Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 895 Scott Adams： Catch up on the Day and Learn Some Tricks for Relaxing

00:00:00.360 Bum, pum, pum, pum, pum

00:00:02.260 It's time

00:00:09.860 to get your swaddle on

00:00:12.380 getting mine on

00:00:14.500 if I can find the long side

00:00:17.240 So much better

00:00:23.380 Oh my goodness

00:00:25.400 Get yourself a warm

00:00:30.000 Blanket.

00:00:31.440 It's the best.

00:00:33.300 So let's catch you up on what's happening in the last 12 hours.

00:00:39.520 Does all of this feel like a groundhog day to you?

00:00:44.020 I don't know about you, but there's a certain sameness to every day now.

00:00:49.820 Because I feel like I wake up, I do some cartooning, I do a periscope,

00:00:57.300 and I talk about the same five things.

00:01:01.920 And then there's a press conference with the president and the task force,

00:01:05.920 and they babble the same meaningless stuff that doesn't mean anything,

00:01:10.320 and you can't understand it in context.

00:01:13.320 You don't know if that's enough ventilators or not enough.

00:01:16.560 You really don't know anything.

00:01:18.300 But they sure talk a lot.

00:01:21.880 Then it's this time of night, and then I do this again,

00:01:25.920 and then I'll be going to bed pretty soon.

00:01:30.240 And then I'm going to get up, and I'm going to do exactly the same thing again.

00:01:35.040 It's starting to feel a little repetitive.

00:01:38.020 Am I dead?

00:01:40.560 Is this hell where I just wake up every day in a pandemic,

00:01:44.860 but it never gets worse and it never gets better?

00:01:47.480 It's just, it's about the same yesterday.

00:01:50.360 Do you remember yesterday?

00:01:51.320 Today is like that, but a little bit different.

00:01:57.880 Anyway.

00:01:59.000 But there are some small differences, and we will talk about them.

00:02:04.540 So there's a website that lets you estimate your chances of getting the coronavirus,

00:02:10.460 and then if you get it, your odds of dying from it.

00:02:16.120 I'm not proud to say that I thought,

00:02:20.740 oh, I've got to find out if I'm going to die from the coronavirus.

00:02:24.180 So I just retweeted the site.

00:02:26.880 So if you want to find it for yourself, go to my Twitter feed.

00:02:30.840 It's near the top.

00:02:31.620 And when you put in your particulars, you know, your gender and age and some lifestyle stuff,

00:02:40.140 what your situation is, and this is what it's spit out for me.

00:02:46.460 And tell me if you think this sounds reasonable.

00:02:50.900 It says I have a 55% chance of catching the virus.

00:02:54.300 Now, I put in that I literally am completely alone.

00:03:00.980 Do I have a 55% chance of catching it all alone in my house?

00:03:06.320 Just because, what, I get mail?

00:03:09.740 You know, I order food?

00:03:13.160 That's pretty high.

00:03:14.360 So I'm not sure I believe I have a 55% chance.

00:03:18.100 But the next thing is, what are my odds of dying from it?

00:03:22.080 So again, I put in my particulars.

00:03:25.500 And it said that if I get it, my odds of dying from it are 2.6%.

00:03:32.660 The equivalent of 1 in 38 people.

00:03:40.480 Or if you put it in betting odds, there's a 37 to 1 chance I won't die.

00:03:46.620 So if I get the coronavirus and you want to bet on me,

00:03:51.220 if you want to do a dead pool,

00:03:53.420 the odds apparently are 37 to 1 that I would survive.

00:03:59.940 Not bad.

00:04:01.460 Not bad.

00:04:03.340 On the other hand, is there anything else that has that much of a chance of killing me

00:04:07.360 by the end of the week?

00:04:09.660 Probably not.

00:04:10.540 So in news from the simulation, I think I'll make an ongoing segment that is just news from

00:04:20.220 the simulation.

00:04:21.520 What I mean by that is the idea that we're a software simulation, and if we are, there

00:04:26.720 might be some code reuse.

00:04:29.140 Meaning you would see some patterns that recur that seem like more than coincidence.

00:04:34.320 Of course, this is just for fun, because they're just coincidences.

00:04:39.860 But I like to point them out.

00:04:41.840 Because the alternative explanation that you live in a simulation, and there's code reuse,

00:04:47.420 is just way more fun.

00:04:49.260 Here's an example.

00:04:51.720 According to the news, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for

00:04:57.340 coronavirus.

00:04:57.960 coronavirus, in what may be the first confirmed case of an animal being infected.

00:05:04.200 Now, do you know what is scarier than a tiger?

00:05:11.440 You know, assuming that you're in the same room with a tiger.

00:05:15.280 Do you know what is scarier than that?

00:05:18.940 A tiger with coronavirus.

00:05:22.140 That's sort of two ways to kill you.

00:05:24.620 It's like, oh, good news.

00:05:26.160 You know, the zookeeper pulled you away before you were mauled totally by the tiger.

00:05:32.500 You just got some flesh wounds.

00:05:35.220 Well, now the bad news.

00:05:37.620 You got a little bit of coronavirus.

00:05:40.480 So, what are the odds that we're all going to be watching the Tiger King on Netflix?

00:05:46.100 It's like, you know, it's all the news and social media is like Tiger King, Tiger King, Tiger King.

00:05:51.540 And then the first animal that gets the coronavirus is a tiger.

00:05:58.580 Now, I don't have to tell you that there are many animals in the world.

00:06:04.000 You got your cats.

00:06:05.080 You got your dogs.

00:06:06.340 You got your birds.

00:06:08.740 I could go on, but I think you see the point.

00:06:11.060 There are many animals.

00:06:12.220 But there's only one animal that's sort of all in the headlines at the moment.

00:06:18.220 Well, I guess you could say bat.

00:06:19.860 But, you know, bat would be the other one.

00:06:22.180 But that would be, you know, two on the nose.

00:06:24.440 It's like it comes from a bat and then a bat gets it.

00:06:28.200 Yeah, that's no good.

00:06:29.320 But, if the only animal that gets it first is a tiger, at the same time that tigers are on Netflix, okay, maybe it's a coincidence.

00:06:41.420 Or maybe we live in a simulation.

00:06:45.240 Just maybe.

00:06:47.280 All right.

00:06:47.800 So, you know, as I said, the press conference was, again, very inadequate in my mind.

00:07:01.020 And Jake Tapper had a good piece today on CNN, which he was asking the president what the plan is.

00:07:11.020 And I thought, yeah, it's time to ask that question.

00:07:14.460 I think it wasn't in time a little bit earlier.

00:07:19.920 So, you know, you have to allow that there's the fog of war and there's collecting data and we're learning things and testing things.

00:07:27.280 So you don't always have to have a plan to the end state in the early days because you're just finding your footing.

00:07:36.260 But I think we're just about at the point, especially because of the economic risk, where we sort of have to ask for that, don't we?

00:07:45.040 Don't you think this is the time to start saying, well, just in broad strokes, what's this sort of look like?

00:07:52.760 Because I don't quite understand the part where we go back to work in whenever it is, a month or two months or three months, whenever it is.

00:08:00.620 I don't get that part because doesn't it just come roaring back?

00:08:06.880 I mean, reasonable people have asked.

00:08:08.980 And it is the only thing we're trying to do to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.

00:08:14.700 That's it.

00:08:15.180 So we're just sort of waiting and then we'll send out some more guinea pigs to get it, but that's the plan.

00:08:22.260 Now, it could be that just another week or so would really tell us a lot about the hydroxychloroquine in particular.

00:08:32.360 So there might be a good reason to wait.

00:08:35.920 But I think the public has a right to start demanding some answers.

00:08:38.720 And my big pet peeve, once again, another day goes by in which reporters are desperately trying to ask a question about the sufficiency of various supplies.

00:08:51.800 They're trying to ask the question in a way that they can get any kind of a useful answer.

00:08:57.720 And they really can't, can they?

00:08:59.860 You're noticing that, right?

00:09:01.500 So you're noticing that the reporters are saying, okay, but how many ventilators do you need and how many do you have?

00:09:10.500 You know, they're getting pretty close to asking the right questions now.

00:09:13.200 And you're not getting anything like an indication of a shadow, of a suggestion, of an attempt to even answer the question.

00:09:25.600 I mean, it doesn't matter who's standing up there.

00:09:28.720 Nobody is taking a swing at that.

00:09:31.620 Why?

00:09:33.280 Is it because we don't know that we're, you know, we're 10% of the way or 90% of the way?

00:09:38.860 We don't know.

00:09:39.760 We can't even put a range on it and say, well, we don't know for sure.

00:09:44.020 We hope it's over 70%.

00:09:45.600 But, you know, we're not going to take a chance.

00:09:47.800 So we're going to, if we have to go over 100%, we're going to do it and we're going to try really hard.

00:09:52.020 I mean, there are a million ways you could give a useful answer without precision.

00:09:57.380 But the fact that they can't even give a useful directional approximate, we hope it's in this range kind of an answer.

00:10:05.680 They just spew out the same raw statistics.

00:10:08.120 4,000 ventilators, 6,000 gloves, took from a car and put it in a trunk.

00:10:15.400 We had somebody make some gowns. 1.00

00:10:19.520 There's 75,000 gowns that may be on a truck or possibly plane.

00:10:24.300 We don't know where they are.

00:10:25.400 But in separate news, there are also 70,000 gowns.

00:10:30.120 Oh, wait, I'm just giving you the same statistics I gave yesterday in raw numbers because you can't tell the difference.

00:10:35.860 It sounds like action.

00:10:37.200 But really, it just means I don't know how many we have and how many we need.

00:10:41.220 So, pretty, pretty disappointing, I've got to say.

00:10:46.860 Now, if there's some reason that we can't know that, shouldn't know that, can't be collected, it's impossible to know.

00:10:55.040 Really?

00:10:56.220 Well, you know, take your best shot at explaining it, but I don't think I'm going to believe whatever you tell me.

00:11:01.560 So, there is a very interesting hypothesis floating around.

00:11:07.520 It's brand new.

00:11:08.900 Do you like your brand new hypotheses?

00:11:11.100 That's why you come here, for the brand new hypotheses.

00:11:14.780 You don't want the old ones.

00:11:17.400 So, I will not present this with confidence.

00:11:21.960 So, there would be some things that you hear first on my periscopes that might turn out to be kind of important.

00:11:32.080 But there might be other things you hear that turn out to be nothing later.

00:11:36.240 So, with the understanding that it could go either way, and I don't have an opinion on it,

00:11:41.860 I'm just going to pass it along because it's so darn interesting.

00:11:45.120 So, there's a growing body of anecdotal information.

00:11:49.800 And I'll see if I can do my best to explain this.

00:11:53.000 That the mechanism for why this virus is killing people, specifically the pneumonia lung part,

00:12:02.200 maybe we're looking at it all wrong, meaning scientists and doctors.

00:12:07.400 And the argument for that is that the way the lungs look to the doctors who handle these things

00:12:15.880 is exactly like high-altitude pulmonary edema.

00:12:21.460 And I don't know the details, but it has something to do with damage to your lungs if you're at high altitude for too long.

00:12:28.780 So, apparently doctors who know what that looks like,

00:12:32.260 and there's a whole checklist of, okay, do the lungs look like this?

00:12:36.660 Does it, you know, blah, blah, blah.

00:12:38.800 So, there's a pretty long checklist to show that you have this high-altitude pulmonary edema.

00:12:46.260 And at least on the internet, if you can believe random things on the internet,

00:12:50.920 COVID-19 meets all of the checklist.

00:12:54.140 So, that doesn't mean it is high-altitude pulmonary edema.

00:13:00.820 It means it has the same checklist.

00:13:03.320 So, that raises a question.

00:13:05.780 You know, do we even understand what's going on here?

00:13:08.860 So, the hypothesis goes like this.

00:13:11.380 And this is not mine.

00:13:12.380 I'm just passing it along.

00:13:14.300 That the damage from the virus is in the blood before the lungs.

00:13:20.340 So, in other words, the blood becomes damaged to the point where it can't hold oxygen.

00:13:26.680 And then it doesn't matter what your lungs are doing,

00:13:28.940 because your blood can't hold the oxygen efficiently anymore.

00:13:31.580 So, then the lungs go into some kind of bad state without the oxygen, I guess.

00:13:37.020 So, furthering this hypothesis is the fact that there is anecdotal,

00:13:45.340 but not yet clinically proven evidence that hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug, might work.

00:13:53.820 And I'm told, again, I'm way out of my depths here,

00:13:58.400 so just, you should discount everything I say now.

00:14:01.620 You should forget you were even here.

00:14:04.020 You know, say no more.

00:14:05.680 You know, if anybody asks you what you did recently,

00:14:08.580 just say nothing.

00:14:09.740 I took a nap.

00:14:10.680 I was not listening to a crazy hypothesis

00:14:13.060 that doesn't have sufficient credibility yet.

00:14:17.240 But I will tell you that I'm hearing this from smart, really smart people and from doctors.

00:14:23.080 So, this is not a full crackpot theory.

00:14:26.340 So, at least two people with MD behind their names have been saying this in public.

00:14:31.320 Hey, it looks like this high altitude thing.

00:14:33.960 And it would also explain why the malaria drug works,

00:14:38.380 because apparently malaria has that same quality, if I understand it right.

00:14:43.840 I need a big fact check on this, if anybody can help me.

00:14:46.220 The malaria affects the blood, not so much the lungs.

00:14:52.160 And it might be exactly why the hydroxychloroquine appears to be working for the COVID-19,

00:14:59.520 because it might be doing something protective with the blood.

00:15:03.500 The same way it protects the blood from the malaria is the hypothesis.

00:15:08.220 Now, what are the odds I would put on this?

00:15:14.980 Lowish.

00:15:16.220 Plus, the only reason I would put the odds of this alternate explanation being fruitful

00:15:23.540 is that there are an awful lot of experts looking at this thing.

00:15:29.720 So it would be weird to me and unexpected if we had gotten this far

00:15:35.200 and somebody would have an aha moment of this magnitude.

00:15:39.700 Not impossible.

00:15:41.460 Do not rule it out whatsoever.

00:15:43.500 So I've seen nothing that would rule it out,

00:15:45.540 but I'm so unqualified that I can't rule it in or out.

00:15:49.460 But I would say it falls into the class of things

00:15:52.240 which in general are unlikely.

00:15:56.240 And let's call it the Perry Mason moment.

00:15:59.320 For those of you old enough to remember an old TV show, Perry Mason,

00:16:02.880 the Perry Mason moment is he's in the courtroom,

00:16:06.160 he's a famous lawyer trying the case,

00:16:08.660 and he gets somebody who's in the audience to confess to the crime.

00:16:12.420 That's the Perry Mason moment.

00:16:15.020 Because it's the most unexpected outcome,

00:16:17.660 is that there's a defendant on trial,

00:16:20.360 and you're such a good lawyer that you get somebody in the audience

00:16:22.820 to confess during the trial.

00:16:24.980 So it's like a Perry Mason thing.

00:16:29.020 That we would find out this late in the game

00:16:31.940 and all of those experts would not have sniffed this out by now

00:16:36.240 leads me to believe it's in the category of unlikely things.

00:16:39.980 But I've got to tell you that the people talking about it are smart people.

00:16:48.860 So you're going to have to weigh that.

00:16:52.100 Really smart people talking about it.

00:16:54.260 Really smart people.

00:16:55.180 But it's in that category of things.

00:16:59.440 That's quite often they're not true.

00:17:01.800 So keep an eye on that.

00:17:05.640 Let's see.

00:17:06.420 What else we got going on?

00:17:07.840 Boris Johnson apparently is pretty sick with the coronavirus.

00:17:12.380 And that is terrible.

00:17:16.160 But it makes me ask this question.

00:17:19.600 And maybe in the comments you can tell me.

00:17:22.980 Has there been any celebrity, let's say famous person.

00:17:27.840 So not a celebrity, just a famous person.

00:17:31.220 Has there been the first famous person to die of the coronavirus?

00:17:36.500 And I'm not saying this for sensationalist reason.

00:17:40.720 There's going to be an actual point to this.

00:17:43.520 Because I believe there have been relatives of famous people.

00:17:47.080 Am I right?

00:17:49.480 Relatives of famous people.

00:17:51.400 And people who had some status but I've never heard of them.

00:17:55.880 In other words, somebody had been famous 90 years ago and stuff.

00:18:00.000 And here's the question.

00:18:05.880 How many famous people die every year of regular flu?

00:18:11.580 Of which we now all know there could be 50,000, 100,000, 150,000.

00:18:20.100 So does the regular flu kill celebrities every year?

00:18:25.880 Because that's a lot of people.

00:18:27.860 People are saying Joe Diffie.

00:18:30.000 And I think Joe Diffie, the country singer.

00:18:39.680 Did he die?

00:18:40.800 Bill Withers.

00:18:42.580 Celebrity.

00:18:44.320 He died.

00:18:45.780 Okay.

00:18:46.880 So now we still have the problem of if they had died of the regular flu,

00:18:55.340 would it be reported as they died of the flu?

00:18:59.280 Probably not, right?

00:19:00.860 And if they had died of something just because it was time to die,

00:19:04.080 but they also had a little coronavirus in them,

00:19:07.240 they would be reported as dying of the coronavirus.

00:19:10.240 So here's just a question.

00:19:11.680 I'm not even sure I can make a point out of this yet.

00:19:14.820 I see the name John Prine go by, but I don't know who that is.

00:19:18.420 Ellis, yeah, Marcellus, yeah, his father, right?

00:19:27.800 So there were some relatives and stuff.

00:19:30.980 But keep an eye on this.

00:19:31.980 If it turns out that you keep hearing of celebrities dying from this,

00:19:37.520 but we never hear of celebrities dying from the regular flu,

00:19:40.760 even though we know the regular flu,

00:19:43.020 if you were just to compare the beginning of this one

00:19:45.780 to a full flu that's going a full season,

00:19:48.980 the full flu would have a much higher body count in its fullness

00:19:53.620 than we have seen in this early stage of this one.

00:19:56.940 So it's just something to keep an eye on, right?

00:20:06.540 Apparently, analysts at UBS say that the bookings for cruises next year,

00:20:13.540 what do you guess is the booking rate for cruises next year?

00:20:19.100 So cruise ships, of course, are scarier

00:20:22.040 because everybody's afraid of getting the coronavirus on a cruise ship.

00:20:25.560 But what do you think the bookings look like for 2021?

00:20:31.360 Way up or way down?

00:20:35.200 Turns out they're up sharply.

00:20:38.100 They're up 9% compared to last year.

00:20:41.620 So cruise bookings are up.

00:20:44.020 Now, the story goes on to say it might be just the people who rebooked.

00:20:49.100 You know, they're just optimists and they're like,

00:20:50.700 we'll just give it a year, we'll just push it down a year.

00:20:53.420 So you probably got, you know, it could be only 9% really had the original idea,

00:20:58.720 in theory, just mathematically speaking.

00:21:01.140 It could be only 9% new people and all the rest are just rebooks.

00:21:05.440 I doubt that's the case, but you get the point.

00:21:09.340 So here's where I'm going with this.

00:21:11.520 When you're trying to figure out what will be the final economic outcome of this,

00:21:17.240 let me give you a little economic lesson.

00:21:21.700 And it's a variety of things I've said before.

00:21:25.180 Let's say you are the cruise industry

00:21:27.260 and you just got creamed this year.

00:21:31.640 I don't want to say decimated because that only means 10%.

00:21:34.120 So you're the cruise industry and you just got wiped out.

00:21:37.600 So all of 2020 is just nothing but, you know,

00:21:42.000 hundreds of billions of dollars of losses.

00:21:45.000 But let's say it's six months from now,

00:21:48.140 or yeah, let's say it's the end of the year.

00:21:51.820 And the problem is behind us,

00:21:54.300 sufficiently that people feel safe going on a cruise.

00:21:58.120 But your industry has been just destroyed,

00:22:01.380 you've got all this debt.

00:22:02.460 But can you get a loan to reopen your business?

00:22:08.280 And the answer is,

00:22:09.920 if you've got bookings for the entire year,

00:22:14.440 you probably can.

00:22:16.460 The only thing that would prevent you from reopening

00:22:18.960 is that your customers went away.

00:22:22.180 If you're a good business before this,

00:22:24.960 before the problem,

00:22:26.520 if you are already a good business,

00:22:28.480 and the only thing that happened was

00:22:29.900 you took on a whole bunch of new debt,

00:22:31.500 well, the government might pay some of that,

00:22:34.000 depending on your situation.

00:22:37.200 And some companies might go bankrupt.

00:22:41.000 But the assets would still exist.

00:22:43.880 And another company could say,

00:22:45.680 well, you guys ran up a lot of debt

00:22:47.520 and you can't pay it back,

00:22:48.640 so sorry, you're bankrupt.

00:22:50.400 But we'll buy your ships,

00:22:52.420 we'll buy your operation,

00:22:54.260 and we'll just start our own company.

00:22:56.620 And all the customers are still there.

00:22:58.440 So with the new cruise industry

00:23:02.860 that bought all these assets for practically nothing,

00:23:06.940 the bank lost a lot of money.

00:23:08.920 But the cruise ship has all the bookings for next year,

00:23:12.080 and they've got a cheap boat.

00:23:13.960 Lots of cheap ships, I guess.

00:23:16.000 So it seems to me

00:23:17.440 that if you have this critical thing,

00:23:19.680 which is that people have booked the business in advance,

00:23:22.740 you can open up.

00:23:23.980 So let's take this to its logical conclusion.

00:23:28.860 You've got restaurants that are just getting killed.

00:23:31.900 Very difficult for a restaurant to get credit

00:23:34.840 or to get a loan.

00:23:36.820 But suppose you used something like OpenTable

00:23:41.780 or one of these online reservation systems,

00:23:45.960 and they might have to tweak the system

00:23:48.080 so you could make a reservation a year in advance.

00:23:51.020 What if all of us decided to save the restaurant industry?

00:23:56.520 And you can only do so much now

00:23:58.800 because you can do what I just did before I got on,

00:24:02.340 order some food for delivery.

00:24:04.480 You can get takeout,

00:24:05.900 but that's not enough.

00:24:07.100 I mean, you're lucky if they can limp

00:24:09.420 to a point where something is better.

00:24:11.600 But what if there was an online system

00:24:15.400 and all of us could go online

00:24:17.100 and just book like once a week

00:24:19.780 or whatever is our normal amount of eating out

00:24:22.480 and just book all your local restaurants

00:24:24.680 for the entire 2021?

00:24:28.360 So that when the restaurant goes to their bank

00:24:31.420 and says, we got killed this year,

00:24:33.920 but I've got a really good idea

00:24:37.120 that we're going to have strong business next year,

00:24:39.120 and if you want to know why, look at this.

00:24:42.260 I'm actually booked for every night in 2021,

00:24:46.740 every night, with real people, with real names.

00:24:49.680 Now, I can't guarantee every one of them shows up,

00:24:52.580 but the system will prompt them.

00:24:55.080 I think they'll still be in a mood

00:24:56.600 to want to save the local restaurants.

00:24:58.960 Maybe you should give me a loan

00:25:00.240 because what's better than this?

00:25:02.500 This is better than my regular business.

00:25:04.360 I never had this much business.

00:25:05.660 I've never been booked every day.

00:25:08.560 So there may be a way,

00:25:10.160 because I keep telling you that all of economics

00:25:14.700 is always a psychology experiment.

00:25:19.100 And part of the psychology is to get people

00:25:21.220 to guarantee you business in pretty far future.

00:25:24.820 Because if you can credibly be guaranteed

00:25:28.360 some future business,

00:25:29.960 you can get a loan,

00:25:32.020 and you're back in business.

00:25:33.040 So there are a lot of things

00:25:35.180 that are really different

00:25:36.200 about this situation

00:25:37.740 and starting back the economy

00:25:39.260 that I think we've never seen before.

00:25:42.620 And everything that I feel about it

00:25:45.020 suggests it's going to be way better

00:25:47.900 than even good estimates are.

00:25:51.680 So call me a super bull

00:25:55.860 on human innovation and ingenuity.

00:26:00.120 When it's time to crank back the economy,

00:26:03.560 you saw all the ingenuity

00:26:05.160 that's going into dealing

00:26:06.920 with the medical aspect of the coronavirus.

00:26:10.220 I mean, amazing amount of ingenuity.

00:26:12.220 Just tremendous.

00:26:13.780 We're going to have that same amount of ingenuity

00:26:16.300 on the financial tinkering,

00:26:19.100 on the economics,

00:26:20.440 on the business models.

00:26:22.320 You know, if it's not your thing

00:26:25.040 and you're not a business person,

00:26:28.680 it may be scarier

00:26:29.780 and look like there's not as much flexibility

00:26:32.020 to do things.

00:26:34.400 But I think I could speak

00:26:35.840 for most experienced business people

00:26:38.520 and entrepreneurs.

00:26:40.100 You should check this, by the way.

00:26:41.600 You know, I can't really speak for everybody,

00:26:43.860 but I have a feeling that the people

00:26:46.800 who know the most

00:26:47.900 about how to create a business,

00:26:50.240 you know, what a business model looks like,

00:26:52.340 what are the requirements,

00:26:53.480 how do you get credit,

00:26:54.380 you know, the basics of business.

00:26:55.900 I think the people who know the most about that

00:26:58.080 are probably going to be

00:27:00.100 among the most optimistic

00:27:01.560 about how quickly we can get back.

00:27:04.980 And that has to do with the fact

00:27:06.280 that the people with experience

00:27:07.620 have greater visibility

00:27:08.920 about where all the buttons and levers are.

00:27:11.580 So, you know, sometimes

00:27:14.220 if you're experienced in something,

00:27:16.420 you can smell the solution

00:27:17.800 before you know what it is.

00:27:19.900 You know, let's say you're an experienced mechanic

00:27:22.120 or engineer or even artist, anything.

00:27:25.440 Often, you just,

00:27:26.480 you know where the solution is

00:27:28.100 and you can just smell it,

00:27:31.100 but you can't describe why.

00:27:32.840 It's just something about your experience

00:27:34.460 that says,

00:27:35.460 yeah, there's something here.

00:27:36.740 I don't know what it is,

00:27:37.580 but there's definitely something here.

00:27:38.780 And so my contention is

00:27:41.220 that those of us

00:27:41.920 with lots of business experience

00:27:44.340 see this economy

00:27:47.120 as having every potential still

00:27:49.440 the moment it opens up.

00:27:51.560 We're going to have to re-engineer on the fly,

00:27:54.840 get really clever,

00:27:56.240 get really creative,

00:27:57.900 work really hard,

00:27:59.600 be really disappointed,

00:28:01.520 get back up,

00:28:02.920 make it work again.

00:28:03.760 But it happens to be also

00:28:06.300 the thing we do best.

00:28:08.160 You know,

00:28:08.300 what do Americans do better

00:28:09.880 than figure it out?

00:28:12.460 Right?

00:28:13.240 If there was one thing you could say

00:28:15.220 that defines Americans,

00:28:18.660 and I know I'm talking

00:28:19.700 to an international audience,

00:28:21.580 but maybe you would agree to.

00:28:23.480 You know,

00:28:23.700 this could be just a,

00:28:24.800 you know,

00:28:25.300 an American thing,

00:28:26.160 I don't know.

00:28:27.280 But if you had to,

00:28:27.980 if you said,

00:28:28.420 all right,

00:28:28.680 tell me one thing

00:28:29.700 that defines an American.

00:28:31.280 You know,

00:28:32.320 I'm not counting about,

00:28:33.240 you know,

00:28:33.900 loving the country

00:28:35.000 and the Constitution and stuff.

00:28:36.280 Let's say,

00:28:36.660 let's say that's all a given.

00:28:38.600 But what makes the character

00:28:40.280 of an American?

00:28:42.800 What's the most defining feature?

00:28:45.880 We can figure stuff out.

00:28:48.500 That's our most defining feature.

00:28:51.140 Give us a problem,

00:28:53.140 we'll figure it out.

00:28:54.660 Go to the moon,

00:28:56.060 we'll figure it out.

00:28:57.840 Cure cancer,

00:28:59.000 we're getting there.

00:29:00.580 You know,

00:29:00.800 it's not done,

00:29:01.620 but we're getting there.

00:29:03.440 Build an electric car,

00:29:05.160 you know,

00:29:06.180 you name it.

00:29:07.200 You got a problem.

00:29:09.380 Humans are really,

00:29:10.700 really good at solving problems,

00:29:12.320 even ones we've never seen.

00:29:14.080 So I think you're going to be

00:29:14.980 really surprised

00:29:15.880 in a positive way

00:29:16.880 when things open back up

00:29:19.180 that we will have

00:29:19.940 a better recovery

00:29:20.740 than 90% of the world believes.

00:29:25.460 So I'm going to put me

00:29:26.120 in the 10%

00:29:27.000 who are super optimists

00:29:28.340 because I'm going to bet

00:29:29.660 on people

00:29:30.240 and I'm going to bet

00:29:31.920 on the best of us.

00:29:33.520 So I'm not even betting

00:29:34.380 on average people

00:29:35.580 because average people,

00:29:37.500 you know,

00:29:37.800 if you can find your way

00:29:38.880 back to your old job,

00:29:39.840 that's probably good enough.

00:29:42.000 So most of us

00:29:43.520 don't need to do

00:29:44.560 anything heroic.

00:29:45.260 We just need to show up.

00:29:48.120 But like everything else,

00:29:49.620 there are going to be those,

00:29:51.220 you know,

00:29:51.480 that 1%,

00:29:52.520 that 2%,

00:29:53.260 maybe it's 10%,

00:29:55.060 but the best of us

00:29:57.460 are going to figure out

00:29:59.080 how to do it differently

00:30:00.080 because that's the whole thing,

00:30:01.940 right?

00:30:02.440 You can't just go back to work

00:30:04.400 like nothing happened.

00:30:05.800 You've got some problems

00:30:07.140 to solve,

00:30:08.260 but they're well within

00:30:09.420 the solvable range

00:30:10.680 for the most clever among us

00:30:13.100 who have the right intentions

00:30:14.880 and everybody's really

00:30:16.060 sort of got the same,

00:30:17.900 you know, direction.

00:30:19.440 So all good news.

00:30:21.300 I was asked to give you

00:30:22.600 some tips on how to relax,

00:30:24.500 which I'm going to do

00:30:25.600 right now.

00:30:27.260 This is the portion

00:30:28.280 in which I tell you

00:30:30.160 how to enjoy

00:30:31.240 your social isolation

00:30:34.120 and how to bring down

00:30:36.940 your feelings of anxiety

00:30:40.640 should any arise.

00:30:43.280 It's tense times,

00:30:44.900 I know.

00:30:46.060 Number one,

00:30:47.960 you're going to have to take breaks

00:30:49.440 from social media

00:30:50.640 and the news.

00:30:52.040 You just have to.

00:30:54.540 Very important.

00:30:56.000 You don't have to take

00:30:56.960 the whole afternoon off

00:30:59.020 because there's so much happening.

00:31:00.660 It really probably pays

00:31:02.020 to dip in every now and then

00:31:03.240 just in case

00:31:03.780 something important happens.

00:31:05.300 But you can take an hour off.

00:31:08.100 You could take two hours off.

00:31:10.400 So build that into every day.

00:31:11.680 Make sure you get a little

00:31:12.800 alone time

00:31:14.440 without the news of any kind.

00:31:16.400 Likewise,

00:31:17.760 if you're trying,

00:31:18.620 if your goal is

00:31:19.680 removing tension

00:31:21.480 and relaxing,

00:31:22.200 and it should be your goal,

00:31:23.040 and by the way,

00:31:23.660 it should be your full-time job.

00:31:25.760 When I think what my job is,

00:31:28.060 you know,

00:31:28.380 for my life,

00:31:29.980 in terms of the selfish part

00:31:31.740 of what I do,

00:31:32.340 not the things I might do

00:31:33.360 for other people,

00:31:34.300 but in terms of taking care

00:31:35.380 of myself,

00:31:36.520 I see my job

00:31:37.700 as removing my stress.

00:31:41.140 That's like the main job.

00:31:42.540 And there are a hundred ways

00:31:43.420 to do it

00:31:44.060 and many things

00:31:45.240 I would do

00:31:45.660 to get that done,

00:31:46.640 including,

00:31:47.600 you know,

00:31:48.020 maybe completing

00:31:49.860 my work on time.

00:31:51.580 But everything is really

00:31:52.680 about my energy

00:31:53.580 and my stress,

00:31:55.220 energy and stress

00:31:56.000 being related.

00:31:57.120 If you have too much stress,

00:31:58.560 it hurts your energy,

00:31:59.620 et cetera.

00:32:01.800 So,

00:32:02.640 you want to avoid

00:32:03.420 anything that puts you

00:32:04.660 in the wrong frame of mind.

00:32:05.860 So don't do

00:32:06.620 tense movies.

00:32:08.820 Do comedies.

00:32:11.040 Don't do music

00:32:12.360 that,

00:32:12.860 you know,

00:32:13.180 is headbanger music,

00:32:14.740 even if it's

00:32:16.320 your favorite music.

00:32:17.700 Just take a break

00:32:18.560 from any music,

00:32:19.600 any music that's

00:32:20.740 provocative

00:32:21.460 or is trying to work you

00:32:23.240 into some kind

00:32:23.880 of emotional state

00:32:24.980 that's not the one

00:32:26.180 you want.

00:32:27.580 All right.

00:32:28.020 Now,

00:32:28.320 if you're going to listen

00:32:28.880 to classical music,

00:32:30.180 you know,

00:32:30.460 that's probably fine.

00:32:31.720 But anything that

00:32:32.460 puts you in the wrong

00:32:33.360 frame of mind

00:32:35.120 or even anything

00:32:36.300 that reminds you

00:32:37.320 of,

00:32:37.620 you know,

00:32:37.800 that past boyfriend

00:32:39.220 or girlfriend,

00:32:39.980 anything like that,

00:32:41.360 just avoid it

00:32:42.200 because that's all

00:32:43.100 just polluting your mind

00:32:44.440 at a time when

00:32:45.260 it's hard enough

00:32:46.400 to keep it straight.

00:32:49.080 The other thing

00:32:49.840 you should do

00:32:50.360 is obviously

00:32:52.500 avoid caffeine.

00:32:53.940 You know,

00:32:54.120 after a certain part

00:32:54.820 of the day,

00:32:55.260 everybody's different.

00:32:56.640 So by now,

00:32:57.340 you probably know

00:32:57.860 your reaction.

00:32:59.000 But more than ever,

00:33:00.720 if it's your habit

00:33:01.680 to have a cup of coffee

00:33:03.120 late in the afternoon,

00:33:05.000 maybe rethink that

00:33:06.220 just for now.

00:33:07.840 You know,

00:33:08.060 go for decaf.

00:33:09.920 It's easy to get

00:33:10.860 into habits

00:33:11.480 and then not realize

00:33:13.180 that your habit

00:33:14.340 is no longer

00:33:15.080 suited to the

00:33:16.320 current situation.

00:33:17.880 So if your habit

00:33:18.640 was,

00:33:19.200 I drink coffee,

00:33:20.360 you know,

00:33:20.880 five o'clock at night,

00:33:22.280 never bothered me

00:33:23.240 before,

00:33:24.820 but maybe today

00:33:25.560 it does.

00:33:26.200 So just give a thought

00:33:27.400 that you might want

00:33:28.040 to change some

00:33:28.580 of your habits

00:33:29.220 to optimize

00:33:30.280 for this situation.

00:33:31.680 So definitely

00:33:32.160 get enough sleep.

00:33:33.100 That's the main thing.

00:33:34.000 If you get enough sleep,

00:33:35.320 everything's easier

00:33:36.320 and you can solve

00:33:38.460 problems easier,

00:33:39.500 things don't bother you,

00:33:41.380 you feel better.

00:33:42.920 So your stress

00:33:43.720 will just naturally

00:33:44.580 be better

00:33:45.080 if you get more sleep.

00:33:46.020 So that's just

00:33:46.740 an obvious one.

00:33:47.320 I cannot emphasize

00:33:50.080 enough

00:33:50.680 the importance

00:33:52.620 of light

00:33:53.460 daily exercise

00:33:54.780 as in

00:33:55.620 making sure

00:33:56.880 that you literally

00:33:57.600 get exercise

00:33:58.220 every day.

00:33:58.860 there's such a difference

00:34:01.940 in what that does

00:34:02.640 to your stress level.

00:34:04.120 And again,

00:34:05.300 emphasis on the light.

00:34:07.620 If the reason

00:34:08.240 you don't exercise

00:34:09.120 is because you just

00:34:10.160 don't like beating

00:34:11.480 yourself up

00:34:12.260 and you're not really

00:34:13.960 that no pain,

00:34:14.760 no gain kind of person,

00:34:15.740 I'm not even talking

00:34:16.460 about that.

00:34:17.640 I'm literally just

00:34:18.480 talking about taking

00:34:19.620 a nice leisurely walk

00:34:21.040 as far as you want to go.

00:34:23.900 You know,

00:34:24.120 whatever your body

00:34:24.880 tells you is right.

00:34:26.520 So emphasis

00:34:27.200 on the light part.

00:34:28.380 just for stress reduction.

00:34:30.800 This is not about

00:34:31.580 building muscles,

00:34:32.500 not about losing weight.

00:34:34.220 At the moment,

00:34:35.460 your top priority

00:34:36.460 is just

00:34:38.100 chilling out.

00:34:39.900 So optimize

00:34:40.640 your exercise

00:34:41.520 for that objective

00:34:43.460 to chill out.

00:34:46.080 Light exercise.

00:34:47.060 Walks are great.

00:34:50.520 Next,

00:34:51.640 I usually

00:34:53.340 make it a point

00:34:54.660 to take my lunch

00:34:56.620 as me time.

00:34:59.040 And I've always

00:34:59.860 done this.

00:35:00.400 This is a long time

00:35:01.860 habit.

00:35:03.080 So a lot of people

00:35:03.800 will say,

00:35:04.260 I have so much to do,

00:35:05.500 I'm going to eat

00:35:06.920 and at the same time

00:35:08.720 I'm going to be

00:35:09.340 doing some work.

00:35:10.400 So I'll multitask.

00:35:12.000 I get that sometimes

00:35:13.300 we have to do that.

00:35:15.160 But man,

00:35:16.500 you should try

00:35:17.500 as hard as you can

00:35:18.960 not to.

00:35:20.660 Give yourself

00:35:21.460 that 45 minutes,

00:35:23.280 whatever it is,

00:35:24.120 that's just you,

00:35:26.480 your food,

00:35:28.100 your beverage,

00:35:29.560 and maybe

00:35:30.480 something on your

00:35:31.180 phone that's not

00:35:32.120 reminding you of

00:35:32.840 anything tense.

00:35:33.760 You're not doing

00:35:34.480 emails necessarily.

00:35:35.860 You're texting a friend,

00:35:37.700 watching a YouTube

00:35:38.480 that's funny,

00:35:39.200 that sort of thing.

00:35:40.200 But just

00:35:40.580 leave the world

00:35:42.380 behind for a little

00:35:43.240 while.

00:35:43.980 I've given you

00:35:44.620 lots of sleep tips

00:35:45.900 about make sure

00:35:46.960 that you use the bed

00:35:47.760 just for sleeping

00:35:49.120 and adult behavior.

00:35:52.660 But you also

00:35:53.560 want to get

00:35:53.900 your oxytocin up.

00:35:56.860 Oxytocin is

00:35:57.500 the drug

00:35:58.120 or the chemical

00:35:59.160 that your body

00:35:59.660 produces

00:36:00.080 when you have

00:36:01.440 close personal

00:36:02.340 relationships

00:36:03.020 that are good.

00:36:04.260 So if you're

00:36:04.840 making love

00:36:05.900 with somebody you love

00:36:06.720 or you're

00:36:07.700 hugging somebody,

00:36:09.400 you're just

00:36:09.740 canoodling with

00:36:11.260 somebody in a

00:36:11.980 close, intimate way.

00:36:13.480 So if there's

00:36:13.900 somebody like that

00:36:14.620 in your life,

00:36:15.300 somebody that you

00:36:15.900 can spoon,

00:36:17.580 spoon it up.

00:36:19.120 So you should

00:36:20.180 spoon for

00:36:20.820 medicinal reasons.

00:36:22.860 If you're going

00:36:23.460 to watch a TV

00:36:24.160 show, watch a

00:36:25.960 comedy, get in

00:36:27.880 spooning position

00:36:28.720 on the couch.

00:36:30.300 Now, if your

00:36:31.340 partner is not

00:36:32.580 watching this right

00:36:33.280 now, you should

00:36:34.760 go to them and

00:36:35.420 say, baby, I

00:36:38.560 know we usually

00:36:39.120 sit in different

00:36:39.900 chairs, and I

00:36:41.880 know usually

00:36:42.840 that's fine.

00:36:45.840 But this is

00:36:46.960 like getting

00:36:47.800 getting lost

00:36:49.340 in a snow

00:36:49.800 storm, you

00:36:50.880 might have to

00:36:51.560 use your body

00:36:52.740 warmth.

00:36:53.860 But it's not

00:36:54.500 body warmth you

00:36:55.140 need, it's the

00:36:55.920 oxytocin.

00:36:57.060 It's that feeling

00:36:58.040 of being close

00:36:59.080 to somebody.

00:37:00.300 So your

00:37:00.620 assignment

00:37:01.040 tonight, be it

00:37:03.040 in bed or be it

00:37:03.780 in your couch, is

00:37:05.660 to spoon it up.

00:37:07.300 Spoon it.

00:37:08.900 And watch how

00:37:09.600 you feel.

00:37:10.960 And watch your

00:37:11.560 stress just melt

00:37:13.220 away.

00:37:14.220 So those are your

00:37:14.840 tips.

00:37:15.040 I might think

00:37:15.500 of some more

00:37:15.860 tips later.

00:37:16.920 But don't think

00:37:17.480 too much about

00:37:18.260 the bad news.

00:37:19.340 Think about the

00:37:19.860 best possible

00:37:20.460 outcomes.

00:37:21.620 Fill your mental

00:37:22.380 shelf space with

00:37:23.280 good thoughts so

00:37:24.260 that the bad ones

00:37:25.220 don't have room.

00:37:27.560 Just think of it

00:37:28.280 as the shelf has

00:37:29.680 to be filled,

00:37:30.500 because you can't

00:37:31.180 think of nothing.

00:37:32.340 You could try, but

00:37:33.100 it doesn't work.

00:37:34.320 So if there's

00:37:34.880 going to be

00:37:35.180 something on your

00:37:35.860 mental shelf space,

00:37:37.420 you be the

00:37:38.380 author.

00:37:39.720 Put stuff on it

00:37:40.660 until it's all

00:37:41.460 full.

00:37:42.340 Keeps the bad

00:37:43.000 thoughts out.

00:37:43.540 That's your trick

00:37:44.460 for tonight.

00:37:45.560 I will talk to

00:37:46.060 you in the

00:37:46.320 morning, 10 a.m.

00:37:48.240 Eastern, 7 a.m.

00:37:50.340 Pacific, and we'll

00:37:52.040 solve this pandemic

00:37:53.000 then.

00:37:54.200 I promise.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 06, 2020

Episode 895 Scott Adams： Catch up on the Day and Learn Some Tricks for Relaxing

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