Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 928 Scott Adams： Free College, Teach Math to Pundits and Demise of the Green New Deal

00:00:00.000 Well, as the curtain begins to drop on another day in the land of coronavirus, we prepare

00:00:14.960 for a very special evening with Scott Adams, this time with whiteboards.

00:00:20.820 Yeah, yeah, whiteboards.

00:00:24.600 Right, I said plural whiteboards.

00:00:27.680 What is the proper plural name for whiteboards?

00:00:32.320 Whiteboard I.

00:00:34.220 No, that's not true.

00:00:36.800 But we'll get to that.

00:00:39.000 First, some quick hits.

00:00:42.280 Has anybody seen Joe Biden?

00:00:45.400 Joe Biden?

00:00:46.320 Anybody?

00:00:47.160 Has anybody seen Joe Biden?

00:00:49.780 Still nothing?

00:00:51.080 Okay.

00:00:53.540 I've got some tips for you if you're a protester.

00:00:58.480 If you plan to protest the restrictions on opening up the economy, and you see a sign

00:01:08.460 posted in your local town, and it mentions when the protests will be, and your sign says,

00:01:16.160 no masks, bring the kids.

00:01:22.320 That's not a real sign. 0.99

00:01:25.280 It might be a Russian sign, a Russian troll. 0.87

00:01:29.500 It might be a Democratic operative. 0.75

00:01:31.860 It might be somebody who just thought it was funny.

00:01:36.520 It might be China.

00:01:38.660 But you know what it isn't?

00:01:40.620 A real sign.

00:01:42.420 I say that because that was floating around the internet, and people were shocked.

00:01:47.320 Because they thought to themselves, are you serious?

00:01:51.640 Are you serious?

00:01:53.460 That they're going to have a protest, and they're actually saying, bring the kids and don't wear

00:01:57.800 masks?

00:01:58.980 Come on.

00:01:59.400 That can't be real.

00:02:00.660 It's outrageous.

00:02:01.980 It's outrageous.

00:02:03.480 You know what else it is?

00:02:05.320 It's a little bit too on the nose, isn't it?

00:02:08.600 Have you ever heard me say that before?

00:02:11.680 It's one of your best tells for a hoax.

00:02:15.080 The real world is kind of messy.

00:02:18.700 In the real world, usually things just remind you of other things.

00:02:22.780 You know, and sometimes there are two stories in the news that both involve tigers or something.

00:02:28.420 But when you see a story that is this perfect to the narrative, you know, that the narrative

00:02:35.200 being from, at least from the left, that the people going to these protests are not that

00:02:41.020 bright, right?

00:02:42.300 So that would be the narrative from the Democrats.

00:02:46.080 So this sign is a little too perfect because it fits the narrative.

00:02:51.660 Don't bring masks.

00:02:53.780 Now, what would a real sign say from real conservatives who were legitimately protesting for freedom?

00:03:04.140 What would a real sign say for people who really cared about individual freedom?

00:03:10.640 That's right.

00:03:11.480 It wouldn't tell you to bring a mask.

00:03:14.080 It wouldn't tell you not to bring a mask.

00:03:16.120 It wouldn't even suggest.

00:03:19.580 Right?

00:03:20.240 So your tip-off should be that no conservative organizer would tell people what to wear.

00:03:29.220 That's the opposite of freedom.

00:03:31.440 That's the opposite of what they're protesting. 0.99

00:03:33.140 So, of course, when it's so perfect to look contradictory and stupid, that's not a real sign. 0.97

00:03:41.300 Now, as I said on Twitter, if the Russians are not already organizing these protests, are they slipping? 0.99

00:03:53.540 What's up with Putin?

00:03:55.320 What's up with Putin?

00:03:56.940 This is sort of an obvious one, Putin.

00:03:59.700 If Putin is leaving this one alone, I mean, you might as well get rid of the KGB.

00:04:05.580 This one's sort of a layup.

00:04:07.200 All you've got to do is start a little Facebook page, put together a little protest, say, don't bring your masks, be sure to bring your kids.

00:04:17.400 Boom.

00:04:18.700 This is a social division.

00:04:19.900 So I wouldn't trust any of the protests to be genuine, actually.

00:04:24.120 Literally, I wouldn't trust any of them to be genuine.

00:04:27.880 Now, that doesn't mean that the people attending are not genuine, because I think they are.

00:04:32.360 The people attending are totally genuine.

00:04:35.000 But you've got to wonder about whose idea it was to pick the time and the date.

00:04:40.480 So I won't go so far as to say that they're all organized by other countries.

00:04:47.140 But you have to assume some are, right?

00:04:49.900 Don't you assume some are?

00:04:51.480 They have to be.

00:04:54.800 And I ask again, whatever happened to Black Lives Matter?

00:04:59.200 Did Black Lives Matter just decide that they succeeded and now they're done?

00:05:05.880 It's got to be a funding thing, right?

00:05:07.880 They must have lost funding somehow.

00:05:10.860 Here's good news and bad news.

00:05:12.460 There's another study that's not peer-reviewed yet that says hydroxychloroquine gave worse outcomes.

00:05:19.900 And even when paired with the azithromycin, it gave worse outcomes.

00:05:27.400 But what's weird is that they didn't say they paired it with zinc, which my understanding is that's sort of the magic part.

00:05:35.080 If you don't pair it with the zinc and the azithromycin, I don't think that even the people who say it works suggest that it would work without the zinc.

00:05:46.400 So you go to CNN and you see stories that say hydroxychloroquine doesn't work.

00:05:51.780 You go to Fox and you find stories that say it works.

00:05:55.220 And none of them are credible on either side.

00:05:58.680 None of them are credible.

00:05:59.720 So at this point, I'm going to still go with my 60-40, 60% chance that it doesn't work.

00:06:09.300 40% chance that it does.

00:06:11.220 But there's another thing that might have a lot of potential.

00:06:14.380 Some of you saw this.

00:06:15.520 So there's a doctor who noticed that there's something weird about the lungs of people who have coronavirus in that they could have very low oxygen, so low that you would expect them to actually be dead.

00:06:31.640 And they're still walking around and texting on their phones and stuff, even though their oxygen level is basically death level.

00:06:37.720 And apparently this is not common to other conditions.

00:06:43.120 If your oxygen gets below a certain level, normally you just pass out and die, I guess, however you die.

00:06:51.100 So the thought is that that might be the earliest thing you could catch, at least of the symptoms that are the dangerous ones.

00:06:59.740 By the time it gets in your lungs, that's the danger.

00:07:01.640 So the thinking is that you might be able to catch a whole bunch of early cases, then maybe that does make a difference if you've got some therapeutics.

00:07:11.940 But at the very least, you can pull them out and, you know, you can isolate them.

00:07:16.420 So that could be huge because the cost of a little oxygen sensor, I'm sure they're all sold out.

00:07:22.760 My guess is that every one is sold out everywhere.

00:07:25.260 But they're not hard to make because, you know, it's a pretty small electronic device.

00:07:29.320 So I would think there's a non-zero chance, and I realize I'm being pretty optimistic with this,

00:07:37.800 there's a non-zero chance that the oxygen sensors could be a third of the solution, you know, with whatever else turns out to work.

00:07:48.120 So I'd say that's very encouraging.

00:07:50.740 I want to give you a little math lesson on virality.

00:07:59.920 But you need to check my work, okay?

00:08:03.920 You should not be getting...

00:08:05.720 So what I'm going to teach you next, you should not be getting from me, because I don't know what I'm talking about.

00:08:11.460 But I think I'm right.

00:08:13.000 If I'm not, just tell me and I'll get rid of this video right away.

00:08:17.480 So I'm going to go out on a limb here.

00:08:20.280 I think what I'm saying makes sense.

00:08:22.340 You decide.

00:08:24.140 So here's a little quiz.

00:08:27.120 Which virus is worse?

00:08:31.300 Which virus is worse?

00:08:33.060 Would you rather have a virus with a 1% death rate, with a R4, I'm not sure if I'm expressing that right,

00:08:39.820 but the idea is that one person might give it to four people on average.

00:08:46.120 Or a 0.01% death rate with an R2 virality.

00:08:53.660 All right, what do you say?

00:08:54.800 Which one is worse?

00:08:58.720 Which one is worse?

00:09:01.760 And by the way, these are not real viruses.

00:09:03.980 I'm just making up these numbers.

00:09:05.900 Which one is worse?

00:09:06.920 This is more like a mild flu.

00:09:17.580 All right, so this is like a mild flu that we get every year.

00:09:21.780 This one destroys civilization.

00:09:28.320 That's how different they are.

00:09:30.360 This one, you lose a few days of work.

00:09:33.620 This one destroys civilization.

00:09:36.920 Now, what we're seeing from the pundits is consistently confusing 1% and 0.01%.

00:09:47.220 You've seen this all over the place, right?

00:09:49.540 And the people who are telling you that we should reopen the economy right away because it's just like the regular flu are saying,

00:10:00.440 hey, the regular flu is just 1% and this one is too.

00:10:04.740 No, they're confusing 1% with 0.01%, which would be the regular flu.

00:10:12.200 The best we know is that coronavirus is, you know, 10 times more deadly.

00:10:18.000 And again, all of these numbers could change by an order of magnitude.

00:10:22.440 We're just, I'm just giving you the concept.

00:10:24.360 So don't get hung up on the numbers I'm putting here.

00:10:26.680 I'm speaking conceptually.

00:10:30.780 So the first thing they get wrong is they confuse 1% and 0.01%.

00:10:34.820 If you've made that mistake, you should just retire.

00:10:38.660 You know, you should just leave the conversation if you can't tell the difference between those two things.

00:10:45.140 Secondly, they completely ignore the virality difference.

00:10:49.420 Now, my understanding is that the normal flu has whatever the number is.

00:10:54.660 I don't think it's two, but whatever that number is, is presumed to be, and again, we don't know for sure

00:11:01.520 because you'd have to know a lot more about the infections and the asymptomatic people and all that.

00:11:06.800 But the assumption is that it's way more viral.

00:11:11.300 So if you forget the R part, there's no point in even comparing them

00:11:16.840 because you're just ignoring a big part of the equation.

00:11:20.800 Now, why would 1 in 100?

00:11:29.420 I'm looking at all your comments, and you have many of them.

00:11:36.460 100,000 American dies at the Hong Kong flu.

00:11:39.700 All right.

00:11:40.520 So did you get my point?

00:11:42.740 Now, watch in the comments how many people are going to struggle with this.

00:11:47.640 Because what we're hearing from the pundits, let's see if I can do this.

00:11:52.680 What we've heard from the pundits is that we might have a weak virus.

00:11:58.600 So we've heard that it might be a weaker virus than we thought, only 1%.

00:12:02.600 But if it's still that viral, it's the worst thing that ever happened.

00:12:06.300 Now, do we know that the coronavirus is more viral?

00:12:12.220 Do we know that for sure?

00:12:13.660 The answer is no.

00:12:15.700 But we've seen what it did to nursing homes. 0.72

00:12:19.380 And that doesn't look normal, right?

00:12:21.540 Have we heard of other nursing homes where a regular flu just takes out the nursing home?

00:12:26.640 What about the cruise ships?

00:12:28.140 There must be the regular flu on cruise ships practically every cruise.

00:12:34.100 But have we ever heard an entire cruise ship where people are dying on board?

00:12:38.920 No.

00:12:39.200 So there's clearly something about coronavirus that is impacting hospitals in a way regular flu doesn't, impacting nursing homes, impacting cruise ships.

00:12:49.860 So that all suggests that it has more virality.

00:12:53.840 And even if this death rate is much lower than the original estimates, it would still destroy civilization if left to spread.

00:13:05.400 So what is 1% of 7 billion?

00:13:07.620 Let's say we never come up with a vaccine, which I think is entirely possible.

00:13:12.700 I would say I have low confidence that we're going to have a vaccine for this kind of ever.

00:13:19.220 I mean, I'd love to think that we would, but honestly, I don't think we're going to.

00:13:22.520 I think we'll have to reach herd immunity, and that's probably the end of the story.

00:13:27.120 Now, that's not bad news, because maybe that's just the only way to get there.

00:13:32.440 Death rates relate to different locales.

00:13:37.940 Yeah, there's definitely a difference in the death rates, but I heard there's 30 different versions of it.

00:13:47.320 All right.

00:13:47.900 Now, what did most people, the pundits, say when they found out that there was a study that maybe there were a lot more people infected?

00:13:56.160 They said, oh, this is good news, because if there are a lot more people who have the coronavirus than we thought,

00:14:03.280 then the percentage of people dying from it is way smaller, and that's where you got down to the 1%.

00:14:08.500 And people hailed that as good news, and then they mistakenly said 1% is the same as 0.01%, and then it all went to hell.

00:14:19.340 So you should ignore everybody who's tried to do any math on this, including me.

00:14:24.120 I saw this argument from Larry Schweikart on Twitter, who believes there's somebody named Dr. Lee, I think a British doctor,

00:14:35.360 who has determined that lockdowns make it worse.

00:14:40.700 Now, here's another tip.

00:14:42.760 If you can only find one doctor to back your theory, you should be a little less confident about it than tweeting it.

00:14:51.540 If you can find several doctors that would agree with you that the social isolation doesn't make any difference,

00:15:01.480 if there are several doctors, I'd say you could maybe take a stab at that being true.

00:15:07.800 But if you only got that one, I would say hold off on your confidence there.

00:15:12.120 The other thing Larry Schweikart says that I would take issue with is that economists have estimated that you kill 40,000 people

00:15:22.280 for every 1% extra unemployment.

00:15:27.100 You've heard that, right?

00:15:28.220 You've probably heard on the news.

00:15:29.640 Every 1% in unemployment kills 40,000 people.

00:15:33.240 Do you believe that?

00:15:34.400 Do you believe that 1% extra unemployment will kill 40,000 people?

00:15:43.640 Well, there's something left out, don't you think?

00:15:46.540 Do you think there's a variable left out?

00:15:49.100 Time.

00:15:50.360 Time.

00:15:51.960 How about time?

00:15:53.540 Because if everybody in the country were unemployed for one week,

00:15:58.760 almost nobody would die, right?

00:16:03.520 So it wouldn't matter how much unemployment it was.

00:16:06.340 If it only lasted a week and nobody starved to death, probably nobody would die.

00:16:11.580 How about if it lasts two weeks?

00:16:14.720 Two weeks, probably almost nobody.

00:16:18.540 I mean, you could argue that maybe a few extra people would commit suicide because of the lockdown,

00:16:24.360 losing businesses and stuff.

00:16:25.900 But I think there are a whole bunch of other people who don't die because we're not in traffic.

00:16:31.960 I don't know.

00:16:33.500 So it seems to me that when the economists say 40,000 die for every 1% of unemployment,

00:16:41.780 they have to mean long-term unemployment, right?

00:16:44.860 I don't think they mean that unemployment has a bump over the summer

00:16:49.400 and then fairly quickly in the next several months gets back to a normal rate.

00:16:55.900 I don't think they're talking about that.

00:16:58.380 You know, that's not the kind of unemployment that kills 40,000 people per point.

00:17:03.820 So that's the math lesson for pundits.

00:17:11.380 Now, there are days when the simulation serves up the most delicious of stories.

00:17:20.480 Today is such a day.

00:17:22.260 If you have not heard this yet, prepare to receive a delicious story.

00:17:28.700 A story that tastes so good, you can taste it with your ears.

00:17:33.140 That's how good it is.

00:17:34.120 And it goes like this.

00:17:39.160 Yes, that is Christine on the piano downstairs.

00:17:43.040 I told her she could play while I was on Periscope so I'd have some background music.

00:17:47.480 So this little tidbit comes to you courtesy of Michael Schellenberger writing in Forbes.

00:17:56.900 If you're not following Michael Schellenberger on Twitter, you really should.

00:18:01.800 He has some of the best content you'll see.

00:18:04.080 And he wrote a little summary and review of a new film produced by Michael Moore.

00:18:12.600 You all know Michael Moore, right?

00:18:15.620 I don't have to describe who Michael Moore is.

00:18:17.520 You all know him.

00:18:18.840 He's got a new documentary.

00:18:20.000 If you haven't heard what it's about, prepare your ears for a delicious story.

00:18:30.300 I mean, you're actually going to be able to taste this in your ears.

00:18:32.400 It's so good.

00:18:33.420 It's going to go in your ears.

00:18:35.000 It's going to embrace your brain.

00:18:37.660 And it's just going to massage it.

00:18:40.040 That's how good it is.

00:18:41.640 All right, here it is.

00:18:43.080 This is Michael Moore's documentary that he's produced.

00:18:47.240 I don't think he's in it.

00:18:48.100 And it's being released free to the public on YouTube today.

00:18:53.860 And the 50th anniversary of Earth Day.

00:18:56.120 Good.

00:18:56.720 Well, you'd expect Michael Moore would care about Earth Day and the environment.

00:19:01.320 Because we know he cares a lot about the environment.

00:19:03.920 So, what's the name of this?

00:19:06.480 It's called Planet of the Humans.

00:19:08.840 Planet of the Humans.

00:19:09.960 And what's it about?

00:19:10.860 It's about the documentary reveals that industrial wind farms, solar farms,

00:19:18.100 biomass, and biofuels are wrecking natural environments.

00:19:24.440 What?

00:19:26.660 That's right.

00:19:28.680 It's a documentary produced by Michael Moore

00:19:32.420 that suggests that the Green New Deal type of technologies don't work.

00:19:39.940 And when I say don't work, I mean that they cause as much problems or more than they solve.

00:19:46.540 Now, did you see this coming?

00:19:50.500 Because I did not see this coming.

00:19:53.220 But I'm going to say something that I've also said about Bill Maher.

00:19:58.080 You've heard me talk about Bill Maher.

00:20:00.140 And one of the things I like about him, even when I disagree with specific opinions,

00:20:04.740 is it's obvious that he is an actual flexible thinker.

00:20:10.440 If you give him a better argument, if you give him data, he's capable of changing his mind.

00:20:17.380 Very few people can do that, especially public figures.

00:20:20.920 Michael Moore, if you recall, was one of the first Democrats who said,

00:20:26.080 this Trump thing is real.

00:20:28.180 He's reading the public right.

00:20:30.120 He could win.

00:20:30.840 Do you remember?

00:20:32.540 He was the one who could peer through the bubble.

00:20:37.540 Everybody else was lost in the bubble, and they couldn't see it.

00:20:40.820 They were actually blind to it.

00:20:43.040 But Michael Moore, whatever you say about him,

00:20:46.620 you know, hold your opinion of Michael Moore's politics,

00:20:49.720 the thing he said that made you mad that time,

00:20:52.120 the fact he doesn't go to the gym as much as you want.

00:20:55.520 But he is a flexible mind.

00:21:00.840 And surprisingly, you know, maybe you don't expect it.

00:21:04.060 But I consider him a very flexible thinker, like Bill Maher, in a good way.

00:21:11.220 And I think what happened is he came upon this honestly.

00:21:15.080 I think he funded this thing.

00:21:18.420 Probably didn't know where it would end up.

00:21:21.040 And I think it ended up in a place that maybe wasn't his first choice.

00:21:24.620 And I think he had the intellectual integrity to go ahead and say he produced this thing.

00:21:32.200 So, clap, clap, clap for Michael Moore.

00:21:39.060 Now, I'm planning on watching it tonight with Christina, if we can find it.

00:21:44.020 I'm sure we can find it.

00:21:45.240 So, I'll tell you if it's as interesting as I think it is.

00:21:49.700 But it feels as if the Green New Deal is so dead.

00:21:53.820 Yeah, this chair is a fire.

00:21:56.280 That's what you hear.

00:21:58.520 What a great thing to be playing.

00:22:00.900 All right.

00:22:03.440 Let me tell you a story.

00:22:04.680 And then I am going to amaze you by flipping around my whiteboard and completely redesigning college.

00:22:15.700 Are you ready for this?

00:22:17.280 I'm going to redesign college so it's free, almost.

00:22:21.740 It's going to be so close to free, you barely can tell the difference.

00:22:25.740 And it's going to be fairly quick.

00:22:28.580 And it's fairly easy.

00:22:30.480 Do you believe it?

00:22:31.380 Before we show you the amazingness, which is the other side of my whiteboard, let me tell you this story.

00:22:40.280 It was 1979.

00:22:43.160 I had just graduated college, Oneonta, New York.

00:22:46.480 And I took my belongings from my dorm room and I moved them back to Wyndham, New York, where I grew up, my family home.

00:22:54.860 And there I traded my car, an old Dawson 510.

00:23:01.000 I traded it to my sister for a one-way ticket to California.

00:23:05.760 Because I made this calculation.

00:23:08.240 My calculation was there may never be another time in my life when I have a completely blank slate.

00:23:15.600 I can actually move anywhere I want.

00:23:20.760 And so the first thing I should do to improve my odds of a good life is to simply move where I have the greatest odds of a good life.

00:23:29.980 Someplace that has good weather, good economics, good travel, you know, just good everything.

00:23:35.500 Good everything that you need.

00:23:37.280 And so I sold that car for a one-way ticket to California.

00:23:42.420 I had two suitcases and $2,000 that I got for graduation plus some of my own money.

00:23:49.800 And I went to San Francisco and, you know, long story short, made my life here.

00:23:55.480 One of the best decisions I ever made because I moved from a place with no opportunity to a place with unlimited opportunity.

00:24:03.440 And then I took advantage of it.

00:24:04.820 Now, you might say to yourself, the other way to look at my situation is I had nothing to lose.

00:24:12.180 Because I didn't.

00:24:13.140 I had nothing.

00:24:13.880 So I had nothing to lose.

00:24:15.880 Very rare to have a blank slate.

00:24:19.340 But when you get one, do not let it go.

00:24:22.900 If you ever get a chance to start anything, whatever it is, from scratch,

00:24:28.380 something that you never get to start from scratch, such as your entire life,

00:24:32.640 if you ever get that chance, don't blow it.

00:24:36.600 This is like solid gold.

00:24:38.100 It's the one time you can really make something out of nothing.

00:24:41.560 You know, you can get something done.

00:24:43.820 Now, this brings us to the coronavirus.

00:24:46.560 The bad news about the coronavirus, you already know.

00:24:50.160 People dying, the economy falling apart.

00:24:54.280 But there's one weird aspect of this in that it destroys everything we assumed about big institutions and the way we used to do things.

00:25:08.020 I'm sure that working at home will be a thing.

00:25:11.100 And I'm sure that online education got a big boost.

00:25:15.080 But how could you make college almost free and way better, way better?

00:25:26.280 And here's how.

00:25:28.440 So I'm going to call it free, meaning that it's almost free.

00:25:32.440 You know, nothing's free-free.

00:25:33.360 But it goes like this.

00:25:36.460 You would first develop a Yelp-like search engine for classes.

00:25:42.180 And the Yelp search engine would be able to search on any platform.

00:25:47.000 So even within a subscription service, it would be able to search for a specific class.

00:25:53.580 So let's say you wanted to take a specific class.

00:25:56.800 You could look at the ratings.

00:25:57.960 And you could say, oh, there's one on YouTube, but there's a more highly rated one on Udemy.

00:26:02.880 So Udemy, I don't know how you say that.

00:26:05.020 So you go there instead.

00:26:07.580 How hard would it be to build a Yelp search engine for individual classes?

00:26:14.000 Not that hard.

00:26:14.860 You know, that's well within the range of stuff we do, right?

00:26:21.780 Let me fix this.

00:26:23.100 By the way, I'm dyslexic as hell.

00:26:29.720 I don't know if I've ever mentioned that, but just one of my many oddities.

00:26:35.920 But that was actually just a spelling error, not dyslexia.

00:26:41.320 So here's my idea.

00:26:42.800 I would like to create a major that's useful.

00:26:46.740 We all know that higher education evolved over time.

00:26:51.220 And because it just sort of evolved and got ossified and, you know, it just doesn't need

00:26:56.360 to change, it just didn't change.

00:26:58.700 And it's just a mess.

00:26:59.860 So I would like to invent a major, which is the major that would be free.

00:27:06.200 So you'd start with this, and then if it works, you can expand it to other majors especially.

00:27:11.260 But I would invent a major called life strategy.

00:27:14.560 And life strategy would be a not-too-deep dive about all of the good stuff.

00:27:20.160 You know, the 80% that matters that you can get quickly in these and maybe other situations.

00:27:27.740 So every skill requires communication, persuasion, economics.

00:27:31.160 Statistics, I don't mean in the math sense necessarily.

00:27:34.120 You could do a little math.

00:27:35.500 But mostly I'm talking about practical statistics.

00:27:39.020 An example of that would be the idea of diversifying your portfolio.

00:27:43.920 That's practical statistics.

00:27:45.160 Another example would be having a talent stack where every time you add a talent that works

00:27:51.580 well together, you multiply your odds of success.

00:27:55.500 So when I say statistics, I mean figuring out the odds of things.

00:27:59.900 This looks like a better chance than this.

00:28:01.980 How do you compare things?

00:28:03.000 That sort of thing.

00:28:04.440 You don't want to teach people a little bit of design, a little bit of history.

00:28:07.860 History is useful not because it repeats, but because you see a whole bunch of patterns.

00:28:14.000 So the more patterns you see of like, oh, when history was like that, the thing you have

00:28:18.860 to watch for is this thing.

00:28:20.660 So the more patterns you see, the more well-rounded you are.

00:28:24.620 You should learn a little bit about managing, how to hire and fire.

00:28:28.380 Let's see.

00:28:29.020 I can do a better job of lining this up for you.

00:28:32.500 How to hire and fire.

00:28:34.260 A little bit about startups if you wanted to start your own company.

00:28:37.000 Basically, banking and investing, one of the biggest needs, especially in the lower-income

00:28:41.760 community, and you hear this from Black Lives Matter and activists in those communities,

00:28:48.480 that people really need to learn how to handle money.

00:28:52.000 You take it for granted if you've been around a family that knows how to do it.

00:28:56.440 You just sort of pick it up by association.

00:28:59.080 But if you've never learned how to manage credit or get a loan or any of that stuff, how

00:29:04.860 would you know?

00:29:05.340 If you didn't have anybody, you could ask.

00:29:07.900 So you should teach all those basic things, how to stack your skills, a little bit about

00:29:12.900 technology so you'd understand the basics of what's an app, what's the cloud, how do

00:29:20.160 things work together.

00:29:21.260 Now, the details of all this are highly variable.

00:29:24.440 So I'm just giving you the concept.

00:29:26.840 Then we imagine that it's certified.

00:29:29.100 Could be certified by the government.

00:29:30.860 Imagine, if you will, that the government in the United States said, we're going to have

00:29:36.140 one just amazing class.

00:29:38.500 Like anybody who gets through these classes, you're really going to want to hire.

00:29:43.480 Now, the exception would be the STEM and some specialties.

00:29:47.720 You still need lawyers and doctors and scientists and stuff.

00:29:50.660 So they're not taking this major.

00:29:53.080 This major is just for the generalists, the people who might want to start a company, the

00:29:58.140 people who are going to go to work for a Fortune 500 company and be trained within some special

00:30:03.520 job, et cetera.

00:30:04.740 So the idea was maybe the government could certify it, but maybe individuals could.

00:30:10.200 You know, what about me?

00:30:11.980 Could I make one and then certify it?

00:30:13.960 Well, why not?

00:30:16.600 If all you need is credibility.

00:30:19.260 So, well, I don't have that kind of credibility.

00:30:21.540 Imagine if somebody who did have credibility came up with a set of classes and said, if you

00:30:27.440 do this many hours and these things and meet this checklist, you've got a degree.

00:30:33.720 How long should it take you to get this degree?

00:30:37.180 I say one year.

00:30:39.620 I say one year.

00:30:41.280 And you could do it at night.

00:30:42.660 You could do it at home.

00:30:43.840 I think this degree is one year.

00:30:46.800 Now, if you're full-time, you know, maybe two years, part-time or something.

00:30:50.900 So here's, let me make a bold claim, all right?

00:30:55.380 I know you like it when I make cocky, unsupported, bold claims, but that wouldn't be me if I didn't

00:31:02.500 do that, right?

00:31:03.660 Here's my bold claim.

00:31:05.080 You take a group of 100 students chosen randomly from any community except the black community. 0.80

00:31:16.300 So it's any other group.

00:31:17.980 You take 100 of them.

00:31:20.080 And I'll take 100 African-American students from the poorest school. 0.99

00:31:25.300 And let's assume that they have good enough grades so that they could qualify for this.

00:31:29.900 You'd probably need some minimum standard.

00:31:31.640 You know, probably a high school education, high school degree.

00:31:35.180 I'll take 100 African-American, low-income kids, and I'll give them some version of strategy. 1.00

00:31:42.520 That's what they'll learn.

00:31:43.640 It might only even be one year, but that's what they'll get.

00:31:47.340 And then you let the other, the control group, the 100, everybody else, they take whatever

00:31:52.820 they want.

00:31:54.100 Now, you subtract out the STEM people because they're all going to get good jobs.

00:31:58.020 That ruins the experiment.

00:32:00.120 So in both sides, if anybody's STEM on either side, you toss them out.

00:32:04.120 So you just compare my 100 African-American students from a poor neighborhood who have

00:32:09.660 learned solid gold strategy.

00:32:12.880 They understand how to manage money, how to start businesses.

00:32:16.960 They've seen lots of historical patterns.

00:32:19.460 They learned how to network.

00:32:20.600 I forgot the right networking, but networking would be one of the skills that would be up

00:32:24.540 here.

00:32:24.640 They've learned business writing, they can give a speech, and they have these skills.

00:32:30.240 And here's my cocky claim.

00:32:33.560 Check with me in 10 years, and my group of 100 African-American students from a poor neighborhood

00:32:40.880 will all be, on average, will be earning more money than the control group. 0.99

00:32:46.140 Because the control group took, you know, dumbass college courses. 0.99

00:32:51.880 You know, they were taking sociology and anthropology and, you know, French literature and bullshit. 0.99

00:32:57.680 And 100 of my hypothetical African-American students from a poor neighborhood just got solid gold 0.94

00:33:06.080 life strategy that works because of math.

00:33:09.880 You know, the math of, if you try 10 things, one of them might work, it's pretty strong math.

00:33:19.140 The math of, if you diversify your portfolio, you're not going to lose it all by making one

00:33:24.220 dumb gamble, it's just math, right?

00:33:27.260 It's very simple math, but it's just math. 0.98

00:33:29.020 And skill stacking, the idea that you can cleverly stack your skills and that improves your odds.

00:33:35.880 Again, it's just math.

00:33:37.980 So you give me the group who runs their life based on the math of life, the things we know

00:33:44.380 are the best stuff, the things that combine best, always have the best career potential,

00:33:49.120 the things that let you see the furthest and manage things the most effectively.

00:33:53.480 That's my bet.

00:33:55.480 My bet is I'll give a one-year education to people and they will be ahead in income in

00:34:00.620 10 years.

00:34:02.740 So let me see in the comments what part of this do you think is impractical.

00:34:10.300 Now, there's an assumed part of it that, you know, is unstated, which is that the free

00:34:15.400 market would allow the quality of these classes to continually improve.

00:34:20.200 And some of these classes might be free, like on YouTube, and some of them might be, and

00:34:27.920 some of them might be, well, somebody says racism, I don't even know how that fits into

00:34:33.240 this conversation.

00:34:35.100 And so some of them might be free, some of them might cost, you know, $20 because they're

00:34:39.600 so good.

00:34:40.800 It's like the best rated class for, you know, organic chemistry.

00:34:45.220 But organic chemistry is so bad that you'd be willing to pay $20 to get the good one,

00:34:51.200 you know, so you'd have a chance.

00:34:54.640 Would corporations back it?

00:34:56.460 Well, they would if the government gave it credentials, and they would if they saw what

00:35:01.940 the kids were learning, and they would if you had a little bit of a track record to

00:35:07.020 show that those kids perform better.

00:35:08.900 So I think you would have to, you'd probably have to subsidize it or something for a while

00:35:14.860 just to test it.

00:35:17.360 Somebody said Jordan Peterson had a similar idea.

00:35:20.760 That does not surprise me.

00:35:22.660 No, I would not call this like a brilliant, innovative, new idea that nobody ever had.

00:35:29.120 The only claim I'm going to make is this more like a prediction?

00:35:32.760 Accreditation, because this is all easy, right?

00:35:36.000 Don't you know that there will be a Yelp for college classes that are online, you know,

00:35:42.780 in other classes?

00:35:43.520 You know that's coming, right?

00:35:44.940 It's just too obvious that that would someday exist.

00:35:48.260 So does it need credentials?

00:35:51.160 Well, it helps.

00:35:52.920 It helps.

00:35:53.940 Accreditation is what I should say, not credentials.

00:35:57.100 Need to add the scientific method in the major.

00:36:03.520 I thought I, actually I did have, thank you for that.

00:36:08.200 I did have the scientific method on my first draft, and I missed it when I wrote it out here.

00:36:15.200 Scientific method.

00:36:19.820 And also networking is the other one that I forgot.

00:36:24.160 And my pen's running out.

00:36:27.100 So there's that.

00:36:28.520 All right.

00:36:29.840 So, what do you think?

00:36:35.080 Where did they learn how to interact socially?

00:36:38.600 That should also be one of the classes.

00:36:41.800 And I know this sounds like I'm making this up, but I swear that was also on the first draft.

00:36:48.880 Social.

00:36:49.280 Social.

00:36:55.940 You can imagine other things, too, such as learning how to travel.

00:37:02.520 You know, if you were a poor kid and you'd literally never been on an airplane,

00:37:07.140 wouldn't you like a one-day class, at least, to teach you, how do you book a flight?

00:37:11.840 How does anybody fly?

00:37:15.040 You know, there are a lot of things that you just assume that people know, but it's only because you've been around it.

00:37:19.400 If you've never been around it, you'd have no way to know how to book a flight and navigate an airport.

00:37:24.320 You wouldn't even try.

00:37:25.020 Add hypnosis and negotiation.

00:37:32.060 Well, that's actually under persuasion.

00:37:34.340 So each of these categories have subcategories.

00:37:37.680 You know, communication would include speeches and writing and maybe social media.

00:37:45.120 You could start a school with it.

00:37:47.020 Well, the whole point is to not start a school.

00:37:50.540 The whole point is that you don't need a physical school.

00:37:56.020 But you can't make governments do it.

00:37:58.060 Well, that's true.

00:38:02.480 Could you do it for high school?

00:38:04.160 I think you could.

00:38:06.060 You know, it seems to me that homeschooling is likely to be good.

00:38:10.960 You know, I have, of course, a little bit of experience with kids in school recently.

00:38:17.820 And I'll tell you my personal opinion, which is matched somewhat by the kids themselves.

00:38:23.400 School is kind of a horror.

00:38:26.720 You know, kids today, I just feel sorry for them because school sounds, from the social perspective, you know, because they're bullies and mean people and everybody's fighting to be liked and stuff.

00:38:39.640 And the pressure, it actually sounds kind of terrible.

00:38:43.200 I mean, I don't know how bad it was when I was a kid, because you forget.

00:38:46.280 You know, you don't really remember exactly what it was like.

00:38:48.900 But I don't remember hating it.

00:38:50.440 But today, it looks like it's just a pretty bad deal.

00:38:57.300 Critical thinking.

00:38:58.640 Did I forget that one, too? 1.00

00:39:01.400 Damn. 0.99

00:39:01.760 I had a logic course up there. 0.99

00:39:05.660 I think critical thinking is the better term for it.

00:39:09.180 But, yeah.

00:39:12.680 So, but anyway, you see the point, right?

00:39:14.600 You see the point that if you spent a little time, you could come up with a life strategy class that would be better than anything that anybody's learning.

00:39:21.580 All right.

00:39:22.200 That's all I got for you today.

00:39:23.660 Give you, and I will talk to you in the morning.

00:39:33.400 We got lots of fun stuff to talk about.

00:39:36.620 And tonight, you're going to have a wonderful night's sleep.

00:39:40.140 I hope the dulcet tones of Christina on the piano have put you in the mood to drift off thinking about all the great ways that you can reinvent yourself.

00:39:51.540 Because if you find yourself in a situation where there's nothing to lose, well, then, you're free.

00:40:00.340 If you really want freedom, freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose, as Janice Joplin famously said before she died of an overdose.

00:40:11.260 But, of course, that takes away the motivational quality of it.

00:40:16.000 All right.

00:40:17.440 I'll talk to you in the morning.

00:40:19.460 Have a great night.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 22, 2020

Episode 928 Scott Adams： Free College, Teach Math to Pundits and Demise of the Green New Deal

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