Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 958 Scott Adams： Grab Your Beverage and Buckle Up

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:15.420 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the most amazing and immense time of the day.

00:00:22.960 It's such a special time, you should have its own day.

00:00:26.880 And all you need to enjoy it to its maximum potential.

00:00:33.840 It's not very much, really. It doesn't take a lot.

00:00:37.300 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:00:45.560 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:48.500 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the damn pandemic.

00:00:55.260 It's called the Simultaneous Sip and it happens now.

00:00:59.500 Go.

00:01:04.480 You can feel those test kits being built even as we sip.

00:01:10.580 Well, let's talk about all the news.

00:01:16.580 I'm very amused in a Dilbert-like way.

00:01:21.380 Have you noticed that this whole coronavirus crisis can easily be understood through a Dilbert filter?

00:01:31.320 You know, the Dilbert filter is basically that everybody involved in any kind of a big organization is lying and incompetent.

00:01:40.340 It kind of explains everything we've seen, right?

00:01:44.720 Because all the experts are wrong.

00:01:48.060 Almost everything's been wrong.

00:01:49.780 And it's been this gigantic cluster that looks more like a Dilbert cartoon than like an existential threat.

00:02:02.460 I suppose it's both.

00:02:04.680 But here's the funny part in a Dilbert filter.

00:02:07.660 So the president apparently was flirting with the idea of disbanding the coronavirus task force.

00:02:16.960 Now, what did all of his critics say about that?

00:02:20.600 You fool.

00:02:22.080 It's too soon to disband the coronavirus task force.

00:02:26.820 Now, was he ever going to disband the task force?

00:02:32.620 Or was it maybe more of a case where those functions would be handled better by the states?

00:02:39.400 Of course, they would still be on the case.

00:02:41.900 They would still be the experts.

00:02:43.400 They still do interviews.

00:02:44.840 But maybe they don't have to meet together and give some kind of a daily update.

00:02:51.640 Because we're probably at that stage of the crisis where that's not so important anymore.

00:02:57.260 We have lots of sources to get the same information.

00:03:00.440 And frankly, the task force was giving us bad information half the time anyway.

00:03:04.680 So we're no information or they were not really telling us numbers in context.

00:03:09.500 So was it a mistake for the president to say,

00:03:13.640 maybe at the end of the day, we'll just wind this down?

00:03:17.260 I don't think so.

00:03:18.600 It's the most ordinary thing in the world to create something for a specific need.

00:03:24.720 And as you're getting close to the point where maybe some other function is more important,

00:03:29.800 you put those functions into other places, maybe the states.

00:03:36.140 But he got all this criticism.

00:03:37.720 So what he does, he solves it with a Dilbert solution, which is just funny.

00:03:45.420 Because it was a Dilbert criticism that people would act as though they thought disbanding this group

00:03:52.400 somehow made the, I don't know, the function go away.

00:03:56.660 Which, of course, I'm sure was never the point of it.

00:03:59.540 So now that Trump had, apparently he announced just moments ago

00:04:04.920 that he's going to keep the task force indefinitely,

00:04:10.640 except he's going to shift his focus to safely reopening the country.

00:04:15.980 In other words, he's just putting different words on it,

00:04:20.320 so it's harder to complain about.

00:04:21.820 Because what exactly does it mean to shift the focus of the task force?

00:04:28.820 I mean, are Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci going to say something about opening the economy?

00:04:35.340 I mean, what exactly would they do differently

00:04:37.800 under the context of indefinitely keeping the coronavirus task force open

00:04:43.940 versus just having Dr. Fauci still working?

00:04:50.440 It looks a lot the same, doesn't it?

00:04:53.280 Like, would he not answer a question if the task force had been disbanded?

00:04:59.620 Was Fauci just going to go home?

00:05:02.220 Was that ever the plan?

00:05:04.720 Did somebody think we couldn't ask him questions anymore

00:05:07.740 if the task force got disbanded?

00:05:10.320 The fact that Trump has found a Dilbert solution,

00:05:14.700 or whoever advised him,

00:05:16.720 a Dilbert solution to a Dilbert problem,

00:05:19.940 which is you just changed the name of it.

00:05:23.680 And the funny thing is, it'll probably work.

00:05:26.600 Like, that's what's so funny about it.

00:05:28.520 The complaint in the first place was just

00:05:30.560 people not understanding how organizations work,

00:05:33.700 and, you know, it's normal to distribute functions when it's that time.

00:05:37.600 And instead of, like, giving some kind of rational explanation like I did,

00:05:43.820 well, you know, it's time to move those functions

00:05:46.060 into the places they can be performed best,

00:05:49.220 you know, something like that,

00:05:50.580 which wouldn't work.

00:05:52.120 Nobody would buy the truth.

00:05:54.000 It just comes up with basically just refocusing.

00:06:01.060 I don't know.

00:06:01.880 It's funny to me.

00:06:02.740 So, Victor David Hanson had a great line.

00:06:12.500 I just like the way he put this.

00:06:13.980 It's not something you haven't thought of yourself,

00:06:16.620 but I like the way he put it.

00:06:18.940 He calls the experts the credentialed class.

00:06:22.740 And I thought, that is a really good way to put it,

00:06:26.000 the credentialed class.

00:06:27.760 And he says that the credentialed class has been wrong on masks,

00:06:33.720 antibody testing, and, quote, almost everything

00:06:36.380 when it comes down to predicting how the virus would affect the country.

00:06:41.560 Now, I've been saying things like this,

00:06:46.460 and people are pushing back.

00:06:49.380 Am I wrong to say that the experts have been more wrong than right?

00:06:53.320 I mean, they got the broad brush of it, right?

00:06:58.040 There's a virus.

00:06:59.840 It's novel.

00:07:01.600 It's dangerous.

00:07:03.140 A lot of people dying.

00:07:04.060 I mean, they got the big stuff, right?

00:07:06.300 But almost everything in the detail from masks,

00:07:09.900 from human-to-human transmission,

00:07:13.100 to what's the R on this?

00:07:15.140 How fast is this spreading?

00:07:16.840 Do antibodies work or not?

00:07:18.960 Do we have enough tests?

00:07:20.420 Can we get enough tests?

00:07:21.600 I mean, just right across the board,

00:07:26.920 just wrong on just about everything.

00:07:29.700 Now, I just had a hilarious private conversation with someone who's,

00:07:34.860 let's say, someone associated more with an anti-Trump side.

00:07:39.480 And his explanation for, you know,

00:07:43.880 sort of explaining away why the experts were wrong on so many things

00:07:48.620 is that that's how science works

00:07:50.720 and that, you know, you're always moving toward the truth.

00:07:55.120 And I'm thinking,

00:07:56.520 I don't think that's what's happening here.

00:07:59.620 You know, it's one thing to say science does a lot of testing

00:08:03.520 and they're refining their knowledge over time

00:08:06.240 and you're never quite done, you know,

00:08:08.600 moving toward better knowledge.

00:08:09.960 Okay, everybody gets that.

00:08:12.820 Everybody gets that.

00:08:14.920 But that's not what's happening when they told you

00:08:17.140 that it wasn't transmissible from person to person.

00:08:21.100 That's not what happened when they indicated

00:08:23.600 there was enough testing facilities, you know,

00:08:26.320 to test our way out.

00:08:28.500 There isn't.

00:08:29.940 That's not what happened when they said masks are more bad than good.

00:08:33.640 None of this has to do with the normal progression of science,

00:08:39.140 you know, testing and learning and correcting itself.

00:08:42.440 None of that was happening.

00:08:44.220 This was just gigantic lying and bullshitted and incompetence.

00:08:48.460 That's all it was.

00:08:49.960 It wasn't science, except in the general sense.

00:08:56.740 I ended up in a, you know,

00:09:00.140 I think you'll be amused by this.

00:09:03.640 I don't think it would be a surprise to you

00:09:06.340 to find out that sometimes I can be arrogant

00:09:10.240 or cocky.

00:09:14.220 I'm not sure there's a difference.

00:09:16.040 What's the difference between cocky and arrogant?

00:09:19.620 Are those the same?

00:09:22.960 I guess cocky would be not so much

00:09:25.780 thinking other people are wrong,

00:09:28.700 but arrogant would be

00:09:30.020 you think you're more right than other people.

00:09:32.460 So I guess it'd be a little different.

00:09:34.620 So I prefer to call myself cocky.

00:09:38.640 You might call it arrogant.

00:09:40.840 I will not debate the difference

00:09:43.800 because I like to think I have at least enough self-awareness

00:09:48.880 to know I can be cocky.

00:09:52.700 But, but, but, but it's also based on the fact that I've been right.

00:10:01.900 You know, I'm not cocky without purpose,

00:10:04.660 not without evidence.

00:10:05.880 For example, I don't believe I can play in the NBA.

00:10:11.880 Right?

00:10:13.040 I don't, I don't, because if I, if I just had some weird belief about my powers,

00:10:17.960 I would have crazy thoughts about what I could do.

00:10:21.020 Oh yeah, I could play in the NBA.

00:10:23.340 No problem.

00:10:25.420 But I only make a very limited claim.

00:10:28.560 Very limited claim.

00:10:30.140 This is very limited.

00:10:31.320 that I have a special experience

00:10:34.980 that I didn't put together intentionally,

00:10:38.040 just the, the life path I took

00:10:40.140 gives me special insight

00:10:42.680 on detecting bullshit.

00:10:45.240 Corporate bullshit, especially.

00:10:48.380 You know, organizational bullshit,

00:10:51.160 specifically.

00:10:52.780 Now, I base this claim

00:10:54.300 on being one of the foremost authors

00:10:57.300 of making fun of bullshit in big corporations.

00:11:01.540 Maybe the most foremost author

00:11:03.620 who has wrote the most

00:11:05.620 on the topic of bullshit from big organizations.

00:11:09.780 Who's done more of that than me

00:11:11.280 in the whole world?

00:11:13.280 Maybe, you know,

00:11:14.600 that doesn't make me an expert, of course.

00:11:16.140 It just means I've spent the most time in that domain

00:11:19.080 thinking about it, talking about it,

00:11:21.560 hearing about it, etc.

00:11:23.460 So, I'm pretty good at detecting bullshit.

00:11:26.080 And if you add on top of that

00:11:27.380 training and persuasion

00:11:29.040 and just being around

00:11:30.400 and, you know, having a breadth of experience,

00:11:34.200 it's the only thing I claim.

00:11:36.400 The only thing I claim

00:11:37.780 to be an unnatural ability,

00:11:40.720 meaning something that you can't all do just as well,

00:11:43.240 is detect bullshit.

00:11:46.200 And you've seen me do it in public

00:11:49.000 over and over again.

00:11:51.980 President Trump can't possibly win the election.

00:11:55.980 Bullshit.

00:11:58.780 There's a Cuban embassy problem.

00:12:01.360 There's a secret sonic weapon.

00:12:04.280 Bullshit.

00:12:04.800 ISIS has claimed responsibility

00:12:08.860 for the Vegas shooting.

00:12:12.220 Bullshit.

00:12:14.020 Masks don't work.

00:12:16.340 Bullshit.

00:12:19.860 So, I mean, you've been watching me.

00:12:22.900 You've watched me call bullshit a thousand times,

00:12:25.840 probably write 900 times.

00:12:28.360 I'm exaggerating, of course,

00:12:29.680 but it's what I do.

00:12:32.220 Calling bullshit on stuff.

00:12:34.040 So, here's the funny story.

00:12:35.840 Enough of this setup.

00:12:38.640 As people do,

00:12:39.840 I got myself into a conversation on Twitter

00:12:42.420 with somebody on the topic of the coronavirus.

00:12:47.320 Unbeknownst to me,

00:12:48.280 and here's the funny part,

00:12:50.140 he's a doctor.

00:12:52.840 All right, so here's the setup.

00:12:54.360 I got myself into a conversation

00:12:57.620 about who knows more

00:12:59.380 about this coronavirus situation

00:13:01.200 with a doctor.

00:13:03.860 But I didn't know he was a doctor.

00:13:06.160 I just knew he was a guy on Twitter,

00:13:08.640 and I was disagreeing with him.

00:13:10.400 So, how do you think that went?

00:13:13.360 Well, it turns out that this doctor

00:13:14.980 has two beliefs

00:13:15.980 that I think you should maybe look into.

00:13:21.020 One of those beliefs

00:13:22.180 is that it's possible

00:13:25.060 that we can test our way out of this.

00:13:27.520 That we'll just ramp up our testing really quick,

00:13:31.060 have enough testing stuff,

00:13:33.900 test, test, test, test,

00:13:35.820 contact tracing,

00:13:37.520 and once we get that all cranked up,

00:13:39.880 we can go back to work.

00:13:42.760 Nothing like that's happening.

00:13:45.500 There is nothing like that

00:13:47.340 even slightly happening in the world.

00:13:49.780 The number of tests we would need

00:13:52.460 to test ourselves to safety,

00:13:55.280 to really be able to test

00:13:56.340 all the stuff we want to test,

00:13:57.880 we're not even close.

00:13:59.940 Nor is there any expert

00:14:01.460 who will tell you

00:14:02.380 that we could be close

00:14:04.420 in the coming months.

00:14:06.260 We're not in the same universe

00:14:07.700 of being able to do that.

00:14:09.560 Everybody who tells you

00:14:10.780 that that's the strategy,

00:14:12.340 they're lying.

00:14:14.840 It's bullshit.

00:14:15.660 And by the way,

00:14:18.100 in all cases where I'm calling bullshit,

00:14:20.740 you just have to show me

00:14:22.080 the other case,

00:14:24.440 just show me the evidence

00:14:25.400 for the other side,

00:14:26.440 I probably would change my mind.

00:14:28.800 Because wouldn't I love to think

00:14:30.500 that we could test our way out of this?

00:14:33.040 If there's anything I want to be true,

00:14:35.700 I mean, I really, really want this to be true.

00:14:38.440 And I also believed it was true.

00:14:41.500 Only maybe, I don't know, a week ago?

00:14:45.020 If you had asked me,

00:14:46.120 I would have said,

00:14:46.780 yeah, this is the United States of America.

00:14:50.720 If anybody knows how to make a test,

00:14:54.340 we can make a lot of them.

00:14:56.300 And we can make them fast.

00:14:58.360 We're the United States.

00:15:00.500 And then I learned

00:15:01.240 that there are all kinds of different tests

00:15:02.980 and companies and hundreds of them

00:15:04.620 and nobody's in control.

00:15:05.820 And if you were to add up

00:15:08.580 the ones that we know can be made,

00:15:11.160 it doesn't come close.

00:15:12.980 S. Bill Gates, he made the same point.

00:15:15.300 So in order to prove me wrong,

00:15:18.420 to prove that we can ramp up

00:15:20.480 to the number of tests we need

00:15:22.740 to, let's say, have something done

00:15:24.640 in, say, a month or so,

00:15:26.680 you know, to ramp up during May, let's say,

00:15:29.080 if there's anybody who believes

00:15:30.780 that's a thing,

00:15:31.820 please send me the link.

00:15:34.960 I'll tweet it out.

00:15:36.500 If it looks even a little bit credible,

00:15:39.500 I'll take that story forward.

00:15:42.720 But, good luck with that.

00:15:45.820 You're not going to find

00:15:46.960 these two numbers

00:15:48.540 that at least are compatible

00:15:50.600 with each other.

00:15:51.820 Find me the number of tests

00:15:53.560 that need to be made per day

00:15:55.360 in order to be able to test our way out.

00:15:59.160 What is that number?

00:16:00.060 Go research that.

00:16:02.120 Then figure out if you can find,

00:16:03.940 and I don't think you'll be able

00:16:04.880 to find this,

00:16:05.720 the total number of tests

00:16:07.260 of the right kind.

00:16:09.660 That's the other trick

00:16:10.640 because there are different tests.

00:16:12.640 The tests that you have to wait

00:16:13.760 three days for a result,

00:16:16.120 as Bill Gates points out,

00:16:17.820 what the hell good are they?

00:16:20.000 Because those three days,

00:16:21.280 you've spread it around

00:16:22.980 while you're waiting for the result,

00:16:24.520 et cetera.

00:16:25.640 So you have to figure out,

00:16:26.840 it has to be the right kind of test,

00:16:28.280 sort of the five-minute test

00:16:30.600 to really get any kind of a foothold.

00:16:34.320 So how many of those

00:16:35.420 five-minute or so or less

00:16:38.000 tests are we going to crank up

00:16:40.160 in the month of May?

00:16:41.160 Go research that.

00:16:42.640 How many would we need?

00:16:44.240 Let me do this visually for you.

00:16:46.880 This is my current understanding.

00:16:49.260 I want you to fix it

00:16:50.880 if I'm wrong.

00:16:52.100 I want to be wrong.

00:16:54.200 I mean, I really, really want to be wrong.

00:16:57.720 So please prove me wrong.

00:17:00.220 So my understanding is

00:17:01.360 the number of tests

00:17:02.200 we would need per day

00:17:03.220 is this big.

00:17:04.700 For those of you listening,

00:17:06.260 I'm holding my hands far apart.

00:17:08.820 My current understanding,

00:17:10.280 I hope it's wrong,

00:17:11.980 is that the number we will actually

00:17:13.760 reasonably be able to produce

00:17:15.900 in, say, the next month or two,

00:17:18.360 the period we're talking about,

00:17:20.080 in order to be ready

00:17:21.840 to go back to work

00:17:22.740 in more of a safe way.

00:17:24.780 If the universe we need

00:17:26.520 is my hands being held far apart,

00:17:29.920 the amount we can make

00:17:31.360 is something like the size of my fist.

00:17:34.960 Not close.

00:17:37.680 Not close.

00:17:40.440 All right?

00:17:41.060 And if anybody's telling you otherwise,

00:17:44.540 please tell me.

00:17:46.020 Because I've been waiting

00:17:46.980 for the crisis task force,

00:17:48.800 which is useless, largely,

00:17:51.480 in terms of information.

00:17:53.300 Because I don't think they know.

00:17:55.140 I don't think anybody knows.

00:17:56.640 Here's what I think.

00:17:57.600 Let me put the Dilber filter on this.

00:17:59.860 I believe there are 100 or more companies

00:18:01.940 involved in testing and creating tests.

00:18:04.720 I believe that the government

00:18:05.880 has talked to probably every one of them.

00:18:07.700 And I think the government has said,

00:18:10.080 can you tell us what you can do?

00:18:12.740 And maybe the government heard big numbers.

00:18:15.560 And, you know,

00:18:16.000 I don't know if they summed them all up,

00:18:17.520 but maybe they heard lots of claims.

00:18:19.820 Do you know what corporations claim

00:18:22.640 in situations like this,

00:18:24.940 where the person they're talking to

00:18:26.920 is going to write you a check

00:18:28.240 if you have any story at all?

00:18:31.160 Any story of plausibility,

00:18:33.360 and your customer is going to write you

00:18:35.420 a gigantic frickin' check

00:18:37.160 in an environment

00:18:38.460 in which making money is hard.

00:18:41.440 But you can get a big frickin' check

00:18:43.620 from the government

00:18:44.540 and all you have to do is lie.

00:18:47.620 All you have to do is say,

00:18:48.820 um, yeah, I think maybe in three weeks

00:18:52.260 we could make a million tests

00:18:54.420 if you would just write us a check.

00:18:57.180 Now, what happens in three weeks?

00:18:58.940 Do you think that company says,

00:19:00.280 here's your million tests,

00:19:01.400 just like I promised?

00:19:03.640 Or, or,

00:19:06.140 do you think this would be more like,

00:19:08.820 I need to curse.

00:19:12.440 Can I have permission to curse in the morning?

00:19:15.300 Is that okay?

00:19:17.200 Are your kids still asleep?

00:19:18.880 Probably kids are sleeping in, right?

00:19:21.880 I feel like just some situations,

00:19:25.600 they need a little cursing. 0.93

00:19:28.720 And maybe I can hold that back.

00:19:30.320 I'll try to just curse in the evening.

00:19:31.980 I think that'd be a better idea.

00:19:35.180 So, the point is that, um,

00:19:38.480 I'm almost certain

00:19:39.680 that if it's like every other situation

00:19:42.980 in the corporate world,

00:19:44.660 wait, back me up?

00:19:46.180 Oh, I'm getting a lot of approval for cursing.

00:19:50.260 Alright, let me give it to you

00:19:51.980 with full curse mode on.

00:19:54.900 Hide the kids, hide the kids. 1.00

00:19:57.220 You've been warned.

00:19:57.940 It goes like this.

00:20:00.680 If it's true that the government

00:20:02.180 talked to all these companies

00:20:03.420 that are going to make us all these test kits,

00:20:05.480 and all the companies said,

00:20:07.520 yeah, we'll get you these million test kits,

00:20:09.640 you know, in a few weeks,

00:20:10.920 we can do this.

00:20:13.280 Is that possible?

00:20:15.000 Maybe.

00:20:15.720 Could be.

00:20:16.140 Or, or,

00:20:19.880 could it be

00:20:20.880 that every one of these companies

00:20:22.760 that the government talked to

00:20:24.360 to get information,

00:20:26.340 could it be

00:20:27.020 that they're acting like

00:20:28.480 every other fucking time 0.69

00:20:30.480 they talk to anybody

00:20:31.520 in the whole fucking world?

00:20:33.120 And it goes like this.

00:20:34.480 Hey, vendor,

00:20:35.260 can you get me this in three weeks?

00:20:37.100 Yes, I can.

00:20:38.140 All you have to do is approve it

00:20:39.740 so that there's no turning back.

00:20:42.160 You've got to get

00:20:42.700 a little bit pregnant,

00:20:44.040 and then I'll definitely

00:20:45.060 get this to you in three weeks.

00:20:46.900 What?

00:20:47.260 Here's your check.

00:20:48.380 All right, we're starting.

00:20:49.780 We're going to build it.

00:20:50.960 We're going to have this in,

00:20:51.960 well, did I say three weeks?

00:20:53.680 We'll have this in four weeks.

00:20:55.700 You said three weeks.

00:20:57.220 Yeah, I know,

00:20:57.960 but we just found out

00:20:59.220 we've got this problem

00:21:00.540 with the factory.

00:21:02.420 It's not our fault,

00:21:03.520 but, you know,

00:21:04.000 four weeks, tops.

00:21:05.540 All right, four weeks.

00:21:06.620 And what's the vendor say?

00:21:08.540 Thank you.

00:21:09.400 I just needed

00:21:09.980 that little flexibility

00:21:10.960 because in four or five weeks,

00:21:12.460 what?

00:21:12.900 And you say,

00:21:13.600 four or five weeks?

00:21:14.880 What the fuck

00:21:15.620 are you talking about?

00:21:16.420 I just gave you a check

00:21:17.400 for three weeks.

00:21:18.660 You said you'd give this

00:21:19.640 to me in three weeks.

00:21:21.020 What's the vendor say?

00:21:22.360 Yeah, you know,

00:21:23.320 I really meant that,

00:21:24.620 but I was surprised

00:21:25.580 to find out

00:21:26.400 after we got your money

00:21:27.680 that there's this problem,

00:21:29.320 but we're totally working on it.

00:21:31.040 Five fucking weeks go by.

00:21:32.560 What happens?

00:21:33.760 Where's my goddamn

00:21:34.860 fucking product, 0.93

00:21:36.060 you goddamn asshole 0.99

00:21:37.580 fucking liar?

00:21:38.520 What does your vendor

00:21:39.720 say to you?

00:21:40.860 Almost there.

00:21:42.260 Almost there.

00:21:43.500 All we need

00:21:44.260 is for you to write

00:21:45.300 another check

00:21:46.220 because we're going

00:21:47.400 to need an upgrade

00:21:48.320 that we didn't know

00:21:50.260 we need when we first

00:21:51.580 analyzed this

00:21:52.320 because you didn't quite

00:21:53.100 give us the right data.

00:21:54.600 So it turns out

00:21:55.640 we'll need an extra server

00:21:57.340 so we can get this

00:21:59.060 to you in five weeks.

00:22:01.260 Tops.

00:22:02.040 We just need

00:22:02.640 this extra check.

00:22:03.780 Okay, you motherfucker.

00:22:05.460 You lied to me.

00:22:06.560 You lied to me.

00:22:07.300 You fucking lied to me,

00:22:08.600 but I'm stuck.

00:22:10.300 Now I have to give you

00:22:11.200 that goddamn fucking check 0.93

00:22:12.920 because I can't go back

00:22:14.780 and say let's start over.

00:22:16.020 I'm five weeks

00:22:16.740 into this motherfucker

00:22:17.720 and I can't change it

00:22:19.520 and I'm not going

00:22:20.040 to tell my boss

00:22:20.820 that I fucked up.

00:22:22.280 Right?

00:22:22.720 So you need to fix this.

00:22:24.400 Yes, yes.

00:22:25.840 Four or five weeks

00:22:26.940 we're going to have

00:22:27.500 this fixed

00:22:28.100 and once we get

00:22:29.160 that check

00:22:29.720 I think I can get

00:22:30.760 this to you

00:22:31.180 in two months.

00:22:31.920 Two months?

00:22:32.540 What the fuck

00:22:33.240 are you talking about?

00:22:34.060 You said three fucking weeks.

00:22:37.640 Now,

00:22:38.680 those of you

00:22:40.860 who have worked

00:22:41.460 for a big company

00:22:42.580 back me up

00:22:44.160 in the comments.

00:22:46.120 Did I not just describe

00:22:47.980 every fucking experience

00:22:50.160 you've ever had

00:22:51.200 with every fucking vendor

00:22:53.640 for anything

00:22:54.640 that's complicated?

00:22:56.280 You know,

00:22:56.540 if you're just buying

00:22:57.160 a simple product,

00:22:58.480 sure.

00:22:58.600 But if you're like

00:23:00.000 doing an installation,

00:23:01.960 you're replacing

00:23:03.240 a whole system,

00:23:05.120 tell me how that goes.

00:23:07.540 Every fucking time.

00:23:10.060 That's how it goes.

00:23:11.820 Not sometimes

00:23:12.820 it works out well.

00:23:14.520 Every fucking time

00:23:16.380 it goes the way

00:23:17.120 I just described.

00:23:18.540 Now,

00:23:18.840 multiply that

00:23:19.520 by a hundred

00:23:20.120 fucking lying corporations

00:23:21.780 who talk to our

00:23:23.200 dumbass

00:23:24.140 fucking gullible

00:23:25.420 government

00:23:26.020 who for some reason

00:23:27.580 may have believed

00:23:28.540 they're bullshit

00:23:29.340 and now they think

00:23:31.060 that we can make

00:23:31.700 test kits

00:23:32.340 like fucking magic

00:23:33.740 because we're going

00:23:34.380 to be shitting

00:23:34.960 them out of our asses 0.99

00:23:35.940 in three weeks

00:23:37.100 when nothing like that

00:23:38.340 has ever happened

00:23:39.100 in the fucking history 0.74

00:23:40.280 of this country

00:23:41.300 or the civilization

00:23:43.280 in general.

00:23:45.440 so if you'd like

00:23:48.580 you can believe

00:23:50.880 that this is the first time

00:23:53.660 in the history

00:23:54.240 of the world

00:23:54.920 corporations

00:23:56.440 have accurately

00:23:58.120 told the buyer

00:23:59.180 what they could deliver

00:24:01.140 before they got

00:24:02.960 their money.

00:24:04.800 It could be the first time

00:24:06.100 it's ever happened

00:24:06.920 in fucking 0.93

00:24:08.280 civilization

00:24:09.220 or maybe

00:24:12.380 you put the Dilber 0.97

00:24:13.560 filter on this

00:24:14.460 and say

00:24:14.900 we're not going

00:24:17.320 to test

00:24:17.800 our way

00:24:18.280 out of this

00:24:19.020 and the way

00:24:20.300 you know that

00:24:21.280 the way

00:24:22.360 you know it

00:24:23.240 is that the government

00:24:24.800 didn't even have

00:24:26.020 the balls

00:24:26.920 to put together

00:24:28.420 the estimate

00:24:29.100 for us

00:24:29.900 to say

00:24:30.400 this is how many

00:24:31.720 we need

00:24:32.360 and we're a little

00:24:33.540 embarrassed

00:24:34.120 that we believe it

00:24:35.180 but this is how much

00:24:36.840 they say

00:24:37.320 they're going to make.

00:24:39.940 I don't even know

00:24:41.000 if I want to put

00:24:41.640 that on paper

00:24:42.400 because

00:24:43.520 I don't think

00:24:45.620 it's true.

00:24:47.320 So if you can't

00:24:48.500 even get to the point

00:24:49.300 where the government

00:24:50.000 will lie to you

00:24:51.180 and say

00:24:51.540 we asked them

00:24:52.180 it looks like

00:24:52.760 we got plenty

00:24:53.740 they're going to have

00:24:54.860 this in three weeks

00:24:55.820 if they're not even

00:24:57.120 willing to lie

00:24:58.000 to you about it

00:24:58.740 it's not happening.

00:25:01.680 Same with the vaccines

00:25:02.760 the vaccine story

00:25:03.660 is just complete bullshit.

00:25:05.440 The other thing

00:25:06.260 that this doctor

00:25:07.040 that I found myself

00:25:08.720 talking to

00:25:09.840 on Twitter

00:25:11.020 he made the mistake

00:25:12.460 of questioning

00:25:13.940 my credentials

00:25:14.820 and it's always

00:25:18.100 the same problem

00:25:18.860 the medical people

00:25:20.180 will question

00:25:21.620 my credentials

00:25:22.440 and then I have

00:25:23.480 to correct them

00:25:24.120 and say

00:25:24.360 oh

00:25:24.620 I'm sorry

00:25:26.000 did it seem

00:25:27.240 as though

00:25:27.620 I was offering

00:25:28.520 a medical opinion?

00:25:31.160 No

00:25:31.680 no

00:25:32.400 I'm no expert

00:25:33.240 on medical stuff

00:25:34.400 I'm not going

00:25:35.520 to offer

00:25:35.880 a medical opinion

00:25:37.260 but if you want

00:25:38.660 to know

00:25:38.920 what is bullshit

00:25:39.940 you want

00:25:41.560 to come to me

00:25:42.340 I will spot

00:25:44.180 your bullshit

00:25:45.000 faster than

00:25:46.440 just about anybody

00:25:47.760 am I cocky?

00:25:48.780 yeah

00:25:49.000 yeah I'm cocky

00:25:50.300 about that

00:25:50.960 because I'm good at it

00:25:52.920 I'm not cocky

00:25:54.140 at things I'm bad at

00:25:55.040 that would just be crazy

00:25:56.000 but I'm good at that

00:25:57.800 so yeah

00:25:59.520 come to me

00:26:00.120 when you want

00:26:00.520 to find out

00:26:00.920 what is bullshit

00:26:01.520 so the other thing

00:26:02.640 that this doctor

00:26:03.320 believed

00:26:03.860 is that we could

00:26:04.980 eradicate the virus

00:26:06.240 what?

00:26:11.340 how could you

00:26:12.160 be paying attention

00:26:13.080 to this whole

00:26:14.240 coronavirus thing

00:26:15.260 and think that

00:26:15.880 we could eradicate it?

00:26:17.820 nobody thinks that

00:26:19.000 is there any expert

00:26:20.760 that thinks

00:26:21.200 we could eradicate

00:26:21.920 the virus?

00:26:22.980 so I'm talking

00:26:23.480 to a guy

00:26:23.940 who thinks

00:26:24.400 I'm stupid

00:26:25.160 because I don't

00:26:26.520 have enough

00:26:26.940 medical information

00:26:28.060 and he's the smart one

00:26:30.960 and he thinks

00:26:31.460 we're going to

00:26:31.900 test our way

00:26:32.620 out of it

00:26:33.080 because the corporation

00:26:34.340 said we could

00:26:35.280 okay

00:26:36.980 and that the virus

00:26:39.920 could be eradicated

00:26:40.880 okay

00:26:42.280 says

00:26:43.840 nobody

00:26:45.100 but

00:26:47.000 and then he pointed out

00:26:48.420 I have a credential

00:26:49.200 problem

00:26:49.740 oh what's the world

00:26:52.180 coming to?

00:26:52.900 alright

00:26:53.060 speaking of credentials

00:26:55.560 I only mention this

00:26:58.880 because of the credentials

00:26:59.940 of the person saying it

00:27:01.600 so this is a professor

00:27:03.700 of practice

00:27:04.380 at Harvard

00:27:05.000 and he teaches economics

00:27:07.060 alright

00:27:08.320 and he's a senior fellow

00:27:09.820 so

00:27:10.940 you put all that together

00:27:12.920 he's a smart guy

00:27:14.820 alright

00:27:15.520 now what does he say

00:27:17.220 when he looks at the

00:27:19.340 coronavirus prediction models

00:27:21.860 what does someone

00:27:23.720 who's a Harvard

00:27:25.240 econ professor

00:27:26.320 and a senior fellow

00:27:28.340 clearly very qualified

00:27:30.440 and based on his comments

00:27:31.880 you can tell

00:27:32.340 he's deeply qualified

00:27:33.700 what does he say

00:27:34.760 about the

00:27:35.120 about the prediction models?

00:27:39.320 well

00:27:39.800 he uses

00:27:40.780 big words

00:27:41.580 but

00:27:41.860 here's one of the things

00:27:43.660 he says

00:27:44.000 he says a lot

00:27:44.720 but here's one of the things

00:27:45.500 he says

00:27:46.440 the cubic fit

00:27:47.640 which is the method

00:27:48.880 that I guess they're using

00:27:50.000 is based on

00:27:51.400 an approach

00:27:51.860 to epidemiology

00:27:53.340 that has long

00:27:54.420 been absent

00:27:55.140 from any serious

00:27:56.500 epidemiological

00:27:58.640 discussions

00:27:59.840 it made terrible

00:28:01.600 predictions

00:28:02.140 back in March

00:28:03.000 and April

00:28:03.460 the functional form

00:28:04.960 was chosen

00:28:05.560 to get the result

00:28:06.580 they wanted

00:28:07.220 so

00:28:08.300 there's an expert

00:28:09.340 on models

00:28:10.100 who's telling you

00:28:11.540 exactly what I told you

00:28:13.140 but

00:28:13.440 smarter

00:28:14.100 which is that

00:28:15.720 models are

00:28:16.560 sort of about

00:28:18.580 manipulating

00:28:20.700 perception

00:28:21.560 you know

00:28:22.540 they can do a little bit

00:28:23.520 in terms of

00:28:24.100 bounding things

00:28:25.140 but

00:28:26.240 but if they

00:28:27.040 if they try to use them

00:28:28.280 to convince you

00:28:28.920 there's something specific

00:28:30.060 going to happen

00:28:30.640 like

00:28:30.980 we're going to follow

00:28:32.040 this curve

00:28:32.760 they're not on such

00:28:35.920 solid scientific ground

00:28:37.420 says this

00:28:39.260 Harvard expert

00:28:40.240 and I believe him

00:28:41.720 all right

00:28:42.780 oh by the way

00:28:47.840 by the way

00:28:51.320 so

00:28:52.500 most of you know

00:28:53.760 I've started moving

00:28:55.060 some content

00:28:56.160 I'm not going to be

00:28:57.080 moving these periscopes

00:28:58.240 you'll still be able

00:28:59.020 to see these

00:28:59.580 but in addition

00:29:00.440 if you wanted to see them

00:29:02.340 on the locals

00:29:03.160 platform

00:29:04.000 locals

00:29:04.860 with an s

00:29:05.720 dot com

00:29:06.660 I'm putting some

00:29:08.280 special content

00:29:09.260 on there

00:29:09.760 so that people

00:29:10.360 who subscribe

00:29:11.000 there will get

00:29:11.720 extra stuff

00:29:12.980 and just letting you know

00:29:14.780 if you subscribe there

00:29:15.880 you can see my

00:29:17.360 micro tutorial

00:29:18.920 on personal finance

00:29:20.780 so if you're somebody

00:29:22.220 who doesn't know

00:29:22.720 anything about

00:29:23.420 personal finance

00:29:24.380 and it's just a few

00:29:25.920 minutes

00:29:26.340 to get you started

00:29:27.820 so what I'll be doing

00:29:28.840 is putting lots of

00:29:29.580 little micro lessons

00:29:31.260 just a few minutes

00:29:32.540 on topics

00:29:33.760 for people

00:29:34.340 who just

00:29:34.700 just need to get

00:29:35.600 a

00:29:35.820 some traction

00:29:36.980 on a topic

00:29:37.680 and then they can

00:29:38.380 you know

00:29:38.680 google it

00:29:39.180 research it

00:29:39.880 but I'll get you going

00:29:41.000 in 10 minutes

00:29:41.840 on a bunch of topics

00:29:42.700 so personal finance

00:29:44.060 is the second one

00:29:44.900 the one that was

00:29:45.700 already up there

00:29:46.320 is how to write

00:29:47.760 humor

00:29:48.360 so those are two

00:29:49.900 I'm going to try

00:29:50.880 to do one a week

00:29:51.740 we'll see how that goes

00:29:53.540 so you can see

00:30:00.460 this forming

00:30:01.380 and it's already started

00:30:02.480 so here's a tweet

00:30:04.100 that I said

00:30:05.060 that's based on the fact

00:30:07.140 that once you realize

00:30:08.840 that the whole testing

00:30:09.780 story is a fraud

00:30:10.900 that that's never

00:30:12.160 going to get us

00:30:12.700 where we need to be

00:30:13.520 and that there's

00:30:14.900 no other plan

00:30:15.700 there's nothing else

00:30:17.900 in terms of a plan

00:30:20.340 or a technology

00:30:21.720 or a solution

00:30:22.680 or anything

00:30:23.120 that would get us

00:30:24.500 back to work

00:30:25.120 more safely

00:30:25.860 than just

00:30:27.060 sort of going back

00:30:28.320 to work

00:30:28.740 and trying to

00:30:29.500 you know

00:30:30.020 do it as cautiously

00:30:31.240 as possible

00:30:31.840 and

00:30:32.920 given that that's

00:30:34.780 the case

00:30:35.320 that we don't

00:30:37.000 have an option

00:30:37.960 where people don't

00:30:38.840 die

00:30:39.140 so the not having

00:30:40.600 an option part

00:30:41.220 is the key here

00:30:42.040 so remember

00:30:42.620 there is no option

00:30:44.360 there's nobody

00:30:45.760 smart

00:30:46.260 who can say

00:30:47.520 oh yeah

00:30:48.020 why don't we do this

00:30:49.320 this doesn't exist

00:30:50.900 there's nobody smart

00:30:52.520 offering an option

00:30:53.520 if you don't know that

00:30:54.560 you're missing the most

00:30:55.700 important part of the story

00:30:56.820 because you think

00:30:58.120 they are

00:30:58.780 because you're thinking

00:31:00.320 yeah there's an option

00:31:01.240 we get better testing

00:31:02.720 no that's not a thing

00:31:03.640 that's a fraud

00:31:04.840 you're not going to get

00:31:06.160 better testing

00:31:06.840 in at least

00:31:07.960 within the next

00:31:08.560 several months

00:31:09.160 so I wrote this tweet

00:31:13.140 which is just

00:31:13.800 a realistic assessment

00:31:15.360 of the fact

00:31:17.120 that

00:31:17.500 we don't have options

00:31:18.920 okay

00:31:19.960 so no options

00:31:21.260 here's what I said

00:31:22.160 I once demanded

00:31:23.700 people give me

00:31:24.360 their acceptable

00:31:25.100 death count

00:31:25.820 to go back to work

00:31:27.100 in order to be deemed

00:31:28.900 credible in the conversation

00:31:30.400 that makes sense

00:31:31.180 right

00:31:31.420 if people are going

00:31:32.960 to die either way

00:31:33.880 a serious person

00:31:35.480 is going to say

00:31:35.980 well I choose this path

00:31:37.340 because there will be

00:31:38.820 fewer deaths

00:31:39.720 than the other path

00:31:40.660 but you have to say

00:31:41.940 they're deaths

00:31:42.500 otherwise you're not

00:31:43.620 part of the conversation

00:31:44.540 and then I said

00:31:46.540 I updated that

00:31:47.280 and I said

00:31:48.000 today I see no option

00:31:49.340 but to accept

00:31:50.780 the death toll

00:31:51.680 whatever

00:31:52.660 and

00:31:54.320 that comes from opening

00:31:56.260 because it is

00:31:56.860 what it is

00:31:57.460 so the death toll

00:31:58.880 is just going to be

00:31:59.880 what it is

00:32:01.480 if we had an option

00:32:03.220 to make it

00:32:03.860 something different

00:32:05.020 then we should

00:32:06.240 talk about that

00:32:07.100 but nobody's

00:32:08.740 offered an option

00:32:09.480 the only option

00:32:11.220 we've talked

00:32:12.040 we've heard about

00:32:12.700 are these fake ones

00:32:13.860 like

00:32:14.280 let's think

00:32:15.660 how about if

00:32:16.780 magic happens

00:32:17.880 and then we all

00:32:18.580 have enough tests

00:32:19.260 hey that's an idea

00:32:20.220 let's use magic

00:32:21.420 to make enough tests

00:32:23.160 appear really quickly

00:32:24.060 then we'll test

00:32:25.300 everybody

00:32:25.720 and we'll go back

00:32:27.080 to work

00:32:27.380 that's way better

00:32:28.180 than your plan

00:32:28.840 Scott

00:32:29.260 of just going back

00:32:30.080 to work

00:32:30.620 well it is better

00:32:32.580 than my plan

00:32:33.380 if magic was real

00:32:36.120 but it isn't

00:32:38.340 so we're not going

00:32:39.500 to use magic

00:32:40.120 to create tests

00:32:41.600 that don't exist

00:32:42.400 and can't exist

00:32:43.340 before the economy

00:32:44.580 is destroyed

00:32:45.600 so my take on this

00:32:47.940 is that there's

00:32:48.480 some point

00:32:49.060 at which the economy

00:32:50.380 has gone too far

00:32:51.900 meaning that you can't

00:32:53.080 claw your way back

00:32:53.920 to something good

00:32:54.740 that would be

00:32:56.020 catastrophic

00:32:56.720 we don't know

00:32:57.960 where that point is

00:32:59.100 I suspect that we can

00:33:00.980 go another three weeks

00:33:02.260 in California

00:33:03.000 as long as other states

00:33:05.120 that are in better shape

00:33:06.200 or whatever

00:33:06.660 are beginning to open up

00:33:08.560 sooner

00:33:08.920 I think California

00:33:10.780 could wait

00:33:11.380 you know

00:33:12.440 I don't think

00:33:13.260 we'll go

00:33:13.860 I don't think

00:33:15.020 it becomes a permanent

00:33:16.000 problem in three weeks

00:33:17.300 but I wouldn't say

00:33:19.360 that about six weeks

00:33:20.560 meaning that

00:33:22.060 I don't think

00:33:22.600 anybody's smart enough

00:33:23.520 to know

00:33:24.020 where that

00:33:25.300 you know

00:33:25.740 that crossover point is

00:33:27.400 where you kill

00:33:28.000 more people

00:33:28.560 by killing the economy

00:33:30.400 nobody knows

00:33:31.440 where that is

00:33:32.100 but we do know

00:33:33.660 conceptually

00:33:34.760 that there's some point

00:33:36.000 where it happens

00:33:36.780 and some point

00:33:38.240 that's just too far

00:33:39.160 and I think

00:33:40.820 that you can sort of

00:33:41.920 feel that

00:33:42.860 more than you can

00:33:44.120 analyze it

00:33:44.940 and what I feel

00:33:46.960 and again

00:33:48.340 since we don't have

00:33:49.880 data to be

00:33:51.000 more important

00:33:51.760 or more reliable

00:33:53.200 than anybody's feeling

00:33:54.240 at this point

00:33:54.860 is that the risk

00:33:56.200 of taking this

00:33:57.140 too far

00:33:57.880 and having

00:33:59.000 not enough

00:33:59.600 left of the economy

00:34:00.580 to bring it back

00:34:01.500 is so big

00:34:02.960 that's such a big risk

00:34:04.500 that

00:34:05.540 you'd be better off

00:34:07.720 going a little bit early

00:34:08.780 and we don't have

00:34:10.980 an option

00:34:11.380 we have to go back

00:34:13.000 to work

00:34:13.520 it's only a question

00:34:14.920 of now

00:34:15.640 or wait a few weeks

00:34:16.680 but nothing's really

00:34:18.100 going to change

00:34:19.140 in a few weeks

00:34:19.940 if there was

00:34:21.060 something happening

00:34:21.880 that would change

00:34:23.460 our situation

00:34:24.200 in a few weeks

00:34:25.200 such as having

00:34:26.380 lots more tests

00:34:27.320 or at least enough

00:34:28.900 or a vaccine

00:34:30.160 or therapeutics

00:34:31.180 or something

00:34:31.620 I'd say wait

00:34:33.080 if we could

00:34:35.160 if there was something

00:34:35.860 to wait for

00:34:36.680 I'd say wait

00:34:38.160 which is also

00:34:38.800 why I say

00:34:39.520 it was exactly

00:34:41.280 the right decision

00:34:42.420 to close things down

00:34:43.740 for a while

00:34:44.580 so if the

00:34:46.140 entire close down

00:34:47.580 had been one month

00:34:49.240 I would have said

00:34:52.180 unambiguously

00:34:53.200 that was the right decision

00:34:54.640 because we needed

00:34:56.120 to find out

00:34:56.740 what's what

00:34:57.320 and one month

00:34:59.040 we can survive

00:34:59.960 it doesn't crush

00:35:01.560 the economy

00:35:02.060 one month

00:35:02.660 and I was saying

00:35:03.240 that

00:35:03.440 I was like

00:35:03.760 one month

00:35:05.360 we're going to

00:35:05.880 bounce back

00:35:06.360 from this

00:35:06.820 you know

00:35:07.300 six weeks

00:35:08.140 no problem

00:35:08.760 we're going to

00:35:09.280 bounce back

00:35:09.780 from six weeks

00:35:10.760 and we'll be back

00:35:12.060 by the end of the year

00:35:12.900 and then it turned

00:35:14.020 into

00:35:14.340 well it's not

00:35:14.980 six weeks

00:35:15.680 it's a lot longer

00:35:17.220 now there's nobody

00:35:19.600 who can tell you

00:35:20.280 what's too long

00:35:21.160 but six weeks

00:35:22.360 definitely would have

00:35:23.300 been short enough

00:35:24.860 that we would have

00:35:25.540 bounced back

00:35:26.220 I say that with

00:35:27.580 very high confidence

00:35:28.800 three months

00:35:30.880 I don't know

00:35:32.560 I don't know

00:35:34.200 maybe

00:35:34.880 maybe not

00:35:35.800 but I don't have

00:35:36.420 confidence

00:35:37.100 that three months

00:35:38.020 is

00:35:38.300 we're still going

00:35:40.080 to get back

00:35:40.520 from that

00:35:40.900 so

00:35:44.600 let's see

00:35:46.020 apparently

00:35:50.740 airlines

00:35:51.540 are looking

00:35:53.740 at options

00:35:54.360 for not

00:35:55.060 occupying

00:35:55.700 the center

00:35:56.360 seating

00:35:56.980 so there's

00:35:58.700 I guess

00:35:59.360 Frontier

00:36:00.180 Airlines

00:36:01.440 said that

00:36:02.540 you could

00:36:03.360 actually pay

00:36:03.940 extra

00:36:04.360 to keep

00:36:04.760 the seat

00:36:05.100 next to you

00:36:05.600 open

00:36:05.900 so if

00:36:07.680 you want

00:36:07.900 to pay

00:36:08.120 extra

00:36:08.540 there's

00:36:09.900 nobody

00:36:10.180 in the

00:36:10.480 middle

00:36:10.660 seat

00:36:11.040 now I

00:36:11.760 don't know

00:36:12.040 how that

00:36:12.320 works

00:36:12.700 because if

00:36:13.260 I pay

00:36:13.780 extra

00:36:14.220 the person

00:36:15.440 on the

00:36:15.760 other side

00:36:16.380 you know

00:36:16.740 the other

00:36:17.280 side

00:36:17.600 of the

00:36:17.800 middle

00:36:17.980 seat

00:36:18.360 do they

00:36:19.200 get a

00:36:19.620 they get

00:36:20.520 it for

00:36:20.740 free

00:36:21.100 I mean

00:36:22.440 is that

00:36:23.040 fair

00:36:23.340 and then

00:36:24.960 apparently

00:36:25.240 other airlines

00:36:26.020 are just

00:36:27.160 without extra

00:36:28.100 charge

00:36:28.620 are getting

00:36:29.060 rid of

00:36:29.460 these center

00:36:30.100 seats

00:36:30.560 and I guess

00:36:31.240 they're all

00:36:31.620 requiring

00:36:32.140 that you wear

00:36:32.680 masks

00:36:33.240 now

00:36:33.520 and I'm

00:36:34.420 thinking to

00:36:34.860 myself

00:36:35.220 if the

00:36:35.920 only thing

00:36:36.380 that came

00:36:36.760 out of

00:36:37.040 this

00:36:37.300 is that

00:36:38.480 people

00:36:38.780 could

00:36:39.040 pay

00:36:39.280 extra

00:36:39.800 to have

00:36:40.960 a seat

00:36:41.300 with nobody

00:36:41.860 in the

00:36:42.320 middle

00:36:42.520 seat

00:36:42.900 that would

00:36:44.420 be huge

00:36:45.180 do you

00:36:46.700 know

00:36:47.000 one of the

00:36:48.100 advantages

00:36:48.500 of being

00:36:49.120 my size

00:36:49.980 physically

00:36:50.600 is that

00:36:52.160 if I'm

00:36:53.400 flying in

00:36:54.100 coach

00:36:54.520 and there's

00:36:55.660 nobody in

00:36:56.120 the seat

00:36:56.400 next to

00:36:56.800 me

00:36:56.960 it's not

00:36:58.180 a lot

00:36:58.420 different

00:36:58.740 than

00:36:58.900 first

00:36:59.180 class

00:36:59.680 because

00:37:01.080 I'm

00:37:01.340 not so

00:37:01.720 big

00:37:02.080 that the

00:37:02.640 bigger

00:37:02.860 seat

00:37:03.160 makes that

00:37:03.600 much of

00:37:03.920 a difference

00:37:04.320 to me

00:37:04.660 I can

00:37:05.400 fit in

00:37:05.820 a regular

00:37:06.160 seat

00:37:06.420 just fine

00:37:06.960 so if

00:37:08.560 you give

00:37:08.860 me the

00:37:09.180 option

00:37:09.540 of flying

00:37:10.440 coach

00:37:11.020 with nobody

00:37:12.240 in the

00:37:12.520 seat next

00:37:12.940 to me

00:37:13.280 and I

00:37:13.500 have to

00:37:13.780 pay 20%

00:37:14.960 extra

00:37:15.320 there are a lot

00:37:16.620 of situations

00:37:17.300 where I'm going to

00:37:17.960 fly coach

00:37:18.640 where otherwise

00:37:19.960 I might use

00:37:20.720 my Dilbert money

00:37:21.960 to fly

00:37:23.360 first class

00:37:24.160 and it would be

00:37:25.560 sort of a waste

00:37:26.440 because it might be

00:37:27.160 a two hour flight

00:37:28.080 or something

00:37:28.520 but for a two hour

00:37:30.540 flight I'm not

00:37:31.220 going to fly

00:37:33.180 first class

00:37:33.840 even if I can

00:37:34.520 afford it

00:37:35.040 if I can have

00:37:35.640 nobody in the

00:37:36.220 middle seat

00:37:36.760 I'm not so

00:37:40.680 rich that I

00:37:41.160 throw money

00:37:41.700 away for no

00:37:42.260 reason

00:37:42.540 I'd like to

00:37:45.380 be that rich

00:37:45.900 but I don't

00:37:48.020 know if I

00:37:48.320 can ever feel

00:37:48.980 that

00:37:49.300 that I could

00:37:49.940 waste things

00:37:50.640 alright

00:37:51.360 so that's

00:37:53.540 where we're

00:37:53.840 at

00:37:54.040 if you take

00:37:54.640 the fact

00:37:55.020 that people

00:37:55.400 might be

00:37:55.880 willing to

00:37:56.580 pay a little

00:37:56.980 extra for the

00:37:57.640 middle seat

00:37:58.360 to be empty

00:37:58.960 put on top

00:38:00.220 of that

00:38:00.480 the fact

00:38:00.920 that

00:38:01.280 the fact

00:38:03.800 that

00:38:04.180 the fuel

00:38:05.900 cost

00:38:06.420 should be

00:38:07.040 coming down

00:38:07.580 a lot

00:38:08.240 for airlines

00:38:08.880 that's going

00:38:09.320 to be one

00:38:09.740 of their

00:38:09.960 biggest

00:38:10.280 costs

00:38:10.820 if not

00:38:11.200 the biggest

00:38:11.640 is fuel

00:38:12.740 the biggest

00:38:13.220 cost for

00:38:13.760 airlines

00:38:14.120 or is it

00:38:14.700 something else

00:38:16.220 it's up there

00:38:17.240 and then

00:38:19.620 add on top

00:38:20.460 of that

00:38:20.820 that probably

00:38:21.760 by year end

00:38:22.860 the resorts

00:38:24.600 are going to

00:38:25.060 be offering

00:38:25.600 amazing deals

00:38:27.040 because they

00:38:28.160 won't be

00:38:28.560 booked up

00:38:29.040 unless they

00:38:29.540 do

00:38:29.800 so I

00:38:31.420 would expect

00:38:32.060 that

00:38:32.640 here's

00:38:34.460 something I

00:38:35.100 totally agree

00:38:35.800 with Trump

00:38:36.240 on

00:38:36.500 that 2021

00:38:37.840 I think

00:38:38.620 2021

00:38:39.140 is going

00:38:39.720 to be

00:38:39.880 off the

00:38:40.320 hook

00:38:40.580 because

00:38:41.500 the people

00:38:42.760 who lost

00:38:43.400 work

00:38:44.100 were the

00:38:45.800 people who

00:38:46.300 were not

00:38:46.700 the big

00:38:47.240 buyers

00:38:47.820 to begin

00:38:48.320 with

00:38:48.580 they were

00:38:48.880 the people

00:38:49.220 who didn't

00:38:49.520 have much

00:38:49.920 money

00:38:50.220 they were

00:38:51.260 working the

00:38:51.780 kind of

00:38:52.160 job

00:38:52.620 where they

00:38:53.540 would lose

00:38:54.220 it

00:38:54.460 but they

00:38:55.600 weren't

00:38:55.880 driving

00:38:56.580 consumption

00:38:59.100 because they

00:38:59.920 were the

00:39:00.200 people who

00:39:00.520 didn't have

00:39:00.820 money

00:39:01.100 the people

00:39:02.000 who still

00:39:02.520 kept their

00:39:03.000 job

00:39:03.540 something like

00:39:05.040 70% of the

00:39:06.080 country

00:39:06.400 still got

00:39:07.540 their same

00:39:07.980 paycheck

00:39:08.460 and probably

00:39:09.980 they're the

00:39:10.720 people who

00:39:11.140 are making

00:39:11.560 more

00:39:12.020 than the

00:39:13.120 people who

00:39:13.500 lost their

00:39:13.920 jobs

00:39:14.260 so all

00:39:15.160 those people

00:39:15.600 who were

00:39:15.840 getting extra

00:39:16.620 just spent

00:39:17.760 months indoors

00:39:18.700 not spending

00:39:19.460 much money

00:39:20.040 I guarantee

00:39:22.300 you that

00:39:22.920 there are a

00:39:23.280 lot of

00:39:23.500 people very

00:39:24.140 quietly

00:39:24.720 who had

00:39:25.840 a really

00:39:26.180 good few

00:39:26.840 months

00:39:27.260 their

00:39:28.100 personal

00:39:28.600 expenses

00:39:29.120 dropped

00:39:29.680 to

00:39:29.980 practically

00:39:30.580 maybe

00:39:31.820 30%

00:39:33.240 of what

00:39:33.560 they could

00:39:33.880 have been

00:39:34.240 let's say

00:39:36.740 60% of

00:39:37.560 what they

00:39:37.820 could have

00:39:38.080 been

00:39:38.260 they probably

00:39:39.360 saved money

00:39:40.080 they're probably

00:39:41.980 at least half

00:39:42.800 of this

00:39:43.140 country

00:39:43.560 who saved

00:39:45.200 money

00:39:45.620 because they

00:39:47.480 still got

00:39:47.940 paid

00:39:48.260 and they

00:39:49.040 didn't have

00:39:49.340 anything to

00:39:49.740 spend it

00:39:50.060 on

00:39:50.240 so what

00:39:51.660 happens to

00:39:52.080 all those

00:39:52.400 people who

00:39:52.840 saved money

00:39:53.580 the people

00:39:54.480 who have

00:39:54.760 the money

00:39:55.140 when they're

00:39:56.620 free to go

00:39:57.200 spend it

00:39:57.640 again

00:39:57.920 look at all

00:39:59.120 the cars

00:39:59.760 that they

00:40:00.100 didn't buy

00:40:00.740 all the

00:40:01.200 trips they

00:40:01.740 didn't take

00:40:02.380 the clothes

00:40:03.320 they didn't

00:40:03.700 get

00:40:03.980 I mean

00:40:05.420 2021

00:40:06.620 is going

00:40:07.900 to be

00:40:08.140 off the

00:40:08.600 hook

00:40:08.940 just

00:40:10.380 if we

00:40:11.240 just go

00:40:11.600 back to

00:40:11.960 work

00:40:12.300 nothing

00:40:13.360 special

00:40:13.920 has to

00:40:14.320 happen

00:40:14.640 there is

00:40:15.600 so much

00:40:16.720 you know

00:40:17.660 untapped

00:40:18.440 buying

00:40:19.120 potential

00:40:19.840 it's going

00:40:20.620 to be

00:40:20.800 crazy

00:40:21.160 now

00:40:21.960 of course

00:40:22.860 people's

00:40:23.320 401k

00:40:24.000 their stocks

00:40:25.080 are lower

00:40:25.660 but as

00:40:26.900 of today

00:40:27.660 stocks

00:40:30.980 are having

00:40:31.460 well it looks

00:40:32.040 like it's

00:40:32.360 mixed

00:40:32.680 it was

00:40:32.940 better this

00:40:33.360 morning

00:40:33.680 a lot

00:40:34.540 of stocks

00:40:34.920 are having

00:40:35.240 a good

00:40:35.540 day

00:40:35.860 bitcoin's

00:40:37.020 up

00:40:37.280 bitcoin's

00:40:38.500 having a

00:40:38.780 good time

00:40:39.160 but

00:40:40.260 it seems

00:40:41.700 to me

00:40:42.000 that when

00:40:42.320 we get

00:40:42.680 to the

00:40:42.980 point

00:40:43.220 where the

00:40:43.540 economy

00:40:43.900 is

00:40:44.120 reopening

00:40:44.580 people

00:40:45.700 see that

00:40:46.280 bulge

00:40:46.900 of consumer

00:40:47.760 demand

00:40:48.460 this

00:40:48.780 coming

00:40:49.200 stock

00:40:50.340 market

00:40:50.680 in the

00:40:50.980 401k's

00:40:51.720 are going

00:40:51.940 to be

00:40:52.340 back

00:40:53.680 within

00:40:54.100 let's say

00:40:56.340 spinning

00:40:56.820 territory

00:40:57.300 of where

00:40:58.160 they were

00:40:58.600 and people

00:40:59.620 are going

00:40:59.840 to feel

00:41:00.100 fine

00:41:00.440 so

00:41:02.180 that's

00:41:04.940 the good

00:41:05.220 news

00:41:05.580 all right

00:41:06.900 somebody

00:41:08.740 saying

00:41:09.120 that they

00:41:09.480 saved a

00:41:09.960 ton

00:41:10.180 yeah

00:41:10.940 you know

00:41:11.500 this

00:41:13.340 coronavirus

00:41:13.780 thing

00:41:14.240 will

00:41:14.560 be

00:41:15.500 a big

00:41:16.820 hit

00:41:17.080 to me

00:41:17.780 because

00:41:18.420 I think

00:41:19.000 that my

00:41:19.340 main

00:41:19.620 source

00:41:19.960 of income

00:41:20.380 will

00:41:20.840 probably

00:41:21.500 shrink

00:41:21.900 75 to

00:41:23.400 90 percent

00:41:24.080 this year

00:41:24.540 because I

00:41:25.580 think the

00:41:25.860 small

00:41:26.080 newspapers

00:41:27.140 will just

00:41:27.780 go into

00:41:28.080 business

00:41:28.480 but

00:41:31.820 if my

00:41:33.560 income

00:41:33.980 stayed the

00:41:34.600 same

00:41:34.880 I would

00:41:35.740 have also

00:41:36.180 spent

00:41:36.740 much less

00:41:38.060 I'm not

00:41:38.920 doing

00:41:39.120 anything

00:41:39.460 so I

00:41:40.740 would have

00:41:41.120 come out

00:41:41.420 ahead but

00:41:41.940 I won't

00:41:42.620 be going

00:41:42.980 back to

00:41:43.520 a career

00:41:44.180 that I

00:41:44.720 used to

00:41:44.960 have

00:41:45.620 commercial

00:41:50.080 real estate

00:41:50.760 yeah

00:41:51.380 so somebody

00:41:52.760 saying commercial

00:41:53.460 real estate

00:41:54.000 might be

00:41:54.400 iffy

00:41:54.640 but here's

00:41:55.420 the thing

00:41:55.860 the people

00:41:57.740 who have

00:41:58.360 commercial

00:41:59.320 real estate

00:41:59.780 probably have

00:42:00.360 long term

00:42:01.240 mostly deals

00:42:03.440 so I don't

00:42:04.500 think commercial

00:42:05.220 real estate

00:42:05.700 is going to

00:42:06.060 crash right

00:42:06.820 away

00:42:07.140 I think

00:42:09.000 that's got

00:42:09.460 a little

00:42:09.820 bit of

00:42:10.120 padding

00:42:10.520 because people

00:42:11.420 are still

00:42:11.800 going to

00:42:11.980 have to

00:42:12.200 pay the

00:42:12.480 rent

00:42:12.760 even if

00:42:13.660 a lot

00:42:14.040 more

00:42:14.260 people

00:42:14.540 are

00:42:14.800 staying

00:42:15.320 home

00:42:15.580 for another

00:42:16.000 year or

00:42:16.960 two

00:42:17.180 isn't

00:42:19.480 stock

00:42:19.880 your main

00:42:20.320 source

00:42:20.660 of income

00:42:21.020 no

00:42:21.740 no it

00:42:23.360 is not

00:42:23.840 and nor

00:42:24.660 is it

00:42:25.080 even

00:42:25.420 close

00:42:26.080 anecdotally

00:42:31.020 it didn't

00:42:31.600 just hit

00:42:32.380 poor people

00:42:33.240 in my

00:42:33.860 sphere

00:42:34.180 no it

00:42:34.980 did not

00:42:35.500 just hit

00:42:36.260 poor people

00:42:36.800 but of

00:42:37.380 course they

00:42:37.760 got hit

00:42:38.120 the hardest

00:42:38.680 killed my

00:42:41.380 wife's

00:42:41.840 speaking

00:42:42.340 business

00:42:42.860 yeah

00:42:43.200 yeah

00:42:44.000 anything

00:42:44.380 with travel

00:42:45.180 or crowds

00:42:46.740 somebody

00:42:48.700 says take

00:42:49.240 the speaking

00:42:49.780 engagements

00:42:50.320 what speaking

00:42:51.020 engagements

00:42:51.700 what speaking

00:42:53.620 engagements

00:42:54.300 do you

00:42:55.340 think that

00:42:55.780 I get

00:42:56.080 speaking

00:42:56.580 engagements

00:42:57.100 now

00:42:57.500 now I'm

00:42:59.340 too

00:42:59.640 controversial

00:43:00.700 at this

00:43:01.140 point

00:43:01.400 so I'm

00:43:02.280 no longer

00:43:02.760 a good

00:43:04.420 speaker

00:43:05.080 for a

00:43:05.740 general

00:43:06.060 let's say

00:43:06.420 a corporation

00:43:07.260 event

00:43:07.740 or an

00:43:08.120 industry

00:43:08.500 event

00:43:08.900 because as

00:43:09.820 soon as

00:43:10.100 they book

00:43:10.460 me

00:43:10.620 because this

00:43:11.020 has happened

00:43:11.480 you know

00:43:11.940 I'm not

00:43:12.240 guessing

00:43:12.640 this has

00:43:13.120 happened

00:43:13.400 they'll

00:43:14.180 book me

00:43:14.680 and then

00:43:15.520 they'll tell

00:43:15.880 their members

00:43:16.360 hey we got

00:43:17.000 this Dilber 0.82

00:43:17.500 guy and

00:43:18.040 then somebody

00:43:18.480 in the

00:43:18.720 membership

00:43:19.060 will say

00:43:19.560 you know

00:43:22.260 that he

00:43:22.640 said good

00:43:23.120 things about

00:43:23.740 Trump

00:43:24.160 right

00:43:24.520 and then

00:43:26.000 the organizer

00:43:26.780 says I

00:43:28.140 didn't know

00:43:28.680 that

00:43:29.020 and then

00:43:30.060 they call

00:43:30.440 me and

00:43:30.760 say you

00:43:31.200 know

00:43:31.540 we lost

00:43:32.940 our budget

00:43:33.420 we can't

00:43:34.280 hire you

00:43:34.680 anymore

00:43:35.040 so I

00:43:35.720 mean I've

00:43:36.000 been through

00:43:36.380 this

00:43:36.760 so no

00:43:38.460 I can't

00:43:38.860 do speaking

00:43:39.360 that's not

00:43:40.020 on the table

00:43:40.440 nor can I

00:43:41.340 make a

00:43:41.660 Dilber movie

00:43:42.300 same reason

00:43:43.540 too much

00:43:45.120 you know

00:43:45.620 Hollywood

00:43:45.960 hatred

00:43:46.520 so most

00:43:49.040 lines of

00:43:50.160 my normal

00:43:51.120 business

00:43:51.520 have been

00:43:51.920 closed out

00:43:52.520 for me

00:43:52.880 for different

00:43:53.300 reasons

00:43:53.700 but

00:43:55.120 I will be

00:43:56.380 fine

00:43:56.860 don't worry

00:43:57.680 about it

00:43:58.660 somebody says

00:43:59.760 you make

00:44:00.120 tons on

00:44:00.760 books

00:44:01.160 that's not

00:44:01.880 true actually

00:44:02.420 so

00:44:03.100 the books

00:44:05.100 that I

00:44:05.620 write are

00:44:06.060 actually a

00:44:06.580 trivial part

00:44:07.240 of my

00:44:07.460 income

00:44:07.800 I think

00:44:09.260 even the

00:44:10.060 bestsellers

00:44:10.700 they're actually

00:44:11.660 kind of

00:44:12.020 trivial

00:44:12.380 most people

00:44:15.200 don't realize

00:44:15.740 that

00:44:16.000 the books

00:44:17.440 that make

00:44:17.820 money

00:44:18.160 are the

00:44:19.100 ones that

00:44:19.540 just are

00:44:20.040 just runaway

00:44:21.280 bestsellers

00:44:22.040 but they

00:44:23.120 make pretty

00:44:23.820 much all

00:44:24.260 of the

00:44:24.480 money

00:44:24.720 once you

00:44:26.100 get to

00:44:26.600 well you

00:44:27.220 were on

00:44:27.500 the bestseller

00:44:28.020 list for a

00:44:28.720 few weeks

00:44:29.240 you know

00:44:30.040 but at the

00:44:30.460 bottom

00:44:30.840 and they

00:44:31.700 fell off

00:44:32.260 after a

00:44:32.680 few weeks

00:44:33.160 if you're

00:44:34.280 that kind

00:44:34.740 of author

00:44:35.160 that's not

00:44:36.560 a lot of

00:44:36.820 money

00:44:37.040 and

00:44:38.220 my early

00:44:39.980 Dilbert books

00:44:41.080 were in

00:44:41.900 that other

00:44:42.660 category where

00:44:43.480 it's just

00:44:43.800 crazy money

00:44:44.580 but that

00:44:45.320 was like

00:44:45.620 20 years

00:44:46.180 ago

00:44:46.420 the

00:44:47.260 current

00:44:48.340 publishing

00:44:48.840 even though

00:44:49.560 I write

00:44:49.900 bestsellers

00:44:50.620 they don't

00:44:51.800 they don't

00:44:52.420 sit at the

00:44:53.080 top of the

00:44:53.460 bestseller list

00:44:54.220 for five

00:44:55.000 years

00:44:55.360 those make

00:44:55.920 money

00:44:56.180 but maybe

00:44:57.520 one percent

00:44:58.360 or something

00:44:59.740 of books

00:45:00.340 that get

00:45:00.580 published

00:45:00.960 are big

00:45:01.380 money makers

00:45:01.960 I'm probably

00:45:03.400 in the top

00:45:04.080 five percent

00:45:06.420 I'm just

00:45:08.140 guessing here

00:45:08.820 just off the

00:45:09.620 top of my

00:45:10.080 head

00:45:10.280 I would

00:45:11.140 say that

00:45:11.700 my books

00:45:12.160 sell in

00:45:12.660 the top

00:45:13.000 five percent

00:45:13.780 of books

00:45:14.480 fairly

00:45:15.880 dependably

00:45:16.480 but that's

00:45:17.900 not a lot

00:45:18.240 of money

00:45:18.560 in terms

00:45:21.160 of the

00:45:21.800 big picture

00:45:22.320 cartoon on

00:45:23.760 TV makes

00:45:24.640 no money

00:45:25.260 even though

00:45:26.280 it still

00:45:26.640 runs on

00:45:27.080 TV

00:45:27.380 because

00:45:27.980 Hollywood

00:45:28.780 makes a

00:45:29.300 deal

00:45:29.540 where after

00:45:30.660 a while

00:45:30.960 they keep

00:45:31.380 all the

00:45:31.640 money

00:45:31.860 so that's

00:45:32.320 where that's

00:45:32.860 at

00:45:33.100 anyway

00:45:34.620 just in case

00:45:35.640 you were

00:45:35.840 wondering

00:45:36.080 not that it

00:45:37.060 matters to

00:45:37.660 you

00:45:37.940 but I do

00:45:40.000 have options

00:45:40.480 so I'm not

00:45:40.920 complaining

00:45:41.400 if any of

00:45:43.040 this sounded

00:45:43.440 like a

00:45:43.920 complaint

00:45:44.440 let me

00:45:45.120 clarify

00:45:45.560 I am in

00:45:47.200 a much

00:45:47.660 better

00:45:47.940 situation

00:45:48.580 than 99

00:45:49.560 percent of

00:45:50.160 the world

00:45:50.500 I do not

00:45:51.860 lose sight

00:45:52.620 of that

00:45:53.080 so I'm

00:45:53.920 not going

00:45:54.200 to bitch 1.00

00:45:54.680 about

00:45:55.520 something

00:45:56.440 that happened

00:45:56.820 to me

00:45:57.240 when I'm

00:45:58.260 watching the

00:45:58.740 world melt

00:45:59.260 down

00:45:59.580 like that's

00:46:00.440 not where

00:46:00.800 I'm at

00:46:01.220 but it is

00:46:02.360 also just

00:46:02.900 true

00:46:03.300 that many

00:46:04.680 of us

00:46:05.020 will be

00:46:05.740 affected

00:46:06.120 in our

00:46:06.460 different ways

00:46:07.020 and it's

00:46:07.260 just a fact

00:46:07.820 alright

00:46:08.780 what's my

00:46:13.780 big overhead

00:46:14.480 oh

00:46:15.840 well

00:46:16.880 that's a

00:46:18.720 longer story

00:46:19.380 living is

00:46:21.180 expensive

00:46:21.660 but my

00:46:23.140 property tax

00:46:24.240 is probably

00:46:24.640 more than

00:46:25.440 my property

00:46:27.380 tax on my

00:46:27.980 house

00:46:28.320 now I'm not

00:46:29.240 going to say

00:46:29.520 this

00:46:29.780 sounds like

00:46:30.760 a dick 0.75

00:46:31.080 I'll talk

00:46:31.900 to you

00:46:32.300 tonight

00:46:32.780 man

00:46:33.220 I'

00:46:44.540 gegenüber

00:46:45.700 so

00:46:46.160 you

00:46:46.240 don't

00:46:46.400 see

00:46:47.020 at

00:46:48.480 here

00:46:48.840 you

00:46:49.100 have

00:46:49.460 on

00:46:49.860 my

00:46:50.720 family

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 06, 2020

Episode 958 Scott Adams： Grab Your Beverage and Buckle Up

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