cause, because when I say good things about the president, they say, you only say good things about the president no matter what he does.

00:06:46.660 But that wouldn't be the case lately, I think most of you would agree.

00:06:53.980 I've been pretty, pretty brutal on his earliest, you know, some of his earlier communication.

00:07:00.980 But I would have to say, of all the Trump public things he's done, I mean, not counting rallies, they're their own category, but if you count, you know, press conferences, I would say this is his best one, not just of the, not only of the pandemic situation, but the best of his presidency, I would say.

00:07:26.300 And I think actually clearly, I think it was actually just a clear best, best of class so far.

00:07:35.520 So good job there, Mr. President.

00:07:38.740 I thought he had all the right notes.

00:07:40.540 He had the right tone.

00:07:42.260 I loved it when he, he fought with CNN.

00:07:45.640 That's just part of the show.

00:07:46.760 Somebody on Twitter said, you know, was, was mocking him, and by extension me, was mocking the president for bragging about his ratings for his press conferences.

00:08:02.700 And, you know, I guess the, the assumption was that it would be bad to be dealing with this, you know, catastrophe, but also, you know, in the same breath, saying that your ratings are really good.

00:08:16.760 And I thought to myself, what kind of an artist are you?

00:08:20.840 Because in my world, one of the most important functions of the government, and certainly of the president, is to inform the public.

00:08:30.620 To tell us what to do, what's coming up.

00:08:33.880 And, you know, and you can argue in the details about some little stuff, you know, the details were wrong and had to be corrected.

00:08:41.040 I don't think any of that's going to matter in the long run.

00:08:43.200 But I'll tell you what does matter.

00:08:45.700 What matters a lot is that the citizens feel that they, they really have some connection to its government.

00:08:53.320 And the government is doing lots of stuff, which the citizens don't know is the right thing, the wrong thing, the right time.

00:09:01.640 We don't really know.

00:09:02.480 But we like to feel connected to something that's happening, because just being connected to it, hearing about it, you know, learning about it, figuring out what we're supposed to do, knowing what to expect and all that stuff is super important.

00:09:16.020 And so what would be, what would be more important than having good ratings?

00:09:20.380 You know, the way the president does it is always more interesting and provocative than someone else would do it.

00:09:27.560 But should he not?

00:09:30.300 Is this going too far?

00:09:31.940 I mean, is this too much of a cheerleader for the president to say that it's absolutely functionally superior to have more people watching him inform the country what to think and what to know?

00:09:45.800 And, you know, not what to think exactly, but, you know, what, what to, you know, what we need to know that they know, that sort of thing.

00:09:54.080 What can be better than having a big audience?

00:09:56.600 It's crazy.

00:09:57.820 So, I mean, he nails it on that.

00:09:59.720 That's probably the strongest thing he does that nobody will ever be able to, to equal.

00:10:05.360 You know, in the history of future presidents, I doubt there'll ever be one who can command attention the way this one can.

00:10:13.940 And see if you have the same response that I did.

00:10:18.380 So today the president was showcasing a number of, I guess, CEOs of big companies that were being especially helpful for the pandemic.

00:10:28.400 So there was CEO of UPS and CEO of this and that hospital and whatever.

00:10:34.780 And so some of the CEOs got to say their little piece.

00:10:38.180 First, a table was an earlier setting where they were sitting around the table, but with some good distance.

00:10:44.260 And, you know, and then later when they was at a podium, you know, some of them would come up and say a few words.

00:10:50.660 And I was really struck by how little charisma these top-level CEOs have compared to Trump.

00:11:01.640 You know, if you have it to play it back or anything, just look for that.

00:11:07.680 Just look at the raw wattage of the CEOs just as a charisma scale.

00:11:15.220 You know, forget about whether you like them or don't like them.

00:11:17.420 I'm just saying pure interesting charisma.

00:11:20.580 And then you watch the president come on and, like, you know, the stadium lights come on.

00:11:27.040 And he's just, it's just like a billion watts brighter than these guys who are top CEOs in the whole country.

00:11:36.820 You know, and I'm not saying this is any kind of an insult to the CEOs because they didn't get their jobs by, you know, being bad at what they do, obviously.

00:11:47.460 You know, I assume that all those CEOs are just, you know, the top-level kinds of performers or they wouldn't be in that situation.

00:11:54.660 But even they kind of disappeared a little bit when Trump was in, you know, the same zip code.

00:12:04.100 I don't think people quite understand how good he is.

00:12:10.080 History is going to be so kind to him if nothing worse happens, you know, assuming that he doesn't break anything in the future.

00:12:18.080 If all that happens is we get past this and get back to something kind of normal, he will be judged so well by how well he captured the audience and got our attention, at least for that stuff anyway.

00:12:35.720 At this moment, the death toll from the coronavirus is negative, meaning more people are alive because of it.

00:12:49.080 Now, I'm not saying that's going to stay that way, but it is a fact that the actual natural deaths that we would have had from car accidents and such has actually been studied now.

00:13:00.280 There's enough data that we can look at and say, well, how did we do for, you know, accidental deaths that week?

00:13:06.720 And I think they're down like 5,000 to 10,000.

00:13:09.760 So since the lockdown got serious, something between 5,000 and 10,000 people are alive that would have otherwise been dead.

00:13:20.640 Now, the cost of that is a little over, I think, I think it's crossed 2,000 people have died so far.

00:13:29.880 Now, you can't compare because the coronavirus is far from done, right?

00:13:34.980 So we don't know what that number grows to, and that's the only thing that matters in the long run.

00:13:39.380 But will we save another 5,000 or 10,000 lives next week?

00:13:45.480 You know, or I'm not sure if it was a one or two week period, whatever it was.

00:13:49.140 But certainly we're going to be in lockdown some more.

00:13:54.060 So wouldn't you therefore conclude that we'll get whatever we saved before would probably continue?

00:14:00.800 So we might save, I don't know, 15,000 to 30,000 lives.

00:14:07.820 I mean, at great cost, of course, because, you know, people are dying of coronavirus.

00:14:13.340 The economy is, you know, taking a hit.

00:14:15.660 So at great cost, but you have to add all the costs and the benefits.

00:14:20.500 If you're actually going to have an adult opinion about things, you have to say,

00:14:24.760 this counts, because it's all the same decision.

00:14:29.180 It caused these side benefits.

00:14:31.160 Those have to be in the calculations.

00:14:33.900 So I'd like to go on record as being the most optimistic person

00:14:39.020 who also thinks that the coronavirus is super deadly.

00:14:43.720 There are people more optimistic than me

00:14:47.700 who never thought the coronavirus was going to be worse than the flu.

00:14:52.400 So I'm not counting them.

00:14:54.300 They can have a competition within their own category.

00:14:58.580 I would like to be the biggest optimist in the category

00:15:02.180 of people who also think it's exactly the same pandemic that the experts think.

00:15:07.500 That the topside worst case actually is somewhere in the general vicinity of what the experts say.

00:15:16.400 So I believe that to be true.

00:15:18.060 I don't know it to be true.

00:15:20.580 But we're all kind of guessing, aren't we?

00:15:23.640 I don't know it to be true.

00:15:25.920 How could you?

00:15:26.560 But, you know, my years on this earth, you know, whatever brain cells I have,

00:15:33.300 have converged on that opinion fairly strongly that the downside risk is pretty tremendous

00:15:39.880 if this got out of hand.

00:15:41.280 So I believe that we have several ways out

00:15:46.960 and that if we can hold on, as the president has now moved the target date,

00:15:53.760 if we can hold on to the new target date,

00:15:56.440 we'll either have a lot more supply of things we need,

00:16:00.860 include masks, tests, ventilators.

00:16:04.520 We might have more kind of lessened serum.

00:16:10.280 You know, we might, maybe we'll have DNA tests.

00:16:12.520 We're probably getting better at social distancing.

00:16:15.560 So there's a whole bunch of stuff that can happen in the,

00:16:21.400 between now and the new deadline, which is April 30th, I believe.

00:16:27.220 So April 30th is sort of the new expect-to-be-locked-down-until-then date.

00:16:32.580 But, of course, everything is flexible based on changing data.

00:16:37.520 Now, I would like to update something that I had said earlier.

00:16:41.380 So before the president had ever picked a date

00:16:43.620 and before he had ever said, let's shoot for Easter,

00:16:48.480 I had said he should give us a date, even if it's wrong, even if it's revised,

00:16:54.580 because you'll feel better.

00:16:56.380 And it won't change what we do

00:16:58.340 because they'll always have the ability to revise anytime they want.

00:17:03.860 But you just feel better if your government said,

00:17:06.420 well, we don't know, but we're going to shoot for this.

00:17:10.700 So that was the Easter date.

00:17:13.180 Almost immediately, some of the experts were saying,

00:17:15.840 well, you know, that's sort of aspirational,

00:17:19.120 which is a word the president used today.

00:17:21.000 And when he revised it, he talked about talking to all of his experts,

00:17:27.600 considering all the options.

00:17:29.740 You know, I think the public, and this is something he did really well,

00:17:33.520 I think the public really thought he wanted to get back to work soon.

00:17:40.680 So the fact that he, you know, that you knew that was his bias,

00:17:46.540 and then he described talking to the experts and then coming to this decision,

00:17:50.680 which is very much different from where you knew his bias was.

00:17:58.280 So that gives you actually some confidence

00:17:59.900 because you can see the range of his, you know, flexible thought

00:18:03.600 and that it landed compatible with the experts.

00:18:06.900 Now, are the experts right?

00:18:08.100 Who knows?

00:18:11.660 I think in this case, they're the smart bat, 1.00

00:18:14.400 at least in terms of sizing the thing and guiding us towards solutions.

00:18:20.400 But my point is, the next several weeks,

00:18:23.180 we'll get us to probably have way more tests and masks

00:18:27.420 and hydrochloroquine and test results and stuff.

00:18:33.180 So when we go hard at it, we're going to be pretty well equipped.

00:18:35.740 So, given all that, and the fact that I think the hydrochloroquine is sort of already working,

00:18:43.840 am I right?

00:18:45.720 So my understanding is that if you get the hydroxychloroquine,

00:18:50.340 if you get it as, you know, sort of soon after you get symptoms,

00:18:55.340 your odds of never needing a ventilator are really good.

00:19:00.800 But, if they don't give it to you until you're sort of, you know, on or near the ventilator,

00:19:07.460 it still can work pretty well,

00:19:09.780 but it's not the magic that it would be if you got it early.

00:19:14.280 So, what should you expect if that's actually true versus just my anecdotal hallucinations?

00:19:24.060 Which it could be, right?

00:19:25.420 We could all be hallucinating that there's evidence for this,

00:19:29.440 but it's really just anecdotal.

00:19:31.860 So, what you would expect to see is that the number of deaths would start to level off

00:19:39.740 at the same time the number of infections was skyrocketing.

00:19:44.640 And I think you're going to start to see that.

00:19:47.640 I think maybe you've already seen the first signal of that,

00:19:51.040 but you have to wait a few days to see if it's just noise, I guess, or coincidence.

00:19:57.340 But that's what to look for, and I would expect to see that.

00:20:00.440 But, so, if the hydroxychloroquine works as we suspect,

00:20:06.520 we could get the death rate down below the point

00:20:13.120 that even though it could be a few tens of thousands of people,

00:20:18.860 we could actually get it below the point

00:20:20.960 if you net out the people who didn't die

00:20:24.600 because they're not on the road this week with drunk drivers,

00:20:27.940 you know, for that same time period.

00:20:29.220 So, my optimistic projection is that the net, all things considered,

00:20:36.580 will be under 5,000 deaths.

00:20:40.840 Now, that's not anywhere near what any expert's saying.

00:20:46.420 And by the way, I'm even calculating, you know,

00:20:50.060 just not with any science behind it,

00:20:53.500 but I'm assuming in my opinion,

00:20:56.040 I'm not forgetting any deaths from extra poverty,

00:21:00.720 from the, you know, the economic dislocation.

00:21:06.520 So, I'm going to be the super optimist on this

00:21:09.940 with the understanding you should know in advance

00:21:13.980 that almost nobody who knows what they're talking about

00:21:16.380 thinks it will be this good.

00:21:17.660 I'm kind of alone on this.

00:21:20.800 But that's what makes it fun, right?

00:21:23.640 Have you ever seen me make a prediction

00:21:25.580 in which I was completely alone

00:21:27.920 and that it turned out?

00:21:32.520 Well, some of you have.

00:21:34.880 All right.

00:21:35.220 I couldn't believe that Trump called out New York City,

00:21:41.740 not necessarily the government,

00:21:44.640 but apparently a lot of masks have been shipped to New York City,

00:21:49.700 but they seem to be maybe disappearing.

00:21:54.960 Now, that's not, and I mean by disappearing,

00:21:57.780 I mean stolen.

00:21:58.460 Now, that's not confirmed,

00:22:01.820 but what's interesting about this is that Trump,

00:22:04.920 I think Trump has a really good sort of BS detector,

00:22:10.880 you know, a crime detector.

00:22:13.100 You know, say what you will about him,

00:22:15.180 but don't you think he can sniff a,

00:22:18.000 you know, sniff out a, you know, 1.00

00:22:20.620 a little impropriety?

00:22:22.320 Like he would be good at that, don't you think?

00:22:24.940 Especially if it had to do with New York City

00:22:26.820 and let's say the underworld connection

00:22:33.720 to moving goods back and forth in New York City.

00:22:37.040 So if Trump looked at those numbers and said,

00:22:40.140 maybe those numbers are real,

00:22:43.440 but I really think the press ought to look into this

00:22:46.060 because it doesn't look real to me.

00:22:48.340 It looks like something's falling off the back of trucks.

00:22:52.800 And I don't think I could have loved more

00:22:55.600 the fact that he put that out there,

00:22:58.180 even without proof.

00:23:01.080 Because, I don't know,

00:23:03.560 if I had to put odds on it,

00:23:06.560 oh, 70% chance he's right.

00:23:09.700 Wouldn't you say?

00:23:10.480 That's worth looking into.

00:23:11.880 If you had to guess,

00:23:13.900 is Trump right,

00:23:15.800 that there is massive criminal activity

00:23:19.300 going around these, you know,

00:23:21.040 these so valuable masks,

00:23:23.600 wouldn't you kind of assume there must be,

00:23:26.640 you know,

00:23:27.000 especially in this environment

00:23:28.520 and the fact that it's probably easy

00:23:30.680 to get away with it.

00:23:33.000 Yeah, I think Trump knows,

00:23:36.120 he just might smell it from,

00:23:39.140 you know, 10 states away,

00:23:40.520 and you might be right.

00:23:41.920 Let's see what else we've got going on here.

00:23:47.920 So the experts were predicting

00:23:49.560 zero to,

00:23:51.840 no,

00:23:54.260 what was it?

00:23:56.080 From zero to

00:23:57.380 two million,

00:23:59.720 or 20,

00:24:00.100 no,

00:24:00.320 20,000 to two million or something.

00:24:02.600 200,000 to two million.

00:24:04.480 Some gigantic number.

00:24:05.520 I hope not.

00:24:10.180 Here's an idea.

00:24:12.540 So Bill Ackman,

00:24:14.100 hedge fund guy,

00:24:15.680 sometimes not that popular

00:24:17.460 in some circles.

00:24:18.520 If you're on the other end of a trade

00:24:20.200 and you lost money,

00:24:21.500 you don't like him.

00:24:22.820 But he tweets this.

00:24:27.160 And I don't think he's some big friend

00:24:29.120 to the president,

00:24:30.380 but this was a productive idea,

00:24:33.400 you know,

00:24:33.700 no matter who you are.

00:24:34.660 So listen to this.

00:24:35.980 So Bill Ackman says,

00:24:36.920 Mr. President,

00:24:37.700 in his tweet,

00:24:38.900 why don't you launch

00:24:39.920 the biggest infrastructure program

00:24:41.860 of all time now?

00:24:43.460 Roads,

00:24:44.060 bridges,

00:24:44.540 and other infrastructure

00:24:45.520 involving outdoor work.

00:24:48.000 Pretty clever,

00:24:48.780 huh?

00:24:49.480 That allows for social distancing.

00:24:53.520 That's not bad.

00:24:55.480 He says,

00:24:56.020 doing so will put Americans 1.00

00:24:57.180 back to work now

00:24:58.160 in good paying,

00:24:59.160 virus,

00:24:59.820 safe jobs.

00:25:01.360 And,

00:25:01.720 you know,

00:25:01.960 I have to say,

00:25:04.280 like,

00:25:04.620 why didn't I think of that?

00:25:06.520 You know,

00:25:06.920 you hear that idea

00:25:07.900 and the first thing

00:25:08.660 you think of is,

00:25:10.540 why didn't somebody

00:25:12.300 already say that?

00:25:13.800 Did nobody say that before?

00:25:15.400 I didn't think of it.

00:25:16.980 But,

00:25:17.980 what would be a better time

00:25:19.780 to do the biggest

00:25:20.860 bipartisan infrastructure bill

00:25:23.040 of all time?

00:25:23.720 Seriously,

00:25:26.500 what would be

00:25:27.480 the better time

00:25:29.300 to get a bipartisan,

00:25:30.740 enormous infrastructure bill

00:25:32.460 and just put masses

00:25:33.900 of people back to work

00:25:35.100 outdoors?

00:25:36.720 It's kind of brilliant.

00:25:40.000 If I'm being honest,

00:25:41.540 there's nothing wrong

00:25:42.280 with that idea, right?

00:25:44.060 Okay.

00:25:48.580 Of course,

00:25:50.200 with all this big news,

00:25:51.540 CNN decided that

00:25:52.660 the thing they would

00:25:53.300 focus on is that

00:25:54.580 when the president

00:25:55.800 was sparring

00:25:56.560 with a member

00:25:59.580 of the press,

00:26:00.940 he referred to her

00:26:03.320 as part of a group,

00:26:04.880 meaning the press

00:26:06.180 that he doesn't like,

00:26:07.580 as you people,

00:26:08.460 which was immediately

00:26:10.700 interpreted as

00:26:11.900 what?

00:26:14.320 What was that?

00:26:15.200 That's right.

00:26:16.200 Yes,

00:26:16.440 it was interpreted

00:26:17.000 as racist.

00:26:18.880 So,

00:26:19.460 that's what CNN

00:26:20.120 decided to focus on.

00:26:22.460 So,

00:26:22.920 you got that.

00:26:25.300 I would like to read

00:26:26.380 to you

00:26:26.880 before I take

00:26:30.240 your questions

00:26:30.900 a tweet thread

00:26:33.180 that might make

00:26:34.400 you feel better.

00:26:35.680 So,

00:26:35.960 some of you

00:26:36.420 already saw this,

00:26:37.260 but I think

00:26:38.000 it's worth

00:26:38.420 reading it to you

00:26:40.140 again.

00:26:42.300 And,

00:26:42.920 it goes like this.

00:26:44.820 The coronavirus

00:26:45.460 is acting like

00:26:46.580 an unwelcome

00:26:47.340 Olympics

00:26:47.960 for scientists,

00:26:49.280 doctors,

00:26:49.720 engineers,

00:26:50.700 entrepreneurs,

00:26:51.420 techies,

00:26:51.780 leaders,

00:26:52.100 parents,

00:26:52.680 and ordinary

00:26:53.380 heroes of every

00:26:54.320 kind,

00:26:55.380 setting records

00:26:56.220 in every event.

00:26:58.340 You can almost

00:26:59.380 feel humanity

00:27:00.340 getting smarter.

00:27:02.400 The most capable

00:27:03.180 among us

00:27:03.840 are forming

00:27:04.520 lasting connections,

00:27:06.200 sharing best practices,

00:27:07.400 learning shortcuts,

00:27:09.720 building a working

00:27:10.700 trust,

00:27:11.860 creating tools

00:27:12.620 at blazing speeds.

00:27:15.280 One way to imagine

00:27:16.600 the future

00:27:17.220 is that the economy

00:27:18.700 will lose

00:27:19.420 trillions of dollars

00:27:20.520 and we'll never

00:27:21.920 get it back.

00:27:23.780 Another filter

00:27:24.820 on the future

00:27:25.400 is that energy

00:27:26.860 doesn't disappear.

00:27:28.440 It only relocates

00:27:29.940 and changes form.

00:27:31.740 A huge amount

00:27:32.620 of energy

00:27:33.040 is leaving

00:27:33.780 the economy.

00:27:34.520 We know

00:27:35.720 that for sure.

00:27:37.680 What is less

00:27:38.660 clear

00:27:39.200 is where

00:27:40.500 that energy

00:27:41.100 is going.

00:27:42.580 My filter

00:27:43.180 shows a global

00:27:44.220 mind

00:27:45.120 being formed

00:27:46.500 in real time

00:27:47.360 to fight

00:27:48.480 our common

00:27:49.000 enemy,

00:27:49.900 the virus.

00:27:50.980 That mind

00:27:51.720 needs a lot

00:27:52.340 of energy

00:27:52.840 like a newborn

00:27:53.960 and wow

00:27:55.460 is it getting it.

00:27:57.400 I had resisted

00:27:58.740 the common

00:27:59.280 pundit prediction

00:28:00.360 that everything

00:28:01.800 would be different

00:28:02.760 after this crisis

00:28:04.500 because I expect

00:28:05.480 a speedy recovery

00:28:06.380 but I revised

00:28:08.260 my opinion.

00:28:10.400 While I still

00:28:11.460 expect a speedy

00:28:12.540 recovery,

00:28:13.560 I also think

00:28:14.420 this experience

00:28:15.180 is rewiring

00:28:16.280 the collective

00:28:19.540 mind of civilization.

00:28:21.460 We probably

00:28:22.300 crammed years

00:28:23.440 of innovation

00:28:24.100 into months.

00:28:26.060 We'll be coming

00:28:26.800 out of this

00:28:27.280 with a lot

00:28:28.440 of extra

00:28:29.380 knowledge

00:28:29.900 about our

00:28:30.440 systems

00:28:30.980 and about

00:28:31.940 ourselves.

00:28:33.060 That energy

00:28:33.740 will get

00:28:34.200 channeled back

00:28:35.080 into the

00:28:35.820 economy.

00:28:38.060 The coming

00:28:38.980 weeks will

00:28:39.540 test us all

00:28:40.520 but when it

00:28:41.780 is over

00:28:42.220 we will be

00:28:42.960 far smarter

00:28:43.820 and far

00:28:45.040 tougher

00:28:45.420 in every way.

00:28:48.120 As Steve Jobs

00:28:49.400 proved,

00:28:50.080 the right

00:28:50.360 thoughts

00:28:50.820 and the right

00:28:51.380 skill stack

00:28:52.240 can turn

00:28:53.300 into trillions

00:28:54.000 of dollars.

00:28:56.340 Civilization's 0.56

00:28:56.940 skill stack

00:28:57.520 is undergoing

00:28:58.180 a major

00:28:58.780 upgrade.

00:28:59.360 watch how

00:29:00.660 much energy

00:29:01.320 that later

00:29:02.180 pumps into

00:29:02.820 the economy.

00:29:04.360 It will be

00:29:05.060 amazing.

00:29:07.040 So,

00:29:08.040 that's my

00:29:09.540 positive thoughts

00:29:10.300 for the day.

00:29:12.040 If any of you

00:29:12.900 have any...

00:29:13.440 Sorry,

00:29:14.060 I couldn't

00:29:14.480 quite hear you.

00:29:15.520 Could you

00:29:15.820 please repeat...

00:29:17.320 If any of you

00:29:22.120 have a

00:29:22.640 question,

00:29:25.000 I would be

00:29:25.800 happy to

00:29:26.640 to take

00:29:28.500 a shot

00:29:28.800 at it.

00:29:32.420 All right.

00:29:33.540 Yeah,

00:29:33.820 that was a

00:29:34.500 tweet thread

00:29:35.640 that I wrote

00:29:36.180 earlier today

00:29:37.960 so it's

00:29:38.340 pinned to my

00:29:39.080 Twitter feed

00:29:40.620 if you want

00:29:40.980 to see it.

00:29:42.780 And,

00:29:43.920 yeah,

00:29:44.220 somebody says

00:29:44.800 the energy

00:29:45.260 released thanks

00:29:46.360 to deregulation.

00:29:48.260 Yeah,

00:29:48.500 one wonders

00:29:49.120 if you can

00:29:49.780 put that genie

00:29:50.660 back in the

00:29:51.280 bottle so easily.

00:29:52.140 that we

00:29:54.140 all kind of

00:29:54.780 witnessed

00:29:55.200 something

00:29:55.920 incredible

00:29:56.500 which is

00:29:57.520 what humans

00:29:58.500 can do

00:29:59.100 if friction

00:30:00.560 is removed.

00:30:02.280 Friction in

00:30:03.040 terms of

00:30:03.420 government

00:30:03.900 requirements.

00:30:06.000 Now,

00:30:06.200 of course,

00:30:06.480 that's dangerous

00:30:07.060 but it

00:30:09.140 was pretty

00:30:09.680 amazing.

00:30:10.840 I mean,

00:30:10.980 we were right

00:30:11.340 in the middle

00:30:11.680 of it and

00:30:12.300 watching it

00:30:12.960 is sort

00:30:14.400 of a

00:30:14.900 privilege

00:30:16.200 to be able

00:30:16.840 to watch

00:30:17.300 this degree

00:30:18.680 of human

00:30:19.480 capability

00:30:21.240 coming together

00:30:22.000 at this

00:30:22.360 time.

00:30:25.060 What does

00:30:25.820 the ideal

00:30:26.380 government

00:30:26.880 look like?

00:30:28.340 Well,

00:30:28.740 I think we

00:30:29.200 might be

00:30:29.620 evolving into

00:30:30.380 it,

00:30:30.880 oddly enough.

00:30:33.700 Here's what

00:30:34.400 I mean

00:30:34.800 when I talk

00:30:35.360 about the

00:30:36.260 energy that's

00:30:37.040 being taken

00:30:37.680 out of the

00:30:38.420 economy and

00:30:39.220 then stored

00:30:40.100 into the

00:30:40.640 global mind.

00:30:42.380 Imagine,

00:30:43.100 if you will,

00:30:43.520 that before

00:30:43.940 this crisis

00:30:44.640 that people

00:30:46.400 were sort

00:30:47.060 of like

00:30:47.380 independent

00:30:47.880 islands.

00:30:48.860 You know,

00:30:49.020 each person,

00:30:49.680 just think of

00:30:50.160 them as an

00:30:50.900 island.

00:30:51.240 Just visualize

00:30:52.060 this.

00:30:53.360 And some

00:30:53.900 of those

00:30:54.220 islands had

00:30:54.880 bridges

00:30:56.140 connecting them.

00:30:57.500 So now

00:30:57.920 in your

00:30:58.160 mind,

00:30:58.640 connect a

00:30:59.340 few of

00:30:59.620 the islands

00:31:00.040 to each

00:31:00.580 other,

00:31:01.240 but make

00:31:01.720 sure not

00:31:02.280 all of

00:31:02.660 the islands

00:31:03.140 are connected

00:31:03.700 to all the

00:31:04.240 other islands.

00:31:04.960 You can get

00:31:06.580 from every

00:31:07.040 island to

00:31:07.500 every other

00:31:07.960 island,

00:31:08.500 but maybe

00:31:08.900 you have

00:31:09.140 to do a

00:31:09.560 two-hop

00:31:10.060 or something.

00:31:11.660 But what

00:31:12.140 this crisis

00:31:13.040 did is it

00:31:14.740 took those

00:31:15.200 existing islands

00:31:16.200 and suddenly

00:31:17.500 everybody could

00:31:18.880 talk to other

00:31:19.580 people and

00:31:20.760 they did,

00:31:21.900 and they

00:31:22.200 did it

00:31:22.480 easily because

00:31:23.040 of the

00:31:23.240 internet,

00:31:23.960 and we

00:31:24.220 formed these

00:31:24.820 connections

00:31:25.420 instantly that

00:31:27.200 didn't exist

00:31:27.740 before.

00:31:28.780 So there

00:31:29.040 were a

00:31:30.100 whole bunch

00:31:30.540 of bridges

00:31:31.160 that just

00:31:31.700 went sprigging

00:31:32.720 out from

00:31:33.160 each island

00:31:33.740 so that

00:31:34.700 everybody now

00:31:35.500 was only one

00:31:36.300 jump away

00:31:37.280 from everybody

00:31:37.880 else.

00:31:38.520 You didn't

00:31:38.960 have to do

00:31:39.440 a two-hop

00:31:40.080 to get to

00:31:40.540 anybody.

00:31:41.120 You could

00:31:41.580 pick up a

00:31:42.080 phone,

00:31:42.460 you could send

00:31:43.200 a message,

00:31:43.720 you could DM,

00:31:44.300 and you

00:31:45.000 were talking

00:31:45.400 to anybody

00:31:45.880 in the world.

00:31:46.940 And if they

00:31:47.320 needed you

00:31:47.840 and you

00:31:48.120 needed them

00:31:48.640 and you

00:31:48.920 recognized it,

00:31:49.560 you connected

00:31:50.080 immediately.

00:31:52.040 And if you

00:31:53.020 visualize those

00:31:54.260 islands,

00:31:54.940 first with just

00:31:55.680 a few bridges

00:31:56.360 but enough

00:31:57.140 to get from

00:31:57.640 anywhere to

00:31:58.080 anywhere,

00:31:58.920 and then

00:31:59.280 suddenly bridges

00:32:00.540 from every

00:32:01.320 island in

00:32:02.000 every direction,

00:32:03.400 that's where

00:32:04.180 all the energy

00:32:04.780 went.

00:32:05.920 So all the

00:32:07.300 energy that we

00:32:08.000 had been putting

00:32:08.660 into the economy,

00:32:10.380 we suddenly

00:32:10.920 just turned

00:32:12.120 in the same

00:32:12.640 direction as

00:32:13.540 one,

00:32:14.660 following our

00:32:15.360 leaders who

00:32:16.220 were pointing

00:32:17.000 us at the

00:32:17.500 common enemy,

00:32:18.260 the virus.

00:32:19.660 And over

00:32:21.360 several weeks,

00:32:22.440 we've taken

00:32:23.400 all of that

00:32:24.460 energy that

00:32:25.100 would have

00:32:25.420 otherwise been

00:32:26.200 put into the

00:32:27.200 various parts

00:32:28.180 of the economy,

00:32:29.460 focused on

00:32:30.540 this one

00:32:31.700 incredibly

00:32:32.520 important task,

00:32:34.700 and something

00:32:36.400 amazing is

00:32:37.040 happening.

00:32:38.400 And I

00:32:39.100 think that

00:32:39.780 because we

00:32:41.900 formed this

00:32:42.580 global mind

00:32:43.440 if you

00:32:43.820 will,

00:32:44.440 after we

00:32:45.000 beat the

00:32:45.440 virus,

00:32:46.540 those

00:32:46.840 connections,

00:32:47.800 not every

00:32:48.340 one of

00:32:48.620 them,

00:32:49.420 but many

00:32:49.860 of them

00:32:50.120 will remain.

00:32:51.580 And we'll

00:32:51.880 have a,

00:32:52.980 let's say,

00:32:53.780 a shared

00:32:54.320 civilization

00:32:54.980 memory of

00:32:56.660 what worked

00:32:57.240 and what

00:32:57.560 didn't.

00:32:58.240 We'll all

00:32:58.880 see a whole

00:32:59.380 bunch of

00:33:00.080 rapid models

00:33:01.840 and tests.

00:33:02.720 We'll see how

00:33:03.200 A-B testing

00:33:03.940 works.

00:33:04.880 We're all

00:33:05.420 going to be

00:33:05.740 better decision

00:33:06.460 makers.

00:33:07.360 Because one of

00:33:08.000 the weird

00:33:08.260 things is,

00:33:08.900 this has

00:33:10.020 been like

00:33:10.520 a Harvard

00:33:11.960 business

00:33:12.500 case in

00:33:14.060 how to

00:33:14.300 make

00:33:14.460 decisions

00:33:14.940 with

00:33:15.980 inadequate

00:33:16.540 information

00:33:17.260 that's

00:33:17.740 changing

00:33:18.080 all the

00:33:18.400 time and

00:33:19.000 lots of

00:33:19.360 interests and

00:33:20.400 lots of

00:33:20.740 variables.

00:33:22.020 And because

00:33:22.640 it's such a

00:33:23.700 shared

00:33:24.140 experience,

00:33:25.800 we all

00:33:26.580 were engaged

00:33:27.660 in the

00:33:28.420 Harvard

00:33:28.880 business

00:33:29.360 case.

00:33:30.160 We all

00:33:30.620 got to see

00:33:31.120 all the

00:33:31.480 variables.

00:33:32.360 We all

00:33:32.600 got to

00:33:32.960 say,

00:33:33.120 if this

00:33:34.500 were me,

00:33:35.720 what would

00:33:36.100 I do?

00:33:38.380 How would

00:33:39.000 I handle

00:33:39.380 this?

00:33:40.280 And so

00:33:40.540 we all

00:33:41.360 sort of

00:33:41.780 learned

00:33:42.220 almost like

00:33:42.940 a college

00:33:43.780 class in

00:33:44.700 crisis

00:33:45.260 management.

00:33:46.460 If you

00:33:46.960 think about

00:33:47.480 it,

00:33:47.740 it would

00:33:48.080 take you

00:33:48.380 a while

00:33:48.700 to make

00:33:49.980 a list,

00:33:51.500 but if

00:33:52.020 you thought

00:33:52.380 about all

00:33:52.780 the concepts

00:33:54.060 that are

00:33:55.340 really good

00:33:56.000 ones,

00:33:56.560 the things

00:33:56.940 that you'll

00:33:57.620 learn at

00:33:58.380 the end

00:33:58.640 of the

00:33:58.900 cycle,

00:33:59.640 because it's

00:34:00.000 like taking

00:34:00.480 we're all

00:34:01.140 at college

00:34:01.760 basically.

00:34:02.260 we're

00:34:03.260 learning a

00:34:03.800 ton about

00:34:04.500 how do

00:34:05.380 you approach

00:34:05.880 these

00:34:06.160 situations?

00:34:07.160 What do

00:34:07.360 you do?

00:34:08.020 How do

00:34:08.320 you get

00:34:08.520 ready?

00:34:09.320 How do

00:34:09.620 you assess

00:34:10.020 risk?

00:34:10.960 How do

00:34:11.400 you manage

00:34:11.800 risk?

00:34:12.160 How do

00:34:12.320 you balance

00:34:12.820 things when

00:34:13.940 these kinds

00:34:15.700 of lives

00:34:16.100 are at

00:34:16.400 the risk

00:34:16.820 versus

00:34:17.200 these

00:34:17.520 kinds?

00:34:18.720 How do

00:34:19.300 you apply

00:34:19.820 ingenuity

00:34:21.780 to the

00:34:22.120 problem

00:34:22.500 versus money

00:34:24.000 versus all

00:34:24.620 those things?

00:34:25.920 So I

00:34:27.880 think we're

00:34:28.300 going to

00:34:28.460 come out

00:34:28.720 of this

00:34:29.020 with a

00:34:30.380 global

00:34:30.820 mind

00:34:31.380 that's

00:34:31.900 grown

00:34:32.880 all

00:34:33.160 these

00:34:33.360 new

00:34:33.700 neurons

00:34:34.340 that

00:34:35.660 many

00:34:36.360 of

00:34:36.480 them

00:34:36.600 will

00:34:36.720 be

00:34:36.880 permanent

00:34:37.220 and we'll

00:34:38.420 just know how to solve problems differently.

00:34:40.600 We'll have a different, maybe a different feeling about red tape.

00:34:44.220 Maybe we won't tolerate it.

00:34:46.480 Perhaps we'll have procedures that we do in good times and a set of procedures that immediately

00:34:51.140 go into effect when there's a crisis.

00:34:53.640 And at the very least, this situation has surfaced who the leaders are and who the capable people are and who the people really, you know, you can depend on in a crunch.

00:35:09.120 And I think some of that's permanent, there will be people within corporate America, probably people in government, whose entire careers will be determined by how they get through the next several months.

00:35:23.000 You know, just the way 9-11 made a Rudy Giuliani, this is not just New York, although they're getting hit hardest. This is all of us. So every mayor, every governor, every senator, every representative, every person on the task force, they're all on audition for a better job or more responsibility later.

00:35:46.400 So, if nothing else, we're going through the greatest talent filter our country has ever experienced.

00:35:56.540 That's good.

00:35:57.920 And I do think, even though I'm a bit of a cynic and a skeptic, I do think that some of what we're learning about being able to work together is going to last.

00:36:10.620 Not all of it.

00:36:11.640 You know, there's going to be a lot of goodwill that's happening now because people understand there are higher priorities than arguing about, you know, politics.

00:36:21.700 And most of that will go away.

00:36:24.080 You know, as soon as we get back to normal, we just go back to being humans.

00:36:28.260 We get a little tribal because we would have that luxury. 0.83

00:36:31.900 But I don't think it's all going away.

00:36:33.300 I think there's going to be a good, solid 10% that is a lasting civilization memory that says, yeah, I'm arguing with you now.

00:36:47.100 But when, you know, when the stuff goes down, you and I are going to be on the same team.

00:36:53.780 I've always thought that that's why the United States and France, for example, will always be best buddies, you know, internationally, no matter how much we argue with them.

00:37:05.640 And, you know, if you don't like them for this or their attitude or their policies or their socialists, whatever, you know, we might bicker like siblings forever.

00:37:14.920 But the one thing that we sort of believe about each other, you know, France and the United States, is that based on history, we would have each other's backs.

00:37:26.520 That feels permanent, doesn't it?

00:37:28.940 You know, when was the last time, I mean, in your lifetime, when was the last time you had to have France's back or France had to have our back, you know, in skirmishes and Iraq and stuff?

00:37:40.360 But those were sort of, you know, over there.

00:37:42.140 I'm not sure if that was a case of anybody having anybody's backs.

00:37:47.020 But you know we would, right?

00:37:49.060 And part of the reason that we would, like you know with 100% certainty, if you live in America, that if France were, you know, seriously threatened by an external threat, the next thing that France would hear is, could you step out of the way?

00:38:05.780 Could you, you know, we love that you want to fight this out on your own, but seriously, just step out of the way.

00:38:14.160 Give us 10 minutes.

00:38:15.680 And the United States would take care of business because we would always have France's back. 0.94

00:38:19.880 And the reason we would is because they've had our back, right, historically and vice versa.

00:38:26.040 So that kind of feeling can last, it can last generations.

00:38:33.700 And there might be, this is the hopeful part of me, there might be just a little bit of this experience when we get to the end of it that we just remember as a society.

00:38:44.100 We just remember that we're capable.

00:38:45.760 We're just capable of being on the same side when it's important.

00:38:51.300 So that's the last thing that I'd like to leave with you.

00:38:54.620 And now I'd like you to go off to a really good night's sleep.

00:38:59.980 And I will see you in the morning.

00:39:02.100 You know what time.

00:39:03.600 Make sure you've got your simultaneous sipping beverage.

00:39:07.980 Have a good night.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 30, 2020

Episode 880 Scott Adams： Enjoy the Simultaneous Swaddle and DIY Ventilator Instructions

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