Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 02, 2020


Episode 887 Scott Adams: Grab Your Beverage and Get in Here!


Episode Stats

Length

55 minutes

Words per Minute

146.58571

Word Count

8,168

Sentence Count

523

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

33


Summary

Scott Adams is back with an update on his presidential campaign, a look at the latest unemployment numbers, and a grade for the coronavirus task force working on the task force developing the masks and test kits to test for the new pandemic.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in here. It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, and you have come to the right place.
00:00:17.240 This is where all the simultaneous sipping happens. Yeah, it does.
00:00:22.700 And all you need is...what? What do you need? A cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.
00:00:37.180 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything, including the pandemic, better. It's called the simultaneous sip. Go.
00:00:47.360 Mmm. White blood cell count increasing even as we sip. It's amazing, really.
00:00:59.420 Okay. Well, first, an update on my presidency, my candidacy. As you know, I announced my run for president, but I'm running as an emergency backup spare.
00:01:13.940 Just in case, Joe Biden is the nominee and he's not capable of being president, but just in case something happens to President Trump.
00:01:22.240 Let's say he decides to retire before November. Don't you want an emergency backup? Well, I'll be your emergency backup.
00:01:29.420 Do not vote for me if President Trump is still in the election and still looking healthy. Vote for him instead if you're a Trump supporter.
00:01:42.260 But if anything happens and your only other choice is Joe Biden, I'm your emergency backup.
00:01:47.820 All right. The unemployment numbers around today, 6.6 million people filed for unemployment.
00:01:57.140 Now, according to my digital devices, the number of people who work in the United States is about 139 million, or at least recently, that was the number.
00:02:09.480 So 6.6 million are unemployed, or maybe additionally unemployed, but that's out of 139 people who are 139 million who are still working.
00:02:21.720 It's about 5%. So today it was about 5% out of work. I thought it was going to be a lot more. Didn't you?
00:02:30.120 Didn't you think the unemployment would be like 30% or something like that? I feel like most people can't go to work, but I guess people are getting paid, people are telecommuting, and maybe we'll see that double next month. I don't know.
00:02:46.180 But if it stayed that, if 6.6 million ended up being the worst of it, I don't think it will. It seems like it would have to go up in the next couple of weeks.
00:02:56.860 But if it were, we could get past that pretty easily. The problem is that it could get worse.
00:03:03.920 But I don't think you should be too afraid of today's number, because as a percentage, it's manageable, unless it doubles and triples in the coming weeks.
00:03:19.040 Here's my grade for the task force working on the coronavirus. I'm going to give it an F, an F grade.
00:03:28.540 Now, they may be doing good things that we can't see. I assume they are, right? I assume that they're doing great work behind the scenes, working hard.
00:03:38.120 I think it's all the right people working on it and everything. And I think that they're moving heaven and earth and doing what they can.
00:03:43.920 I give them a failing grade, because now it's been weeks, and I can't answer this question.
00:03:50.740 I watch every one of the press conferences, and I can't answer the question, when will we have enough masks?
00:04:01.480 Seriously? I can't answer that question yet? How about this one?
00:04:07.160 When will we have enough tests, test kits, both for testing people that may or may not have it and for testing the public in general?
00:04:15.920 When? Is that next week? Is it in four months? You don't know. I don't know. It's the most basic thing you'd have to know
00:04:26.620 in order to judge that your task force was competent, and we don't know. We don't even have a guess.
00:04:32.680 I don't know if it's a month or a year. I don't know if we could ever get there.
00:04:35.920 How about the results of the hydroxychloroquine?
00:04:39.760 Are you feeling like you're getting good information about how that's going? No. No, you're not.
00:04:46.300 It might be the most important thing that's going on, and your task force is intentionally not talking about it.
00:04:54.320 And when they talked about masks, they gave you the wrong information. Don't wear them.
00:04:58.520 So that was misinformation.
00:04:59.480 So of the two most important things, where are we on tests? Well, three, really.
00:05:06.620 Where are we on tests, masks, and knowledge about and supply of hydroxychloroquine?
00:05:14.100 The three things that I think are the most important, you have no visibility on after weeks.
00:05:20.360 Now, do you think that it's impossible to know those numbers?
00:05:25.580 Or even sort of directionally, you know, we think we can have it done in two weeks, but it might take a month?
00:05:33.520 That would tell you something.
00:05:36.000 But I hate to be grading harshly, but it's an emergency.
00:05:41.280 I think in normal times, I might be a little more flexible.
00:05:45.060 But you have the entire psychology of the country, which is the thing upon which your economy depends,
00:05:53.460 or the way we think about the economy, is going to be the thing that makes it recover or not.
00:06:01.380 And the way we're thinking about it is completely crippled by the fact that the three most important pieces of information,
00:06:09.580 in my opinion, which is, you know, the availability of supplies generally,
00:06:14.720 but I would say masks is going to be a more important hydroxychloroquine supply.
00:06:20.380 And, you know, and also I'd like to know how many people are being hospitalized
00:06:24.740 that are having the hydroxychloroquine early.
00:06:29.120 There was one doctor that was on Laura Engram's show last night
00:06:33.500 saying that it was a game changer, the hydroxychloroquine was,
00:06:37.240 and that none of the people he gave it to for five days,
00:06:42.080 in other words, the people who got it early enough in their symptoms,
00:06:45.740 none of them ended up being intubated and on ventilators.
00:06:49.440 None.
00:06:50.480 So, you know, it wasn't a controlled test,
00:06:55.740 but the doctor was saying that the odds of that happening,
00:06:58.880 given all the other groups and what percentage of them get on ventilators,
00:07:03.000 he said that the odds of the hydroxychloroquine not being the thing that made the difference
00:07:09.780 are just vanishingly small at this point.
00:07:12.540 Could be wrong, but that's what it looks like at this point.
00:07:16.200 All right, so I give the task force a failing grade for communication
00:07:20.720 because their communication has an impact on our morale and our psychology.
00:07:27.400 The psychology has an impact on the economy.
00:07:30.300 And if we break that, you can't put it back together again too easily, right?
00:07:36.000 Right now, the economy is not broken.
00:07:38.840 It's just sort of on a timeout, which is very different.
00:07:41.820 It's not broken.
00:07:42.960 It's just paused.
00:07:43.960 And if we don't get this information pretty soon,
00:07:51.660 I don't know how much longer the country can hold that together
00:07:55.140 because we're literally holding the economy together by will.
00:08:00.220 I mean, that's not an exaggeration.
00:08:03.240 The entire economy of the world is being held together by our minds.
00:08:10.260 That's not an exaggeration
00:08:11.680 because what we think of it is what it becomes and what it will be.
00:08:16.520 Because if you think it's good, you invest.
00:08:19.000 If you think it's going to be bad, you fire your staff and you don't invest.
00:08:22.600 It's a completely different direction.
00:08:25.240 So task force, please, even if you have to lie to us
00:08:30.520 and then correct it as you get better information,
00:08:33.560 when are we going to have enough masks?
00:08:35.540 When are we going to have this hydroxychloroquine
00:08:38.220 that we could take early on, enough of it?
00:08:42.340 You know, and when are we going to have enough test kits?
00:08:46.960 You know, here's what I don't want to say.
00:08:49.120 I'm trying not to swear because I'm getting really mad.
00:08:52.900 So I'll try to take it down a little level.
00:08:56.180 Maybe I'll go a whole day without swearing.
00:08:58.660 Who knows?
00:08:59.040 It's deeply irresponsible to watch these experts up there
00:09:07.520 and our president simply spouting raw numbers.
00:09:12.400 Here's what I...
00:09:13.420 I'm just going to swear, okay?
00:09:15.260 I'm just going to warn you, I can't get past this next section
00:09:20.020 without using a curse word.
00:09:23.180 So send the kids away, turn down the volume, whatever you want.
00:09:29.260 Here's what I don't want to see today.
00:09:33.060 So I assume there'll be another coronavirus task force.
00:09:36.300 I don't fucking want to see them spouting raw numbers again.
00:09:40.740 Oh, we got 4,000 ventilators, and I sent 20,000 over here,
00:09:44.480 and 6,000 gloves, and I sent 4,000 masks.
00:09:47.840 Fuck you.
00:09:49.340 Fuck you.
00:09:51.100 Don't give us raw numbers.
00:09:53.100 Tell us how many you need.
00:09:55.340 How close are you to that?
00:09:57.740 How many are in the pipeline?
00:09:59.920 That'd be good.
00:10:00.820 Don't give us fucking raw numbers like we're fucking idiots.
00:10:04.860 All right?
00:10:05.520 You have been wrong, you, the professionals,
00:10:09.720 both the politicians and the experts,
00:10:12.340 you've been fucking wrong about everything.
00:10:14.540 You've been wrong about the fucking mask.
00:10:16.420 You've been wrong about the hydrochloroquine.
00:10:18.020 You've been wrong about the China numbers.
00:10:19.440 You've been probably wrong about the models.
00:10:21.540 You've been fucking wrong about everything.
00:10:24.480 And you stand in front of us,
00:10:26.040 and you fucking say these raw numbers like that
00:10:29.100 is supposed to make us fucking happy.
00:10:31.820 You're blowing this fucking smoke up our asses
00:10:34.960 in the middle of a goddamn emergency
00:10:37.320 while the economy is melting down,
00:10:39.580 and you're giving us these fucking raw numbers
00:10:41.760 like we're fucking idiots.
00:10:43.740 Like we're idiots.
00:10:45.120 Oh, it's 4,000.
00:10:47.040 Oh, I guess that's good.
00:10:48.380 Oh, I'll go back to work, male.
00:10:50.400 Got 4,000 dental ears.
00:10:52.340 Is that a lot?
00:10:54.120 Is that too much?
00:10:55.840 Give us a fucking piece of information,
00:10:58.600 you goddamn incompetent motherfuckers.
00:11:02.240 I'm not going to go one more day being okay with this.
00:11:05.740 It's a fucking emergency.
00:11:07.860 Give us some fucking useful numbers for once.
00:11:11.420 How about not fucking lying to us and we know it?
00:11:14.760 How about that?
00:11:16.420 If you don't know the numbers,
00:11:18.240 just say you're incompetent.
00:11:20.540 Just tell us.
00:11:22.020 And maybe we can do something about it.
00:11:24.460 But please, stop fucking lying to us
00:11:27.960 about the numbers.
00:11:31.040 The raw numbers don't help us at all.
00:11:36.380 Not even a little bit.
00:11:37.380 If you can't put them in context,
00:11:40.360 don't fucking even talk.
00:11:43.260 Just let somebody else talk.
00:11:45.800 This is for you, Mr. President.
00:11:47.880 I love you, Mr. President.
00:11:49.540 But we can't have another day
00:11:51.040 of these fucking raw numbers out of context.
00:11:54.480 It was way too long.
00:11:56.820 I was a little bit patient for a while.
00:11:58.780 But now, I'm fucking mad.
00:12:02.500 All right?
00:12:03.280 You've got to fix this today.
00:12:05.340 You've got a few hours.
00:12:06.980 Make up some fucking numbers
00:12:08.660 if you don't have good numbers.
00:12:09.820 Just make up some fucking numbers.
00:12:11.900 Jesus fucking Christ.
00:12:16.000 Whew.
00:12:19.000 All right.
00:12:23.540 Here's something interesting or not.
00:12:26.140 I got a message on LinkedIn.
00:12:27.640 A lot of people are sending me
00:12:29.240 useful information
00:12:31.680 that I can send around to somebody.
00:12:35.500 And apparently, there's a company,
00:12:36.940 I won't name the company,
00:12:37.900 that can make 70 million test kits
00:12:40.840 for the coronavirus in two weeks.
00:12:43.900 So they're capable of making
00:12:45.480 70 million tests in two weeks,
00:12:48.900 but they're not doing it
00:12:49.980 because they need a big check.
00:12:52.780 So right now, they don't know how to
00:12:54.640 sell it to individual hospitals and stuff.
00:12:57.300 They don't really,
00:12:57.940 they're not set up for that.
00:12:59.520 They're more set up for, you know,
00:13:01.480 selling big bunches.
00:13:04.140 So I've passed that along to, you know,
00:13:06.660 my most helpful contacts in the government.
00:13:11.340 And, you know, maybe this is a real company
00:13:14.360 and maybe they can really do that.
00:13:16.220 Maybe it makes a difference.
00:13:17.740 But I was kind of shocked
00:13:19.140 that at this point in the process,
00:13:21.220 there would be a company
00:13:22.040 that makes test kits.
00:13:24.540 I think they need to be validated
00:13:26.420 and approved or something too.
00:13:28.360 But there would be a company
00:13:29.640 that could make this many test kits.
00:13:31.440 It's in another country.
00:13:32.420 It's not an American kind of company.
00:13:34.540 And we haven't already
00:13:36.000 climbed down their pants
00:13:38.500 to figure out what they can do
00:13:39.700 and how quickly they can do it.
00:13:41.260 So I'm a little skeptical
00:13:42.600 that as of today,
00:13:45.520 there would be a company
00:13:46.220 that can make 70 million test kits
00:13:48.560 and yet hasn't got a productive contact
00:13:51.940 in some government
00:13:52.740 to send them a check.
00:13:54.920 I'm a little skeptical,
00:13:56.520 but I passed it along anyway.
00:14:00.380 If you're following along on Zoom,
00:14:03.360 the application that lets you
00:14:05.360 make a video call with your teammates,
00:14:08.440 you probably know that there's
00:14:09.440 a little bit of a problem there
00:14:11.000 that's becoming more of a problem,
00:14:13.360 I think, as time goes by,
00:14:14.520 that a lot of their engineers
00:14:16.620 live and work in China
00:14:18.260 and some of the traffic
00:14:20.300 goes through servers in China.
00:14:23.160 So if you're doing
00:14:23.860 a top-secret business meeting
00:14:27.060 about your technology
00:14:28.260 and you're using Zoom,
00:14:29.720 which is the most popular software
00:14:32.240 for doing this,
00:14:33.620 probably, I don't know,
00:14:34.880 eight out of ten businesses
00:14:36.580 are using it routinely,
00:14:38.860 especially now,
00:14:40.880 your secrets are actually
00:14:42.380 going through a server in China.
00:14:43.720 when you know that China
00:14:45.380 is stealing our secrets,
00:14:46.720 it's not like you worry
00:14:49.120 that they might.
00:14:51.640 It's way past worrying
00:14:55.020 that they might steal your secret IP.
00:14:58.040 They are.
00:14:59.500 It's just the most confirmed,
00:15:01.300 documented thing in the world.
00:15:03.480 So Zoom has a problem.
00:15:05.560 Now,
00:15:06.940 I will just tell you
00:15:10.900 that there is a Zoom alternative,
00:15:14.060 which is,
00:15:15.720 which can be packaged up.
00:15:18.420 Right now,
00:15:18.960 it wouldn't work for everybody
00:15:20.320 because you'd have to scale it up.
00:15:22.320 But if there's anybody out there
00:15:23.720 who would like to invest
00:15:25.340 in a Zoom alternative
00:15:27.880 that does not go through China,
00:15:31.700 contact me.
00:15:33.600 So I'm looking for somebody
00:15:34.920 who's a billionaire
00:15:35.480 who can write a big check.
00:15:37.580 I'm not going to be doing
00:15:38.720 like fundraising or anything.
00:15:40.420 But if you're a billionaire
00:15:41.240 or you're in the government
00:15:43.720 and you can write a check
00:15:44.880 for a million and a half
00:15:46.260 to, you know,
00:15:47.740 just develop it
00:15:48.500 to the point of feasibility,
00:15:50.200 it's mostly already written.
00:15:51.920 So the actual code
00:15:55.200 is mostly done
00:15:56.400 and I've actually used it
00:15:57.960 and you can make a call
00:15:58.960 and it looks just like Zoom.
00:16:00.640 But it would need to be packaged up
00:16:02.580 in a company form
00:16:03.580 and you'd have to have
00:16:05.540 enough servers online
00:16:06.580 to handle the volume,
00:16:09.120 et cetera.
00:16:10.160 So it would be a big job
00:16:11.400 to productize it.
00:16:13.100 But if anybody's interested in that,
00:16:15.980 just tweet at me
00:16:17.200 and I'll hook you up.
00:16:19.380 And I am connected
00:16:20.340 to that,
00:16:20.960 just full disclosure,
00:16:23.640 I am connected
00:16:24.620 to that effort.
00:16:25.960 So just so you heard that.
00:16:27.980 Okay.
00:16:28.120 Let's see.
00:16:33.120 I have a question.
00:16:34.940 Does China's death tolls,
00:16:36.840 which we know are all bogus,
00:16:39.200 but I wonder if it includes
00:16:40.540 the political prisoners
00:16:42.080 that they carve up for parts.
00:16:45.600 Now, if you didn't know that,
00:16:46.840 apparently it's well documented
00:16:48.820 to the point of no doubt about it.
00:16:51.660 So China is using political prisoners
00:16:53.900 for parts.
00:16:56.300 They're actually keeping them alive.
00:16:59.180 I assume that they have anesthesia.
00:17:01.260 But in order to transfer organs
00:17:03.980 from someone to someone else,
00:17:05.800 you need the donor to be alive.
00:17:08.720 China can deliver
00:17:10.240 a heart and lung transplant
00:17:12.060 on demand
00:17:13.120 on the hour that you want it.
00:17:16.880 Now, you don't have to be
00:17:18.480 much of a transplant expert
00:17:19.920 to know
00:17:20.460 that if you can deliver
00:17:22.680 a specific organ
00:17:23.880 on a specific date,
00:17:26.300 it's because you killed somebody.
00:17:29.280 There's no mathematically,
00:17:31.520 statistically,
00:17:32.680 there's just no way
00:17:33.740 that somebody would coincidentally
00:17:35.980 be a donor
00:17:37.300 within driving distance
00:17:39.360 and within an hour
00:17:41.080 of when you needed the surgery.
00:17:42.240 So the experts
00:17:44.140 know for sure
00:17:45.580 and they know
00:17:47.560 that the operations
00:17:48.200 are happening
00:17:48.780 because Westerners
00:17:49.900 sometimes go over there
00:17:50.840 and get the operation
00:17:51.900 because they can't get
00:17:53.400 a heart and lung
00:17:54.200 on demand anywhere else
00:17:55.400 because nobody else
00:17:56.600 is killing people
00:17:57.360 for hearts and lungs.
00:17:59.220 So I'm wondering
00:18:00.680 if it's true
00:18:02.100 the high numbers,
00:18:03.540 I saw some numbers
00:18:04.260 like over 300,000 people
00:18:06.560 might have died
00:18:07.280 from the coronavirus
00:18:08.200 in China.
00:18:10.900 Now imagine if 300,000 died,
00:18:13.640 most of them
00:18:14.740 are probably elderly
00:18:15.620 and would not qualify
00:18:17.020 for any kind of a transplant,
00:18:18.760 but how many people
00:18:19.740 who were, let's say,
00:18:21.400 Chinese Party officials
00:18:23.500 who could be saved
00:18:27.260 with, let's say,
00:18:28.040 a lung transplant
00:18:28.940 because, you know,
00:18:29.820 lungs go bad
00:18:30.700 with the coronavirus.
00:18:32.280 How many,
00:18:32.860 how many Communist Party
00:18:35.660 members in China,
00:18:37.300 you know,
00:18:37.580 people who are rich
00:18:38.420 or connected,
00:18:39.380 how many of them
00:18:40.360 are alive
00:18:41.020 because they killed
00:18:43.200 a political prisoner
00:18:44.280 and took that person's
00:18:46.400 heart and lungs
00:18:47.400 and put it into
00:18:48.460 the Chinese official?
00:18:51.700 Probably more than one.
00:18:53.500 Yeah, I don't know.
00:18:54.840 Could be a few.
00:18:56.620 Just put that out there.
00:19:00.440 All right.
00:19:02.420 I suggested,
00:19:03.620 I put this idea out there.
00:19:04.760 I was just seeing
00:19:05.580 what kind of appetite
00:19:06.880 there was for this.
00:19:08.440 But I want to tell you
00:19:09.220 how clever this is.
00:19:10.300 So on the surface,
00:19:11.800 it doesn't sound clever,
00:19:13.560 but then I'll tell you
00:19:14.220 what the clever thing is.
00:19:15.360 All right.
00:19:16.420 So I tweeted,
00:19:17.680 let's start expelling
00:19:18.980 the kids of Chinese elites
00:19:20.760 who are going to college
00:19:22.240 in the United States.
00:19:23.500 in alphabetical order,
00:19:25.400 one for every death
00:19:26.420 from fentanyl
00:19:27.460 or coronavirus.
00:19:29.120 Now, of course,
00:19:29.520 it wouldn't take long
00:19:30.380 before they were all gone,
00:19:31.820 but there are quite a few
00:19:32.920 children of the rich people,
00:19:36.340 the elites,
00:19:36.960 the connected people
00:19:37.760 in China
00:19:38.260 who, as a status symbol,
00:19:41.880 go to college
00:19:42.820 in the United States.
00:19:44.080 Because if you're
00:19:44.800 a Chinese official,
00:19:46.600 you'd like to say
00:19:47.360 that your kid
00:19:48.640 went to Harvard
00:19:49.300 or Stanford
00:19:50.120 or some good
00:19:51.300 American college.
00:19:53.320 And of course,
00:19:53.860 they take this training
00:19:55.200 back to China
00:19:56.000 where China,
00:19:57.860 you know,
00:19:58.660 in most cases,
00:20:00.100 and China,
00:20:01.220 of course,
00:20:02.620 tries to destroy
00:20:03.380 the United States
00:20:04.220 with this newly learned
00:20:05.440 knowledge.
00:20:06.940 And so,
00:20:07.720 now,
00:20:08.260 the colleges,
00:20:09.420 of course,
00:20:09.900 the universities,
00:20:10.460 they make a lot of money
00:20:11.540 from the foreign students
00:20:12.620 because they can charge them
00:20:13.660 the full price.
00:20:15.140 You know,
00:20:15.300 the foreign students
00:20:16.300 are not necessarily
00:20:17.060 getting scholarships.
00:20:20.120 So,
00:20:20.800 it's profitable
00:20:21.600 for the colleges.
00:20:22.500 That's why they do it a lot.
00:20:24.160 But,
00:20:24.820 here's the strength
00:20:27.420 of the idea.
00:20:28.820 If you just said today,
00:20:31.760 you know,
00:20:32.100 just today,
00:20:33.020 all kids
00:20:34.180 of Chinese
00:20:35.380 elites
00:20:37.060 go home today.
00:20:39.680 Now,
00:20:40.240 that would make
00:20:40.620 a big statement,
00:20:41.780 but it wouldn't be
00:20:42.880 nearly as good
00:20:44.160 as my idea
00:20:46.300 of doing it
00:20:46.920 in alphabetical order.
00:20:49.160 Now,
00:20:49.700 I don't know
00:20:50.160 if you ever saw
00:20:50.700 Schindler's List,
00:20:51.940 but this is a
00:20:54.500 persuasion
00:20:55.760 technique
00:20:56.820 I learned
00:20:57.440 from a scene
00:20:58.120 in Schindler's List,
00:20:59.560 meaning that,
00:21:01.740 you know,
00:21:02.320 without going
00:21:03.160 into details,
00:21:04.060 a bad guy
00:21:04.600 was executing
00:21:05.620 prisoners
00:21:06.960 somewhat randomly,
00:21:09.920 and the prisoners
00:21:10.940 had to wait
00:21:11.700 and wonder
00:21:12.220 if they were next.
00:21:14.160 Now,
00:21:14.580 as bad
00:21:15.000 as it is
00:21:15.460 to be executed,
00:21:17.100 that happens
00:21:18.060 kind of quickly,
00:21:19.160 right?
00:21:19.500 You get shot
00:21:20.060 in the head,
00:21:20.420 you're kind of
00:21:20.800 dead quickly,
00:21:21.380 as bad as that is.
00:21:23.180 But not knowing
00:21:24.340 if in the next
00:21:25.840 five minutes
00:21:26.500 you're going to be
00:21:27.020 shot in the head
00:21:27.660 because you're
00:21:29.060 watching other people
00:21:29.780 get shot in the head
00:21:30.480 right in front of you
00:21:31.300 has got to be
00:21:32.880 far more
00:21:34.300 psychologically
00:21:34.980 devastating,
00:21:36.160 right?
00:21:36.620 stands to reason.
00:21:39.540 So here's the idea.
00:21:40.480 Instead of just saying
00:21:41.300 all Chinese children
00:21:42.880 of elites
00:21:44.180 have to leave
00:21:45.060 their colleges
00:21:45.520 and go home,
00:21:47.340 that would be like
00:21:48.080 pulling the band-aid
00:21:48.920 off all at once.
00:21:49.840 It would be bad.
00:21:50.980 It would get their
00:21:51.560 attention.
00:21:52.000 They wouldn't like it
00:21:52.600 at all.
00:21:53.300 But it would also be
00:21:54.260 over really quickly.
00:21:56.320 So it's not nearly
00:21:57.280 as good.
00:21:58.740 What you want to do
00:21:59.580 is say,
00:21:59.960 it's nothing personal.
00:22:01.400 We're not even going
00:22:02.120 to decide
00:22:03.160 who goes first.
00:22:04.040 We'll just do it
00:22:04.560 in alphabetical order.
00:22:06.380 And then on day one
00:22:07.240 you say,
00:22:07.680 looks like we've got
00:22:08.580 a week of fentanyl
00:22:09.740 overdoses
00:22:10.340 and this many
00:22:12.420 corona deaths.
00:22:13.760 Okay,
00:22:14.080 that's 175.
00:22:16.820 So we'll just
00:22:17.540 go down the alphabet
00:22:18.720 until you get
00:22:19.480 175 kids
00:22:20.700 and you just
00:22:21.060 send them home.
00:22:22.600 Just send them home.
00:22:23.700 You've got to be
00:22:24.000 gone by tomorrow.
00:22:25.780 And then
00:22:26.200 the next day
00:22:28.260 the elites
00:22:29.700 in China
00:22:30.400 say,
00:22:30.900 what the heck
00:22:31.680 just happened?
00:22:32.960 Wait a minute,
00:22:33.540 what's our last name?
00:22:35.220 My last name
00:22:35.920 starts with F?
00:22:37.760 Oh,
00:22:39.040 maybe we should
00:22:40.160 do something
00:22:40.560 about this.
00:22:42.060 So if it doesn't
00:22:43.320 hurt the elites,
00:22:44.340 it doesn't count
00:22:45.120 because they're
00:22:45.580 the only ones
00:22:46.060 who get a vote.
00:22:47.560 So I would say
00:22:48.380 let's just
00:22:49.580 send them home
00:22:50.400 in alphabetical order.
00:22:52.420 You don't have
00:22:52.900 to do it right away.
00:22:54.340 Just start
00:22:55.040 the process
00:22:56.140 in alphabetical order
00:22:57.200 and make it
00:22:58.980 just mechanical.
00:23:00.680 No human
00:23:01.700 decision involved.
00:23:03.200 We'll just
00:23:03.480 get a statistic,
00:23:05.120 go down
00:23:05.580 the alphabetical
00:23:06.360 list,
00:23:07.380 send them an email,
00:23:09.200 say,
00:23:09.640 be gone by Tuesday.
00:23:11.320 And you don't
00:23:11.700 even have to
00:23:12.080 negotiate about it.
00:23:13.480 You don't even
00:23:13.980 have to ask
00:23:14.740 China for anything
00:23:15.760 in return.
00:23:17.520 There's no
00:23:18.100 negotiating here.
00:23:19.560 You're just saying,
00:23:21.100 it's just the way
00:23:22.020 we want to run
00:23:22.560 things.
00:23:22.900 This is our system.
00:23:25.100 Don't even
00:23:25.700 argue it.
00:23:26.600 All right.
00:23:29.220 Here's a new
00:23:29.920 rule.
00:23:31.540 I'm stealing
00:23:32.240 this from
00:23:32.840 Bill Maher.
00:23:33.760 He always
00:23:34.000 says,
00:23:34.300 new rules,
00:23:35.200 which is a
00:23:35.680 good structure
00:23:36.260 for jokes,
00:23:37.220 by the way.
00:23:38.820 If you're
00:23:39.460 criticizing the
00:23:40.220 president's timing
00:23:41.280 of decisions
00:23:42.060 for this
00:23:42.700 coronavirus stuff,
00:23:44.300 you have to
00:23:45.080 produce a witness
00:23:45.760 who was in
00:23:46.320 the room
00:23:46.860 and watched
00:23:49.080 the president
00:23:50.160 ignore advice
00:23:51.280 from experts
00:23:52.080 at the
00:23:52.620 time.
00:23:54.280 Because
00:23:54.780 otherwise,
00:23:55.880 what exactly
00:23:57.020 are you
00:23:57.380 criticizing?
00:23:59.060 Now,
00:23:59.680 if the
00:24:00.060 president
00:24:00.440 was surrounded
00:24:01.660 by experts
00:24:02.460 who said,
00:24:03.000 you must do
00:24:03.640 X,
00:24:04.580 and the
00:24:05.180 president
00:24:05.560 ignored all
00:24:06.220 the experts
00:24:06.720 and said,
00:24:07.120 eh,
00:24:07.480 I think I'll
00:24:07.960 do Y.
00:24:09.360 Well,
00:24:09.580 that would
00:24:10.220 be a
00:24:10.760 legitimate
00:24:11.120 story.
00:24:12.660 That's
00:24:13.160 something I'd
00:24:13.660 want to
00:24:13.920 know.
00:24:14.940 Right?
00:24:16.180 But,
00:24:16.940 if all we
00:24:18.420 know is it
00:24:19.180 would have
00:24:19.540 been better
00:24:20.200 to do
00:24:21.300 something
00:24:21.660 earlier
00:24:22.080 or different,
00:24:23.700 does that
00:24:24.280 tell you
00:24:24.680 anything?
00:24:25.680 Because,
00:24:26.220 again,
00:24:26.560 everything good
00:24:27.280 should have
00:24:27.700 been done
00:24:28.020 earlier.
00:24:28.440 There's no
00:24:28.740 exception to
00:24:29.320 that.
00:24:29.960 So,
00:24:30.240 simply saying
00:24:31.120 it should
00:24:31.380 have been
00:24:31.580 done earlier
00:24:32.340 has no
00:24:34.140 meaning at
00:24:34.600 all,
00:24:34.920 except TV
00:24:36.440 idiots will
00:24:37.240 talk about
00:24:37.800 it forever.
00:24:39.040 But,
00:24:39.660 unless you
00:24:40.120 have a
00:24:40.400 witness that
00:24:41.500 actually watched
00:24:42.380 him listen
00:24:43.120 to experts
00:24:43.840 and decide
00:24:44.420 not to
00:24:44.840 follow their
00:24:45.260 advice,
00:24:46.880 you don't
00:24:47.260 really have
00:24:47.680 anything.
00:24:49.340 Because,
00:24:49.820 without that,
00:24:50.600 there's no
00:24:51.040 context.
00:24:51.760 It wouldn't
00:24:52.160 mean anything.
00:24:53.580 The leaders
00:24:54.280 of other
00:24:54.660 countries didn't
00:24:55.420 seem to do
00:24:55.920 much better.
00:24:57.120 Now,
00:24:57.320 I know some
00:24:58.260 people are
00:24:58.580 going to
00:24:58.680 say,
00:24:58.920 but,
00:24:59.600 Scott,
00:25:00.720 why were
00:25:01.540 we not
00:25:02.000 ready with
00:25:02.540 all the
00:25:02.860 ventilators
00:25:03.520 and the
00:25:04.420 test kits?
00:25:07.600 The answer
00:25:08.320 is,
00:25:09.100 nobody was.
00:25:10.320 Nobody was
00:25:10.920 ready with
00:25:11.500 that.
00:25:11.940 I mean,
00:25:12.140 South Korea
00:25:12.620 is a smaller
00:25:13.220 place.
00:25:13.820 Maybe they're
00:25:14.200 a little more
00:25:14.600 efficient.
00:25:15.560 Maybe they
00:25:15.900 got there
00:25:16.360 quicker.
00:25:17.380 But,
00:25:17.800 nobody was
00:25:18.300 ready.
00:25:18.700 of all
00:25:20.460 the nations
00:25:21.020 in the
00:25:21.320 world,
00:25:21.640 nobody was
00:25:22.120 ready.
00:25:23.340 And how
00:25:24.080 many
00:25:24.280 ventilators
00:25:24.800 did we
00:25:25.140 think we
00:25:25.520 needed?
00:25:26.480 How many
00:25:27.060 did we
00:25:27.360 think we
00:25:27.700 have?
00:25:28.020 We still
00:25:28.400 don't know.
00:25:29.440 We don't
00:25:29.780 know how
00:25:30.040 many we
00:25:30.320 had,
00:25:30.700 how many
00:25:30.980 we needed.
00:25:31.840 Do you
00:25:32.080 think that
00:25:32.420 the President
00:25:32.880 of the United
00:25:33.340 States was
00:25:34.940 ever aware
00:25:35.760 that we had
00:25:37.020 a ventilator
00:25:37.660 shortage?
00:25:39.260 Was he
00:25:39.800 even ever
00:25:40.160 aware of
00:25:40.660 that?
00:25:41.440 Do you
00:25:41.660 think the
00:25:41.960 President,
00:25:42.860 and you can
00:25:43.340 say this for
00:25:43.880 every leader
00:25:44.580 of every
00:25:44.940 other country,
00:25:45.380 Do you
00:25:46.000 think the
00:25:46.300 President of
00:25:46.820 the United
00:25:47.080 States was
00:25:47.560 aware that
00:25:48.900 we didn't
00:25:49.280 have the
00:25:49.720 right kind
00:25:50.240 of test
00:25:50.640 kits?
00:25:52.180 No.
00:25:53.460 I doubt
00:25:54.260 it.
00:25:55.200 That's kind
00:25:55.800 of down in
00:25:56.300 the details.
00:26:00.080 Anyway,
00:26:00.720 that's enough
00:26:01.080 about that.
00:26:04.840 I'm
00:26:05.360 watching the
00:26:05.860 most interesting
00:26:06.820 intellectual,
00:26:08.600 let's say,
00:26:10.720 difference of
00:26:11.320 opinion.
00:26:11.780 opinion.
00:26:12.900 What's
00:26:13.240 interesting
00:26:13.640 about it
00:26:14.200 is that
00:26:14.620 the two
00:26:15.100 people who
00:26:15.600 are on
00:26:15.880 opposite
00:26:16.220 sides of
00:26:16.860 this are
00:26:18.340 so smart.
00:26:20.180 Normally,
00:26:20.840 you see a
00:26:22.220 smart person
00:26:22.800 arguing with
00:26:23.340 a dumb
00:26:23.640 person.
00:26:24.660 Of course,
00:26:25.160 you always
00:26:25.480 agree with
00:26:25.920 the one
00:26:26.140 you think
00:26:26.460 is the
00:26:26.780 smart one.
00:26:27.920 But it's
00:26:28.360 unusual to
00:26:29.080 see somebody
00:26:29.580 who are
00:26:29.800 equally smart
00:26:30.760 at the
00:26:32.100 highest level
00:26:32.820 smart,
00:26:34.120 and also
00:26:35.080 deeply
00:26:35.620 disagreeing
00:26:36.320 while looking
00:26:36.780 at exactly
00:26:37.360 the same
00:26:37.780 facts.
00:26:39.140 To me,
00:26:39.660 that's just
00:26:40.460 so fascinating.
00:26:42.400 So here's
00:26:42.760 what's
00:26:42.940 happening.
00:26:43.680 So you
00:26:45.160 may be
00:26:45.520 familiar with
00:26:46.120 these names
00:26:46.600 from Twitter
00:26:47.180 or otherwise.
00:26:48.460 But Balaji
00:26:49.340 Srinivasan
00:26:50.280 has been
00:26:50.800 tweeting about
00:26:51.580 the dangers
00:26:52.140 of the
00:26:52.440 coronavirus
00:26:52.920 extensively
00:26:54.580 and in
00:26:55.540 detail,
00:26:56.260 tons of
00:26:57.020 good sources
00:26:57.620 and great
00:26:58.940 thinking about
00:26:59.640 it,
00:26:59.840 etc.
00:27:00.280 And he
00:27:00.740 would be
00:27:01.060 on the
00:27:01.520 side saying
00:27:03.060 it's as
00:27:04.600 big a
00:27:04.920 problem as
00:27:05.420 the experts
00:27:05.780 say it
00:27:06.140 is,
00:27:06.400 maybe even
00:27:06.820 bigger.
00:27:07.240 It's going
00:27:07.580 to be big.
00:27:08.540 It's a
00:27:08.960 big,
00:27:09.320 big deal.
00:27:09.800 And then
00:27:11.940 it's special.
00:27:13.660 Now,
00:27:14.180 to Balaji's
00:27:15.480 point,
00:27:16.500 you could
00:27:16.840 look at
00:27:17.200 China.
00:27:18.520 They had
00:27:19.120 more deaths
00:27:19.620 than they
00:27:19.900 say,
00:27:20.200 probably.
00:27:21.120 You could
00:27:21.420 look at
00:27:21.660 Italy and
00:27:22.120 Iran,
00:27:22.460 and you
00:27:22.620 could say,
00:27:22.880 oh,
00:27:23.340 well,
00:27:23.680 already we're
00:27:24.260 seeing that
00:27:24.700 there are
00:27:25.000 major
00:27:25.260 problems.
00:27:26.420 And then
00:27:26.740 we also
00:27:27.060 look at
00:27:27.440 what the
00:27:27.720 ER doctors
00:27:28.440 are saying.
00:27:29.560 And I
00:27:30.040 don't believe
00:27:30.540 you'll see
00:27:30.900 any ER
00:27:31.620 doctors who
00:27:32.400 say,
00:27:32.700 you know,
00:27:33.360 I'm working
00:27:34.080 ER,
00:27:34.860 and it's
00:27:35.260 basically just
00:27:36.040 the flu.
00:27:37.120 Have you
00:27:37.460 heard anybody
00:27:38.060 say that?
00:27:39.280 Have you
00:27:39.740 heard any
00:27:40.120 doctor who's
00:27:40.760 actually working
00:27:41.520 at the
00:27:42.140 front lines,
00:27:43.020 who agrees
00:27:44.220 with the
00:27:44.620 notion,
00:27:45.020 you know,
00:27:45.300 this is sort
00:27:46.540 of just like
00:27:47.020 more flu?
00:27:48.500 It's sort
00:27:48.940 of more like
00:27:49.500 that.
00:27:49.720 No,
00:27:49.940 not even
00:27:50.260 close.
00:27:50.740 Every
00:27:52.300 doctor who's
00:27:53.020 working on
00:27:53.540 it says
00:27:54.140 as clearly
00:27:54.900 as possible,
00:27:56.380 this is
00:27:57.400 not the
00:27:57.780 flu.
00:27:59.140 One of the
00:27:59.780 doctors said
00:28:00.340 that you
00:28:00.980 can even
00:28:01.600 tell the
00:28:02.120 people who
00:28:02.480 have it
00:28:02.820 by their
00:28:03.580 eyes get
00:28:04.100 red in
00:28:04.540 a very
00:28:04.860 specific
00:28:06.320 way,
00:28:06.900 and they
00:28:07.020 have a
00:28:07.200 very specific
00:28:07.960 cough and
00:28:09.820 bronchial
00:28:10.640 situation.
00:28:12.360 But anyway,
00:28:13.460 so Balaji
00:28:14.240 has on his
00:28:14.800 side that
00:28:15.960 the deaths
00:28:16.980 have gone
00:28:17.400 from 100
00:28:18.040 deaths a
00:28:18.460 day to
00:28:18.840 1,000 in
00:28:19.720 I don't
00:28:20.300 know,
00:28:20.460 a week,
00:28:20.740 or something
00:28:21.200 as you
00:28:23.140 would expect
00:28:23.600 if it's
00:28:23.960 really bad.
00:28:25.120 You've got
00:28:25.500 other countries
00:28:26.120 that are
00:28:26.440 already suffering
00:28:27.120 it sooner
00:28:28.320 that things
00:28:29.300 are really
00:28:29.600 bad there,
00:28:30.220 that sides
00:28:31.160 with him,
00:28:31.960 and then
00:28:32.380 the ER
00:28:32.700 doctors.
00:28:33.820 So he's
00:28:34.240 got quite
00:28:34.980 a bit of
00:28:36.300 scientific
00:28:37.560 and anecdotal
00:28:38.800 information
00:28:39.500 that is
00:28:40.400 compatible with
00:28:41.180 his view
00:28:41.600 that this
00:28:42.040 is really
00:28:42.500 a big,
00:28:43.300 big problem.
00:28:44.480 On the
00:28:44.940 other hand,
00:28:45.820 we have
00:28:46.540 equally
00:28:47.620 smart and
00:28:49.020 well-informed
00:28:49.700 Adam
00:28:50.220 Townsend.
00:28:51.680 One of the
00:28:52.520 people that
00:28:53.000 I look to
00:28:53.580 to make
00:28:54.980 sure my
00:28:55.400 opinion makes
00:28:56.660 sense,
00:28:57.440 and Balaji
00:28:58.820 as well.
00:28:59.940 So there are
00:29:00.720 people who
00:29:01.280 will instantly
00:29:02.460 modify my
00:29:03.440 opinion just
00:29:05.140 because they're
00:29:05.660 smarter,
00:29:06.280 and I just
00:29:07.200 change my
00:29:07.660 opinion sometimes
00:29:08.460 when smart
00:29:08.980 people say
00:29:09.560 something else.
00:29:12.500 But Adam
00:29:12.980 says,
00:29:14.080 and I think
00:29:14.700 it would be
00:29:15.460 really easy for
00:29:16.140 me to
00:29:16.640 mischaracterize
00:29:17.820 the nuance
00:29:18.480 of his
00:29:18.880 argument,
00:29:19.560 so I
00:29:20.040 apologize in
00:29:20.760 advance to
00:29:21.420 Adam if
00:29:22.000 I'm doing
00:29:22.320 that.
00:29:22.560 But I'll
00:29:22.720 try my
00:29:23.320 best to
00:29:24.820 capture it
00:29:25.420 right.
00:29:27.680 And I
00:29:28.380 think the
00:29:28.680 feeling is
00:29:29.140 that maybe
00:29:29.580 closing the
00:29:30.240 economy was
00:29:31.040 an overreaction
00:29:32.040 based on
00:29:34.020 what we're
00:29:34.340 seeing.
00:29:35.640 So,
00:29:36.640 and some
00:29:37.620 of the
00:29:37.960 sub-arguments
00:29:39.180 there are
00:29:39.600 that we're
00:29:40.540 probably
00:29:41.040 over-counting
00:29:42.020 the number
00:29:42.420 of deaths
00:29:42.820 in New York.
00:29:43.460 So,
00:29:45.620 does that
00:29:46.160 sound right
00:29:46.800 that we're
00:29:47.160 probably
00:29:47.460 over-counting
00:29:48.480 the number
00:29:49.080 of people
00:29:49.420 dying from
00:29:49.960 coronavirus?
00:29:50.940 Now,
00:29:51.260 the argument
00:29:51.600 here is
00:29:52.560 that,
00:29:53.160 especially for
00:29:53.860 older patients
00:29:54.760 who are
00:29:55.160 the majority
00:29:56.740 of the ones
00:29:57.200 who are
00:29:57.400 having the
00:29:57.740 bad problems,
00:29:59.040 older patients
00:29:59.920 almost always
00:30:00.760 have an
00:30:02.220 underlying
00:30:02.680 health condition.
00:30:04.620 Almost always.
00:30:05.620 You know,
00:30:05.780 if you're 70
00:30:06.400 plus,
00:30:07.500 you've got
00:30:08.000 something wrong
00:30:08.740 with you.
00:30:09.600 You know,
00:30:09.880 a little
00:30:10.160 hypertension,
00:30:11.320 got some
00:30:11.920 COPD,
00:30:13.460 maybe you've
00:30:15.500 got a
00:30:15.780 heart murmur,
00:30:16.740 maybe you've
00:30:17.140 got something.
00:30:19.720 So,
00:30:21.100 but every
00:30:22.360 time one
00:30:22.720 of those
00:30:22.960 people who
00:30:23.320 has some
00:30:23.700 other condition
00:30:24.540 also has
00:30:26.060 coronavirus,
00:30:28.040 you know,
00:30:28.460 are they
00:30:28.720 being recorded
00:30:30.760 correctly?
00:30:32.200 So,
00:30:32.440 in other
00:30:32.640 words,
00:30:32.940 is it the
00:30:33.340 coronavirus
00:30:33.700 that really
00:30:34.500 killed them?
00:30:35.340 Or did
00:30:35.900 they have
00:30:36.220 things that
00:30:36.660 were going
00:30:36.880 to kill
00:30:37.140 them anyway?
00:30:38.680 And so
00:30:38.940 the coronavirus
00:30:39.480 was,
00:30:40.240 you know,
00:30:40.940 just coincidentally
00:30:42.020 in their
00:30:42.440 body too.
00:30:44.020 I don't
00:30:44.380 know how
00:30:44.680 you'd get
00:30:45.000 to the
00:30:45.220 bottom of
00:30:45.520 that,
00:30:45.780 but I'm
00:30:45.980 just pointing
00:30:46.360 out that
00:30:47.140 that's an
00:30:47.940 argument.
00:30:50.020 Likewise,
00:30:51.380 the New York
00:30:52.640 data shows
00:30:53.320 that almost
00:30:54.260 nobody is
00:30:55.160 dying unless
00:30:56.960 they have an
00:30:57.580 underlying
00:30:57.880 condition,
00:30:59.260 which would
00:30:59.980 suggest,
00:31:01.300 well,
00:31:01.560 maybe it's
00:31:01.940 not that
00:31:02.420 bad for
00:31:02.980 regular people.
00:31:04.620 Except that
00:31:05.420 most of us
00:31:07.320 have some
00:31:07.640 kind of
00:31:07.920 underlying
00:31:08.320 condition.
00:31:08.760 if you
00:31:10.100 count
00:31:10.340 overweight
00:31:11.040 and asthma
00:31:12.580 and everything
00:31:13.080 else,
00:31:14.120 a lot of
00:31:14.700 us have
00:31:15.020 an underlying
00:31:15.500 condition,
00:31:16.520 including
00:31:16.860 me.
00:31:20.040 And then
00:31:20.740 also,
00:31:21.520 Adam has
00:31:22.540 correctly
00:31:23.400 pointed out
00:31:24.000 that I
00:31:24.320 believe the
00:31:24.980 models for
00:31:26.500 how many
00:31:26.820 people were
00:31:27.440 already supposed
00:31:28.380 to be dead
00:31:28.980 were not
00:31:30.220 even close.
00:31:30.780 So in
00:31:31.800 other words,
00:31:32.340 apparently
00:31:32.680 we're way
00:31:33.280 less in
00:31:34.260 deaths,
00:31:34.780 way under
00:31:35.760 than the
00:31:37.160 models at
00:31:38.040 one time
00:31:38.540 predicted.
00:31:39.620 Now,
00:31:40.880 let's pull
00:31:41.380 apart these
00:31:41.820 two arguments
00:31:42.380 because they're
00:31:42.920 not exactly
00:31:44.120 opposites.
00:31:45.460 I would say
00:31:46.040 that Adam
00:31:46.520 is more
00:31:47.740 skeptical of
00:31:49.680 the data,
00:31:50.640 which is
00:31:52.100 different from
00:31:52.600 saying the
00:31:53.960 data is
00:31:54.300 wrong.
00:31:55.180 I think
00:31:56.320 he's pointing
00:31:56.980 out that
00:31:58.240 you can't
00:31:58.660 really rely
00:31:59.500 on these
00:32:00.540 numbers and
00:32:01.300 therefore you
00:32:01.940 don't quite
00:32:02.480 know what
00:32:02.820 you're dealing
00:32:03.220 with and
00:32:04.720 you don't
00:32:05.120 necessarily
00:32:05.720 know that
00:32:06.300 it's so
00:32:06.660 bad you
00:32:07.060 should close
00:32:07.600 the entire
00:32:08.040 economy.
00:32:08.860 Here's what's
00:32:09.520 interesting about
00:32:10.160 this, besides
00:32:11.560 the fact that
00:32:12.060 they're both
00:32:12.420 smart and
00:32:12.960 they're looking
00:32:13.280 at the same
00:32:13.740 information.
00:32:15.320 We are so
00:32:16.380 close to
00:32:18.040 knowing who's
00:32:18.680 right and
00:32:20.000 neither of
00:32:20.480 them are
00:32:20.740 backing down.
00:32:22.620 We're so
00:32:23.320 close because
00:32:24.240 in two weeks
00:32:25.080 you're going to
00:32:26.620 know with a
00:32:27.160 fair degree of
00:32:27.920 certainty,
00:32:28.520 right?
00:32:29.280 Was this as
00:32:30.020 bad as
00:32:30.520 the expert
00:32:30.940 said?
00:32:32.200 Or did
00:32:32.680 we just
00:32:34.180 panic and
00:32:34.740 it was more
00:32:35.100 of a
00:32:35.340 hysteria
00:32:35.820 situation?
00:32:37.220 It was the
00:32:37.700 way we
00:32:37.980 were coding
00:32:38.460 the deaths.
00:32:40.520 One of
00:32:41.020 those two
00:32:41.420 positions is
00:32:42.080 going to be
00:32:42.400 right.
00:32:43.920 And we're
00:32:44.280 going to
00:32:44.460 know in
00:32:44.780 two weeks.
00:32:45.380 And the
00:32:45.560 fact that
00:32:45.940 they're both
00:32:46.420 pretty firm
00:32:48.780 in their
00:32:49.120 opposite
00:32:49.540 opinions just
00:32:50.720 fascinates
00:32:51.280 me.
00:32:51.600 It's the
00:32:51.800 two movies
00:32:52.800 on one
00:32:53.180 screen.
00:32:54.220 All right.
00:32:55.520 What will
00:32:56.100 be the impact
00:32:57.860 on climate
00:32:58.940 change
00:32:59.460 politics
00:33:00.580 after all
00:33:02.440 this is
00:33:02.760 done?
00:33:04.140 Because I've
00:33:04.940 never seen
00:33:05.640 experts take a
00:33:06.920 beating like
00:33:07.500 this.
00:33:07.820 Have you?
00:33:09.040 Can you
00:33:09.580 think of any
00:33:10.080 time in your
00:33:10.540 life that the
00:33:12.120 experts were
00:33:13.400 so thoroughly
00:33:15.120 discredited?
00:33:16.600 Not all the
00:33:17.780 experts and not
00:33:18.740 on all the
00:33:19.420 facts.
00:33:19.760 facts.
00:33:21.040 But the
00:33:21.760 whole don't
00:33:22.480 wear it,
00:33:22.920 you don't
00:33:23.180 need a
00:33:24.580 face mask
00:33:25.160 thing, that
00:33:26.880 felt like
00:33:27.400 some kind of
00:33:28.020 a final
00:33:28.500 straw.
00:33:29.880 Because it
00:33:30.500 was just
00:33:30.780 such a
00:33:31.140 blatant lie.
00:33:32.900 And maybe
00:33:33.560 they had
00:33:33.840 good intentions,
00:33:34.660 but it was
00:33:34.860 such a
00:33:35.440 blatant lie
00:33:36.260 that I
00:33:38.260 think experts
00:33:39.400 are forever
00:33:40.100 damaged.
00:33:41.240 At least
00:33:41.700 for those of
00:33:42.800 us who
00:33:43.040 lived through
00:33:43.460 this.
00:33:44.400 I've got a
00:33:45.000 feeling that
00:33:45.380 climate change
00:33:45.980 was going to
00:33:46.420 look different.
00:33:47.720 Now, I
00:33:49.060 tweeted a
00:33:49.560 page from
00:33:50.000 my book
00:33:51.020 Loser
00:33:51.440 Think, in
00:33:52.240 which I
00:33:52.560 was talking
00:33:53.000 about, so
00:33:54.220 before the
00:33:54.900 pandemic
00:33:55.380 happened, I
00:33:56.620 was saying
00:33:57.060 one argument
00:33:58.100 against spending
00:33:59.320 all your money
00:33:59.840 on climate
00:34:00.280 change is
00:34:00.880 it's not
00:34:01.560 the only
00:34:01.980 big threat.
00:34:03.480 And I
00:34:03.720 listed
00:34:04.060 pandemics
00:34:04.900 and asteroids
00:34:05.920 and cyber
00:34:07.440 attacks and
00:34:10.240 those sort
00:34:11.040 of things as
00:34:12.160 the other
00:34:12.540 risks.
00:34:14.040 Now, look
00:34:15.140 what this
00:34:15.720 pandemic did
00:34:16.620 to our
00:34:17.080 economies.
00:34:19.060 Now, just
00:34:19.960 imagine if
00:34:21.600 this had
00:34:22.000 happened, say,
00:34:22.780 two years
00:34:23.320 from now, and
00:34:25.060 you had a
00:34:26.080 president, Bernie
00:34:26.760 Sanders, just
00:34:28.480 hypothetically.
00:34:30.180 If socialism had
00:34:32.540 been in the
00:34:33.260 process of
00:34:34.180 revamping our
00:34:35.360 economy, transitioning
00:34:37.180 to it, let's
00:34:38.560 say the AOCs got
00:34:40.420 their way and
00:34:41.000 won, what kind
00:34:42.440 of shape would
00:34:43.020 we be in
00:34:43.540 now if we'd
00:34:45.320 spent that
00:34:46.000 much money on
00:34:47.260 Green New
00:34:47.700 Deal, could
00:34:49.060 we still do
00:34:49.720 as much as
00:34:50.320 we are, even
00:34:50.880 though we're
00:34:51.300 basically broke
00:34:52.540 already, could
00:34:53.680 we do as
00:34:54.100 much as we're
00:34:54.620 doing against
00:34:55.360 the pandemic?
00:34:56.500 So I don't
00:34:57.080 know the
00:34:57.320 answer to the
00:34:57.640 question, but
00:34:58.200 everybody who
00:35:00.840 thought they
00:35:01.320 were smart,
00:35:04.540 Nassim Taleb,
00:35:07.200 would say you
00:35:10.100 have to spend
00:35:10.780 as much as it
00:35:12.100 takes to fix
00:35:13.000 climate change
00:35:13.820 because it's
00:35:14.400 something that
00:35:15.320 could be a
00:35:16.140 gigantic
00:35:16.580 catastrophe.
00:35:19.120 And I
00:35:20.100 would say that
00:35:21.060 only makes
00:35:21.620 sense if you
00:35:22.140 only have one
00:35:22.680 problem, one
00:35:24.540 problem that
00:35:25.140 could end you,
00:35:25.920 then of course
00:35:26.420 you should
00:35:26.940 overspend to
00:35:27.780 drive that down
00:35:28.700 to zero, even
00:35:29.980 if you thought
00:35:30.460 it was a 1%
00:35:31.280 chance it would
00:35:31.960 take out the
00:35:32.440 planet, you
00:35:32.820 still want to
00:35:33.240 drive that to
00:35:33.780 zero.
00:35:34.760 But if you
00:35:35.300 have multiple
00:35:35.860 risks, you
00:35:37.980 just can't take
00:35:38.600 the same strategy
00:35:39.360 because you
00:35:39.860 don't have
00:35:40.240 infinite money to
00:35:41.240 do everything.
00:35:41.660 So as
00:35:46.060 somebody on
00:35:46.600 Twitter said
00:35:47.120 and some of
00:35:47.580 you have
00:35:47.860 said, I
00:35:48.240 think the
00:35:50.400 way out
00:35:51.100 looks like
00:35:52.020 this.
00:35:53.660 Once we
00:35:54.360 have enough
00:35:54.800 test kits
00:35:55.520 and we're
00:35:57.060 also giving
00:35:57.720 the, we
00:35:58.500 have enough
00:35:58.860 of the
00:35:59.140 hydroxychloroquine
00:36:00.240 and we're
00:36:00.600 giving it to
00:36:01.100 people early,
00:36:02.600 those two
00:36:03.400 things, plus
00:36:05.580 wearing masks,
00:36:06.760 plus keeping
00:36:07.620 grandma socially
00:36:08.600 isolated for a
00:36:09.460 while, probably
00:36:10.620 those things
00:36:11.400 might be
00:36:11.840 enough to
00:36:12.240 get us
00:36:12.480 back to
00:36:12.860 work.
00:36:13.700 Because if
00:36:14.360 it's true
00:36:14.820 that the
00:36:16.420 people who
00:36:17.440 are working
00:36:18.100 age, let's
00:36:18.900 say people
00:36:19.320 under 65,
00:36:21.340 if people
00:36:22.200 under 65
00:36:23.040 get the
00:36:24.560 hydroxychloroquine
00:36:25.640 early and
00:36:26.580 almost never
00:36:27.480 need a
00:36:27.840 ventilator,
00:36:29.280 then all of
00:36:30.060 your health
00:36:30.440 care problems
00:36:31.100 are largely
00:36:32.000 solved, because
00:36:32.800 it's really
00:36:33.140 the ventilator
00:36:34.220 stage where
00:36:34.860 all the
00:36:35.220 problems come,
00:36:36.780 and then the
00:36:37.800 rest of us
00:36:38.260 could test
00:36:38.740 like crazy,
00:36:39.340 keep grandma
00:36:41.080 locked up,
00:36:41.900 wear your
00:36:42.480 face masks
00:36:43.120 for a few
00:36:43.660 months until
00:36:44.200 you feel like
00:36:44.760 you're over
00:36:45.140 it, and
00:36:46.340 maybe you
00:36:46.780 can make it
00:36:48.180 to the point
00:36:48.600 where we
00:36:48.960 can get
00:36:49.360 the blood
00:36:51.820 antibodies in
00:36:52.860 us, and
00:36:53.780 some people
00:36:54.400 have a
00:36:54.940 natural
00:36:55.240 immunity, and
00:36:57.040 then you get
00:36:57.700 to the
00:36:58.120 vaccines.
00:36:59.120 So we do
00:36:59.800 have a way
00:37:00.260 out, but
00:37:01.680 the way out
00:37:02.380 depends on
00:37:03.120 knowing when
00:37:03.620 we'll have
00:37:03.940 enough test
00:37:04.940 kits, when
00:37:06.960 we'll have
00:37:07.260 enough masks,
00:37:08.640 and when
00:37:08.960 we'll have
00:37:09.280 enough hydroxychloroquine,
00:37:11.200 and the FDA
00:37:12.200 is still happy
00:37:12.960 with it, which
00:37:13.540 I think is a
00:37:14.360 given.
00:37:15.460 So we're
00:37:16.480 kind of close
00:37:17.240 to at least
00:37:18.580 knowing what
00:37:19.300 we need, but
00:37:20.860 as I
00:37:21.320 mentioned,
00:37:22.900 as I
00:37:23.440 mentioned,
00:37:24.220 our government,
00:37:25.820 the task
00:37:26.360 force, is
00:37:26.940 not telling
00:37:27.660 us how
00:37:28.760 long any
00:37:29.320 of those
00:37:29.620 things will
00:37:30.060 be.
00:37:30.680 When will
00:37:31.460 we have
00:37:31.760 enough tests?
00:37:32.480 When will
00:37:33.600 we have
00:37:33.900 enough drugs
00:37:34.380 and masks
00:37:34.940 and stuff?
00:37:36.800 There's no
00:37:37.460 excuse for
00:37:38.100 it anymore.
00:37:39.180 There's just
00:37:39.520 no excuse
00:37:40.120 for them
00:37:40.800 not giving
00:37:41.260 us that
00:37:41.620 kind of
00:37:42.040 visibility on
00:37:42.760 this.
00:37:43.020 Just no
00:37:43.340 excuse.
00:37:44.360 I could
00:37:44.720 not be
00:37:45.300 more angry
00:37:46.060 about that.
00:37:48.860 Is China
00:37:49.400 using the
00:37:50.560 sickened
00:37:51.480 bodies?
00:37:52.120 Using them
00:37:52.620 for what?
00:37:55.160 I mean,
00:37:55.780 is China
00:37:56.180 using the
00:37:56.800 blood serum
00:37:57.560 thing?
00:37:58.140 I believe
00:37:58.540 that they
00:37:58.980 did try it.
00:37:59.820 I think
00:38:00.080 others are
00:38:01.140 trying it
00:38:01.500 too.
00:38:02.480 big pharma
00:38:04.960 doesn't
00:38:05.360 want a
00:38:05.740 $20
00:38:06.080 cure.
00:38:07.280 That
00:38:07.580 might be
00:38:07.960 part of
00:38:08.300 the
00:38:08.400 problem.
00:38:11.320 Might
00:38:11.800 be.
00:38:13.520 Why
00:38:14.000 hasn't
00:38:14.360 the
00:38:14.560 Trump
00:38:14.840 administration
00:38:15.320 hired you
00:38:16.580 as a
00:38:16.920 consultant?
00:38:18.140 Well,
00:38:18.600 why would
00:38:18.980 they hire
00:38:19.340 me?
00:38:19.560 They get
00:38:19.800 it for
00:38:20.040 free.
00:38:24.360 About
00:38:24.840 pneumonia
00:38:25.320 vaccines,
00:38:26.000 I was
00:38:26.260 wondering
00:38:26.560 about that,
00:38:27.120 you know?
00:38:28.280 That's a
00:38:28.880 good question.
00:38:30.620 Does the
00:38:31.240 pneumonia
00:38:31.680 vaccine
00:38:32.620 protect you
00:38:34.560 from
00:38:35.000 coronavirus
00:38:35.820 since
00:38:36.300 coronavirus,
00:38:37.540 the risk
00:38:37.980 is that it
00:38:38.360 gives you
00:38:38.660 pneumonia?
00:38:39.140 That's a
00:38:39.380 good question.
00:38:40.560 Why has
00:38:41.920 nobody asked
00:38:42.620 that question
00:38:43.220 in public?
00:38:44.720 I have to
00:38:45.280 see it on
00:38:45.740 a comment
00:38:46.520 here.
00:38:47.340 I'd love to
00:38:47.720 see the
00:38:47.980 answer to
00:38:48.300 that.
00:38:51.000 China
00:38:51.620 sent
00:38:51.960 spreaders,
00:38:52.700 you think?
00:38:53.580 Yeah.
00:38:54.940 You know,
00:38:55.460 I don't know
00:38:57.160 about the
00:38:57.820 I don't
00:39:00.040 believe that
00:39:00.620 China did
00:39:02.320 this
00:39:02.600 intentionally,
00:39:04.100 but there's
00:39:06.240 a difference
00:39:06.640 of opinion
00:39:07.280 about whether
00:39:08.060 you could
00:39:08.500 tell if
00:39:09.360 a virus
00:39:10.780 was engineered.
00:39:12.500 So I've
00:39:13.180 heard smart
00:39:13.680 people say,
00:39:14.340 oh, you
00:39:14.700 could certainly
00:39:15.200 tell if it
00:39:15.700 was engineered,
00:39:16.880 to which I
00:39:18.140 say, well,
00:39:19.600 if the only
00:39:20.440 thing you
00:39:20.820 engineered was
00:39:22.220 combining parts
00:39:23.440 from existing
00:39:24.240 viruses,
00:39:24.740 you really
00:39:26.500 think you
00:39:26.860 could tell?
00:39:28.040 Because wouldn't
00:39:28.640 it look like
00:39:29.280 a virus like
00:39:30.720 every other
00:39:31.160 virus?
00:39:31.700 They all have
00:39:32.080 the same
00:39:32.520 kind of parts,
00:39:33.840 but they're in
00:39:34.280 different order,
00:39:34.940 basically.
00:39:36.300 I feel like
00:39:37.240 you could
00:39:37.560 engineer a
00:39:38.200 virus that
00:39:38.760 nobody would
00:39:39.280 know was
00:39:39.660 engineered,
00:39:40.440 as long as
00:39:40.900 you used
00:39:41.360 parts from
00:39:42.360 existing viruses
00:39:43.280 to give you
00:39:43.880 what you
00:39:44.140 wanted.
00:39:44.940 But I don't
00:39:45.420 think it
00:39:45.660 happened.
00:39:46.240 I think it's
00:39:46.700 more likely,
00:39:47.860 I do think
00:39:48.640 it's more
00:39:48.940 likely it came
00:39:49.580 from some
00:39:50.200 kind of a
00:39:50.680 lab, but
00:39:51.940 probably
00:39:52.240 accidentally.
00:39:54.740 All right.
00:39:56.900 Was Venezuela
00:39:57.900 a drug move,
00:39:58.760 a message to
00:39:59.580 China?
00:40:00.620 I believe so.
00:40:01.880 Yeah, let's
00:40:02.260 talk about that.
00:40:03.500 So I talked
00:40:03.880 about it a
00:40:04.220 little last
00:40:04.880 night.
00:40:06.640 Anything big
00:40:07.680 that's happening
00:40:08.240 in the world
00:40:08.840 at the moment,
00:40:10.240 you almost have
00:40:11.380 to always ask
00:40:12.060 yourself,
00:40:12.940 eh, what's
00:40:13.660 that got to
00:40:14.060 do with
00:40:14.340 China?
00:40:15.100 Because it
00:40:15.500 feels like
00:40:16.160 that's the
00:40:17.720 backdrop to
00:40:18.340 everything.
00:40:19.340 So when the
00:40:19.820 president announced
00:40:20.560 he was going
00:40:21.020 to do more
00:40:21.440 naval
00:40:22.000 interdicting,
00:40:26.320 mostly between
00:40:28.120 South America
00:40:30.380 and Central
00:40:31.240 America.
00:40:32.520 So it
00:40:32.920 wasn't really
00:40:33.460 the Mexican
00:40:34.480 cartels that
00:40:35.220 were going
00:40:35.540 after, well,
00:40:36.440 I don't know,
00:40:37.000 I'm not sure
00:40:37.460 which cartels
00:40:38.100 were involved,
00:40:39.040 but they were
00:40:39.420 going after the
00:40:40.220 routes between
00:40:41.280 South America
00:40:42.100 and Central
00:40:42.820 America that
00:40:43.400 would go over
00:40:43.880 water, mostly.
00:40:45.420 And I don't
00:40:46.320 know what that
00:40:46.700 means.
00:40:48.560 So here's my
00:40:49.520 question.
00:40:50.560 Are we so
00:40:51.180 good at
00:40:51.780 recognizing a
00:40:53.820 smuggling boat
00:40:54.780 that we can
00:40:56.480 identify them
00:40:57.480 and stop them?
00:40:58.680 I mean, it's a
00:40:59.100 big ocean.
00:41:00.500 Can we do
00:41:00.980 that?
00:41:01.680 Can we tell
00:41:02.240 every boat
00:41:02.940 and what they're
00:41:03.460 up to?
00:41:04.080 I mean, I
00:41:04.380 just don't
00:41:04.760 know if you
00:41:05.920 can interdict
00:41:07.380 anything.
00:41:08.700 So that's my
00:41:09.660 first question is,
00:41:10.560 does it really
00:41:11.040 even make any
00:41:11.640 difference if we
00:41:12.300 send our entire
00:41:13.000 Navy there?
00:41:14.240 Are we going
00:41:14.800 to even know
00:41:15.220 who to stop
00:41:15.820 and search?
00:41:16.720 I don't know.
00:41:17.900 But maybe we
00:41:18.700 do, or at
00:41:19.340 least it makes
00:41:19.740 some difference.
00:41:20.280 But here's
00:41:21.100 what I
00:41:21.360 think.
00:41:21.780 I think it
00:41:22.180 has more
00:41:22.540 to do with
00:41:23.060 moving our
00:41:23.700 naval assets
00:41:24.480 into the
00:41:25.060 area, if
00:41:26.520 you know
00:41:26.760 what I
00:41:27.000 mean.
00:41:27.880 Because Maduro
00:41:28.660 is still
00:41:29.160 there, and
00:41:29.640 we've now
00:41:30.020 put a price
00:41:30.600 on his
00:41:30.920 head, which
00:41:31.660 allows us,
00:41:33.040 I think he's
00:41:33.520 been determined
00:41:34.460 to be some
00:41:35.000 kind of a
00:41:35.560 criminal, which
00:41:36.720 allows us
00:41:37.260 basically to
00:41:38.040 kill him.
00:41:39.560 So we just
00:41:40.500 put a bounty
00:41:41.040 on his head,
00:41:42.700 essentially told
00:41:43.620 the world that
00:41:44.380 from our
00:41:45.220 perspective it's
00:41:45.980 okay to kill
00:41:46.640 him, and
00:41:47.740 then we just
00:41:48.140 moved all of
00:41:48.740 our military
00:41:50.060 assets into
00:41:50.980 his backyard,
00:41:52.560 but it's for
00:41:53.760 allegedly a
00:41:54.580 different reason.
00:41:57.400 Maybe.
00:41:58.620 Maybe the
00:41:59.540 only reason we're
00:42:00.560 moving our
00:42:01.260 military assets
00:42:02.180 there is to
00:42:03.300 take care of
00:42:03.760 this little
00:42:04.100 smuggling problem,
00:42:05.560 because apparently
00:42:06.260 Venezuela is
00:42:07.380 using the
00:42:08.040 drug money to
00:42:09.740 replace money
00:42:10.420 they're losing
00:42:10.920 on oil and
00:42:11.700 other stuff.
00:42:12.620 So it could
00:42:13.320 be they're just
00:42:13.840 starving the
00:42:14.400 Maduro regime,
00:42:15.700 and it's
00:42:16.100 exactly what
00:42:16.760 the president
00:42:17.160 says.
00:42:17.880 We're just
00:42:18.720 going to stop
00:42:19.140 the drug
00:42:19.500 trade so
00:42:20.980 that Maduro
00:42:21.480 doesn't get
00:42:22.000 this illegal
00:42:22.640 drug money.
00:42:23.220 Could be
00:42:23.460 just that.
00:42:24.880 Or it
00:42:26.560 could be an
00:42:27.120 excuse to
00:42:27.740 move our
00:42:28.100 assets into
00:42:28.940 the area
00:42:29.480 without people
00:42:30.920 thinking it's
00:42:31.920 an invasion.
00:42:33.720 Just in
00:42:34.380 case, we
00:42:35.980 need to do
00:42:36.380 a little
00:42:36.640 invading.
00:42:37.640 Now I
00:42:37.880 don't know
00:42:38.220 that we
00:42:38.500 would put
00:42:38.820 boots on
00:42:39.260 the ground.
00:42:40.840 I don't
00:42:41.240 know, I'm
00:42:41.640 not a military
00:42:42.380 strategist, but
00:42:43.780 if it all
00:42:44.140 comes down
00:42:44.600 to basically
00:42:45.800 killing one
00:42:46.580 guy, and
00:42:48.000 you've just
00:42:48.500 socialized it
00:42:49.800 with the
00:42:50.080 world, because
00:42:51.060 when the
00:42:51.340 president put
00:42:51.900 a price on
00:42:52.740 his head,
00:42:53.680 that was
00:42:54.240 sort of
00:42:54.700 saying to
00:42:55.140 the world,
00:42:56.340 hey, you
00:42:56.860 know, I'm
00:42:57.180 just giving
00:42:57.520 you a
00:42:57.740 warning, is
00:42:58.840 anybody going
00:42:59.380 to have
00:42:59.740 a problem
00:43:02.140 because we're
00:43:03.900 going to kill
00:43:04.280 this guy?
00:43:05.740 Anybody?
00:43:06.660 Because this
00:43:07.120 would be the
00:43:07.480 time to
00:43:07.860 complain.
00:43:09.560 I don't
00:43:10.160 know if
00:43:10.420 anybody complained.
00:43:11.240 I didn't
00:43:12.340 hear any, but
00:43:14.040 you can
00:43:14.480 imagine that
00:43:15.120 China wasn't
00:43:15.700 too happy,
00:43:16.960 because China
00:43:17.600 is probably
00:43:18.360 working with
00:43:19.260 Maduro, and
00:43:19.960 they don't
00:43:20.280 know if he's
00:43:20.920 replaced by
00:43:21.580 somebody else.
00:43:22.960 Let's say
00:43:23.440 somebody elected
00:43:24.480 democratically,
00:43:26.220 would they
00:43:26.680 work with
00:43:27.120 China?
00:43:27.620 Because China
00:43:28.040 had been one
00:43:29.400 of their
00:43:29.600 biggest trading
00:43:30.180 partners with
00:43:30.800 Venezuela.
00:43:31.980 I don't know
00:43:32.680 what that looks
00:43:33.140 like at the
00:43:33.560 moment, because
00:43:34.040 Venezuela is
00:43:34.680 falling apart.
00:43:36.740 But I
00:43:37.640 would think
00:43:38.020 that the
00:43:38.360 president's
00:43:38.940 larger strategic
00:43:40.000 objective is
00:43:41.080 to get
00:43:41.440 China out
00:43:42.220 of Venezuela,
00:43:43.460 to get
00:43:43.900 China out
00:43:44.560 of our
00:43:44.860 hemisphere.
00:43:45.820 I think
00:43:46.340 maybe that
00:43:46.900 matters more
00:43:47.500 than anything
00:43:48.120 else in the
00:43:49.120 long run.
00:43:50.080 Wouldn't you
00:43:50.480 think?
00:43:51.020 You don't
00:43:51.500 want China
00:43:52.500 to have that
00:43:53.440 much influence
00:43:54.080 over anything
00:43:54.820 in South
00:43:55.320 America?
00:43:56.500 So this
00:43:58.040 could be
00:43:58.700 this big
00:43:59.720 move to
00:44:00.400 maybe stop
00:44:01.100 some drugs,
00:44:01.880 but more
00:44:02.200 likely block
00:44:04.040 China.
00:44:04.980 So that's
00:44:05.360 what I
00:44:05.620 think.
00:44:06.480 That's what
00:44:06.860 I think.
00:44:07.160 it's a
00:44:11.460 cartel.
00:44:13.140 Okay.
00:44:15.260 Oil.
00:44:16.120 I don't
00:44:16.640 know if
00:44:16.860 anybody wants
00:44:17.520 oil anymore.
00:44:19.040 Oil is so
00:44:19.980 cheap, maybe
00:44:20.480 nobody wants
00:44:21.160 it anymore.
00:44:24.680 One theory
00:44:25.480 is that drugs
00:44:26.300 are how the
00:44:27.000 flu got here,
00:44:28.800 or the
00:44:29.500 virus.
00:44:30.500 Yeah, maybe.
00:44:32.560 Maybe.
00:44:33.080 But it
00:44:35.700 seems more
00:44:36.100 likely people.
00:44:37.560 So one of
00:44:38.100 the things
00:44:38.380 we're learning
00:44:38.880 is that the
00:44:39.660 amount of
00:44:40.460 viral load
00:44:41.360 you get
00:44:41.780 matters, so
00:44:42.920 that when
00:44:44.040 people are
00:44:44.560 singing in
00:44:45.420 the same
00:44:45.740 room, the
00:44:46.880 odds of
00:44:47.320 them all
00:44:47.660 getting it
00:44:48.120 are pretty
00:44:48.460 high.
00:44:49.960 So don't
00:44:50.800 do any
00:44:51.280 singing, and
00:44:53.560 wear your
00:44:53.980 face mask.
00:44:58.180 Azithromycin
00:44:58.660 is an
00:44:59.400 antibiotic.
00:45:00.260 That is
00:45:00.500 correct.
00:45:01.240 So the
00:45:01.520 azithromycin
00:45:02.220 is useful
00:45:03.540 if you
00:45:03.960 actually have
00:45:04.620 it, if
00:45:05.360 you have
00:45:05.680 the
00:45:06.280 coronavirus.
00:45:08.000 But if
00:45:08.480 you don't
00:45:08.800 have it, you
00:45:09.720 don't want an
00:45:10.280 antibiotic in
00:45:11.740 you.
00:45:13.700 Get China
00:45:14.380 out of
00:45:14.680 Africa, too.
00:45:17.560 Well, I
00:45:18.660 have a
00:45:18.880 feeling that
00:45:19.300 Africa is
00:45:19.840 just going to
00:45:20.240 blow up in
00:45:20.740 their faces.
00:45:22.720 You know,
00:45:24.260 so maybe
00:45:25.000 China can
00:45:25.500 have Africa.
00:45:27.760 Why did
00:45:28.460 CBS News
00:45:29.280 use footage
00:45:30.120 from an
00:45:30.540 Italian
00:45:30.920 hospital
00:45:31.540 when
00:45:32.420 describing
00:45:32.860 conditions
00:45:33.480 in New
00:45:33.800 York?
00:45:34.400 Well, I
00:45:34.800 don't think
00:45:35.220 that you
00:45:35.560 can bring
00:45:36.060 cameras in
00:45:36.820 to an
00:45:38.300 American
00:45:38.700 emergency
00:45:39.260 room because
00:45:39.980 of privacy.
00:45:41.600 So I'm
00:45:42.640 sure it's
00:45:43.020 just some
00:45:43.380 producer said
00:45:44.120 we need a
00:45:44.780 picture of
00:45:45.960 an operating
00:45:46.400 room, and
00:45:47.200 they had
00:45:48.440 one.
00:45:49.100 That's
00:45:49.320 probably all
00:45:49.760 it was.
00:45:53.860 Oil is
00:45:54.560 up 35%.
00:45:55.740 News of
00:45:56.420 the day.
00:45:58.000 Well, let's
00:45:58.580 see what the
00:45:58.980 stock market
00:45:59.520 looks like.
00:46:02.540 Stock market
00:46:03.400 looks smartly
00:46:05.780 up.
00:46:07.220 Smartly up,
00:46:08.060 at least in
00:46:08.560 a lot of
00:46:08.860 categories.
00:46:10.180 More up
00:46:10.860 than down.
00:46:13.280 Not bad.
00:46:14.560 All right?
00:46:14.960 So that's
00:46:15.300 good news.
00:46:16.100 You know, if
00:46:16.540 you have to
00:46:16.940 make a bet
00:46:17.700 on the
00:46:18.660 stock market
00:46:19.320 price, let
00:46:22.140 me give you
00:46:22.780 a rule that
00:46:24.440 will work
00:46:25.120 75% of
00:46:26.540 the time,
00:46:28.360 that whatever
00:46:28.960 the market
00:46:30.580 did yesterday,
00:46:31.460 it'll do the
00:46:31.920 other thing
00:46:32.420 the next
00:46:33.160 day.
00:46:34.060 So today
00:46:34.840 looks like
00:46:35.560 it's going
00:46:35.860 to be a
00:46:36.120 big up
00:46:36.520 day.
00:46:36.980 If it
00:46:37.540 ends the
00:46:37.940 day up,
00:46:39.260 you know,
00:46:39.620 3% to
00:46:40.100 5%, which
00:46:41.020 would be a
00:46:41.380 big day,
00:46:42.220 the odds
00:46:43.280 of tomorrow
00:46:43.880 also being
00:46:44.820 up, much
00:46:46.900 smaller.
00:46:47.280 So I'd
00:46:50.240 say there's
00:46:50.600 a 75%
00:46:51.620 chance in
00:46:52.500 our current
00:46:52.920 environment
00:46:53.360 that the
00:46:54.460 next day
00:46:54.980 will be
00:46:55.380 whatever is
00:46:55.860 the opposite
00:46:56.340 of today.
00:46:57.360 So if it
00:46:57.960 were bad,
00:46:58.420 it's going
00:46:58.640 to be good.
00:46:59.040 If it's
00:46:59.260 good, it's
00:46:59.620 going to
00:46:59.780 be bad.
00:47:00.960 But it's
00:47:01.580 not going
00:47:01.860 to happen
00:47:02.100 every time.
00:47:02.680 It's at least
00:47:02.920 75% of the
00:47:03.880 time.
00:47:04.580 And that's
00:47:04.920 what allows
00:47:05.340 you to
00:47:05.920 creep up
00:47:06.700 over time,
00:47:07.520 that your
00:47:08.140 ups outnumber
00:47:09.320 your downs
00:47:09.820 over time.
00:47:11.660 However,
00:47:12.380 do not make
00:47:13.040 any bets
00:47:13.640 based on
00:47:14.580 cartoonists
00:47:15.440 speculating
00:47:16.300 about
00:47:16.760 magical
00:47:17.220 things.
00:47:18.260 So don't
00:47:18.940 take any
00:47:19.360 investment
00:47:20.180 advice from
00:47:20.780 me.
00:47:25.440 How is
00:47:26.320 chloroquine
00:47:27.240 supposed to
00:47:27.880 work?
00:47:28.740 Well, it
00:47:29.240 keeps your
00:47:29.640 body from
00:47:30.400 going into
00:47:31.080 that trying
00:47:32.700 too hard to
00:47:33.400 kill the
00:47:33.720 virus mode.
00:47:34.540 It's your
00:47:34.840 body that
00:47:35.260 actually kills
00:47:35.820 you, not
00:47:36.320 the virus.
00:47:37.300 It's your
00:47:37.680 body trying
00:47:38.160 to fight
00:47:38.540 the virus
00:47:39.060 that makes
00:47:40.260 your lungs
00:47:40.680 stop working.
00:47:42.480 Do you
00:47:42.680 think Biden
00:47:43.220 is sound
00:47:43.820 of mind?
00:47:44.500 No, not
00:47:44.900 even close.
00:47:45.600 I don't
00:47:48.100 think there
00:47:48.520 are any
00:47:48.840 Democrats
00:47:49.400 at this
00:47:50.000 point, at
00:47:51.060 least the
00:47:51.920 professionals.
00:47:53.420 I don't
00:47:53.880 think that
00:47:54.300 they think
00:47:54.760 that Biden
00:47:55.260 is capable.
00:47:56.940 people.
00:48:00.320 Yeah, the
00:48:00.920 virus could
00:48:01.760 come back
00:48:02.200 year after
00:48:02.880 year, but
00:48:03.300 we would
00:48:03.560 have some
00:48:03.900 immunity by
00:48:04.540 then, so
00:48:05.000 it wouldn't
00:48:05.220 be as
00:48:05.700 bad.
00:48:09.340 No price
00:48:10.100 increase until
00:48:10.820 Saudi's
00:48:11.440 lower production.
00:48:13.780 All right, I
00:48:14.460 don't know what
00:48:14.780 the situation
00:48:15.320 there is.
00:48:16.040 it's 35%
00:48:20.420 down, dear.
00:48:22.740 So somebody
00:48:23.240 is saying
00:48:23.520 that oil
00:48:23.920 is down
00:48:24.520 or is it
00:48:25.360 up?
00:48:26.320 I don't
00:48:26.680 know.
00:48:28.540 It'll be
00:48:28.940 whatever is
00:48:29.940 the difference
00:48:30.440 tomorrow.
00:48:31.420 So tomorrow
00:48:31.860 it'll be
00:48:32.220 whatever is
00:48:32.660 different than
00:48:33.100 that.
00:48:34.880 Is Cuomo
00:48:35.760 going to
00:48:36.280 replace Biden?
00:48:37.100 He says
00:48:37.520 no, and I
00:48:38.880 don't know
00:48:39.140 how he would
00:48:39.760 run for
00:48:40.700 president.
00:48:41.460 I think he's
00:48:41.960 pretty busy.
00:48:42.480 Yes, I'm
00:48:45.060 sticking with
00:48:45.640 my 5,000
00:48:47.180 net, keyword
00:48:49.180 net, so
00:48:50.520 when all of
00:48:50.960 you come back
00:48:51.440 later to
00:48:51.940 tell me I'm
00:48:52.400 wrong, you'll
00:48:53.740 forget the
00:48:54.300 net part.
00:48:55.580 So let me
00:48:56.300 say in
00:48:56.640 advance, you
00:48:57.800 stupid idiot,
00:49:00.080 you forgot
00:49:00.540 the net part.
00:49:01.860 So you're not
00:49:02.460 criticizing me,
00:49:03.280 you're criticizing
00:49:03.880 your own
00:49:04.260 hallucination.
00:49:04.940 I like to
00:49:05.320 tell you what
00:49:07.280 I'm going to
00:49:07.580 say weeks in
00:49:09.160 advance.
00:49:10.700 So the
00:49:11.480 5,000 net
00:49:12.700 makes this
00:49:13.900 assumption.
00:49:14.580 Because we're
00:49:15.060 shut down, there
00:49:16.500 are a whole
00:49:16.740 bunch of
00:49:17.160 lives that
00:49:17.680 are not
00:49:18.020 being lost,
00:49:19.140 traffic accidents,
00:49:20.600 etc.
00:49:21.560 And you have
00:49:22.220 to net that
00:49:22.700 out, because
00:49:23.460 the decision
00:49:24.200 to close the
00:49:24.860 economy is
00:49:26.500 the decision
00:49:27.080 about how to
00:49:27.660 treat the
00:49:28.020 virus.
00:49:28.760 So it's all
00:49:29.280 part of the
00:49:29.700 same decision.
00:49:30.600 You can't
00:49:31.000 say this
00:49:31.940 many people
00:49:32.460 died in the
00:49:33.060 hospital, and
00:49:34.280 then ignore
00:49:34.780 the fact that
00:49:36.040 twice as many
00:49:36.720 people are
00:49:37.260 alive who
00:49:38.300 would have
00:49:38.640 been dead
00:49:39.200 under other
00:49:39.700 conditions.
00:49:40.180 So at
00:49:41.360 the moment
00:49:41.680 we're still
00:49:42.060 negative.
00:49:43.300 My understanding
00:49:44.200 is that the
00:49:44.880 number of
00:49:45.260 people who
00:49:45.640 have been
00:49:45.880 saved by
00:49:47.340 not having
00:49:47.880 a normal
00:49:48.280 economy is
00:49:49.620 still quite a
00:49:50.440 bit bigger
00:49:50.880 than the
00:49:51.360 total number
00:49:51.900 who are
00:49:52.140 dead.
00:49:52.680 Now I do
00:49:53.220 expect that
00:49:53.740 to reverse,
00:49:54.840 so it's not
00:49:55.960 going to stay
00:49:56.360 that way,
00:49:57.140 you know,
00:49:57.900 and the
00:49:59.500 economy itself
00:50:00.420 will cause
00:50:00.920 some problems
00:50:01.540 with poverty
00:50:02.940 too, and
00:50:03.400 that's hard
00:50:03.980 to net
00:50:06.160 that out of
00:50:06.680 there.
00:50:06.840 why am I
00:50:09.040 away from
00:50:09.540 Christina?
00:50:10.940 Somebody says.
00:50:12.040 Well, here's
00:50:12.760 the situation.
00:50:13.500 So she has
00:50:14.660 her own
00:50:14.960 house, and
00:50:16.040 she took
00:50:17.620 in a
00:50:18.000 family member.
00:50:20.180 You know,
00:50:20.440 it's emergency
00:50:20.900 time, so people
00:50:21.840 are doing what
00:50:22.280 they have to
00:50:22.580 do, and
00:50:23.580 one of her
00:50:24.080 family members
00:50:24.780 works at a
00:50:25.280 hospital.
00:50:27.120 So in
00:50:28.240 Christina's
00:50:29.200 house, you
00:50:30.160 know, it's
00:50:31.820 only young
00:50:32.800 people, and
00:50:34.640 one of
00:50:36.640 them has
00:50:37.640 a critical
00:50:38.200 job at
00:50:38.700 a hospital.
00:50:39.840 So I
00:50:40.740 can't be in
00:50:41.260 a house
00:50:41.700 where there's
00:50:42.400 somebody going
00:50:42.900 to a
00:50:43.220 hospital and
00:50:43.740 coming home.
00:50:44.900 So I'm
00:50:45.360 in my big
00:50:46.380 old house
00:50:46.800 alone with
00:50:47.520 no human
00:50:47.940 contact.
00:50:53.660 What about
00:50:54.500 the three
00:50:55.400 candidates
00:50:56.020 catching
00:50:56.760 coronavirus?
00:50:57.740 Well, it's
00:50:58.080 possible.
00:50:59.160 You know, I
00:50:59.840 said that a
00:51:00.580 question that
00:51:01.140 should be
00:51:01.520 asked of
00:51:02.940 the task
00:51:03.500 force is,
00:51:04.420 are they
00:51:04.680 already
00:51:05.200 taking
00:51:05.760 hydroxychloroquine?
00:51:07.560 And I'm
00:51:08.120 really surprised
00:51:08.980 that didn't
00:51:09.420 get asked
00:51:09.920 yesterday,
00:51:10.920 because it's
00:51:11.860 such an
00:51:14.120 obvious question,
00:51:15.900 isn't it?
00:51:16.900 Isn't it like
00:51:17.860 just a super
00:51:18.820 obvious question?
00:51:20.620 Mr. President,
00:51:21.820 Mr. Vice
00:51:22.320 President, are
00:51:23.060 you taking
00:51:23.780 hydroxychloroquine
00:51:26.400 for preventive
00:51:28.020 reasons?
00:51:29.360 Because wouldn't
00:51:30.180 you be surprised
00:51:31.080 if they're not?
00:51:31.840 I would be a
00:51:33.840 little worried
00:51:34.360 if they're
00:51:34.720 not, right?
00:51:36.120 Because the
00:51:36.760 task force
00:51:37.320 people just
00:51:37.900 don't have the
00:51:38.760 same flexibility
00:51:39.820 that we do.
00:51:40.800 I mean, even
00:51:41.520 when they're
00:51:41.840 standing on the
00:51:42.400 stage, they're
00:51:43.000 closer than six
00:51:43.740 feet away from
00:51:44.240 each other.
00:51:45.460 So I feel
00:51:46.900 like that's just
00:51:47.520 a given.
00:51:48.120 They should be
00:51:48.520 on it, and
00:51:49.020 they should
00:51:49.300 tell us.
00:51:50.120 I think that
00:51:50.680 we're owed
00:51:51.040 that.
00:51:51.760 I think we're
00:51:52.420 owed that
00:51:52.920 information.
00:51:56.980 Yeah, somebody
00:51:57.920 said, what
00:51:59.480 about obesity?
00:52:00.980 obesity.
00:52:01.900 So there's
00:52:02.600 some indication,
00:52:03.740 at least in
00:52:04.140 Italy, that
00:52:04.880 something like,
00:52:06.400 or maybe other
00:52:07.300 countries do,
00:52:08.240 something like
00:52:08.840 80 to 90% of
00:52:10.020 the people dying
00:52:10.820 are obese, or
00:52:13.980 at least they're
00:52:14.540 overweight quite a
00:52:15.880 bit.
00:52:16.920 So does that
00:52:19.060 then tell me
00:52:20.000 that I don't
00:52:20.540 have as much
00:52:21.440 of a risk if
00:52:22.500 I'm a normal
00:52:23.160 average weight?
00:52:25.100 I don't know.
00:52:26.040 It feels like it,
00:52:27.100 but I also have
00:52:27.660 a little asthma.
00:52:28.200 Now, having a
00:52:30.460 little asthma,
00:52:31.640 which is well
00:52:32.960 controlled, does
00:52:34.920 that put me at
00:52:35.560 the same risk as
00:52:36.900 somebody who has
00:52:37.520 COPD?
00:52:39.020 Because they lump
00:52:40.160 them together.
00:52:41.240 You know, if you
00:52:41.700 have lung disease,
00:52:43.620 it's like a big
00:52:44.180 category.
00:52:45.340 But if you have
00:52:46.060 COPD and you're
00:52:47.340 80, you're pretty
00:52:49.460 close to death
00:52:50.140 anyway.
00:52:51.020 So I can see how
00:52:52.020 the virus would
00:52:53.260 finish you off.
00:52:54.040 But if you're
00:52:55.120 in good shape,
00:52:56.540 normal weight,
00:52:57.960 everything's fine,
00:52:58.660 but you've got a
00:52:59.460 little bit of
00:53:00.220 asthma that's
00:53:00.980 well controlled,
00:53:03.440 am I in the
00:53:04.760 death group?
00:53:06.020 I'm going to
00:53:06.660 act like I am
00:53:07.580 because I don't
00:53:08.080 want to take the
00:53:08.700 chance, but I
00:53:10.040 kind of doubt
00:53:10.740 that my risk is
00:53:12.880 just like an
00:53:14.560 80-year-old with
00:53:15.360 COPD.
00:53:16.880 Anyway, let's
00:53:22.120 see.
00:53:22.460 help name the
00:53:24.500 Fortune 500 ETF.
00:53:26.600 Well, there are
00:53:27.000 ETFs and there
00:53:28.040 are SPYDERS.
00:53:29.300 There's a technical
00:53:30.440 difference, but they
00:53:31.300 act the same.
00:53:32.480 So the one I use
00:53:33.500 is SPY, S-P-Y.
00:53:36.340 So if you look
00:53:37.560 for that in your
00:53:38.560 online brokerage,
00:53:40.600 S-P-Y, it'll
00:53:43.040 pop up and it's
00:53:43.980 a basket of the
00:53:45.340 top 500 stocks
00:53:46.800 in the United
00:53:47.320 States.
00:53:48.220 I'm not
00:53:48.820 recommending it.
00:53:50.400 I only recommend
00:53:51.440 diversification.
00:53:53.700 That basket of
00:53:55.400 stocks does give
00:53:56.500 you diversification,
00:53:57.960 but I don't
00:53:58.760 recommend it.
00:54:00.420 Find your own
00:54:01.340 way to make it
00:54:02.760 work, but
00:54:03.180 diversifying is
00:54:03.880 good.
00:54:04.060 I tell you, Chris
00:54:09.420 Cuomo is just
00:54:11.460 getting more
00:54:11.940 interesting all the
00:54:12.820 time, unfortunately
00:54:13.760 not for happy
00:54:15.220 reasons, but I
00:54:17.180 don't know if you
00:54:17.540 saw he was
00:54:18.020 talking about
00:54:18.660 his fevers and
00:54:22.180 hallucinations, and
00:54:24.100 I don't know how
00:54:26.780 many of you are
00:54:27.340 doing this, but I
00:54:29.620 spend part of
00:54:30.680 every day going
00:54:32.700 through my memory
00:54:33.560 of how sick I
00:54:35.260 was in January
00:54:36.100 and trying to
00:54:37.560 convince myself
00:54:38.440 that I already
00:54:39.080 had it.
00:54:40.620 And that, you
00:54:40.940 know, because I
00:54:42.360 my January was
00:54:44.460 the sickest I've
00:54:45.640 been as an
00:54:46.560 adult.
00:54:47.940 Maybe.
00:54:48.980 I mean, you
00:54:49.640 witnessed some
00:54:50.780 of it.
00:54:51.080 I thought I
00:54:51.460 just had, I
00:54:52.660 thought I had
00:54:53.080 nasal problems
00:54:53.980 and fever and
00:54:55.200 night sweats and
00:54:57.460 everything, and I
00:54:57.920 thought it was the
00:54:58.360 meds, because I
00:54:59.640 was on meds for
00:55:00.340 some sinus
00:55:01.340 stuff, and maybe
00:55:03.580 it wasn't, because
00:55:06.500 I felt a little
00:55:07.320 sicker than I've
00:55:08.000 ever felt in my
00:55:08.600 life, but I
00:55:09.180 thought it was
00:55:09.560 just a bad
00:55:10.020 reaction to some
00:55:10.840 meds.
00:55:12.040 But maybe I
00:55:12.640 had it.
00:55:13.780 Who knew?
00:55:14.160 All right.
00:55:20.280 Asthma is part
00:55:21.220 of the COPD
00:55:22.040 Venn diagram, I
00:55:23.320 know, but I
00:55:24.560 just don't know
00:55:25.180 that COPD and
00:55:27.520 asthma are going
00:55:28.320 to respond the
00:55:29.040 same to this
00:55:29.740 virus.
00:55:30.800 It might.
00:55:31.680 Who knows?
00:55:32.480 Anyway, that's
00:55:33.320 all for now, and
00:55:34.680 I will talk to
00:55:35.240 you later tonight,
00:55:37.400 you know what
00:55:37.860 time, 10 p.m.
00:55:39.740 Eastern, 7 p.m.
00:55:41.560 Pacific, and I'll
00:55:42.800 talk to you then.