Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 943 Scott Adams： Join the Best Coffee With Scott Adams of All Time. There Will Be Anger

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:13.060 Come on in, it's time for another episode of Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:18.180 Today will be the best one ever.

00:00:21.340 Best one of all time.

00:00:23.520 Some people accuse me of hyperbole, but I think those people are so wrong.

00:00:30.280 About everything, all the time.

00:00:32.940 Yeah, there will be whiteboard.

00:00:35.320 I'm saving it for the end, because it's sort of a big finish.

00:00:40.380 Well, you know, if you would like to get in here early, like the early birds, you get a little extra.

00:00:46.040 Something that the people who come in late don't get.

00:00:50.020 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and all you need is...

00:00:53.720 A cup or a mug or a glass, a tankard, chalice or stein, a kentine jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:01:00.280 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:02.020 I like coffee.

00:01:03.680 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day.

00:01:06.780 The thing that makes everything, including the pandemic, better.

00:01:11.460 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens now.

00:01:15.260 Go.

00:01:15.500 A little bit later, I'll be tweeting about moving some of my content to the Locals platform.

00:01:34.940 Have you heard of it?

00:01:35.700 Locals.com, local with an S in the end, locals.

00:01:41.580 It's Dave Rubin's platform in which creators such as myself, who do not like to be captives of the algorithm,

00:01:50.560 can put their materials, and you don't have to worry about the algorithm hiding it,

00:01:55.660 and you don't have to worry about me getting canceled,

00:01:59.920 and you don't have to worry about me getting censored.

00:02:05.940 You can also send me messages, and you can support me.

00:02:11.160 So I'm going to ask people who are supporting me on Patreon to just stop doing that.

00:02:18.800 And if they want to keep supporting me to do it on the Locals platform,

00:02:24.320 I'll Google something about that a little bit later so you know where the links are and everything.

00:02:27.660 So just because I know you're wondering, I know you're wondering,

00:02:33.680 it won't have any effect on the Periscope.

00:02:37.580 So, sorry, I didn't mean to worry you.

00:02:40.140 So the Periscopes will be just the same.

00:02:42.140 You can watch them here just like always.

00:02:43.940 But in addition, in addition to me putting them later on YouTube,

00:02:49.520 and I also put them on Rockfin and Bitit Shoot, I think at this point,

00:02:54.100 I will also be putting them on Locals.

00:02:55.920 But Locals will have also extra stuff.

00:03:03.080 So you can get all of my normal Periscopes the normal way,

00:03:08.180 but if you want extra stuff, you'll know where to get it.

00:03:11.280 And if you want to support me as a creator, that's the place to do it.

00:03:15.440 All right, I'll tell you more about that later.

00:03:19.500 Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York City.

00:03:22.640 Now, I have to admit, because I don't live in New York City,

00:03:26.460 I have a hard time getting interested in a mayor, a mayor of anything.

00:03:31.840 Any kind of mayor just doesn't interest me usually. 0.96

00:03:36.780 And people, at least TV shows, pundits and stuff, have been calling de Blasio dumb. 0.95

00:03:43.520 And I thought to myself, well, is he? 0.96

00:03:45.760 I mean, really?

00:03:46.920 He made it to be mayor of New York City, ran for president. 0.87

00:03:50.160 And he's not dumb, right? 0.63

00:03:54.760 And then the news comes out that he decided to tweet. 0.60

00:03:59.500 I don't know if he tweeted or announced it.

00:04:01.220 That he was singling out the Jewish community for potential harsher treatment for not self-isolating as well.

00:04:14.220 I guess it was some funeral and too many people got together and de Blasio got mad about that.

00:04:20.700 And I thought to myself, okay, okay, it can be true that these people caused a little bit of danger by getting together.

00:04:31.780 So it can be true that maybe they shouldn't have done what they did.

00:04:36.560 At the same time, it might not have been the best play from a political standpoint to single out the Jews for special law enforcement treatment.

00:04:51.200 How do you think that went over?

00:04:54.640 Now, if you think that the Jewish community said, huh, looks like we're being singled out for special law enforcement treatment.

00:05:04.760 Do you think that the Jewish community said, that's okay. 1.00

00:05:09.020 What's the worst thing that could happen?

00:05:12.000 No, no, it didn't go that way.

00:05:15.300 It went exactly the way you think it would go.

00:05:17.620 But the funny part is, de Blasio didn't see that coming?

00:05:23.520 There was nobody who warned him.

00:05:25.360 Hey, Bill, just give this another thought.

00:05:30.200 I know you're mad right now, but maybe just rest this until the morning.

00:05:36.380 Maybe write it down and before you hit send, maybe just read it out loud.

00:05:41.620 Maybe read it out loud to somebody just to get a second opinion.

00:05:49.920 I don't think that happened, which is hilarious to me.

00:05:53.000 Now, I don't think this story has any real legs because obviously de Blasio is not anti-Semitic.

00:05:59.360 I don't think there's, you know, nobody really thinks that.

00:06:02.200 It was just sort of inelegant.

00:06:04.320 And it's always worth, I always think it's worth the brushback pitch.

00:06:10.680 You know, if you're Jewish, you're not going to let that go, right? 1.00

00:06:14.680 And I think that that's appropriate.

00:06:16.760 So, but I would say it's just a brushback pitch.

00:06:19.160 Nothing of real consequence in the long run.

00:06:21.620 The Center for Disease Control, the CDC, indicates that the current average U.S. overall death rate,

00:06:33.060 even during the coronavirus pandemic, is lower than it has been for much of the past seven years

00:06:39.920 and well below the long-term average.

00:06:43.600 So, we're experiencing an unusually low rate of death in the United States.

00:06:48.460 Who predicted that?

00:06:52.780 No, I shouldn't say who predicted that because it sounds like I'm saying the World Health Organization predicted it,

00:06:58.980 but they did not.

00:07:00.440 I did.

00:07:01.940 So, I'm still predicting.

00:07:03.720 I'm going to stick with my prediction as I like to do even when they're apparently going to be wrong

00:07:10.200 because I like to call out when I got it wrong as well as when I got it right

00:07:15.180 because the whole point is we're tracking our predictions, right?

00:07:18.660 So, I do it in public.

00:07:20.460 If I get it right, I'll brag about it so you don't forget about it.

00:07:24.560 You'll get mad, but you won't forget it.

00:07:26.860 And if I get it wrong, I will make a big deal about that too because I think that's equally important.

00:07:34.620 Certainly, I make no claim that my predictions will all be right.

00:07:37.680 I hope nobody thinks that, right?

00:07:40.080 Does anybody think that I think my predictions will all be correct?

00:07:44.740 Because that would be crazy.

00:07:46.280 Nobody thinks that.

00:07:47.900 I mean, no matter what you think of yourself, you couldn't possibly think your predictions were all going to be right.

00:07:53.120 So, we'll keep an eye on that.

00:07:58.680 You know my old joke about the cat is on the roof?

00:08:04.120 You know, it's from a joke.

00:08:05.800 The cat is on the roof is sort of a way to tell you that there's not trouble yet, but there's trouble coming.

00:08:13.100 And I'm just softening you up for the bad news that's coming because from the joke,

00:08:17.040 the cat is on the roof is somebody is softening the message that the cat died.

00:08:22.000 So, they're trying to break it to you slowly.

00:08:25.920 Alyssa Milano tweets yesterday, I think, or the day before.

00:08:30.440 She says,

00:08:31.380 I'm aware of the new developments in Tara Reade's accusations against Joe Biden.

00:08:36.460 I want Tara, like every other survivor, to have the space to be heard and seen without being used as fodder.

00:08:43.380 I hear and see you, Tara.

00:08:45.480 Hashtag me too.

00:08:46.440 Now, of course, you know Alyssa Milano got tons of grief for being a strong backer of Joe Biden, 0.94

00:08:53.380 but also being a strong backer of Me Too, which are hard to be.

00:08:59.000 It's hard to be on the same team as both of them because of Joe's credible sounding accusations of Me Too-ing.

00:09:07.320 And I feel like the cat's on the roof, don't you?

00:09:12.180 Because when Biden loses Alyssa Milano, and of course, she's not saying that,

00:09:18.740 she's not saying that, but that's what I'm interpreting.

00:09:23.120 Because I don't think she would even bother making the statement,

00:09:26.740 unless the cat was on the roof, if you know what I mean.

00:09:30.820 Maybe in her own mind, you know, since I can't read her mind,

00:09:34.280 let me make sure that I'm not interpreting her thoughts.

00:09:36.840 But I'm saying that if you're trying to read the breadcrumbs,

00:09:41.640 this is sort of a tiptoe in the direction of,

00:09:45.180 yeah, we should listen to her.

00:09:47.260 We should definitely listen to her.

00:09:49.560 And maybe in a month or so, you'll hear, you'll see Alyssa.

00:09:55.080 You might see her say, you know, I was just with Joe Biden,

00:09:58.240 and I think he's got the flu or something.

00:10:02.640 I feel like Biden is going to have to fake a health problem to get out of this.

00:10:10.300 Like, I don't know how else you could do it.

00:10:11.720 But speaking of that, did you watch the so-called town hall,

00:10:16.240 which was really a digital interview, split screen,

00:10:20.000 at least part of it, between Joe Biden

00:10:21.960 and then he was being endorsed by Hillary Clinton.

00:10:24.500 So it's a split screen with Hillary and Joe Biden.

00:10:28.180 Now, the first thing, which is obvious,

00:10:31.700 is if you're accused of me tooing,

00:10:34.540 do you want Hillary Clinton to be in your split screen endorsing you?

00:10:39.460 Eh, I don't know.

00:10:41.560 It's a bad association.

00:10:44.060 So I don't think he won by the association,

00:10:46.660 at least in terms of the me too stuff.

00:10:49.360 I'm seeing in the comments that a number of people thought

00:10:53.080 that Joe Biden fell asleep while Clinton was talking.

00:10:58.680 I didn't see that.

00:11:00.560 Meaning, I looked at it.

00:11:02.400 It didn't look like he fell asleep to me.

00:11:04.180 It's funny.

00:11:05.340 It's funny because you could imagine he was falling asleep,

00:11:08.680 but it didn't look like that to me.

00:11:11.560 So I would call that fake news if you thought he actually fell asleep.

00:11:15.740 But it looked enough like it that it was funny.

00:11:19.620 But I think that's all it was.

00:11:21.100 But what was far funnier is, I don't know who did it,

00:11:27.100 but you know the meme?

00:11:28.660 I think Carpe Dunctum did most of these,

00:11:32.340 where you see Joe Biden, he's been photoshopped into other pictures,

00:11:36.480 and he's behind somebody sniffing their hair.

00:11:39.060 Well, the best version of that yet was a screenshot from the split screen

00:11:46.240 with Biden on one side and Hillary on the other. 0.76

00:11:49.420 And the side that normally would have Biden was empty.

00:11:52.340 It was just the background.

00:11:53.340 And he was photoshopped into the Hillary picture,

00:11:58.320 sniffing her hair from behind.

00:12:02.180 I didn't think that meme could get funnier.

00:12:05.400 Because when it first came out,

00:12:07.200 and you saw all the memes of Biden peeking out from behind people,

00:12:11.200 every one of them was funny.

00:12:13.060 I think I laughed at every single one of them.

00:12:15.560 But you think, okay, now we've seen them all.

00:12:19.840 You can't take that any further.

00:12:21.640 There's no place that could go.

00:12:22.760 It's really just the same thing.

00:12:24.840 It's just Biden smelling hair.

00:12:27.100 And then you see the empty frame on the digital town hall.

00:12:30.480 That was really funny.

00:12:33.560 So somebody needs to tell me who did that,

00:12:36.560 because I'd like to give them a call out.

00:12:38.360 Because that little extra of the fact that it was magically,

00:12:43.100 he magically disappeared on video and appeared in her video,

00:12:46.660 that's really good.

00:12:48.360 That is good meme making, that is.

00:12:51.040 So we've got to call that out.

00:12:52.760 So I've said before that the most worthless people in the coronavirus situation

00:13:01.520 are the people who act as though nobody thought of increasing testing.

00:13:06.540 Have you seen these people?

00:13:10.300 They're like the NPCs of the coronavirus.

00:13:13.600 They don't have any thoughts.

00:13:15.880 You just say, what do you think of the coronavirus?

00:13:17.620 Well, we should increase testing.

00:13:21.240 Yeah, that's something nobody thought of.

00:13:24.120 Speaking of which, Elizabeth Warren says in her tweet,

00:13:29.040 once again, if we're only testing people with symptoms who make it to the hospital,

00:13:33.840 then we are far from understanding this crisis.

00:13:36.760 And then she gives us helpful advice.

00:13:41.220 Keep in mind, this was yesterday.

00:13:43.840 Yesterday.

00:13:44.400 She goes, we need to drastically ramp up testing. 0.94

00:13:49.160 What?

00:13:49.920 We do?

00:13:52.260 That's the first time I've heard of this.

00:13:55.200 Why?

00:13:56.020 Where has she been this whole time?

00:13:58.360 Did you know that increasing testing would help?

00:14:01.760 Who knew?

00:14:03.220 My God.

00:14:04.580 We should elect this woman president immediately. 1.00

00:14:07.260 Because she's come up with this out-of-the-box idea of increasing testing.

00:14:11.960 And I love that she says it in public like nobody freaking thought of it.

00:14:15.880 Nobody thought of it?

00:14:17.060 Come on, Elizabeth Warren. 0.99

00:14:19.180 Are you trying to be the most useless person in the United States? 0.99

00:14:23.240 Because you're succeeding. 1.00

00:14:26.040 All right.

00:14:27.920 Speaking of that Biden town hall with Hillary,

00:14:31.640 one of the interesting things about watching all the famous people broadcast from home,

00:14:39.540 the way I am right now,

00:14:41.080 is that they're having a tough time with their hair and makeup.

00:14:44.840 Have you noticed that?

00:14:47.160 I just watched a clip from Chris Cuomo's show.

00:14:54.400 It looks like Chris Cuomo is giving himself a haircut.

00:14:58.600 It didn't go well.

00:14:59.860 Well, I hate to be unkind about people's appearance, except when it's funny.

00:15:06.740 So, and I can say this about Cuomo, because he's an unusually good-looking guy.

00:15:11.440 All right.

00:15:12.080 So you can't take that away from him.

00:15:13.680 He's a good-looking guy, but whoever cut his hair, it's all I can look at.

00:15:18.100 I was looking at a clip for some other purpose, because I was interested in the topic.

00:15:23.240 I don't even know what the topic was.

00:15:24.440 I was just looking at his hair.

00:15:25.560 I was like, how do you even do that?

00:15:27.660 Like, if you had a contest to ruin somebody's hair, I guess it would look like that.

00:15:34.540 That would be the winner.

00:15:35.300 So he just looks atrocious.

00:15:39.240 The other thing is the people who don't know how to do, you know, online stuff.

00:15:46.700 So the one thing you'll see is the people who are too close, and they're fish-eyed.

00:15:52.180 You know, there's something with the lens that makes them look distorted.

00:15:55.640 So they're way up close.

00:16:00.380 By the way, that's something I learned the hard way from input from you guys.

00:16:05.640 When I first was doing the periscopes, I would disturbingly do this, because I thought to

00:16:13.820 myself, well, obviously, don't you want me to, like, fill the screen with my face?

00:16:18.160 Of course you do.

00:16:18.980 And then I looked at my face, and I said, hmm, I think we can improve on that better, better, better, better.

00:16:29.800 Nail it.

00:16:31.700 Yeah, distance is your friend.

00:16:35.340 Take that to the bank.

00:16:37.000 If you don't have a professional makeup artist, go with distance.

00:16:42.660 Make sure your background looks a little interesting.

00:16:45.360 All right, but anyway, I was going to say that Hillary either had really bad makeup, or the 1.00

00:16:53.540 room was too warm, or she has coronavirus, or she was having a hot flash.

00:17:01.600 I'm not making fun of that.

00:17:02.860 I'm just saying that health-wise, I mean, I know that this seems like I'm just regurgitating

00:17:11.000 the same rumor from when she was running from office, but she didn't look well.

00:17:16.560 She looked flushed.

00:17:19.340 Did anybody see that?

00:17:23.120 Scott is right.

00:17:24.020 Camera needs to be even with the face.

00:17:26.060 Yeah.

00:17:26.600 And that's the other thing, is you need to, this needs to be on the same plane.

00:17:31.060 Most of the TV people are doing this.

00:17:33.880 They're doing this view, and then they're looking down.

00:17:40.920 It's just terrible.

00:17:43.960 So, anyway.

00:17:50.620 There's a lot going on today.

00:17:52.220 All right, so here's an idea for you, just to mull this a little bit.

00:17:57.140 So, we've got all these airlines.

00:17:58.280 It doesn't look like they have a business model, because nobody wants to be on an airplane

00:18:01.820 packed in little seats next to people who might be infected.

00:18:05.740 So, let me throw out this suggestion.

00:18:07.560 Suppose you removed all the middle rows from Coach.

00:18:11.680 So, let's say Coach has no middle seats.

00:18:14.700 Well, of course, now you've lost a third of your income, right?

00:18:18.560 So, could the airlines find a way to make back a third of their income if they get rid

00:18:24.520 of all the middle seats so that people have some separation?

00:18:27.200 And the answer is, I'm just speaking for myself, but I would definitely pay 20% more than the

00:18:35.460 normal tickets cost for Coach to have a seat that isn't next to somebody else, to have

00:18:41.500 a little room.

00:18:42.280 And I would pay that, coronavirus or not.

00:18:46.000 And wouldn't you pay 20% extra?

00:18:48.820 Now, keep in mind, you're paying 20% extra, but so is the person on the other side of the

00:18:55.940 aisle.

00:18:57.200 Right?

00:18:57.780 So, if you've got two people who are willing to pay 20% extra, then at least you're getting

00:19:05.580 close to the 30% that you lost.

00:19:08.660 Now, throw on top of that that fuel is really cheap.

00:19:12.680 Right?

00:19:13.620 Fuel is historically cheap.

00:19:15.380 Now, throw on top of that, that a third of your human cargo is gone, including your, so your 0.74

00:19:23.200 cargo load goes down by a third.

00:19:25.800 So, if your cargo load goes down by a third, that won't reduce your fuel by a third, because

00:19:30.940 the plane has weight as well.

00:19:32.540 But if you were to add up 20% extra ticket cost on each side of the missing aisle, and then

00:19:41.600 the savings from fuel, somebody's saying, oh my gee with a, OMG with a little eyes looking

00:19:52.460 up, somebody says, they're already empty, they're already empty, the middle, the middle row.

00:20:01.960 Well, you wouldn't necessarily have to remove them.

00:20:04.080 I mean, you don't have to physically remove them, although that would be cool.

00:20:08.820 Somebody says, you're rich.

00:20:10.880 Well, that is correct.

00:20:13.300 You are correct.

00:20:14.900 Do you know who flies?

00:20:17.560 Not poor people.

00:20:19.980 Poor people don't fly.

00:20:21.080 If you go to the airport, you won't see any.

00:20:25.240 And, you know, I'm not saying that's good or bad.

00:20:27.380 I'm just saying poor people don't fly. 1.00

00:20:29.500 So, probably the people who fly, I would say, represent the top 60% of income, maybe, in

00:20:39.060 the country.

00:20:39.780 I would guess that if you're in the lower 40% of income, it's just off the top of my head,

00:20:45.960 probably if you're in the lower 40% of income in the United States, you'll literally never

00:20:50.360 fly in an airplane.

00:20:52.260 I'm guessing.

00:20:53.940 You know, fact check me on that, but I'll bet that's close to true. 0.96

00:20:57.780 Now, that doesn't mean you wouldn't fly once in a while if you had to.

00:21:01.360 You know, it's just a death in the family or something.

00:21:03.800 But I would bet the bottom 40% of income just don't ever fly.

00:21:07.980 So, could the top, let's say the top half of people who fly, could they afford 20% extra

00:21:16.860 on a coach ticket?

00:21:21.020 Most could.

00:21:22.800 Most could.

00:21:24.240 And who knows if they have to even increase it that much.

00:21:26.840 It could be that the reduction in fuel costs is so much that you don't have to increase

00:21:31.820 the ticket costs.

00:21:33.040 Maybe only 10%.

00:21:34.160 Would you even know the difference?

00:21:35.840 Let me ask you this.

00:21:36.780 Given that flight costs are all over the map, you know, you can buy a ticket today and then

00:21:43.980 the price tomorrow drops by $200.

00:21:46.960 Nobody even knows what a ticket is supposed to cost, right?

00:21:50.660 Does anybody even know?

00:21:52.120 If you paid 10% too much for your ticket, would you even know?

00:21:56.700 Because what are you going to compare it to?

00:21:59.460 So, first of all, you wouldn't even know if they raised it.

00:22:02.840 All right.

00:22:03.400 There's a something called the epidemiological model.

00:22:09.280 Sometime at about the time that this crisis is over, I'll be able to pronounce that on the

00:22:15.280 first try, but we're not there yet.

00:22:17.340 So, it's a different model for predicting the deaths, and this model has been updated, and

00:22:25.500 the current best prediction, and I think this prediction takes into account the going back

00:22:31.460 to work, so the loosening of the social distancing.

00:22:36.260 And their model says they're predicting that there will be a total of 153,000 deaths in

00:22:43.640 the United States, with a predicted range of from 87,000 to 302,000.

00:22:51.700 So, the current updated model, and this is a model that's used in 40 countries, so it has

00:22:58.180 some credibility with model people.

00:23:00.780 It doesn't have any credibility with me, of course, but it has credibility with model

00:23:05.120 people, I guess.

00:23:07.540 So, what would happen?

00:23:08.760 Let me ask you this.

00:23:09.420 So, a few weeks ago, I asked people who were saying that coronavirus is no big problem.

00:23:16.080 I asked them, what would be the number of deaths, gross, not net, what would be the total number

00:23:22.700 of people that were identified as dying from coronavirus that would make you change your

00:23:29.020 mind after the fact?

00:23:30.840 So, at the moment, you, skeptic, think that the coronavirus is not that much bigger deal than

00:23:37.320 the regular flu, what would it take for you to say, ah, I guess I was wrong, that is bigger

00:23:43.020 than the regular flu.

00:23:44.480 What's that number?

00:23:45.780 It's somewhere around 200,000.

00:23:47.880 I think most people would come in at about that range, right?

00:23:52.720 If it's over 200,000, yeah, maybe that was a bigger deal.

00:23:56.860 Now, that doesn't mean that's different from saying that we should have handled it the way

00:24:01.600 we handled it, that we shouldn't open up the places that don't have much of a problem.

00:24:06.140 I'm not making any kind of argument about whether you should open up or how.

00:24:10.480 I'm just saying that if it comes in at 200,000 people died because we opened up, it still might

00:24:17.400 be the right choice, but it'll be interesting to watch these models converge.

00:24:23.780 Now, the total number of dead might be negative or zero because of all the fewer people dying

00:24:31.100 from other purposes, and even the regular flu, I guess, came in at the lowest death rate

00:24:37.560 in a while.

00:24:39.640 All right.

00:24:40.480 What happens if this model is correct?

00:24:42.620 Let's say it comes in at 87,000 deaths.

00:24:45.860 Would you then say that the, yeah, I think that would be wrong then, 87,000, because that

00:24:52.520 would be with, without mitigation.

00:24:56.020 Now, let's just wait and see.

00:24:59.980 All right.

00:25:00.940 So, you've heard me talk about these two doctors, the Erickson and Masihi, and the viral video

00:25:07.960 that YouTube took down because they said it wasn't accurate, and there were two medical

00:25:13.360 boards who rebuked these people.

00:25:15.440 And the back story, which you've already heard, I'm going to give you an update so it's not

00:25:19.180 the same story you've already heard, but the back story is that people asked me, before

00:25:24.620 this was debunked by medical people, to give my opinion on it, and I looked at five minutes

00:25:29.540 of it and said it's complete horseshit, it's not credible, there's a whole bunch of math

00:25:34.760 mistakes, there's comparison mistakes, there's lack of knowledge, it's just completely worthless. 0.79

00:25:40.180 So, that was my hot take, having no medical training whatsoever.

00:25:46.540 Within a day, that was completely backed up by medical professionals who said, oh, these

00:25:52.020 guys are not even doing the math right, and basically the same thing I said, just it was

00:25:57.800 reckless.

00:26:00.620 So, here's the interesting part.

00:26:02.540 At the same time that Tucker Carlson was showing the video as valid and something that we should

00:26:10.560 listen to, at the same time, over at MSNBC on Chris Hayes' show, they were debunking it.

00:26:20.860 So, literally, you could see the two movies on different screens, it's the same screen, but

00:26:27.160 you'd have to change the channel.

00:26:28.300 And, literally, at the same time, the same news was reported as true on one and completely

00:26:35.720 debunked at the other.

00:26:39.260 Somebody says, show your work.

00:26:41.380 Don't have to.

00:26:42.800 Don't have to show my work.

00:26:45.520 Because the medical professionals have debunked it, and I would defer to them.

00:26:51.840 So, you can ask them to show their work, but, and let me, let me take a page from my book,

00:27:00.980 Loser Think.

00:27:02.440 Now, when people said to me, Scott, you're saying that this is all BS, but you're not

00:27:07.460 giving us any examples.

00:27:10.000 And, I talk about that in my book.

00:27:12.720 You should never fall for the trap of arguing all the examples.

00:27:16.700 It's better to pick the best one.

00:27:21.300 And, you just say, can you send your champion?

00:27:24.060 Instead of having our armies battle, because there are a whole bunch of different points,

00:27:28.680 and you don't want to get into arguing every one of them, why don't you pick your best champion?

00:27:33.560 And, I'll have my best champion fight, and we'll decide it that way.

00:27:37.200 Now, best champion in this context means, what is the strongest argument that you think the

00:27:43.740 doctor's made?

00:27:44.480 Just pick out one point, and I'll tell you why it's wrong.

00:27:48.940 Or, I'll agree with it and say, yeah, but we already knew that.

00:27:52.120 So, there's a whole bunch of stuff they said that falls into the category of, we already

00:27:57.800 knew that.

00:27:58.980 Which is, it's bad for the economy to stay closed.

00:28:03.740 We already knew that.

00:28:05.580 Some people might die because the economy is shut down.

00:28:09.640 That's not new.

00:28:10.880 We kind of knew that.

00:28:11.760 So, if anybody wants to debate me, don't just tell me any specific claim, and then I'll

00:28:20.700 tell you what I think of it.

00:28:21.840 The main claim, of course, is that he had done his own samples, and then he said, based

00:28:26.500 on my samples, I predict that this is true about the country, and that's just crazy.

00:28:31.820 Because his sample was not in any way representative, and nobody imagines that it could be.

00:28:38.020 So, it all sort of started with that.

00:28:40.700 And if you take that error and then you work from there, everything else was nonsense, which

00:28:45.760 is what it was.

00:28:46.800 Now, I guess Tucker also talked about the fact that this video was taken down, which creates

00:28:54.080 a whole new, interesting topic.

00:28:56.980 Because separate from the question of whether it was accurate, do you remove inaccurate claims

00:29:03.900 from the internet?

00:29:04.880 And who gets to decide?

00:29:08.480 Who gets to decide what is inaccurate enough?

00:29:12.300 At what point is it a violation of free speech?

00:29:15.500 And at what point is it just good common sense, so you don't want a bunch of conspiracy theories

00:29:20.340 mucking up things during a crisis?

00:29:23.360 Well, of course, the standard we all compare it to is yelling fire in a crowded theater,

00:29:32.020 the most classic comparison.

00:29:35.400 And I heard people argue that data should always be allowed on the internet because you

00:29:42.660 always have the opportunity for the commenters to say it's not true.

00:29:46.500 So you can get the claim, and you can get the counterclaim, and then the reader can make

00:29:50.300 up their own mind, to which I said, yelling fire in a crowded theater is also data.

00:29:58.180 That's what it is.

00:29:59.660 It is somebody who stands up in a crowded theater and has information to give the rest of the

00:30:05.580 people in the theater.

00:30:06.980 Could be right.

00:30:08.740 There might actually be a fire.

00:30:10.560 Could be incorrect.

00:30:12.660 Maybe there is no fire.

00:30:14.320 But you see, it doesn't matter.

00:30:15.660 Because if the point is that you should always just present the data and let people decide,

00:30:23.220 would it matter if there's no fire?

00:30:25.620 It's just information.

00:30:27.260 So the point is that there is information that can kill people.

00:30:31.360 And we do make very rare, very rare exceptions, because the yelling fire in a movie theater

00:30:38.500 is less about transmitting data and more about immediately causing a panic that gets a bunch

00:30:43.800 of people killed.

00:30:44.380 So that's the most immediate, obvious, clear danger.

00:30:49.340 That's why that example is so good.

00:30:51.720 Is it the same in a coronavirus emergency that you put information out that people might

00:30:58.240 take as true, might act upon it, and what would that cause?

00:31:03.220 Well, in this case, it could cause, oh, I don't know, the collapse of civilization, the

00:31:09.060 death of hundreds of millions of people.

00:31:12.400 That's the downside, right?

00:31:13.720 If you get the coronavirus thing wrong, the downside is, I don't know, 100 million people

00:31:20.440 die, whatever it is. 0.93

00:31:22.280 So it's pretty big stakes.

00:31:24.800 Speaking of that, Jay Rosen, who I believe is a journalism professor somewhere, a group

00:31:32.420 of group of, and he tweets that a group of professors, including him, have written an open letter to

00:31:38.280 the heads of ABC, CBS, NBC, NBC, NBC, CNN, petitioning for an end to live coverage of the president's

00:31:46.220 briefings.

00:31:46.740 And the reason given is because the president's briefings, in his opinion, spread misinformation.

00:31:56.160 Now, number one, is that true?

00:31:59.680 Is it true that the president's briefing spreads misinformation?

00:32:05.720 Totally true, right?

00:32:07.680 Totally true.

00:32:10.120 It's totally true that some of the information that comes from the president is wrong, later

00:32:16.740 it gets corrected, but how unusual is that in a pandemic, given that nearly 100% of our information

00:32:24.180 is wrong in the early stages, almost all of it.

00:32:28.580 And yet we expect our politicians to tell us what they know and keep us up to date, even

00:32:33.340 if it's wrong.

00:32:34.420 Just tell us what you know.

00:32:35.640 You know, we'll understand if it's wrong, but tell us what you think you know.

00:32:40.180 Keep us informed.

00:32:41.980 So, under those conditions, would it be reasonable to expect that any president would be giving

00:32:48.940 only accurate information?

00:32:51.480 And my answer is no.

00:32:54.920 No, it's not.

00:32:55.660 It's not reasonable to expect it would all be accurate.

00:32:58.300 But is there some line beyond which you say, okay, we know it's normal to have some inaccuracies,

00:33:07.260 but is there some line that gets crossed that's just crazy talk?

00:33:11.280 And I would say that line has not been crossed, in my opinion, because this is just subjective,

00:33:17.480 right?

00:33:18.080 But I've watched most of the president's briefings, and I'm pretty sure that when Jay Rosen is talking

00:33:25.420 about, you know, dangerous and reckless information, he's really talking about what the press does,

00:33:32.580 not what the president does.

00:33:34.120 Because was it the president who suggested in public that maybe we should think about or

00:33:40.320 consider injecting Clorox and Lysol into our bodies with a hypodermic needle?

00:33:47.700 Did the president suggest that?

00:33:49.460 No, he did not.

00:33:50.780 No, that fake news came from the news.

00:33:53.840 That came from ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, MSNBC, CNN, and, as of today, Fox News.

00:34:04.320 Fox News has an article, I'll talk about that in a minute, which also claims, without any

00:34:09.840 context given, that the president of the United States suggested, I don't think they use the

00:34:17.320 word suggested, but wondered aloud, according to even Fox News.

00:34:23.840 Today.

00:34:24.620 There's an article today on the Fox News site saying that the president talked about injecting

00:34:31.780 disinfectants with no context given.

00:34:35.120 What is the reader of that article going to think disinfectants means?

00:34:39.840 Well, they're going to think it means Clorox and Lysol.

00:34:42.380 That's the fake news.

00:34:43.680 The real news is that the context he was talking about was UV light, which is a disinfectant

00:34:50.460 and is inserted into the body in a variety of ways.

00:34:53.780 It can go through a vein, can go down your trachea, can go into your lungs.

00:34:58.340 But in each case, it's injected, it's a disinfectant, it's what the president was talking about, it's

00:35:05.300 real, it's being tested in Cedars-Sinai, there are commercial products already built around

00:35:10.400 it that disinfect hospitals using the same technology.

00:35:13.520 And this guy, Jay Rosen, thinks that the president should not be allowed to talk because the

00:35:21.540 following entities completely misinterpreted, I don't know, I don't even know if it was

00:35:27.180 willful, but they completely got the wrong information.

00:35:30.560 Who got the wrong information?

00:35:32.160 ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News.

00:35:37.400 Do you know who got that story right?

00:35:42.800 Breitbart?

00:35:44.680 Breitbart got it right.

00:35:47.500 So it's obvious that you can get it right.

00:35:51.280 You know, on Fox, Fox Channel, Fox News Channel, if you watch The Five, they got it right.

00:35:59.000 They knew the context.

00:36:00.680 They talked about the context.

00:36:02.260 So it's not like you can't get it right.

00:36:04.920 It's not like this is hard to get right.

00:36:08.380 This is easy to get right.

00:36:10.420 It's really easy.

00:36:12.560 And so, you know, this Jay Rosen thing, this is just a violation of free speech.

00:36:22.360 And it's based on a complete misinterpretation of what's happening.

00:36:26.200 Because the fake news is coming not just from the president.

00:36:29.720 Yes, he's had some facts that don't match the fact checking.

00:36:33.120 True.

00:36:33.420 But there's the worst parts of it, the reckless parts, the parts that are actually dangerous.

00:36:40.960 Lately, they're coming from the press.

00:36:42.880 They're not coming from the president.

00:36:44.980 But they both have some stuff to explain.

00:36:48.400 All right.

00:36:48.740 And if we were to ban organizations who give us fake news that's also reckless, would you have to also ban the Surgeon General of the United States?

00:37:05.320 Because he told us masks don't work. 0.99

00:37:07.060 How about the World Health Organization, whose information is pretty much all bullshit? 0.99

00:37:11.360 Should the World Health Organization be banned from reporting, except to report that they said silly stuff? 0.99

00:37:20.120 Maybe.

00:37:21.520 I don't know.

00:37:22.320 Here's an idea that I was thinking about, and it turns out that others are thinking about it, too.

00:37:30.180 I was planning on talking about it.

00:37:31.640 Maybe it's just obvious.

00:37:32.700 But the Belgian government is considering allowing people to form what they call social bubbles of 10 people or so.

00:37:41.340 Meaning that rather than having a full end to social isolation, if you could identify 10 people, it could be friends and family, whatever combination, and you just agree to mostly hang around with that 10 people, that you would get a little extra freedom.

00:37:59.140 To which I say, you know, in the short run, I'm willing to listen to anything.

00:38:07.220 In an emergency, willing to listen to anything.

00:38:10.920 But I don't know if this will work.

00:38:12.960 That's the reason I didn't talk about it.

00:38:14.440 I like the thinking behind it, but I don't think it's practical.

00:38:19.320 Let me explain to you how a normal family would manage this idea.

00:38:23.480 Hey, normal family.

00:38:24.860 Family, let's say, two kids.

00:38:27.400 Two adults, two kids.

00:38:29.140 And they hear that they can form a pod of 10.

00:38:33.640 There's four people in the family.

00:38:35.920 And they can only be in a pod that has a maximum of 10.

00:38:39.920 Now, those of you who have been parents, game this out.

00:38:44.420 It's a disaster, isn't it?

00:38:46.180 It's a disaster. 1.00

00:38:50.400 Ban Scott for being a sociopathic liar, somebody says. 0.99

00:38:54.280 I'm glad that the Chinese have decided to join us. 0.99

00:38:59.580 I'm not done with China, by the way.

00:39:01.680 Oh, I'm not done with China.

00:39:03.880 There's more coming on that.

00:39:04.880 So, yeah, the way it would go in any normal family is that the kids would say, all right, great.

00:39:11.020 So I'll have my friend Brittany and my friend Bob and, you know, they can bring their two friends.

00:39:17.200 And then the parents say, um, no, because that would max out our whole 10 with just one kid.

00:39:22.700 Because, you know, we adults, we want to have a few of our friends.

00:39:26.400 And it just becomes this big shootout in the family.

00:39:30.320 So I think this social bubble idea, while it's well-intentioned, and one could imagine that there would be some situations, especially with young people, where it works.

00:39:39.980 You know, if you're single, it's probably a pretty good deal.

00:39:44.420 If you could find 10 people who only want to hang out with each other.

00:39:47.380 But for families, this would be a nightmare, trying to negotiate that.

00:39:50.480 Um, I would like to, I would like to correct a framing of something, which snuck up on me.

00:40:01.040 So, as you know, I like to crow about my successful predictions, especially when the experts have predicted otherwise.

00:40:11.580 And you, you've heard all the examples, but just, you mentioned them quickly, when there was a Cuban sonic weapon story, and I said, nah, that's not true.

00:40:21.600 And there was the, the masks don't work, and I said, nah, that's not true. 0.98

00:40:26.640 And there was the, the video of the doctors that I just talked about, and I said, nah, it's all bullshit. 0.97

00:40:32.780 And quite reasonably, and these are just a few examples of which there are many, many of them you already know. 0.90

00:40:40.640 So, you've seen quite a few examples in which I have taken the opposite side of experts.

00:40:47.560 Have you not?

00:40:48.740 So, let's first establish that on many occasions, you've seen me take the opposite side from experts, and the consensus of experts.

00:40:57.400 And you've seen that that's worked out extraordinarily well for me.

00:41:02.560 The whiteboard's coming up, somebody asked about that.

00:41:05.540 It's worked out really well.

00:41:06.820 And I've had weird success going against the experts, and then being right.

00:41:12.600 And it includes in my personal life, too.

00:41:14.920 Because in my personal life, I, you know, found a solution for my, my incurable voice problem, when my doctors couldn't.

00:41:24.260 I tracked down the one place in the world I could get it fixed.

00:41:27.320 So, I have a long track record from childhood on, in which I have gone against experts, and it works out way more than half the time.

00:41:38.180 Way more than half.

00:41:39.440 Closer to 90%, I would guess.

00:41:42.040 And I can't even think of any time it didn't work out.

00:41:44.400 But I'll say 90% just because there must have been times it didn't.

00:41:48.160 But here's the framing that I think everybody gets wrong, and that's completely my fault.

00:41:53.400 Because I've never framed it correctly, so let me do that now.

00:41:57.540 All right?

00:41:59.360 Allow me to do that now.

00:42:00.720 The framing that's incorrect is the one that I allowed to spontaneously pop up because of the poor way I talked about it.

00:42:09.820 And that frame was that I'm against the experts.

00:42:13.660 And that naturally makes you think, Scott, how much medical training do you have?

00:42:21.600 None.

00:42:21.980 How much legal training do you have?

00:42:26.200 None.

00:42:27.440 I know you majored in economics, but did you get a Nobel Prize like the person that you're criticizing?

00:42:34.860 No, I did not.

00:42:37.060 How about your technical expertise?

00:42:39.460 Did you get that at MIT?

00:42:41.560 No, I did not.

00:42:43.720 So, that's the wrong frame, and I let that happen.

00:42:48.420 So, that's all on me.

00:42:49.660 All right?

00:42:49.860 So, I'm taking full responsibility.

00:42:51.980 Here's the frame I should have presented from the start.

00:42:57.780 I'm an expert.

00:43:00.120 I'm an expert.

00:43:01.740 But I'm a special kind of expert.

00:43:03.540 because of my studies of persuasion, etc., because of my experience, which is fairly broad in terms of my talent stack.

00:43:13.400 I've been in a lot of places, seen a lot of things from finance to you name it. 0.94

00:43:18.020 And my claim is this, that my pattern recognition for bullshit is better than the layperson.

00:43:30.320 In other words, I do claim expertise, but not on the topics I'm talking about. 0.89

00:43:35.860 I don't claim medical expertise, I don't claim medical expertise, I don't even claim financial expertise, and I could probably, I mean, I could, but I don't even claim that.

00:43:44.720 I claim that I have a special skill, and other people do too, I'm not the one person who can do this. 0.65

00:43:51.400 But there are people who have similar skills that I do, who can detect bullshit from other experts.

00:44:00.640 And I should have always framed it that way.

00:44:04.140 Because when I was looking at the doctors, I was not saying to myself,

00:44:07.920 Oh, doctors, you got it wrong.

00:44:09.880 This is what you should prescribe.

00:44:12.100 Because that would be me being an expert.

00:44:14.780 I didn't say I could be a better expert than the doctors. 1.00

00:44:18.000 I was just saying, I'm listening to them, and my filter is going, my bullshit filter is just going crazy. 0.99

00:44:23.940 I mean, I don't think I've ever had, you know, more flashing lights for bullshit than I did when I was looking at those doctors. 0.99

00:44:31.280 Now, here's the interesting part. 0.97

00:44:33.600 There's a book called Blink by Malcolm Gladwell.

00:44:38.100 And he talks about the fact, I don't know if this has been debunked, but it makes a good story anyway.

00:44:42.700 He talks about the fact that experts make decisions before they know why.

00:44:48.760 And the example given is that an art expert can often identify a fake, you know, painting by the masters, but it's a fake one.

00:44:58.800 They can usually identify it right away, but they don't know why.

00:45:03.500 In other words, the answer comes first, and then they have to say, um, and the reason it's a fake is because...

00:45:10.920 And then they think about it, and like, I don't know, maybe it's because the brush stroke over here looks different, or he never, you know, he was born before the iPhones.

00:45:20.480 No, that's a bad example.

00:45:21.920 So there couldn't be an iPhone sitting on the table.

00:45:25.160 But anyway, the experts know something's wrong before they know why.

00:45:29.500 I would argue that I have that same sensation. 0.95

00:45:32.320 So when I looked at the doctors, I knew it was bullshit before I knew why. 0.82

00:45:36.500 And that's part of the reason that when people said, give me the reasons, I was demurring. 0.93

00:45:43.240 I can give you a reason, but it's sort of an after-the-fact reason. 0.84

00:45:47.620 It's me like the art expert saying, okay, I already told you this bullshit, but now I guess I've got to give you a reason why. 0.85

00:45:55.860 Well, I guess it's that brush stroke thing right there. 0.98

00:45:58.980 So you should judge me that way.

00:46:03.160 So the way I would like to be judged is not that I'm an expert or pretending to be an expert, because I'm not, and overruling experts. 0.96

00:46:11.460 I'm simply my own expert at identifying bullshit. 0.98

00:46:15.660 That's it. 0.98

00:46:17.320 Likewise, when I look at climate change, I'm not a scientist.

00:46:22.100 But I can tell that the odds that the scientists got the temperature part right, that there's something happening with CO2 and temperature, I can't guarantee that's right.

00:46:35.100 But if I had to look at the pattern of my life and the odds and how many ways they've looked at it and measured it and how long they've been correcting it,

00:46:42.620 I would say they're probably, probably right on the temperature part, but not the models.

00:46:50.520 To say that the prediction models are accurate is just crazy.

00:46:54.340 There's no such thing as that.

00:46:56.280 They might tell you that there's something you should think about, and they do, but they don't tell you what the temperature is going to be in 80 years.

00:47:03.540 That's not a thing.

00:47:04.260 So my bullshit filter on climate change says, can't be sure about the temperature part, more likely true than not, but it doesn't mean that we're doomed, because that's in the models. 0.99

00:47:18.420 That part's ridiculous. 0.99

00:47:20.280 Could be doomed, maybe not doomed, but using those models to determine it is ridiculous, in my opinion.

00:47:27.020 All right, because in large part, because they can't predict human achievement and human ingenuity and any changes that happen.

00:47:36.620 You know, which climate models predicted that the pandemic would remove pollution in three months?

00:47:44.600 You know, it's not going to make a difference in the long run, but there's so many things that the model can't consider.

00:47:50.500 All right, funniest political story of the day is that former Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate, Stacey Abrams, is embarrassingly campaigning to get the vice president nomination for Biden.

00:48:05.440 And she recently said she totally believes Joe Biden's denial, totally believes Joe Biden, that that Me Too thing didn't happen.

00:48:14.960 And I thought to myself, whoever gets the nomination is going to have to say that, aren't they?

00:48:23.480 Think about that.

00:48:24.740 Whoever gets the nomination is going to have to say what Stacey Abrams said. 1.00

00:48:29.940 They're not going to be able to get away with it's unproven.

00:48:33.860 They're not going to be able to get away with, you know, she should be heard.

00:48:39.020 They're not going to be able to get away with, you know, women should be believed, but let's look into it. 1.00

00:48:44.200 They're not going to be able to get away with, it was a long time ago, you know, let's not dredge up the past.

00:48:50.660 There's just nothing they can get away with.

00:48:52.940 The vice presidential candidate will have to look in the camera a whole bunch of times and say, I believe Joe Biden didn't do that.

00:49:04.900 How is anybody going to do that?

00:49:07.740 Really?

00:49:09.020 How is anybody going to do that?

00:49:10.580 Even Alyssa Milano, who is clearly as in Joe Biden's camp as you could be, I mean, she said it publicly, she's endorsed him, she's hugged him in public, she tweets about him all the time.

00:49:24.040 And even she can't go all the way to say, I believe Joe Biden is telling the truth.

00:49:31.800 Even she won't do that.

00:49:33.940 All right.

00:49:34.440 But the vice presidential candidate is going to have to do it.

00:49:37.360 And I think that Stacey Abrams, I have to give her credit, because I've consistently under, I guess, underappreciated her talent, because I haven't seen much of her.

00:49:51.940 So I didn't know what kind of talent she has or not.

00:49:54.580 I don't think she's necessarily a great persuader.

00:49:57.520 But look at how close she is to being president of the United States. 1.00

00:50:03.660 For somebody, you know, for somebody who, somebody says, Stacey Abrams did that already?

00:50:12.580 Did what already?

00:50:14.820 Is there an update to this?

00:50:16.060 But what's funny, well, the whole thing is funny.

00:50:22.460 But what's funny is that Stacey Abrams is closer to becoming president of the United States than all the people who didn't do this.

00:50:30.500 So all the people who are not willing to blatantly lie about this are not really in the running for vice president.

00:50:39.680 They're not.

00:50:40.260 And given that Biden himself might not last, and given that President Trump, you have to assume he's on at least a little bit of shaky territory because of the coronavirus, Stacey Abrams, by this bald-faced lie, is it a bald-faced lie or a bald-faced lie?

00:50:59.560 I never get that right.

00:51:01.260 But this is clearly a lie.

00:51:02.740 Stacey Abrams, you know, I don't think you have to be a mind reader to know that the most you could know is that you don't know what happened.

00:51:13.420 That's the most you could say.

00:51:15.280 But to say you believe Joe Biden, well, that's just a lie.

00:51:18.520 That's just a lie, right?

00:51:19.980 I mean, do we agree?

00:51:21.660 I know I'm not.

00:51:22.840 I always warn you against mind reading.

00:51:25.700 But in this case, this one's sort of simple, right?

00:51:29.920 I guess we can't rule out the possibility that she's the most gullible person in the United States. 0.97

00:51:36.820 It's possible.

00:51:38.440 Can't rule it out.

00:51:39.740 All right.

00:51:42.760 Remember I always tell you that I've often complimented Mike Pence not for being a force of nature like the president, but rather for not making errors.

00:51:54.120 And the president and vice president has violated that that pattern.

00:51:59.400 So he goes, the vice president goes to the Mayo Clinic and he's the only person who doesn't wear a mask.

00:52:04.460 And he'd been told to wear a mask.

00:52:06.800 And I thought to myself, that is so non Mike Pence.

00:52:11.300 Because really, Mike Pence is all about not making unforced errors.

00:52:16.140 And that was just an unforced error.

00:52:18.220 Now, I don't think it's important.

00:52:19.300 You know, it doesn't rank up there and things that are going to move the election, but it has to be called out because he's so consistent at not making that kind of error.

00:52:30.820 It just is worth noting.

00:52:33.700 Hillary Clinton's getting pushback from the right because she said during the Biden thing that you don't want to waste a good crisis. 1.00

00:52:41.240 And maybe this would be a time to get health care. 0.98

00:52:43.160 Everybody who's complaining about Hillary Clinton saying don't waste a crisis, you're all hypocrites. 1.00

00:52:49.960 You're all hypocrites. 0.99

00:52:51.820 Because every conservative has quoted that and used the same sentence in different contexts. 0.99

00:52:58.880 Don't want to let a good crisis go to waste.

00:53:01.000 It's something everybody says.

00:53:02.600 It's just smart.

00:53:04.000 It's not bad.

00:53:04.900 And if you're trying to find something bad about Hillary Clinton saying a common political thing that literally everybody says, left and right, and exactly in this context, it's a real crisis.

00:53:17.760 Maybe you can find something good out of it.

00:53:19.620 I've said it.

00:53:20.420 Everybody said it.

00:53:21.520 Most common thing in the world. 0.99

00:53:23.180 And the dumbasses in the news, the pundits are like, oh, we got one. 0.99

00:53:27.620 We got one on Hillary Clinton. 0.99

00:53:29.520 She said a common thing.

00:53:31.100 So that must be bad.

00:53:32.780 But it just makes me want to throw up in my mouth when I see people wasting their time on that criticism.

00:53:39.740 Here's a good story. 0.97

00:53:41.560 So China's puppet, you could say bitch, but China's puppet, the World Health Organization, they, quote, accidentally published some negative data on the drug remdesivir. 0.97

00:53:57.460 So this was a while ago. 0.98

00:53:58.780 This isn't brand new news.

00:54:00.160 But not too long ago, the World Health Organization accidentally, they say accidentally, published negative information on remdesivir.

00:54:09.080 Now, of course, a lot of people saw it, and then the World Health Organization said, oops, oops, we didn't mean to do that, and they took it down.

00:54:17.200 So hold that in your head, hold in your head that the World Health Organization, who is China's puppet, accidentally put negative information about remdesivir on a public website. 0.72

00:54:31.300 At the same time, China was actively trying to steal Gilead's, Gilead is the maker of remdesivir, their intellectual property by trying to patent remdesivir in China.

00:54:45.020 I'll bet you didn't think that was possible, right?

00:54:47.180 If you don't follow intellectual property and patents and copyrights, you're saying to yourself, wait a minute.

00:54:52.620 But remdesivir is already patented, obviously, because it's a drug that Gilead has had for a long time, clearly patented.

00:55:01.700 Well, China can do anything they want, because patent law is made by a government. 0.51

00:55:09.900 And apparently the government of China is going to let China, or somebody in China, patent Gilead's drug after they told the world it didn't work through that clever little leak on the World Health Organization.

00:55:25.800 Do you see how bad this is?

00:55:28.000 Now, I can't automatically say this is all part of a large plot and that the leaked data was all part of the same scheme as stealing the intellectual property of the remdesivir.

00:55:40.320 But given our recent experience with China, I think you have to assume it's at least likely.

00:55:48.660 It's probably more likely than not, given recent experience.

00:55:52.880 You can't know for sure, but I'd say more likely than not.

00:55:55.800 Can we do business with a country that would lie to us about a promising drug that could cause 100,000 deaths in this country because we didn't have the right information, if it works,

00:56:08.020 at the same time that they're actively stealing the intellectual property for the drug?

00:56:13.920 Can you do business with that country?

00:56:16.380 No.

00:56:17.620 No, you cannot.

00:56:19.000 You cannot do business with that country. 0.89

00:56:20.660 So I think we need to kick out every student, Chinese student in this country who's in any kind of a STEM job, especially, because mostly they're the elite's children, 1.00

00:56:34.680 and they really, really do care about getting an education in the United States for status, etc., but also for stealing our stuff. 0.98

00:56:42.280 You know, the Chinese students over here are stealing stuff. 1.00

00:56:48.680 So I think we should ship them all back. 1.00

00:56:53.160 Howard Stern doubled down on his statement that the president's followers should all drink disinfectants and die. 0.97

00:57:02.480 And, of course, it's an outrage, but it's Howard Stern.

00:57:10.880 Don't you have to keep it in context?

00:57:13.420 You know, if a politician said that, I'd say, outrage, how can you say such a thing?

00:57:18.080 But Howard Stern is literally a shock jock.

00:57:21.760 If he says something like that, why is that news?

00:57:25.380 Except that he seems to believe the fake news.

00:57:29.220 I think Howard Stern, who I used to think was smart, turns out he's not, because he believes the fake news that the president suggested drinking Clorox and Lysol. 1.00

00:57:38.660 So if you believe that, if you believe that, you're just dumb. 0.99

00:57:45.960 There's no way around it. 1.00

00:57:47.240 If you believe that the president suggested injecting or drinking Clorox and Lysol, you're just dumb. 0.99

00:57:56.640 There isn't any way to soften that. 0.99

00:57:58.420 I'm sorry.

00:57:59.840 There's no way around that.

00:58:01.720 I wish there were.

00:58:05.840 Let's see.

00:58:06.740 And there's an account on Twitter that I follow called COVID-19 Crusher.

00:58:19.440 So it's all one word, COVID-19 Crusher.

00:58:22.860 I don't know who this is.

00:58:25.040 And I'm a little concerned because I don't know who it is.

00:58:27.880 Because it mostly tweets promising therapeutics and things that could crush the COVID.

00:58:38.180 But it seems to concentrate on hydroxychloroquine.

00:58:42.720 And it publishes a number of graphs and stuff in which it's starting to compare countries that are using hydroxychloroquine with countries that are comparable in some way but are not.

00:58:55.980 Now, here's the part I need to fact check on.

00:58:59.020 If you were to believe the charts coming from this Twitter account, and they're public, so I suppose you could check the math,

00:59:08.740 they allege that they can show, say, the curve in Ireland where they're not using hydroxychloroquine versus the curve in Morocco, for example,

00:59:18.160 in which they are, and the Morocco number shows a drop exactly where you'd expect the drop in severity at the time they introduced the drug, you know, a few weeks after that.

00:59:29.920 So, I got my questions about whether this account is real or not.

00:59:37.900 So, if anybody can look at any of those graphs and tell me if they passed the sniff test,

00:59:43.120 because there might be some context left down or something.

00:59:48.000 Elon Musk's getting in trouble because there's an old tweet of his back in April, I guess, maybe early April or March.

00:59:56.080 He, I'm not sure when he said it, but early on, he said, based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in the U.S. by end of April.

01:00:07.180 And that prediction is not coming true.

01:00:09.880 But I would like to reiterate, I don't think we can blame people for making bad predictions based on bad data.

01:00:20.820 You know, I just don't think we should go back and start slaying people for that.

01:00:27.520 It just wouldn't work.

01:00:29.300 All right, here's my whiteboard presentation.

01:00:32.040 I'll make it quick, and this will blow your mind.

01:00:35.640 All right, this is what we're looking to do.

01:00:37.220 This is not drawn to scale, right?

01:00:39.880 So the deaths were going to go up in the United States, and they would have kept going up except for the mitigation, we say.

01:00:49.640 That should flatten it.

01:00:51.380 Some people say it's not because of the social distancing.

01:00:54.920 Maybe it just would have done that on its own.

01:00:56.840 I don't think that's supportable, but that's what people say.

01:00:59.160 And then at some point, I don't know when, maybe 21 or something, it's supposed to drift down towards zero.

01:01:08.560 Now, that's our plan, right?

01:01:11.180 Wouldn't you say, wouldn't you say that this represents our plan?

01:01:17.980 Except, how does that happen?

01:01:22.060 Now, you're saying to yourself, oh, Scott, that happens because of the herd immunity.

01:01:26.500 To which I say, no, it doesn't, not really, because if you get all the way to 2021, you're going to have hundreds of thousands of deaths before you get to herd immunity.

01:01:41.580 So you need somebody to answer this question.

01:01:45.840 What exactly would make that go down?

01:01:48.280 Because I've not heard anything in the plan that even proposes to do that.

01:01:53.880 I've not heard somebody say herd immunity would do it.

01:01:56.900 And there's even some question of whether it even, this one even has herd immunity.

01:02:01.320 I'll put the odds at 75% that there is such a thing.

01:02:05.880 This is before we get a vaccination, and most people won't have it anyway.

01:02:11.700 Therapeutics might be working, but which ones?

01:02:14.220 So here's my point, is that we have a plan in which the most important part of the plan, which is something we do here, that makes the virus trend towards zero, is unstated.

01:02:29.100 Is it not?

01:02:30.780 Now, people are saying, what about vaccines?

01:02:34.200 What about therapeutics?

01:02:36.360 And what about testing?

01:02:38.760 And what about vaccinations?

01:02:41.720 Those are all the right things to ask.

01:02:45.080 Is that our plan?

01:02:46.840 And the answer is, I don't think so.

01:02:49.520 So if you can get some expert to answer this question and say, okay, what exactly is driving it down?

01:02:57.860 Because at our current rate of testing, we'll never get there.

01:03:02.140 It looks like we're never going to be anywhere close to having enough tests.

01:03:07.020 Yeah, I don't think we'll ever get there.

01:03:09.140 And if we did get there, how often would you have to test each person?

01:03:12.840 I don't know.

01:03:13.680 So is the idea that we don't know exactly what will happen, but we think it's some combination of testing and herd immunity and social distancing, etc., therapeutics?

01:03:26.880 My only point is that there is an assumption in weather patterns, yeah, weather patterns too.

01:03:35.960 But Dr. Fauci is assuming that there's going to be a second bump.

01:03:40.940 So that tells you that it doesn't die in the summer.

01:03:45.220 And if it doesn't die in the summer, it just comes back in the winter.

01:03:51.600 No vaccine from your evil buddy Gates, says somebody.

01:03:57.200 You get a block for that.

01:03:58.600 Would never submit to a test, somebody says.

01:04:10.280 40% get flu vaccine.

01:04:12.180 How many will get COVID vaccine?

01:04:14.640 Good question.

01:04:15.640 All right, so I'll leave you with that thought.

01:04:17.600 The thought is that we have a plan that things will go down,

01:04:20.640 but I don't believe we have a plan that actually shows why it goes down.

01:04:27.760 It's just sort of a hope, I think.

01:04:29.440 All right.

01:04:30.440 Somebody says mutations weaken it.

01:04:32.580 Maybe.

01:04:33.920 But I'd like to see that on the plan.

01:04:36.120 So I'd like our press to ask that question.

01:04:40.320 Now, don't assume that it can't happen,

01:04:43.200 because I think the odds of it happening are very high.

01:04:46.740 I think the odds of us getting on top of it are basically 100%.

01:04:49.740 It just depends how long it takes.

01:04:51.820 The only thing I'm adding is that I don't see a scenario

01:04:55.180 where the cost in lives is not in the few hundred thousand.

01:05:00.620 I guess that's all I'm adding to this.

01:05:02.200 We don't have a plan that would keep the deaths under 100,000.

01:05:07.620 We do have a plan that I think,

01:05:11.120 even if the plan goes according to the way we want it to,

01:05:14.280 I think the plan is to lose a few hundred thousand people.

01:05:17.800 But that's my question.

01:05:19.600 All right.

01:05:20.800 That's all for now.

01:05:21.620 I will talk to you tonight.

01:05:24.100 You know where.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 29, 2020

Episode 943 Scott Adams： Join the Best Coffee With Scott Adams of All Time. There Will Be Anger

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