Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 23, 2020


Episode 930 Scott Adams： Bedtime Stories of Heroics and Failures. Plus Your Questions.


Episode Stats

Length

51 minutes

Words per Minute

148.14694

Word Count

7,611

Sentence Count

596

Misogynist Sentences

9

Hate Speech Sentences

2


Summary

A story about artificial intelligence and the golden egg. by Scott Adams Read by Ian McKellen Book: "The Golden Egg" by Robert Kiyosaki The Golden Egg is a story about a kid who discovers that he can talk to a computer, but it's funnier when he's with someone else.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum
00:00:07.120 Hey everybody, come on in here. It's time for Bedtime Stories with Scott.
00:00:15.560 It's one of your favorite times of the day. It's right up there with the morning.
00:00:21.880 The morning being your other favorite part of the day.
00:00:24.420 Okay, drumming. Well, I'm working on my paradiddles.
00:00:30.800 I know that sounds bad, but that's actually a drummer term.
00:00:35.620 Yes, working on my paradiddle.
00:00:38.940 Let's see, it goes like this.
00:00:43.620 Okay, needs work.
00:00:44.680 Well, well, well. I thought I would begin with a demonstration of artificial intelligence.
00:00:55.880 Now, the way this is going to work is I have a hypothesis that I could write a program that would pass the Turing test.
00:01:05.280 Now, the Turing test, most of you know, is a test that if you were talking to, let's say, a computer that was behind a curtain,
00:01:14.780 and you couldn't tell if it was a human or a computer,
00:01:19.480 and let's say you were communicating by text so that you can't tell anything by the voice,
00:01:24.440 could you tell that you were getting a message from a real person or a computer?
00:01:30.300 So, if you can't tell if you're talking to a real person, that is passing the Turing test, named after Turing.
00:01:40.520 So, in a moment, I'm going to give you a demonstration in which I will play the part of the computer.
00:01:48.140 Now, like a computer, I won't actually know what you're saying,
00:01:52.480 but I'm going to have a conversation with you as if you're having an actual conversation with me.
00:01:58.840 So, you can play along at home, and here's how it works.
00:02:06.060 I will be your talkative friend.
00:02:09.560 I'll tell you that I'm going to tell you a story, but I'm going to leave moments when you can talk to me.
00:02:16.680 But rather than being some dumb old AI program, even though I won't know what you're saying,
00:02:21.880 don't put it in the comments.
00:02:24.020 Say it out loud.
00:02:26.120 It's funnier if there's somebody else in the room.
00:02:28.160 So, say it out loud as if you're answering me or you're talking to me.
00:02:33.120 And I will simply respond, and you'll be amazed how good this is.
00:02:38.760 You know, hold on, hold on.
00:02:39.720 Just hold that thought.
00:02:41.060 See what I did there?
00:02:42.420 It was like I was talking to you, right?
00:02:44.460 Because that's how a real person would talk to you.
00:02:47.780 What?
00:02:48.940 Yeah.
00:02:50.460 See what I did there?
00:02:51.400 I acted like I was talking to you.
00:02:53.660 Now, that's what it's going to look like.
00:02:56.080 So, I'm going to tell you a story, but I'm going to pause every now and then, and I'm going to act like you said something to me.
00:03:02.720 So, it's funnier if you actually say something, as long as there's somebody else with you.
00:03:07.440 It might be funny if it's just you and your dog or something, but it would be way better if there's somebody else in the room.
00:03:12.920 So, this is a story I like to call, what?
00:03:18.580 Yeah.
00:03:20.180 Yeah, it's, you probably haven't heard this story.
00:03:24.820 Well, maybe you've heard it.
00:03:25.800 I don't know.
00:03:26.440 But just hold on.
00:03:28.000 Hold that thought.
00:03:29.000 Let me just tell you my story.
00:03:31.200 And I'm sure you have good stories, too.
00:03:33.220 But let me just tell you the story.
00:03:37.880 By the way, did you do something with your hair?
00:03:40.300 Your hair, you look, I don't know.
00:03:44.480 Did you lose weight?
00:03:46.540 Yeah.
00:03:46.980 Oh, don't be modest.
00:03:49.920 You've been walking, haven't you?
00:03:51.900 Been taking walks?
00:03:52.980 Yeah.
00:03:53.900 It's great, isn't it?
00:03:55.140 I know.
00:03:56.200 You probably, same with me.
00:03:58.040 You wish you could do more of it.
00:04:00.060 But, you know, when the coronavirus stuff is over, I hope we can keep that habit up.
00:04:06.320 Yeah, and also going to the gym, right?
00:04:08.380 So, this is a story I call The Golden Egg.
00:04:14.580 No, it's not about cooking.
00:04:16.220 It's about, well, I'll tell you.
00:04:18.300 So, The Golden Egg is my first success story in life.
00:04:22.500 And it happened when, I don't know my exact age, but I'm thinking maybe nine years old-ish, give or take a few years.
00:04:32.680 And we would have an annual event in my tiny town of Wyndham, New York called the Easter Egg Hunt.
00:04:39.560 And, you know, very much like other towns do it traditionally.
00:04:42.760 And the eggs would be colored and hidden in a farmer's field that had many, many ups and downs and places to hide things in the field.
00:04:53.060 And then the local kids would go there, and we would go to try to find the eggs.
00:04:57.960 But here's the fun part.
00:04:59.660 The eggs had a cash amount written on them.
00:05:04.680 So, the eggs that were the most plentiful, you know, might be, you know, I don't know, 10 cents or something, whatever it was.
00:05:13.020 But the most, I think the most important egg was the golden egg.
00:05:19.060 And there was only one of them.
00:05:20.520 And it was this big farmer's field, and it was filled with kids.
00:05:24.700 It was, you know, I don't know how many, maybe a hundred or more.
00:05:29.200 It was a small town, but probably a few hundred.
00:05:33.100 Yeah, well, it was Wyndham is the name of the town.
00:05:36.320 Have you heard of it?
00:05:38.080 Yeah, it's, well, yeah, it's not near anything.
00:05:41.960 It's in upstate New York.
00:05:44.060 So, do you want to hear more of this story, or am I boring you?
00:05:47.540 I will.
00:05:48.140 Okay, just hang in there.
00:05:49.160 All right.
00:05:49.760 So, I dreamed every year that I was eligible, because you could enter the Easter egg hunt from the age of, I don't know, probably as young as you could walk around and carry a little basket.
00:06:04.740 But then you would time out at a certain age.
00:06:07.600 Maybe it was nine.
00:06:10.620 I'm hoping my brother is watching this, and later he'll say, no, you idiot, you got those details wrong.
00:06:15.360 But, here was the deal.
00:06:20.180 Year after year, I would go and I would dream.
00:06:24.000 I mean, I would visualize winning the golden egg.
00:06:27.200 Now, when I say winning, I mean being the lucky one who found it.
00:06:30.480 Because there was no skill involved.
00:06:32.680 It was just a giant field, and you just had to get lucky.
00:06:36.440 And, you know, what were the odds that I would find the one and only golden egg?
00:06:41.760 And so, I'd go there, and I'd look hard, and pretty soon somebody else would find the golden egg.
00:06:46.780 And, year after year, I'd go there with my heart was set, and somebody else would find the golden egg.
00:06:55.520 And, finally, it was my final year.
00:06:57.800 It was the last year I'd be eligible.
00:06:59.640 And the hunt was on, and we were running out of time, and the golden egg had not been found.
00:07:07.900 And I thought to myself, could this be it?
00:07:10.740 Could this be the time that the universe conforms to my wishes?
00:07:15.080 Will this be the time that I, I know, maybe I'm being a little dramatic, okay?
00:07:22.440 But would this be the time that I would be the one, the lucky one, out of, I don't know, a hundred kids, maybe more,
00:07:29.960 to find the one golden egg?
00:07:32.200 My last chance.
00:07:35.360 And the time ran out.
00:07:38.140 The time was, it was out.
00:07:40.440 And that was it.
00:07:41.280 And nobody found the golden egg.
00:07:44.740 It was my last chance.
00:07:47.880 Dejected.
00:07:49.000 And then one of the organizers said, hold on, hold on.
00:07:52.700 Somebody has to find the golden egg.
00:07:54.740 So we're going to narrow down the zone and tell you a little bit more specifically where it might be in that general area.
00:08:03.140 And I thought, I'm still alive.
00:08:06.480 Still alive.
00:08:08.480 I can find the golden egg.
00:08:10.020 And so, the whistle sounded, and we kids just, you know, ran into that area and started pouring through all of the grass tufts and whatnot.
00:08:25.760 And there it was.
00:08:27.960 The golden egg.
00:08:29.240 And I found it in overtime of my final year.
00:08:35.460 And I got to tell you, there are lots of things I've wanted over my life.
00:08:40.580 You know, like anybody.
00:08:42.160 I want this.
00:08:43.120 I want that.
00:08:44.320 But there were few things I've ever wanted as much as finding that golden egg.
00:08:49.200 And to find it and to realize the thing that I had been visualizing for so long was life-changing.
00:09:00.420 It was actually life-changing.
00:09:02.540 Because even then, I was able to calculate the odds.
00:09:07.200 I mean, roughly speaking.
00:09:08.660 And I knew that something weird had happened.
00:09:14.020 And that somehow, I had beaten tremendous odds.
00:09:21.080 And I thought to myself, what if that's the way it always is?
00:09:26.680 Right?
00:09:27.980 Because I was a kid.
00:09:29.700 What if that's the way it always is?
00:09:32.740 Let me give you another story.
00:09:36.400 So you can get a sense of the things that influenced me.
00:09:40.900 One day, it was around the same age, maybe a little after that.
00:09:44.920 There was a contest on the back of a cereal box.
00:09:49.100 And the contest asked you to draw a picture of the, I think it was the old faithful geyser.
00:09:55.500 And send it in, and you could win something.
00:09:59.020 And the top prize was, I think, a color TV, which was a big deal back then.
00:10:03.540 But there were a bunch of second prizes, which were cameras.
00:10:06.740 And so I showed my mother and said, hey, I'm going to enter this contest.
00:10:10.060 I'm pretty sure I'm going to win.
00:10:11.780 And my mother said, you know, I'm glad that you're optimistic.
00:10:18.780 You know, it's a pretty good drawing.
00:10:20.700 But a lot of kids are going to be entering.
00:10:23.760 And the odds of you winning a contest on the back of a cereal, very low.
00:10:31.520 Very low.
00:10:32.880 More words to those effect.
00:10:34.880 And I said, yeah, I hear what you're saying.
00:10:38.060 But I feel like I'm going to win.
00:10:39.600 Not the top prize, but I think I'm going to win a camera.
00:10:43.400 So I sent in my drawing, and I want a camera.
00:10:47.100 Now, I don't know what the odds were, but I want a camera, and it wasn't a very good drawing.
00:10:55.760 Here's another weird thing that happened to me.
00:10:57.560 In college, my first day of, yeah, I think it was my first day of freshman year.
00:11:08.780 And there was another freshman who was actually an older guy who was going back to school.
00:11:14.300 I think he was in his early 20s.
00:11:15.980 And he was a big, hulking guy with gigantic arms.
00:11:19.820 I remember he had these huge, like, almost simian arms.
00:11:24.240 And one thing led to another, and somehow we're just making a conversation.
00:11:28.400 It turns out he played tennis, and I also played tennis.
00:11:31.960 And so, being the cocky 18-year-old that I was, and he being the cocky 20-something that he was,
00:11:41.220 we ended up trash-talking each other about how badly we would beat each other in tennis should we play.
00:11:49.040 Now, what I didn't know at the time is that he had actually played, I think, the number one position,
00:11:55.300 or at least he was on a major college team before that, because he'd been in college years before.
00:12:00.440 And so, he was actually, like, a college-level first-string tennis player.
00:12:07.760 I was a guy who played tennis.
00:12:11.760 So, I wasn't even really in his general category of tennis goodness.
00:12:19.480 But do you think that stopped me from trash-talking him that I would beat him in tennis?
00:12:24.280 No. No, it did not.
00:12:26.080 It did not stop me from trash-talking.
00:12:27.880 And for the life of me, I do not know what got into me, because I knew at the time that we weren't even close.
00:12:36.800 It would be sort of like, you know, challenging Tiger Woods to a golf game and thinking you had a shot.
00:12:44.100 But the trash-talk continued, and we finally played.
00:12:47.200 And I will summarize the match this way.
00:12:55.560 Sometimes I rise to the challenge.
00:12:59.020 Sometimes.
00:13:00.700 Sometimes I get lucky.
00:13:04.040 Sometimes.
00:13:05.720 Sometimes I'll hit a junk shot that maybe somebody isn't used to seeing,
00:13:10.160 because they're a much better player.
00:13:11.720 And it comes off my racket differently, because I wasn't that good a player.
00:13:17.160 And sometimes I'm unusually quick.
00:13:19.760 Not so much anymore, but, you know, when I was 18, I was deceptively fast.
00:13:24.840 And maybe I was way, way more mentally tough than my opponent.
00:13:35.900 And maybe, although I was not yet a trained hypnotist, maybe I got in his head.
00:13:44.980 And maybe he didn't play his best that day.
00:13:48.280 And maybe the way I knew that I'd had a good day, against all odds, and he had had a bad day,
00:13:58.140 was when he wrapped his tennis racket around the end pole and beat it into a pretzel.
00:14:08.740 That's how he expressed his unhappiness at losing a tennis match.
00:14:13.700 He was pretty sure he was going to win.
00:14:15.200 Now, I can't explain why I won.
00:14:19.380 I guess he was out of practice.
00:14:21.100 I got in his head a little bit.
00:14:23.260 One thing led to another.
00:14:25.720 Lost the momentum.
00:14:27.940 Bada bing.
00:14:30.440 All right.
00:14:31.000 How many of you tried talking to me when I was talking?
00:14:35.520 No, I'm not intoxicated.
00:14:37.240 Whoever's asking that.
00:14:38.440 But thanks for asking.
00:14:41.940 Now, let me tell you one of my greatest failures.
00:14:45.900 My most hubris is ugly.
00:14:51.740 We're going to block you for that.
00:14:55.280 So, a number of people have said to me recently, and of course, this was the setup to that.
00:15:06.160 They've said to me, Scott, I turn you off because you're too narcissistic.
00:15:11.960 To which I say, oh, apparently you are not aware of the full context.
00:15:17.220 The full context being that I often teach you that your ego should be a tool.
00:15:24.160 And it's not who you are.
00:15:27.800 Likewise, if I brag about something that went well, it's not who I am.
00:15:33.620 It's just the character I'm taking on to tell you the story.
00:15:36.920 If I do something that shows I failed miserably or something, which I've got some stories about that, if you want to hear them, it doesn't mean that I'm the person who failed.
00:15:48.140 So, I'm neither the person who succeeded, nor am I the person who failed.
00:15:54.280 And if you imagine that I'm telling you that I am, then that's a little bit on you because the context is missing for you.
00:16:04.680 So, you should always learn to dial up your ego when you're putting on a show, right?
00:16:12.420 So, if the audience is looking at you, crank up your ego.
00:16:17.320 That's how you get the right energy and the charisma.
00:16:20.080 That's why it's more interesting, et cetera.
00:16:22.120 But there are plenty of situations in which that's the very worst thing you could do.
00:16:26.100 Then you want to dial it down, right?
00:16:29.880 Would you like to hear a story that didn't go my way?
00:16:34.680 I wrote an entire book about that.
00:16:42.120 So, I'm literally a guy who wrote a book about all of my failures because there were so many of them.
00:16:50.520 You spelled his name wrongly.
00:16:53.220 Okay.
00:16:56.080 It's easier to give good advice, but not as easy to follow on your own.
00:17:01.500 Okay, I don't know what that means.
00:17:04.680 So, you want to hear a story of utter failure.
00:17:09.820 Okay.
00:17:11.040 I think I've got some examples of that.
00:17:15.260 Let me call this the first dance.
00:17:19.300 Stop me if you've heard this.
00:17:21.060 When I was probably 14, I had the first dance in my little high school, my little town.
00:17:30.160 And I wanted to ask the cutest girl in the class to a slow dance.
00:17:36.700 And I'd never done this before.
00:17:38.400 Now, if you can remember back to when you were 14, imagine the terror of having to walk across the gym floor to ask the prettiest girl in the class to dance when you're 14 in a slow dance.
00:17:55.160 It's pretty nerve-wracking, right?
00:17:57.780 So, you can imagine my state of mind, but I put myself into the moment.
00:18:05.040 I said, I'm going to do this.
00:18:07.380 And time stood still as I was walking across that great distance, which was just the width of a basketball thing, because she was with the mean girls.
00:18:17.180 So, there were three of them that sort of were the mean girls.
00:18:22.080 I don't think they called themselves that, but if any of them were watching this periscope, that's what I thought you were.
00:18:30.000 But, of course, the mean girls often are also the prettiest girls, the way it works.
00:18:36.760 So, imagine there are three of them.
00:18:39.160 The one that is the target of my affections is in the middle.
00:18:42.900 But, I've got to do whatever I'm going to do in front of an audience of the three mean girls.
00:18:50.580 So, you have to know that there was an audience to know how big the pressure was.
00:18:56.120 And so, I walked across the gym as time stood still.
00:18:59.960 It was like I was moving through water.
00:19:03.100 And I got there, and I said, I won't say her name, but I said, name, would you like to dance?
00:19:12.900 And she said, what?
00:19:18.420 Now, what is the worst thing she could have said, because it forced me to say it again,
00:19:25.320 but once I had the attention of all three mean girls.
00:19:28.280 So, now, the glaring attention of the three mean girls is at me, and I said, would you like to dance?
00:19:39.880 And she said, now?
00:19:43.440 And I said, yeah, now?
00:19:47.280 And she said, I'm too hot.
00:19:56.960 And when she said, I'm too hot, did I think I was done?
00:20:01.840 No.
00:20:02.760 No.
00:20:03.240 Because I'm spunky.
00:20:04.900 I'm the kind of guy who doesn't give up.
00:20:06.760 So, when she said, you know, I'm too hot, I didn't put my tail between my legs, I didn't turn around, I didn't give up.
00:20:17.680 I'm still alive, still alive.
00:20:21.580 And so, after she said, I'm too hot, I said, well, maybe you could take off your heavy down jacket.
00:20:28.540 And she looked at me, and she said, and I'm too tired.
00:20:40.680 And I turned around, and I walked all the way back across the tennis court, or that was actually a basketball court.
00:20:50.120 And time stood still again, because I knew they were probably laughing at me at that moment in time.
00:20:56.460 And I got to the other side, and I said, someday, as God is my witness, I will take this great tragic humiliation,
00:21:10.940 and I will turn it into, if nothing will stop me, I will take this bad energy,
00:21:17.420 and I will turn it into a little story on Periscope in 2020 during the coronavirus, is what I said to myself.
00:21:27.460 Because I don't lose.
00:21:30.080 I don't lose.
00:21:31.540 Sometimes the clock runs out before I've won.
00:21:35.760 Sure.
00:21:36.700 But is that my fault?
00:21:37.740 No, I don't own the clock.
00:21:39.760 But I never lose.
00:21:41.060 No matter how long it takes, I'm going to win.
00:21:47.520 And so, I just turned that terrible story into an entertaining little vignette.
00:21:53.760 Yes.
00:21:55.180 Yes, that really happened.
00:21:57.780 Would you like to hear the most embarrassing story that ever happened to me?
00:22:04.520 And if Christine is watching this, she will cringe.
00:22:11.180 But if you want to hear it, if you want to hear the most embarrassing thing that ever happened to me,
00:22:16.720 it wasn't that one.
00:22:19.060 Oh, there's a better one.
00:22:21.680 But only if you want to hear it.
00:22:23.320 So, I don't see anything in the comments.
00:22:26.680 But there's a little delay.
00:22:30.980 Well, I'm going to guess that you might want to hear this.
00:22:37.040 You know, I don't think I would tell this story,
00:22:39.480 except that we're trapped in the coronavirus.
00:22:42.160 It feels like all the rules don't apply.
00:22:46.540 So, this is a story I never would have told.
00:22:50.040 And so, oh, can I tell this story?
00:22:55.660 I'm at mid-teens, and I'm in a movie theater in Wyndham, New York.
00:23:03.400 And I'm next to a girl, and some handsy things happened.
00:23:13.080 So, I'll just keep it that.
00:23:15.600 I'm a teenager.
00:23:17.760 I'm in a movie theater.
00:23:19.020 The movie was Diamonds Are Forever.
00:23:22.880 And it was, I think, the first movie I saw that there was a little nudity.
00:23:30.200 And remember, this is before the Internet.
00:23:32.860 So, I'd never really seen a movie where a live human being showed a little bit of something.
00:23:39.920 I'd just never seen it.
00:23:40.940 At the same time, I wasn't the only one getting a little handsy.
00:23:48.140 And although everybody was fully garbed, I realized, as there was a especially, let's say, provocative point in the movie,
00:24:02.100 that, by the worst coincidence, lined up at about the same time as some handsy activity,
00:24:12.200 I realized that I was going to have an event, shall we say.
00:24:19.580 Send the kids to bed, will you?
00:24:21.420 Send the kids to bed.
00:24:23.200 All right.
00:24:23.420 So, I'm like a teenager, and I realized that I might need to go to the men's room because something's going to happen, and I can't hold back.
00:24:33.840 And I think only the guys can relate to this.
00:24:41.380 There's something that you could call, let's say, the countdown.
00:24:46.060 The countdown is when you start hearing the countdown, and you say to yourself,
00:24:51.400 you know, there's nothing I can do to stop the countdown from getting to zero.
00:24:57.540 We're past the point of the fail safe.
00:25:00.040 Something's going to happen, and I'm fully clothed.
00:25:06.240 Everybody's fully clothed in this story.
00:25:09.660 But I say to myself, my best chance is if I can get to the men's room before the countdown reaches zero,
00:25:17.480 I can avoid the worst embarrassment of it.
00:25:20.420 And so, I quickly got up and started to walk up the aisle to see if I could get there before the countdown ended.
00:25:31.700 And here's what I didn't count on.
00:25:35.060 It turns out the walking action does not decrease the amount of your excitement if you're in a certain condition.
00:25:46.160 It actually adds, shall we say, a degree of friction you weren't counting on.
00:25:52.600 So that when I calculated how long it would take to walk up the theater,
00:25:58.660 and oh, there's a detail I forgot to mention.
00:26:01.780 In my small town, I would know personally everyone in the theater.
00:26:07.300 Oh, yeah, yeah.
00:26:08.480 I would personally know everyone in the entire theater because it was a small town.
00:26:13.920 And I was sitting up front, and I stand up, and I say to myself,
00:26:19.120 I think I can make it to the back in the restrooms.
00:26:23.940 And I can hear the countdown in my head.
00:26:26.420 It's like eight, seven, six.
00:26:30.900 And I won't pantomime the whole thing.
00:26:35.300 But in the middle of a crowded theater,
00:26:39.520 the event happened.
00:26:42.060 And while I was trying to walk up the rest of the aisle
00:26:47.540 in front of everybody I knew in the town.
00:26:56.340 True story.
00:26:59.060 Most embarrassing story.
00:27:01.020 I don't think I should have told that.
00:27:02.400 I'll probably delete this right after we're done.
00:27:05.340 Yeah, there was a Bond girl in the movie, and it didn't help at all.
00:27:09.520 All right, I'm going to take some questions and see if anybody has any.
00:27:13.840 That note, that should scare everybody away.
00:27:20.100 All right, David, do you have a question?
00:27:25.460 David, do you have a question?
00:27:26.580 Nice to talk to you, Scott.
00:27:32.800 Thanks.
00:27:33.480 I've been trying to get in on these questions for a long time,
00:27:37.040 so this is really exciting.
00:27:38.380 Don't blow it.
00:27:39.140 This is your chance.
00:27:40.400 It is.
00:27:41.400 All right, make it good.
00:27:43.640 So you've talked a lot about,
00:27:45.940 well, just recently you were talking about the narrative
00:27:48.220 where you decided to tell yourself the story
00:27:52.520 that you just always win.
00:27:54.720 Correct.
00:27:55.360 Right?
00:27:57.700 So you could really, I guess, program yourself
00:28:00.620 with any story, right?
00:28:05.700 So, like, I grew up in a Christian household,
00:28:09.100 and then I stopped going to church
00:28:11.600 and only recently started going again
00:28:14.000 because I thought, regardless of whether or not it's true,
00:28:18.220 there's a, I thought it was just a powerful belief system
00:28:23.220 for, like, the human mind, you know, operating system.
00:28:27.900 And, oh, what were you going to say?
00:28:31.480 Oh, nothing.
00:28:32.100 Did you have a question?
00:28:34.940 I'm just wondering if you could, I guess,
00:28:38.900 can you do that, I guess, with any belief system?
00:28:43.420 Just, can you?
00:28:45.040 Yeah, I think so.
00:28:46.100 So my experience is that you can change filters.
00:28:50.600 You know, I like using the word filter
00:28:52.480 because that tells you that you can't really understand
00:28:55.640 the true nature of the world,
00:28:56.900 but you can put different filters on it
00:28:59.280 for different purposes.
00:29:00.880 So, yeah, people change religions.
00:29:03.100 People change belief systems.
00:29:04.560 I've changed my belief system a bunch of times.
00:29:07.500 So, yeah, you can definitely do that.
00:29:09.640 So, thank you.
00:29:11.560 Yeah.
00:29:11.900 I, like, I can see where simulation theory, you know,
00:29:17.420 be helpful there.
00:29:19.160 It's going to work out for you.
00:29:20.780 It looks like the simulation.
00:29:22.380 Yeah, it's, you know, the simulation theory
00:29:25.280 doesn't have to be true or false.
00:29:27.360 It just has to be a filter that's useful or not useful.
00:29:30.880 And one of the tricks that I use all the time
00:29:33.700 is to imagine that I'm not my body,
00:29:37.600 but rather I'm the little controller inside my head
00:29:40.080 and I'm inside a robot body.
00:29:41.800 It's amazing how often that works.
00:29:44.560 I use this today, actually.
00:29:46.120 It's a little technique to get you going
00:29:47.980 when you're just feeling lazy.
00:29:49.460 And you're like, okay, if I were a robot,
00:29:51.860 could I lift my arm?
00:29:53.160 Oh, yeah, look at that.
00:29:54.600 I could do that.
00:29:55.480 And then the next thing you know,
00:29:56.280 you're up and moving.
00:29:57.860 It's my little trick.
00:29:58.780 All right.
00:29:59.000 Thank you for the question.
00:30:00.760 Thank you.
00:30:03.980 Let's see.
00:30:06.380 If you don't hit this just right,
00:30:09.660 that tiny little X doesn't work.
00:30:14.160 All right.
00:30:14.680 How about Charlie?
00:30:19.520 Charlie?
00:30:21.180 Charlie, do you have a question?
00:30:24.740 I'm good.
00:30:25.660 How are you?
00:30:29.000 Well, the technique about I'm not my body
00:30:32.340 is something I do all the time.
00:30:34.180 And I'm so happy that you said that
00:30:36.520 because you know the pinky trick that you talk about?
00:30:41.200 Yes.
00:30:42.420 I feel like it's part of that.
00:30:44.640 It's along the same lines
00:30:46.080 in where your mind can control a very small piece of you.
00:30:49.880 And then eventually you realize that you're not,
00:30:53.480 your body is just the means of being,
00:30:55.720 of existing in this world.
00:30:58.800 You may not necessarily be that.
00:31:02.560 Your existence in this dimension and in this world is,
00:31:07.400 part of it has to be your physical self,
00:31:09.820 but you can control yourself from the mind
00:31:13.920 and you're not necessarily always your body.
00:31:16.440 Yeah, it's a fun mental exercise
00:31:19.780 because if you imagine that you were playing a video game
00:31:22.260 and let's say the video game was a little character
00:31:25.280 that the one that you're operating
00:31:27.260 to fight somebody or whatever,
00:31:28.860 if the character in that game had a problem in his world,
00:31:33.560 it wouldn't bother you
00:31:34.620 even though you're the one operating the little character.
00:31:38.000 And so it's the same trick where you say,
00:31:39.560 well, what if I'm the character in the video game,
00:31:41.660 or your body is the character.
00:31:45.540 So would it bother the little controller inside your head?
00:31:50.420 Would that little guy be bothered
00:31:51.880 if there was something bothering your external body
00:31:54.660 short of actual physical pain?
00:31:57.440 Let's say your physical body got embarrassed about something.
00:32:01.220 Would it bother the little you on the inside
00:32:03.120 that's just operating your body like a robot?
00:32:05.340 No, you're not even the same person.
00:32:07.340 There's just something that happened in the external world,
00:32:09.340 but it didn't affect you.
00:32:10.840 You're the little mind inside the robot body.
00:32:15.520 It's a beautiful thing.
00:32:17.140 And I wanted to ask you one more thing.
00:32:21.000 Do you think that there's the potential,
00:32:23.900 do you think that it's possible
00:32:26.260 to have a psychological placebo?
00:32:30.260 And the reason I ask it is because
00:32:32.220 could it be that even if the,
00:32:35.300 like what they call the Trump pills
00:32:37.420 or whatever you want to call those
00:32:39.280 hopeful medications or treatment,
00:32:43.880 do you think that it's possible
00:32:45.360 that there could be a psychological placebo
00:32:48.120 that he may have been really helping people out
00:32:51.480 just by having hope,
00:32:52.800 even if it doesn't work?
00:32:54.860 Well, I do think that it had a purpose.
00:32:58.980 Yes, very much.
00:32:59.980 So it allowed people like me,
00:33:02.640 it helped me think that there was some way
00:33:04.680 to get past it.
00:33:06.220 Now, as other options developed,
00:33:08.740 it was obvious that you didn't need
00:33:10.100 that specific way to get by it.
00:33:11.980 There are probably several different paths
00:33:13.780 from everything from testing the blood serum
00:33:16.440 to vaccinations, whatever.
00:33:18.820 But when we didn't have any idea
00:33:20.740 what to do about it,
00:33:22.880 it was nice that he had a little hope to hold out.
00:33:26.460 Now, it's been increasingly clear
00:33:30.340 for the last, I don't know, few weeks
00:33:32.800 that we would have heard good news.
00:33:35.340 If it were going to be good news,
00:33:37.420 I think we would have heard.
00:33:38.860 So I'm not expecting good news from these tests.
00:33:41.840 But part of the problem is that they're fake tests
00:33:44.700 because they pretend to compare
00:33:48.120 across different tests.
00:33:50.640 But the tests that I think are working
00:33:52.420 are the ones where they pair the hydroxychloroquine
00:33:56.640 with zinc and azithromycin,
00:33:59.520 whereas other tests don't pair it with zinc.
00:34:02.280 And since that is the presumed way that it works,
00:34:06.440 you know, with the zinc,
00:34:08.380 I'm not sure that the new tests are telling you
00:34:10.340 what you think they're saying.
00:34:12.700 So I don't trust any of them.
00:34:15.180 But so I'd say there's maybe a 40% chance
00:34:18.780 the hydroxychloroquine works at best.
00:34:20.960 It's a 40% chance.
00:34:23.120 I think that the hopefulness might have worked, though.
00:34:26.380 Like, I myself was in the same,
00:34:28.640 I live in New York, and I was on the same page.
00:34:31.280 I was like, I hear so many deaths happening,
00:34:33.820 and you just want to look for something positive.
00:34:36.640 And I feel like there was something good,
00:34:41.160 whether works or not, there was some hope.
00:34:43.480 And I think that, I don't know.
00:34:47.080 All right.
00:34:48.380 So thanks for the call.
00:34:49.740 To you, too.
00:34:51.240 Thank you.
00:34:51.820 All right.
00:34:53.420 I just saw somebody in the comments
00:34:55.540 ask me if I knew that there's a hotel
00:34:57.840 in my hometown of Wyndham
00:34:59.700 called Cuomo's Cave.
00:35:02.320 And I think I've actually stayed at it
00:35:04.680 when I visited my parents.
00:35:06.360 I think I actually stayed at Cuomo's Cave.
00:35:08.660 Pretty sure I did.
00:35:11.600 All right.
00:35:12.720 Let's see who else has a question for me.
00:35:16.180 Let's go with Tom.
00:35:23.560 Tom?
00:35:24.440 Tom, do you have a question for me?
00:35:28.240 Tom, do you have a question for me?
00:35:30.860 I can see it trying to load and then reload.
00:35:33.500 Can you hear me, Tom?
00:35:34.500 Oh, yeah, Scott.
00:35:35.340 Can you hear me?
00:35:36.380 Yes.
00:35:36.800 Do you have a question for me?
00:35:38.720 Well, first of all, I just want to say thank you
00:35:40.900 for devoting so much time to your audience
00:35:43.320 for these periscopes.
00:35:44.540 They're terrific.
00:35:45.880 And I got to share a little bit about that empty slate
00:35:49.060 with one of my kids who's going through college.
00:35:52.760 And I told him your story about how you were leaving college
00:35:56.060 and your slate was empty and it was an opportunity to move on.
00:35:58.700 And I think a lot of us are going to find a time now
00:36:01.680 where our slate's going to be a little bit more empty
00:36:04.220 or we're going to get to reevaluate things.
00:36:08.860 Oh, we lost the connection.
00:36:10.320 It's too bad because I like where that was going.
00:36:13.840 Yeah, you know, I think the number of innovations
00:36:17.680 and inventions are just going to be nuts.
00:36:22.380 So there's definitely some good stuff coming,
00:36:24.680 even with all the bad.
00:36:25.720 How about Perry is a commie.
00:36:31.640 That's an interesting name.
00:36:35.600 Perry?
00:36:36.740 Perry, are you there?
00:36:40.680 I can hear you.
00:36:41.720 Do you have a question for me?
00:36:43.480 Kind of.
00:36:44.320 I wanted to comment on something that I used of yours
00:36:47.700 just in the last 24 hours
00:36:49.700 and to see if maybe you have a comment
00:36:53.540 or something that can help me prevent getting to the point that I was at.
00:36:57.280 Okay.
00:36:58.020 I'm a nurse.
00:36:58.760 I'm a public health nurse.
00:37:00.280 I'm fine at nursing,
00:37:02.780 but I get so much anxiety
00:37:04.460 and whatnot about the things that I'm not good at, right?
00:37:08.600 So I have built up a ton of,
00:37:11.620 I mean, I didn't sleep at all last night
00:37:13.420 because I was worried about a meeting that I had to run
00:37:15.500 in front of doctors that are above me
00:37:17.700 and I wasn't prepared
00:37:19.720 and I just kept thinking,
00:37:21.360 oh my God,
00:37:21.800 if I don't find this certain thing at my desk tomorrow morning,
00:37:24.180 I'm not going to be able to put this meeting on.
00:37:27.360 And I, like I said,
00:37:28.760 I didn't sleep all night
00:37:29.560 and then finally on the way to work,
00:37:31.560 I tuned you in
00:37:33.400 and I really seriously considered
00:37:35.380 I am,
00:37:37.240 I have to put myself in my brain.
00:37:39.140 I am the master of organizing
00:37:40.660 or working out
00:37:42.440 how this is going to happen today,
00:37:44.340 this morning.
00:37:46.040 And I delayed a meeting
00:37:48.660 so that I could work on it.
00:37:50.140 I got to the office,
00:37:52.880 found,
00:37:53.460 within four minutes,
00:37:55.180 found what I needed to do.
00:37:56.720 I was like on auto drive
00:37:58.780 when in the last few days
00:38:00.480 has probably been the hardest few 48 hours
00:38:03.440 of my family's life
00:38:04.440 through this COVID thing.
00:38:05.520 It's been really tough with the kid
00:38:07.480 and I had tears
00:38:08.980 and everything here at the house.
00:38:11.020 And it's like once I put my mind
00:38:14.580 into that mindset that you explained
00:38:19.800 where I am visualizing me
00:38:22.100 just being a master of my body
00:38:25.040 to just go through the motions,
00:38:27.660 I got so much shit done
00:38:29.880 and in only one hour,
00:38:32.240 I got about three hours of work done.
00:38:34.540 It looked awesome.
00:38:35.920 The meeting went off well.
00:38:37.220 And then after that,
00:38:39.680 one thing after another,
00:38:41.720 just constant demands of me.
00:38:43.400 I lived up to by supervisors
00:38:45.860 and the hub of all the COVID stuff
00:38:49.700 that they call and say
00:38:50.720 and they were like,
00:38:51.920 oh my gosh,
00:38:52.780 you are just like Gumby.
00:38:54.060 You could be pulled anywhere
00:38:55.080 and you're being useful
00:38:56.160 when I felt worthless.
00:38:57.860 24 hours ago,
00:38:59.220 I was in tears.
00:39:00.700 I was in tears
00:39:01.720 and didn't sleep all night.
00:39:04.220 So worried that they're going
00:39:05.300 to see my failures,
00:39:06.700 my insecurities
00:39:07.860 that I know I'm not good at.
00:39:09.820 Yeah, isn't that an amazing little trick?
00:39:12.720 It just takes you right out of
00:39:15.340 the fake world of anxiety
00:39:19.040 and you just imagine
00:39:20.640 you're operating the robot
00:39:21.820 and suddenly you're just getting stuff done.
00:39:24.880 But I know that before.
00:39:26.320 I don't know why I keep falling into it
00:39:28.020 and I'm so scared
00:39:28.800 they're going to find out
00:39:29.860 that I'm failing in this area
00:39:31.680 in the computer
00:39:32.420 or, you know,
00:39:34.040 it's...
00:39:35.260 You know,
00:39:36.460 one of the most important things
00:39:38.700 I ever learned
00:39:39.540 because when I first
00:39:41.320 got into the workforce,
00:39:42.920 I was surrounded by people
00:39:44.440 who seemed to have
00:39:45.740 all these skills
00:39:46.660 that I had not yet developed
00:39:48.480 and so I felt
00:39:49.580 just permanently ignorant
00:39:51.660 and inferior
00:39:52.500 and I didn't know
00:39:53.240 what all the buzzwords meant
00:39:54.460 and stuff.
00:39:55.180 But it doesn't take long
00:39:56.300 to figure out
00:39:56.900 that most people are bluffing
00:39:58.700 and that everybody's
00:40:00.820 just sort of faking it.
00:40:02.680 And once you learn
00:40:03.380 that everybody's faking it,
00:40:04.740 at least a little bit,
00:40:06.040 I mean,
00:40:06.300 at least in terms of
00:40:07.040 how they present themselves,
00:40:08.820 that, you know,
00:40:09.340 nobody is presenting
00:40:10.300 a genuine view
00:40:12.220 of their capability.
00:40:13.900 Once you realize that
00:40:14.840 and you also realize
00:40:15.800 that the bar
00:40:18.000 for good performance
00:40:19.700 is not as high
00:40:20.660 as maybe you think it is,
00:40:22.760 it's almost hard to fail
00:40:24.240 in today's workplace.
00:40:26.380 As long as you put the work in
00:40:27.800 and you have some amount
00:40:30.320 of competence
00:40:30.840 and you do a good try,
00:40:32.380 it's hard to fail,
00:40:34.020 you know?
00:40:35.200 The longer that you
00:40:36.800 try things
00:40:38.440 and they work out fine,
00:40:40.400 the more you can believe that.
00:40:42.260 Because now you've had
00:40:43.000 the experience of,
00:40:44.420 the more times you have
00:40:45.280 the experience of
00:40:46.140 you're sure it's not
00:40:47.160 going to work out
00:40:47.940 and then an hour later
00:40:49.940 you're like,
00:40:50.360 oh, that went fine.
00:40:52.000 That went fine.
00:40:53.580 But at the same time,
00:40:55.560 I'm going to embarrass myself
00:40:59.060 to the extreme here.
00:41:02.140 In front of my supervisor,
00:41:03.960 if I am not prepared,
00:41:06.920 I used also your lesson
00:41:09.940 about putting yourself
00:41:11.320 in embarrassing situations
00:41:12.580 and thought,
00:41:14.120 then what?
00:41:15.360 What's the worst
00:41:16.160 that can happen?
00:41:17.100 And I played it out.
00:41:18.560 And it totally
00:41:19.240 calmed me down.
00:41:20.100 Yeah,
00:41:20.900 the worst
00:41:22.020 that could happen
00:41:22.660 is you command ahead.
00:41:24.200 That's actually
00:41:24.860 the worst
00:41:25.280 that could happen.
00:41:26.220 Because in the real world,
00:41:28.620 you know,
00:41:28.980 nobody says,
00:41:30.060 you're fired
00:41:30.620 because that PowerPoint
00:41:31.980 slide was missing
00:41:33.220 a bullet point.
00:41:34.400 It just doesn't happen
00:41:35.640 in the real world.
00:41:36.820 In fact,
00:41:37.980 it's the rarest
00:41:38.940 thing in the world
00:41:39.680 that anybody does
00:41:40.840 any kind of a presentation
00:41:42.120 and there's anything
00:41:43.720 that happens
00:41:44.260 other than compliments,
00:41:45.920 even if it's not good.
00:41:47.160 I mean,
00:41:47.460 people are just kind.
00:41:48.480 And so they say,
00:41:48.940 oh,
00:41:49.060 that's great.
00:41:49.500 Yeah,
00:41:49.640 thank you.
00:41:50.640 So there's not much to lose
00:41:52.420 and you learn that eventually.
00:41:55.320 Well,
00:41:55.740 thank you.
00:41:56.900 All right.
00:41:57.460 Well,
00:41:57.820 congratulations too.
00:41:59.340 Sounds like you're
00:42:00.180 on the way to
00:42:00.760 like a big level up.
00:42:04.160 It's like you won this level
00:42:05.420 in the video game
00:42:06.720 and you get to advance
00:42:07.560 to the next level.
00:42:09.020 So you might have
00:42:09.980 a different challenge coming,
00:42:11.840 but it sounds like
00:42:12.440 you've got this one.
00:42:13.580 So time to advance
00:42:14.560 to the next level.
00:42:16.100 And thanks for the call.
00:42:17.000 Thank you so much.
00:42:17.880 Bye.
00:42:18.480 Now,
00:42:22.200 isn't that
00:42:22.840 good to hear?
00:42:25.400 Let's see
00:42:26.100 what Mike
00:42:26.880 has to say.
00:42:32.380 Mike,
00:42:33.260 Mike,
00:42:34.700 hey,
00:42:35.280 do you have a question
00:42:35.880 for me,
00:42:36.320 Mike?
00:42:38.300 Yes,
00:42:38.800 I can.
00:42:39.420 Go ahead.
00:42:40.300 So I got a question
00:42:41.300 about the simulation.
00:42:42.880 Okay.
00:42:43.360 So the idea is,
00:42:47.560 I guess,
00:42:48.280 so step one is,
00:42:50.600 I guess we have
00:42:51.440 the neurons in our brains,
00:42:53.980 right?
00:42:54.180 They work a certain way.
00:42:55.040 So we're sort of
00:42:55.620 deterministic machines,
00:42:56.860 right?
00:42:58.520 Yes.
00:42:59.500 Unless we're simulations.
00:43:02.560 Okay.
00:43:02.760 Right.
00:43:03.200 But like,
00:43:03.980 like in theory,
00:43:04.820 like if you were a scientist
00:43:06.060 within the simulation,
00:43:07.140 that's what you would find,
00:43:08.120 right?
00:43:08.980 Yes.
00:43:09.540 Okay.
00:43:09.940 Okay.
00:43:10.820 So,
00:43:11.580 so then the simulation idea
00:43:15.400 is like you would model
00:43:16.980 something like that.
00:43:18.080 like you would,
00:43:19.300 you would have like a computer
00:43:20.260 model of these neurons.
00:43:21.600 They would be represented
00:43:22.400 in code and then you
00:43:23.320 would execute that.
00:43:24.120 And that deterministic
00:43:25.140 information processing
00:43:26.200 is what would produce
00:43:27.540 our,
00:43:28.320 I guess you could say
00:43:28.920 consciousness.
00:43:29.380 Is that?
00:43:32.280 Well,
00:43:32.740 it depends what you call
00:43:33.600 consciousness.
00:43:35.120 And that's kind of
00:43:35.860 what I'm at.
00:43:37.140 I mean,
00:43:37.860 I can give you my opinion
00:43:39.060 of what consciousness is.
00:43:40.900 If you'd like.
00:43:42.140 Are you sure?
00:43:42.860 All right.
00:43:43.660 So here's,
00:43:44.460 here's my definition.
00:43:45.560 It's sort of my own
00:43:46.640 working definition.
00:43:47.620 I think consciousness
00:43:48.980 is the process
00:43:51.160 of predicting
00:43:52.120 what's going to happen
00:43:53.200 in the very next moment
00:43:55.200 and then comparing it
00:43:56.960 to what actually happens.
00:43:58.900 So if what you think
00:44:00.840 is going to happen,
00:44:01.700 happens,
00:44:02.840 such as if I hold this pen
00:44:04.620 and drop it into my hand,
00:44:06.340 what I think is going to happen
00:44:07.580 is,
00:44:07.940 oh,
00:44:08.280 exactly that.
00:44:09.800 And when,
00:44:10.300 and when things happen
00:44:11.440 exactly as you expect,
00:44:14.360 they be,
00:44:14.980 they start to fade
00:44:16.120 from your conscious mind
00:44:17.420 because they don't matter.
00:44:18.960 Such as,
00:44:19.740 if you walk outside,
00:44:21.380 you don't expect
00:44:22.840 the trees to attack you
00:44:24.320 so you can just take them
00:44:25.660 out of your consciousness.
00:44:26.860 Right.
00:44:27.500 It's like the thing,
00:44:28.420 the things which,
00:44:29.460 just let me finish this point,
00:44:30.640 the things that become most,
00:44:34.160 cause the most friction
00:44:35.500 in your consciousness,
00:44:36.960 if you could call that,
00:44:37.800 is when things don't work
00:44:38.860 the way you wanted them to
00:44:39.940 and you're trying to figure out
00:44:40.960 why and how to adjust.
00:44:42.040 So I think it's just
00:44:43.180 that feedback system
00:44:44.320 of trying things
00:44:46.600 and comparing them
00:44:47.400 to what you thought
00:44:48.380 would happen
00:44:48.940 in the moment
00:44:50.120 and that's,
00:44:51.500 that's it,
00:44:52.300 that's consciousness.
00:44:53.400 Okay.
00:44:54.420 Yeah.
00:44:55.220 And then you can imagine,
00:44:56.260 for example,
00:44:57.000 let me just,
00:44:57.580 I'll let you finish,
00:44:58.460 let me finish this.
00:45:00.140 We,
00:45:00.660 we observe that
00:45:01.900 animals seem to have
00:45:03.580 different levels
00:45:04.260 of consciousness
00:45:04.960 and I think
00:45:06.000 if you imagine
00:45:06.820 an animal can't
00:45:08.040 predict its own future
00:45:09.380 very far,
00:45:10.320 like a cat
00:45:11.500 can basically,
00:45:12.360 you know,
00:45:12.760 see what's in front of it,
00:45:13.920 a dog can maybe
00:45:15.160 expect you to come home
00:45:16.320 but they can't really
00:45:17.240 predict the future.
00:45:18.500 So I think that
00:45:19.240 the better you can predict
00:45:20.840 and visualize the future,
00:45:23.180 the more you have
00:45:24.000 the experience
00:45:24.580 of consciousness.
00:45:25.900 So it's only our ability
00:45:26.980 to predict
00:45:27.620 that gives us consciousness.
00:45:29.280 Go ahead.
00:45:29.480 What was your follow-up question?
00:45:30.920 Got it.
00:45:31.480 Okay.
00:45:32.160 Now I have like a couple things
00:45:33.380 but I don't want to waste
00:45:34.360 everyone's time.
00:45:35.220 I guess I would say then
00:45:36.380 do you think
00:45:37.260 a computer program then
00:45:40.320 that makes a prediction
00:45:42.060 and then evaluates it,
00:45:43.280 does that feel something then?
00:45:45.160 Like I'm sort of
00:45:45.800 thinking in this
00:45:46.740 from like the,
00:45:47.380 I guess you could say
00:45:47.900 phenomenological standpoint,
00:45:49.840 like the mind-body problem.
00:45:53.000 So if,
00:45:54.040 if a computer
00:45:54.820 software thinks it's real
00:45:57.540 and thinks it felt something,
00:45:59.580 did it feel something?
00:46:00.860 Well,
00:46:01.380 ask yourself,
00:46:02.080 if you think you're happy,
00:46:03.480 are you happy?
00:46:05.080 So basically,
00:46:05.840 if it's your internal
00:46:07.120 description of what happened,
00:46:10.020 that's probably good enough.
00:46:11.320 So I think a piece of software
00:46:12.940 can internally describe itself
00:46:15.460 as having certain qualities
00:46:16.920 and that's it.
00:46:18.780 All right.
00:46:19.180 I appreciate it.
00:46:20.120 Thanks, Scott.
00:46:20.960 All right.
00:46:21.460 Thanks for the call.
00:46:25.100 All right.
00:46:25.460 Let's take
00:46:25.920 another one.
00:46:27.720 Let's take
00:46:28.720 Egg Master Flex.
00:46:32.760 No,
00:46:32.880 I'm not going to take you
00:46:33.720 because your name is weird.
00:46:35.440 Egg Master Flex.
00:46:37.280 How about Nicholas?
00:46:41.820 Nicholas,
00:46:42.640 are you there?
00:46:44.120 Nicholas?
00:46:45.740 Nicholas?
00:46:46.660 Hey,
00:46:47.000 do you have a question for me?
00:46:47.940 Go on Sam Harris's podcast again?
00:46:58.660 Well,
00:46:59.160 of course,
00:46:59.520 that's not up to the guests.
00:47:02.220 That's up to the hosts.
00:47:03.420 That's up to the hosts.
00:47:04.220 Yeah,
00:47:05.400 no,
00:47:05.780 I'm generally,
00:47:09.700 you okay?
00:47:11.480 Yeah,
00:47:11.880 it froze for a second there.
00:47:13.180 Okay.
00:47:14.040 I think we're good now.
00:47:15.680 Yeah,
00:47:16.000 I mean,
00:47:16.620 I would go on any podcast
00:47:18.520 that was,
00:47:19.860 you know,
00:47:21.300 big enough
00:47:22.160 that it had a little bit
00:47:22.960 of an audience
00:47:23.500 and wanted to talk to me.
00:47:25.100 So,
00:47:25.440 of course,
00:47:25.780 I would go.
00:47:26.360 But it's never up to the guests.
00:47:29.640 And I think,
00:47:30.480 to be fair,
00:47:31.700 there are certain kind of guests
00:47:33.020 that maybe wouldn't seem like
00:47:34.660 repeat guests.
00:47:35.860 I might fall into that category.
00:47:37.920 But,
00:47:38.260 yeah,
00:47:39.480 I mean,
00:47:39.720 I would do it if he asked.
00:47:42.000 And I'd also love to see you
00:47:43.480 on the portal,
00:47:45.220 Eric Weinstein's one.
00:47:47.240 Yeah,
00:47:47.640 that would be interesting.
00:47:51.420 I'm not sure I can keep up
00:47:52.980 with Eric,
00:47:53.640 though.
00:47:54.720 He's operating at a different level.
00:47:56.580 So,
00:47:56.840 half the time,
00:47:57.780 I can't keep up.
00:47:59.560 But,
00:48:00.180 all right,
00:48:01.840 thanks for the call.
00:48:03.020 Sounds like his computer
00:48:07.700 was freezing up.
00:48:09.260 He sounded frustrated.
00:48:11.560 How about Julio?
00:48:16.660 Julio?
00:48:17.420 Julio?
00:48:18.440 Come at me,
00:48:19.260 Julio.
00:48:20.280 Julio,
00:48:20.740 are you there?
00:48:24.060 I can.
00:48:25.040 I can.
00:48:25.500 What's your question?
00:48:26.720 All right.
00:48:27.180 Greetings from a fan
00:48:28.340 from Brazil.
00:48:29.160 Julio.
00:48:30.720 Many of the books
00:48:32.020 that you've written
00:48:32.780 have changed my life
00:48:34.120 in some ways.
00:48:34.800 Thank you for that.
00:48:36.180 So,
00:48:36.620 you have taught me
00:48:39.620 with Win Bigly
00:48:40.860 to fairly well
00:48:42.720 predict the future
00:48:43.920 in Brazilian politics
00:48:45.620 so far.
00:48:46.840 Really?
00:48:47.400 If I were to believe this,
00:48:50.320 what would you suggest
00:48:51.860 that I do
00:48:52.460 to,
00:48:52.780 you know,
00:48:53.820 start leveraging
00:48:55.240 that somehow?
00:48:57.380 Well,
00:48:57.980 nobody can really
00:48:58.840 predict the future.
00:49:00.900 I've had some
00:49:01.940 remarkable
00:49:02.720 predictions,
00:49:04.260 but I also
00:49:04.900 don't have any reason
00:49:05.760 to believe that,
00:49:06.720 you know,
00:49:07.080 the next five years
00:49:08.180 I would have
00:49:08.640 more remarkable
00:49:09.480 predictions.
00:49:10.600 So,
00:49:10.760 it's one thing
00:49:11.240 to be right
00:49:11.900 and it's a completely
00:49:13.320 other,
00:49:14.060 different thing
00:49:14.600 to say you can
00:49:15.700 reproduce it.
00:49:16.780 So,
00:49:17.200 if you ask me,
00:49:18.220 how can you make money
00:49:19.280 with your new
00:49:20.180 prediction ability,
00:49:21.360 I would say,
00:49:22.380 that's what people
00:49:23.340 say right before
00:49:24.220 they lose a lot
00:49:25.000 of money.
00:49:26.680 So,
00:49:27.600 believing that
00:49:28.640 you can predict
00:49:29.240 the future
00:49:29.740 is the best way
00:49:31.020 to lose money.
00:49:32.320 But,
00:49:33.040 if you wanted
00:49:33.660 to make sure
00:49:34.160 you didn't,
00:49:34.760 you'd diversify
00:49:35.680 and have a
00:49:36.360 diversified portfolio,
00:49:38.000 et cetera.
00:49:38.440 Now,
00:49:38.720 that said,
00:49:39.140 we're all human
00:49:40.780 and I often
00:49:41.980 make small bets
00:49:43.760 based on the fact
00:49:45.560 I think I can
00:49:46.280 predict.
00:49:47.000 So,
00:49:47.300 my best advice
00:49:48.140 is to make
00:49:49.100 small bets
00:49:50.040 and convince
00:49:51.040 yourself you're
00:49:51.700 really good at
00:49:52.200 this and probably
00:49:53.380 never make a big
00:49:54.340 bet unless you
00:49:55.260 can really afford
00:49:55.940 to lose it.
00:49:56.800 So,
00:49:57.020 I wouldn't bet
00:49:57.440 anything you
00:49:57.960 couldn't afford
00:49:58.400 to lose and I
00:49:59.780 would experiment
00:50:00.420 and see how
00:50:01.460 well you do.
00:50:02.620 Now,
00:50:02.820 one of the ways
00:50:03.680 that I'm doing
00:50:04.220 this is I signed
00:50:05.540 up for Predict It,
00:50:06.860 you know,
00:50:07.160 the online betting
00:50:08.200 service
00:50:09.220 so that I
00:50:10.200 can actually
00:50:10.580 have a record
00:50:11.280 because it
00:50:12.160 keeps a running
00:50:12.960 history of how
00:50:13.820 good you are
00:50:14.400 at predicting.
00:50:15.740 So,
00:50:16.740 you know,
00:50:17.260 do I have
00:50:18.580 false memory?
00:50:19.760 Do I have,
00:50:20.780 do I remember
00:50:21.460 that I was
00:50:21.920 better than I
00:50:22.580 thought or
00:50:24.020 better than I
00:50:24.540 remembered,
00:50:24.940 whatever?
00:50:26.660 And Predict It
00:50:27.620 does that for you.
00:50:28.580 So,
00:50:29.140 if you think
00:50:30.040 you can see
00:50:30.620 the future,
00:50:31.800 you might actually
00:50:32.940 be able to do it,
00:50:33.980 but you can test it
00:50:35.460 and predict it.
00:50:36.480 And when I say
00:50:36.920 see the future,
00:50:38.260 I mean,
00:50:38.820 just you have
00:50:39.320 better tools to
00:50:40.300 predict where
00:50:41.140 things are likely
00:50:41.980 to head.
00:50:42.780 So,
00:50:43.000 it's more about
00:50:43.480 likely,
00:50:44.200 it's not like a
00:50:45.260 photograph of the
00:50:45.960 future.
00:50:47.060 Did that help?
00:50:50.040 Oh,
00:50:50.500 I lost him.
00:50:51.360 All right.
00:50:53.380 That's all for
00:50:54.440 tonight.
00:50:56.640 I'm going to go
00:50:57.520 eat some dinner.
00:50:58.980 You're going to go
00:50:59.740 have a great
00:51:00.480 night's sleep.
00:51:01.760 I mean,
00:51:02.000 really great.
00:51:02.660 If you haven't
00:51:03.620 tried that trick
00:51:04.380 of imagining
00:51:05.100 you're the little
00:51:06.320 operator inside
00:51:07.580 the robot body,
00:51:09.040 you really have
00:51:09.720 to try it.
00:51:10.660 It's a strong
00:51:11.580 frame.
00:51:13.120 And I will talk
00:51:14.220 to you in the
00:51:14.620 morning.
00:51:15.180 We'll have some
00:51:15.780 fun then.
00:51:17.020 Bye.
00:51:17.380 Bye.
00:51:17.440 Bye.
00:51:17.500 Bye.
00:51:17.540 Bye.
00:51:17.580 Bye.
00:51:17.600 Bye.
00:51:17.620 Bye.
00:51:17.640 Bye.
00:51:17.700 Bye.
00:51:17.720 Bye.
00:51:17.740 Bye.
00:51:17.760 Bye.
00:51:17.780 Bye.
00:51:17.800 Bye.
00:51:18.340 Bye.
00:51:18.360 Bye.
00:51:18.380 Bye.
00:51:18.400 Bye.
00:51:18.420 Bye.
00:51:18.440 Bye.
00:51:18.480 Bye.
00:51:18.500 Bye.
00:51:18.540 Bye.
00:51:18.600 Bye.
00:51:19.560 Bye.
00:51:20.480 Bye.
00:51:20.500 Bye.
00:51:20.540 Bye.
00:51:20.560 Bye.
00:51:21.560 Bye.