Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 890 Scott Adams： Swaddle With Scott is Happening Now!

00:00:01.000 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum 1.00

00:00:08.000 Oh, that's better. Nice and soft and warm. Just the way I like it.

00:00:20.360 Well, how have all of you been since I saw you last, 12 hours ago?

00:00:25.140 It doesn't seem like 12 hours, does it? Feels like I was just here.

00:00:32.320 Bill Maher is on? Well, he's going to have to wait. You can record him.

00:00:38.520 So, it looks like the number of new deaths spiked quite a bit today.

00:00:43.420 I got all excited because it went down yesterday. It was down from the day before.

00:00:48.700 So, here are the numbers.

00:00:49.600 So, on April 1st, it was 1,049, but it dropped a little on the next day, April 2nd, to 969.

00:00:58.640 But, on the 3rd, it jumped from 969 to 1321.

00:01:04.300 That's a pretty big jump, percentage-wise.

00:01:08.500 So, that's not good.

00:01:09.660 So, I keep complaining about not seeing good numbers for stuff.

00:01:18.680 And, apparently, New York is doing a good job of it.

00:01:22.040 I was not aware that Andrew Cuomo is doing exactly what I keep saying the task force should do,

00:01:30.360 but he's doing it for his state,

00:01:31.700 which is to show how much they think they'll need of each of the pieces of equipment in shortage

00:01:38.260 and then show how many they think they can get.

00:01:41.940 Pretty basic, right?

00:01:44.040 Here's what we think we need.

00:01:45.980 Here's what we think we have.

00:01:49.440 So, why the federal government couldn't do this also is beyond me.

00:01:54.200 But, here's what we know.

00:01:57.900 So, apparently, the predicted amount of ventilators,

00:02:02.220 the prediction changes a little bit,

00:02:04.960 but I think the most current one is that they'll have 25,000 patients

00:02:08.360 who will need them at the peak, at the most,

00:02:14.280 but they only have 15,000 available.

00:02:18.020 So, they have 15,000 available, you know,

00:02:20.700 with all of their different sources in New York City,

00:02:23.860 for 25,000 patients.

00:02:27.820 So, it's really going to make a big difference

00:02:30.540 if that estimate of 25,000 is accurate,

00:02:34.160 because there could be 10,000 people

00:02:36.800 who basically just drown in their own lung juice

00:02:41.220 because we don't have enough ventilators.

00:02:44.260 Now, if I had to bet,

00:02:46.500 I would bet we'll close that gap,

00:02:48.880 meaning that either the number of deaths will be less than this

00:02:53.500 or the, you know, maybe they start giving them,

00:02:57.220 you know, hydroxychloroquine

00:02:58.960 and there are just fewer deaths.

00:03:00.760 That would be the optimist.

00:03:02.500 We don't know yet if that drug works, but maybe.

00:03:07.780 Or I would think we'll get more ventilators there.

00:03:10.220 So, at least that's within,

00:03:12.200 it feels like that's within striking distance, right?

00:03:15.540 It's still an emergency-level problem, no doubt about it,

00:03:19.720 but it feels like we might be able to close that gap.

00:03:23.500 But then I saw, and I was going to print it out,

00:03:26.020 just, I didn't have time before we got on here,

00:03:28.300 but he also showed the number of masks.

00:03:31.620 And I think, you know, correct me if I'm wrong,

00:03:34.000 but the number of masks I think that they would need

00:03:37.140 was something like 20 million.

00:03:39.480 And the number that they have available is

00:03:42.660 one or two million.

00:03:46.700 What?

00:03:48.500 I think I saw that right,

00:03:50.080 that the number of masks they need is 20 million,

00:03:53.080 and the number that they think they can get

00:03:55.300 is one or two.

00:03:58.720 I think I read that right.

00:04:01.660 And some of the other materials are in short supply as well.

00:04:04.560 Now, remember I've been telling you the whole time

00:04:07.600 that you, you being the citizen of the United States,

00:04:12.080 would act differently if it's closer to 0%

00:04:16.380 than it is closer to 90%.

00:04:18.560 This is a pretty good example, right?

00:04:21.140 How do you feel about the fact that New York City

00:04:23.540 might be short, like 90% short,

00:04:29.540 on the most vital thing, the masks?

00:04:32.340 Pretty big problem.

00:04:34.560 Now, even if they start to reuse the masks,

00:04:39.240 that still gets you from, you know,

00:04:41.400 maybe 2 million masks to 4 or 6,

00:04:46.060 and you need 20.

00:04:48.040 So they're not even in the ballpark.

00:04:50.300 And that's with, you all heard that 3M

00:04:52.820 was allowing some sales out of the country.

00:04:56.260 Now, my understanding is probably that

00:04:59.040 it wasn't 3M per se that was letting them out of the country.

00:05:02.040 It was the distributors.

00:05:03.180 And 3M was just selling it to distributors,

00:05:06.920 and distributors are doing what they do,

00:05:08.440 which is sell it wherever they can sell it.

00:05:12.180 But I imagine that 3M could have stopped their distributors

00:05:15.180 from doing that if they required them to do that.

00:05:18.820 So that's a good example of something that

00:05:20.560 clearly was a mistake,

00:05:23.440 meaning that we should have stopped that from the jump.

00:05:26.560 But if we corrected it quickly,

00:05:30.120 that's not so bad.

00:05:31.260 So the president came out and said,

00:05:38.480 yeah, maybe you should wear some.

00:05:40.720 It's recommended but not required.

00:05:43.260 Wear some kind of a face mask when you go out in public.

00:05:47.000 Probably shouldn't be one of those high-grade medical ones

00:05:50.460 because you want to save those for the pros.

00:05:53.720 And then the funniest thing was

00:05:57.200 watching the Surgeon General come on

00:05:59.640 and try to explain why the new recommendation

00:06:02.800 was completely different than the old recommendation.

00:06:06.680 Did you see that?

00:06:08.380 Oh, that was so cringeworthy

00:06:10.220 because he was so busted.

00:06:12.600 And yeah, maybe we'll never know the story

00:06:16.360 of why the original recommendations

00:06:18.840 were so just awfully wrong.

00:06:21.320 I suppose he was believing

00:06:22.820 the World Health Organization, maybe.

00:06:25.780 Or he was acting to reduce shortages.

00:06:28.700 That's possible too.

00:06:30.260 But oh man, I felt so sorry for him

00:06:33.000 trying to explain

00:06:34.760 why he just completely reversed

00:06:37.700 on such a basic obvious thing

00:06:40.000 that we all knew was true.

00:06:41.180 And it took him, what, weeks to come around to it?

00:06:45.620 But here we are.

00:06:46.740 So the president in his inimitable way,

00:06:49.240 in which he...

00:06:50.700 I say this about the president all the time,

00:06:52.840 but it's impossible for him not to be interesting.

00:06:56.380 Whether you think that's a good thing or a bad thing,

00:06:58.780 it's good interesting or bad interesting,

00:07:00.880 he just can't turn it off.

00:07:03.500 And this simple thing talking about

00:07:05.080 this new recommendation for masks,

00:07:07.800 and then he throws in, you know,

00:07:08.940 I'm not going to wear one.

00:07:11.180 So our role model is saying,

00:07:14.120 you know, you might want to wear a mask.

00:07:16.360 Well, I'm not going to.

00:07:18.160 It's optional.

00:07:19.520 Now, when he tried to explain why he wasn't,

00:07:22.220 I think he was going for,

00:07:25.060 it wasn't presidential.

00:07:27.540 Not that anybody was really caring about that

00:07:29.960 at the moment.

00:07:30.700 I mean, at least in terms of the medical issue,

00:07:32.900 you don't care.

00:07:33.360 So nobody would have thought it was unpresidential

00:07:36.660 for him to wear a mask.

00:07:37.860 I think he just didn't want to be photographed in it.

00:07:40.360 He thought he would look silly, maybe.

00:07:42.480 So it was the worst possible reason

00:07:45.340 for not wanting to wear a mask.

00:07:47.480 Here would have been a better answer.

00:07:50.300 Here's the better answer.

00:07:51.940 Well, the reason that we're making it optional

00:07:53.840 is that everybody just really needs

00:07:55.500 to make that choice for themselves.

00:07:56.820 So there's no situation like mine.

00:07:59.960 This is the choice I'm making.

00:08:02.280 You know, you all can get to make your own choices.

00:08:04.560 Make good choices.

00:08:06.000 That's all I would have said.

00:08:07.820 I would have just said,

00:08:08.900 that's the whole point of it being optional

00:08:10.720 is you get to decide about your specific case,

00:08:14.020 weigh all the variables.

00:08:15.620 I would have just gone for that.

00:08:18.800 But his was way more interesting

00:08:20.200 because it's more provocative.

00:08:22.440 He just doesn't know how to be uninteresting.

00:08:24.840 It's impossible.

00:08:25.360 Yeah, and President Trump made the joke about models. 0.92

00:08:33.520 He just couldn't help it.

00:08:35.960 Where is Scott's net death count?

00:08:38.060 I believe that the gross is over 7,000,

00:08:41.440 which means the net would still be quite negative.

00:08:45.920 So, but we added, I think, 40% more deaths

00:08:51.480 today than the day before.

00:08:54.140 So that would suggest it's going to climb up there.

00:08:57.680 Now, are you having the same questions I'm having?

00:09:02.600 Which is why we're not seeing the stories of the gigantic crushes yet.

00:09:10.360 And I worry that the people who are saying,

00:09:13.740 hey, the models said that we would already be at a higher level.

00:09:17.980 Are we missing it by that much?

00:09:22.540 Because the whole point of this is that the increase will be very fast.

00:09:27.300 You know, once it hits that fast part of the curve,

00:09:29.600 every day is going to be much, much more than the last.

00:09:32.820 So, if you were to miss the peak projection by, let's say, a week,

00:09:38.880 let's say the experts were off by one week of where the peak would be,

00:09:44.040 well, that would still give us really, make us really calm today

00:09:47.880 and still all hell could break loose, you know, by next week.

00:09:53.100 But, they told us that last week, right?

00:09:57.340 Shouldn't we already be in critical situation right now?

00:10:02.880 Well, so, this is the damnedest, it's the damnedest situation.

00:10:07.680 You know, we all have to settle on the reality.

00:10:10.580 But there are two of them that are just running full speed.

00:10:14.660 One of them is, it's a gigantic problem, just like the experts are telling us.

00:10:19.340 That movie is as clear as day.

00:10:22.000 Couldn't be more clear.

00:10:23.620 All the experts seem to agree.

00:10:25.760 Other countries have had a bad time.

00:10:27.400 You know, we seem to know viruses pretty well.

00:10:30.560 So, that just seems really clear.

00:10:33.260 It's going to be a terrible, terrible thing.

00:10:35.080 And, you know, tens of thousands will die,

00:10:38.720 if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

00:10:41.240 But the other movie is still completely running.

00:10:45.200 And the other movie is, it's just a mass hysteria.

00:10:50.660 And, you know, it would be a weird mass hysteria

00:10:54.980 because you can't deny that people are dying

00:10:58.040 and the doctors are saying,

00:11:00.220 oh, this is different.

00:11:01.600 This is not the flu.

00:11:03.220 So, there's something different about it.

00:11:05.500 But there were also different things about Ebola

00:11:08.100 and, you know, swine flu and all that.

00:11:12.100 So, they all have their own characteristic.

00:11:15.040 But what if it never comes?

00:11:18.920 What if we never get

00:11:20.340 the

00:11:22.280 ICUs completely crushed

00:11:24.940 and running out of ventilators?

00:11:26.820 What if it never happens?

00:11:28.040 Because, as of today,

00:11:33.320 that possibility seems completely open to me.

00:11:38.160 Completely.

00:11:39.220 Now, by tomorrow, it could be closed off

00:11:41.360 and maybe the one movie just, you know,

00:11:43.240 rules for all time.

00:11:45.020 I mean, it would just take a few days of bad results

00:11:47.960 and we'd say, there it is.

00:11:49.460 We were just, you know, missed it by a few days.

00:11:51.360 But that's not how models work.

00:11:53.700 They're not that accurate.

00:11:55.800 But every day that goes by

00:11:58.440 and the model is not delivering these,

00:12:03.260 at least thankfully,

00:12:04.800 not delivering all these deaths,

00:12:06.420 I ask myself,

00:12:09.380 did I get taken?

00:12:12.160 Because I don't know.

00:12:14.440 You know,

00:12:15.100 from this perspective,

00:12:17.260 I'm asking myself,

00:12:19.340 was this as big as we thought?

00:12:23.100 I think you've got to answer the question at this point.

00:12:25.680 Here's what I think we should do

00:12:30.300 about getting back to work.

00:12:32.360 Now, I've said this before,

00:12:33.280 but I think we need a checklist.

00:12:34.760 And number one on the checklist is,

00:12:37.440 do you have antibodies?

00:12:38.960 I think if you have antibodies,

00:12:41.800 it just should be automatic.

00:12:43.840 You should be able to go back to work, period.

00:12:45.800 Now, you should,

00:12:46.260 maybe you need some, you know,

00:12:47.800 evidence of it or some paperwork or something.

00:12:50.420 But that should be automatic if you have,

00:12:52.540 and we should,

00:12:53.880 we want to get to the point

00:12:55.180 where we can test that.

00:12:56.880 The other thing is,

00:12:58.740 we know there's such a big correlation

00:13:00.860 with things like weight and gender

00:13:02.980 and are you a smoker?

00:13:05.020 What's your age?

00:13:06.120 And your underlying conditions?

00:13:09.380 And maybe someday we'll figure out

00:13:11.660 if there's a genomic connection.

00:13:15.000 Shouldn't we just have a checklist

00:13:16.960 and have our smartest people figure out

00:13:19.960 that if you check these boxes,

00:13:23.660 your risk, just for you personally,

00:13:26.960 is the same as maybe the risk of a regular flu.

00:13:31.520 So let me give you an example.

00:13:33.700 Let's say you're 25,

00:13:36.700 you're fit, you're an athlete,

00:13:39.840 no extra weight,

00:13:41.860 you're female, 0.99

00:13:43.180 because that gives you an advantage.

00:13:44.400 And, you know,

00:13:47.300 no underlying conditions, right?

00:13:48.960 What are the odds for that person?

00:13:51.840 If you're young and fit and female, 0.98

00:13:55.160 don't smoke,

00:13:56.040 don't have any underlying conditions,

00:13:58.300 can somebody tell me the odds for that person?

00:14:01.280 Because why is that person

00:14:02.400 not getting to go to work?

00:14:04.240 If the only people who went to work 0.99

00:14:05.980 are the people whose odds of dying

00:14:08.580 were, pick a number,

00:14:10.220 one in a thousand,

00:14:10.940 what would be an acceptable death rate

00:14:16.400 of just the part of the public

00:14:17.920 that we do send back to work first?

00:14:20.800 So don't talk about the old people 1.00

00:14:22.980 and, you know,

00:14:23.780 the over-60s and stuff.

00:14:25.720 Just forget them.

00:14:26.560 And even forget people

00:14:28.020 who are overweight

00:14:29.140 and have medical problems.

00:14:30.340 Just forget them for a moment.

00:14:32.320 Just the people

00:14:33.280 that the scientists would say

00:14:35.700 are in the smallest risk group.

00:14:37.800 healthy female,

00:14:39.640 doesn't smoke,

00:14:40.860 you know,

00:14:41.180 a certain age.

00:14:43.220 Let's say their risk

00:14:44.320 was one in a thousand

00:14:46.160 of dying.

00:14:48.440 Would you say

00:14:49.220 go back to work?

00:14:50.080 One in a thousand?

00:14:51.420 How about

00:14:52.140 one in

00:14:53.220 five thousand?

00:14:56.480 Actually,

00:14:57.160 I'd like to see this.

00:14:58.380 In the comments,

00:15:00.020 give me your

00:15:01.640 acceptable level

00:15:03.320 of risk

00:15:04.260 for the first batch

00:15:06.560 that go back to work.

00:15:07.620 Those will be the safest ones.

00:15:09.980 What would be

00:15:10.620 your acceptable level

00:15:11.660 where you say,

00:15:12.200 yeah,

00:15:12.440 if you can get down to that,

00:15:14.800 at least those people

00:15:15.940 should go back to work.

00:15:18.860 So I'm seeing

00:15:19.760 one percent.

00:15:21.160 So one in a hundred.

00:15:22.720 So you'd say

00:15:23.360 go back to work

00:15:24.220 if one in a hundred

00:15:25.880 died?

00:15:27.500 Young,

00:15:27.980 healthy

00:15:28.340 women, 1.00

00:15:29.380 one in a hundred?

00:15:31.060 That's pretty high.

00:15:34.260 A lot of people

00:15:35.080 are saying

00:15:35.360 one in a hundred.

00:15:35.860 Now,

00:15:36.440 I think you might

00:15:37.220 mean that

00:15:37.700 because the stakes

00:15:39.060 are so high,

00:15:40.020 but that's a lot

00:15:40.880 to ask,

00:15:41.360 isn't it?

00:15:43.100 Let me ask you this.

00:15:45.580 You didn't see

00:15:46.360 this coming,

00:15:46.920 do you?

00:15:47.800 What was the last

00:15:48.940 war

00:15:49.600 that humans

00:15:50.820 were involved with

00:15:51.900 in which

00:15:53.140 we sent

00:15:53.980 to battle,

00:15:55.320 to fight the war,

00:15:57.020 we sent

00:15:57.840 our youngest

00:15:58.440 females 0.96

00:15:59.180 to the front lines?

00:16:02.000 When has that

00:16:02.820 ever happened?

00:16:03.360 might happen

00:16:06.420 now.

00:16:06.860 I'm looking

00:16:07.140 at your

00:16:07.460 numbers here.

00:16:08.380 So I'm

00:16:08.600 saying one

00:16:08.980 in ten

00:16:09.320 thousand.

00:16:10.680 People are

00:16:11.200 saying one

00:16:11.680 in a thousand,

00:16:12.680 five per

00:16:13.300 thousand.

00:16:15.100 You know,

00:16:15.580 there's,

00:16:16.160 and the reason

00:16:16.720 I ask you is

00:16:17.560 that the

00:16:18.560 consensus of

00:16:20.120 the crowd

00:16:20.600 is really

00:16:21.040 going to

00:16:21.320 matter

00:16:21.620 because it

00:16:22.580 has to be

00:16:23.040 okay with

00:16:23.560 us.

00:16:23.880 one

00:16:26.680 percent.

00:16:27.940 So I don't

00:16:28.620 see anybody

00:16:29.380 who's over

00:16:29.800 one percent.

00:16:31.700 Oh,

00:16:31.960 somebody's at

00:16:32.400 five percent.

00:16:33.320 Okay,

00:16:33.560 I don't think

00:16:34.000 you mean that.

00:16:35.340 You wouldn't

00:16:36.020 let five

00:16:36.740 percent of

00:16:37.200 the people

00:16:37.520 who go

00:16:37.740 back to

00:16:38.120 work die. 0.68

00:16:39.660 You know,

00:16:39.960 if you knew

00:16:40.440 that five

00:16:40.940 percent of

00:16:41.400 young females

00:16:42.200 going back

00:16:42.720 to work

00:16:43.040 were going

00:16:43.320 to die, 0.52

00:16:44.660 you'd be

00:16:45.160 okay with

00:16:45.560 that?

00:16:46.080 I don't

00:16:46.300 think so.

00:16:48.740 Yeah,

00:16:49.720 well,

00:16:50.060 so the most

00:16:50.520 common numbers

00:16:51.220 I'm seeing

00:16:51.660 is one

00:16:52.020 in 100,

00:16:53.340 one in

00:16:53.900 1,000,

00:16:54.620 some one

00:16:55.060 in 10,000.

00:16:56.460 And how

00:16:57.380 close can

00:16:57.920 we get?

00:16:59.420 Can somebody

00:17:00.060 tell me?

00:17:00.980 Is there

00:17:02.100 anybody here

00:17:02.760 who could

00:17:03.300 do the

00:17:04.220 math on

00:17:04.620 the back

00:17:04.940 of the

00:17:05.180 envelope?

00:17:05.880 Because we

00:17:06.420 sort of

00:17:06.760 know.

00:17:07.100 We've seen

00:17:07.500 statistics

00:17:08.180 from different

00:17:09.540 categories.

00:17:10.220 Could we

00:17:10.500 get to

00:17:10.820 one in

00:17:11.120 1,000?

00:17:12.760 So I

00:17:16.060 feel as

00:17:16.580 though we

00:17:17.220 should do

00:17:17.620 these

00:17:17.880 calculations

00:17:18.460 without the

00:17:19.200 benefit of

00:17:19.700 the government.

00:17:21.140 You know,

00:17:21.340 maybe somebody

00:17:21.940 smart can

00:17:22.560 come up

00:17:22.940 with a

00:17:23.240 checklist

00:17:23.680 and rank

00:17:25.280 it by,

00:17:25.880 you know,

00:17:26.220 what each

00:17:26.660 of these

00:17:26.980 things means.

00:17:27.960 If you

00:17:28.200 check this

00:17:28.600 box,

00:17:29.260 you know,

00:17:29.460 how many

00:17:29.740 points do

00:17:30.160 you get?

00:17:32.200 And then

00:17:32.760 we should

00:17:33.120 present it

00:17:33.640 to the

00:17:33.880 government.

00:17:35.600 I don't

00:17:36.140 think it

00:17:36.440 should be

00:17:36.720 the other

00:17:37.060 way around,

00:17:37.620 do you?

00:17:39.660 By the

00:17:40.160 way,

00:17:40.440 if the

00:17:41.540 Rasmussen

00:17:42.600 poll is

00:17:43.440 listening,

00:17:44.900 here's the

00:17:46.740 poll I'd

00:17:47.180 like to

00:17:47.500 see.

00:17:49.360 For the

00:17:49.920 first group

00:17:50.500 of people

00:17:50.920 who go

00:17:51.240 back to

00:17:51.600 work,

00:17:52.660 you'll

00:17:53.040 have to

00:17:53.320 work on

00:17:53.720 the wording

00:17:54.300 of the

00:17:54.560 question,

00:17:55.020 but for

00:17:55.860 the first

00:17:56.240 group that

00:17:56.600 go back

00:17:56.920 to work,

00:17:57.580 the safest

00:17:58.020 group,

00:17:59.500 what would

00:18:00.460 you,

00:18:01.300 you know,

00:18:01.560 the poll

00:18:02.000 respondents

00:18:02.520 say is the

00:18:03.900 risk you

00:18:04.420 think is

00:18:05.160 acceptable?

00:18:06.740 Because it's

00:18:07.640 not up to

00:18:08.200 the president,

00:18:08.820 is it?

00:18:09.600 The president

00:18:10.220 might get to

00:18:10.820 decide,

00:18:11.540 you know,

00:18:11.920 with his

00:18:12.980 team.

00:18:13.680 He might

00:18:14.080 have to

00:18:14.400 decide,

00:18:14.820 but how is

00:18:15.260 he going

00:18:15.500 to decide?

00:18:17.000 How is

00:18:17.500 the president

00:18:18.100 going to

00:18:18.540 decide what

00:18:20.320 level of

00:18:20.940 risk the

00:18:21.480 country should

00:18:22.080 take?

00:18:22.760 It's his

00:18:23.200 job,

00:18:24.000 right?

00:18:24.300 He has

00:18:24.680 to,

00:18:25.360 but what's

00:18:26.060 he going

00:18:26.260 to base

00:18:26.640 that on?

00:18:27.720 I would

00:18:28.140 suggest that

00:18:29.660 as you've

00:18:30.900 observed this

00:18:31.540 process,

00:18:32.500 you can see

00:18:33.400 the public

00:18:33.920 pushing the

00:18:34.700 professionals,

00:18:35.460 can't you?

00:18:36.480 That's obvious

00:18:37.260 to you,

00:18:37.660 right?

00:18:38.440 Is it obvious

00:18:39.080 to you that

00:18:39.700 this was a

00:18:40.540 very interactive

00:18:42.220 process where

00:18:43.880 our leaders

00:18:45.360 were saying,

00:18:46.040 I'm going to

00:18:46.340 do this,

00:18:47.000 and the

00:18:47.300 public said,

00:18:48.300 hey,

00:18:48.480 wait,

00:18:48.680 are you sure

00:18:49.040 about that?

00:18:49.600 Then the

00:18:49.920 leader said,

00:18:50.380 well,

00:18:50.500 let's look

00:18:50.880 at it.

00:18:51.840 And then

00:18:52.160 there was

00:18:52.580 this continuous

00:18:53.320 dance with

00:18:54.200 the public,

00:18:55.520 the experts,

00:18:56.380 the leaders,

00:18:57.300 in which it

00:18:57.860 seemed to be

00:18:58.400 that the

00:18:58.780 leaders were

00:18:59.260 continually,

00:19:00.220 meaning mostly

00:19:00.880 Trump,

00:19:02.160 testing the

00:19:03.820 public,

00:19:04.940 getting the

00:19:05.440 response,

00:19:06.280 and then

00:19:06.700 adjusting.

00:19:08.980 Now,

00:19:09.340 if you say

00:19:09.720 that that's

00:19:10.080 wrong,

00:19:10.540 wouldn't it

00:19:12.120 be better

00:19:12.780 if he were

00:19:13.240 magic and

00:19:13.900 everything he

00:19:14.480 did was

00:19:14.820 right the

00:19:15.200 first time?

00:19:15.980 Well,

00:19:16.260 yeah,

00:19:16.560 that'd be

00:19:16.820 great,

00:19:17.900 but it's

00:19:18.240 not the

00:19:18.520 real world.

00:19:19.680 In the

00:19:19.920 real world,

00:19:21.180 it's probably

00:19:21.820 the best

00:19:22.220 process you

00:19:22.900 could come

00:19:23.240 up with is

00:19:23.900 to really

00:19:24.300 feel out the

00:19:24.960 public as

00:19:25.600 you're adjusting

00:19:26.960 your policies,

00:19:27.860 you really

00:19:28.180 tune in and

00:19:29.340 see what the

00:19:29.840 response is.

00:19:31.220 So here's

00:19:31.620 my point.

00:19:33.300 I don't

00:19:33.940 think we

00:19:34.340 should make

00:19:34.840 Trump wait

00:19:35.780 to find out

00:19:37.560 what the

00:19:37.900 public's okay

00:19:38.580 with.

00:19:39.440 We should

00:19:40.080 present it.

00:19:41.320 There's

00:19:41.760 nothing in

00:19:42.220 our system

00:19:42.740 that stops

00:19:43.960 us from

00:19:44.400 doing that.

00:19:45.560 It's not

00:19:46.240 unconstitutional.

00:19:48.200 And then

00:19:48.480 certainly in

00:19:49.260 the context

00:19:49.780 of an

00:19:50.180 emergency

00:19:50.520 situation,

00:19:51.560 completely

00:19:52.240 appropriate.

00:19:53.400 It's within

00:19:54.200 our ability.

00:19:55.400 We can do

00:19:56.320 it.

00:19:56.960 We should

00:19:57.460 do it.

00:19:58.300 It would

00:19:58.780 be the

00:19:59.160 single most

00:19:59.700 important piece

00:20:00.360 of data that

00:20:00.940 comes out of

00:20:01.420 any of this.

00:20:02.540 You could argue

00:20:03.240 there's some

00:20:03.600 other important

00:20:04.140 data.

00:20:04.880 But what would

00:20:05.420 be more

00:20:05.780 important than

00:20:06.860 knowing the

00:20:07.380 public's

00:20:08.620 consensus for

00:20:10.560 the risk that

00:20:11.320 they're willing

00:20:11.720 to bear to

00:20:13.340 get back to

00:20:13.840 work?

00:20:15.820 I'd really

00:20:16.440 like to know

00:20:16.980 that.

00:20:18.220 I feel like

00:20:19.180 it's going to

00:20:19.540 come out

00:20:19.920 somewhere,

00:20:21.500 I'll bet any

00:20:22.220 group would

00:20:22.720 come out about

00:20:23.240 where you did

00:20:24.340 between one

00:20:25.280 and a hundred

00:20:25.700 and one

00:20:26.680 and a thousand

00:20:27.220 and then have

00:20:28.740 our experts

00:20:29.220 say, can you

00:20:30.100 promise us

00:20:30.660 that?

00:20:31.160 From what you

00:20:31.980 know already,

00:20:33.100 can you promise

00:20:33.880 us that?

00:20:34.360 Now, I

00:20:34.640 haven't even

00:20:35.060 thrown into

00:20:35.540 the mix

00:20:36.040 the hydroxychloroquine

00:20:38.740 and whether or

00:20:39.540 not that works.

00:20:41.020 That, too,

00:20:41.900 is a two-movie

00:20:42.620 situation.

00:20:44.700 I started out

00:20:45.840 being quite

00:20:47.300 optimistic that

00:20:48.780 the hydroxychloroquine

00:20:49.980 was going to

00:20:51.120 be a game-changer,

00:20:52.760 as the president

00:20:53.360 says.

00:20:54.480 But every day

00:20:55.560 that goes by

00:20:56.520 without that

00:20:58.280 being confirmed

00:20:59.360 vigorously

00:21:00.720 makes me think

00:21:02.800 maybe it won't

00:21:03.600 be.

00:21:04.440 So, at this

00:21:05.280 point, the two

00:21:05.940 movies on the

00:21:06.820 hydroxychloroquine

00:21:07.740 are also

00:21:08.420 completely alive.

00:21:10.740 One, that, of

00:21:12.060 course, we've seen

00:21:12.760 so much evidence

00:21:13.540 it works.

00:21:14.700 Six thousand

00:21:15.260 doctors were

00:21:16.020 surveyed, you

00:21:16.960 know, by a

00:21:17.640 wide majority,

00:21:18.700 they said it's

00:21:19.240 the best thing.

00:21:20.580 But even the

00:21:21.520 doctors who

00:21:22.940 have been using

00:21:23.440 it, I think

00:21:24.560 only 37% of

00:21:26.140 them said the

00:21:27.280 hydroxychloroquine

00:21:28.360 made a difference.

00:21:29.860 But that's not

00:21:30.740 what we're hearing

00:21:31.440 from other people,

00:21:32.620 right?

00:21:32.840 We're hearing

00:21:33.480 something like

00:21:34.320 it works every

00:21:34.940 time, but then

00:21:36.640 they talk to the

00:21:37.240 doctors and

00:21:37.940 they're like,

00:21:38.340 eh, 37%.

00:21:39.820 And then there's

00:21:40.880 another study that

00:21:41.740 says, well, in

00:21:42.600 this case doesn't

00:21:43.380 seem to make the

00:21:44.080 virus go down at

00:21:44.900 all.

00:21:45.140 I would say there's

00:21:47.520 a big old

00:21:48.180 question mark on

00:21:49.040 that drug right 0.59

00:21:49.680 now.

00:21:50.680 So, and if it

00:21:53.260 turns out to be

00:21:53.940 completely useless,

00:21:56.280 I will say that my

00:21:58.440 predictions were

00:21:59.140 wrong.

00:21:59.960 So let me state

00:22:00.760 that.

00:22:01.720 So at this point

00:22:03.680 in time, it's

00:22:05.340 sort of a jump

00:22:06.540 ball.

00:22:07.460 Eh, I'm going to

00:22:08.560 say 60% chance the

00:22:11.160 drug does make a

00:22:12.040 difference if you get

00:22:12.780 it early, 40% chance

00:22:14.980 it doesn't, just

00:22:16.500 based on what we

00:22:17.180 know right now.

00:22:17.800 That's my current

00:22:18.540 instinct on it.

00:22:21.240 So what I'm saying

00:22:22.160 is, somebody smart

00:22:24.060 needs to help me

00:22:25.040 come up with a

00:22:25.640 checklist of your

00:22:27.800 risk.

00:22:28.700 We need to agree

00:22:30.320 on it.

00:22:31.440 You know, maybe a

00:22:32.060 few people will try

00:22:32.940 a different take on

00:22:34.240 it.

00:22:35.000 We'll see who gets

00:22:35.820 the most retweets.

00:22:36.720 The beauty of

00:22:38.240 Twitter is, you

00:22:39.100 can sort of just

00:22:39.780 see what people

00:22:41.420 like right off the

00:22:43.080 bat.

00:22:44.080 You just see who

00:22:44.940 gets the most

00:22:45.380 retweets.

00:22:46.240 So if you do

00:22:46.800 that, tweet it at

00:22:47.760 me, make sure I

00:22:48.500 see it, and if

00:22:49.340 it's a good job,

00:22:50.640 I'll retweet it,

00:22:51.580 then we'll just

00:22:52.580 track the traffic.

00:22:54.300 If people like it

00:22:55.280 or they want to

00:22:55.780 play with it a

00:22:56.200 little bit, they

00:22:57.780 can do it.

00:22:58.600 But absolutely,

00:22:59.780 you should be

00:23:00.200 thinking in terms

00:23:01.000 of these citizens

00:23:02.140 presenting to their

00:23:03.860 government what

00:23:04.780 they will accept.

00:23:06.660 Think how much

00:23:07.320 you would like

00:23:07.760 that if you

00:23:08.160 were the

00:23:08.380 president, right?

00:23:09.940 Remember, this

00:23:10.620 is not a

00:23:11.680 spectator sport.

00:23:13.360 If you can find

00:23:14.420 anything you can

00:23:15.300 do that would

00:23:16.080 be the least

00:23:16.600 bit helpful, try

00:23:19.180 it.

00:23:20.100 Do it.

00:23:21.180 You know, I

00:23:21.480 almost all day

00:23:22.380 long, since this

00:23:23.780 whole crisis

00:23:25.240 started, people

00:23:26.800 contact me, you

00:23:27.780 know, privately

00:23:28.320 in a variety of

00:23:29.280 ways, and they

00:23:30.100 say, you know,

00:23:31.020 I have this idea

00:23:31.960 for helping.

00:23:33.460 Should I do

00:23:34.080 it?

00:23:34.780 And mostly, I

00:23:36.640 say, yes.

00:23:38.620 It doesn't mean

00:23:39.180 it'll work.

00:23:40.580 It doesn't mean

00:23:41.220 it'll, you know,

00:23:41.980 it'll help.

00:23:43.160 But if you have

00:23:43.820 an idea for

00:23:44.420 helping, it's

00:23:45.700 just always yes.

00:23:46.900 Just yes.

00:23:48.620 If there's

00:23:49.140 something you

00:23:49.540 think will

00:23:50.160 work, even if

00:23:51.480 you don't know

00:23:51.940 it'll work, yes.

00:23:53.740 You know, assuming

00:23:54.440 it's not dangerous.

00:23:56.280 So this is one

00:23:57.380 of those cases.

00:23:58.540 If you were the

00:23:59.400 president, wouldn't

00:24:00.200 you want your

00:24:00.860 public to present

00:24:02.020 to you the level

00:24:02.960 of risk that

00:24:03.580 they're comfortable

00:24:04.220 with, you

00:24:05.300 don't have to

00:24:05.880 take it.

00:24:06.880 You don't have

00:24:07.700 to take the

00:24:08.200 recommendation.

00:24:08.960 That's how it

00:24:09.460 works.

00:24:10.400 You know, you're

00:24:10.800 not commander-in-chief

00:24:11.860 and neither am I.

00:24:13.240 And this is a war.

00:24:14.700 So if the

00:24:15.340 commander-in-chief

00:24:15.960 looks at our input

00:24:16.760 and says, I'm

00:24:17.320 going to take a

00:24:17.760 higher risk or I'm

00:24:19.460 going to take a

00:24:19.920 lower risk, well,

00:24:21.960 that's why we

00:24:23.000 elect people to

00:24:24.640 make those

00:24:25.520 decisions.

00:24:25.980 let's see if

00:24:31.640 you've got

00:24:32.080 any, no one

00:24:33.740 cares, I'm

00:24:34.260 looking at your

00:24:34.900 comments here.

00:24:39.440 Maybe.

00:24:42.440 All right.

00:24:43.280 Give it a

00:24:43.960 shot.

00:24:46.040 Scott, the

00:24:46.700 meaning of

00:24:47.660 WI5H. 0.80

00:24:50.060 I don't know

00:24:50.580 what that is.

00:24:51.200 Oh, you

00:24:54.620 know the

00:24:55.300 other thing

00:24:55.800 that I don't

00:24:56.800 think any of

00:24:57.380 the models

00:24:57.860 capture?

00:24:59.220 Here's what the

00:24:59.960 models don't 1.00

00:25:00.540 capture.

00:25:01.020 See if I'm

00:25:01.400 right about

00:25:02.200 this.

00:25:03.660 The models

00:25:04.360 sort of make

00:25:05.700 some kind of

00:25:06.460 a general

00:25:07.720 assumption about

00:25:09.040 social distancing,

00:25:10.760 don't you

00:25:11.080 think?

00:25:12.100 So this is

00:25:14.120 more of a

00:25:14.520 question.

00:25:15.220 I think that

00:25:16.040 I'm right about

00:25:16.660 this, so this

00:25:17.260 should be an

00:25:17.980 accurate criticism,

00:25:19.620 but maybe not.

00:25:20.360 We'll see.

00:25:22.180 When the

00:25:23.300 models figure

00:25:24.180 out how

00:25:25.800 well social

00:25:26.560 distancing works,

00:25:27.960 because that's

00:25:28.440 one of the

00:25:28.900 main variables,

00:25:29.680 right?

00:25:29.880 If you're doing

00:25:30.380 a model of

00:25:30.980 who's going to

00:25:31.360 get infected, 0.77

00:25:32.200 you've got to

00:25:32.760 put in some

00:25:33.180 variables for

00:25:34.000 the effectiveness

00:25:34.840 of social

00:25:35.500 distancing.

00:25:36.780 But my

00:25:37.360 guess is that

00:25:38.060 they take

00:25:38.420 some kind

00:25:38.820 of an

00:25:39.060 average.

00:25:40.320 They say,

00:25:40.820 okay, the

00:25:41.200 average person

00:25:42.240 will only

00:25:43.420 social distance

00:25:44.280 this well.

00:25:45.560 But I don't

00:25:46.320 think that's

00:25:46.760 what's happening.

00:25:48.120 I think what's

00:25:49.140 really happening

00:25:49.820 is that people

00:25:51.300 like me, who

00:25:52.780 have a special

00:25:53.500 risk, I just

00:25:55.300 go nuts on

00:25:55.980 the isolation.

00:25:57.840 I have no

00:25:58.580 human contact.

00:25:59.960 I mean, if

00:26:01.480 the coronavirus

00:26:02.000 finds me, it's

00:26:03.900 going to have to

00:26:04.500 work for it,

00:26:05.480 right?

00:26:05.920 Now, I don't

00:26:06.720 do crazy stuff,

00:26:08.520 but I have no

00:26:09.440 human contact.

00:26:11.360 I'm not within

00:26:12.620 20 feet of a

00:26:14.300 human.

00:26:14.580 and I don't

00:26:15.580 touch things

00:26:16.260 that other

00:26:16.660 people have

00:26:17.080 touched unless

00:26:17.860 it's washed

00:26:18.920 down.

00:26:20.380 Now, I'm

00:26:20.860 not perfect,

00:26:23.080 but don't

00:26:23.800 you think that

00:26:24.440 because I have

00:26:26.220 a risk, and

00:26:28.640 I'm well

00:26:29.320 informed, I'm

00:26:31.360 taking super

00:26:32.300 extra duper

00:26:33.200 efforts to

00:26:34.300 social distance,

00:26:35.460 but an

00:26:36.180 average 25-year-old

00:26:37.560 probably isn't

00:26:39.040 trying that hard.

00:26:39.900 so what

00:26:42.240 does it

00:26:42.500 mean when

00:26:42.840 you take

00:26:43.220 me, the

00:26:43.940 only one

00:26:44.700 who's maybe

00:26:45.280 in danger of

00:26:46.040 actually dying

00:26:46.700 in my

00:26:47.900 simplistic

00:26:48.460 thing, I'm

00:26:50.240 in danger of

00:26:50.900 dying, but

00:26:51.820 I'm doing

00:26:52.200 super effort

00:26:53.020 to isolate.

00:26:55.340 The people

00:26:55.960 who don't

00:26:56.300 have a risk

00:26:56.860 of dying,

00:26:57.300 well, they're

00:26:57.580 not trying

00:26:58.040 so hard.

00:26:58.760 So what

00:26:59.040 would it

00:26:59.320 mean to

00:26:59.720 have one

00:27:00.480 variable that

00:27:01.180 represents me

00:27:02.120 just nailing

00:27:03.400 it on

00:27:04.000 isolation,

00:27:05.900 and some

00:27:06.540 25-year-old

00:27:07.360 who's not,

00:27:08.180 and then you

00:27:08.900 calculate with

00:27:09.660 our average?

00:27:11.280 That's probably

00:27:12.000 what's happening,

00:27:12.620 right?

00:27:13.340 And my guess

00:27:13.940 is that because

00:27:15.160 the people who

00:27:15.900 have the

00:27:16.220 special risk

00:27:16.980 know exactly

00:27:18.280 who they are

00:27:18.840 at this point,

00:27:20.320 that we're just

00:27:20.920 hiding really

00:27:21.660 well.

00:27:22.520 So here's what

00:27:23.420 I would think

00:27:24.820 is at least

00:27:25.260 possible.

00:27:26.300 I think the

00:27:26.860 models could

00:27:27.420 be way off

00:27:28.580 in this

00:27:29.900 critical variable,

00:27:31.340 which is how

00:27:31.780 well people

00:27:32.400 isolate,

00:27:33.340 because the

00:27:34.160 ones who know

00:27:34.740 they need to

00:27:35.240 isolate are

00:27:35.820 probably doing

00:27:36.640 a pretty good

00:27:37.320 job, like

00:27:38.620 way better

00:27:39.240 than average,

00:27:39.980 and I

00:27:40.300 don't know

00:27:40.640 if the

00:27:41.360 model takes

00:27:42.420 that into

00:27:42.800 account.

00:27:44.080 Maybe it

00:27:44.460 does, maybe

00:27:45.400 it does, but

00:27:46.140 I don't know

00:27:46.480 how it could

00:27:47.680 slice at that

00:27:48.380 finely.

00:27:52.860 Big fan,

00:27:53.700 love you,

00:27:53.980 videos,

00:27:54.360 wonder why

00:27:55.340 we don't

00:27:55.880 simply keep

00:27:56.700 people over

00:27:57.200 60 with

00:27:59.240 preconditions

00:28:00.020 home.

00:28:01.440 That would

00:28:02.040 be one of

00:28:02.520 the possibilities,

00:28:03.520 just keep it

00:28:04.080 simple and

00:28:04.620 just say,

00:28:05.060 all right,

00:28:05.320 here's the

00:28:05.720 deal.

00:28:05.940 if you're

00:28:07.640 over 60

00:28:08.420 and preconditions,

00:28:10.860 stay home.

00:28:12.180 But I think

00:28:12.660 I'm seeing

00:28:14.140 that weight

00:28:14.900 and smoking

00:28:16.040 and gender

00:28:16.900 seem to be

00:28:17.940 at least

00:28:19.580 as important

00:28:20.380 that, you

00:28:20.920 know, if you

00:28:21.280 added them

00:28:21.700 together, they'd

00:28:22.340 probably be as

00:28:22.860 important as

00:28:23.360 age, right?

00:28:25.180 I don't know

00:28:25.880 if this is true,

00:28:26.680 but if you say

00:28:27.460 that age is

00:28:28.540 the big

00:28:28.980 variable,

00:28:29.420 but if you

00:28:31.460 also were

00:28:32.400 overweight, male,

00:28:33.940 and you

00:28:34.380 smoked, and

00:28:35.700 you added those

00:28:36.320 three variables

00:28:37.020 together, that's

00:28:38.220 probably just as

00:28:39.280 big as being

00:28:39.920 over 60, right?

00:28:42.340 Maybe more, I

00:28:43.520 would think.

00:28:44.700 That's sort of a

00:28:45.460 precondition.

00:28:49.120 Yeah, and then

00:28:50.000 diabetes and all

00:28:51.240 those things.

00:28:52.920 Now, correct me

00:28:54.940 if I'm wrong, but

00:28:55.820 by now, aren't

00:28:58.680 there enough

00:28:59.180 people who've

00:29:00.060 been infected

00:29:00.680 that we would

00:29:01.840 know that all

00:29:02.860 the people who

00:29:03.580 had lupus, in

00:29:06.680 other words, all

00:29:07.140 the people who

00:29:07.720 were already on

00:29:08.600 hydroxychloroquine,

00:29:10.180 wouldn't we know

00:29:11.140 what the result

00:29:13.260 is?

00:29:13.840 Do we have to

00:29:14.420 do a study of

00:29:16.920 people taking

00:29:17.660 hydroxychloroquine

00:29:18.740 before they get

00:29:20.380 infected?

00:29:21.060 Do we have to

00:29:21.520 do that study?

00:29:22.960 Or can we not

00:29:23.700 just say, okay,

00:29:25.120 there's, how

00:29:26.680 many people are

00:29:27.520 infected now?

00:29:28.680 Hundreds of

00:29:30.540 thousands?

00:29:31.680 There's like a

00:29:32.480 quarter million

00:29:33.060 infected or something

00:29:33.860 like that?

00:29:34.440 How many of the

00:29:35.080 quarter million also

00:29:36.940 have lupus and

00:29:39.060 were on

00:29:39.480 hydroxychloroquine?

00:29:41.300 There must be a

00:29:43.440 thousand?

00:29:44.800 I don't know.

00:29:45.840 How many people

00:29:46.580 have lupus out of

00:29:47.620 250?

00:29:49.320 But probably there

00:29:50.640 are hundreds,

00:29:52.140 hundreds of people

00:29:53.040 that we should be

00:29:53.880 able to find pretty

00:29:54.720 easily.

00:29:55.560 Look at their

00:29:56.180 record.

00:29:56.520 There's the

00:29:57.160 lupus.

00:29:57.660 There's the

00:29:58.000 hydroxychloroquine.

00:29:59.800 Still alive?

00:30:01.580 Are they still

00:30:02.400 alive?

00:30:03.600 Because if they're

00:30:04.360 all still alive

00:30:05.320 and they have

00:30:07.280 lupus, because

00:30:08.860 you'd think lupus

00:30:09.660 would be a

00:30:10.320 condition, right?

00:30:12.400 That would be a

00:30:13.380 risk.

00:30:14.340 But if the

00:30:15.400 hydroxychloroquine

00:30:16.460 protects them so

00:30:17.620 well that even

00:30:18.360 with lupus they

00:30:19.460 don't die, well,

00:30:21.660 that's a pretty

00:30:22.160 good advertisement

00:30:22.780 for the drug.

00:30:23.380 So, why

00:30:24.700 don't we know

00:30:25.100 that?

00:30:26.000 It feels like

00:30:26.920 that would be

00:30:27.280 the most

00:30:27.660 knowable thing

00:30:28.640 at this point.

00:30:31.540 All right.

00:30:34.880 What else is

00:30:35.740 going on?

00:30:39.280 Where are my

00:30:40.120 Trump pills?

00:30:41.600 Yeah.

00:30:43.860 So, I'd like to

00:30:44.820 see by tomorrow,

00:30:46.180 I think Jared

00:30:46.960 will have some

00:30:48.580 more useful

00:30:49.380 numbers.

00:30:50.340 That would be

00:30:50.840 my guess.

00:30:51.420 what about

00:30:55.780 the folks who

00:30:56.380 don't know

00:30:56.780 they have a

00:30:57.240 condition?

00:30:58.740 Yeah.

00:30:59.480 So, the

00:31:01.220 risk would be

00:31:02.180 people who

00:31:03.100 don't know

00:31:03.760 they have

00:31:04.260 some condition.

00:31:05.800 But I

00:31:06.280 wonder, could

00:31:07.240 you check for

00:31:07.900 those conditions?

00:31:09.420 So, for

00:31:09.840 example, let's

00:31:10.940 say somebody

00:31:11.500 didn't know,

00:31:12.840 how many people

00:31:13.660 don't know

00:31:14.140 they're diabetic?

00:31:15.840 Or how many

00:31:16.680 people don't

00:31:17.340 know they have

00:31:17.940 hypertension?

00:31:19.160 Well, maybe

00:31:19.900 that's a

00:31:20.300 condition.

00:31:21.420 So, maybe

00:31:22.080 you say,

00:31:23.300 even though

00:31:24.100 you're 35,

00:31:25.660 you have to

00:31:26.780 have your

00:31:27.180 blood pressure

00:31:27.740 checked,

00:31:28.900 and you

00:31:29.820 have to be

00:31:31.480 checked for

00:31:32.300 diabetes or

00:31:33.480 something.

00:31:34.140 So, it

00:31:34.460 seems like

00:31:34.900 that could 0.68

00:31:35.680 be a

00:31:35.960 checklist,

00:31:36.540 too.

00:31:36.840 Have you

00:31:37.260 checked it?

00:31:38.280 Not just

00:31:38.880 the honor

00:31:39.500 system, but

00:31:40.200 did the

00:31:41.260 doctor say

00:31:41.780 you can go

00:31:42.200 back to

00:31:42.560 work?

00:31:42.780 are you

00:31:46.220 backing off

00:31:46.820 your

00:31:47.000 original

00:31:47.500 trumpet

00:31:47.980 pill

00:31:48.280 mania?

00:31:49.640 No, I

00:31:50.340 would say

00:31:50.680 that I'm

00:31:51.060 exactly where

00:31:51.800 I was,

00:31:52.580 but no

00:31:53.200 matter what

00:31:53.640 happens,

00:31:54.060 people are

00:31:54.420 going to

00:31:54.600 say that

00:31:55.000 I was

00:31:56.020 wrong.

00:31:57.140 So, one

00:31:58.060 of the most

00:31:59.120 annoying things

00:32:00.100 about being

00:32:00.620 me is the

00:32:02.680 number of

00:32:03.120 people who

00:32:03.680 will misremember

00:32:04.760 what I've

00:32:05.260 said and

00:32:06.220 then declare

00:32:06.860 that I'm

00:32:07.320 wrong after

00:32:09.220 they misremember

00:32:10.040 what I said.

00:32:11.240 So, I've

00:32:11.720 never said

00:32:12.320 the pills

00:32:12.880 work.

00:32:13.960 I've said

00:32:14.460 that anecdotally

00:32:15.500 they work

00:32:16.940 and I've

00:32:17.300 said that

00:32:17.640 they're small

00:32:18.380 studies that

00:32:19.100 are not

00:32:19.380 credible and

00:32:20.340 I've said

00:32:21.400 that.

00:32:21.880 So, that's

00:32:22.200 still exactly

00:32:22.860 the case.

00:32:23.940 We have

00:32:24.500 more information

00:32:25.400 but it's

00:32:25.920 just more

00:32:26.460 of the same

00:32:27.000 type, which

00:32:28.300 is, well,

00:32:29.120 there's more

00:32:29.420 information that

00:32:30.000 works and

00:32:31.260 then there's

00:32:31.620 a little more

00:32:32.140 indication that

00:32:32.840 maybe you

00:32:33.180 should question

00:32:33.580 it.

00:32:34.260 So, it's

00:32:34.640 almost exactly

00:32:35.980 where it's

00:32:36.440 been.

00:32:37.800 But I will

00:32:39.320 say that

00:32:39.680 every day

00:32:40.120 that goes

00:32:40.520 by and

00:32:42.080 we don't

00:32:42.460 have, you

00:32:43.680 know, more

00:32:44.000 clear information

00:32:44.920 is making

00:32:46.460 me wonder

00:32:46.900 why.

00:32:48.580 Why do we

00:32:49.320 not have

00:32:49.700 better

00:32:49.900 visibility?

00:32:55.180 You're

00:32:55.660 right to

00:32:56.460 be wrong,

00:32:57.300 somebody says.

00:32:58.140 I don't

00:32:58.360 know what

00:32:58.620 that means.

00:33:02.980 Why do

00:33:03.620 the people

00:33:04.000 who insist

00:33:04.600 that you're

00:33:04.980 wrong still

00:33:05.520 watch your

00:33:05.980 periscopes?

00:33:07.200 Well, I

00:33:08.120 think people

00:33:08.640 want me to

00:33:09.300 be wrong.

00:33:12.020 It's like

00:33:12.680 anybody, you

00:33:13.640 know, any

00:33:13.980 celebrity,

00:33:15.580 sometimes you

00:33:16.240 kind of want

00:33:16.740 them to be

00:33:17.200 wrong, don't

00:33:17.780 you?

00:33:18.360 Admit it.

00:33:19.620 Admit it.

00:33:20.960 As much as

00:33:21.800 you might like

00:33:22.820 it when I'm

00:33:23.360 right, there's

00:33:24.920 a little part

00:33:25.720 of you.

00:33:26.900 Admit it.

00:33:28.060 There's a

00:33:28.540 little part

00:33:29.040 of you that

00:33:30.520 doesn't mind

00:33:31.040 when I'm

00:33:31.400 wrong either.

00:33:32.360 See me

00:33:32.740 knock down a 0.78

00:33:33.840 level.

00:33:34.220 Come on, you

00:33:34.900 can admit it.

00:33:35.540 You're

00:33:36.540 human.

00:33:38.300 It's

00:33:38.460 called

00:33:39.160 schadenfreude.

00:33:41.060 It's that

00:33:41.320 feeling you

00:33:41.860 get when

00:33:42.480 other people

00:33:43.480 get knocked

00:33:43.980 down the

00:33:44.320 peg.

00:33:45.280 You don't

00:33:45.960 mind it

00:33:46.380 too much.

00:33:47.720 So I

00:33:48.080 think it's

00:33:48.320 entertaining

00:33:48.700 either way.

00:33:49.240 is your

00:33:53.540 lung capacity

00:33:54.360 affected by

00:33:55.280 pot smoking?

00:33:56.600 Well, I

00:33:57.280 can't give

00:33:58.260 you a medical

00:33:58.860 answer to

00:33:59.320 that.

00:33:59.640 I will tell

00:34:00.080 you that the

00:34:00.520 only study I'm

00:34:01.540 aware of,

00:34:02.640 this was a

00:34:03.400 few years

00:34:03.760 ago, so

00:34:05.040 there was a

00:34:05.420 study of

00:34:05.860 lung capacity

00:34:06.640 of marijuana

00:34:09.000 smokers versus

00:34:09.960 people who

00:34:10.860 didn't smoke

00:34:11.380 anything.

00:34:12.280 So there

00:34:12.520 was people

00:34:12.880 who smoked

00:34:13.300 a lot of

00:34:13.780 marijuana

00:34:14.160 every day

00:34:14.820 and people

00:34:17.200 who didn't

00:34:17.440 smoke anything,

00:34:18.180 cigarettes or

00:34:18.640 anything else.

00:34:19.980 And these

00:34:21.620 researchers were

00:34:22.680 surprised that

00:34:24.340 the marijuana

00:34:24.880 smokers had

00:34:25.760 more lung

00:34:26.520 capacity on

00:34:27.480 average.

00:34:28.740 And it was

00:34:29.480 statistically

00:34:30.440 noticeable.

00:34:33.460 Now, it

00:34:34.760 was one

00:34:35.220 study and

00:34:36.940 they were

00:34:37.300 like, well,

00:34:38.440 we don't

00:34:38.980 know, this is

00:34:39.620 exactly opposite

00:34:40.620 of what

00:34:41.120 everybody thought

00:34:41.860 it would be.

00:34:42.920 So they

00:34:43.580 speculated, why

00:34:44.560 would that be?

00:34:45.160 Now, of course,

00:34:45.800 what they didn't

00:34:46.800 speculate is we

00:34:47.780 did the study

00:34:48.440 wrong.

00:34:49.240 I mean, that

00:34:50.100 would be the

00:34:50.560 first thing I

00:34:51.120 would think is

00:34:51.660 it's not a

00:34:52.680 valid study,

00:34:53.300 maybe.

00:34:54.680 But they

00:34:55.260 didn't say

00:34:55.620 that.

00:34:56.580 They said,

00:34:57.280 they speculated

00:34:58.280 that the act

00:34:59.260 of smoking

00:35:01.460 marijuana requires

00:35:02.980 you to take

00:35:03.740 deep inhales

00:35:04.920 and hold it.

00:35:06.860 And they

00:35:07.480 speculated that

00:35:08.280 maybe the

00:35:08.740 marijuana smoke

00:35:09.580 wasn't degrading

00:35:10.740 your lungs as

00:35:11.500 much as the

00:35:13.140 daily practice

00:35:14.020 of heavy

00:35:14.680 breathing and

00:35:15.260 holding your

00:35:15.840 breath was

00:35:17.180 actually

00:35:17.480 helping you.

00:35:19.500 So maybe,

00:35:21.260 you know,

00:35:21.560 I'm not saying

00:35:22.100 that's true.

00:35:23.060 And by the

00:35:23.460 way, you

00:35:25.520 know, I

00:35:25.700 make no

00:35:26.100 secret that

00:35:26.740 I'm a

00:35:27.300 medical

00:35:27.940 marijuana

00:35:28.580 user.

00:35:29.740 But every

00:35:31.120 now and

00:35:31.780 then I

00:35:32.100 like to

00:35:32.860 be clear

00:35:34.580 that I

00:35:35.220 don't

00:35:35.400 recommend it.

00:35:36.960 So I

00:35:37.680 don't recommend

00:35:38.240 it for you.

00:35:39.260 I don't

00:35:39.580 recommend it

00:35:40.060 for anybody.

00:35:40.500 And the

00:35:41.720 reason I

00:35:42.040 don't recommend

00:35:42.500 it is I'm

00:35:43.520 not a

00:35:43.820 doctor.

00:35:45.080 I'm not a

00:35:45.580 doctor.

00:35:46.360 I think there

00:35:46.960 are situations

00:35:47.620 in which it

00:35:48.180 would be the

00:35:48.580 worst possible

00:35:49.360 thing you

00:35:49.740 could do.

00:35:51.280 Smoking

00:35:51.720 marijuana.

00:35:52.780 There are

00:35:53.280 people in

00:35:54.300 situations,

00:35:55.280 certain

00:35:55.500 personality

00:35:56.000 types,

00:35:57.280 certain

00:35:57.520 situations

00:35:58.200 where maybe

00:35:58.920 it's just

00:35:59.640 the worst

00:36:00.040 thing you

00:36:00.360 could possibly

00:36:00.900 do.

00:36:02.380 But there

00:36:03.020 are other

00:36:03.300 situations

00:36:03.860 that are

00:36:04.640 unique and

00:36:06.680 you have to

00:36:07.020 look at every

00:36:07.420 situation

00:36:07.880 differently and

00:36:08.700 I am one

00:36:09.260 of them.

00:36:10.500 And,

00:36:11.260 you know,

00:36:12.480 one of the

00:36:13.600 things I have

00:36:14.080 going for me

00:36:14.700 is that,

00:36:15.660 you know,

00:36:15.940 I can make

00:36:16.340 my own

00:36:16.700 schedule and,

00:36:18.080 you know,

00:36:18.420 I have a lot

00:36:18.840 of experience

00:36:19.480 and it doesn't

00:36:20.540 affect me the

00:36:21.120 way it affects

00:36:21.760 other people.

00:36:23.140 One of the

00:36:23.540 things people

00:36:23.940 don't know

00:36:24.360 about marijuana

00:36:25.960 is that it

00:36:27.220 affects everybody

00:36:27.920 differently.

00:36:29.900 And so the

00:36:32.960 way it affects

00:36:33.460 me is

00:36:35.320 overwhelmingly

00:36:36.060 positive.

00:36:37.460 But that

00:36:38.020 doesn't mean

00:36:38.420 it would be

00:36:38.760 for you.

00:36:40.500 And for me

00:36:41.760 it's overwhelmingly

00:36:42.440 positive basically

00:36:44.520 every time.

00:36:46.420 I don't even

00:36:46.920 know,

00:36:47.240 I can think of

00:36:47.820 an exception.

00:36:48.800 It's basically

00:36:49.280 it's a guarantee.

00:36:50.600 It's,

00:36:51.520 you know,

00:36:51.780 your life has

00:36:52.640 improved in my

00:36:53.380 case.

00:36:54.140 But here's the

00:36:55.040 observation I

00:36:56.100 have.

00:36:57.760 For those of

00:36:58.620 you who have

00:36:58.880 never experienced

00:36:59.940 marijuana,

00:37:01.420 my observation is

00:37:02.560 that it doesn't

00:37:03.280 make you

00:37:04.120 dumb or stupid

00:37:05.840 or any of the

00:37:08.160 things that

00:37:08.560 people say.

00:37:09.680 What it makes

00:37:10.480 you is more

00:37:11.360 of what you

00:37:11.880 already were.

00:37:13.800 So what I

00:37:14.540 mean is,

00:37:15.040 if you're

00:37:15.400 naturally lazy,

00:37:17.100 oh, it'll

00:37:17.560 make you

00:37:17.940 lazier.

00:37:19.880 It'll do

00:37:20.580 that.

00:37:21.340 If you are

00:37:22.220 already lazy,

00:37:23.900 it'll make you

00:37:24.740 lazier.

00:37:26.280 But if you're

00:37:28.400 self-motivated

00:37:29.420 and you're,

00:37:30.580 you know,

00:37:30.880 sort of a

00:37:31.340 creative person

00:37:32.840 full of energy,

00:37:33.480 it will make

00:37:34.760 you more of

00:37:35.340 that.

00:37:36.740 So in my

00:37:37.940 case, I'm

00:37:38.600 naturally

00:37:39.060 creative and

00:37:41.140 it makes me

00:37:41.860 more creative.

00:37:43.560 I mean, just

00:37:44.080 really, obviously,

00:37:45.340 it's not even

00:37:46.900 comparable.

00:37:49.200 I'm naturally

00:37:50.040 motivated and

00:37:51.760 I find that it

00:37:52.420 makes me even

00:37:53.020 more motivated.

00:37:54.460 But here's the

00:37:55.400 other trick and

00:37:56.760 this is the

00:37:57.420 biggest trick.

00:37:58.800 There are lots

00:37:59.760 of different kinds

00:38:00.460 of marijuana and

00:38:01.220 they don't act

00:38:01.800 the same.

00:38:02.880 And if you

00:38:03.220 don't learn

00:38:03.740 that, you're

00:38:04.520 going to be

00:38:04.720 really surprised.

00:38:06.240 And you'll

00:38:06.520 wonder why,

00:38:07.620 hey, I liked

00:38:08.700 it this time

00:38:09.380 and this time

00:38:10.220 I just got

00:38:10.740 sleepy and

00:38:11.500 fell asleep

00:38:12.700 and it's

00:38:13.240 completely

00:38:13.580 different.

00:38:14.500 So the big

00:38:15.240 difference is

00:38:15.800 there are two

00:38:16.380 main types.

00:38:18.200 You've got

00:38:18.580 your indica

00:38:19.740 dominant and

00:38:22.040 your sativa,

00:38:23.360 two different

00:38:23.920 kinds of

00:38:24.320 plants, but

00:38:24.980 they're both

00:38:25.400 in the same

00:38:26.220 family.

00:38:27.240 The sativa

00:38:27.840 gives you

00:38:29.720 energy and

00:38:30.380 makes you

00:38:30.760 creative and

00:38:32.160 makes you

00:38:32.440 just enjoy

00:38:33.340 your day

00:38:33.900 and you

00:38:35.020 can do

00:38:35.640 almost

00:38:36.480 everything

00:38:37.180 just as

00:38:37.840 well if

00:38:39.240 you're an

00:38:39.700 experienced

00:38:40.360 user.

00:38:41.380 If you're

00:38:41.820 not

00:38:42.000 experienced,

00:38:43.600 you don't

00:38:45.360 plan to do

00:38:47.060 anything

00:38:47.320 important.

00:38:47.760 But if you're

00:38:49.260 experienced,

00:38:49.880 it's a

00:38:50.120 completely

00:38:50.420 different

00:38:51.040 sensation

00:38:52.880 and experience.

00:38:53.800 so if

00:38:56.080 you take

00:38:56.460 the sativa

00:38:56.980 during the

00:38:58.720 day, let's

00:38:59.980 say you're

00:39:00.320 a medical

00:39:00.680 marijuana user

00:39:01.400 only,

00:39:02.260 because

00:39:02.420 recreationally,

00:39:04.160 I would not

00:39:05.360 even recommend

00:39:06.040 it recreationally.

00:39:07.280 It's just

00:39:07.680 not a party

00:39:08.260 drug.

00:39:08.680 I don't even

00:39:09.020 know why,

00:39:09.940 I'm not even

00:39:10.540 sure why people

00:39:11.100 use it.

00:39:12.300 But it does

00:39:14.320 have many

00:39:14.820 benefits to

00:39:15.940 your life in

00:39:16.560 the right

00:39:16.860 circumstance.

00:39:17.620 So the

00:39:19.100 sativa will

00:39:19.860 wake you

00:39:20.380 up, make

00:39:21.140 you more

00:39:21.760 productive.

00:39:24.220 Somebody once

00:39:25.060 referred to it

00:39:25.700 as worker

00:39:26.280 weed.

00:39:27.800 It's the

00:39:28.480 kind of

00:39:28.760 marijuana you

00:39:29.320 would want

00:39:29.760 to smoke

00:39:30.240 before work,

00:39:32.160 especially if

00:39:33.560 you had a

00:39:33.860 job that

00:39:34.120 didn't require

00:39:34.600 too much

00:39:34.960 thinking.

00:39:37.340 But the

00:39:38.040 indica is

00:39:39.600 the opposite.

00:39:40.580 It makes

00:39:40.980 you relax,

00:39:42.040 and you're

00:39:42.580 probably just

00:39:43.420 going to want

00:39:43.820 to take a

00:39:44.260 nap and

00:39:44.660 watch some

00:39:45.380 TV and

00:39:45.980 pet the

00:39:46.320 dog.

00:39:46.620 So if

00:39:47.920 you don't

00:39:48.860 know which

00:39:49.320 one you're

00:39:49.680 doing, if

00:39:50.820 you do the

00:39:51.200 wrong one

00:39:51.700 in the

00:39:51.980 daytime and

00:39:52.640 the other

00:39:52.900 one at

00:39:53.200 night, it's

00:39:54.740 not going to

00:39:55.060 be a good

00:39:55.360 result.

00:39:56.460 So that

00:39:57.120 would be yet

00:39:57.920 another reason

00:39:58.540 not to

00:39:59.100 recommend that

00:39:59.740 anybody do

00:40:00.300 it, because

00:40:01.660 you really

00:40:02.020 got to know

00:40:02.440 what you're

00:40:02.700 doing.

00:40:03.980 There's a

00:40:04.560 big difference

00:40:05.180 between getting

00:40:06.100 the right

00:40:06.520 strain and

00:40:07.900 doing it at

00:40:08.360 the right

00:40:08.600 time and

00:40:09.300 just randomly

00:40:10.060 saying,

00:40:10.740 well, let me

00:40:11.660 just try some

00:40:12.260 of this.

00:40:12.660 You'll get a

00:40:13.080 very different

00:40:13.620 result.

00:40:14.900 And then

00:40:15.160 within the

00:40:15.760 types,

00:40:16.620 there are

00:40:17.620 infinite

00:40:18.020 varieties with

00:40:19.080 slightly different

00:40:20.020 characters.

00:40:21.060 Some make you

00:40:21.760 hungrier, some

00:40:22.660 might make you

00:40:23.360 paranoid.

00:40:24.700 If you're a 0.88

00:40:25.320 regular user, you

00:40:26.140 don't get the

00:40:26.640 paranoia so much.

00:40:29.320 And some

00:40:31.000 make you,

00:40:32.420 some are good

00:40:34.420 for your libido,

00:40:35.520 some are good

00:40:35.920 for exercise,

00:40:37.200 some are good

00:40:37.840 for just all

00:40:39.860 kinds of

00:40:40.200 different things.

00:40:40.680 things.

00:40:41.360 And sometimes

00:40:43.080 you don't know

00:40:43.720 those things

00:40:44.320 until you

00:40:44.720 try it.

00:40:45.840 But it's so

00:40:46.360 consistent, you

00:40:47.700 can definitely

00:40:48.480 tell there's

00:40:48.960 something going

00:40:49.400 on.

00:40:54.140 All right,

00:40:54.860 so that's

00:40:57.140 what you need

00:40:57.620 to know about

00:40:58.120 that stuff.

00:40:58.840 Again, I

00:40:59.440 don't recommend

00:40:59.940 any of it.

00:41:01.260 You should

00:41:01.840 only do it

00:41:02.340 if a doctor

00:41:02.900 says it

00:41:04.040 works for

00:41:04.580 you.

00:41:04.920 I get it

00:41:06.180 mostly because

00:41:06.740 I have a

00:41:07.880 light form

00:41:08.600 of sleep

00:41:09.120 apnea.

00:41:10.900 It's not so

00:41:11.820 bad I need

00:41:12.360 a CPAP,

00:41:13.660 but it's not

00:41:14.720 so good that

00:41:15.280 I can get to

00:41:15.860 sleep easily.

00:41:17.340 But a few

00:41:19.360 hits of

00:41:19.760 indica and

00:41:20.560 I have the

00:41:21.220 best night's

00:41:21.920 sleep and I

00:41:23.100 wake up feeling

00:41:23.640 great.

00:41:26.920 You're not

00:41:27.620 you when

00:41:28.180 you're high.

00:41:29.760 Are you

00:41:30.320 talking about

00:41:30.760 me?

00:41:31.200 Are you

00:41:31.420 talking about

00:41:31.800 somebody else?

00:41:32.660 Why does

00:41:33.040 that matter?

00:41:33.500 One of the

00:41:36.280 things I

00:41:36.840 hear most

00:41:37.280 from people

00:41:37.720 who don't

00:41:38.880 want to do

00:41:39.420 any kind of

00:41:39.860 mind-altering

00:41:40.420 drug, and

00:41:41.520 it's probably

00:41:42.460 good that they

00:41:43.040 have this,

00:41:43.880 shouldn't talk

00:41:44.520 you out of

00:41:44.840 it, but

00:41:45.740 people say

00:41:46.220 stuff like,

00:41:47.440 well, like

00:41:48.500 you just saw

00:41:48.940 in the comments,

00:41:50.120 but you're

00:41:51.320 not you,

00:41:52.720 you're somebody

00:41:53.680 else, or

00:41:54.820 you're escaping

00:41:55.520 from reality,

00:41:57.080 to which I

00:41:58.240 say, so?

00:42:00.820 Those aren't

00:42:01.540 reasons, those

00:42:02.720 are statements.

00:42:04.260 There's no

00:42:04.840 reason in

00:42:05.620 any of that.

00:42:07.120 Why can't

00:42:07.900 you be a

00:42:08.260 different person

00:42:08.840 sometimes?

00:42:09.780 Because you're

00:42:10.420 not the same

00:42:10.940 person when

00:42:11.400 you're tired,

00:42:12.560 you're not

00:42:13.160 the same

00:42:13.500 person when

00:42:13.940 you're hungry,

00:42:14.840 you're not

00:42:15.420 the same

00:42:15.760 person when

00:42:16.220 you get a

00:42:16.920 promotion, as

00:42:18.080 you are when

00:42:18.680 you get

00:42:18.880 fired.

00:42:20.120 You have

00:42:20.920 lots of

00:42:21.720 different yous.

00:42:22.720 There's not

00:42:23.160 one of you.

00:42:24.080 You have a

00:42:24.560 whole range of

00:42:25.680 different preferences,

00:42:26.900 different feelings,

00:42:28.660 different internal

00:42:29.260 feelings, different

00:42:30.020 actions.

00:42:31.140 So to say

00:42:31.840 you wouldn't

00:42:32.640 want to have

00:42:34.480 a drink or

00:42:35.080 smoke marijuana

00:42:35.720 or something

00:42:36.120 because it

00:42:38.040 makes you not

00:42:38.720 you, it's a

00:42:40.280 meaningless

00:42:40.620 statement, because

00:42:41.760 you're never

00:42:42.100 you.

00:42:42.760 You're always

00:42:43.460 this ever-changing

00:42:44.320 thing, and the

00:42:45.940 chemistry and your

00:42:46.700 environment are

00:42:47.420 always part of

00:42:48.380 who you are at

00:42:49.020 any moment.

00:42:49.840 It's just not a

00:42:50.580 real reason.

00:42:51.360 There are plenty

00:42:51.900 of reasons not

00:42:52.560 to do those

00:42:53.120 things, like

00:42:53.800 plenty of good

00:42:54.680 reasons.

00:42:55.080 I mean, alcohol

00:42:56.300 is just poison,

00:42:57.160 basically, and

00:42:58.240 you should never

00:42:58.680 do marijuana

00:42:59.420 unless your

00:42:59.920 doctor says it's

00:43:00.700 a good idea.

00:43:02.020 So you don't

00:43:03.540 need any other

00:43:05.080 reasons not to

00:43:05.820 do it.

00:43:08.920 Do I dab?

00:43:11.660 I did exactly

00:43:13.020 once, and I

00:43:14.620 thought my head

00:43:15.260 was going to

00:43:15.660 come clear off.

00:43:17.400 So you think

00:43:18.780 you're experienced

00:43:19.580 until you find

00:43:21.980 out the even

00:43:22.520 stronger way to

00:43:23.320 do it.

00:43:23.600 So I don't

00:43:24.280 recommend any

00:43:24.880 of that stuff.

00:43:27.740 Do I

00:43:28.380 metabolize

00:43:28.940 caffeine fast

00:43:30.380 or slow?

00:43:31.660 I don't know

00:43:32.560 how to measure

00:43:33.520 that.

00:43:34.440 I know coffee

00:43:35.280 and I get

00:43:35.800 along really

00:43:36.460 well.

00:43:38.200 I can't speak

00:43:38.920 for other

00:43:39.440 people, but I

00:43:41.000 get along

00:43:41.500 really well.

00:43:50.380 So I don't

00:43:51.360 remember seeing

00:43:52.000 your responses

00:43:53.100 as to how

00:43:53.560 many of you

00:43:54.100 are sleeping

00:43:54.920 better because

00:43:56.440 I've told you

00:43:57.520 that you

00:43:57.880 will.

00:43:59.600 So in the

00:44:00.380 comments, if

00:44:02.320 there's anybody

00:44:02.820 here who's

00:44:03.520 sleeping better

00:44:04.480 at night

00:44:05.000 because I

00:44:06.800 helped you

00:44:07.560 sleep better

00:44:08.380 at night,

00:44:09.000 just let me

00:44:09.840 know because

00:44:10.360 I'd like to

00:44:11.800 know how

00:44:12.040 that's working.

00:44:14.740 Jack

00:44:15.240 Jack Herrera

00:44:16.620 is among

00:44:20.900 the best, as

00:44:22.100 you know.

00:44:23.780 Can I go

00:44:24.480 to sleep after

00:44:25.040 caffeine?

00:44:25.640 Oh, easily.

00:44:26.620 Yeah.

00:44:27.120 I can actually

00:44:27.820 go to sleep

00:44:28.300 anywhere, anytime.

00:44:29.980 It's like a

00:44:30.700 superpower.

00:44:32.060 So I fall

00:44:32.920 asleep when I'm

00:44:33.480 getting my teeth

00:44:34.180 cleaned, like

00:44:35.440 while the

00:44:37.100 dental hygienist

00:44:38.200 is in my

00:44:39.160 mouth with

00:44:40.260 power tools.

00:44:41.020 fall asleep.

00:44:43.540 And I wake

00:44:44.240 up, and it's

00:44:44.640 really scary

00:44:45.200 because I wake

00:44:45.740 up, and you

00:44:46.880 know, you

00:44:47.080 come out of

00:44:47.480 your sleep, and

00:44:48.180 there's somebody

00:44:48.580 in your mouth 0.76

00:44:49.140 with power

00:44:49.620 tools.

00:44:50.000 You're like,

00:44:50.380 so I fall

00:44:54.860 asleep and

00:44:55.320 wake up like

00:44:55.960 three times

00:44:56.660 every time that

00:44:57.380 I'm getting my

00:44:57.880 teeth cleaned,

00:44:58.560 and it's a

00:44:59.740 horror every

00:45:00.320 time.

00:45:03.100 Oh, okay, so

00:45:03.980 the comments

00:45:04.740 are coming in.

00:45:05.260 Look how many

00:45:05.680 people are

00:45:06.240 sleeping better

00:45:07.060 because of the

00:45:10.360 suggestion.

00:45:12.000 All right, so

00:45:13.040 here's some

00:45:13.840 more good

00:45:14.660 sleeping tips.

00:45:17.160 Don't think

00:45:18.220 about what you

00:45:18.900 need to do

00:45:19.460 tomorrow.

00:45:20.100 That's number

00:45:20.600 one.

00:45:21.700 All right, do

00:45:22.800 not go to

00:45:24.800 bed, close

00:45:25.660 your eyes, and

00:45:26.460 then think about

00:45:27.200 what you have to

00:45:27.800 do tomorrow,

00:45:28.340 ever.

00:45:29.120 Never.

00:45:30.520 If you need to

00:45:31.360 think about what

00:45:31.980 you're going to

00:45:32.340 do tomorrow, get

00:45:33.920 up.

00:45:35.320 Make a list, you

00:45:37.160 know, so all the

00:45:37.760 things that are on

00:45:38.340 your mind, write

00:45:39.000 them down so that

00:45:39.820 you'll remember in

00:45:40.440 the morning, but

00:45:41.660 do not plan your

00:45:44.460 day when you're in

00:45:45.860 bed, ever.

00:45:47.100 Never make an

00:45:48.760 exception to that.

00:45:50.240 Get up.

00:45:51.760 It doesn't matter if

00:45:52.940 it's two in the

00:45:53.600 morning.

00:45:54.380 If you can't stop

00:45:56.240 your mind from

00:45:56.920 planning your day

00:45:57.760 and it's two in the

00:45:59.120 morning, get up.

00:46:01.440 Get up.

00:46:02.320 Because you never

00:46:03.000 want to associate

00:46:03.840 those thoughts with

00:46:06.100 being in bed.

00:46:06.760 you have to be a 0.88

00:46:08.300 maniac about

00:46:09.080 separating the

00:46:09.980 sleep experience

00:46:11.080 from the

00:46:12.180 thinking, you

00:46:13.280 know, stressful

00:46:13.860 experience.

00:46:15.200 So get up, make

00:46:16.840 your list, you

00:46:18.340 know, just half an

00:46:19.160 hour later, put the

00:46:20.720 list away, and then

00:46:21.820 try to get back to

00:46:22.620 bed, and if you

00:46:23.360 can't stop thinking

00:46:24.260 about it, well, just

00:46:25.160 get up again.

00:46:26.380 But don't lay in

00:46:27.920 bed thinking about

00:46:28.700 what you're going to

00:46:29.220 do, ever.

00:46:31.840 That's what people

00:46:32.600 do wrong the most.

00:46:33.440 The other thing

00:46:35.140 is, what do you

00:46:36.400 think about when

00:46:37.540 you're trying to go

00:46:38.200 to sleep?

00:46:39.760 Do you have a go-to

00:46:41.260 set of thoughts?

00:46:43.580 Now, some people

00:46:44.280 count sheep or try

00:46:45.520 to think of boring

00:46:46.260 things.

00:46:47.140 Here's what I do.

00:46:49.040 I imagine good

00:46:51.960 outcomes in the

00:46:53.740 future, but in

00:46:55.440 more of a not a

00:46:57.520 real-world way.

00:46:58.580 So I'm not

00:46:58.980 thinking so much

00:46:59.740 about what will

00:47:00.240 happen tomorrow,

00:47:01.400 because again, you

00:47:02.060 don't want to think

00:47:02.540 about tomorrow

00:47:03.140 too much.

00:47:04.100 I think about

00:47:04.880 fantastical long-term

00:47:07.100 outcomes, and I

00:47:09.580 create a little

00:47:11.500 movie in my head

00:47:12.500 where I put myself

00:47:13.840 in it, and it's

00:47:15.220 sometime in the

00:47:15.920 future, and

00:47:16.600 something good is

00:47:17.360 happening.

00:47:18.600 It's because I've

00:47:19.680 accomplished something,

00:47:21.000 I got lucky, I was

00:47:22.880 in the right place at

00:47:23.660 the right time.

00:47:24.620 It doesn't matter

00:47:25.140 why.

00:47:25.600 It's just something

00:47:26.080 good is happening.

00:47:27.700 And I force myself

00:47:29.420 to think about this

00:47:31.320 little movie I'm

00:47:32.040 creating of

00:47:32.620 something good.

00:47:34.180 Now, would you

00:47:35.200 like to know what

00:47:37.000 I've been using for

00:47:37.860 most of my life?

00:47:39.200 I'll tell you

00:47:39.820 something.

00:47:41.080 One of them is

00:47:42.200 flying.

00:47:44.580 So I have an

00:47:46.360 imaginary flying

00:47:47.640 future.

00:47:48.580 And in this future,

00:47:49.700 again, this doesn't

00:47:50.680 have to be based on

00:47:51.400 any kind of reality.

00:47:52.640 In the future, I

00:47:54.320 learn how to fly

00:47:55.400 just with my body.

00:47:57.340 I can just hover

00:47:59.060 above the ground.

00:48:00.860 And when I was a

00:48:01.520 kid, about once a

00:48:02.360 year, I would have a

00:48:03.280 flying dream.

00:48:04.620 And what was cool is

00:48:05.740 that every year I'd

00:48:06.440 have the dream from

00:48:07.280 childhood through

00:48:08.300 adult.

00:48:09.440 Every year I'd have

00:48:10.160 the dream, I could

00:48:11.740 fly better in the

00:48:13.020 dream than the last

00:48:13.940 dream.

00:48:14.800 So the initial dreams,

00:48:16.240 I could sort of jump

00:48:17.320 up in the air and

00:48:18.180 hover a little bit

00:48:19.400 and then come down.

00:48:20.720 And then I could

00:48:21.560 sort of make long

00:48:23.200 jumps where I'd sort of

00:48:24.260 hover before I came

00:48:25.640 down.

00:48:26.700 And then the next

00:48:27.260 year, and I'd only

00:48:28.080 have this dream once

00:48:28.920 a year.

00:48:29.780 And once a year, and

00:48:30.740 then finally I'd be

00:48:31.700 able to float around

00:48:33.200 the ceiling.

00:48:35.320 And then finally when

00:48:36.660 I was an adult, after

00:48:38.680 decades of this dream

00:48:41.560 once a year, I got

00:48:44.260 so I could leave the

00:48:45.500 building and fly around

00:48:46.760 in the atmosphere as

00:48:48.300 hard as I wanted,

00:48:49.520 you know, like

00:48:49.900 Superman.

00:48:51.980 I always thought that

00:48:53.060 the dream was an

00:48:54.640 omen of something

00:48:55.480 good.

00:48:56.700 But anyway, because

00:48:57.600 I've had so much

00:48:58.380 time thinking about

00:48:59.400 it, I can actually

00:49:00.120 put myself in the

00:49:03.120 air, in my mind.

00:49:04.800 So I can close my

00:49:05.880 mind and I imagine

00:49:07.620 my astral projection

00:49:09.900 or my body or

00:49:10.820 whatever leaving my

00:49:12.240 body.

00:49:13.360 You can also just

00:49:14.300 imagine that you

00:49:15.200 can fly.

00:49:16.500 It works the same.

00:49:17.640 And then I imagine

00:49:18.640 in my head the

00:49:20.000 actual what it feels

00:49:21.200 like and what it

00:49:21.900 looks like as I'm

00:49:23.700 floating over the

00:49:25.560 houses in my

00:49:26.300 neighborhood.

00:49:27.280 So since you have a

00:49:28.340 general idea of what

00:49:29.320 it would look like,

00:49:30.660 you know, you could

00:49:31.160 sort of imagine, well,

00:49:32.140 if I were hovering over

00:49:33.180 my house looking down,

00:49:35.020 what would it look

00:49:35.560 like?

00:49:36.160 So I simply go flying.

00:49:38.800 And I've been doing it

00:49:39.720 for years.

00:49:40.800 I'll put my head down,

00:49:42.420 close my eyes, and

00:49:43.580 maybe I have some other

00:49:45.420 thoughts in my head and

00:49:46.320 I want to get rid of

00:49:47.020 them.

00:49:47.780 I say, it's time for a

00:49:49.060 flight.

00:49:50.420 And I just, oh, I see

00:49:51.640 other people do the

00:49:52.360 same thing.

00:49:53.400 And so I take off.

00:49:56.020 And I just fly around

00:49:57.220 the neighborhood and I,

00:49:58.640 you know, I land on a

00:50:00.580 roof and I hop off the

00:50:02.360 roof and fly over to

00:50:03.460 another one.

00:50:04.340 And it's so absorbing

00:50:05.580 and it's all positive

00:50:08.280 that it just takes me out

00:50:10.380 of my life and next thing

00:50:11.660 I know I wake up the

00:50:12.440 next morning.

00:50:12.860 Now, I had that dream

00:50:19.780 and I always thought

00:50:21.020 that it presaged some

00:50:22.440 good news.

00:50:24.400 And the last time I had

00:50:25.540 that dream was right 0.91

00:50:28.860 after I became a

00:50:29.740 syndicated cartoonist.

00:50:31.380 So I felt like, you

00:50:33.160 know, just for fun, it

00:50:34.900 feels like that was my

00:50:36.900 prediction, that there was

00:50:38.660 something good ahead of

00:50:39.540 me and it was that.

00:50:40.200 So the other thing

00:50:43.780 that, so I'm going to

00:50:44.960 tell you something, I

00:50:45.880 don't think I've ever

00:50:46.860 told anybody this.

00:50:49.060 But my other one that I

00:50:50.580 would think about all the

00:50:52.140 time from childhood on,

00:50:54.780 it went like this.

00:50:57.320 That someday the

00:50:58.140 president of the United

00:50:59.140 States would call me to

00:51:01.640 meet with him in his

00:51:03.380 office.

00:51:06.340 It's crazy, right?

00:51:07.680 I told you that you

00:51:09.280 you should pick a, like

00:51:10.520 a fantasy thing that

00:51:11.840 you know is not going

00:51:12.580 to happen in the real

00:51:13.360 world.

00:51:14.540 So since, ever since

00:51:15.800 childhood, my most

00:51:17.520 common dream falling

00:51:20.380 off the sleeve fantasy is

00:51:21.780 that the president of the

00:51:23.520 United States summoned me

00:51:24.900 to the Oval Office to

00:51:27.900 chat.

00:51:29.180 Just because of

00:51:30.100 something I did or said

00:51:31.340 or something that he

00:51:33.420 actually wanted to talk

00:51:34.440 to me.

00:51:35.380 So the, and the, and

00:51:36.920 the essence of the

00:51:38.180 fantasy is that it

00:51:39.960 wasn't me trying to get

00:51:41.180 a meeting with the

00:51:41.800 president, but rather he

00:51:43.540 invited me.

00:51:45.040 That just the president

00:51:45.960 invited me to go meet

00:51:47.960 with him in the Oval

00:51:48.660 Office.

00:51:49.320 So of course, that's like

00:51:51.480 a ridiculous thing.

00:51:53.480 You know, it's not like

00:51:54.320 the president ever invites

00:51:55.480 you, hey, why don't you

00:51:56.400 come over and chat with

00:51:58.020 me in the Oval Office?

00:51:59.040 Except that it happened.

00:52:04.720 You know, most of you

00:52:05.700 already know the, the

00:52:06.540 punchline here.

00:52:07.460 So the president in 2018

00:52:09.720 through, through staff

00:52:12.860 contacted me and invited

00:52:14.260 me to meet with him in

00:52:15.460 the Oval Office.

00:52:16.620 And it was, I can't tell

00:52:18.720 you how freaky it was

00:52:19.780 because it was exactly the

00:52:22.400 thing I fall asleep, that

00:52:24.360 I've been falling to sleep

00:52:25.400 to for decades.

00:52:26.880 And, and I, I chose it

00:52:29.560 specifically because it

00:52:31.020 couldn't happen in the

00:52:31.880 real world.

00:52:32.980 You know, sort of like

00:52:33.540 the flying, flying one.

00:52:35.320 You pick them because

00:52:36.520 they can't happen.

00:52:37.560 They're, they're better

00:52:38.240 than life.

00:52:39.520 You know, it's, it's the

00:52:40.300 exaggerated version.

00:52:41.980 And then it happened.

00:52:43.160 So maybe I should have

00:52:44.060 set my sights a little

00:52:44.840 higher.

00:52:45.880 True story.

00:52:49.500 Yeah.

00:52:51.980 That is wild.

00:52:53.680 Did I tell him that?

00:52:54.680 I did not.

00:52:55.460 No.

00:52:56.880 Um, by the way, uh, there's

00:53:01.420 a day coming up in which

00:53:03.560 I'm going to tell you

00:53:04.700 really the, the only

00:53:07.700 substantive part of the

00:53:09.960 conversation I had with

00:53:11.080 the president.

00:53:11.900 Now, you know, the rule,

00:53:13.300 right?

00:53:13.560 If, if, if you ever get

00:53:14.900 invited to talk to somebody

00:53:16.160 in government at a high

00:53:17.260 level, you don't talk

00:53:19.060 about the conversation

00:53:19.960 afterwards.

00:53:20.980 I mean, that's a hard

00:53:22.100 rule, right?

00:53:23.160 It's a private conversation.

00:53:24.700 It doesn't matter who 0.67

00:53:27.500 asks, literally, it doesn't

00:53:29.980 matter who asks, even your

00:53:31.180 spouse.

00:53:32.140 That's a private

00:53:33.000 conversation.

00:53:34.280 You know, it's the

00:53:34.760 privatist conversation there

00:53:36.900 could be because it's the

00:53:38.160 president of the United

00:53:38.820 States.

00:53:39.560 So if you, you know, if you

00:53:41.100 violate that trust, that's,

00:53:42.420 that's as bad as it gets.

00:53:43.880 That said, there was a little

00:53:46.200 exchange that he and I had in

00:53:48.160 the Oval Office that I think

00:53:51.360 sometime in the next month

00:53:52.820 or two, I'll be able to tell

00:53:55.280 you because it makes it look

00:53:56.900 good.

00:53:57.580 So that, that would be my

00:53:58.660 exception.

00:54:00.000 There, there's something he

00:54:01.020 said that was downright

00:54:03.760 psychic.

00:54:06.720 And you have to hear the

00:54:08.240 exchange, but only, only after

00:54:10.140 events prove it out, right?

00:54:12.500 So I'm not going to, if it

00:54:14.020 turns out that events don't go

00:54:17.040 the way I think they're going

00:54:18.280 to go, then I'll never tell

00:54:19.940 you.

00:54:20.500 But it would be an

00:54:22.000 interesting little tidbit if

00:54:23.560 they do go the way, because

00:54:25.360 you're going to see how a

00:54:26.740 psychic he is and it will, it

00:54:28.280 will blow your mind really.

00:54:34.160 So that's all I got for

00:54:36.020 today.

00:54:37.040 I think you're going to go

00:54:38.140 off and have an incredible

00:54:40.640 night.

00:54:42.580 You're going to sleep well.

00:54:44.340 You're going to wake up

00:54:45.140 relaxed.

00:54:45.780 Remember to count to 20.

00:54:48.280 Think about your flying dream.

00:54:49.900 Think about your, it's so

00:54:51.820 impossible feeling of success

00:54:55.020 or happiness in the future.

00:54:57.440 And have yourself a great

00:54:59.820 sleep.

00:55:00.740 I'll talk to you in the

00:55:01.480 morning.

00:55:02.340 You know when.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 04, 2020

Episode 890 Scott Adams： Swaddle With Scott is Happening Now!

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