Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 926 Scott Adams： Join Me to Ease Into a Great Night of Sleep. Yes, I am That Boring.

00:00:00.000 Come on in here. It's time for the evening relaxation.

00:00:17.400 It's like a slippery, delightful slide in which you slide into a good night's sleep.

00:00:25.380 Yep, I am that uninteresting tonight. You'll be drifting off to sleep. So good.

00:00:35.080 I have to show you this scene over here. Hold on.

00:00:39.700 View. That's Boo the cat standing behind my circle light.

00:00:46.540 Hey, Boo. She knows we're watching her.

00:00:50.920 All right. For those of you who are. That was the least of least useful thing that ever happened.

00:01:00.460 All right. Let's talk about some things that happened. First of all, let me check in.

00:01:05.080 Can I get a fact check? How long has it been since we saw signs of life from Joe Biden?

00:01:11.600 Can somebody give me a read on that? Because I don't think he was around today, right?

00:01:18.780 And is that three days in a row?

00:01:22.620 Can somebody give me a fact check on that?

00:01:25.460 Has anybody seen Biden on video or even, I don't know, a phone call in the last three days?

00:01:33.680 Because if not, I think it's already the end of the road.

00:01:40.900 That would be my guess.

00:01:43.240 If it's true that it's been three days without seeing him, then he's already decided or he's in the process of deciding to get out of the race.

00:01:55.020 Thursday, somebody says, the last time we saw him.

00:01:57.260 All right. Well, I'll keep looking at your comments in case somebody saw something.

00:02:05.480 Here's something I've been trying to figure out.

00:02:08.600 Does all of this business with the coronavirus.

00:02:14.820 Okay. Most people say three days.

00:02:17.640 Does the business with the coronavirus make it more likely or less likely that we'll have a green new deal?

00:02:23.520 Do you think it'll be more likely or less likely?

00:02:29.520 I think AOC had a tweet today that was celebrating the collapse of oil prices.

00:02:35.580 And it was a, let's say it was an inelegant tweet that I believe she got rid of it.

00:02:42.260 But I'm trying to figure out what happens to the green new deal.

00:02:48.480 If all the demand for oil goes away, the, you know, there's no commuting.

00:02:55.400 Is it possible that the coronavirus solved climate change?

00:03:02.040 That's not impossible, right?

00:03:04.100 Because I don't know if you've, you know, looked down at the streets, if you've left your house or anything,

00:03:09.480 but there's not much traffic happening right now.

00:03:12.140 And you know what?

00:03:14.200 All the traffic that is happening is essential.

00:03:19.540 And here's a big question I'm wondering.

00:03:22.260 I'm wondering if people will just decide that they didn't need all the stuff they had before.

00:03:27.540 And here's the theory behind that.

00:03:31.080 Have you ever heard of the theory of baseline happiness?

00:03:33.240 It's the idea that you're sort of set in how happy you can be,

00:03:38.560 even if conditions in your life get really good, you don't get much happier.

00:03:44.700 And if things are really bad, yeah, you do get, you get sad if things are really bad,

00:03:48.980 but it doesn't last that long.

00:03:50.760 You know, a year later or whatever, after, let's say, a death in the family or something,

00:03:54.460 you tend to drift back to whatever happiness level is your baseline.

00:04:00.140 And we all have a different baseline.

00:04:01.600 So I'm wondering if people are discovering that they've been in lockdown long enough

00:04:08.300 that even though nobody would choose it, probably nobody would choose it except introverts.

00:04:15.880 It's pretty good times for introverts.

00:04:18.100 I have to admit, being an introvert, I'm getting through this a lot better than most of you.

00:04:26.440 But I'm wondering if people will realize that their happiness level didn't change as much

00:04:33.420 as they assumed it would.

00:04:35.320 Because if I said to you, I'm going to take away all of your freedoms,

00:04:39.180 and you'll have to just stay in the house,

00:04:42.040 and, you know, you'll have to worry about everything,

00:04:45.560 you'd say to yourself, well, there's no way I'm going to be as happy.

00:04:48.520 And if I asked you, you'd probably say you're less happy,

00:04:52.780 because you have more stress and uncertainty, and those things are real.

00:04:56.960 But I'll bet you there's way less of a change than anybody would have predicted.

00:05:04.140 I'll bet that a lot of people are just getting through it just fine.

00:05:08.240 Now, the people who are literally worrying about eating are not getting through it fine.

00:05:13.960 But I'll bet you a lot of people are.

00:05:21.000 I would like to give a shout-out to the task force

00:05:25.780 for satisfying my need for good explanations of where we are on test kits.

00:05:34.560 Now, as you know, I've just been railing and railing about the task force

00:05:40.060 not giving us useful information because it's out of context.

00:05:43.860 They were just giving us random numbers and stuff.

00:05:46.980 10,000 ventilators, 15,000 masks, and we couldn't tell, is that enough?

00:05:52.480 Is that too much?

00:05:53.980 And then we ended up with triple the number of ventilators,

00:05:57.420 partly because the projections were overcooked,

00:06:00.600 but partly I think also because we didn't have good visibility

00:06:04.520 of who could do what and how fast and what we would need and all that.

00:06:08.960 But if I had to give a grade to the administration for ventilators,

00:06:15.320 let's say we're just separating the report card

00:06:17.860 and we say, you know, ventilators,

00:06:22.580 I think I'd give them an A-plus for ventilators

00:06:25.260 because given that the requirements of the government

00:06:29.660 were pretty much, in my opinion, the requirements were

00:06:35.540 at all costs, don't let anybody die because they didn't have a ventilator.

00:06:40.120 And if that means making too many of them,

00:06:42.780 I think that was the choice that we made.

00:06:45.120 So the fact that we made too many and we have to give it away,

00:06:48.300 I think you just have to say that's a home run

00:06:51.140 because they started making them in the context of thinking

00:06:55.180 that they might actually need them.

00:06:56.920 And if we have too many, well, that's good news.

00:06:58.860 So I'd give them an A-plus on ventilators.

00:07:00.640 Actually, very impressive.

00:07:02.980 It also looks like we're not going to run out of anything else,

00:07:06.800 as far as I can tell.

00:07:09.320 So that looks pretty good, too.

00:07:12.160 Looks like we won't run out of anything.

00:07:15.140 But I was always unhappy with not knowing it as it happened.

00:07:20.100 Now, the testing facilities are the other big wild card.

00:07:26.060 And I felt that until today,

00:07:28.080 we were not getting any information that was useful

00:07:30.860 in terms of the public saying,

00:07:33.900 oh, it looks like we'll get out of this in a month or a week or whatever.

00:07:38.320 It seemed like we needed to know where we were on testing

00:07:40.780 because that was the base of it all.

00:07:43.180 But the task force did a great job today.

00:07:44.980 They brought out some young guy, Brad,

00:07:48.560 and somebody who just nailed it.

00:07:51.500 And the whole time he was talking, I kept thinking,

00:07:53.780 where have you been hiding this guy?

00:07:56.520 This guy was perfect.

00:07:57.580 He seemed to have a complete command of where we were

00:08:01.760 with test kits and supplies and stuff.

00:08:04.740 And then the other folks, I don't remember all their names,

00:08:08.120 but the generals and the admirals and stuff.

00:08:10.880 And I thought they did a really good job of breaking it down,

00:08:15.700 what's where.

00:08:17.640 And it took a while to get the distinction

00:08:21.480 that sometimes they were talking about the test facility

00:08:25.120 and sometimes they were talking about the physical supplies

00:08:28.800 that you need to put a sample in and send it to the lab.

00:08:32.600 So it looks like we were in better shape.

00:08:36.320 We're in good shape in terms of test facilities and machines.

00:08:40.940 And they seem to be everywhere you would need them,

00:08:42.920 all over the states.

00:08:44.800 And we're in less good shape,

00:08:47.360 or at least have been, on the supplies,

00:08:51.600 the swabs and stuff.

00:08:53.480 But it looks like, you know,

00:08:54.720 if you believe the task force report,

00:08:57.180 it looks like we're very, very quickly

00:08:59.640 going to get a good handle on that.

00:09:01.500 But the bottom line,

00:09:02.860 which the president and the task force said,

00:09:05.860 is that the states already have

00:09:08.100 enough to do testing to get to phase one.

00:09:12.800 And that seems like the minimum requirement.

00:09:16.460 If you have enough to get to phase one,

00:09:19.160 and that's what we're all shooting for,

00:09:20.600 it's not perfect.

00:09:22.020 You know, we'd all like to have way more tests.

00:09:24.420 But it turns out, even if you had,

00:09:26.680 I forget who said this,

00:09:27.800 but it sounded smart,

00:09:29.560 that even if you had way, way more tests,

00:09:32.860 you would still be so far away

00:09:35.140 from having enough tests to just test everybody

00:09:37.860 that you really couldn't get there.

00:09:40.940 But if you did test everybody,

00:09:42.560 how often do you have to retest?

00:09:45.040 You know, so somebody was pointing out

00:09:47.940 that you really can't get so many tests

00:09:50.600 that you just like nail it down

00:09:52.200 because you've tested the crap out of it.

00:09:54.240 That's sort of an impractical goal.

00:09:55.860 I don't know if that's true,

00:09:57.480 but somebody smart said that.

00:09:59.120 But rather, you go for whatever's the weakest,

00:10:03.580 you know, biggest leverage,

00:10:05.180 the best leverage,

00:10:07.120 and I guess I believe this,

00:10:09.360 is testing the people

00:10:10.940 who are in the same environment

00:10:12.860 with people who are infected.

00:10:14.680 So first responders and nursing home people.

00:10:17.940 Then somehow,

00:10:18.920 somehow that's going to be

00:10:19.900 the best targeted use of the tests.

00:10:21.980 I hope that's enough.

00:10:25.160 But I would say this was the best,

00:10:28.780 I think the best task force report,

00:10:33.580 and in my opinion,

00:10:35.000 showed a great deal of competence.

00:10:37.560 Now, my favorite part about it

00:10:39.220 was when,

00:10:42.400 I think it was CNN,

00:10:44.480 correspondent,

00:10:46.520 asked the question of Mike Pence

00:10:48.160 and said,

00:10:48.720 hey, if you say

00:10:50.020 that the states have

00:10:51.460 all the testing that they need,

00:10:53.480 why did the governor of Maryland

00:10:55.200 have to go to South Korea

00:10:56.520 to get,

00:10:57.580 to try to buy supplies?

00:10:59.780 And,

00:11:00.400 now the first thing you need to know

00:11:02.240 is that the supplies

00:11:03.180 they were buying

00:11:03.920 were the part that wasn't

00:11:05.320 short supply.

00:11:07.300 It was only the testing facilities

00:11:09.580 that are quite generously

00:11:11.560 everywhere

00:11:12.180 and have lots of capacity.

00:11:14.420 So the governor was talking

00:11:16.380 about supplies

00:11:17.400 that they got from South Korea

00:11:18.960 and so CNN asked that question

00:11:22.120 and Pence says,

00:11:24.140 can you put up the Maryland map?

00:11:26.220 And within seconds,

00:11:27.640 there's this big visual aid

00:11:29.400 of all the testing centers

00:11:30.920 in Maryland.

00:11:32.180 And if you weren't following along

00:11:34.460 and you didn't know

00:11:35.200 that the question

00:11:36.480 was more about the supplies

00:11:37.880 than it was the testing facilities,

00:11:40.320 it looked like Pence

00:11:42.980 just totally dunked on her. 1.00

00:11:44.420 And then he sort of

00:11:45.580 changed the subject

00:11:46.320 and she didn't follow up.

00:11:48.640 I don't know if she

00:11:49.440 didn't understand

00:11:51.200 that he wasn't really

00:11:53.240 answering her question directly.

00:11:55.380 But in any event,

00:11:57.540 it looks like even Maryland

00:11:59.040 got some supplies.

00:12:00.680 So I think,

00:12:01.960 I think everybody's okay.

00:12:04.200 So there's that.

00:12:06.560 But I,

00:12:07.100 I guess I was impressed

00:12:09.780 because you don't see somebody

00:12:11.120 using a PowerPoint slide deck

00:12:13.020 that effectively.

00:12:14.420 where somebody asks a question

00:12:15.900 and you just slap this map up there

00:12:17.640 and you're like,

00:12:18.640 next question,

00:12:19.820 even though it didn't really

00:12:20.620 answer her question.

00:12:23.980 All right.

00:12:24.800 what's up with oil prices?

00:12:27.960 What is up with oil prices?

00:12:32.700 I don't even know how to understand

00:12:34.760 oil prices.

00:12:36.640 Obviously,

00:12:37.240 it's very temporary

00:12:37.980 because almost immediately

00:12:39.920 the,

00:12:40.620 you know,

00:12:41.220 the supply will,

00:12:42.280 will change.

00:12:43.420 So I would assume

00:12:44.260 it'll,

00:12:44.580 it'll drift back up.

00:12:45.960 But man,

00:12:47.380 what are the odds

00:12:50.980 that you're in the airline business

00:12:52.840 and fuel goes to

00:12:55.300 so cheap

00:12:56.400 that it would be

00:12:57.100 the best time

00:12:57.740 to be in the airline business

00:12:59.080 except,

00:13:00.620 oops,

00:13:01.300 can't be in the airline business either.

00:13:02.840 So here's a,

00:13:09.060 I don't want to ask that question.

00:13:12.160 Oh,

00:13:12.560 so Ken Burns,

00:13:15.140 PBS is releasing

00:13:16.420 a whole bunch of

00:13:16.980 Ken Burns films

00:13:18.180 for teachers and students

00:13:20.520 to,

00:13:21.120 to use for the

00:13:23.440 online history courses,

00:13:24.700 which is like

00:13:26.040 the best idea ever

00:13:27.280 because

00:13:28.440 this is really where

00:13:29.920 online education is going.

00:13:32.020 It's going to be like

00:13:32.780 a Hollywood production

00:13:33.760 so that when you're

00:13:35.480 watching it at home,

00:13:36.400 it's way better

00:13:37.040 than being in a class

00:13:38.060 and listening to a boring teacher

00:13:40.040 and listening

00:13:41.060 or watching the

00:13:42.320 Ken Burns

00:13:43.140 history movies

00:13:45.680 are really good.

00:13:47.800 I mean,

00:13:48.100 that's,

00:13:48.660 that's a pretty solid way

00:13:50.600 to teach history

00:13:51.720 if you ask me.

00:13:53.200 So I think,

00:13:54.060 I think you're going to see

00:13:55.020 free college.

00:13:56.620 There will be free college

00:13:59.220 but it will be

00:13:59.780 online college.

00:14:01.140 All right,

00:14:01.380 so

00:14:01.620 here's a

00:14:04.680 question for you.

00:14:06.380 I know just enough

00:14:07.800 about economics

00:14:08.800 to

00:14:10.140 be confused

00:14:11.520 about stuff.

00:14:13.340 Why is everybody

00:14:14.220 saying

00:14:14.680 Kim Jong-un

00:14:15.800 has some issues?

00:14:18.160 Is there some news

00:14:18.860 about Kim Jong-un

00:14:19.700 that I'm missing?

00:14:20.860 Because I just

00:14:21.720 looked at the news

00:14:22.540 before I turned it on.

00:14:23.500 And I didn't say

00:14:23.960 anything about that.

00:14:25.580 All right,

00:14:25.820 so here's the

00:14:26.440 question.

00:14:28.420 If the

00:14:29.160 20%

00:14:30.280 of the people

00:14:31.020 who are unemployed

00:14:31.860 in rough terms

00:14:34.420 are probably,

00:14:36.240 or for the most part

00:14:37.080 they're the people

00:14:37.740 at the lower end

00:14:39.000 of the economic

00:14:39.800 spectrum.

00:14:41.240 And there's still

00:14:42.020 a lot of cubicle

00:14:42.820 dwellers

00:14:43.540 and millionaires.

00:14:44.780 people are reporting

00:14:48.320 that Kim Jong-un

00:14:49.400 is actually

00:14:49.940 so that's really

00:14:51.260 a thing

00:14:51.720 unless this is

00:14:53.140 the greatest prank

00:14:53.960 ever because

00:14:54.540 you're all

00:14:54.900 saying the same

00:14:56.100 thing.

00:14:57.240 All right,

00:14:57.460 let me check it

00:14:57.980 in real time.

00:14:58.920 I literally

00:14:59.400 just

00:14:59.780 oh,

00:15:02.160 whoa,

00:15:03.500 grave danger

00:15:05.020 after surgery.

00:15:06.880 What do we

00:15:07.580 know about that?

00:15:08.480 You all know

00:15:09.140 more than I do

00:15:09.680 about that.

00:15:11.040 So there was

00:15:11.860 a speculation

00:15:12.580 because he wasn't

00:15:13.380 in public

00:15:14.020 and it's

00:15:15.960 tightly controlled

00:15:16.700 so we don't

00:15:17.260 know.

00:15:20.580 So it's

00:15:21.240 basically rumors

00:15:22.200 which doesn't

00:15:25.620 mean it's not

00:15:26.100 true but

00:15:27.460 how does

00:15:28.040 anybody know?

00:15:29.740 All right,

00:15:30.120 so he had a

00:15:31.500 cane,

00:15:31.920 he had a cyst

00:15:32.460 removed from

00:15:33.040 his ankles

00:15:33.660 and somebody

00:15:35.060 says it's easy

00:15:35.780 to be wrong

00:15:36.380 on this one

00:15:36.860 said,

00:15:37.600 yeah,

00:15:38.460 so some

00:15:39.160 experts said

00:15:39.800 it's easy

00:15:40.220 to be wrong

00:15:40.780 on this

00:15:41.080 one.

00:15:45.360 So I

00:15:46.820 wouldn't bet

00:15:47.640 on Kim

00:15:48.420 Jong-un

00:15:49.080 being brain

00:15:51.800 dead but 0.98

00:15:52.740 we'll see.

00:15:55.280 We'll see.

00:15:57.120 Anyway,

00:15:57.540 here's the

00:15:58.020 thought experiment.

00:15:59.240 If the people

00:15:59.900 who mostly

00:16:00.560 are unemployed

00:16:01.360 were also

00:16:02.480 the ones

00:16:03.000 who unfortunately

00:16:04.020 were the lowest

00:16:04.880 end of the

00:16:05.420 economic

00:16:05.920 system,

00:16:07.880 how much

00:16:09.720 money do

00:16:11.940 we still

00:16:12.380 have in

00:16:12.780 the system

00:16:13.280 should we

00:16:13.800 get back

00:16:14.200 to work

00:16:14.580 in a month

00:16:14.980 or so?

00:16:16.040 How much

00:16:16.520 money would

00:16:17.000 we still

00:16:17.420 have to

00:16:18.940 start

00:16:19.440 stimulating

00:16:20.040 demand?

00:16:21.540 So if you

00:16:22.000 assume that

00:16:22.540 there was

00:16:23.700 20%

00:16:24.260 unemployment,

00:16:25.340 so let's

00:16:25.980 just say

00:16:26.320 that 20%

00:16:27.000 of the

00:16:27.220 public

00:16:27.500 really is

00:16:28.400 just flat

00:16:28.980 broke.

00:16:29.340 broke and

00:16:30.720 they'd be

00:16:31.140 lucky to

00:16:32.540 get back

00:16:33.000 on their

00:16:33.320 feet and

00:16:33.860 just sort

00:16:34.420 of break

00:16:34.800 even,

00:16:35.480 but they're

00:16:35.900 not going

00:16:36.220 to be

00:16:36.420 generating

00:16:36.900 any kind

00:16:37.520 of demand

00:16:38.820 by buying

00:16:40.140 a lot of

00:16:40.540 extra stuff.

00:16:42.340 So the

00:16:42.640 people who

00:16:43.340 lost,

00:16:43.720 here's where

00:16:44.120 I'm going

00:16:44.400 with this,

00:16:45.220 the people

00:16:45.620 who lost

00:16:46.200 their jobs,

00:16:47.520 while it's

00:16:48.020 a big,

00:16:48.680 scary,

00:16:49.240 horrible

00:16:49.620 number and

00:16:50.460 a tragedy

00:16:51.260 by any

00:16:52.540 description,

00:16:54.500 it also

00:16:55.100 is not

00:16:55.720 a large

00:16:56.760 part of

00:16:57.420 the total

00:16:57.940 amount of

00:16:58.500 money in

00:16:59.580 the country

00:17:00.120 that drives

00:17:01.620 demand.

00:17:02.880 Is it?

00:17:03.980 So this is

00:17:04.900 sort of a

00:17:05.320 statement slash

00:17:06.160 question because

00:17:06.960 I'm a little

00:17:07.340 uncertain if

00:17:08.220 I'm missing

00:17:08.640 something big,

00:17:09.820 but you know

00:17:10.240 we talk

00:17:10.660 endlessly about

00:17:11.420 the top

00:17:12.460 1%

00:17:13.280 owning most

00:17:14.600 of the

00:17:15.020 wealth.

00:17:16.800 And let's

00:17:17.180 say the

00:17:18.100 top 20%

00:17:19.320 owns 80%

00:17:21.160 of the

00:17:21.400 wealth.

00:17:22.580 I don't

00:17:22.840 know,

00:17:23.060 what are

00:17:23.500 the exact

00:17:23.900 numbers,

00:17:24.360 top 30%,

00:17:25.360 pick a

00:17:25.900 number,

00:17:26.700 the point

00:17:27.480 will be the

00:17:27.940 same.

00:17:28.500 And the

00:17:30.540 point is

00:17:31.860 this,

00:17:32.760 that at

00:17:33.280 the top,

00:17:34.120 the people

00:17:34.500 who had

00:17:34.900 all the

00:17:35.220 wealth,

00:17:36.180 even if

00:17:36.740 their wealth

00:17:37.200 is compressed

00:17:37.860 by a

00:17:38.340 third,

00:17:39.620 I think

00:17:40.060 that roughly

00:17:40.560 is what

00:17:40.980 will happen

00:17:41.320 to me.

00:17:42.200 So I

00:17:42.440 think my

00:17:42.940 net worth

00:17:43.560 is probably

00:17:44.040 down by

00:17:44.460 a third.

00:17:45.500 But probably

00:17:46.100 not enough

00:17:46.660 to radically

00:17:48.240 change my

00:17:49.200 normal

00:17:50.300 consumer level.

00:17:52.040 I'm going

00:17:52.560 to get as

00:17:52.940 many haircuts

00:17:53.720 and probably

00:17:55.800 go out to

00:17:56.260 dinner the

00:17:56.940 same amount.

00:17:58.100 So the

00:17:58.320 point is,

00:17:59.340 if the

00:17:59.720 people at

00:18:00.200 the top,

00:18:01.080 even though

00:18:01.460 they had a

00:18:02.560 great contraction

00:18:04.000 in their

00:18:04.460 wealth,

00:18:04.960 just like

00:18:05.340 everybody else,

00:18:06.400 they still

00:18:07.100 have plenty

00:18:07.500 left.

00:18:08.780 So as

00:18:09.620 soon as

00:18:10.000 they can

00:18:10.560 buy things,

00:18:12.240 do they

00:18:12.740 not have a

00:18:13.480 lot of

00:18:13.720 money to

00:18:14.100 go buy

00:18:14.500 things?

00:18:14.860 If it's

00:18:15.500 true that

00:18:16.480 the people

00:18:16.840 at the

00:18:17.180 top always

00:18:18.560 had all

00:18:18.880 the money

00:18:19.200 anyway.

00:18:21.140 So here's

00:18:22.740 the question.

00:18:23.500 when we

00:18:24.720 assume that

00:18:25.760 the economy

00:18:26.880 might turn

00:18:27.960 into a

00:18:28.360 depression,

00:18:29.780 you could

00:18:30.240 break that

00:18:30.700 down to

00:18:31.720 specific

00:18:33.400 problems like

00:18:34.200 credit and

00:18:36.040 being able

00:18:36.560 to eat,

00:18:38.380 right?

00:18:39.480 I mean,

00:18:39.780 the thing

00:18:40.120 that will be

00:18:40.620 broken when

00:18:41.320 we get back,

00:18:44.080 I don't think

00:18:45.020 it will be

00:18:45.380 just demand.

00:18:47.360 Because I

00:18:47.680 think demand

00:18:48.200 might come

00:18:48.640 back faster

00:18:49.200 than you think

00:18:49.720 because the

00:18:50.360 people with

00:18:50.780 money still

00:18:52.120 have some.

00:18:53.000 At least

00:18:53.480 they have

00:18:53.720 enough to

00:18:54.260 drive demand,

00:18:55.640 I would

00:18:55.820 think.

00:18:56.920 But the

00:18:57.560 big problem

00:18:57.980 is that so

00:18:58.560 many people

00:18:59.040 are going

00:18:59.300 to be

00:18:59.560 behind in

00:19:00.700 bills and

00:19:01.800 mispayments.

00:19:03.140 But I

00:19:03.700 think we

00:19:04.100 can solve

00:19:04.620 that.

00:19:05.660 It seems

00:19:06.240 to me that

00:19:07.860 we would

00:19:08.320 be able to

00:19:09.460 fairly cleverly

00:19:11.480 solve the

00:19:12.400 credit problem

00:19:13.120 either by

00:19:13.680 making exceptions

00:19:14.540 or saying,

00:19:15.820 hey,

00:19:16.100 everybody who

00:19:16.680 went through

00:19:17.000 this,

00:19:17.400 just push

00:19:17.800 all of your

00:19:18.280 bills ahead

00:19:19.500 three months

00:19:20.240 and we'll

00:19:21.960 if that

00:19:22.980 causes some

00:19:23.620 company to

00:19:24.320 go bankrupt, 0.93

00:19:25.300 we'll backstop

00:19:25.940 it for a

00:19:26.300 while.

00:19:26.600 There's

00:19:26.780 probably some

00:19:27.240 clever ways

00:19:27.840 we can

00:19:28.180 work through

00:19:29.500 it.

00:19:31.360 But I

00:19:32.300 am expecting

00:19:32.840 that we

00:19:34.640 might come

00:19:36.380 out of it

00:19:36.880 way better,

00:19:38.900 way better

00:19:39.860 than the

00:19:40.680 most optimistic

00:19:41.780 predictions.

00:19:44.240 And I

00:19:44.480 think it

00:19:44.880 could be

00:19:45.180 because of

00:19:45.640 that.

00:19:46.480 Because

00:19:46.680 nothing's

00:19:47.480 broken.

00:19:48.280 Now here's

00:19:48.720 the other

00:19:49.000 thing that

00:19:49.520 I think

00:19:50.540 could not

00:19:51.220 be modeled.

00:19:51.960 So when

00:19:52.980 the prediction

00:19:53.460 models are

00:19:54.180 figuring out

00:19:54.820 how bad

00:19:55.760 things are

00:19:56.140 going to

00:19:56.320 be,

00:19:56.860 here's

00:19:57.200 something

00:19:57.460 that

00:19:57.700 can't

00:19:58.040 be

00:19:58.200 modeled.

00:19:59.760 The

00:19:59.940 effectiveness

00:20:00.540 of our

00:20:01.200 communications

00:20:02.120 in 2020.

00:20:04.380 In 2020,

00:20:06.280 anybody who

00:20:07.040 knows anything

00:20:07.840 that's important

00:20:09.200 to help on

00:20:09.960 the pandemic,

00:20:11.260 if it's

00:20:12.060 known anywhere,

00:20:13.500 it's pretty

00:20:14.600 much immediately

00:20:15.280 known everywhere

00:20:16.060 because good

00:20:17.480 ideas spread

00:20:18.480 pretty quickly.

00:20:19.120 and so

00:20:20.360 because of

00:20:22.180 our good

00:20:22.540 communication,

00:20:23.280 we have

00:20:23.460 a society

00:20:24.080 that is

00:20:25.300 super

00:20:26.060 self-healing.

00:20:28.540 So you

00:20:28.820 could take

00:20:29.580 almost anything

00:20:30.400 and throw it

00:20:31.000 into this

00:20:31.500 big ball

00:20:32.560 of civilization

00:20:33.440 and it

00:20:34.460 could break

00:20:35.260 just crazy,

00:20:37.060 just break

00:20:37.560 stuff,

00:20:38.420 break your

00:20:38.880 whole economy,

00:20:39.920 destroy buildings, 0.52

00:20:40.980 everything.

00:20:41.240 But as

00:20:42.160 long as

00:20:42.640 the humans

00:20:44.020 still could

00:20:44.820 communicate,

00:20:46.480 our ability

00:20:47.360 to use that

00:20:48.060 communication

00:20:48.700 to quickly

00:20:49.500 adapt and

00:20:50.180 make plans

00:20:50.800 and move

00:20:51.200 resources and

00:20:51.980 stuff is

00:20:53.400 somewhat

00:20:54.500 breathtaking.

00:20:55.980 So I

00:20:58.040 think our

00:20:58.500 recovery doesn't

00:20:59.640 account for

00:21:00.480 how well we

00:21:01.760 communicate and

00:21:02.980 that it creates

00:21:03.600 almost a super

00:21:04.500 being with

00:21:05.180 self-healing

00:21:05.820 powers and

00:21:07.660 how much

00:21:08.320 money there's

00:21:08.860 still left and

00:21:09.720 the people who

00:21:10.280 will drive

00:21:10.720 demand like

00:21:12.400 they probably

00:21:12.880 usually do

00:21:13.540 because people

00:21:14.400 who didn't

00:21:14.840 have money

00:21:15.300 weren't driving

00:21:15.820 a lot of

00:21:16.180 demand.

00:21:17.520 All right.

00:21:19.180 I tweeted

00:21:19.800 an article

00:21:21.860 by an

00:21:22.660 MD,

00:21:23.240 Peter

00:21:23.560 Attia,

00:21:24.400 A-T-T-I-A, 1.00

00:21:26.160 if you want

00:21:26.460 to look for

00:21:26.920 him.

00:21:28.040 He's

00:21:28.300 Peter

00:21:28.740 Attia

00:21:29.620 MD on

00:21:31.200 Twitter.

00:21:32.360 And it

00:21:32.820 was a really

00:21:33.320 good article

00:21:34.100 and I'll

00:21:34.580 try to

00:21:34.900 capture the

00:21:35.460 gist of

00:21:36.060 it.

00:21:37.040 And he

00:21:38.400 was trying

00:21:38.780 to figure

00:21:39.260 out if

00:21:39.760 there's

00:21:39.960 some way

00:21:40.360 we could

00:21:40.780 tell now

00:21:42.460 or ever

00:21:43.020 whether what

00:21:45.060 we experienced

00:21:45.840 was that the

00:21:46.480 models were

00:21:47.180 all wrong

00:21:47.860 or that we

00:21:49.940 were super

00:21:50.500 effective in

00:21:51.960 mitigating.

00:21:52.880 Like why is it

00:21:53.600 that the models

00:21:54.160 were so wrong?

00:21:55.160 Because we

00:21:55.860 were so good

00:21:56.560 or the models

00:21:57.200 were so wrong

00:21:57.980 or is it a

00:21:59.160 little bit of

00:22:00.200 both and if

00:22:01.060 so, which is

00:22:02.200 the dominant

00:22:02.680 part?

00:22:03.700 Real important

00:22:04.420 to know that,

00:22:05.000 right?

00:22:05.400 I mean, we

00:22:05.880 really, really

00:22:06.640 want to know

00:22:07.240 that.

00:22:08.200 And he

00:22:08.720 suggests that

00:22:09.560 we can

00:22:10.060 actually know

00:22:10.780 that someday

00:22:11.380 because when

00:22:12.620 we can test

00:22:14.400 enough, and

00:22:15.340 we're not

00:22:15.620 there yet,

00:22:16.620 but I think

00:22:17.160 we'll reasonably

00:22:17.900 get there,

00:22:18.700 maybe, you

00:22:19.260 know, two

00:22:19.980 months or

00:22:20.400 something,

00:22:21.020 we should be

00:22:21.920 able to

00:22:22.700 figure out

00:22:24.440 how many

00:22:25.960 asymptomatic

00:22:26.900 people there

00:22:27.540 are.

00:22:28.820 So once you

00:22:29.200 have a good

00:22:29.740 word, so

00:22:31.840 wow, Kim

00:22:32.600 Jong-un is 0.99

00:22:33.220 brain dead 0.61

00:22:33.880 according to

00:22:34.360 NBC.

00:22:35.540 All right,

00:22:35.920 well, I'll

00:22:36.580 check that

00:22:37.040 out as soon

00:22:37.540 as this is

00:22:38.600 over.

00:22:40.300 I don't

00:22:40.980 think anybody

00:22:41.660 knows what

00:22:42.200 that means,

00:22:43.300 right?

00:22:44.680 But I

00:22:45.300 wouldn't rule

00:22:45.860 out coronavirus.

00:22:48.180 I wouldn't

00:22:48.800 rule that

00:22:49.180 out.

00:22:51.620 Well, I

00:22:52.660 wonder who's

00:22:53.180 in charge.

00:22:54.140 This could be

00:22:54.700 really interesting.

00:22:55.820 All right,

00:22:56.740 and not in a

00:22:57.300 good way.

00:22:58.080 I don't think

00:22:58.640 it'll be war,

00:22:59.240 but it's

00:22:59.980 going to be

00:23:00.260 interesting

00:23:00.600 times.

00:23:02.460 Anyway, Peter

00:23:03.080 Atiyah says

00:23:03.800 that we will

00:23:04.460 actually be

00:23:05.000 able to test

00:23:05.620 and we will

00:23:06.580 actually have

00:23:07.080 an answer.

00:23:08.180 So isn't

00:23:08.560 that interesting?

00:23:11.660 Somebody

00:23:12.140 says Katie

00:23:12.900 Turr deleted

00:23:13.760 her tweet.

00:23:15.040 Does that

00:23:15.440 mean we're

00:23:15.840 not sure?

00:23:17.120 CNN is,

00:23:17.940 I'm looking

00:23:18.380 at your

00:23:18.740 comments,

00:23:19.280 CNN is

00:23:19.780 reporting Kim

00:23:20.380 Jong-un is

00:23:20.900 in critical.

00:23:22.300 All right,

00:23:22.800 so I guess

00:23:23.320 the thing we

00:23:23.840 can know for

00:23:24.420 sure is we

00:23:24.940 don't know,

00:23:25.520 right?

00:23:27.040 Sister,

00:23:27.520 a botched

00:23:29.320 medical

00:23:29.800 procedure,

00:23:30.560 you say?

00:23:33.540 A botched,

00:23:34.840 I wonder if

00:23:35.780 it was botched.

00:23:38.260 How botched

00:23:39.140 was it?

00:23:41.680 Anyway,

00:23:42.340 so we will

00:23:43.300 someday know

00:23:43.880 the answer

00:23:44.300 whether we

00:23:44.980 overreacted

00:23:46.140 because of the

00:23:46.620 models or

00:23:47.220 because,

00:23:48.000 or we were

00:23:48.580 just really

00:23:49.000 super effective.

00:23:49.740 well now I

00:23:55.800 just want to

00:23:56.220 go look

00:23:57.220 into that

00:23:57.760 because that

00:23:59.540 looks like

00:23:59.960 that's going

00:24:00.400 to be the

00:24:00.740 big story.

00:24:02.380 So we're

00:24:02.640 up to 41,000

00:24:03.740 deaths in the

00:24:04.320 United States

00:24:04.760 from the

00:24:05.120 coronavirus.

00:24:06.440 The model

00:24:07.680 had been

00:24:08.520 lowered to

00:24:09.060 60.

00:24:10.280 I don't

00:24:10.980 see how

00:24:11.580 we're going

00:24:12.060 to stop

00:24:12.540 at 60.

00:24:14.580 Do you

00:24:15.060 believe that

00:24:15.620 we're,

00:24:15.920 so we have

00:24:16.340 41,000

00:24:17.200 and the

00:24:18.340 model was

00:24:18.960 lowered down

00:24:19.440 to 60?

00:24:20.200 Do you

00:24:20.740 think we're

00:24:21.260 going to

00:24:21.480 go from

00:24:22.180 41,000

00:24:23.660 already and

00:24:25.400 that by the

00:24:26.140 end of the

00:24:26.540 year we're

00:24:27.240 still going

00:24:27.860 to be below

00:24:28.340 60?

00:24:29.920 Or even

00:24:30.840 at 60?

00:24:31.680 Does that

00:24:32.340 seem reasonable

00:24:33.000 to you?

00:24:34.120 Now I get

00:24:34.820 that you're

00:24:36.460 going to

00:24:36.660 level off

00:24:37.220 and stuff,

00:24:38.080 but aren't

00:24:38.400 we just

00:24:38.780 sort of

00:24:39.160 pushing those

00:24:40.340 deaths into

00:24:40.960 the future?

00:24:42.380 I don't

00:24:42.740 really get

00:24:43.460 how we

00:24:45.240 would expect

00:24:45.900 like,

00:24:47.500 you know,

00:24:47.920 I'm no

00:24:48.340 expert

00:24:49.640 virology

00:24:51.540 modeler,

00:24:52.920 but

00:24:53.880 I'm no

00:24:56.220 modeler,

00:24:57.560 but it

00:24:58.240 seems to

00:24:58.740 be almost

00:24:59.480 impossible

00:25:00.240 that we

00:25:01.420 wouldn't

00:25:01.940 shoot past

00:25:02.780 that 60,000

00:25:03.840 number because

00:25:05.000 we'll be going

00:25:05.600 back to work

00:25:06.320 and of course

00:25:07.460 there'll be

00:25:07.880 flare-ups.

00:25:09.400 I mean,

00:25:09.620 I think we're

00:25:10.180 actually going

00:25:10.680 to hit 100,

00:25:11.460 right,

00:25:11.740 at our

00:25:12.060 current rate.

00:25:13.140 I would

00:25:13.800 think that

00:25:14.140 going back

00:25:14.580 to work

00:25:14.960 would put

00:25:15.380 you over

00:25:15.780 100,000

00:25:16.480 easily.

00:25:18.320 I would

00:25:18.920 think.

00:25:19.680 That would

00:25:20.060 still make

00:25:20.440 the models

00:25:20.880 wrong,

00:25:21.320 I think,

00:25:21.700 but I

00:25:23.080 think that's

00:25:23.520 where it's

00:25:23.780 going.

00:25:25.040 All right.

00:25:28.860 I said

00:25:29.600 if 100,000

00:25:30.260 people die,

00:25:31.140 Trump loses

00:25:32.020 re-election.

00:25:33.500 Well,

00:25:34.280 you know,

00:25:35.140 whenever I

00:25:36.480 make a

00:25:36.800 prediction

00:25:37.180 about the

00:25:38.200 election,

00:25:39.340 you should

00:25:40.020 always hear

00:25:40.520 a voice in

00:25:41.320 your head

00:25:41.660 that says,

00:25:42.700 unless

00:25:43.100 something

00:25:43.660 changes,

00:25:44.380 and then

00:25:45.380 the second

00:25:46.360 voice says

00:25:46.980 right after

00:25:47.480 that,

00:25:48.260 and something

00:25:49.060 will change

00:25:49.940 because it

00:25:50.440 always does.

00:25:52.120 So any

00:25:52.920 predictions

00:25:53.640 are sort

00:25:55.440 of absurd

00:25:56.040 because too

00:25:56.620 much is going

00:25:57.120 to change

00:25:58.020 between now

00:25:58.600 and then.

00:25:59.400 But I

00:26:01.720 believe that

00:26:02.860 because people

00:26:04.420 would feel

00:26:05.160 so happy

00:26:05.960 if it were

00:26:07.020 under 100,000,

00:26:09.200 that that would

00:26:09.980 pretty much

00:26:10.440 guarantee

00:26:10.880 election.

00:26:11.380 if it's

00:26:13.060 over 100,

00:26:14.900 it's going

00:26:16.260 to kind

00:26:16.660 of look

00:26:16.940 like Trump

00:26:18.060 was and

00:26:19.020 the governors

00:26:19.960 were right

00:26:20.720 to treat

00:26:22.800 this as a

00:26:23.460 serious

00:26:23.780 problem.

00:26:24.720 So there's

00:26:25.560 lots of

00:26:25.900 ways that

00:26:26.300 Trump can

00:26:26.740 win in

00:26:27.140 this.

00:26:28.000 Because if

00:26:28.380 it turns

00:26:28.700 out to

00:26:29.160 kill more 1.00

00:26:29.780 people, 1.00

00:26:30.380 then I

00:26:30.980 hate to

00:26:31.320 put that

00:26:31.820 in political

00:26:32.320 terms,

00:26:32.820 but if it

00:26:33.520 turns out

00:26:33.860 to be

00:26:34.100 worse than

00:26:34.780 the people

00:26:36.680 who were

00:26:37.080 not worried

00:26:37.700 thought,

00:26:38.220 they're

00:26:39.360 going to

00:26:39.560 say,

00:26:39.920 oh,

00:26:40.260 I guess

00:26:40.540 Trump was

00:26:41.060 right all

00:26:41.820 along.

00:26:42.340 It was

00:26:42.560 pretty bad.

00:26:44.240 So I

00:26:44.540 think the

00:26:45.000 worse it

00:26:46.320 is up to

00:26:47.040 a point

00:26:47.580 actually helps

00:26:48.820 him.

00:26:50.280 Let me put

00:26:51.300 numbers on

00:26:51.780 this.

00:26:52.040 If I had

00:26:52.340 to say,

00:26:53.540 let's say

00:26:53.960 it capped

00:26:55.240 at 150,000

00:26:59.600 just for a

00:27:00.580 conversation.

00:27:01.500 That's not a

00:27:02.140 prediction.

00:27:03.340 But let's

00:27:03.820 say at the

00:27:04.440 end of the

00:27:04.760 year,

00:27:05.400 by election

00:27:06.620 day,

00:27:06.860 there were

00:27:07.120 150,000

00:27:08.260 dead.

00:27:09.420 One of

00:27:10.020 the things

00:27:10.420 that that

00:27:10.800 would tell

00:27:11.200 you is

00:27:12.480 that it

00:27:12.780 was just

00:27:13.340 as bad

00:27:13.860 as you

00:27:14.140 thought,

00:27:14.880 because we

00:27:15.520 wouldn't even

00:27:15.940 be done.

00:27:17.240 That would

00:27:17.700 tell you that

00:27:18.220 by the end

00:27:18.660 of the year,

00:27:19.120 maybe it's

00:27:19.500 at 200

00:27:20.040 or something.

00:27:21.300 So I

00:27:22.380 think Trump

00:27:23.800 would actually

00:27:24.380 look better,

00:27:25.980 even if

00:27:26.760 death count

00:27:27.300 is higher,

00:27:28.200 up to a

00:27:29.180 point,

00:27:29.960 because then

00:27:30.680 people would

00:27:31.100 say,

00:27:31.460 okay,

00:27:31.780 he was

00:27:34.140 being pretty

00:27:35.860 tough on

00:27:36.300 this.

00:27:36.580 Yeah,

00:27:36.980 he seemed

00:27:37.900 a little

00:27:38.160 too optimistic

00:27:38.940 at first,

00:27:40.300 but now we

00:27:41.880 know that it

00:27:42.300 wasn't a

00:27:42.640 hoax.

00:27:43.360 Now,

00:27:44.400 what if it

00:27:46.180 goes the

00:27:46.520 other way?

00:27:47.380 What if this

00:27:47.940 41,000,

00:27:49.020 just like we're

00:27:50.620 so good at it,

00:27:51.700 it just goes

00:27:52.180 and stops

00:27:53.580 below 60,000?

00:27:55.660 We hope it

00:27:56.340 does.

00:27:57.220 What if it

00:27:57.620 does?

00:27:58.940 Will people

00:27:59.960 say,

00:28:00.540 yay,

00:28:01.500 President Trump,

00:28:02.360 you really

00:28:02.680 nailed it?

00:28:03.460 You did the

00:28:03.960 best that you

00:28:04.480 could possibly

00:28:05.060 do?

00:28:05.880 Probably not.

00:28:07.460 Because even

00:28:07.880 if we've got

00:28:08.440 these other

00:28:09.420 tests to

00:28:10.080 find out,

00:28:11.140 did the

00:28:12.180 mitigation

00:28:12.560 work,

00:28:13.220 or were

00:28:13.740 the models

00:28:14.260 wrong,

00:28:14.760 or was it

00:28:15.160 both?

00:28:15.980 Even with

00:28:16.560 that,

00:28:17.920 if there's a

00:28:18.660 small number

00:28:19.320 who are dead,

00:28:20.240 people are

00:28:20.620 going to say

00:28:20.940 it was all a

00:28:21.440 hoax and

00:28:21.880 you closed the

00:28:22.460 economy for

00:28:23.060 nothing.

00:28:23.880 Even though

00:28:24.420 that doesn't

00:28:24.820 make sense,

00:28:25.700 because we

00:28:26.040 don't know

00:28:26.360 what would

00:28:26.740 have happened

00:28:27.080 if we

00:28:27.360 hadn't done

00:28:27.720 it could

00:28:29.920 go either

00:28:30.260 way.

00:28:30.940 All right,

00:28:31.220 I think we

00:28:31.640 can go

00:28:32.860 check on

00:28:33.560 Kim Jong-un.

00:28:38.140 I would,

00:28:39.080 I would,

00:28:40.460 you know,

00:28:42.040 I'll tell

00:28:42.380 you,

00:28:42.980 somebody's

00:28:45.720 asking me

00:28:46.140 if I'm

00:28:46.420 stoned.

00:28:48.420 No,

00:28:48.960 not at the

00:28:49.360 moment,

00:28:49.700 as a matter

00:28:50.080 of fact.

00:28:51.460 I'm tired,

00:28:52.620 but I'm

00:28:53.100 not stoned.

00:28:57.260 I've got a

00:28:58.000 feeling Joe

00:28:58.700 Biden might

00:29:00.620 have an

00:29:01.080 announcement

00:29:01.500 this week.

00:29:02.800 I would say,

00:29:03.880 you know,

00:29:04.360 every day that

00:29:05.320 goes by that

00:29:05.960 you don't see

00:29:06.400 him in public

00:29:06.940 makes it more

00:29:08.060 of a certainty

00:29:08.700 that he's

00:29:10.440 being talked

00:29:10.940 out of the

00:29:11.280 race.

00:29:11.900 What we

00:29:12.240 don't know

00:29:12.780 is if there's

00:29:13.580 been any

00:29:14.060 decision about

00:29:14.840 who would

00:29:15.300 replace him

00:29:16.000 or even how

00:29:16.620 they would

00:29:16.880 handle that.

00:29:18.100 I mean,

00:29:18.860 you know,

00:29:19.460 there was a

00:29:20.460 report that

00:29:21.100 Biden was

00:29:21.780 starting to

00:29:23.080 pick his

00:29:23.640 cabinet picks.

00:29:24.640 No,

00:29:24.840 not his

00:29:25.120 cabinet.

00:29:26.400 There was a

00:29:26.980 report that

00:29:27.540 Biden was

00:29:28.020 trying to

00:29:28.360 pick his

00:29:28.700 transition team

00:29:29.700 for when he

00:29:30.220 won.

00:29:31.260 And I

00:29:31.580 thought to

00:29:31.880 myself,

00:29:32.740 I don't

00:29:33.340 think that's

00:29:33.820 happening.

00:29:35.800 I don't

00:29:36.520 think Joe

00:29:38.740 Biden is

00:29:39.320 picking a

00:29:39.820 transition team

00:29:40.680 for when he

00:29:41.260 wins.

00:29:41.800 I don't

00:29:42.080 think that's

00:29:42.760 happening.

00:29:43.920 Maybe,

00:29:45.120 but I don't

00:29:45.920 think so.

00:29:47.200 All right,

00:29:47.560 well,

00:29:47.760 I will see

00:29:48.160 you in the

00:29:48.440 morning.

00:29:48.780 Let's go

00:29:49.080 check the

00:29:49.540 news and

00:29:50.080 see you

00:29:51.000 once more.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 21, 2020

Episode 926 Scott Adams： Join Me to Ease Into a Great Night of Sleep. Yes, I am That Boring.

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