Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 06, 2020


Episode 958 Scott Adams： Grab Your Beverage and Buckle Up


Episode Stats

Length

46 minutes

Words per Minute

149.23154

Word Count

6,991

Sentence Count

246

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary

Trump has a Dilbert solution to a problem that looks more like a cartoon than an existential threat, and it's funny in a very funny way. Scott Adams talks about the coronavirus pandemic, and why it's probably not as bad as you think.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.
00:00:15.420 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the most amazing and immense time of the day.
00:00:22.960 It's such a special time, you should have its own day.
00:00:26.880 And all you need to enjoy it to its maximum potential.
00:00:33.840 It's not very much, really. It doesn't take a lot.
00:00:37.300 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.
00:00:45.560 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.
00:00:48.500 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the damn pandemic.
00:00:55.260 It's called the Simultaneous Sip and it happens now.
00:00:59.500 Go.
00:01:04.480 You can feel those test kits being built even as we sip.
00:01:10.580 Well, let's talk about all the news.
00:01:16.580 I'm very amused in a Dilbert-like way.
00:01:21.380 Have you noticed that this whole coronavirus crisis can easily be understood through a Dilbert filter?
00:01:31.320 You know, the Dilbert filter is basically that everybody involved in any kind of a big organization is lying and incompetent.
00:01:40.340 It kind of explains everything we've seen, right?
00:01:44.720 Because all the experts are wrong.
00:01:48.060 Almost everything's been wrong.
00:01:49.780 And it's been this gigantic cluster that looks more like a Dilbert cartoon than like an existential threat.
00:02:02.460 I suppose it's both.
00:02:04.680 But here's the funny part in a Dilbert filter.
00:02:07.660 So the president apparently was flirting with the idea of disbanding the coronavirus task force.
00:02:16.960 Now, what did all of his critics say about that?
00:02:20.600 You fool.
00:02:22.080 It's too soon to disband the coronavirus task force.
00:02:26.820 Now, was he ever going to disband the task force?
00:02:32.620 Or was it maybe more of a case where those functions would be handled better by the states?
00:02:39.400 Of course, they would still be on the case.
00:02:41.900 They would still be the experts.
00:02:43.400 They still do interviews.
00:02:44.840 But maybe they don't have to meet together and give some kind of a daily update.
00:02:51.640 Because we're probably at that stage of the crisis where that's not so important anymore.
00:02:57.260 We have lots of sources to get the same information.
00:03:00.440 And frankly, the task force was giving us bad information half the time anyway.
00:03:04.680 So we're no information or they were not really telling us numbers in context.
00:03:09.500 So was it a mistake for the president to say,
00:03:13.640 maybe at the end of the day, we'll just wind this down?
00:03:17.260 I don't think so.
00:03:18.600 It's the most ordinary thing in the world to create something for a specific need.
00:03:24.720 And as you're getting close to the point where maybe some other function is more important,
00:03:29.800 you put those functions into other places, maybe the states.
00:03:36.140 But he got all this criticism.
00:03:37.720 So what he does, he solves it with a Dilbert solution, which is just funny.
00:03:45.420 Because it was a Dilbert criticism that people would act as though they thought disbanding this group
00:03:52.400 somehow made the, I don't know, the function go away.
00:03:56.660 Which, of course, I'm sure was never the point of it.
00:03:59.540 So now that Trump had, apparently he announced just moments ago
00:04:04.920 that he's going to keep the task force indefinitely,
00:04:10.640 except he's going to shift his focus to safely reopening the country.
00:04:15.980 In other words, he's just putting different words on it,
00:04:20.320 so it's harder to complain about.
00:04:21.820 Because what exactly does it mean to shift the focus of the task force?
00:04:28.820 I mean, are Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci going to say something about opening the economy?
00:04:35.340 I mean, what exactly would they do differently
00:04:37.800 under the context of indefinitely keeping the coronavirus task force open
00:04:43.940 versus just having Dr. Fauci still working?
00:04:50.440 It looks a lot the same, doesn't it?
00:04:53.280 Like, would he not answer a question if the task force had been disbanded?
00:04:59.620 Was Fauci just going to go home?
00:05:02.220 Was that ever the plan?
00:05:04.720 Did somebody think we couldn't ask him questions anymore
00:05:07.740 if the task force got disbanded?
00:05:10.320 The fact that Trump has found a Dilbert solution,
00:05:14.700 or whoever advised him,
00:05:16.720 a Dilbert solution to a Dilbert problem,
00:05:19.940 which is you just changed the name of it.
00:05:23.680 And the funny thing is, it'll probably work.
00:05:26.600 Like, that's what's so funny about it.
00:05:28.520 The complaint in the first place was just
00:05:30.560 people not understanding how organizations work,
00:05:33.700 and, you know, it's normal to distribute functions when it's that time.
00:05:37.600 And instead of, like, giving some kind of rational explanation like I did,
00:05:43.820 well, you know, it's time to move those functions
00:05:46.060 into the places they can be performed best,
00:05:49.220 you know, something like that,
00:05:50.580 which wouldn't work.
00:05:52.120 Nobody would buy the truth.
00:05:54.000 It just comes up with basically just refocusing.
00:06:01.060 I don't know.
00:06:01.880 It's funny to me.
00:06:02.740 So, Victor David Hanson had a great line.
00:06:12.500 I just like the way he put this.
00:06:13.980 It's not something you haven't thought of yourself,
00:06:16.620 but I like the way he put it.
00:06:18.940 He calls the experts the credentialed class.
00:06:22.740 And I thought, that is a really good way to put it,
00:06:26.000 the credentialed class.
00:06:27.760 And he says that the credentialed class has been wrong on masks,
00:06:33.720 antibody testing, and, quote, almost everything
00:06:36.380 when it comes down to predicting how the virus would affect the country.
00:06:41.560 Now, I've been saying things like this,
00:06:46.460 and people are pushing back.
00:06:49.380 Am I wrong to say that the experts have been more wrong than right?
00:06:53.320 I mean, they got the broad brush of it, right?
00:06:58.040 There's a virus.
00:06:59.840 It's novel.
00:07:01.600 It's dangerous.
00:07:03.140 A lot of people dying.
00:07:04.060 I mean, they got the big stuff, right?
00:07:06.300 But almost everything in the detail from masks,
00:07:09.900 from human-to-human transmission,
00:07:13.100 to what's the R on this?
00:07:15.140 How fast is this spreading?
00:07:16.840 Do antibodies work or not?
00:07:18.960 Do we have enough tests?
00:07:20.420 Can we get enough tests?
00:07:21.600 I mean, just right across the board,
00:07:26.920 just wrong on just about everything.
00:07:29.700 Now, I just had a hilarious private conversation with someone who's,
00:07:34.860 let's say, someone associated more with an anti-Trump side.
00:07:39.480 And his explanation for, you know,
00:07:43.880 sort of explaining away why the experts were wrong on so many things
00:07:48.620 is that that's how science works
00:07:50.720 and that, you know, you're always moving toward the truth.
00:07:55.120 And I'm thinking,
00:07:56.520 I don't think that's what's happening here.
00:07:59.620 You know, it's one thing to say science does a lot of testing
00:08:03.520 and they're refining their knowledge over time
00:08:06.240 and you're never quite done, you know,
00:08:08.600 moving toward better knowledge.
00:08:09.960 Okay, everybody gets that.
00:08:12.820 Everybody gets that.
00:08:14.920 But that's not what's happening when they told you
00:08:17.140 that it wasn't transmissible from person to person.
00:08:21.100 That's not what happened when they indicated
00:08:23.600 there was enough testing facilities, you know,
00:08:26.320 to test our way out.
00:08:28.500 There isn't.
00:08:29.940 That's not what happened when they said masks are more bad than good.
00:08:33.640 None of this has to do with the normal progression of science,
00:08:39.140 you know, testing and learning and correcting itself.
00:08:42.440 None of that was happening.
00:08:44.220 This was just gigantic lying and bullshitted and incompetence.
00:08:48.460 That's all it was.
00:08:49.960 It wasn't science, except in the general sense.
00:08:56.740 I ended up in a, you know,
00:09:00.140 I think you'll be amused by this.
00:09:03.640 I don't think it would be a surprise to you
00:09:06.340 to find out that sometimes I can be arrogant
00:09:10.240 or cocky.
00:09:14.220 I'm not sure there's a difference.
00:09:16.040 What's the difference between cocky and arrogant?
00:09:19.620 Are those the same?
00:09:22.960 I guess cocky would be not so much
00:09:25.780 thinking other people are wrong,
00:09:28.700 but arrogant would be
00:09:30.020 you think you're more right than other people.
00:09:32.460 So I guess it'd be a little different.
00:09:34.620 So I prefer to call myself cocky.
00:09:38.640 You might call it arrogant.
00:09:40.840 I will not debate the difference
00:09:43.800 because I like to think I have at least enough self-awareness
00:09:48.880 to know I can be cocky.
00:09:52.700 But, but, but, but it's also based on the fact that I've been right.
00:10:01.900 You know, I'm not cocky without purpose,
00:10:04.660 not without evidence.
00:10:05.880 For example, I don't believe I can play in the NBA.
00:10:11.880 Right?
00:10:13.040 I don't, I don't, because if I, if I just had some weird belief about my powers,
00:10:17.960 I would have crazy thoughts about what I could do.
00:10:21.020 Oh yeah, I could play in the NBA.
00:10:23.340 No problem.
00:10:25.420 But I only make a very limited claim.
00:10:28.560 Very limited claim.
00:10:30.140 This is very limited.
00:10:31.320 that I have a special experience
00:10:34.980 that I didn't put together intentionally,
00:10:38.040 just the, the life path I took
00:10:40.140 gives me special insight
00:10:42.680 on detecting bullshit.
00:10:45.240 Corporate bullshit, especially.
00:10:48.380 You know, organizational bullshit,
00:10:51.160 specifically.
00:10:52.780 Now, I base this claim
00:10:54.300 on being one of the foremost authors
00:10:57.300 of making fun of bullshit in big corporations.
00:11:01.540 Maybe the most foremost author
00:11:03.620 who has wrote the most
00:11:05.620 on the topic of bullshit from big organizations.
00:11:09.780 Who's done more of that than me
00:11:11.280 in the whole world?
00:11:13.280 Maybe, you know,
00:11:14.600 that doesn't make me an expert, of course.
00:11:16.140 It just means I've spent the most time in that domain
00:11:19.080 thinking about it, talking about it,
00:11:21.560 hearing about it, etc.
00:11:23.460 So, I'm pretty good at detecting bullshit.
00:11:26.080 And if you add on top of that
00:11:27.380 training and persuasion
00:11:29.040 and just being around
00:11:30.400 and, you know, having a breadth of experience,
00:11:34.200 it's the only thing I claim.
00:11:36.400 The only thing I claim
00:11:37.780 to be an unnatural ability,
00:11:40.720 meaning something that you can't all do just as well,
00:11:43.240 is detect bullshit.
00:11:46.200 And you've seen me do it in public
00:11:49.000 over and over again.
00:11:51.980 President Trump can't possibly win the election.
00:11:55.980 Bullshit.
00:11:58.780 There's a Cuban embassy problem.
00:12:01.360 There's a secret sonic weapon.
00:12:04.280 Bullshit.
00:12:04.800 ISIS has claimed responsibility
00:12:08.860 for the Vegas shooting.
00:12:12.220 Bullshit.
00:12:14.020 Masks don't work.
00:12:16.340 Bullshit.
00:12:19.860 So, I mean, you've been watching me.
00:12:22.900 You've watched me call bullshit a thousand times,
00:12:25.840 probably write 900 times.
00:12:28.360 I'm exaggerating, of course,
00:12:29.680 but it's what I do.
00:12:32.220 Calling bullshit on stuff.
00:12:34.040 So, here's the funny story.
00:12:35.840 Enough of this setup.
00:12:38.640 As people do,
00:12:39.840 I got myself into a conversation on Twitter
00:12:42.420 with somebody on the topic of the coronavirus.
00:12:47.320 Unbeknownst to me,
00:12:48.280 and here's the funny part,
00:12:50.140 he's a doctor.
00:12:52.840 All right, so here's the setup.
00:12:54.360 I got myself into a conversation
00:12:57.620 about who knows more
00:12:59.380 about this coronavirus situation
00:13:01.200 with a doctor.
00:13:03.860 But I didn't know he was a doctor.
00:13:06.160 I just knew he was a guy on Twitter,
00:13:08.640 and I was disagreeing with him.
00:13:10.400 So, how do you think that went?
00:13:13.360 Well, it turns out that this doctor
00:13:14.980 has two beliefs
00:13:15.980 that I think you should maybe look into.
00:13:21.020 One of those beliefs
00:13:22.180 is that it's possible
00:13:25.060 that we can test our way out of this.
00:13:27.520 That we'll just ramp up our testing really quick,
00:13:31.060 have enough testing stuff,
00:13:33.900 test, test, test, test,
00:13:35.820 contact tracing,
00:13:37.520 and once we get that all cranked up,
00:13:39.880 we can go back to work.
00:13:42.760 Nothing like that's happening.
00:13:45.500 There is nothing like that
00:13:47.340 even slightly happening in the world.
00:13:49.780 The number of tests we would need
00:13:52.460 to test ourselves to safety,
00:13:55.280 to really be able to test
00:13:56.340 all the stuff we want to test,
00:13:57.880 we're not even close.
00:13:59.940 Nor is there any expert
00:14:01.460 who will tell you
00:14:02.380 that we could be close
00:14:04.420 in the coming months.
00:14:06.260 We're not in the same universe
00:14:07.700 of being able to do that.
00:14:09.560 Everybody who tells you
00:14:10.780 that that's the strategy,
00:14:12.340 they're lying.
00:14:14.840 It's bullshit.
00:14:15.660 And by the way,
00:14:18.100 in all cases where I'm calling bullshit,
00:14:20.740 you just have to show me
00:14:22.080 the other case,
00:14:24.440 just show me the evidence
00:14:25.400 for the other side,
00:14:26.440 I probably would change my mind.
00:14:28.800 Because wouldn't I love to think
00:14:30.500 that we could test our way out of this?
00:14:33.040 If there's anything I want to be true,
00:14:35.700 I mean, I really, really want this to be true.
00:14:38.440 And I also believed it was true.
00:14:41.500 Only maybe, I don't know, a week ago?
00:14:45.020 If you had asked me,
00:14:46.120 I would have said,
00:14:46.780 yeah, this is the United States of America.
00:14:50.720 If anybody knows how to make a test,
00:14:54.340 we can make a lot of them.
00:14:56.300 And we can make them fast.
00:14:58.360 We're the United States.
00:15:00.500 And then I learned
00:15:01.240 that there are all kinds of different tests
00:15:02.980 and companies and hundreds of them
00:15:04.620 and nobody's in control.
00:15:05.820 And if you were to add up
00:15:08.580 the ones that we know can be made,
00:15:11.160 it doesn't come close.
00:15:12.980 S. Bill Gates, he made the same point.
00:15:15.300 So in order to prove me wrong,
00:15:18.420 to prove that we can ramp up
00:15:20.480 to the number of tests we need
00:15:22.740 to, let's say, have something done
00:15:24.640 in, say, a month or so,
00:15:26.680 you know, to ramp up during May, let's say,
00:15:29.080 if there's anybody who believes
00:15:30.780 that's a thing,
00:15:31.820 please send me the link.
00:15:34.960 I'll tweet it out.
00:15:36.500 If it looks even a little bit credible,
00:15:39.500 I'll take that story forward.
00:15:42.720 But, good luck with that.
00:15:45.820 You're not going to find
00:15:46.960 these two numbers
00:15:48.540 that at least are compatible
00:15:50.600 with each other.
00:15:51.820 Find me the number of tests
00:15:53.560 that need to be made per day
00:15:55.360 in order to be able to test our way out.
00:15:59.160 What is that number?
00:16:00.060 Go research that.
00:16:02.120 Then figure out if you can find,
00:16:03.940 and I don't think you'll be able
00:16:04.880 to find this,
00:16:05.720 the total number of tests
00:16:07.260 of the right kind.
00:16:09.660 That's the other trick
00:16:10.640 because there are different tests.
00:16:12.640 The tests that you have to wait
00:16:13.760 three days for a result,
00:16:16.120 as Bill Gates points out,
00:16:17.820 what the hell good are they?
00:16:20.000 Because those three days,
00:16:21.280 you've spread it around
00:16:22.980 while you're waiting for the result,
00:16:24.520 et cetera.
00:16:25.640 So you have to figure out,
00:16:26.840 it has to be the right kind of test,
00:16:28.280 sort of the five-minute test
00:16:30.600 to really get any kind of a foothold.
00:16:34.320 So how many of those
00:16:35.420 five-minute or so or less
00:16:38.000 tests are we going to crank up
00:16:40.160 in the month of May?
00:16:41.160 Go research that.
00:16:42.640 How many would we need?
00:16:44.240 Let me do this visually for you.
00:16:46.880 This is my current understanding.
00:16:49.260 I want you to fix it
00:16:50.880 if I'm wrong.
00:16:52.100 I want to be wrong.
00:16:54.200 I mean, I really, really want to be wrong.
00:16:57.720 So please prove me wrong.
00:17:00.220 So my understanding is
00:17:01.360 the number of tests
00:17:02.200 we would need per day
00:17:03.220 is this big.
00:17:04.700 For those of you listening,
00:17:06.260 I'm holding my hands far apart.
00:17:08.820 My current understanding,
00:17:10.280 I hope it's wrong,
00:17:11.980 is that the number we will actually
00:17:13.760 reasonably be able to produce
00:17:15.900 in, say, the next month or two,
00:17:18.360 the period we're talking about,
00:17:20.080 in order to be ready
00:17:21.840 to go back to work
00:17:22.740 in more of a safe way.
00:17:24.780 If the universe we need
00:17:26.520 is my hands being held far apart,
00:17:29.920 the amount we can make
00:17:31.360 is something like the size of my fist.
00:17:34.960 Not close.
00:17:37.680 Not close.
00:17:40.440 All right?
00:17:41.060 And if anybody's telling you otherwise,
00:17:44.540 please tell me.
00:17:46.020 Because I've been waiting
00:17:46.980 for the crisis task force,
00:17:48.800 which is useless, largely,
00:17:51.480 in terms of information.
00:17:53.300 Because I don't think they know.
00:17:55.140 I don't think anybody knows.
00:17:56.640 Here's what I think.
00:17:57.600 Let me put the Dilber filter on this.
00:17:59.860 I believe there are 100 or more companies
00:18:01.940 involved in testing and creating tests.
00:18:04.720 I believe that the government
00:18:05.880 has talked to probably every one of them.
00:18:07.700 And I think the government has said,
00:18:10.080 can you tell us what you can do?
00:18:12.740 And maybe the government heard big numbers.
00:18:15.560 And, you know,
00:18:16.000 I don't know if they summed them all up,
00:18:17.520 but maybe they heard lots of claims.
00:18:19.820 Do you know what corporations claim
00:18:22.640 in situations like this,
00:18:24.940 where the person they're talking to
00:18:26.920 is going to write you a check
00:18:28.240 if you have any story at all?
00:18:31.160 Any story of plausibility,
00:18:33.360 and your customer is going to write you
00:18:35.420 a gigantic frickin' check
00:18:37.160 in an environment
00:18:38.460 in which making money is hard.
00:18:41.440 But you can get a big frickin' check
00:18:43.620 from the government
00:18:44.540 and all you have to do is lie.
00:18:47.620 All you have to do is say,
00:18:48.820 um, yeah, I think maybe in three weeks
00:18:52.260 we could make a million tests
00:18:54.420 if you would just write us a check.
00:18:57.180 Now, what happens in three weeks?
00:18:58.940 Do you think that company says,
00:19:00.280 here's your million tests,
00:19:01.400 just like I promised?
00:19:03.640 Or, or,
00:19:06.140 do you think this would be more like,
00:19:08.820 I need to curse.
00:19:12.440 Can I have permission to curse in the morning?
00:19:15.300 Is that okay?
00:19:17.200 Are your kids still asleep?
00:19:18.880 Probably kids are sleeping in, right?
00:19:21.880 I feel like just some situations,
00:19:25.600 they need a little cursing.
00:19:28.720 And maybe I can hold that back.
00:19:30.320 I'll try to just curse in the evening.
00:19:31.980 I think that'd be a better idea.
00:19:35.180 So, the point is that, um,
00:19:38.480 I'm almost certain
00:19:39.680 that if it's like every other situation
00:19:42.980 in the corporate world,
00:19:44.660 wait, back me up?
00:19:46.180 Oh, I'm getting a lot of approval for cursing.
00:19:50.260 Alright, let me give it to you
00:19:51.980 with full curse mode on.
00:19:54.900 Hide the kids, hide the kids.
00:19:57.220 You've been warned.
00:19:57.940 It goes like this.
00:20:00.680 If it's true that the government
00:20:02.180 talked to all these companies
00:20:03.420 that are going to make us all these test kits,
00:20:05.480 and all the companies said,
00:20:07.520 yeah, we'll get you these million test kits,
00:20:09.640 you know, in a few weeks,
00:20:10.920 we can do this.
00:20:13.280 Is that possible?
00:20:15.000 Maybe.
00:20:15.720 Could be.
00:20:16.140 Or, or,
00:20:19.880 could it be
00:20:20.880 that every one of these companies
00:20:22.760 that the government talked to
00:20:24.360 to get information,
00:20:26.340 could it be
00:20:27.020 that they're acting like
00:20:28.480 every other fucking time
00:20:30.480 they talk to anybody
00:20:31.520 in the whole fucking world?
00:20:33.120 And it goes like this.
00:20:34.480 Hey, vendor,
00:20:35.260 can you get me this in three weeks?
00:20:37.100 Yes, I can.
00:20:38.140 All you have to do is approve it
00:20:39.740 so that there's no turning back.
00:20:42.160 You've got to get
00:20:42.700 a little bit pregnant,
00:20:44.040 and then I'll definitely
00:20:45.060 get this to you in three weeks.
00:20:46.900 What?
00:20:47.260 Here's your check.
00:20:48.380 All right, we're starting.
00:20:49.780 We're going to build it.
00:20:50.960 We're going to have this in,
00:20:51.960 well, did I say three weeks?
00:20:53.680 We'll have this in four weeks.
00:20:55.700 You said three weeks.
00:20:57.220 Yeah, I know,
00:20:57.960 but we just found out
00:20:59.220 we've got this problem
00:21:00.540 with the factory.
00:21:02.420 It's not our fault,
00:21:03.520 but, you know,
00:21:04.000 four weeks, tops.
00:21:05.540 All right, four weeks.
00:21:06.620 And what's the vendor say?
00:21:08.540 Thank you.
00:21:09.400 I just needed
00:21:09.980 that little flexibility
00:21:10.960 because in four or five weeks,
00:21:12.460 what?
00:21:12.900 And you say,
00:21:13.600 four or five weeks?
00:21:14.880 What the fuck
00:21:15.620 are you talking about?
00:21:16.420 I just gave you a check
00:21:17.400 for three weeks.
00:21:18.660 You said you'd give this
00:21:19.640 to me in three weeks.
00:21:21.020 What's the vendor say?
00:21:22.360 Yeah, you know,
00:21:23.320 I really meant that,
00:21:24.620 but I was surprised
00:21:25.580 to find out
00:21:26.400 after we got your money
00:21:27.680 that there's this problem,
00:21:29.320 but we're totally working on it.
00:21:31.040 Five fucking weeks go by.
00:21:32.560 What happens?
00:21:33.760 Where's my goddamn
00:21:34.860 fucking product,
00:21:36.060 you goddamn asshole
00:21:37.580 fucking liar?
00:21:38.520 What does your vendor
00:21:39.720 say to you?
00:21:40.860 Almost there.
00:21:42.260 Almost there.
00:21:43.500 All we need
00:21:44.260 is for you to write
00:21:45.300 another check
00:21:46.220 because we're going
00:21:47.400 to need an upgrade
00:21:48.320 that we didn't know
00:21:50.260 we need when we first
00:21:51.580 analyzed this
00:21:52.320 because you didn't quite
00:21:53.100 give us the right data.
00:21:54.600 So it turns out
00:21:55.640 we'll need an extra server
00:21:57.340 so we can get this
00:21:59.060 to you in five weeks.
00:22:01.260 Tops.
00:22:02.040 We just need
00:22:02.640 this extra check.
00:22:03.780 Okay, you motherfucker.
00:22:05.460 You lied to me.
00:22:06.560 You lied to me.
00:22:07.300 You fucking lied to me,
00:22:08.600 but I'm stuck.
00:22:10.300 Now I have to give you
00:22:11.200 that goddamn fucking check
00:22:12.920 because I can't go back
00:22:14.780 and say let's start over.
00:22:16.020 I'm five weeks
00:22:16.740 into this motherfucker
00:22:17.720 and I can't change it
00:22:19.520 and I'm not going
00:22:20.040 to tell my boss
00:22:20.820 that I fucked up.
00:22:22.280 Right?
00:22:22.720 So you need to fix this.
00:22:24.400 Yes, yes.
00:22:25.840 Four or five weeks
00:22:26.940 we're going to have
00:22:27.500 this fixed
00:22:28.100 and once we get
00:22:29.160 that check
00:22:29.720 I think I can get
00:22:30.760 this to you
00:22:31.180 in two months.
00:22:31.920 Two months?
00:22:32.540 What the fuck
00:22:33.240 are you talking about?
00:22:34.060 You said three fucking weeks.
00:22:37.640 Now,
00:22:38.680 those of you
00:22:40.860 who have worked
00:22:41.460 for a big company
00:22:42.580 back me up
00:22:44.160 in the comments.
00:22:46.120 Did I not just describe
00:22:47.980 every fucking experience
00:22:50.160 you've ever had
00:22:51.200 with every fucking vendor
00:22:53.640 for anything
00:22:54.640 that's complicated?
00:22:56.280 You know,
00:22:56.540 if you're just buying
00:22:57.160 a simple product,
00:22:58.480 sure.
00:22:58.600 But if you're like
00:23:00.000 doing an installation,
00:23:01.960 you're replacing
00:23:03.240 a whole system,
00:23:05.120 tell me how that goes.
00:23:07.540 Every fucking time.
00:23:10.060 That's how it goes.
00:23:11.820 Not sometimes
00:23:12.820 it works out well.
00:23:14.520 Every fucking time
00:23:16.380 it goes the way
00:23:17.120 I just described.
00:23:18.540 Now,
00:23:18.840 multiply that
00:23:19.520 by a hundred
00:23:20.120 fucking lying corporations
00:23:21.780 who talk to our
00:23:23.200 dumbass
00:23:24.140 fucking gullible
00:23:25.420 government
00:23:26.020 who for some reason
00:23:27.580 may have believed
00:23:28.540 they're bullshit
00:23:29.340 and now they think
00:23:31.060 that we can make
00:23:31.700 test kits
00:23:32.340 like fucking magic
00:23:33.740 because we're going
00:23:34.380 to be shitting
00:23:34.960 them out of our asses
00:23:35.940 in three weeks
00:23:37.100 when nothing like that
00:23:38.340 has ever happened
00:23:39.100 in the fucking history
00:23:40.280 of this country
00:23:41.300 or the civilization
00:23:43.280 in general.
00:23:45.440 so if you'd like
00:23:48.580 you can believe
00:23:50.880 that this is the first time
00:23:53.660 in the history
00:23:54.240 of the world
00:23:54.920 corporations
00:23:56.440 have accurately
00:23:58.120 told the buyer
00:23:59.180 what they could deliver
00:24:01.140 before they got
00:24:02.960 their money.
00:24:04.800 It could be the first time
00:24:06.100 it's ever happened
00:24:06.920 in fucking
00:24:08.280 civilization
00:24:09.220 or maybe
00:24:12.380 you put the Dilber
00:24:13.560 filter on this
00:24:14.460 and say
00:24:14.900 we're not going
00:24:17.320 to test
00:24:17.800 our way
00:24:18.280 out of this
00:24:19.020 and the way
00:24:20.300 you know that
00:24:21.280 the way
00:24:22.360 you know it
00:24:23.240 is that the government
00:24:24.800 didn't even have
00:24:26.020 the balls
00:24:26.920 to put together
00:24:28.420 the estimate
00:24:29.100 for us
00:24:29.900 to say
00:24:30.400 this is how many
00:24:31.720 we need
00:24:32.360 and we're a little
00:24:33.540 embarrassed
00:24:34.120 that we believe it
00:24:35.180 but this is how much
00:24:36.840 they say
00:24:37.320 they're going to make.
00:24:39.940 I don't even know
00:24:41.000 if I want to put
00:24:41.640 that on paper
00:24:42.400 because
00:24:43.520 I don't think
00:24:45.620 it's true.
00:24:47.320 So if you can't
00:24:48.500 even get to the point
00:24:49.300 where the government
00:24:50.000 will lie to you
00:24:51.180 and say
00:24:51.540 we asked them
00:24:52.180 it looks like
00:24:52.760 we got plenty
00:24:53.740 they're going to have
00:24:54.860 this in three weeks
00:24:55.820 if they're not even
00:24:57.120 willing to lie
00:24:58.000 to you about it
00:24:58.740 it's not happening.
00:25:01.680 Same with the vaccines
00:25:02.760 the vaccine story
00:25:03.660 is just complete bullshit.
00:25:05.440 The other thing
00:25:06.260 that this doctor
00:25:07.040 that I found myself
00:25:08.720 talking to
00:25:09.840 on Twitter
00:25:11.020 he made the mistake
00:25:12.460 of questioning
00:25:13.940 my credentials
00:25:14.820 and it's always
00:25:18.100 the same problem
00:25:18.860 the medical people
00:25:20.180 will question
00:25:21.620 my credentials
00:25:22.440 and then I have
00:25:23.480 to correct them
00:25:24.120 and say
00:25:24.360 oh
00:25:24.620 I'm sorry
00:25:26.000 did it seem
00:25:27.240 as though
00:25:27.620 I was offering
00:25:28.520 a medical opinion?
00:25:31.160 No
00:25:31.680 no
00:25:32.400 I'm no expert
00:25:33.240 on medical stuff
00:25:34.400 I'm not going
00:25:35.520 to offer
00:25:35.880 a medical opinion
00:25:37.260 but if you want
00:25:38.660 to know
00:25:38.920 what is bullshit
00:25:39.940 you want
00:25:41.560 to come to me
00:25:42.340 I will spot
00:25:44.180 your bullshit
00:25:45.000 faster than
00:25:46.440 just about anybody
00:25:47.760 am I cocky?
00:25:48.780 yeah
00:25:49.000 yeah I'm cocky
00:25:50.300 about that
00:25:50.960 because I'm good at it
00:25:52.920 I'm not cocky
00:25:54.140 at things I'm bad at
00:25:55.040 that would just be crazy
00:25:56.000 but I'm good at that
00:25:57.800 so yeah
00:25:59.520 come to me
00:26:00.120 when you want
00:26:00.520 to find out
00:26:00.920 what is bullshit
00:26:01.520 so the other thing
00:26:02.640 that this doctor
00:26:03.320 believed
00:26:03.860 is that we could
00:26:04.980 eradicate the virus
00:26:06.240 what?
00:26:11.340 how could you
00:26:12.160 be paying attention
00:26:13.080 to this whole
00:26:14.240 coronavirus thing
00:26:15.260 and think that
00:26:15.880 we could eradicate it?
00:26:17.820 nobody thinks that
00:26:19.000 is there any expert
00:26:20.760 that thinks
00:26:21.200 we could eradicate
00:26:21.920 the virus?
00:26:22.980 so I'm talking
00:26:23.480 to a guy
00:26:23.940 who thinks
00:26:24.400 I'm stupid
00:26:25.160 because I don't
00:26:26.520 have enough
00:26:26.940 medical information
00:26:28.060 and he's the smart one
00:26:30.960 and he thinks
00:26:31.460 we're going to
00:26:31.900 test our way
00:26:32.620 out of it
00:26:33.080 because the corporation
00:26:34.340 said we could
00:26:35.280 okay
00:26:36.980 and that the virus
00:26:39.920 could be eradicated
00:26:40.880 okay
00:26:42.280 says
00:26:43.840 nobody
00:26:45.100 but
00:26:47.000 and then he pointed out
00:26:48.420 I have a credential
00:26:49.200 problem
00:26:49.740 oh what's the world
00:26:52.180 coming to?
00:26:52.900 alright
00:26:53.060 speaking of credentials
00:26:55.560 I only mention this
00:26:58.880 because of the credentials
00:26:59.940 of the person saying it
00:27:01.600 so this is a professor
00:27:03.700 of practice
00:27:04.380 at Harvard
00:27:05.000 and he teaches economics
00:27:07.060 alright
00:27:08.320 and he's a senior fellow
00:27:09.820 so
00:27:10.940 you put all that together
00:27:12.920 he's a smart guy
00:27:14.820 alright
00:27:15.520 now what does he say
00:27:17.220 when he looks at the
00:27:19.340 coronavirus prediction models
00:27:21.860 what does someone
00:27:23.720 who's a Harvard
00:27:25.240 econ professor
00:27:26.320 and a senior fellow
00:27:28.340 clearly very qualified
00:27:30.440 and based on his comments
00:27:31.880 you can tell
00:27:32.340 he's deeply qualified
00:27:33.700 what does he say
00:27:34.760 about the
00:27:35.120 about the prediction models?
00:27:39.320 well
00:27:39.800 he uses
00:27:40.780 big words
00:27:41.580 but
00:27:41.860 here's one of the things
00:27:43.660 he says
00:27:44.000 he says a lot
00:27:44.720 but here's one of the things
00:27:45.500 he says
00:27:46.440 the cubic fit
00:27:47.640 which is the method
00:27:48.880 that I guess they're using
00:27:50.000 is based on
00:27:51.400 an approach
00:27:51.860 to epidemiology
00:27:53.340 that has long
00:27:54.420 been absent
00:27:55.140 from any serious
00:27:56.500 epidemiological
00:27:58.640 discussions
00:27:59.840 it made terrible
00:28:01.600 predictions
00:28:02.140 back in March
00:28:03.000 and April
00:28:03.460 the functional form
00:28:04.960 was chosen
00:28:05.560 to get the result
00:28:06.580 they wanted
00:28:07.220 so
00:28:08.300 there's an expert
00:28:09.340 on models
00:28:10.100 who's telling you
00:28:11.540 exactly what I told you
00:28:13.140 but
00:28:13.440 smarter
00:28:14.100 which is that
00:28:15.720 models are
00:28:16.560 sort of about
00:28:18.580 manipulating
00:28:20.700 perception
00:28:21.560 you know
00:28:22.540 they can do a little bit
00:28:23.520 in terms of
00:28:24.100 bounding things
00:28:25.140 but
00:28:26.240 but if they
00:28:27.040 if they try to use them
00:28:28.280 to convince you
00:28:28.920 there's something specific
00:28:30.060 going to happen
00:28:30.640 like
00:28:30.980 we're going to follow
00:28:32.040 this curve
00:28:32.760 they're not on such
00:28:35.920 solid scientific ground
00:28:37.420 says this
00:28:39.260 Harvard expert
00:28:40.240 and I believe him
00:28:41.720 all right
00:28:42.780 oh by the way
00:28:47.840 by the way
00:28:51.320 so
00:28:52.500 most of you know
00:28:53.760 I've started moving
00:28:55.060 some content
00:28:56.160 I'm not going to be
00:28:57.080 moving these periscopes
00:28:58.240 you'll still be able
00:28:59.020 to see these
00:28:59.580 but in addition
00:29:00.440 if you wanted to see them
00:29:02.340 on the locals
00:29:03.160 platform
00:29:04.000 locals
00:29:04.860 with an s
00:29:05.720 dot com
00:29:06.660 I'm putting some
00:29:08.280 special content
00:29:09.260 on there
00:29:09.760 so that people
00:29:10.360 who subscribe
00:29:11.000 there will get
00:29:11.720 extra stuff
00:29:12.980 and just letting you know
00:29:14.780 if you subscribe there
00:29:15.880 you can see my
00:29:17.360 micro tutorial
00:29:18.920 on personal finance
00:29:20.780 so if you're somebody
00:29:22.220 who doesn't know
00:29:22.720 anything about
00:29:23.420 personal finance
00:29:24.380 and it's just a few
00:29:25.920 minutes
00:29:26.340 to get you started
00:29:27.820 so what I'll be doing
00:29:28.840 is putting lots of
00:29:29.580 little micro lessons
00:29:31.260 just a few minutes
00:29:32.540 on topics
00:29:33.760 for people
00:29:34.340 who just
00:29:34.700 just need to get
00:29:35.600 a
00:29:35.820 some traction
00:29:36.980 on a topic
00:29:37.680 and then they can
00:29:38.380 you know
00:29:38.680 google it
00:29:39.180 research it
00:29:39.880 but I'll get you going
00:29:41.000 in 10 minutes
00:29:41.840 on a bunch of topics
00:29:42.700 so personal finance
00:29:44.060 is the second one
00:29:44.900 the one that was
00:29:45.700 already up there
00:29:46.320 is how to write
00:29:47.760 humor
00:29:48.360 so those are two
00:29:49.900 I'm going to try
00:29:50.880 to do one a week
00:29:51.740 we'll see how that goes
00:29:53.540 so you can see
00:30:00.460 this forming
00:30:01.380 and it's already started
00:30:02.480 so here's a tweet
00:30:04.100 that I said
00:30:05.060 that's based on the fact
00:30:07.140 that once you realize
00:30:08.840 that the whole testing
00:30:09.780 story is a fraud
00:30:10.900 that that's never
00:30:12.160 going to get us
00:30:12.700 where we need to be
00:30:13.520 and that there's
00:30:14.900 no other plan
00:30:15.700 there's nothing else
00:30:17.900 in terms of a plan
00:30:20.340 or a technology
00:30:21.720 or a solution
00:30:22.680 or anything
00:30:23.120 that would get us
00:30:24.500 back to work
00:30:25.120 more safely
00:30:25.860 than just
00:30:27.060 sort of going back
00:30:28.320 to work
00:30:28.740 and trying to
00:30:29.500 you know
00:30:30.020 do it as cautiously
00:30:31.240 as possible
00:30:31.840 and
00:30:32.920 given that that's
00:30:34.780 the case
00:30:35.320 that we don't
00:30:37.000 have an option
00:30:37.960 where people don't
00:30:38.840 die
00:30:39.140 so the not having
00:30:40.600 an option part
00:30:41.220 is the key here
00:30:42.040 so remember
00:30:42.620 there is no option
00:30:44.360 there's nobody
00:30:45.760 smart
00:30:46.260 who can say
00:30:47.520 oh yeah
00:30:48.020 why don't we do this
00:30:49.320 this doesn't exist
00:30:50.900 there's nobody smart
00:30:52.520 offering an option
00:30:53.520 if you don't know that
00:30:54.560 you're missing the most
00:30:55.700 important part of the story
00:30:56.820 because you think
00:30:58.120 they are
00:30:58.780 because you're thinking
00:31:00.320 yeah there's an option
00:31:01.240 we get better testing
00:31:02.720 no that's not a thing
00:31:03.640 that's a fraud
00:31:04.840 you're not going to get
00:31:06.160 better testing
00:31:06.840 in at least
00:31:07.960 within the next
00:31:08.560 several months
00:31:09.160 so I wrote this tweet
00:31:13.140 which is just
00:31:13.800 a realistic assessment
00:31:15.360 of the fact
00:31:17.120 that
00:31:17.500 we don't have options
00:31:18.920 okay
00:31:19.960 so no options
00:31:21.260 here's what I said
00:31:22.160 I once demanded
00:31:23.700 people give me
00:31:24.360 their acceptable
00:31:25.100 death count
00:31:25.820 to go back to work
00:31:27.100 in order to be deemed
00:31:28.900 credible in the conversation
00:31:30.400 that makes sense
00:31:31.180 right
00:31:31.420 if people are going
00:31:32.960 to die either way
00:31:33.880 a serious person
00:31:35.480 is going to say
00:31:35.980 well I choose this path
00:31:37.340 because there will be
00:31:38.820 fewer deaths
00:31:39.720 than the other path
00:31:40.660 but you have to say
00:31:41.940 they're deaths
00:31:42.500 otherwise you're not
00:31:43.620 part of the conversation
00:31:44.540 and then I said
00:31:46.540 I updated that
00:31:47.280 and I said
00:31:48.000 today I see no option
00:31:49.340 but to accept
00:31:50.780 the death toll
00:31:51.680 whatever
00:31:52.660 and
00:31:54.320 that comes from opening
00:31:56.260 because it is
00:31:56.860 what it is
00:31:57.460 so the death toll
00:31:58.880 is just going to be
00:31:59.880 what it is
00:32:01.480 if we had an option
00:32:03.220 to make it
00:32:03.860 something different
00:32:05.020 then we should
00:32:06.240 talk about that
00:32:07.100 but nobody's
00:32:08.740 offered an option
00:32:09.480 the only option
00:32:11.220 we've talked
00:32:12.040 we've heard about
00:32:12.700 are these fake ones
00:32:13.860 like
00:32:14.280 let's think
00:32:15.660 how about if
00:32:16.780 magic happens
00:32:17.880 and then we all
00:32:18.580 have enough tests
00:32:19.260 hey that's an idea
00:32:20.220 let's use magic
00:32:21.420 to make enough tests
00:32:23.160 appear really quickly
00:32:24.060 then we'll test
00:32:25.300 everybody
00:32:25.720 and we'll go back
00:32:27.080 to work
00:32:27.380 that's way better
00:32:28.180 than your plan
00:32:28.840 Scott
00:32:29.260 of just going back
00:32:30.080 to work
00:32:30.620 well it is better
00:32:32.580 than my plan
00:32:33.380 if magic was real
00:32:36.120 but it isn't
00:32:38.340 so we're not going
00:32:39.500 to use magic
00:32:40.120 to create tests
00:32:41.600 that don't exist
00:32:42.400 and can't exist
00:32:43.340 before the economy
00:32:44.580 is destroyed
00:32:45.600 so my take on this
00:32:47.940 is that there's
00:32:48.480 some point
00:32:49.060 at which the economy
00:32:50.380 has gone too far
00:32:51.900 meaning that you can't
00:32:53.080 claw your way back
00:32:53.920 to something good
00:32:54.740 that would be
00:32:56.020 catastrophic
00:32:56.720 we don't know
00:32:57.960 where that point is
00:32:59.100 I suspect that we can
00:33:00.980 go another three weeks
00:33:02.260 in California
00:33:03.000 as long as other states
00:33:05.120 that are in better shape
00:33:06.200 or whatever
00:33:06.660 are beginning to open up
00:33:08.560 sooner
00:33:08.920 I think California
00:33:10.780 could wait
00:33:11.380 you know
00:33:12.440 I don't think
00:33:13.260 we'll go
00:33:13.860 I don't think
00:33:15.020 it becomes a permanent
00:33:16.000 problem in three weeks
00:33:17.300 but I wouldn't say
00:33:19.360 that about six weeks
00:33:20.560 meaning that
00:33:22.060 I don't think
00:33:22.600 anybody's smart enough
00:33:23.520 to know
00:33:24.020 where that
00:33:25.300 you know
00:33:25.740 that crossover point is
00:33:27.400 where you kill
00:33:28.000 more people
00:33:28.560 by killing the economy
00:33:30.400 nobody knows
00:33:31.440 where that is
00:33:32.100 but we do know
00:33:33.660 conceptually
00:33:34.760 that there's some point
00:33:36.000 where it happens
00:33:36.780 and some point
00:33:38.240 that's just too far
00:33:39.160 and I think
00:33:40.820 that you can sort of
00:33:41.920 feel that
00:33:42.860 more than you can
00:33:44.120 analyze it
00:33:44.940 and what I feel
00:33:46.960 and again
00:33:48.340 since we don't have
00:33:49.880 data to be
00:33:51.000 more important
00:33:51.760 or more reliable
00:33:53.200 than anybody's feeling
00:33:54.240 at this point
00:33:54.860 is that the risk
00:33:56.200 of taking this
00:33:57.140 too far
00:33:57.880 and having
00:33:59.000 not enough
00:33:59.600 left of the economy
00:34:00.580 to bring it back
00:34:01.500 is so big
00:34:02.960 that's such a big risk
00:34:04.500 that
00:34:05.540 you'd be better off
00:34:07.720 going a little bit early
00:34:08.780 and we don't have
00:34:10.980 an option
00:34:11.380 we have to go back
00:34:13.000 to work
00:34:13.520 it's only a question
00:34:14.920 of now
00:34:15.640 or wait a few weeks
00:34:16.680 but nothing's really
00:34:18.100 going to change
00:34:19.140 in a few weeks
00:34:19.940 if there was
00:34:21.060 something happening
00:34:21.880 that would change
00:34:23.460 our situation
00:34:24.200 in a few weeks
00:34:25.200 such as having
00:34:26.380 lots more tests
00:34:27.320 or at least enough
00:34:28.900 or a vaccine
00:34:30.160 or therapeutics
00:34:31.180 or something
00:34:31.620 I'd say wait
00:34:33.080 if we could
00:34:35.160 if there was something
00:34:35.860 to wait for
00:34:36.680 I'd say wait
00:34:38.160 which is also
00:34:38.800 why I say
00:34:39.520 it was exactly
00:34:41.280 the right decision
00:34:42.420 to close things down
00:34:43.740 for a while
00:34:44.580 so if the
00:34:46.140 entire close down
00:34:47.580 had been one month
00:34:49.240 I would have said
00:34:52.180 unambiguously
00:34:53.200 that was the right decision
00:34:54.640 because we needed
00:34:56.120 to find out
00:34:56.740 what's what
00:34:57.320 and one month
00:34:59.040 we can survive
00:34:59.960 it doesn't crush
00:35:01.560 the economy
00:35:02.060 one month
00:35:02.660 and I was saying
00:35:03.240 that
00:35:03.440 I was like
00:35:03.760 one month
00:35:05.360 we're going to
00:35:05.880 bounce back
00:35:06.360 from this
00:35:06.820 you know
00:35:07.300 six weeks
00:35:08.140 no problem
00:35:08.760 we're going to
00:35:09.280 bounce back
00:35:09.780 from six weeks
00:35:10.760 and we'll be back
00:35:12.060 by the end of the year
00:35:12.900 and then it turned
00:35:14.020 into
00:35:14.340 well it's not
00:35:14.980 six weeks
00:35:15.680 it's a lot longer
00:35:17.220 now there's nobody
00:35:19.600 who can tell you
00:35:20.280 what's too long
00:35:21.160 but six weeks
00:35:22.360 definitely would have
00:35:23.300 been short enough
00:35:24.860 that we would have
00:35:25.540 bounced back
00:35:26.220 I say that with
00:35:27.580 very high confidence
00:35:28.800 three months
00:35:30.880 I don't know
00:35:32.560 I don't know
00:35:34.200 maybe
00:35:34.880 maybe not
00:35:35.800 but I don't have
00:35:36.420 confidence
00:35:37.100 that three months
00:35:38.020 is
00:35:38.300 we're still going
00:35:40.080 to get back
00:35:40.520 from that
00:35:40.900 so
00:35:44.600 let's see
00:35:46.020 apparently
00:35:50.740 airlines
00:35:51.540 are looking
00:35:53.740 at options
00:35:54.360 for not
00:35:55.060 occupying
00:35:55.700 the center
00:35:56.360 seating
00:35:56.980 so there's
00:35:58.700 I guess
00:35:59.360 Frontier
00:36:00.180 Airlines
00:36:01.440 said that
00:36:02.540 you could
00:36:03.360 actually pay
00:36:03.940 extra
00:36:04.360 to keep
00:36:04.760 the seat
00:36:05.100 next to you
00:36:05.600 open
00:36:05.900 so if
00:36:07.680 you want
00:36:07.900 to pay
00:36:08.120 extra
00:36:08.540 there's
00:36:09.900 nobody
00:36:10.180 in the
00:36:10.480 middle
00:36:10.660 seat
00:36:11.040 now I
00:36:11.760 don't know
00:36:12.040 how that
00:36:12.320 works
00:36:12.700 because if
00:36:13.260 I pay
00:36:13.780 extra
00:36:14.220 the person
00:36:15.440 on the
00:36:15.760 other side
00:36:16.380 you know
00:36:16.740 the other
00:36:17.280 side
00:36:17.600 of the
00:36:17.800 middle
00:36:17.980 seat
00:36:18.360 do they
00:36:19.200 get a
00:36:19.620 they get
00:36:20.520 it for
00:36:20.740 free
00:36:21.100 I mean
00:36:22.440 is that
00:36:23.040 fair
00:36:23.340 and then
00:36:24.960 apparently
00:36:25.240 other airlines
00:36:26.020 are just
00:36:27.160 without extra
00:36:28.100 charge
00:36:28.620 are getting
00:36:29.060 rid of
00:36:29.460 these center
00:36:30.100 seats
00:36:30.560 and I guess
00:36:31.240 they're all
00:36:31.620 requiring
00:36:32.140 that you wear
00:36:32.680 masks
00:36:33.240 now
00:36:33.520 and I'm
00:36:34.420 thinking to
00:36:34.860 myself
00:36:35.220 if the
00:36:35.920 only thing
00:36:36.380 that came
00:36:36.760 out of
00:36:37.040 this
00:36:37.300 is that
00:36:38.480 people
00:36:38.780 could
00:36:39.040 pay
00:36:39.280 extra
00:36:39.800 to have
00:36:40.960 a seat
00:36:41.300 with nobody
00:36:41.860 in the
00:36:42.320 middle
00:36:42.520 seat
00:36:42.900 that would
00:36:44.420 be huge
00:36:45.180 do you
00:36:46.700 know
00:36:47.000 one of the
00:36:48.100 advantages
00:36:48.500 of being
00:36:49.120 my size
00:36:49.980 physically
00:36:50.600 is that
00:36:52.160 if I'm
00:36:53.400 flying in
00:36:54.100 coach
00:36:54.520 and there's
00:36:55.660 nobody in
00:36:56.120 the seat
00:36:56.400 next to
00:36:56.800 me
00:36:56.960 it's not
00:36:58.180 a lot
00:36:58.420 different
00:36:58.740 than
00:36:58.900 first
00:36:59.180 class
00:36:59.680 because
00:37:01.080 I'm
00:37:01.340 not so
00:37:01.720 big
00:37:02.080 that the
00:37:02.640 bigger
00:37:02.860 seat
00:37:03.160 makes that
00:37:03.600 much of
00:37:03.920 a difference
00:37:04.320 to me
00:37:04.660 I can
00:37:05.400 fit in
00:37:05.820 a regular
00:37:06.160 seat
00:37:06.420 just fine
00:37:06.960 so if
00:37:08.560 you give
00:37:08.860 me the
00:37:09.180 option
00:37:09.540 of flying
00:37:10.440 coach
00:37:11.020 with nobody
00:37:12.240 in the
00:37:12.520 seat next
00:37:12.940 to me
00:37:13.280 and I
00:37:13.500 have to
00:37:13.780 pay 20%
00:37:14.960 extra
00:37:15.320 there are a lot
00:37:16.620 of situations
00:37:17.300 where I'm going to
00:37:17.960 fly coach
00:37:18.640 where otherwise
00:37:19.960 I might use
00:37:20.720 my Dilbert money
00:37:21.960 to fly
00:37:23.360 first class
00:37:24.160 and it would be
00:37:25.560 sort of a waste
00:37:26.440 because it might be
00:37:27.160 a two hour flight
00:37:28.080 or something
00:37:28.520 but for a two hour
00:37:30.540 flight I'm not
00:37:31.220 going to fly
00:37:33.180 first class
00:37:33.840 even if I can
00:37:34.520 afford it
00:37:35.040 if I can have
00:37:35.640 nobody in the
00:37:36.220 middle seat
00:37:36.760 I'm not so
00:37:40.680 rich that I
00:37:41.160 throw money
00:37:41.700 away for no
00:37:42.260 reason
00:37:42.540 I'd like to
00:37:45.380 be that rich
00:37:45.900 but I don't
00:37:48.020 know if I
00:37:48.320 can ever feel
00:37:48.980 that
00:37:49.300 that I could
00:37:49.940 waste things
00:37:50.640 alright
00:37:51.360 so that's
00:37:53.540 where we're
00:37:53.840 at
00:37:54.040 if you take
00:37:54.640 the fact
00:37:55.020 that people
00:37:55.400 might be
00:37:55.880 willing to
00:37:56.580 pay a little
00:37:56.980 extra for the
00:37:57.640 middle seat
00:37:58.360 to be empty
00:37:58.960 put on top
00:38:00.220 of that
00:38:00.480 the fact
00:38:00.920 that
00:38:01.280 the fact
00:38:03.800 that
00:38:04.180 the fuel
00:38:05.900 cost
00:38:06.420 should be
00:38:07.040 coming down
00:38:07.580 a lot
00:38:08.240 for airlines
00:38:08.880 that's going
00:38:09.320 to be one
00:38:09.740 of their
00:38:09.960 biggest
00:38:10.280 costs
00:38:10.820 if not
00:38:11.200 the biggest
00:38:11.640 is fuel
00:38:12.740 the biggest
00:38:13.220 cost for
00:38:13.760 airlines
00:38:14.120 or is it
00:38:14.700 something else
00:38:16.220 it's up there
00:38:17.240 and then
00:38:19.620 add on top
00:38:20.460 of that
00:38:20.820 that probably
00:38:21.760 by year end
00:38:22.860 the resorts
00:38:24.600 are going to
00:38:25.060 be offering
00:38:25.600 amazing deals
00:38:27.040 because they
00:38:28.160 won't be
00:38:28.560 booked up
00:38:29.040 unless they
00:38:29.540 do
00:38:29.800 so I
00:38:31.420 would expect
00:38:32.060 that
00:38:32.640 here's
00:38:34.460 something I
00:38:35.100 totally agree
00:38:35.800 with Trump
00:38:36.240 on
00:38:36.500 that 2021
00:38:37.840 I think
00:38:38.620 2021
00:38:39.140 is going
00:38:39.720 to be
00:38:39.880 off the
00:38:40.320 hook
00:38:40.580 because
00:38:41.500 the people
00:38:42.760 who lost
00:38:43.400 work
00:38:44.100 were the
00:38:45.800 people who
00:38:46.300 were not
00:38:46.700 the big
00:38:47.240 buyers
00:38:47.820 to begin
00:38:48.320 with
00:38:48.580 they were
00:38:48.880 the people
00:38:49.220 who didn't
00:38:49.520 have much
00:38:49.920 money
00:38:50.220 they were
00:38:51.260 working the
00:38:51.780 kind of
00:38:52.160 job
00:38:52.620 where they
00:38:53.540 would lose
00:38:54.220 it
00:38:54.460 but they
00:38:55.600 weren't
00:38:55.880 driving
00:38:56.580 consumption
00:38:59.100 because they
00:38:59.920 were the
00:39:00.200 people who
00:39:00.520 didn't have
00:39:00.820 money
00:39:01.100 the people
00:39:02.000 who still
00:39:02.520 kept their
00:39:03.000 job
00:39:03.540 something like
00:39:05.040 70% of the
00:39:06.080 country
00:39:06.400 still got
00:39:07.540 their same
00:39:07.980 paycheck
00:39:08.460 and probably
00:39:09.980 they're the
00:39:10.720 people who
00:39:11.140 are making
00:39:11.560 more
00:39:12.020 than the
00:39:13.120 people who
00:39:13.500 lost their
00:39:13.920 jobs
00:39:14.260 so all
00:39:15.160 those people
00:39:15.600 who were
00:39:15.840 getting extra
00:39:16.620 just spent
00:39:17.760 months indoors
00:39:18.700 not spending
00:39:19.460 much money
00:39:20.040 I guarantee
00:39:22.300 you that
00:39:22.920 there are a
00:39:23.280 lot of
00:39:23.500 people very
00:39:24.140 quietly
00:39:24.720 who had
00:39:25.840 a really
00:39:26.180 good few
00:39:26.840 months
00:39:27.260 their
00:39:28.100 personal
00:39:28.600 expenses
00:39:29.120 dropped
00:39:29.680 to
00:39:29.980 practically
00:39:30.580 maybe
00:39:31.820 30%
00:39:33.240 of what
00:39:33.560 they could
00:39:33.880 have been
00:39:34.240 let's say
00:39:36.740 60% of
00:39:37.560 what they
00:39:37.820 could have
00:39:38.080 been
00:39:38.260 they probably
00:39:39.360 saved money
00:39:40.080 they're probably
00:39:41.980 at least half
00:39:42.800 of this
00:39:43.140 country
00:39:43.560 who saved
00:39:45.200 money
00:39:45.620 because they
00:39:47.480 still got
00:39:47.940 paid
00:39:48.260 and they
00:39:49.040 didn't have
00:39:49.340 anything to
00:39:49.740 spend it
00:39:50.060 on
00:39:50.240 so what
00:39:51.660 happens to
00:39:52.080 all those
00:39:52.400 people who
00:39:52.840 saved money
00:39:53.580 the people
00:39:54.480 who have
00:39:54.760 the money
00:39:55.140 when they're
00:39:56.620 free to go
00:39:57.200 spend it
00:39:57.640 again
00:39:57.920 look at all
00:39:59.120 the cars
00:39:59.760 that they
00:40:00.100 didn't buy
00:40:00.740 all the
00:40:01.200 trips they
00:40:01.740 didn't take
00:40:02.380 the clothes
00:40:03.320 they didn't
00:40:03.700 get
00:40:03.980 I mean
00:40:05.420 2021
00:40:06.620 is going
00:40:07.900 to be
00:40:08.140 off the
00:40:08.600 hook
00:40:08.940 just
00:40:10.380 if we
00:40:11.240 just go
00:40:11.600 back to
00:40:11.960 work
00:40:12.300 nothing
00:40:13.360 special
00:40:13.920 has to
00:40:14.320 happen
00:40:14.640 there is
00:40:15.600 so much
00:40:16.720 you know
00:40:17.660 untapped
00:40:18.440 buying
00:40:19.120 potential
00:40:19.840 it's going
00:40:20.620 to be
00:40:20.800 crazy
00:40:21.160 now
00:40:21.960 of course
00:40:22.860 people's
00:40:23.320 401k
00:40:24.000 their stocks
00:40:25.080 are lower
00:40:25.660 but as
00:40:26.900 of today
00:40:27.660 stocks
00:40:30.980 are having
00:40:31.460 well it looks
00:40:32.040 like it's
00:40:32.360 mixed
00:40:32.680 it was
00:40:32.940 better this
00:40:33.360 morning
00:40:33.680 a lot
00:40:34.540 of stocks
00:40:34.920 are having
00:40:35.240 a good
00:40:35.540 day
00:40:35.860 bitcoin's
00:40:37.020 up
00:40:37.280 bitcoin's
00:40:38.500 having a
00:40:38.780 good time
00:40:39.160 but
00:40:40.260 it seems
00:40:41.700 to me
00:40:42.000 that when
00:40:42.320 we get
00:40:42.680 to the
00:40:42.980 point
00:40:43.220 where the
00:40:43.540 economy
00:40:43.900 is
00:40:44.120 reopening
00:40:44.580 people
00:40:45.700 see that
00:40:46.280 bulge
00:40:46.900 of consumer
00:40:47.760 demand
00:40:48.460 this
00:40:48.780 coming
00:40:49.200 stock
00:40:50.340 market
00:40:50.680 in the
00:40:50.980 401k's
00:40:51.720 are going
00:40:51.940 to be
00:40:52.340 back
00:40:53.680 within
00:40:54.100 let's say
00:40:56.340 spinning
00:40:56.820 territory
00:40:57.300 of where
00:40:58.160 they were
00:40:58.600 and people
00:40:59.620 are going
00:40:59.840 to feel
00:41:00.100 fine
00:41:00.440 so
00:41:02.180 that's
00:41:04.940 the good
00:41:05.220 news
00:41:05.580 all right
00:41:06.900 somebody
00:41:08.740 saying
00:41:09.120 that they
00:41:09.480 saved a
00:41:09.960 ton
00:41:10.180 yeah
00:41:10.940 you know
00:41:11.500 this
00:41:13.340 coronavirus
00:41:13.780 thing
00:41:14.240 will
00:41:14.560 be
00:41:15.500 a big
00:41:16.820 hit
00:41:17.080 to me
00:41:17.780 because
00:41:18.420 I think
00:41:19.000 that my
00:41:19.340 main
00:41:19.620 source
00:41:19.960 of income
00:41:20.380 will
00:41:20.840 probably
00:41:21.500 shrink
00:41:21.900 75 to
00:41:23.400 90 percent
00:41:24.080 this year
00:41:24.540 because I
00:41:25.580 think the
00:41:25.860 small
00:41:26.080 newspapers
00:41:27.140 will just
00:41:27.780 go into
00:41:28.080 business
00:41:28.480 but
00:41:31.820 if my
00:41:33.560 income
00:41:33.980 stayed the
00:41:34.600 same
00:41:34.880 I would
00:41:35.740 have also
00:41:36.180 spent
00:41:36.740 much less
00:41:38.060 I'm not
00:41:38.920 doing
00:41:39.120 anything
00:41:39.460 so I
00:41:40.740 would have
00:41:41.120 come out
00:41:41.420 ahead but
00:41:41.940 I won't
00:41:42.620 be going
00:41:42.980 back to
00:41:43.520 a career
00:41:44.180 that I
00:41:44.720 used to
00:41:44.960 have
00:41:45.620 commercial
00:41:50.080 real estate
00:41:50.760 yeah
00:41:51.380 so somebody
00:41:52.760 saying commercial
00:41:53.460 real estate
00:41:54.000 might be
00:41:54.400 iffy
00:41:54.640 but here's
00:41:55.420 the thing
00:41:55.860 the people
00:41:57.740 who have
00:41:58.360 commercial
00:41:59.320 real estate
00:41:59.780 probably have
00:42:00.360 long term
00:42:01.240 mostly deals
00:42:03.440 so I don't
00:42:04.500 think commercial
00:42:05.220 real estate
00:42:05.700 is going to
00:42:06.060 crash right
00:42:06.820 away
00:42:07.140 I think
00:42:09.000 that's got
00:42:09.460 a little
00:42:09.820 bit of
00:42:10.120 padding
00:42:10.520 because people
00:42:11.420 are still
00:42:11.800 going to
00:42:11.980 have to
00:42:12.200 pay the
00:42:12.480 rent
00:42:12.760 even if
00:42:13.660 a lot
00:42:14.040 more
00:42:14.260 people
00:42:14.540 are
00:42:14.800 staying
00:42:15.320 home
00:42:15.580 for another
00:42:16.000 year or
00:42:16.960 two
00:42:17.180 isn't
00:42:19.480 stock
00:42:19.880 your main
00:42:20.320 source
00:42:20.660 of income
00:42:21.020 no
00:42:21.740 no it
00:42:23.360 is not
00:42:23.840 and nor
00:42:24.660 is it
00:42:25.080 even
00:42:25.420 close
00:42:26.080 anecdotally
00:42:31.020 it didn't
00:42:31.600 just hit
00:42:32.380 poor people
00:42:33.240 in my
00:42:33.860 sphere
00:42:34.180 no it
00:42:34.980 did not
00:42:35.500 just hit
00:42:36.260 poor people
00:42:36.800 but of
00:42:37.380 course they
00:42:37.760 got hit
00:42:38.120 the hardest
00:42:38.680 killed my
00:42:41.380 wife's
00:42:41.840 speaking
00:42:42.340 business
00:42:42.860 yeah
00:42:43.200 yeah
00:42:44.000 anything
00:42:44.380 with travel
00:42:45.180 or crowds
00:42:46.740 somebody
00:42:48.700 says take
00:42:49.240 the speaking
00:42:49.780 engagements
00:42:50.320 what speaking
00:42:51.020 engagements
00:42:51.700 what speaking
00:42:53.620 engagements
00:42:54.300 do you
00:42:55.340 think that
00:42:55.780 I get
00:42:56.080 speaking
00:42:56.580 engagements
00:42:57.100 now
00:42:57.500 now I'm
00:42:59.340 too
00:42:59.640 controversial
00:43:00.700 at this
00:43:01.140 point
00:43:01.400 so I'm
00:43:02.280 no longer
00:43:02.760 a good
00:43:04.420 speaker
00:43:05.080 for a
00:43:05.740 general
00:43:06.060 let's say
00:43:06.420 a corporation
00:43:07.260 event
00:43:07.740 or an
00:43:08.120 industry
00:43:08.500 event
00:43:08.900 because as
00:43:09.820 soon as
00:43:10.100 they book
00:43:10.460 me
00:43:10.620 because this
00:43:11.020 has happened
00:43:11.480 you know
00:43:11.940 I'm not
00:43:12.240 guessing
00:43:12.640 this has
00:43:13.120 happened
00:43:13.400 they'll
00:43:14.180 book me
00:43:14.680 and then
00:43:15.520 they'll tell
00:43:15.880 their members
00:43:16.360 hey we got
00:43:17.000 this Dilber
00:43:17.500 guy and
00:43:18.040 then somebody
00:43:18.480 in the
00:43:18.720 membership
00:43:19.060 will say
00:43:19.560 you know
00:43:22.260 that he
00:43:22.640 said good
00:43:23.120 things about
00:43:23.740 Trump
00:43:24.160 right
00:43:24.520 and then
00:43:26.000 the organizer
00:43:26.780 says I
00:43:28.140 didn't know
00:43:28.680 that
00:43:29.020 and then
00:43:30.060 they call
00:43:30.440 me and
00:43:30.760 say you
00:43:31.200 know
00:43:31.540 we lost
00:43:32.940 our budget
00:43:33.420 we can't
00:43:34.280 hire you
00:43:34.680 anymore
00:43:35.040 so I
00:43:35.720 mean I've
00:43:36.000 been through
00:43:36.380 this
00:43:36.760 so no
00:43:38.460 I can't
00:43:38.860 do speaking
00:43:39.360 that's not
00:43:40.020 on the table
00:43:40.440 nor can I
00:43:41.340 make a
00:43:41.660 Dilber movie
00:43:42.300 same reason
00:43:43.540 too much
00:43:45.120 you know
00:43:45.620 Hollywood
00:43:45.960 hatred
00:43:46.520 so most
00:43:49.040 lines of
00:43:50.160 my normal
00:43:51.120 business
00:43:51.520 have been
00:43:51.920 closed out
00:43:52.520 for me
00:43:52.880 for different
00:43:53.300 reasons
00:43:53.700 but
00:43:55.120 I will be
00:43:56.380 fine
00:43:56.860 don't worry
00:43:57.680 about it
00:43:58.660 somebody says
00:43:59.760 you make
00:44:00.120 tons on
00:44:00.760 books
00:44:01.160 that's not
00:44:01.880 true actually
00:44:02.420 so
00:44:03.100 the books
00:44:05.100 that I
00:44:05.620 write are
00:44:06.060 actually a
00:44:06.580 trivial part
00:44:07.240 of my
00:44:07.460 income
00:44:07.800 I think
00:44:09.260 even the
00:44:10.060 bestsellers
00:44:10.700 they're actually
00:44:11.660 kind of
00:44:12.020 trivial
00:44:12.380 most people
00:44:15.200 don't realize
00:44:15.740 that
00:44:16.000 the books
00:44:17.440 that make
00:44:17.820 money
00:44:18.160 are the
00:44:19.100 ones that
00:44:19.540 just are
00:44:20.040 just runaway
00:44:21.280 bestsellers
00:44:22.040 but they
00:44:23.120 make pretty
00:44:23.820 much all
00:44:24.260 of the
00:44:24.480 money
00:44:24.720 once you
00:44:26.100 get to
00:44:26.600 well you
00:44:27.220 were on
00:44:27.500 the bestseller
00:44:28.020 list for a
00:44:28.720 few weeks
00:44:29.240 you know
00:44:30.040 but at the
00:44:30.460 bottom
00:44:30.840 and they
00:44:31.700 fell off
00:44:32.260 after a
00:44:32.680 few weeks
00:44:33.160 if you're
00:44:34.280 that kind
00:44:34.740 of author
00:44:35.160 that's not
00:44:36.560 a lot of
00:44:36.820 money
00:44:37.040 and
00:44:38.220 my early
00:44:39.980 Dilbert books
00:44:41.080 were in
00:44:41.900 that other
00:44:42.660 category where
00:44:43.480 it's just
00:44:43.800 crazy money
00:44:44.580 but that
00:44:45.320 was like
00:44:45.620 20 years
00:44:46.180 ago
00:44:46.420 the
00:44:47.260 current
00:44:48.340 publishing
00:44:48.840 even though
00:44:49.560 I write
00:44:49.900 bestsellers
00:44:50.620 they don't
00:44:51.800 they don't
00:44:52.420 sit at the
00:44:53.080 top of the
00:44:53.460 bestseller list
00:44:54.220 for five
00:44:55.000 years
00:44:55.360 those make
00:44:55.920 money
00:44:56.180 but maybe
00:44:57.520 one percent
00:44:58.360 or something
00:44:59.740 of books
00:45:00.340 that get
00:45:00.580 published
00:45:00.960 are big
00:45:01.380 money makers
00:45:01.960 I'm probably
00:45:03.400 in the top
00:45:04.080 five percent
00:45:06.420 I'm just
00:45:08.140 guessing here
00:45:08.820 just off the
00:45:09.620 top of my
00:45:10.080 head
00:45:10.280 I would
00:45:11.140 say that
00:45:11.700 my books
00:45:12.160 sell in
00:45:12.660 the top
00:45:13.000 five percent
00:45:13.780 of books
00:45:14.480 fairly
00:45:15.880 dependably
00:45:16.480 but that's
00:45:17.900 not a lot
00:45:18.240 of money
00:45:18.560 in terms
00:45:21.160 of the
00:45:21.800 big picture
00:45:22.320 cartoon on
00:45:23.760 TV makes
00:45:24.640 no money
00:45:25.260 even though
00:45:26.280 it still
00:45:26.640 runs on
00:45:27.080 TV
00:45:27.380 because
00:45:27.980 Hollywood
00:45:28.780 makes a
00:45:29.300 deal
00:45:29.540 where after
00:45:30.660 a while
00:45:30.960 they keep
00:45:31.380 all the
00:45:31.640 money
00:45:31.860 so that's
00:45:32.320 where that's
00:45:32.860 at
00:45:33.100 anyway
00:45:34.620 just in case
00:45:35.640 you were
00:45:35.840 wondering
00:45:36.080 not that it
00:45:37.060 matters to
00:45:37.660 you
00:45:37.940 but I do
00:45:40.000 have options
00:45:40.480 so I'm not
00:45:40.920 complaining
00:45:41.400 if any of
00:45:43.040 this sounded
00:45:43.440 like a
00:45:43.920 complaint
00:45:44.440 let me
00:45:45.120 clarify
00:45:45.560 I am in
00:45:47.200 a much
00:45:47.660 better
00:45:47.940 situation
00:45:48.580 than 99
00:45:49.560 percent of
00:45:50.160 the world
00:45:50.500 I do not
00:45:51.860 lose sight
00:45:52.620 of that
00:45:53.080 so I'm
00:45:53.920 not going
00:45:54.200 to bitch
00:45:54.680 about
00:45:55.520 something
00:45:56.440 that happened
00:45:56.820 to me
00:45:57.240 when I'm
00:45:58.260 watching the
00:45:58.740 world melt
00:45:59.260 down
00:45:59.580 like that's
00:46:00.440 not where
00:46:00.800 I'm at
00:46:01.220 but it is
00:46:02.360 also just
00:46:02.900 true
00:46:03.300 that many
00:46:04.680 of us
00:46:05.020 will be
00:46:05.740 affected
00:46:06.120 in our
00:46:06.460 different ways
00:46:07.020 and it's
00:46:07.260 just a fact
00:46:07.820 alright
00:46:08.780 what's my
00:46:13.780 big overhead
00:46:14.480 oh
00:46:15.840 well
00:46:16.880 that's a
00:46:18.720 longer story
00:46:19.380 living is
00:46:21.180 expensive
00:46:21.660 but my
00:46:23.140 property tax
00:46:24.240 is probably
00:46:24.640 more than
00:46:25.440 my property
00:46:27.380 tax on my
00:46:27.980 house
00:46:28.320 now I'm not
00:46:29.240 going to say
00:46:29.520 this
00:46:29.780 sounds like
00:46:30.760 a dick
00:46:31.080 I'll talk
00:46:31.900 to you
00:46:32.300 tonight
00:46:32.780 man
00:46:33.220 I'
00:46:44.540 gegenüber
00:46:45.700 so
00:46:46.160 you
00:46:46.240 don't
00:46:46.400 see
00:46:47.020 at
00:46:48.480 here
00:46:48.840 you
00:46:49.100 have
00:46:49.460 on
00:46:49.860 my
00:46:50.720 family