Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 887 Scott Adams： Grab Your Beverage and Get in Here!

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in here. It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, and you have come to the right place.

00:00:17.240 This is where all the simultaneous sipping happens. Yeah, it does.

00:00:22.700 And all you need is...what? What do you need? A cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:37.180 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything, including the pandemic, better. It's called the simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:47.360 Mmm. White blood cell count increasing even as we sip. It's amazing, really.

00:00:59.420 Okay. Well, first, an update on my presidency, my candidacy. As you know, I announced my run for president, but I'm running as an emergency backup spare.

00:01:13.940 Just in case, Joe Biden is the nominee and he's not capable of being president, but just in case something happens to President Trump.

00:01:22.240 Let's say he decides to retire before November. Don't you want an emergency backup? Well, I'll be your emergency backup.

00:01:29.420 Do not vote for me if President Trump is still in the election and still looking healthy. Vote for him instead if you're a Trump supporter.

00:01:42.260 But if anything happens and your only other choice is Joe Biden, I'm your emergency backup.

00:01:47.820 All right. The unemployment numbers around today, 6.6 million people filed for unemployment.

00:01:57.140 Now, according to my digital devices, the number of people who work in the United States is about 139 million, or at least recently, that was the number.

00:02:09.480 So 6.6 million are unemployed, or maybe additionally unemployed, but that's out of 139 people who are 139 million who are still working.

00:02:21.720 It's about 5%. So today it was about 5% out of work. I thought it was going to be a lot more. Didn't you?

00:02:30.120 Didn't you think the unemployment would be like 30% or something like that? I feel like most people can't go to work, but I guess people are getting paid, people are telecommuting, and maybe we'll see that double next month. I don't know.

00:02:46.180 But if it stayed that, if 6.6 million ended up being the worst of it, I don't think it will. It seems like it would have to go up in the next couple of weeks.

00:02:56.860 But if it were, we could get past that pretty easily. The problem is that it could get worse.

00:03:03.920 But I don't think you should be too afraid of today's number, because as a percentage, it's manageable, unless it doubles and triples in the coming weeks.

00:03:19.040 Here's my grade for the task force working on the coronavirus. I'm going to give it an F, an F grade.

00:03:28.540 Now, they may be doing good things that we can't see. I assume they are, right? I assume that they're doing great work behind the scenes, working hard.

00:03:38.120 I think it's all the right people working on it and everything. And I think that they're moving heaven and earth and doing what they can.

00:03:43.920 I give them a failing grade, because now it's been weeks, and I can't answer this question.

00:03:50.740 I watch every one of the press conferences, and I can't answer the question, when will we have enough masks?

00:04:01.480 Seriously? I can't answer that question yet? How about this one?

00:04:07.160 When will we have enough tests, test kits, both for testing people that may or may not have it and for testing the public in general?

00:04:15.920 When? Is that next week? Is it in four months? You don't know. I don't know. It's the most basic thing you'd have to know

00:04:26.620 in order to judge that your task force was competent, and we don't know. We don't even have a guess.

00:04:32.680 I don't know if it's a month or a year. I don't know if we could ever get there.

00:04:35.920 How about the results of the hydroxychloroquine?

00:04:39.760 Are you feeling like you're getting good information about how that's going? No. No, you're not.

00:04:46.300 It might be the most important thing that's going on, and your task force is intentionally not talking about it.

00:04:54.320 And when they talked about masks, they gave you the wrong information. Don't wear them.

00:04:58.520 So that was misinformation.

00:04:59.480 So of the two most important things, where are we on tests? Well, three, really.

00:05:06.620 Where are we on tests, masks, and knowledge about and supply of hydroxychloroquine?

00:05:14.100 The three things that I think are the most important, you have no visibility on after weeks.

00:05:20.360 Now, do you think that it's impossible to know those numbers?

00:05:25.580 Or even sort of directionally, you know, we think we can have it done in two weeks, but it might take a month?

00:05:33.520 That would tell you something.

00:05:36.000 But I hate to be grading harshly, but it's an emergency.

00:05:41.280 I think in normal times, I might be a little more flexible.

00:05:45.060 But you have the entire psychology of the country, which is the thing upon which your economy depends,

00:05:53.460 or the way we think about the economy, is going to be the thing that makes it recover or not.

00:06:01.380 And the way we're thinking about it is completely crippled by the fact that the three most important pieces of information,

00:06:09.580 in my opinion, which is, you know, the availability of supplies generally,

00:06:14.720 but I would say masks is going to be a more important hydroxychloroquine supply.

00:06:20.380 And, you know, and also I'd like to know how many people are being hospitalized

00:06:24.740 that are having the hydroxychloroquine early.

00:06:29.120 There was one doctor that was on Laura Engram's show last night

00:06:33.500 saying that it was a game changer, the hydroxychloroquine was,

00:06:37.240 and that none of the people he gave it to for five days,

00:06:42.080 in other words, the people who got it early enough in their symptoms,

00:06:45.740 none of them ended up being intubated and on ventilators.

00:06:49.440 None.

00:06:50.480 So, you know, it wasn't a controlled test,

00:06:55.740 but the doctor was saying that the odds of that happening,

00:06:58.880 given all the other groups and what percentage of them get on ventilators,

00:07:03.000 he said that the odds of the hydroxychloroquine not being the thing that made the difference

00:07:09.780 are just vanishingly small at this point.

00:07:12.540 Could be wrong, but that's what it looks like at this point.

00:07:16.200 All right, so I give the task force a failing grade for communication

00:07:20.720 because their communication has an impact on our morale and our psychology.

00:07:27.400 The psychology has an impact on the economy.

00:07:30.300 And if we break that, you can't put it back together again too easily, right?

00:07:36.000 Right now, the economy is not broken.

00:07:38.840 It's just sort of on a timeout, which is very different.

00:07:41.820 It's not broken.

00:07:42.960 It's just paused.

00:07:43.960 And if we don't get this information pretty soon,

00:07:51.660 I don't know how much longer the country can hold that together

00:07:55.140 because we're literally holding the economy together by will.

00:08:00.220 I mean, that's not an exaggeration.

00:08:03.240 The entire economy of the world is being held together by our minds.

00:08:10.260 That's not an exaggeration

00:08:11.680 because what we think of it is what it becomes and what it will be.

00:08:16.520 Because if you think it's good, you invest.

00:08:19.000 If you think it's going to be bad, you fire your staff and you don't invest.

00:08:22.600 It's a completely different direction.

00:08:25.240 So task force, please, even if you have to lie to us

00:08:30.520 and then correct it as you get better information,

00:08:33.560 when are we going to have enough masks?

00:08:35.540 When are we going to have this hydroxychloroquine

00:08:38.220 that we could take early on, enough of it?

00:08:42.340 You know, and when are we going to have enough test kits?

00:08:46.960 You know, here's what I don't want to say.

00:08:49.120 I'm trying not to swear because I'm getting really mad.

00:08:52.900 So I'll try to take it down a little level.

00:08:56.180 Maybe I'll go a whole day without swearing.

00:08:58.660 Who knows?

00:08:59.040 It's deeply irresponsible to watch these experts up there

00:09:07.520 and our president simply spouting raw numbers.

00:09:12.400 Here's what I...

00:09:13.420 I'm just going to swear, okay?

00:09:15.260 I'm just going to warn you, I can't get past this next section

00:09:20.020 without using a curse word.

00:09:23.180 So send the kids away, turn down the volume, whatever you want.

00:09:29.260 Here's what I don't want to see today.

00:09:33.060 So I assume there'll be another coronavirus task force.

00:09:36.300 I don't fucking want to see them spouting raw numbers again.

00:09:40.740 Oh, we got 4,000 ventilators, and I sent 20,000 over here,

00:09:44.480 and 6,000 gloves, and I sent 4,000 masks.

00:09:47.840 Fuck you.

00:09:49.340 Fuck you.

00:09:51.100 Don't give us raw numbers.

00:09:53.100 Tell us how many you need.

00:09:55.340 How close are you to that?

00:09:57.740 How many are in the pipeline?

00:09:59.920 That'd be good.

00:10:00.820 Don't give us fucking raw numbers like we're fucking idiots.

00:10:04.860 All right?

00:10:05.520 You have been wrong, you, the professionals,

00:10:09.720 both the politicians and the experts,

00:10:12.340 you've been fucking wrong about everything.

00:10:14.540 You've been wrong about the fucking mask.

00:10:16.420 You've been wrong about the hydrochloroquine.

00:10:18.020 You've been wrong about the China numbers.

00:10:19.440 You've been probably wrong about the models.

00:10:21.540 You've been fucking wrong about everything.

00:10:24.480 And you stand in front of us,

00:10:26.040 and you fucking say these raw numbers like that

00:10:29.100 is supposed to make us fucking happy.

00:10:31.820 You're blowing this fucking smoke up our asses

00:10:34.960 in the middle of a goddamn emergency

00:10:37.320 while the economy is melting down,

00:10:39.580 and you're giving us these fucking raw numbers

00:10:41.760 like we're fucking idiots.

00:10:43.740 Like we're idiots.

00:10:45.120 Oh, it's 4,000.

00:10:47.040 Oh, I guess that's good.

00:10:48.380 Oh, I'll go back to work, male.

00:10:50.400 Got 4,000 dental ears.

00:10:52.340 Is that a lot?

00:10:54.120 Is that too much?

00:10:55.840 Give us a fucking piece of information,

00:10:58.600 you goddamn incompetent motherfuckers.

00:11:02.240 I'm not going to go one more day being okay with this.

00:11:05.740 It's a fucking emergency.

00:11:07.860 Give us some fucking useful numbers for once.

00:11:11.420 How about not fucking lying to us and we know it?

00:11:14.760 How about that?

00:11:16.420 If you don't know the numbers,

00:11:18.240 just say you're incompetent.

00:11:20.540 Just tell us.

00:11:22.020 And maybe we can do something about it.

00:11:24.460 But please, stop fucking lying to us

00:11:27.960 about the numbers.

00:11:31.040 The raw numbers don't help us at all.

00:11:36.380 Not even a little bit.

00:11:37.380 If you can't put them in context,

00:11:40.360 don't fucking even talk.

00:11:43.260 Just let somebody else talk.

00:11:45.800 This is for you, Mr. President.

00:11:47.880 I love you, Mr. President.

00:11:49.540 But we can't have another day

00:11:51.040 of these fucking raw numbers out of context.

00:11:54.480 It was way too long.

00:11:56.820 I was a little bit patient for a while.

00:11:58.780 But now, I'm fucking mad.

00:12:02.500 All right?

00:12:03.280 You've got to fix this today.

00:12:05.340 You've got a few hours.

00:12:06.980 Make up some fucking numbers

00:12:08.660 if you don't have good numbers.

00:12:09.820 Just make up some fucking numbers.

00:12:11.900 Jesus fucking Christ.

00:12:16.000 Whew.

00:12:19.000 All right.

00:12:23.540 Here's something interesting or not.

00:12:26.140 I got a message on LinkedIn.

00:12:27.640 A lot of people are sending me

00:12:29.240 useful information

00:12:31.680 that I can send around to somebody.

00:12:35.500 And apparently, there's a company,

00:12:36.940 I won't name the company,

00:12:37.900 that can make 70 million test kits

00:12:40.840 for the coronavirus in two weeks.

00:12:43.900 So they're capable of making

00:12:45.480 70 million tests in two weeks,

00:12:48.900 but they're not doing it

00:12:49.980 because they need a big check.

00:12:52.780 So right now, they don't know how to

00:12:54.640 sell it to individual hospitals and stuff.

00:12:57.300 They don't really,

00:12:57.940 they're not set up for that.

00:12:59.520 They're more set up for, you know,

00:13:01.480 selling big bunches.

00:13:04.140 So I've passed that along to, you know,

00:13:06.660 my most helpful contacts in the government.

00:13:11.340 And, you know, maybe this is a real company

00:13:14.360 and maybe they can really do that.

00:13:16.220 Maybe it makes a difference.

00:13:17.740 But I was kind of shocked

00:13:19.140 that at this point in the process,

00:13:21.220 there would be a company

00:13:22.040 that makes test kits.

00:13:24.540 I think they need to be validated

00:13:26.420 and approved or something too.

00:13:28.360 But there would be a company

00:13:29.640 that could make this many test kits.

00:13:31.440 It's in another country.

00:13:32.420 It's not an American kind of company.

00:13:34.540 And we haven't already

00:13:36.000 climbed down their pants

00:13:38.500 to figure out what they can do

00:13:39.700 and how quickly they can do it.

00:13:41.260 So I'm a little skeptical

00:13:42.600 that as of today,

00:13:45.520 there would be a company

00:13:46.220 that can make 70 million test kits

00:13:48.560 and yet hasn't got a productive contact

00:13:51.940 in some government

00:13:52.740 to send them a check.

00:13:54.920 I'm a little skeptical,

00:13:56.520 but I passed it along anyway.

00:14:00.380 If you're following along on Zoom,

00:14:03.360 the application that lets you

00:14:05.360 make a video call with your teammates,

00:14:08.440 you probably know that there's

00:14:09.440 a little bit of a problem there

00:14:11.000 that's becoming more of a problem,

00:14:13.360 I think, as time goes by,

00:14:14.520 that a lot of their engineers

00:14:16.620 live and work in China

00:14:18.260 and some of the traffic

00:14:20.300 goes through servers in China.

00:14:23.160 So if you're doing

00:14:23.860 a top-secret business meeting

00:14:27.060 about your technology

00:14:28.260 and you're using Zoom,

00:14:29.720 which is the most popular software

00:14:32.240 for doing this,

00:14:33.620 probably, I don't know,

00:14:34.880 eight out of ten businesses

00:14:36.580 are using it routinely,

00:14:38.860 especially now,

00:14:40.880 your secrets are actually

00:14:42.380 going through a server in China.

00:14:43.720 when you know that China

00:14:45.380 is stealing our secrets,

00:14:46.720 it's not like you worry

00:14:49.120 that they might.

00:14:51.640 It's way past worrying

00:14:55.020 that they might steal your secret IP.

00:14:58.040 They are.

00:14:59.500 It's just the most confirmed,

00:15:01.300 documented thing in the world.

00:15:03.480 So Zoom has a problem.

00:15:05.560 Now,

00:15:06.940 I will just tell you

00:15:10.900 that there is a Zoom alternative,

00:15:14.060 which is,

00:15:15.720 which can be packaged up.

00:15:18.420 Right now,

00:15:18.960 it wouldn't work for everybody

00:15:20.320 because you'd have to scale it up.

00:15:22.320 But if there's anybody out there

00:15:23.720 who would like to invest

00:15:25.340 in a Zoom alternative

00:15:27.880 that does not go through China,

00:15:31.700 contact me.

00:15:33.600 So I'm looking for somebody

00:15:34.920 who's a billionaire

00:15:35.480 who can write a big check.

00:15:37.580 I'm not going to be doing

00:15:38.720 like fundraising or anything.

00:15:40.420 But if you're a billionaire

00:15:41.240 or you're in the government

00:15:43.720 and you can write a check

00:15:44.880 for a million and a half

00:15:46.260 to, you know,

00:15:47.740 just develop it

00:15:48.500 to the point of feasibility,

00:15:50.200 it's mostly already written.

00:15:51.920 So the actual code

00:15:55.200 is mostly done

00:15:56.400 and I've actually used it

00:15:57.960 and you can make a call

00:15:58.960 and it looks just like Zoom.

00:16:00.640 But it would need to be packaged up

00:16:02.580 in a company form

00:16:03.580 and you'd have to have

00:16:05.540 enough servers online

00:16:06.580 to handle the volume,

00:16:09.120 et cetera.

00:16:10.160 So it would be a big job

00:16:11.400 to productize it.

00:16:13.100 But if anybody's interested in that,

00:16:15.980 just tweet at me

00:16:17.200 and I'll hook you up.

00:16:19.380 And I am connected

00:16:20.340 to that,

00:16:20.960 just full disclosure,

00:16:23.640 I am connected

00:16:24.620 to that effort.

00:16:25.960 So just so you heard that.

00:16:27.980 Okay.

00:16:28.120 Let's see.

00:16:33.120 I have a question.

00:16:34.940 Does China's death tolls,

00:16:36.840 which we know are all bogus,

00:16:39.200 but I wonder if it includes

00:16:40.540 the political prisoners

00:16:42.080 that they carve up for parts.

00:16:45.600 Now, if you didn't know that,

00:16:46.840 apparently it's well documented

00:16:48.820 to the point of no doubt about it.

00:16:51.660 So China is using political prisoners

00:16:53.900 for parts.

00:16:56.300 They're actually keeping them alive.

00:16:59.180 I assume that they have anesthesia.

00:17:01.260 But in order to transfer organs

00:17:03.980 from someone to someone else,

00:17:05.800 you need the donor to be alive.

00:17:08.720 China can deliver

00:17:10.240 a heart and lung transplant

00:17:12.060 on demand

00:17:13.120 on the hour that you want it.

00:17:16.880 Now, you don't have to be

00:17:18.480 much of a transplant expert

00:17:19.920 to know

00:17:20.460 that if you can deliver

00:17:22.680 a specific organ

00:17:23.880 on a specific date,

00:17:26.300 it's because you killed somebody.

00:17:29.280 There's no mathematically,

00:17:31.520 statistically,

00:17:32.680 there's just no way

00:17:33.740 that somebody would coincidentally

00:17:35.980 be a donor

00:17:37.300 within driving distance

00:17:39.360 and within an hour

00:17:41.080 of when you needed the surgery.

00:17:42.240 So the experts

00:17:44.140 know for sure

00:17:45.580 and they know

00:17:47.560 that the operations

00:17:48.200 are happening

00:17:48.780 because Westerners

00:17:49.900 sometimes go over there

00:17:50.840 and get the operation

00:17:51.900 because they can't get

00:17:53.400 a heart and lung

00:17:54.200 on demand anywhere else

00:17:55.400 because nobody else

00:17:56.600 is killing people

00:17:57.360 for hearts and lungs.

00:17:59.220 So I'm wondering

00:18:00.680 if it's true

00:18:02.100 the high numbers,

00:18:03.540 I saw some numbers

00:18:04.260 like over 300,000 people

00:18:06.560 might have died

00:18:07.280 from the coronavirus

00:18:08.200 in China.

00:18:10.900 Now imagine if 300,000 died,

00:18:13.640 most of them

00:18:14.740 are probably elderly

00:18:15.620 and would not qualify

00:18:17.020 for any kind of a transplant,

00:18:18.760 but how many people

00:18:19.740 who were, let's say,

00:18:21.400 Chinese Party officials

00:18:23.500 who could be saved

00:18:27.260 with, let's say,

00:18:28.040 a lung transplant

00:18:28.940 because, you know,

00:18:29.820 lungs go bad

00:18:30.700 with the coronavirus.

00:18:32.280 How many,

00:18:32.860 how many Communist Party

00:18:35.660 members in China,

00:18:37.300 you know,

00:18:37.580 people who are rich

00:18:38.420 or connected,

00:18:39.380 how many of them

00:18:40.360 are alive

00:18:41.020 because they killed

00:18:43.200 a political prisoner

00:18:44.280 and took that person's

00:18:46.400 heart and lungs

00:18:47.400 and put it into

00:18:48.460 the Chinese official?

00:18:51.700 Probably more than one.

00:18:53.500 Yeah, I don't know.

00:18:54.840 Could be a few.

00:18:56.620 Just put that out there.

00:19:00.440 All right.

00:19:02.420 I suggested,

00:19:03.620 I put this idea out there.

00:19:04.760 I was just seeing

00:19:05.580 what kind of appetite

00:19:06.880 there was for this.

00:19:08.440 But I want to tell you

00:19:09.220 how clever this is.

00:19:10.300 So on the surface,

00:19:11.800 it doesn't sound clever,

00:19:13.560 but then I'll tell you

00:19:14.220 what the clever thing is.

00:19:15.360 All right.

00:19:16.420 So I tweeted,

00:19:17.680 let's start expelling

00:19:18.980 the kids of Chinese elites

00:19:20.760 who are going to college

00:19:22.240 in the United States.

00:19:23.500 in alphabetical order,

00:19:25.400 one for every death

00:19:26.420 from fentanyl

00:19:27.460 or coronavirus.

00:19:29.120 Now, of course,

00:19:29.520 it wouldn't take long

00:19:30.380 before they were all gone,

00:19:31.820 but there are quite a few

00:19:32.920 children of the rich people,

00:19:36.340 the elites,

00:19:36.960 the connected people

00:19:37.760 in China

00:19:38.260 who, as a status symbol,

00:19:41.880 go to college

00:19:42.820 in the United States.

00:19:44.080 Because if you're

00:19:44.800 a Chinese official,

00:19:46.600 you'd like to say

00:19:47.360 that your kid

00:19:48.640 went to Harvard

00:19:49.300 or Stanford

00:19:50.120 or some good

00:19:51.300 American college.

00:19:53.320 And of course,

00:19:53.860 they take this training

00:19:55.200 back to China

00:19:56.000 where China,

00:19:57.860 you know,

00:19:58.660 in most cases,

00:20:00.100 and China,

00:20:01.220 of course,

00:20:02.620 tries to destroy

00:20:03.380 the United States

00:20:04.220 with this newly learned

00:20:05.440 knowledge.

00:20:06.940 And so,

00:20:07.720 now,

00:20:08.260 the colleges,

00:20:09.420 of course,

00:20:09.900 the universities,

00:20:10.460 they make a lot of money

00:20:11.540 from the foreign students

00:20:12.620 because they can charge them

00:20:13.660 the full price.

00:20:15.140 You know,

00:20:15.300 the foreign students

00:20:16.300 are not necessarily

00:20:17.060 getting scholarships.

00:20:20.120 So,

00:20:20.800 it's profitable

00:20:21.600 for the colleges.

00:20:22.500 That's why they do it a lot.

00:20:24.160 But,

00:20:24.820 here's the strength

00:20:27.420 of the idea.

00:20:28.820 If you just said today,

00:20:31.760 you know,

00:20:32.100 just today,

00:20:33.020 all kids

00:20:34.180 of Chinese

00:20:35.380 elites

00:20:37.060 go home today.

00:20:39.680 Now,

00:20:40.240 that would make

00:20:40.620 a big statement,

00:20:41.780 but it wouldn't be

00:20:42.880 nearly as good

00:20:44.160 as my idea

00:20:46.300 of doing it

00:20:46.920 in alphabetical order.

00:20:49.160 Now,

00:20:49.700 I don't know

00:20:50.160 if you ever saw

00:20:50.700 Schindler's List,

00:20:51.940 but this is a

00:20:54.500 persuasion

00:20:55.760 technique

00:20:56.820 I learned

00:20:57.440 from a scene

00:20:58.120 in Schindler's List,

00:20:59.560 meaning that,

00:21:01.740 you know,

00:21:02.320 without going

00:21:03.160 into details,

00:21:04.060 a bad guy

00:21:04.600 was executing

00:21:05.620 prisoners

00:21:06.960 somewhat randomly,

00:21:09.920 and the prisoners

00:21:10.940 had to wait

00:21:11.700 and wonder

00:21:12.220 if they were next.

00:21:14.160 Now,

00:21:14.580 as bad

00:21:15.000 as it is

00:21:15.460 to be executed,

00:21:17.100 that happens

00:21:18.060 kind of quickly,

00:21:19.160 right?

00:21:19.500 You get shot

00:21:20.060 in the head,

00:21:20.420 you're kind of

00:21:20.800 dead quickly,

00:21:21.380 as bad as that is.

00:21:23.180 But not knowing

00:21:24.340 if in the next

00:21:25.840 five minutes

00:21:26.500 you're going to be

00:21:27.020 shot in the head

00:21:27.660 because you're

00:21:29.060 watching other people

00:21:29.780 get shot in the head

00:21:30.480 right in front of you

00:21:31.300 has got to be

00:21:32.880 far more

00:21:34.300 psychologically

00:21:34.980 devastating,

00:21:36.160 right?

00:21:36.620 stands to reason.

00:21:39.540 So here's the idea.

00:21:40.480 Instead of just saying

00:21:41.300 all Chinese children

00:21:42.880 of elites

00:21:44.180 have to leave

00:21:45.060 their colleges

00:21:45.520 and go home,

00:21:47.340 that would be like

00:21:48.080 pulling the band-aid

00:21:48.920 off all at once.

00:21:49.840 It would be bad.

00:21:50.980 It would get their

00:21:51.560 attention.

00:21:52.000 They wouldn't like it

00:21:52.600 at all.

00:21:53.300 But it would also be

00:21:54.260 over really quickly.

00:21:56.320 So it's not nearly

00:21:57.280 as good.

00:21:58.740 What you want to do

00:21:59.580 is say,

00:21:59.960 it's nothing personal.

00:22:01.400 We're not even going

00:22:02.120 to decide

00:22:03.160 who goes first.

00:22:04.040 We'll just do it

00:22:04.560 in alphabetical order.

00:22:06.380 And then on day one

00:22:07.240 you say,

00:22:07.680 looks like we've got

00:22:08.580 a week of fentanyl

00:22:09.740 overdoses

00:22:10.340 and this many

00:22:12.420 corona deaths.

00:22:13.760 Okay,

00:22:14.080 that's 175.

00:22:16.820 So we'll just

00:22:17.540 go down the alphabet

00:22:18.720 until you get

00:22:19.480 175 kids

00:22:20.700 and you just

00:22:21.060 send them home.

00:22:22.600 Just send them home.

00:22:23.700 You've got to be

00:22:24.000 gone by tomorrow.

00:22:25.780 And then

00:22:26.200 the next day

00:22:28.260 the elites

00:22:29.700 in China

00:22:30.400 say,

00:22:30.900 what the heck

00:22:31.680 just happened?

00:22:32.960 Wait a minute,

00:22:33.540 what's our last name?

00:22:35.220 My last name

00:22:35.920 starts with F?

00:22:37.760 Oh,

00:22:39.040 maybe we should

00:22:40.160 do something

00:22:40.560 about this.

00:22:42.060 So if it doesn't

00:22:43.320 hurt the elites,

00:22:44.340 it doesn't count

00:22:45.120 because they're

00:22:45.580 the only ones

00:22:46.060 who get a vote.

00:22:47.560 So I would say

00:22:48.380 let's just

00:22:49.580 send them home

00:22:50.400 in alphabetical order.

00:22:52.420 You don't have

00:22:52.900 to do it right away.

00:22:54.340 Just start

00:22:55.040 the process

00:22:56.140 in alphabetical order

00:22:57.200 and make it

00:22:58.980 just mechanical.

00:23:00.680 No human

00:23:01.700 decision involved.

00:23:03.200 We'll just

00:23:03.480 get a statistic,

00:23:05.120 go down

00:23:05.580 the alphabetical

00:23:06.360 list,

00:23:07.380 send them an email,

00:23:09.200 say,

00:23:09.640 be gone by Tuesday.

00:23:11.320 And you don't

00:23:11.700 even have to

00:23:12.080 negotiate about it.

00:23:13.480 You don't even

00:23:13.980 have to ask

00:23:14.740 China for anything

00:23:15.760 in return.

00:23:17.520 There's no

00:23:18.100 negotiating here.

00:23:19.560 You're just saying,

00:23:21.100 it's just the way

00:23:22.020 we want to run

00:23:22.560 things.

00:23:22.900 This is our system.

00:23:25.100 Don't even

00:23:25.700 argue it.

00:23:26.600 All right.

00:23:29.220 Here's a new

00:23:29.920 rule.

00:23:31.540 I'm stealing

00:23:32.240 this from

00:23:32.840 Bill Maher.

00:23:33.760 He always

00:23:34.000 says,

00:23:34.300 new rules,

00:23:35.200 which is a

00:23:35.680 good structure

00:23:36.260 for jokes,

00:23:37.220 by the way.

00:23:38.820 If you're

00:23:39.460 criticizing the

00:23:40.220 president's timing

00:23:41.280 of decisions

00:23:42.060 for this

00:23:42.700 coronavirus stuff,

00:23:44.300 you have to

00:23:45.080 produce a witness

00:23:45.760 who was in

00:23:46.320 the room

00:23:46.860 and watched

00:23:49.080 the president

00:23:50.160 ignore advice

00:23:51.280 from experts

00:23:52.080 at the

00:23:52.620 time.

00:23:54.280 Because

00:23:54.780 otherwise,

00:23:55.880 what exactly

00:23:57.020 are you

00:23:57.380 criticizing?

00:23:59.060 Now,

00:23:59.680 if the

00:24:00.060 president

00:24:00.440 was surrounded

00:24:01.660 by experts

00:24:02.460 who said,

00:24:03.000 you must do

00:24:03.640 X,

00:24:04.580 and the

00:24:05.180 president

00:24:05.560 ignored all

00:24:06.220 the experts

00:24:06.720 and said,

00:24:07.120 eh,

00:24:07.480 I think I'll

00:24:07.960 do Y.

00:24:09.360 Well,

00:24:09.580 that would

00:24:10.220 be a

00:24:10.760 legitimate

00:24:11.120 story.

00:24:12.660 That's

00:24:13.160 something I'd

00:24:13.660 want to

00:24:13.920 know.

00:24:14.940 Right?

00:24:16.180 But,

00:24:16.940 if all we

00:24:18.420 know is it

00:24:19.180 would have

00:24:19.540 been better

00:24:20.200 to do

00:24:21.300 something

00:24:21.660 earlier

00:24:22.080 or different,

00:24:23.700 does that

00:24:24.280 tell you

00:24:24.680 anything?

00:24:25.680 Because,

00:24:26.220 again,

00:24:26.560 everything good

00:24:27.280 should have

00:24:27.700 been done

00:24:28.020 earlier.

00:24:28.440 There's no

00:24:28.740 exception to

00:24:29.320 that.

00:24:29.960 So,

00:24:30.240 simply saying

00:24:31.120 it should

00:24:31.380 have been

00:24:31.580 done earlier

00:24:32.340 has no

00:24:34.140 meaning at

00:24:34.600 all,

00:24:34.920 except TV

00:24:36.440 idiots will

00:24:37.240 talk about

00:24:37.800 it forever.

00:24:39.040 But,

00:24:39.660 unless you

00:24:40.120 have a

00:24:40.400 witness that

00:24:41.500 actually watched

00:24:42.380 him listen

00:24:43.120 to experts

00:24:43.840 and decide

00:24:44.420 not to

00:24:44.840 follow their

00:24:45.260 advice,

00:24:46.880 you don't

00:24:47.260 really have

00:24:47.680 anything.

00:24:49.340 Because,

00:24:49.820 without that,

00:24:50.600 there's no

00:24:51.040 context.

00:24:51.760 It wouldn't

00:24:52.160 mean anything.

00:24:53.580 The leaders

00:24:54.280 of other

00:24:54.660 countries didn't

00:24:55.420 seem to do

00:24:55.920 much better.

00:24:57.120 Now,

00:24:57.320 I know some

00:24:58.260 people are

00:24:58.580 going to

00:24:58.680 say,

00:24:58.920 but,

00:24:59.600 Scott,

00:25:00.720 why were

00:25:01.540 we not

00:25:02.000 ready with

00:25:02.540 all the

00:25:02.860 ventilators

00:25:03.520 and the

00:25:04.420 test kits?

00:25:07.600 The answer

00:25:08.320 is,

00:25:09.100 nobody was.

00:25:10.320 Nobody was

00:25:10.920 ready with

00:25:11.500 that.

00:25:11.940 I mean,

00:25:12.140 South Korea

00:25:12.620 is a smaller

00:25:13.220 place.

00:25:13.820 Maybe they're

00:25:14.200 a little more

00:25:14.600 efficient.

00:25:15.560 Maybe they

00:25:15.900 got there

00:25:16.360 quicker.

00:25:17.380 But,

00:25:17.800 nobody was

00:25:18.300 ready.

00:25:18.700 of all

00:25:20.460 the nations

00:25:21.020 in the

00:25:21.320 world,

00:25:21.640 nobody was

00:25:22.120 ready.

00:25:23.340 And how

00:25:24.080 many

00:25:24.280 ventilators

00:25:24.800 did we

00:25:25.140 think we

00:25:25.520 needed?

00:25:26.480 How many

00:25:27.060 did we

00:25:27.360 think we

00:25:27.700 have?

00:25:28.020 We still

00:25:28.400 don't know.

00:25:29.440 We don't

00:25:29.780 know how

00:25:30.040 many we

00:25:30.320 had,

00:25:30.700 how many

00:25:30.980 we needed.

00:25:31.840 Do you

00:25:32.080 think that

00:25:32.420 the President

00:25:32.880 of the United

00:25:33.340 States was

00:25:34.940 ever aware

00:25:35.760 that we had

00:25:37.020 a ventilator

00:25:37.660 shortage?

00:25:39.260 Was he

00:25:39.800 even ever

00:25:40.160 aware of

00:25:40.660 that?

00:25:41.440 Do you

00:25:41.660 think the

00:25:41.960 President,

00:25:42.860 and you can

00:25:43.340 say this for

00:25:43.880 every leader

00:25:44.580 of every

00:25:44.940 other country,

00:25:45.380 Do you

00:25:46.000 think the

00:25:46.300 President of

00:25:46.820 the United

00:25:47.080 States was

00:25:47.560 aware that

00:25:48.900 we didn't

00:25:49.280 have the

00:25:49.720 right kind

00:25:50.240 of test

00:25:50.640 kits?

00:25:52.180 No.

00:25:53.460 I doubt

00:25:54.260 it.

00:25:55.200 That's kind

00:25:55.800 of down in

00:25:56.300 the details.

00:26:00.080 Anyway,

00:26:00.720 that's enough

00:26:01.080 about that.

00:26:04.840 I'm

00:26:05.360 watching the

00:26:05.860 most interesting

00:26:06.820 intellectual,

00:26:08.600 let's say,

00:26:10.720 difference of

00:26:11.320 opinion.

00:26:11.780 opinion.

00:26:12.900 What's

00:26:13.240 interesting

00:26:13.640 about it

00:26:14.200 is that

00:26:14.620 the two

00:26:15.100 people who

00:26:15.600 are on

00:26:15.880 opposite

00:26:16.220 sides of

00:26:16.860 this are

00:26:18.340 so smart.

00:26:20.180 Normally,

00:26:20.840 you see a

00:26:22.220 smart person

00:26:22.800 arguing with

00:26:23.340 a dumb

00:26:23.640 person.

00:26:24.660 Of course,

00:26:25.160 you always

00:26:25.480 agree with

00:26:25.920 the one

00:26:26.140 you think

00:26:26.460 is the

00:26:26.780 smart one.

00:26:27.920 But it's

00:26:28.360 unusual to

00:26:29.080 see somebody

00:26:29.580 who are

00:26:29.800 equally smart

00:26:30.760 at the

00:26:32.100 highest level

00:26:32.820 smart,

00:26:34.120 and also

00:26:35.080 deeply

00:26:35.620 disagreeing

00:26:36.320 while looking

00:26:36.780 at exactly

00:26:37.360 the same

00:26:37.780 facts.

00:26:39.140 To me,

00:26:39.660 that's just

00:26:40.460 so fascinating.

00:26:42.400 So here's

00:26:42.760 what's

00:26:42.940 happening.

00:26:43.680 So you

00:26:45.160 may be

00:26:45.520 familiar with

00:26:46.120 these names

00:26:46.600 from Twitter

00:26:47.180 or otherwise.

00:26:48.460 But Balaji

00:26:49.340 Srinivasan

00:26:50.280 has been

00:26:50.800 tweeting about

00:26:51.580 the dangers

00:26:52.140 of the

00:26:52.440 coronavirus

00:26:52.920 extensively

00:26:54.580 and in

00:26:55.540 detail,

00:26:56.260 tons of

00:26:57.020 good sources

00:26:57.620 and great

00:26:58.940 thinking about

00:26:59.640 it,

00:26:59.840 etc.

00:27:00.280 And he

00:27:00.740 would be

00:27:01.060 on the

00:27:01.520 side saying

00:27:03.060 it's as

00:27:04.600 big a

00:27:04.920 problem as

00:27:05.420 the experts

00:27:05.780 say it

00:27:06.140 is,

00:27:06.400 maybe even

00:27:06.820 bigger.

00:27:07.240 It's going

00:27:07.580 to be big.

00:27:08.540 It's a

00:27:08.960 big,

00:27:09.320 big deal.

00:27:09.800 And then

00:27:11.940 it's special.

00:27:13.660 Now,

00:27:14.180 to Balaji's

00:27:15.480 point,

00:27:16.500 you could

00:27:16.840 look at

00:27:17.200 China.

00:27:18.520 They had

00:27:19.120 more deaths

00:27:19.620 than they

00:27:19.900 say,

00:27:20.200 probably.

00:27:21.120 You could

00:27:21.420 look at

00:27:21.660 Italy and

00:27:22.120 Iran,

00:27:22.460 and you

00:27:22.620 could say,

00:27:22.880 oh,

00:27:23.340 well,

00:27:23.680 already we're

00:27:24.260 seeing that

00:27:24.700 there are

00:27:25.000 major

00:27:25.260 problems.

00:27:26.420 And then

00:27:26.740 we also

00:27:27.060 look at

00:27:27.440 what the

00:27:27.720 ER doctors

00:27:28.440 are saying.

00:27:29.560 And I

00:27:30.040 don't believe

00:27:30.540 you'll see

00:27:30.900 any ER

00:27:31.620 doctors who

00:27:32.400 say,

00:27:32.700 you know,

00:27:33.360 I'm working

00:27:34.080 ER,

00:27:34.860 and it's

00:27:35.260 basically just

00:27:36.040 the flu.

00:27:37.120 Have you

00:27:37.460 heard anybody

00:27:38.060 say that?

00:27:39.280 Have you

00:27:39.740 heard any

00:27:40.120 doctor who's

00:27:40.760 actually working

00:27:41.520 at the

00:27:42.140 front lines,

00:27:43.020 who agrees

00:27:44.220 with the

00:27:44.620 notion,

00:27:45.020 you know,

00:27:45.300 this is sort

00:27:46.540 of just like

00:27:47.020 more flu?

00:27:48.500 It's sort

00:27:48.940 of more like

00:27:49.500 that.

00:27:49.720 No,

00:27:49.940 not even

00:27:50.260 close.

00:27:50.740 Every

00:27:52.300 doctor who's

00:27:53.020 working on

00:27:53.540 it says

00:27:54.140 as clearly

00:27:54.900 as possible,

00:27:56.380 this is

00:27:57.400 not the

00:27:57.780 flu.

00:27:59.140 One of the

00:27:59.780 doctors said

00:28:00.340 that you

00:28:00.980 can even

00:28:01.600 tell the

00:28:02.120 people who

00:28:02.480 have it

00:28:02.820 by their

00:28:03.580 eyes get

00:28:04.100 red in

00:28:04.540 a very

00:28:04.860 specific

00:28:06.320 way,

00:28:06.900 and they

00:28:07.020 have a

00:28:07.200 very specific

00:28:07.960 cough and

00:28:09.820 bronchial

00:28:10.640 situation.

00:28:12.360 But anyway,

00:28:13.460 so Balaji

00:28:14.240 has on his

00:28:14.800 side that

00:28:15.960 the deaths

00:28:16.980 have gone

00:28:17.400 from 100

00:28:18.040 deaths a

00:28:18.460 day to

00:28:18.840 1,000 in

00:28:19.720 I don't

00:28:20.300 know,

00:28:20.460 a week,

00:28:20.740 or something

00:28:21.200 as you

00:28:23.140 would expect

00:28:23.600 if it's

00:28:23.960 really bad.

00:28:25.120 You've got

00:28:25.500 other countries

00:28:26.120 that are

00:28:26.440 already suffering

00:28:27.120 it sooner

00:28:28.320 that things

00:28:29.300 are really

00:28:29.600 bad there,

00:28:30.220 that sides

00:28:31.160 with him,

00:28:31.960 and then

00:28:32.380 the ER

00:28:32.700 doctors.

00:28:33.820 So he's

00:28:34.240 got quite

00:28:34.980 a bit of

00:28:36.300 scientific

00:28:37.560 and anecdotal

00:28:38.800 information

00:28:39.500 that is

00:28:40.400 compatible with

00:28:41.180 his view

00:28:41.600 that this

00:28:42.040 is really

00:28:42.500 a big,

00:28:43.300 big problem.

00:28:44.480 On the

00:28:44.940 other hand,

00:28:45.820 we have

00:28:46.540 equally

00:28:47.620 smart and

00:28:49.020 well-informed

00:28:49.700 Adam

00:28:50.220 Townsend.

00:28:51.680 One of the

00:28:52.520 people that

00:28:53.000 I look to

00:28:53.580 to make

00:28:54.980 sure my

00:28:55.400 opinion makes

00:28:56.660 sense,

00:28:57.440 and Balaji

00:28:58.820 as well.

00:28:59.940 So there are

00:29:00.720 people who

00:29:01.280 will instantly

00:29:02.460 modify my

00:29:03.440 opinion just

00:29:05.140 because they're

00:29:05.660 smarter,

00:29:06.280 and I just

00:29:07.200 change my

00:29:07.660 opinion sometimes

00:29:08.460 when smart

00:29:08.980 people say

00:29:09.560 something else.

00:29:12.500 But Adam

00:29:12.980 says,

00:29:14.080 and I think

00:29:14.700 it would be

00:29:15.460 really easy for

00:29:16.140 me to

00:29:16.640 mischaracterize

00:29:17.820 the nuance

00:29:18.480 of his

00:29:18.880 argument,

00:29:19.560 so I

00:29:20.040 apologize in

00:29:20.760 advance to

00:29:21.420 Adam if

00:29:22.000 I'm doing

00:29:22.320 that.

00:29:22.560 But I'll

00:29:22.720 try my

00:29:23.320 best to

00:29:24.820 capture it

00:29:25.420 right.

00:29:27.680 And I

00:29:28.380 think the

00:29:28.680 feeling is

00:29:29.140 that maybe

00:29:29.580 closing the

00:29:30.240 economy was

00:29:31.040 an overreaction

00:29:32.040 based on

00:29:34.020 what we're

00:29:34.340 seeing.

00:29:35.640 So,

00:29:36.640 and some

00:29:37.620 of the

00:29:37.960 sub-arguments

00:29:39.180 there are

00:29:39.600 that we're

00:29:40.540 probably

00:29:41.040 over-counting

00:29:42.020 the number

00:29:42.420 of deaths

00:29:42.820 in New York.

00:29:43.460 So,

00:29:45.620 does that

00:29:46.160 sound right

00:29:46.800 that we're

00:29:47.160 probably

00:29:47.460 over-counting

00:29:48.480 the number

00:29:49.080 of people

00:29:49.420 dying from

00:29:49.960 coronavirus?

00:29:50.940 Now,

00:29:51.260 the argument

00:29:51.600 here is

00:29:52.560 that,

00:29:53.160 especially for

00:29:53.860 older patients

00:29:54.760 who are

00:29:55.160 the majority

00:29:56.740 of the ones

00:29:57.200 who are

00:29:57.400 having the

00:29:57.740 bad problems,

00:29:59.040 older patients

00:29:59.920 almost always

00:30:00.760 have an

00:30:02.220 underlying

00:30:02.680 health condition.

00:30:04.620 Almost always.

00:30:05.620 You know,

00:30:05.780 if you're 70

00:30:06.400 plus,

00:30:07.500 you've got

00:30:08.000 something wrong

00:30:08.740 with you.

00:30:09.600 You know,

00:30:09.880 a little

00:30:10.160 hypertension,

00:30:11.320 got some

00:30:11.920 COPD,

00:30:13.460 maybe you've

00:30:15.500 got a

00:30:15.780 heart murmur,

00:30:16.740 maybe you've

00:30:17.140 got something.

00:30:19.720 So,

00:30:21.100 but every

00:30:22.360 time one

00:30:22.720 of those

00:30:22.960 people who

00:30:23.320 has some

00:30:23.700 other condition

00:30:24.540 also has

00:30:26.060 coronavirus,

00:30:28.040 you know,

00:30:28.460 are they

00:30:28.720 being recorded

00:30:30.760 correctly?

00:30:32.200 So,

00:30:32.440 in other

00:30:32.640 words,

00:30:32.940 is it the

00:30:33.340 coronavirus

00:30:33.700 that really

00:30:34.500 killed them?

00:30:35.340 Or did

00:30:35.900 they have

00:30:36.220 things that

00:30:36.660 were going

00:30:36.880 to kill

00:30:37.140 them anyway?

00:30:38.680 And so

00:30:38.940 the coronavirus

00:30:39.480 was,

00:30:40.240 you know,

00:30:40.940 just coincidentally

00:30:42.020 in their

00:30:42.440 body too.

00:30:44.020 I don't

00:30:44.380 know how

00:30:44.680 you'd get

00:30:45.000 to the

00:30:45.220 bottom of

00:30:45.520 that,

00:30:45.780 but I'm

00:30:45.980 just pointing

00:30:46.360 out that

00:30:47.140 that's an

00:30:47.940 argument.

00:30:50.020 Likewise,

00:30:51.380 the New York

00:30:52.640 data shows

00:30:53.320 that almost

00:30:54.260 nobody is

00:30:55.160 dying unless

00:30:56.960 they have an

00:30:57.580 underlying

00:30:57.880 condition,

00:30:59.260 which would

00:30:59.980 suggest,

00:31:01.300 well,

00:31:01.560 maybe it's

00:31:01.940 not that

00:31:02.420 bad for

00:31:02.980 regular people.

00:31:04.620 Except that

00:31:05.420 most of us

00:31:07.320 have some

00:31:07.640 kind of

00:31:07.920 underlying

00:31:08.320 condition.

00:31:08.760 if you

00:31:10.100 count

00:31:10.340 overweight

00:31:11.040 and asthma

00:31:12.580 and everything

00:31:13.080 else,

00:31:14.120 a lot of

00:31:14.700 us have

00:31:15.020 an underlying

00:31:15.500 condition,

00:31:16.520 including

00:31:16.860 me.

00:31:20.040 And then

00:31:20.740 also,

00:31:21.520 Adam has

00:31:22.540 correctly

00:31:23.400 pointed out

00:31:24.000 that I

00:31:24.320 believe the

00:31:24.980 models for

00:31:26.500 how many

00:31:26.820 people were

00:31:27.440 already supposed

00:31:28.380 to be dead

00:31:28.980 were not

00:31:30.220 even close.

00:31:30.780 So in

00:31:31.800 other words,

00:31:32.340 apparently

00:31:32.680 we're way

00:31:33.280 less in

00:31:34.260 deaths,

00:31:34.780 way under

00:31:35.760 than the

00:31:37.160 models at

00:31:38.040 one time

00:31:38.540 predicted.

00:31:39.620 Now,

00:31:40.880 let's pull

00:31:41.380 apart these

00:31:41.820 two arguments

00:31:42.380 because they're

00:31:42.920 not exactly

00:31:44.120 opposites.

00:31:45.460 I would say

00:31:46.040 that Adam

00:31:46.520 is more

00:31:47.740 skeptical of

00:31:49.680 the data,

00:31:50.640 which is

00:31:52.100 different from

00:31:52.600 saying the

00:31:53.960 data is

00:31:54.300 wrong.

00:31:55.180 I think

00:31:56.320 he's pointing

00:31:56.980 out that

00:31:58.240 you can't

00:31:58.660 really rely

00:31:59.500 on these

00:32:00.540 numbers and

00:32:01.300 therefore you

00:32:01.940 don't quite

00:32:02.480 know what

00:32:02.820 you're dealing

00:32:03.220 with and

00:32:04.720 you don't

00:32:05.120 necessarily

00:32:05.720 know that

00:32:06.300 it's so

00:32:06.660 bad you

00:32:07.060 should close

00:32:07.600 the entire

00:32:08.040 economy.

00:32:08.860 Here's what's

00:32:09.520 interesting about

00:32:10.160 this, besides

00:32:11.560 the fact that

00:32:12.060 they're both

00:32:12.420 smart and

00:32:12.960 they're looking

00:32:13.280 at the same

00:32:13.740 information.

00:32:15.320 We are so

00:32:16.380 close to

00:32:18.040 knowing who's

00:32:18.680 right and

00:32:20.000 neither of

00:32:20.480 them are

00:32:20.740 backing down.

00:32:22.620 We're so

00:32:23.320 close because

00:32:24.240 in two weeks

00:32:25.080 you're going to

00:32:26.620 know with a

00:32:27.160 fair degree of

00:32:27.920 certainty,

00:32:28.520 right?

00:32:29.280 Was this as

00:32:30.020 bad as

00:32:30.520 the expert

00:32:30.940 said?

00:32:32.200 Or did

00:32:32.680 we just

00:32:34.180 panic and

00:32:34.740 it was more

00:32:35.100 of a

00:32:35.340 hysteria

00:32:35.820 situation?

00:32:37.220 It was the

00:32:37.700 way we

00:32:37.980 were coding

00:32:38.460 the deaths.

00:32:40.520 One of

00:32:41.020 those two

00:32:41.420 positions is

00:32:42.080 going to be

00:32:42.400 right.

00:32:43.920 And we're

00:32:44.280 going to

00:32:44.460 know in

00:32:44.780 two weeks.

00:32:45.380 And the

00:32:45.560 fact that

00:32:45.940 they're both

00:32:46.420 pretty firm

00:32:48.780 in their

00:32:49.120 opposite

00:32:49.540 opinions just

00:32:50.720 fascinates

00:32:51.280 me.

00:32:51.600 It's the

00:32:51.800 two movies

00:32:52.800 on one

00:32:53.180 screen.

00:32:54.220 All right.

00:32:55.520 What will

00:32:56.100 be the impact

00:32:57.860 on climate

00:32:58.940 change

00:32:59.460 politics

00:33:00.580 after all

00:33:02.440 this is

00:33:02.760 done?

00:33:04.140 Because I've

00:33:04.940 never seen

00:33:05.640 experts take a

00:33:06.920 beating like

00:33:07.500 this.

00:33:07.820 Have you?

00:33:09.040 Can you

00:33:09.580 think of any

00:33:10.080 time in your

00:33:10.540 life that the

00:33:12.120 experts were

00:33:13.400 so thoroughly

00:33:15.120 discredited?

00:33:16.600 Not all the

00:33:17.780 experts and not

00:33:18.740 on all the

00:33:19.420 facts.

00:33:19.760 facts.

00:33:21.040 But the

00:33:21.760 whole don't

00:33:22.480 wear it,

00:33:22.920 you don't

00:33:23.180 need a

00:33:24.580 face mask

00:33:25.160 thing, that

00:33:26.880 felt like

00:33:27.400 some kind of

00:33:28.020 a final

00:33:28.500 straw.

00:33:29.880 Because it

00:33:30.500 was just

00:33:30.780 such a

00:33:31.140 blatant lie.

00:33:32.900 And maybe

00:33:33.560 they had

00:33:33.840 good intentions,

00:33:34.660 but it was

00:33:34.860 such a

00:33:35.440 blatant lie

00:33:36.260 that I

00:33:38.260 think experts

00:33:39.400 are forever

00:33:40.100 damaged.

00:33:41.240 At least

00:33:41.700 for those of

00:33:42.800 us who

00:33:43.040 lived through

00:33:43.460 this.

00:33:44.400 I've got a

00:33:45.000 feeling that

00:33:45.380 climate change

00:33:45.980 was going to

00:33:46.420 look different.

00:33:47.720 Now, I

00:33:49.060 tweeted a

00:33:49.560 page from

00:33:50.000 my book

00:33:51.020 Loser

00:33:51.440 Think, in

00:33:52.240 which I

00:33:52.560 was talking

00:33:53.000 about, so

00:33:54.220 before the

00:33:54.900 pandemic

00:33:55.380 happened, I

00:33:56.620 was saying

00:33:57.060 one argument

00:33:58.100 against spending

00:33:59.320 all your money

00:33:59.840 on climate

00:34:00.280 change is

00:34:00.880 it's not

00:34:01.560 the only

00:34:01.980 big threat.

00:34:03.480 And I

00:34:03.720 listed

00:34:04.060 pandemics

00:34:04.900 and asteroids

00:34:05.920 and cyber

00:34:07.440 attacks and

00:34:10.240 those sort

00:34:11.040 of things as

00:34:12.160 the other

00:34:12.540 risks.

00:34:14.040 Now, look

00:34:15.140 what this

00:34:15.720 pandemic did

00:34:16.620 to our

00:34:17.080 economies.

00:34:19.060 Now, just

00:34:19.960 imagine if

00:34:21.600 this had

00:34:22.000 happened, say,

00:34:22.780 two years

00:34:23.320 from now, and

00:34:25.060 you had a

00:34:26.080 president, Bernie

00:34:26.760 Sanders, just

00:34:28.480 hypothetically.

00:34:30.180 If socialism had

00:34:32.540 been in the

00:34:33.260 process of

00:34:34.180 revamping our

00:34:35.360 economy, transitioning

00:34:37.180 to it, let's

00:34:38.560 say the AOCs got

00:34:40.420 their way and

00:34:41.000 won, what kind

00:34:42.440 of shape would

00:34:43.020 we be in

00:34:43.540 now if we'd

00:34:45.320 spent that

00:34:46.000 much money on

00:34:47.260 Green New

00:34:47.700 Deal, could

00:34:49.060 we still do

00:34:49.720 as much as

00:34:50.320 we are, even

00:34:50.880 though we're

00:34:51.300 basically broke

00:34:52.540 already, could

00:34:53.680 we do as

00:34:54.100 much as we're

00:34:54.620 doing against

00:34:55.360 the pandemic?

00:34:56.500 So I don't

00:34:57.080 know the

00:34:57.320 answer to the

00:34:57.640 question, but

00:34:58.200 everybody who

00:35:00.840 thought they

00:35:01.320 were smart,

00:35:04.540 Nassim Taleb,

00:35:07.200 would say you

00:35:10.100 have to spend

00:35:10.780 as much as it

00:35:12.100 takes to fix

00:35:13.000 climate change

00:35:13.820 because it's

00:35:14.400 something that

00:35:15.320 could be a

00:35:16.140 gigantic

00:35:16.580 catastrophe.

00:35:19.120 And I

00:35:20.100 would say that

00:35:21.060 only makes

00:35:21.620 sense if you

00:35:22.140 only have one

00:35:22.680 problem, one

00:35:24.540 problem that

00:35:25.140 could end you,

00:35:25.920 then of course

00:35:26.420 you should

00:35:26.940 overspend to

00:35:27.780 drive that down

00:35:28.700 to zero, even

00:35:29.980 if you thought

00:35:30.460 it was a 1%

00:35:31.280 chance it would

00:35:31.960 take out the

00:35:32.440 planet, you

00:35:32.820 still want to

00:35:33.240 drive that to

00:35:33.780 zero.

00:35:34.760 But if you

00:35:35.300 have multiple

00:35:35.860 risks, you

00:35:37.980 just can't take

00:35:38.600 the same strategy

00:35:39.360 because you

00:35:39.860 don't have

00:35:40.240 infinite money to

00:35:41.240 do everything.

00:35:41.660 So as

00:35:46.060 somebody on

00:35:46.600 Twitter said

00:35:47.120 and some of

00:35:47.580 you have

00:35:47.860 said, I

00:35:48.240 think the

00:35:50.400 way out

00:35:51.100 looks like

00:35:52.020 this.

00:35:53.660 Once we

00:35:54.360 have enough

00:35:54.800 test kits

00:35:55.520 and we're

00:35:57.060 also giving

00:35:57.720 the, we

00:35:58.500 have enough

00:35:58.860 of the

00:35:59.140 hydroxychloroquine

00:36:00.240 and we're

00:36:00.600 giving it to

00:36:01.100 people early,

00:36:02.600 those two

00:36:03.400 things, plus

00:36:05.580 wearing masks,

00:36:06.760 plus keeping

00:36:07.620 grandma socially

00:36:08.600 isolated for a

00:36:09.460 while, probably

00:36:10.620 those things

00:36:11.400 might be

00:36:11.840 enough to

00:36:12.240 get us

00:36:12.480 back to

00:36:12.860 work.

00:36:13.700 Because if

00:36:14.360 it's true

00:36:14.820 that the

00:36:16.420 people who

00:36:17.440 are working

00:36:18.100 age, let's

00:36:18.900 say people

00:36:19.320 under 65,

00:36:21.340 if people

00:36:22.200 under 65

00:36:23.040 get the

00:36:24.560 hydroxychloroquine

00:36:25.640 early and

00:36:26.580 almost never

00:36:27.480 need a

00:36:27.840 ventilator,

00:36:29.280 then all of

00:36:30.060 your health

00:36:30.440 care problems

00:36:31.100 are largely

00:36:32.000 solved, because

00:36:32.800 it's really

00:36:33.140 the ventilator

00:36:34.220 stage where

00:36:34.860 all the

00:36:35.220 problems come,

00:36:36.780 and then the

00:36:37.800 rest of us

00:36:38.260 could test

00:36:38.740 like crazy,

00:36:39.340 keep grandma

00:36:41.080 locked up,

00:36:41.900 wear your

00:36:42.480 face masks

00:36:43.120 for a few

00:36:43.660 months until

00:36:44.200 you feel like

00:36:44.760 you're over

00:36:45.140 it, and

00:36:46.340 maybe you

00:36:46.780 can make it

00:36:48.180 to the point

00:36:48.600 where we

00:36:48.960 can get

00:36:49.360 the blood

00:36:51.820 antibodies in

00:36:52.860 us, and

00:36:53.780 some people

00:36:54.400 have a

00:36:54.940 natural

00:36:55.240 immunity, and

00:36:57.040 then you get

00:36:57.700 to the

00:36:58.120 vaccines.

00:36:59.120 So we do

00:36:59.800 have a way

00:37:00.260 out, but

00:37:01.680 the way out

00:37:02.380 depends on

00:37:03.120 knowing when

00:37:03.620 we'll have

00:37:03.940 enough test

00:37:04.940 kits, when

00:37:06.960 we'll have

00:37:07.260 enough masks,

00:37:08.640 and when

00:37:08.960 we'll have

00:37:09.280 enough hydroxychloroquine,

00:37:11.200 and the FDA

00:37:12.200 is still happy

00:37:12.960 with it, which

00:37:13.540 I think is a

00:37:14.360 given.

00:37:15.460 So we're

00:37:16.480 kind of close

00:37:17.240 to at least

00:37:18.580 knowing what

00:37:19.300 we need, but

00:37:20.860 as I

00:37:21.320 mentioned,

00:37:22.900 as I

00:37:23.440 mentioned,

00:37:24.220 our government,

00:37:25.820 the task

00:37:26.360 force, is

00:37:26.940 not telling

00:37:27.660 us how

00:37:28.760 long any

00:37:29.320 of those

00:37:29.620 things will

00:37:30.060 be.

00:37:30.680 When will

00:37:31.460 we have

00:37:31.760 enough tests?

00:37:32.480 When will

00:37:33.600 we have

00:37:33.900 enough drugs

00:37:34.380 and masks

00:37:34.940 and stuff?

00:37:36.800 There's no

00:37:37.460 excuse for

00:37:38.100 it anymore.

00:37:39.180 There's just

00:37:39.520 no excuse

00:37:40.120 for them

00:37:40.800 not giving

00:37:41.260 us that

00:37:41.620 kind of

00:37:42.040 visibility on

00:37:42.760 this.

00:37:43.020 Just no

00:37:43.340 excuse.

00:37:44.360 I could

00:37:44.720 not be

00:37:45.300 more angry

00:37:46.060 about that.

00:37:48.860 Is China

00:37:49.400 using the

00:37:50.560 sickened

00:37:51.480 bodies?

00:37:52.120 Using them

00:37:52.620 for what?

00:37:55.160 I mean,

00:37:55.780 is China

00:37:56.180 using the

00:37:56.800 blood serum

00:37:57.560 thing?

00:37:58.140 I believe

00:37:58.540 that they

00:37:58.980 did try it.

00:37:59.820 I think

00:38:00.080 others are

00:38:01.140 trying it

00:38:01.500 too.

00:38:02.480 big pharma

00:38:04.960 doesn't

00:38:05.360 want a

00:38:05.740 $20

00:38:06.080 cure.

00:38:07.280 That

00:38:07.580 might be

00:38:07.960 part of

00:38:08.300 the

00:38:08.400 problem.

00:38:11.320 Might

00:38:11.800 be.

00:38:13.520 Why

00:38:14.000 hasn't

00:38:14.360 the

00:38:14.560 Trump

00:38:14.840 administration

00:38:15.320 hired you

00:38:16.580 as a

00:38:16.920 consultant?

00:38:18.140 Well,

00:38:18.600 why would

00:38:18.980 they hire

00:38:19.340 me?

00:38:19.560 They get

00:38:19.800 it for

00:38:20.040 free.

00:38:24.360 About

00:38:24.840 pneumonia

00:38:25.320 vaccines,

00:38:26.000 I was

00:38:26.260 wondering

00:38:26.560 about that,

00:38:27.120 you know?

00:38:28.280 That's a

00:38:28.880 good question.

00:38:30.620 Does the

00:38:31.240 pneumonia

00:38:31.680 vaccine

00:38:32.620 protect you

00:38:34.560 from

00:38:35.000 coronavirus

00:38:35.820 since

00:38:36.300 coronavirus,

00:38:37.540 the risk

00:38:37.980 is that it

00:38:38.360 gives you

00:38:38.660 pneumonia?

00:38:39.140 That's a

00:38:39.380 good question.

00:38:40.560 Why has

00:38:41.920 nobody asked

00:38:42.620 that question

00:38:43.220 in public?

00:38:44.720 I have to

00:38:45.280 see it on

00:38:45.740 a comment

00:38:46.520 here.

00:38:47.340 I'd love to

00:38:47.720 see the

00:38:47.980 answer to

00:38:48.300 that.

00:38:51.000 China

00:38:51.620 sent

00:38:51.960 spreaders,

00:38:52.700 you think?

00:38:53.580 Yeah.

00:38:54.940 You know,

00:38:55.460 I don't know

00:38:57.160 about the

00:38:57.820 I don't

00:39:00.040 believe that

00:39:00.620 China did

00:39:02.320 this

00:39:02.600 intentionally,

00:39:04.100 but there's

00:39:06.240 a difference

00:39:06.640 of opinion

00:39:07.280 about whether

00:39:08.060 you could

00:39:08.500 tell if

00:39:09.360 a virus

00:39:10.780 was engineered.

00:39:12.500 So I've

00:39:13.180 heard smart

00:39:13.680 people say,

00:39:14.340 oh, you

00:39:14.700 could certainly

00:39:15.200 tell if it

00:39:15.700 was engineered,

00:39:16.880 to which I

00:39:18.140 say, well,

00:39:19.600 if the only

00:39:20.440 thing you

00:39:20.820 engineered was

00:39:22.220 combining parts

00:39:23.440 from existing

00:39:24.240 viruses,

00:39:24.740 you really

00:39:26.500 think you

00:39:26.860 could tell?

00:39:28.040 Because wouldn't

00:39:28.640 it look like

00:39:29.280 a virus like

00:39:30.720 every other

00:39:31.160 virus?

00:39:31.700 They all have

00:39:32.080 the same

00:39:32.520 kind of parts,

00:39:33.840 but they're in

00:39:34.280 different order,

00:39:34.940 basically.

00:39:36.300 I feel like

00:39:37.240 you could

00:39:37.560 engineer a

00:39:38.200 virus that

00:39:38.760 nobody would

00:39:39.280 know was

00:39:39.660 engineered,

00:39:40.440 as long as

00:39:40.900 you used

00:39:41.360 parts from

00:39:42.360 existing viruses

00:39:43.280 to give you

00:39:43.880 what you

00:39:44.140 wanted.

00:39:44.940 But I don't

00:39:45.420 think it

00:39:45.660 happened.

00:39:46.240 I think it's

00:39:46.700 more likely,

00:39:47.860 I do think

00:39:48.640 it's more

00:39:48.940 likely it came

00:39:49.580 from some

00:39:50.200 kind of a

00:39:50.680 lab, but

00:39:51.940 probably

00:39:52.240 accidentally.

00:39:54.740 All right.

00:39:56.900 Was Venezuela

00:39:57.900 a drug move,

00:39:58.760 a message to

00:39:59.580 China?

00:40:00.620 I believe so.

00:40:01.880 Yeah, let's

00:40:02.260 talk about that.

00:40:03.500 So I talked

00:40:03.880 about it a

00:40:04.220 little last

00:40:04.880 night.

00:40:06.640 Anything big

00:40:07.680 that's happening

00:40:08.240 in the world

00:40:08.840 at the moment,

00:40:10.240 you almost have

00:40:11.380 to always ask

00:40:12.060 yourself,

00:40:12.940 eh, what's

00:40:13.660 that got to

00:40:14.060 do with

00:40:14.340 China?

00:40:15.100 Because it

00:40:15.500 feels like

00:40:16.160 that's the

00:40:17.720 backdrop to

00:40:18.340 everything.

00:40:19.340 So when the

00:40:19.820 president announced

00:40:20.560 he was going

00:40:21.020 to do more

00:40:21.440 naval

00:40:22.000 interdicting,

00:40:26.320 mostly between

00:40:28.120 South America

00:40:30.380 and Central

00:40:31.240 America.

00:40:32.520 So it

00:40:32.920 wasn't really

00:40:33.460 the Mexican

00:40:34.480 cartels that

00:40:35.220 were going

00:40:35.540 after, well,

00:40:36.440 I don't know,

00:40:37.000 I'm not sure

00:40:37.460 which cartels

00:40:38.100 were involved,

00:40:39.040 but they were

00:40:39.420 going after the

00:40:40.220 routes between

00:40:41.280 South America

00:40:42.100 and Central

00:40:42.820 America that

00:40:43.400 would go over

00:40:43.880 water, mostly.

00:40:45.420 And I don't

00:40:46.320 know what that

00:40:46.700 means.

00:40:48.560 So here's my

00:40:49.520 question.

00:40:50.560 Are we so

00:40:51.180 good at

00:40:51.780 recognizing a

00:40:53.820 smuggling boat

00:40:54.780 that we can

00:40:56.480 identify them

00:40:57.480 and stop them?

00:40:58.680 I mean, it's a

00:40:59.100 big ocean.

00:41:00.500 Can we do

00:41:00.980 that?

00:41:01.680 Can we tell

00:41:02.240 every boat

00:41:02.940 and what they're

00:41:03.460 up to?

00:41:04.080 I mean, I

00:41:04.380 just don't

00:41:04.760 know if you

00:41:05.920 can interdict

00:41:07.380 anything.

00:41:08.700 So that's my

00:41:09.660 first question is,

00:41:10.560 does it really

00:41:11.040 even make any

00:41:11.640 difference if we

00:41:12.300 send our entire

00:41:13.000 Navy there?

00:41:14.240 Are we going

00:41:14.800 to even know

00:41:15.220 who to stop

00:41:15.820 and search?

00:41:16.720 I don't know.

00:41:17.900 But maybe we

00:41:18.700 do, or at

00:41:19.340 least it makes

00:41:19.740 some difference.

00:41:20.280 But here's

00:41:21.100 what I

00:41:21.360 think.

00:41:21.780 I think it

00:41:22.180 has more

00:41:22.540 to do with

00:41:23.060 moving our

00:41:23.700 naval assets

00:41:24.480 into the

00:41:25.060 area, if

00:41:26.520 you know

00:41:26.760 what I

00:41:27.000 mean.

00:41:27.880 Because Maduro

00:41:28.660 is still

00:41:29.160 there, and

00:41:29.640 we've now

00:41:30.020 put a price

00:41:30.600 on his

00:41:30.920 head, which

00:41:31.660 allows us,

00:41:33.040 I think he's

00:41:33.520 been determined

00:41:34.460 to be some

00:41:35.000 kind of a

00:41:35.560 criminal, which

00:41:36.720 allows us

00:41:37.260 basically to

00:41:38.040 kill him.

00:41:39.560 So we just

00:41:40.500 put a bounty

00:41:41.040 on his head,

00:41:42.700 essentially told

00:41:43.620 the world that

00:41:44.380 from our

00:41:45.220 perspective it's

00:41:45.980 okay to kill

00:41:46.640 him, and

00:41:47.740 then we just

00:41:48.140 moved all of

00:41:48.740 our military

00:41:50.060 assets into

00:41:50.980 his backyard,

00:41:52.560 but it's for

00:41:53.760 allegedly a

00:41:54.580 different reason.

00:41:57.400 Maybe.

00:41:58.620 Maybe the

00:41:59.540 only reason we're

00:42:00.560 moving our

00:42:01.260 military assets

00:42:02.180 there is to

00:42:03.300 take care of

00:42:03.760 this little

00:42:04.100 smuggling problem,

00:42:05.560 because apparently

00:42:06.260 Venezuela is

00:42:07.380 using the

00:42:08.040 drug money to

00:42:09.740 replace money

00:42:10.420 they're losing

00:42:10.920 on oil and

00:42:11.700 other stuff.

00:42:12.620 So it could

00:42:13.320 be they're just

00:42:13.840 starving the

00:42:14.400 Maduro regime,

00:42:15.700 and it's

00:42:16.100 exactly what

00:42:16.760 the president

00:42:17.160 says.

00:42:17.880 We're just

00:42:18.720 going to stop

00:42:19.140 the drug

00:42:19.500 trade so

00:42:20.980 that Maduro

00:42:21.480 doesn't get

00:42:22.000 this illegal

00:42:22.640 drug money.

00:42:23.220 Could be

00:42:23.460 just that.

00:42:24.880 Or it

00:42:26.560 could be an

00:42:27.120 excuse to

00:42:27.740 move our

00:42:28.100 assets into

00:42:28.940 the area

00:42:29.480 without people

00:42:30.920 thinking it's

00:42:31.920 an invasion.

00:42:33.720 Just in

00:42:34.380 case, we

00:42:35.980 need to do

00:42:36.380 a little

00:42:36.640 invading.

00:42:37.640 Now I

00:42:37.880 don't know

00:42:38.220 that we

00:42:38.500 would put

00:42:38.820 boots on

00:42:39.260 the ground.

00:42:40.840 I don't

00:42:41.240 know, I'm

00:42:41.640 not a military

00:42:42.380 strategist, but

00:42:43.780 if it all

00:42:44.140 comes down

00:42:44.600 to basically

00:42:45.800 killing one

00:42:46.580 guy, and

00:42:48.000 you've just

00:42:48.500 socialized it

00:42:49.800 with the

00:42:50.080 world, because

00:42:51.060 when the

00:42:51.340 president put

00:42:51.900 a price on

00:42:52.740 his head,

00:42:53.680 that was

00:42:54.240 sort of

00:42:54.700 saying to

00:42:55.140 the world,

00:42:56.340 hey, you

00:42:56.860 know, I'm

00:42:57.180 just giving

00:42:57.520 you a

00:42:57.740 warning, is

00:42:58.840 anybody going

00:42:59.380 to have

00:42:59.740 a problem

00:43:02.140 because we're

00:43:03.900 going to kill

00:43:04.280 this guy?

00:43:05.740 Anybody?

00:43:06.660 Because this

00:43:07.120 would be the

00:43:07.480 time to

00:43:07.860 complain.

00:43:09.560 I don't

00:43:10.160 know if

00:43:10.420 anybody complained.

00:43:11.240 I didn't

00:43:12.340 hear any, but

00:43:14.040 you can

00:43:14.480 imagine that

00:43:15.120 China wasn't

00:43:15.700 too happy,

00:43:16.960 because China

00:43:17.600 is probably

00:43:18.360 working with

00:43:19.260 Maduro, and

00:43:19.960 they don't

00:43:20.280 know if he's

00:43:20.920 replaced by

00:43:21.580 somebody else.

00:43:22.960 Let's say

00:43:23.440 somebody elected

00:43:24.480 democratically,

00:43:26.220 would they

00:43:26.680 work with

00:43:27.120 China?

00:43:27.620 Because China

00:43:28.040 had been one

00:43:29.400 of their

00:43:29.600 biggest trading

00:43:30.180 partners with

00:43:30.800 Venezuela.

00:43:31.980 I don't know

00:43:32.680 what that looks

00:43:33.140 like at the

00:43:33.560 moment, because

00:43:34.040 Venezuela is

00:43:34.680 falling apart.

00:43:36.740 But I

00:43:37.640 would think

00:43:38.020 that the

00:43:38.360 president's

00:43:38.940 larger strategic

00:43:40.000 objective is

00:43:41.080 to get

00:43:41.440 China out

00:43:42.220 of Venezuela,

00:43:43.460 to get

00:43:43.900 China out

00:43:44.560 of our

00:43:44.860 hemisphere.

00:43:45.820 I think

00:43:46.340 maybe that

00:43:46.900 matters more

00:43:47.500 than anything

00:43:48.120 else in the

00:43:49.120 long run.

00:43:50.080 Wouldn't you

00:43:50.480 think?

00:43:51.020 You don't

00:43:51.500 want China

00:43:52.500 to have that

00:43:53.440 much influence

00:43:54.080 over anything

00:43:54.820 in South

00:43:55.320 America?

00:43:56.500 So this

00:43:58.040 could be

00:43:58.700 this big

00:43:59.720 move to

00:44:00.400 maybe stop

00:44:01.100 some drugs,

00:44:01.880 but more

00:44:02.200 likely block

00:44:04.040 China.

00:44:04.980 So that's

00:44:05.360 what I

00:44:05.620 think.

00:44:06.480 That's what

00:44:06.860 I think.

00:44:07.160 it's a

00:44:11.460 cartel.

00:44:13.140 Okay.

00:44:15.260 Oil.

00:44:16.120 I don't

00:44:16.640 know if

00:44:16.860 anybody wants

00:44:17.520 oil anymore.

00:44:19.040 Oil is so

00:44:19.980 cheap, maybe

00:44:20.480 nobody wants

00:44:21.160 it anymore.

00:44:24.680 One theory

00:44:25.480 is that drugs

00:44:26.300 are how the

00:44:27.000 flu got here,

00:44:28.800 or the

00:44:29.500 virus.

00:44:30.500 Yeah, maybe.

00:44:32.560 Maybe.

00:44:33.080 But it

00:44:35.700 seems more

00:44:36.100 likely people.

00:44:37.560 So one of

00:44:38.100 the things

00:44:38.380 we're learning

00:44:38.880 is that the

00:44:39.660 amount of

00:44:40.460 viral load

00:44:41.360 you get

00:44:41.780 matters, so

00:44:42.920 that when

00:44:44.040 people are

00:44:44.560 singing in

00:44:45.420 the same

00:44:45.740 room, the

00:44:46.880 odds of

00:44:47.320 them all

00:44:47.660 getting it

00:44:48.120 are pretty

00:44:48.460 high.

00:44:49.960 So don't

00:44:50.800 do any

00:44:51.280 singing, and

00:44:53.560 wear your

00:44:53.980 face mask.

00:44:58.180 Azithromycin

00:44:58.660 is an

00:44:59.400 antibiotic.

00:45:00.260 That is

00:45:00.500 correct.

00:45:01.240 So the

00:45:01.520 azithromycin

00:45:02.220 is useful

00:45:03.540 if you

00:45:03.960 actually have

00:45:04.620 it, if

00:45:05.360 you have

00:45:05.680 the

00:45:06.280 coronavirus.

00:45:08.000 But if

00:45:08.480 you don't

00:45:08.800 have it, you

00:45:09.720 don't want an

00:45:10.280 antibiotic in

00:45:11.740 you.

00:45:13.700 Get China

00:45:14.380 out of

00:45:14.680 Africa, too.

00:45:17.560 Well, I

00:45:18.660 have a

00:45:18.880 feeling that

00:45:19.300 Africa is

00:45:19.840 just going to

00:45:20.240 blow up in

00:45:20.740 their faces.

00:45:22.720 You know,

00:45:24.260 so maybe

00:45:25.000 China can

00:45:25.500 have Africa.

00:45:27.760 Why did

00:45:28.460 CBS News

00:45:29.280 use footage

00:45:30.120 from an

00:45:30.540 Italian

00:45:30.920 hospital

00:45:31.540 when

00:45:32.420 describing

00:45:32.860 conditions

00:45:33.480 in New

00:45:33.800 York?

00:45:34.400 Well, I

00:45:34.800 don't think

00:45:35.220 that you

00:45:35.560 can bring

00:45:36.060 cameras in

00:45:36.820 to an

00:45:38.300 American

00:45:38.700 emergency

00:45:39.260 room because

00:45:39.980 of privacy.

00:45:41.600 So I'm

00:45:42.640 sure it's

00:45:43.020 just some

00:45:43.380 producer said

00:45:44.120 we need a

00:45:44.780 picture of

00:45:45.960 an operating

00:45:46.400 room, and

00:45:47.200 they had

00:45:48.440 one.

00:45:49.100 That's

00:45:49.320 probably all

00:45:49.760 it was.

00:45:53.860 Oil is

00:45:54.560 up 35%.

00:45:55.740 News of

00:45:56.420 the day.

00:45:58.000 Well, let's

00:45:58.580 see what the

00:45:58.980 stock market

00:45:59.520 looks like.

00:46:02.540 Stock market

00:46:03.400 looks smartly

00:46:05.780 up.

00:46:07.220 Smartly up,

00:46:08.060 at least in

00:46:08.560 a lot of

00:46:08.860 categories.

00:46:10.180 More up

00:46:10.860 than down.

00:46:13.280 Not bad.

00:46:14.560 All right?

00:46:14.960 So that's

00:46:15.300 good news.

00:46:16.100 You know, if

00:46:16.540 you have to

00:46:16.940 make a bet

00:46:17.700 on the

00:46:18.660 stock market

00:46:19.320 price, let

00:46:22.140 me give you

00:46:22.780 a rule that

00:46:24.440 will work

00:46:25.120 75% of

00:46:26.540 the time,

00:46:28.360 that whatever

00:46:28.960 the market

00:46:30.580 did yesterday,

00:46:31.460 it'll do the

00:46:31.920 other thing

00:46:32.420 the next

00:46:33.160 day.

00:46:34.060 So today

00:46:34.840 looks like

00:46:35.560 it's going

00:46:35.860 to be a

00:46:36.120 big up

00:46:36.520 day.

00:46:36.980 If it

00:46:37.540 ends the

00:46:37.940 day up,

00:46:39.260 you know,

00:46:39.620 3% to

00:46:40.100 5%, which

00:46:41.020 would be a

00:46:41.380 big day,

00:46:42.220 the odds

00:46:43.280 of tomorrow

00:46:43.880 also being

00:46:44.820 up, much

00:46:46.900 smaller.

00:46:47.280 So I'd

00:46:50.240 say there's

00:46:50.600 a 75%

00:46:51.620 chance in

00:46:52.500 our current

00:46:52.920 environment

00:46:53.360 that the

00:46:54.460 next day

00:46:54.980 will be

00:46:55.380 whatever is

00:46:55.860 the opposite

00:46:56.340 of today.

00:46:57.360 So if it

00:46:57.960 were bad,

00:46:58.420 it's going

00:46:58.640 to be good.

00:46:59.040 If it's

00:46:59.260 good, it's

00:46:59.620 going to

00:46:59.780 be bad.

00:47:00.960 But it's

00:47:01.580 not going

00:47:01.860 to happen

00:47:02.100 every time.

00:47:02.680 It's at least

00:47:02.920 75% of the

00:47:03.880 time.

00:47:04.580 And that's

00:47:04.920 what allows

00:47:05.340 you to

00:47:05.920 creep up

00:47:06.700 over time,

00:47:07.520 that your

00:47:08.140 ups outnumber

00:47:09.320 your downs

00:47:09.820 over time.

00:47:11.660 However,

00:47:12.380 do not make

00:47:13.040 any bets

00:47:13.640 based on

00:47:14.580 cartoonists

00:47:15.440 speculating

00:47:16.300 about

00:47:16.760 magical

00:47:17.220 things.

00:47:18.260 So don't

00:47:18.940 take any

00:47:19.360 investment

00:47:20.180 advice from

00:47:20.780 me.

00:47:25.440 How is

00:47:26.320 chloroquine

00:47:27.240 supposed to

00:47:27.880 work?

00:47:28.740 Well, it

00:47:29.240 keeps your

00:47:29.640 body from

00:47:30.400 going into

00:47:31.080 that trying

00:47:32.700 too hard to

00:47:33.400 kill the

00:47:33.720 virus mode.

00:47:34.540 It's your

00:47:34.840 body that

00:47:35.260 actually kills

00:47:35.820 you, not

00:47:36.320 the virus.

00:47:37.300 It's your

00:47:37.680 body trying

00:47:38.160 to fight

00:47:38.540 the virus

00:47:39.060 that makes

00:47:40.260 your lungs

00:47:40.680 stop working.

00:47:42.480 Do you

00:47:42.680 think Biden

00:47:43.220 is sound

00:47:43.820 of mind?

00:47:44.500 No, not

00:47:44.900 even close.

00:47:45.600 I don't

00:47:48.100 think there

00:47:48.520 are any

00:47:48.840 Democrats

00:47:49.400 at this

00:47:50.000 point, at

00:47:51.060 least the

00:47:51.920 professionals.

00:47:53.420 I don't

00:47:53.880 think that

00:47:54.300 they think

00:47:54.760 that Biden

00:47:55.260 is capable.

00:47:56.940 people.

00:48:00.320 Yeah, the

00:48:00.920 virus could

00:48:01.760 come back

00:48:02.200 year after

00:48:02.880 year, but

00:48:03.300 we would

00:48:03.560 have some

00:48:03.900 immunity by

00:48:04.540 then, so

00:48:05.000 it wouldn't

00:48:05.220 be as

00:48:05.700 bad.

00:48:09.340 No price

00:48:10.100 increase until

00:48:10.820 Saudi's

00:48:11.440 lower production.

00:48:13.780 All right, I

00:48:14.460 don't know what

00:48:14.780 the situation

00:48:15.320 there is.

00:48:16.040 it's 35%

00:48:20.420 down, dear.

00:48:22.740 So somebody

00:48:23.240 is saying

00:48:23.520 that oil

00:48:23.920 is down

00:48:24.520 or is it

00:48:25.360 up?

00:48:26.320 I don't

00:48:26.680 know.

00:48:28.540 It'll be

00:48:28.940 whatever is

00:48:29.940 the difference

00:48:30.440 tomorrow.

00:48:31.420 So tomorrow

00:48:31.860 it'll be

00:48:32.220 whatever is

00:48:32.660 different than

00:48:33.100 that.

00:48:34.880 Is Cuomo

00:48:35.760 going to

00:48:36.280 replace Biden?

00:48:37.100 He says

00:48:37.520 no, and I

00:48:38.880 don't know

00:48:39.140 how he would

00:48:39.760 run for

00:48:40.700 president.

00:48:41.460 I think he's

00:48:41.960 pretty busy.

00:48:42.480 Yes, I'm

00:48:45.060 sticking with

00:48:45.640 my 5,000

00:48:47.180 net, keyword

00:48:49.180 net, so

00:48:50.520 when all of

00:48:50.960 you come back

00:48:51.440 later to

00:48:51.940 tell me I'm

00:48:52.400 wrong, you'll

00:48:53.740 forget the

00:48:54.300 net part.

00:48:55.580 So let me

00:48:56.300 say in

00:48:56.640 advance, you

00:48:57.800 stupid idiot,

00:49:00.080 you forgot

00:49:00.540 the net part.

00:49:01.860 So you're not

00:49:02.460 criticizing me,

00:49:03.280 you're criticizing

00:49:03.880 your own

00:49:04.260 hallucination.

00:49:04.940 I like to

00:49:05.320 tell you what

00:49:07.280 I'm going to

00:49:07.580 say weeks in

00:49:09.160 advance.

00:49:10.700 So the

00:49:11.480 5,000 net

00:49:12.700 makes this

00:49:13.900 assumption.

00:49:14.580 Because we're

00:49:15.060 shut down, there

00:49:16.500 are a whole

00:49:16.740 bunch of

00:49:17.160 lives that

00:49:17.680 are not

00:49:18.020 being lost,

00:49:19.140 traffic accidents,

00:49:20.600 etc.

00:49:21.560 And you have

00:49:22.220 to net that

00:49:22.700 out, because

00:49:23.460 the decision

00:49:24.200 to close the

00:49:24.860 economy is

00:49:26.500 the decision

00:49:27.080 about how to

00:49:27.660 treat the

00:49:28.020 virus.

00:49:28.760 So it's all

00:49:29.280 part of the

00:49:29.700 same decision.

00:49:30.600 You can't

00:49:31.000 say this

00:49:31.940 many people

00:49:32.460 died in the

00:49:33.060 hospital, and

00:49:34.280 then ignore

00:49:34.780 the fact that

00:49:36.040 twice as many

00:49:36.720 people are

00:49:37.260 alive who

00:49:38.300 would have

00:49:38.640 been dead

00:49:39.200 under other

00:49:39.700 conditions.

00:49:40.180 So at

00:49:41.360 the moment

00:49:41.680 we're still

00:49:42.060 negative.

00:49:43.300 My understanding

00:49:44.200 is that the

00:49:44.880 number of

00:49:45.260 people who

00:49:45.640 have been

00:49:45.880 saved by

00:49:47.340 not having

00:49:47.880 a normal

00:49:48.280 economy is

00:49:49.620 still quite a

00:49:50.440 bit bigger

00:49:50.880 than the

00:49:51.360 total number

00:49:51.900 who are

00:49:52.140 dead.

00:49:52.680 Now I do

00:49:53.220 expect that

00:49:53.740 to reverse,

00:49:54.840 so it's not

00:49:55.960 going to stay

00:49:56.360 that way,

00:49:57.140 you know,

00:49:57.900 and the

00:49:59.500 economy itself

00:50:00.420 will cause

00:50:00.920 some problems

00:50:01.540 with poverty

00:50:02.940 too, and

00:50:03.400 that's hard

00:50:03.980 to net

00:50:06.160 that out of

00:50:06.680 there.

00:50:06.840 why am I

00:50:09.040 away from

00:50:09.540 Christina?

00:50:10.940 Somebody says.

00:50:12.040 Well, here's

00:50:12.760 the situation.

00:50:13.500 So she has

00:50:14.660 her own

00:50:14.960 house, and

00:50:16.040 she took

00:50:17.620 in a

00:50:18.000 family member.

00:50:20.180 You know,

00:50:20.440 it's emergency

00:50:20.900 time, so people

00:50:21.840 are doing what

00:50:22.280 they have to

00:50:22.580 do, and

00:50:23.580 one of her

00:50:24.080 family members

00:50:24.780 works at a

00:50:25.280 hospital.

00:50:27.120 So in

00:50:28.240 Christina's

00:50:29.200 house, you

00:50:30.160 know, it's

00:50:31.820 only young

00:50:32.800 people, and

00:50:34.640 one of

00:50:36.640 them has

00:50:37.640 a critical

00:50:38.200 job at

00:50:38.700 a hospital.

00:50:39.840 So I

00:50:40.740 can't be in

00:50:41.260 a house

00:50:41.700 where there's

00:50:42.400 somebody going

00:50:42.900 to a

00:50:43.220 hospital and

00:50:43.740 coming home.

00:50:44.900 So I'm

00:50:45.360 in my big

00:50:46.380 old house

00:50:46.800 alone with

00:50:47.520 no human

00:50:47.940 contact.

00:50:53.660 What about

00:50:54.500 the three

00:50:55.400 candidates

00:50:56.020 catching

00:50:56.760 coronavirus?

00:50:57.740 Well, it's

00:50:58.080 possible.

00:50:59.160 You know, I

00:50:59.840 said that a

00:51:00.580 question that

00:51:01.140 should be

00:51:01.520 asked of

00:51:02.940 the task

00:51:03.500 force is,

00:51:04.420 are they

00:51:04.680 already

00:51:05.200 taking

00:51:05.760 hydroxychloroquine?

00:51:07.560 And I'm

00:51:08.120 really surprised

00:51:08.980 that didn't

00:51:09.420 get asked

00:51:09.920 yesterday,

00:51:10.920 because it's

00:51:11.860 such an

00:51:14.120 obvious question,

00:51:15.900 isn't it?

00:51:16.900 Isn't it like

00:51:17.860 just a super

00:51:18.820 obvious question?

00:51:20.620 Mr. President,

00:51:21.820 Mr. Vice

00:51:22.320 President, are

00:51:23.060 you taking

00:51:23.780 hydroxychloroquine

00:51:26.400 for preventive

00:51:28.020 reasons?

00:51:29.360 Because wouldn't

00:51:30.180 you be surprised

00:51:31.080 if they're not?

00:51:31.840 I would be a

00:51:33.840 little worried

00:51:34.360 if they're

00:51:34.720 not, right?

00:51:36.120 Because the

00:51:36.760 task force

00:51:37.320 people just

00:51:37.900 don't have the

00:51:38.760 same flexibility

00:51:39.820 that we do.

00:51:40.800 I mean, even

00:51:41.520 when they're

00:51:41.840 standing on the

00:51:42.400 stage, they're

00:51:43.000 closer than six

00:51:43.740 feet away from

00:51:44.240 each other.

00:51:45.460 So I feel

00:51:46.900 like that's just

00:51:47.520 a given.

00:51:48.120 They should be

00:51:48.520 on it, and

00:51:49.020 they should

00:51:49.300 tell us.

00:51:50.120 I think that

00:51:50.680 we're owed

00:51:51.040 that.

00:51:51.760 I think we're

00:51:52.420 owed that

00:51:52.920 information.

00:51:56.980 Yeah, somebody

00:51:57.920 said, what

00:51:59.480 about obesity?

00:52:00.980 obesity.

00:52:01.900 So there's

00:52:02.600 some indication,

00:52:03.740 at least in

00:52:04.140 Italy, that

00:52:04.880 something like,

00:52:06.400 or maybe other

00:52:07.300 countries do,

00:52:08.240 something like

00:52:08.840 80 to 90% of

00:52:10.020 the people dying

00:52:10.820 are obese, or

00:52:13.980 at least they're

00:52:14.540 overweight quite a

00:52:15.880 bit.

00:52:16.920 So does that

00:52:19.060 then tell me

00:52:20.000 that I don't

00:52:20.540 have as much

00:52:21.440 of a risk if

00:52:22.500 I'm a normal

00:52:23.160 average weight?

00:52:25.100 I don't know.

00:52:26.040 It feels like it,

00:52:27.100 but I also have

00:52:27.660 a little asthma.

00:52:28.200 Now, having a

00:52:30.460 little asthma,

00:52:31.640 which is well

00:52:32.960 controlled, does

00:52:34.920 that put me at

00:52:35.560 the same risk as

00:52:36.900 somebody who has

00:52:37.520 COPD?

00:52:39.020 Because they lump

00:52:40.160 them together.

00:52:41.240 You know, if you

00:52:41.700 have lung disease,

00:52:43.620 it's like a big

00:52:44.180 category.

00:52:45.340 But if you have

00:52:46.060 COPD and you're

00:52:47.340 80, you're pretty

00:52:49.460 close to death

00:52:50.140 anyway.

00:52:51.020 So I can see how

00:52:52.020 the virus would

00:52:53.260 finish you off.

00:52:54.040 But if you're

00:52:55.120 in good shape,

00:52:56.540 normal weight,

00:52:57.960 everything's fine,

00:52:58.660 but you've got a

00:52:59.460 little bit of

00:53:00.220 asthma that's

00:53:00.980 well controlled,

00:53:03.440 am I in the

00:53:04.760 death group?

00:53:06.020 I'm going to

00:53:06.660 act like I am

00:53:07.580 because I don't

00:53:08.080 want to take the

00:53:08.700 chance, but I

00:53:10.040 kind of doubt

00:53:10.740 that my risk is

00:53:12.880 just like an

00:53:14.560 80-year-old with

00:53:15.360 COPD.

00:53:16.880 Anyway, let's

00:53:22.120 see.

00:53:22.460 help name the

00:53:24.500 Fortune 500 ETF.

00:53:26.600 Well, there are

00:53:27.000 ETFs and there

00:53:28.040 are SPYDERS.

00:53:29.300 There's a technical

00:53:30.440 difference, but they

00:53:31.300 act the same.

00:53:32.480 So the one I use

00:53:33.500 is SPY, S-P-Y.

00:53:36.340 So if you look

00:53:37.560 for that in your

00:53:38.560 online brokerage,

00:53:40.600 S-P-Y, it'll

00:53:43.040 pop up and it's

00:53:43.980 a basket of the

00:53:45.340 top 500 stocks

00:53:46.800 in the United

00:53:47.320 States.

00:53:48.220 I'm not

00:53:48.820 recommending it.

00:53:50.400 I only recommend

00:53:51.440 diversification.

00:53:53.700 That basket of

00:53:55.400 stocks does give

00:53:56.500 you diversification,

00:53:57.960 but I don't

00:53:58.760 recommend it.

00:54:00.420 Find your own

00:54:01.340 way to make it

00:54:02.760 work, but

00:54:03.180 diversifying is

00:54:03.880 good.

00:54:04.060 I tell you, Chris

00:54:09.420 Cuomo is just

00:54:11.460 getting more

00:54:11.940 interesting all the

00:54:12.820 time, unfortunately

00:54:13.760 not for happy

00:54:15.220 reasons, but I

00:54:17.180 don't know if you

00:54:17.540 saw he was

00:54:18.020 talking about

00:54:18.660 his fevers and

00:54:22.180 hallucinations, and

00:54:24.100 I don't know how

00:54:26.780 many of you are

00:54:27.340 doing this, but I

00:54:29.620 spend part of

00:54:30.680 every day going

00:54:32.700 through my memory

00:54:33.560 of how sick I

00:54:35.260 was in January

00:54:36.100 and trying to

00:54:37.560 convince myself

00:54:38.440 that I already

00:54:39.080 had it.

00:54:40.620 And that, you

00:54:40.940 know, because I

00:54:42.360 my January was

00:54:44.460 the sickest I've

00:54:45.640 been as an

00:54:46.560 adult.

00:54:47.940 Maybe.

00:54:48.980 I mean, you

00:54:49.640 witnessed some

00:54:50.780 of it.

00:54:51.080 I thought I

00:54:51.460 just had, I

00:54:52.660 thought I had

00:54:53.080 nasal problems

00:54:53.980 and fever and

00:54:55.200 night sweats and

00:54:57.460 everything, and I

00:54:57.920 thought it was the

00:54:58.360 meds, because I

00:54:59.640 was on meds for

00:55:00.340 some sinus

00:55:01.340 stuff, and maybe

00:55:03.580 it wasn't, because

00:55:06.500 I felt a little

00:55:07.320 sicker than I've

00:55:08.000 ever felt in my

00:55:08.600 life, but I

00:55:09.180 thought it was

00:55:09.560 just a bad

00:55:10.020 reaction to some

00:55:10.840 meds.

00:55:12.040 But maybe I

00:55:12.640 had it.

00:55:13.780 Who knew?

00:55:14.160 All right.

00:55:20.280 Asthma is part

00:55:21.220 of the COPD

00:55:22.040 Venn diagram, I

00:55:23.320 know, but I

00:55:24.560 just don't know

00:55:25.180 that COPD and

00:55:27.520 asthma are going

00:55:28.320 to respond the

00:55:29.040 same to this

00:55:29.740 virus.

00:55:30.800 It might.

00:55:31.680 Who knows?

00:55:32.480 Anyway, that's

00:55:33.320 all for now, and

00:55:34.680 I will talk to

00:55:35.240 you later tonight,

00:55:37.400 you know what

00:55:37.860 time, 10 p.m.

00:55:39.740 Eastern, 7 p.m.

00:55:41.560 Pacific, and I'll

00:55:42.800 talk to you then.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 02, 2020

Episode 887 Scott Adams： Grab Your Beverage and Get in Here!

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