Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 06, 2020


Episode 958 Scott Adams: Grab Your Beverage and Buckle Up


Episode Stats


Length

46 minutes

Words per minute

149.23154

Word count

6,991

Sentence count

246

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

11

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Trump has a Dilbert solution to a problem that looks more like a cartoon than an existential threat, and it's funny in a very funny way. Scott Adams talks about the coronavirus pandemic, and why it's probably not as bad as you think.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.
00:00:15.420 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the most amazing and immense time of the day.
00:00:22.960 It's such a special time, you should have its own day.
00:00:26.880 And all you need to enjoy it to its maximum potential.
00:00:33.840 It's not very much, really. It doesn't take a lot.
00:00:37.300 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.
00:00:45.560 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.
00:00:48.500 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the damn pandemic.
00:00:55.260 It's called the Simultaneous Sip and it happens now.
00:00:59.500 Go.
00:01:04.480 You can feel those test kits being built even as we sip.
00:01:10.580 Well, let's talk about all the news.
00:01:16.580 I'm very amused in a Dilbert-like way.
00:01:21.380 Have you noticed that this whole coronavirus crisis can easily be understood through a Dilbert filter?
00:01:31.320 You know, the Dilbert filter is basically that everybody involved in any kind of a big organization is lying and incompetent.
00:01:40.340 It kind of explains everything we've seen, right?
00:01:44.720 Because all the experts are wrong.
00:01:48.060 Almost everything's been wrong.
00:01:49.780 And it's been this gigantic cluster that looks more like a Dilbert cartoon than like an existential threat.
00:02:02.460 I suppose it's both.
00:02:04.680 But here's the funny part in a Dilbert filter.
00:02:07.660 So the president apparently was flirting with the idea of disbanding the coronavirus task force.
00:02:16.960 Now, what did all of his critics say about that?
00:02:20.600 You fool.
00:02:22.080 It's too soon to disband the coronavirus task force.
00:02:26.820 Now, was he ever going to disband the task force?
00:02:32.620 Or was it maybe more of a case where those functions would be handled better by the states?
00:02:39.400 Of course, they would still be on the case.
00:02:41.900 They would still be the experts.
00:02:43.400 They still do interviews.
00:02:44.840 But maybe they don't have to meet together and give some kind of a daily update.
00:02:51.640 Because we're probably at that stage of the crisis where that's not so important anymore.
00:02:57.260 We have lots of sources to get the same information.
00:03:00.440 And frankly, the task force was giving us bad information half the time anyway.
00:03:04.680 So we're no information or they were not really telling us numbers in context.
00:03:09.500 So was it a mistake for the president to say,
00:03:13.640 maybe at the end of the day, we'll just wind this down?
00:03:17.260 I don't think so.
00:03:18.600 It's the most ordinary thing in the world to create something for a specific need.
00:03:24.720 And as you're getting close to the point where maybe some other function is more important,
00:03:29.800 you put those functions into other places, maybe the states.
00:03:36.140 But he got all this criticism.
00:03:37.720 So what he does, he solves it with a Dilbert solution, which is just funny.
00:03:45.420 Because it was a Dilbert criticism that people would act as though they thought disbanding this group
00:03:52.400 somehow made the, I don't know, the function go away.
00:03:56.660 Which, of course, I'm sure was never the point of it.
00:03:59.540 So now that Trump had, apparently he announced just moments ago
00:04:04.920 that he's going to keep the task force indefinitely,
00:04:10.640 except he's going to shift his focus to safely reopening the country.
00:04:15.980 In other words, he's just putting different words on it,
00:04:20.320 so it's harder to complain about.
00:04:21.820 Because what exactly does it mean to shift the focus of the task force?
00:04:28.820 I mean, are Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci going to say something about opening the economy?
00:04:35.340 I mean, what exactly would they do differently
00:04:37.800 under the context of indefinitely keeping the coronavirus task force open
00:04:43.940 versus just having Dr. Fauci still working?
00:04:50.440 It looks a lot the same, doesn't it?
00:04:53.280 Like, would he not answer a question if the task force had been disbanded?
00:04:59.620 Was Fauci just going to go home?
00:05:02.220 Was that ever the plan?
00:05:04.720 Did somebody think we couldn't ask him questions anymore
00:05:07.740 if the task force got disbanded?
00:05:10.320 The fact that Trump has found a Dilbert solution,
00:05:14.700 or whoever advised him,
00:05:16.720 a Dilbert solution to a Dilbert problem,
00:05:19.940 which is you just changed the name of it.
00:05:23.680 And the funny thing is, it'll probably work.
00:05:26.600 Like, that's what's so funny about it.
00:05:28.520 The complaint in the first place was just
00:05:30.560 people not understanding how organizations work,
00:05:33.700 and, you know, it's normal to distribute functions when it's that time.
00:05:37.600 And instead of, like, giving some kind of rational explanation like I did,
00:05:43.820 well, you know, it's time to move those functions
00:05:46.060 into the places they can be performed best,
00:05:49.220 you know, something like that,
00:05:50.580 which wouldn't work.
00:05:52.120 Nobody would buy the truth.
00:05:54.000 It just comes up with basically just refocusing.
00:06:01.060 I don't know.
00:06:01.880 It's funny to me.
00:06:02.740 So, Victor David Hanson had a great line.
00:06:12.500 I just like the way he put this.
00:06:13.980 It's not something you haven't thought of yourself,
00:06:16.620 but I like the way he put it.
00:06:18.940 He calls the experts the credentialed class.
00:06:22.740 And I thought, that is a really good way to put it,
00:06:26.000 the credentialed class.
00:06:27.760 And he says that the credentialed class has been wrong on masks,
00:06:33.720 antibody testing, and, quote, almost everything
00:06:36.380 when it comes down to predicting how the virus would affect the country.
00:06:41.560 Now, I've been saying things like this,
00:06:46.460 and people are pushing back.
00:06:49.380 Am I wrong to say that the experts have been more wrong than right?
00:06:53.320 I mean, they got the broad brush of it, right?
00:06:58.040 There's a virus.
00:06:59.840 It's novel.
00:07:01.600 It's dangerous.
00:07:03.140 A lot of people dying.
00:07:04.060 I mean, they got the big stuff, right?
00:07:06.300 But almost everything in the detail from masks,
00:07:09.900 from human-to-human transmission,
00:07:13.100 to what's the R on this?
00:07:15.140 How fast is this spreading?
00:07:16.840 Do antibodies work or not?
00:07:18.960 Do we have enough tests?
00:07:20.420 Can we get enough tests?
00:07:21.600 I mean, just right across the board,
00:07:26.920 just wrong on just about everything.
00:07:29.700 Now, I just had a hilarious private conversation with someone who's,
00:07:34.860 let's say, someone associated more with an anti-Trump side.
00:07:39.480 And his explanation for, you know,
00:07:43.880 sort of explaining away why the experts were wrong on so many things
00:07:48.620 is that that's how science works
00:07:50.720 and that, you know, you're always moving toward the truth.
00:07:55.120 And I'm thinking,
00:07:56.520 I don't think that's what's happening here.
00:07:59.620 You know, it's one thing to say science does a lot of testing
00:08:03.520 and they're refining their knowledge over time
00:08:06.240 and you're never quite done, you know,
00:08:08.600 moving toward better knowledge.
00:08:09.960 Okay, everybody gets that.
00:08:12.820 Everybody gets that.
00:08:14.920 But that's not what's happening when they told you
00:08:17.140 that it wasn't transmissible from person to person.
00:08:21.100 That's not what happened when they indicated
00:08:23.600 there was enough testing facilities, you know,
00:08:26.320 to test our way out.
00:08:28.500 There isn't.
00:08:29.940 That's not what happened when they said masks are more bad than good.
00:08:33.640 None of this has to do with the normal progression of science,
00:08:39.140 you know, testing and learning and correcting itself.
00:08:42.440 None of that was happening.
00:08:44.220 This was just gigantic lying and bullshitted and incompetence.
00:08:48.460 That's all it was.
00:08:49.960 It wasn't science, except in the general sense.
00:08:56.740 I ended up in a, you know,
00:09:00.140 I think you'll be amused by this.
00:09:03.640 I don't think it would be a surprise to you
00:09:06.340 to find out that sometimes I can be arrogant
00:09:10.240 or cocky.
00:09:14.220 I'm not sure there's a difference.
00:09:16.040 What's the difference between cocky and arrogant?
00:09:19.620 Are those the same?
00:09:22.960 I guess cocky would be not so much
00:09:25.780 thinking other people are wrong,
00:09:28.700 but arrogant would be
00:09:30.020 you think you're more right than other people.
00:09:32.460 So I guess it'd be a little different.
00:09:34.620 So I prefer to call myself cocky.
00:09:38.640 You might call it arrogant.
00:09:40.840 I will not debate the difference
00:09:43.800 because I like to think I have at least enough self-awareness
00:09:48.880 to know I can be cocky.
00:09:52.700 But, but, but, but it's also based on the fact that I've been right.
00:10:01.900 You know, I'm not cocky without purpose,
00:10:04.660 not without evidence.
00:10:05.880 For example, I don't believe I can play in the NBA.
00:10:11.880 Right?
00:10:13.040 I don't, I don't, because if I, if I just had some weird belief about my powers,
00:10:17.960 I would have crazy thoughts about what I could do.
00:10:21.020 Oh yeah, I could play in the NBA.
00:10:23.340 No problem.
00:10:25.420 But I only make a very limited claim.
00:10:28.560 Very limited claim.
00:10:30.140 This is very limited.
00:10:31.320 that I have a special experience
00:10:34.980 that I didn't put together intentionally,
00:10:38.040 just the, the life path I took
00:10:40.140 gives me special insight
00:10:42.680 on detecting bullshit.
00:10:45.240 Corporate bullshit, especially.
00:10:48.380 You know, organizational bullshit,
00:10:51.160 specifically.
00:10:52.780 Now, I base this claim
00:10:54.300 on being one of the foremost authors
00:10:57.300 of making fun of bullshit in big corporations.
00:11:01.540 Maybe the most foremost author
00:11:03.620 who has wrote the most
00:11:05.620 on the topic of bullshit from big organizations.
00:11:09.780 Who's done more of that than me
00:11:11.280 in the whole world?
00:11:13.280 Maybe, you know,
00:11:14.600 that doesn't make me an expert, of course.
00:11:16.140 It just means I've spent the most time in that domain
00:11:19.080 thinking about it, talking about it,
00:11:21.560 hearing about it, etc.
00:11:23.460 So, I'm pretty good at detecting bullshit.
00:11:26.080 And if you add on top of that
00:11:27.380 training and persuasion
00:11:29.040 and just being around
00:11:30.400 and, you know, having a breadth of experience,
00:11:34.200 it's the only thing I claim.
00:11:36.400 The only thing I claim
00:11:37.780 to be an unnatural ability,
00:11:40.720 meaning something that you can't all do just as well,
00:11:43.240 is detect bullshit.
00:11:46.200 And you've seen me do it in public
00:11:49.000 over and over again.
00:11:51.980 President Trump can't possibly win the election.
00:11:55.980 Bullshit.
00:11:58.780 There's a Cuban embassy problem.
00:12:01.360 There's a secret sonic weapon.
00:12:04.280 Bullshit.
00:12:04.800 ISIS has claimed responsibility
00:12:08.860 for the Vegas shooting.
00:12:12.220 Bullshit.
00:12:14.020 Masks don't work.
00:12:16.340 Bullshit.
00:12:19.860 So, I mean, you've been watching me.
00:12:22.900 You've watched me call bullshit a thousand times,
00:12:25.840 probably write 900 times.
00:12:28.360 I'm exaggerating, of course,
00:12:29.680 but it's what I do.
00:12:32.220 Calling bullshit on stuff.
00:12:34.040 So, here's the funny story.
00:12:35.840 Enough of this setup.
00:12:38.640 As people do,
00:12:39.840 I got myself into a conversation on Twitter
00:12:42.420 with somebody on the topic of the coronavirus.
00:12:47.320 Unbeknownst to me,
00:12:48.280 and here's the funny part,
00:12:50.140 he's a doctor.
00:12:52.840 All right, so here's the setup.
00:12:54.360 I got myself into a conversation
00:12:57.620 about who knows more
00:12:59.380 about this coronavirus situation
00:13:01.200 with a doctor.
00:13:03.860 But I didn't know he was a doctor.
00:13:06.160 I just knew he was a guy on Twitter,
00:13:08.640 and I was disagreeing with him.
00:13:10.400 So, how do you think that went?
00:13:13.360 Well, it turns out that this doctor
00:13:14.980 has two beliefs
00:13:15.980 that I think you should maybe look into.
00:13:21.020 One of those beliefs
00:13:22.180 is that it's possible
00:13:25.060 that we can test our way out of this.
00:13:27.520 That we'll just ramp up our testing really quick,
00:13:31.060 have enough testing stuff,
00:13:33.900 test, test, test, test,
00:13:35.820 contact tracing,
00:13:37.520 and once we get that all cranked up,
00:13:39.880 we can go back to work.
00:13:42.760 Nothing like that's happening.
00:13:45.500 There is nothing like that
00:13:47.340 even slightly happening in the world.
00:13:49.780 The number of tests we would need
00:13:52.460 to test ourselves to safety,
00:13:55.280 to really be able to test
00:13:56.340 all the stuff we want to test,
00:13:57.880 we're not even close.
00:13:59.940 Nor is there any expert
00:14:01.460 who will tell you
00:14:02.380 that we could be close
00:14:04.420 in the coming months.
00:14:06.260 We're not in the same universe
00:14:07.700 of being able to do that.
00:14:09.560 Everybody who tells you
00:14:10.780 that that's the strategy,
00:14:12.340 they're lying.
00:14:14.840 It's bullshit.
00:14:15.660 And by the way,
00:14:18.100 in all cases where I'm calling bullshit,
00:14:20.740 you just have to show me
00:14:22.080 the other case,
00:14:24.440 just show me the evidence
00:14:25.400 for the other side,
00:14:26.440 I probably would change my mind.
00:14:28.800 Because wouldn't I love to think
00:14:30.500 that we could test our way out of this?
00:14:33.040 If there's anything I want to be true,
00:14:35.700 I mean, I really, really want this to be true.
00:14:38.440 And I also believed it was true.
00:14:41.500 Only maybe, I don't know, a week ago?
00:14:45.020 If you had asked me,
00:14:46.120 I would have said,
00:14:46.780 yeah, this is the United States of America.
00:14:50.720 If anybody knows how to make a test,
00:14:54.340 we can make a lot of them.
00:14:56.300 And we can make them fast.
00:14:58.360 We're the United States.
00:15:00.500 And then I learned
00:15:01.240 that there are all kinds of different tests
00:15:02.980 and companies and hundreds of them
00:15:04.620 and nobody's in control.
00:15:05.820 And if you were to add up
00:15:08.580 the ones that we know can be made,
00:15:11.160 it doesn't come close.
00:15:12.980 S. Bill Gates, he made the same point.
00:15:15.300 So in order to prove me wrong,
00:15:18.420 to prove that we can ramp up
00:15:20.480 to the number of tests we need
00:15:22.740 to, let's say, have something done
00:15:24.640 in, say, a month or so,
00:15:26.680 you know, to ramp up during May, let's say,
00:15:29.080 if there's anybody who believes
00:15:30.780 that's a thing,
00:15:31.820 please send me the link.
00:15:34.960 I'll tweet it out.
00:15:36.500 If it looks even a little bit credible,
00:15:39.500 I'll take that story forward.
00:15:42.720 But, good luck with that.
00:15:45.820 You're not going to find
00:15:46.960 these two numbers
00:15:48.540 that at least are compatible
00:15:50.600 with each other.
00:15:51.820 Find me the number of tests
00:15:53.560 that need to be made per day
00:15:55.360 in order to be able to test our way out.
00:15:59.160 What is that number?
00:16:00.060 Go research that.
00:16:02.120 Then figure out if you can find,
00:16:03.940 and I don't think you'll be able
00:16:04.880 to find this,
00:16:05.720 the total number of tests
00:16:07.260 of the right kind.
00:16:09.660 That's the other trick
00:16:10.640 because there are different tests.
00:16:12.640 The tests that you have to wait
00:16:13.760 three days for a result,
00:16:16.120 as Bill Gates points out,
00:16:17.820 what the hell good are they?
00:16:20.000 Because those three days,
00:16:21.280 you've spread it around
00:16:22.980 while you're waiting for the result,
00:16:24.520 et cetera.
00:16:25.640 So you have to figure out,
00:16:26.840 it has to be the right kind of test,
00:16:28.280 sort of the five-minute test
00:16:30.600 to really get any kind of a foothold.
00:16:34.320 So how many of those
00:16:35.420 five-minute or so or less
00:16:38.000 tests are we going to crank up
00:16:40.160 in the month of May?
00:16:41.160 Go research that.
00:16:42.640 How many would we need?
00:16:44.240 Let me do this visually for you.
00:16:46.880 This is my current understanding.
00:16:49.260 I want you to fix it
00:16:50.880 if I'm wrong.
00:16:52.100 I want to be wrong.
00:16:54.200 I mean, I really, really want to be wrong.
00:16:57.720 So please prove me wrong.
00:17:00.220 So my understanding is
00:17:01.360 the number of tests
00:17:02.200 we would need per day
00:17:03.220 is this big.
00:17:04.700 For those of you listening,
00:17:06.260 I'm holding my hands far apart.
00:17:08.820 My current understanding,
00:17:10.280 I hope it's wrong,
00:17:11.980 is that the number we will actually
00:17:13.760 reasonably be able to produce
00:17:15.900 in, say, the next month or two,
00:17:18.360 the period we're talking about,
00:17:20.080 in order to be ready
00:17:21.840 to go back to work
00:17:22.740 in more of a safe way.
00:17:24.780 If the universe we need
00:17:26.520 is my hands being held far apart,
00:17:29.920 the amount we can make
00:17:31.360 is something like the size of my fist.
00:17:34.960 Not close.
00:17:37.680 Not close.
00:17:40.440 All right?
00:17:41.060 And if anybody's telling you otherwise,
00:17:44.540 please tell me.
00:17:46.020 Because I've been waiting
00:17:46.980 for the crisis task force,
00:17:48.800 which is useless, largely,
00:17:51.480 in terms of information.
00:17:53.300 Because I don't think they know.
00:17:55.140 I don't think anybody knows.
00:17:56.640 Here's what I think.
00:17:57.600 Let me put the Dilber filter on this.
00:17:59.860 I believe there are 100 or more companies
00:18:01.940 involved in testing and creating tests.
00:18:04.720 I believe that the government
00:18:05.880 has talked to probably every one of them.
00:18:07.700 And I think the government has said,
00:18:10.080 can you tell us what you can do?
00:18:12.740 And maybe the government heard big numbers.
00:18:15.560 And, you know,
00:18:16.000 I don't know if they summed them all up,
00:18:17.520 but maybe they heard lots of claims.
00:18:19.820 Do you know what corporations claim
00:18:22.640 in situations like this,
00:18:24.940 where the person they're talking to
00:18:26.920 is going to write you a check
00:18:28.240 if you have any story at all?
00:18:31.160 Any story of plausibility,
00:18:33.360 and your customer is going to write you
00:18:35.420 a gigantic frickin' check
00:18:37.160 in an environment
00:18:38.460 in which making money is hard.
00:18:41.440 But you can get a big frickin' check
00:18:43.620 from the government
00:18:44.540 and all you have to do is lie.
00:18:47.620 All you have to do is say,
00:18:48.820 um, yeah, I think maybe in three weeks
00:18:52.260 we could make a million tests
00:18:54.420 if you would just write us a check.
00:18:57.180 Now, what happens in three weeks?
00:18:58.940 Do you think that company says,
00:19:00.280 here's your million tests,
00:19:01.400 just like I promised?
00:19:03.640 Or, or,
00:19:06.140 do you think this would be more like,
00:19:08.820 I need to curse.
00:19:12.440 Can I have permission to curse in the morning?
00:19:15.300 Is that okay?
00:19:17.200 Are your kids still asleep?
00:19:18.880 Probably kids are sleeping in, right?
00:19:21.880 I feel like just some situations,
00:19:25.600 they need a little cursing. 0.93
00:19:28.720 And maybe I can hold that back.
00:19:30.320 I'll try to just curse in the evening.
00:19:31.980 I think that'd be a better idea.
00:19:35.180 So, the point is that, um,
00:19:38.480 I'm almost certain
00:19:39.680 that if it's like every other situation
00:19:42.980 in the corporate world,
00:19:44.660 wait, back me up?
00:19:46.180 Oh, I'm getting a lot of approval for cursing.
00:19:50.260 Alright, let me give it to you
00:19:51.980 with full curse mode on.
00:19:54.900 Hide the kids, hide the kids. 1.00
00:19:57.220 You've been warned.
00:19:57.940 It goes like this.
00:20:00.680 If it's true that the government
00:20:02.180 talked to all these companies
00:20:03.420 that are going to make us all these test kits,
00:20:05.480 and all the companies said,
00:20:07.520 yeah, we'll get you these million test kits,
00:20:09.640 you know, in a few weeks,
00:20:10.920 we can do this.
00:20:13.280 Is that possible?
00:20:15.000 Maybe.
00:20:15.720 Could be.
00:20:16.140 Or, or,
00:20:19.880 could it be
00:20:20.880 that every one of these companies
00:20:22.760 that the government talked to
00:20:24.360 to get information,
00:20:26.340 could it be
00:20:27.020 that they're acting like
00:20:28.480 every other fucking time 0.69
00:20:30.480 they talk to anybody
00:20:31.520 in the whole fucking world?
00:20:33.120 And it goes like this.
00:20:34.480 Hey, vendor,
00:20:35.260 can you get me this in three weeks?
00:20:37.100 Yes, I can.
00:20:38.140 All you have to do is approve it
00:20:39.740 so that there's no turning back.
00:20:42.160 You've got to get
00:20:42.700 a little bit pregnant,
00:20:44.040 and then I'll definitely
00:20:45.060 get this to you in three weeks.
00:20:46.900 What?
00:20:47.260 Here's your check.
00:20:48.380 All right, we're starting.
00:20:49.780 We're going to build it.
00:20:50.960 We're going to have this in,
00:20:51.960 well, did I say three weeks?
00:20:53.680 We'll have this in four weeks.
00:20:55.700 You said three weeks.
00:20:57.220 Yeah, I know,
00:20:57.960 but we just found out
00:20:59.220 we've got this problem
00:21:00.540 with the factory.
00:21:02.420 It's not our fault,
00:21:03.520 but, you know,
00:21:04.000 four weeks, tops.
00:21:05.540 All right, four weeks.
00:21:06.620 And what's the vendor say?
00:21:08.540 Thank you.
00:21:09.400 I just needed
00:21:09.980 that little flexibility
00:21:10.960 because in four or five weeks,
00:21:12.460 what?
00:21:12.900 And you say,
00:21:13.600 four or five weeks?
00:21:14.880 What the fuck
00:21:15.620 are you talking about?
00:21:16.420 I just gave you a check
00:21:17.400 for three weeks.
00:21:18.660 You said you'd give this
00:21:19.640 to me in three weeks.
00:21:21.020 What's the vendor say?
00:21:22.360 Yeah, you know,
00:21:23.320 I really meant that,
00:21:24.620 but I was surprised
00:21:25.580 to find out
00:21:26.400 after we got your money
00:21:27.680 that there's this problem,
00:21:29.320 but we're totally working on it.
00:21:31.040 Five fucking weeks go by.
00:21:32.560 What happens?
00:21:33.760 Where's my goddamn
00:21:34.860 fucking product, 0.93
00:21:36.060 you goddamn asshole 0.99
00:21:37.580 fucking liar?
00:21:38.520 What does your vendor
00:21:39.720 say to you?
00:21:40.860 Almost there.
00:21:42.260 Almost there.
00:21:43.500 All we need
00:21:44.260 is for you to write
00:21:45.300 another check
00:21:46.220 because we're going
00:21:47.400 to need an upgrade
00:21:48.320 that we didn't know
00:21:50.260 we need when we first
00:21:51.580 analyzed this
00:21:52.320 because you didn't quite
00:21:53.100 give us the right data.
00:21:54.600 So it turns out
00:21:55.640 we'll need an extra server
00:21:57.340 so we can get this
00:21:59.060 to you in five weeks.
00:22:01.260 Tops.
00:22:02.040 We just need
00:22:02.640 this extra check.
00:22:03.780 Okay, you motherfucker.
00:22:05.460 You lied to me.
00:22:06.560 You lied to me.
00:22:07.300 You fucking lied to me,
00:22:08.600 but I'm stuck.
00:22:10.300 Now I have to give you
00:22:11.200 that goddamn fucking check 0.93
00:22:12.920 because I can't go back
00:22:14.780 and say let's start over.
00:22:16.020 I'm five weeks
00:22:16.740 into this motherfucker
00:22:17.720 and I can't change it
00:22:19.520 and I'm not going
00:22:20.040 to tell my boss
00:22:20.820 that I fucked up.
00:22:22.280 Right?
00:22:22.720 So you need to fix this.
00:22:24.400 Yes, yes.
00:22:25.840 Four or five weeks
00:22:26.940 we're going to have
00:22:27.500 this fixed
00:22:28.100 and once we get
00:22:29.160 that check
00:22:29.720 I think I can get
00:22:30.760 this to you
00:22:31.180 in two months.
00:22:31.920 Two months?
00:22:32.540 What the fuck
00:22:33.240 are you talking about?
00:22:34.060 You said three fucking weeks.
00:22:37.640 Now,
00:22:38.680 those of you
00:22:40.860 who have worked
00:22:41.460 for a big company
00:22:42.580 back me up
00:22:44.160 in the comments.
00:22:46.120 Did I not just describe
00:22:47.980 every fucking experience
00:22:50.160 you've ever had
00:22:51.200 with every fucking vendor
00:22:53.640 for anything
00:22:54.640 that's complicated?
00:22:56.280 You know,
00:22:56.540 if you're just buying
00:22:57.160 a simple product,
00:22:58.480 sure.
00:22:58.600 But if you're like
00:23:00.000 doing an installation,
00:23:01.960 you're replacing
00:23:03.240 a whole system,
00:23:05.120 tell me how that goes.
00:23:07.540 Every fucking time.
00:23:10.060 That's how it goes.
00:23:11.820 Not sometimes
00:23:12.820 it works out well.
00:23:14.520 Every fucking time
00:23:16.380 it goes the way
00:23:17.120 I just described.
00:23:18.540 Now,
00:23:18.840 multiply that
00:23:19.520 by a hundred
00:23:20.120 fucking lying corporations
00:23:21.780 who talk to our
00:23:23.200 dumbass
00:23:24.140 fucking gullible
00:23:25.420 government
00:23:26.020 who for some reason
00:23:27.580 may have believed
00:23:28.540 they're bullshit
00:23:29.340 and now they think
00:23:31.060 that we can make
00:23:31.700 test kits
00:23:32.340 like fucking magic
00:23:33.740 because we're going
00:23:34.380 to be shitting
00:23:34.960 them out of our asses 0.99
00:23:35.940 in three weeks
00:23:37.100 when nothing like that
00:23:38.340 has ever happened
00:23:39.100 in the fucking history 0.74
00:23:40.280 of this country
00:23:41.300 or the civilization
00:23:43.280 in general.
00:23:45.440 so if you'd like
00:23:48.580 you can believe
00:23:50.880 that this is the first time
00:23:53.660 in the history
00:23:54.240 of the world
00:23:54.920 corporations
00:23:56.440 have accurately
00:23:58.120 told the buyer
00:23:59.180 what they could deliver
00:24:01.140 before they got
00:24:02.960 their money.
00:24:04.800 It could be the first time
00:24:06.100 it's ever happened
00:24:06.920 in fucking 0.93
00:24:08.280 civilization
00:24:09.220 or maybe
00:24:12.380 you put the Dilber 0.97
00:24:13.560 filter on this
00:24:14.460 and say
00:24:14.900 we're not going
00:24:17.320 to test
00:24:17.800 our way
00:24:18.280 out of this
00:24:19.020 and the way
00:24:20.300 you know that
00:24:21.280 the way
00:24:22.360 you know it
00:24:23.240 is that the government
00:24:24.800 didn't even have
00:24:26.020 the balls
00:24:26.920 to put together
00:24:28.420 the estimate
00:24:29.100 for us
00:24:29.900 to say
00:24:30.400 this is how many
00:24:31.720 we need
00:24:32.360 and we're a little
00:24:33.540 embarrassed
00:24:34.120 that we believe it
00:24:35.180 but this is how much
00:24:36.840 they say
00:24:37.320 they're going to make.
00:24:39.940 I don't even know
00:24:41.000 if I want to put
00:24:41.640 that on paper
00:24:42.400 because
00:24:43.520 I don't think
00:24:45.620 it's true.
00:24:47.320 So if you can't
00:24:48.500 even get to the point
00:24:49.300 where the government
00:24:50.000 will lie to you
00:24:51.180 and say
00:24:51.540 we asked them
00:24:52.180 it looks like
00:24:52.760 we got plenty
00:24:53.740 they're going to have
00:24:54.860 this in three weeks
00:24:55.820 if they're not even
00:24:57.120 willing to lie
00:24:58.000 to you about it
00:24:58.740 it's not happening.
00:25:01.680 Same with the vaccines
00:25:02.760 the vaccine story
00:25:03.660 is just complete bullshit.
00:25:05.440 The other thing
00:25:06.260 that this doctor
00:25:07.040 that I found myself
00:25:08.720 talking to
00:25:09.840 on Twitter
00:25:11.020 he made the mistake
00:25:12.460 of questioning
00:25:13.940 my credentials
00:25:14.820 and it's always
00:25:18.100 the same problem
00:25:18.860 the medical people
00:25:20.180 will question
00:25:21.620 my credentials
00:25:22.440 and then I have
00:25:23.480 to correct them
00:25:24.120 and say
00:25:24.360 oh
00:25:24.620 I'm sorry
00:25:26.000 did it seem
00:25:27.240 as though
00:25:27.620 I was offering
00:25:28.520 a medical opinion?
00:25:31.160 No
00:25:31.680 no
00:25:32.400 I'm no expert
00:25:33.240 on medical stuff
00:25:34.400 I'm not going
00:25:35.520 to offer
00:25:35.880 a medical opinion
00:25:37.260 but if you want
00:25:38.660 to know
00:25:38.920 what is bullshit
00:25:39.940 you want
00:25:41.560 to come to me
00:25:42.340 I will spot
00:25:44.180 your bullshit
00:25:45.000 faster than
00:25:46.440 just about anybody
00:25:47.760 am I cocky?
00:25:48.780 yeah
00:25:49.000 yeah I'm cocky
00:25:50.300 about that
00:25:50.960 because I'm good at it
00:25:52.920 I'm not cocky
00:25:54.140 at things I'm bad at
00:25:55.040 that would just be crazy
00:25:56.000 but I'm good at that
00:25:57.800 so yeah
00:25:59.520 come to me
00:26:00.120 when you want
00:26:00.520 to find out
00:26:00.920 what is bullshit
00:26:01.520 so the other thing
00:26:02.640 that this doctor
00:26:03.320 believed
00:26:03.860 is that we could
00:26:04.980 eradicate the virus
00:26:06.240 what?
00:26:11.340 how could you
00:26:12.160 be paying attention
00:26:13.080 to this whole
00:26:14.240 coronavirus thing
00:26:15.260 and think that
00:26:15.880 we could eradicate it?
00:26:17.820 nobody thinks that
00:26:19.000 is there any expert
00:26:20.760 that thinks
00:26:21.200 we could eradicate
00:26:21.920 the virus?
00:26:22.980 so I'm talking
00:26:23.480 to a guy
00:26:23.940 who thinks
00:26:24.400 I'm stupid
00:26:25.160 because I don't
00:26:26.520 have enough
00:26:26.940 medical information
00:26:28.060 and he's the smart one
00:26:30.960 and he thinks
00:26:31.460 we're going to
00:26:31.900 test our way
00:26:32.620 out of it
00:26:33.080 because the corporation
00:26:34.340 said we could
00:26:35.280 okay
00:26:36.980 and that the virus
00:26:39.920 could be eradicated
00:26:40.880 okay
00:26:42.280 says
00:26:43.840 nobody
00:26:45.100 but
00:26:47.000 and then he pointed out
00:26:48.420 I have a credential
00:26:49.200 problem
00:26:49.740 oh what's the world
00:26:52.180 coming to?
00:26:52.900 alright
00:26:53.060 speaking of credentials
00:26:55.560 I only mention this
00:26:58.880 because of the credentials
00:26:59.940 of the person saying it
00:27:01.600 so this is a professor
00:27:03.700 of practice
00:27:04.380 at Harvard
00:27:05.000 and he teaches economics
00:27:07.060 alright
00:27:08.320 and he's a senior fellow
00:27:09.820 so
00:27:10.940 you put all that together
00:27:12.920 he's a smart guy
00:27:14.820 alright
00:27:15.520 now what does he say
00:27:17.220 when he looks at the
00:27:19.340 coronavirus prediction models
00:27:21.860 what does someone
00:27:23.720 who's a Harvard
00:27:25.240 econ professor
00:27:26.320 and a senior fellow
00:27:28.340 clearly very qualified
00:27:30.440 and based on his comments
00:27:31.880 you can tell
00:27:32.340 he's deeply qualified
00:27:33.700 what does he say
00:27:34.760 about the
00:27:35.120 about the prediction models?
00:27:39.320 well
00:27:39.800 he uses
00:27:40.780 big words
00:27:41.580 but
00:27:41.860 here's one of the things
00:27:43.660 he says
00:27:44.000 he says a lot
00:27:44.720 but here's one of the things
00:27:45.500 he says
00:27:46.440 the cubic fit
00:27:47.640 which is the method
00:27:48.880 that I guess they're using
00:27:50.000 is based on
00:27:51.400 an approach
00:27:51.860 to epidemiology
00:27:53.340 that has long
00:27:54.420 been absent
00:27:55.140 from any serious
00:27:56.500 epidemiological
00:27:58.640 discussions
00:27:59.840 it made terrible
00:28:01.600 predictions
00:28:02.140 back in March
00:28:03.000 and April
00:28:03.460 the functional form
00:28:04.960 was chosen
00:28:05.560 to get the result
00:28:06.580 they wanted
00:28:07.220 so
00:28:08.300 there's an expert
00:28:09.340 on models
00:28:10.100 who's telling you
00:28:11.540 exactly what I told you
00:28:13.140 but
00:28:13.440 smarter
00:28:14.100 which is that
00:28:15.720 models are
00:28:16.560 sort of about
00:28:18.580 manipulating
00:28:20.700 perception
00:28:21.560 you know
00:28:22.540 they can do a little bit
00:28:23.520 in terms of
00:28:24.100 bounding things
00:28:25.140 but
00:28:26.240 but if they
00:28:27.040 if they try to use them
00:28:28.280 to convince you
00:28:28.920 there's something specific
00:28:30.060 going to happen
00:28:30.640 like
00:28:30.980 we're going to follow
00:28:32.040 this curve
00:28:32.760 they're not on such
00:28:35.920 solid scientific ground
00:28:37.420 says this
00:28:39.260 Harvard expert
00:28:40.240 and I believe him
00:28:41.720 all right
00:28:42.780 oh by the way
00:28:47.840 by the way
00:28:51.320 so
00:28:52.500 most of you know
00:28:53.760 I've started moving
00:28:55.060 some content
00:28:56.160 I'm not going to be
00:28:57.080 moving these periscopes
00:28:58.240 you'll still be able
00:28:59.020 to see these
00:28:59.580 but in addition
00:29:00.440 if you wanted to see them
00:29:02.340 on the locals
00:29:03.160 platform
00:29:04.000 locals
00:29:04.860 with an s
00:29:05.720 dot com
00:29:06.660 I'm putting some
00:29:08.280 special content
00:29:09.260 on there
00:29:09.760 so that people
00:29:10.360 who subscribe
00:29:11.000 there will get
00:29:11.720 extra stuff
00:29:12.980 and just letting you know
00:29:14.780 if you subscribe there
00:29:15.880 you can see my
00:29:17.360 micro tutorial
00:29:18.920 on personal finance
00:29:20.780 so if you're somebody
00:29:22.220 who doesn't know
00:29:22.720 anything about
00:29:23.420 personal finance
00:29:24.380 and it's just a few
00:29:25.920 minutes
00:29:26.340 to get you started
00:29:27.820 so what I'll be doing
00:29:28.840 is putting lots of
00:29:29.580 little micro lessons
00:29:31.260 just a few minutes
00:29:32.540 on topics
00:29:33.760 for people
00:29:34.340 who just
00:29:34.700 just need to get
00:29:35.600 a
00:29:35.820 some traction
00:29:36.980 on a topic
00:29:37.680 and then they can
00:29:38.380 you know
00:29:38.680 google it
00:29:39.180 research it
00:29:39.880 but I'll get you going
00:29:41.000 in 10 minutes
00:29:41.840 on a bunch of topics
00:29:42.700 so personal finance
00:29:44.060 is the second one
00:29:44.900 the one that was
00:29:45.700 already up there
00:29:46.320 is how to write
00:29:47.760 humor
00:29:48.360 so those are two
00:29:49.900 I'm going to try
00:29:50.880 to do one a week
00:29:51.740 we'll see how that goes
00:29:53.540 so you can see
00:30:00.460 this forming
00:30:01.380 and it's already started
00:30:02.480 so here's a tweet
00:30:04.100 that I said
00:30:05.060 that's based on the fact
00:30:07.140 that once you realize
00:30:08.840 that the whole testing
00:30:09.780 story is a fraud
00:30:10.900 that that's never
00:30:12.160 going to get us
00:30:12.700 where we need to be
00:30:13.520 and that there's
00:30:14.900 no other plan
00:30:15.700 there's nothing else
00:30:17.900 in terms of a plan
00:30:20.340 or a technology
00:30:21.720 or a solution
00:30:22.680 or anything
00:30:23.120 that would get us
00:30:24.500 back to work
00:30:25.120 more safely
00:30:25.860 than just
00:30:27.060 sort of going back
00:30:28.320 to work
00:30:28.740 and trying to
00:30:29.500 you know
00:30:30.020 do it as cautiously
00:30:31.240 as possible
00:30:31.840 and
00:30:32.920 given that that's
00:30:34.780 the case
00:30:35.320 that we don't
00:30:37.000 have an option
00:30:37.960 where people don't
00:30:38.840 die
00:30:39.140 so the not having
00:30:40.600 an option part
00:30:41.220 is the key here
00:30:42.040 so remember
00:30:42.620 there is no option
00:30:44.360 there's nobody
00:30:45.760 smart
00:30:46.260 who can say
00:30:47.520 oh yeah
00:30:48.020 why don't we do this
00:30:49.320 this doesn't exist
00:30:50.900 there's nobody smart
00:30:52.520 offering an option
00:30:53.520 if you don't know that
00:30:54.560 you're missing the most
00:30:55.700 important part of the story
00:30:56.820 because you think
00:30:58.120 they are
00:30:58.780 because you're thinking
00:31:00.320 yeah there's an option
00:31:01.240 we get better testing
00:31:02.720 no that's not a thing
00:31:03.640 that's a fraud
00:31:04.840 you're not going to get
00:31:06.160 better testing
00:31:06.840 in at least
00:31:07.960 within the next
00:31:08.560 several months
00:31:09.160 so I wrote this tweet
00:31:13.140 which is just
00:31:13.800 a realistic assessment
00:31:15.360 of the fact
00:31:17.120 that
00:31:17.500 we don't have options
00:31:18.920 okay
00:31:19.960 so no options
00:31:21.260 here's what I said
00:31:22.160 I once demanded
00:31:23.700 people give me
00:31:24.360 their acceptable
00:31:25.100 death count
00:31:25.820 to go back to work
00:31:27.100 in order to be deemed
00:31:28.900 credible in the conversation
00:31:30.400 that makes sense
00:31:31.180 right
00:31:31.420 if people are going
00:31:32.960 to die either way
00:31:33.880 a serious person
00:31:35.480 is going to say
00:31:35.980 well I choose this path
00:31:37.340 because there will be
00:31:38.820 fewer deaths
00:31:39.720 than the other path
00:31:40.660 but you have to say
00:31:41.940 they're deaths
00:31:42.500 otherwise you're not
00:31:43.620 part of the conversation
00:31:44.540 and then I said
00:31:46.540 I updated that
00:31:47.280 and I said
00:31:48.000 today I see no option
00:31:49.340 but to accept
00:31:50.780 the death toll
00:31:51.680 whatever
00:31:52.660 and
00:31:54.320 that comes from opening
00:31:56.260 because it is
00:31:56.860 what it is
00:31:57.460 so the death toll
00:31:58.880 is just going to be
00:31:59.880 what it is
00:32:01.480 if we had an option
00:32:03.220 to make it
00:32:03.860 something different
00:32:05.020 then we should
00:32:06.240 talk about that
00:32:07.100 but nobody's
00:32:08.740 offered an option
00:32:09.480 the only option
00:32:11.220 we've talked
00:32:12.040 we've heard about
00:32:12.700 are these fake ones
00:32:13.860 like
00:32:14.280 let's think
00:32:15.660 how about if
00:32:16.780 magic happens
00:32:17.880 and then we all
00:32:18.580 have enough tests
00:32:19.260 hey that's an idea
00:32:20.220 let's use magic
00:32:21.420 to make enough tests
00:32:23.160 appear really quickly
00:32:24.060 then we'll test
00:32:25.300 everybody
00:32:25.720 and we'll go back
00:32:27.080 to work
00:32:27.380 that's way better
00:32:28.180 than your plan
00:32:28.840 Scott
00:32:29.260 of just going back
00:32:30.080 to work
00:32:30.620 well it is better
00:32:32.580 than my plan
00:32:33.380 if magic was real
00:32:36.120 but it isn't
00:32:38.340 so we're not going
00:32:39.500 to use magic
00:32:40.120 to create tests
00:32:41.600 that don't exist
00:32:42.400 and can't exist
00:32:43.340 before the economy
00:32:44.580 is destroyed
00:32:45.600 so my take on this
00:32:47.940 is that there's
00:32:48.480 some point
00:32:49.060 at which the economy
00:32:50.380 has gone too far
00:32:51.900 meaning that you can't
00:32:53.080 claw your way back
00:32:53.920 to something good
00:32:54.740 that would be
00:32:56.020 catastrophic
00:32:56.720 we don't know
00:32:57.960 where that point is
00:32:59.100 I suspect that we can
00:33:00.980 go another three weeks
00:33:02.260 in California
00:33:03.000 as long as other states
00:33:05.120 that are in better shape
00:33:06.200 or whatever
00:33:06.660 are beginning to open up
00:33:08.560 sooner
00:33:08.920 I think California
00:33:10.780 could wait
00:33:11.380 you know
00:33:12.440 I don't think
00:33:13.260 we'll go
00:33:13.860 I don't think
00:33:15.020 it becomes a permanent
00:33:16.000 problem in three weeks
00:33:17.300 but I wouldn't say
00:33:19.360 that about six weeks
00:33:20.560 meaning that
00:33:22.060 I don't think
00:33:22.600 anybody's smart enough
00:33:23.520 to know
00:33:24.020 where that
00:33:25.300 you know
00:33:25.740 that crossover point is
00:33:27.400 where you kill
00:33:28.000 more people
00:33:28.560 by killing the economy
00:33:30.400 nobody knows
00:33:31.440 where that is
00:33:32.100 but we do know
00:33:33.660 conceptually
00:33:34.760 that there's some point
00:33:36.000 where it happens
00:33:36.780 and some point
00:33:38.240 that's just too far
00:33:39.160 and I think
00:33:40.820 that you can sort of
00:33:41.920 feel that
00:33:42.860 more than you can
00:33:44.120 analyze it
00:33:44.940 and what I feel
00:33:46.960 and again
00:33:48.340 since we don't have
00:33:49.880 data to be
00:33:51.000 more important
00:33:51.760 or more reliable
00:33:53.200 than anybody's feeling
00:33:54.240 at this point
00:33:54.860 is that the risk
00:33:56.200 of taking this
00:33:57.140 too far
00:33:57.880 and having
00:33:59.000 not enough
00:33:59.600 left of the economy
00:34:00.580 to bring it back
00:34:01.500 is so big
00:34:02.960 that's such a big risk
00:34:04.500 that
00:34:05.540 you'd be better off
00:34:07.720 going a little bit early
00:34:08.780 and we don't have
00:34:10.980 an option
00:34:11.380 we have to go back
00:34:13.000 to work
00:34:13.520 it's only a question
00:34:14.920 of now
00:34:15.640 or wait a few weeks
00:34:16.680 but nothing's really
00:34:18.100 going to change
00:34:19.140 in a few weeks
00:34:19.940 if there was
00:34:21.060 something happening
00:34:21.880 that would change
00:34:23.460 our situation
00:34:24.200 in a few weeks
00:34:25.200 such as having
00:34:26.380 lots more tests
00:34:27.320 or at least enough
00:34:28.900 or a vaccine
00:34:30.160 or therapeutics
00:34:31.180 or something
00:34:31.620 I'd say wait
00:34:33.080 if we could
00:34:35.160 if there was something
00:34:35.860 to wait for
00:34:36.680 I'd say wait
00:34:38.160 which is also
00:34:38.800 why I say
00:34:39.520 it was exactly
00:34:41.280 the right decision
00:34:42.420 to close things down
00:34:43.740 for a while
00:34:44.580 so if the
00:34:46.140 entire close down
00:34:47.580 had been one month
00:34:49.240 I would have said
00:34:52.180 unambiguously
00:34:53.200 that was the right decision
00:34:54.640 because we needed
00:34:56.120 to find out
00:34:56.740 what's what
00:34:57.320 and one month
00:34:59.040 we can survive
00:34:59.960 it doesn't crush
00:35:01.560 the economy
00:35:02.060 one month
00:35:02.660 and I was saying
00:35:03.240 that
00:35:03.440 I was like
00:35:03.760 one month
00:35:05.360 we're going to
00:35:05.880 bounce back
00:35:06.360 from this
00:35:06.820 you know
00:35:07.300 six weeks
00:35:08.140 no problem
00:35:08.760 we're going to
00:35:09.280 bounce back
00:35:09.780 from six weeks
00:35:10.760 and we'll be back
00:35:12.060 by the end of the year
00:35:12.900 and then it turned
00:35:14.020 into
00:35:14.340 well it's not
00:35:14.980 six weeks
00:35:15.680 it's a lot longer
00:35:17.220 now there's nobody
00:35:19.600 who can tell you
00:35:20.280 what's too long
00:35:21.160 but six weeks
00:35:22.360 definitely would have
00:35:23.300 been short enough
00:35:24.860 that we would have
00:35:25.540 bounced back
00:35:26.220 I say that with
00:35:27.580 very high confidence
00:35:28.800 three months
00:35:30.880 I don't know
00:35:32.560 I don't know
00:35:34.200 maybe
00:35:34.880 maybe not
00:35:35.800 but I don't have
00:35:36.420 confidence
00:35:37.100 that three months
00:35:38.020 is
00:35:38.300 we're still going
00:35:40.080 to get back
00:35:40.520 from that
00:35:40.900 so
00:35:44.600 let's see
00:35:46.020 apparently
00:35:50.740 airlines
00:35:51.540 are looking
00:35:53.740 at options
00:35:54.360 for not
00:35:55.060 occupying
00:35:55.700 the center
00:35:56.360 seating
00:35:56.980 so there's
00:35:58.700 I guess
00:35:59.360 Frontier
00:36:00.180 Airlines
00:36:01.440 said that
00:36:02.540 you could
00:36:03.360 actually pay
00:36:03.940 extra
00:36:04.360 to keep
00:36:04.760 the seat
00:36:05.100 next to you
00:36:05.600 open
00:36:05.900 so if
00:36:07.680 you want
00:36:07.900 to pay
00:36:08.120 extra
00:36:08.540 there's
00:36:09.900 nobody
00:36:10.180 in the
00:36:10.480 middle
00:36:10.660 seat
00:36:11.040 now I
00:36:11.760 don't know
00:36:12.040 how that
00:36:12.320 works
00:36:12.700 because if
00:36:13.260 I pay
00:36:13.780 extra
00:36:14.220 the person
00:36:15.440 on the
00:36:15.760 other side
00:36:16.380 you know
00:36:16.740 the other
00:36:17.280 side
00:36:17.600 of the
00:36:17.800 middle
00:36:17.980 seat
00:36:18.360 do they
00:36:19.200 get a
00:36:19.620 they get
00:36:20.520 it for
00:36:20.740 free
00:36:21.100 I mean
00:36:22.440 is that
00:36:23.040 fair
00:36:23.340 and then
00:36:24.960 apparently
00:36:25.240 other airlines
00:36:26.020 are just
00:36:27.160 without extra
00:36:28.100 charge
00:36:28.620 are getting
00:36:29.060 rid of
00:36:29.460 these center
00:36:30.100 seats
00:36:30.560 and I guess
00:36:31.240 they're all
00:36:31.620 requiring
00:36:32.140 that you wear
00:36:32.680 masks
00:36:33.240 now
00:36:33.520 and I'm
00:36:34.420 thinking to
00:36:34.860 myself
00:36:35.220 if the
00:36:35.920 only thing
00:36:36.380 that came
00:36:36.760 out of
00:36:37.040 this
00:36:37.300 is that
00:36:38.480 people
00:36:38.780 could
00:36:39.040 pay
00:36:39.280 extra
00:36:39.800 to have
00:36:40.960 a seat
00:36:41.300 with nobody
00:36:41.860 in the
00:36:42.320 middle
00:36:42.520 seat
00:36:42.900 that would
00:36:44.420 be huge
00:36:45.180 do you
00:36:46.700 know
00:36:47.000 one of the
00:36:48.100 advantages
00:36:48.500 of being
00:36:49.120 my size
00:36:49.980 physically
00:36:50.600 is that
00:36:52.160 if I'm
00:36:53.400 flying in
00:36:54.100 coach
00:36:54.520 and there's
00:36:55.660 nobody in
00:36:56.120 the seat
00:36:56.400 next to
00:36:56.800 me
00:36:56.960 it's not
00:36:58.180 a lot
00:36:58.420 different
00:36:58.740 than
00:36:58.900 first
00:36:59.180 class
00:36:59.680 because
00:37:01.080 I'm
00:37:01.340 not so
00:37:01.720 big
00:37:02.080 that the
00:37:02.640 bigger
00:37:02.860 seat
00:37:03.160 makes that
00:37:03.600 much of
00:37:03.920 a difference
00:37:04.320 to me
00:37:04.660 I can
00:37:05.400 fit in
00:37:05.820 a regular
00:37:06.160 seat
00:37:06.420 just fine
00:37:06.960 so if
00:37:08.560 you give
00:37:08.860 me the
00:37:09.180 option
00:37:09.540 of flying
00:37:10.440 coach
00:37:11.020 with nobody
00:37:12.240 in the
00:37:12.520 seat next
00:37:12.940 to me
00:37:13.280 and I
00:37:13.500 have to
00:37:13.780 pay 20%
00:37:14.960 extra
00:37:15.320 there are a lot
00:37:16.620 of situations
00:37:17.300 where I'm going to
00:37:17.960 fly coach
00:37:18.640 where otherwise
00:37:19.960 I might use
00:37:20.720 my Dilbert money
00:37:21.960 to fly
00:37:23.360 first class
00:37:24.160 and it would be
00:37:25.560 sort of a waste
00:37:26.440 because it might be
00:37:27.160 a two hour flight
00:37:28.080 or something
00:37:28.520 but for a two hour
00:37:30.540 flight I'm not
00:37:31.220 going to fly
00:37:33.180 first class
00:37:33.840 even if I can
00:37:34.520 afford it
00:37:35.040 if I can have
00:37:35.640 nobody in the
00:37:36.220 middle seat
00:37:36.760 I'm not so
00:37:40.680 rich that I
00:37:41.160 throw money
00:37:41.700 away for no
00:37:42.260 reason
00:37:42.540 I'd like to
00:37:45.380 be that rich
00:37:45.900 but I don't
00:37:48.020 know if I
00:37:48.320 can ever feel
00:37:48.980 that
00:37:49.300 that I could
00:37:49.940 waste things
00:37:50.640 alright
00:37:51.360 so that's
00:37:53.540 where we're
00:37:53.840 at
00:37:54.040 if you take
00:37:54.640 the fact
00:37:55.020 that people
00:37:55.400 might be
00:37:55.880 willing to
00:37:56.580 pay a little
00:37:56.980 extra for the
00:37:57.640 middle seat
00:37:58.360 to be empty
00:37:58.960 put on top
00:38:00.220 of that
00:38:00.480 the fact
00:38:00.920 that
00:38:01.280 the fact
00:38:03.800 that
00:38:04.180 the fuel
00:38:05.900 cost
00:38:06.420 should be
00:38:07.040 coming down
00:38:07.580 a lot
00:38:08.240 for airlines
00:38:08.880 that's going
00:38:09.320 to be one
00:38:09.740 of their
00:38:09.960 biggest
00:38:10.280 costs
00:38:10.820 if not
00:38:11.200 the biggest
00:38:11.640 is fuel
00:38:12.740 the biggest
00:38:13.220 cost for
00:38:13.760 airlines
00:38:14.120 or is it
00:38:14.700 something else
00:38:16.220 it's up there
00:38:17.240 and then
00:38:19.620 add on top
00:38:20.460 of that
00:38:20.820 that probably
00:38:21.760 by year end
00:38:22.860 the resorts
00:38:24.600 are going to
00:38:25.060 be offering
00:38:25.600 amazing deals
00:38:27.040 because they
00:38:28.160 won't be
00:38:28.560 booked up
00:38:29.040 unless they
00:38:29.540 do
00:38:29.800 so I
00:38:31.420 would expect
00:38:32.060 that
00:38:32.640 here's
00:38:34.460 something I
00:38:35.100 totally agree
00:38:35.800 with Trump
00:38:36.240 on
00:38:36.500 that 2021
00:38:37.840 I think
00:38:38.620 2021
00:38:39.140 is going
00:38:39.720 to be
00:38:39.880 off the
00:38:40.320 hook
00:38:40.580 because
00:38:41.500 the people
00:38:42.760 who lost
00:38:43.400 work
00:38:44.100 were the
00:38:45.800 people who
00:38:46.300 were not
00:38:46.700 the big
00:38:47.240 buyers
00:38:47.820 to begin
00:38:48.320 with
00:38:48.580 they were
00:38:48.880 the people
00:38:49.220 who didn't
00:38:49.520 have much
00:38:49.920 money
00:38:50.220 they were
00:38:51.260 working the
00:38:51.780 kind of
00:38:52.160 job
00:38:52.620 where they
00:38:53.540 would lose
00:38:54.220 it
00:38:54.460 but they
00:38:55.600 weren't
00:38:55.880 driving
00:38:56.580 consumption
00:38:59.100 because they
00:38:59.920 were the
00:39:00.200 people who
00:39:00.520 didn't have
00:39:00.820 money
00:39:01.100 the people
00:39:02.000 who still
00:39:02.520 kept their
00:39:03.000 job
00:39:03.540 something like
00:39:05.040 70% of the
00:39:06.080 country
00:39:06.400 still got
00:39:07.540 their same
00:39:07.980 paycheck
00:39:08.460 and probably
00:39:09.980 they're the
00:39:10.720 people who
00:39:11.140 are making
00:39:11.560 more
00:39:12.020 than the
00:39:13.120 people who
00:39:13.500 lost their
00:39:13.920 jobs
00:39:14.260 so all
00:39:15.160 those people
00:39:15.600 who were
00:39:15.840 getting extra
00:39:16.620 just spent
00:39:17.760 months indoors
00:39:18.700 not spending
00:39:19.460 much money
00:39:20.040 I guarantee
00:39:22.300 you that
00:39:22.920 there are a
00:39:23.280 lot of
00:39:23.500 people very
00:39:24.140 quietly
00:39:24.720 who had
00:39:25.840 a really
00:39:26.180 good few
00:39:26.840 months
00:39:27.260 their
00:39:28.100 personal
00:39:28.600 expenses
00:39:29.120 dropped
00:39:29.680 to
00:39:29.980 practically
00:39:30.580 maybe
00:39:31.820 30%
00:39:33.240 of what
00:39:33.560 they could
00:39:33.880 have been
00:39:34.240 let's say
00:39:36.740 60% of
00:39:37.560 what they
00:39:37.820 could have
00:39:38.080 been
00:39:38.260 they probably
00:39:39.360 saved money
00:39:40.080 they're probably
00:39:41.980 at least half
00:39:42.800 of this
00:39:43.140 country
00:39:43.560 who saved
00:39:45.200 money
00:39:45.620 because they
00:39:47.480 still got
00:39:47.940 paid
00:39:48.260 and they
00:39:49.040 didn't have
00:39:49.340 anything to
00:39:49.740 spend it
00:39:50.060 on
00:39:50.240 so what
00:39:51.660 happens to
00:39:52.080 all those
00:39:52.400 people who
00:39:52.840 saved money
00:39:53.580 the people
00:39:54.480 who have
00:39:54.760 the money
00:39:55.140 when they're
00:39:56.620 free to go
00:39:57.200 spend it
00:39:57.640 again
00:39:57.920 look at all
00:39:59.120 the cars
00:39:59.760 that they
00:40:00.100 didn't buy
00:40:00.740 all the
00:40:01.200 trips they
00:40:01.740 didn't take
00:40:02.380 the clothes
00:40:03.320 they didn't
00:40:03.700 get
00:40:03.980 I mean
00:40:05.420 2021
00:40:06.620 is going
00:40:07.900 to be
00:40:08.140 off the
00:40:08.600 hook
00:40:08.940 just
00:40:10.380 if we
00:40:11.240 just go
00:40:11.600 back to
00:40:11.960 work
00:40:12.300 nothing
00:40:13.360 special
00:40:13.920 has to
00:40:14.320 happen
00:40:14.640 there is
00:40:15.600 so much
00:40:16.720 you know
00:40:17.660 untapped
00:40:18.440 buying
00:40:19.120 potential
00:40:19.840 it's going
00:40:20.620 to be
00:40:20.800 crazy
00:40:21.160 now
00:40:21.960 of course
00:40:22.860 people's
00:40:23.320 401k
00:40:24.000 their stocks
00:40:25.080 are lower
00:40:25.660 but as
00:40:26.900 of today
00:40:27.660 stocks
00:40:30.980 are having
00:40:31.460 well it looks
00:40:32.040 like it's
00:40:32.360 mixed
00:40:32.680 it was
00:40:32.940 better this
00:40:33.360 morning
00:40:33.680 a lot
00:40:34.540 of stocks
00:40:34.920 are having
00:40:35.240 a good
00:40:35.540 day
00:40:35.860 bitcoin's
00:40:37.020 up
00:40:37.280 bitcoin's
00:40:38.500 having a
00:40:38.780 good time
00:40:39.160 but
00:40:40.260 it seems
00:40:41.700 to me
00:40:42.000 that when
00:40:42.320 we get
00:40:42.680 to the
00:40:42.980 point
00:40:43.220 where the
00:40:43.540 economy
00:40:43.900 is
00:40:44.120 reopening
00:40:44.580 people
00:40:45.700 see that
00:40:46.280 bulge
00:40:46.900 of consumer
00:40:47.760 demand
00:40:48.460 this
00:40:48.780 coming
00:40:49.200 stock
00:40:50.340 market
00:40:50.680 in the
00:40:50.980 401k's
00:40:51.720 are going
00:40:51.940 to be
00:40:52.340 back
00:40:53.680 within
00:40:54.100 let's say
00:40:56.340 spinning
00:40:56.820 territory
00:40:57.300 of where
00:40:58.160 they were
00:40:58.600 and people
00:40:59.620 are going
00:40:59.840 to feel
00:41:00.100 fine
00:41:00.440 so
00:41:02.180 that's
00:41:04.940 the good
00:41:05.220 news
00:41:05.580 all right
00:41:06.900 somebody
00:41:08.740 saying
00:41:09.120 that they
00:41:09.480 saved a
00:41:09.960 ton
00:41:10.180 yeah
00:41:10.940 you know
00:41:11.500 this
00:41:13.340 coronavirus
00:41:13.780 thing
00:41:14.240 will
00:41:14.560 be
00:41:15.500 a big
00:41:16.820 hit
00:41:17.080 to me
00:41:17.780 because
00:41:18.420 I think
00:41:19.000 that my
00:41:19.340 main
00:41:19.620 source
00:41:19.960 of income
00:41:20.380 will
00:41:20.840 probably
00:41:21.500 shrink
00:41:21.900 75 to
00:41:23.400 90 percent
00:41:24.080 this year
00:41:24.540 because I
00:41:25.580 think the
00:41:25.860 small
00:41:26.080 newspapers
00:41:27.140 will just
00:41:27.780 go into
00:41:28.080 business
00:41:28.480 but
00:41:31.820 if my
00:41:33.560 income
00:41:33.980 stayed the
00:41:34.600 same
00:41:34.880 I would
00:41:35.740 have also
00:41:36.180 spent
00:41:36.740 much less
00:41:38.060 I'm not
00:41:38.920 doing
00:41:39.120 anything
00:41:39.460 so I
00:41:40.740 would have
00:41:41.120 come out
00:41:41.420 ahead but
00:41:41.940 I won't
00:41:42.620 be going
00:41:42.980 back to
00:41:43.520 a career
00:41:44.180 that I
00:41:44.720 used to
00:41:44.960 have
00:41:45.620 commercial
00:41:50.080 real estate
00:41:50.760 yeah
00:41:51.380 so somebody
00:41:52.760 saying commercial
00:41:53.460 real estate
00:41:54.000 might be
00:41:54.400 iffy
00:41:54.640 but here's
00:41:55.420 the thing
00:41:55.860 the people
00:41:57.740 who have
00:41:58.360 commercial
00:41:59.320 real estate
00:41:59.780 probably have
00:42:00.360 long term
00:42:01.240 mostly deals
00:42:03.440 so I don't
00:42:04.500 think commercial
00:42:05.220 real estate
00:42:05.700 is going to
00:42:06.060 crash right
00:42:06.820 away
00:42:07.140 I think
00:42:09.000 that's got
00:42:09.460 a little
00:42:09.820 bit of
00:42:10.120 padding
00:42:10.520 because people
00:42:11.420 are still
00:42:11.800 going to
00:42:11.980 have to
00:42:12.200 pay the
00:42:12.480 rent
00:42:12.760 even if
00:42:13.660 a lot
00:42:14.040 more
00:42:14.260 people
00:42:14.540 are
00:42:14.800 staying
00:42:15.320 home
00:42:15.580 for another
00:42:16.000 year or
00:42:16.960 two
00:42:17.180 isn't
00:42:19.480 stock
00:42:19.880 your main
00:42:20.320 source
00:42:20.660 of income
00:42:21.020 no
00:42:21.740 no it
00:42:23.360 is not
00:42:23.840 and nor
00:42:24.660 is it
00:42:25.080 even
00:42:25.420 close
00:42:26.080 anecdotally
00:42:31.020 it didn't
00:42:31.600 just hit
00:42:32.380 poor people
00:42:33.240 in my
00:42:33.860 sphere
00:42:34.180 no it
00:42:34.980 did not
00:42:35.500 just hit
00:42:36.260 poor people
00:42:36.800 but of
00:42:37.380 course they
00:42:37.760 got hit
00:42:38.120 the hardest
00:42:38.680 killed my
00:42:41.380 wife's
00:42:41.840 speaking
00:42:42.340 business
00:42:42.860 yeah
00:42:43.200 yeah
00:42:44.000 anything
00:42:44.380 with travel
00:42:45.180 or crowds
00:42:46.740 somebody
00:42:48.700 says take
00:42:49.240 the speaking
00:42:49.780 engagements
00:42:50.320 what speaking
00:42:51.020 engagements
00:42:51.700 what speaking
00:42:53.620 engagements
00:42:54.300 do you
00:42:55.340 think that
00:42:55.780 I get
00:42:56.080 speaking
00:42:56.580 engagements
00:42:57.100 now
00:42:57.500 now I'm
00:42:59.340 too
00:42:59.640 controversial
00:43:00.700 at this
00:43:01.140 point
00:43:01.400 so I'm
00:43:02.280 no longer
00:43:02.760 a good
00:43:04.420 speaker
00:43:05.080 for a
00:43:05.740 general
00:43:06.060 let's say
00:43:06.420 a corporation
00:43:07.260 event
00:43:07.740 or an
00:43:08.120 industry
00:43:08.500 event
00:43:08.900 because as
00:43:09.820 soon as
00:43:10.100 they book
00:43:10.460 me
00:43:10.620 because this
00:43:11.020 has happened
00:43:11.480 you know
00:43:11.940 I'm not
00:43:12.240 guessing
00:43:12.640 this has
00:43:13.120 happened
00:43:13.400 they'll
00:43:14.180 book me
00:43:14.680 and then
00:43:15.520 they'll tell
00:43:15.880 their members
00:43:16.360 hey we got
00:43:17.000 this Dilber 0.82
00:43:17.500 guy and
00:43:18.040 then somebody
00:43:18.480 in the
00:43:18.720 membership
00:43:19.060 will say
00:43:19.560 you know
00:43:22.260 that he
00:43:22.640 said good
00:43:23.120 things about
00:43:23.740 Trump
00:43:24.160 right
00:43:24.520 and then
00:43:26.000 the organizer
00:43:26.780 says I
00:43:28.140 didn't know
00:43:28.680 that
00:43:29.020 and then
00:43:30.060 they call
00:43:30.440 me and
00:43:30.760 say you
00:43:31.200 know
00:43:31.540 we lost
00:43:32.940 our budget
00:43:33.420 we can't
00:43:34.280 hire you
00:43:34.680 anymore
00:43:35.040 so I
00:43:35.720 mean I've
00:43:36.000 been through
00:43:36.380 this
00:43:36.760 so no
00:43:38.460 I can't
00:43:38.860 do speaking
00:43:39.360 that's not
00:43:40.020 on the table
00:43:40.440 nor can I
00:43:41.340 make a
00:43:41.660 Dilber movie
00:43:42.300 same reason
00:43:43.540 too much
00:43:45.120 you know
00:43:45.620 Hollywood
00:43:45.960 hatred
00:43:46.520 so most
00:43:49.040 lines of
00:43:50.160 my normal
00:43:51.120 business
00:43:51.520 have been
00:43:51.920 closed out
00:43:52.520 for me
00:43:52.880 for different
00:43:53.300 reasons
00:43:53.700 but
00:43:55.120 I will be
00:43:56.380 fine
00:43:56.860 don't worry
00:43:57.680 about it
00:43:58.660 somebody says
00:43:59.760 you make
00:44:00.120 tons on
00:44:00.760 books
00:44:01.160 that's not
00:44:01.880 true actually
00:44:02.420 so
00:44:03.100 the books
00:44:05.100 that I
00:44:05.620 write are
00:44:06.060 actually a
00:44:06.580 trivial part
00:44:07.240 of my
00:44:07.460 income
00:44:07.800 I think
00:44:09.260 even the
00:44:10.060 bestsellers
00:44:10.700 they're actually
00:44:11.660 kind of
00:44:12.020 trivial
00:44:12.380 most people
00:44:15.200 don't realize
00:44:15.740 that
00:44:16.000 the books
00:44:17.440 that make
00:44:17.820 money
00:44:18.160 are the
00:44:19.100 ones that
00:44:19.540 just are
00:44:20.040 just runaway
00:44:21.280 bestsellers
00:44:22.040 but they
00:44:23.120 make pretty
00:44:23.820 much all
00:44:24.260 of the
00:44:24.480 money
00:44:24.720 once you
00:44:26.100 get to
00:44:26.600 well you
00:44:27.220 were on
00:44:27.500 the bestseller
00:44:28.020 list for a
00:44:28.720 few weeks
00:44:29.240 you know
00:44:30.040 but at the
00:44:30.460 bottom
00:44:30.840 and they
00:44:31.700 fell off
00:44:32.260 after a
00:44:32.680 few weeks
00:44:33.160 if you're
00:44:34.280 that kind
00:44:34.740 of author
00:44:35.160 that's not
00:44:36.560 a lot of
00:44:36.820 money
00:44:37.040 and
00:44:38.220 my early
00:44:39.980 Dilbert books
00:44:41.080 were in
00:44:41.900 that other
00:44:42.660 category where
00:44:43.480 it's just
00:44:43.800 crazy money
00:44:44.580 but that
00:44:45.320 was like
00:44:45.620 20 years
00:44:46.180 ago
00:44:46.420 the
00:44:47.260 current
00:44:48.340 publishing
00:44:48.840 even though
00:44:49.560 I write
00:44:49.900 bestsellers
00:44:50.620 they don't
00:44:51.800 they don't
00:44:52.420 sit at the
00:44:53.080 top of the
00:44:53.460 bestseller list
00:44:54.220 for five
00:44:55.000 years
00:44:55.360 those make
00:44:55.920 money
00:44:56.180 but maybe
00:44:57.520 one percent
00:44:58.360 or something
00:44:59.740 of books
00:45:00.340 that get
00:45:00.580 published
00:45:00.960 are big
00:45:01.380 money makers
00:45:01.960 I'm probably
00:45:03.400 in the top
00:45:04.080 five percent
00:45:06.420 I'm just
00:45:08.140 guessing here
00:45:08.820 just off the
00:45:09.620 top of my
00:45:10.080 head
00:45:10.280 I would
00:45:11.140 say that
00:45:11.700 my books
00:45:12.160 sell in
00:45:12.660 the top
00:45:13.000 five percent
00:45:13.780 of books
00:45:14.480 fairly
00:45:15.880 dependably
00:45:16.480 but that's
00:45:17.900 not a lot
00:45:18.240 of money
00:45:18.560 in terms
00:45:21.160 of the
00:45:21.800 big picture
00:45:22.320 cartoon on
00:45:23.760 TV makes
00:45:24.640 no money
00:45:25.260 even though
00:45:26.280 it still
00:45:26.640 runs on
00:45:27.080 TV
00:45:27.380 because
00:45:27.980 Hollywood
00:45:28.780 makes a
00:45:29.300 deal
00:45:29.540 where after
00:45:30.660 a while
00:45:30.960 they keep
00:45:31.380 all the
00:45:31.640 money
00:45:31.860 so that's
00:45:32.320 where that's
00:45:32.860 at
00:45:33.100 anyway
00:45:34.620 just in case
00:45:35.640 you were
00:45:35.840 wondering
00:45:36.080 not that it
00:45:37.060 matters to
00:45:37.660 you
00:45:37.940 but I do
00:45:40.000 have options
00:45:40.480 so I'm not
00:45:40.920 complaining
00:45:41.400 if any of
00:45:43.040 this sounded
00:45:43.440 like a
00:45:43.920 complaint
00:45:44.440 let me
00:45:45.120 clarify
00:45:45.560 I am in
00:45:47.200 a much
00:45:47.660 better
00:45:47.940 situation
00:45:48.580 than 99
00:45:49.560 percent of
00:45:50.160 the world
00:45:50.500 I do not
00:45:51.860 lose sight
00:45:52.620 of that
00:45:53.080 so I'm
00:45:53.920 not going
00:45:54.200 to bitch 1.00
00:45:54.680 about
00:45:55.520 something
00:45:56.440 that happened
00:45:56.820 to me
00:45:57.240 when I'm
00:45:58.260 watching the
00:45:58.740 world melt
00:45:59.260 down
00:45:59.580 like that's
00:46:00.440 not where
00:46:00.800 I'm at
00:46:01.220 but it is
00:46:02.360 also just
00:46:02.900 true
00:46:03.300 that many
00:46:04.680 of us
00:46:05.020 will be
00:46:05.740 affected
00:46:06.120 in our
00:46:06.460 different ways
00:46:07.020 and it's
00:46:07.260 just a fact
00:46:07.820 alright
00:46:08.780 what's my
00:46:13.780 big overhead
00:46:14.480 oh
00:46:15.840 well
00:46:16.880 that's a
00:46:18.720 longer story
00:46:19.380 living is
00:46:21.180 expensive
00:46:21.660 but my
00:46:23.140 property tax
00:46:24.240 is probably
00:46:24.640 more than
00:46:25.440 my property
00:46:27.380 tax on my
00:46:27.980 house
00:46:28.320 now I'm not
00:46:29.240 going to say
00:46:29.520 this
00:46:29.780 sounds like
00:46:30.760 a dick 0.75
00:46:31.080 I'll talk
00:46:31.900 to you
00:46:32.300 tonight
00:46:32.780 man
00:46:33.220 I'
00:46:44.540 gegenüber
00:46:45.700 so
00:46:46.160 you
00:46:46.240 don't
00:46:46.400 see
00:46:47.020 at
00:46:48.480 here
00:46:48.840 you
00:46:49.100 have
00:46:49.460 on
00:46:49.860 my
00:46:50.720 family