Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 920 Scott Adams： Predicting the Next Chapter in the Virus Saga

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in it's been 11 hours since the last time i was with you

00:00:14.980 and i think that's too long yeah it's time there's not much happening today so i'm gonna

00:00:21.660 take some questions it's been groundhog day every day you wake up and you say do we still

00:00:27.540 have a coronavirus yep looks like it's gonna be another one of those days but this one will

00:00:34.160 start out a little bit better than many because you're going to be taking the simultaneous sip

00:00:39.980 with me and all you need is a cup or mug or a glass a tank or chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask

00:00:46.240 a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the

00:00:52.620 unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called

00:00:56.460 the simultaneous sip but it happens now

00:00:58.840 delicious so let's talk about the things that are happening

00:01:10.220 um so face there's a little uh test of facebook users so facebook users were uh offered 102 dollars

00:01:21.920 if they would just give up facebook for a little while and then they tested to see how they did

00:01:27.500 it turns out that giving up facebook is really good for your health so the people were uh reported

00:01:36.740 improved subjective well-being so apparently we now have at least a little bit of scientific data

00:01:44.060 that says facebook's bad for your health did you uh somebody says cpap not respirators work

00:01:53.940 if you have a link for that send it to me because i think i know what you're talking about but i don't

00:02:00.040 know if it's true so we need a fact check somebody saying that the cpap machines might be better than

00:02:05.160 the ventilators which i don't rule out as possible because the ventilators were considered maybe not the

00:02:12.820 be all end all and they might have been the wrong pressure and all that stuff

00:02:17.440 yeah why why 102 dollars i don't know it's a good question

00:02:23.340 um so you've heard about the the patients who had coronavirus and then they recovered

00:02:31.580 but then some number of them maybe two percent show that they have the infection still

00:02:37.260 and so the researchers say what you're supposed to have antibodies you're not supposed to be able to

00:02:43.020 get reinfected but here's the good news turns out you shouldn't be as worried about that as maybe you

00:02:51.160 were because there's at least one scientist doctor researcher types who thinks there should not be a

00:02:58.520 source of worry and here's his argument because there are several possible explanations

00:03:03.880 explanations of why these people are testing positive and of these several possible explanations

00:03:09.700 most of them are harmless for example there could be remnants of the virus that are still in people

00:03:16.340 and the test is sensitive so it picks it up but a remnant of the virus would not be you know something to

00:03:22.700 worry about doesn't mean you have the virus it just means you have some of the garbage from the virus a 0.67

00:03:27.440 little left over so that's one possibility uh the other possibilities were let's say um

00:03:34.760 just an error with the test so it could be that the test is too sensitive meaning it's too good

00:03:41.500 so it's picking up more than the virus is picking up the debris from the virus but the other is that the

00:03:47.160 test is just not perfect so maybe if the test has some false positives

00:03:51.780 um you might be thinking you're retesting people that are positive again but not although it seems

00:03:58.940 like that would be the easiest one to test right

00:04:01.300 who would get out here and make a long comment about it being boring just to get blocked what's the

00:04:10.880 point of that all right um and there may be other issues with the test so here's my current updated

00:04:20.920 opinion i had been thinking that this herd immunity wasn't wasn't really guaranteed it's still not

00:04:28.300 guaranteed so there's still questions to be answered but uh at least one one researcher scientist who's

00:04:36.580 close to this thinks we shouldn't even worry about it that that we'll have immunity so even if two

00:04:45.240 percent of the people or even if some people didn't have immunity uh there's probably enough people

00:04:51.640 who do to get herd immunity eventually but other people warned hey it's not so easy this isn't like

00:04:58.460 a regular virus you could get it and recover but it might take years for your organs to recover

00:05:04.680 so apparently this is pretty bad stuff you know you could get better but it might take you years to

00:05:11.400 actually be better that's pretty ugly so we'll keep an eye on that um now the anti-trump media

00:05:20.540 broadly speaking they they don't have much material to work with lately because it's not a normal time

00:05:28.400 and the president keeps taking the advice of experts which is ruining all the fun

00:05:33.100 every time the president takes the the advice of experts and the experts back them up

00:05:38.180 it just takes all the fun out of the anti-trump people because they're like

00:05:42.160 you keep not following x okay you're taking the experts advice but but the next time you're not

00:05:48.120 following the experts okay this time you're also taking the experts advice but we're gonna get you

00:05:52.900 we're gonna get you one of these days and so far the president has definitely stayed on the right

00:05:59.500 side of at least science so he's agreeing with the experts at least to that degree so we're watching

00:06:06.360 the anti-trump press uh desperately trying to find things to criticize the president for because

00:06:12.940 that's their business model if they don't criticize the press their their audience will go somewhere

00:06:17.780 else so they have to they have to criticize the president so here's what they've come up with today

00:06:23.660 they've decided to bunch up unrelated things and try to make a story out of it so they've bunched

00:06:30.360 together dr drew dr oz and dr phil now i i'd love to know what dr drew thinks about that

00:06:38.520 or any of them i guess what they think about being lumped together but the the unfairness of that

00:06:45.320 to lump three completely different people with three completely different situations together

00:06:51.480 uh that's not fair that is so not fair uh and so uh so this was on uh uh was this where was this

00:07:04.400 this was on uh cnn and this was the headline fox news keeps inviting tv doctors on air who say crazy

00:07:11.380 crazy things crazy things which were the crazy things i i'm not sure what crazy means all right so dr drew

00:07:21.820 as i had apologized for underplaying the seriousness of the virus but keep in mind he was underplaying it

00:07:30.040 when the greatest experts in the world were telling us not to be that worried so dr drew correctly you

00:07:39.160 know upgraded his opinion apologized for getting it wrong in the beginning but he wasn't that far from

00:07:45.600 the experts it's not like it's crazy it's only it only looks crazy if you're looking at it you know in

00:07:51.720 the rearview mirror and you take out the context the context at the time was a lot of people were on the

00:07:58.460 same page who who were experts uh then there's the dr oz one is this crazy dr oz suggested that children

00:08:07.280 would be a safe class of people to go back to school and of course that's a key to getting people

00:08:14.340 you know the adults to go back to work because you need the kids to be taken care of essentially

00:08:18.740 but he worded it wrong so he just worded it wrong and so the people were looking for trouble

00:08:25.620 they they heard it the way they wanted to hear it and it sounded like he was being

00:08:29.520 cold about the possibility of children dying now you don't have to have a very high iq to know that

00:08:39.400 dr oz did not go on television and say something cold about children dying okay that just didn't

00:08:46.660 even happen but of course they twist his words until until it sounds like maybe he said something

00:08:52.040 like that if you squint really hard and reduce your iq by 50 so first of all dr oz was just talking

00:08:58.860 about tough choices somebody's got to go first right you can't send the parents to work and leave 0.59

00:09:05.880 the kids at home if they're young kids so he's just making an adult observation that you'd want to do it

00:09:13.420 in you know a certain order and this might be a good order and that's it there's nothing crazy about

00:09:18.260 that at all but they turned it into that then dr phil was really just guilty of the most universal

00:09:24.300 bad comparison in the world of you know regular flu or or other other problems that are not viral to

00:09:31.540 this one but and that that was just um bad analysis but it's the same bad analysis that's practically

00:09:40.700 universal so which parts of these were crazy these were three people who had three opinions but

00:09:47.640 none of it's crazy it's not even close to crazy so that's all they got for that apparently japan is

00:09:55.640 having a a new surge in covet 19 cases and i only point that out because people had used them as an

00:10:04.320 example of people who got it under control easily and therefore maybe it wasn't such a big problem

00:10:10.800 because hey look japan took care of it so easily well it turns out japan did not take care of it so

00:10:16.400 easily because it's surging again we hope they get that under control but we are we're definitely

00:10:21.920 learning stuff by watching other countries and what they're doing um huffington post uh again not

00:10:29.600 having enough fodder to work with so you know they need to criticize trump and anybody on his side

00:10:35.740 so here's what they came up with listen to how bad this headline is all right so here's the headline

00:10:43.140 for the huffington post right wing economist has been accused of racism before all right if you hear

00:10:49.920 the if you see this headline that a right wing economist has been accused of racism before

00:10:56.700 what do you think of that guy well you think he's definitely a racist right you don't even have to read

00:11:03.500 the story you're like well if he's been accused of racism before even if this one isn't true maybe the

00:11:10.660 other one is and maybe if the other one wasn't true probably this one is and you know what are the

00:11:16.300 odds that one person would get accused of racism twice unless there's something there you know a

00:11:21.200 little smoke there's fire sort of thing so that's how the huffington post you know plays their slander

00:11:28.020 they they give you a headline where it leads you to believe there's got to be something here

00:11:33.760 i mean there's there's some meat here so let's dig into this right and uh who was it was it uh

00:11:42.280 steve morton uh the economist who uh is a trump supporter and this is what he's in trouble for

00:11:51.060 so remember the headline he's been accused of racism before so that headline suggests that this story

00:12:00.240 is an accusation of racism right because the headline is he's been accused of racism before

00:12:06.940 how else can you interpret that then this story is about his potentially being racist right so let's

00:12:13.740 dig in what was he doing that was so racist this time that would remind you of that last time

00:12:20.240 all right here's what he did he was talking about the uh the social distance protesters who are protesting

00:12:26.740 having to stay home in those states where they don't think it's a bigger problem and here's what

00:12:31.720 he said i call these people modern day rosa parks they are protesting against injustice and loss of

00:12:39.560 liberties oh uh steven moore i'm sorry i had his name wrong steven moore and uh

00:12:45.640 and i don't know how to interpret that sentence i call these people modern day rosa parks

00:12:53.200 except as a very big compliment rosa parks is there any other way to interpret this

00:13:02.620 other than a gigantic compliment and respect respect and admiration for rosa parks now in uh you could

00:13:15.140 certainly argue that it's silly to compare these um these protesters to rosa parks but

00:13:21.340 if i told you let's say i said you know um so and so is the michael jordan of i don't know being a

00:13:30.900 senator if i said somebody was the michael jordan of being a senator would you say oh my god that's a

00:13:39.320 little racist no you would say the whole reason you're using michael jordan is because you know

00:13:46.980 arguably is the greatest of all time it is literally a sign of admiration and respect

00:13:53.480 for the person used as the example the michael jordan of you know being a i don't know a dry

00:14:00.680 cleaner or whatever likewise if you're going to use somebody as your symbol of like the ultimate

00:14:07.480 respected you know credible person that's really the opposite of racism like that's as that's as

00:14:16.640 far as you can get from being racist holding up you know somebody who is like the you know one of

00:14:25.360 the greatest icons of the african-american experience you know somebody universally respected

00:14:31.580 for being the you know the the the unknown person who changed the world how in the world

00:14:38.560 is this racist it can't be further from racist it literally can't be further

00:14:45.960 it's just mind-boggling but how many people read the what the huffington post and read that and go

00:14:53.860 yep yep it looks like he's insulting rosa parks by comparing her to people who showed up with ar-15s

00:15:01.900 in this state oh my god what is wrong with people um i was looking for changing the topic here i was

00:15:12.140 looking for uh some deadlines on the states you know i'd said before early on when the whole topic of

00:15:20.280 closing stuff down came up i had said that the president needs to give us a date because even if

00:15:26.500 that day gets later revised we're all more comfortable with a date now he gave that uh april 15 date then

00:15:35.320 you have to revise it and i think maybe that that felt like an embarrassment or uh you know a mistake

00:15:42.400 i don't think it was i think it was exactly the right thing to do even though it got revised

00:15:48.300 because remember from the start i said you should have a date even if you know you're going to revise it

00:15:54.980 because the public needs to needs to focus on something even if it's changed and um i'm

00:16:04.740 uncomfortable having the states all make their decisions because the longer um the longer we go

00:16:11.520 i mean they obviously they have to be involved in the decision but i'd like them to come up with an

00:16:17.360 opening time much sooner even if it changes because having having a date in your head

00:16:24.940 makes it way easier to manage your isolation you know imagine being in isolation and not knowing

00:16:32.240 when it's going to end versus being in isolation and knowing that in nine days it's over those are

00:16:38.620 not the same one of them can make you crazy and the other is like ah i'll just find some way to keep

00:16:45.600 busy for nine days and i'll be good it's a completely different mindset and we're experiencing

00:16:50.360 as much as we're experiencing a health crisis and an economic crisis it's a psychological crisis

00:16:56.660 too and the psychological part you know informs the rest of it as well so i think to get the

00:17:03.280 psychology right we need some kind of dates that we can argue about plan for feel bad about you know

00:17:10.220 just interact with we just we just need a little bit of solidness and dr chris murphy murray

00:17:16.640 who is one of the modelers you know one of the big models he was on i think it was cnn and he was

00:17:24.360 talking about uh generally what he thought for reopening dates so he thought that maybe a state

00:17:30.600 like hawaii that has the least covid problems so far uh he was thinking that maybe the first part of

00:17:37.080 may like may 1st or so they might start opening up but that the worst hit places the hot spots might be

00:17:43.880 middle of june and he sees a lot of other stuff in the middle you know mid to late may now that's the

00:17:52.260 first time i saw anybody give a an estimate who knew what they were talking about and even though you

00:17:58.620 could say well those models are incorrect i don't really care that the models are incorrect

00:18:04.240 i care that i had a estimated time and so i could look at those times it's like okay we're not i'm in

00:18:11.920 california so we're not as good as hawaii but we're not as bad as new york so that would put us in

00:18:18.020 that middle zone you know mid may maybe but we're california so maybe we'll be a little more aggressive

00:18:24.860 and staying close but it looks to me like that at least bounds it i'm feeling like mid to late may

00:18:34.280 would be a california time uh so that makes me feel better and i wish that i wish that the task force

00:18:43.520 would do something similar which is to say in public each of your states will be different

00:18:49.560 but it's going to be somewhere between may 1st and we think june 15th you know if you're hot spot it's

00:18:55.940 the latter if you're not it's the former and everybody else is going to be somewhere in that middle

00:19:00.180 ground that would make a big difference to the psychology uh here's an interesting factoid kim

00:19:07.580 jong-un has not been seen in a week oh and apparently there have been at least a few events

00:19:14.160 that he typically would always be to because he has some some kind of a traditional value in

00:19:22.860 north korea something about his relatives etc and so he's conspicuously missing it's obvious

00:19:29.480 it's obvious that there's some kind of choice or inability to be in public so the speculation is

00:19:35.840 anything from um he's uh he was trying to put some distance between himself and the events because

00:19:44.300 the events were about his family and he wants to be his own person well i doubt that i don't think

00:19:48.920 that explanation the other one was they're just trying to keep him safe because they don't want

00:19:53.120 him around other people because he might get covid i think that's possible here's the other possibility

00:19:58.800 kim jong-un is exactly the kind of person who dies from coronavirus am i right now uh you know i want

00:20:10.800 to say this as delicately as possible but kim jong-un does not look like the uh the symbol of good

00:20:18.440 health he's got some issues i don't know what they are it might be diabetes but he's he's certainly

00:20:23.520 got some weight issues and lots of you know rumors about other issues so at the very least i think he

00:20:30.400 smokes although that may be good we don't know smoking could be good or bad we'll have to wait and see

00:20:35.780 but if kim jong-un got coronavirus i feel like he wouldn't make it

00:20:43.440 at least the odds wouldn't be that good well i guess even let's see at his age at his age even if he's

00:20:52.940 not super healthy i think actually he would mostly survive right um so in you know in theory he would

00:21:03.400 he would survive even if he got it but uh you do wonder if there's anybody in his circle or anywhere

00:21:12.580 anybody anywhere china let's say who might want to slip him a little coronavirus just

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Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 18, 2020

Episode 920 Scott Adams： Predicting the Next Chapter in the Virus Saga

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