Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 889 Scott Adams： Simultaneous Sipping With a Cartoonist Who Needs a Haircut

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody. Come on in. It's time for your twice daily dose of coffee with Scott Adams and the simultaneous sip.

00:00:22.000 And if you would like to enjoy this simultaneous sip, perhaps you need a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:38.360 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:41.820 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine for the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the coronavirus.

00:00:49.020 That's right. Including that.

00:00:52.000 It's a simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:58.240 Ooh yeah.

00:01:01.400 Better every moment.

00:01:03.660 All right.

00:01:06.180 China is apparently keeping open their wet markets, the places where they torture animals to death and then eat them or something.

00:01:17.440 I don't know exactly what they're doing there.

00:01:19.140 But here's my proposition for the world.

00:01:23.200 We should never open up travel to China so long as they have their wet markets open. 1.00

00:01:30.840 Now, what would that cause them to do?

00:01:33.860 Well, they might close the wet markets so that they could have travel again with the United States.

00:01:38.660 Or they could admit that the virus didn't come from the wet market if they want to keep them open. 0.69

00:01:44.840 So I think we should just make it not personal, nothing personal about this China, no insult intended.

00:01:54.800 But as long as your wet markets are open, we're never going to have flights between the United States and China.

00:02:02.980 Never.

00:02:03.460 Now, at some point in the near future, we're going to have the debate about reopening travel.

00:02:11.080 It might be a month from now.

00:02:12.100 I don't know.

00:02:13.260 But let me tell you where I'm going to come out on this.

00:02:17.300 If the wet markets are still open, I'm going to go nuts if we open up travel.

00:02:24.060 I don't think I'll do anything else except complain about that.

00:02:32.080 So are you with me?

00:02:34.040 We can't open up travel to China while they keep the wet market open. 1.00

00:02:38.100 That's a level of irresponsibility that takes them out of first world contention.

00:02:44.840 I mean, there's a certain set of behaviors that are just necessary to be part of the civilized world.

00:02:51.940 And that's not it.

00:02:53.160 That's just not it.

00:02:54.760 So let's agree that no travel to China ever, ever, for the rest of time until they close the wet markets. 0.95

00:03:05.340 Now, you might say to yourself, will that work?

00:03:09.040 Could we put pressure on China that way?

00:03:11.860 And allow me to tell a story from years ago.

00:03:15.960 This story won't tell you much about China, but I was reminded of it.

00:03:20.520 It was funny.

00:03:21.060 It goes like this.

00:03:22.000 A million years ago, when I was young and I worked in the corporate environment at the phone company, I was in a cubicle environment.

00:03:30.060 And this is so long ago that smoking was allowed indoors.

00:03:35.100 So I would be surrounded by people smoking cigarettes indoors.

00:03:39.800 And, you know, I've got mild asthma, and it was just horrible.

00:03:42.960 Like, it just smelled, and it was unpleasant.

00:03:45.340 I couldn't work with that smell.

00:03:47.300 But, of course, it was legal at the time.

00:03:50.600 So I would talk to my boss, and my boss would say, what can I do?

00:03:55.200 It's legal.

00:03:56.160 It's allowed.

00:03:56.940 You know, what can I do?

00:04:00.240 So that situation persisted for a while.

00:04:04.580 And keep in mind that this was before I started Dilber.

00:04:07.900 I was just a guy in a cubicle.

00:04:10.820 And it's important for the historical, you know, value of the story.

00:04:16.200 You have to know that this was way before I was known for being persuasive.

00:04:23.860 That's important to the story.

00:04:26.160 So every day I would think, gosh, what am I going to do?

00:04:29.740 I can't put up with this.

00:04:32.340 And I've already asked management, and they said, we're not going to change it.

00:04:35.260 Well, one day, as luck would have it, the corporate folks decided that we all had to sign off on some workplace safety documents.

00:04:49.800 And each person had to look at the documents and read them.

00:04:52.860 And then they had to sign that they understood the workplace safety rules and that they would implement them.

00:05:00.340 So it wasn't enough that you knew what they were.

00:05:03.040 However, you were basically committing that if you saw a workplace safety problem, that it was your job to do something about it.

00:05:11.880 And one of the things they required is that if a workplace is unsafe, that you should immediately inform management and then not go to work there.

00:05:21.400 So it was your responsibility to not work where it was unsafe.

00:05:25.500 It was only your responsibility to tell management that you weren't going to work there.

00:05:29.340 And then they need to change it.

00:05:30.920 So I get the document, and I'm looking down the list of known problems.

00:05:37.160 And it was listing carcinogens.

00:05:39.680 And it listed tobacco, second-hand tobacco smoke.

00:05:43.320 So on the company's own documents, the official document that I had to sign to promise that I would comply with it,

00:05:52.660 it said that if I was in a situation with second-hand tobacco smoke, I was in a dangerous workplace area.

00:06:00.640 So I complied.

00:06:02.900 And I informed my management that I wouldn't be coming to work anymore until the workplace was created to be safe.

00:06:13.400 And I said, it's nothing personal.

00:06:15.820 I'm just going to use the company policy that says this is an unsafe workplace.

00:06:20.860 I mean, it's right here.

00:06:21.860 I'm not making this up.

00:06:23.320 I'm reading it right off the page.

00:06:24.940 And I'm in one.

00:06:27.740 I mean, there's no doubt about it.

00:06:29.160 There's no question about the data.

00:06:31.420 I'm sitting right next to a smoker.

00:06:33.460 So I said, I'll come back to work when it's safe.

00:06:37.960 So I went home.

00:06:40.700 A day goes by, and my immediate supervisor calls and says,

00:06:44.540 are you serious about this?

00:06:45.780 Or words to that effect.

00:06:46.940 And I said, why wouldn't I be serious about it?

00:06:50.540 It's the workplace policy.

00:06:52.140 I'm just following your own policy.

00:06:53.980 I can't go to work until it's safe.

00:06:57.080 That's your rule.

00:06:59.140 I'm not making the rules up.

00:07:01.860 He talks to his boss.

00:07:03.800 His boss calls me the next day.

00:07:05.460 So this is day two where I'm being paid, but I'm not going to work.

00:07:10.660 So far, this is good for me, right?

00:07:13.560 My boss's boss calls and said, are you serious about this?

00:07:17.860 I said, yeah, totally serious about it.

00:07:21.060 I'm not coming back to work until the smoking is gone.

00:07:24.460 And then my boss's boss's boss called.

00:07:28.400 I may be remembering some of this a little approximately,

00:07:31.580 but it was basically this story.

00:07:33.600 And said, are you serious about this?

00:07:38.560 And I said, yep.

00:07:43.560 And about a day later, my boss called and said

00:07:46.240 that they had rearranged the office

00:07:48.340 and put the smokers in one place

00:07:50.820 and they would have me in another place.

00:07:52.880 So I decided to go back to work

00:07:54.540 because they moved me to a non-smoking part of the building.

00:07:58.420 And it was only maybe months after that

00:08:01.160 that the whole company banned smoking indoors.

00:08:03.480 Now, part of what I did was make sure people knew my story

00:08:08.720 because the company buckled.

00:08:12.100 They had to.

00:08:13.200 They had to.

00:08:14.260 What were they going to do?

00:08:15.320 It was their own policy.

00:08:16.860 It was in writing.

00:08:17.600 And they just gave it to me and forced me to sign it

00:08:21.080 at the risk of being fired if I didn't sign it.

00:08:26.140 Now, what would happen after I told all the people in my office

00:08:30.280 that they could just go home and get paid

00:08:32.700 and they didn't have any chance of getting fired?

00:08:36.460 Well, that was the end of smoking at Pacific Bell.

00:08:39.020 Well, so my point is that we could certainly tell China

00:08:45.480 that we're not going to open up travel

00:08:48.040 until their wet markets are closed.

00:08:50.700 We could do that.

00:08:52.380 Because you just have to make sure

00:08:54.460 that they know you're not bluffing.

00:08:56.400 It's all about knowing you're not bluffing.

00:08:58.460 And let me tell you, I was willing to get fired.

00:09:01.460 I would have gone to the local newspaper.

00:09:03.740 I would have made it a national story

00:09:06.220 to the extent that I could have.

00:09:07.660 So, remember I told you the difference

00:09:10.480 between wanting something and deciding?

00:09:13.340 This is a perfect anecdote for that.

00:09:16.180 There were a lot of people in the office

00:09:17.720 who wanted to not be around cigarette smoke.

00:09:22.520 But wanting it didn't do anything.

00:09:24.660 They could talk about it.

00:09:25.680 They could ask for it.

00:09:26.480 But they were just sort of wanting it.

00:09:28.780 I wanted it until I decided

00:09:31.960 I wasn't going to have it anymore.

00:09:34.420 Once I decided,

00:09:35.480 it was over.

00:09:37.960 I was not going to be around it.

00:09:39.380 Now, I might have lost my job.

00:09:41.940 You know, it might have been big consequences.

00:09:44.800 But I had already decided.

00:09:47.040 So that's the difference between deciding.

00:09:49.300 So if I had lost my job,

00:09:50.800 that was the price I was going to pay.

00:09:52.340 But I had already decided.

00:09:54.160 All right.

00:09:55.640 Yesterday, there were 136 fewer deaths

00:09:58.120 than the day before.

00:09:59.100 Let's see if we can keep that up.

00:10:01.560 I don't think we'll necessarily

00:10:03.200 be low again today.

00:10:05.400 I imagine the numbers are going to

00:10:07.200 pop around a little bit randomly for a while.

00:10:09.700 But that's a good sign.

00:10:11.220 Could be the beginning of the turn.

00:10:12.640 Never know.

00:10:13.780 On Fox News,

00:10:14.580 they said the unemployment rate

00:10:15.980 after these six point whatever million people

00:10:18.580 are added to unemployment

00:10:19.640 was 4.4%.

00:10:22.040 That's not right, is it?

00:10:25.580 Did we just add

00:10:26.600 over six million people

00:10:28.620 to unemployment

00:10:29.320 and the unemployment rate

00:10:31.180 is still only 4.4%?

00:10:34.240 That can't possibly be right, right?

00:10:36.900 So I need a fact check on that

00:10:38.620 because I thought it was around 10%.

00:10:40.560 Because if it's only 4.4%,

00:10:43.180 I'm not sure we have a problem, right?

00:10:47.140 But if it's 10%,

00:10:48.060 it's a pretty serious problem.

00:10:50.340 So let's fact check that.

00:10:51.580 That can't possibly be right.

00:10:53.020 That's 4.4%.

00:10:54.200 And maybe the problem is

00:10:56.640 that it's just going to keep getting higher.

00:10:58.240 So maybe I shouldn't be too happy

00:10:59.700 about that if it's true.

00:11:03.660 Here's, you know my complaints

00:11:07.940 about why the task force

00:11:10.360 does not give us good reporting

00:11:11.880 on ventilators and masks and PPE.

00:11:16.980 And I dug into it a little bit

00:11:18.920 and it turns out that

00:11:19.960 one of the problems is

00:11:20.940 that the hospitals

00:11:21.780 either can't tell you

00:11:23.060 or won't tell you

00:11:24.160 or they're hoarding

00:11:25.600 or they're lying.

00:11:27.400 So what do you do

00:11:28.540 when you need to make decisions

00:11:30.400 about what to do

00:11:32.500 about ventilators and supply

00:11:33.920 and all that

00:11:34.500 but you know

00:11:36.060 all the information is bad?

00:11:38.000 It's just bad data

00:11:39.300 because people are lying,

00:11:41.120 they don't know,

00:11:42.160 they're hoarding,

00:11:43.500 so everything you're getting is bad.

00:11:45.140 But here's what I would suggest.

00:11:48.640 I believe that you could estimate

00:11:50.360 these things

00:11:51.200 even without the hospitals

00:11:53.160 because you could take some averages.

00:11:55.300 For example,

00:11:55.980 you could say

00:11:56.540 how many people

00:11:58.200 does our model say

00:11:59.400 will go into the hospital?

00:12:01.580 Now I think the model

00:12:02.440 gives you a range, right?

00:12:04.240 You know,

00:12:04.600 the model says

00:12:05.320 it'll increase this much

00:12:06.500 in New York City.

00:12:08.380 That should tell you

00:12:09.320 how many new patients you got.

00:12:11.000 Now you know

00:12:11.960 that if you get 100 patients,

00:12:14.480 maybe two or three of them

00:12:15.960 will end up on ventilators,

00:12:17.880 whatever the number is.

00:12:19.380 So you should be able to estimate

00:12:20.900 if you know

00:12:21.940 how many people

00:12:22.500 are going to come in,

00:12:23.460 you know what percentage

00:12:24.460 of them are going to be

00:12:25.180 on ventilators

00:12:26.740 and you know

00:12:27.240 how many ventilators you have,

00:12:29.560 you kind of have enough.

00:12:31.500 Now,

00:12:31.980 in any given hospital

00:12:33.740 you might be way off.

00:12:35.280 But if you were to sum them up,

00:12:37.380 you probably,

00:12:38.240 your mistakes would,

00:12:39.600 they might average out

00:12:41.540 so you get closer

00:12:43.040 to a good number

00:12:44.140 when you average out

00:12:44.940 the peculiarities.

00:12:47.740 But at the very least,

00:12:49.280 it would give you

00:12:49.780 a directional number.

00:12:51.700 Now some have said

00:12:52.680 if they can add

00:12:54.160 an adapter

00:12:54.900 to double the number

00:12:56.580 of people on a ventilator,

00:12:58.440 and those are big variables

00:12:59.580 that could change everything

00:13:00.580 and we don't know

00:13:01.180 how that plays out.

00:13:02.500 But let's say,

00:13:03.060 let's have a number

00:13:03.680 without that.

00:13:04.840 Just a raw ventilator number.

00:13:07.360 Could the defense

00:13:09.560 procurement act,

00:13:10.880 the DPA,

00:13:12.120 could the president

00:13:12.960 say to all the hospitals,

00:13:14.960 I'm the president,

00:13:16.720 it's an emergency,

00:13:18.240 and under the defense act,

00:13:22.100 I order all the hospitals

00:13:23.460 to give me

00:13:24.060 these three pieces of data

00:13:25.440 by the end of the day.

00:13:27.380 And maybe it's just

00:13:28.260 an email address

00:13:29.100 or whatever it is.

00:13:30.480 And just say,

00:13:31.120 by the end of today,

00:13:33.000 you tell me

00:13:33.740 how many ventilators you got,

00:13:35.120 how many are in use,

00:13:36.360 and whatever data

00:13:38.840 around that

00:13:39.460 would be also useful.

00:13:42.560 Could the president

00:13:43.180 force that to be done

00:13:44.280 in 24 hours?

00:13:45.220 I think so.

00:13:46.720 I think so.

00:13:47.520 Would all the hospitals

00:13:48.600 give him accurate information?

00:13:50.620 Would some sandbag? 0.99

00:13:51.840 Yeah, of course.

00:13:52.720 Of course.

00:13:53.400 Because it's human beings involved.

00:13:55.200 But you'd get in the ballpark.

00:13:57.360 Wouldn't you like to know

00:13:58.460 if we're 60% of the way?

00:14:01.280 And let's say

00:14:01.960 you're wrong about that.

00:14:02.760 It's not 60% of the way

00:14:04.240 it turns out to be 50 or 70.

00:14:06.920 That's pretty far off, right?

00:14:08.520 Well, not really.

00:14:09.640 For decision making,

00:14:10.720 it tells you

00:14:11.180 you have to go

00:14:11.780 as hard as you can.

00:14:13.800 Because whether we have

00:14:14.740 50% enough

00:14:15.960 or 70% enough,

00:14:17.720 it's not even close to enough.

00:14:20.640 But if it's 90% enough,

00:14:23.920 maybe you say,

00:14:24.980 all right,

00:14:25.240 put a little energy

00:14:25.940 into something else

00:14:27.420 because we're pretty close on that.

00:14:29.720 So we need these numbers.

00:14:31.280 It's not a joke anymore.

00:14:32.760 We have to say

00:14:33.820 the task force is incompetent

00:14:35.440 if they can't give us

00:14:36.740 these numbers by today,

00:14:37.980 I would say.

00:14:38.620 I mean,

00:14:38.880 they're already incompetent

00:14:39.860 for not doing it yesterday.

00:14:41.320 And I'm not going to

00:14:42.120 grade easy on this.

00:14:44.220 You know,

00:14:44.480 I've got my compliments

00:14:46.060 for things

00:14:47.500 the president has done.

00:14:48.960 I think his decision making

00:14:50.320 has actually been quite good.

00:14:52.500 If you were to look at,

00:14:53.680 you know,

00:14:53.900 what you knew at the time

00:14:55.220 and then what decision you made,

00:14:57.780 I think history is going to say

00:14:58.940 his decision making

00:14:59.800 is quite good.

00:15:00.580 But there's something

00:15:02.240 preventing the number of crunchers

00:15:04.120 or whoever's job it is

00:15:05.880 from giving the public

00:15:07.560 useful information

00:15:09.100 on these PPE and ventilators.

00:15:11.840 And that just needs to be fixed.

00:15:14.740 I can estimate it for you.

00:15:17.300 I mean,

00:15:17.560 I could do it.

00:15:19.180 It wouldn't,

00:15:19.780 you know,

00:15:20.040 and I could get within

00:15:21.140 a range or,

00:15:23.380 you know,

00:15:24.020 a field where it would be

00:15:25.060 useful information.

00:15:25.900 It's not that hard.

00:15:29.800 One of the things

00:15:30.480 we're seeing here

00:15:31.100 is that people

00:15:32.060 are really bad

00:15:32.980 at math

00:15:34.000 and it makes a difference

00:15:35.220 in how you,

00:15:36.300 and science as well,

00:15:37.320 I suppose,

00:15:38.120 and it makes a difference

00:15:38.880 in how you see

00:15:39.520 the whole situation.

00:15:41.220 If you don't know anything

00:15:42.580 about math

00:15:43.800 or economics,

00:15:45.080 you can be sort of

00:15:46.060 blinded to the tricks

00:15:47.260 people are playing.

00:15:49.360 And let me give you

00:15:50.180 an example.

00:15:51.120 In the New York Times,

00:15:51.820 I've got a story

00:15:52.360 that says

00:15:52.980 there are

00:15:53.860 2,200 ventilators

00:15:56.000 left in New York State

00:15:57.620 and they expect

00:16:00.460 to need 350 per day.

00:16:04.200 And so they just took

00:16:05.420 the 2,200

00:16:06.120 that they have available

00:16:07.360 and they said,

00:16:08.900 all right,

00:16:09.120 how many does 350

00:16:10.320 go into that

00:16:11.220 in about six days?

00:16:13.140 So they say,

00:16:13.620 well,

00:16:13.880 we've got about

00:16:14.200 a six-day supply.

00:16:15.600 What's wrong

00:16:16.300 with that calculation?

00:16:18.460 Anybody?

00:16:19.500 Anybody?

00:16:20.840 Mueller?

00:16:21.440 Mueller?

00:16:22.360 The answer is

00:16:23.520 it doesn't calculate

00:16:24.760 people coming

00:16:25.560 off ventilators

00:16:26.940 because you don't

00:16:28.940 use the ventilator

00:16:29.820 and throw it away.

00:16:31.460 People are coming

00:16:32.400 on and coming off.

00:16:33.980 So if the number

00:16:35.880 was,

00:16:36.980 and it's not,

00:16:38.080 but let's say

00:16:38.460 the number was

00:16:39.080 they get off ventilators

00:16:40.040 in three days,

00:16:41.460 well,

00:16:41.820 that completely changes

00:16:42.960 how many days

00:16:43.660 of ventilators you have.

00:16:45.180 If it's two weeks,

00:16:48.120 well,

00:16:48.400 then you've got

00:16:48.740 a little more trouble.

00:16:49.820 I've seen estimates

00:16:50.800 from nine to 11 days

00:16:52.020 and some people

00:16:52.580 saying seven.

00:16:53.600 But let's say

00:16:54.040 it's ten days.

00:16:55.680 You have to calculate

00:16:56.940 that,

00:16:57.980 right?

00:16:59.080 The New York Times

00:17:00.340 writing a feature article

00:17:02.720 just takes the amount

00:17:04.900 available

00:17:05.300 and divides it

00:17:06.280 by the amount

00:17:07.320 you need per day

00:17:08.040 and says,

00:17:08.460 well,

00:17:08.560 it looks like

00:17:08.880 about six days.

00:17:10.100 Are you kidding me?

00:17:12.220 A sixth grader

00:17:13.360 would know

00:17:13.880 that's not the right answer

00:17:15.100 because people

00:17:17.560 are coming off

00:17:18.180 ventilators too.

00:17:18.940 So,

00:17:20.260 yeah,

00:17:20.520 it's difficult

00:17:21.020 to calculate,

00:17:21.880 but let me finish

00:17:22.900 the point.

00:17:23.920 So,

00:17:24.460 by way of background,

00:17:25.760 for years,

00:17:26.740 my corporate job

00:17:27.740 was estimating

00:17:29.100 and predicting

00:17:29.840 and calculating

00:17:30.660 things

00:17:31.180 in the financial world

00:17:32.800 and the technical world.

00:17:34.280 So,

00:17:34.600 that's all I did

00:17:35.200 all day.

00:17:36.100 How accurate

00:17:37.080 were my predictions?

00:17:39.720 Not very

00:17:40.640 because it turns out

00:17:41.920 that predicting

00:17:42.440 the future

00:17:42.960 is kind of hard.

00:17:45.120 Kind of hard

00:17:45.540 to predict

00:17:45.880 the future.

00:17:47.260 So,

00:17:48.400 but,

00:17:48.960 were my predictions

00:17:49.840 useful

00:17:50.720 just the same?

00:17:51.720 And the answer

00:17:52.040 is yes.

00:17:53.020 So,

00:17:53.360 if you don't

00:17:53.720 understand this point,

00:17:55.440 you're going to be

00:17:55.940 very confused

00:17:56.940 about what you see

00:17:57.840 about numbers

00:17:58.580 and decisions

00:17:59.360 and stuff.

00:18:00.200 Here's the point.

00:18:02.240 Accuracy

00:18:02.680 is not what

00:18:04.060 you're shooting for.

00:18:05.340 It'd be great

00:18:05.880 if you could have it,

00:18:07.040 but you can't be

00:18:07.740 accurate about the future.

00:18:10.020 That's not a thing.

00:18:11.240 You can only predict

00:18:12.320 and hope you're accurate.

00:18:13.340 That's the best

00:18:13.740 you can do.

00:18:14.880 But,

00:18:15.720 it still tells you

00:18:16.760 what to do

00:18:17.280 and what not to do

00:18:18.180 even in its

00:18:19.080 inaccurate form.

00:18:20.460 And I'll just keep

00:18:21.060 using this example.

00:18:22.620 If you

00:18:23.280 had a very

00:18:24.360 inaccurate number,

00:18:26.180 but it told you

00:18:26.920 that we were

00:18:27.540 somewhere between

00:18:28.380 zero and 30%

00:18:29.880 of the number

00:18:30.520 of ventilators

00:18:31.120 we needed,

00:18:32.320 that would tell you

00:18:33.140 to do a major,

00:18:34.240 major push

00:18:34.820 to make more

00:18:35.360 ventilators,

00:18:36.340 even though your

00:18:36.900 number is grossly

00:18:38.140 approximate.

00:18:40.460 Likewise,

00:18:40.880 if it was more

00:18:41.820 like over 90%,

00:18:43.120 you would make

00:18:44.740 a different decision

00:18:45.480 about where

00:18:45.900 to put your

00:18:46.280 resources.

00:18:47.120 So you don't

00:18:47.500 have to be

00:18:48.080 that accurate.

00:18:49.220 And the other

00:18:49.500 thing is that

00:18:50.600 people who are

00:18:51.000 good at this

00:18:51.820 can pretty quickly

00:18:53.500 work through

00:18:54.380 reasonable estimates.

00:18:56.260 So for example,

00:18:59.040 I'll give you

00:18:59.940 an example

00:19:00.700 from my

00:19:01.300 budgeting days.

00:19:02.960 So I would go

00:19:03.420 to each

00:19:03.780 department head

00:19:04.720 and I'd say,

00:19:05.380 give me your budget

00:19:05.980 for the coming year.

00:19:07.620 And then I would

00:19:08.440 take all their

00:19:09.000 budget information

00:19:10.300 to my boss

00:19:11.060 and the boss

00:19:12.000 would look at it

00:19:12.620 and say,

00:19:13.000 okay,

00:19:13.760 cut it by 20%.

00:19:14.940 Just cut everybody

00:19:16.120 by 20%.

00:19:17.140 Now,

00:19:19.120 you think that's

00:19:19.860 stupid, right?

00:19:20.820 Because all the

00:19:21.580 department heads

00:19:22.340 told you what

00:19:23.080 they needed.

00:19:23.620 So if you cut it

00:19:25.600 by 20%,

00:19:26.240 they can't do

00:19:27.520 their jobs, right?

00:19:28.740 Well, here's where

00:19:29.540 experience comes in.

00:19:31.720 Because what I knew

00:19:33.400 and what my boss

00:19:34.860 knew every time

00:19:36.080 is that the

00:19:37.040 department managers

00:19:37.840 would be padding

00:19:38.800 their estimates

00:19:39.700 so they'd have

00:19:40.600 too much

00:19:41.280 because they don't

00:19:42.400 want to have

00:19:42.740 too little.

00:19:43.900 And we know

00:19:44.620 because human nature

00:19:45.560 is human nature

00:19:46.280 that the department

00:19:47.140 heads are not

00:19:47.820 so dumb

00:19:48.520 that they're going

00:19:49.680 to double asking

00:19:51.120 what they asked

00:19:51.660 for last year

00:19:52.280 unless they had

00:19:52.720 some good reason.

00:19:54.060 So you know

00:19:54.540 they're not going

00:19:55.020 to like cheap

00:19:55.800 by doubling it

00:19:56.900 because human nature

00:19:58.300 would be too obvious,

00:19:59.580 et cetera.

00:20:00.280 You know they're not

00:20:01.340 going to just

00:20:02.040 increase it by 10%

00:20:03.460 because they're going

00:20:05.240 to try to get

00:20:05.760 a little more than that.

00:20:07.300 So human nature

00:20:08.060 is they're going

00:20:08.560 to pick a number

00:20:09.320 to pad it by

00:20:10.680 that they think

00:20:12.160 they can get away with,

00:20:13.260 the biggest number

00:20:13.900 they think they have

00:20:14.480 a chance of getting

00:20:15.200 away with,

00:20:16.180 and big enough

00:20:17.000 that if it got

00:20:17.980 reduced a little bit

00:20:18.900 they'd still be okay.

00:20:20.640 What is that number?

00:20:21.980 Well, let me tell you

00:20:22.680 from experience.

00:20:24.080 It's usually

00:20:24.600 around 20%.

00:20:25.660 If you were to

00:20:26.540 just randomly

00:20:27.280 survey a bunch

00:20:29.240 of people

00:20:29.640 in that position

00:20:30.600 and say,

00:20:31.960 all right,

00:20:32.500 how much do you

00:20:33.100 think you're going

00:20:33.560 to pad it?

00:20:34.500 You'd probably find

00:20:35.680 that on average

00:20:36.520 people would pad

00:20:37.280 it about 20%.

00:20:38.620 Now, do I know that?

00:20:41.040 Do I have data

00:20:41.840 for that?

00:20:42.320 No, not at all.

00:20:43.360 It's basically

00:20:43.980 just something

00:20:44.540 an experienced person

00:20:45.900 would know automatically

00:20:47.920 because you just

00:20:48.560 see it and you see

00:20:49.260 it and you see

00:20:49.720 it until it's

00:20:50.620 just obvious

00:20:51.160 that that's

00:20:51.600 what's happening.

00:20:53.240 So likewise,

00:20:53.920 with this ventilator

00:20:54.700 situation,

00:20:55.980 if you told me,

00:20:57.460 tell me how many

00:20:58.480 the hospital says

00:20:59.880 they have,

00:21:01.340 I would probably

00:21:02.120 in my mind say,

00:21:03.140 well, that's probably

00:21:03.900 the least number

00:21:04.920 they have.

00:21:06.380 They might have

00:21:07.360 padded that a little

00:21:08.140 bit because they

00:21:09.220 don't want to run out.

00:21:11.100 So in this case,

00:21:12.120 they would pad it low.

00:21:13.580 In other words,

00:21:14.080 they tell you

00:21:14.520 they had fewer

00:21:15.400 ventilators than

00:21:16.200 they really have.

00:21:17.620 Once you sum up

00:21:18.620 all those numbers,

00:21:20.000 a good estimator

00:21:21.160 would say,

00:21:21.620 you know,

00:21:22.440 if we take the

00:21:24.140 numbers at face value,

00:21:25.220 it looks like this.

00:21:26.860 But common sense

00:21:27.820 says they may have

00:21:29.380 padded it a little bit

00:21:30.320 and then you might

00:21:31.500 figure that in.

00:21:32.940 All right.

00:21:33.340 Now, because it's

00:21:34.240 life and death,

00:21:35.160 you wouldn't want to

00:21:36.300 try to cut it

00:21:37.820 too close to the edge.

00:21:38.900 You're still going to

00:21:39.560 want to have more

00:21:40.100 ventilators, not less.

00:21:41.440 But these approximate

00:21:42.500 numbers do give you

00:21:43.440 some sense

00:21:44.500 sense of what

00:21:46.220 you should be doing.

00:21:49.060 According to

00:21:49.860 Josh Rogan

00:21:50.920 tweet,

00:21:52.260 scientists don't

00:21:53.200 rule out that

00:21:53.880 an accident

00:21:54.640 at a research lab

00:21:56.140 in Wuhan

00:21:56.720 might have spread

00:21:57.860 the deadly bat virus.

00:21:58.980 So I don't believe

00:22:00.060 that there are

00:22:00.740 any serious people

00:22:01.980 saying that it

00:22:03.420 looks like

00:22:03.900 it was intentional,

00:22:06.280 which is different

00:22:07.400 from saying

00:22:08.060 it's engineered.

00:22:09.540 So the virus

00:22:10.560 could be engineered

00:22:11.680 and it could be

00:22:13.020 natural,

00:22:13.440 but nobody's

00:22:14.980 saying that

00:22:15.520 China would be 1.00

00:22:16.220 dumb enough

00:22:16.660 to say,

00:22:17.040 oh, this is

00:22:17.500 a good idea.

00:22:18.180 Let's release this

00:22:19.700 in our own country.

00:22:21.140 So I don't think

00:22:21.940 anybody thinks

00:22:22.440 that happened,

00:22:23.360 at least the people

00:22:24.820 who are experts

00:22:25.420 at this sort of

00:22:25.960 thing.

00:22:26.160 thing, but it's

00:22:29.040 still out there.

00:22:30.700 And now that

00:22:31.620 does, that of

00:22:32.820 course, plays

00:22:33.860 into the

00:22:34.580 wet market

00:22:35.880 question.

00:22:37.400 If we know

00:22:38.180 that other

00:22:38.700 viruses came

00:22:39.460 from the wet

00:22:39.920 market, you

00:22:40.360 still have to

00:22:40.800 close it.

00:22:42.040 So independent

00:22:43.060 of whether this

00:22:43.900 one came from the

00:22:44.580 wet market or it

00:22:45.460 didn't, you still

00:22:46.200 have to close the

00:22:46.700 wet markets.

00:22:47.280 That's just, that

00:22:48.120 just has to be

00:22:48.700 done.

00:22:48.860 There's a, another

00:22:51.620 French study about

00:22:52.740 the hydroxychloroquine,

00:22:54.960 which is less

00:22:56.460 good.

00:22:56.800 So most of you

00:22:58.360 heard that one

00:22:58.960 study from France

00:22:59.960 that looked like the

00:23:01.720 hydroxychloroquine with

00:23:03.140 azithromycin and

00:23:04.160 zinc was really

00:23:05.220 effective in keeping

00:23:06.100 people off of

00:23:06.740 ventilators.

00:23:07.180 but another

00:23:09.740 study where they

00:23:10.560 only gave it to

00:23:11.360 people who were in

00:23:12.320 bad shape showed

00:23:14.060 that it did not

00:23:14.800 reduce the virus.

00:23:17.360 And that was, that

00:23:18.340 suggested to the

00:23:19.500 researcher who did

00:23:20.460 it that it

00:23:21.500 probably doesn't

00:23:22.340 work at all.

00:23:23.820 Because if it

00:23:24.660 worked even a

00:23:25.620 little bit, you

00:23:27.400 would see it even

00:23:28.180 with the sickest

00:23:29.560 patients.

00:23:30.060 So in other

00:23:30.420 words, you know,

00:23:31.600 it would make sense

00:23:32.420 that it helps the

00:23:33.200 less sick people a

00:23:34.160 lot, but you

00:23:35.580 should still, still

00:23:36.520 see a big effect

00:23:37.660 even if it doesn't

00:23:39.140 save their lives.

00:23:40.000 You should see the

00:23:40.600 virus go down on

00:23:42.300 the more sick

00:23:42.800 people.

00:23:43.420 And that, they

00:23:43.860 were the limit, the

00:23:45.220 study was limited to

00:23:46.200 sick people.

00:23:47.500 But here's the

00:23:48.040 thing.

00:23:49.640 I'm not a doctor,

00:23:51.500 but isn't there

00:23:52.400 something wrong with

00:23:53.160 this?

00:23:53.700 If they, if what he

00:23:54.760 was basing this on

00:23:55.680 was measuring the

00:23:57.280 virus load?

00:23:59.260 Because my

00:23:59.920 understanding, and

00:24:01.380 here's where I get

00:24:02.080 into trouble, Dr.

00:24:03.120 Drew, if you're

00:24:03.640 going to watch this,

00:24:04.880 send me a message

00:24:05.600 later and tell me

00:24:06.280 how completely

00:24:06.820 wrong I am.

00:24:07.860 So everybody,

00:24:09.120 everybody with this

00:24:10.260 warning, I don't

00:24:11.340 know what I'm

00:24:11.680 talking about.

00:24:13.040 So you get that,

00:24:13.940 right?

00:24:14.080 I'm going to talk

00:24:14.520 about some medical

00:24:15.100 stuff and I don't

00:24:15.720 know what I'm

00:24:16.040 talking about.

00:24:16.840 So put that caveat

00:24:17.760 in your head.

00:24:19.420 My understanding of

00:24:20.860 why this coronavirus

00:24:21.760 thing was killing

00:24:22.980 people is not

00:24:24.980 because there was a

00:24:26.860 lot of virus, but

00:24:28.940 rather there was

00:24:29.740 something about some

00:24:30.760 people's lungs and

00:24:33.040 their condition and

00:24:34.000 maybe their ACE2

00:24:35.100 receptors or

00:24:37.220 something about

00:24:37.680 their lungs,

00:24:39.240 that would cause 0.91

00:24:40.040 this, your, cause

00:24:42.380 your own body to

00:24:44.060 go into this, some

00:24:45.680 kind of a storm

00:24:46.720 that basically you

00:24:48.020 were, it would be

00:24:49.020 your defense

00:24:49.700 mechanisms going

00:24:50.680 haywire that is the

00:24:52.360 thing that kills

00:24:52.920 you.

00:24:54.160 Now, my

00:24:54.920 understanding is

00:24:55.600 that the

00:24:56.220 hydroxychloroquine

00:24:57.540 hydroxychloroquine

00:24:59.420 is supposed to

00:25:01.280 reduce the risk

00:25:03.140 of your own

00:25:04.040 immune system

00:25:04.760 going nuts.

00:25:06.820 Now, here's the

00:25:07.700 part I need to

00:25:08.340 fact check on.

00:25:10.100 Is the assumption

00:25:11.240 of why the

00:25:12.040 hydroxychloroquine

00:25:13.160 works that it

00:25:14.920 reduces virus?

00:25:16.720 Because I didn't

00:25:17.440 think that was the

00:25:18.060 assumption.

00:25:18.820 I thought the

00:25:19.380 assumption of why

00:25:20.140 it worked is that

00:25:21.500 it reduces the

00:25:22.760 reaction of your

00:25:23.680 body as opposed

00:25:25.600 to how much

00:25:26.120 virus there is.

00:25:27.540 So, if this

00:25:28.400 researcher said,

00:25:29.300 well, I don't

00:25:29.800 think the

00:25:30.100 hydroxychloroquine

00:25:30.860 works because we

00:25:32.260 didn't see it

00:25:32.900 reduce the virus,

00:25:34.880 but he was

00:25:35.820 already working

00:25:36.520 with people who

00:25:37.200 maybe were too

00:25:37.880 far gone,

00:25:39.120 does that tell

00:25:39.960 you anything?

00:25:42.000 And so, my

00:25:42.820 question is,

00:25:45.180 yeah, that's the

00:25:46.780 word I was

00:25:47.120 looking for.

00:25:48.180 It's a cytokine,

00:25:50.140 cytokine,

00:25:52.080 C-Y-T-O-K-I-N-E, 1.00

00:25:54.420 storm.

00:25:55.500 And that has

00:25:56.840 something to do

00:25:57.400 with your

00:25:57.780 body's own

00:25:58.500 defenses going

00:25:59.480 into some

00:25:59.940 kind of a

00:26:00.520 spiral that

00:26:01.920 is bad.

00:26:03.960 All right,

00:26:04.200 somebody says

00:26:04.640 incorrect, and

00:26:05.460 then somebody

00:26:05.800 says correct.

00:26:07.220 Somebody says

00:26:07.980 you are correct,

00:26:09.000 and somebody

00:26:09.580 says yes, it

00:26:10.360 reduces virus.

00:26:11.740 Somebody says

00:26:12.380 no, it kills

00:26:12.880 the virus,

00:26:13.440 somebody says

00:26:13.880 yes and no.

00:26:15.280 All right, so

00:26:15.640 that's why we

00:26:16.160 do a fact

00:26:17.620 check.

00:26:19.600 The other

00:26:20.240 thing I'm not

00:26:20.740 sure about is

00:26:22.140 did the second

00:26:22.820 study show the

00:26:24.480 cocktail?

00:26:25.760 I think you

00:26:26.380 did, right?

00:26:27.040 The azithromycin?

00:26:29.060 But I don't know.

00:26:29.640 Anyway, so I'm

00:26:30.520 just going to put

00:26:31.040 that out there

00:26:31.620 that I don't

00:26:32.260 know if the

00:26:32.900 two studies

00:26:33.460 were comparable.

00:26:35.020 So, but there

00:26:37.740 are now two

00:26:38.580 studies I know

00:26:39.400 of that shows

00:26:41.220 it doesn't work.

00:26:43.200 Right?

00:26:43.800 So if it turns

00:26:44.720 out that the

00:26:46.520 hydroxychloroquine

00:26:47.460 doesn't work,

00:26:48.920 don't say nobody

00:26:49.860 told you,

00:26:50.380 because there

00:26:51.780 are two

00:26:52.200 studies that

00:26:52.900 suggest it

00:26:53.500 doesn't, at

00:26:54.020 least two,

00:26:54.520 there might

00:26:54.740 be more.

00:26:55.540 But one of

00:26:56.040 them is the

00:26:56.680 Chinese study

00:26:57.500 that has no

00:26:58.120 credibility,

00:26:59.540 because it's

00:26:59.980 a Chinese

00:27:00.360 study.

00:27:01.260 And the

00:27:01.940 second one

00:27:02.500 is this

00:27:03.140 one, which

00:27:03.620 I'm not

00:27:04.020 sure they

00:27:04.600 compared apples

00:27:05.300 and oranges,

00:27:06.420 so I don't

00:27:06.980 know if it's

00:27:07.360 telling us what

00:27:08.100 it should,

00:27:08.640 but it should

00:27:09.180 worry you that

00:27:09.780 the virus did

00:27:11.180 not reduce.

00:27:12.160 All right.

00:27:12.380 I was already

00:27:18.320 worried about

00:27:19.020 the following

00:27:20.160 thing happening

00:27:20.940 and it already

00:27:21.820 happened today.

00:27:22.960 Like, there's

00:27:23.380 some things you

00:27:23.920 can just predict

00:27:25.340 about human

00:27:26.020 nature.

00:27:27.440 Humans are

00:27:28.200 just, sometimes

00:27:29.580 we're awesome,

00:27:30.340 but sometimes

00:27:30.720 we're just

00:27:31.240 terrible.

00:27:31.960 And here's a

00:27:32.460 prediction I made

00:27:33.240 about human

00:27:33.780 nature.

00:27:34.740 So I have

00:27:35.520 made for some

00:27:36.180 time the

00:27:36.580 prediction that

00:27:37.920 the total net,

00:27:39.460 keyword net,

00:27:40.820 deaths from

00:27:42.480 the coronavirus

00:27:43.240 would be

00:27:44.880 5k or less,

00:27:46.640 5,000 or

00:27:47.340 less.

00:27:47.940 Now you say

00:27:48.420 to yourself,

00:27:48.960 but Scott,

00:27:49.600 6,000 people

00:27:50.540 have already

00:27:50.940 died, so

00:27:52.660 you're already

00:27:53.800 wrong because

00:27:54.560 it's over

00:27:55.340 5,000.

00:27:56.280 To which I

00:27:56.940 say, no,

00:27:57.440 you missed

00:27:58.020 the net

00:27:58.500 part because

00:27:59.360 so many

00:27:59.800 people have

00:28:00.360 lived because

00:28:01.700 there's no

00:28:02.240 traffic, etc.

00:28:03.400 They have to

00:28:04.180 consider that

00:28:04.900 because that

00:28:05.180 was all part

00:28:05.640 of the same

00:28:06.020 decision.

00:28:06.760 The decision

00:28:07.280 to close

00:28:07.780 the economy

00:28:08.340 necessarily

00:28:10.700 saved a

00:28:11.300 whole bunch

00:28:11.600 of lives.

00:28:12.320 It wasn't

00:28:12.860 why we

00:28:13.320 did it,

00:28:13.960 but it's

00:28:14.400 there.

00:28:15.460 So already,

00:28:17.860 and I

00:28:18.200 predicted,

00:28:19.180 that no

00:28:19.560 matter how

00:28:20.160 clearly and

00:28:21.040 how often

00:28:21.640 I would

00:28:22.020 say the

00:28:23.060 5k is

00:28:23.860 net,

00:28:25.400 that when

00:28:26.360 we know

00:28:26.920 what the

00:28:27.260 real numbers

00:28:27.780 are,

00:28:28.820 idiots would

00:28:29.600 come after

00:28:30.120 me on the

00:28:30.540 internet and

00:28:31.120 say,

00:28:31.800 Scott,

00:28:32.580 you said

00:28:33.260 5,000 and

00:28:34.960 it's really

00:28:35.380 20,000,

00:28:36.820 so I guess

00:28:37.660 you're wrong,

00:28:38.160 better admit it

00:28:38.700 in public.

00:28:39.080 And if

00:28:41.060 you can

00:28:41.360 believe it,

00:28:42.020 somebody is

00:28:42.540 already doing

00:28:43.780 it.

00:28:45.360 Already,

00:28:46.080 somebody

00:28:46.380 contacted me

00:28:47.180 on LinkedIn

00:28:47.640 and said,

00:28:49.180 Scott,

00:28:49.700 you should

00:28:50.240 already admit

00:28:50.920 that you're

00:28:51.240 wrong because

00:28:51.700 it's over

00:28:52.020 5,000 and

00:28:52.880 you didn't

00:28:53.300 say net

00:28:54.000 the first

00:28:54.940 time you

00:28:55.380 said it.

00:28:58.500 Why do

00:29:01.340 people like

00:29:01.840 that exist?

00:29:03.380 Now,

00:29:03.860 it probably

00:29:04.260 is true 0.89

00:29:04.760 that I

00:29:05.400 didn't say

00:29:05.880 net the

00:29:06.580 first time

00:29:07.040 I said

00:29:07.380 it.

00:29:08.020 But I

00:29:08.360 did say

00:29:08.740 it way

00:29:09.180 before we

00:29:09.760 knew how

00:29:10.080 many people

00:29:10.500 were going

00:29:10.800 to die.

00:29:11.480 I said

00:29:11.780 it when

00:29:12.160 about 1,000

00:29:13.060 had died

00:29:13.900 so far.

00:29:15.040 And it

00:29:15.620 should be

00:29:15.980 obvious that

00:29:16.760 it's net

00:29:17.220 because it

00:29:18.480 shouldn't be

00:29:19.000 anything else.

00:29:21.100 The only

00:29:22.100 thing that

00:29:22.480 matters is

00:29:23.000 the net.

00:29:23.540 That's the

00:29:23.880 whole point.

00:29:24.780 We're trying

00:29:25.180 to net

00:29:25.980 save people.

00:29:27.540 That's all

00:29:28.300 we're doing.

00:29:29.940 So of course

00:29:30.960 it's the net.

00:29:31.440 I shouldn't

00:29:32.000 have to

00:29:32.480 say it

00:29:32.980 but already

00:29:34.740 so I'm

00:29:39.120 going to

00:29:39.320 block

00:29:39.620 everybody

00:29:39.940 who does

00:29:40.340 that.

00:29:41.300 So I

00:29:41.600 want to

00:29:41.780 give you

00:29:42.020 a warning.

00:29:43.020 There will

00:29:43.360 be people

00:29:43.860 come in

00:29:44.260 here who

00:29:44.720 say,

00:29:45.360 you saw

00:29:45.660 5,000,

00:29:46.440 so you're

00:29:46.760 wrong,

00:29:47.520 it goes

00:29:47.800 against your

00:29:48.160 permanent

00:29:48.440 record,

00:29:49.160 and I'm

00:29:49.580 just going

00:29:49.840 to block

00:29:50.160 you for

00:29:50.500 being stupid. 0.92

00:29:51.080 So just

00:29:52.380 know that

00:29:52.760 that's

00:29:52.980 going to

00:29:53.160 happen.

00:29:55.220 So we

00:29:57.920 learned

00:29:58.180 yesterday that

00:29:58.920 the Florida

00:29:59.780 emergency

00:30:00.420 management

00:30:00.940 official said

00:30:01.760 the 3M

00:30:03.000 was selling

00:30:03.600 masks to

00:30:04.480 other

00:30:04.840 countries

00:30:05.360 because they

00:30:06.420 were showing

00:30:06.800 up with

00:30:07.120 cash or

00:30:07.800 they were

00:30:08.200 ahead of

00:30:08.720 us in

00:30:09.060 the line.

00:30:10.820 Then some

00:30:11.200 people are

00:30:11.520 saying,

00:30:11.820 well,

00:30:12.240 you have to

00:30:12.880 let people

00:30:13.260 sell across

00:30:14.160 borders because

00:30:15.120 if everybody

00:30:15.840 did that,

00:30:18.060 then we

00:30:18.500 might have

00:30:18.900 less supply

00:30:19.600 because we

00:30:20.040 wouldn't be

00:30:20.400 able to get

00:30:20.700 it from

00:30:20.920 other countries.

00:30:22.220 I don't

00:30:22.720 know if

00:30:22.960 any of

00:30:23.180 that's

00:30:23.360 true.

00:30:24.460 But let

00:30:25.260 me say

00:30:25.520 this.

00:30:26.460 I don't

00:30:27.060 judge this

00:30:28.700 kind of

00:30:29.160 mistake in

00:30:30.100 that has

00:30:30.480 to be

00:30:30.820 judged as

00:30:31.480 a mistake

00:30:31.960 by the

00:30:32.460 government.

00:30:33.440 I don't

00:30:33.840 judge this

00:30:34.420 as a

00:30:34.760 mistake

00:30:35.200 because as

00:30:36.800 soon as

00:30:37.100 they found

00:30:37.520 out about

00:30:37.960 it,

00:30:38.220 they stopped

00:30:38.980 it.

00:30:40.320 So this

00:30:41.120 is a case

00:30:41.740 of things

00:30:42.260 working

00:30:42.660 correctly.

00:30:44.100 Now,

00:30:44.420 you would

00:30:44.820 like that

00:30:45.460 we would

00:30:45.860 have

00:30:46.060 anticipated

00:30:46.600 this from

00:30:47.200 day one,

00:30:48.240 that somebody

00:30:48.800 should have

00:30:49.160 said on

00:30:49.480 day one,

00:30:50.080 here's the

00:30:50.500 law,

00:30:51.400 under the

00:30:52.380 emergency

00:30:52.820 act or

00:30:53.560 whatever act

00:30:54.260 or executive

00:30:55.000 order,

00:30:55.540 whatever we

00:30:55.940 need to do,

00:30:56.980 you can't

00:30:57.680 sell it to

00:30:58.060 foreign countries

00:30:58.660 because we

00:30:59.060 need it here.

00:31:00.100 But I

00:31:00.780 don't know

00:31:01.040 if anybody

00:31:01.360 thought of

00:31:01.880 that,

00:31:02.560 did they?

00:31:03.780 I don't

00:31:04.600 believe anybody

00:31:05.160 had it on

00:31:05.660 the top of

00:31:06.100 their mind

00:31:06.500 that that

00:31:06.800 was even

00:31:07.140 a risk.

00:31:08.380 It was a

00:31:09.000 hole that

00:31:09.360 needed to

00:31:09.760 be plugged.

00:31:10.560 But apparently

00:31:11.120 as soon as

00:31:11.680 the president

00:31:12.260 heard about

00:31:12.800 it,

00:31:13.740 within 60

00:31:14.880 seconds,

00:31:15.440 he said,

00:31:15.880 go plug that

00:31:16.420 hole,

00:31:16.880 and then they

00:31:17.520 did.

00:31:18.240 So I

00:31:18.700 think this

00:31:19.100 is exactly

00:31:19.700 the kind

00:31:20.160 of mistake

00:31:20.940 that you

00:31:22.280 should judge

00:31:22.960 generously.

00:31:23.880 Because we're

00:31:24.300 in an

00:31:24.580 emergency,

00:31:25.220 it's fog

00:31:25.660 of war,

00:31:26.460 we're

00:31:27.160 probably

00:31:27.460 going to

00:31:27.640 make all

00:31:27.980 kinds of

00:31:28.380 mistakes,

00:31:29.540 but if we're

00:31:30.160 correcting them

00:31:30.860 as soon as

00:31:31.240 we make

00:31:31.600 them,

00:31:32.260 that's really

00:31:32.700 as good

00:31:33.020 as you

00:31:33.240 can do.

00:31:34.200 So I'm

00:31:34.620 not going

00:31:34.940 to criticize

00:31:35.440 the president

00:31:37.220 or the

00:31:37.880 task force

00:31:38.360 for that,

00:31:40.080 whereas the

00:31:41.800 not giving us

00:31:42.460 good numbers

00:31:42.980 about the

00:31:43.420 PPE and

00:31:44.040 ventilators,

00:31:44.820 they've had

00:31:45.400 plenty of

00:31:45.840 time.

00:31:47.220 I'm definitely

00:31:48.040 criticizing them

00:31:48.820 for that.

00:31:49.180 how do you

00:31:52.060 make decisions

00:31:52.600 when you

00:31:52.960 have incomplete

00:31:53.500 data and

00:31:54.320 you don't

00:31:54.580 trust your

00:31:55.020 data?

00:31:55.360 That's the

00:31:55.700 situation we're

00:31:56.340 in, and I'll

00:31:57.540 give you some

00:31:58.020 hints.

00:31:59.440 One way is that

00:32:00.420 you can make

00:32:01.040 decisions you

00:32:01.740 can reverse.

00:32:03.160 So if you

00:32:03.820 don't know what

00:32:04.380 you should do

00:32:05.000 because the

00:32:05.460 data is so

00:32:06.060 fuzzy, do

00:32:07.420 something that

00:32:07.980 you can reverse

00:32:08.660 if it doesn't

00:32:09.240 work out.

00:32:09.880 So that's

00:32:10.200 rule number

00:32:10.880 one.

00:32:12.120 Next thing you

00:32:12.740 want to do is

00:32:13.240 things you can

00:32:13.760 test, which is

00:32:15.160 the same as

00:32:15.880 reversing it if

00:32:17.360 it doesn't work

00:32:17.900 out.

00:32:18.160 You need to be

00:32:19.020 able to know

00:32:19.520 it's not

00:32:19.880 working.

00:32:21.600 And then

00:32:22.200 beyond that,

00:32:22.820 you make

00:32:23.160 decisions with

00:32:23.900 the best

00:32:24.240 expected value,

00:32:25.460 which is you

00:32:26.060 say, well,

00:32:27.220 there's a 10%

00:32:27.980 chance of this

00:32:28.700 happening and

00:32:29.440 costing me $1,000,

00:32:31.220 so I will value

00:32:32.720 that at 10%

00:32:33.600 times $1,000 or

00:32:34.840 $100.

00:32:35.760 That's an

00:32:36.340 expected value

00:32:37.060 calculation.

00:32:37.820 You don't need

00:32:38.220 to do all the

00:32:38.700 math.

00:32:39.600 But there are

00:32:40.020 ways to estimate

00:32:40.740 things and there

00:32:42.220 are ways to make

00:32:42.680 decisions when all

00:32:43.720 your data is bad.

00:32:46.600 One of the

00:32:47.180 things you keep

00:32:47.700 hearing from our

00:32:48.400 experts is that

00:32:49.940 our national

00:32:50.520 strategy is to

00:32:51.800 use data to

00:32:53.660 make decisions.

00:32:55.920 But am I

00:32:56.720 wrong that all

00:32:57.540 of our data has

00:32:58.200 been wrong so

00:32:58.880 far?

00:32:59.480 I feel like all

00:33:00.220 of our data is

00:33:00.840 just bad.

00:33:01.960 So what does it

00:33:02.900 mean to make

00:33:03.420 data-based

00:33:04.180 decisions when

00:33:04.940 all of your

00:33:05.380 data is bad

00:33:06.080 and you know

00:33:06.540 it?

00:33:07.560 Well, we're

00:33:08.180 not really

00:33:08.600 making data-based

00:33:09.480 decisions.

00:33:10.600 We're not

00:33:10.980 making decisions

00:33:12.360 based on data.

00:33:13.740 That's sort of

00:33:14.300 just something

00:33:14.820 politicians say so

00:33:16.120 you feel better

00:33:16.660 about it.

00:33:17.860 They would

00:33:18.500 make decisions

00:33:19.240 based on data.

00:33:20.520 They want to.

00:33:22.120 They just don't

00:33:22.580 have any.

00:33:23.580 They don't have

00:33:24.320 the right kind

00:33:24.800 of data that

00:33:25.380 they can rely

00:33:25.920 on.

00:33:26.760 So I don't

00:33:28.320 know what it

00:33:28.600 means to make

00:33:29.080 decisions on

00:33:29.680 data when you

00:33:30.140 don't have good

00:33:30.580 data.

00:33:31.260 All right.

00:33:31.960 But we can

00:33:32.580 still make

00:33:32.960 decisions.

00:33:35.160 Are you having

00:33:36.160 the same

00:33:37.200 head-shaking

00:33:38.300 experience I am

00:33:39.980 as you watch

00:33:40.700 expert after

00:33:42.420 expert get on

00:33:43.360 television and

00:33:45.340 give interviews

00:33:46.920 in which the

00:33:48.000 experts are now

00:33:48.760 saying, oh

00:33:49.300 yeah, masks

00:33:49.920 are a good

00:33:50.360 idea.

00:33:51.580 Obviously.

00:33:52.760 Oh, obviously

00:33:53.460 masks are a

00:33:55.460 good idea.

00:33:57.160 And wasn't

00:33:58.960 it just a few

00:33:59.760 weeks ago that

00:34:00.940 only the idiots

00:34:01.860 who had no

00:34:02.440 expertise were

00:34:03.220 saying, obviously

00:34:05.160 masks are a

00:34:05.940 good idea.

00:34:06.400 Why are you

00:34:06.740 lying to us

00:34:07.320 like this?

00:34:08.300 And now the

00:34:08.800 experts are

00:34:09.300 acting like they

00:34:10.140 knew it all

00:34:10.580 along.

00:34:11.720 It's bugging

00:34:12.480 me.

00:34:13.480 It's kind

00:34:14.080 of bugging

00:34:14.420 me.

00:34:14.880 To watch

00:34:15.520 the experts

00:34:16.040 act as

00:34:16.920 though it's

00:34:17.240 just common

00:34:18.640 sense.

00:34:19.740 Of course.

00:34:21.060 I mean, if

00:34:21.440 the virus is

00:34:22.900 spread by

00:34:23.320 things coming

00:34:23.840 out of your

00:34:24.220 mouth, and

00:34:25.880 especially some

00:34:26.640 of them might

00:34:27.040 be non-symptomatic,

00:34:28.780 why wouldn't

00:34:29.240 you want to

00:34:29.580 cover that

00:34:30.080 source of

00:34:30.880 virus?

00:34:32.680 It's really

00:34:33.420 bugging me.

00:34:34.440 But I'm glad

00:34:35.020 that they're

00:34:35.340 coming around

00:34:35.800 to the right

00:34:36.180 answer.

00:34:39.640 And where

00:34:40.280 were you a

00:34:40.760 month ago is

00:34:41.280 my question for

00:34:41.980 those.

00:34:42.480 Experts?

00:34:46.040 Let's see.

00:34:50.320 I saw two

00:34:51.240 people made

00:34:51.760 the same

00:34:52.120 suggestion today,

00:34:53.160 and I would

00:34:53.560 like to

00:34:54.840 promote that

00:34:57.040 idea.

00:34:57.420 Dana Perino

00:34:57.960 and Jake

00:34:58.780 Novak,

00:34:59.400 who separately

00:34:59.900 made the

00:35:00.520 same kind

00:35:01.640 of observation

00:35:02.220 that we

00:35:02.580 need some

00:35:02.960 kind of a

00:35:03.320 task force

00:35:03.960 or somebody

00:35:04.700 in charge

00:35:05.260 of the

00:35:07.080 go-back-to-work

00:35:07.720 decision.

00:35:09.320 Because it's

00:35:09.940 not just

00:35:10.340 yes-no.

00:35:10.860 right?

00:35:12.420 The decision

00:35:12.880 to go back

00:35:13.320 to work

00:35:13.680 is probably

00:35:14.660 going to get

00:35:15.040 really complicated

00:35:15.820 and again,

00:35:18.260 it'll be hard

00:35:18.820 to have the

00:35:19.160 right data.

00:35:20.180 But here's how

00:35:20.760 I would do it.

00:35:22.260 So I agree

00:35:23.100 with Dana Perino

00:35:23.940 and Jake

00:35:24.500 Novak,

00:35:25.640 two of those

00:35:26.080 smarter people

00:35:26.940 who observe

00:35:28.180 the world,

00:35:29.020 just in general.

00:35:30.060 They're usually

00:35:30.480 on the right

00:35:30.940 side of stuff

00:35:31.480 if you

00:35:32.480 follow them.

00:35:33.080 But here

00:35:35.440 are the

00:35:35.680 factors that

00:35:36.300 I think

00:35:36.580 we should

00:35:36.860 put into

00:35:37.220 it.

00:35:37.440 So first

00:35:37.920 of all,

00:35:38.220 I would

00:35:38.400 take this

00:35:38.820 as a

00:35:39.360 stake in

00:35:40.620 the sand.

00:35:41.300 I would

00:35:41.520 say,

00:35:42.300 if you

00:35:42.800 were going

00:35:43.080 to send

00:35:43.360 people back

00:35:43.880 to work,

00:35:44.380 we should

00:35:44.760 not kid

00:35:45.300 ourselves

00:35:45.840 that it'll

00:35:46.800 be 100%

00:35:47.440 safe,

00:35:48.020 because obviously

00:35:48.880 it's not.

00:35:49.980 So we should

00:35:50.620 set some

00:35:51.320 kind of a

00:35:51.900 level of

00:35:52.980 risk that

00:35:54.720 if you are

00:35:55.260 below that

00:35:55.940 risk,

00:35:56.220 you can go

00:35:56.700 back to

00:35:57.060 work.

00:35:57.860 But if you're

00:35:58.600 above that

00:35:59.040 level of

00:35:59.480 risk,

00:36:00.160 maybe you wait

00:36:00.840 a little

00:36:01.060 while.

00:36:01.360 And here

00:36:02.340 are the

00:36:02.580 factors that

00:36:03.480 I believe

00:36:04.240 we could

00:36:06.040 accurately say

00:36:07.260 determine your

00:36:08.040 risk.

00:36:09.260 Now, of

00:36:09.680 course, every

00:36:10.640 person is

00:36:11.260 individual, so

00:36:12.580 you're not

00:36:12.960 going to be

00:36:13.220 able to

00:36:13.500 protect every

00:36:14.200 person.

00:36:15.360 Any guidelines

00:36:16.460 you have will

00:36:17.260 necessarily result

00:36:18.440 in somebody

00:36:18.980 who probably

00:36:20.220 had a high

00:36:20.680 risk but

00:36:21.220 didn't know

00:36:21.720 it, goes

00:36:22.740 to work and

00:36:23.380 ends up

00:36:24.060 dead.

00:36:24.620 So don't

00:36:25.820 think in

00:36:26.200 terms of

00:36:26.600 reducing risk

00:36:27.280 to zero.

00:36:28.560 And I

00:36:28.740 think if we

00:36:29.200 were to

00:36:29.480 reduce the

00:36:30.080 risk of

00:36:31.200 going back

00:36:31.620 to work

00:36:32.040 to, let's

00:36:32.780 say, normal

00:36:33.940 flu season

00:36:34.800 levels, whatever

00:36:36.580 that is, then

00:36:38.200 we'd probably be

00:36:38.840 okay with at

00:36:39.680 least the part

00:36:41.020 of the world

00:36:41.520 that would

00:36:42.600 only have

00:36:43.380 normal flu

00:36:44.420 level risk.

00:36:46.280 We'd probably

00:36:46.980 let them go

00:36:47.460 back to work.

00:36:49.300 And here are

00:36:49.640 the factors that

00:36:50.300 would determine

00:36:50.760 whether they

00:36:51.260 have regular

00:36:51.900 flu risk or

00:36:53.400 extra coronavirus

00:36:54.420 risk.

00:36:55.840 My favorite

00:36:56.400 estimate is that

00:36:57.040 80 to 90% of

00:36:58.140 the hospitalized

00:36:58.840 people are

00:36:59.640 overweight.

00:37:01.200 could we

00:37:02.480 in this

00:37:03.140 country say

00:37:04.560 here's the

00:37:05.000 deal, if

00:37:05.840 your BMI is

00:37:07.360 above this

00:37:07.840 number, you're

00:37:08.660 not safe.

00:37:10.320 Now, body

00:37:11.060 mass index is

00:37:11.960 of course dicey

00:37:13.000 because muscular

00:37:13.740 people look fat

00:37:14.920 if you weigh

00:37:15.820 them because

00:37:16.300 muscle weighs

00:37:16.860 more.

00:37:17.480 But I think

00:37:17.880 we could work

00:37:18.380 through some

00:37:19.020 of that.

00:37:20.260 So here's the

00:37:20.920 first thing.

00:37:21.840 It's politically

00:37:22.620 incorrect to

00:37:23.760 say fat people

00:37:24.600 stay home.

00:37:26.580 We're in an

00:37:27.500 emergency.

00:37:28.940 This is an

00:37:29.540 emergency.

00:37:29.980 All the

00:37:31.620 rules about

00:37:32.200 polite behavior

00:37:33.000 are out the

00:37:33.480 window.

00:37:34.580 So let me

00:37:34.940 say this as

00:37:35.880 directly as I

00:37:38.480 can.

00:37:39.780 When some

00:37:40.600 people get to

00:37:41.260 go back to

00:37:41.800 work, fat

00:37:43.540 people got to

00:37:44.160 stay home

00:37:44.620 because you

00:37:46.380 don't have the

00:37:46.840 same risk.

00:37:48.400 I'm sorry, fat

00:37:49.900 people have to

00:37:50.480 stay home.

00:37:51.320 Now, I'm not

00:37:51.880 fat shaming.

00:37:53.000 I'm not giving

00:37:53.800 you any advice.

00:37:55.020 I'm just

00:37:56.240 saying the

00:37:56.760 math suggests

00:37:58.380 that we will

00:37:58.980 have a national

00:37:59.720 tragedy if fat

00:38:01.580 people go to

00:38:02.140 work until the

00:38:03.760 virus is done.

00:38:04.660 So I think we

00:38:05.500 have to grow up

00:38:06.120 a little bit.

00:38:07.300 I'm using a

00:38:08.540 provocative word

00:38:09.400 and I'm saying

00:38:09.820 fat because that

00:38:10.460 sounds insulting.

00:38:11.620 But I'm trying to

00:38:12.140 make the point

00:38:12.740 that the moment

00:38:14.160 you're complaining

00:38:14.900 about that, the

00:38:16.140 political correctness

00:38:17.320 of it, then you

00:38:18.240 don't understand

00:38:18.860 what an emergency

00:38:19.600 is.

00:38:20.480 It's an

00:38:20.840 emergency.

00:38:21.160 If we have

00:38:23.020 to tell fat

00:38:23.580 people to stay

00:38:24.200 home, okay, we

00:38:25.300 can call it

00:38:25.780 overweight, we

00:38:26.580 can put it in

00:38:27.400 terms of BMI, so

00:38:28.360 we're polite.

00:38:29.200 We're still

00:38:29.780 civilized, so we

00:38:31.320 can put it in

00:38:31.860 polite terms, that's

00:38:32.740 fine.

00:38:33.660 But if we're

00:38:34.260 getting worked

00:38:34.760 up about you

00:38:35.740 can't tell fat

00:38:36.920 people to stay

00:38:37.560 home, we've

00:38:38.940 got to get over

00:38:39.380 that because part

00:38:41.080 of the answer is

00:38:41.920 going to be fat

00:38:42.480 people stay

00:38:43.000 home.

00:38:43.360 I'm sorry, that

00:38:43.920 is going to be

00:38:44.420 the answer on

00:38:45.600 day one of

00:38:46.320 people going

00:38:46.800 back to work.

00:38:48.760 Assuming that

00:38:49.440 the data supports

00:38:50.220 that.

00:38:50.440 And I think

00:38:51.260 it probably

00:38:51.540 does.

00:38:52.760 The next

00:38:53.380 factor would

00:38:53.900 be whether

00:38:54.280 you could

00:38:54.660 isolate yourself

00:38:55.440 at work.

00:38:56.040 Do you have

00:38:56.380 outdoor work?

00:38:57.800 If it's

00:38:58.140 outdoor work

00:38:58.900 or if it's

00:38:59.280 isolated work

00:39:00.200 or you're in

00:39:01.600 a cubicle

00:39:02.200 environment and

00:39:03.040 only one out

00:39:04.700 of five of

00:39:05.600 you are going

00:39:06.060 back to work

00:39:06.720 because the

00:39:07.140 rest of you

00:39:07.560 can telecommute,

00:39:08.940 can you check

00:39:09.500 the box that

00:39:10.120 says, yeah, I

00:39:10.960 can easily stay

00:39:11.860 more than six

00:39:12.600 feet away from

00:39:13.120 people?

00:39:14.940 Could you

00:39:15.820 have a factor

00:39:17.020 for your age?

00:39:18.180 Of course, age

00:39:18.920 is a big

00:39:19.280 factor.

00:39:19.660 So if you're

00:39:20.580 younger, you

00:39:21.180 get to go

00:39:21.560 back first.

00:39:22.760 How about if

00:39:23.180 you're already

00:39:23.600 recovered?

00:39:25.340 Soon, we hope,

00:39:26.260 we'll have enough

00:39:26.720 tests to know if

00:39:27.520 somebody has the

00:39:28.040 antibodies.

00:39:28.940 So obviously, if

00:39:29.880 you're already

00:39:30.300 recovered, that's

00:39:31.920 good.

00:39:32.480 How about having

00:39:33.260 an app to track

00:39:34.700 your contacts?

00:39:35.900 And you can't go

00:39:36.380 back to it.

00:39:36.760 These are just

00:39:37.200 brainstorming ideas.

00:39:38.740 How about an

00:39:39.380 app that uses

00:39:40.440 your, let's say,

00:39:41.900 your Bluetooth?

00:39:43.420 And I think you

00:39:44.160 could do this.

00:39:45.680 You have to

00:39:46.400 turn on your

00:39:46.960 Bluetooth and

00:39:47.780 your app, and

00:39:49.140 you have to

00:39:49.460 have the app

00:39:50.100 that lets you

00:39:51.060 go back to

00:39:51.600 work.

00:39:52.380 So again, just

00:39:53.040 brainstorming here.

00:39:54.240 So if you, in

00:39:55.340 order to get the

00:39:56.540 go-ahead to go

00:39:57.420 back to work, if

00:39:58.180 you meet these

00:39:58.700 other criteria, you

00:40:00.120 also have to have

00:40:01.020 your app on.

00:40:02.520 Wi-Fi has to be

00:40:03.420 on.

00:40:04.040 And the only

00:40:04.640 reason is it

00:40:05.700 identifies people

00:40:06.680 you're near.

00:40:07.200 So if it turns

00:40:08.680 out later you

00:40:09.360 get it, the

00:40:10.720 government can

00:40:11.320 just open up

00:40:12.740 the app, they

00:40:14.140 can see all the

00:40:14.920 times that your

00:40:15.940 Bluetooth was

00:40:18.020 close enough to

00:40:18.720 somebody else's

00:40:19.300 Bluetooth, sends

00:40:21.020 them a text

00:40:21.480 message that

00:40:22.600 says you are

00:40:23.180 within six feet

00:40:24.280 of somebody who

00:40:25.580 is infected, maybe

00:40:27.240 you should isolate,

00:40:28.100 or whatever the

00:40:28.660 recommendation is.

00:40:30.640 What about

00:40:31.420 testing people for

00:40:32.580 these ACE2

00:40:33.440 receptors in their

00:40:36.400 lungs?

00:40:37.200 There's strong

00:40:38.560 evidence that that

00:40:39.440 makes a difference.

00:40:41.520 Let's say if you've

00:40:42.480 had that test, that's

00:40:44.240 another factor.

00:40:46.140 Another factor would

00:40:47.360 be whether you

00:40:47.880 could isolate at

00:40:48.840 home, not just at

00:40:50.280 work.

00:40:51.260 So in order to be

00:40:52.340 allowed to go to

00:40:53.500 work and then come

00:40:55.020 back into your

00:40:55.620 house, you're going

00:40:57.000 to have to

00:40:57.360 demonstrate that

00:40:58.160 there's no old

00:40:58.960 person in your

00:40:59.540 house who can't

00:41:00.180 be isolated.

00:41:01.880 So you'd have to

00:41:02.880 have some criteria

00:41:03.640 because you're also

00:41:04.320 bringing the risk

00:41:05.180 back into your

00:41:05.760 house.

00:41:06.020 So that could be

00:41:06.960 a factor.

00:41:09.000 Could we take all

00:41:10.140 the old people who 1.00

00:41:11.180 live with young

00:41:11.880 people and put

00:41:13.980 those old people in 1.00

00:41:14.880 hotels for a few

00:41:15.720 months?

00:41:16.520 Because there's a

00:41:17.200 whole bunch of

00:41:17.600 hotels that are

00:41:18.400 available, right?

00:41:19.640 Could you say,

00:41:20.540 yes, this household

00:41:22.080 needs their breadwinner,

00:41:25.080 let's say, to go to

00:41:25.760 work, or breadwinners,

00:41:27.880 but you can't allow it

00:41:29.460 if grandma's still in

00:41:30.700 the house and there's

00:41:32.340 just too many people

00:41:32.980 in the house.

00:41:33.320 So maybe grandma

00:41:34.500 goes to stay at

00:41:35.920 the Fairmont

00:41:36.740 because there are

00:41:38.700 no regular guests

00:41:39.480 there anyway, and

00:41:40.480 she just gets a 0.98

00:41:41.420 better isolation

00:41:42.120 situation.

00:41:43.320 So maybe that's a

00:41:44.040 possibility.

00:41:45.540 How about you have

00:41:46.320 to report every day,

00:41:47.480 could be also on the

00:41:48.460 same app I was

00:41:49.240 talking about,

00:41:50.240 whether today you

00:41:51.580 have your sense of

00:41:52.440 smell and taste.

00:41:53.640 Because apparently

00:41:54.540 the Google searches

00:41:55.900 for losing my sense

00:41:57.420 of smell go through

00:41:59.580 the roof in places

00:42:01.240 where there are

00:42:01.720 hot spots, because

00:42:02.600 that seems to be a

00:42:03.660 risk, you lose your

00:42:05.100 sense of taste and

00:42:06.180 smell.

00:42:07.360 And maybe take your

00:42:08.500 temperature every day.

00:42:09.500 So maybe your

00:42:10.020 requirement to go back

00:42:10.940 to work is you have

00:42:11.680 to have any one of

00:42:13.220 the reliable testing

00:42:14.780 devices, maybe it's

00:42:17.660 queued into your app

00:42:18.920 so it feeds it in

00:42:20.160 automatically, I don't

00:42:21.060 know if that's

00:42:21.480 necessary, or maybe

00:42:22.420 you enter it.

00:42:23.440 But you have to

00:42:24.020 enter your actual

00:42:25.120 temperature every day.

00:42:26.880 Now, would anybody

00:42:28.600 lie about that?

00:42:29.600 You know, maybe

00:42:30.460 they've got a little

00:42:31.260 fever, or they

00:42:32.560 didn't check it

00:42:34.340 today?

00:42:34.960 Would they lie about

00:42:35.980 it and say, no, I

00:42:36.980 need to go to work,

00:42:37.700 so I'm not going to

00:42:38.260 say I have a little

00:42:38.860 fever?

00:42:39.420 They might.

00:42:40.560 But remember, this

00:42:41.200 is not a 100% safety

00:42:43.000 situation.

00:42:43.880 This is reducing the

00:42:45.140 risk to maybe normal

00:42:47.400 flu levels.

00:42:51.740 So, here is my

00:42:53.180 second suggestion.

00:42:54.440 As we've watched the

00:42:55.940 performance of the

00:42:57.300 task force, do you

00:42:59.060 have confidence that

00:43:00.160 the task force in its

00:43:01.260 current composition

00:43:03.680 would be able to

00:43:05.300 come up with a

00:43:05.900 checklist the way

00:43:06.960 that I just

00:43:07.480 described it that

00:43:08.840 would accurately let

00:43:09.900 you check off the

00:43:10.700 boxes that applied

00:43:11.660 and then score

00:43:13.580 yourself and say,

00:43:14.580 ah, okay, looks like

00:43:16.100 I can go back to

00:43:16.840 work, but then maybe

00:43:18.000 you have to print it

00:43:18.720 out in case a police

00:43:20.060 officer asks you.

00:43:21.160 You might have to

00:43:21.860 show it to them and

00:43:22.560 say, yeah, here's my

00:43:24.080 checklist.

00:43:24.840 You can see I'm

00:43:25.920 qualified to go back

00:43:26.800 to work.

00:43:27.120 I don't think the

00:43:29.900 task force is

00:43:30.580 qualified to do

00:43:31.360 this, because what

00:43:32.960 we've seen so far

00:43:34.160 does not suggest the

00:43:36.140 level of competence

00:43:37.300 that would be

00:43:38.400 required to do the

00:43:40.280 calculation of when

00:43:42.020 to go back to work.

00:43:42.900 Am I wrong about

00:43:43.500 that?

00:43:44.360 Has the task force

00:43:45.800 shown the minimum

00:43:47.420 level of competence

00:43:48.520 to calculate what I

00:43:50.600 said needs to be

00:43:51.360 complemented?

00:43:51.960 I don't think so.

00:43:53.360 I don't even think

00:43:53.940 close.

00:43:54.200 Remember, they

00:43:55.080 were wrong on

00:43:55.720 masks.

00:43:56.900 They still can't

00:43:57.580 tell us how much

00:43:58.220 PPE we need.

00:43:59.340 These are pretty

00:43:59.840 basic things.

00:44:01.420 I would say that

00:44:02.480 the task force, it's

00:44:04.580 unlikely that they'll

00:44:05.520 ever have the

00:44:06.020 capability to do

00:44:06.980 this as well as

00:44:08.640 they should be

00:44:09.100 done.

00:44:09.980 So what do you

00:44:10.680 do?

00:44:11.700 I think the public

00:44:12.560 has to do it.

00:44:14.220 Now, that means

00:44:15.320 that lots of people

00:44:16.160 are trying it and

00:44:16.960 maybe somebody does

00:44:18.120 it well and that

00:44:19.080 one wins, but I

00:44:20.360 think the public is

00:44:21.360 going to have to

00:44:21.800 come up with a

00:44:22.340 checklist.

00:44:22.660 Maybe it's

00:44:24.160 somebody building a

00:44:24.960 website that lets

00:44:26.360 you do it, or an

00:44:27.220 app.

00:44:27.880 The website's

00:44:28.420 faster.

00:44:30.300 Maybe it's just

00:44:31.180 somebody publishes

00:44:32.140 an article that

00:44:32.800 says this is the

00:44:33.460 way I would do

00:44:34.040 it.

00:44:34.800 But I don't think

00:44:36.180 it would be a

00:44:37.320 good idea, in

00:44:38.580 fact, it would be a

00:44:39.260 terrible idea, to

00:44:40.700 just assume that the

00:44:41.780 task force will come

00:44:42.800 up with an idea as

00:44:44.020 good as the one I

00:44:44.720 just described, or

00:44:46.040 better.

00:44:46.880 I don't think you

00:44:47.840 can count on that,

00:44:49.320 because nothing

00:44:49.920 they've done so far

00:44:50.860 suggests that level

00:44:51.940 of competence.

00:44:52.660 somebody says,

00:44:57.020 Mark Cuban and

00:44:57.680 you should run

00:44:58.480 this.

00:44:59.280 Well, we've

00:45:00.180 both got a lot

00:45:00.680 going on, but

00:45:01.520 yeah, Mark

00:45:04.880 Cuban has really 1.00

00:45:05.740 stepped up, so

00:45:08.600 I could not say

00:45:10.040 enough good

00:45:10.480 things about

00:45:11.180 his level of

00:45:13.360 patriotic

00:45:14.020 leadership that

00:45:15.240 he's showing

00:45:15.660 here.

00:45:15.880 So that's my

00:45:18.200 suggestion, is

00:45:19.640 that we, the

00:45:20.180 public, if you

00:45:21.640 think you could

00:45:22.260 take a stab at

00:45:23.080 this, even if it

00:45:23.960 needed to be

00:45:24.460 refined, take a

00:45:25.920 stab at it, because

00:45:26.720 I think the

00:45:27.140 government needs

00:45:27.720 your help.

00:45:28.720 And I'll even go

00:45:29.500 further and

00:45:31.380 suggest, what

00:45:34.780 would you call

00:45:35.260 this?

00:45:35.540 not, what is it

00:45:38.080 you call it when

00:45:38.680 you don't comply

00:45:39.380 with the

00:45:39.700 government?

00:45:41.320 There's a word

00:45:41.980 for that, some

00:45:43.000 kind of protest.

00:45:44.340 But we could

00:45:45.120 easily get to the

00:45:45.880 point where the

00:45:46.400 people decide to

00:45:47.320 go back to work

00:45:48.060 before the

00:45:48.600 government says

00:45:49.340 yes.

00:45:49.680 we could easily

00:45:52.460 decide as a

00:45:54.420 public that

00:45:56.080 we're just going

00:45:56.700 to go back to

00:45:57.340 work and

00:45:58.580 overwhelm the

00:45:59.420 system.

00:46:00.560 So for example,

00:46:01.560 if one person

00:46:02.560 decides to go

00:46:03.200 back to work

00:46:03.840 against the

00:46:04.520 recommendations,

00:46:05.720 the police go

00:46:06.540 and they say

00:46:06.940 you can't do

00:46:07.480 that, and

00:46:08.020 they stop it.

00:46:09.540 But if

00:46:10.100 everybody went

00:46:10.720 back to work,

00:46:11.640 it wouldn't be

00:46:12.220 possible to

00:46:12.900 enforce it,

00:46:13.480 right?

00:46:13.940 Or if some

00:46:14.840 large number

00:46:15.500 went back to

00:46:16.000 work, it would

00:46:16.360 just be more

00:46:16.860 than the system

00:46:17.560 could police.

00:46:19.680 And we might

00:46:20.100 get to that

00:46:20.640 point, but I

00:46:21.860 would say that

00:46:22.800 we should not

00:46:23.420 get to that

00:46:23.900 point unless

00:46:24.600 we, the

00:46:25.060 public, have

00:46:26.240 come up with

00:46:26.820 some kind of

00:46:27.340 general consensus

00:46:28.680 checklist that

00:46:30.420 says, look, I'm

00:46:31.260 not going to

00:46:31.600 wait for the

00:46:32.020 government to

00:46:32.780 approve me.

00:46:33.740 I'm going to

00:46:34.300 do my own

00:46:34.820 checklist.

00:46:36.240 At least I

00:46:36.940 did the work.

00:46:38.100 I thought it

00:46:39.000 through.

00:46:39.980 I calculated

00:46:40.820 the odds.

00:46:41.780 But here's my

00:46:42.380 checklist,

00:46:43.040 government.

00:46:43.540 It would have

00:46:43.920 been good if

00:46:44.400 you gave me

00:46:45.000 this.

00:46:46.020 But if you're

00:46:46.560 not going to

00:46:46.900 give me the

00:46:47.420 checklist, I'm

00:46:49.040 going to give

00:46:49.340 it to you.

00:46:50.700 So I'm

00:46:51.140 going back to

00:46:51.740 work.

00:46:53.020 Sue me, throw 0.96

00:46:53.700 me in jail, here's

00:46:55.380 why I did it.

00:46:56.380 Good luck.

00:46:57.120 Take that to a

00:46:57.740 jury.

00:46:58.960 Arrest me.

00:46:59.940 Give me a jury

00:47:00.720 trial.

00:47:01.700 And I'm going to

00:47:02.060 show the jury what

00:47:03.600 I did and why I

00:47:04.900 went back to work and

00:47:05.740 why that risk was

00:47:06.700 reasonable based on

00:47:07.580 these calculations.

00:47:08.800 And then I'm going

00:47:09.280 to tell the jury that

00:47:10.080 the government should

00:47:11.100 have done that for

00:47:11.940 me, but didn't.

00:47:15.020 Put me in jail.

00:47:16.920 Civil disobedience,

00:47:17.980 yes.

00:47:18.840 So the phrase is

00:47:19.600 civil disobedience.

00:47:20.740 So I think that we

00:47:21.880 should be prepared

00:47:22.720 for civil

00:47:23.980 disobedience.

00:47:25.420 But civil

00:47:26.320 disobedience is

00:47:27.960 keyword civil,

00:47:29.300 right?

00:47:29.840 I'm not talking

00:47:30.480 about riots.

00:47:31.940 I'm talking about

00:47:32.960 intelligent civil

00:47:35.100 disobedience.

00:47:36.260 Civil disobedience

00:47:37.460 done right is

00:47:38.960 really filling in

00:47:40.100 for what the

00:47:40.620 government should

00:47:41.360 have already done

00:47:41.940 for you.

00:47:42.960 I mean, that's

00:47:43.360 why it's civil,

00:47:44.140 right?

00:47:44.660 It's civil because

00:47:46.020 the government really

00:47:46.880 just should have

00:47:47.440 done it and

00:47:48.700 you're embarrassing

00:47:50.200 them into it

00:47:50.860 basically.

00:47:52.040 So I think that we

00:47:53.020 could reach a point

00:47:54.320 where if our

00:47:54.900 government has not

00:47:56.080 given us the

00:47:57.480 checklist of what

00:47:58.780 it takes to go

00:47:59.440 back to work,

00:48:00.320 we should make our

00:48:01.300 own and then go

00:48:02.580 back to work.

00:48:03.740 Civil disobedience.

00:48:05.440 Now I'm not saying

00:48:06.240 when we should do

00:48:07.180 that and we

00:48:08.280 definitely shouldn't

00:48:09.220 do it until,

00:48:10.820 you know,

00:48:11.420 smart people are

00:48:12.360 really happy that we

00:48:13.240 have a checklist

00:48:13.860 that makes sense.

00:48:14.700 now probably the

00:48:16.020 minimum you need

00:48:16.700 to wait for is

00:48:18.020 to have tests

00:48:18.640 available.

00:48:19.840 So I wouldn't do

00:48:20.520 any civil disobedience

00:48:21.820 while you don't

00:48:22.680 have the right

00:48:23.120 tools.

00:48:24.420 But as soon as

00:48:25.080 we get those

00:48:25.680 tools, the

00:48:26.900 ability to, say,

00:48:27.760 test at home

00:48:28.380 rapidly, maybe the

00:48:31.480 ability to test

00:48:32.360 our genetics as

00:48:33.120 well, as soon as

00:48:34.180 we have those

00:48:34.680 tools, I don't

00:48:36.520 think the

00:48:36.900 government can

00:48:37.540 keep us home

00:48:38.260 forever.

00:48:39.840 You know, you

00:48:40.400 feel me?

00:48:41.100 There might be a

00:48:42.720 point where we

00:48:44.220 just have to

00:48:44.760 overrule our

00:48:45.440 government on

00:48:46.020 this, but only

00:48:47.280 intelligently, only

00:48:48.780 intelligently, because

00:48:49.740 then it makes

00:48:50.460 sense.

00:48:53.300 Here are some

00:48:54.140 things, if you

00:48:54.740 want to further

00:48:55.740 reduce your

00:48:56.500 confidence in your

00:48:57.320 government and the

00:48:58.520 news, I want to

00:49:00.160 remind you again the

00:49:01.160 things you heard

00:49:01.820 from me before you

00:49:03.120 heard them from the

00:49:04.120 regular news.

00:49:05.620 Now, I'm not

00:49:06.780 saying that I

00:49:07.460 alone was the

00:49:09.480 first or even

00:49:10.340 close to the

00:49:11.180 first to mention

00:49:12.100 any of these

00:49:12.640 topics.

00:49:13.400 So I'm not

00:49:13.880 saying I

00:49:14.240 started these or

00:49:15.020 I was first.

00:49:15.760 I'm saying that

00:49:16.440 you probably heard

00:49:17.460 them first from

00:49:19.180 me.

00:49:19.840 What does that

00:49:20.300 tell you about

00:49:20.920 the Internet and

00:49:23.320 its information

00:49:24.060 base versus the

00:49:25.460 so-called

00:49:26.880 legitimate news?

00:49:28.340 So here are

00:49:28.740 things you heard

00:49:29.400 first from me.

00:49:30.340 I didn't make

00:49:30.840 any of these up.

00:49:31.560 I heard them

00:49:31.960 from other

00:49:32.380 people.

00:49:33.340 But the

00:49:34.040 hydrochloroquine,

00:49:35.180 the masks, that

00:49:36.780 might have some

00:49:37.720 potential, we

00:49:38.340 don't know yet.

00:49:39.320 You heard from

00:49:39.840 me that the

00:49:40.340 convalescent blood

00:49:41.840 treatment might

00:49:42.800 have a lot of

00:49:43.280 potential, and

00:49:44.420 now that's the

00:49:45.740 big talk.

00:49:47.340 Again, these

00:49:48.080 didn't come from

00:49:48.680 me.

00:49:49.260 That one came

00:49:49.860 from Ian.

00:49:51.180 They all came

00:49:51.800 from some other

00:49:52.600 source.

00:49:54.320 I said that

00:49:54.780 masks work.

00:49:55.920 Where was the

00:49:56.340 first place you

00:49:57.060 heard that maybe

00:49:58.120 we could retrofit

00:49:59.140 the CPAP, and

00:50:01.040 there's a thing

00:50:01.500 called a BiPAP?

00:50:02.640 Where did you

00:50:03.140 hear that maybe

00:50:03.640 we could retrofit

00:50:04.400 them and turn

00:50:05.060 them into

00:50:05.500 ventilators?

00:50:06.560 Well, it's

00:50:06.900 happening.

00:50:07.920 Who was the

00:50:08.540 first person who

00:50:09.220 told you maybe

00:50:09.820 you could split

00:50:10.500 a ventilator

00:50:11.140 and have two

00:50:12.320 people on it?

00:50:13.100 Probably me.

00:50:14.220 Right now, that's

00:50:14.900 in the news.

00:50:16.060 Who was the

00:50:16.460 first person who

00:50:17.080 told you there

00:50:17.480 was probably a

00:50:18.280 genetic component?

00:50:19.840 You probably heard

00:50:20.280 that somewhere else.

00:50:21.060 But it's still

00:50:21.600 not, there's still

00:50:23.320 not much chatter

00:50:24.280 about it.

00:50:24.820 I tweeted an

00:50:26.480 article about it,

00:50:27.380 so there is now

00:50:28.120 some reporting on

00:50:29.040 that.

00:50:29.320 The ACE2 thing

00:50:31.520 seems to matter.

00:50:32.240 And who was the

00:50:35.040 first to tell

00:50:35.560 you that you

00:50:36.660 didn't know it

00:50:37.220 yet, but there

00:50:38.000 would be fast

00:50:38.760 advances in

00:50:40.140 blood testing

00:50:40.820 because that

00:50:42.220 technology existed,

00:50:43.420 it just hadn't

00:50:43.920 worked its way

00:50:44.520 into the

00:50:44.800 mainstream yet,

00:50:45.800 and now you've

00:50:46.660 seen it.

00:50:47.060 A bunch of

00:50:47.620 companies just

00:50:48.440 popped up,

00:50:49.240 and suddenly

00:50:50.020 they've got

00:50:50.920 little devices,

00:50:51.980 which is what I

00:50:52.500 told you.

00:50:52.920 It would be

00:50:53.200 tabletop devices

00:50:54.120 that could do

00:50:55.380 advanced blood

00:50:56.200 tests really

00:50:57.020 easily.

00:50:57.360 And this is

00:50:58.280 because after

00:50:58.840 9-11, the

00:51:00.660 government labs

00:51:01.460 built that

00:51:02.180 technology, and

00:51:03.180 then they

00:51:03.480 licensed it to

00:51:04.760 startups.

00:51:05.480 So I knew, I'd

00:51:06.320 seen the

00:51:06.660 startups a few

00:51:08.020 years ago, so I

00:51:09.140 knew that this

00:51:09.620 technology was

00:51:10.540 just ready to be

00:51:12.120 implemented, and

00:51:13.300 sure enough,

00:51:14.220 within a few

00:51:15.100 weeks, they were

00:51:16.940 already building

00:51:17.800 lots of machines

00:51:18.520 that could do

00:51:18.940 that sort of

00:51:19.840 stuff.

00:51:22.880 We're starting

00:51:23.700 to have the

00:51:24.080 conversation about

00:51:24.900 whether economists

00:51:25.700 or epidemiologists

00:51:27.360 should make the

00:51:29.120 decision about

00:51:29.740 going back to

00:51:30.340 work.

00:51:30.660 It's exactly the

00:51:31.400 right question, and

00:51:33.220 it highlights the

00:51:34.760 talent stack

00:51:35.660 problem, which

00:51:37.340 is if somebody's

00:51:39.280 just an economist,

00:51:40.760 do you want them

00:51:41.680 making the decision

00:51:42.580 of when we go

00:51:43.300 back to work?

00:51:44.200 Or if somebody's

00:51:45.180 just a doctor, no

00:51:47.240 matter how

00:51:47.660 qualified, do you

00:51:48.960 want them to make

00:51:49.540 the decision?

00:51:50.380 Because you really

00:51:50.980 need somebody who

00:51:51.820 can see the whole

00:51:53.060 field, right?

00:51:53.780 And that's going

00:51:58.920 to be tough.

00:52:00.140 So the problem

00:52:01.060 is that the

00:52:01.900 doctors are going

00:52:03.700 to want to

00:52:04.340 reduce deaths

00:52:06.740 to zero, and

00:52:08.160 they're not really

00:52:08.920 going to be focused

00:52:09.880 on the economics

00:52:10.880 of it, even

00:52:11.520 though they

00:52:11.880 understand that

00:52:12.640 bad economics

00:52:13.380 could lead to

00:52:13.920 death, too.

00:52:14.920 So it's the

00:52:15.440 nature of the

00:52:15.920 job that they're

00:52:16.600 probably going to

00:52:17.280 focus on near-term

00:52:18.420 deaths, whereas

00:52:19.820 the economists

00:52:20.480 might say, well,

00:52:21.540 people are going

00:52:22.920 to die no

00:52:23.440 matter what, so

00:52:24.520 what's our best

00:52:25.600 overall situation?

00:52:27.700 So keep an eye

00:52:28.420 on that, and

00:52:29.500 make sure that

00:52:31.060 people with the

00:52:31.740 right talent stacks

00:52:32.540 are making the

00:52:33.200 suggestions.

00:52:37.760 All right.

00:52:40.900 Today's death

00:52:41.780 rate is lower

00:52:42.460 than yesterday's,

00:52:43.340 or are you

00:52:43.900 saying that

00:52:44.580 yesterday's was

00:52:45.680 lower than the

00:52:46.420 day before,

00:52:48.240 which we know

00:52:49.140 to be true?

00:52:49.940 So we still

00:52:50.560 don't know about

00:52:51.060 today's, and

00:52:51.660 it's too early

00:52:52.160 to know about

00:52:52.720 today, right?

00:52:54.180 The day just

00:52:55.220 started.

00:52:59.240 Testing is our

00:53:00.100 way out.

00:53:00.620 Yes, of course

00:53:01.180 it is.

00:53:02.040 So testing is

00:53:03.060 our way out.

00:53:03.920 So tell me,

00:53:05.260 how long will

00:53:05.960 it be before

00:53:06.820 you can test

00:53:07.660 yourself at

00:53:08.200 home?

00:53:09.360 No idea,

00:53:10.180 right?

00:53:10.780 You have no

00:53:11.700 idea.

00:53:13.720 That's the

00:53:14.300 failure of the

00:53:14.880 task force.

00:53:16.060 If the task

00:53:16.880 force can't

00:53:17.460 give you even

00:53:18.040 a range of

00:53:19.640 when you might

00:53:20.200 be able to

00:53:20.580 test yourself

00:53:21.120 at home

00:53:21.500 even if you

00:53:22.020 don't have

00:53:22.320 symptoms to

00:53:23.280 find out if

00:53:23.760 you have

00:53:23.980 antibodies,

00:53:24.840 if they

00:53:25.320 can't even

00:53:25.720 give you

00:53:26.040 a range,

00:53:27.640 that's not

00:53:28.560 competent.

00:53:29.880 So I'll

00:53:31.140 say it as

00:53:31.520 many times

00:53:31.980 as I need

00:53:32.400 to,

00:53:32.980 the task

00:53:33.520 force is

00:53:34.280 not achieving

00:53:35.840 the minimum

00:53:36.480 level of

00:53:37.120 competence.

00:53:38.400 Because if

00:53:39.100 they did,

00:53:39.500 they'd have

00:53:39.800 estimates for

00:53:40.380 things even

00:53:40.900 if they're

00:53:41.240 wrong,

00:53:41.620 even if they

00:53:42.000 have to

00:53:42.200 change them,

00:53:43.140 even if they

00:53:43.700 have to update

00:53:44.280 them every

00:53:44.700 ten minutes.

00:53:46.200 No estimates,

00:53:47.600 no competence.

00:53:48.360 It's as

00:53:48.840 simple as

00:53:49.200 that.

00:53:50.160 So if you

00:53:52.500 had to

00:53:52.800 guess,

00:53:53.960 will you

00:53:54.400 have a

00:53:54.760 way to

00:53:55.080 test yourself

00:53:55.880 easily at

00:53:58.860 home for

00:54:00.120 antibodies in

00:54:01.460 a month?

00:54:02.420 You have no

00:54:03.340 idea.

00:54:04.240 Two months?

00:54:04.900 You have no

00:54:05.920 idea.

00:54:07.020 Three months?

00:54:08.240 No idea.

00:54:09.220 That's completely

00:54:10.240 unacceptable.

00:54:11.580 Completely.

00:54:11.960 because the

00:54:13.420 task force,

00:54:14.480 for example,

00:54:15.660 knows which

00:54:16.340 companies have

00:54:17.660 committed to

00:54:18.840 be able to

00:54:19.340 make test

00:54:20.260 kits.

00:54:20.980 Those companies

00:54:21.800 surely have

00:54:22.780 given them

00:54:23.260 estimates of

00:54:24.620 how much

00:54:24.960 they can

00:54:25.300 produce.

00:54:26.420 So if you

00:54:26.960 know who's

00:54:28.220 producing it

00:54:28.880 and how much

00:54:29.300 they can

00:54:29.640 produce,

00:54:30.680 and you

00:54:31.000 know how

00:54:31.260 many people

00:54:31.740 are going

00:54:32.000 to need

00:54:32.300 it,

00:54:33.600 tell us.

00:54:35.180 Tell us.

00:54:36.000 That's the

00:54:36.340 minimum level

00:54:36.940 of competence.

00:54:38.240 Gosh,

00:54:38.840 people,

00:54:39.200 we can make

00:54:39.680 a million a

00:54:40.240 week,

00:54:40.560 but until

00:54:41.920 we can

00:54:42.960 make $20

00:54:44.020 million a

00:54:44.440 week,

00:54:44.780 we're not

00:54:45.220 going to

00:54:45.400 be on top

00:54:45.880 of this,

00:54:46.880 whatever the

00:54:47.560 number is.

00:54:48.540 So tell us.

00:54:51.080 Tell us.

00:54:51.980 Yeah,

00:54:52.360 in the

00:54:53.320 unrelated story,

00:54:54.520 the FBI

00:54:55.020 apparently lied

00:54:56.360 or did not

00:54:57.740 follow the

00:54:58.400 rules on

00:54:59.220 every single

00:54:59.960 FISA application.

00:55:01.600 I'm not even

00:55:02.400 following that

00:55:03.040 story because

00:55:04.180 all of our

00:55:05.500 attention has

00:55:06.100 been diverted.

00:55:07.120 But just

00:55:07.420 think about

00:55:08.000 the fact

00:55:08.480 that the

00:55:10.460 World Health

00:55:10.980 Organization

00:55:11.600 lied about

00:55:12.500 everything.

00:55:14.780 Our experts

00:55:15.840 lied about

00:55:16.400 masks,

00:55:16.980 they lied

00:55:17.320 about supplies

00:55:18.180 of things,

00:55:19.820 the early

00:55:22.260 numbers don't

00:55:23.000 seem to

00:55:23.500 match what

00:55:24.140 we're already

00:55:24.640 experiencing

00:55:25.200 from the

00:55:25.720 models.

00:55:26.660 So all the

00:55:27.380 credibility of

00:55:28.200 those types

00:55:29.300 of experts

00:55:29.920 right out

00:55:31.080 the window.

00:55:32.260 At the

00:55:32.800 same time,

00:55:34.460 our FBI,

00:55:35.520 who we used

00:55:35.980 to think was

00:55:36.520 credible,

00:55:37.360 we find out

00:55:38.020 has been

00:55:38.380 massively,

00:55:40.040 what would

00:55:41.760 you call it,

00:55:42.180 I don't

00:55:42.360 know if

00:55:42.560 it's illegal

00:55:43.060 or it's

00:55:43.560 just bad

00:55:43.900 behavior.

00:55:46.180 So I'll

00:55:46.940 tell you,

00:55:47.420 I've never

00:55:47.960 had less

00:55:48.520 trust for

00:55:49.420 the professional

00:55:50.080 class.

00:55:51.200 At the

00:55:51.740 same time,

00:55:52.320 we don't

00:55:52.720 really have

00:55:53.080 a choice.

00:55:53.840 So I

00:55:54.420 will trust

00:55:55.000 my doctor

00:55:55.580 most of

00:55:56.380 the time,

00:55:56.940 and I

00:55:57.520 will go

00:55:58.180 to a

00:55:58.420 hospital if

00:55:58.900 I need

00:55:59.140 it.

00:55:59.240 So I'm

00:55:59.420 still going

00:55:59.700 to use

00:56:00.020 the experts,

00:56:00.920 and if

00:56:01.580 they can

00:56:01.880 produce

00:56:02.240 numbers,

00:56:02.820 I'm

00:56:02.960 probably

00:56:03.180 still going

00:56:03.600 to act

00:56:04.300 based on

00:56:04.840 those,

00:56:05.280 even if

00:56:05.700 they're

00:56:06.020 wrong and

00:56:06.400 they need

00:56:06.680 to update

00:56:07.700 them.

00:56:10.980 All right.

00:56:15.720 Imperfect,

00:56:16.480 I must

00:56:17.140 have

00:56:17.340 estimates.

00:56:20.120 We don't

00:56:20.880 all need

00:56:21.340 tests.

00:56:22.800 Well,

00:56:23.320 we probably

00:56:23.980 don't all

00:56:24.540 need tests,

00:56:25.360 but we

00:56:25.760 probably do

00:56:26.260 need to

00:56:26.680 do enough

00:56:27.320 tests,

00:56:28.140 and wouldn't

00:56:29.020 you like to

00:56:29.520 know if you

00:56:29.960 have the

00:56:30.260 antibodies?

00:56:31.240 So people

00:56:31.680 like me,

00:56:32.360 who experienced

00:56:33.300 some kind

00:56:33.820 of really

00:56:34.340 bad illness

00:56:35.360 in January

00:56:36.040 that I

00:56:36.980 didn't have

00:56:37.320 a name

00:56:37.660 for?

00:56:38.900 I'd like

00:56:39.440 to know.

00:56:40.240 I'd like

00:56:40.640 to know

00:56:40.900 if I

00:56:41.140 already

00:56:41.300 had it,

00:56:42.000 because I'd

00:56:42.660 be leaving

00:56:43.300 the house

00:56:43.560 a lot

00:56:43.800 more if I

00:56:44.200 had.

00:56:45.180 So,

00:56:45.740 yeah,

00:56:46.640 I want

00:56:46.880 to test

00:56:47.260 to know

00:56:47.540 if I

00:56:47.740 have

00:56:47.860 antibodies.

00:56:49.800 Every

00:56:50.160 prediction

00:56:50.600 they make

00:56:51.020 that fails

00:56:51.440 by one

00:56:51.860 hour will

00:56:53.040 still be

00:56:53.420 used as

00:56:53.840 an attack.

00:56:54.880 Yeah,

00:56:55.140 that's too

00:56:56.060 bad.

00:56:56.380 They should

00:56:56.600 do it

00:56:56.840 anyway.

00:56:57.100 Radio

00:57:02.720 free

00:57:03.040 Tom

00:57:03.520 is

00:57:03.780 hardest

00:57:04.060 hit.

00:57:04.500 I don't

00:57:04.880 know what

00:57:05.100 that means.

00:57:08.860 We need

00:57:09.600 incentives.

00:57:10.640 Incentives

00:57:11.080 for what?

00:57:14.360 Somebody

00:57:14.840 says,

00:57:15.200 I don't

00:57:15.380 think they're

00:57:15.760 lying,

00:57:16.460 they just

00:57:16.780 don't know

00:57:17.260 about the

00:57:17.940 availability

00:57:18.880 of equipment.

00:57:20.740 It's a

00:57:21.320 little of

00:57:21.620 both.

00:57:22.720 But not

00:57:23.580 knowing the

00:57:24.180 exact number

00:57:24.860 should not

00:57:26.000 stop you

00:57:26.480 from

00:57:26.680 estimating.

00:57:27.260 You still

00:57:27.560 can do

00:57:27.840 it.

00:57:30.120 All right.

00:57:32.740 That's all

00:57:33.320 I got for

00:57:33.780 now.

00:57:34.460 And I'll

00:57:34.900 talk to

00:57:35.240 you tonight.

00:57:36.940 10pm

00:57:37.440 Eastern,

00:57:38.040 7pm

00:57:38.680 Pacific.

00:57:39.720 Have a

00:57:40.240 good day.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 03, 2020

Episode 889 Scott Adams： Simultaneous Sipping With a Cartoonist Who Needs a Haircut

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