Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 914 Scott Adams： The Best Simultaneous Sip EVER is Right Here

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in. It's time for the Simultaneous Sip. Coffee with Scott Adams. Aren't you glad you're here? I'm glad you're here. Otherwise I'd be talking to myself. And that's crazy.

00:00:26.280 If you'd like to participate in what promises to be, I think I can say this with some confidence, the best Simultaneous Sip ever, it's coming up really soon.

00:00:42.600 And all you need to participate is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:56.600 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the pandemic. It's called the Simultaneous Sip. Happens now. Go.

00:01:12.600 I was right. I was right. Did you feel that? Best one ever, right? I thought so. Nailed it.

00:01:24.960 All right. Let's talk about all the things. There are many things and we should talk about them.

00:01:35.520 Adam Townsend asked this provocative question on Twitter. He says,

00:01:40.660 Why isn't Antifa, the anti-fascists, protesting lockdown's fascism elements?

00:01:47.900 And I thought to myself, yeah, why is Antifa not protesting the government telling people to do stuff like stay home and don't go to work?

00:02:01.800 Isn't that exactly what they're supposed to be doing?

00:02:05.940 Or more generally, did somebody stop paying Antifa?

00:02:11.240 Because I feel like they got really quiet.

00:02:14.360 You know, not just because of the virus, but did Antifa just go away?

00:02:20.640 And if Antifa just went away, did they take Black Lives Matter with them?

00:02:27.100 Have you heard of Black Lives Matter lately?

00:02:31.860 Have they done anything lately?

00:02:36.780 So it seems to me that Antifa and Black Lives Matter just sort of disappeared, didn't they?

00:02:44.900 Did you notice they were gone?

00:02:47.040 Just you wake up one day and there's no Antifa and you don't really notice.

00:02:51.380 And the day goes by and there's no Black Lives Matter.

00:02:54.060 And next thing you know, a year has gone by and you haven't heard from them.

00:02:58.480 I mean, it feels like a year for Black Lives Matter, Antifa, more recently, I suppose.

00:03:03.900 Anyway, it's a good question.

00:03:07.160 Now, I would like to remind you, because I'm getting lots of heat from people online,

00:03:12.820 for what they imagine is my opinion.

00:03:15.180 You know, the normal thing for Twitter is that I would say 80% of all the critics I've ever had

00:03:21.860 are complaining about something they imagine, I think, or they imagine I said,

00:03:26.760 or they imagine I did, but I didn't.

00:03:29.120 So with that in mind, I thought I would clarify my opinion.

00:03:34.420 And I can see why it's confusing.

00:03:36.000 So on January 24th, I was loudly and with much profanity saying we should close travel from China

00:03:47.100 because China had closed Wuhan the day before.

00:03:52.300 And I quite reasonably thought, if China's going to close Wuhan,

00:03:57.460 maybe we should close flights from China,

00:04:00.680 because whatever they're looking at, we don't want that.

00:04:03.600 Now, closing flights from China is a very small cost relative to what we're seeing now,

00:04:13.280 the close down of the entire economy, or much of it.

00:04:17.820 And to me, that seemed like a completely reasonable insurance cost.

00:04:24.420 You know, when you buy insurance, if you don't have a car accident,

00:04:28.540 you can't say the insurance was wasted, because you buy it to manage your risk.

00:04:34.860 You know, it's not wasted if you don't need it.

00:04:36.800 That's what insurance is.

00:04:38.400 It's just in case.

00:04:40.260 And so to me, closing the flights from China was like an insurance model.

00:04:46.180 It's like, it probably won't make a difference, but it might.

00:04:50.520 And if it did make a difference, it would be a big difference.

00:04:52.560 So I was very forcefully and early on closing flights.

00:04:58.000 But I think this is where people get confused.

00:05:02.340 Correct me if I'm wrong.

00:05:04.280 I don't believe that I've ever offered an opinion about the lockdown

00:05:09.820 or whether we should go back to work or how.

00:05:13.160 You know, when, how.

00:05:14.160 I mean, I've offered suggestions of how it would look, but I've not, is it, can anybody

00:05:23.620 confirm that?

00:05:24.620 I've not offered an opinion on whether we're being too restrictive or not restrictive enough.

00:05:30.500 And what's confusing is I have criticized the thinking or the information from people on

00:05:38.680 both sides of the argument.

00:05:39.780 So I think people believe that if you criticize somebody's argument, that you're on the other

00:05:45.820 side.

00:05:46.700 That's not the case.

00:05:48.300 What's the other side?

00:05:50.440 Why is there even an other side about a medical slash economic question?

00:05:56.260 None of us know the right answer.

00:05:59.260 But we can certainly identify when somebody's thinking about it in a, let's say, a less useful

00:06:05.200 way.

00:06:05.560 So I've been quite aggressive trying to correct people's way of thinking, which is completely

00:06:13.560 different from telling them my opinion and, you know, and doing that.

00:06:17.720 But enough time has gone by and enough things have happened that I feel like I'm comfortable

00:06:26.540 giving you my opinion now.

00:06:28.500 So this will be the first time you've heard my opinion about what we should do in terms of

00:06:33.540 going back to work.

00:06:34.360 I'm somewhat influenced by, well, not somewhat, I'm influenced by what we've learned so far.

00:06:41.980 I'm influenced by the reaction of the public, which is a big variable.

00:06:48.280 You know, I take the emotions, the feelings, the, you know, the, you know, just the energy

00:06:54.720 that the public is putting in this.

00:06:56.440 Those are gigantic variables.

00:06:57.900 But here's, here's sort of what I might call the last straw that makes it easy to have

00:07:07.100 my opinion.

00:07:08.620 All right.

00:07:09.080 Because I even, you know, last 24 hours, I was thinking, I don't know, I think I could

00:07:13.920 go firm on an opinion, but I'm waiting.

00:07:17.540 And then I saw this.

00:07:19.860 Apparently, Nancy Pelosi was on one of the late night shows, and she was doing a remote

00:07:26.040 tour of her refrigerators in her home to show how she was stocking up, I don't know, for

00:07:32.380 the pandemic or just for fun.

00:07:34.840 And she's standing in front of two sub-zero refrigerators. 0.66

00:07:38.060 The total cost of her refrigerators, just the refrigerators, the two of them, is more than

00:07:45.720 most people earn in a year.

00:07:48.500 And she opens it up, and it's well-stocked in her mansion with ice cream and stuff.

00:07:53.520 And I think other people had a similar response, which is, our multi-million dollar leaders don't

00:08:03.140 seem to have, I don't think they're reading the room right, you know what I mean?

00:08:09.680 If Nancy Pelosi is showing us how much food she has stocked in her two expensive side-by-side

00:08:18.300 sub-zero freezers, I don't think she's reading the room right, do you?

00:08:25.840 That feels so out of touch with whatever is the experience of the, you know, the working

00:08:32.220 class and the people who are suffering this week.

00:08:36.040 That was sort of like a final straw for me.

00:08:39.820 You know, it just made it easy to have an opinion.

00:08:41.800 Here's my opinion.

00:08:43.960 My opinion on this is similar to, but different, from my opinion about how we should come up

00:08:50.360 with abortion laws.

00:08:52.560 And my opinion on abortion is that men should just stay out of it, because the, except for 1.00

00:08:57.260 the money decisions, we should be involved in money.

00:09:00.260 And I'm not saying you shouldn't have a right to talk about it, you can do whatever you

00:09:03.660 want.

00:09:04.620 I'm just saying you get a more credible decision if whatever we come up with is what the majority

00:09:10.420 of women support, because they have more skin in the game, you know, for all the obvious 1.00

00:09:16.040 reasons.

00:09:16.840 So I'm not saying that men should not have a vote, or, you know, I'm not taking away your

00:09:21.740 right to talk about it or anything.

00:09:23.040 I'm just saying if you want the most credible set of laws, whichever way they go, pro-abortion 0.99

00:09:29.740 and against abortion, the most credible is the ones that women as a majority support.

00:09:35.780 Likewise, and learning from that, but it's a different situation, obviously, analogies

00:09:40.680 are not exact.

00:09:41.860 But taking from that, and I look at the decision to go back to work, I'm pretty sure that my

00:09:50.100 decision about my personal risk should be irrelevant.

00:09:55.480 And I've tried to hold that to be true, because it'd be real easy for me to say, you know, and

00:10:02.580 this is true, my personal experience isn't that bad.

00:10:06.500 I'm literally in a mansion that I built to have everything I want.

00:10:12.880 I'm, you know, my income pretty much is going to, you know, go down 75% when newspapers go

00:10:20.600 out of business by the end of the year, I think.

00:10:22.940 So I'm taking a big hit, but not like somebody who lost a job.

00:10:29.060 You know, I'm not taking a hit like somebody who can't pay their rent.

00:10:31.600 I'm not in that category.

00:10:32.620 So from a moral and ethical perspective, I would not try to take my specific, unique

00:10:41.340 situation and say, well, let's run the country based on what's good for Scott.

00:10:47.520 So I've been waiting to see, not only if we can learn more about, you know, the facts of

00:10:52.840 the virus, who's getting it, et cetera, how deadly is it, you know, what treatments do

00:10:58.260 we have and all that.

00:10:59.060 But also importantly, I was trying to read the room and try to find out where the country's

00:11:05.560 at, because it doesn't matter if you think we should do something, if you know the country

00:11:11.300 won't do it.

00:11:12.600 There's no point in talking about what you should do if it's impractical.

00:11:16.440 It doesn't fit with the mood of the country.

00:11:19.160 And here's my read of the mood of the country.

00:11:22.180 And I realize this could be off a little bit because I probably see more traffic on social

00:11:28.100 media from one type of person than another.

00:11:30.720 But here's my take on it.

00:11:34.680 I believe that the country as a whole, and again, so far, this is not my opinion.

00:11:39.480 I'll tell you when I get to my opinion.

00:11:41.000 The country's opinion as a consensus seems to be very strongly, this is my sense of it,

00:11:49.360 could be wrong.

00:11:50.660 It seems to me that the sense of the country is moving very much toward they'd rather open

00:11:57.300 up, go back to work, even if it does cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

00:12:04.260 So that's my read of the room, is that the country was sort of waiting and seeing, you

00:12:10.480 know, but at the moment, and certainly the direction of things, is moving very strongly,

00:12:17.500 this is my feel for it, very strongly toward if our only choice is that people die now or

00:12:25.540 later, which seems to be the only choice, because we don't have a vaccine, we, you know,

00:12:31.440 basically a lot of people are going to get this thing, I think the country has decided

00:12:35.720 to take the risk.

00:12:38.000 And I'm looking at the comments, and I realize that I think the people on this periscope are

00:12:43.500 not exactly a, you know, a random subsection of the planet, but I was, I was very much trying

00:12:51.480 to figure out if people were speaking only selfishly.

00:12:55.760 Like, I was trying to get a sense, all right, are you only talking about yourself that is better

00:13:01.160 for you to go back to work, let's say you're young, you don't have much risk, or are you

00:13:05.360 really thinking about what's good for the country, because it's hard to sort those out.

00:13:09.600 And I've come to a decision that it doesn't matter.

00:13:12.460 It doesn't matter if other people are thinking about their own personal situation, or if other

00:13:19.440 people are thinking about what's good for the country, kind of doesn't matter, because

00:13:24.420 they're both on, they're both moving in the same direction, of what's good for the country,

00:13:28.760 and what's good for the individuals is starting to look the same, as in, time to open up.

00:13:35.480 So, this will be the first time you've heard my opinion.

00:13:38.400 My opinion is, I would like to support the consensus.

00:13:42.440 I'm not positive the consensus opinion is in my best interest.

00:13:46.580 But, do I or do I not have the freedom to stay hiding in my house as long as I want?

00:13:55.040 I do.

00:13:55.900 I do have the freedom to hide in my house as long as I want, if I want to manage my own

00:14:01.860 risk.

00:14:03.180 So, for the good of the country, the good of the world, it does seem to me we've reached

00:14:07.280 a turning point.

00:14:08.360 I think the President senses it as well.

00:14:10.320 Well, you know, everything he says suggests to me that he's got just exactly the same

00:14:16.280 feeling.

00:14:17.940 On day one, it's very hard to say, hey country, I think you should go out and accept, I don't

00:14:24.980 know, a million deaths, 200,000, whatever the number is, I think you should just go out

00:14:30.760 and accept those, because I might not be one of them.

00:14:33.660 Because even though I'm in a risk group, I know I can hide, you know, and I'll get good

00:14:40.840 health care if something happens.

00:14:42.480 But a lot of elderly people will die. 0.99

00:14:45.260 And I think we've just gotten to the point where people sort of thought about it for a

00:14:50.040 long time.

00:14:51.020 They looked at their own situation.

00:14:52.820 They looked at the big picture.

00:14:54.800 And I think people have just made a decision.

00:14:58.980 Yeah, I think people have made a decision.

00:15:00.680 And I also don't think it matters what the government thinks at this point, because I

00:15:06.960 think the public, this is my read of the room, my feeling is the public has decided to go back

00:15:14.340 to work.

00:15:16.400 The government can't stop us all, right?

00:15:19.400 The government can pretend to be in charge, and the governors can pretend to be in charge

00:15:25.480 too.

00:15:26.600 But ultimately, it really is up to the public.

00:15:28.940 Because if the public decided on May 1st, hey, you had your chance, I'm going back to

00:15:33.920 work today.

00:15:35.040 Well, there aren't enough police in the world to arrest them.

00:15:38.920 And by the way, the police would probably just go back to work too.

00:15:41.860 So, you know, it's sort of a fantasy that the government is in charge.

00:15:47.520 They're in charge if we let them.

00:15:49.020 The government is in charge if they have credibility.

00:15:54.000 The government is in charge if they have more information than we do.

00:15:57.580 And we're like, okay, you know more than I do.

00:15:59.800 But in this situation, I believe the government and the people have pretty much the same information.

00:16:07.340 Am I right?

00:16:07.960 I don't believe that President Trump really has some kind of secret information that you

00:16:13.960 and I don't have.

00:16:15.000 It doesn't look like it.

00:16:16.460 So I think we're perfectly capable to make this decision collectively.

00:16:21.060 And we've decided.

00:16:22.940 So the question about whether the governor should be the main people making the decisions for

00:16:28.620 their states versus the president, I think that's obvious, doesn't it?

00:16:32.760 Is there anyone who disagrees with that, that the governors are closer to the situation

00:16:37.880 and they should manage the specifics of their state?

00:16:41.020 I think we all agree with that, right?

00:16:42.820 Would anybody disagree?

00:16:45.560 So I think your government is doing exactly what you'd want them to do.

00:16:48.980 The federal government is just being helpful.

00:16:52.140 But they're also saying, Trump says this clearly, it's the governor's decision.

00:16:57.220 We just want to help.

00:16:58.240 But if they do something grotesquely wrong, we're going to get involved.

00:17:04.460 That's about as good as you can get, really.

00:17:08.600 What's better than that?

00:17:10.480 Describe any situation that would be better than what the president has offered to us.

00:17:15.380 I can't think of one.

00:17:16.540 It's the best one I can think of.

00:17:18.760 So that's where I'm at.

00:17:22.400 But the governors can decide, but if they don't have a plan that looks like a real plan in

00:17:29.460 the next couple weeks, the public will decide, right?

00:17:35.100 You know, the governors get first chance, but if they don't decide or it doesn't look like

00:17:41.880 a real plan that actually gets us to work, I think the public will decide.

00:17:45.680 So I think we're getting back to work.

00:17:49.140 And I think that we have decided as a civilization, decided as a country, that, let me say it

00:17:57.420 in the most, the starkest terms.

00:18:01.780 You ready?

00:18:02.580 Because I don't think we should enter a decision like this.

00:18:05.980 Because, you know, this is a big, it's a big expense either way you go, right?

00:18:10.120 Keep the economy closed, people die.

00:18:12.820 Open it up, people die.

00:18:13.640 So these are adult decisions, and I think we ought to be able to talk about them plainly.

00:18:19.100 And let me talk about it plainly right now.

00:18:22.580 It turns out that the so-called greatest generation has one more war. 0.79

00:18:30.940 So the people who, you know, lived through World War II probably thought they were done

00:18:36.880 with big wars.

00:18:38.520 But it turns out that they're right back in it.

00:18:41.600 And the people who will take the most casualties in this war is the same group whose age group

00:18:50.780 took the most casualties in World War II.

00:18:53.420 So we are asking the greatest generation to take one more for the team.

00:18:58.660 And you could have no clear situation.

00:19:03.480 I mean, it's as clear as World War II.

00:19:05.480 You know, the people who went off and fought.

00:19:07.220 They knew they were saving the country.

00:19:09.840 They knew that.

00:19:11.860 Likewise, we would be asking these people in their 80s, you know, part of the greatest generation,

00:19:16.600 to have a pretty high casualty rate.

00:19:21.560 And again, it would be for the good of the country.

00:19:23.880 It's not about their individual situation.

00:19:25.940 We would be asking them to sacrifice for the country.

00:19:29.380 So here's the question.

00:19:31.160 Do you think the greatest generation is up for it?

00:19:36.640 I say yes.

00:19:39.080 Now, of course, every individual will have their own independent opinion, so they're not all yes.

00:19:44.300 But what would lead us to believe that the greatest generation has changed?

00:19:53.660 I don't know that they have.

00:19:55.660 I think if you gave them the choice, you know, the ones who are still, you know, mentally alert,

00:20:02.020 if you went to your, you know, people who lived through World War II and say,

00:20:06.220 look, could you take another, you know, can you take one more war? 0.61

00:20:11.380 Can you fight one more war for the whole country?

00:20:17.080 What would they say?

00:20:18.980 I think they say yes.

00:20:21.080 I think they say yes.

00:20:23.760 So, Tucker Carlson, last night, he had a doctor slash scientist, I don't know what he was,

00:20:32.180 some expert, and he was saying that he has a strong suspicion, it's not confirmed,

00:20:36.960 but that the virus has already spread much farther than we know.

00:20:43.640 Now, if it's spread much farther than we know, the implication was that that's good news,

00:20:51.220 because it would suggest that the death rate of the virus is far smaller,

00:20:56.660 maybe even in the neighborhood of current regular flu.

00:21:00.580 But, that doesn't mean it's safer than the regular flu,

00:21:08.040 because there are two elements that make the flu dangerous.

00:21:12.620 One is how many people die if they have it,

00:21:16.440 and the other is how viral is it, how many people are going to get it,

00:21:20.540 how quickly does it spread.

00:21:22.000 And, if it's true that more people have it than we know,

00:21:26.500 that would suggest that the death rate is lower.

00:21:30.280 That's good news.

00:21:32.080 Wait a minute.

00:21:33.340 No, that's bad news.

00:21:35.480 Because that's just one variable.

00:21:38.040 That one variable, the statistic of how likely you will die if you get it,

00:21:42.740 is just one variable.

00:21:43.680 If ten times more people get it,

00:21:48.060 even if it's only the same amount of risk,

00:21:50.940 once you get it,

00:21:52.480 it's ten times worse.

00:21:55.320 And I think Tucker needs to make that clarification,

00:22:00.340 in the sense that that would be the more complete picture.

00:22:03.860 It feels like saying that,

00:22:06.660 let's say that this doctor's right,

00:22:10.040 and we study it,

00:22:10.860 and we find out that the number of people who die from this virus,

00:22:15.260 pretty much similar to every other virus anybody ever got,

00:22:19.380 you know, it's like 0.00,

00:22:21.660 is it 1%?

00:22:24.260 I forget what the percentage is.

00:22:26.240 But let's say it's the same,

00:22:27.620 but it's ten times more viral,

00:22:29.720 or six times more viral,

00:22:31.180 whatever it is.

00:22:31.700 We don't know how viral it is.

00:22:33.920 But let's not say that if it's more viral,

00:22:37.420 and more people have it without symptoms,

00:22:39.380 that therefore it's not as deadly.

00:22:43.060 Am I right about that?

00:22:45.460 That you have to know both?

00:22:47.800 All right.

00:22:48.260 We'll get to Candace.

00:22:50.180 I know you want to talk about Candace Owens.

00:22:54.020 All right.

00:22:55.900 I think that if we were to reopen the economy now,

00:23:01.000 now being in the next few weeks under some smart plan,

00:23:06.040 would people look back at this and say it was a mistake?

00:23:11.200 I know they will, right?

00:23:13.680 But let me suggest this.

00:23:15.020 I think you also have to look at the closing of the economy

00:23:19.260 as an insurance cost.

00:23:21.060 It's a gigantic insurance cost

00:23:23.980 against some larger, you know,

00:23:27.020 I guess number of deaths or whatever.

00:23:29.200 And I don't know that it was the wrong decision.

00:23:34.660 I don't know that it's the wrong decision.

00:23:38.480 Somebody is clarifying that the expert on Tucker's show last night

00:23:42.760 was a Stanford PhD doctor slash scientist.

00:23:46.800 So very qualified.

00:23:48.120 Let's say he's right.

00:23:49.020 It's still potentially dangerous.

00:23:52.500 So how many people,

00:23:53.960 what percentage of people get the regular flu?

00:23:57.020 In the comments,

00:23:59.560 so, yeah, somebody's helping me out with the percentage.

00:24:02.660 For the regular flu, it's 0.1%, not 1%.

00:24:06.440 It's 0.1%.

00:24:08.960 I believe that's right.

00:24:12.680 So how many people get the flu,

00:24:14.520 the regular flu in a regular year?

00:24:16.760 If you don't know that,

00:24:20.500 then maybe you don't know enough

00:24:22.500 to have an intelligent opinion

00:24:24.260 on whether we should go back to work.

00:24:26.660 Wouldn't you say?

00:24:27.620 Now, you could still decide if you knew that

00:24:29.420 that you want to go back to work.

00:24:30.580 But if you don't have that basic information,

00:24:33.480 you're a little bit blind about the basic data.

00:24:37.140 So let me give it to you.

00:24:40.740 In a typical year,

00:24:43.400 maybe,

00:24:45.160 well, I'll give you the 2009 year,

00:24:48.020 18% of the country got the swine flu.

00:24:52.000 18%.

00:24:52.520 Most of them didn't have any bad symptoms.

00:24:55.300 That's why that one wasn't as bad as others could be.

00:24:58.940 But do we think that if we did not mitigate the coronavirus,

00:25:05.900 do the experts say that the virality we're seeing from it

00:25:09.900 would only reach 18% of the country?

00:25:13.360 Is anybody saying that?

00:25:15.160 So is anybody saying that this one seems to be no more viral

00:25:19.020 than this worst case one?

00:25:21.800 Because 18% is actually worst case.

00:25:23.520 I think the actual percent is about 10%.

00:25:29.680 Yeah.

00:25:30.420 So the flu infects,

00:25:31.620 and this comes from WebMD, I think,

00:25:33.740 the flu, the regular flu,

00:25:36.080 gets 5% to 20% of the U.S. population every year.

00:25:39.880 5% to 20%.

00:25:41.200 And I saw another source that just took the middle ground

00:25:44.600 and says about 10% of the public gets it.

00:25:48.060 What percentage of the public

00:25:49.740 are the experts predicting we'll get the coronavirus?

00:25:53.520 Well, I've heard 60%, right?

00:25:59.280 Now, we don't know if that's true yet,

00:26:01.860 but if it's true that a regular flu

00:26:05.300 with a regular death rate gets,

00:26:08.320 let's just pick 10% for easy math,

00:26:11.280 gets 10% of the public,

00:26:13.580 and then 0.1% of them die,

00:26:17.480 that's one number.

00:26:18.760 But what happens if the percentage of the country

00:26:21.260 that gets it is 60%?

00:26:23.540 That's six times as many people getting it,

00:26:26.520 so even if the same percentage of die,

00:26:28.440 it's still six times more deaths.

00:26:31.020 How many people die per year from the regular flu?

00:26:34.760 Well, I saw two numbers,

00:26:38.700 and they're pretty different.

00:26:39.620 One said 36,000 deaths per year is normal,

00:26:42.360 and another one said that 8,000 to 20,000 deaths is normal,

00:26:46.240 which is a lot lower than 36,000.

00:26:48.120 And these both were credible sources,

00:26:50.640 so I don't know the difference.

00:26:52.280 I'm guessing that the difference

00:26:53.720 is how they calculated last year,

00:26:58.340 or 2018's flu,

00:26:59.460 because that was really, really big.

00:27:02.420 So the flu in 2017, 2018 killed 80,000 people

00:27:08.620 compared to something in the low,

00:27:11.840 you know, 10,000 or 20,000 normal.

00:27:13.320 And I think that the difference

00:27:15.920 between these averages,

00:27:17.780 one averaged 36,000 per year,

00:27:19.960 another one 8 to 20,

00:27:21.420 might be whether they counted that

00:27:23.120 as a normal year or something,

00:27:24.500 so that maybe they tossed out the outlier year

00:27:27.360 before they calculated the average.

00:27:28.940 Anyway, the point is,

00:27:30.100 let's take a midpoint,

00:27:31.420 let's say 20,000.

00:27:32.960 Let's say the average flu kills 20,000 people.

00:27:35.660 If it's six times worse,

00:27:37.820 that would be 120,000 people

00:27:39.420 without mitigation.

00:27:43.940 So did the model say that,

00:27:46.740 well, the model said that without mitigation

00:27:48.620 it would be more like a million,

00:27:50.440 so that still would be a problem with the models.

00:27:53.740 But would you be concerned

00:27:55.200 if the experts confirmed

00:27:57.520 that 120,000 people would die

00:28:00.280 if we all go back to work

00:28:01.640 and don't mitigate so much?

00:28:04.020 Would you be okay with that?

00:28:05.660 Going back to work?

00:28:06.440 If 120,000 people were going to die?

00:28:10.040 My reading of the public is yes.

00:28:12.720 My reading of the room is yeah.

00:28:15.020 If it were only 120,000 people,

00:28:17.400 if it were six times worse

00:28:19.600 than a regular flu,

00:28:22.040 I think the public would go back to work.

00:28:25.460 Right?

00:28:26.380 I'm not even sure anybody would disagree

00:28:28.080 with that statement.

00:28:31.620 But I would just like to fix the math

00:28:33.720 and say that you've got to figure

00:28:35.100 the virality

00:28:35.900 as well as the percentage

00:28:38.260 that die from it.

00:28:39.160 All right.

00:28:43.200 Let's see.

00:28:44.480 Did you know that a lot of the tests

00:28:47.800 for the coronavirus

00:28:49.360 are faulty?

00:28:51.640 I'm talking about the antibody tests,

00:28:54.000 not the tests to see if you have the virus,

00:28:56.560 but the tests to see if you once had the virus

00:28:59.180 and have recovered.

00:29:00.560 So the antibodies are after you've recovered.

00:29:03.580 Well, also while you have it,

00:29:05.080 but they're testing after you've recovered.

00:29:07.520 And so the FDA commissioner said

00:29:09.920 basically that some huge percentage

00:29:13.380 of those test kits for antibodies

00:29:16.400 don't work.

00:29:19.440 And one of the ways they don't work

00:29:21.760 is they don't distinguish

00:29:22.880 between the common cold

00:29:24.500 and the coronavirus,

00:29:25.800 the bad one,

00:29:26.700 because they're all in that family.

00:29:28.960 Now, have you seen,

00:29:31.120 you've seen numbers that say

00:29:32.500 that the people who have the antibodies

00:29:34.720 is probably much bigger than we know,

00:29:37.980 meaning that more people were infected.

00:29:39.720 How do we know how many people have antibodies

00:29:42.740 if the tests don't work?

00:29:44.760 Or at least they're not accurate

00:29:45.940 and we don't know how inaccurate they are.

00:29:48.120 So I would say that we're completely blind

00:29:50.460 at the moment

00:29:51.660 to how many people have had it

00:29:54.000 and recovered

00:29:54.540 and have the antibodies.

00:29:56.580 We just,

00:29:57.740 apparently the tests are just guessing

00:30:00.100 at this point.

00:30:05.880 Let's see.

00:30:06.560 Bill Gates has said

00:30:08.560 that halting the funding

00:30:09.940 to the World Health Organization,

00:30:11.440 which is what Trump has suggested

00:30:12.960 until they do some kind of a study

00:30:16.680 about what happened here.

00:30:19.700 So Bill Gates says

00:30:20.600 that's as dangerous as it would sound.

00:30:23.180 But I'm not going to disagree

00:30:25.660 with Bill Gates

00:30:26.620 because it does sound dangerous, right?

00:30:30.620 So Bill Gates says

00:30:31.500 that's as dangerous as it sounds.

00:30:33.760 And I think, well, he's right

00:30:35.080 because the World Health Organization

00:30:36.460 does a lot of things

00:30:38.620 that if they're doing them right

00:30:39.940 are quite valuable

00:30:41.060 or so people say.

00:30:42.800 So I don't think he's wrong

00:30:44.280 that it's dangerous.

00:30:45.460 But here's the part

00:30:46.520 where I think a little nuance

00:30:48.140 is important.

00:30:49.900 Do you think Trump

00:30:50.960 wants to get rid of

00:30:53.000 the World Health Organization?

00:30:55.000 Because I don't see anything like that.

00:30:57.920 Do you?

00:30:58.400 Do you think Trump

00:30:59.440 wants the World Health Organization

00:31:01.040 to disappear?

00:31:01.860 Do you think he wants

00:31:03.640 somebody else to fund it

00:31:05.180 and then keep operating

00:31:06.640 the way they are?

00:31:07.400 No, he doesn't want

00:31:08.020 any of those things.

00:31:09.140 It should be fairly obvious

00:31:10.520 that what Trump wants

00:31:12.560 is a change of leadership

00:31:13.700 and more accountability

00:31:15.240 and some assurance

00:31:18.440 that they're not being influenced

00:31:19.640 by China for the wrong reasons.

00:31:22.060 Now, you don't have to get rid

00:31:23.060 of the World Health Organization

00:31:24.320 to do that.

00:31:25.480 It's pretty obvious

00:31:26.380 who the leaders are.

00:31:28.540 Find out what the real story is

00:31:30.180 and get rid of them.

00:31:31.000 So I don't think

00:31:32.300 that you should see

00:31:33.680 Trump's withholding of funds

00:31:35.300 as anything but pressure

00:31:36.740 to have some accountability

00:31:39.660 and management.

00:31:40.640 That's different

00:31:41.220 than getting rid

00:31:41.820 of the World Health Organization.

00:31:43.860 So I wouldn't conflate those.

00:31:47.140 Let's talk about Candace Owens.

00:31:51.040 So Candace,

00:31:52.380 in her inimitable way,

00:31:54.160 knows how to be provocative

00:31:55.360 better than just about anybody

00:31:57.180 who isn't named Trump.

00:31:58.440 So let me start by saying

00:32:01.100 I'm a huge fan

00:32:02.080 of Candace Owens.

00:32:04.260 Met her once,

00:32:05.820 very warm,

00:32:06.840 very friendly.

00:32:08.160 I love the whole thing

00:32:09.340 she's doing.

00:32:10.820 So generally,

00:32:11.860 I'm on the same page with her.

00:32:15.900 But we've got

00:32:16.800 this interesting situation.

00:32:18.420 And as I've already said,

00:32:20.140 I just gave you my opinion

00:32:21.320 that we should probably

00:32:22.240 go back to work pretty soon.

00:32:23.320 So Candace is on the,

00:32:25.140 I would say,

00:32:26.880 on the more,

00:32:28.200 slightly more extreme

00:32:29.520 side of that view,

00:32:31.000 meaning that she thinks

00:32:33.220 the virus is overblown

00:32:34.620 maybe and we should

00:32:35.740 get back to work sooner.

00:32:37.920 I think that's her view.

00:32:39.360 I don't want to

00:32:39.860 mischaracterize it.

00:32:40.860 But I think she believes

00:32:42.780 the virus is overblown

00:32:44.380 and maybe the shutdown

00:32:46.140 was too much.

00:32:47.280 So she has this anecdote

00:32:48.580 which she tweeted about today.

00:32:50.560 And I will read it.

00:32:51.440 So Candace tweeted,

00:32:53.260 wow,

00:32:53.960 just had a police officer

00:32:55.660 called over to me

00:32:56.980 and my husband

00:32:58.100 at Whole Foods

00:32:59.000 because we were not

00:33:00.460 wearing masks.

00:33:02.420 We came to this

00:33:03.480 Whole Foods every day

00:33:05.340 in capitals,

00:33:06.680 every day.

00:33:07.720 Apparently,

00:33:08.280 beginning yesterday

00:33:09.060 is now illegal

00:33:09.940 to come in without a mask.

00:33:12.100 Total deaths in D.C.

00:33:13.740 from COVID,

00:33:15.060 69.

00:33:17.040 So you might imagine

00:33:18.820 that I think it was like

00:33:21.200 one of the top

00:33:21.880 trending hashtags,

00:33:24.520 the everyday thing.

00:33:26.680 And here's my take on it.

00:33:35.860 Well, so Candace's reason

00:33:39.360 is that there have been

00:33:40.520 69 deaths in D.C.

00:33:42.820 Now, she accurately

00:33:44.900 points out

00:33:46.560 that 69 deaths

00:33:48.980 in this big old city

00:33:50.260 is not a big amount.

00:33:53.160 But I tweeted back,

00:33:55.160 maybe Whole Foods

00:33:55.920 believes pandemics

00:33:56.980 can get worse

00:33:57.940 because of the viral part.

00:34:01.420 But I'm only guessing.

00:34:04.500 It's driving me nuts

00:34:06.480 to watch people

00:34:08.880 who largely agree with me

00:34:10.580 on a lot of stuff.

00:34:12.420 To act like the number

00:34:13.760 of people who have died

00:34:14.700 so far

00:34:15.500 is the important metric.

00:34:18.620 If you're looking

00:34:19.480 at the number of people

00:34:20.500 who died so far,

00:34:23.300 I don't think

00:34:25.460 you should be

00:34:25.900 in the conversation.

00:34:28.280 Now, I get that

00:34:29.360 if you were comparing it

00:34:31.180 to the model,

00:34:31.920 it would be accurate

00:34:32.640 to say,

00:34:33.280 oh, the model seems off.

00:34:34.940 But isn't the whole point

00:34:37.000 to prevent

00:34:38.180 the 69 people

00:34:39.460 who died

00:34:39.920 from turning into

00:34:41.340 69,000 people

00:34:42.740 who died?

00:34:44.120 Isn't that

00:34:44.600 sort of the point,

00:34:46.840 isn't it?

00:34:51.640 All right.

00:34:52.460 So,

00:34:53.320 and then

00:34:53.820 a lot of people

00:34:54.840 were honored

00:34:55.340 for about the

00:34:56.060 going to Whole Foods

00:34:57.000 every day

00:34:57.480 and without a mask.

00:34:59.860 And,

00:35:00.900 well,

00:35:01.400 I totally get

00:35:02.260 the freedom element

00:35:05.000 of it.

00:35:06.300 So,

00:35:06.640 I understand

00:35:07.260 if Candace

00:35:09.920 wants to go

00:35:10.840 to Whole Foods

00:35:11.480 during a pandemic

00:35:12.460 and not wear a mask,

00:35:14.640 a free country

00:35:16.080 suggests

00:35:17.680 she should be

00:35:18.300 allowed to do that.

00:35:20.360 And,

00:35:21.560 if the

00:35:22.460 coronavirus

00:35:24.060 was as bad

00:35:25.720 as the

00:35:26.300 first

00:35:27.020 impression,

00:35:28.980 then I would say,

00:35:30.280 Candace,

00:35:30.760 put a mask on,

00:35:31.920 get with the program.

00:35:33.560 But I would say,

00:35:34.380 you know,

00:35:35.180 as we've watched

00:35:35.900 the estimates

00:35:36.480 of deaths

00:35:37.020 come down,

00:35:37.680 et cetera,

00:35:38.700 and if you assume

00:35:40.040 it's going to be

00:35:40.640 in a few hundred thousand

00:35:41.820 and the country

00:35:44.400 is ready for that

00:35:45.440 under this condition,

00:35:47.440 I don't know.

00:35:48.200 I think Candace

00:35:49.560 is leaning

00:35:50.440 in the correct direction

00:35:51.600 of opening things up.

00:35:53.420 But I just don't like

00:35:54.600 any reference

00:35:55.280 to how many people

00:35:56.300 have died in the past

00:35:57.600 as a basis

00:35:59.120 for your decision

00:36:00.060 of what you do

00:36:00.780 in the future.

00:36:01.380 It doesn't make sense.

00:36:02.380 All right.

00:36:02.620 I asked

00:36:06.600 online

00:36:07.240 for people

00:36:08.380 to give me

00:36:09.380 an opinion

00:36:11.880 of what metric

00:36:13.300 they would see

00:36:14.840 that would convince

00:36:15.660 them the experts

00:36:16.560 were correct

00:36:17.400 that this is so bad

00:36:19.420 that we need

00:36:20.200 to close

00:36:20.960 the economy.

00:36:22.460 So what would

00:36:22.980 you have to see

00:36:23.780 to convince you?

00:36:25.420 Now,

00:36:25.660 Adam Townsend

00:36:26.420 came up with

00:36:27.240 a number

00:36:27.960 of 200,000.

00:36:29.200 and he had

00:36:30.740 some qualifiers

00:36:31.700 on there

00:36:32.220 so you'd have

00:36:33.620 to read his qualifiers

00:36:34.600 to really understand

00:36:35.520 the context.

00:36:37.020 But

00:36:37.200 that's a fair number.

00:36:40.540 I wouldn't argue that.

00:36:43.360 If somebody says,

00:36:44.300 yeah,

00:36:44.460 my number is

00:36:45.340 if this is all

00:36:46.660 said and done

00:36:47.340 and 200,000 people die,

00:36:49.680 I'm going to

00:36:50.360 rethink what I said

00:36:51.720 and think,

00:36:52.180 yeah,

00:36:52.300 maybe we should have

00:36:52.900 been more careful.

00:36:53.560 but if fewer

00:36:54.660 than 200,000 die,

00:36:56.860 I'm going to

00:36:57.520 stay with my opinion

00:36:58.500 that this was overblown

00:37:00.020 and closing the economy

00:37:01.400 was worse

00:37:02.060 than letting

00:37:02.980 those 200,000 people die.

00:37:05.080 So,

00:37:05.720 that's a fair opinion.

00:37:07.060 But I heard

00:37:07.420 another opinion

00:37:08.360 that was

00:37:09.640 so clever

00:37:11.400 that I thought

00:37:13.760 I would mention it.

00:37:15.100 So instead of

00:37:15.720 counting the number

00:37:16.500 of people who died,

00:37:17.880 because that gets

00:37:18.720 into the problem

00:37:19.440 of whether

00:37:20.040 they're coded correctly,

00:37:21.900 you know,

00:37:22.100 did they really die

00:37:22.900 from this?

00:37:23.700 And, you know,

00:37:24.260 what about all

00:37:24.740 the other factors?

00:37:25.660 And what about

00:37:26.020 the people who

00:37:26.560 didn't die

00:37:26.960 in car accidents

00:37:27.700 and the net

00:37:28.440 and all that?

00:37:29.660 And somebody suggested

00:37:31.720 that the way

00:37:32.300 to measure this

00:37:33.160 is in changes

00:37:33.980 in average

00:37:34.840 life expectancy.

00:37:36.860 And I thought,

00:37:37.880 that might actually

00:37:38.960 be pretty good.

00:37:40.760 Suppose you just

00:37:41.560 managed life expectancy,

00:37:44.380 right?

00:37:44.860 Because I think

00:37:45.820 what that does,

00:37:46.680 I haven't fully

00:37:47.340 thought this through,

00:37:48.600 but I think

00:37:49.080 what it does

00:37:49.600 is that

00:37:50.080 somewhat unintentionally

00:37:53.140 or maybe intentionally

00:37:54.440 puts a lower weight

00:37:58.180 on people

00:37:59.380 who are 80 years old

00:38:00.620 and dying,

00:38:01.220 right?

00:38:01.900 Because their life

00:38:02.620 expectancy

00:38:03.240 has already sort of

00:38:04.460 ran out.

00:38:05.560 But if somebody

00:38:06.400 young dies,

00:38:07.680 that changes

00:38:08.460 the average

00:38:09.040 of the life

00:38:09.580 expectancy more.

00:38:11.340 And I thought,

00:38:12.000 that is a really

00:38:12.760 clever thing

00:38:13.540 to measure

00:38:15.040 so that later

00:38:17.020 we could decide

00:38:17.860 did we do

00:38:18.380 a good thing

00:38:18.900 or a bad thing.

00:38:21.220 Am I right?

00:38:22.440 It's not the only

00:38:23.380 thing you would measure,

00:38:24.600 but wouldn't you

00:38:25.220 like to know

00:38:25.980 a year from now

00:38:26.860 did the average

00:38:27.760 life expectancy

00:38:28.740 in the United States

00:38:29.820 go up or down

00:38:31.540 this year?

00:38:32.600 I'd kind of like

00:38:33.420 to know that.

00:38:34.440 It's a very clever

00:38:35.320 way to look at it

00:38:36.080 and I don't know

00:38:36.500 why I never thought

00:38:37.240 of it,

00:38:37.800 but it does seem

00:38:38.520 like you also

00:38:39.980 want to count

00:38:40.460 the number of people,

00:38:41.540 you also want to

00:38:42.340 look at your percentages,

00:38:43.260 by the average

00:38:45.240 life expectancy

00:38:46.140 totally worth tracking.

00:38:48.640 That was a good idea.

00:38:49.720 All right.

00:38:53.460 So AOC

00:38:54.500 is,

00:38:56.520 according to

00:38:57.480 the woman 0.98

00:38:58.860 who,

00:38:59.240 Tara Reid,

00:39:00.040 the woman who 0.89

00:39:00.440 accused Joe Biden

00:39:01.340 of Me Too-ing her

00:39:02.520 back in the 90s,

00:39:04.740 she tweeted

00:39:06.200 that Alexandria

00:39:07.160 AOC

00:39:08.400 is literally

00:39:09.540 the first member

00:39:10.240 of Congress

00:39:10.760 to address publicly

00:39:11.940 what happened to her

00:39:12.900 when she worked

00:39:14.040 for Biden

00:39:14.480 and she thanked her.

00:39:15.980 And so I looked

00:39:16.720 and sure enough,

00:39:18.540 AOC,

00:39:21.260 love her or hate her,

00:39:23.520 I know you get

00:39:24.320 worked up

00:39:24.820 whenever I mention

00:39:25.480 your name,

00:39:26.440 love her or hate her,

00:39:28.880 she's the only Democrat

00:39:30.080 who decided

00:39:30.880 to be consistent.

00:39:33.940 It kind of tells me

00:39:35.140 she's going to run 1.00

00:39:35.800 for national office,

00:39:36.940 doesn't it?

00:39:37.420 you can already

00:39:40.200 see the hints

00:39:40.940 of it

00:39:41.340 where

00:39:42.740 that AOC

00:39:44.260 is taking

00:39:44.860 a principled,

00:39:46.720 consistent

00:39:47.240 stand

00:39:48.800 that women 0.97

00:39:50.000 need to be believed.

00:39:51.220 Now,

00:39:52.280 you could say

00:39:53.300 that's right

00:39:54.500 or wrong.

00:39:55.780 You could make

00:39:56.400 a good argument.

00:39:57.860 Well,

00:39:58.400 you can't really

00:39:58.840 make an argument

00:39:59.420 that women 0.97

00:39:59.840 shouldn't be believed.

00:40:00.920 but

00:40:02.660 who else

00:40:05.280 was consistent?

00:40:07.600 Right?

00:40:08.920 Is it not fair

00:40:10.040 to at least

00:40:10.580 give her credit

00:40:11.580 for being consistent?

00:40:13.500 I think that's

00:40:14.180 worth something

00:40:14.820 in public.

00:40:15.860 She's the only one

00:40:16.480 who was brave enough

00:40:17.300 to just come out

00:40:18.560 and say,

00:40:19.000 you know,

00:40:20.280 Biden's got a problem

00:40:21.260 there.

00:40:21.920 We should listen to her.

00:40:24.000 I give her credit.

00:40:25.260 All right.

00:40:25.500 while I

00:40:31.180 while I agree

00:40:32.020 we should probably

00:40:32.640 get back to work

00:40:33.440 in some smart

00:40:34.700 but quick way

00:40:35.760 and while I've

00:40:37.260 told you

00:40:37.680 I'm in a high risk

00:40:38.520 group

00:40:38.880 because I'm

00:40:39.440 over 60

00:40:40.200 I've got asthma

00:40:40.940 I would like

00:40:43.900 this additional

00:40:45.220 option

00:40:45.800 as a

00:40:47.800 consideration

00:40:48.360 to me

00:40:49.220 and people

00:40:50.600 in my situation.

00:40:52.660 So

00:40:52.900 I'll just

00:40:54.900 ask for this

00:40:55.680 and I don't

00:40:56.400 expect to get it.

00:40:57.760 I think it's

00:40:58.320 fair for me

00:40:59.040 to ask for this.

00:41:00.960 So

00:41:01.180 while I would

00:41:01.960 like the

00:41:02.540 20-somethings

00:41:03.960 and the 30-somethings

00:41:04.980 who don't have

00:41:05.540 a big risk

00:41:06.340 to go back

00:41:07.760 to work

00:41:08.200 and they

00:41:08.840 understand

00:41:09.300 that that

00:41:09.760 puts people

00:41:10.560 like me

00:41:10.920 at greater risk

00:41:11.700 because

00:41:12.000 there'd be

00:41:12.540 greater

00:41:12.880 spreading

00:41:13.580 there's one

00:41:16.120 thing I'd ask.

00:41:18.020 So

00:41:18.320 in order

00:41:18.780 for me

00:41:19.140 to be okay

00:41:19.880 and I'm

00:41:20.560 going to be

00:41:20.960 full-throated

00:41:22.460 okay

00:41:23.060 with the

00:41:24.440 younger people

00:41:24.980 who have

00:41:25.240 low risk

00:41:25.740 going back

00:41:26.280 to work

00:41:26.680 even though

00:41:27.140 it puts me

00:41:27.580 at higher risk

00:41:28.220 I'm not

00:41:29.600 even going

00:41:29.900 to qualify

00:41:30.440 it.

00:41:31.440 I'm okay

00:41:32.300 with it.

00:41:33.660 But

00:41:34.180 I just

00:41:34.620 ask one

00:41:35.120 thing

00:41:35.460 in return.

00:41:38.240 I'd like

00:41:38.920 to have

00:41:39.300 doctor-assisted

00:41:40.640 suicide

00:41:41.160 as an

00:41:42.200 option

00:41:42.480 because I

00:41:43.620 don't want

00:41:43.960 to experience

00:41:44.620 the last

00:41:45.260 two days

00:41:46.020 of drowning

00:41:47.440 in my own

00:41:48.120 lung juice.

00:41:50.020 That's all

00:41:50.660 I want.

00:41:51.000 now if

00:41:51.980 it's not

00:41:52.300 the last

00:41:52.740 two days

00:41:53.360 where it's

00:41:54.620 pretty clear

00:41:55.160 you're on

00:41:55.460 a ventilator

00:41:56.020 and you're

00:41:56.300 not going

00:41:56.560 to make

00:41:56.820 it

00:41:56.940 whatever

00:41:57.200 if it's

00:41:58.140 not that

00:41:58.500 I'm not

00:41:59.080 going to

00:41:59.280 kill myself

00:41:59.880 or have

00:42:00.940 assisted

00:42:01.400 suicide.

00:42:02.820 Now

00:42:02.980 California

00:42:03.480 allows you

00:42:04.160 to have

00:42:04.400 assisted

00:42:04.760 suicide

00:42:05.180 under the

00:42:06.280 right

00:42:06.500 conditions

00:42:07.080 and if

00:42:08.240 it's

00:42:08.940 definitely

00:42:09.300 terminal

00:42:09.860 and you've

00:42:10.460 got doctors

00:42:11.140 signing off

00:42:11.760 and stuff

00:42:12.140 and that's

00:42:12.840 all great.

00:42:13.820 I was

00:42:14.360 actually

00:42:14.680 active in

00:42:15.420 that movement

00:42:15.960 to get

00:42:17.360 that to

00:42:18.060 become the

00:42:18.780 law in

00:42:19.120 California.

00:42:19.580 many of you

00:42:20.720 don't know

00:42:21.080 that but

00:42:21.500 that was

00:42:22.140 one of the

00:42:22.840 things I

00:42:24.080 used my

00:42:25.760 persuasion

00:42:26.220 for publicly.

00:42:28.520 But it's

00:42:29.080 not set up

00:42:29.620 to be

00:42:29.980 efficient.

00:42:31.340 So in

00:42:31.580 other words

00:42:31.920 I can't

00:42:32.340 just be

00:42:32.820 in the

00:42:33.260 hospital

00:42:33.660 and say

00:42:34.640 look

00:42:35.040 before you

00:42:35.540 put me

00:42:35.800 on the

00:42:36.040 ventilator

00:42:36.520 here's

00:42:36.880 the deal

00:42:37.280 if it

00:42:38.120 looks like

00:42:38.480 I've got

00:42:38.800 less than

00:42:39.180 48 hours

00:42:40.080 and I'm

00:42:41.160 in a coma

00:42:41.600 can you

00:42:42.720 just kill

00:42:43.100 me?

00:42:43.380 I suppose

00:42:46.060 maybe if

00:42:47.320 you're

00:42:47.480 unconscious

00:42:48.060 and your

00:42:49.440 lungs stop

00:42:50.160 you don't

00:42:50.700 notice

00:42:51.100 maybe I

00:42:52.320 don't need

00:42:52.680 assisted

00:42:53.060 suicide

00:42:53.720 if I

00:42:54.120 could just

00:42:54.380 be

00:42:54.520 unconscious

00:42:54.940 when I

00:42:55.340 die.

00:42:56.340 I guess

00:42:56.840 I need

00:42:57.120 an expert

00:42:57.520 to tell

00:42:57.860 me that.

00:42:58.360 But that's

00:42:58.640 all I

00:42:58.960 ask.

00:42:59.820 All I

00:43:00.320 ask in

00:43:00.680 return

00:43:01.080 is that

00:43:02.220 it not

00:43:02.600 be painful.

00:43:04.080 That's

00:43:04.360 all.

00:43:05.400 If I

00:43:05.900 gotta go

00:43:06.320 I gotta

00:43:06.600 go.

00:43:07.120 If it's

00:43:07.380 time it's

00:43:07.780 time.

00:43:08.640 I'll do

00:43:09.020 what I

00:43:09.240 need to

00:43:09.520 do.

00:43:09.920 I'll

00:43:10.240 take that

00:43:10.940 hit for

00:43:11.340 the country.

00:43:11.800 I just

00:43:13.400 don't want

00:43:13.640 it to

00:43:13.820 hurt.

00:43:14.500 That's

00:43:14.660 all I

00:43:14.900 ask in

00:43:15.220 return.

00:43:19.000 Have

00:43:19.480 you

00:43:19.640 noticed

00:43:20.020 today

00:43:20.480 that

00:43:20.760 there's

00:43:21.080 a

00:43:21.360 spate?

00:43:22.340 An

00:43:22.520 absolute

00:43:22.900 spate

00:43:23.640 I tell

00:43:23.960 you.

00:43:25.200 Have

00:43:25.680 I ever

00:43:26.120 used

00:43:26.360 that

00:43:26.540 word

00:43:26.720 before?

00:43:27.180 A

00:43:27.320 spate?

00:43:28.160 Well

00:43:28.640 there's

00:43:28.900 a

00:43:29.060 spate

00:43:29.360 of

00:43:29.680 stories

00:43:30.320 about

00:43:30.840 maybe

00:43:32.080 hydroxychloroquine

00:43:33.400 and

00:43:33.960 its

00:43:34.360 little

00:43:35.020 brother

00:43:35.480 chloroquine

00:43:37.000 maybe

00:43:38.360 is

00:43:38.560 dangerous

00:43:39.000 and

00:43:39.460 maybe

00:43:39.660 doesn't

00:43:39.980 work.

00:43:40.920 Have

00:43:41.000 you

00:43:41.120 noticed

00:43:41.400 that

00:43:41.660 there's

00:43:41.860 a

00:43:42.040 whole

00:43:42.480 bunch

00:43:43.000 of

00:43:43.440 anecdotal

00:43:45.000 and

00:43:45.740 there's

00:43:46.300 this

00:43:46.460 little

00:43:46.680 study

00:43:47.140 but

00:43:47.440 it's

00:43:47.600 not

00:43:47.820 too

00:43:48.200 rigorous?

00:43:51.000 Have you

00:43:51.180 noticed

00:43:51.440 that?

00:43:51.720 It was

00:43:51.840 just

00:43:52.020 the last

00:43:52.620 48

00:43:53.120 hours?

00:43:54.100 A whole

00:43:54.520 bunch

00:43:54.820 of

00:43:55.020 different

00:43:55.420 stories?

00:43:56.660 Well

00:43:57.020 this

00:43:57.260 hydroxychloroquine

00:43:58.200 doesn't seem

00:43:58.780 to be

00:43:59.080 working.

00:43:59.480 It looks

00:43:59.640 like it

00:43:59.920 killed

00:44:00.120 people.

00:44:00.620 It took

00:44:00.780 people off

00:44:01.260 and it

00:44:01.440 killed.

00:44:02.340 Have

00:44:02.520 you

00:44:02.600 noticed

00:44:02.820 that?

00:44:03.980 Do

00:44:04.460 you

00:44:04.560 believe

00:44:04.760 it's

00:44:04.960 real?

00:44:06.940 Do

00:44:07.300 you

00:44:07.400 believe

00:44:07.620 it's

00:44:07.920 just a

00:44:08.940 genuine

00:44:09.360 coincidence

00:44:10.060 that there

00:44:10.680 are bunch

00:44:11.020 of

00:44:11.160 stories

00:44:11.620 that

00:44:12.400 used

00:44:12.660 to

00:44:12.820 be

00:44:13.020 100%

00:44:14.020 positive

00:44:14.540 and then

00:44:16.100 the last

00:44:16.520 48 hours

00:44:17.440 the stories

00:44:19.100 have really

00:44:19.600 turned to

00:44:20.220 more

00:44:20.380 negative?

00:44:21.460 Now you

00:44:21.920 might say

00:44:22.260 to yourself

00:44:22.620 well that's

00:44:23.020 because they've

00:44:23.460 done more

00:44:23.820 studies and

00:44:25.140 now we're

00:44:25.440 smarter.

00:44:25.780 but I

00:44:27.360 did see

00:44:27.880 online where

00:44:29.020 somebody was

00:44:29.580 criticizing a

00:44:30.540 couple of

00:44:30.920 studies that

00:44:31.500 came out

00:44:32.360 with some

00:44:32.640 negative

00:44:32.920 results and

00:44:34.820 pointed out

00:44:35.260 really obvious

00:44:35.980 flaws.

00:44:36.440 They weren't

00:44:36.660 scientific

00:44:37.080 studies at

00:44:37.800 all.

00:44:39.500 So here's

00:44:41.880 my caution

00:44:42.840 to you.

00:44:44.040 You should

00:44:44.640 expect the

00:44:45.660 very bad

00:44:46.340 people who

00:44:47.360 are trying

00:44:47.740 to disinform

00:44:48.980 on the

00:44:49.460 question of

00:44:50.180 hydroxychloroquine.

00:44:51.960 Now some

00:44:52.520 of it might

00:44:52.980 be that it's

00:44:53.760 being confused

00:44:54.420 with chloroquine

00:44:55.440 which does

00:44:56.660 have I

00:44:57.080 think more

00:44:57.540 side effects

00:44:58.620 and less

00:44:59.100 effectiveness.

00:45:00.560 So make

00:45:01.340 sure that

00:45:01.680 you're looking

00:45:02.000 at the

00:45:02.380 hydroxy

00:45:03.020 version not

00:45:03.980 the chloroquine.

00:45:05.660 That's the

00:45:06.060 first thing.

00:45:06.620 They try to

00:45:07.320 conflate them

00:45:08.280 to make them

00:45:08.800 sound like

00:45:09.200 they're both

00:45:09.520 bad.

00:45:10.300 Secondly look

00:45:11.040 at the

00:45:11.400 amount

00:45:11.900 they're giving

00:45:12.460 and they're

00:45:13.740 giving it to

00:45:14.300 people in the

00:45:14.840 last throes

00:45:16.180 of life.

00:45:17.820 So that's a

00:45:18.280 different calculation

00:45:19.400 than giving it

00:45:20.120 to somebody

00:45:20.480 early.

00:45:21.760 And they may

00:45:22.460 not know the

00:45:23.600 dose.

00:45:23.920 They might

00:45:24.400 just give

00:45:24.800 too much.

00:45:26.360 So that's

00:45:27.140 a possibility.

00:45:27.780 So I would

00:45:28.560 suspect that

00:45:29.400 foreign

00:45:30.800 disinformation

00:45:31.680 could be part

00:45:33.680 of this.

00:45:34.060 You could

00:45:34.280 have Chinese

00:45:34.940 bots and

00:45:35.720 Chinese studies

00:45:37.400 and stuff to

00:45:38.820 give you some

00:45:39.540 doubt about

00:45:40.020 this.

00:45:40.620 You could

00:45:41.020 imagine that

00:45:41.700 a pharmaceutical

00:45:42.500 company that

00:45:44.180 thinks it

00:45:44.640 might have

00:45:45.080 its own

00:45:45.620 right answer

00:45:46.240 that's a

00:45:46.660 different drug

00:45:47.160 that they

00:45:47.500 could make

00:45:47.800 billions of

00:45:48.280 dollars on.

00:45:49.200 They might

00:45:49.900 have a troll

00:45:50.640 or two on

00:45:51.200 the internet

00:45:51.600 if you know

00:45:52.080 what I mean.

00:45:52.460 So I

00:45:54.280 don't know

00:45:54.700 if you

00:45:55.020 could trust

00:45:55.840 the negative

00:45:57.560 stories coming

00:45:58.400 out about

00:45:58.980 hydroxychloroquine.

00:46:00.520 But let me

00:46:01.320 say as clearly

00:46:01.960 as possible,

00:46:03.040 you also

00:46:03.700 cannot trust

00:46:04.720 the positive

00:46:06.300 stories,

00:46:07.200 the ones that

00:46:07.640 say it

00:46:07.880 work,

00:46:08.300 because that's

00:46:08.740 not quite

00:46:10.240 proven.

00:46:11.680 So I would

00:46:13.140 say at this

00:46:13.540 point it's a

00:46:14.040 big question

00:46:14.420 mark.

00:46:14.600 when there

00:46:25.180 is more

00:46:25.500 people taking

00:46:26.120 it.

00:46:26.800 Yeah, and

00:46:27.240 the thing

00:46:27.820 that I'm

00:46:28.120 seeing that

00:46:28.700 is the

00:46:29.140 big red

00:46:29.600 flag for

00:46:30.340 this being

00:46:30.760 misinformation

00:46:31.320 is that

00:46:32.700 we're getting

00:46:33.100 reports that

00:46:33.880 people are

00:46:34.240 having heart

00:46:34.820 failure on

00:46:36.200 the drug.

00:46:37.820 Now, at

00:46:39.740 least these

00:46:40.460 drugs have

00:46:40.880 been around

00:46:41.280 a long

00:46:41.840 time.

00:46:42.440 do you

00:46:43.840 think that

00:46:45.100 only people

00:46:45.880 who have

00:46:46.180 coronavirus are

00:46:47.120 having heart

00:46:48.560 problems?

00:46:50.120 Because

00:46:50.440 somebody in

00:46:53.300 the comments

00:46:53.740 is saying if

00:46:54.300 you have a

00:46:54.600 heart condition

00:46:55.240 then you

00:46:55.780 need to

00:46:56.140 take

00:46:56.380 remdesivir.

00:46:58.200 And I

00:46:58.420 would think

00:46:58.760 that everyone

00:46:59.360 who's

00:46:59.900 elderly and

00:47:02.120 on a

00:47:03.340 ventilator or

00:47:04.220 near it

00:47:04.680 probably has

00:47:06.040 a heart

00:47:06.320 condition.

00:47:08.100 So,

00:47:09.560 but it's

00:47:10.480 still important

00:47:11.000 if it's

00:47:11.340 killing them.

00:47:12.440 more

00:47:14.360 successful if

00:47:15.220 you take

00:47:15.540 it earlier.

00:47:16.700 We don't

00:47:17.180 know that.

00:47:18.580 That's the

00:47:19.360 speculation that

00:47:20.700 has not been

00:47:21.400 demonstrated,

00:47:22.920 but certainly

00:47:23.500 anecdotally that

00:47:26.820 seems to be

00:47:27.300 the case.

00:47:29.520 You searched

00:47:30.420 so that you

00:47:31.120 could have a

00:47:31.560 talking point

00:47:32.200 to persuade

00:47:32.820 us,

00:47:34.560 only heard

00:47:35.100 it from

00:47:35.460 you.

00:47:36.880 I don't

00:47:37.140 know what

00:47:37.340 you're talking

00:47:37.660 about.

00:47:37.900 that's

00:47:43.060 why we

00:47:43.400 reserve

00:47:43.720 opinions.

00:47:44.780 Well,

00:47:45.020 you know,

00:47:45.320 the doctors

00:47:45.860 who said

00:47:46.620 we know

00:47:48.560 this drug

00:47:49.180 doesn't have

00:47:49.980 many side

00:47:50.600 effects,

00:47:51.120 at least

00:47:51.460 if you're

00:47:51.840 not,

00:47:52.220 you know,

00:47:52.500 in the

00:47:52.780 last two

00:47:53.260 days of

00:47:53.600 your life

00:47:53.900 it doesn't

00:47:54.240 have side

00:47:54.560 effects.

00:47:55.240 So it's

00:47:55.860 just a

00:47:56.160 good risk

00:47:56.600 reward

00:47:57.060 to give

00:47:58.600 it a try

00:47:59.160 based on

00:47:59.960 the anecdotal

00:48:00.600 evidence.

00:48:01.560 So there's

00:48:02.000 nothing wrong

00:48:02.420 of that.

00:48:05.920 What's

00:48:06.360 taking so

00:48:06.960 long to

00:48:07.440 know?

00:48:08.000 Exactly.

00:48:09.720 Exactly.

00:48:10.500 Why is this

00:48:11.160 taking so

00:48:11.820 long?

00:48:12.520 Because it

00:48:12.960 seems to

00:48:13.340 me there

00:48:13.720 are a

00:48:14.040 number of

00:48:14.420 tests or

00:48:15.140 a number

00:48:15.460 of,

00:48:15.880 yeah,

00:48:17.040 trials.

00:48:18.000 I feel like

00:48:18.960 there are a

00:48:19.320 number of

00:48:19.680 trials that

00:48:20.200 have gone

00:48:20.500 longer than

00:48:21.100 10 days.

00:48:22.660 And don't

00:48:23.100 you know

00:48:23.400 in 10

00:48:23.740 days?

00:48:24.660 I mean,

00:48:25.040 you'd know

00:48:25.360 more in

00:48:26.080 15 days,

00:48:27.300 but don't

00:48:28.280 you know

00:48:28.760 in 10

00:48:29.160 days?

00:48:30.540 I don't

00:48:31.020 know.

00:48:32.420 Do I

00:48:34.320 periscope

00:48:34.800 on my

00:48:35.200 phone or

00:48:35.920 computer?

00:48:36.820 Right now

00:48:37.400 I'm

00:48:37.640 periscoping

00:48:38.180 on an

00:48:38.620 iPad,

00:48:39.620 and I'm

00:48:40.400 going to

00:48:40.600 start doing

00:48:41.180 some special

00:48:43.720 content on

00:48:44.600 my phone,

00:48:46.240 mostly when

00:48:47.580 I'm moving

00:48:47.900 around.

00:48:48.700 So I'll

00:48:48.980 be producing

00:48:49.480 some extra

00:48:50.460 content on

00:48:50.960 my phone.

00:48:53.260 You said

00:48:54.060 you would

00:48:54.420 insist on

00:48:55.080 it if you

00:48:55.640 were infected.

00:48:57.220 No,

00:48:57.540 my position

00:48:58.060 hasn't changed

00:48:58.780 because I'm

00:49:00.300 not 80.

00:49:00.940 I don't

00:49:01.220 have a heart

00:49:01.680 problem.

00:49:02.420 And I

00:49:03.140 don't know

00:49:03.520 that it

00:49:03.820 works,

00:49:04.720 but the

00:49:05.920 risk-reward

00:49:07.200 is worth

00:49:07.860 a shot.

00:49:15.820 Please look

00:49:16.700 up Newt

00:49:17.480 Witkowski.

00:49:19.100 I probably

00:49:19.620 won't do

00:49:20.080 that,

00:49:20.760 but you

00:49:21.060 can send

00:49:21.420 me a

00:49:21.660 link.

00:49:23.580 The

00:49:23.820 slaughter

00:49:24.140 meter,

00:49:24.680 where is

00:49:24.980 the

00:49:25.120 slaughter

00:49:25.400 meter?

00:49:26.400 Have

00:49:26.580 you seen

00:49:27.280 Joe Biden?

00:49:29.220 How could

00:49:33.700 President Trump

00:49:34.380 lose to

00:49:34.900 Joe Biden

00:49:35.440 unless

00:49:35.820 something new

00:49:36.540 happens

00:49:37.060 between now

00:49:38.320 and Election

00:49:40.200 Day?

00:49:41.140 How could

00:49:42.200 Joe Biden

00:49:42.660 possibly win

00:49:43.560 the election?

00:49:45.440 I suppose if

00:49:46.240 he really liked

00:49:46.980 whoever he

00:49:47.380 picks for

00:49:47.780 vice president,

00:49:48.720 but I

00:49:48.900 wouldn't

00:49:49.020 count on

00:49:49.400 that.

00:49:49.560 how many

00:49:56.140 are taking

00:49:56.580 it and

00:49:57.120 die without

00:49:57.780 a doctor's

00:49:58.440 approval?

00:49:58.820 I do

00:49:59.940 wonder about

00:50:00.520 that.

00:50:07.380 I kept

00:50:08.100 trying to

00:50:08.460 make some

00:50:08.820 kind of a

00:50:09.280 comedy

00:50:09.660 routine

00:50:10.180 about

00:50:10.680 WHO,

00:50:12.360 the World

00:50:13.140 Health

00:50:13.360 Organization,

00:50:14.180 and

00:50:14.400 President Xi.

00:50:17.100 I know

00:50:18.000 you could

00:50:18.320 make an

00:50:18.760 Abbott and

00:50:19.200 Costello

00:50:19.600 out of

00:50:19.920 that.

00:50:23.300 Hanks was

00:50:24.020 cured by

00:50:24.780 hydroxy,

00:50:26.860 and now

00:50:27.120 they're

00:50:27.260 trashing it.

00:50:27.780 We don't

00:50:28.080 know that.

00:50:29.180 First of

00:50:29.820 all, I

00:50:30.000 think they

00:50:30.280 used

00:50:30.520 chloroquine,

00:50:31.260 not

00:50:31.400 hydroxychloroquine,

00:50:32.720 but fact

00:50:33.260 check that.

00:50:34.260 Secondly,

00:50:35.700 we don't

00:50:36.320 know that

00:50:36.960 Rita Wilson's,

00:50:38.960 we don't

00:50:39.900 know that

00:50:40.200 all of her

00:50:40.660 symptoms were

00:50:41.360 the side

00:50:41.760 effects.

00:50:42.200 It could

00:50:42.380 have been

00:50:42.580 the symptoms

00:50:43.040 from the

00:50:43.720 coronavirus

00:50:44.900 itself.

00:50:48.440 Boris

00:50:48.960 Johnson

00:50:49.400 apparently

00:50:49.880 did not

00:50:50.780 take

00:50:51.340 chloroquine.

00:50:55.320 So I

00:50:56.100 don't know

00:50:56.400 if that's

00:50:56.780 public.

00:50:57.380 I heard

00:50:58.980 that

00:50:59.160 privately,

00:50:59.900 so maybe

00:51:01.620 I'm

00:51:01.820 breaking

00:51:02.080 news.

00:51:02.980 I think

00:51:03.300 I'm

00:51:03.440 breaking

00:51:03.700 news.

00:51:05.100 But I

00:51:05.940 heard from

00:51:06.360 somebody who

00:51:08.440 has some

00:51:08.860 connection to

00:51:09.480 Boris Johnson

00:51:10.120 that he

00:51:11.460 did not

00:51:11.920 take the

00:51:12.500 hydroxychloroquine

00:51:13.580 because it

00:51:15.240 was not

00:51:15.840 nationally

00:51:18.060 recommended and

00:51:19.560 he didn't want

00:51:20.060 to be the

00:51:20.360 one who

00:51:20.860 went against

00:51:22.020 the national

00:51:22.660 recommendations.

00:51:23.280 I don't

00:51:24.600 have a

00:51:25.000 second

00:51:25.400 source for

00:51:25.960 that.

00:51:27.080 But I'm

00:51:27.440 telling you

00:51:27.900 that I

00:51:29.760 heard it

00:51:30.060 privately

00:51:30.480 that Boris

00:51:31.840 Johnson did

00:51:32.460 not take

00:51:32.900 those drugs.

00:51:34.020 So I

00:51:34.580 would say

00:51:34.860 that needs

00:51:35.240 a fact

00:51:35.620 check,

00:51:36.320 but I

00:51:37.120 heard it

00:51:37.380 from a

00:51:38.140 reliable

00:51:38.560 source.

00:51:39.940 All right.

00:51:42.020 That's all I

00:51:42.660 got for now.

00:51:44.280 I will talk

00:51:45.140 to you

00:51:45.420 tonight.

00:51:46.160 You know

00:51:46.460 when.

00:51:47.800 See you

00:51:48.300 then.

00:51:48.440 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 15, 2020

Episode 914 Scott Adams： The Best Simultaneous Sip EVER is Right Here

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