Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 901 Scott Adams： I Feel a Sensational Simultaneous Swaddle Coming on. Don't Resist!

00:00:00.000 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum. 1.00

00:00:05.680 Put your phones on silent. You know what time it is.

00:00:10.640 Yeah. Yeah you do. It's time for the evening simultaneous swaddle.

00:00:16.960 That's where you get your blanket on. Oh yeah.

00:00:20.960 Feels comfortable. Calms you down from these stressful times.

00:00:27.360 It's a way to get off the news. I'm trying to wean you off the news so that you can

00:00:32.560 slip into a comfortable great night's sleep. And you know you're addicted.

00:00:39.440 You're addicted to it. Because your days are better. All right. Now I'd like to thank

00:00:48.320 all the people who made news today that had nothing to do with the coronavirus.

00:00:52.960 Because I don't know about you. But I wouldn't mind talking about something else for a while.

00:00:59.920 First of the news. Linda Tripp has passed away just hours ago I guess.

00:01:07.600 And she was called the Clinton sex scandal whistleblower. 0.99

00:01:13.120 She died at the age of 70.

00:01:14.640 And I would like to read this sentence to you from the Daily Mail. This is a British publication.

00:01:22.720 And I want you to fill in the last part of the sentence.

00:01:27.440 Now I swear I'm not making this up.

00:01:31.840 Everything I tell you from you know about this totally legitimate.

00:01:36.480 And I just want you to guess how this sentence ends. I'll just read you the first part.

00:01:43.440 This is from the Daily Mail today.

00:01:45.120 Quote.

00:01:48.240 Linda Tripp's secret conversations with Monica Lewinsky led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 1.00

00:01:55.360 after she blew the, finish the sentence. 1.00

00:02:02.240 Linda Tripp's secret conversations with Monica Lewinsky led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 1.00

00:02:08.720 after she blew the, after she blew the, after she blew the, after she blew the, after she blew the, after she blew the whistle on their affair.

00:02:22.960 Because she was a whistleblower. 1.00

00:02:24.720 Oh, oh, the sentence was talking about Linda Tripp.

00:02:29.760 Okay, okay, I got it now. Got it.

00:02:31.680 All right.

00:02:33.280 Um, you probably know by now that, uh, Bernie Sanders has dropped out.

00:02:41.280 He's, he's dropped out of the race, but he's keeping his delegates. 0.88

00:02:47.160 That's not exactly, uh, a good loser, is it?

00:02:51.960 I'm going to drop out of the race, but I might keep my delegates.

00:02:57.400 I'm not going to give me my delegates.

00:02:59.000 So, it's not a clean win for Biden.

00:03:06.500 Um, and of course, by now you've all seen the, the President Trump quote.

00:03:12.680 And, uh, I say this a lot, but it always bears repeating.

00:03:17.740 President Trump doesn't even know how to be uninteresting.

00:03:22.720 You know, love him or hate him, you know, he annoys you, you know, you love him, whatever.

00:03:29.440 No matter what you think of him.

00:03:31.360 I just don't think it's in his character that he can be uninteresting.

00:03:37.040 Like, in any context, anywhere, in any room, under any situation.

00:03:42.640 He's, everything he says is just like, wait, what?

00:03:45.980 And this is another one.

00:03:48.740 So, his reaction when he heard the news, he was talking about it.

00:03:52.160 He said, quote, I don't know why President Obama hasn't supported Joe Biden a long time ago, Trump says.

00:03:58.600 Uh, he feels something is wrong.

00:04:02.020 It does, he feels something is wrong.

00:04:07.400 It does amaze me that President Obama hasn't supported Sleepy Joe.

00:04:12.320 He knows something that you don't know, that I think I know, that you don't know.

00:04:18.180 Now, you have to admit, if you had said, okay, we're going to have this, you know, moment when you're going to say something in public.

00:04:32.780 And I want you to, you know, get the best writers in the world and bring them together and try to come up with a sentence or two.

00:04:39.720 That's so provocative and so, and so, and so, so screws with your head that the people can't stop talking about it for 24 hours.

00:04:50.460 And you'd have the best writers in the world and be like, well, suppose he says this.

00:04:54.500 Now, that won't work.

00:04:55.920 And I don't know if you could, I don't know if the best writers in the world could have come up with something that's, that's more provocative than the way I think he just sort of came up with it on the spot.

00:05:09.720 I mean, that really is a gift, you have to admit.

00:05:12.240 Love it or hate it, you just can't turn away.

00:05:15.700 It's just so interesting the way he does it.

00:05:18.000 Now, of course, one of the many things he does right in holding your attention, I've talked about before, it's an author's trick and a writer's trick, which is you create curiosity.

00:05:31.680 And you see the President do that all the time.

00:05:33.580 He says, well, you know, you'll find out later.

00:05:36.140 He always does, he likes to have little surprises.

00:05:38.260 He likes to tease you that there might be a surprise coming.

00:05:42.600 So he knows how to keep you interested by not giving you the answer.

00:05:47.880 Because anybody, anybody standard, like a normal politician who didn't know how to do this stuff so well, a normal politician would have just made an accusation.

00:05:57.000 A normal politician would say, well, Joe Biden's a socialist too.

00:06:05.020 Or he voted against that thing or he was for this war or something.

00:06:11.600 I mean, that's how any normal politician would have approached it.

00:06:15.500 You would just say a fact.

00:06:16.660 But a fact gives you no curiosity.

00:06:20.600 There's no curiosity.

00:06:21.880 It's just, oh, yeah, of course you say that because you're on the other side.

00:06:25.740 I'm going to hear this a million more times.

00:06:27.700 It doesn't stick at all.

00:06:29.580 But Trump puts it in the form of like a puzzle, a riddle.

00:06:33.220 It's a quiz.

00:06:35.520 It's sort of a quiz and a riddle.

00:06:37.940 It's sort of a story with a cliffhanger.

00:06:40.480 You don't know quite what the answer to the story is, but you feel you have a notion.

00:06:47.480 And it might be the same notion he has.

00:06:49.800 Now, I've told you before that two of the strongest forms of persuasion are pacing and leading.

00:06:59.040 And so in this case, the president is sort of pacing the public because the public feels almost exactly the way he's framing it, which is, I think I know why Obama's not endorsing him.

00:07:12.680 I'm not going to say it out loud, but I think I know.

00:07:16.200 Now, so he knows how to completely connect with his supporters in a way nobody's ever really done before, I don't think, from the presidency.

00:07:28.620 And then the other trick, which I've talked about less, but it might be the most powerful one, is when he tells you what you're thinking as you're thinking it.

00:07:38.780 Have I ever, I don't know if you've heard me say that before, but a powerful way to instantly connect with somebody in a way that allows you to be influential with them, because that connection just like locks in.

00:07:53.280 And you can do it very quickly.

00:07:56.020 And the technique is you tell somebody what they're thinking accurately.

00:08:01.760 I mean, if you do it wrong, then it doesn't work at all.

00:08:04.320 But if you can accurately guess, because you've just been around a while and you know how brains work, if you can guess somebody's unique thought, and the trick is it has to be a unique thought, not an obvious one.

00:08:18.440 You know, guessing that somebody's hungry before lunch is not going to get it done.

00:08:22.380 So you want to, you want to like reach in and guess somebody's really specific thought.

00:08:28.040 And if you can do that, you just go click and you, and the two of you lock in.

00:08:33.400 And then, you know, there's a opportunity or a channel open for persuasion.

00:08:38.720 And you see the president doing this in this way, because he says it directly.

00:08:44.440 He knows something that you don't know, that I think I know that you don't know.

00:08:49.240 So he's basically talking about what's in our heads and everybody else, right?

00:08:56.100 What's in the public's heads.

00:08:57.740 And he kind of nails it without actually saying it, which is, we all think we know.

00:09:03.380 We're not sure if you know what I know or if I know what you're thinking.

00:09:07.200 But I feel like we all know we're thinking the same thing.

00:09:10.540 So anyway, he hit every note you can hit in persuasion.

00:09:14.180 And it was funny as well.

00:09:17.080 Here's some good news.

00:09:18.200 I'm full of good news today.

00:09:21.500 One of my neighbors who couldn't finish college because of the coronavirus stuff is home with the family,

00:09:29.180 is doing some shopping because she's in that young, healthy, relatively healthy category. 0.80

00:09:35.180 And so she was nice enough to get me some groceries a few times so far.

00:09:41.120 And today she was at a store for other purposes and saw toilet paper for sale on the shelf.

00:09:51.920 Let me say that again.

00:09:55.220 My town had toilet paper on the shelf.

00:10:03.100 And I'm not talking about industrial toilet paper.

00:10:08.400 I'm not talking about stuff you wouldn't want to get near the tender bottom of your self.

00:10:15.080 I'm talking about the good stuff.

00:10:18.380 12-pack.

00:10:19.700 Charmin.

00:10:20.800 Yeah.

00:10:21.560 That's right.

00:10:22.760 Solid gold.

00:10:24.940 And so she said,

00:10:26.260 would you like me to, you know,

00:10:28.400 get some for you?

00:10:30.160 And I was texting.

00:10:31.620 I was like,

00:10:32.020 I couldn't type it fast enough.

00:10:34.080 Yes.

00:10:35.320 Yes.

00:10:36.200 Buy it.

00:10:36.980 Buy it.

00:10:38.960 And she said,

00:10:39.880 do you want one or two?

00:10:41.320 I was like,

00:10:42.260 one or two?

00:10:43.740 One or two?

00:10:45.400 I didn't even know that was an option.

00:10:49.440 And I started weeping.

00:10:52.040 While typing,

00:10:53.080 two,

00:10:53.580 two.

00:10:54.040 I think there might have been a limit.

00:10:55.700 Which,

00:10:56.220 by the way,

00:10:56.620 will be the secret

00:10:57.720 to getting everybody enough.

00:11:00.240 is if the big box stores,

00:11:02.960 when they do get new supply in,

00:11:04.440 and it looks like it's happening,

00:11:06.220 if they limit,

00:11:07.420 you know,

00:11:07.800 two per customer

00:11:08.640 or something like that.

00:11:09.460 So I think that's what's going to happen.

00:11:12.540 Now,

00:11:13.160 let's talk about predictions.

00:11:15.360 How many of you remember

00:11:16.540 when I predicted

00:11:17.460 when the toilet paper supply

00:11:19.800 would start to replenish?

00:11:23.040 I said it would be

00:11:24.140 about a month

00:11:25.300 from the first day

00:11:27.900 that your stores

00:11:29.100 got empty shelves.

00:11:31.260 And I did like

00:11:31.920 the back of an envelope calculation

00:11:33.660 to,

00:11:34.420 you know,

00:11:35.120 guesstimate

00:11:35.640 the average

00:11:37.260 of how much people hoarded.

00:11:39.120 But then you have to calculate in

00:11:40.780 that people are home more,

00:11:42.440 so they're using more stuff at home.

00:11:44.480 Then calculate in

00:11:45.420 that the businesses

00:11:46.780 probably were working double time

00:11:48.560 to produce more.

00:11:50.580 So calculating all that,

00:11:51.880 and I think I said

00:11:52.540 about a month

00:11:53.100 from the time

00:11:53.740 that your shelves

00:11:54.580 first emptied.

00:11:57.420 How close did I get?

00:11:59.480 In my town,

00:12:00.180 I think I nailed it.

00:12:02.160 Right?

00:12:03.320 I think,

00:12:04.360 well,

00:12:04.700 you don't know,

00:12:05.260 but about a month

00:12:06.320 from the last moment

00:12:08.220 that you could buy

00:12:09.020 these products in my town

00:12:10.460 is today,

00:12:12.160 I think.

00:12:13.120 It's just about a month.

00:12:15.440 So that was just

00:12:16.300 the back of the envelope calculation,

00:12:17.840 but it looks like

00:12:18.680 that's going to come through.

00:12:21.060 We have to wait

00:12:21.880 and see if,

00:12:23.320 let me know,

00:12:25.100 let me know

00:12:26.240 if any of you

00:12:28.140 have experienced that yet.

00:12:31.560 All right.

00:12:34.900 Let's see.

00:12:37.280 This,

00:12:37.960 you know,

00:12:38.480 one thing that this

00:12:39.380 coronavirus

00:12:40.020 situation has done,

00:12:42.140 and I think

00:12:43.480 after it's over,

00:12:44.760 there are going to be

00:12:45.220 all these

00:12:45.860 unintended benefits

00:12:47.500 that are really

00:12:49.060 going to rack up.

00:12:51.360 And one of the

00:12:52.100 interesting things

00:12:52.880 about it

00:12:53.220 is it created

00:12:54.220 this little

00:12:54.860 test lab

00:12:56.600 where there were

00:12:58.080 lots of

00:12:58.560 ambiguous situations

00:12:59.780 that people

00:13:02.160 in public

00:13:02.760 were competing,

00:13:03.940 in a sense,

00:13:05.380 people were competing

00:13:06.440 to have the best

00:13:08.300 take on it

00:13:09.220 and the most

00:13:09.660 accurate interpretations,

00:13:12.140 the best predictions.

00:13:14.160 And so

00:13:14.500 there are lots

00:13:15.540 of like elements

00:13:16.560 and,

00:13:17.060 you know,

00:13:17.320 parts of the story

00:13:18.260 of the coronavirus

00:13:18.940 pandemic,

00:13:20.360 but in each

00:13:21.780 of those little

00:13:22.320 sub-stories,

00:13:23.400 in each of those

00:13:23.940 little sub-plots,

00:13:25.980 there are people

00:13:26.920 like me,

00:13:27.700 you know,

00:13:27.940 people in public,

00:13:29.780 pundits and famous

00:13:30.560 people and politicians

00:13:31.540 and celebrities

00:13:32.300 making all kinds

00:13:33.580 of predictions

00:13:34.100 and statements

00:13:34.880 about them.

00:13:35.460 And so

00:13:36.620 in a very

00:13:37.360 condensed period,

00:13:39.120 like we've never

00:13:39.980 seen before,

00:13:41.380 we got to see

00:13:42.460 people's minds

00:13:44.960 at work

00:13:45.580 in public

00:13:46.300 and then we

00:13:47.840 fairly quickly

00:13:48.720 got to see

00:13:49.400 who was more

00:13:50.280 right than

00:13:50.860 other people.

00:13:53.380 Somebody says,

00:13:54.240 your polyps

00:13:54.740 sound bad to you.

00:13:55.460 You know,

00:13:55.680 you're right.

00:13:56.460 I can,

00:13:57.140 the last few days,

00:13:58.860 I can feel

00:13:59.560 that there's

00:13:59.960 some difference.

00:14:01.080 So you're right.

00:14:03.880 Anyway,

00:14:04.620 so

00:14:04.920 I think

00:14:05.940 one of the

00:14:06.240 good things

00:14:06.620 that comes

00:14:06.960 out of this

00:14:07.400 is you're

00:14:07.900 going to

00:14:08.120 find out

00:14:08.620 who's good

00:14:09.320 at this

00:14:09.800 stuff.

00:14:10.860 And I'm

00:14:11.300 going to

00:14:11.560 tell you

00:14:12.400 a little bit

00:14:12.840 more about

00:14:13.720 my predictions

00:14:14.840 so you can

00:14:15.720 see how

00:14:17.040 I stack up

00:14:17.980 with the

00:14:18.900 public predictions.

00:14:20.080 All right.

00:14:21.820 So there's

00:14:22.560 a prediction

00:14:23.000 from the

00:14:23.980 experts

00:14:24.480 that say

00:14:26.260 the U.S.

00:14:26.820 will reach

00:14:27.220 its peak

00:14:27.860 use of

00:14:28.340 resources

00:14:28.920 that most

00:14:29.800 will need

00:14:30.400 on

00:14:31.540 around

00:14:31.800 Saturday,

00:14:32.420 which is

00:14:33.840 pretty close,

00:14:35.080 right?

00:14:35.580 It's the

00:14:36.000 weekend.

00:14:37.260 And I

00:14:38.340 don't see

00:14:39.200 the task

00:14:39.920 force being

00:14:40.820 panicked.

00:14:42.360 It looks

00:14:43.260 like they

00:14:43.640 figured it

00:14:44.280 out.

00:14:44.760 Like we

00:14:45.580 found enough,

00:14:46.480 we moved

00:14:46.860 enough around,

00:14:48.100 we flattened

00:14:48.900 the curve

00:14:49.240 enough.

00:14:50.380 You know,

00:14:50.600 they were

00:14:51.240 pushing on it

00:14:51.860 from every

00:14:52.300 direction,

00:14:52.980 from finding

00:14:54.280 new ones,

00:14:55.000 to figuring

00:14:55.480 out how

00:14:57.360 to retrofit

00:14:58.720 things,

00:14:59.380 to quickly

00:15:00.160 building new

00:15:00.860 ways to

00:15:01.280 build them

00:15:01.760 and everything.

00:15:03.600 But it

00:15:03.960 looks,

00:15:04.440 it's beginning

00:15:04.920 to look

00:15:05.340 like we're

00:15:07.040 going to

00:15:07.380 get past

00:15:07.920 the peak

00:15:08.380 of it

00:15:08.840 without

00:15:10.400 the grotesque

00:15:12.380 shortages that

00:15:13.240 would kill

00:15:13.700 people from 0.99

00:15:14.540 their lack.

00:15:15.580 Now,

00:15:15.780 I just saw a

00:15:16.260 message just

00:15:16.800 before I got

00:15:17.300 on from

00:15:18.500 somebody who

00:15:18.900 said in a

00:15:19.900 particular

00:15:20.340 hospital that

00:15:21.820 they were

00:15:22.560 reusing

00:15:24.580 stuff,

00:15:25.480 and may

00:15:25.980 have caused

00:15:26.420 infections and

00:15:27.340 maybe somebody

00:15:28.060 actually could

00:15:30.240 have died from

00:15:30.860 that.

00:15:31.240 It's hard to

00:15:31.640 know exactly

00:15:32.380 what caused

00:15:33.580 what in

00:15:33.940 these situations.

00:15:35.460 But if you

00:15:36.340 were to look

00:15:36.620 at it overall,

00:15:39.040 you know,

00:15:39.460 there's no doubt

00:15:40.660 there were

00:15:40.980 individual bad

00:15:42.160 situations,

00:15:42.840 but if you

00:15:43.140 were to look

00:15:43.440 at it overall,

00:15:45.160 it kind of

00:15:45.760 looks like

00:15:46.400 we got it

00:15:48.900 done.

00:15:50.320 I mean,

00:15:50.640 it's still

00:15:50.920 too early,

00:15:52.300 but it

00:15:53.000 started to

00:15:53.560 look like

00:15:54.240 team

00:15:55.900 humans

00:15:56.560 and team

00:15:58.240 America

00:15:58.720 specifically,

00:16:00.040 it's kind

00:16:00.860 of starting

00:16:01.260 to look

00:16:01.640 like we

00:16:02.000 got it

00:16:02.360 done,

00:16:03.180 which would

00:16:04.020 be

00:16:04.440 spectacular.

00:16:07.380 Now,

00:16:07.680 of course,

00:16:07.920 the skeptics

00:16:08.420 will say it

00:16:08.980 was all a

00:16:09.340 big hoax and

00:16:09.900 there was

00:16:10.100 nothing to

00:16:10.540 do,

00:16:11.260 so the

00:16:11.600 reason that

00:16:12.020 you did

00:16:12.340 so well is

00:16:12.940 that there

00:16:13.180 was no

00:16:13.460 problem in

00:16:13.940 the first

00:16:14.220 place,

00:16:14.740 and we'll

00:16:15.420 never be

00:16:15.840 able to

00:16:16.100 solve

00:16:16.360 those two

00:16:17.580 different

00:16:17.860 movies that

00:16:18.400 will play

00:16:19.040 forever.

00:16:19.400 But here's

00:16:22.220 the way

00:16:23.480 I'd put

00:16:23.900 it.

00:16:25.900 Can it

00:16:26.520 be said,

00:16:28.000 let's say

00:16:28.460 things go

00:16:29.060 the way

00:16:29.640 the optimist

00:16:31.220 would like

00:16:31.620 them to

00:16:31.920 go.

00:16:32.180 We get

00:16:32.560 through

00:16:32.740 Saturday

00:16:33.200 and we

00:16:34.080 don't run

00:16:34.540 out,

00:16:35.660 and then

00:16:36.160 even though

00:16:36.640 the problem

00:16:37.100 is going

00:16:37.720 to continue

00:16:38.160 for weeks,

00:16:39.560 we get on

00:16:40.460 top of the

00:16:40.960 supply problem

00:16:41.760 and we

00:16:42.340 basically,

00:16:43.920 give or take

00:16:44.580 a few special

00:16:45.400 cases,

00:16:46.040 basically we

00:16:46.680 just don't

00:16:47.200 run out of

00:16:47.760 stuff from

00:16:48.740 this point

00:16:49.200 on.

00:16:50.700 Could it

00:16:51.280 be said,

00:16:52.360 if you think

00:16:53.980 about yourself

00:16:54.500 in the future

00:16:55.120 and you're

00:16:55.500 looking back

00:16:56.040 at it,

00:16:56.800 you're a

00:16:57.280 historian,

00:16:58.500 could it

00:16:59.260 be said

00:16:59.620 that we

00:16:59.960 were unprepared?

00:17:02.100 Now your

00:17:02.480 first thought

00:17:03.020 is,

00:17:03.720 hell yes,

00:17:04.500 we were

00:17:04.780 unprepared,

00:17:05.780 because we

00:17:06.700 had to

00:17:07.040 scramble so

00:17:07.720 hard to get

00:17:08.240 all these

00:17:08.620 things.

00:17:10.760 But let

00:17:11.100 me just

00:17:12.140 put this

00:17:12.720 thought in

00:17:13.140 your head.

00:17:14.540 That would

00:17:15.020 make sense

00:17:15.720 if you had

00:17:16.380 only one

00:17:17.380 big

00:17:17.740 problem.

00:17:19.100 If you

00:17:19.620 had one

00:17:20.100 big risk,

00:17:21.680 you should

00:17:22.760 be really

00:17:23.220 prepared

00:17:23.780 specifically,

00:17:25.840 and in

00:17:26.440 the most

00:17:26.760 maximum

00:17:27.200 way,

00:17:28.220 for that

00:17:28.700 one risk.

00:17:29.920 But what

00:17:30.480 if you

00:17:30.780 live in

00:17:31.100 a world

00:17:31.580 in which

00:17:32.760 you have

00:17:33.220 untold

00:17:34.400 potential

00:17:35.100 risks?

00:17:36.140 Everything

00:17:36.480 from

00:17:37.180 pandemics

00:17:38.540 to

00:17:38.800 asteroids

00:17:39.380 to

00:17:40.140 unexpected

00:17:42.580 wars

00:17:43.180 to

00:17:43.720 EMF

00:17:44.880 bombs

00:17:45.700 to

00:17:46.240 who

00:17:47.920 knows

00:17:48.160 what,

00:17:49.760 revolutions,

00:17:51.820 mass

00:17:52.440 psychosis,

00:17:54.340 global

00:17:55.580 warming,

00:17:56.880 pick your

00:17:58.420 emergency.

00:17:59.620 I would

00:18:00.140 contend

00:18:00.680 that what

00:18:02.160 it means

00:18:02.700 to be

00:18:03.100 prepared

00:18:03.800 in a

00:18:05.340 world of

00:18:05.960 tremendous

00:18:06.820 uncertainty

00:18:07.460 and a

00:18:08.780 variety of

00:18:09.520 dangers to

00:18:10.640 which you

00:18:11.080 could not

00:18:11.460 possibly prepare

00:18:12.520 for all

00:18:13.020 of them,

00:18:14.340 that what

00:18:14.860 it means

00:18:15.280 to be

00:18:15.620 prepared

00:18:16.060 is to

00:18:17.120 have

00:18:17.280 systems

00:18:17.900 in place

00:18:18.580 that are

00:18:19.580 very

00:18:19.860 flexible

00:18:20.460 and adaptable

00:18:21.380 and when

00:18:22.460 a new

00:18:22.800 threat comes

00:18:23.440 in,

00:18:23.760 which is

00:18:24.080 always going

00:18:24.440 to be

00:18:24.620 different

00:18:24.940 from the

00:18:25.340 last one,

00:18:26.340 your next

00:18:27.220 threat is

00:18:27.860 never quite

00:18:28.480 like the

00:18:28.880 last one,

00:18:29.800 this virus

00:18:30.540 isn't like

00:18:31.420 the other

00:18:31.720 ones exactly.

00:18:33.340 So being

00:18:34.540 prepared in

00:18:35.160 the future

00:18:35.620 might not

00:18:37.120 be a case

00:18:37.920 of being

00:18:38.280 prepared like

00:18:39.080 a goal,

00:18:40.180 like my

00:18:40.640 goal is to

00:18:41.380 be prepared

00:18:41.920 for this

00:18:42.380 thing,

00:18:43.380 because what

00:18:43.900 if there

00:18:44.180 are so

00:18:44.480 many things

00:18:45.100 and some

00:18:45.520 of them

00:18:45.740 you can't

00:18:46.140 even imagine,

00:18:47.380 you can't

00:18:47.900 even think

00:18:48.440 up the

00:18:49.380 trouble that's

00:18:49.960 coming toward

00:18:50.460 you,

00:18:50.660 it's just

00:18:50.940 something you

00:18:51.400 never saw

00:18:51.780 before.

00:18:52.860 In that

00:18:53.520 case,

00:18:54.000 and I think

00:18:54.420 that does

00:18:54.860 describe the

00:18:55.560 future,

00:18:56.680 in that

00:18:57.040 case,

00:18:57.860 isn't your

00:18:58.300 best form

00:18:59.240 of preparation

00:18:59.960 tremendous

00:19:01.420 ability to

00:19:02.260 communicate,

00:19:03.860 incredible

00:19:04.660 colleges and

00:19:05.820 education system

00:19:06.860 to produce

00:19:07.840 the kinds of

00:19:08.440 scientists and

00:19:09.480 researchers and

00:19:11.620 doctors that

00:19:12.700 you need for

00:19:13.860 a variety of

00:19:14.500 situations,

00:19:15.540 we have

00:19:16.300 these systems

00:19:17.360 for governing

00:19:18.140 that apparently

00:19:19.460 were up to

00:19:21.140 the task in

00:19:21.980 terms of the

00:19:22.480 fact that we

00:19:23.800 knew who was

00:19:24.380 in charge,

00:19:25.080 okay,

00:19:25.480 Mr.

00:19:25.800 President,

00:19:26.780 he immediately

00:19:27.560 used his

00:19:28.860 powers to

00:19:29.400 create a

00:19:29.840 team,

00:19:31.080 that team

00:19:31.700 used the

00:19:32.280 powers of

00:19:33.140 emergency and

00:19:34.560 the influence

00:19:36.660 of the

00:19:36.900 president's

00:19:37.360 office and

00:19:37.820 all that,

00:19:38.260 the military,

00:19:38.820 everything,

00:19:39.920 all of

00:19:40.400 these systems,

00:19:41.680 it's like

00:19:42.080 systems on

00:19:42.860 top of

00:19:43.300 systems on

00:19:43.960 top of

00:19:44.360 systems,

00:19:45.220 and how

00:19:45.820 did they

00:19:46.040 do?

00:19:47.160 Well,

00:19:47.720 our biggest

00:19:48.120 problem is

00:19:48.800 that we're

00:19:49.160 sort of

00:19:49.560 ossified with

00:19:50.460 all these

00:19:50.820 regulations and

00:19:52.020 red tape.

00:19:54.200 If our

00:19:54.960 system could

00:19:55.920 not immediately

00:19:56.660 self-correct and

00:19:58.560 cut through the

00:19:59.400 red tape when

00:20:00.360 an emergency

00:20:00.940 required,

00:20:02.140 then I would

00:20:02.560 say you're

00:20:02.860 not prepared.

00:20:03.480 But what

00:20:05.080 if your

00:20:05.400 system is

00:20:06.220 so flexible

00:20:06.960 that the

00:20:08.220 moment there's

00:20:08.900 a need,

00:20:09.560 oh,

00:20:09.760 we've got to

00:20:10.060 get rid of

00:20:10.400 all these

00:20:10.700 regulations.

00:20:11.600 They made

00:20:11.940 sense before.

00:20:13.900 In a

00:20:14.380 luxury time,

00:20:15.220 they made

00:20:15.480 sense.

00:20:16.020 But right

00:20:16.260 now,

00:20:16.460 we've just

00:20:16.680 got to

00:20:16.880 get rid

00:20:17.140 of them.

00:20:17.840 If you

00:20:18.180 could just

00:20:18.500 slice through 0.96

00:20:19.080 them,

00:20:20.340 which I

00:20:20.740 think is

00:20:21.540 what the

00:20:21.840 administration

00:20:22.220 did.

00:20:23.280 It looked

00:20:23.680 to me like

00:20:24.180 the

00:20:24.340 administration

00:20:24.880 just sliced

00:20:26.560 through

00:20:27.000 regulations

00:20:27.860 everywhere they

00:20:28.840 saw them,

00:20:29.460 like a

00:20:30.340 samurai.

00:20:30.720 So were

00:20:34.640 we prepared

00:20:35.580 to get

00:20:37.840 rid of

00:20:38.160 regulations?

00:20:38.920 Yes.

00:20:39.460 Yes.

00:20:39.760 We had a

00:20:40.200 system in

00:20:40.680 place that

00:20:41.800 quite efficiently

00:20:42.660 identified and

00:20:44.520 then removed

00:20:45.260 obstacles.

00:20:47.220 We also had

00:20:48.080 the Internet.

00:20:49.220 I would say

00:20:50.040 that the

00:20:51.020 contribution of

00:20:52.860 just individuals

00:20:54.420 as they

00:20:55.540 communicated on

00:20:56.980 the Internet

00:20:57.340 and even

00:20:58.640 the leadership

00:20:59.260 that was

00:20:59.760 shown,

00:21:00.720 on the

00:21:00.920 Internet.

00:21:01.400 I'm

00:21:01.500 talking about

00:21:01.880 the Mark

00:21:02.720 Cubans,

00:21:03.440 etc.

00:21:04.160 The people

00:21:04.760 who just

00:21:05.140 stepped up

00:21:06.920 and added

00:21:08.220 something useful.

00:21:09.860 There were a

00:21:10.180 lot of ideas

00:21:10.940 and connections

00:21:12.420 and buyers

00:21:14.020 and sellers

00:21:14.600 finding each

00:21:15.300 other and

00:21:16.000 ideas that

00:21:17.420 needed to be

00:21:18.120 fleshed out

00:21:18.720 with more

00:21:19.100 people.

00:21:20.180 The Internet

00:21:20.760 is this

00:21:23.240 amazing system

00:21:24.080 and in my

00:21:26.520 opinion,

00:21:27.260 specifically

00:21:27.800 Twitter.

00:21:28.300 I'm a

00:21:31.180 little biased

00:21:31.680 but I

00:21:31.980 think Twitter

00:21:32.480 is sort

00:21:32.900 of the

00:21:33.140 brain of

00:21:34.520 civilization

00:21:35.200 and because

00:21:36.480 it exists,

00:21:38.240 all the

00:21:38.720 best ideas

00:21:39.540 could sort

00:21:40.460 of find the

00:21:41.040 right place

00:21:41.540 and get

00:21:41.840 filtered in

00:21:43.060 a way that

00:21:43.500 we could

00:21:43.860 have never

00:21:44.180 done before

00:21:44.800 prior to

00:21:45.920 Twitter.

00:21:47.220 So if you

00:21:48.060 look at

00:21:48.300 everything from

00:21:48.820 our political

00:21:49.420 systems,

00:21:50.400 even our

00:21:50.880 financial

00:21:51.360 systems,

00:21:51.960 the fact

00:21:53.020 that we

00:21:53.260 have such

00:21:53.680 a mature

00:21:54.460 banking

00:21:55.400 system and

00:21:56.420 that Mnuchin

00:21:58.980 could go in

00:21:59.560 there and

00:22:00.340 he had a

00:22:00.680 full toolbox.

00:22:03.080 Mnuchin had

00:22:03.880 a full

00:22:04.360 toolbox.

00:22:05.720 What tool

00:22:06.460 did Mnuchin

00:22:08.000 want to use

00:22:08.820 that was not

00:22:09.400 available to

00:22:10.220 him?

00:22:10.600 None,

00:22:11.040 right?

00:22:12.460 Maybe you

00:22:13.140 can think of

00:22:13.600 one but I

00:22:14.120 can't.

00:22:14.960 Because the

00:22:15.540 economy of the

00:22:17.220 United States

00:22:17.820 was robust,

00:22:20.540 Mnuchin goes

00:22:21.280 in there and

00:22:21.700 says,

00:22:21.960 all right,

00:22:22.200 it's an

00:22:22.400 emergency,

00:22:22.960 I've got to

00:22:23.300 push the

00:22:24.060 buttons for

00:22:24.580 emergencies and

00:22:26.180 all the buttons

00:22:26.740 are there.

00:22:27.860 They're all

00:22:28.240 there.

00:22:29.020 Because we

00:22:29.740 were already

00:22:30.520 in the

00:22:30.820 depression because

00:22:32.140 we had good

00:22:32.720 systems.

00:22:34.360 So I

00:22:37.360 would say

00:22:37.960 that we're

00:22:39.040 probably,

00:22:40.120 you know,

00:22:40.320 it's human

00:22:41.000 nature that

00:22:41.680 you beat

00:22:42.540 yourself up

00:22:43.200 for your

00:22:43.460 mistakes and

00:22:44.360 you don't

00:22:44.660 give yourself

00:22:45.140 enough credit

00:22:47.220 for the

00:22:48.200 things you do

00:22:48.700 well.

00:22:49.820 But I

00:22:50.500 think where

00:22:51.180 we're heading

00:22:51.680 with this,

00:22:52.660 if we do

00:22:53.280 get past

00:22:53.900 the peak

00:22:54.420 without running

00:22:55.060 out of

00:22:55.340 stuff,

00:22:55.940 I'm optimistic

00:22:57.160 now,

00:22:58.540 I think we

00:22:59.300 really have to

00:22:59.980 pat ourselves

00:23:00.520 on the back.

00:23:01.940 And I'm

00:23:02.220 talking about

00:23:02.760 humanity in

00:23:03.580 general.

00:23:04.860 Because there

00:23:06.140 are a whole

00:23:07.140 bunch of

00:23:07.900 systems that

00:23:09.980 really delivered,

00:23:11.700 that they

00:23:12.160 adapted,

00:23:12.880 the systems

00:23:13.600 themselves were

00:23:14.320 almost like

00:23:14.820 living creatures

00:23:15.660 because none

00:23:16.780 of the systems

00:23:17.500 were on

00:23:18.860 day one

00:23:19.360 adapted to

00:23:20.180 the task.

00:23:21.900 But,

00:23:22.340 you know,

00:23:22.740 let's just

00:23:23.280 take one

00:23:23.620 example.

00:23:24.200 Twitter is

00:23:25.020 not adapted

00:23:26.300 to the

00:23:26.760 task on

00:23:27.420 day one,

00:23:28.800 but it

00:23:29.120 takes 10

00:23:29.620 seconds for

00:23:30.200 a hashtag

00:23:30.680 to appear

00:23:31.320 and suddenly

00:23:32.340 Twitter is

00:23:33.100 morphing into

00:23:34.020 exactly the

00:23:35.300 tool for

00:23:37.020 this disease.

00:23:38.400 It's almost

00:23:38.920 like you

00:23:39.360 could think

00:23:39.760 of creating

00:23:40.320 a hashtag

00:23:40.960 in Twitter

00:23:41.620 as almost

00:23:42.920 like an

00:23:43.800 antibody or

00:23:45.000 a white

00:23:45.340 blood cell.

00:23:46.260 because let's

00:23:47.560 say the

00:23:47.980 body human

00:23:49.000 is attacked.

00:23:50.940 So something

00:23:51.680 about humanity

00:23:52.380 is attacked,

00:23:53.120 whether it's

00:23:53.480 a pandemic

00:23:53.920 or something

00:23:54.460 else.

00:23:55.180 What's the

00:23:55.840 first thing

00:23:56.240 we do?

00:23:58.220 When humanity

00:23:59.460 is attacked,

00:24:00.180 the first thing

00:24:00.640 we do is

00:24:01.020 somebody makes

00:24:01.620 a hashtag,

00:24:03.160 right?

00:24:04.000 The hashtag

00:24:04.780 then attracts

00:24:06.360 all the

00:24:07.900 attention and

00:24:08.860 the trends and

00:24:09.580 then people

00:24:09.980 know where to

00:24:10.480 go and then

00:24:11.080 it connects

00:24:11.640 everybody and

00:24:12.840 then all of

00:24:13.360 the resources

00:24:13.980 of the world,

00:24:14.860 all the

00:24:15.100 different systems

00:24:16.020 start spinning

00:24:17.300 up because

00:24:18.800 of this little

00:24:19.260 hashtag.

00:24:20.520 So this

00:24:21.000 hashtag is

00:24:21.800 like the

00:24:22.380 antibodies that

00:24:23.380 get formed

00:24:24.460 on Twitter.

00:24:25.300 They start

00:24:25.900 spreading on

00:24:26.500 Twitter which

00:24:27.600 connects all

00:24:28.240 the systems

00:24:28.860 and pushes

00:24:30.340 them into

00:24:30.940 operation and

00:24:31.760 then people

00:24:32.140 can find

00:24:32.600 each other

00:24:33.000 and make

00:24:33.280 connections.

00:24:34.280 They know

00:24:34.540 what's important

00:24:35.040 and what's

00:24:35.380 not.

00:24:36.240 Imagine if

00:24:36.880 you had to

00:24:37.320 depend on

00:24:38.840 just the

00:24:39.260 news.

00:24:41.060 Imagine this

00:24:41.980 pandemic came

00:24:43.000 and there was

00:24:43.340 no social

00:24:43.900 media and

00:24:44.980 you just

00:24:45.320 had to

00:24:45.620 depend on

00:24:46.020 the news.

00:24:47.560 That's scary

00:24:48.420 isn't it?

00:24:49.460 That's really

00:24:49.920 scary.

00:24:50.880 So the

00:24:51.360 thing that's

00:24:51.980 sort of

00:24:52.260 invisible to

00:24:52.960 you is the

00:24:53.460 stuff that

00:24:53.980 happens

00:24:54.780 gradually and

00:24:56.120 what's

00:24:56.360 happened

00:24:56.620 gradually is

00:24:57.440 most of

00:24:58.760 us have

00:24:59.140 sort of

00:24:59.560 grown up

00:25:00.620 with this

00:25:01.000 evolving

00:25:01.620 internet

00:25:02.140 world so

00:25:03.880 you lose

00:25:04.860 track of

00:25:05.920 how different

00:25:06.860 it is

00:25:07.500 from any

00:25:09.560 time before

00:25:10.140 that.

00:25:10.540 And one

00:25:10.740 of the

00:25:10.920 differences

00:25:11.220 is it's

00:25:12.200 almost alive.

00:25:13.900 As soon

00:25:14.520 as the

00:25:15.780 problem was

00:25:16.460 identified it

00:25:17.360 turned into a

00:25:17.980 hashtag it

00:25:19.220 reformed Twitter

00:25:20.500 in real time

00:25:21.860 and created

00:25:23.360 like this

00:25:23.860 little brain

00:25:25.200 of society

00:25:25.980 that was

00:25:26.640 focused on

00:25:27.260 this one

00:25:27.660 problem.

00:25:28.540 Then all the

00:25:29.060 systems were

00:25:29.660 activated and

00:25:30.740 each of them

00:25:31.260 morphed into

00:25:32.000 a new

00:25:32.820 system.

00:25:34.100 Every system

00:25:34.980 think about

00:25:36.120 it.

00:25:36.580 Every system

00:25:37.460 in the

00:25:37.780 world

00:25:38.160 probably

00:25:39.420 just morphed

00:25:41.940 into a

00:25:42.300 new system

00:25:42.920 in just

00:25:44.060 days

00:25:44.460 while we

00:25:45.900 watched

00:25:46.160 because we

00:25:46.740 needed it.

00:25:48.120 Most

00:25:48.600 incredible

00:25:49.420 thing you've

00:25:49.980 ever seen

00:25:50.360 in your

00:25:50.580 life.

00:25:50.960 I hope

00:25:51.220 that we

00:25:51.980 all remember

00:25:52.640 it in

00:25:54.640 the way

00:25:55.500 that we

00:25:56.720 should.

00:25:57.000 Let me

00:25:59.660 give you

00:26:00.040 some of

00:26:01.840 my most

00:26:02.560 unlikely

00:26:03.100 predictions.

00:26:04.660 You've

00:26:04.960 heard these

00:26:05.280 before but

00:26:05.900 if there's

00:26:06.260 anybody new

00:26:06.820 it's always

00:26:07.460 good context.

00:26:08.880 So I've

00:26:10.420 been saying

00:26:10.760 for years

00:26:11.220 that you

00:26:11.560 should make

00:26:11.900 predictions in

00:26:12.580 public and

00:26:13.980 then you

00:26:14.800 can see if

00:26:15.240 you're good

00:26:15.500 at it because

00:26:16.480 people will

00:26:17.000 remind you if

00:26:17.700 you missed

00:26:18.080 it and if

00:26:19.280 you do you

00:26:20.060 should tell

00:26:20.420 people you

00:26:20.780 got it right.

00:26:21.680 So here are

00:26:21.980 my most

00:26:22.480 unlikely

00:26:23.100 predictions.

00:26:23.820 Of course

00:26:24.240 I famously

00:26:26.320 predicted that

00:26:26.980 Trump would

00:26:27.400 win in

00:26:28.400 2015 so

00:26:29.860 that sort

00:26:31.200 of put me

00:26:31.600 on the map

00:26:32.140 for predicting

00:26:32.760 stuff but

00:26:33.960 here are some

00:26:34.360 of the really

00:26:34.900 weird ones I

00:26:35.620 predicted.

00:26:36.920 When we

00:26:37.560 didn't know

00:26:38.000 who the

00:26:38.360 Vegas shooter

00:26:39.000 was and

00:26:40.780 people were

00:26:41.220 saying it

00:26:41.560 was probably

00:26:41.940 ISIS I

00:26:42.960 said it was

00:26:43.460 not but

00:26:44.080 that's not

00:26:44.480 the fun

00:26:45.780 part.

00:26:46.800 The fun

00:26:47.200 part is that

00:26:47.800 when ISIS

00:26:48.260 took credit

00:26:49.160 for it I

00:26:50.960 still publicly

00:26:51.780 said nope

00:26:53.140 and then people

00:26:54.480 reminded me

00:26:55.300 you know ISIS

00:26:56.540 doesn't take

00:26:57.440 credit for

00:26:57.940 things that

00:26:58.580 they didn't

00:26:59.040 do.

00:26:59.860 I think there

00:27:00.720 was one

00:27:01.040 example where

00:27:01.680 they might

00:27:02.040 have but

00:27:02.780 basically once

00:27:04.840 they take

00:27:05.340 credit for

00:27:05.940 it it's

00:27:07.820 ISIS but

00:27:09.980 I held

00:27:10.760 tight and

00:27:11.960 of course

00:27:12.280 it was not

00:27:12.700 ISIS so

00:27:14.040 that was

00:27:15.680 one for

00:27:17.460 me.

00:27:18.140 When the

00:27:18.540 Cuban

00:27:19.820 embassy

00:27:20.280 allegedly had

00:27:21.580 a secret

00:27:22.120 sonic weapon

00:27:22.940 and all the

00:27:24.160 experts and

00:27:24.800 all the news

00:27:25.340 was reporting

00:27:25.980 it was a

00:27:26.460 secret sonic

00:27:27.160 weapon and

00:27:28.260 I said

00:27:28.760 never going

00:27:30.240 to find that

00:27:30.720 secret sonic

00:27:31.360 weapon that

00:27:31.880 doesn't exist.

00:27:32.620 have we

00:27:33.880 found the

00:27:34.520 secret sonic

00:27:35.240 weapon that

00:27:36.700 doesn't exist?

00:27:37.680 We have

00:27:38.320 not and I

00:27:39.280 think that at

00:27:40.000 this point the

00:27:40.640 experts probably

00:27:41.960 agree that it's

00:27:43.420 not any kind of

00:27:44.100 a weapon

00:27:44.500 whatever it

00:27:45.060 was.

00:27:48.620 And of

00:27:49.360 course you

00:27:49.860 know I was

00:27:50.580 one of the

00:27:51.000 first to say

00:27:51.580 stop the

00:27:52.020 flights from

00:27:52.420 China.

00:27:53.360 I was one

00:27:53.800 of the first

00:27:54.200 public people

00:27:54.820 to say of

00:27:55.640 course masks

00:27:56.340 work.

00:27:57.780 How could

00:27:58.200 masks not

00:27:59.120 work?

00:27:59.500 It doesn't

00:27:59.760 make any

00:28:00.120 sense.

00:28:00.380 Now a

00:28:01.660 lot of

00:28:01.900 people

00:28:02.100 realized it

00:28:02.980 but you

00:28:04.260 know there

00:28:04.600 was sort

00:28:05.160 of a funny

00:28:05.620 thing happening

00:28:06.220 when it

00:28:07.440 first came

00:28:08.080 out that

00:28:08.700 the experts

00:28:09.400 you know

00:28:11.060 Surgeon General

00:28:11.800 and the

00:28:12.620 World Health

00:28:13.020 Organization

00:28:13.600 CDC and

00:28:14.480 everybody

00:28:14.720 when they

00:28:15.460 were all

00:28:15.760 telling us

00:28:16.220 that masks

00:28:16.820 wouldn't

00:28:17.180 help.

00:28:18.220 I feel

00:28:19.060 like there

00:28:20.040 was this

00:28:20.400 phenomena that

00:28:21.120 happened all

00:28:22.180 over the

00:28:22.560 place which

00:28:23.900 is that a

00:28:24.500 whole bunch

00:28:24.920 of smart

00:28:25.440 people said

00:28:26.060 to themselves

00:28:26.640 but not

00:28:28.300 out loud as

00:28:29.260 soon as they

00:28:29.620 heard this they

00:28:30.180 thought to

00:28:30.500 themselves

00:28:30.900 is that

00:28:32.360 right?

00:28:33.340 Is that

00:28:33.960 right?

00:28:34.320 Because that

00:28:35.520 doesn't feel

00:28:36.200 right.

00:28:37.320 Like how

00:28:37.820 could it not

00:28:39.220 help at least

00:28:40.300 a little bit?

00:28:41.520 And they

00:28:41.740 would make 0.98

00:28:42.100 their silly 0.96

00:28:42.640 arguments about 0.92

00:28:43.440 touching your

00:28:43.920 face and you'd

00:28:44.640 be like yeah

00:28:45.760 but that

00:28:46.260 doesn't feel

00:28:47.500 right.

00:28:48.460 But I don't

00:28:49.020 think anybody

00:28:49.580 wanted to say

00:28:50.180 it out loud

00:28:50.820 because literally

00:28:52.500 every expert

00:28:53.380 just said no

00:28:55.120 don't do it

00:28:56.460 they don't

00:28:56.780 help.

00:28:58.060 So what are

00:28:58.500 you going to

00:28:58.760 do?

00:28:58.960 Are you going

00:28:59.260 to go in

00:28:59.640 public and

00:29:01.260 say out

00:29:01.720 loud in

00:29:02.160 public I

00:29:03.540 disagree with

00:29:04.420 every scientist

00:29:05.620 and expert

00:29:06.360 who's weighed

00:29:06.900 in based on

00:29:08.380 my skill as

00:29:09.220 a cartoonist?

00:29:10.900 Is anybody 1.00

00:29:11.760 dumb enough to 1.00

00:29:12.520 do that? 1.00

00:29:14.020 Well yeah I

00:29:14.500 did that.

00:29:15.500 That's exactly

00:29:16.080 what I did.

00:29:17.120 I bucked

00:29:17.740 every expert

00:29:18.600 and scientist

00:29:19.200 in the world

00:29:19.780 who all of

00:29:20.700 them know

00:29:21.160 far more

00:29:21.700 than I do

00:29:22.180 because it

00:29:22.880 was obvious

00:29:23.300 that they

00:29:23.680 were just

00:29:23.920 wrong.

00:29:24.200 so you'll

00:29:26.140 count that

00:29:26.600 on my

00:29:27.020 list.

00:29:29.980 I think

00:29:30.580 by the way

00:29:31.020 I made it

00:29:31.520 easier for

00:29:32.200 other people

00:29:32.680 to say it

00:29:33.240 in public

00:29:33.900 because you

00:29:35.020 know when

00:29:35.220 the first 1.00

00:29:35.620 idiot goes 1.00

00:29:36.780 and doesn't 1.00

00:29:37.620 get killed 0.81

00:29:38.100 you go 1.00

00:29:38.820 oh well

00:29:39.460 the first 1.00

00:29:39.900 idiot didn't 1.00

00:29:40.460 get killed 1.00

00:29:40.880 maybe I 1.00

00:29:41.280 can go

00:29:41.560 too.

00:29:44.560 And so

00:29:45.560 here's where

00:29:45.960 I'm heading

00:29:46.280 on this.

00:29:46.680 oh and I

00:29:49.900 also predicted

00:29:50.540 that splitting

00:29:51.380 ventilators

00:29:52.060 would be a

00:29:52.560 thing and

00:29:53.680 as of today

00:29:54.460 the Surgeon

00:29:55.000 General just

00:29:56.440 put out some

00:29:57.020 guidance that

00:29:57.700 said it's

00:29:58.640 a last resort

00:29:59.740 but it's an

00:30:01.460 approved last

00:30:02.540 resort which

00:30:03.380 makes sense

00:30:04.240 right?

00:30:04.580 If you had

00:30:04.980 any other way

00:30:05.480 to do it

00:30:05.820 you wouldn't

00:30:06.080 do it that

00:30:06.400 way.

00:30:09.240 And then

00:30:09.840 here's another

00:30:10.320 one.

00:30:11.580 So my

00:30:12.400 public estimate

00:30:13.420 for the final

00:30:14.280 death toll

00:30:14.980 will probably

00:30:17.200 be well

00:30:18.180 off of the

00:30:18.700 actual number

00:30:19.360 but maybe

00:30:21.160 the closest

00:30:21.740 one in the

00:30:22.360 country.

00:30:23.500 So I might

00:30:24.300 have the

00:30:24.660 closest estimate

00:30:25.880 while still

00:30:26.560 being off a

00:30:27.460 bit.

00:30:28.180 So mine

00:30:28.540 was under

00:30:29.060 5,000 net

00:30:30.480 meaning after

00:30:31.520 you saved

00:30:32.300 people who

00:30:33.460 didn't get in

00:30:34.020 car accidents

00:30:34.660 for two

00:30:35.600 months count

00:30:36.660 them in

00:30:37.120 etc.

00:30:37.620 Counting

00:30:38.020 everything in

00:30:38.620 that would

00:30:38.980 be closer

00:30:39.560 to 5,000

00:30:40.540 that we

00:30:40.880 would do

00:30:41.160 such a good

00:30:41.680 job.

00:30:42.780 It looks

00:30:43.080 like the

00:30:43.660 official

00:30:45.300 estimates

00:30:45.720 are 60,000

00:30:46.960 as of

00:30:47.500 today

00:30:47.900 but that's

00:30:49.700 gross.

00:30:50.980 So if you

00:30:51.420 just netted

00:30:52.180 out the

00:30:52.560 ones that

00:30:52.880 were saved

00:30:53.400 it's probably

00:30:54.440 going to be

00:30:54.740 half of that.

00:30:56.020 So somewhere

00:30:56.440 in the

00:30:56.760 neighborhood

00:30:57.040 of 30,000

00:30:58.040 would be

00:30:58.560 effectively

00:31:00.180 the predicted

00:31:01.100 net.

00:31:02.440 My guess

00:31:03.160 was 5,000.

00:31:04.600 I think

00:31:04.980 the 30,000

00:31:05.720 is probably

00:31:06.120 going to

00:31:06.400 come down

00:31:06.820 a little

00:31:07.100 bit.

00:31:08.420 So if

00:31:09.980 the experts

00:31:10.560 were saying

00:31:11.000 100,000 or

00:31:11.640 200,000

00:31:12.480 and maybe

00:31:13.060 a million

00:31:13.560 and I

00:31:14.620 said 5,000

00:31:15.560 and it

00:31:16.000 comes down

00:31:16.460 to net

00:31:17.940 15,000

00:31:18.960 or something

00:31:19.420 I'm going

00:31:21.060 to say

00:31:21.340 I had the

00:31:21.780 best prediction.

00:31:22.920 We'll see.

00:31:24.760 But here's

00:31:25.540 the weirdest

00:31:25.980 one.

00:31:27.560 Let me

00:31:28.160 do a little

00:31:28.960 fact checking

00:31:30.100 with you

00:31:30.540 because you

00:31:31.400 know how

00:31:31.640 it's easy

00:31:32.040 to have

00:31:33.240 selective

00:31:33.700 memory.

00:31:35.900 It's really

00:31:36.540 easy to have

00:31:36.980 selective

00:31:37.380 memory and

00:31:37.960 imagine that

00:31:38.940 you predicted

00:31:39.480 things you

00:31:39.980 didn't predict.

00:31:40.940 So I need

00:31:41.300 your help

00:31:41.760 on this.

00:31:42.480 who in

00:31:45.480 the public

00:31:46.120 who talks

00:31:46.880 about politics

00:31:47.620 what public

00:31:48.980 person said

00:31:49.820 before I

00:31:50.500 did that

00:31:52.140 Biden was

00:31:52.960 mentally 0.99

00:31:54.000 incapable.

00:31:57.340 Do you

00:31:58.180 remember

00:31:58.520 anybody saying

00:31:59.460 it in

00:31:59.820 public like

00:32:01.500 actually saying

00:32:02.360 oh I'm

00:32:04.000 watching this

00:32:04.620 and it looks

00:32:05.000 like his 0.79

00:32:05.380 brain is not

00:32:06.100 functioning.

00:32:07.740 Did anybody

00:32:08.400 say that

00:32:09.000 that you

00:32:09.380 heard that

00:32:10.700 you heard

00:32:11.140 before I

00:32:12.560 did?

00:32:14.540 Somebody says

00:32:15.140 everyone.

00:32:15.800 Well everyone

00:32:16.580 has said it

00:32:19.360 since.

00:32:21.380 Yeah everyone

00:32:22.280 said it since

00:32:23.120 but I might

00:32:23.980 have been the

00:32:24.380 first one to

00:32:24.920 say it publicly.

00:32:26.340 Maybe Mike

00:32:26.940 Cernovich.

00:32:27.480 Yeah I

00:32:31.120 mean so I'm

00:32:32.400 not going to

00:32:32.820 claim that I

00:32:33.580 said that

00:32:33.940 first but I

00:32:34.600 was among

00:32:35.020 the first

00:32:35.600 and wouldn't

00:32:37.820 you say

00:32:38.320 that a year

00:32:40.100 ago it

00:32:40.720 wasn't as

00:32:41.240 obvious but

00:32:42.200 now everybody

00:32:42.820 can see it.

00:32:44.320 So I would

00:32:44.760 say that

00:32:45.100 everybody who

00:32:46.000 is on record

00:32:47.340 as having

00:32:47.960 said you know

00:32:48.560 a year ago

00:32:49.240 I was kind

00:32:49.840 of calling this

00:32:50.460 out already

00:32:51.080 all those

00:32:52.520 people are

00:32:52.920 right.

00:32:54.860 Yeah Tucker

00:32:55.540 was on it

00:32:56.120 early for

00:32:57.900 example.

00:33:00.160 But my

00:33:00.880 weirdest

00:33:01.240 prediction is

00:33:03.020 and I

00:33:03.500 tweeted it

00:33:04.400 today and

00:33:06.680 I know you're

00:33:07.160 never supposed

00:33:07.600 to reveal a

00:33:08.640 conversation a

00:33:09.500 private conversation

00:33:10.460 you have with

00:33:10.860 the president

00:33:11.260 but this is a

00:33:12.660 special case and

00:33:13.600 I'm only revealing

00:33:14.340 this one little

00:33:15.180 nugget because

00:33:15.940 it's fun and

00:33:16.700 because the

00:33:17.040 president wouldn't

00:33:17.720 mind and it

00:33:19.060 was that when

00:33:19.820 I when he

00:33:20.940 he invited me

00:33:22.160 to the Oval

00:33:22.680 Office to

00:33:23.540 chat in

00:33:24.340 2018 so

00:33:26.020 this is August

00:33:26.720 2018 so

00:33:28.480 just just

00:33:29.020 think about how

00:33:29.560 long ago this

00:33:30.240 was it's August

00:33:30.980 2018 and

00:33:33.100 he asked me

00:33:35.480 my prediction

00:33:36.060 for who would

00:33:36.720 get the

00:33:37.000 nomination and

00:33:38.820 I said Kamala

00:33:39.560 Harris and he

00:33:40.780 said Joe

00:33:41.360 Biden.

00:33:42.680 So in

00:33:43.060 August of

00:33:44.540 2018 President

00:33:46.600 Trump called

00:33:48.540 the and I

00:33:49.880 think we can

00:33:50.340 assume that

00:33:50.920 Biden will get

00:33:51.520 the nomination

00:33:52.100 unless he

00:33:52.640 falls apart

00:33:53.400 but Trump

00:33:55.860 called it

00:33:56.520 he called it

00:33:57.840 correctly

00:33:58.500 confidently

00:34:00.240 he was pretty

00:34:02.420 confident about

00:34:03.140 it and he

00:34:04.060 called it in

00:34:05.260 August of

00:34:05.960 2018 that's

00:34:06.760 pretty good

00:34:07.180 right I have

00:34:08.880 to say now

00:34:09.800 my prediction

00:34:11.460 seemed to be

00:34:13.620 going poorly

00:34:14.560 when Kamala

00:34:15.780 Harris suspended

00:34:16.640 her campaign 1.00

00:34:17.320 so you might

00:34:18.840 say to

00:34:19.180 yourself well

00:34:20.400 Scott after

00:34:21.720 ISIS has

00:34:22.440 taken credit

00:34:23.220 that's when

00:34:24.760 you can say

00:34:25.300 you're wrong

00:34:25.880 oh no

00:34:26.960 that's not

00:34:28.020 how I roll

00:34:28.700 I don't care

00:34:29.860 if ISIS took

00:34:30.560 credit I'm

00:34:31.180 still going to

00:34:31.600 say it wasn't

00:34:32.120 ISIS as with 0.99

00:34:33.880 the Vegas

00:34:34.240 shooter and

00:34:35.540 just because

00:34:36.160 Kamala Harris

00:34:36.880 stopped running

00:34:38.440 for president

00:34:39.140 that didn't

00:34:40.580 mean she 0.99

00:34:40.940 wasn't going

00:34:41.520 to get the

00:34:41.940 nomination

00:34:42.360 no if you

00:34:43.120 recall I

00:34:44.160 was quite

00:34:44.680 insistent that

00:34:46.280 my that my

00:34:47.300 prediction would

00:34:48.000 stand now as

00:34:50.000 of today the

00:34:51.160 the news is

00:34:52.520 reporting that

00:34:53.320 he's hinting

00:34:54.120 so strongly that

00:34:55.980 he's going to

00:34:56.560 pick her as 0.98

00:34:57.160 vice president

00:34:57.840 that at this

00:34:59.580 point it might

00:35:00.400 be surprising

00:35:01.220 if he didn't

00:35:02.200 because he's

00:35:03.720 just sort of

00:35:04.200 talking about

00:35:04.900 her in a way

00:35:05.680 that makes

00:35:06.800 you think he

00:35:07.760 is he's not

00:35:09.060 doing a good

00:35:09.560 job of hiding

00:35:10.300 his intentions

00:35:10.980 now let me

00:35:14.140 say as clearly

00:35:14.840 as possible

00:35:15.500 it's not a

00:35:16.980 done deal

00:35:17.500 because first

00:35:18.800 of all I'm

00:35:19.300 not even sure

00:35:19.860 that Biden

00:35:20.620 gets to pick

00:35:21.440 his own vice

00:35:22.060 president at

00:35:22.740 this point I

00:35:23.920 feel like the

00:35:24.520 deep state is

00:35:25.260 just going to

00:35:25.700 assign him a

00:35:26.320 vice president

00:35:26.940 so that the

00:35:28.240 usual people are

00:35:29.060 in charge once

00:35:30.000 once he gets

00:35:30.740 in office or

00:35:31.480 or let's say

00:35:32.540 even he has

00:35:33.500 to drop out

00:35:34.680 before he gets

00:35:35.600 in office the

00:35:36.940 vice president

00:35:37.640 would be the

00:35:38.200 obvious one to

00:35:38.840 take over the

00:35:39.380 top of the

00:35:39.760 ticket so if

00:35:44.240 Kamala Harris is

00:35:45.120 the one who

00:35:45.460 was picked I

00:35:46.180 would say we're

00:35:46.960 no more than

00:35:47.640 60% likely at

00:35:49.260 this point if I

00:35:50.180 had to put the

00:35:50.540 odds on it but

00:35:51.940 it's still my

00:35:52.400 prediction she

00:35:54.020 would become the

00:35:54.620 vice presidential

00:35:55.280 pick for a

00:35:56.080 candidate that

00:35:56.820 even the

00:35:57.380 Democrats realize

00:35:58.440 is not capable

00:35:59.820 to hold the

00:36:00.480 job and even

00:36:02.080 Biden has

00:36:02.760 suggested that

00:36:03.660 he knows it

00:36:04.320 too because

00:36:05.580 he's talked

00:36:06.160 about getting

00:36:06.580 somebody younger

00:36:07.260 for the obvious

00:36:07.920 reason and it

00:36:10.320 feels as though

00:36:11.160 unless something

00:36:13.360 changes it feels

00:36:15.320 like the obvious

00:36:16.420 path of this is

00:36:19.220 that for all

00:36:19.660 practical purposes

00:36:20.740 Kamala Harris

00:36:21.500 will be will

00:36:22.380 be the will be

00:36:24.620 the nominee

00:36:25.340 whether

00:36:26.600 officially or

00:36:27.900 not in a

00:36:29.860 practical matter

00:36:30.640 I think people

00:36:31.540 will be voting

00:36:32.180 for the vice

00:36:33.220 president so

00:36:34.740 would you say

00:36:36.300 my prediction

00:36:37.020 of Kamala

00:36:38.860 Harris as the

00:36:39.540 nominee would be

00:36:40.440 wrong under

00:36:43.060 these circumstances

00:36:44.160 if she were the 0.76

00:36:45.600 vice presidential

00:36:46.420 pick well my

00:36:48.240 critics will say

00:36:49.000 yes it's wrong

00:36:49.820 and I will of

00:36:51.560 course say yeah

00:36:52.700 it's technically

00:36:54.080 wrong it's

00:36:56.300 technically wrong

00:36:57.360 and somebody

00:36:59.980 says you are

00:37:00.880 out of touch

00:37:01.600 guess what

00:37:03.700 happens to

00:37:04.200 people who say

00:37:05.040 you are out of

00:37:06.380 touch they

00:37:08.720 become out of

00:37:09.400 touched now

00:37:11.460 you're out of

00:37:12.060 touched no

00:37:12.800 you're out of

00:37:13.400 touched again

00:37:14.980 the rule is you

00:37:16.660 can disagree with

00:37:17.540 anything I say

00:37:18.260 you just can't say

00:37:19.060 something about

00:37:19.680 me don't say

00:37:22.400 I'm out of

00:37:23.120 touch just

00:37:24.480 tell me what

00:37:25.340 I don't know

00:37:25.940 that works

00:37:27.140 too

00:37:27.440 all right

00:37:32.080 somebody's saying

00:37:32.680 yes still wrong

00:37:33.680 now if I didn't

00:37:34.660 know what you

00:37:35.180 meant by that

00:37:35.920 I'd probably

00:37:37.140 block you for

00:37:37.680 that but I

00:37:38.240 know what you

00:37:38.540 mean

00:37:38.740 so I see a

00:37:43.740 lot of you

00:37:44.160 who are

00:37:44.840 rejecting

00:37:45.400 the prediction

00:37:47.740 so so just

00:37:50.660 remember this

00:37:51.540 when you come

00:37:52.520 back to mock

00:37:53.260 me should I

00:37:53.900 be should I

00:37:54.500 be wrong

00:37:55.000 should I be

00:37:56.800 wrong I

00:37:58.200 will look

00:37:59.880 you in the

00:38:00.360 camera and

00:38:02.260 I will admit

00:38:02.980 I was wrong

00:38:03.760 you don't have

00:38:05.520 to remind me

00:38:06.760 right you

00:38:08.760 don't have to

00:38:09.120 remind me I'll

00:38:10.300 admit it and

00:38:11.800 I promise you I

00:38:12.740 will admit it if

00:38:13.840 she does not get

00:38:14.580 the vice

00:38:15.100 presidential nod

00:38:16.260 all right

00:38:16.820 let's see

00:38:21.640 here's a

00:38:23.680 well I kind

00:38:25.180 of said this

00:38:25.640 before but I

00:38:26.860 feel like when

00:38:27.480 this is over

00:38:28.180 whenever that

00:38:29.780 happens I

00:38:32.020 feel I feel

00:38:34.380 like we're going

00:38:34.860 to be proud

00:38:35.640 I feel like

00:38:37.680 humanity is

00:38:38.680 going to feel

00:38:39.180 like it did

00:38:41.080 well you know

00:38:42.360 there's of

00:38:43.400 course you know

00:38:44.320 the tragedies

00:38:45.580 that come out

00:38:45.980 of this and

00:38:46.400 the you know

00:38:47.460 the discomfort

00:38:48.300 and pain are

00:38:49.280 all terrible

00:38:50.000 and cannot be

00:38:50.660 minimized but I

00:38:52.680 think we're going

00:38:53.240 to be proud when

00:38:54.000 we come out of

00:38:54.560 this I think it

00:38:55.740 will work that

00:38:56.260 well all right

00:38:59.180 see what else is

00:39:00.300 going on here

00:39:00.880 I also think I

00:39:05.560 also think that the

00:39:07.360 unintentional benefit

00:39:08.780 from this pandemic

00:39:09.860 will be we don't

00:39:14.220 like your message

00:39:15.160 what message the

00:39:18.940 accidental benefit

00:39:19.760 will be decoupling

00:39:21.020 from China because

00:39:22.460 I think public

00:39:23.160 opinion was sort

00:39:24.080 of beginning to

00:39:25.020 lean in that

00:39:25.800 direction of yeah

00:39:26.820 maybe China is

00:39:28.680 not our friend

00:39:29.700 but I think the

00:39:31.060 pandemic changed

00:39:32.080 people's emotional

00:39:33.340 feeling about China

00:39:35.680 and the whole

00:39:36.320 relationship and so

00:39:37.740 I would say at this

00:39:38.380 point we came out

00:39:39.320 way ahead you know

00:39:41.100 the pandemic is going

00:39:42.280 to cost us how

00:39:43.540 many trillion two

00:39:45.320 or three two or

00:39:47.840 three trillion but I

00:39:49.720 think we still come

00:39:50.640 out ahead in the long

00:39:51.640 run if we cut the

00:39:53.620 cord with China and

00:39:55.340 bring our stuff home

00:39:56.240 I think we could

00:39:57.540 make up three

00:39:58.160 trillion because

00:39:59.460 remember the what

00:40:00.380 is the what's the

00:40:02.300 full economy does

00:40:04.140 anybody know the

00:40:04.740 full it is in a

00:40:05.540 five trillion dollar

00:40:06.680 economy somebody

00:40:07.900 help me out with

00:40:08.460 that but I think

00:40:09.900 you know if you

00:40:11.080 take that three

00:40:11.700 trillion and spread

00:40:12.640 it out over X

00:40:14.260 years as one does

00:40:15.560 I think just the

00:40:17.740 benefit of getting

00:40:18.940 China out of our 1.00

00:40:20.040 supply chain and

00:40:21.260 bringing that work

00:40:22.140 home we may end

00:40:24.540 up making back

00:40:25.780 the whole three

00:40:26.520 trillion in the

00:40:27.940 long run all

00:40:29.400 right so I've

00:40:33.340 predicted that

00:40:33.960 there will be an

00:40:34.460 oxytocin delivery

00:40:35.500 service if we have

00:40:36.640 to keep up this

00:40:37.460 social isolation

00:40:38.260 because you know

00:40:39.300 humans go a little 0.99

00:40:40.180 squirrely if they

00:40:41.140 don't have physical

00:40:42.000 touch and physical

00:40:43.980 touch releases a

00:40:45.240 chemical in you

00:40:46.040 called oxytocin

00:40:47.000 it's the thing that

00:40:47.720 makes you bond

00:40:49.040 with people it's the

00:40:50.100 thing that gives you

00:40:50.660 a feeling of

00:40:51.280 well-being it's the

00:40:52.780 thing that calms all

00:40:54.040 your stress and

00:40:54.840 makes all your

00:40:55.320 problems go away

00:40:56.060 you've probably

00:40:56.880 noticed that you

00:40:57.480 could have all the

00:40:58.020 problems in the

00:40:58.640 world but if you're

00:41:00.340 with your loved one

00:41:01.280 and you have a good

00:41:02.060 time together suddenly

00:41:03.720 all the problems in

00:41:05.000 the world don't seem

00:41:06.300 so bad so that's the

00:41:07.720 oxytocin in you now

00:41:09.880 since we all have this

00:41:11.040 social isolation what

00:41:13.060 are you going to do

00:41:13.680 what are you going to

00:41:15.340 do somebody in the

00:41:17.240 comments is saying our

00:41:18.240 economy is five to

00:41:19.540 six trillion I'm

00:41:20.500 seeing six trillion

00:41:21.360 right so the the

00:41:23.480 point stands a six

00:41:25.280 trillion dollar economy

00:41:26.380 could probably get

00:41:28.300 back three trillion

00:41:29.800 over 25 years you

00:41:33.280 know just by the

00:41:34.620 benefit of not dealing

00:41:35.520 with China anymore

00:41:36.240 potentially so oxytocin

00:41:40.880 so what's going to

00:41:42.160 happen if we keep

00:41:43.240 getting starved of

00:41:44.160 oxytocin besides the

00:41:45.360 fact it will be

00:41:45.940 unhappy and and crazy

00:41:47.840 I think you might

00:41:49.500 see people who

00:41:50.260 already have been

00:41:51.120 tested to have

00:41:52.680 recovered and have

00:41:53.580 antibodies they may do

00:41:55.920 that business that

00:41:56.880 you've heard of I

00:41:57.580 think it still exists

00:41:58.360 where people actually

00:41:59.900 get paid to hug

00:42:01.620 people and and they

00:42:03.880 just go and they

00:42:04.740 cuddle with you for a

00:42:05.640 while if you don't

00:42:06.660 have anybody in your

00:42:07.380 life it's usually a

00:42:08.480 woman I don't think

00:42:09.160 it has to be but I'll

00:42:11.700 bet you you're going

00:42:12.340 to see that business

00:42:13.120 spring up because

00:42:14.940 think of you know

00:42:16.100 once we have a

00:42:17.100 bifurcated population 0.94

00:42:18.660 where some people

00:42:19.980 have recovered and

00:42:20.840 they have the

00:42:21.140 antibodies but other

00:42:22.180 people are so

00:42:22.840 vulnerable they could

00:42:23.680 die the people who

00:42:25.040 have the antibodies 0.99

00:42:25.800 that are confirmed to

00:42:27.500 have recovered will be

00:42:29.620 like super beings who

00:42:31.540 can you know who can

00:42:32.760 you know deal in both

00:42:34.240 worlds while the

00:42:35.740 people who haven't yet

00:42:36.780 caught anything and

00:42:37.980 don't have a

00:42:38.440 vaccination will be 0.95

00:42:39.900 you know cowering in

00:42:40.920 our caves so I think

00:42:42.440 some of them will

00:42:43.220 actually it will be

00:42:44.300 like you know

00:42:46.020 ordering DoorDash

00:42:46.960 I think people will

00:42:49.060 order hugs like 0.59

00:42:50.680 actual literally

00:42:51.720 you'll you'll go on

00:42:53.660 your app and you'll

00:42:54.320 say I just need 15

00:42:56.340 minutes of spooning

00:42:57.800 and somebody will come

00:42:59.460 to your house and

00:43:00.080 spoon you for 15

00:43:00.980 minutes and you pay

00:43:02.380 them by the app

00:43:03.060 could happen

00:43:05.000 so I would like to

00:43:08.520 create for you for

00:43:10.480 tonight an artificial

00:43:13.080 oxytocin high

00:43:14.780 so that chemical that

00:43:17.080 normally is only

00:43:17.940 produced by close

00:43:21.160 physical contact can

00:43:23.680 also be to a

00:43:25.680 slightly lesser extent

00:43:26.880 can be artificially

00:43:28.900 generated by a brain

00:43:30.480 hack do you believe

00:43:32.280 it do you believe

00:43:34.000 there's a brain hack

00:43:35.400 or a trick that can

00:43:38.240 kind of close the

00:43:40.680 circuitry in your brain

00:43:42.040 that initiates your

00:43:43.820 oxytocin because

00:43:45.420 remember it happens

00:43:46.660 basically in your brain

00:43:48.280 in your own body even

00:43:49.920 though the other person

00:43:50.860 is involved it's not

00:43:52.580 like they're shooting

00:43:53.660 chemicals from their

00:43:55.060 body into yours right

00:43:56.980 your experience is a

00:43:58.520 subjective one and

00:44:00.300 and your feeling of the

00:44:02.420 subjective experience is

00:44:04.440 what makes your brain

00:44:05.540 chemistry do a certain

00:44:07.720 thing which triggers your

00:44:09.780 oxytocin that flows into

00:44:11.440 your body in your mind

00:44:12.620 and makes you feel

00:44:13.720 awesome so if there

00:44:15.320 were some way to

00:44:17.640 close that little

00:44:18.520 circuitry and

00:44:19.680 activate your

00:44:20.500 oxytocin without the

00:44:21.900 benefit of a person

00:44:22.800 there wouldn't that

00:44:24.420 be cool it turns out

00:44:26.580 there is and I've

00:44:29.000 taught you the trick

00:44:29.880 but until you see lots

00:44:31.540 of examples of it you

00:44:33.380 don't completely get the

00:44:34.940 beauty of it and the

00:44:37.860 trick is that our mind

00:44:39.020 is an association

00:44:39.900 engine it's a it's a

00:44:42.360 pattern recognition

00:44:43.220 engine sometimes but

00:44:44.940 it's also an association

00:44:46.080 engine so if for

00:44:47.860 example I took this

00:44:51.160 bottle of water yeah

00:44:53.360 that's a bad example

00:44:54.200 because it's too

00:44:54.980 common let's say I

00:44:56.280 took this little tripod

00:44:58.620 that's a little bit less

00:45:00.580 common than a bottle of

00:45:01.560 water and every time

00:45:03.240 every time I showed it to

00:45:05.420 you I fed you a

00:45:07.100 delicious meal your

00:45:08.100 favorite meal like the

00:45:09.140 best food you've ever

00:45:10.180 had in your life but

00:45:11.740 no other time do you

00:45:13.660 ever get to see this

00:45:14.660 it's the only time you'll

00:45:15.860 ever see it over time

00:45:18.000 simply seeing this

00:45:20.040 without the food would

00:45:22.140 start to make you happy

00:45:23.260 in the same way that the

00:45:24.400 delicious food did so

00:45:25.960 your brain just

00:45:26.700 automatically pairs

00:45:27.900 things whether you like

00:45:29.000 it or not now you knew

00:45:30.260 this of course because

00:45:31.160 that's the whole concept

00:45:32.300 behind you hear a song

00:45:34.400 that was your song when

00:45:35.780 you were in a

00:45:36.280 relationship and it

00:45:37.180 makes you sad because

00:45:38.120 it reminds you of that

00:45:39.240 right so you know the

00:45:40.640 songs can trigger a

00:45:41.980 relationship you know

00:45:43.640 that lots of other

00:45:44.280 things can trigger these

00:45:45.780 associations so if you

00:45:48.700 would like to get a

00:45:50.040 little oxytocin and who

00:45:52.780 wouldn't here's what you

00:45:54.760 need to do the first

00:45:57.460 thing you need to do is

00:45:58.920 reproduce a sum of the

00:46:01.160 physicality that's what

00:46:03.060 this blanket's for this

00:46:04.560 blanket is chosen

00:46:06.020 scientifically sort of

00:46:08.200 meaning that it's just

00:46:09.980 the right feeling and

00:46:12.600 softness because when I

00:46:14.680 have it on me I get a

00:46:16.460 feeling of softness and a

00:46:17.960 little bit surrounded it's

00:46:19.740 actually sort of hugging

00:46:21.040 me now if you think that

00:46:23.600 being hugged by a soft

00:46:25.060 blanket is so completely

00:46:27.360 different than being hugged

00:46:29.080 by a human being well of

00:46:30.340 course it is but it's not

00:46:32.280 that different because

00:46:33.700 your body is an

00:46:34.520 association machine and

00:46:36.260 when you associate the

00:46:37.220 feeling of wow that is

00:46:39.700 soft and warm and feels

00:46:41.180 good on my body it's going

00:46:43.540 to trigger some of the

00:46:44.600 same chemistry and mental

00:46:46.520 processes and just by

00:46:48.560 memory and association of

00:46:50.100 the real thing so some of

00:46:52.220 it's physical there's there

00:46:53.220 were tests of little monkey

00:46:55.620 babies that didn't have 0.75

00:46:56.740 mothers and if they gave 0.97

00:46:58.160 them a warm water bottle

00:47:00.020 they actually were pretty

00:47:01.940 happy because the just the

00:47:03.900 physical warm water bottle

00:47:05.360 felt sort of like a person

00:47:07.440 felt sort of like a mommy

00:47:08.860 so reproduce the physical

00:47:12.320 comfort of a human hug so

00:47:15.660 you might want to get you

00:47:16.820 know you might want to be

00:47:17.580 near the fireplace if you

00:47:19.340 have a pet who's good at

00:47:21.240 snuggling well put on a

00:47:23.400 blanket sit by the fireplace

00:47:25.060 get on your comfortable rug

00:47:27.280 spoon with your bigger old 0.73

00:47:29.300 dog or your cat on your

00:47:30.780 chest and these these

00:47:32.900 feelings are similar enough

00:47:34.840 to things that you feel when

00:47:36.680 you're with a real person that

00:47:38.460 it can trigger them at least

00:47:40.360 partially and then then the

00:47:44.880 other thing you want to do is

00:47:46.740 you want to manage your mental

00:47:48.260 shelf space and put things on

00:47:50.900 it that create oxytocin and

00:47:53.580 make sure that there's no

00:47:54.520 space on the mental shelf

00:47:56.000 for any bad thoughts to get

00:47:58.040 in that work against it so

00:47:59.880 if you just don't bother

00:48:01.360 managing what you're

00:48:02.800 thinking well thoughts will

00:48:04.740 just sort of occur to you in

00:48:06.200 a semi-random way and some

00:48:07.820 of them will be bad so don't

00:48:10.040 do that so once you're in

00:48:12.060 your soft comfortable warm

00:48:14.860 place hugging your cat or dog

00:48:17.540 or whatever you're doing this

00:48:19.440 assumes you don't actually have

00:48:20.520 a human that you can be

00:48:21.400 hugging then close your eyes

00:48:24.200 and think about the person

00:48:26.920 you most would want to hug put

00:48:29.180 yourself in the situation now

00:48:31.020 here's the trick run through all

00:48:33.740 five senses in order say to

00:48:36.800 yourself okay I can visualize

00:48:38.900 what that looks like that's your

00:48:41.160 eyes I can smell it you know the

00:48:44.380 perfume the scent I can feel it in

00:48:48.160 your just in your imagination but

00:48:49.960 you're also feeling your soft

00:48:51.200 blanket the fire your pet

00:48:53.140 perhaps maybe you've got a maybe

00:48:55.620 you've got a body pillow by the

00:48:57.180 way if you haven't tried a body

00:48:59.060 pillow you should because it's

00:49:03.300 almost disturbing how good it

00:49:06.560 feels so if you have one try that

00:49:09.940 so imagine if you will and fill up

00:49:12.380 your mental space with just thoughts

00:49:14.220 thoughts where you cycle through

00:49:16.040 all of your your sensations you

00:49:18.420 know you're you're hearing your

00:49:19.680 touch your scent your taste if it

00:49:23.280 makes sense if there's something

00:49:24.340 that you often would eat or taste

00:49:27.040 with this person so you just run

00:49:30.200 through it and you make sure that

00:49:31.380 you're concentrating as much as

00:49:32.760 possible on the thought of what it

00:49:34.940 feels like to be with that one you

00:49:36.560 would most like to cuddle it works

00:49:38.960 best it works best if it's somebody

00:49:43.120 that you have an actual

00:49:44.040 relationship with or you can

00:49:46.400 remember it and you have good

00:49:47.560 feelings about it not somebody you

00:49:48.900 broke up with ideally but you know

00:49:51.900 something that's only positive so I

00:49:55.860 will be daydreaming of Christina as I

00:50:00.060 as I often do while I'm hugging my

00:50:02.380 pillow and of course it's the rest of

00:50:08.720 you I know how hard it is for all of

00:50:10.160 you but I want you to take a moment to

00:50:12.940 feel sorry for me not only can I not be

00:50:16.560 with my fiance but by terrible luck she

00:50:22.540 is the most attractive human being in

00:50:24.580 the multiverse now it'd probably be

00:50:27.920 easier not to see her if she if she

00:50:31.000 were not so darn lovely and if I didn't

00:50:34.440 love her so much and if she were not so

00:50:36.780 incredibly attractive but that's my

00:50:40.780 that's my my personal hell but I do get

00:50:44.740 to spend time with you that's not

00:50:46.640 nothing and tonight when you go

00:50:49.000 drifting off you're going to remember

00:50:52.460 the oxytocin trick and you're going to

00:50:55.260 feel almost like a tingle you're going to

00:50:58.040 feel some of you not all of you and not

00:50:59.840 all the time but some of you are going

00:51:01.660 to feel it when you get in the zone and

00:51:03.620 you can feel the warmth and the you're

00:51:06.200 just comfortable and you're thinking

00:51:07.940 about that person you most want to hug and

00:51:10.540 you feel like a little tingle it'll be

00:51:12.640 like a little almost a like a blush that

00:51:15.860 comes across some part of your body

00:51:17.620 could be different everybody's a little

00:51:19.400 different so you might feel it sort of in

00:51:21.520 your head or your neck might have a little

00:51:23.480 tingle on your arms but that's how you

00:51:26.020 know you're in the zone and tonight you're

00:51:29.820 going to have one of the best sleeps of

00:51:32.520 your life and you wake up feeling a little

00:51:34.520 bit better than normal you might not know

00:51:36.700 why but it's a little thing called

00:51:39.320 oxytocin have a great night I'll see you

00:51:43.320 in the morning

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 09, 2020

Episode 901 Scott Adams： I Feel a Sensational Simultaneous Swaddle Coming on. Don't Resist!

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