Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 21, 2020


Episode 926 Scott Adams： Join Me to Ease Into a Great Night of Sleep. Yes, I am That Boring.


Episode Stats

Length

29 minutes

Words per Minute

145.06297

Word Count

4,331

Sentence Count

229

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

Joe Biden hasn t been seen in 3 days, AOC celebrates the collapse in oil prices, and we talk about the Coronavirus and whether or not it could be the end of the world as we know it.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Come on in here. It's time for the evening relaxation.
00:00:17.400 It's like a slippery, delightful slide in which you slide into a good night's sleep.
00:00:25.380 Yep, I am that uninteresting tonight. You'll be drifting off to sleep. So good.
00:00:35.080 I have to show you this scene over here. Hold on.
00:00:39.700 View. That's Boo the cat standing behind my circle light.
00:00:46.540 Hey, Boo. She knows we're watching her.
00:00:50.920 All right. For those of you who are. That was the least of least useful thing that ever happened.
00:01:00.460 All right. Let's talk about some things that happened. First of all, let me check in.
00:01:05.080 Can I get a fact check? How long has it been since we saw signs of life from Joe Biden?
00:01:11.600 Can somebody give me a read on that? Because I don't think he was around today, right?
00:01:18.780 And is that three days in a row?
00:01:22.620 Can somebody give me a fact check on that?
00:01:25.460 Has anybody seen Biden on video or even, I don't know, a phone call in the last three days?
00:01:33.680 Because if not, I think it's already the end of the road.
00:01:40.900 That would be my guess.
00:01:43.240 If it's true that it's been three days without seeing him, then he's already decided or he's in the process of deciding to get out of the race.
00:01:55.020 Thursday, somebody says, the last time we saw him.
00:01:57.260 All right. Well, I'll keep looking at your comments in case somebody saw something.
00:02:05.480 Here's something I've been trying to figure out.
00:02:08.600 Does all of this business with the coronavirus.
00:02:14.820 Okay. Most people say three days.
00:02:17.640 Does the business with the coronavirus make it more likely or less likely that we'll have a green new deal?
00:02:23.520 Do you think it'll be more likely or less likely?
00:02:29.520 I think AOC had a tweet today that was celebrating the collapse of oil prices.
00:02:35.580 And it was a, let's say it was an inelegant tweet that I believe she got rid of it.
00:02:42.260 But I'm trying to figure out what happens to the green new deal.
00:02:48.480 If all the demand for oil goes away, the, you know, there's no commuting.
00:02:55.400 Is it possible that the coronavirus solved climate change?
00:03:02.040 That's not impossible, right?
00:03:04.100 Because I don't know if you've, you know, looked down at the streets, if you've left your house or anything,
00:03:09.480 but there's not much traffic happening right now.
00:03:12.140 And you know what?
00:03:14.200 All the traffic that is happening is essential.
00:03:19.540 And here's a big question I'm wondering.
00:03:22.260 I'm wondering if people will just decide that they didn't need all the stuff they had before.
00:03:27.540 And here's the theory behind that.
00:03:31.080 Have you ever heard of the theory of baseline happiness?
00:03:33.240 It's the idea that you're sort of set in how happy you can be,
00:03:38.560 even if conditions in your life get really good, you don't get much happier.
00:03:44.700 And if things are really bad, yeah, you do get, you get sad if things are really bad,
00:03:48.980 but it doesn't last that long.
00:03:50.760 You know, a year later or whatever, after, let's say, a death in the family or something,
00:03:54.460 you tend to drift back to whatever happiness level is your baseline.
00:04:00.140 And we all have a different baseline.
00:04:01.600 So I'm wondering if people are discovering that they've been in lockdown long enough
00:04:08.300 that even though nobody would choose it, probably nobody would choose it except introverts.
00:04:15.880 It's pretty good times for introverts.
00:04:18.100 I have to admit, being an introvert, I'm getting through this a lot better than most of you.
00:04:26.440 But I'm wondering if people will realize that their happiness level didn't change as much
00:04:33.420 as they assumed it would.
00:04:35.320 Because if I said to you, I'm going to take away all of your freedoms,
00:04:39.180 and you'll have to just stay in the house,
00:04:42.040 and, you know, you'll have to worry about everything,
00:04:45.560 you'd say to yourself, well, there's no way I'm going to be as happy.
00:04:48.520 And if I asked you, you'd probably say you're less happy,
00:04:52.780 because you have more stress and uncertainty, and those things are real.
00:04:56.960 But I'll bet you there's way less of a change than anybody would have predicted.
00:05:04.140 I'll bet that a lot of people are just getting through it just fine.
00:05:08.240 Now, the people who are literally worrying about eating are not getting through it fine.
00:05:13.960 But I'll bet you a lot of people are.
00:05:21.000 I would like to give a shout-out to the task force
00:05:25.780 for satisfying my need for good explanations of where we are on test kits.
00:05:34.560 Now, as you know, I've just been railing and railing about the task force
00:05:40.060 not giving us useful information because it's out of context.
00:05:43.860 They were just giving us random numbers and stuff.
00:05:46.980 10,000 ventilators, 15,000 masks, and we couldn't tell, is that enough?
00:05:52.480 Is that too much?
00:05:53.980 And then we ended up with triple the number of ventilators,
00:05:57.420 partly because the projections were overcooked,
00:06:00.600 but partly I think also because we didn't have good visibility
00:06:04.520 of who could do what and how fast and what we would need and all that.
00:06:08.960 But if I had to give a grade to the administration for ventilators,
00:06:15.320 let's say we're just separating the report card
00:06:17.860 and we say, you know, ventilators,
00:06:22.580 I think I'd give them an A-plus for ventilators
00:06:25.260 because given that the requirements of the government
00:06:29.660 were pretty much, in my opinion, the requirements were
00:06:35.540 at all costs, don't let anybody die because they didn't have a ventilator.
00:06:40.120 And if that means making too many of them,
00:06:42.780 I think that was the choice that we made.
00:06:45.120 So the fact that we made too many and we have to give it away,
00:06:48.300 I think you just have to say that's a home run
00:06:51.140 because they started making them in the context of thinking
00:06:55.180 that they might actually need them.
00:06:56.920 And if we have too many, well, that's good news.
00:06:58.860 So I'd give them an A-plus on ventilators.
00:07:00.640 Actually, very impressive.
00:07:02.980 It also looks like we're not going to run out of anything else,
00:07:06.800 as far as I can tell.
00:07:09.320 So that looks pretty good, too.
00:07:12.160 Looks like we won't run out of anything.
00:07:15.140 But I was always unhappy with not knowing it as it happened.
00:07:20.100 Now, the testing facilities are the other big wild card.
00:07:26.060 And I felt that until today,
00:07:28.080 we were not getting any information that was useful
00:07:30.860 in terms of the public saying,
00:07:33.900 oh, it looks like we'll get out of this in a month or a week or whatever.
00:07:38.320 It seemed like we needed to know where we were on testing
00:07:40.780 because that was the base of it all.
00:07:43.180 But the task force did a great job today.
00:07:44.980 They brought out some young guy, Brad,
00:07:48.560 and somebody who just nailed it.
00:07:51.500 And the whole time he was talking, I kept thinking,
00:07:53.780 where have you been hiding this guy?
00:07:56.520 This guy was perfect.
00:07:57.580 He seemed to have a complete command of where we were
00:08:01.760 with test kits and supplies and stuff.
00:08:04.740 And then the other folks, I don't remember all their names,
00:08:08.120 but the generals and the admirals and stuff.
00:08:10.880 And I thought they did a really good job of breaking it down,
00:08:15.700 what's where.
00:08:17.640 And it took a while to get the distinction
00:08:21.480 that sometimes they were talking about the test facility
00:08:25.120 and sometimes they were talking about the physical supplies
00:08:28.800 that you need to put a sample in and send it to the lab.
00:08:32.600 So it looks like we were in better shape.
00:08:36.320 We're in good shape in terms of test facilities and machines.
00:08:40.940 And they seem to be everywhere you would need them,
00:08:42.920 all over the states.
00:08:44.800 And we're in less good shape,
00:08:47.360 or at least have been, on the supplies,
00:08:51.600 the swabs and stuff.
00:08:53.480 But it looks like, you know,
00:08:54.720 if you believe the task force report,
00:08:57.180 it looks like we're very, very quickly
00:08:59.640 going to get a good handle on that.
00:09:01.500 But the bottom line,
00:09:02.860 which the president and the task force said,
00:09:05.860 is that the states already have
00:09:08.100 enough to do testing to get to phase one.
00:09:12.800 And that seems like the minimum requirement.
00:09:16.460 If you have enough to get to phase one,
00:09:19.160 and that's what we're all shooting for,
00:09:20.600 it's not perfect.
00:09:22.020 You know, we'd all like to have way more tests.
00:09:24.420 But it turns out, even if you had,
00:09:26.680 I forget who said this,
00:09:27.800 but it sounded smart,
00:09:29.560 that even if you had way, way more tests,
00:09:32.860 you would still be so far away
00:09:35.140 from having enough tests to just test everybody
00:09:37.860 that you really couldn't get there.
00:09:40.940 But if you did test everybody,
00:09:42.560 how often do you have to retest?
00:09:45.040 You know, so somebody was pointing out
00:09:47.940 that you really can't get so many tests
00:09:50.600 that you just like nail it down
00:09:52.200 because you've tested the crap out of it.
00:09:54.240 That's sort of an impractical goal.
00:09:55.860 I don't know if that's true,
00:09:57.480 but somebody smart said that.
00:09:59.120 But rather, you go for whatever's the weakest,
00:10:03.580 you know, biggest leverage,
00:10:05.180 the best leverage,
00:10:07.120 and I guess I believe this,
00:10:09.360 is testing the people
00:10:10.940 who are in the same environment
00:10:12.860 with people who are infected.
00:10:14.680 So first responders and nursing home people.
00:10:17.940 Then somehow,
00:10:18.920 somehow that's going to be
00:10:19.900 the best targeted use of the tests.
00:10:21.980 I hope that's enough.
00:10:25.160 But I would say this was the best,
00:10:28.780 I think the best task force report,
00:10:33.580 and in my opinion,
00:10:35.000 showed a great deal of competence.
00:10:37.560 Now, my favorite part about it
00:10:39.220 was when,
00:10:42.400 I think it was CNN,
00:10:44.480 correspondent,
00:10:46.520 asked the question of Mike Pence
00:10:48.160 and said,
00:10:48.720 hey, if you say
00:10:50.020 that the states have
00:10:51.460 all the testing that they need,
00:10:53.480 why did the governor of Maryland
00:10:55.200 have to go to South Korea
00:10:56.520 to get,
00:10:57.580 to try to buy supplies?
00:10:59.780 And,
00:11:00.400 now the first thing you need to know
00:11:02.240 is that the supplies
00:11:03.180 they were buying
00:11:03.920 were the part that wasn't
00:11:05.320 short supply.
00:11:07.300 It was only the testing facilities
00:11:09.580 that are quite generously
00:11:11.560 everywhere
00:11:12.180 and have lots of capacity.
00:11:14.420 So the governor was talking
00:11:16.380 about supplies
00:11:17.400 that they got from South Korea
00:11:18.960 and so CNN asked that question
00:11:22.120 and Pence says,
00:11:24.140 can you put up the Maryland map?
00:11:26.220 And within seconds,
00:11:27.640 there's this big visual aid
00:11:29.400 of all the testing centers
00:11:30.920 in Maryland.
00:11:32.180 And if you weren't following along
00:11:34.460 and you didn't know
00:11:35.200 that the question
00:11:36.480 was more about the supplies
00:11:37.880 than it was the testing facilities,
00:11:40.320 it looked like Pence
00:11:42.980 just totally dunked on her.
00:11:44.420 And then he sort of
00:11:45.580 changed the subject
00:11:46.320 and she didn't follow up.
00:11:48.640 I don't know if she
00:11:49.440 didn't understand
00:11:51.200 that he wasn't really
00:11:53.240 answering her question directly.
00:11:55.380 But in any event,
00:11:57.540 it looks like even Maryland
00:11:59.040 got some supplies.
00:12:00.680 So I think,
00:12:01.960 I think everybody's okay.
00:12:04.200 So there's that.
00:12:06.560 But I,
00:12:07.100 I guess I was impressed
00:12:09.780 because you don't see somebody
00:12:11.120 using a PowerPoint slide deck
00:12:13.020 that effectively.
00:12:14.420 where somebody asks a question
00:12:15.900 and you just slap this map up there
00:12:17.640 and you're like,
00:12:18.640 next question,
00:12:19.820 even though it didn't really
00:12:20.620 answer her question.
00:12:23.980 All right.
00:12:24.800 what's up with oil prices?
00:12:27.960 What is up with oil prices?
00:12:32.700 I don't even know how to understand
00:12:34.760 oil prices.
00:12:36.640 Obviously,
00:12:37.240 it's very temporary
00:12:37.980 because almost immediately
00:12:39.920 the,
00:12:40.620 you know,
00:12:41.220 the supply will,
00:12:42.280 will change.
00:12:43.420 So I would assume
00:12:44.260 it'll,
00:12:44.580 it'll drift back up.
00:12:45.960 But man,
00:12:47.380 what are the odds
00:12:50.980 that you're in the airline business
00:12:52.840 and fuel goes to
00:12:55.300 so cheap
00:12:56.400 that it would be
00:12:57.100 the best time
00:12:57.740 to be in the airline business
00:12:59.080 except,
00:13:00.620 oops,
00:13:01.300 can't be in the airline business either.
00:13:02.840 So here's a,
00:13:09.060 I don't want to ask that question.
00:13:12.160 Oh,
00:13:12.560 so Ken Burns,
00:13:15.140 PBS is releasing
00:13:16.420 a whole bunch of
00:13:16.980 Ken Burns films
00:13:18.180 for teachers and students
00:13:20.520 to,
00:13:21.120 to use for the
00:13:23.440 online history courses,
00:13:24.700 which is like
00:13:26.040 the best idea ever
00:13:27.280 because
00:13:28.440 this is really where
00:13:29.920 online education is going.
00:13:32.020 It's going to be like
00:13:32.780 a Hollywood production
00:13:33.760 so that when you're
00:13:35.480 watching it at home,
00:13:36.400 it's way better
00:13:37.040 than being in a class
00:13:38.060 and listening to a boring teacher
00:13:40.040 and listening
00:13:41.060 or watching the
00:13:42.320 Ken Burns
00:13:43.140 history movies
00:13:45.680 are really good.
00:13:47.800 I mean,
00:13:48.100 that's,
00:13:48.660 that's a pretty solid way
00:13:50.600 to teach history
00:13:51.720 if you ask me.
00:13:53.200 So I think,
00:13:54.060 I think you're going to see
00:13:55.020 free college.
00:13:56.620 There will be free college
00:13:59.220 but it will be
00:13:59.780 online college.
00:14:01.140 All right,
00:14:01.380 so
00:14:01.620 here's a
00:14:04.680 question for you.
00:14:06.380 I know just enough
00:14:07.800 about economics
00:14:08.800 to
00:14:10.140 be confused
00:14:11.520 about stuff.
00:14:13.340 Why is everybody
00:14:14.220 saying
00:14:14.680 Kim Jong-un
00:14:15.800 has some issues?
00:14:18.160 Is there some news
00:14:18.860 about Kim Jong-un
00:14:19.700 that I'm missing?
00:14:20.860 Because I just
00:14:21.720 looked at the news
00:14:22.540 before I turned it on.
00:14:23.500 And I didn't say
00:14:23.960 anything about that.
00:14:25.580 All right,
00:14:25.820 so here's the
00:14:26.440 question.
00:14:28.420 If the
00:14:29.160 20%
00:14:30.280 of the people
00:14:31.020 who are unemployed
00:14:31.860 in rough terms
00:14:34.420 are probably,
00:14:36.240 or for the most part
00:14:37.080 they're the people
00:14:37.740 at the lower end
00:14:39.000 of the economic
00:14:39.800 spectrum.
00:14:41.240 And there's still
00:14:42.020 a lot of cubicle
00:14:42.820 dwellers
00:14:43.540 and millionaires.
00:14:44.780 people are reporting
00:14:48.320 that Kim Jong-un
00:14:49.400 is actually
00:14:49.940 so that's really
00:14:51.260 a thing
00:14:51.720 unless this is
00:14:53.140 the greatest prank
00:14:53.960 ever because
00:14:54.540 you're all
00:14:54.900 saying the same
00:14:56.100 thing.
00:14:57.240 All right,
00:14:57.460 let me check it
00:14:57.980 in real time.
00:14:58.920 I literally
00:14:59.400 just
00:14:59.780 oh,
00:15:02.160 whoa,
00:15:03.500 grave danger
00:15:05.020 after surgery.
00:15:06.880 What do we
00:15:07.580 know about that?
00:15:08.480 You all know
00:15:09.140 more than I do
00:15:09.680 about that.
00:15:11.040 So there was
00:15:11.860 a speculation
00:15:12.580 because he wasn't
00:15:13.380 in public
00:15:14.020 and it's
00:15:15.960 tightly controlled
00:15:16.700 so we don't
00:15:17.260 know.
00:15:20.580 So it's
00:15:21.240 basically rumors
00:15:22.200 which doesn't
00:15:25.620 mean it's not
00:15:26.100 true but
00:15:27.460 how does
00:15:28.040 anybody know?
00:15:29.740 All right,
00:15:30.120 so he had a
00:15:31.500 cane,
00:15:31.920 he had a cyst
00:15:32.460 removed from
00:15:33.040 his ankles
00:15:33.660 and somebody
00:15:35.060 says it's easy
00:15:35.780 to be wrong
00:15:36.380 on this one
00:15:36.860 said,
00:15:37.600 yeah,
00:15:38.460 so some
00:15:39.160 experts said
00:15:39.800 it's easy
00:15:40.220 to be wrong
00:15:40.780 on this
00:15:41.080 one.
00:15:45.360 So I
00:15:46.820 wouldn't bet
00:15:47.640 on Kim
00:15:48.420 Jong-un
00:15:49.080 being brain
00:15:51.800 dead but
00:15:52.740 we'll see.
00:15:55.280 We'll see.
00:15:57.120 Anyway,
00:15:57.540 here's the
00:15:58.020 thought experiment.
00:15:59.240 If the people
00:15:59.900 who mostly
00:16:00.560 are unemployed
00:16:01.360 were also
00:16:02.480 the ones
00:16:03.000 who unfortunately
00:16:04.020 were the lowest
00:16:04.880 end of the
00:16:05.420 economic
00:16:05.920 system,
00:16:07.880 how much
00:16:09.720 money do
00:16:11.940 we still
00:16:12.380 have in
00:16:12.780 the system
00:16:13.280 should we
00:16:13.800 get back
00:16:14.200 to work
00:16:14.580 in a month
00:16:14.980 or so?
00:16:16.040 How much
00:16:16.520 money would
00:16:17.000 we still
00:16:17.420 have to
00:16:18.940 start
00:16:19.440 stimulating
00:16:20.040 demand?
00:16:21.540 So if you
00:16:22.000 assume that
00:16:22.540 there was
00:16:23.700 20%
00:16:24.260 unemployment,
00:16:25.340 so let's
00:16:25.980 just say
00:16:26.320 that 20%
00:16:27.000 of the
00:16:27.220 public
00:16:27.500 really is
00:16:28.400 just flat
00:16:28.980 broke.
00:16:29.340 broke and
00:16:30.720 they'd be
00:16:31.140 lucky to
00:16:32.540 get back
00:16:33.000 on their
00:16:33.320 feet and
00:16:33.860 just sort
00:16:34.420 of break
00:16:34.800 even,
00:16:35.480 but they're
00:16:35.900 not going
00:16:36.220 to be
00:16:36.420 generating
00:16:36.900 any kind
00:16:37.520 of demand
00:16:38.820 by buying
00:16:40.140 a lot of
00:16:40.540 extra stuff.
00:16:42.340 So the
00:16:42.640 people who
00:16:43.340 lost,
00:16:43.720 here's where
00:16:44.120 I'm going
00:16:44.400 with this,
00:16:45.220 the people
00:16:45.620 who lost
00:16:46.200 their jobs,
00:16:47.520 while it's
00:16:48.020 a big,
00:16:48.680 scary,
00:16:49.240 horrible
00:16:49.620 number and
00:16:50.460 a tragedy
00:16:51.260 by any
00:16:52.540 description,
00:16:54.500 it also
00:16:55.100 is not
00:16:55.720 a large
00:16:56.760 part of
00:16:57.420 the total
00:16:57.940 amount of
00:16:58.500 money in
00:16:59.580 the country
00:17:00.120 that drives
00:17:01.620 demand.
00:17:02.880 Is it?
00:17:03.980 So this is
00:17:04.900 sort of a
00:17:05.320 statement slash
00:17:06.160 question because
00:17:06.960 I'm a little
00:17:07.340 uncertain if
00:17:08.220 I'm missing
00:17:08.640 something big,
00:17:09.820 but you know
00:17:10.240 we talk
00:17:10.660 endlessly about
00:17:11.420 the top
00:17:12.460 1%
00:17:13.280 owning most
00:17:14.600 of the
00:17:15.020 wealth.
00:17:16.800 And let's
00:17:17.180 say the
00:17:18.100 top 20%
00:17:19.320 owns 80%
00:17:21.160 of the
00:17:21.400 wealth.
00:17:22.580 I don't
00:17:22.840 know,
00:17:23.060 what are
00:17:23.500 the exact
00:17:23.900 numbers,
00:17:24.360 top 30%,
00:17:25.360 pick a
00:17:25.900 number,
00:17:26.700 the point
00:17:27.480 will be the
00:17:27.940 same.
00:17:28.500 And the
00:17:30.540 point is
00:17:31.860 this,
00:17:32.760 that at
00:17:33.280 the top,
00:17:34.120 the people
00:17:34.500 who had
00:17:34.900 all the
00:17:35.220 wealth,
00:17:36.180 even if
00:17:36.740 their wealth
00:17:37.200 is compressed
00:17:37.860 by a
00:17:38.340 third,
00:17:39.620 I think
00:17:40.060 that roughly
00:17:40.560 is what
00:17:40.980 will happen
00:17:41.320 to me.
00:17:42.200 So I
00:17:42.440 think my
00:17:42.940 net worth
00:17:43.560 is probably
00:17:44.040 down by
00:17:44.460 a third.
00:17:45.500 But probably
00:17:46.100 not enough
00:17:46.660 to radically
00:17:48.240 change my
00:17:49.200 normal
00:17:50.300 consumer level.
00:17:52.040 I'm going
00:17:52.560 to get as
00:17:52.940 many haircuts
00:17:53.720 and probably
00:17:55.800 go out to
00:17:56.260 dinner the
00:17:56.940 same amount.
00:17:58.100 So the
00:17:58.320 point is,
00:17:59.340 if the
00:17:59.720 people at
00:18:00.200 the top,
00:18:01.080 even though
00:18:01.460 they had a
00:18:02.560 great contraction
00:18:04.000 in their
00:18:04.460 wealth,
00:18:04.960 just like
00:18:05.340 everybody else,
00:18:06.400 they still
00:18:07.100 have plenty
00:18:07.500 left.
00:18:08.780 So as
00:18:09.620 soon as
00:18:10.000 they can
00:18:10.560 buy things,
00:18:12.240 do they
00:18:12.740 not have a
00:18:13.480 lot of
00:18:13.720 money to
00:18:14.100 go buy
00:18:14.500 things?
00:18:14.860 If it's
00:18:15.500 true that
00:18:16.480 the people
00:18:16.840 at the
00:18:17.180 top always
00:18:18.560 had all
00:18:18.880 the money
00:18:19.200 anyway.
00:18:21.140 So here's
00:18:22.740 the question.
00:18:23.500 when we
00:18:24.720 assume that
00:18:25.760 the economy
00:18:26.880 might turn
00:18:27.960 into a
00:18:28.360 depression,
00:18:29.780 you could
00:18:30.240 break that
00:18:30.700 down to
00:18:31.720 specific
00:18:33.400 problems like
00:18:34.200 credit and
00:18:36.040 being able
00:18:36.560 to eat,
00:18:38.380 right?
00:18:39.480 I mean,
00:18:39.780 the thing
00:18:40.120 that will be
00:18:40.620 broken when
00:18:41.320 we get back,
00:18:44.080 I don't think
00:18:45.020 it will be
00:18:45.380 just demand.
00:18:47.360 Because I
00:18:47.680 think demand
00:18:48.200 might come
00:18:48.640 back faster
00:18:49.200 than you think
00:18:49.720 because the
00:18:50.360 people with
00:18:50.780 money still
00:18:52.120 have some.
00:18:53.000 At least
00:18:53.480 they have
00:18:53.720 enough to
00:18:54.260 drive demand,
00:18:55.640 I would
00:18:55.820 think.
00:18:56.920 But the
00:18:57.560 big problem
00:18:57.980 is that so
00:18:58.560 many people
00:18:59.040 are going
00:18:59.300 to be
00:18:59.560 behind in
00:19:00.700 bills and
00:19:01.800 mispayments.
00:19:03.140 But I
00:19:03.700 think we
00:19:04.100 can solve
00:19:04.620 that.
00:19:05.660 It seems
00:19:06.240 to me that
00:19:07.860 we would
00:19:08.320 be able to
00:19:09.460 fairly cleverly
00:19:11.480 solve the
00:19:12.400 credit problem
00:19:13.120 either by
00:19:13.680 making exceptions
00:19:14.540 or saying,
00:19:15.820 hey,
00:19:16.100 everybody who
00:19:16.680 went through
00:19:17.000 this,
00:19:17.400 just push
00:19:17.800 all of your
00:19:18.280 bills ahead
00:19:19.500 three months
00:19:20.240 and we'll
00:19:21.960 if that
00:19:22.980 causes some
00:19:23.620 company to
00:19:24.320 go bankrupt,
00:19:25.300 we'll backstop
00:19:25.940 it for a
00:19:26.300 while.
00:19:26.600 There's
00:19:26.780 probably some
00:19:27.240 clever ways
00:19:27.840 we can
00:19:28.180 work through
00:19:29.500 it.
00:19:31.360 But I
00:19:32.300 am expecting
00:19:32.840 that we
00:19:34.640 might come
00:19:36.380 out of it
00:19:36.880 way better,
00:19:38.900 way better
00:19:39.860 than the
00:19:40.680 most optimistic
00:19:41.780 predictions.
00:19:44.240 And I
00:19:44.480 think it
00:19:44.880 could be
00:19:45.180 because of
00:19:45.640 that.
00:19:46.480 Because
00:19:46.680 nothing's
00:19:47.480 broken.
00:19:48.280 Now here's
00:19:48.720 the other
00:19:49.000 thing that
00:19:49.520 I think
00:19:50.540 could not
00:19:51.220 be modeled.
00:19:51.960 So when
00:19:52.980 the prediction
00:19:53.460 models are
00:19:54.180 figuring out
00:19:54.820 how bad
00:19:55.760 things are
00:19:56.140 going to
00:19:56.320 be,
00:19:56.860 here's
00:19:57.200 something
00:19:57.460 that
00:19:57.700 can't
00:19:58.040 be
00:19:58.200 modeled.
00:19:59.760 The
00:19:59.940 effectiveness
00:20:00.540 of our
00:20:01.200 communications
00:20:02.120 in 2020.
00:20:04.380 In 2020,
00:20:06.280 anybody who
00:20:07.040 knows anything
00:20:07.840 that's important
00:20:09.200 to help on
00:20:09.960 the pandemic,
00:20:11.260 if it's
00:20:12.060 known anywhere,
00:20:13.500 it's pretty
00:20:14.600 much immediately
00:20:15.280 known everywhere
00:20:16.060 because good
00:20:17.480 ideas spread
00:20:18.480 pretty quickly.
00:20:19.120 and so
00:20:20.360 because of
00:20:22.180 our good
00:20:22.540 communication,
00:20:23.280 we have
00:20:23.460 a society
00:20:24.080 that is
00:20:25.300 super
00:20:26.060 self-healing.
00:20:28.540 So you
00:20:28.820 could take
00:20:29.580 almost anything
00:20:30.400 and throw it
00:20:31.000 into this
00:20:31.500 big ball
00:20:32.560 of civilization
00:20:33.440 and it
00:20:34.460 could break
00:20:35.260 just crazy,
00:20:37.060 just break
00:20:37.560 stuff,
00:20:38.420 break your
00:20:38.880 whole economy,
00:20:39.920 destroy buildings,
00:20:40.980 everything.
00:20:41.240 But as
00:20:42.160 long as
00:20:42.640 the humans
00:20:44.020 still could
00:20:44.820 communicate,
00:20:46.480 our ability
00:20:47.360 to use that
00:20:48.060 communication
00:20:48.700 to quickly
00:20:49.500 adapt and
00:20:50.180 make plans
00:20:50.800 and move
00:20:51.200 resources and
00:20:51.980 stuff is
00:20:53.400 somewhat
00:20:54.500 breathtaking.
00:20:55.980 So I
00:20:58.040 think our
00:20:58.500 recovery doesn't
00:20:59.640 account for
00:21:00.480 how well we
00:21:01.760 communicate and
00:21:02.980 that it creates
00:21:03.600 almost a super
00:21:04.500 being with
00:21:05.180 self-healing
00:21:05.820 powers and
00:21:07.660 how much
00:21:08.320 money there's
00:21:08.860 still left and
00:21:09.720 the people who
00:21:10.280 will drive
00:21:10.720 demand like
00:21:12.400 they probably
00:21:12.880 usually do
00:21:13.540 because people
00:21:14.400 who didn't
00:21:14.840 have money
00:21:15.300 weren't driving
00:21:15.820 a lot of
00:21:16.180 demand.
00:21:17.520 All right.
00:21:19.180 I tweeted
00:21:19.800 an article
00:21:21.860 by an
00:21:22.660 MD,
00:21:23.240 Peter
00:21:23.560 Attia,
00:21:24.400 A-T-T-I-A,
00:21:26.160 if you want
00:21:26.460 to look for
00:21:26.920 him.
00:21:28.040 He's
00:21:28.300 Peter
00:21:28.740 Attia
00:21:29.620 MD on
00:21:31.200 Twitter.
00:21:32.360 And it
00:21:32.820 was a really
00:21:33.320 good article
00:21:34.100 and I'll
00:21:34.580 try to
00:21:34.900 capture the
00:21:35.460 gist of
00:21:36.060 it.
00:21:37.040 And he
00:21:38.400 was trying
00:21:38.780 to figure
00:21:39.260 out if
00:21:39.760 there's
00:21:39.960 some way
00:21:40.360 we could
00:21:40.780 tell now
00:21:42.460 or ever
00:21:43.020 whether what
00:21:45.060 we experienced
00:21:45.840 was that the
00:21:46.480 models were
00:21:47.180 all wrong
00:21:47.860 or that we
00:21:49.940 were super
00:21:50.500 effective in
00:21:51.960 mitigating.
00:21:52.880 Like why is it
00:21:53.600 that the models
00:21:54.160 were so wrong?
00:21:55.160 Because we
00:21:55.860 were so good
00:21:56.560 or the models
00:21:57.200 were so wrong
00:21:57.980 or is it a
00:21:59.160 little bit of
00:22:00.200 both and if
00:22:01.060 so, which is
00:22:02.200 the dominant
00:22:02.680 part?
00:22:03.700 Real important
00:22:04.420 to know that,
00:22:05.000 right?
00:22:05.400 I mean, we
00:22:05.880 really, really
00:22:06.640 want to know
00:22:07.240 that.
00:22:08.200 And he
00:22:08.720 suggests that
00:22:09.560 we can
00:22:10.060 actually know
00:22:10.780 that someday
00:22:11.380 because when
00:22:12.620 we can test
00:22:14.400 enough, and
00:22:15.340 we're not
00:22:15.620 there yet,
00:22:16.620 but I think
00:22:17.160 we'll reasonably
00:22:17.900 get there,
00:22:18.700 maybe, you
00:22:19.260 know, two
00:22:19.980 months or
00:22:20.400 something,
00:22:21.020 we should be
00:22:21.920 able to
00:22:22.700 figure out
00:22:24.440 how many
00:22:25.960 asymptomatic
00:22:26.900 people there
00:22:27.540 are.
00:22:28.820 So once you
00:22:29.200 have a good
00:22:29.740 word, so
00:22:31.840 wow, Kim
00:22:32.600 Jong-un is
00:22:33.220 brain dead
00:22:33.880 according to
00:22:34.360 NBC.
00:22:35.540 All right,
00:22:35.920 well, I'll
00:22:36.580 check that
00:22:37.040 out as soon
00:22:37.540 as this is
00:22:38.600 over.
00:22:40.300 I don't
00:22:40.980 think anybody
00:22:41.660 knows what
00:22:42.200 that means,
00:22:43.300 right?
00:22:44.680 But I
00:22:45.300 wouldn't rule
00:22:45.860 out coronavirus.
00:22:48.180 I wouldn't
00:22:48.800 rule that
00:22:49.180 out.
00:22:51.620 Well, I
00:22:52.660 wonder who's
00:22:53.180 in charge.
00:22:54.140 This could be
00:22:54.700 really interesting.
00:22:55.820 All right,
00:22:56.740 and not in a
00:22:57.300 good way.
00:22:58.080 I don't think
00:22:58.640 it'll be war,
00:22:59.240 but it's
00:22:59.980 going to be
00:23:00.260 interesting
00:23:00.600 times.
00:23:02.460 Anyway, Peter
00:23:03.080 Atiyah says
00:23:03.800 that we will
00:23:04.460 actually be
00:23:05.000 able to test
00:23:05.620 and we will
00:23:06.580 actually have
00:23:07.080 an answer.
00:23:08.180 So isn't
00:23:08.560 that interesting?
00:23:11.660 Somebody
00:23:12.140 says Katie
00:23:12.900 Turr deleted
00:23:13.760 her tweet.
00:23:15.040 Does that
00:23:15.440 mean we're
00:23:15.840 not sure?
00:23:17.120 CNN is,
00:23:17.940 I'm looking
00:23:18.380 at your
00:23:18.740 comments,
00:23:19.280 CNN is
00:23:19.780 reporting Kim
00:23:20.380 Jong-un is
00:23:20.900 in critical.
00:23:22.300 All right,
00:23:22.800 so I guess
00:23:23.320 the thing we
00:23:23.840 can know for
00:23:24.420 sure is we
00:23:24.940 don't know,
00:23:25.520 right?
00:23:27.040 Sister,
00:23:27.520 a botched
00:23:29.320 medical
00:23:29.800 procedure,
00:23:30.560 you say?
00:23:33.540 A botched,
00:23:34.840 I wonder if
00:23:35.780 it was botched.
00:23:38.260 How botched
00:23:39.140 was it?
00:23:41.680 Anyway,
00:23:42.340 so we will
00:23:43.300 someday know
00:23:43.880 the answer
00:23:44.300 whether we
00:23:44.980 overreacted
00:23:46.140 because of the
00:23:46.620 models or
00:23:47.220 because,
00:23:48.000 or we were
00:23:48.580 just really
00:23:49.000 super effective.
00:23:49.740 well now I
00:23:55.800 just want to
00:23:56.220 go look
00:23:57.220 into that
00:23:57.760 because that
00:23:59.540 looks like
00:23:59.960 that's going
00:24:00.400 to be the
00:24:00.740 big story.
00:24:02.380 So we're
00:24:02.640 up to 41,000
00:24:03.740 deaths in the
00:24:04.320 United States
00:24:04.760 from the
00:24:05.120 coronavirus.
00:24:06.440 The model
00:24:07.680 had been
00:24:08.520 lowered to
00:24:09.060 60.
00:24:10.280 I don't
00:24:10.980 see how
00:24:11.580 we're going
00:24:12.060 to stop
00:24:12.540 at 60.
00:24:14.580 Do you
00:24:15.060 believe that
00:24:15.620 we're,
00:24:15.920 so we have
00:24:16.340 41,000
00:24:17.200 and the
00:24:18.340 model was
00:24:18.960 lowered down
00:24:19.440 to 60?
00:24:20.200 Do you
00:24:20.740 think we're
00:24:21.260 going to
00:24:21.480 go from
00:24:22.180 41,000
00:24:23.660 already and
00:24:25.400 that by the
00:24:26.140 end of the
00:24:26.540 year we're
00:24:27.240 still going
00:24:27.860 to be below
00:24:28.340 60?
00:24:29.920 Or even
00:24:30.840 at 60?
00:24:31.680 Does that
00:24:32.340 seem reasonable
00:24:33.000 to you?
00:24:34.120 Now I get
00:24:34.820 that you're
00:24:36.460 going to
00:24:36.660 level off
00:24:37.220 and stuff,
00:24:38.080 but aren't
00:24:38.400 we just
00:24:38.780 sort of
00:24:39.160 pushing those
00:24:40.340 deaths into
00:24:40.960 the future?
00:24:42.380 I don't
00:24:42.740 really get
00:24:43.460 how we
00:24:45.240 would expect
00:24:45.900 like,
00:24:47.500 you know,
00:24:47.920 I'm no
00:24:48.340 expert
00:24:49.640 virology
00:24:51.540 modeler,
00:24:52.920 but
00:24:53.880 I'm no
00:24:56.220 modeler,
00:24:57.560 but it
00:24:58.240 seems to
00:24:58.740 be almost
00:24:59.480 impossible
00:25:00.240 that we
00:25:01.420 wouldn't
00:25:01.940 shoot past
00:25:02.780 that 60,000
00:25:03.840 number because
00:25:05.000 we'll be going
00:25:05.600 back to work
00:25:06.320 and of course
00:25:07.460 there'll be
00:25:07.880 flare-ups.
00:25:09.400 I mean,
00:25:09.620 I think we're
00:25:10.180 actually going
00:25:10.680 to hit 100,
00:25:11.460 right,
00:25:11.740 at our
00:25:12.060 current rate.
00:25:13.140 I would
00:25:13.800 think that
00:25:14.140 going back
00:25:14.580 to work
00:25:14.960 would put
00:25:15.380 you over
00:25:15.780 100,000
00:25:16.480 easily.
00:25:18.320 I would
00:25:18.920 think.
00:25:19.680 That would
00:25:20.060 still make
00:25:20.440 the models
00:25:20.880 wrong,
00:25:21.320 I think,
00:25:21.700 but I
00:25:23.080 think that's
00:25:23.520 where it's
00:25:23.780 going.
00:25:25.040 All right.
00:25:28.860 I said
00:25:29.600 if 100,000
00:25:30.260 people die,
00:25:31.140 Trump loses
00:25:32.020 re-election.
00:25:33.500 Well,
00:25:34.280 you know,
00:25:35.140 whenever I
00:25:36.480 make a
00:25:36.800 prediction
00:25:37.180 about the
00:25:38.200 election,
00:25:39.340 you should
00:25:40.020 always hear
00:25:40.520 a voice in
00:25:41.320 your head
00:25:41.660 that says,
00:25:42.700 unless
00:25:43.100 something
00:25:43.660 changes,
00:25:44.380 and then
00:25:45.380 the second
00:25:46.360 voice says
00:25:46.980 right after
00:25:47.480 that,
00:25:48.260 and something
00:25:49.060 will change
00:25:49.940 because it
00:25:50.440 always does.
00:25:52.120 So any
00:25:52.920 predictions
00:25:53.640 are sort
00:25:55.440 of absurd
00:25:56.040 because too
00:25:56.620 much is going
00:25:57.120 to change
00:25:58.020 between now
00:25:58.600 and then.
00:25:59.400 But I
00:26:01.720 believe that
00:26:02.860 because people
00:26:04.420 would feel
00:26:05.160 so happy
00:26:05.960 if it were
00:26:07.020 under 100,000,
00:26:09.200 that that would
00:26:09.980 pretty much
00:26:10.440 guarantee
00:26:10.880 election.
00:26:11.380 if it's
00:26:13.060 over 100,
00:26:14.900 it's going
00:26:16.260 to kind
00:26:16.660 of look
00:26:16.940 like Trump
00:26:18.060 was and
00:26:19.020 the governors
00:26:19.960 were right
00:26:20.720 to treat
00:26:22.800 this as a
00:26:23.460 serious
00:26:23.780 problem.
00:26:24.720 So there's
00:26:25.560 lots of
00:26:25.900 ways that
00:26:26.300 Trump can
00:26:26.740 win in
00:26:27.140 this.
00:26:28.000 Because if
00:26:28.380 it turns
00:26:28.700 out to
00:26:29.160 kill more
00:26:29.780 people,
00:26:30.380 then I
00:26:30.980 hate to
00:26:31.320 put that
00:26:31.820 in political
00:26:32.320 terms,
00:26:32.820 but if it
00:26:33.520 turns out
00:26:33.860 to be
00:26:34.100 worse than
00:26:34.780 the people
00:26:36.680 who were
00:26:37.080 not worried
00:26:37.700 thought,
00:26:38.220 they're
00:26:39.360 going to
00:26:39.560 say,
00:26:39.920 oh,
00:26:40.260 I guess
00:26:40.540 Trump was
00:26:41.060 right all
00:26:41.820 along.
00:26:42.340 It was
00:26:42.560 pretty bad.
00:26:44.240 So I
00:26:44.540 think the
00:26:45.000 worse it
00:26:46.320 is up to
00:26:47.040 a point
00:26:47.580 actually helps
00:26:48.820 him.
00:26:50.280 Let me put
00:26:51.300 numbers on
00:26:51.780 this.
00:26:52.040 If I had
00:26:52.340 to say,
00:26:53.540 let's say
00:26:53.960 it capped
00:26:55.240 at 150,000
00:26:59.600 just for a
00:27:00.580 conversation.
00:27:01.500 That's not a
00:27:02.140 prediction.
00:27:03.340 But let's
00:27:03.820 say at the
00:27:04.440 end of the
00:27:04.760 year,
00:27:05.400 by election
00:27:06.620 day,
00:27:06.860 there were
00:27:07.120 150,000
00:27:08.260 dead.
00:27:09.420 One of
00:27:10.020 the things
00:27:10.420 that that
00:27:10.800 would tell
00:27:11.200 you is
00:27:12.480 that it
00:27:12.780 was just
00:27:13.340 as bad
00:27:13.860 as you
00:27:14.140 thought,
00:27:14.880 because we
00:27:15.520 wouldn't even
00:27:15.940 be done.
00:27:17.240 That would
00:27:17.700 tell you that
00:27:18.220 by the end
00:27:18.660 of the year,
00:27:19.120 maybe it's
00:27:19.500 at 200
00:27:20.040 or something.
00:27:21.300 So I
00:27:22.380 think Trump
00:27:23.800 would actually
00:27:24.380 look better,
00:27:25.980 even if
00:27:26.760 death count
00:27:27.300 is higher,
00:27:28.200 up to a
00:27:29.180 point,
00:27:29.960 because then
00:27:30.680 people would
00:27:31.100 say,
00:27:31.460 okay,
00:27:31.780 he was
00:27:34.140 being pretty
00:27:35.860 tough on
00:27:36.300 this.
00:27:36.580 Yeah,
00:27:36.980 he seemed
00:27:37.900 a little
00:27:38.160 too optimistic
00:27:38.940 at first,
00:27:40.300 but now we
00:27:41.880 know that it
00:27:42.300 wasn't a
00:27:42.640 hoax.
00:27:43.360 Now,
00:27:44.400 what if it
00:27:46.180 goes the
00:27:46.520 other way?
00:27:47.380 What if this
00:27:47.940 41,000,
00:27:49.020 just like we're
00:27:50.620 so good at it,
00:27:51.700 it just goes
00:27:52.180 and stops
00:27:53.580 below 60,000?
00:27:55.660 We hope it
00:27:56.340 does.
00:27:57.220 What if it
00:27:57.620 does?
00:27:58.940 Will people
00:27:59.960 say,
00:28:00.540 yay,
00:28:01.500 President Trump,
00:28:02.360 you really
00:28:02.680 nailed it?
00:28:03.460 You did the
00:28:03.960 best that you
00:28:04.480 could possibly
00:28:05.060 do?
00:28:05.880 Probably not.
00:28:07.460 Because even
00:28:07.880 if we've got
00:28:08.440 these other
00:28:09.420 tests to
00:28:10.080 find out,
00:28:11.140 did the
00:28:12.180 mitigation
00:28:12.560 work,
00:28:13.220 or were
00:28:13.740 the models
00:28:14.260 wrong,
00:28:14.760 or was it
00:28:15.160 both?
00:28:15.980 Even with
00:28:16.560 that,
00:28:17.920 if there's a
00:28:18.660 small number
00:28:19.320 who are dead,
00:28:20.240 people are
00:28:20.620 going to say
00:28:20.940 it was all a
00:28:21.440 hoax and
00:28:21.880 you closed the
00:28:22.460 economy for
00:28:23.060 nothing.
00:28:23.880 Even though
00:28:24.420 that doesn't
00:28:24.820 make sense,
00:28:25.700 because we
00:28:26.040 don't know
00:28:26.360 what would
00:28:26.740 have happened
00:28:27.080 if we
00:28:27.360 hadn't done
00:28:27.720 it could
00:28:29.920 go either
00:28:30.260 way.
00:28:30.940 All right,
00:28:31.220 I think we
00:28:31.640 can go
00:28:32.860 check on
00:28:33.560 Kim Jong-un.
00:28:38.140 I would,
00:28:39.080 I would,
00:28:40.460 you know,
00:28:42.040 I'll tell
00:28:42.380 you,
00:28:42.980 somebody's
00:28:45.720 asking me
00:28:46.140 if I'm
00:28:46.420 stoned.
00:28:48.420 No,
00:28:48.960 not at the
00:28:49.360 moment,
00:28:49.700 as a matter
00:28:50.080 of fact.
00:28:51.460 I'm tired,
00:28:52.620 but I'm
00:28:53.100 not stoned.
00:28:57.260 I've got a
00:28:58.000 feeling Joe
00:28:58.700 Biden might
00:29:00.620 have an
00:29:01.080 announcement
00:29:01.500 this week.
00:29:02.800 I would say,
00:29:03.880 you know,
00:29:04.360 every day that
00:29:05.320 goes by that
00:29:05.960 you don't see
00:29:06.400 him in public
00:29:06.940 makes it more
00:29:08.060 of a certainty
00:29:08.700 that he's
00:29:10.440 being talked
00:29:10.940 out of the
00:29:11.280 race.
00:29:11.900 What we
00:29:12.240 don't know
00:29:12.780 is if there's
00:29:13.580 been any
00:29:14.060 decision about
00:29:14.840 who would
00:29:15.300 replace him
00:29:16.000 or even how
00:29:16.620 they would
00:29:16.880 handle that.
00:29:18.100 I mean,
00:29:18.860 you know,
00:29:19.460 there was a
00:29:20.460 report that
00:29:21.100 Biden was
00:29:21.780 starting to
00:29:23.080 pick his
00:29:23.640 cabinet picks.
00:29:24.640 No,
00:29:24.840 not his
00:29:25.120 cabinet.
00:29:26.400 There was a
00:29:26.980 report that
00:29:27.540 Biden was
00:29:28.020 trying to
00:29:28.360 pick his
00:29:28.700 transition team
00:29:29.700 for when he
00:29:30.220 won.
00:29:31.260 And I
00:29:31.580 thought to
00:29:31.880 myself,
00:29:32.740 I don't
00:29:33.340 think that's
00:29:33.820 happening.
00:29:35.800 I don't
00:29:36.520 think Joe
00:29:38.740 Biden is
00:29:39.320 picking a
00:29:39.820 transition team
00:29:40.680 for when he
00:29:41.260 wins.
00:29:41.800 I don't
00:29:42.080 think that's
00:29:42.760 happening.
00:29:43.920 Maybe,
00:29:45.120 but I don't
00:29:45.920 think so.
00:29:47.200 All right,
00:29:47.560 well,
00:29:47.760 I will see
00:29:48.160 you in the
00:29:48.440 morning.
00:29:48.780 Let's go
00:29:49.080 check the
00:29:49.540 news and
00:29:50.080 see you
00:29:51.000 once more.