Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 884 Scott Adams： Taking Questions and Solving Pandemics Like it's Nothing

00:00:00.680 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum 1.00

00:00:08.000 Hey everybody, come on in here. It's time for Swaddling in a Warm Blanket with Scott.

00:00:16.660 He came to the right place if that's what you wanted to do. It's all going to happen here.

00:00:21.480 I've been taking questions on Twitter, meaning I tweeted to tell people to ask me questions.

00:00:27.340 And I will be answering these questions. But first, let me give you an idea of what's new and exciting.

00:00:36.980 Number one, people are starting to wise up to the fact that masks might be a good idea after all.

00:00:46.420 Who saw that coming? All of us.

00:00:49.920 So it's sort of a crazy, bizarre thing watching our experts slowly start to agree with the public.

00:01:02.380 It's supposed to work the other way around, right?

00:01:05.280 Aren't the experts supposed to have a position and then the ignorant public eventually learns what the experts teach them?

00:01:14.120 Well, that would be great, except we just did it the opposite way, where all the non-experts, when they heard that masks don't help you, but they do help professionals, but they don't help you.

00:01:26.980 Half of the world who's not an expert said, well, I'm no expert.

00:01:32.100 I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure masks help a little, and of course the non-experts were right.

00:01:44.000 But that doesn't mean you should always listen to non-experts, just because in this obvious example they were right.

00:01:50.860 For example, one of the most promising treatments apparently is this hydroxychloroquine.

00:01:59.720 And if you would listen to the experts, they would have told you, don't get so excited about this.

00:02:09.040 But if you'd listen to the non-experts, let's say Trump himself or me or many people on Twitter, they had been saying hydroxychloroquine is great.

00:02:22.180 So we might find out again whether or not the experts were right, downplay it a little bit, or the people who don't know anything about anything were right.

00:02:34.780 But that would just be two things.

00:02:37.320 I mean, you can't make some kind of a big general statement just because it might be that ignorant people were right about two things that experts were wrong about.

00:02:48.220 But that's just two things.

00:02:50.340 Let's talk about those projections.

00:02:53.940 Because if there's one thing you can count on, it's that experts are good at projections and making models.

00:03:03.040 If you've been watching me for a while, you know I can't stop talking about how accurate complicated projection models are.

00:03:11.440 I mean, is there anything they can't do?

00:03:15.720 Yes.

00:03:16.640 People we don't know do things we don't understand, and then they produce graphs.

00:03:22.340 These graphs are made by experts, and we should trust them.

00:03:26.140 But when we saw the graphs, there was one, well, just a small quibble that I have.

00:03:34.400 But again, I'm no expert.

00:03:36.160 I'm no expert.

00:03:37.140 It's not like I'm some epidemiologist, because I'm not.

00:03:43.680 But when I listened to the experts talk about their own graphs, one of the little tidbits that Dr. Birx threw in there was that when they were calculating what the curve could be without any abatement,

00:03:58.280 you know, the steep one where, you know, two million people might die.

00:04:02.760 And then they compare it to the lower curve, where if you do everything right, you know, you really work hard and do everything right,

00:04:13.300 you might be able to get it down to 100,000, 200,000 people dead.

00:04:17.420 And then the good doctor threw in this little tidbit, that at first I thought I heard it wrong.

00:04:25.740 And she said, but of course, these numbers treat New York in the average.

00:04:32.420 So New York, which is completely different than anything that's happening anywhere in the country, you know, there are a few other hot spots that have their problems.

00:04:41.720 But New York is, what, half of all the problem?

00:04:45.660 And New York is an especially steep curve.

00:04:47.900 What kind of an average do you get when you take a whole big country that mostly doesn't have too many problems but a few little warm spots?

00:04:59.620 And then you throw in this one data point that's as big as all of the other data points, and it's just one city.

00:05:07.080 And then you take the average.

00:05:09.940 That's the most worthless number you could ever have.

00:05:13.320 And I don't think I'm interpreting this.

00:05:15.680 I believe she said that directly, criticizing their own graph.

00:05:20.120 She wanted us to know, quite reasonably, wanted us to know that New York was in the average.

00:05:27.580 Now, if you don't, you know, if you're not, let's say, conversant with modeling and math and spreadsheets and stuff,

00:05:35.880 maybe you didn't even catch that.

00:05:38.800 Maybe you didn't catch that.

00:05:40.120 But what would have been far more, let's say, clear would be one model that's just for New York

00:05:47.640 and then another model that maybe is everything else because everything else is so different from New York.

00:05:53.600 And then that everything else, I think, would look a lot lower than their lowest curve.

00:05:59.960 And then New York, if we try hard and put, you know, super resources into it, well, maybe we can get that down as well.

00:06:12.120 Somebody says she seems credible.

00:06:14.000 You know, she's very qualified, of course.

00:06:17.180 I was listening to it today while I was walking instead of watching it.

00:06:21.880 And somebody, I'd heard somebody say that she has a Valley Girl up talk, and I'd never noticed it before.

00:06:29.840 And I think that when you watch her live, you don't hear it the same way.

00:06:34.240 But if you hear, if you just listen to her, she has a voice that does not suggest scientific excellence.

00:06:45.020 And, you know, somebody's going to say, oh, I'm being sexist, but it has nothing to do with that.

00:06:52.680 You know, you could put a man into the same situation and be exactly the same comment.

00:06:57.300 It's just there's a certain style of talking that sounds authoritative, male or female.

00:07:03.160 It has nothing to do with gender.

00:07:04.960 And she has the other kind.

00:07:08.180 But I'm sure she's very capable.

00:07:10.520 Everybody says good things about her.

00:07:11.820 So, but her voice, her voice maybe could be a little bit, a little bit more professional sounding.

00:07:21.380 Very small quibble.

00:07:23.680 But anyway, that was to whoever said she sounds credible.

00:07:27.460 Yes, she does in terms, she sounds credible in terms of expertise, of course.

00:07:34.280 So here's the thing.

00:07:35.500 I'm still going to bet that the number of deaths are lower than their lowest estimate.

00:07:41.820 And that if you net out the people who didn't die because we shut everything down, which is going to be in the tens of thousands.

00:07:51.080 Probably tens of thousands of people won't die in car accidents, won't drown in pools.

00:07:56.720 Well, I don't know about pools, but a whole range of things, they won't be getting killed at.

00:08:01.780 But, so, I'm still going to say 5,000 net.

00:08:07.740 Gross deaths might exceed that, but net, I'll say 5,000.

00:08:11.840 Now, you should not take my estimate to be likely, because what do I know?

00:08:20.060 I'm just the guy who's been right about, okay, everything so far.

00:08:23.660 But that doesn't mean it's going to continue.

00:08:27.880 All right, so, is it my imagination, or are people definitely being nicer?

00:08:36.360 President Trump seems to be modeling a little bit of nicer behavior.

00:08:41.920 He did an extended interactions with Jim Acosta, which was not ideal.

00:08:47.540 But, you could easily imagine it would have been worse.

00:08:53.860 So, just watching the president calling Jim Acosta Jim, you know, he just used his first name a few times.

00:09:00.900 And he did allow him to ask his questions, and he pushed back.

00:09:04.740 But it was all way more polite than you're used to.

00:09:07.660 Likewise, when we found out that, unfortunately, Chris Cuomo tested positive for the virus, 0.99

00:09:17.540 I didn't see anybody acting political or like a jerk. 0.98

00:09:21.640 I'm sure there were some, because it's the internet. 0.98

00:09:24.980 But mostly people were just saying, you know, get well soon.

00:09:28.660 And that's exactly what I want to say.

00:09:31.340 No time for partisanship.

00:09:32.900 All right, somebody says, only 5,000, we're already at 4,000.

00:09:41.180 No, listen to me carefully, because when you come back and tell me I'm wrong, this is the key point.

00:09:48.540 We're not at 4,000 net.

00:09:52.040 Net, we're actually negative.

00:09:53.980 So, at this moment, of course, this will change.

00:09:57.160 But at this moment, more people have been saved than have died.

00:10:01.760 Meaning that people would have died in car accidents if we'd been driving to work, etc.

00:10:06.780 So, we're actually ahead in lives.

00:10:10.160 I'm not saying that will last, but that's where we are.

00:10:13.520 We're actually in negative deaths.

00:10:16.280 Net.

00:10:19.520 60 hours ago, you said 4,000.

00:10:22.680 God, I knew this was going to happen.

00:10:24.520 Everybody's going to misremember what I said and then come back to tell me I'm wrong.

00:10:31.480 Isn't it bad enough that I'm probably going to be wrong by 100,000, according to the experts?

00:10:37.040 Can't you live with that?

00:10:39.580 That, in theory, I should be wrong by like 100,000, at least.

00:10:44.720 If you're coming back, this doesn't bother the heck out of me.

00:10:47.880 If somebody comes back and says, you said, and it wasn't what I said, I know that's going to happen.

00:10:54.640 Why am I cranky?

00:10:55.800 I just took a nap.

00:10:57.400 I just woke up from a nap.

00:10:59.620 All right.

00:11:00.260 I got some questions here, which I will answer.

00:11:07.400 Jen Texter says, do you think Trump now needs a behavioral psychologist on his panel to get us through the anxiety and stress?

00:11:16.440 Well, that's my job.

00:11:18.960 That's what I'm here for.

00:11:20.720 I'm to get you through your stress.

00:11:23.000 Is it working?

00:11:27.600 I have to admit, I'm losing a little bit of confidence in the experts, but I think we're in the right path, actually.

00:11:39.880 Erica says, I just need calm.

00:11:41.780 I cannot take the press and the hatred and snark anymore.

00:11:44.920 Will it ever stop?

00:11:46.440 Well, honestly, it looks like there's less than ever compared to our normal.

00:11:53.340 I mean, normally they're trying to impeach the president.

00:11:56.100 And today they're just wondering if he did the right thing as soon as he could have.

00:12:01.180 I mean, think about it.

00:12:02.740 It wasn't long ago they were saying he should be kicked out of office and impeached and he was a tool of Russia. 0.89

00:12:07.780 That's bad.

00:12:09.000 What they're criticizing him today for is, well, you know, he maybe eats up a little too much camera time communicating with the public.

00:12:19.820 Okay, that's it?

00:12:22.820 That's it?

00:12:24.440 You know, if you look at the nature of the complaints this week, they're very small.

00:12:28.820 They're kind of numerous because they need to fill up, you know, fill up the page and stuff.

00:12:34.300 But they're so small.

00:12:36.340 He did the right thing.

00:12:37.680 And nobody did the right thing faster than any other country.

00:12:42.600 But hypothetically, had he known what he didn't know, he could have done it sooner.

00:12:47.300 Those are the kinds of complaints that people are making.

00:12:51.660 They're not very deep.

00:12:52.540 David Angel says, what makes the virus models any better than the climate change models?

00:13:00.060 Well, I'll tell you, David.

00:13:01.800 The further out you go in time and the more variables you have, the worse your model, as a general rule.

00:13:09.800 The virus models are really short term.

00:13:11.880 They're actually like weeks compared to the climate models that are, you know, decades, 80 years, 100 years.

00:13:20.500 And I would think that the virus model has far fewer variables, I think, right?

00:13:30.440 I mean, I haven't looked at it in that level, but you'd think a virus model, they're just going to say, I don't know, six variables.

00:13:40.140 How many could there be?

00:13:41.860 Whereas the climate seems more like infinite variables.

00:13:44.740 So I'm not saying the virus models are correct.

00:13:47.240 But I do think, you know, the experts in Trump and Fauci, they had the worst time trying to explain to the public this simple concept.

00:13:59.080 And it was making me crazy because they kept repeating it over and over.

00:14:01.920 And you're probably already sick of it, which is that the models don't tell you what's going to happen. 0.95

00:14:06.900 They tried to explain this a million times.

00:14:09.280 Now, because I've done lots of financial modeling, you know, I'm automatically on that page.

00:14:15.400 The model, the prediction doesn't tell you what's going to happen.

00:14:19.040 It's going to tell you sort of directionally where things will go.

00:14:22.920 Is it real bad?

00:14:23.940 Is it a little bad?

00:14:25.800 And, you know, if you make this kind of change, you'll sort of generally go that way.

00:14:29.820 They're very, very approximate.

00:14:31.320 So the models are doing their job of scaring people to, you know, to comply.

00:14:39.000 But I wouldn't look for accuracy, even in the short term.

00:14:43.120 They are, however, useful.

00:14:45.780 So who is it who said no prediction?

00:14:49.280 Somebody said something like, there's a famous quote, like,

00:14:54.060 no predictions are accurate, but all predictions are useful.

00:14:57.120 All right.

00:14:59.920 Something like that.

00:15:02.120 I mean, Nola Jody says, I'm in New Orleans.

00:15:05.200 I drove around to different hospitals.

00:15:06.600 They all appear dead.

00:15:07.600 Ghost towns.

00:15:08.240 Why?

00:15:10.360 I don't know.

00:15:12.540 I would think that all the activity is going to be concentrated in a few hospitals.

00:15:19.480 So maybe it was a different hospital.

00:15:21.260 I don't know.

00:15:22.860 What ratio of doctors to beds are needed?

00:15:25.720 That's a good question.

00:15:26.620 What would you think, without knowing anything,

00:15:28.760 if we just had to guess how many beds, let's say that means patients,

00:15:37.680 how many patients can one doctor handle?

00:15:40.580 That's a good question, isn't it?

00:15:42.520 I have no idea.

00:15:44.460 Because, you know, obviously it depends.

00:15:47.060 But if, let's say, you were taking the average of these COVID-19 patients,

00:15:52.480 you know, and you averaged in X number need ventilation, X number don't.

00:15:57.360 How many could one doctor handle, let's say, you know, in any given day during an emergency?

00:16:07.520 Fifty?

00:16:09.020 Because, remember, they're working long hours and they're really hitting it.

00:16:12.500 You know, they're not dawdling.

00:16:14.160 So maybe one doctor could do fifty?

00:16:17.300 Is that way too high or way too low?

00:16:19.040 I have no idea.

00:16:19.640 Pancakes or waffles?

00:16:25.880 Neither.

00:16:29.540 My opinion on today's briefing.

00:16:31.220 I thought the beginning of the briefing was very strong.

00:16:35.520 And Trump's part in particular, he did very well.

00:16:39.260 I thought it went too long and maybe he took too many questions.

00:16:42.260 And that it seemed to, oh, look at all the estimates for how many patients a doctor can handle.

00:16:50.580 Thirty to one, ten, all kinds of estimates.

00:16:54.880 All right, so, I think the president probably should have kept that as shorter, but it was generally good.

00:17:04.040 Let me tell you what they are still failing at completely.

00:17:07.600 So, the members of the press, they're so weak compared to the government now.

00:17:15.360 I don't know if that's just because of the era of Trump or whatever.

00:17:20.240 But they're asking all these questions of the administration, and the administration is just not answering them.

00:17:26.880 And it goes like this, this form of the question.

00:17:30.740 How many ventilators do you think we'll need, and how many do we have?

00:17:37.600 You know, including the ones that are coming.

00:17:39.780 That's like the whole question, right?

00:17:42.040 Now, you could ask that same question again for masks.

00:17:44.980 How many do we need?

00:17:47.460 How many do we have coming?

00:17:50.080 You know, I mean, you could add a little detail, but that's basically it, right?

00:17:53.100 And for each of the different components, the hydroxychloroquine.

00:17:57.800 And the reporters keep trying to ask that question in all kinds of forms.

00:18:03.860 And even one of them was smart enough to say, shouldn't there be somebody whose job it is just to be measuring that stuff so that everybody knows what we have and what we need and report it out?

00:18:16.640 Which is, of course, exactly what I've been saying for a while.

00:18:19.720 Now, Mike Pence's answer is that we have that person.

00:18:21.940 And he named the person.

00:18:24.160 Works for FEMA, yes, you know, we have exactly that person.

00:18:28.580 You do?

00:18:30.100 You do?

00:18:31.260 Because it doesn't look like you have that person.

00:18:33.740 If you had that person, when they asked that question, you would have an answer.

00:18:38.020 And even if the answer was approximate, for example, you might say some people think we'll need as many as 60,000 ventilators.

00:18:46.080 Others think it might only be 40,000.

00:18:48.080 That's fine.

00:18:49.300 That's fine.

00:18:49.880 That's telling us something.

00:18:51.720 And then you go on to say, we know that we have, let's say, 20,000 ventilators.

00:18:58.340 If you added up all the people who are trying to make them and promising, we don't know if they'll meet their commitments.

00:19:06.600 But if you just added what they're promising, we should be up to 45,000 within three weeks.

00:19:13.000 How hard would it be?

00:19:14.320 Again, you could be way off, but it's more than we know now.

00:19:18.020 I mean, it would at least, let's say the numbers were something like that.

00:19:22.120 We need 60,000, but it might be only 40,000.

00:19:25.780 We've got 20,000 in the warehouses and commitments for another 25,000.

00:19:30.540 Wouldn't that?

00:19:31.000 You don't think anybody could have pulled those numbers together and just told us?

00:19:36.960 Now, it could be that they're lying to us, the way they lied to us about the masks, the way they lied to us about the hydroxychloroquine.

00:19:45.940 It could be a shortage situation.

00:19:48.240 I don't know.

00:19:49.140 So maybe they're still just intentionally not telling us.

00:19:51.700 But I would say this is just a gigantic, glaring flaw that the press is totally letting them get away with.

00:20:01.360 And I don't know if the press just doesn't know that it should be reasonably easy to do.

00:20:07.300 I don't know.

00:20:08.440 It's a big mystery why they're not pushing on that.

00:20:10.520 But, you know, I've been giving it a little time because Pence did say that they are querying the hospitals to get exactly this kind of information.

00:20:19.500 It could be it just takes a few days.

00:20:22.280 You know, if it's like everything else in the world, you can't do it overnight.

00:20:25.780 But it's been a few days.

00:20:28.400 And I'd like to see at least, I don't know, one number.

00:20:32.300 Like, well, we've got the masks number.

00:20:34.480 We're still working on the other.

00:20:36.040 I don't have confidence if I'm not seeing those numbers produced pretty quickly.

00:20:40.520 Ian says, will anything ever be done about the obvious corruption of the World Health Organization?

00:20:50.540 Well, I don't know.

00:20:52.020 But I'd certainly be amazed if we continue to fund them, wouldn't you?

00:20:56.260 I mean, maybe they do some things that are so important that we have to anyway.

00:21:01.240 But after this situation where the World Health Organization seems to have been completely a bad actor,

00:21:10.520 they weren't even just worthless.

00:21:12.420 They were actually a bad actor and may have caused a lot of deaths.

00:21:16.800 So I don't know how we would continue to fund them.

00:21:20.180 But we'll see.

00:21:21.040 What percent are you, so this is what percent uncertainty, I guess, masked fox on threats,

00:21:29.620 that we'll see some sort of attack by a foreign country while we deal with the COVID-19 here at home?

00:21:37.280 I would say none.

00:21:39.520 The odds that a foreign country would attack us under these circumstances are none.

00:21:46.480 Because, first of all, who attacks the United States, right?

00:21:51.640 You know, who would intentionally ever attack the United States?

00:21:56.560 Nobody.

00:21:57.420 When was the last time somebody who had a standing army, let's say, not terrorists,

00:22:02.600 but somebody you could find, like with a real government attack in the United States?

00:22:09.020 I mean, really, when was the last time?

00:22:11.940 So no, that's not going to happen.

00:22:15.600 Best investments for a one-to-three period.

00:22:18.480 Well, I don't give investment advice.

00:22:21.180 But I will tell you this generic thing, which is diversification is good.

00:22:26.300 And I personally have my money in, you know, the bulk of it in a Fortune 500 fund,

00:22:35.800 you know, just an unmanaged fund of American companies.

00:22:38.540 So that way I don't have to pick winners and losers.

00:22:41.360 I'm basically betting on America.

00:22:43.700 And I would think that in our current situation,

00:22:46.960 as whatever you think will happen to America,

00:22:50.140 we're probably going to get through this better than anybody else.

00:22:54.020 I think.

00:22:54.860 So if you had to put your money in a country, it's still kind of America.

00:23:01.400 It's still America, even as big as the budget deficit is and everything else.

00:23:06.360 It's still better than the alternatives.

00:23:10.480 What the hell is up with the CDC?

00:23:12.340 Good question.

00:23:14.980 Say, Jenny Smith says,

00:23:16.360 Will you comply, as Bill Gates suggests,

00:23:19.000 with an electronic certificate identifying antibodies in order to travel?

00:23:25.600 I would.

00:23:26.540 Yeah, I would.

00:23:27.500 There are lots of things that I would do in an emergency situation

00:23:30.420 that I wouldn't do in an ordinary situation.

00:23:33.120 But yeah, if I had to basically be tagged as somebody who had recovered so I could travel,

00:23:40.660 well, yeah, why not?

00:23:42.340 I mean, it would just be for my own benefit that I would have this extra power that I could travel.

00:23:49.940 Dave says,

00:23:50.760 Tell us about the pranks you alluded to in your book.

00:23:53.880 Can't tell you.

00:23:55.820 Can't tell you.

00:23:56.520 I'll tell you one prank, though.

00:24:02.060 It's not one of the ones I alluded to.

00:24:04.540 But in my first long-term relationship many years ago,

00:24:09.100 I was living with a woman,

00:24:11.920 and every night she would,

00:24:14.120 I think she used them to, I don't know, take off makeup or something,

00:24:16.980 these little cotton balls.

00:24:18.900 So she'd have a bag that she would buy with a big old bunch of cotton balls. 0.98

00:24:24.520 Now, the thing about cotton balls is that when you take one out of the bag,

00:24:28.760 it still looks like the bag is full.

00:24:31.080 You could actually take quite a few cotton balls out

00:24:33.940 before you could convince yourself that any have even left the bag.

00:24:37.420 I don't know, they're expanding or whatever it is.

00:24:40.340 So one day, Pam was her name,

00:24:42.540 she mentioned,

00:24:44.180 Oh, jeez, it seems like,

00:24:45.880 it's like an infinite bag of cotton balls.

00:24:50.500 Every time I take one out,

00:24:51.600 it seems like you can't even tell the difference.

00:24:54.500 And from that day on,

00:24:56.540 I went to the store and I bought my own bag of cotton balls.

00:25:00.300 And every day,

00:25:01.340 I was very dedicated.

00:25:04.400 Every day I would walk in and I would take,

00:25:06.500 I think she would use two a day or something, 0.73

00:25:08.740 and I would take two cotton balls out of my bag

00:25:11.040 and I would put it in her bag.

00:25:12.980 So for months and months and months,

00:25:14.980 she's taken two bags,

00:25:16.120 two cotton balls out of her bag

00:25:17.900 and it never goes down.

00:25:19.280 I think I ran this prank for like a year.

00:25:21.600 Like a full year. 0.94

00:25:25.860 And she never knew that her cotton balls 1.00

00:25:27.580 were always replenished.

00:25:30.320 Anyway,

00:25:32.480 I'm very dedicated to my pranks.

00:25:34.340 How to fight through frustration

00:25:38.840 when learning new stuff.

00:25:42.420 I've been stuck in the same project for two days.

00:25:45.140 Well, I don't know.

00:25:46.940 I'm not,

00:25:47.320 maybe not the best one to ask

00:25:48.900 because

00:25:49.980 I very much dislike that period

00:25:53.900 where you're confused

00:25:54.840 and you can't figure out how to do something.

00:25:56.760 I'll tell you the tricks I use.

00:25:58.160 I mean,

00:25:59.000 one trick is to make sure

00:26:00.080 you get a lot of sleep.

00:26:02.480 There are simply things you can solve

00:26:04.280 after you have a good night's sleep

00:26:05.520 that you just can't when you're tired.

00:26:07.220 So that's one thing.

00:26:08.780 Another thing is

00:26:09.440 ask some other people what they do,

00:26:11.320 you know,

00:26:11.540 check the YouTube videos

00:26:13.460 and then just keep,

00:26:15.120 keep chipping away at it.

00:26:17.340 You know,

00:26:17.760 there are a lot of things

00:26:18.740 that it seems like it's impossible to learn

00:26:20.720 until you do.

00:26:22.660 So,

00:26:23.260 just keep chipping away.

00:26:24.200 Phil Blatt says

00:26:26.620 if you were a governor of New York,

00:26:29.320 I'm not going to read the rest of this.

00:26:38.220 David says,

00:26:39.720 should Twitter personalities,

00:26:41.660 who are you talking about,

00:26:43.420 David?

00:26:43.780 Should Twitter personalities

00:26:44.780 without mathematics,

00:26:45.960 science,

00:26:46.400 or engineering degrees

00:26:47.420 be allowed to criticize

00:26:49.320 probabilistic

00:26:50.380 epidemiology

00:26:52.880 epidemiological models

00:26:56.580 they obviously don't understand.

00:26:59.740 I think that's directed at me, David.

00:27:01.940 Well, let me put it this way.

00:27:03.720 When the epidemiologist says,

00:27:06.300 we threw New York in the numbers,

00:27:08.620 I don't really have to be

00:27:10.480 an epidemiologist

00:27:11.780 to know that

00:27:13.440 they should have been separated.

00:27:15.280 All right.

00:27:15.620 So the answer is,

00:27:16.800 apparently yes,

00:27:17.580 I should,

00:27:18.220 as a Twitter personality.

00:27:19.500 I should criticize that.

00:27:24.020 For what it's worth,

00:27:25.040 I did that kind of work

00:27:26.140 for a living.

00:27:27.700 All right.

00:27:30.780 What portion of the people dying

00:27:32.580 are from assisted living facilities

00:27:34.260 that got infected

00:27:35.140 before the shutdown?

00:27:36.640 You know,

00:27:37.040 the general question is,

00:27:38.500 we don't know who's dying

00:27:39.400 and why.

00:27:40.820 And I've asked

00:27:41.940 this question,

00:27:44.040 which is,

00:27:44.760 how many doctors

00:27:46.380 who took the

00:27:47.840 hydroxychloroquine

00:27:49.100 before getting anything,

00:27:51.620 how many of them

00:27:52.480 have been hospitalized

00:27:54.180 and ventilated?

00:27:56.340 I'll bet it's zero.

00:27:58.820 So that's the dog

00:27:59.940 that isn't barking there. 0.68

00:28:02.040 That I believe

00:28:03.280 the doctors

00:28:04.020 taking that drug

00:28:05.380 to protect themselves

00:28:07.400 may or may not

00:28:08.800 be getting the

00:28:09.720 virus

00:28:10.460 because I think

00:28:12.180 you can still get it,

00:28:13.140 but that it would be

00:28:14.640 trivial if you did.

00:28:16.740 So I'm predicting

00:28:17.780 that nobody

00:28:18.700 who's been taking it

00:28:20.500 for a while

00:28:21.000 and then got exposed

00:28:22.520 will be ventilated.

00:28:24.420 We'll see.

00:28:27.560 What talent stack

00:28:28.300 do you recommend

00:28:28.940 learning to prepare

00:28:29.780 for a post-corona world?

00:28:32.880 Well,

00:28:33.860 I wouldn't

00:28:34.920 be a restaurant server,

00:28:37.540 so restaurants

00:28:38.500 are going to be

00:28:39.540 tough for a while.

00:28:40.180 I would say

00:28:43.400 podcasting

00:28:45.200 would be good

00:28:45.800 and anything

00:28:48.800 that you can do

00:28:49.900 at home

00:28:50.660 might make a difference.

00:28:52.320 So I think

00:28:52.900 the real answer

00:28:53.740 though is

00:28:54.120 you should add

00:28:54.720 to your talent stack

00:28:55.640 whatever makes sense

00:28:56.720 with what you're good at

00:28:58.520 or what you already have.

00:29:00.200 So you should build it

00:29:00.940 based on

00:29:01.380 your specific situation.

00:29:03.120 Can any of the numbers

00:29:07.920 we see

00:29:08.300 for confirmed cases

00:29:09.340 be taken seriously?

00:29:12.280 I don't know

00:29:12.960 what seriously means,

00:29:14.160 but you've got to take

00:29:15.080 all of the numbers

00:29:16.080 you're seeing,

00:29:16.640 every estimate,

00:29:17.540 every ratio,

00:29:18.920 every raw number.

00:29:20.500 You just really

00:29:21.480 have to be skeptical

00:29:22.380 of it all

00:29:23.020 and I don't see

00:29:24.060 that changing.

00:29:24.600 There's been

00:29:28.500 a steady

00:29:29.060 drumbeat

00:29:29.680 of outrage

00:29:30.360 of the arrest

00:29:31.100 of the minister

00:29:31.840 in Florida.

00:29:33.140 I don't know

00:29:33.580 that story.

00:29:34.240 Was that somebody

00:29:34.800 who refused

00:29:35.640 to do social distancing?

00:29:38.620 Was that the guy

00:29:40.320 who was driving around

00:29:41.240 and driving people

00:29:42.040 to his church

00:29:42.640 or something?

00:29:43.400 I don't remember

00:29:44.120 the story.

00:29:45.180 All right.

00:29:47.320 Do you think

00:29:48.020 this pandemic experience

00:29:49.040 will sway anyone's view

00:29:50.240 on the role

00:29:50.760 of the government

00:29:51.280 in health care?

00:29:52.340 Yes, I do.

00:29:55.280 I do.

00:29:56.000 I think that the odds

00:29:57.200 of some kind

00:29:59.180 of major health care

00:30:00.480 restructuring

00:30:01.440 that somehow

00:30:02.780 is informed

00:30:03.540 by this

00:30:04.280 or influenced

00:30:05.540 by it

00:30:05.880 is pretty high

00:30:06.580 because this is

00:30:07.660 such a big

00:30:08.220 health care event

00:30:09.240 that it should

00:30:10.780 start influencing

00:30:13.980 all of the ways

00:30:15.060 we think about

00:30:15.680 health care in general.

00:30:17.200 Now, predicting

00:30:17.960 exactly how that

00:30:18.860 comes out

00:30:19.260 would be the hard part,

00:30:20.520 but would it

00:30:21.040 influence it?

00:30:21.660 Probably yes.

00:30:23.080 Not guaranteed,

00:30:24.020 but probably yes.

00:30:28.320 Does the COVID virus 0.99

00:30:30.020 attack testicles 0.99

00:30:30.980 as Alex Jones 1.00

00:30:32.160 suggests?

00:30:33.760 Well, when it comes 0.98

00:30:35.160 to testicle-related

00:30:36.280 science,

00:30:38.040 I do go to Alex Jones 0.99

00:30:39.760 for my testicle news. 0.99

00:30:43.120 And I believe 0.99

00:30:44.760 that in this case,

00:30:45.660 Alex Jones

00:30:46.200 is compatible

00:30:47.380 with the science.

00:30:48.260 Now, again,

00:30:50.320 everything you read

00:30:51.280 about anything

00:30:53.000 in this situation

00:30:53.880 is suspect,

00:30:56.320 but I can tell you

00:30:57.560 I did read an article

00:30:58.580 that looked credible

00:30:59.920 that said

00:31:00.540 some number of people 0.97

00:31:02.060 had testicle damage 0.86

00:31:05.040 from it. 0.81

00:31:06.040 Apparently,

00:31:06.620 it hits men

00:31:07.320 harder than women 1.00

00:31:08.460 in general,

00:31:09.320 and that it could

00:31:10.400 affect your

00:31:11.260 testosterone production,

00:31:13.380 which does make you

00:31:16.660 think

00:31:18.320 that it would be

00:31:20.560 like the perfect

00:31:21.200 weapon.

00:31:22.260 Imagine a virus

00:31:23.240 that just made

00:31:25.040 the other side

00:31:26.000 not as aggressive.

00:31:28.940 What about that?

00:31:30.440 That would be

00:31:30.820 quite a weapon.

00:31:33.340 Do you think

00:31:34.000 Trump was pacing

00:31:34.980 the American public

00:31:35.960 at the outset

00:31:36.500 of the pandemic?

00:31:37.520 It looked to me

00:31:38.180 like he knew

00:31:39.520 a lot of people

00:31:40.160 would reject

00:31:40.800 the ideas.

00:31:42.220 In other words,

00:31:42.840 the idea of

00:31:43.460 closing everything

00:31:44.420 down, I think,

00:31:45.240 and socially isolate.

00:31:46.700 So he paced us,

00:31:47.860 meaning he acted

00:31:49.200 the way we acted

00:31:50.080 until he needed

00:31:50.940 to tell us

00:31:52.440 to act differently,

00:31:53.180 and then we

00:31:53.580 followed him.

00:31:54.420 I don't think

00:31:54.980 he did that

00:31:55.420 intentionally,

00:31:56.100 but that's

00:31:56.440 what happened.

00:31:57.760 I do think

00:31:58.540 that the president's

00:32:00.720 credibility

00:32:01.200 went up

00:32:02.400 because we saw

00:32:03.800 the journey.

00:32:05.760 The journey

00:32:06.560 was public.

00:32:07.580 In public,

00:32:08.440 he was like,

00:32:08.900 well, let's get

00:32:09.420 back to work.

00:32:10.020 Let's push it.

00:32:12.440 Maybe go back

00:32:13.040 a little earlier

00:32:13.980 than the experts

00:32:14.660 say, but let's

00:32:15.540 do that.

00:32:16.860 And then we

00:32:17.300 heard the story

00:32:19.800 of the experts

00:32:20.420 coming into

00:32:21.000 the Oval Office,

00:32:21.920 showing him

00:32:22.340 the numbers,

00:32:23.520 and then he

00:32:23.980 changed his mind.

00:32:25.440 And so because

00:32:25.900 we saw the whole

00:32:26.660 journey, it makes

00:32:27.440 you actually feel

00:32:28.140 confident.

00:32:28.760 It's like, oh,

00:32:29.880 that's kind of

00:32:30.920 maybe what I

00:32:31.760 would have done

00:32:32.180 in that situation.

00:32:34.160 So I think

00:32:36.700 he handled

00:32:37.140 at least the

00:32:38.520 decision-making

00:32:39.460 Yeah, I think

00:32:42.160 you could make

00:32:42.620 this distinction.

00:32:43.420 I would say

00:32:43.720 the decision-making

00:32:44.800 is very good.

00:32:46.820 Trump's decision-making.

00:32:50.040 But, you know,

00:32:50.960 there's always

00:32:51.340 something to

00:32:51.860 quibble about

00:32:52.560 the communications

00:32:53.440 and the little

00:32:54.180 stuff.

00:32:55.560 Will the next

00:32:56.020 two weeks be

00:32:56.560 as bad as

00:32:57.340 Trump suggests?

00:32:59.380 Well, again,

00:33:01.600 doesn't it

00:33:02.640 really depend

00:33:03.260 if this

00:33:03.760 hydroxychloroquine

00:33:04.740 works?

00:33:05.420 because if

00:33:07.200 they start

00:33:08.200 giving it to

00:33:08.860 people, I

00:33:10.160 guess, three

00:33:10.560 days ago, and

00:33:11.660 I don't know

00:33:12.200 what percentage

00:33:12.940 of people were

00:33:13.520 getting it and

00:33:14.220 at what phase

00:33:16.680 of their

00:33:17.160 symptoms, but

00:33:19.120 if we started

00:33:19.980 going a little

00:33:21.260 bit more

00:33:21.740 aggressively on

00:33:22.580 that, the

00:33:24.140 next two

00:33:24.680 weeks could be

00:33:25.740 worse than

00:33:26.400 we're seeing,

00:33:27.020 but maybe not

00:33:27.680 a catastrophe.

00:33:29.000 Maybe not.

00:33:29.740 So there's, I

00:33:31.520 would say

00:33:31.880 there's a

00:33:32.360 solid 50%

00:33:34.920 chance that

00:33:35.920 there's, well,

00:33:36.900 there's no

00:33:37.180 chance that the

00:33:37.880 next two weeks

00:33:38.500 will be good.

00:33:40.040 You could rule

00:33:40.860 that out.

00:33:41.740 So there's no

00:33:42.240 chance that, you

00:33:43.100 know, just

00:33:44.340 nobody dies.

00:33:45.920 But the odds

00:33:47.360 of it being a,

00:33:48.260 you know, the

00:33:48.660 nightmare scenario,

00:33:50.240 I think no

00:33:52.160 more than 50-50.

00:33:54.020 And, you

00:33:54.960 know, I told

00:33:55.320 you I'm betting

00:33:55.840 on the low

00:33:56.340 side.

00:33:59.740 Why did you

00:34:00.740 block Larry

00:34:01.620 the liberal?

00:34:02.560 He loves you

00:34:03.100 and is good

00:34:03.600 fun in the

00:34:04.780 worst of times.

00:34:06.200 Larry was

00:34:06.860 DMing me

00:34:07.600 multiple times

00:34:08.460 per day his

00:34:09.780 tweets, you

00:34:11.700 know, so that

00:34:12.500 I would see

00:34:13.020 them and retweet

00:34:13.680 them.

00:34:14.220 And I don't

00:34:14.880 mind retweeting

00:34:15.520 stuff, but I

00:34:16.420 don't like people

00:34:17.120 sending me

00:34:18.080 multiple DMs a

00:34:19.200 day asking me

00:34:19.860 to retweet

00:34:20.320 stuff.

00:34:21.420 So it was

00:34:21.880 only because it

00:34:24.480 was causing me

00:34:25.080 work.

00:34:26.240 So it was

00:34:26.880 nothing personal.

00:34:28.220 He's very

00:34:28.880 funny.

00:34:29.740 All right.

00:34:31.420 Do you see

00:34:32.040 home values

00:34:32.720 falling due

00:34:33.940 to job loss?

00:34:34.880 Yes, of

00:34:35.400 course.

00:34:36.420 Yeah, home

00:34:36.820 values will

00:34:37.500 fall.

00:34:38.480 There's no

00:34:39.060 doubt about

00:34:39.440 that.

00:34:44.020 How should

00:34:44.920 have virus

00:34:45.700 prediction

00:34:46.180 modeling been

00:34:47.060 presented?

00:34:47.760 Well, I

00:34:47.980 think I

00:34:48.220 talked about

00:34:48.620 that.

00:34:51.180 Should we

00:34:51.880 send billions

00:34:52.500 to Israel

00:34:53.040 every year

00:34:53.600 when we

00:34:53.980 have thousands

00:34:54.620 of homeless

00:34:55.260 here?

00:34:56.220 You know,

00:34:56.520 the whole

00:34:56.780 Israel question,

00:34:57.760 it's not

00:35:00.420 a fair

00:35:01.480 question.

00:35:02.900 You know,

00:35:03.180 the money you

00:35:04.200 spend on

00:35:04.600 one thing

00:35:05.120 isn't the

00:35:05.660 money that

00:35:06.060 you would

00:35:06.500 have spent

00:35:06.900 on another

00:35:07.380 thing.

00:35:07.860 It just

00:35:08.160 sort of

00:35:08.460 doesn't

00:35:08.740 work that

00:35:09.120 way.

00:35:09.700 So the

00:35:10.060 first part

00:35:10.480 is the

00:35:10.820 question is

00:35:11.640 not fair.

00:35:13.780 You should

00:35:14.100 say,

00:35:14.620 should we

00:35:14.980 spend any

00:35:17.500 money on

00:35:17.880 Israel,

00:35:18.300 yes or

00:35:18.600 no,

00:35:19.260 just by

00:35:19.760 itself.

00:35:20.380 You don't

00:35:20.640 say,

00:35:21.380 and we

00:35:21.780 could have

00:35:21.960 used that

00:35:22.280 money to

00:35:22.680 keep somebody

00:35:23.140 alive.

00:35:23.620 It doesn't

00:35:24.120 work that

00:35:24.480 way.

00:35:24.680 Because

00:35:25.360 you could

00:35:25.620 have

00:35:25.740 borrowed

00:35:25.920 money to

00:35:26.440 keep that

00:35:26.760 other person

00:35:27.200 alive if

00:35:27.680 that was

00:35:27.920 a priority.

00:35:29.380 But to

00:35:30.020 answer your

00:35:30.320 question,

00:35:30.680 my understanding

00:35:31.260 is we

00:35:33.000 give them

00:35:33.540 foreign aid

00:35:34.260 which we

00:35:35.020 force them

00:35:35.640 to use to

00:35:36.260 buy our

00:35:36.840 military stuff.

00:35:38.700 So really

00:35:39.300 it's like

00:35:40.020 we're giving

00:35:40.840 it to our

00:35:41.480 own military

00:35:43.180 industrial complex.

00:35:44.880 It only

00:35:45.440 seems like

00:35:46.080 we're giving

00:35:46.440 it to

00:35:46.740 Israel.

00:35:49.960 Prozema 0.51

00:35:50.480 says,

00:35:51.000 do you

00:35:51.280 love trans

00:35:52.000 women? 1.00

00:35:52.880 Yes,

00:35:53.220 I do.

00:35:53.560 I love

00:35:54.080 all people.

00:35:56.420 Dave

00:35:56.960 said,

00:35:57.920 should we

00:35:58.480 boycott

00:35:59.100 AT&T for

00:35:59.940 supporting

00:36:00.340 their fake

00:36:00.880 news company

00:36:01.600 CNN?

00:36:02.880 I'm not

00:36:03.580 the boycott

00:36:04.160 guy.

00:36:05.560 I just,

00:36:07.180 you know,

00:36:07.720 I get why

00:36:08.520 people get

00:36:09.040 mad and

00:36:09.580 they want

00:36:09.780 to boycott,

00:36:10.800 but I

00:36:11.720 just don't

00:36:12.120 think that's,

00:36:13.560 it's just,

00:36:14.320 it's not the

00:36:15.500 way I'd go

00:36:15.960 for anything.

00:36:19.340 Flowerchild

00:36:19.820 99 says,

00:36:20.640 what do you

00:36:20.860 think of

00:36:21.140 Dr.

00:36:21.460 Shiva's 0.91

00:36:21.760 take on

00:36:22.060 the virus?

00:36:22.520 He

00:36:22.660 thinks

00:36:22.980 Fauci's

00:36:23.940 in bed

00:36:24.300 with

00:36:24.520 big

00:36:24.720 pharma,

00:36:25.360 so to

00:36:25.640 speak,

00:36:26.480 pushing

00:36:26.820 vaccines

00:36:27.600 over boosting

00:36:28.340 our natural

00:36:28.920 immune health

00:36:29.560 and testing

00:36:30.140 of vitamin

00:36:30.660 A,

00:36:31.540 which should

00:36:32.180 be done

00:36:32.680 regularly,

00:36:33.680 but isn't.

00:36:35.300 Well,

00:36:35.880 I don't know

00:36:36.440 how I could

00:36:37.000 weigh in

00:36:37.480 on a medical

00:36:38.240 question,

00:36:39.020 but I will

00:36:39.700 say that

00:36:40.580 if it's a

00:36:42.240 question of

00:36:42.700 things which

00:36:43.280 have past

00:36:44.600 scientific

00:36:46.140 muster,

00:36:47.000 we should

00:36:47.580 look at

00:36:47.840 them,

00:36:48.200 and if it's

00:36:48.860 something that

00:36:49.380 hasn't,

00:36:49.820 less than

00:36:50.760 Dr.

00:36:51.200 Fauci's

00:36:51.640 on strong

00:36:52.920 ground,

00:36:53.760 and I

00:36:53.980 don't know

00:36:54.380 if,

00:36:54.780 I don't

00:36:55.220 know,

00:36:55.640 has vitamin

00:36:56.140 A been

00:36:56.660 looked at?

00:36:59.080 So I

00:36:59.720 can't ask,

00:37:00.160 I can't give

00:37:00.620 you a good

00:37:01.280 answer on

00:37:01.640 that.

00:37:03.840 Talk about

00:37:04.500 the infrastructure

00:37:05.120 bill.

00:37:05.780 You think it

00:37:06.300 will really

00:37:06.740 happen?

00:37:07.140 If we

00:37:13.120 were a

00:37:13.780 rational

00:37:14.260 species

00:37:14.940 and a

00:37:15.520 rational

00:37:15.900 time,

00:37:16.420 it would

00:37:16.640 happen,

00:37:17.580 because I

00:37:18.060 don't think

00:37:18.400 there's

00:37:18.620 anybody on

00:37:19.600 the left

00:37:19.980 or the

00:37:20.340 right who

00:37:21.560 doesn't

00:37:21.980 recognize

00:37:22.500 it's just

00:37:23.040 sort of a

00:37:23.500 good idea.

00:37:24.920 If ever

00:37:25.700 you were

00:37:26.060 going to

00:37:26.300 do an

00:37:26.580 infrastructure

00:37:26.940 bill,

00:37:28.140 do it

00:37:28.680 now.

00:37:29.520 Couldn't

00:37:29.780 be a

00:37:30.500 better time

00:37:31.080 because of

00:37:31.580 the economic

00:37:32.360 stimulus and

00:37:33.160 the fact that

00:37:33.580 we need

00:37:33.940 it,

00:37:34.340 and the

00:37:35.380 fact that

00:37:35.800 at the

00:37:36.140 moment people

00:37:36.740 are willing

00:37:37.120 to work

00:37:37.500 together,

00:37:37.860 basically

00:37:38.260 every single

00:37:39.580 condition you

00:37:40.400 would want,

00:37:42.380 we have.

00:37:44.260 So if you

00:37:44.840 can't get it

00:37:45.320 done now,

00:37:46.480 when can

00:37:48.400 you get it

00:37:48.760 done?

00:37:50.340 But I am

00:37:51.420 skeptical that

00:37:52.540 we could

00:37:53.260 create a lot

00:37:54.000 of jobs that

00:37:54.620 way, but it

00:37:55.020 might make

00:37:55.440 people feel

00:37:56.360 like things

00:37:56.800 are going

00:37:57.100 in the right

00:37:57.500 direction.

00:37:58.460 That whole

00:37:58.920 shovel-ready

00:38:00.200 thing, that

00:38:01.620 never seems

00:38:02.440 real to me.

00:38:04.280 Simulation

00:38:04.760 question.

00:38:05.280 Do other

00:38:05.600 people exist

00:38:06.300 in your

00:38:06.680 simulation,

00:38:07.360 or are

00:38:07.560 they just

00:38:07.900 a simulated

00:38:08.380 person to

00:38:08.900 entertain you?

00:38:10.040 Well, of

00:38:11.340 course, there's

00:38:11.760 no way to

00:38:12.100 know the

00:38:12.440 answer, but

00:38:13.060 let me

00:38:13.540 speculate.

00:38:15.700 If we

00:38:16.460 are a

00:38:16.720 simulation, we

00:38:18.340 either just

00:38:19.040 live independently

00:38:20.100 as, you

00:38:20.900 know, you're a

00:38:22.240 simulation and I'm

00:38:23.540 a software

00:38:24.460 simulation too,

00:38:26.120 but we could

00:38:27.340 also be

00:38:28.140 avatars that

00:38:29.900 some other

00:38:31.120 creatures are

00:38:31.920 using to

00:38:32.460 experience our

00:38:33.520 game-like

00:38:34.740 world.

00:38:36.340 Now, if

00:38:37.320 it's that

00:38:37.700 one, where

00:38:38.340 there are

00:38:38.640 avatars who

00:38:39.420 are inhabiting

00:38:40.020 us, it

00:38:41.400 could be

00:38:41.680 that some

00:38:42.080 of us have

00:38:42.540 an avatar or

00:38:43.540 some of us

00:38:44.140 have a

00:38:44.760 creature inhabiting

00:38:45.540 us, and

00:38:46.580 some of us

00:38:47.080 don't.

00:38:47.800 So that's one

00:38:48.280 possibility.

00:38:49.860 The other

00:38:50.280 possibility is

00:38:51.140 that only one

00:38:52.800 of us is

00:38:53.280 real, even

00:38:55.140 in the

00:38:55.500 simulation.

00:38:56.200 There's only

00:38:56.500 one sort of

00:38:57.540 main character,

00:38:58.520 and then

00:38:59.280 everything else

00:38:59.840 is scenery.

00:39:02.720 So that's

00:39:03.360 possible.

00:39:04.100 Or that some

00:39:05.020 of us are

00:39:05.480 real, and

00:39:07.060 others are

00:39:07.600 backgrounds and

00:39:08.520 NPCs, as

00:39:09.500 they say.

00:39:10.260 So I think

00:39:10.680 any of those

00:39:11.120 are possible.

00:39:12.020 At least you

00:39:13.320 can't prove

00:39:13.820 they're not

00:39:14.420 true.

00:39:17.760 Mike says,

00:39:19.160 can you give

00:39:19.540 us an update

00:39:20.000 on interface

00:39:21.300 by WenHub?

00:39:23.200 And,

00:39:23.780 well, here's

00:39:25.700 the thing.

00:39:26.140 it's sort

00:39:29.100 of a perfect

00:39:29.880 tool to be

00:39:30.780 using in this

00:39:31.420 situation.

00:39:32.780 My startup

00:39:33.760 has an app

00:39:35.280 called Interface

00:39:36.040 where any

00:39:36.660 expert can

00:39:37.700 sign up to

00:39:38.440 take a phone

00:39:39.380 call and

00:39:39.920 charge for it

00:39:40.640 or not

00:39:41.000 charge for it.

00:39:42.060 So it's the

00:39:42.580 not charge for

00:39:43.340 it if you

00:39:43.760 want to part

00:39:44.700 that's important

00:39:45.220 here.

00:39:45.580 So it's a

00:39:45.920 video call

00:39:46.540 with somebody

00:39:47.880 that you can

00:39:48.640 easily find

00:39:49.480 through the

00:39:49.980 app who

00:39:52.280 has expertise

00:39:53.200 and is

00:39:53.660 available for

00:39:54.280 a certain

00:39:54.520 thing.

00:39:55.040 Now it's

00:39:55.360 exactly what

00:39:55.960 you need

00:39:56.280 for

00:39:56.580 telehealth

00:39:58.680 experts of

00:40:00.940 all kinds

00:40:01.520 in this

00:40:01.900 situation.

00:40:03.400 But I've

00:40:05.440 just not

00:40:06.220 felt commercial

00:40:07.140 these last

00:40:08.720 several weeks.

00:40:09.680 The thought

00:40:10.420 of selling

00:40:10.900 something,

00:40:12.040 even if it's

00:40:12.980 something that

00:40:13.400 people want,

00:40:15.200 just my,

00:40:16.320 I don't know,

00:40:16.940 I don't have

00:40:17.460 the fire for

00:40:19.040 anything that's

00:40:19.760 just commercial

00:40:21.200 at the moment.

00:40:22.240 My focus is

00:40:23.800 more on the

00:40:24.380 emergency.

00:40:26.400 But that

00:40:27.280 said,

00:40:28.500 it is also

00:40:29.200 a perfect

00:40:29.760 tool.

00:40:30.180 So if there

00:40:30.580 are any

00:40:30.960 individual

00:40:32.280 doctors,

00:40:32.940 they can

00:40:33.180 just sign

00:40:33.580 up and

00:40:34.700 just,

00:40:35.400 you know,

00:40:35.860 they can

00:40:36.420 tweet it

00:40:36.880 out and

00:40:37.240 say,

00:40:37.480 I'm on

00:40:37.780 this app,

00:40:38.480 and they

00:40:39.100 could charge

00:40:39.540 zero if

00:40:40.080 they want,

00:40:40.840 or if

00:40:41.360 they're already

00:40:42.680 socially

00:40:43.640 isolating,

00:40:44.520 and maybe

00:40:45.320 they tested

00:40:45.900 positive

00:40:46.320 themselves,

00:40:47.280 they could

00:40:47.940 just keep

00:40:48.480 being a

00:40:48.880 doctor from

00:40:49.420 home,

00:40:49.700 and you

00:40:51.060 wouldn't

00:40:51.240 need any

00:40:52.020 approvals or

00:40:52.660 anything,

00:40:52.960 just sign

00:40:53.480 up for the

00:40:53.860 app.

00:40:54.100 It's called

00:40:54.320 Interface by

00:40:55.140 WinHub.

00:40:56.700 All right,

00:40:57.340 why haven't you

00:40:58.940 talked about

00:40:59.380 career millionaire

00:41:00.260 politicians who

00:41:02.400 have sold this

00:41:02.920 out to China?

00:41:03.660 I guess the

00:41:04.120 implication being

00:41:04.880 that they're

00:41:05.720 on the payroll

00:41:07.980 or something.

00:41:10.140 You know,

00:41:10.720 I don't know

00:41:11.120 too much about

00:41:11.980 that situation,

00:41:12.820 except that it's

00:41:13.560 obvious that

00:41:14.720 China is 0.85

00:41:15.560 buying influence

00:41:16.540 everywhere.

00:41:18.120 So,

00:41:18.780 I don't know

00:41:19.360 what you do

00:41:19.740 about that,

00:41:20.780 because whoever

00:41:22.160 has the most

00:41:22.840 money is going

00:41:23.540 to be buying

00:41:24.000 influence,

00:41:24.660 and don't you

00:41:25.140 think the

00:41:25.480 United States

00:41:26.080 buys a lot

00:41:26.720 of influence?

00:41:28.020 Maybe not as

00:41:28.900 aggressively as

00:41:29.600 China.

00:41:32.260 Let's see.

00:41:35.760 Birhe says,

00:41:36.720 I bought a

00:41:37.140 special blanket

00:41:37.760 for swaddle

00:41:38.420 time, but

00:41:39.660 wife is making 1.00

00:41:40.400 me repaint

00:41:41.040 the whole house,

00:41:41.920 and I'm dead

00:41:42.340 tired at 8pm

00:41:43.180 Eastern time

00:41:43.820 already.

00:41:44.720 Question,

00:41:45.400 should I

00:41:45.940 listen to

00:41:46.340 my body,

00:41:47.820 my wife,

00:41:48.340 or you?

00:41:49.960 Well,

00:41:51.080 you should

00:41:51.460 listen to

00:41:51.860 me.

00:41:53.500 Tell your

00:41:54.180 wife,

00:41:54.880 Birhe says,

00:41:56.600 Mrs. Birhe says,

00:41:58.040 this is a

00:41:59.060 message for

00:41:59.540 you.

00:42:00.680 You should

00:42:01.220 let your

00:42:01.600 husband

00:42:02.020 swaddle in

00:42:03.940 his newly

00:42:04.780 purchased

00:42:05.280 swaddle

00:42:05.760 blanket,

00:42:06.620 because this

00:42:07.180 is important.

00:42:08.420 That house

00:42:09.020 will still

00:42:09.460 need painting

00:42:10.040 later.

00:42:11.180 All right.

00:42:14.720 should we

00:42:18.860 answer that?

00:42:22.180 Will you

00:42:22.700 do a

00:42:22.980 live stream

00:42:23.520 with me so

00:42:24.040 I can ask

00:42:24.600 you about

00:42:24.980 your

00:42:25.180 childhood?

00:42:26.340 What

00:42:26.740 will you

00:42:27.000 ask me

00:42:27.380 about my

00:42:27.860 childhood?

00:42:29.940 Why would

00:42:30.480 that matter?

00:42:32.820 I'm happy

00:42:34.360 to answer

00:42:34.740 those questions,

00:42:35.520 but I don't

00:42:36.040 know why

00:42:37.320 you'd care.

00:42:38.760 Where is

00:42:39.260 Hunter?

00:42:39.780 There's a

00:42:40.100 good question.

00:42:40.740 Where's

00:42:41.020 Joe Biden?

00:42:42.580 Where is

00:42:43.220 Joe Biden?

00:42:45.860 Oh,

00:42:46.200 calming

00:42:46.460 lessons.

00:42:48.160 Would you

00:42:48.640 like some

00:42:49.200 lessons on

00:42:50.160 relaxing?

00:42:52.400 Well,

00:42:53.000 I've told you

00:42:53.360 how to

00:42:53.560 relax,

00:42:54.460 and I

00:42:55.660 took my

00:42:56.180 long walk

00:42:57.040 today,

00:42:57.700 and I'm

00:42:58.920 feeling good.

00:43:01.000 Do you

00:43:01.700 predict a

00:43:02.240 spike in 0.98

00:43:02.720 divorces?

00:43:03.800 Well,

00:43:04.120 it's going

00:43:04.380 to work

00:43:04.620 both ways,

00:43:05.280 because some

00:43:06.780 number of

00:43:07.240 people probably

00:43:08.960 were going

00:43:11.260 to get

00:43:11.580 divorced,

00:43:12.160 and this

00:43:12.480 changed their

00:43:13.420 mind,

00:43:14.000 and some

00:43:14.560 will think,

00:43:15.180 well,

00:43:15.400 it's the

00:43:15.720 last straw.

00:43:16.820 It's probably

00:43:17.200 a little of

00:43:17.580 both.

00:43:18.040 Couldn't

00:43:18.280 add out

00:43:18.700 to nothing.

00:43:21.500 Can I

00:43:21.800 find

00:43:22.200 interface

00:43:22.920 by,

00:43:23.560 it's

00:43:24.140 Wenhub,

00:43:25.380 W-H-E-N-H-U-B. 1.00

00:43:28.660 So it's

00:43:28.920 interface by

00:43:29.780 Wenhub.

00:43:30.300 It's in

00:43:30.640 all the

00:43:31.180 app stores.

00:43:34.440 What

00:43:34.880 did you

00:43:35.040 think of

00:43:35.280 the Canadian

00:43:35.780 diagnosis

00:43:36.360 kits?

00:43:36.800 I don't

00:43:37.000 know that

00:43:37.300 story.

00:43:38.520 Well,

00:43:38.760 will happen

00:43:39.080 in the

00:43:39.300 travel

00:43:39.560 industry.

00:43:40.260 It will

00:43:40.580 be dead

00:43:41.120 for a 0.99

00:43:41.460 while,

00:43:42.320 but I

00:43:42.920 think that

00:43:43.440 people like

00:43:44.900 to travel.

00:43:46.040 I don't

00:43:46.360 think that's

00:43:46.740 going to

00:43:46.960 change.

00:43:47.460 As soon as

00:43:47.900 they get

00:43:48.160 money again,

00:43:48.760 I think it'll

00:43:50.080 come back.

00:43:50.820 It's going

00:43:51.400 to be a

00:43:51.680 while.

00:43:53.220 Will the

00:43:53.580 NFL play?

00:43:54.640 I'll bet

00:43:55.040 not.

00:43:56.460 If I had

00:43:56.960 to predict,

00:43:57.600 I'd say

00:43:58.060 no NFL

00:43:59.060 season.

00:44:00.980 That's my

00:44:01.620 guess.

00:44:06.440 What do

00:44:06.980 you think

00:44:07.180 the new

00:44:07.520 normal looks

00:44:08.220 like?

00:44:08.960 I think

00:44:09.680 May 1st

00:44:10.280 will just

00:44:10.620 be extending

00:44:11.880 whatever we

00:44:12.980 were doing

00:44:13.320 before that.

00:44:14.400 I don't

00:44:14.840 think May

00:44:15.280 1st will

00:44:15.700 be a

00:44:16.100 real

00:44:17.000 change-your-life

00:44:18.340 day.

00:44:24.220 Will we

00:44:25.280 fight for

00:44:25.720 gasoline like

00:44:26.560 Mad Max?

00:44:27.280 Well,

00:44:27.600 the good

00:44:27.860 news is I

00:44:28.420 think we

00:44:28.680 got plenty

00:44:29.100 of gasoline

00:44:29.740 and it

00:44:30.380 could be

00:44:30.660 super cheap.

00:44:31.900 The bad

00:44:32.240 news is

00:44:32.680 that the

00:44:33.160 oil industry

00:44:35.020 might be

00:44:35.440 going out

00:44:35.820 of business.

00:44:40.020 Is 0.88

00:44:40.580 simulation

00:44:41.060 theory useful

00:44:41.820 to self-hypnotize

00:44:43.740 via narrative

00:44:45.380 fallacy?

00:44:45.960 I don't

00:44:47.100 really know

00:44:47.420 what that

00:44:47.700 means.

00:44:51.420 When is

00:44:52.060 the John

00:44:52.440 McAfee

00:44:53.000 interview?

00:44:53.940 You know,

00:44:54.540 I was

00:44:56.160 going to

00:44:56.540 interview

00:44:56.920 John McAfee

00:44:57.660 and he

00:44:57.900 agreed,

00:44:59.040 which would

00:44:59.520 be an

00:44:59.760 amazing

00:45:00.040 interview,

00:45:00.580 but he

00:45:01.100 needs to

00:45:01.540 use secure

00:45:02.400 communications,

00:45:03.700 so he

00:45:04.640 can't just

00:45:05.160 call in

00:45:05.580 here and

00:45:06.260 he can't

00:45:07.020 call in

00:45:07.460 on FaceTime,

00:45:08.360 he's got

00:45:08.640 to use

00:45:08.940 Skype,

00:45:09.300 and I

00:45:10.560 didn't know

00:45:10.900 how to do

00:45:12.440 a split

00:45:12.940 screen with

00:45:13.500 Skype,

00:45:14.200 so I

00:45:15.360 just couldn't

00:45:15.780 get the

00:45:16.100 technology to

00:45:16.780 work.

00:45:19.420 What

00:45:19.820 podcasts do

00:45:20.880 you follow?

00:45:21.380 You know,

00:45:21.700 I don't

00:45:22.000 listen to a

00:45:22.700 lot of

00:45:22.940 podcasts.

00:45:23.600 I end up

00:45:24.000 listening to

00:45:24.560 whatever people

00:45:25.200 recommend.

00:45:26.520 People send

00:45:27.120 me podcasts

00:45:27.860 all the time

00:45:28.400 and say,

00:45:28.700 oh,

00:45:28.800 you've got to

00:45:29.040 listen to

00:45:29.340 this one.

00:45:30.360 So sometimes

00:45:31.120 I do.

00:45:34.900 Why aren't

00:45:35.520 we hearing

00:45:35.940 of Trump

00:45:36.460 properties

00:45:37.100 going to

00:45:37.700 possible

00:45:38.160 bankruptcy?

00:45:39.300 It's a

00:45:39.740 good question.

00:45:40.320 It's a

00:45:40.560 private

00:45:40.780 company,

00:45:41.960 and who

00:45:42.800 knows what

00:45:43.380 they are

00:45:44.060 doing or

00:45:44.460 need to

00:45:44.740 do.

00:45:45.340 Now,

00:45:45.600 a lot of

00:45:45.860 their business

00:45:46.300 is licensing,

00:45:47.920 so they

00:45:48.520 don't own

00:45:49.020 the building,

00:45:49.800 they've just

00:45:50.320 licensed their

00:45:51.040 name for it.

00:45:52.220 So there's

00:45:54.240 still a

00:45:54.540 problem,

00:45:55.080 which is

00:45:55.560 they won't

00:45:55.880 get paid

00:45:56.260 for the

00:45:56.520 licenses if

00:45:57.400 the company

00:45:58.720 that licensed

00:45:59.220 it goes

00:45:59.660 out of

00:45:59.900 business,

00:46:00.720 but it's

00:46:01.580 not like

00:46:01.960 they have

00:46:02.220 a loan.

00:46:03.600 So in

00:46:03.900 those cases,

00:46:04.440 it's just

00:46:05.080 a stream of

00:46:05.800 income that

00:46:06.300 stops versus

00:46:07.620 having something

00:46:08.640 they owe a

00:46:09.360 lot of

00:46:09.600 money on.

00:46:11.000 But they

00:46:11.460 have some

00:46:11.780 of those

00:46:12.100 too,

00:46:12.340 I'm sure.

00:46:16.180 Do I

00:46:16.820 like

00:46:17.060 Victor

00:46:17.440 Davis

00:46:17.900 Hanson?

00:46:20.180 Yeah,

00:46:20.460 he's always a

00:46:21.220 good interview

00:46:21.740 and a

00:46:22.080 great writer.

00:46:24.580 Do I play

00:46:25.480 chess?

00:46:25.900 chess.

00:46:26.820 I played

00:46:27.540 chess with

00:46:28.100 Christina

00:46:28.760 before any

00:46:31.360 of this

00:46:31.600 business

00:46:31.900 started.

00:46:32.700 For the

00:46:33.060 first time,

00:46:33.520 I hadn't

00:46:33.740 played chess

00:46:34.240 in a

00:46:34.500 million years

00:46:35.100 and I'm

00:46:38.540 not sure I

00:46:38.860 have the

00:46:39.100 patience for

00:46:39.660 it.

00:46:43.240 Gordon

00:46:43.680 Chang. 0.99

00:46:44.440 Yeah,

00:46:44.660 I should.

00:46:46.260 What is the

00:46:46.760 secret to the

00:46:47.520 universe?

00:46:49.480 Well,

00:46:50.920 what if the

00:46:52.140 secret to the

00:46:52.800 universe is

00:46:53.440 that you can

00:46:53.940 program it?

00:46:55.900 And that if

00:46:56.800 you learn

00:46:57.240 that,

00:46:57.820 then you get

00:46:58.460 everything you

00:46:59.020 want.

00:47:00.560 Because sometimes

00:47:01.340 it feels like

00:47:01.980 that,

00:47:02.380 that some

00:47:03.740 people have

00:47:04.240 learned how to

00:47:04.800 program the

00:47:05.760 simulation.

00:47:07.220 And there are

00:47:07.780 people I know,

00:47:08.760 I won't name

00:47:09.580 any examples,

00:47:10.420 but there are

00:47:10.720 people I know

00:47:11.400 who can so

00:47:13.340 consistently make

00:47:14.980 things happen

00:47:15.680 that you don't

00:47:16.180 think they should

00:47:16.760 be able to do

00:47:17.420 that you just

00:47:22.480 wonder about the

00:47:23.080 nature of reality.

00:47:24.240 Let me tell you a

00:47:25.000 story about the

00:47:25.520 first time I

00:47:26.220 realized how

00:47:26.800 influential I

00:47:27.680 was or

00:47:28.220 persuasive.

00:47:29.280 So this is a

00:47:30.100 real story.

00:47:31.020 So back in

00:47:31.480 college,

00:47:32.100 there was an

00:47:34.240 organization in

00:47:35.160 college called

00:47:36.040 the Coffee

00:47:36.520 House.

00:47:37.140 And the

00:47:37.360 Coffee House

00:47:37.860 was a group

00:47:39.360 that was run

00:47:39.980 by students.

00:47:41.240 So the

00:47:41.660 students volunteered

00:47:42.480 to run it.

00:47:43.560 And it was a

00:47:44.560 bar on campus.

00:47:46.440 So we'd have

00:47:47.100 live music and

00:47:48.980 serve, I think,

00:47:50.560 only beer at the

00:47:51.240 time and some

00:47:51.980 snacks.

00:47:52.320 and I

00:47:55.260 volunteered to

00:47:56.200 work there to

00:47:56.980 get some

00:47:57.360 experience managing

00:47:58.680 a thing.

00:47:59.500 And I was the

00:48:00.100 Minister of

00:48:00.760 Finance.

00:48:01.900 So I was an

00:48:02.860 economic major.

00:48:03.660 So I redid the

00:48:05.100 accounting system

00:48:07.400 and became one

00:48:10.060 of the several

00:48:10.680 managers working

00:48:12.700 in this bar

00:48:14.020 environment.

00:48:14.860 and it was the

00:48:16.140 coolest job

00:48:16.700 because it was a

00:48:17.320 bar and, you

00:48:18.680 know, you're

00:48:19.000 18 and you're

00:48:20.060 in those days

00:48:21.000 you could drink

00:48:21.520 at 18 in New

00:48:22.540 York.

00:48:24.220 So here's the

00:48:25.120 situation.

00:48:26.180 We would hire 0.99

00:48:27.080 bartenders and

00:48:28.540 then we as a

00:48:29.480 group, the

00:48:30.240 so-called

00:48:30.920 managers, would

00:48:32.560 have to fire

00:48:33.760 them if they

00:48:34.260 didn't perform.

00:48:34.940 And one of the

00:48:35.380 people that we

00:48:36.180 hired was a

00:48:37.860 close friend of

00:48:38.540 mine.

00:48:39.500 So I had

00:48:40.260 talked the

00:48:40.760 managers into

00:48:41.480 hiring a

00:48:43.140 friend and he

00:48:44.800 was the worst

00:48:45.620 employee.

00:48:47.120 He would show

00:48:48.160 up an hour

00:48:48.660 late, he

00:48:49.600 would be

00:48:50.600 stoned, he

00:48:51.680 would do

00:48:52.760 things wrong,

00:48:54.040 just the worst

00:48:54.880 employee.

00:48:55.700 So the other

00:48:57.540 managers put up

00:48:58.420 with him for

00:48:58.940 several weeks

00:48:59.660 and they

00:49:02.580 decided that

00:49:03.460 they were going

00:49:04.280 to have a

00:49:04.640 meeting and

00:49:05.180 we're going to

00:49:05.540 fire him. 0.82

00:49:06.720 So I'm in the

00:49:07.400 meeting in which

00:49:09.260 the managers are

00:49:10.260 talking about

00:49:10.840 firing my

00:49:11.640 friend who I

00:49:13.280 had recommended

00:49:13.940 for the job

00:49:14.620 of being a

00:49:15.340 bartender.

00:49:17.140 I decided

00:49:18.100 that I was

00:49:19.160 going to see

00:49:19.640 if I could

00:49:20.200 get them to

00:49:21.060 wait for it

00:49:22.420 instead of

00:49:23.680 firing him

00:49:24.400 that they

00:49:25.880 would agree

00:49:26.800 to make him

00:49:27.940 their boss,

00:49:29.820 to make him

00:49:30.560 actually the

00:49:31.100 head of the

00:49:31.800 managers.

00:49:32.400 I forget what

00:49:32.840 the title was

00:49:33.520 but that was

00:49:34.660 open.

00:49:35.660 And I didn't

00:49:36.040 want to be the

00:49:36.540 head, I wanted 0.84

00:49:37.160 to be the one

00:49:37.800 who sort of

00:49:39.060 controlled the

00:49:40.300 head, so to

00:49:41.640 speak.

00:49:41.920 I didn't want

00:49:43.200 that name, the

00:49:44.060 title, but I

00:49:44.800 wanted to have

00:49:45.700 the influence.

00:49:47.080 And so I

00:49:48.080 actually said,

00:49:49.040 you know, what

00:49:50.660 you're saying about

00:49:51.340 him being fired,

00:49:52.300 it's all true.

00:49:53.540 He really was

00:49:54.420 late and he's

00:49:55.760 really not much

00:49:56.920 of a bartender

00:49:57.600 at all and I

00:49:58.320 don't think he

00:49:58.780 has any of the

00:49:59.600 natural talents

00:50:00.500 that would make

00:50:02.120 a good bartender.

00:50:04.000 But you know

00:50:04.420 what he does

00:50:04.940 have?

00:50:05.640 And I argued

00:50:06.700 with him that

00:50:07.860 he had a unique

00:50:08.840 talent stack, I

00:50:09.960 didn't use those

00:50:10.540 terms back

00:50:11.080 then, but he

00:50:12.040 had a unique

00:50:12.560 set of skills

00:50:13.380 that would make

00:50:14.640 him the perfect

00:50:15.560 head of the

00:50:17.820 organization that

00:50:18.700 was talking about

00:50:19.480 firing him right

00:50:20.380 then.

00:50:21.360 So we were

00:50:22.080 literally talking

00:50:22.800 about firing him

00:50:23.680 as a bartender

00:50:24.460 and within 45

00:50:26.900 minutes I had

00:50:28.100 convinced everybody

00:50:28.920 in the room

00:50:29.520 that we should

00:50:30.820 not fire him

00:50:31.720 and instead

00:50:32.320 promote him to

00:50:33.360 be our own

00:50:34.000 boss.

00:50:36.580 And they

00:50:37.340 said, well,

00:50:38.600 you're still

00:50:39.020 going to have

00:50:39.360 to go through

00:50:40.540 a vote or

00:50:41.100 something and

00:50:42.140 I sort of

00:50:44.380 argued my

00:50:44.900 case and the

00:50:45.840 next thing

00:50:46.240 you know, he

00:50:47.500 was fired as

00:50:48.260 a bartender

00:50:48.860 and promoted

00:50:49.440 to all of

00:50:50.020 our bosses.

00:50:52.340 And that

00:50:52.960 actually happened.

00:50:54.220 And I tell

00:50:54.780 that story and

00:50:56.020 I think, has

00:50:56.580 anybody ever

00:50:57.200 been almost

00:50:57.880 fired but

00:50:58.480 instead got

00:50:59.280 promoted to

00:50:59.840 be the boss

00:51:00.440 of the person

00:51:00.880 who was almost

00:51:01.420 going to fire

00:51:01.840 him?

00:51:02.200 I don't think

00:51:02.760 that's ever

00:51:03.180 happened in

00:51:04.220 the history of

00:51:06.540 business.

00:51:07.660 So, you

00:51:12.620 should not be

00:51:13.280 surprised that

00:51:14.300 when I later

00:51:14.900 studied hypnosis

00:51:15.860 and the tools

00:51:17.500 of persuasion

00:51:18.440 that I had a

00:51:21.240 reason to think

00:51:21.820 maybe I had

00:51:22.380 some natural

00:51:22.880 talent in that

00:51:23.680 area.

00:51:25.460 So it's just

00:51:27.180 getting better.

00:51:28.780 Was he any

00:51:29.280 good at the

00:51:29.720 new job?

00:51:30.200 Yeah, actually.

00:51:31.680 I guess that's

00:51:32.640 the punchline.

00:51:33.560 The punchline,

00:51:34.320 he was actually

00:51:35.200 pretty good as a

00:51:36.460 chairman.

00:51:36.960 I think it was

00:51:37.320 the chairman

00:51:37.760 was the title.

00:51:39.320 He was actually

00:51:39.820 pretty good.

00:51:40.420 With my help,

00:51:42.360 we completely

00:51:43.140 turned the place

00:51:44.240 around and

00:51:44.880 lost money.

00:51:46.160 The business

00:51:46.660 had lost money

00:51:47.440 every year it

00:51:49.640 had been on

00:51:50.020 campus for

00:51:51.120 decades.

00:51:52.920 And I

00:51:54.040 turned it all

00:51:54.600 around and

00:51:55.280 changed the

00:51:55.900 pricing and

00:51:57.000 fired some

00:51:57.780 vendors and

00:51:58.520 basically it

00:51:59.500 was just a

00:51:59.960 turnaround.

00:52:01.420 And it was

00:52:02.300 making money

00:52:02.940 for the first

00:52:03.960 time.

00:52:04.180 So that

00:52:07.320 happened.

00:52:08.060 Anyway,

00:52:10.100 here's another

00:52:11.300 true story also

00:52:12.120 from college.

00:52:14.580 The same

00:52:15.300 friend that I

00:52:15.760 was telling

00:52:16.080 this story

00:52:16.480 about and

00:52:16.900 another one,

00:52:17.440 the three of

00:52:17.880 us, we

00:52:19.220 would sit in

00:52:19.900 our dorm room

00:52:20.840 and enjoy

00:52:22.780 the things that

00:52:23.640 college students

00:52:24.400 enjoy when

00:52:24.980 they're sitting

00:52:25.340 in dorm rooms.

00:52:26.460 You know what

00:52:26.900 I mean.

00:52:27.980 And we

00:52:29.120 would have

00:52:29.440 wild ideas

00:52:30.220 and plans

00:52:30.860 for the

00:52:31.180 future.

00:52:31.840 And I

00:52:32.840 came up with

00:52:33.320 this plan.

00:52:34.480 I said,

00:52:35.000 why don't

00:52:35.280 the three

00:52:35.640 of us be

00:52:36.460 in charge

00:52:36.940 of the

00:52:37.220 whole dormitory?

00:52:39.200 Yes,

00:52:39.760 bombs were

00:52:40.280 involved,

00:52:41.380 that is

00:52:41.620 true.

00:52:42.500 And I

00:52:43.080 said, we

00:52:43.320 should be

00:52:43.580 in charge

00:52:43.980 of the

00:52:44.220 dormitory

00:52:44.720 instead of

00:52:45.300 having these

00:52:45.700 professional

00:52:46.240 managers.

00:52:47.540 So there

00:52:47.940 was like a

00:52:48.400 professional

00:52:48.860 adult who

00:52:49.680 lived there

00:52:50.200 who was

00:52:50.480 sort of in

00:52:50.980 charge,

00:52:51.840 and there

00:52:52.120 were these

00:52:52.420 resident

00:52:52.860 assistants,

00:52:53.700 students who

00:52:54.340 were sort

00:52:54.600 of like his

00:52:55.680 little army

00:52:56.280 of things.

00:52:57.620 And I

00:52:57.800 said, you

00:52:58.020 know, we

00:52:58.440 should just

00:52:58.760 take over.

00:53:00.000 We should

00:53:00.360 be in

00:53:00.860 charge of the

00:53:02.320 dorm, the

00:53:02.720 three of

00:53:03.100 us.

00:53:03.880 And we

00:53:04.420 hatched this

00:53:05.000 scheme to

00:53:06.580 try to sell

00:53:07.280 to the

00:53:07.700 administration a

00:53:08.560 plan where

00:53:09.140 they would

00:53:09.460 fire the

00:53:10.040 adult and 0.97

00:53:11.760 they would

00:53:12.080 pay us,

00:53:12.920 actually give

00:53:13.400 us money,

00:53:14.520 the three of

00:53:15.120 us to be in

00:53:15.760 charge of the

00:53:16.280 dormitory instead.

00:53:17.160 bed.

00:53:18.460 Now, how high

00:53:20.080 do you have

00:53:20.480 to be to

00:53:21.400 come up with

00:53:21.880 that idea?

00:53:24.120 Well, a year

00:53:24.840 later, as I

00:53:26.200 was in my

00:53:26.780 private room,

00:53:30.340 which was

00:53:31.280 available only

00:53:32.040 to student

00:53:32.780 managers, the

00:53:33.580 name of the

00:53:34.100 title which we

00:53:34.820 gave it, and

00:53:35.980 then we took

00:53:36.480 it and we

00:53:36.900 sold it to

00:53:37.400 the administration

00:53:38.100 and sold it

00:53:39.960 to the students

00:53:40.680 who were coming

00:53:41.160 into the

00:53:41.720 dormitory the

00:53:42.520 next year,

00:53:43.000 and we

00:53:44.020 completely

00:53:44.580 redid the

00:53:45.700 form of

00:53:47.400 management in

00:53:48.000 the dormitory,

00:53:49.080 and I swear

00:53:49.560 to God, I

00:53:50.680 got a private

00:53:51.280 room and I

00:53:52.900 got paid,

00:53:54.680 and I also,

00:53:55.620 you know, we

00:53:55.920 had the

00:53:56.940 students doing

00:53:57.480 the jobs of

00:53:58.300 security and

00:53:59.480 cleaning the

00:54:00.440 laundry room

00:54:01.060 and other

00:54:01.660 stuff, and

00:54:02.960 I took some

00:54:03.980 of those jobs

00:54:04.560 too, because

00:54:05.740 anybody could

00:54:06.420 volunteer for

00:54:07.080 them.

00:54:07.800 So there

00:54:08.140 were days

00:54:08.520 when I

00:54:08.880 would be

00:54:09.160 working security

00:54:11.780 at night,

00:54:12.500 letting people

00:54:12.980 in and out

00:54:13.440 of the

00:54:13.720 building,

00:54:14.280 getting paid

00:54:14.680 for that.

00:54:15.580 I'd be doing

00:54:16.100 my homework

00:54:16.600 in between,

00:54:17.920 and then when

00:54:18.640 there was

00:54:18.880 nobody there

00:54:19.480 and I was

00:54:19.920 tired of

00:54:20.380 homework, I'd

00:54:21.120 walk across

00:54:21.940 the hall and

00:54:22.780 clean the

00:54:23.720 laundry room,

00:54:24.380 which I also

00:54:24.780 got paid for.

00:54:26.020 So I got

00:54:26.360 paid to be a

00:54:27.320 student manager,

00:54:28.880 paid to work

00:54:29.400 security, and

00:54:30.260 paid to clean

00:54:31.540 the laundry room,

00:54:32.300 and I did

00:54:32.660 them all at

00:54:33.020 the same time.

00:54:34.200 So I was

00:54:34.820 working three

00:54:35.420 jobs and doing

00:54:36.140 my homework

00:54:36.760 while I was

00:54:37.920 just sort of

00:54:38.520 staying up late.

00:54:40.800 So the

00:54:42.280 three of us

00:54:43.200 we took

00:54:43.560 over, years

00:54:44.780 later, that

00:54:45.880 dormitory still

00:54:46.720 had that same

00:54:48.680 structure.

00:54:49.520 I think they

00:54:50.020 ended up losing

00:54:51.840 it.

00:54:52.800 But I was

00:54:55.160 kind of

00:54:55.480 persuasive back

00:54:56.240 in college.

00:54:58.840 And those are

00:54:59.640 just the stories

00:55:00.240 I can tell you.

00:55:01.620 It was pretty

00:55:02.480 fun times.

00:55:04.480 All right, so

00:55:05.180 that's enough of

00:55:05.660 my college stories.

00:55:06.440 The only

00:55:09.080 person who

00:55:09.760 had a better

00:55:10.480 scam in

00:55:11.140 college was

00:55:12.260 one of the

00:55:12.640 other students

00:55:13.440 who worked

00:55:13.980 security for

00:55:15.360 the whole

00:55:15.660 campus.

00:55:16.700 So he was

00:55:17.180 a student

00:55:17.700 who had a

00:55:18.760 part-time job

00:55:19.520 working security.

00:55:20.860 And mostly

00:55:21.220 that meant he

00:55:21.740 had a big

00:55:22.060 walkie-talkie,

00:55:23.340 and he would

00:55:23.700 just go around

00:55:24.460 and let people

00:55:25.240 in if it was

00:55:27.000 after the

00:55:27.600 curfew at the

00:55:28.300 time that the

00:55:28.800 buildings were

00:55:29.420 locked.

00:55:30.540 So he would

00:55:31.100 get a call,

00:55:31.720 go to a

00:55:32.860 dormitory and

00:55:34.180 let somebody in,

00:55:34.920 and he'd walk

00:55:35.860 over and do

00:55:36.300 it.

00:55:37.120 But he didn't

00:55:37.940 like doing

00:55:38.320 that, so

00:55:38.860 instead, he

00:55:40.240 would come to

00:55:40.820 our dormitory

00:55:41.660 and just

00:55:44.300 party.

00:55:45.620 So instead of

00:55:46.520 working and

00:55:47.320 letting people

00:55:47.900 in, he would

00:55:48.800 just put his

00:55:49.260 walkie-talkie

00:55:49.940 down and get

00:55:50.960 really high and

00:55:52.380 have a good

00:55:52.860 time with us.

00:55:54.160 And then a

00:55:54.880 call would come

00:55:55.380 in, it's like,

00:55:55.780 we've got

00:55:56.640 something that

00:55:57.480 needs to be

00:55:57.840 let in at

00:55:58.380 our XY

00:55:59.200 dormitory.

00:56:00.460 And he'd be

00:56:00.820 like, okay,

00:56:01.520 I'm on my way.

00:56:02.540 And then he'd

00:56:02.960 just keep

00:56:03.300 partying.

00:56:04.920 Then he'd

00:56:05.360 get another

00:56:05.720 call.

00:56:06.540 It's like,

00:56:06.820 oh, they're

00:56:07.060 still waiting.

00:56:07.800 Are you on

00:56:08.380 your way?

00:56:08.760 He's like, oh,

00:56:09.200 yeah, I'm

00:56:09.500 almost there.

00:56:10.060 I'm on my

00:56:10.460 way.

00:56:10.820 And then he'd

00:56:11.140 just put it

00:56:11.560 down and he'd

00:56:12.060 keep partying.

00:56:13.080 And then he'd

00:56:13.500 get a third

00:56:14.000 call.

00:56:14.720 It's like,

00:56:15.200 cancel that.

00:56:16.540 Somebody was

00:56:17.100 leaving the

00:56:17.480 building and

00:56:17.820 let him in.

00:56:18.600 He's like, oh,

00:56:19.280 I was almost

00:56:19.820 there.

00:56:20.480 He'd put it

00:56:20.920 down.

00:56:21.520 And he would

00:56:21.940 just stay

00:56:22.260 there partying

00:56:23.340 with us.

00:56:24.220 And everybody

00:56:24.720 who was trying

00:56:25.180 to get in a

00:56:25.780 building, if

00:56:26.380 they waited

00:56:26.760 long enough,

00:56:27.340 somebody was

00:56:27.780 leaving.

00:56:28.640 And they

00:56:28.820 would just

00:56:29.140 go in when

00:56:30.100 somebody left.

00:56:31.180 So he would

00:56:32.160 just get paid

00:56:33.420 for lying to

00:56:35.120 his walkie-talkie.

00:56:36.560 It was pretty

00:56:37.140 funny at the

00:56:37.660 time, I have

00:56:38.180 to admit.

00:56:39.040 All right.

00:56:40.560 With that in

00:56:41.380 mind, did I

00:56:42.800 beat Christina

00:56:43.400 in chess?

00:56:45.220 I did.

00:56:46.160 I believe I

00:56:46.980 did, yes.

00:56:48.040 And I will

00:56:48.980 talk to you

00:56:49.720 in the morning.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 01, 2020

Episode 884 Scott Adams： Taking Questions and Solving Pandemics Like it's Nothing

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