Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 06, 2020


Episode 895 Scott Adams： Catch up on the Day and Learn Some Tricks for Relaxing


Episode Stats

Length

37 minutes

Words per Minute

150.16354

Word Count

5,693

Sentence Count

387

Misogynist Sentences

1


Summary

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for Coronavirus, and it may be the first confirmed case of an animal being infected with the virus. Is this a real pandemic, or just a software simulation?


Transcript

00:00:00.360 Bum, pum, pum, pum, pum
00:00:02.260 It's time
00:00:09.860 to get your swaddle on
00:00:12.380 getting mine on
00:00:14.500 if I can find the long side
00:00:17.240 So much better
00:00:23.380 Oh my goodness
00:00:25.400 Get yourself a warm
00:00:30.000 Blanket.
00:00:31.440 It's the best.
00:00:33.300 So let's catch you up on what's happening in the last 12 hours.
00:00:39.520 Does all of this feel like a groundhog day to you?
00:00:44.020 I don't know about you, but there's a certain sameness to every day now.
00:00:49.820 Because I feel like I wake up, I do some cartooning, I do a periscope,
00:00:57.300 and I talk about the same five things.
00:01:01.920 And then there's a press conference with the president and the task force,
00:01:05.920 and they babble the same meaningless stuff that doesn't mean anything,
00:01:10.320 and you can't understand it in context.
00:01:13.320 You don't know if that's enough ventilators or not enough.
00:01:16.560 You really don't know anything.
00:01:18.300 But they sure talk a lot.
00:01:21.880 Then it's this time of night, and then I do this again,
00:01:25.920 and then I'll be going to bed pretty soon.
00:01:30.240 And then I'm going to get up, and I'm going to do exactly the same thing again.
00:01:35.040 It's starting to feel a little repetitive.
00:01:38.020 Am I dead?
00:01:40.560 Is this hell where I just wake up every day in a pandemic,
00:01:44.860 but it never gets worse and it never gets better?
00:01:47.480 It's just, it's about the same yesterday.
00:01:50.360 Do you remember yesterday?
00:01:51.320 Today is like that, but a little bit different.
00:01:57.880 Anyway.
00:01:59.000 But there are some small differences, and we will talk about them.
00:02:04.540 So there's a website that lets you estimate your chances of getting the coronavirus,
00:02:10.460 and then if you get it, your odds of dying from it.
00:02:16.120 I'm not proud to say that I thought,
00:02:20.740 oh, I've got to find out if I'm going to die from the coronavirus.
00:02:24.180 So I just retweeted the site.
00:02:26.880 So if you want to find it for yourself, go to my Twitter feed.
00:02:30.840 It's near the top.
00:02:31.620 And when you put in your particulars, you know, your gender and age and some lifestyle stuff,
00:02:40.140 what your situation is, and this is what it's spit out for me.
00:02:46.460 And tell me if you think this sounds reasonable.
00:02:50.900 It says I have a 55% chance of catching the virus.
00:02:54.300 Now, I put in that I literally am completely alone.
00:03:00.980 Do I have a 55% chance of catching it all alone in my house?
00:03:06.320 Just because, what, I get mail?
00:03:09.740 You know, I order food?
00:03:13.160 That's pretty high.
00:03:14.360 So I'm not sure I believe I have a 55% chance.
00:03:18.100 But the next thing is, what are my odds of dying from it?
00:03:22.080 So again, I put in my particulars.
00:03:25.500 And it said that if I get it, my odds of dying from it are 2.6%.
00:03:32.660 The equivalent of 1 in 38 people.
00:03:40.480 Or if you put it in betting odds, there's a 37 to 1 chance I won't die.
00:03:46.620 So if I get the coronavirus and you want to bet on me,
00:03:51.220 if you want to do a dead pool,
00:03:53.420 the odds apparently are 37 to 1 that I would survive.
00:03:59.940 Not bad.
00:04:01.460 Not bad.
00:04:03.340 On the other hand, is there anything else that has that much of a chance of killing me
00:04:07.360 by the end of the week?
00:04:09.660 Probably not.
00:04:10.540 So in news from the simulation, I think I'll make an ongoing segment that is just news from
00:04:20.220 the simulation.
00:04:21.520 What I mean by that is the idea that we're a software simulation, and if we are, there
00:04:26.720 might be some code reuse.
00:04:29.140 Meaning you would see some patterns that recur that seem like more than coincidence.
00:04:34.320 Of course, this is just for fun, because they're just coincidences.
00:04:39.860 But I like to point them out.
00:04:41.840 Because the alternative explanation that you live in a simulation, and there's code reuse,
00:04:47.420 is just way more fun.
00:04:49.260 Here's an example.
00:04:51.720 According to the news, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York City has tested positive for
00:04:57.340 coronavirus.
00:04:57.960 coronavirus, in what may be the first confirmed case of an animal being infected.
00:05:04.200 Now, do you know what is scarier than a tiger?
00:05:11.440 You know, assuming that you're in the same room with a tiger.
00:05:15.280 Do you know what is scarier than that?
00:05:18.940 A tiger with coronavirus.
00:05:22.140 That's sort of two ways to kill you.
00:05:24.620 It's like, oh, good news.
00:05:26.160 You know, the zookeeper pulled you away before you were mauled totally by the tiger.
00:05:32.500 You just got some flesh wounds.
00:05:35.220 Well, now the bad news.
00:05:37.620 You got a little bit of coronavirus.
00:05:40.480 So, what are the odds that we're all going to be watching the Tiger King on Netflix?
00:05:46.100 It's like, you know, it's all the news and social media is like Tiger King, Tiger King, Tiger King.
00:05:51.540 And then the first animal that gets the coronavirus is a tiger.
00:05:58.580 Now, I don't have to tell you that there are many animals in the world.
00:06:04.000 You got your cats.
00:06:05.080 You got your dogs.
00:06:06.340 You got your birds.
00:06:08.740 I could go on, but I think you see the point.
00:06:11.060 There are many animals.
00:06:12.220 But there's only one animal that's sort of all in the headlines at the moment.
00:06:18.220 Well, I guess you could say bat.
00:06:19.860 But, you know, bat would be the other one.
00:06:22.180 But that would be, you know, two on the nose.
00:06:24.440 It's like it comes from a bat and then a bat gets it.
00:06:28.200 Yeah, that's no good.
00:06:29.320 But, if the only animal that gets it first is a tiger, at the same time that tigers are on Netflix, okay, maybe it's a coincidence.
00:06:41.420 Or maybe we live in a simulation.
00:06:45.240 Just maybe.
00:06:47.280 All right.
00:06:47.800 So, you know, as I said, the press conference was, again, very inadequate in my mind.
00:07:01.020 And Jake Tapper had a good piece today on CNN, which he was asking the president what the plan is.
00:07:11.020 And I thought, yeah, it's time to ask that question.
00:07:14.460 I think it wasn't in time a little bit earlier.
00:07:19.920 So, you know, you have to allow that there's the fog of war and there's collecting data and we're learning things and testing things.
00:07:27.280 So you don't always have to have a plan to the end state in the early days because you're just finding your footing.
00:07:36.260 But I think we're just about at the point, especially because of the economic risk, where we sort of have to ask for that, don't we?
00:07:45.040 Don't you think this is the time to start saying, well, just in broad strokes, what's this sort of look like?
00:07:52.760 Because I don't quite understand the part where we go back to work in whenever it is, a month or two months or three months, whenever it is.
00:08:00.620 I don't get that part because doesn't it just come roaring back?
00:08:06.880 I mean, reasonable people have asked.
00:08:08.980 And it is the only thing we're trying to do to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.
00:08:14.700 That's it.
00:08:15.180 So we're just sort of waiting and then we'll send out some more guinea pigs to get it, but that's the plan.
00:08:22.260 Now, it could be that just another week or so would really tell us a lot about the hydroxychloroquine in particular.
00:08:32.360 So there might be a good reason to wait.
00:08:35.920 But I think the public has a right to start demanding some answers.
00:08:38.720 And my big pet peeve, once again, another day goes by in which reporters are desperately trying to ask a question about the sufficiency of various supplies.
00:08:51.800 They're trying to ask the question in a way that they can get any kind of a useful answer.
00:08:57.720 And they really can't, can they?
00:08:59.860 You're noticing that, right?
00:09:01.500 So you're noticing that the reporters are saying, okay, but how many ventilators do you need and how many do you have?
00:09:10.500 You know, they're getting pretty close to asking the right questions now.
00:09:13.200 And you're not getting anything like an indication of a shadow, of a suggestion, of an attempt to even answer the question.
00:09:25.600 I mean, it doesn't matter who's standing up there.
00:09:28.720 Nobody is taking a swing at that.
00:09:31.620 Why?
00:09:33.280 Is it because we don't know that we're, you know, we're 10% of the way or 90% of the way?
00:09:38.860 We don't know.
00:09:39.760 We can't even put a range on it and say, well, we don't know for sure.
00:09:44.020 We hope it's over 70%.
00:09:45.600 But, you know, we're not going to take a chance.
00:09:47.800 So we're going to, if we have to go over 100%, we're going to do it and we're going to try really hard.
00:09:52.020 I mean, there are a million ways you could give a useful answer without precision.
00:09:57.380 But the fact that they can't even give a useful directional approximate, we hope it's in this range kind of an answer.
00:10:05.680 They just spew out the same raw statistics.
00:10:08.120 4,000 ventilators, 6,000 gloves, took from a car and put it in a trunk.
00:10:15.400 We had somebody make some gowns.
00:10:19.520 There's 75,000 gowns that may be on a truck or possibly plane.
00:10:24.300 We don't know where they are.
00:10:25.400 But in separate news, there are also 70,000 gowns.
00:10:30.120 Oh, wait, I'm just giving you the same statistics I gave yesterday in raw numbers because you can't tell the difference.
00:10:35.860 It sounds like action.
00:10:37.200 But really, it just means I don't know how many we have and how many we need.
00:10:41.220 So, pretty, pretty disappointing, I've got to say.
00:10:46.860 Now, if there's some reason that we can't know that, shouldn't know that, can't be collected, it's impossible to know.
00:10:55.040 Really?
00:10:56.220 Well, you know, take your best shot at explaining it, but I don't think I'm going to believe whatever you tell me.
00:11:01.560 So, there is a very interesting hypothesis floating around.
00:11:07.520 It's brand new.
00:11:08.900 Do you like your brand new hypotheses?
00:11:11.100 That's why you come here, for the brand new hypotheses.
00:11:14.780 You don't want the old ones.
00:11:17.400 So, I will not present this with confidence.
00:11:21.960 So, there would be some things that you hear first on my periscopes that might turn out to be kind of important.
00:11:32.080 But there might be other things you hear that turn out to be nothing later.
00:11:36.240 So, with the understanding that it could go either way, and I don't have an opinion on it,
00:11:41.860 I'm just going to pass it along because it's so darn interesting.
00:11:45.120 So, there's a growing body of anecdotal information.
00:11:49.800 And I'll see if I can do my best to explain this.
00:11:53.000 That the mechanism for why this virus is killing people, specifically the pneumonia lung part,
00:12:02.200 maybe we're looking at it all wrong, meaning scientists and doctors.
00:12:07.400 And the argument for that is that the way the lungs look to the doctors who handle these things
00:12:15.880 is exactly like high-altitude pulmonary edema.
00:12:21.460 And I don't know the details, but it has something to do with damage to your lungs if you're at high altitude for too long.
00:12:28.780 So, apparently doctors who know what that looks like,
00:12:32.260 and there's a whole checklist of, okay, do the lungs look like this?
00:12:36.660 Does it, you know, blah, blah, blah.
00:12:38.800 So, there's a pretty long checklist to show that you have this high-altitude pulmonary edema.
00:12:46.260 And at least on the internet, if you can believe random things on the internet,
00:12:50.920 COVID-19 meets all of the checklist.
00:12:54.140 So, that doesn't mean it is high-altitude pulmonary edema.
00:13:00.820 It means it has the same checklist.
00:13:03.320 So, that raises a question.
00:13:05.780 You know, do we even understand what's going on here?
00:13:08.860 So, the hypothesis goes like this.
00:13:11.380 And this is not mine.
00:13:12.380 I'm just passing it along.
00:13:14.300 That the damage from the virus is in the blood before the lungs.
00:13:20.340 So, in other words, the blood becomes damaged to the point where it can't hold oxygen.
00:13:26.680 And then it doesn't matter what your lungs are doing,
00:13:28.940 because your blood can't hold the oxygen efficiently anymore.
00:13:31.580 So, then the lungs go into some kind of bad state without the oxygen, I guess.
00:13:37.020 So, furthering this hypothesis is the fact that there is anecdotal,
00:13:45.340 but not yet clinically proven evidence that hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug, might work.
00:13:53.820 And I'm told, again, I'm way out of my depths here,
00:13:58.400 so just, you should discount everything I say now.
00:14:01.620 You should forget you were even here.
00:14:04.020 You know, say no more.
00:14:05.680 You know, if anybody asks you what you did recently,
00:14:08.580 just say nothing.
00:14:09.740 I took a nap.
00:14:10.680 I was not listening to a crazy hypothesis
00:14:13.060 that doesn't have sufficient credibility yet.
00:14:17.240 But I will tell you that I'm hearing this from smart, really smart people and from doctors.
00:14:23.080 So, this is not a full crackpot theory.
00:14:26.340 So, at least two people with MD behind their names have been saying this in public.
00:14:31.320 Hey, it looks like this high altitude thing.
00:14:33.960 And it would also explain why the malaria drug works,
00:14:38.380 because apparently malaria has that same quality, if I understand it right.
00:14:43.840 I need a big fact check on this, if anybody can help me.
00:14:46.220 The malaria affects the blood, not so much the lungs.
00:14:52.160 And it might be exactly why the hydroxychloroquine appears to be working for the COVID-19,
00:14:59.520 because it might be doing something protective with the blood.
00:15:03.500 The same way it protects the blood from the malaria is the hypothesis.
00:15:08.220 Now, what are the odds I would put on this?
00:15:14.980 Lowish.
00:15:16.220 Plus, the only reason I would put the odds of this alternate explanation being fruitful
00:15:23.540 is that there are an awful lot of experts looking at this thing.
00:15:29.720 So it would be weird to me and unexpected if we had gotten this far
00:15:35.200 and somebody would have an aha moment of this magnitude.
00:15:39.700 Not impossible.
00:15:41.460 Do not rule it out whatsoever.
00:15:43.500 So I've seen nothing that would rule it out,
00:15:45.540 but I'm so unqualified that I can't rule it in or out.
00:15:49.460 But I would say it falls into the class of things
00:15:52.240 which in general are unlikely.
00:15:56.240 And let's call it the Perry Mason moment.
00:15:59.320 For those of you old enough to remember an old TV show, Perry Mason,
00:16:02.880 the Perry Mason moment is he's in the courtroom,
00:16:06.160 he's a famous lawyer trying the case,
00:16:08.660 and he gets somebody who's in the audience to confess to the crime.
00:16:12.420 That's the Perry Mason moment.
00:16:15.020 Because it's the most unexpected outcome,
00:16:17.660 is that there's a defendant on trial,
00:16:20.360 and you're such a good lawyer that you get somebody in the audience
00:16:22.820 to confess during the trial.
00:16:24.980 So it's like a Perry Mason thing.
00:16:29.020 That we would find out this late in the game
00:16:31.940 and all of those experts would not have sniffed this out by now
00:16:36.240 leads me to believe it's in the category of unlikely things.
00:16:39.980 But I've got to tell you that the people talking about it are smart people.
00:16:48.860 So you're going to have to weigh that.
00:16:52.100 Really smart people talking about it.
00:16:54.260 Really smart people.
00:16:55.180 But it's in that category of things.
00:16:59.440 That's quite often they're not true.
00:17:01.800 So keep an eye on that.
00:17:05.640 Let's see.
00:17:06.420 What else we got going on?
00:17:07.840 Boris Johnson apparently is pretty sick with the coronavirus.
00:17:12.380 And that is terrible.
00:17:16.160 But it makes me ask this question.
00:17:19.600 And maybe in the comments you can tell me.
00:17:22.980 Has there been any celebrity, let's say famous person.
00:17:27.840 So not a celebrity, just a famous person.
00:17:31.220 Has there been the first famous person to die of the coronavirus?
00:17:36.500 And I'm not saying this for sensationalist reason.
00:17:40.720 There's going to be an actual point to this.
00:17:43.520 Because I believe there have been relatives of famous people.
00:17:47.080 Am I right?
00:17:49.480 Relatives of famous people.
00:17:51.400 And people who had some status but I've never heard of them.
00:17:55.880 In other words, somebody had been famous 90 years ago and stuff.
00:18:00.000 And here's the question.
00:18:05.880 How many famous people die every year of regular flu?
00:18:11.580 Of which we now all know there could be 50,000, 100,000, 150,000.
00:18:20.100 So does the regular flu kill celebrities every year?
00:18:25.880 Because that's a lot of people.
00:18:27.860 People are saying Joe Diffie.
00:18:30.000 And I think Joe Diffie, the country singer.
00:18:39.680 Did he die?
00:18:40.800 Bill Withers.
00:18:42.580 Celebrity.
00:18:44.320 He died.
00:18:45.780 Okay.
00:18:46.880 So now we still have the problem of if they had died of the regular flu,
00:18:55.340 would it be reported as they died of the flu?
00:18:59.280 Probably not, right?
00:19:00.860 And if they had died of something just because it was time to die,
00:19:04.080 but they also had a little coronavirus in them,
00:19:07.240 they would be reported as dying of the coronavirus.
00:19:10.240 So here's just a question.
00:19:11.680 I'm not even sure I can make a point out of this yet.
00:19:14.820 I see the name John Prine go by, but I don't know who that is.
00:19:18.420 Ellis, yeah, Marcellus, yeah, his father, right?
00:19:27.800 So there were some relatives and stuff.
00:19:30.980 But keep an eye on this.
00:19:31.980 If it turns out that you keep hearing of celebrities dying from this,
00:19:37.520 but we never hear of celebrities dying from the regular flu,
00:19:40.760 even though we know the regular flu,
00:19:43.020 if you were just to compare the beginning of this one
00:19:45.780 to a full flu that's going a full season,
00:19:48.980 the full flu would have a much higher body count in its fullness
00:19:53.620 than we have seen in this early stage of this one.
00:19:56.940 So it's just something to keep an eye on, right?
00:20:06.540 Apparently, analysts at UBS say that the bookings for cruises next year,
00:20:13.540 what do you guess is the booking rate for cruises next year?
00:20:19.100 So cruise ships, of course, are scarier
00:20:22.040 because everybody's afraid of getting the coronavirus on a cruise ship.
00:20:25.560 But what do you think the bookings look like for 2021?
00:20:31.360 Way up or way down?
00:20:35.200 Turns out they're up sharply.
00:20:38.100 They're up 9% compared to last year.
00:20:41.620 So cruise bookings are up.
00:20:44.020 Now, the story goes on to say it might be just the people who rebooked.
00:20:49.100 You know, they're just optimists and they're like,
00:20:50.700 we'll just give it a year, we'll just push it down a year.
00:20:53.420 So you probably got, you know, it could be only 9% really had the original idea,
00:20:58.720 in theory, just mathematically speaking.
00:21:01.140 It could be only 9% new people and all the rest are just rebooks.
00:21:05.440 I doubt that's the case, but you get the point.
00:21:09.340 So here's where I'm going with this.
00:21:11.520 When you're trying to figure out what will be the final economic outcome of this,
00:21:17.240 let me give you a little economic lesson.
00:21:21.700 And it's a variety of things I've said before.
00:21:25.180 Let's say you are the cruise industry
00:21:27.260 and you just got creamed this year.
00:21:31.640 I don't want to say decimated because that only means 10%.
00:21:34.120 So you're the cruise industry and you just got wiped out.
00:21:37.600 So all of 2020 is just nothing but, you know,
00:21:42.000 hundreds of billions of dollars of losses.
00:21:45.000 But let's say it's six months from now,
00:21:48.140 or yeah, let's say it's the end of the year.
00:21:51.820 And the problem is behind us,
00:21:54.300 sufficiently that people feel safe going on a cruise.
00:21:58.120 But your industry has been just destroyed,
00:22:01.380 you've got all this debt.
00:22:02.460 But can you get a loan to reopen your business?
00:22:08.280 And the answer is,
00:22:09.920 if you've got bookings for the entire year,
00:22:14.440 you probably can.
00:22:16.460 The only thing that would prevent you from reopening
00:22:18.960 is that your customers went away.
00:22:22.180 If you're a good business before this,
00:22:24.960 before the problem,
00:22:26.520 if you are already a good business,
00:22:28.480 and the only thing that happened was
00:22:29.900 you took on a whole bunch of new debt,
00:22:31.500 well, the government might pay some of that,
00:22:34.000 depending on your situation.
00:22:37.200 And some companies might go bankrupt.
00:22:41.000 But the assets would still exist.
00:22:43.880 And another company could say,
00:22:45.680 well, you guys ran up a lot of debt
00:22:47.520 and you can't pay it back,
00:22:48.640 so sorry, you're bankrupt.
00:22:50.400 But we'll buy your ships,
00:22:52.420 we'll buy your operation,
00:22:54.260 and we'll just start our own company.
00:22:56.620 And all the customers are still there.
00:22:58.440 So with the new cruise industry
00:23:02.860 that bought all these assets for practically nothing,
00:23:06.940 the bank lost a lot of money.
00:23:08.920 But the cruise ship has all the bookings for next year,
00:23:12.080 and they've got a cheap boat.
00:23:13.960 Lots of cheap ships, I guess.
00:23:16.000 So it seems to me
00:23:17.440 that if you have this critical thing,
00:23:19.680 which is that people have booked the business in advance,
00:23:22.740 you can open up.
00:23:23.980 So let's take this to its logical conclusion.
00:23:28.860 You've got restaurants that are just getting killed.
00:23:31.900 Very difficult for a restaurant to get credit
00:23:34.840 or to get a loan.
00:23:36.820 But suppose you used something like OpenTable
00:23:41.780 or one of these online reservation systems,
00:23:45.960 and they might have to tweak the system
00:23:48.080 so you could make a reservation a year in advance.
00:23:51.020 What if all of us decided to save the restaurant industry?
00:23:56.520 And you can only do so much now
00:23:58.800 because you can do what I just did before I got on,
00:24:02.340 order some food for delivery.
00:24:04.480 You can get takeout,
00:24:05.900 but that's not enough.
00:24:07.100 I mean, you're lucky if they can limp
00:24:09.420 to a point where something is better.
00:24:11.600 But what if there was an online system
00:24:15.400 and all of us could go online
00:24:17.100 and just book like once a week
00:24:19.780 or whatever is our normal amount of eating out
00:24:22.480 and just book all your local restaurants
00:24:24.680 for the entire 2021?
00:24:28.360 So that when the restaurant goes to their bank
00:24:31.420 and says, we got killed this year,
00:24:33.920 but I've got a really good idea
00:24:37.120 that we're going to have strong business next year,
00:24:39.120 and if you want to know why, look at this.
00:24:42.260 I'm actually booked for every night in 2021,
00:24:46.740 every night, with real people, with real names.
00:24:49.680 Now, I can't guarantee every one of them shows up,
00:24:52.580 but the system will prompt them.
00:24:55.080 I think they'll still be in a mood
00:24:56.600 to want to save the local restaurants.
00:24:58.960 Maybe you should give me a loan
00:25:00.240 because what's better than this?
00:25:02.500 This is better than my regular business.
00:25:04.360 I never had this much business.
00:25:05.660 I've never been booked every day.
00:25:08.560 So there may be a way,
00:25:10.160 because I keep telling you that all of economics
00:25:14.700 is always a psychology experiment.
00:25:19.100 And part of the psychology is to get people
00:25:21.220 to guarantee you business in pretty far future.
00:25:24.820 Because if you can credibly be guaranteed
00:25:28.360 some future business,
00:25:29.960 you can get a loan,
00:25:32.020 and you're back in business.
00:25:33.040 So there are a lot of things
00:25:35.180 that are really different
00:25:36.200 about this situation
00:25:37.740 and starting back the economy
00:25:39.260 that I think we've never seen before.
00:25:42.620 And everything that I feel about it
00:25:45.020 suggests it's going to be way better
00:25:47.900 than even good estimates are.
00:25:51.680 So call me a super bull
00:25:55.860 on human innovation and ingenuity.
00:26:00.120 When it's time to crank back the economy,
00:26:03.560 you saw all the ingenuity
00:26:05.160 that's going into dealing
00:26:06.920 with the medical aspect of the coronavirus.
00:26:10.220 I mean, amazing amount of ingenuity.
00:26:12.220 Just tremendous.
00:26:13.780 We're going to have that same amount of ingenuity
00:26:16.300 on the financial tinkering,
00:26:19.100 on the economics,
00:26:20.440 on the business models.
00:26:22.320 You know, if it's not your thing
00:26:25.040 and you're not a business person,
00:26:28.680 it may be scarier
00:26:29.780 and look like there's not as much flexibility
00:26:32.020 to do things.
00:26:34.400 But I think I could speak
00:26:35.840 for most experienced business people
00:26:38.520 and entrepreneurs.
00:26:40.100 You should check this, by the way.
00:26:41.600 You know, I can't really speak for everybody,
00:26:43.860 but I have a feeling that the people
00:26:46.800 who know the most
00:26:47.900 about how to create a business,
00:26:50.240 you know, what a business model looks like,
00:26:52.340 what are the requirements,
00:26:53.480 how do you get credit,
00:26:54.380 you know, the basics of business.
00:26:55.900 I think the people who know the most about that
00:26:58.080 are probably going to be
00:27:00.100 among the most optimistic
00:27:01.560 about how quickly we can get back.
00:27:04.980 And that has to do with the fact
00:27:06.280 that the people with experience
00:27:07.620 have greater visibility
00:27:08.920 about where all the buttons and levers are.
00:27:11.580 So, you know, sometimes
00:27:14.220 if you're experienced in something,
00:27:16.420 you can smell the solution
00:27:17.800 before you know what it is.
00:27:19.900 You know, let's say you're an experienced mechanic
00:27:22.120 or engineer or even artist, anything.
00:27:25.440 Often, you just,
00:27:26.480 you know where the solution is
00:27:28.100 and you can just smell it,
00:27:31.100 but you can't describe why.
00:27:32.840 It's just something about your experience
00:27:34.460 that says,
00:27:35.460 yeah, there's something here.
00:27:36.740 I don't know what it is,
00:27:37.580 but there's definitely something here.
00:27:38.780 And so my contention is
00:27:41.220 that those of us
00:27:41.920 with lots of business experience
00:27:44.340 see this economy
00:27:47.120 as having every potential still
00:27:49.440 the moment it opens up.
00:27:51.560 We're going to have to re-engineer on the fly,
00:27:54.840 get really clever,
00:27:56.240 get really creative,
00:27:57.900 work really hard,
00:27:59.600 be really disappointed,
00:28:01.520 get back up,
00:28:02.920 make it work again.
00:28:03.760 But it happens to be also
00:28:06.300 the thing we do best.
00:28:08.160 You know,
00:28:08.300 what do Americans do better
00:28:09.880 than figure it out?
00:28:12.460 Right?
00:28:13.240 If there was one thing you could say
00:28:15.220 that defines Americans,
00:28:18.660 and I know I'm talking
00:28:19.700 to an international audience,
00:28:21.580 but maybe you would agree to.
00:28:23.480 You know,
00:28:23.700 this could be just a,
00:28:24.800 you know,
00:28:25.300 an American thing,
00:28:26.160 I don't know.
00:28:27.280 But if you had to,
00:28:27.980 if you said,
00:28:28.420 all right,
00:28:28.680 tell me one thing
00:28:29.700 that defines an American.
00:28:31.280 You know,
00:28:32.320 I'm not counting about,
00:28:33.240 you know,
00:28:33.900 loving the country
00:28:35.000 and the Constitution and stuff.
00:28:36.280 Let's say,
00:28:36.660 let's say that's all a given.
00:28:38.600 But what makes the character
00:28:40.280 of an American?
00:28:42.800 What's the most defining feature?
00:28:45.880 We can figure stuff out.
00:28:48.500 That's our most defining feature.
00:28:51.140 Give us a problem,
00:28:53.140 we'll figure it out.
00:28:54.660 Go to the moon,
00:28:56.060 we'll figure it out.
00:28:57.840 Cure cancer,
00:28:59.000 we're getting there.
00:29:00.580 You know,
00:29:00.800 it's not done,
00:29:01.620 but we're getting there.
00:29:03.440 Build an electric car,
00:29:05.160 you know,
00:29:06.180 you name it.
00:29:07.200 You got a problem.
00:29:09.380 Humans are really,
00:29:10.700 really good at solving problems,
00:29:12.320 even ones we've never seen.
00:29:14.080 So I think you're going to be
00:29:14.980 really surprised
00:29:15.880 in a positive way
00:29:16.880 when things open back up
00:29:19.180 that we will have
00:29:19.940 a better recovery
00:29:20.740 than 90% of the world believes.
00:29:25.460 So I'm going to put me
00:29:26.120 in the 10%
00:29:27.000 who are super optimists
00:29:28.340 because I'm going to bet
00:29:29.660 on people
00:29:30.240 and I'm going to bet
00:29:31.920 on the best of us.
00:29:33.520 So I'm not even betting
00:29:34.380 on average people
00:29:35.580 because average people,
00:29:37.500 you know,
00:29:37.800 if you can find your way
00:29:38.880 back to your old job,
00:29:39.840 that's probably good enough.
00:29:42.000 So most of us
00:29:43.520 don't need to do
00:29:44.560 anything heroic.
00:29:45.260 We just need to show up.
00:29:48.120 But like everything else,
00:29:49.620 there are going to be those,
00:29:51.220 you know,
00:29:51.480 that 1%,
00:29:52.520 that 2%,
00:29:53.260 maybe it's 10%,
00:29:55.060 but the best of us
00:29:57.460 are going to figure out
00:29:59.080 how to do it differently
00:30:00.080 because that's the whole thing,
00:30:01.940 right?
00:30:02.440 You can't just go back to work
00:30:04.400 like nothing happened.
00:30:05.800 You've got some problems
00:30:07.140 to solve,
00:30:08.260 but they're well within
00:30:09.420 the solvable range
00:30:10.680 for the most clever among us
00:30:13.100 who have the right intentions
00:30:14.880 and everybody's really
00:30:16.060 sort of got the same,
00:30:17.900 you know, direction.
00:30:19.440 So all good news.
00:30:21.300 I was asked to give you
00:30:22.600 some tips on how to relax,
00:30:24.500 which I'm going to do
00:30:25.600 right now.
00:30:27.260 This is the portion
00:30:28.280 in which I tell you
00:30:30.160 how to enjoy
00:30:31.240 your social isolation
00:30:34.120 and how to bring down
00:30:36.940 your feelings of anxiety
00:30:40.640 should any arise.
00:30:43.280 It's tense times,
00:30:44.900 I know.
00:30:46.060 Number one,
00:30:47.960 you're going to have to take breaks
00:30:49.440 from social media
00:30:50.640 and the news.
00:30:52.040 You just have to.
00:30:54.540 Very important.
00:30:56.000 You don't have to take
00:30:56.960 the whole afternoon off
00:30:59.020 because there's so much happening.
00:31:00.660 It really probably pays
00:31:02.020 to dip in every now and then
00:31:03.240 just in case
00:31:03.780 something important happens.
00:31:05.300 But you can take an hour off.
00:31:08.100 You could take two hours off.
00:31:10.400 So build that into every day.
00:31:11.680 Make sure you get a little
00:31:12.800 alone time
00:31:14.440 without the news of any kind.
00:31:16.400 Likewise,
00:31:17.760 if you're trying,
00:31:18.620 if your goal is
00:31:19.680 removing tension
00:31:21.480 and relaxing,
00:31:22.200 and it should be your goal,
00:31:23.040 and by the way,
00:31:23.660 it should be your full-time job.
00:31:25.760 When I think what my job is,
00:31:28.060 you know,
00:31:28.380 for my life,
00:31:29.980 in terms of the selfish part
00:31:31.740 of what I do,
00:31:32.340 not the things I might do
00:31:33.360 for other people,
00:31:34.300 but in terms of taking care
00:31:35.380 of myself,
00:31:36.520 I see my job
00:31:37.700 as removing my stress.
00:31:41.140 That's like the main job.
00:31:42.540 And there are a hundred ways
00:31:43.420 to do it
00:31:44.060 and many things
00:31:45.240 I would do
00:31:45.660 to get that done,
00:31:46.640 including,
00:31:47.600 you know,
00:31:48.020 maybe completing
00:31:49.860 my work on time.
00:31:51.580 But everything is really
00:31:52.680 about my energy
00:31:53.580 and my stress,
00:31:55.220 energy and stress
00:31:56.000 being related.
00:31:57.120 If you have too much stress,
00:31:58.560 it hurts your energy,
00:31:59.620 et cetera.
00:32:01.800 So,
00:32:02.640 you want to avoid
00:32:03.420 anything that puts you
00:32:04.660 in the wrong frame of mind.
00:32:05.860 So don't do
00:32:06.620 tense movies.
00:32:08.820 Do comedies.
00:32:11.040 Don't do music
00:32:12.360 that,
00:32:12.860 you know,
00:32:13.180 is headbanger music,
00:32:14.740 even if it's
00:32:16.320 your favorite music.
00:32:17.700 Just take a break
00:32:18.560 from any music,
00:32:19.600 any music that's
00:32:20.740 provocative
00:32:21.460 or is trying to work you
00:32:23.240 into some kind
00:32:23.880 of emotional state
00:32:24.980 that's not the one
00:32:26.180 you want.
00:32:27.580 All right.
00:32:28.020 Now,
00:32:28.320 if you're going to listen
00:32:28.880 to classical music,
00:32:30.180 you know,
00:32:30.460 that's probably fine.
00:32:31.720 But anything that
00:32:32.460 puts you in the wrong
00:32:33.360 frame of mind
00:32:35.120 or even anything
00:32:36.300 that reminds you
00:32:37.320 of,
00:32:37.620 you know,
00:32:37.800 that past boyfriend
00:32:39.220 or girlfriend,
00:32:39.980 anything like that,
00:32:41.360 just avoid it
00:32:42.200 because that's all
00:32:43.100 just polluting your mind
00:32:44.440 at a time when
00:32:45.260 it's hard enough
00:32:46.400 to keep it straight.
00:32:49.080 The other thing
00:32:49.840 you should do
00:32:50.360 is obviously
00:32:52.500 avoid caffeine.
00:32:53.940 You know,
00:32:54.120 after a certain part
00:32:54.820 of the day,
00:32:55.260 everybody's different.
00:32:56.640 So by now,
00:32:57.340 you probably know
00:32:57.860 your reaction.
00:32:59.000 But more than ever,
00:33:00.720 if it's your habit
00:33:01.680 to have a cup of coffee
00:33:03.120 late in the afternoon,
00:33:05.000 maybe rethink that
00:33:06.220 just for now.
00:33:07.840 You know,
00:33:08.060 go for decaf.
00:33:09.920 It's easy to get
00:33:10.860 into habits
00:33:11.480 and then not realize
00:33:13.180 that your habit
00:33:14.340 is no longer
00:33:15.080 suited to the
00:33:16.320 current situation.
00:33:17.880 So if your habit
00:33:18.640 was,
00:33:19.200 I drink coffee,
00:33:20.360 you know,
00:33:20.880 five o'clock at night,
00:33:22.280 never bothered me
00:33:23.240 before,
00:33:24.820 but maybe today
00:33:25.560 it does.
00:33:26.200 So just give a thought
00:33:27.400 that you might want
00:33:28.040 to change some
00:33:28.580 of your habits
00:33:29.220 to optimize
00:33:30.280 for this situation.
00:33:31.680 So definitely
00:33:32.160 get enough sleep.
00:33:33.100 That's the main thing.
00:33:34.000 If you get enough sleep,
00:33:35.320 everything's easier
00:33:36.320 and you can solve
00:33:38.460 problems easier,
00:33:39.500 things don't bother you,
00:33:41.380 you feel better.
00:33:42.920 So your stress
00:33:43.720 will just naturally
00:33:44.580 be better
00:33:45.080 if you get more sleep.
00:33:46.020 So that's just
00:33:46.740 an obvious one.
00:33:47.320 I cannot emphasize
00:33:50.080 enough
00:33:50.680 the importance
00:33:52.620 of light
00:33:53.460 daily exercise
00:33:54.780 as in
00:33:55.620 making sure
00:33:56.880 that you literally
00:33:57.600 get exercise
00:33:58.220 every day.
00:33:58.860 there's such a difference
00:34:01.940 in what that does
00:34:02.640 to your stress level.
00:34:04.120 And again,
00:34:05.300 emphasis on the light.
00:34:07.620 If the reason
00:34:08.240 you don't exercise
00:34:09.120 is because you just
00:34:10.160 don't like beating
00:34:11.480 yourself up
00:34:12.260 and you're not really
00:34:13.960 that no pain,
00:34:14.760 no gain kind of person,
00:34:15.740 I'm not even talking
00:34:16.460 about that.
00:34:17.640 I'm literally just
00:34:18.480 talking about taking
00:34:19.620 a nice leisurely walk
00:34:21.040 as far as you want to go.
00:34:23.900 You know,
00:34:24.120 whatever your body
00:34:24.880 tells you is right.
00:34:26.520 So emphasis
00:34:27.200 on the light part.
00:34:28.380 just for stress reduction.
00:34:30.800 This is not about
00:34:31.580 building muscles,
00:34:32.500 not about losing weight.
00:34:34.220 At the moment,
00:34:35.460 your top priority
00:34:36.460 is just
00:34:38.100 chilling out.
00:34:39.900 So optimize
00:34:40.640 your exercise
00:34:41.520 for that objective
00:34:43.460 to chill out.
00:34:46.080 Light exercise.
00:34:47.060 Walks are great.
00:34:50.520 Next,
00:34:51.640 I usually
00:34:53.340 make it a point
00:34:54.660 to take my lunch
00:34:56.620 as me time.
00:34:59.040 And I've always
00:34:59.860 done this.
00:35:00.400 This is a long time
00:35:01.860 habit.
00:35:03.080 So a lot of people
00:35:03.800 will say,
00:35:04.260 I have so much to do,
00:35:05.500 I'm going to eat
00:35:06.920 and at the same time
00:35:08.720 I'm going to be
00:35:09.340 doing some work.
00:35:10.400 So I'll multitask.
00:35:12.000 I get that sometimes
00:35:13.300 we have to do that.
00:35:15.160 But man,
00:35:16.500 you should try
00:35:17.500 as hard as you can
00:35:18.960 not to.
00:35:20.660 Give yourself
00:35:21.460 that 45 minutes,
00:35:23.280 whatever it is,
00:35:24.120 that's just you,
00:35:26.480 your food,
00:35:28.100 your beverage,
00:35:29.560 and maybe
00:35:30.480 something on your
00:35:31.180 phone that's not
00:35:32.120 reminding you of
00:35:32.840 anything tense.
00:35:33.760 You're not doing
00:35:34.480 emails necessarily.
00:35:35.860 You're texting a friend,
00:35:37.700 watching a YouTube
00:35:38.480 that's funny,
00:35:39.200 that sort of thing.
00:35:40.200 But just
00:35:40.580 leave the world
00:35:42.380 behind for a little
00:35:43.240 while.
00:35:43.980 I've given you
00:35:44.620 lots of sleep tips
00:35:45.900 about make sure
00:35:46.960 that you use the bed
00:35:47.760 just for sleeping
00:35:49.120 and adult behavior.
00:35:52.660 But you also
00:35:53.560 want to get
00:35:53.900 your oxytocin up.
00:35:56.860 Oxytocin is
00:35:57.500 the drug
00:35:58.120 or the chemical
00:35:59.160 that your body
00:35:59.660 produces
00:36:00.080 when you have
00:36:01.440 close personal
00:36:02.340 relationships
00:36:03.020 that are good.
00:36:04.260 So if you're
00:36:04.840 making love
00:36:05.900 with somebody you love
00:36:06.720 or you're
00:36:07.700 hugging somebody,
00:36:09.400 you're just
00:36:09.740 canoodling with
00:36:11.260 somebody in a
00:36:11.980 close, intimate way.
00:36:13.480 So if there's
00:36:13.900 somebody like that
00:36:14.620 in your life,
00:36:15.300 somebody that you
00:36:15.900 can spoon,
00:36:17.580 spoon it up.
00:36:19.120 So you should
00:36:20.180 spoon for
00:36:20.820 medicinal reasons.
00:36:22.860 If you're going
00:36:23.460 to watch a TV
00:36:24.160 show, watch a
00:36:25.960 comedy, get in
00:36:27.880 spooning position
00:36:28.720 on the couch.
00:36:30.300 Now, if your
00:36:31.340 partner is not
00:36:32.580 watching this right
00:36:33.280 now, you should
00:36:34.760 go to them and
00:36:35.420 say, baby, I
00:36:38.560 know we usually
00:36:39.120 sit in different
00:36:39.900 chairs, and I
00:36:41.880 know usually
00:36:42.840 that's fine.
00:36:45.840 But this is
00:36:46.960 like getting
00:36:47.800 getting lost
00:36:49.340 in a snow
00:36:49.800 storm, you
00:36:50.880 might have to
00:36:51.560 use your body
00:36:52.740 warmth.
00:36:53.860 But it's not
00:36:54.500 body warmth you
00:36:55.140 need, it's the
00:36:55.920 oxytocin.
00:36:57.060 It's that feeling
00:36:58.040 of being close
00:36:59.080 to somebody.
00:37:00.300 So your
00:37:00.620 assignment
00:37:01.040 tonight, be it
00:37:03.040 in bed or be it
00:37:03.780 in your couch, is
00:37:05.660 to spoon it up.
00:37:07.300 Spoon it.
00:37:08.900 And watch how
00:37:09.600 you feel.
00:37:10.960 And watch your
00:37:11.560 stress just melt
00:37:13.220 away.
00:37:14.220 So those are your
00:37:14.840 tips.
00:37:15.040 I might think
00:37:15.500 of some more
00:37:15.860 tips later.
00:37:16.920 But don't think
00:37:17.480 too much about
00:37:18.260 the bad news.
00:37:19.340 Think about the
00:37:19.860 best possible
00:37:20.460 outcomes.
00:37:21.620 Fill your mental
00:37:22.380 shelf space with
00:37:23.280 good thoughts so
00:37:24.260 that the bad ones
00:37:25.220 don't have room.
00:37:27.560 Just think of it
00:37:28.280 as the shelf has
00:37:29.680 to be filled,
00:37:30.500 because you can't
00:37:31.180 think of nothing.
00:37:32.340 You could try, but
00:37:33.100 it doesn't work.
00:37:34.320 So if there's
00:37:34.880 going to be
00:37:35.180 something on your
00:37:35.860 mental shelf space,
00:37:37.420 you be the
00:37:38.380 author.
00:37:39.720 Put stuff on it
00:37:40.660 until it's all
00:37:41.460 full.
00:37:42.340 Keeps the bad
00:37:43.000 thoughts out.
00:37:43.540 That's your trick
00:37:44.460 for tonight.
00:37:45.560 I will talk to
00:37:46.060 you in the
00:37:46.320 morning, 10 a.m.
00:37:48.240 Eastern, 7 a.m.
00:37:50.340 Pacific, and we'll
00:37:52.040 solve this pandemic
00:37:53.000 then.
00:37:54.200 I promise.