Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 03, 2020


Episode 888 Scott Adams： Swaddle Away Your Cares and Ease Into a Great Night of Sleep


Episode Stats

Length

48 minutes

Words per Minute

150.89658

Word Count

7,338

Sentence Count

443

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary

I was up at 3:30am to catch up on what's been going on in the past 24 hours, including the meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the press conference, and the press briefing. I also talk about how the task force is doing, and why I don't think it's as bad as people think it is.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Well, I don't know about you, but I'm drinking coffee late at night.
00:00:13.740 That's how I roll.
00:00:15.380 I was up this morning and started work at, I think, 2 a.m.
00:00:21.500 It's weird having complete control over your schedule.
00:00:24.700 If you'd like to simultaneously sip, I know this is swaddle time,
00:00:30.540 but I'm breaking the rules a little bit.
00:00:33.080 This would be the time.
00:00:34.700 Grab your cup, grab your mug, go.
00:00:41.500 Hmm.
00:00:44.600 Well, tell me, dear audience,
00:00:50.540 how many of you had an extra good night's sleep with my help?
00:00:57.020 So after I hypnotized those of you who stayed around to the end and were willing,
00:01:03.020 how many of you actually experienced an extra good night of sleep?
00:01:09.080 Tell me in the comments, and we'll see them.
00:01:11.680 It'll take a moment to catch up.
00:01:13.120 Swaddle Me Gently.
00:01:19.820 That should be the name of a movie.
00:01:23.300 He Swaddled Me Gently.
00:01:26.180 All right, let's do a little breakdown of the events since last I talked to you.
00:01:34.280 So we had another meeting of the task force, press conference,
00:01:39.700 and let me tell you how it went.
00:01:41.860 First of all, Mnuchin, Secretary Mnuchin, was really good.
00:01:48.400 Did you catch Mnuchin's presentation?
00:01:52.320 So he was talking about the financial side of it,
00:01:55.960 and I've got to say, it was really good.
00:01:59.920 So here's what was good about it.
00:02:01.700 He had a confident, sort of in-command way about him,
00:02:08.080 which is exactly what you want to hear.
00:02:10.300 You don't want to hear any dithering.
00:02:12.000 You don't want to hear him say, I'll have to ask somebody about that.
00:02:16.240 You don't want to hear him say, I'll look into it.
00:02:18.800 You know, you want him to just tell you what's a good idea
00:02:21.360 and tell you what he's doing and what the priorities are.
00:02:25.060 And I would say he nailed it.
00:02:27.300 So very strong from Mnuchin.
00:02:30.860 The other thing I liked about it in particular
00:02:32.820 is that he was specific where he could be.
00:02:36.420 So everywhere that he could give you a time estimate,
00:02:39.160 he would say, you know, we're going to try to do this in two weeks.
00:02:44.580 Normally it would take X months,
00:02:46.340 but we're going to really try to do it in two weeks.
00:02:48.660 Now, in a few cases, I believe he didn't have as much certainty,
00:02:51.900 but he still bounded it, which is exactly what you want.
00:02:55.680 Because that tells you that he knows what he's doing.
00:02:59.520 It's not that we have to manage him exactly,
00:03:02.680 and it's not that, you know, we're directly going to do something
00:03:05.620 if it's one answer or another.
00:03:06.840 But the fact that he knows, and he can say,
00:03:10.080 well, this is about two weeks, this one, you know,
00:03:12.680 we don't have a handle on it, but we've tried to do it in a month
00:03:14.960 or whatever he said.
00:03:16.060 But he basically, he bounded everything.
00:03:18.720 He put an estimate on everything, and he put a boundary on everything,
00:03:22.020 and then he told you what he would do if the boundary was exceeded.
00:03:26.460 So in the case of, I forget which part of the plan he was talking about,
00:03:30.920 he said, and if we need more,
00:03:32.980 then we'll go back in, you know, phase four and get it.
00:03:35.980 And I thought, okay, I now have a really good understanding
00:03:41.160 of the situation sufficient for my purposes as a citizen.
00:03:47.520 Because remember, we're all in this.
00:03:50.200 This is not a spectator sport.
00:03:52.940 The messages that our leaders are telling us,
00:03:56.700 our experts and our leaders,
00:03:58.420 are making us act differently in profound ways.
00:04:02.080 It's everything from closing down the economy
00:04:04.460 to don't wear masks, do wear masks,
00:04:07.700 don't hoard this, do hoard that,
00:04:09.680 you know, startup factories,
00:04:11.420 don't startup factories,
00:04:13.000 but mostly, I guess, startup factories.
00:04:15.440 So the information we give for our leaders
00:04:17.880 is absolutely making lots of us act differently
00:04:21.580 so it matters that they're saying it right.
00:04:23.340 Now, I do not have as high a grade
00:04:26.640 for the rest of the presentation.
00:04:30.720 I'm not going to single anybody out,
00:04:33.100 but I don't know how many times I have to say this,
00:04:35.540 and I guess, based on a lot of comments
00:04:38.380 that I got on Twitter,
00:04:39.920 there are a number of you who don't understand
00:04:41.780 why I'm so worked up about the fact
00:04:43.820 that the task force is not clearly telling us
00:04:47.560 this is how much we need of everything,
00:04:49.820 this is how much we think we have,
00:04:53.080 and this is how much we're producing
00:04:54.600 to, you know, fill in any gaps.
00:04:57.060 Now, some people have said to me,
00:04:59.240 quite reasonably,
00:05:00.880 if, you know, and here's a perfect example
00:05:03.100 of how, if your skill stack does not include,
00:05:07.840 let's say, business and economics
00:05:09.260 or finance or anything,
00:05:10.940 it's a perfectly reasonable question,
00:05:14.260 what's the difference?
00:05:16.020 Because it's going to be what it's going to be, right?
00:05:18.460 If it's bad, it's bad.
00:05:19.540 If it's good, it's good.
00:05:20.400 They're trying as hard as they can.
00:05:21.920 It's not like anybody's dragging their feet, right?
00:05:24.480 They're trying as hard as they can.
00:05:25.800 It's going to be what it's going to be.
00:05:27.320 What's the difference if you and I
00:05:29.580 know how close they are?
00:05:32.980 There's a big difference.
00:05:34.920 And it's not obvious.
00:05:36.920 I don't think it would be obvious to everybody.
00:05:38.940 So let me explain it to you.
00:05:41.620 And I think everybody who's got any kind of background
00:05:43.900 in business or economics
00:05:45.320 will agree with what I'm going to say.
00:05:47.560 Which is that expectations are really important
00:05:52.740 and we are acting differently
00:05:54.720 depending on what they tell us.
00:05:56.560 For example, would Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy,
00:06:02.180 would he convert his factories to make, I think, masks?
00:06:06.620 I think he's making masks.
00:06:08.480 Would he do that if he knew that we were 95% there?
00:06:14.200 Yeah, we're within striking distance.
00:06:16.100 Would he have changed his whole factory over to make masks
00:06:18.900 if he knew we were almost there anyway?
00:06:22.020 Probably not, right?
00:06:23.040 I mean, that's a big, big, big investment
00:06:26.840 by him and his employees and everything else.
00:06:29.740 And so if we were 10% of the way there,
00:06:33.480 and it really is an enormous national emergency
00:06:38.700 as opposed to an average emergency
00:06:41.080 or kind of one we almost have under control,
00:06:45.000 it's a gigantic difference.
00:06:47.020 How much pressure would we, the citizens,
00:06:49.620 put on our government
00:06:51.220 if you knew that we were only 10% of the way there?
00:06:54.600 You'd put a lot of pressure on.
00:06:58.120 In fact, you would say,
00:06:59.860 you need to stop everything else you're doing
00:07:02.180 and make sure that the healthcare professionals
00:07:05.780 get the right protective equipment.
00:07:07.880 You wouldn't even let them finish the press conference
00:07:10.220 if the number was 10%, right?
00:07:14.120 But if the number is, let's say, 60%,
00:07:17.540 would you act differently?
00:07:20.880 Well, you might.
00:07:21.920 You might.
00:07:22.460 You might not try to hoard
00:07:23.700 because you know it's really going to kill somebody
00:07:25.680 in actuality.
00:07:27.120 Somebody actually could die if you hoard some stuff.
00:07:29.920 So it might change how you act.
00:07:32.360 It might change whether you get involved
00:07:34.360 in trying to make some masks yourself.
00:07:36.880 It might change your behavior in lots of different ways.
00:07:40.200 But here's the thing.
00:07:42.180 The most important thing you would do
00:07:43.900 is if we know how close we are
00:07:46.280 to meeting our needs for those basics,
00:07:48.780 the healthcare professional front-line basics,
00:07:51.360 especially ventilators,
00:07:52.660 if we knew how close we were,
00:07:55.100 that would also give us a lot more visibility
00:07:58.700 on when we get back to work, right?
00:08:03.000 Because if we have enough ventilators,
00:08:05.080 not as many people will die.
00:08:07.200 And so as the number of people who die goes down,
00:08:10.260 that's going to be the metric.
00:08:11.440 It's not going to be the number of people who get it.
00:08:13.780 It's going to be more than the number of people who die.
00:08:16.280 So as we get a hold of, you know,
00:08:17.960 as we build up our hydroxychloroquine,
00:08:20.840 our masks, our ventilators,
00:08:22.900 the number of people who will die
00:08:24.700 should be predicted to go down,
00:08:27.700 you know, in a predictable fashion.
00:08:29.520 And that should also give you much better visibility
00:08:32.000 of when the economy gets back on its feet.
00:08:35.200 Now, why is that important?
00:08:37.080 Well, let me explain something about the economy
00:08:39.520 that you probably have never heard,
00:08:41.880 except maybe from me if I've said it before,
00:08:44.780 which is the economy is best understood
00:08:47.460 as a set of ideas and thoughts.
00:08:52.040 The economy exists in our minds,
00:08:54.620 our collective minds.
00:08:56.340 And here's what I mean.
00:08:57.120 If I don't trust you to pay me,
00:09:02.280 we can't make a deal.
00:09:04.980 Or it'd be so hard that you wouldn't have much of an economy.
00:09:08.500 So one of the things that is the collective idea
00:09:11.700 is that you don't cheat the other person.
00:09:15.300 And part of the collective idea is
00:09:16.840 if the more visibility that you have,
00:09:18.920 the less likely somebody is going to try it anyway.
00:09:20.940 So the best economies are,
00:09:24.100 and this is no coincidence,
00:09:26.000 the ones where there's the most built-in trust.
00:09:29.760 For the most part,
00:09:31.360 let's say you're in the United States,
00:09:33.500 for the most part,
00:09:34.440 if you're just buying a good or a service,
00:09:37.280 you think most of the time
00:09:38.500 you're going to get what you paid for.
00:09:40.260 Every now and then,
00:09:41.180 something bad will happen.
00:09:42.880 But the fact that there's a general understanding
00:09:46.120 that there's a trust
00:09:48.040 and everybody's watching
00:09:49.500 is what builds an economy.
00:09:51.280 But also,
00:09:51.940 as somebody said in the comments,
00:09:53.020 the expectations.
00:09:54.240 If you expect things to be good tomorrow,
00:09:56.860 and that's just a mental state,
00:09:58.740 it's just your expectation,
00:10:00.460 then you will invest today.
00:10:02.780 And it's that investing today
00:10:04.300 that makes it possible
00:10:06.080 for things to be good tomorrow.
00:10:08.160 So the entire economy
00:10:09.340 is the outgrowth
00:10:11.140 of a set of mental expectations.
00:10:16.460 And here's where I'm going with this.
00:10:18.060 This set of mental expectations,
00:10:21.020 which have been intricately designed over time
00:10:25.460 to hold together,
00:10:28.080 require that the real world
00:10:29.860 is also part of the action.
00:10:32.020 Because you don't think about the mental part too much
00:10:35.160 if you're actually going to work
00:10:37.020 and making money
00:10:37.720 and buying things
00:10:38.620 and making profits and stuff.
00:10:41.140 You think that's the stuff.
00:10:43.080 You think it's the goods
00:10:44.160 and the things you're moving
00:10:45.460 and the money that's going back and forth.
00:10:47.360 But that's just the outcome.
00:10:49.200 That's just the result
00:10:50.400 of having a well-designed mental model,
00:10:53.660 which is the strength
00:10:55.680 of the United States.
00:10:57.460 So I would say that
00:10:58.500 if you combine the mental models
00:11:00.120 of our patriotism
00:11:01.520 and national preferences,
00:11:03.800 if you will,
00:11:04.760 with the mental models
00:11:05.780 of capitalism and fairness
00:11:07.560 and just who we are as a people,
00:11:10.740 those are the structures
00:11:12.000 that have to be solid
00:11:14.960 for everything else to work.
00:11:16.860 because there would be
00:11:18.580 nobody buying and selling anything
00:11:20.680 and there would be no economy
00:11:22.980 physically
00:11:23.860 except for those mental models
00:11:26.160 that we all share.
00:11:27.120 Now here's the important part.
00:11:29.580 We're not all equally
00:11:31.660 contributing
00:11:33.160 to the existence
00:11:34.760 of the mental model.
00:11:37.280 Meaning that most of you
00:11:38.660 don't need to know
00:11:39.520 anything I'm talking about.
00:11:41.220 You just need to know
00:11:42.280 that there is an economy
00:11:43.200 and you could go to work.
00:11:45.080 But there has to be
00:11:46.380 some critical mass of people
00:11:48.160 who think substantially
00:11:50.500 the way I'm thinking,
00:11:52.000 which is that the economy
00:11:53.320 is the way you act
00:11:54.320 and the set of thoughts.
00:11:55.780 And those have to be solid.
00:11:57.380 They have to be well-designed thoughts
00:11:59.640 that are engineered
00:12:00.560 to work well together.
00:12:01.880 Just like capitalism,
00:12:03.280 just like democracy,
00:12:04.360 the republic,
00:12:05.020 those are well-engineered thoughts.
00:12:08.340 Now, the biggest challenge,
00:12:13.520 I believe,
00:12:14.360 between where we are now
00:12:16.140 and getting back
00:12:17.620 to solid economic footing
00:12:19.460 is that we don't lose
00:12:21.480 our mental model
00:12:22.480 while we have paused
00:12:24.680 the physical world.
00:12:26.840 The physical world
00:12:28.220 can actually take a pause
00:12:30.160 if your mental model
00:12:32.040 stays intact.
00:12:33.540 Because most of the things
00:12:34.780 that will need to be,
00:12:35.740 you know,
00:12:36.320 primed again
00:12:37.040 and pumped up,
00:12:38.300 we know how to do that.
00:12:39.740 It's all part of our mental model.
00:12:41.180 So unless the mental model breaks,
00:12:44.880 and one of the ways
00:12:45.540 it could break,
00:12:46.160 for example,
00:12:46.800 just to give you
00:12:47.500 some concrete example,
00:12:49.420 it could be that
00:12:50.160 half of the country says,
00:12:51.440 I think we need socialism.
00:12:53.860 And then half of the country
00:12:55.300 would be supporting
00:12:56.600 a different model
00:12:57.680 in their head
00:12:58.360 and it would start to conflict
00:12:59.960 with the common model
00:13:01.080 and then the physical world
00:13:02.740 would start to reflect
00:13:03.720 that conflict
00:13:04.600 and that might not be good.
00:13:06.260 Could be good.
00:13:07.040 Could be just a transition
00:13:08.580 to something better.
00:13:10.200 But at the very least
00:13:11.340 it would introduce some risk.
00:13:13.960 So here's the point.
00:13:16.320 People who understand
00:13:17.420 the economy
00:13:18.080 and understand business,
00:13:19.140 if you look at their comments
00:13:20.340 to this,
00:13:21.220 you'll often see
00:13:22.240 that they're tending
00:13:23.180 toward the optimistic
00:13:24.360 or tell you,
00:13:25.520 you know,
00:13:25.860 well,
00:13:26.600 we'll lose this much,
00:13:27.980 which might be scary.
00:13:29.720 But it's not necessarily
00:13:31.380 the end of the world.
00:13:32.440 The people who are telling you
00:13:33.340 it's going to be
00:13:33.800 the end of the world
00:13:34.780 are the people
00:13:36.160 who don't understand economics.
00:13:38.580 And it's not because
00:13:39.600 they don't understand it.
00:13:41.440 In other words,
00:13:42.200 they're not describing it wrong
00:13:43.680 because of a lack
00:13:44.460 of understanding.
00:13:45.260 That might also be happening.
00:13:46.780 But rather,
00:13:47.620 if you're an artist,
00:13:48.780 a writer,
00:13:49.320 a journalist,
00:13:50.960 but not an economist,
00:13:52.240 a business person,
00:13:53.260 a finance person,
00:13:54.660 then you say to yourself,
00:13:56.140 what does my job require?
00:13:58.680 And your job requires interest.
00:14:00.820 You want your reader
00:14:01.480 to be interested.
00:14:03.400 And so you'll tell a story
00:14:04.500 that's really scary
00:14:05.460 about the next big depression
00:14:07.320 and it's the worst things
00:14:09.480 that the worst things
00:14:10.780 will ever be.
00:14:11.960 And you think,
00:14:13.020 well,
00:14:13.180 I'm just telling a story.
00:14:14.260 It's interesting.
00:14:15.080 It might be true.
00:14:16.000 I'm just saying
00:14:16.760 it might be true.
00:14:17.640 Worst case scenario.
00:14:18.600 That's fair, right?
00:14:20.740 But those stories
00:14:22.760 are deeply degrading
00:14:25.400 and damaging
00:14:26.420 to the set of ideas
00:14:28.360 that are well designed
00:14:29.720 and are just sort of
00:14:31.060 floating in space
00:14:33.180 held together
00:14:34.700 by the people
00:14:36.220 who understand this stuff.
00:14:38.420 And you need the people
00:14:39.680 who don't understand it
00:14:40.880 to take a vacation
00:14:42.480 and not try to break
00:14:44.860 the set of ideas
00:14:46.380 which are the strongest
00:14:47.880 set of ideas
00:14:48.600 in the history of humanity.
00:14:51.700 You know,
00:14:51.880 the things that,
00:14:52.680 you know,
00:14:53.560 give us,
00:14:54.080 you know,
00:14:54.340 equality,
00:14:55.400 the things that
00:14:56.140 give us,
00:14:57.400 you know,
00:14:57.920 competition,
00:14:58.480 free market stuff.
00:15:00.780 You know,
00:15:00.940 the set of ideas
00:15:02.020 which is us
00:15:03.300 is the strongest
00:15:04.980 set of ideas
00:15:05.700 ever engineered.
00:15:07.200 Not perfect.
00:15:08.520 Maybe we can do better.
00:15:10.120 But up to this point
00:15:10.920 in history,
00:15:11.440 it's the strongest
00:15:12.020 set of engineered
00:15:12.940 ideas of all time.
00:15:17.280 And we've got
00:15:18.100 to keep that together.
00:15:19.920 And what I'm suggesting
00:15:20.800 is that a big part
00:15:22.400 of keeping that together
00:15:23.360 is confidence.
00:15:25.340 And a big part
00:15:26.020 of confidence
00:15:26.640 is when your leaders
00:15:27.700 can give you
00:15:28.380 numbers and estimates.
00:15:30.820 So,
00:15:31.200 for example,
00:15:32.300 if you're,
00:15:33.060 if my leader said,
00:15:34.940 I guarantee you
00:15:36.620 that we'll be back
00:15:38.080 to work on,
00:15:38.920 I'll just pick a day,
00:15:40.520 June 1st,
00:15:41.960 then the economy
00:15:43.440 would say,
00:15:44.420 ah,
00:15:44.680 the idea of the economy
00:15:46.080 is solid now
00:15:46.940 because we just got
00:15:48.220 an expectation
00:15:49.080 and we need that.
00:15:50.080 That's our fuel,
00:15:51.480 the expectation.
00:15:52.720 So now you're solid
00:15:53.700 and now you can make it
00:15:55.240 to June 1st.
00:15:56.260 Now what happens
00:15:57.820 if June 1st comes
00:15:58.820 and the leaders say,
00:16:00.580 ah,
00:16:01.200 too soon.
00:16:02.980 It's going to be July.
00:16:05.320 Still okay.
00:16:07.260 Still okay.
00:16:08.660 Because you went from,
00:16:10.240 you know,
00:16:10.480 a sense of
00:16:11.240 some idea
00:16:12.520 where you're going,
00:16:13.340 gave you some confidence,
00:16:14.780 didn't work out.
00:16:15.820 But that's how
00:16:16.400 capitalism works.
00:16:17.500 Lots of things
00:16:18.000 don't work out.
00:16:19.320 Companies fail.
00:16:20.720 Capitalism is a big
00:16:21.580 failure engine
00:16:22.360 that only works
00:16:23.540 on average.
00:16:26.820 And so we could
00:16:27.540 basically
00:16:28.620 reach a point
00:16:30.540 where our
00:16:31.580 expectation of things
00:16:33.400 could decide
00:16:34.220 what the future is.
00:16:35.180 It's the power
00:16:35.580 of positive thinking.
00:16:36.640 When it comes to economics,
00:16:38.040 it's real.
00:16:39.420 You know,
00:16:39.620 the power of positive thinking
00:16:40.720 is sort of
00:16:41.980 the magical version
00:16:43.300 that you can,
00:16:43.940 you know,
00:16:44.620 wish yourself
00:16:45.440 into a reality.
00:16:47.600 Now,
00:16:48.500 I'm not going to claim
00:16:49.620 that any of that's
00:16:50.520 provable
00:16:51.540 in any kind
00:16:52.160 of a scientific way
00:16:53.160 or even true
00:16:54.000 in any way
00:16:54.580 that you would
00:16:55.480 think of things
00:16:56.300 to be true.
00:16:57.700 I do know
00:16:58.460 it seems like it's true.
00:17:00.000 Those of us
00:17:00.820 who practice it
00:17:01.640 become presidents
00:17:03.340 and famous cartoonists
00:17:04.760 and stuff.
00:17:06.500 And it doesn't seem
00:17:07.620 like a coincidence
00:17:08.360 that the people
00:17:09.120 who have that mindset
00:17:09.980 tend to be
00:17:12.100 more successful.
00:17:13.360 And I'm suggesting
00:17:14.260 that the people
00:17:14.920 who have that mindset
00:17:15.980 your president
00:17:18.140 is one of them.
00:17:19.680 I'm very optimistic.
00:17:21.740 I'm trying
00:17:22.540 to be one of them.
00:17:24.400 And thousands
00:17:25.700 of other people
00:17:26.500 who are like-minded
00:17:27.700 who understand
00:17:28.880 that the economy
00:17:29.920 is a psychology engine.
00:17:33.080 And if we don't
00:17:33.940 keep that 100%,
00:17:36.300 it doesn't matter
00:17:37.680 what's happening
00:17:38.380 with our physical assets.
00:17:40.000 We won't be ready
00:17:40.800 when the time comes.
00:17:42.840 So,
00:17:43.340 we need our task force
00:17:44.560 to give us
00:17:45.220 their best estimates
00:17:46.940 of how close
00:17:48.100 they'll be
00:17:48.580 to averting
00:17:49.420 a gigantic
00:17:50.420 hospital
00:17:51.420 debacle
00:17:52.900 because of
00:17:53.680 lack of equipment.
00:17:54.940 If they say
00:17:55.860 that we're nowhere
00:17:56.480 near it,
00:17:57.660 then you and I
00:17:58.440 need to work harder.
00:18:00.080 Literally,
00:18:00.700 you and I
00:18:01.320 need to work harder.
00:18:03.140 Because if we're
00:18:03.740 sending our
00:18:04.660 first-line
00:18:05.520 hospital people
00:18:07.000 into battle
00:18:07.660 without weapons,
00:18:09.640 you and I
00:18:10.200 need to work harder.
00:18:11.260 There's something
00:18:11.600 we need to do.
00:18:12.480 Donate money,
00:18:13.840 find a friend,
00:18:14.640 make a connection,
00:18:16.020 build a mask.
00:18:16.840 I don't know.
00:18:18.000 It must be something
00:18:18.740 we could do,
00:18:19.460 push our politicians.
00:18:21.520 So, yeah,
00:18:22.020 we need to know,
00:18:23.440 are we 10%
00:18:24.320 of the way there,
00:18:25.120 30% of the way there
00:18:26.400 with a good chance
00:18:27.400 of closing the gap?
00:18:28.520 Are we 90% there
00:18:29.860 and full confidence
00:18:30.960 we'll close it
00:18:31.640 and we're going to
00:18:32.380 keep making stuff
00:18:33.120 so we can help
00:18:33.820 people in other countries?
00:18:35.300 Wouldn't that be great?
00:18:36.520 And by the way,
00:18:37.120 all you'd have to do
00:18:38.620 is tell me
00:18:39.260 that we're going
00:18:40.620 to make enough
00:18:41.160 for us,
00:18:42.260 but we're going
00:18:43.140 to go gangbusters
00:18:44.240 to make enough
00:18:45.000 for the rest
00:18:45.440 of the world.
00:18:47.040 You know,
00:18:47.440 if my government
00:18:48.060 just told me that,
00:18:50.140 I would have
00:18:51.200 a much better sense
00:18:52.300 of how we're going
00:18:53.060 to get to the end
00:18:53.640 of this.
00:18:54.300 That would give me
00:18:55.140 some confidence
00:18:55.920 and visibility
00:18:56.860 about the future
00:18:57.800 and that would allow
00:18:58.960 me to be one
00:18:59.600 of the people
00:19:00.040 who can support
00:19:01.000 this idea
00:19:03.800 machine
00:19:05.300 that is the economy.
00:19:07.120 So I'm trying
00:19:07.880 to do the very
00:19:08.400 best I can
00:19:08.980 and I realize
00:19:09.540 that if you
00:19:11.720 did not have
00:19:12.300 a background
00:19:12.740 in some of this
00:19:14.500 stuff,
00:19:14.880 economics and business,
00:19:16.000 it would not be
00:19:16.720 obvious whatsoever
00:19:17.760 that getting the way
00:19:19.780 we think about it
00:19:20.780 is actually important
00:19:22.120 to the outcome.
00:19:23.760 It's just,
00:19:24.460 it is the outcome.
00:19:26.020 The outcome
00:19:26.520 is nothing but,
00:19:28.560 in terms of
00:19:29.120 the economics,
00:19:31.060 the way this
00:19:32.400 turns out
00:19:33.100 is almost
00:19:34.660 entirely a function
00:19:35.780 of how we
00:19:36.560 collectively
00:19:37.780 expect it
00:19:38.680 to turn out
00:19:39.880 and we could
00:19:40.900 literally
00:19:41.480 will the economy
00:19:43.460 into a stronger
00:19:44.440 place.
00:19:45.640 Now,
00:19:45.840 I don't mean
00:19:46.140 in magic ways,
00:19:48.120 you know,
00:19:48.340 nothing like,
00:19:49.120 you know,
00:19:49.700 new agey or anything.
00:19:51.100 I'm saying that
00:19:52.060 our expectations
00:19:53.120 is what causes
00:19:54.480 us to act
00:19:55.100 in certain ways
00:19:55.940 and we can simply
00:19:57.260 tune our expectation
00:19:58.620 to a positive outcome
00:20:00.500 and the odds
00:20:01.300 of that
00:20:01.740 translating into
00:20:02.920 an actual
00:20:03.300 positive outcome
00:20:04.160 or about 100%
00:20:05.840 because that's
00:20:06.940 what it is.
00:20:07.820 The economy
00:20:08.380 is nothing but
00:20:09.120 those expectations
00:20:10.480 played out
00:20:12.320 in the physical
00:20:12.800 world.
00:20:13.780 Probably said
00:20:14.460 enough about that.
00:20:15.200 I was looking
00:20:19.320 at the
00:20:19.820 death counts.
00:20:22.200 So I go to
00:20:23.240 world
00:20:23.960 worldometer
00:20:25.300 worldometer.com
00:20:29.100 worldometer
00:20:29.880 and it's got
00:20:31.340 some
00:20:31.820 good
00:20:32.900 statistics
00:20:33.900 well,
00:20:34.480 they're all bad
00:20:34.960 I suppose
00:20:35.380 about
00:20:36.180 coronavirus
00:20:37.340 and
00:20:38.920 I got a
00:20:39.680 question
00:20:40.300 because it
00:20:41.620 looked like
00:20:42.040 the total
00:20:42.820 number of
00:20:43.320 deaths in
00:20:43.780 the United
00:20:44.100 States
00:20:44.620 is flattening.
00:20:47.640 Can anybody
00:20:48.360 confirm that?
00:20:52.880 So I think
00:20:53.700 the deaths
00:20:54.440 in the United
00:20:54.940 States are
00:20:55.400 over 6,000
00:20:56.320 but I need
00:20:58.580 a confirmation
00:20:59.220 of this.
00:20:59.720 I think that
00:21:00.120 yesterday the
00:21:00.780 total number
00:21:01.360 of deaths
00:21:01.780 in the United
00:21:02.220 States
00:21:02.620 from coronavirus
00:21:03.760 was 1,049.
00:21:06.580 Just before
00:21:07.400 I signed on
00:21:08.300 and of course
00:21:09.400 today is not
00:21:10.120 over
00:21:10.460 but let's
00:21:11.560 say today
00:21:13.040 is 90%
00:21:13.820 over
00:21:14.180 because most
00:21:15.880 of the cases
00:21:16.400 are on the
00:21:16.840 East Coast
00:21:17.400 and the
00:21:17.680 East Coast
00:21:18.000 just has
00:21:18.500 a couple
00:21:19.260 hours left
00:21:19.960 before it's
00:21:22.920 tomorrow.
00:21:24.160 So the
00:21:25.400 number is
00:21:25.800 968 today
00:21:27.480 as of a
00:21:28.220 few minutes
00:21:28.560 ago.
00:21:29.900 So that's
00:21:30.520 under
00:21:31.000 yesterday's
00:21:32.940 count.
00:21:33.500 So yesterday
00:21:34.320 was 1,049.
00:21:36.100 Day's not
00:21:36.820 over but it's
00:21:37.420 almost over
00:21:38.080 and we're
00:21:39.080 under that
00:21:39.560 number.
00:21:42.240 Does that
00:21:42.660 she has
00:21:44.800 only
00:21:45.060 I'm looking
00:21:46.220 at your
00:21:46.460 comments to
00:21:47.000 see if
00:21:47.240 anybody has
00:21:47.800 some comments
00:21:48.340 because it
00:21:50.080 looks like
00:21:50.920 it started
00:21:51.700 to go
00:21:52.080 flat.
00:21:53.740 Is that
00:21:54.160 can anybody
00:21:56.500 confirm that?
00:21:57.800 Now it
00:21:58.640 should be
00:21:59.080 said that
00:22:00.760 you know
00:22:01.500 one day's
00:22:02.240 number doesn't
00:22:04.060 mean much.
00:22:06.160 So you'd
00:22:06.780 have to wait
00:22:07.180 for several
00:22:07.700 days to
00:22:08.140 know if
00:22:08.420 there's
00:22:08.660 anything
00:22:08.880 like a
00:22:09.220 trend.
00:22:11.160 They
00:22:11.760 changed on
00:22:12.860 the daily
00:22:15.320 count stops
00:22:16.000 at midnight
00:22:16.700 GMT.
00:22:20.940 So is
00:22:22.740 today the
00:22:23.280 day?
00:22:25.660 Is today
00:22:26.280 the day?
00:22:28.860 Maybe.
00:22:31.720 Let me
00:22:32.440 remind you
00:22:33.020 of my
00:22:33.360 prediction
00:22:33.740 because I
00:22:34.760 think I
00:22:35.060 have the
00:22:35.300 most
00:22:35.580 contrarian
00:22:36.460 prediction.
00:22:37.700 because the
00:22:38.480 predictions
00:22:38.860 tend to
00:22:39.360 be it's
00:22:40.360 going to
00:22:40.520 be hundreds
00:22:41.040 of thousands
00:22:41.500 of people,
00:22:42.300 it's going
00:22:42.600 to be
00:22:42.740 terrible,
00:22:43.740 and some
00:22:44.100 people say
00:22:44.620 it's no
00:22:45.640 worse than
00:22:46.000 the flu,
00:22:46.760 and it's
00:22:47.320 going to be
00:22:47.780 nothing,
00:22:48.260 we should
00:22:48.620 have gone
00:22:48.880 back to
00:22:49.260 work.
00:22:49.480 my take
00:22:51.300 is that it's
00:22:52.340 probably
00:22:52.940 exactly as
00:22:54.280 dangerous as
00:22:54.720 dangerous as
00:22:55.940 experts are
00:22:56.520 saying.
00:22:57.300 I mean,
00:22:57.720 they may be
00:22:58.200 off by a
00:22:58.660 factor of
00:22:59.120 five,
00:22:59.500 but it's
00:22:59.860 still in
00:23:00.180 the super
00:23:01.100 dangerous
00:23:01.620 category.
00:23:02.560 So I think
00:23:02.880 that's true.
00:23:04.220 But I think
00:23:04.980 that we will
00:23:05.420 be so good
00:23:06.420 at combating
00:23:08.860 it that we'll
00:23:11.100 surprise
00:23:11.440 ourselves and
00:23:12.360 that the
00:23:12.700 total net
00:23:13.560 number of
00:23:14.140 deaths will
00:23:14.560 be under
00:23:14.880 5,000.
00:23:16.080 Now you say
00:23:16.580 to yourself,
00:23:17.120 but Scott,
00:23:17.560 it's already
00:23:18.000 6,000.
00:23:19.640 And it's
00:23:20.260 not done.
00:23:20.960 It's not
00:23:21.460 even close
00:23:21.900 to done.
00:23:22.800 So why
00:23:23.400 would you
00:23:23.680 say it's
00:23:24.240 going to
00:23:24.380 be 5,000
00:23:25.140 if it's
00:23:26.300 already 6,000?
00:23:27.400 And the
00:23:27.640 answer is
00:23:28.100 I'm talking
00:23:28.820 about net,
00:23:30.420 meaning that
00:23:31.000 you have to
00:23:31.360 count the
00:23:31.760 number of
00:23:32.240 people that
00:23:32.720 we saved
00:23:34.240 by keeping
00:23:35.900 people off
00:23:36.400 the streets,
00:23:37.020 which turns
00:23:37.560 out to be a
00:23:38.060 pretty big
00:23:38.380 number,
00:23:38.960 and is
00:23:39.200 bigger than
00:23:40.080 the coronavirus
00:23:40.840 death number
00:23:41.580 at the
00:23:42.000 moment.
00:23:42.900 Now,
00:23:43.280 in theory,
00:23:44.600 if the
00:23:45.780 experts are
00:23:46.480 right,
00:23:46.740 the coronavirus
00:23:47.320 deaths will
00:23:48.560 pass the
00:23:49.920 number that
00:23:50.400 we're saving
00:23:50.900 by keeping
00:23:51.540 people off
00:23:52.040 the roads
00:23:52.480 and away
00:23:53.800 from hiking
00:23:55.340 accidents and
00:23:56.220 stuff like
00:23:56.600 that,
00:23:57.480 at some
00:23:58.880 point it'll
00:23:59.280 cross,
00:23:59.900 but I'm
00:24:00.200 predicting that
00:24:00.980 we'll have
00:24:01.660 enough days
00:24:03.140 before that's
00:24:03.820 going to
00:24:04.020 happen to
00:24:06.780 actually get
00:24:07.420 on top of
00:24:07.920 it,
00:24:08.840 meaning that
00:24:09.860 the hydroxychloroquine
00:24:11.400 might work,
00:24:12.180 there might be
00:24:12.580 something else
00:24:13.080 that works,
00:24:13.760 maybe the
00:24:14.140 testing will
00:24:14.680 become more
00:24:15.920 ubiquitous,
00:24:16.760 maybe we
00:24:17.240 figure something
00:24:18.080 else out,
00:24:18.940 but that's
00:24:20.260 where I'm
00:24:20.600 at on
00:24:20.900 that.
00:24:21.780 All right.
00:24:26.160 What about
00:24:26.920 suicides?
00:24:28.460 Well,
00:24:29.900 I wonder.
00:24:31.480 I'm not
00:24:32.160 entirely sure
00:24:33.040 that there
00:24:33.460 will be more
00:24:33.980 of them.
00:24:35.200 I think we
00:24:36.020 can guarantee
00:24:36.660 that whenever
00:24:37.620 there's a
00:24:38.080 change of
00:24:38.620 any kind,
00:24:40.040 people will
00:24:40.900 react to it.
00:24:41.680 So here's
00:24:42.400 what I would
00:24:42.800 expect.
00:24:43.640 I can't
00:24:44.220 guarantee
00:24:44.520 this,
00:24:45.420 but here's
00:24:45.780 what I
00:24:46.020 expect.
00:24:46.420 I'll bet
00:24:47.640 you the
00:24:48.300 number of
00:24:49.480 suicides
00:24:50.140 goes down,
00:24:51.640 while at
00:24:52.400 the same
00:24:52.780 time I
00:24:53.320 will acknowledge
00:24:54.060 that there
00:24:55.200 might be
00:24:55.600 people who
00:24:56.260 will kill
00:24:57.180 themselves
00:24:57.740 who might
00:24:59.480 not have.
00:25:00.840 But I think
00:25:01.480 that the
00:25:01.800 net will be
00:25:02.400 positive.
00:25:03.680 Now some
00:25:04.000 of it might
00:25:04.420 be just that
00:25:05.060 we're forced
00:25:05.640 to be in
00:25:06.020 the same
00:25:06.320 quarters.
00:25:07.700 So I
00:25:08.540 would think
00:25:08.940 you need a
00:25:09.440 little bit
00:25:09.860 of privacy
00:25:10.460 to do
00:25:11.060 something like
00:25:11.640 that.
00:25:12.000 So one
00:25:13.660 of the
00:25:13.880 effects is
00:25:14.480 that people
00:25:15.000 just won't
00:25:15.480 have privacy
00:25:16.140 for a
00:25:16.520 while.
00:25:17.540 One of
00:25:17.980 the effects
00:25:18.360 might be
00:25:18.840 that people
00:25:19.320 feel connected
00:25:20.120 to other
00:25:20.520 people in
00:25:21.040 a way that
00:25:21.420 they didn't
00:25:21.760 feel before.
00:25:23.620 Maybe people
00:25:24.400 are just more
00:25:24.860 afraid of
00:25:25.500 the world
00:25:27.320 than they
00:25:27.660 are of
00:25:27.940 their own
00:25:28.240 little problems
00:25:28.900 for a
00:25:29.200 while.
00:25:30.080 So if I
00:25:30.860 had to
00:25:31.080 guess,
00:25:33.100 I think
00:25:34.000 we'll be
00:25:34.680 better on
00:25:35.100 that metric
00:25:35.600 as well.
00:25:38.300 If it's
00:25:38.960 up,
00:25:39.380 will you
00:25:39.740 lump that
00:25:40.340 in your
00:25:40.800 net?
00:25:41.080 Well,
00:25:41.740 it all
00:25:41.980 has to
00:25:42.280 be lumped.
00:25:43.560 If it's
00:25:44.540 something we
00:25:45.080 can measure
00:25:45.700 or even
00:25:46.220 estimate with
00:25:47.180 some reasonable
00:25:47.840 estimate,
00:25:49.840 net is
00:25:50.840 net.
00:25:51.900 So you
00:25:52.560 don't have
00:25:52.900 to ask me
00:25:53.300 other questions
00:25:54.120 about is
00:25:54.760 this in
00:25:55.220 the number
00:25:55.600 or is it
00:25:56.080 not.
00:25:57.320 If we
00:25:57.900 can measure
00:25:58.440 it as
00:25:59.240 part of
00:25:59.740 did people
00:26:00.660 die or
00:26:01.120 did they
00:26:01.400 not,
00:26:02.260 then yeah,
00:26:02.700 of course.
00:26:03.940 It doesn't
00:26:04.400 matter if I
00:26:04.860 thought of
00:26:05.300 it yet.
00:26:05.880 If you
00:26:06.180 think of
00:26:06.620 something
00:26:06.900 else that
00:26:08.440 could be in
00:26:08.880 that number,
00:26:09.300 yeah,
00:26:09.500 that counts
00:26:09.900 too.
00:26:10.140 whichever way
00:26:11.340 it goes.
00:26:12.620 That's how
00:26:13.180 it works.
00:26:15.520 All right.
00:26:17.680 We need
00:26:18.340 a gross
00:26:18.740 prediction
00:26:19.160 because net
00:26:19.840 is impossible
00:26:20.520 to calculate.
00:26:22.520 No,
00:26:22.740 it isn't.
00:26:23.840 No,
00:26:24.140 we'll be able
00:26:24.520 to calculate
00:26:24.960 that because,
00:26:26.800 now,
00:26:27.480 of course,
00:26:28.240 not with
00:26:28.820 the certainty
00:26:29.740 of,
00:26:30.340 you know,
00:26:32.060 precision like
00:26:33.160 a rocket.
00:26:34.480 A rocket
00:26:35.100 needs to be
00:26:35.640 precise.
00:26:36.040 But we
00:26:36.960 know,
00:26:37.500 for example,
00:26:38.380 on any
00:26:39.160 given week
00:26:40.480 of the
00:26:40.780 year,
00:26:41.080 how many
00:26:41.360 people are
00:26:41.780 likely to
00:26:42.320 die in
00:26:42.860 drunk driving
00:26:43.980 accidents.
00:26:45.240 So all
00:26:45.660 you'd have to
00:26:46.080 do is say,
00:26:46.660 well,
00:26:47.080 let's say this
00:26:47.820 year isn't
00:26:48.360 going to be
00:26:48.680 that much
00:26:49.060 different than
00:26:49.620 the last
00:26:50.340 three years.
00:26:52.000 How do we
00:26:52.600 do?
00:26:53.500 And you say,
00:26:54.080 oh,
00:26:54.520 we're down on
00:26:55.320 that by
00:26:55.820 10,000
00:26:56.800 people.
00:26:58.520 Coronavirus
00:26:59.000 deaths are
00:26:59.800 up by
00:27:00.260 15,000
00:27:01.500 or whatever.
00:27:05.120 Net is
00:27:05.820 not valid.
00:27:07.080 Net is
00:27:07.560 the only
00:27:07.940 thing that's
00:27:08.420 valid.
00:27:09.500 Because if
00:27:10.160 you make
00:27:10.480 a decision
00:27:10.980 which affects
00:27:11.880 all of
00:27:12.420 those other
00:27:12.860 things,
00:27:14.000 you can't
00:27:14.680 not count
00:27:15.460 all the
00:27:15.940 other things
00:27:16.380 that got
00:27:16.680 affected.
00:27:17.740 It's got
00:27:18.260 to be
00:27:18.460 lumped in
00:27:18.840 there.
00:27:21.080 I've
00:27:21.520 asked 100
00:27:21.920 times how
00:27:22.860 you're going
00:27:23.220 to measure
00:27:23.920 metrics.
00:27:25.900 Well,
00:27:26.380 I just
00:27:26.640 told you.
00:27:28.100 You would
00:27:28.660 just estimate
00:27:29.200 based on
00:27:29.840 prior years
00:27:31.000 and then
00:27:32.700 count up
00:27:33.160 the
00:27:33.340 coronavirus
00:27:33.880 deaths
00:27:34.340 and
00:27:34.740 bada
00:27:35.500 bang,
00:27:35.760 you got
00:27:36.060 it.
00:27:41.800 I like
00:27:42.640 when stocks
00:27:43.180 are up.
00:27:44.240 So the
00:27:44.480 thing you
00:27:44.840 should,
00:27:45.560 here's one
00:27:46.160 of these
00:27:46.440 little
00:27:46.660 predictive
00:27:47.140 things that
00:27:47.740 will drive
00:27:48.100 you crazy.
00:27:49.840 On any
00:27:50.620 day when
00:27:51.020 the stocks
00:27:51.900 are sharply
00:27:52.540 up,
00:27:53.720 there's more
00:27:54.320 chance that
00:27:55.040 tomorrow is
00:27:55.600 going to be
00:27:55.940 sharply down.
00:27:57.220 It's probably
00:27:57.600 like two to
00:27:58.140 one and
00:27:59.280 then vice
00:27:59.760 versa.
00:28:00.340 When it's
00:28:00.760 down,
00:28:01.300 there's probably
00:28:01.620 a two to
00:28:02.020 one chance
00:28:02.600 that it'll
00:28:03.540 at least
00:28:03.960 be up a
00:28:04.800 little bit
00:28:05.140 the next
00:28:05.480 day.
00:28:06.340 So you
00:28:07.280 could still
00:28:08.080 have a
00:28:08.360 run of
00:28:08.840 five days
00:28:10.920 in a row
00:28:11.280 that's down,
00:28:12.180 so that's
00:28:12.780 not ruled
00:28:13.260 out.
00:28:13.680 I'm just
00:28:13.920 saying it's
00:28:14.660 one of
00:28:14.880 those general
00:28:15.780 patterns that
00:28:16.440 you see a
00:28:16.780 lot.
00:28:23.440 Net is
00:28:24.340 100% valid.
00:28:25.240 Thank
00:28:25.880 you.
00:28:27.460 Can we
00:28:27.880 talk about
00:28:28.320 Jared Kushner?
00:28:30.180 Let's
00:28:30.420 talk about
00:28:30.840 Jared Kushner.
00:28:32.080 Personally,
00:28:32.880 I feel more
00:28:33.600 comfortable
00:28:34.040 whenever he's
00:28:35.080 on the
00:28:36.260 case.
00:28:38.400 He,
00:28:39.620 and I
00:28:40.140 don't remember
00:28:41.060 him talking
00:28:41.680 at the
00:28:42.200 task forces
00:28:42.980 before,
00:28:43.740 so I'm
00:28:44.720 generally
00:28:45.040 confident
00:28:45.560 that things
00:28:46.900 are going
00:28:47.160 to be done
00:28:47.620 rationally
00:28:48.900 and,
00:28:49.940 let's say,
00:28:51.360 with kindness
00:28:52.500 when he's
00:28:53.740 on the
00:28:54.020 case,
00:28:54.420 because he
00:28:54.680 seems good
00:28:55.120 at that.
00:28:57.820 So that's
00:28:58.420 good.
00:28:58.860 But he
00:28:59.380 needs to
00:28:59.760 do the
00:29:00.040 same thing
00:29:00.600 that the
00:29:01.180 rest of
00:29:01.480 the task
00:29:01.900 force
00:29:02.220 needs to
00:29:02.820 do,
00:29:03.040 which is
00:29:03.340 tell us
00:29:03.920 where we're
00:29:04.320 at in
00:29:05.320 terms of
00:29:05.900 meeting our
00:29:06.680 needs for
00:29:07.240 equipment for
00:29:08.320 the front
00:29:08.700 line people.
00:29:15.820 Talk about
00:29:16.660 the admiral.
00:29:20.420 Was it
00:29:21.780 the admiral
00:29:22.340 who's in
00:29:22.800 charge of
00:29:23.540 procurement
00:29:24.320 and logistics?
00:29:26.480 See,
00:29:26.820 I think
00:29:27.440 that's the
00:29:28.000 guy who
00:29:28.440 needs to
00:29:28.820 be telling
00:29:29.400 everybody else
00:29:30.100 the numbers.
00:29:31.560 So it's
00:29:32.340 not Jared
00:29:33.260 Kushner's
00:29:33.940 fault if
00:29:34.440 he can't
00:29:34.860 tell you
00:29:35.120 the numbers
00:29:35.600 if the
00:29:36.640 guy who's
00:29:37.060 in charge
00:29:37.460 of getting
00:29:37.800 the numbers
00:29:38.440 also can't
00:29:39.840 tell you
00:29:40.100 the numbers.
00:29:41.480 So it's
00:29:42.500 probably the
00:29:43.120 admiral.
00:29:44.020 Now he
00:29:44.360 had some
00:29:44.760 BS about
00:29:45.660 tapping
00:29:46.620 into the
00:29:47.340 hospitals,
00:29:48.980 procurement
00:29:49.400 systems,
00:29:50.340 and writing
00:29:50.820 some software
00:29:51.500 and blah
00:29:52.800 blah blah.
00:29:53.440 What did
00:29:53.760 he say?
00:29:54.100 He was
00:29:54.320 going to
00:29:54.540 get a
00:29:54.980 procurement
00:29:56.140 tower or
00:29:57.020 something,
00:29:57.460 some buzzword.
00:29:58.220 I didn't
00:29:58.460 even know
00:29:58.840 what it
00:29:59.080 meant.
00:30:00.000 So a
00:30:00.620 lot of
00:30:00.820 that was
00:30:01.100 just
00:30:01.360 jargon
00:30:02.780 and nonsense
00:30:03.260 and I'm
00:30:05.820 sure he's
00:30:06.240 very good
00:30:06.680 at his
00:30:06.960 job,
00:30:07.820 maybe the
00:30:08.680 best in
00:30:09.060 the world
00:30:09.460 according
00:30:10.820 to Trump
00:30:11.380 and I
00:30:11.940 have no
00:30:12.200 reason to
00:30:12.580 doubt it.
00:30:13.520 But in
00:30:13.760 terms of
00:30:14.140 his
00:30:14.340 communicating
00:30:15.000 with the
00:30:15.460 public,
00:30:16.440 which I
00:30:17.080 don't believe
00:30:17.540 he's ever
00:30:17.900 had to do
00:30:18.340 before.
00:30:19.640 Maybe that's
00:30:20.340 the first
00:30:20.700 time he's
00:30:21.100 ever had
00:30:21.440 to talk
00:30:21.820 to a
00:30:22.680 non-military
00:30:23.740 audience about
00:30:24.880 something that's
00:30:26.600 important to
00:30:27.460 his job in
00:30:28.000 this way.
00:30:29.260 So I
00:30:29.640 just, I
00:30:30.800 don't think
00:30:31.360 he hit the
00:30:33.780 mark, but
00:30:34.720 I would
00:30:35.740 expect him
00:30:36.300 to quickly
00:30:37.720 adapt because
00:30:38.820 at that
00:30:39.360 level, they
00:30:41.240 don't make
00:30:41.620 the same
00:30:42.540 mistake twice.
00:30:43.920 You know
00:30:44.040 what I mean?
00:30:44.860 Like by the
00:30:45.340 time you're
00:30:45.680 an admiral or
00:30:46.400 a general,
00:30:47.440 you're going
00:30:47.800 to look at
00:30:48.100 your performance,
00:30:48.820 you're going
00:30:49.020 to fix it,
00:30:49.600 it's not
00:30:49.940 going to be
00:30:50.160 the same
00:30:50.560 the second
00:30:51.300 day.
00:30:52.340 So I
00:30:52.680 would expect
00:30:53.140 that he
00:30:53.420 will start
00:30:53.760 giving us
00:30:54.360 some useful
00:30:55.640 numbers.
00:30:56.140 He has not
00:30:56.520 done that
00:30:56.880 yet.
00:30:57.780 In fact,
00:30:58.440 I'll make
00:30:58.820 a prediction.
00:30:59.600 You want
00:30:59.800 a prediction?
00:31:01.580 Tomorrow's
00:31:02.020 press conference,
00:31:05.640 the admiral
00:31:06.280 will tell you
00:31:07.360 something closer
00:31:09.260 to this is
00:31:10.340 what we need,
00:31:11.100 this is what
00:31:11.580 we have.
00:31:13.200 And it
00:31:13.640 could be a
00:31:14.240 wild estimate,
00:31:15.600 but if it's
00:31:16.060 the best
00:31:16.440 he knows,
00:31:17.620 then I
00:31:18.020 want to
00:31:18.240 know that,
00:31:18.680 even if
00:31:19.000 he's wrong
00:31:19.420 and even
00:31:19.740 if he has
00:31:20.140 to revise
00:31:21.180 it later.
00:31:22.480 All right.
00:31:24.440 Is there
00:31:24.960 anything else
00:31:25.380 you guys
00:31:25.780 want?
00:31:27.620 Otherwise?
00:31:31.380 Where is
00:31:32.040 Schiff?
00:31:33.760 Will we
00:31:34.400 learn from
00:31:34.900 our mistakes
00:31:35.520 with China?
00:31:37.360 I'll tell
00:31:38.020 you, the
00:31:38.600 United States
00:31:39.300 has never
00:31:39.840 had this
00:31:41.960 feeling about
00:31:42.860 China before
00:31:43.680 all at the
00:31:44.500 same time.
00:31:45.140 China can
00:31:47.140 be divisive.
00:31:49.080 If the
00:31:49.740 Democrats
00:31:50.220 like China,
00:31:51.220 then the
00:31:51.540 Republicans
00:31:51.940 have to
00:31:52.380 not like
00:31:52.840 them and
00:31:53.200 vice versa.
00:31:54.660 But at
00:31:55.300 the moment,
00:31:56.240 the United
00:31:56.680 States, I
00:31:58.020 think we
00:31:58.400 see what
00:31:58.860 we're dealing
00:31:59.260 with here.
00:32:03.020 I'm being
00:32:03.700 asked in the
00:32:04.220 comments about
00:32:04.760 3M.
00:32:05.360 Apparently,
00:32:05.920 the president
00:32:06.540 had to put
00:32:08.040 the boot
00:32:08.460 on 3M,
00:32:09.600 or maybe
00:32:10.120 they were
00:32:10.540 helping 3M
00:32:11.580 get rid of
00:32:12.580 some kind
00:32:12.920 of obstacle.
00:32:14.140 So I
00:32:14.620 don't want
00:32:14.960 to assume
00:32:15.340 that whatever
00:32:17.360 the order
00:32:17.880 was that
00:32:18.340 the president
00:32:19.000 signed,
00:32:19.420 I don't
00:32:19.660 want to
00:32:19.960 assume that
00:32:21.400 3M was
00:32:21.980 doing anything
00:32:22.500 wrong,
00:32:23.060 but they
00:32:23.880 may have
00:32:24.180 had some
00:32:24.560 obstacle that
00:32:25.240 they also
00:32:25.720 needed the
00:32:26.520 president to
00:32:27.080 get out of
00:32:27.420 the way.
00:32:28.260 So that's
00:32:28.980 a wait and
00:32:29.340 see.
00:32:29.740 I wouldn't
00:32:30.220 want to make
00:32:30.580 a judgment
00:32:30.980 based on what
00:32:31.780 we know about
00:32:32.320 that, which
00:32:32.720 is not much.
00:32:35.240 Where is
00:32:35.620 Joe?
00:32:36.440 Yes, where
00:32:37.180 is Joe
00:32:38.880 Biden?
00:32:43.680 Do you
00:32:44.220 think Gavin
00:32:44.720 Newsom will
00:32:45.180 push for
00:32:45.660 martial law?
00:32:47.580 You know,
00:32:48.240 I'm not
00:32:48.640 entirely sure
00:32:49.640 what martial
00:32:51.740 law buys
00:32:52.540 you that we
00:32:53.460 don't already
00:32:53.980 have.
00:32:55.280 I mean, I
00:32:56.360 could probably
00:32:56.740 make a list
00:32:57.300 of what you
00:32:57.760 can do with
00:32:58.360 it that you
00:32:58.740 can't do
00:32:59.080 without it,
00:33:00.060 but do we
00:33:00.640 need it?
00:33:01.660 I don't
00:33:02.560 see the need
00:33:03.820 for it.
00:33:04.640 If that
00:33:05.200 develops,
00:33:06.000 anything's
00:33:06.600 possible.
00:33:07.180 I'm far
00:33:11.340 less concerned
00:33:12.300 than all
00:33:13.940 of you
00:33:14.300 are about
00:33:15.280 turning into
00:33:17.100 a dictatorship.
00:33:18.820 And part
00:33:19.180 of that is
00:33:19.760 my little
00:33:20.740 monologue
00:33:21.160 earlier talking
00:33:21.940 about these
00:33:23.100 ideas that
00:33:24.020 hold us
00:33:24.380 together as
00:33:24.940 a country.
00:33:26.240 And the
00:33:26.840 strongest ideas
00:33:27.680 we have is
00:33:28.300 that we're
00:33:29.120 not going to
00:33:29.500 put up with
00:33:29.920 a dictator.
00:33:31.360 There's
00:33:31.800 probably
00:33:32.060 nothing that
00:33:33.660 is more
00:33:33.960 basic to
00:33:35.520 the American
00:33:36.440 character.
00:33:37.000 And I'm
00:33:37.700 talking about
00:33:38.300 everybody who
00:33:39.480 is, you
00:33:40.120 know, 10
00:33:40.500 generations here
00:33:41.500 plus everybody
00:33:42.940 who came over
00:33:43.600 yesterday.
00:33:44.760 Because even the
00:33:45.660 people who came
00:33:46.260 here yesterday,
00:33:47.140 they're not into
00:33:48.360 dictators.
00:33:49.460 Not at all.
00:33:51.060 So the risk
00:33:52.560 that this country
00:33:53.540 could turn into
00:33:54.180 a dictatorship,
00:33:55.820 you know,
00:33:56.140 maybe I'm too
00:33:56.900 optimistic,
00:33:57.440 optimistic, but
00:33:57.900 to me it's
00:33:58.420 zero times
00:33:59.220 zero times
00:33:59.840 zero, because
00:34:01.120 the public, we
00:34:02.820 just have too
00:34:03.460 strong a mental
00:34:04.220 model that we
00:34:05.660 would die to
00:34:06.440 change that.
00:34:07.640 You know, I
00:34:07.920 mean, so many
00:34:08.580 Americans would
00:34:09.280 just say, oh,
00:34:10.340 that's the deal?
00:34:11.340 We're going to be
00:34:11.980 a dictatorship?
00:34:12.880 All right, where
00:34:13.360 do I have to
00:34:13.800 sign up to die
00:34:14.580 to change that?
00:34:16.060 And you'd have
00:34:16.800 so many volunteers
00:34:17.640 that it would
00:34:19.240 change instantly.
00:34:20.220 So we're, I
00:34:20.900 think we're very
00:34:21.460 safe as long as
00:34:22.440 our mental models
00:34:23.500 are good, and
00:34:24.180 they are.
00:34:25.200 We're very
00:34:25.840 safe from that.
00:34:27.280 Now, you
00:34:29.220 want to hear
00:34:29.760 something
00:34:30.020 controversial?
00:34:31.440 You won't
00:34:32.040 like it.
00:34:33.000 For years I've
00:34:33.800 been saying
00:34:34.320 that we see
00:34:36.000 privacy and
00:34:38.200 our loss of
00:34:38.860 privacy as a
00:34:39.760 bad thing.
00:34:40.840 That we believe
00:34:41.860 privacy is good
00:34:42.840 and loss of
00:34:43.360 privacy is bad.
00:34:44.680 I've been
00:34:45.360 saying that
00:34:46.740 our filters are
00:34:47.920 backwards.
00:34:49.340 And that the
00:34:50.220 illusion here is
00:34:51.500 that what we're
00:34:51.980 really comparing
00:34:52.800 is one person
00:34:54.420 having privacy
00:34:55.240 but you
00:34:55.860 don't, because
00:34:56.800 that's bad.
00:34:58.260 You don't want
00:34:58.740 to live in the
00:34:59.720 world where
00:35:00.100 other people
00:35:00.700 have privacy
00:35:01.320 but you
00:35:01.860 don't?
00:35:03.440 No, no
00:35:04.180 thank you.
00:35:05.220 That'd be the
00:35:05.660 worst world,
00:35:06.400 right?
00:35:07.040 So when you
00:35:07.760 say do you
00:35:08.240 want privacy
00:35:08.920 or do you
00:35:09.860 think it'd be
00:35:10.260 okay if we
00:35:10.720 had less
00:35:11.020 privacy, we
00:35:12.160 reflexively think
00:35:13.320 in terms of I
00:35:14.760 don't want to
00:35:15.180 be the one who
00:35:15.720 doesn't have
00:35:16.300 it.
00:35:17.620 But consider
00:35:18.540 this world.
00:35:20.360 How about a
00:35:20.780 world where
00:35:21.100 nobody had it?
00:35:21.820 Now, I'm
00:35:23.940 not talking
00:35:24.640 about your
00:35:25.580 bedroom and
00:35:26.160 bathroom activities.
00:35:27.160 You still have
00:35:27.760 that as private
00:35:28.360 as you want.
00:35:29.520 But imagine
00:35:30.180 this pandemic
00:35:31.520 came and
00:35:32.400 we'd already
00:35:33.240 all of us
00:35:33.940 given away
00:35:34.400 our privacy.
00:35:36.480 And just
00:35:37.640 think about
00:35:38.220 this as an
00:35:40.200 idea, not a
00:35:41.160 suggestion.
00:35:42.400 There's nothing
00:35:43.240 about what I'm
00:35:43.840 going to say
00:35:44.220 that's actually
00:35:44.880 going to happen
00:35:45.500 in the real
00:35:46.160 world.
00:35:46.680 It's just a
00:35:47.260 thought experiment.
00:35:48.360 So you don't
00:35:48.720 have to get
00:35:49.100 mad at me.
00:35:49.740 I'm not
00:35:50.400 promoting it.
00:35:51.440 It wouldn't
00:35:51.780 matter if I
00:35:52.300 did.
00:35:52.700 It's not
00:35:53.000 going to
00:35:53.180 happen.
00:35:54.160 So just
00:35:54.920 think about
00:35:55.400 it for the
00:35:55.900 intellectual
00:35:56.380 thought about
00:35:57.460 it.
00:35:58.260 If we had
00:35:59.020 given away
00:35:59.400 all of our
00:35:59.840 privacy, let's
00:36:00.600 say we had
00:36:02.120 let the
00:36:02.480 government know
00:36:03.460 at all times
00:36:04.240 where our
00:36:04.960 phones are so
00:36:06.680 that it could
00:36:07.100 tell who was
00:36:07.720 near anybody
00:36:08.500 else, then
00:36:09.620 their contact
00:36:10.360 tracing would be
00:36:11.180 instant.
00:36:12.180 So you
00:36:12.800 wouldn't have
00:36:13.140 to worry
00:36:13.640 about, uh-oh,
00:36:15.080 this person
00:36:15.640 just was found
00:36:17.360 to have the
00:36:17.900 virus.
00:36:18.320 the moment
00:36:19.320 you find it
00:36:19.880 out, you
00:36:20.260 would just
00:36:20.500 put that
00:36:20.860 person's
00:36:21.280 phone over
00:36:21.840 into your
00:36:22.300 system, and
00:36:23.400 everybody who
00:36:24.260 had contact
00:36:25.140 with them in
00:36:25.700 the last two
00:36:26.200 weeks would
00:36:26.600 get a text.
00:36:27.860 I think they're
00:36:28.340 doing that
00:36:28.740 somewhere, South
00:36:29.400 Korea maybe.
00:36:30.680 But in
00:36:31.620 order to do
00:36:32.120 that, we
00:36:32.580 would have
00:36:32.900 already had
00:36:33.760 to agree to
00:36:35.440 give up our
00:36:35.960 privacy.
00:36:36.820 Now the
00:36:37.240 downside is
00:36:37.980 that they
00:36:38.940 abuse it.
00:36:40.480 But would
00:36:41.120 they?
00:36:42.120 Here's the
00:36:42.720 thing.
00:36:43.880 They could
00:36:44.400 abuse it if
00:36:46.540 they had
00:36:46.960 privacy and
00:36:47.700 you didn't.
00:36:48.580 But remember,
00:36:49.540 that's the
00:36:49.940 situation that
00:36:50.820 we all agree
00:36:51.580 is the worst
00:36:52.080 one.
00:36:52.940 So I don't
00:36:53.380 favor a
00:36:53.940 situation where
00:36:55.700 somebody in
00:36:56.420 the government
00:36:56.860 could still
00:36:58.020 have their
00:36:58.360 own privacy
00:36:59.000 and then
00:37:00.000 abuse yours.
00:37:02.700 You'd have
00:37:03.260 to be in the
00:37:03.620 same boat,
00:37:04.320 whereas if they
00:37:04.980 started to
00:37:05.520 abuse your
00:37:06.020 privacy, you
00:37:07.380 could know
00:37:07.780 they were
00:37:08.020 doing it,
00:37:08.620 because they
00:37:08.880 wouldn't have
00:37:09.140 any privacy.
00:37:10.380 You would
00:37:10.940 know what
00:37:11.240 they were
00:37:11.420 doing.
00:37:11.980 So you'd
00:37:12.300 say, hey,
00:37:13.280 don't abuse
00:37:14.000 my privacy.
00:37:15.260 Or there
00:37:16.500 would be
00:37:16.720 nothing to
00:37:17.140 abuse because
00:37:17.760 everybody had
00:37:18.640 given it
00:37:18.980 up.
00:37:19.540 Now, you'd
00:37:20.040 have to have
00:37:20.360 exceptions,
00:37:21.100 maybe not
00:37:21.720 your health
00:37:22.140 care, etc.
00:37:23.240 But you
00:37:24.480 could easily
00:37:25.360 imagine a
00:37:26.000 world where
00:37:27.360 giving away
00:37:27.940 all of your
00:37:28.480 privacy allows
00:37:30.240 you to solve
00:37:30.900 gigantic
00:37:31.500 problems,
00:37:32.440 like a
00:37:34.000 pandemic.
00:37:36.160 Right?
00:37:36.620 If we had
00:37:38.260 given away
00:37:38.700 all of our
00:37:39.140 privacy, the
00:37:40.640 pandemic would
00:37:41.320 be over.
00:37:43.560 But it has
00:37:44.560 its own
00:37:44.920 costs, and
00:37:45.980 you're well
00:37:46.460 aware of
00:37:46.840 them.
00:37:47.020 So I'm
00:37:47.240 not selling
00:37:47.720 it.
00:37:48.280 I'm not
00:37:48.800 saying you
00:37:49.220 should give
00:37:49.500 away your
00:37:49.820 privacy.
00:37:50.340 I'm just
00:37:50.620 saying, if
00:37:51.880 we had, we'd
00:37:54.600 be working
00:37:54.940 right now.
00:37:56.260 Somebody
00:37:56.680 says, naive.
00:37:59.780 Somebody
00:38:00.180 says, very
00:38:00.700 naive.
00:38:01.400 Well, I
00:38:01.800 block all
00:38:02.240 those
00:38:02.420 people.
00:38:05.060 So you're
00:38:06.480 welcome to
00:38:07.480 give reasons.
00:38:11.360 But if you
00:38:12.340 say, naive, or
00:38:14.660 very naive, or
00:38:16.180 even just
00:38:16.640 wrong, then
00:38:19.300 indeed, you
00:38:21.460 will be
00:38:21.740 blocked.
00:38:26.160 They would
00:38:26.960 abuse this.
00:38:28.660 All right, can
00:38:29.060 we agree, can
00:38:30.440 we agree that
00:38:31.580 you don't have
00:38:32.160 to tell me
00:38:32.740 that people
00:38:33.460 would try to
00:38:33.980 abuse it?
00:38:35.980 Can you
00:38:36.540 agree that I
00:38:37.120 know that, so
00:38:38.020 you don't have
00:38:38.400 to keep telling
00:38:39.100 me?
00:38:40.540 Because that
00:38:41.020 would be sort
00:38:41.600 of in the
00:38:42.240 obvious category.
00:38:43.180 But everything's
00:38:43.720 got a risk and
00:38:45.140 a trade-off.
00:38:46.540 So there you
00:38:47.120 are.
00:38:52.100 What were
00:38:52.680 the odds
00:38:53.240 that we would
00:38:54.400 all be dressing
00:38:55.080 like Antifa?
00:38:57.540 If we're
00:39:00.760 living in a
00:39:01.300 simulation, I
00:39:03.540 always say this
00:39:04.140 jokingly, so
00:39:04.880 don't take
00:39:05.520 this too
00:39:05.920 seriously, but
00:39:07.020 I always say
00:39:07.460 that one
00:39:07.920 piece of
00:39:09.660 evidence, not
00:39:10.540 proof, but
00:39:11.820 compatible
00:39:12.380 evidence, that
00:39:13.260 you're living in
00:39:13.860 the simulation
00:39:14.400 is code
00:39:15.940 reuse.
00:39:17.780 That you'd
00:39:18.120 see things
00:39:18.660 that, you
00:39:21.540 know, you'd
00:39:21.920 just see
00:39:22.240 patterns over
00:39:22.980 and over
00:39:23.240 again.
00:39:24.820 So don't
00:39:25.600 you think we're
00:39:26.060 seeing some
00:39:26.540 code reuse?
00:39:27.340 One of the
00:39:28.380 biggest stories
00:39:29.000 is people
00:39:29.800 wearing masks
00:39:30.760 that are just
00:39:31.780 like scarves
00:39:32.600 around their
00:39:33.040 face, mostly.
00:39:35.000 I guess they
00:39:35.440 had all kinds
00:39:35.860 of masks, but
00:39:36.760 they had all
00:39:37.160 kinds of masks
00:39:37.860 and they were
00:39:38.360 wearing the
00:39:38.800 masks in
00:39:39.380 public.
00:39:40.580 And that was
00:39:41.160 like a big
00:39:41.700 story for the
00:39:42.400 last several
00:39:42.820 years, to be
00:39:43.560 a whole bunch
00:39:44.800 of masked
00:39:45.480 people in
00:39:46.080 public.
00:39:47.400 And then
00:39:48.160 there's a
00:39:49.000 pandemic and
00:39:49.900 what does it
00:39:51.020 cause?
00:39:52.260 People to wear
00:39:53.100 masks in
00:39:53.820 public.
00:39:54.240 I don't
00:39:55.820 know, did
00:39:56.540 both of
00:39:57.180 those things
00:39:57.660 have to
00:39:58.020 happen in
00:39:58.540 the same
00:39:58.900 few years?
00:40:00.320 Completely
00:40:00.820 different stories
00:40:01.660 and they
00:40:01.960 both required
00:40:03.840 somebody to
00:40:04.340 wear a mask
00:40:04.900 in public?
00:40:07.740 Code reuse.
00:40:09.320 That is how
00:40:10.100 you know
00:40:10.520 that this is
00:40:12.840 a simulation.
00:40:19.420 How is
00:40:20.140 Mexico doing?
00:40:21.020 I do not
00:40:24.560 know how
00:40:24.980 Mexico is
00:40:25.600 doing.
00:40:27.420 You know,
00:40:28.980 you want to
00:40:30.380 hear a
00:40:30.840 theory?
00:40:33.560 Say yes.
00:40:35.080 Yes, you do.
00:40:36.120 You want to
00:40:36.560 hear a wild
00:40:36.920 theory?
00:40:37.760 All right,
00:40:38.040 here's the
00:40:38.360 caveat.
00:40:40.180 I'm not
00:40:40.880 going to go
00:40:41.240 full conspiracy
00:40:42.100 theory.
00:40:43.000 I'm just
00:40:43.640 going to say
00:40:44.100 that if you
00:40:45.540 were going to
00:40:45.920 predict the
00:40:46.460 future,
00:40:47.860 maybe this
00:40:49.380 would be
00:40:50.040 compatible
00:40:51.900 with a
00:40:52.880 prediction.
00:40:54.040 It goes
00:40:54.800 like this.
00:40:56.240 So if you
00:40:57.060 believe that
00:40:57.620 the cartels
00:40:58.480 in Mexico
00:40:59.020 have too
00:40:59.760 much control
00:41:00.460 over the
00:41:00.860 government,
00:41:01.360 including the
00:41:01.960 federal
00:41:02.180 government,
00:41:03.140 that we
00:41:04.060 could never
00:41:04.520 really work
00:41:05.400 with the
00:41:05.820 federal
00:41:06.080 government
00:41:06.520 of Mexico
00:41:07.060 to do
00:41:08.240 something
00:41:08.580 about the
00:41:09.140 cartels
00:41:09.700 because they
00:41:11.160 are the
00:41:11.460 cartels.
00:41:12.460 Or at least
00:41:13.100 they're working
00:41:13.580 with them,
00:41:14.020 we're afraid
00:41:14.400 of them,
00:41:14.920 we're taking
00:41:15.360 money from
00:41:15.880 them,
00:41:16.040 or something.
00:41:16.380 So there's
00:41:18.900 some kind
00:41:19.280 of too
00:41:19.800 much of
00:41:20.160 a closeness
00:41:21.120 there.
00:41:22.340 Now,
00:41:23.400 that's the
00:41:24.220 first assumption.
00:41:25.440 So if you
00:41:25.760 don't think
00:41:26.140 that's the
00:41:26.600 case,
00:41:27.500 then nothing
00:41:27.980 else I say
00:41:28.680 makes sense.
00:41:29.800 But for
00:41:30.400 those of you
00:41:30.920 who say,
00:41:31.260 yeah,
00:41:31.500 I'll go
00:41:32.280 with you
00:41:32.660 so far
00:41:33.220 that the
00:41:35.080 government
00:41:35.460 of Mexico
00:41:35.960 is probably
00:41:36.820 a little
00:41:38.200 friendly with
00:41:38.640 the cartels.
00:41:40.880 Now,
00:41:41.360 let's say
00:41:41.620 that you're
00:41:41.860 President Trump
00:41:42.480 and you
00:41:42.920 want to
00:41:43.280 figure out
00:41:43.860 to fix
00:41:45.080 this cartel
00:41:45.840 situation.
00:41:47.340 And you're
00:41:47.800 looking at
00:41:48.240 all your
00:41:48.560 options.
00:41:50.060 And you
00:41:50.300 look at
00:41:50.560 your assets
00:41:51.140 and what
00:41:51.780 you got
00:41:52.060 going,
00:41:53.080 and you
00:41:53.340 say,
00:41:54.600 you know,
00:41:55.840 what asset
00:41:56.500 we have
00:41:56.980 is this
00:41:57.440 El Chapo
00:41:58.240 is in
00:41:58.820 jail.
00:42:00.760 So,
00:42:01.560 you've got
00:42:02.320 El Chapo
00:42:02.940 and he's
00:42:03.740 probably
00:42:04.040 flexible
00:42:04.620 right now.
00:42:06.300 Right?
00:42:06.980 He's probably
00:42:07.360 flexible.
00:42:08.920 So,
00:42:10.200 El Chapo
00:42:10.800 is in
00:42:11.060 our jail,
00:42:12.100 probably
00:42:13.100 getting
00:42:13.400 flexible.
00:42:14.800 Doesn't
00:42:15.280 look like
00:42:15.700 he's
00:42:15.900 ever
00:42:16.100 going to
00:42:16.320 go back
00:42:16.680 to his
00:42:17.000 life of
00:42:17.600 being a
00:42:18.860 narco
00:42:20.060 crime boss.
00:42:21.900 I would
00:42:22.560 think he's
00:42:22.940 really
00:42:23.180 flexible.
00:42:25.000 Now,
00:42:25.340 just hold
00:42:25.720 that thought.
00:42:27.720 Separately
00:42:28.240 in the
00:42:28.580 news,
00:42:29.140 did you
00:42:29.500 see the
00:42:29.860 weird
00:42:30.180 story
00:42:30.680 about
00:42:31.020 the
00:42:31.180 president
00:42:31.560 of
00:42:31.780 Mexico
00:42:32.140 visited
00:42:33.360 the
00:42:33.660 town
00:42:33.980 where
00:42:34.220 El Chapo's
00:42:34.900 mother
00:42:35.180 lived,
00:42:36.300 and in
00:42:36.980 what looked
00:42:37.440 like it
00:42:37.880 was planned,
00:42:38.900 and there
00:42:39.080 were cameras
00:42:39.580 rolling and
00:42:40.080 everything,
00:42:40.860 he stopped
00:42:41.520 and went
00:42:42.100 over and
00:42:42.960 greeted the
00:42:44.580 woman and
00:42:45.020 talked to
00:42:45.380 her in
00:42:45.660 her car,
00:42:46.300 the 95-year-old
00:42:47.140 mom,
00:42:48.000 and she
00:42:48.300 said something
00:42:48.780 about,
00:42:49.300 you know,
00:42:49.500 she had
00:42:49.760 sent him a
00:42:50.200 letter,
00:42:50.720 I think he
00:42:51.100 said he
00:42:51.340 got it,
00:42:51.820 probably
00:42:52.040 something about
00:42:52.560 her son,
00:42:53.680 and so
00:42:54.140 people said,
00:42:55.400 all right,
00:42:55.640 is this a
00:42:56.140 coincidence?
00:42:57.800 Is it a
00:42:58.240 coincidence that
00:42:58.940 the president
00:42:59.420 of Mexico
00:43:00.060 happens to
00:43:01.720 just run
00:43:03.240 into El Chapo's
00:43:04.740 mom in an
00:43:05.800 intersection and
00:43:07.440 decides to
00:43:07.980 stop and
00:43:09.420 go talk to
00:43:10.020 her?
00:43:10.160 does that
00:43:11.700 sound like
00:43:12.460 a coincidence?
00:43:14.860 Well,
00:43:15.200 maybe it
00:43:15.480 was.
00:43:16.240 So,
00:43:16.700 one possibility
00:43:17.480 is that's
00:43:18.000 all it was.
00:43:18.880 He's just a
00:43:19.700 politician,
00:43:20.980 he just,
00:43:21.580 you know,
00:43:22.180 he had no
00:43:23.580 beef with
00:43:24.080 the mother,
00:43:25.400 maybe she's
00:43:25.940 kind of
00:43:26.240 famous,
00:43:26.740 so he
00:43:27.000 just stopped
00:43:27.360 and talked
00:43:27.700 to her.
00:43:28.440 So,
00:43:28.640 maybe it
00:43:28.940 was just
00:43:29.260 that,
00:43:29.740 possible.
00:43:31.300 Here's
00:43:31.760 another
00:43:31.980 possibility.
00:43:35.420 And I'm
00:43:36.140 not saying
00:43:36.520 this is
00:43:36.880 true,
00:43:38.320 this is
00:43:38.840 just for
00:43:39.460 fun,
00:43:39.960 okay?
00:43:40.860 Not a
00:43:41.460 prediction,
00:43:42.660 I don't
00:43:43.180 know anything,
00:43:44.080 I don't
00:43:44.260 have any
00:43:44.620 inside
00:43:44.980 information,
00:43:45.780 just for
00:43:46.320 fun.
00:43:47.980 If you
00:43:48.600 were Trump,
00:43:49.500 how would
00:43:49.960 you get
00:43:50.260 rid of
00:43:50.580 the cartels
00:43:51.340 and still
00:43:52.740 get the
00:43:53.100 government
00:43:54.000 of Mexico
00:43:54.740 involved?
00:43:56.260 Well,
00:43:56.720 here's the
00:43:57.060 way I'd
00:43:57.380 do it.
00:43:58.560 I would
00:43:59.240 get the
00:43:59.720 cartel
00:44:00.300 whose leader
00:44:01.140 you have
00:44:01.620 under your
00:44:02.560 control
00:44:03.100 to protect
00:44:04.860 the president
00:44:05.540 and the
00:44:07.640 high officials
00:44:08.240 in the
00:44:09.180 government.
00:44:10.600 So,
00:44:10.840 if the
00:44:12.420 president of
00:44:12.960 Mexico
00:44:13.280 needed
00:44:14.040 protection
00:44:14.680 from his
00:44:15.660 own
00:44:15.860 country,
00:44:16.740 who would
00:44:17.260 he turn
00:44:17.580 to?
00:44:18.000 His
00:44:18.380 military?
00:44:19.720 Well,
00:44:20.460 could he
00:44:20.800 trust them?
00:44:22.220 Maybe not.
00:44:23.660 But he
00:44:23.960 might be
00:44:24.300 able to
00:44:24.600 turn to
00:44:26.020 El Chapo's
00:44:26.980 cartel.
00:44:28.980 And El
00:44:29.240 Chapo
00:44:29.600 could,
00:44:30.380 and again,
00:44:31.060 I'm not
00:44:31.380 saying this
00:44:31.800 is happening,
00:44:32.620 this is just
00:44:33.080 for fun,
00:44:34.220 El Chapo
00:44:34.820 could agree
00:44:35.360 with the
00:44:35.660 government of
00:44:36.160 the United
00:44:36.420 States,
00:44:36.860 here's the
00:44:37.220 deal.
00:44:38.240 I'll go
00:44:38.800 straight and
00:44:39.600 get out of
00:44:40.000 the drug
00:44:40.400 business,
00:44:41.520 and in
00:44:42.660 return,
00:44:43.520 you'll give
00:44:44.400 me some
00:44:44.720 leniency and
00:44:45.720 you'll let
00:44:46.560 my people
00:44:47.000 live and
00:44:47.380 stuff,
00:44:48.000 but we'll
00:44:48.320 get out of
00:44:48.680 the drug
00:44:48.960 business,
00:44:49.660 but between
00:44:50.700 now and
00:44:51.100 the time
00:44:51.380 we do,
00:44:52.040 we'll protect
00:44:52.800 the government
00:44:54.040 of Mexico
00:44:54.940 so that you
00:44:56.300 can work
00:44:56.700 with them to
00:44:57.200 get rid of
00:44:57.580 the other
00:44:57.900 cartels.
00:45:01.040 And
00:45:01.520 suddenly,
00:45:02.060 the president
00:45:02.520 of Mexico
00:45:03.020 is talking
00:45:04.020 to the
00:45:04.380 mother of
00:45:05.260 El Chapo,
00:45:06.420 and it
00:45:06.760 all makes
00:45:07.160 sense.
00:45:08.480 So could
00:45:08.840 it be
00:45:09.260 that the
00:45:10.580 president of
00:45:11.040 Mexico may
00:45:11.640 be under
00:45:11.980 the protection
00:45:12.980 of El Chapo
00:45:15.120 as people
00:45:15.620 because the
00:45:17.600 United States
00:45:18.220 and El Chapo
00:45:19.000 find that to
00:45:20.500 be a good
00:45:20.900 understanding?
00:45:22.340 Maybe that's
00:45:23.100 the best way
00:45:23.560 to protect
00:45:24.000 the president
00:45:24.480 of Mexico.
00:45:26.440 Maybe that's
00:45:27.220 why we'll see
00:45:27.700 more military
00:45:28.280 action against
00:45:28.940 the cartels.
00:45:30.940 Now,
00:45:31.680 should you
00:45:33.000 bet on this?
00:45:34.160 No.
00:45:35.960 No.
00:45:37.100 No.
00:45:37.580 If this ever
00:45:38.300 became like a
00:45:39.080 betting market
00:45:39.780 unpredicted,
00:45:40.840 don't bet on
00:45:41.540 that.
00:45:42.660 I'm just
00:45:43.300 saying it
00:45:43.640 fits the
00:45:44.960 evidence.
00:45:45.520 That doesn't
00:45:45.900 mean it's
00:45:46.200 true.
00:45:48.320 Because it
00:45:48.900 only fits the
00:45:49.440 evidence we
00:45:49.920 know, which
00:45:50.460 is not
00:45:51.160 very much.
00:45:53.600 Somebody
00:45:54.080 says the
00:45:54.560 Mexican army
00:45:55.640 ran from
00:45:56.520 El Chapo's
00:45:57.380 son.
00:45:58.580 Right.
00:45:59.060 So you
00:45:59.660 do know
00:46:00.040 that, at
00:46:00.740 least in
00:46:01.120 some places,
00:46:02.100 the cartel
00:46:02.640 is more
00:46:03.100 powerful than
00:46:04.200 the army.
00:46:05.160 So it does
00:46:05.820 kind of make
00:46:06.400 sense, doesn't
00:46:06.920 it?
00:46:07.620 Kind of make
00:46:08.100 sense.
00:46:08.840 And if he
00:46:09.220 were El Chapo,
00:46:09.960 would you
00:46:10.280 make that
00:46:10.640 deal?
00:46:11.920 I would.
00:46:13.520 Because what
00:46:14.120 else has he
00:46:14.560 got?
00:46:15.900 You know, El
00:46:16.300 Chapo might want
00:46:17.120 a good life for
00:46:18.020 whoever is not
00:46:19.840 in jail, his
00:46:21.140 family and
00:46:21.660 stuff.
00:46:22.640 Maybe you
00:46:23.160 could make a
00:46:23.540 deal.
00:46:23.960 Get them out
00:46:24.320 of the drug
00:46:24.700 business.
00:46:25.220 They have some
00:46:25.620 chance of living.
00:46:26.880 But he might
00:46:27.400 need to protect
00:46:28.220 the president.
00:46:29.720 While business
00:46:31.660 is being taken
00:46:32.340 care of.
00:46:34.140 All right.
00:46:37.080 Is Zoom
00:46:38.140 safe?
00:46:39.900 You mean
00:46:40.420 Zoom as in
00:46:41.300 Z-O-O-M,
00:46:42.860 the software?
00:46:44.220 So first of
00:46:44.780 all, Zoom
00:46:45.740 is an amazingly
00:46:46.520 good product.
00:46:47.960 It's a really
00:46:48.480 good product, I
00:46:49.240 gotta say.
00:46:49.780 It's just well
00:46:50.440 designed.
00:46:51.600 But it's not the
00:46:52.420 only thing that
00:46:52.920 does that.
00:46:53.460 There are other,
00:46:54.840 you know, I
00:46:55.180 used something
00:46:56.220 the other day
00:46:56.740 that could do
00:46:57.480 something similar.
00:46:58.100 And, but
00:47:00.320 Zoom sends
00:47:01.640 at least some
00:47:02.120 of its traffic
00:47:02.700 through servers
00:47:03.400 in China and
00:47:05.120 most of their
00:47:05.660 engineers, I
00:47:06.700 think most of
00:47:07.200 them are in
00:47:07.860 China, and
00:47:09.360 that's a
00:47:10.040 security issue.
00:47:12.220 So if you're
00:47:12.660 just, you know,
00:47:13.160 talking to your
00:47:13.660 friends, it's
00:47:15.340 great.
00:47:16.080 But if you have
00:47:16.760 any kind of
00:47:17.420 proprietary
00:47:17.800 information or
00:47:18.840 anything you
00:47:21.140 wouldn't want
00:47:21.600 China to know
00:47:22.240 about, I
00:47:23.980 wouldn't use
00:47:24.440 that.
00:47:27.020 Zoom sends
00:47:27.840 all your
00:47:28.120 passwords to
00:47:28.960 China, says
00:47:29.780 somebody.
00:47:31.000 That's probably
00:47:32.060 literally true in
00:47:33.460 the sense that
00:47:34.100 the traffic might
00:47:34.920 be going through
00:47:35.480 servers there.
00:47:36.600 I don't, I'm
00:47:37.860 not saying it's
00:47:38.400 literally true in
00:47:39.200 that they're
00:47:39.780 emailing your
00:47:40.440 password to the
00:47:41.080 government.
00:47:46.480 All right.
00:47:47.220 I think I've
00:47:49.260 said everything I
00:47:49.940 need to say, and
00:47:52.120 I will see you in
00:47:52.980 the morning.
00:47:54.400 But before that, I
00:47:57.000 want to tell you
00:47:57.720 that you're going
00:47:58.960 to have a really
00:47:59.460 good night of
00:48:00.180 sleep tonight
00:48:00.680 again.
00:48:01.860 If you didn't
00:48:02.600 have one last
00:48:03.260 night, well, even
00:48:04.600 more reason to
00:48:05.200 have a good one
00:48:05.780 tonight.
00:48:07.400 But you're going
00:48:08.160 to get better and
00:48:10.240 better at sleeping
00:48:11.100 until you can just
00:48:12.820 lay down and
00:48:13.820 drift away.
00:48:15.880 So think of my
00:48:16.620 voice, counting
00:48:17.220 you to 20, and
00:48:19.240 feel yourself just
00:48:20.220 drifting away.
00:48:22.020 And I won't do
00:48:22.820 it tonight.
00:48:23.760 You can just
00:48:24.340 replay it in your
00:48:25.600 mind.
00:48:26.580 And then tell me,
00:48:27.840 tell me how well
00:48:29.240 you slept tomorrow
00:48:30.180 morning.
00:48:30.860 I will see you in
00:48:31.720 the morning, 10
00:48:32.880 a.m. Eastern,
00:48:34.660 7 a.m. Pacific.
00:48:36.920 Have a great
00:48:37.440 night.