Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 962 Scott Adams： No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy

00:00:00.000 Sure, I'm a little bit late this morning, but I think that just built the anticipation.

00:00:14.660 How many of you were looking at the clock, it was 7 a.m. or 10 a.m. on your coast, and you said,

00:00:21.200 he's usually right on time. Well, I was here and ready, but I got caught up in something.

00:00:31.100 Hold on, stay there, don't go anywhere. Come right back with notes. Yes.

00:00:40.540 And, well, I didn't mean to panic you. So, we have much fun to talk about.

00:00:53.320 Today's going to be a good one. I guarantee it. But to enjoy it fully, you must be prepared.

00:01:01.220 And to be prepared, you don't need much. All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:01:08.920 a tanker, chalice, or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:14.800 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:01:17.160 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dope mean hit of the day,

00:01:20.960 the thing that makes everything better, including the damn pandemic.

00:01:25.600 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now. Go.

00:01:28.240 Yep. Yep. I can feel my coronavirus antibodies forming in my body, and I haven't even been exposed.

00:01:41.680 That's how good the coffee is. I hope yours is good, too.

00:01:45.700 So, you know how I've been telling you a number of times that there's just something weird about the simulation

00:01:55.700 and my connection to it.

00:02:01.060 And I keep telling you that although I'm pretty sure there are 7.6 billion people in the world,

00:02:07.280 for reasons I don't quite understand, I keep finding myself in the middle of major stories.

00:02:15.820 And you don't know how often this happens, because I can't tell you all the times that I get pulled into

00:02:20.980 like an international, not so much international, sometimes, but more national, but sometimes international.

00:02:30.000 I tend to get pulled into a lot of stuff, because people just say,

00:02:35.440 this guy might be able to help, or he was interested, or I just know him, I'll just tell him something.

00:02:42.280 And so I find myself drawn into these giant stories.

00:02:46.660 I don't know how to explain it, but it happens so often. Let me give you an example.

00:02:51.960 The other day, somebody sent me a book.

00:02:57.140 And it's fairly common for people to send books to other authors.

00:03:02.680 Usually they're looking for a book blurb, or sometimes they think you'll be interested.

00:03:06.900 Maybe they're trying to strike up some kind of a connection.

00:03:10.680 But it's very common for authors to go to their mailbox and unsolicited somebody has sent them a book.

00:03:16.680 Now, I guess there are many of them that, of course, I can't read them,

00:03:20.200 and I don't always even know why they sent them to me in some cases.

00:03:24.200 So I sort of just put them in a pile, and I look at them once in a while,

00:03:28.500 and I think, maybe I'll read something in that pile, and I hardly ever get around to it.

00:03:32.340 So I get this book, and it was called The Plague of Corruption.

00:03:38.120 And I looked at it, and I thought, huh, I wonder why somebody thinks I need to look at this.

00:03:42.360 You might recognize that name, because there's a viral video that YouTube keeps taking down

00:03:48.520 from a Dr. Judy Mikovits, and the book, anyway, is from co-author Kent Heckin-Lively.

00:03:57.540 And so I didn't think much of it at the time.

00:04:00.880 I'd never heard of the video at the time.

00:04:02.680 I just put the book with my other books, and actually I had it sitting on a little stand.

00:04:09.680 I guess I'd like the cover or something.

00:04:12.660 So I didn't actually put it on the pile with the other books.

00:04:15.000 It was sort of featured, but I wasn't really planning on reading it.

00:04:19.840 And then the YouTube thing blows up, and it gets more interesting,

00:04:25.060 because you're thinking to yourself, well, Scott, you got something in the mail.

00:04:29.800 That's not really like being pulled into the middle of a major story.

00:04:33.680 That's not really like that at all.

00:04:35.460 Well, but I'm not done yet.

00:04:39.820 Didn't you know there's another part of the story?

00:04:41.900 Of course there is.

00:04:43.280 So the other day, maybe a week after I got the book,

00:04:47.040 and I had already talked about the video a little bit on Periscope,

00:04:50.740 there's a note in my mailbox without an envelope.

00:04:54.600 Now, if you get a note without an envelope in your mailbox,

00:05:00.800 it means that somebody knows where you live,

00:05:03.920 and they didn't need to put a stamp on it.

00:05:07.420 So somebody walked up to my mailbox and physically put a note in my mailbox.

00:05:13.060 Now, that's also not the first time that's happened.

00:05:15.360 Again, if you're in the public eye, it's not that strange.

00:05:20.760 I'll open my front door, and there'll be a package with no postage or a note, an envelope.

00:05:28.320 It's fairly common.

00:05:29.500 I've had people knock on my door just to talk to me.

00:05:33.560 It doesn't happen often, but every now and then.

00:05:36.820 It's rare, but it happens.

00:05:37.920 So I get this note without an envelope, and the note is from Kent Heckenlively,

00:05:45.540 the co-author of the book, who apparently lives close enough to my house

00:05:50.900 that he knows which one is my house.

00:05:54.100 And he drove over and stuck the note in my, so you can't see it,

00:06:00.060 but that's the note in the book.

00:06:02.740 And, you know, he asked me to call him to talk about it.

00:06:08.100 Now, what are the odds that this would be this gigantic story,

00:06:11.900 at least on the Internet it's a gigantic story, not in the mainstream press,

00:06:15.660 but, you know, I've talked about it, it becomes this big thing,

00:06:19.220 and then the author lives in my town and drops a note in my mailbox,

00:06:22.820 hey, do you want to talk?

00:06:23.960 I mean, really, there's something weird going on, isn't there?

00:06:27.500 I mean, I wish I could tell you the other instances in which I get drawn into big stories.

00:06:35.280 I mean, it's happened, I think, three times this week.

00:06:37.600 Most of them I can't tell you about.

00:06:39.760 But it's crazy.

00:06:41.100 I mean, it's just crazy.

00:06:43.300 So, anyway, I've been asked a few times on the Locals platform

00:06:47.880 where subscribers get to see extra stuff from me.

00:06:52.940 And some people asked me to comment on this, not knowing, of course,

00:06:57.300 presumably not knowing that I had already commented on it.

00:06:59.980 So I'm going to comment again, because I've had more time to think about it.

00:07:05.460 And it goes like this.

00:07:08.160 So Christina and I were talking about the video.

00:07:10.560 She saw it separately.

00:07:12.800 And when she listened to it, she found it very persuasive and compelling.

00:07:17.580 And I said, that's funny, because I felt the opposite.

00:07:24.260 I do think there's plenty in it that's true and also quite concerning.

00:07:30.760 But not really that far from what you already assumed to be true about big pharmaceutical companies.

00:07:36.760 But then there's sort of another level of, let's say, allegation stuff that I don't know that I can go that far.

00:07:49.240 So I won't even repeat the level that I'm not sure has credibility.

00:07:53.720 But there's certainly a base of credible and concerning things there.

00:07:58.260 I just think maybe it goes too far.

00:08:00.220 So my own take on it is that I did not find it credible, while Christina listened to the whole thing and found it credible.

00:08:10.260 Now, she and I usually think similarly enough that I was really surprised.

00:08:18.500 And I thought, and we talked about it in the car, and I said, really?

00:08:22.500 You found that compelling?

00:08:24.220 Because I was getting the opposite vibe, like really strongly.

00:08:28.120 And then it came out that she listened to it, whereas I watched it.

00:08:35.900 Have any of you had that experience?

00:08:38.700 So the viral video about the plague of corruption.

00:08:42.260 Has anybody listened to it without watching it?

00:08:46.660 And if so, was it more compelling when you listened than when you watched?

00:08:50.980 Because, I have to be honest, the visual of it, you know how we're visual creatures, and you make assumptions about people's credibility by their body language, their mannerisms,

00:09:06.060 and probably some of the wrong stuff, too, like their gender, their age, their ethnicity, because we're all biased, terrible people.

00:09:13.620 So even if you try not to let those things influence you, you're still human, right?

00:09:19.320 So you can try really hard not to be that kind of person, but we are pattern recognition animals, and you can't really turn it off.

00:09:26.980 And so, my experience of watching it was that she wasn't credible.

00:09:33.600 And when I say not credible, I don't mean she's not right.

00:09:36.160 That's a completely different question, because I can't judge if she's right.

00:09:41.100 How would I?

00:09:42.020 I mean, really, do I have some kind of independent information that I can look at her claims and say, well, based on my research?

00:09:49.300 No, nothing like that.

00:09:51.040 It is purely looking at the individual, somewhat the same way you would do, let's say, a job interview if you were hiring somebody.

00:09:58.700 You would judge them not just by what their, you know, their resume said.

00:10:03.900 You would judge them not just by the facts of the person.

00:10:07.580 You would also judge them by the vibe, wouldn't you?

00:10:11.340 And you'd say, I don't know, there was something about that person I wasn't quite comfortable with.

00:10:16.820 I can't put my finger on it, but there was somebody with the same skills, and I am comfortable with them.

00:10:21.540 I'm going to go with them.

00:10:22.960 So it's completely natural that we make these judgments, and the visual is very important.

00:10:27.760 So in my, and I don't know how to say this, because I don't want to, like, just be mindlessly insulting or something,

00:10:38.660 but I found Dr. Judy Mikovits not persuasive, her vibe, if you will.

00:10:48.040 There was something that was just triggering me, and I don't know what it is.

00:10:51.280 I don't want to think that it was gender, because I don't have, you know, any experience in my life of thinking that women are less credible,

00:10:59.720 you know, if they're talking scientifically, or it's the field that they're experts in.

00:11:04.300 I've never had that thought before.

00:11:07.600 So I don't think it's that, but, you know, you always have to be on guard for that, right?

00:11:11.240 So that's my take.

00:11:14.920 Now, I would urge this, that if you are going to decide whether you buy into this,

00:11:22.320 you should Google the names of at least Dr. Judy Mikovits.

00:11:26.480 You should Google her and see if you can find at least the counter-arguments.

00:11:30.520 Now, what I haven't seen yet, which is weird, and maybe this matters,

00:11:36.980 where are the people who are, let's say, the accused,

00:11:41.380 because, you know, Tony Fauci is a big character in her accusations.

00:11:46.200 So there are executives, there are companies, there are named individuals

00:11:50.620 who have been alleged to be in bad behavior.

00:11:54.560 Here's what's missing.

00:11:55.860 Those same people who have been accused doing a fact check on it

00:12:01.640 and saying, um, that fact's not right.

00:12:05.420 Uh, that's out of context.

00:12:08.180 Now, have you seen it?

00:12:12.080 Now, somebody says, I'm seeing a URL there, but I don't want to say it.

00:12:16.760 So that might exist by now.

00:12:19.840 But here's what I would, uh, here's what I would caution.

00:12:22.880 The credibility you should apply to this when you haven't heard the other side

00:12:28.480 is none, right?

00:12:31.520 The appropriate amount of credibility is none

00:12:35.340 if you haven't heard the other side.

00:12:38.020 And that should, that's for everything, right?

00:12:40.480 There's no, there should be no exception to this.

00:12:43.600 If you haven't heard the other side, no credibility.

00:12:47.000 But, what if you wait a few months

00:12:51.700 and it's a big viral thing and it's impossible to ignore

00:12:55.100 and still the people who have been accused just don't comment.

00:13:00.480 But instead, YouTube just keeps taking the accusations off of YouTube

00:13:04.380 and the internet is trying to scrub it.

00:13:07.680 What would that tell you

00:13:09.160 if the other side doesn't fact check it?

00:13:12.700 Because how hard would it be?

00:13:14.060 How hard would it be to put a little statement that says,

00:13:18.240 you know, Dr. Judy Mikovits made the following claim.

00:13:22.180 Uh, here's the document that shows that didn't happen.

00:13:25.000 Or, I was there, I promise you that didn't happen.

00:13:28.940 Where's that?

00:13:30.680 Kind of missing, isn't it?

00:13:32.340 Now, it could be it just takes a while.

00:13:34.540 It could be that the legal counsel for all involved said,

00:13:38.400 hey, it's just better just to let it go.

00:13:40.820 Like, you know, you don't want to give it attention.

00:13:43.260 If you respond, you give it attention.

00:13:47.520 But, that's a pretty good strategy, actually.

00:13:52.380 Oh, Forbes has an article on it today.

00:13:54.460 Good, I'm going to go check that out.

00:13:57.740 So, here's what I would expect.

00:14:00.540 So, I would expect if an independent, credible reporter dug into it,

00:14:06.120 that what they would find is that a whole bunch of things she says are true.

00:14:09.360 But, on top of the truth, there's probably a level of interpretation,

00:14:16.620 which is where things are going to be interesting.

00:14:19.640 So, I'd like to see that Forbes article and see what they say.

00:14:22.740 All right.

00:14:23.460 Let's talk about a few other things.

00:14:24.740 I found out recently that General Flynn is connected to me on Twitter.

00:14:34.500 It's such a small world.

00:14:36.600 I've never had any connection with him.

00:14:38.560 I've tweeted about his situation a number of times,

00:14:41.080 and that probably got his attention.

00:14:42.560 But, so I sent him a note today.

00:14:48.000 And, you know, I just sent him a congratulation DM.

00:14:50.960 I don't know, you know, what are the odds that General Flynn checks his DMs

00:14:55.520 and reads them all, especially on a day like this.

00:14:58.240 Probably got quite a few.

00:15:00.120 But, I made him the following offer,

00:15:02.300 which is that if he decides to write a book,

00:15:05.080 I can hook him up with a top literary agent.

00:15:07.940 He probably has one already.

00:15:08.940 And, if he writes a book, I'll tweet it out and give him some attention.

00:15:15.240 Because, here's how I feel about this.

00:15:17.800 I don't think justice has yet been served.

00:15:20.940 Do you?

00:15:22.340 I feel like justice was half served,

00:15:25.640 but you can't really make up for the time you took from him.

00:15:28.860 There's just no way to fix that.

00:15:30.760 That time is just gone.

00:15:32.360 But, it's also the past.

00:15:34.160 We don't dwell on the past.

00:15:36.320 But, what about the financial hit?

00:15:38.940 I mean, it's not really justice if he comes out of this at a certain age,

00:15:44.040 you know, sort of approaching retirement age,

00:15:46.560 and he's been wiped out.

00:15:48.800 That's not justice.

00:15:51.580 Justice would be a $10 million book deal,

00:15:54.500 which I will help him promote the shit out of it,

00:15:58.780 to sell that thing onto the top of the bestseller list.

00:16:01.900 He goes, wouldn't you like to hear his story?

00:16:05.080 Oh, yes, you would.

00:16:07.420 You would like to hear his story.

00:16:09.520 I don't know if he'll ever be free to tell it.

00:16:11.980 Maybe he just can't tell the story for a variety of reasons.

00:16:15.200 But, I thought I'd put the offer out there,

00:16:17.300 because in this small world,

00:16:18.760 somehow I had a direct channel

00:16:20.200 to the guy who's the biggest story in the country.

00:16:23.580 And, if he reads my DM,

00:16:26.740 and if he decides he wants to do a book,

00:16:30.060 I'll help him out.

00:16:32.320 All right.

00:16:35.500 Someone also on the locals' platform

00:16:38.960 had this idea.

00:16:42.640 And, it's a really good one.

00:16:44.320 So, let me run this one by you.

00:16:45.620 All right, so here's the idea,

00:16:47.720 that the CNN types and the anti-Trumpers

00:16:52.480 are trying to make whatever they can

00:16:55.280 out of this Flynn thing.

00:16:56.480 They're trying to spin it any way they can

00:16:58.500 so it's not so bad.

00:17:00.680 And, one of the things that you're hearing them say is,

00:17:04.080 he pled guilty.

00:17:06.540 So, how could it be fake

00:17:08.480 if there was a guilty plea?

00:17:12.260 And, so, that's actually a pretty good point

00:17:15.700 for the low-information watchers

00:17:18.520 if they're just trying to convince their base

00:17:20.960 that it wasn't as bad as people say,

00:17:23.840 even though it was as bad

00:17:25.920 as the worst thing you could think.

00:17:27.560 It was actually a coup.

00:17:29.880 That's what it was.

00:17:34.660 But, here was the suggestion.

00:17:37.360 When somebody says,

00:17:38.640 yeah, but he pled guilty,

00:17:39.740 you can't ignore that.

00:17:43.520 And, here's the response to that.

00:17:45.840 Are you ready?

00:17:47.620 So did the Central Park Five.

00:17:51.720 It's pretty good, isn't it?

00:17:53.620 Now, I'd forgotten this,

00:17:55.300 and I think it's true.

00:17:56.460 Do a fact check on me that.

00:17:57.780 I want to make sure that's true.

00:17:59.260 But, did not the Central Park Five confess?

00:18:03.080 And then, it must have been

00:18:04.660 a coerced confession or something.

00:18:06.140 And, of course,

00:18:09.140 Flynn's guilty plea was also coerced.

00:18:13.020 It was coerced.

00:18:15.420 So, how is that different?

00:18:18.380 So, just try this out.

00:18:20.060 So, the suggestion on locals

00:18:22.280 was to try this out

00:18:23.560 because, apparently, it's fun.

00:18:26.320 You can induce cognitive dissonance.

00:18:29.700 Now, I've told you how to spot

00:18:30.860 cognitive dissonance before,

00:18:32.400 but let me remind you.

00:18:34.080 You can induce cognitive dissonance

00:18:36.140 when you get people,

00:18:37.900 you watch them carefully,

00:18:39.280 the eyes and the face especially,

00:18:42.020 and they'll actually go into

00:18:44.000 a reboot mode

00:18:44.980 where there's a vacant expression

00:18:47.620 for a moment

00:18:48.320 and it lasts a little bit too long

00:18:50.740 for the social situation.

00:18:52.880 So, it would be like this,

00:18:53.860 you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,

00:18:55.460 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:18:57.040 Well, you know, Flynn,

00:18:58.920 you know, he pled guilty.

00:19:01.600 So, you know, he got that.

00:19:03.640 And then you say,

00:19:04.960 so did the Central Park Five.

00:19:06.820 They were coerced too.

00:19:08.900 Then look at the face

00:19:09.900 and what you should see

00:19:11.580 is the vacant expression

00:19:13.980 that lasts too long like...

00:19:17.680 And then the next thing

00:19:19.800 that comes out of their mouth,

00:19:21.480 if it's cognitive dissonance,

00:19:23.740 will be nonsense.

00:19:25.680 The words will fit together

00:19:27.040 like a sentence,

00:19:28.520 but you'll hear it

00:19:29.500 and you'll say,

00:19:30.680 I didn't even know

00:19:31.660 what that sentence meant

00:19:33.040 because it sounded like nonsense.

00:19:35.740 So, the way cognitive dissonance works

00:19:37.600 is that the person

00:19:38.340 is trying to find a way

00:19:39.300 that they're still right

00:19:40.300 and that they understand the world

00:19:42.160 even though clearly

00:19:42.980 they're wrong and they didn't.

00:19:44.840 And so, they invent

00:19:45.920 a little patch

00:19:47.360 sort of on the fly.

00:19:49.520 It's like a little logic patch

00:19:51.120 to connect things

00:19:52.560 they shouldn't connect.

00:19:53.440 And that logic patch

00:19:54.940 will just be ridiculous

00:19:56.020 because you can't connect

00:19:57.300 things that don't connect.

00:19:59.460 And then their brain reboots.

00:20:01.260 So, try that at home.

00:20:02.760 Look for the blank stare

00:20:04.800 that lasts too long.

00:20:07.040 It might only be two seconds,

00:20:08.980 but in a social situation

00:20:10.460 that's going to look too long.

00:20:13.940 All right.

00:20:15.820 Rasmussen has the Rasmussen poll.

00:20:19.300 And on Twitter,

00:20:20.860 it's a great account to follow.

00:20:22.620 If you don't follow Rasmussen,

00:20:24.740 the polling company,

00:20:26.300 on Twitter,

00:20:26.960 you're missing something

00:20:27.760 because their social media game

00:20:30.200 is very non-corporate.

00:20:34.140 You know,

00:20:34.360 Rasmussen knows how to use Twitter

00:20:36.940 the way Twitter should be used.

00:20:39.480 You know,

00:20:39.640 not your dumb little corporate

00:20:41.040 tweets like,

00:20:42.920 well, we said this

00:20:43.800 and we're announcing this.

00:20:45.440 But, you know,

00:20:45.920 they're funny and engaging

00:20:47.260 and a little provocative.

00:20:48.400 So, the Rasmussen account

00:20:51.120 is fun to follow.

00:20:52.460 And here's a little observation

00:20:54.280 that will blow your mind.

00:20:56.460 Do you remember the 2018

00:20:57.540 midterm election?

00:20:59.280 And all the smart people said

00:21:00.660 probably the reason

00:21:02.580 that the Democrats did well

00:21:05.580 and the Republicans didn't

00:21:06.900 was probably health care

00:21:07.860 because that was such a big issue.

00:21:10.020 People prefer the Democrats

00:21:11.240 for health care.

00:21:11.940 But, as Rasmussen determined

00:21:15.060 when they did some polling

00:21:16.540 to dig down on

00:21:17.580 what happened

00:21:18.720 in that midterm election in 2018,

00:21:20.720 they found out

00:21:21.340 that the biggest issue

00:21:22.580 for people who ended up,

00:21:25.040 you know,

00:21:25.700 voting, let's say,

00:21:27.260 against the Republicans

00:21:29.100 was that Trump

00:21:30.920 was credibly accused

00:21:32.740 of working for Russia.

00:21:38.540 So, we're all looking

00:21:40.160 at these midterms like that

00:21:41.620 told us something.

00:21:42.400 It's like, well,

00:21:43.600 you know,

00:21:43.880 the Democrats are on a roll.

00:21:47.360 You know,

00:21:47.900 they won those midterms.

00:21:50.080 So, you know,

00:21:51.480 that tells us something.

00:21:53.320 Here's what it tells us.

00:21:54.980 It tells us how powerful

00:21:56.240 fake news is.

00:21:57.900 Because that Russian collusion

00:22:00.140 wasn't true.

00:22:02.540 Didn't happen.

00:22:04.000 There's no evidence of it.

00:22:05.360 And now,

00:22:06.460 all the people involved

00:22:07.480 are admitting that freely.

00:22:08.760 There was no evidence

00:22:10.440 that the president

00:22:11.340 or members of his group

00:22:13.340 were actively doing anything.

00:22:16.220 There's evidence

00:22:16.920 that Russia was playing

00:22:17.880 with our election,

00:22:18.660 but that was on them.

00:22:19.780 That's not on Trump.

00:22:21.740 So, it turns out

00:22:22.960 that we're coming

00:22:25.480 into an election cycle

00:22:26.660 in which

00:22:27.300 the Russia collusion story,

00:22:30.380 the biggest thing

00:22:31.480 that the Democrats

00:22:32.580 had going for them

00:22:33.660 in the midterm,

00:22:35.160 just blew up

00:22:36.200 in their faces.

00:22:38.860 So, you know,

00:22:40.040 I'm not sure that

00:22:40.800 in a presidential election year

00:22:42.300 that policies even matter.

00:22:44.780 I mean, I really don't.

00:22:46.220 I don't think anybody's policy

00:22:47.700 is going to make a difference.

00:22:49.780 I think people are voting

00:22:50.640 for personalities this time

00:22:52.040 for president.

00:22:53.780 All right.

00:22:54.880 Seattle did something

00:22:56.700 interesting and smart,

00:22:57.940 and I would love

00:22:58.840 to see other places do that.

00:23:00.880 They closed 20 miles

00:23:02.740 of streets to traffic

00:23:04.480 so residents can exercise

00:23:06.820 and bike on them.

00:23:08.780 So, instead of having

00:23:09.940 your narrow little sidewalks

00:23:11.980 where everybody

00:23:12.520 would be bunching up,

00:23:13.820 they just closed

00:23:14.540 the street to traffic.

00:23:15.660 I think the locals

00:23:16.500 can get out of their garage

00:23:18.380 and get back in and stuff.

00:23:20.200 So, if you're a local,

00:23:21.300 you can drive slowly

00:23:22.600 on the street.

00:23:23.760 But they closed it

00:23:25.960 and just make it

00:23:26.800 a big exercise place

00:23:28.980 so everybody can get outside.

00:23:30.280 somewhat safely.

00:23:31.900 And I say to myself,

00:23:33.620 I want that.

00:23:35.360 I mean, I've already

00:23:35.960 suggested that in my town.

00:23:37.940 So, I've already, you know,

00:23:39.300 emailed somebody

00:23:40.080 to get that idea

00:23:41.640 into the powers that be locally.

00:23:45.960 I would expect my local town

00:23:48.180 to close their main street

00:23:49.340 because it's just too obviously

00:23:50.840 a good idea.

00:23:52.320 It's just really obviously

00:23:54.000 a good idea.

00:23:54.820 If you saw the main street

00:23:55.880 where I live,

00:23:57.240 you know,

00:23:57.520 a number of restaurants,

00:23:58.680 and there's plenty

00:24:00.440 of roads and parking

00:24:01.820 around that street,

00:24:03.160 you know,

00:24:03.520 it's one block away.

00:24:04.860 It's the perfect solution.

00:24:07.620 So, I'm glad Seattle

00:24:08.500 pulled the trigger on that.

00:24:13.380 So, you're probably watching

00:24:14.800 the news that the

00:24:15.820 San Antonio City Council

00:24:17.560 voted unanimously.

00:24:19.500 I don't know how often

00:24:20.740 they vote unanimously

00:24:21.780 on anything,

00:24:22.560 but they voted unanimously

00:24:23.420 to approve a resolution

00:24:24.660 labeling the term,

00:24:26.720 quote,

00:24:27.140 Chinese virus

00:24:28.280 as hate speech.

00:24:31.280 And they encouraged people

00:24:32.680 to report it

00:24:33.420 to authorities.

00:24:35.800 Yeah, I know what you think

00:24:36.880 about that.

00:24:38.300 I know what you think

00:24:39.440 about that.

00:24:41.480 To which I ask

00:24:42.560 the following question.

00:24:43.440 Can I still refer

00:24:45.640 to Mexican drug cartels?

00:24:48.500 Or should I just call

00:24:49.800 them drug cartels?

00:24:51.980 I can call them

00:24:52.920 Mexican drug cartels,

00:24:54.140 can't I?

00:24:55.460 Because wouldn't that be

00:24:56.780 just as racist?

00:24:58.440 Because there are a lot

00:25:00.120 of people in Mexico

00:25:00.880 and as a percentage,

00:25:03.280 very few of them

00:25:04.380 are members of a cartel.

00:25:06.360 So, when you say

00:25:07.560 Mexican drug cartel,

00:25:09.260 you're kind of throwing

00:25:10.000 all Mexicans under the bus, 0.98

00:25:11.340 aren't you?

00:25:11.660 No, you're not.

00:25:13.140 Because everybody knows

00:25:14.120 you're talking about

00:25:14.740 just the cartel.

00:25:16.380 Likewise,

00:25:17.200 when people say

00:25:18.160 Chinese virus,

00:25:19.800 I don't think

00:25:20.740 they're blaming

00:25:21.280 the citizens of China.

00:25:23.880 I don't think

00:25:24.820 anybody's saying

00:25:25.620 we got this virus

00:25:27.460 because you're Chinese.

00:25:30.080 I mean,

00:25:30.320 everybody understands

00:25:31.320 they're referring

00:25:32.180 to where it came from,

00:25:33.040 but I have a suggestion

00:25:35.020 to make everyone happy.

00:25:37.820 Somebody says,

00:25:38.720 don't be racist, Scott.

00:25:40.100 Oh, no, I'm not.

00:25:40.900 Watch this.

00:25:42.740 Watch my next move.

00:25:46.200 Now, you said it

00:25:47.900 in the comments.

00:25:49.240 It's the China virus.

00:25:52.060 China is a place.

00:25:55.280 Chinese could be referring

00:25:57.500 to a place or a people.

00:25:59.600 A little bit ambiguous.

00:26:01.500 A little bit open

00:26:02.220 to interpretation.

00:26:03.680 And so you can see

00:26:04.340 why the people

00:26:05.960 who want to make

00:26:06.840 something of it

00:26:07.460 will say,

00:26:07.860 oh, you're talking

00:26:08.480 about people.

00:26:09.080 Why are you saying

00:26:10.080 Chinese?

00:26:11.840 Which I say

00:26:12.820 is not a terrible point.

00:26:16.080 Why couldn't we call it

00:26:17.280 the China virus?

00:26:19.100 Because China 0.94

00:26:19.880 clearly

00:26:21.580 is talking about

00:26:23.460 the government

00:26:24.360 and the place.

00:26:26.120 And that's unambiguous.

00:26:27.920 Chinese.

00:26:28.520 I hear it too.

00:26:31.320 And while I'm sure

00:26:34.800 the people saying it

00:26:35.960 are not saying it

00:26:36.700 for some weird,

00:26:37.440 racist reason,

00:26:38.880 why bother?

00:26:41.620 If you can just call it

00:26:42.580 the China flu,

00:26:43.560 there's no ambiguity.

00:26:45.580 Why not?

00:26:46.220 It tells you

00:26:46.600 where it came from.

00:26:48.740 All right.

00:26:49.400 So that would be

00:26:50.160 my suggestion

00:26:50.780 to call it

00:26:51.180 the China flu.

00:26:51.800 However,

00:26:52.740 I bristled

00:26:53.360 at the notion

00:26:54.160 that it was

00:26:56.200 hate speech

00:26:56.900 because I've done

00:26:58.800 so much worse

00:26:59.820 talking about

00:27:00.880 China's government.

00:27:02.540 I always hasten

00:27:04.320 to say

00:27:04.760 that the people

00:27:05.400 are awesome.

00:27:06.420 I love the people,

00:27:07.720 the citizens,

00:27:09.740 great people.

00:27:11.100 The government,

00:27:12.460 pure evil.

00:27:14.600 Pure evil.

00:27:16.160 Oh, I see some people

00:27:17.020 like China virus.

00:27:19.000 Yeah,

00:27:19.240 the beauty of China virus

00:27:20.420 is there's not a,

00:27:21.620 I was going to swear,

00:27:24.020 there's not a darn thing

00:27:25.480 you can complain

00:27:26.800 about that.

00:27:27.860 It gets you

00:27:28.420 the same thing

00:27:29.060 you wanted,

00:27:29.660 which is tagging China

00:27:30.720 with the problem

00:27:32.160 because that's sort

00:27:33.240 of what you wanted.

00:27:35.340 But how is that racist?

00:27:37.700 It's the name

00:27:38.580 of the country.

00:27:39.500 I mean,

00:27:39.680 we didn't name

00:27:40.280 their country.

00:27:41.680 That's not on us.

00:27:43.620 All right.

00:27:46.040 How about

00:27:46.840 this vitamin D correlation?

00:27:50.420 So,

00:27:51.380 I tweeted

00:27:52.180 this thread yesterday

00:27:53.380 in which I was

00:27:54.940 sort of,

00:27:56.960 let's say,

00:27:58.820 extending

00:27:59.460 an existing

00:28:00.260 conversation

00:28:01.320 about vitamin D.

00:28:03.060 Now,

00:28:03.240 the existing

00:28:03.800 conversation was,

00:28:04.800 hey,

00:28:05.020 this looks like

00:28:05.720 this could be

00:28:06.220 really helpful

00:28:06.820 maybe as a

00:28:08.440 therapy.

00:28:09.980 It looks like

00:28:10.840 people who are

00:28:11.920 low on vitamin D

00:28:13.340 are doing worse

00:28:14.100 with it.

00:28:15.080 So,

00:28:15.280 this vitamin D

00:28:16.000 seems to have

00:28:16.740 importance.

00:28:17.460 So,

00:28:18.080 that was

00:28:18.600 already known

00:28:19.280 and widely

00:28:20.420 tweeted at least.

00:28:23.140 And certainly,

00:28:24.180 science is very

00:28:25.140 firm on the

00:28:26.260 understanding

00:28:26.840 that vitamin D

00:28:28.320 has a role

00:28:28.980 in immunity.

00:28:29.980 So,

00:28:30.100 I think we're

00:28:30.660 beyond wondering

00:28:32.140 if it has a role.

00:28:33.940 But here's where

00:28:34.840 I've extended it

00:28:35.800 a little bit.

00:28:37.340 And the extension

00:28:38.080 is to look at

00:28:39.340 all of the hot spots

00:28:40.460 and the people

00:28:40.920 who are doing

00:28:41.280 the worst.

00:28:41.780 and I just

00:28:42.860 Googled them

00:28:43.620 and said,

00:28:44.400 all right,

00:28:45.180 suppose you

00:28:45.680 had diabetes.

00:28:47.320 And I Google

00:28:47.880 it and it says,

00:28:49.100 people with

00:28:49.500 diabetes often

00:28:51.220 have vitamin

00:28:52.900 D deficiency.

00:28:54.600 And I said,

00:28:55.660 uh,

00:28:56.500 okay,

00:28:58.100 Google

00:28:58.680 black people.

00:29:00.560 I don't know

00:29:01.140 what I Googled.

00:29:01.760 It wasn't black 1.00

00:29:02.400 people.

00:29:03.180 But I wanted

00:29:04.360 to see if

00:29:04.980 you're black, 0.99

00:29:05.880 do you have

00:29:06.200 lower vitamin

00:29:07.720 D?

00:29:08.880 You do.

00:29:09.800 Because it

00:29:10.140 takes more sun

00:29:10.960 if you're skin

00:29:11.640 or darker.

00:29:12.860 So,

00:29:13.620 all right,

00:29:13.880 that fits.

00:29:14.600 And then I just

00:29:15.240 went down the line.

00:29:16.100 Old people,

00:29:17.060 less vitamin D.

00:29:19.100 Overweight,

00:29:19.960 Google it.

00:29:21.160 Overweight people

00:29:21.900 have vitamin

00:29:22.960 D deficiency.

00:29:24.420 You'd think

00:29:24.820 the opposite,

00:29:25.460 right?

00:29:25.740 Because if you're

00:29:26.320 overweight,

00:29:26.820 you should be

00:29:27.160 getting a lot

00:29:27.640 of food.

00:29:29.280 Must be some

00:29:30.000 vitamin D

00:29:30.480 in there somewhere.

00:29:31.920 But apparently

00:29:32.660 being overweight

00:29:33.360 is also a risk factor.

00:29:34.780 So anyway,

00:29:35.240 I went right down

00:29:36.200 the line.

00:29:36.980 And, you know,

00:29:37.180 how about

00:29:37.440 smoggy city?

00:29:39.340 Sure.

00:29:40.260 But the,

00:29:40.640 but the two

00:29:41.180 that were

00:29:41.460 standing out

00:29:42.360 as kind of

00:29:43.380 weird were

00:29:44.720 Spain and

00:29:45.580 Italy.

00:29:46.200 And there was

00:29:46.640 some thought

00:29:47.180 that Italy

00:29:48.060 is older.

00:29:49.400 Could be.

00:29:50.300 That could be

00:29:50.700 a factor.

00:29:51.500 But what about

00:29:52.000 Spain?

00:29:53.180 Spain is

00:29:53.740 pretty sunny,

00:29:55.240 right?

00:29:56.260 And I don't

00:29:56.920 know if they

00:29:57.220 have any

00:29:57.520 special problem.

00:29:59.280 I don't know

00:29:59.680 if they're

00:29:59.900 especially old.

00:30:01.320 But somebody

00:30:02.360 who had been

00:30:02.780 studying this

00:30:03.440 vitamin D

00:30:04.020 connection

00:30:04.500 told me this.

00:30:05.600 let me say

00:30:07.060 that I'm

00:30:08.640 just reporting

00:30:09.280 what somebody

00:30:09.940 who looked

00:30:10.540 into it

00:30:10.960 said.

00:30:11.340 So I can't

00:30:12.060 tell you

00:30:12.380 that this

00:30:12.760 is absolutely

00:30:13.440 true.

00:30:14.200 But the

00:30:14.600 thought is

00:30:14.980 this,

00:30:15.820 that in

00:30:16.200 different parts

00:30:16.820 of the

00:30:17.080 world,

00:30:18.320 even if

00:30:19.420 it's sunny,

00:30:20.140 you still

00:30:20.700 can't get

00:30:21.160 enough vitamin

00:30:21.820 D.

00:30:22.520 Because

00:30:22.900 apparently

00:30:23.260 the angle

00:30:24.000 of the sun

00:30:24.680 toward your

00:30:25.820 country has

00:30:27.140 some big

00:30:27.600 effect on

00:30:28.980 the good

00:30:30.220 stuff getting

00:30:30.800 through,

00:30:31.200 if you know

00:30:31.500 what I mean.

00:30:32.460 So it's

00:30:33.160 not enough

00:30:33.720 that you

00:30:34.180 just have

00:30:34.700 sun,

00:30:35.380 you need

00:30:35.940 sun at a

00:30:36.500 certain angle

00:30:37.160 and for a

00:30:38.140 certain amount

00:30:38.560 of time.

00:30:39.620 So apparently

00:30:40.180 noon is the

00:30:40.920 best time to

00:30:41.460 get your

00:30:41.760 sun.

00:30:43.400 If you've

00:30:44.000 got sunscreen

00:30:44.580 on your

00:30:45.140 face and

00:30:46.700 it's the

00:30:46.980 only thing

00:30:47.400 uncovered and

00:30:48.440 you go out

00:30:48.820 in the sun,

00:30:50.080 well it

00:30:50.520 probably helps

00:30:50.920 a little,

00:30:52.200 but you're

00:30:52.800 not getting

00:30:54.080 what you

00:30:54.920 need.

00:30:55.540 So I would

00:30:56.040 recommend,

00:30:57.040 I'm no

00:30:57.780 doctor,

00:30:58.360 so if

00:30:58.740 anybody wants

00:30:59.340 to overrule

00:31:00.480 me,

00:31:00.840 I'm just

00:31:01.200 going to

00:31:01.380 make a

00:31:01.840 common

00:31:02.220 sense

00:31:02.640 statement.

00:31:04.360 If I

00:31:05.120 go outside

00:31:06.400 and my

00:31:06.800 hands are

00:31:07.840 the only

00:31:08.120 things

00:31:08.420 exposed,

00:31:09.500 that feels

00:31:10.280 like a

00:31:10.620 bad plan.

00:31:11.800 Because first

00:31:12.300 of all I'd

00:31:12.700 rather wear

00:31:13.140 sunscreen,

00:31:14.060 this is where

00:31:14.480 I'm going to

00:31:14.760 get my,

00:31:15.400 if I'm going

00:31:15.900 to get skin

00:31:16.340 cancer it's

00:31:17.100 going to be

00:31:17.360 up here

00:31:17.680 somewhere first

00:31:18.580 because that's

00:31:19.400 where the

00:31:19.680 sun is.

00:31:20.400 So I would

00:31:20.900 recommend

00:31:21.300 go out at

00:31:22.120 noon with

00:31:23.020 your shorts

00:31:23.460 on,

00:31:24.580 put your

00:31:25.200 face under

00:31:26.500 a hat or

00:31:27.060 in the

00:31:27.320 shade,

00:31:28.260 put your

00:31:28.680 legs out,

00:31:30.120 and I

00:31:30.560 don't know

00:31:30.720 about you,

00:31:31.200 but I

00:31:31.780 can't even

00:31:32.140 remember the

00:31:32.620 last time I

00:31:33.060 got a sunburn

00:31:33.700 on my

00:31:34.060 legs.

00:31:35.440 I mean,

00:31:35.720 I wear

00:31:37.100 shorts all

00:31:37.680 summer in

00:31:38.340 California,

00:31:39.560 and I

00:31:40.280 never put

00:31:40.760 sunscreen on

00:31:41.400 my legs,

00:31:42.360 and I

00:31:43.140 barely even

00:31:43.620 get tanned,

00:31:44.540 and I'm

00:31:45.080 out there

00:31:45.360 all the

00:31:45.620 time.

00:31:45.920 So there's

00:31:46.220 something about

00:31:46.760 legs don't 0.80

00:31:48.680 burn very

00:31:49.280 fast.

00:31:51.160 So if

00:31:51.860 you're a

00:31:52.180 guy,

00:31:52.500 maybe you

00:31:52.760 take off

00:31:53.120 your shirt

00:31:53.760 for a few

00:31:54.240 minutes,

00:31:54.680 so 15

00:31:55.180 minutes in

00:31:55.680 the noon

00:31:55.960 sun.

00:31:56.200 Anyway,

00:31:56.960 circling back

00:31:57.520 to my

00:31:57.820 point,

00:31:58.520 apparently

00:31:58.920 both Spain

00:31:59.820 and Italy,

00:32:01.160 where the

00:32:01.640 COVID problem

00:32:02.820 is pretty

00:32:03.340 bad,

00:32:04.260 they actually

00:32:04.860 have low

00:32:05.440 vitamin D

00:32:06.100 because of

00:32:07.280 the angle

00:32:07.760 of the sun.

00:32:08.860 Plenty of

00:32:09.360 sun,

00:32:10.320 but low

00:32:10.760 vitamin D

00:32:11.420 because they're

00:32:11.780 not getting

00:32:12.100 the right

00:32:12.620 angle of

00:32:13.680 sun,

00:32:14.300 or so I'm

00:32:14.960 told.

00:32:15.580 I would like

00:32:16.080 you to fact

00:32:16.820 check everything

00:32:17.400 I say on

00:32:18.180 this topic

00:32:18.740 because I'm

00:32:20.180 way out of

00:32:20.900 my comfort

00:32:22.220 zone of

00:32:22.980 knowledge.

00:32:23.340 I'm just

00:32:23.620 passing stuff

00:32:24.280 along at

00:32:26.140 whatever

00:32:26.560 credibility you

00:32:27.400 want to put

00:32:27.720 on it.

00:32:28.340 All right.

00:32:30.520 Here's another

00:32:32.320 thing I found.

00:32:33.220 You know that

00:32:33.660 prisons,

00:32:34.660 we're having

00:32:35.300 this weird

00:32:35.900 discovery about

00:32:36.740 prisons,

00:32:37.640 that something

00:32:38.760 like 90%

00:32:39.800 of some

00:32:40.520 prisons have

00:32:41.500 been exposed

00:32:42.000 to the

00:32:42.320 virus.

00:32:43.300 Something like

00:32:43.840 90%.

00:32:44.720 Yet the

00:32:47.120 deaths is

00:32:48.220 fairly low.

00:32:49.600 So why

00:32:50.020 would prisons

00:32:50.720 have plenty

00:32:52.720 of 90%

00:32:54.080 infected,

00:32:55.020 but also

00:32:55.920 not much

00:32:56.460 problem with

00:32:57.040 it health

00:32:57.400 wise?

00:32:58.380 Why would

00:32:58.840 that be?

00:32:59.740 Because men

00:33:01.000 are more

00:33:01.380 susceptible.

00:33:02.840 The prisons

00:33:03.540 we're talking

00:33:04.040 about are

00:33:04.360 mostly male

00:33:04.860 prisons.

00:33:06.100 African

00:33:06.580 Americans

00:33:07.100 more susceptible.

00:33:09.300 Plenty of

00:33:09.780 African Americans

00:33:10.760 in prison.

00:33:12.960 And they

00:33:14.360 don't get

00:33:14.620 much sun.

00:33:16.600 Right?

00:33:17.040 So wouldn't

00:33:17.560 you expect

00:33:18.120 that the

00:33:18.800 prison situation

00:33:19.720 would be

00:33:20.160 really dire

00:33:20.980 and instead

00:33:21.840 it's the

00:33:22.240 opposite?

00:33:23.260 Well,

00:33:23.460 here's

00:33:23.640 something I

00:33:24.060 found out.

00:33:25.280 Now,

00:33:25.640 first of all,

00:33:26.060 you'd have to

00:33:27.060 factor in the

00:33:27.620 fact that

00:33:28.080 people in

00:33:28.600 prison tend

00:33:29.120 to be,

00:33:31.040 they don't

00:33:31.780 have a lot

00:33:32.180 of job

00:33:32.600 stress,

00:33:33.680 they probably

00:33:34.120 get plenty

00:33:34.620 of rest,

00:33:36.020 and they

00:33:37.080 work out,

00:33:38.960 they lift

00:33:39.980 weights,

00:33:41.100 and they're

00:33:42.160 youngish.

00:33:42.780 So there's

00:33:43.080 probably lots

00:33:43.580 of reasons

00:33:43.940 they're a

00:33:44.320 little bit

00:33:44.620 extra healthy

00:33:45.260 anyway.

00:33:46.120 But here's

00:33:46.540 what I

00:33:46.780 found out.

00:33:48.400 Prison meals

00:33:49.260 are engineered.

00:33:51.640 Makes sense.

00:33:52.720 Because for

00:33:54.500 humanitarian

00:33:55.400 reasons,

00:33:56.740 you can't

00:33:57.260 give prisoners

00:33:58.980 unhealthy food.

00:34:01.180 It would be

00:34:01.960 cruel and

00:34:02.500 unusual.

00:34:03.500 So it

00:34:03.800 turns out,

00:34:04.840 and I didn't

00:34:05.400 see this

00:34:05.820 coming,

00:34:07.120 that the

00:34:07.660 class of

00:34:08.860 people in

00:34:09.400 America who

00:34:10.760 have the

00:34:11.120 best diets,

00:34:12.920 including

00:34:13.540 supplementation

00:34:14.680 for vitamin

00:34:15.260 D,

00:34:15.620 specifically,

00:34:16.860 600

00:34:17.420 whatever units,

00:34:18.440 are prison

00:34:20.600 meals.

00:34:21.840 So prisoners

00:34:22.420 actually have

00:34:23.060 the best

00:34:23.620 diet of

00:34:25.960 anybody in

00:34:26.440 the United

00:34:26.740 States.

00:34:27.980 And part of

00:34:28.740 the reason is

00:34:29.200 they're forced

00:34:29.700 to eat it.

00:34:30.580 They don't

00:34:30.780 have a choice.

00:34:31.740 And the

00:34:32.220 government is

00:34:32.900 forced to

00:34:33.420 give them

00:34:33.740 healthy food.

00:34:35.040 They don't

00:34:35.320 have a choice

00:34:35.780 either,

00:34:36.400 because somebody

00:34:37.060 would complain.

00:34:38.680 So they

00:34:40.620 also have free

00:34:41.160 health care,

00:34:41.580 yeah.

00:34:41.680 although free

00:34:45.280 is a weird

00:34:46.120 word for

00:34:47.400 a prison

00:34:47.740 situation.

00:34:50.560 So could

00:34:52.100 it be

00:34:52.600 that vitamin

00:34:54.260 D really

00:34:55.100 is, I

00:34:56.740 don't know,

00:34:57.180 80% of the

00:34:58.160 answer?

00:34:59.640 Apparently we

00:35:00.580 can check for

00:35:01.580 vitamin D

00:35:02.440 sufficiency.

00:35:04.500 So there

00:35:04.860 are, it

00:35:05.560 looks like

00:35:05.840 there's home

00:35:06.660 tests.

00:35:07.600 I don't know

00:35:08.000 if you spit

00:35:08.880 or take a

00:35:10.000 finger prick

00:35:10.480 at what you

00:35:10.900 do.

00:35:11.100 But apparently

00:35:11.880 there's some

00:35:12.340 home tests

00:35:12.940 where you

00:35:13.580 can test

00:35:14.000 your vitamin

00:35:14.480 D level.

00:35:15.820 And here's

00:35:16.180 the question

00:35:16.600 I would ask

00:35:17.240 you.

00:35:17.920 I'll just

00:35:18.300 put this

00:35:18.740 out here.

00:35:19.640 As we're

00:35:20.260 deciding how

00:35:21.120 to reopen

00:35:21.720 and who

00:35:22.540 can go back

00:35:23.500 to work

00:35:23.940 and who

00:35:24.240 has to

00:35:24.600 hide, 0.56

00:35:26.280 how good

00:35:27.000 a correlation

00:35:27.620 would we

00:35:28.240 find if

00:35:29.900 we were to

00:35:30.360 study all

00:35:30.880 the people

00:35:31.260 with vitamin

00:35:31.880 D

00:35:32.340 sufficiency

00:35:34.060 and insufficiency,

00:35:35.920 would we

00:35:36.960 discover that

00:35:38.620 no matter

00:35:39.100 who you

00:35:39.700 are,

00:35:40.100 if your

00:35:41.220 vitamin D

00:35:41.860 level is

00:35:42.440 good,

00:35:43.500 you can

00:35:44.280 go back

00:35:44.640 to work.

00:35:45.760 Take me

00:35:46.520 for example.

00:35:47.260 I'm a

00:35:47.480 perfect example.

00:35:49.080 I have

00:35:49.760 four

00:35:52.060 comorbidities.

00:35:54.200 comorbidities.

00:35:59.280 I'm male.

00:36:01.000 I'm over

00:36:01.700 60.

00:36:03.600 I've got

00:36:04.320 asthma.

00:36:06.120 And I'm

00:36:06.860 talking about it

00:36:07.620 in the public,

00:36:08.320 which, as you

00:36:08.960 know, makes the

00:36:09.620 simulation target

00:36:10.560 you to get

00:36:11.720 coronavirus and

00:36:12.740 kill you. 0.99

00:36:13.600 So if I hadn't

00:36:14.680 mentioned this

00:36:15.240 publicly, I would

00:36:16.280 only have three

00:36:17.240 comorbidities.

00:36:18.820 But since I

00:36:19.420 said it in

00:36:19.920 public, you know

00:36:21.220 how this works.

00:36:21.920 the simulation

00:36:24.180 is looking at

00:36:24.820 me and

00:36:25.080 saying, did

00:36:26.280 you talk about

00:36:27.080 this in

00:36:27.620 public?

00:36:29.240 Because that's

00:36:29.980 a comorbidity

00:36:30.940 bastard.

00:36:31.540 We're going to

00:36:31.820 come for you.

00:36:32.700 If there's

00:36:33.240 anybody who's

00:36:33.740 going to get

00:36:34.060 coronavirus now,

00:36:35.260 it's going to

00:36:35.820 be the

00:36:36.120 asshole who's 0.92

00:36:36.760 talking about

00:36:37.220 it in public

00:36:37.680 too much.

00:36:38.460 Because you're

00:36:39.400 in the target

00:36:39.980 list now.

00:36:40.920 So I think

00:36:41.500 you'd agree,

00:36:42.760 four comorbidities.

00:36:44.980 But, on the

00:36:46.220 plus side, I'm

00:36:47.720 otherwise

00:36:48.360 unusually fit.

00:36:49.880 and unusually

00:36:51.120 healthy, if

00:36:52.180 you know, all

00:36:52.620 things considered.

00:36:53.840 I also am

00:36:54.840 very dedicated

00:36:56.400 to eating

00:36:57.300 right.

00:36:58.460 And I am

00:36:59.300 literally going

00:37:00.280 outside every

00:37:01.100 day and

00:37:01.720 getting my

00:37:02.320 15 minutes

00:37:03.160 of sun.

00:37:04.140 Now, it's

00:37:04.720 California sun,

00:37:05.780 so I hope it's

00:37:06.960 a good kind.

00:37:08.200 But, presumably,

00:37:11.080 given my

00:37:11.800 light pigmentation

00:37:14.320 and given my

00:37:15.720 dedication to

00:37:16.520 getting sun

00:37:17.040 every day and

00:37:17.680 eating a healthy

00:37:18.260 meal otherwise,

00:37:18.880 and I do

00:37:19.640 eat fish,

00:37:20.240 so I probably

00:37:20.580 get a little

00:37:20.920 that way,

00:37:23.000 would I be

00:37:24.960 likely to have

00:37:25.760 a bad time

00:37:26.500 with coronavirus

00:37:27.320 for comorbidities,

00:37:29.660 including talking

00:37:30.500 about it on the

00:37:31.180 internet?

00:37:32.240 But what if my

00:37:33.260 vitamin D is

00:37:34.060 good?

00:37:36.040 Tell me you're

00:37:36.920 not curious about

00:37:37.960 that.

00:37:39.360 Find me the

00:37:40.160 people with

00:37:40.660 comorbidities,

00:37:42.040 if such a thing

00:37:43.520 exists,

00:37:44.640 who also,

00:37:45.740 through, I

00:37:46.800 don't know,

00:37:46.960 the sun or

00:37:47.860 supplementation,

00:37:49.840 also has good

00:37:51.020 vitamin D.

00:37:52.680 Do we have

00:37:53.540 that information?

00:37:55.320 Show me the

00:37:56.140 high vitamin D

00:37:57.380 people, and

00:37:57.980 apparently you

00:37:58.720 can be too

00:37:59.280 high as well.

00:38:00.480 There's some

00:38:00.960 thought that

00:38:02.420 there's a right

00:38:03.760 amount of

00:38:04.160 vitamin D.

00:38:04.880 You don't want

00:38:05.480 too little, but

00:38:06.260 too much could

00:38:07.560 actually cause you

00:38:08.200 problems too.

00:38:09.020 Not just

00:38:09.500 directly, but

00:38:11.020 wouldn't be as

00:38:11.720 good for dealing

00:38:12.720 with the

00:38:13.020 coronavirus.

00:38:17.600 Elon Musk

00:38:18.380 on Rogan.

00:38:19.000 I haven't

00:38:19.180 watched that

00:38:19.580 yet, but I

00:38:20.060 will.

00:38:21.740 They took

00:38:22.360 asthma off

00:38:23.100 the list.

00:38:24.080 I thought

00:38:24.700 they did.

00:38:26.500 I don't know

00:38:27.140 if they, did

00:38:27.880 they intentionally

00:38:28.700 take it off

00:38:29.320 the list, or

00:38:30.340 did it quietly

00:38:31.220 stop being on

00:38:32.200 the list?

00:38:32.980 Because I

00:38:33.580 noted before

00:38:34.460 that I was

00:38:35.500 watching the

00:38:36.020 list, and it

00:38:36.580 seemed to

00:38:37.020 quietly be

00:38:37.860 taken off

00:38:38.400 the list.

00:38:39.700 Is that what

00:38:40.420 you saw as

00:38:40.980 well?

00:38:41.780 So I think

00:38:42.540 there's still

00:38:42.920 some question

00:38:43.800 about it.

00:38:44.660 All right, so

00:38:45.240 there's my

00:38:45.780 challenge to

00:38:47.260 the world.

00:38:47.820 Instead of

00:38:48.420 testing for

00:38:49.160 coronavirus,

00:38:50.740 instead of

00:38:51.400 testing for

00:38:52.440 antibodies,

00:38:54.320 although those

00:38:54.840 are all good

00:38:55.420 things to test

00:38:56.080 for also,

00:38:57.640 could we

00:38:58.320 cheaply and

00:38:59.600 quickly test

00:39:00.460 our own

00:39:01.320 vitamin D

00:39:02.980 levels?

00:39:05.760 Could we?

00:39:06.920 Is that the

00:39:07.880 fastest way to

00:39:08.660 get back to

00:39:09.140 work healthily?

00:39:09.860 check your

00:39:11.040 vitamin D

00:39:11.580 levels.

00:39:12.220 If you can

00:39:12.960 get them back

00:39:13.640 into a

00:39:14.000 healthy range,

00:39:14.740 go back to

00:39:15.220 work.

00:39:15.740 If you

00:39:16.280 can't, hide.

00:39:18.480 Wait for the

00:39:19.560 therapies, wait

00:39:20.440 for the

00:39:21.000 convalescent

00:39:22.660 blood therapy

00:39:23.300 would probably

00:39:23.700 be the

00:39:24.000 smaller one.

00:39:26.220 So I

00:39:26.980 haven't seen

00:39:27.580 anybody suggest

00:39:28.280 that, right?

00:39:29.000 Has anybody

00:39:29.460 suggested that

00:39:30.260 we decide who

00:39:31.140 goes back to

00:39:31.740 work based on

00:39:32.840 our vitamin D

00:39:33.640 level?

00:39:34.900 I don't think

00:39:35.540 I've heard

00:39:35.880 anybody say

00:39:36.420 that.

00:39:37.520 I'll just

00:39:37.860 put it out

00:39:38.360 there, because

00:39:39.340 it's very

00:39:39.800 studyable, so

00:39:41.300 it's vulnerable

00:39:43.740 to data.

00:39:44.840 In other

00:39:45.100 words, you

00:39:45.440 can get the

00:39:45.960 data.

00:39:47.260 And you

00:39:47.760 could probably

00:39:48.140 get the

00:39:48.500 data in a

00:39:49.060 way that

00:39:49.400 would be

00:39:49.860 fairly reliable,

00:39:50.800 because there's

00:39:51.280 so many

00:39:51.800 examples and

00:39:52.600 so much

00:39:53.440 energy around

00:39:54.200 it.

00:39:57.380 Yes, somebody

00:39:58.160 says their

00:39:58.540 doctor warned

00:39:59.140 them about

00:39:59.580 too much

00:40:00.080 vitamin D.

00:40:01.140 I am told,

00:40:02.200 and again,

00:40:02.940 don't take any

00:40:03.620 medical advice

00:40:04.460 from me.

00:40:05.560 That would be

00:40:05.920 a bad idea.

00:40:06.640 So this

00:40:07.100 is not

00:40:07.440 medical

00:40:07.760 advice.

00:40:09.420 But I am

00:40:10.120 told there

00:40:10.500 is such

00:40:10.840 thing as

00:40:11.260 too much

00:40:11.620 vitamin D,

00:40:12.620 so that the

00:40:13.640 way you would

00:40:14.180 most likely

00:40:14.940 run into a

00:40:15.520 problem is

00:40:16.120 try to do

00:40:16.840 it yourself.

00:40:18.300 Trying to

00:40:18.900 do it without

00:40:19.360 a doctor's

00:40:20.300 advice, and

00:40:21.680 just like

00:40:22.140 pumping a

00:40:23.000 bunch of

00:40:23.280 vitamin D

00:40:23.780 into you

00:40:24.180 because you're

00:40:24.500 afraid, would

00:40:25.780 be bad

00:40:26.640 medical

00:40:27.040 technique.

00:40:28.620 Bad

00:40:29.220 medical

00:40:29.620 technique.

00:40:30.120 In New

00:40:33.080 York City,

00:40:33.660 66% of

00:40:34.840 the people

00:40:36.240 who got

00:40:36.720 the virus

00:40:37.520 got it

00:40:38.180 while socially

00:40:38.960 isolating,

00:40:40.220 which would

00:40:40.880 also suggest

00:40:41.880 that staying

00:40:42.960 indoors is

00:40:43.600 not the

00:40:43.940 best thing.

00:40:45.020 There's also

00:40:45.660 a theory,

00:40:46.840 I just saw

00:40:47.360 it on the

00:40:47.660 internet, and

00:40:48.600 again, it's

00:40:50.240 not like it's

00:40:50.800 passed some

00:40:51.280 kind of

00:40:52.360 rigorous

00:40:53.160 scientific

00:40:53.780 testing,

00:40:54.700 but given

00:40:55.620 the nature

00:40:56.080 of the

00:40:56.380 virus,

00:40:56.980 there's a

00:40:57.320 high likelihood

00:40:58.040 that if you

00:40:58.840 are in a

00:40:59.600 shared

00:41:00.240 ventilation

00:41:02.280 area,

00:41:03.560 that you're

00:41:03.880 at greater

00:41:04.300 risk.

00:41:05.180 So shared

00:41:05.700 ventilation you

00:41:06.580 might see

00:41:06.960 in a prison,

00:41:08.600 shared

00:41:09.040 ventilation you

00:41:09.820 might see

00:41:10.260 at a nursing

00:41:12.000 home,

00:41:13.020 shared

00:41:13.400 ventilation you

00:41:14.340 might see

00:41:14.880 on a

00:41:15.320 cruise ship,

00:41:18.260 and office

00:41:20.140 buildings also.

00:41:22.600 So that

00:41:24.420 might be one

00:41:24.920 of the biggest

00:41:25.320 risk factors

00:41:26.100 because there

00:41:26.580 is some

00:41:27.000 sense that

00:41:27.600 it's airborne,

00:41:28.100 so it

00:41:29.980 may actually

00:41:30.900 live through

00:41:31.840 the air

00:41:32.980 conditioning.

00:41:34.000 Anecdotally,

00:41:34.820 I know one

00:41:35.420 person who

00:41:37.200 got it by

00:41:38.200 being in

00:41:38.900 the same

00:41:39.280 building,

00:41:40.180 but not

00:41:40.740 having direct

00:41:41.380 contact with,

00:41:42.400 in fact,

00:41:42.820 never even

00:41:43.300 meeting,

00:41:44.680 a person who

00:41:45.660 had confirmed

00:41:46.840 a case of

00:41:47.400 coronavirus.

00:41:48.720 So somebody

00:41:49.340 who shared

00:41:50.640 a ventilation

00:41:54.380 system with

00:41:56.200 the neighbor

00:41:56.640 downstairs,

00:41:57.320 got it

00:41:59.660 without ever

00:42:00.460 having any

00:42:01.020 contact or

00:42:01.660 even actually

00:42:02.460 knowing that

00:42:03.040 that neighbor

00:42:03.700 existed.

00:42:04.680 Now, I

00:42:04.980 suppose it

00:42:05.960 could have

00:42:06.220 gotten it in

00:42:06.780 the elevator

00:42:08.020 or the

00:42:08.760 common

00:42:09.720 mail area

00:42:10.640 or something.

00:42:11.160 I suppose

00:42:11.480 that's possible.

00:42:12.580 But I put it

00:42:13.440 out there as

00:42:14.080 something that

00:42:14.740 we need to

00:42:15.940 know more

00:42:16.380 about.

00:42:17.320 Now, once

00:42:18.840 again, it's

00:42:19.480 another day of

00:42:20.560 this stupidity.

00:42:21.700 And it

00:42:23.460 goes like

00:42:23.880 this.

00:42:24.880 All the

00:42:25.240 smart people

00:42:25.820 say, we

00:42:27.400 need more

00:42:27.920 testing.

00:42:29.240 Why is our

00:42:30.180 government so

00:42:30.900 bad?

00:42:32.000 Don't you

00:42:32.480 know that

00:42:33.620 everybody gets

00:42:34.360 out of this

00:42:34.800 with more

00:42:35.240 testing?

00:42:36.140 Look at those

00:42:36.760 little countries

00:42:37.440 doing so well

00:42:38.640 with all their

00:42:39.700 testing.

00:42:40.440 We need more

00:42:41.300 testing.

00:42:43.940 All the

00:42:44.700 smart people

00:42:45.220 say that.

00:42:47.200 But the

00:42:47.920 people who

00:42:48.340 are smarter

00:42:49.040 than the

00:42:50.680 smart people

00:42:51.240 have a

00:42:52.300 little bit

00:42:52.680 different take

00:42:53.260 on it.

00:42:54.020 And it

00:42:54.300 goes like

00:42:54.700 this.

00:42:55.580 If we

00:42:56.280 could do

00:42:56.760 that much

00:42:57.300 testing,

00:42:58.160 we'd already

00:42:59.060 be doing

00:42:59.580 it.

00:43:01.020 Okay?

00:43:02.520 If you

00:43:03.160 see a

00:43:03.520 tweet or

00:43:04.440 like a

00:43:04.880 quote from

00:43:05.440 Melinda

00:43:05.800 Gates

00:43:06.160 recently

00:43:07.040 saying we

00:43:08.140 should do

00:43:08.480 more

00:43:08.700 testing,

00:43:09.380 you know,

00:43:09.580 we're doing

00:43:09.900 it wrong

00:43:10.360 because we're

00:43:10.820 not testing

00:43:11.340 enough,

00:43:12.400 it makes

00:43:14.120 my head

00:43:14.660 explode

00:43:15.240 because does

00:43:17.560 Melinda think

00:43:18.260 the government

00:43:18.860 didn't have

00:43:19.620 that idea

00:43:20.220 yet?

00:43:21.580 Does Melinda

00:43:22.440 Gates think

00:43:23.020 that Tony

00:43:23.660 Fauci and

00:43:25.160 Dr.

00:43:25.620 Birx hadn't 0.97

00:43:27.120 thought of

00:43:27.540 that?

00:43:28.940 And they're

00:43:29.300 like looking

00:43:30.360 at Twitter

00:43:30.920 and Dr.

00:43:32.340 Birx is 0.91

00:43:32.720 like,

00:43:32.960 let me

00:43:33.740 check my

00:43:34.140 Twitter.

00:43:35.780 Melinda

00:43:36.180 Gates,

00:43:37.840 whoa,

00:43:38.560 we need to

00:43:39.600 do more

00:43:39.920 testing.

00:43:41.740 Whoa,

00:43:43.320 why did I

00:43:44.440 think of

00:43:44.780 that?

00:43:45.640 I've been

00:43:45.980 working on

00:43:46.440 this for so

00:43:46.920 many years

00:43:47.380 and more

00:43:48.620 testing.

00:43:50.140 That's

00:43:50.460 brilliant.

00:43:51.600 Let's do

00:43:52.180 that.

00:43:53.980 Oh,

00:43:55.060 I'm so

00:43:57.380 angry.

00:43:58.860 My head

00:43:59.640 wants to

00:44:00.120 explode.

00:44:00.740 And here's

00:44:01.100 the problem.

00:44:02.300 The task

00:44:03.140 force made

00:44:04.160 the mistake

00:44:04.800 of selling

00:44:05.720 testing

00:44:07.060 sufficiency

00:44:07.800 under the

00:44:08.920 context of

00:44:10.380 having enough

00:44:10.940 to open up

00:44:11.560 in these

00:44:11.920 phases.

00:44:12.340 tests.

00:44:12.900 But the

00:44:13.380 enough

00:44:13.760 testing to

00:44:14.760 open up

00:44:15.180 in phases,

00:44:15.660 which the

00:44:16.180 president and

00:44:17.220 the task

00:44:17.560 force repeats

00:44:18.320 over and

00:44:18.740 over, we

00:44:19.120 have enough

00:44:19.620 tests.

00:44:20.360 You can

00:44:21.000 open up in

00:44:21.660 phases according

00:44:22.460 to the

00:44:22.760 guidelines.

00:44:23.460 You can

00:44:23.960 meet the

00:44:24.380 guidelines.

00:44:25.280 We have

00:44:25.700 enough

00:44:25.980 tests.

00:44:26.820 So the

00:44:27.420 world

00:44:27.720 interprets

00:44:28.320 that as

00:44:28.900 we have

00:44:30.260 enough

00:44:30.500 tests.

00:44:32.060 So,

00:44:33.420 wait a

00:44:33.880 minute.

00:44:34.660 If we

00:44:35.060 have enough

00:44:35.500 tests,

00:44:37.220 and the

00:44:37.600 smart people

00:44:38.220 like Melinda

00:44:38.780 Gates are

00:44:39.780 saying we

00:44:40.220 should test

00:44:41.040 more, well

00:44:42.400 it must be

00:44:42.920 just stupidity.

00:44:44.500 Right?

00:44:45.360 We must

00:44:46.040 just be

00:44:46.520 stupid. 0.90

00:44:47.620 We have

00:44:48.120 all these

00:44:48.500 tests.

00:44:49.840 Everybody

00:44:50.240 smart says

00:44:51.040 we should

00:44:51.420 test more.

00:44:52.900 Why don't

00:44:53.280 we use all

00:44:53.880 of our

00:44:54.160 existing

00:44:54.660 extra

00:44:55.580 testing to

00:44:57.140 do what

00:44:57.560 works?

00:44:58.380 All the

00:44:58.740 smart people

00:44:59.260 say so.

00:45:00.200 And why

00:45:00.700 didn't Tony

00:45:01.340 Fauci ever

00:45:01.980 think of

00:45:02.420 doing more

00:45:02.900 testing?

00:45:03.960 What is

00:45:04.500 wrong with

00:45:05.000 him?

00:45:05.680 And all

00:45:06.180 the other

00:45:06.600 experts,

00:45:07.720 they were

00:45:08.280 waiting for

00:45:08.760 this tweet

00:45:09.320 from Melinda

00:45:10.020 Gates to

00:45:10.980 say we

00:45:11.280 should do

00:45:11.560 more

00:45:11.780 testing,

00:45:12.280 and now

00:45:12.560 they know.

00:45:14.640 Here's

00:45:15.040 what's

00:45:15.260 happening.

00:45:17.300 We do

00:45:17.920 have, I

00:45:18.620 think, it

00:45:19.560 seems to be

00:45:20.040 true, that we

00:45:20.480 have enough

00:45:20.840 testing to

00:45:21.440 open up in

00:45:21.940 phases, but

00:45:22.540 that's a

00:45:22.840 very limited

00:45:23.440 testing.

00:45:24.540 It's, you

00:45:24.900 know, doctor's

00:45:25.560 orders, and

00:45:26.220 it's under

00:45:26.580 certain conditions.

00:45:27.820 It's a tiny

00:45:28.440 percent of the

00:45:29.200 country.

00:45:30.060 It's not the

00:45:30.620 kind of

00:45:31.220 testing you

00:45:31.780 do if you

00:45:33.280 want to get

00:45:33.760 rid of a

00:45:34.160 virus quickly.

00:45:36.800 You need to

00:45:37.440 do massive

00:45:38.080 testing,

00:45:38.580 drive-ins,

00:45:39.780 you've got to

00:45:40.160 do something

00:45:40.520 more like

00:45:41.060 South Korea,

00:45:41.880 etc.

00:45:42.500 If we

00:45:43.200 could do

00:45:43.620 that quickly,

00:45:46.320 do you

00:45:46.940 think that we

00:45:47.580 wouldn't be

00:45:48.020 doing that?

00:45:49.920 Seriously.

00:45:51.140 Do you

00:45:51.540 think there's

00:45:51.860 any chance

00:45:52.680 that if we

00:45:53.640 could do a

00:45:54.700 lot more

00:45:55.060 testing, that

00:45:56.520 we wouldn't

00:45:56.960 already be

00:45:57.500 doing it?

00:45:58.400 It's obvious

00:45:59.420 that the

00:45:59.880 problem is we

00:46:00.400 can't do it.

00:46:02.100 Isn't it?

00:46:03.020 Somebody says

00:46:03.600 Texas is doing

00:46:04.520 it right.

00:46:04.940 Texas is

00:46:06.600 doing one

00:46:07.120 thing very

00:46:07.740 right, which

00:46:08.820 is they're

00:46:09.980 focusing their

00:46:11.040 resources on

00:46:12.360 the hot

00:46:12.720 spots.

00:46:14.400 Why other

00:46:15.140 people weren't

00:46:15.660 doing that,

00:46:16.640 or at least

00:46:17.600 not doing it

00:46:18.300 as well,

00:46:19.040 that's for

00:46:19.740 them to

00:46:20.020 explain.

00:46:20.920 Maybe they

00:46:21.340 are, and

00:46:22.060 Texas is

00:46:23.260 doing a

00:46:23.540 better job

00:46:24.100 of explaining

00:46:24.700 it.

00:46:24.940 But I have

00:46:25.660 a suspicion

00:46:26.220 that Texas

00:46:26.800 is just

00:46:28.300 doing it

00:46:28.700 smarter.

00:46:29.860 It could be

00:46:30.700 it's just

00:46:31.060 that.

00:46:31.360 It's a

00:46:32.440 very capable

00:46:33.040 state.

00:46:34.000 They have

00:46:34.560 a very

00:46:34.900 capable

00:46:35.360 governor.

00:46:36.760 They're

00:46:36.920 very practical.

00:46:39.320 Texas isn't

00:46:41.380 going to do

00:46:41.780 anything as

00:46:42.740 a state.

00:46:43.720 They're not

00:46:44.240 going to do

00:46:44.560 anything that's

00:46:45.180 just politically

00:46:45.760 correct.

00:46:46.480 They're a

00:46:47.080 little more

00:46:47.420 practical about

00:46:48.200 things.

00:46:50.700 So if

00:46:51.780 they're not

00:46:52.160 testing massively,

00:46:53.360 it's because

00:46:53.720 they can't,

00:46:54.500 they don't

00:46:54.800 have enough

00:46:55.240 tests.

00:46:56.160 And how

00:46:56.740 long would

00:46:57.120 it take to

00:46:57.580 have enough

00:46:57.920 tests to

00:46:58.380 do that?

00:46:59.380 Have you

00:46:59.700 seen all the

00:47:00.420 news reports?

00:47:01.800 About how

00:47:02.220 long it

00:47:02.640 would take

00:47:03.340 based on

00:47:04.220 everybody

00:47:04.740 ramping up.

00:47:06.320 Let's say

00:47:06.940 we even

00:47:07.300 use the

00:47:07.720 War Powers

00:47:08.260 Act.

00:47:08.800 Whatever it

00:47:09.400 takes.

00:47:10.120 The best

00:47:10.580 case scenario,

00:47:11.800 how long

00:47:12.280 would it

00:47:12.560 take to

00:47:12.960 ramp up?

00:47:15.540 It would

00:47:16.060 be sometime

00:47:16.500 after the

00:47:17.040 economy had

00:47:17.600 crashed.

00:47:18.820 So testing,

00:47:20.760 unless somebody

00:47:21.540 invents some

00:47:22.500 new thing that

00:47:23.120 can be scaled

00:47:23.700 up, it's

00:47:24.100 just not a

00:47:24.560 thing.

00:47:25.240 So all the

00:47:25.760 smart people

00:47:26.280 saying that we

00:47:26.780 should do

00:47:27.060 more testing,

00:47:28.140 just stop

00:47:29.520 doing it.

00:47:30.200 What you

00:47:30.560 should be

00:47:30.880 saying is how

00:47:32.160 could we

00:47:32.560 make it

00:47:32.960 possible to

00:47:33.660 do more

00:47:34.040 testing?

00:47:35.020 Now one

00:47:35.380 of the

00:47:35.560 issues I

00:47:36.040 don't know

00:47:36.360 enough about,

00:47:37.240 but Balaji

00:47:38.220 Srinivasan was

00:47:39.780 saying this,

00:47:40.460 and he's far

00:47:41.580 more informed

00:47:42.500 about this

00:47:43.000 whole area.

00:47:44.540 He suggests

00:47:45.480 that one of

00:47:46.000 the things

00:47:46.220 holding back

00:47:47.080 sufficient

00:47:48.020 testing in

00:47:48.660 this country

00:47:49.140 is the

00:47:49.500 FDA needs

00:47:50.520 to approve

00:47:51.320 the at-home

00:47:52.780 kits.

00:47:53.880 Now there

00:47:54.440 might be one

00:47:55.080 that's approved,

00:47:56.100 maybe they

00:47:56.520 need to approve

00:47:57.100 more, there

00:47:57.820 might be more

00:47:58.260 to the story

00:47:58.740 that I don't

00:47:59.160 understand, but

00:48:00.460 it could be

00:48:00.900 that that's a

00:48:01.420 breakthrough.

00:48:02.280 It could be

00:48:02.760 that the

00:48:03.120 breakthrough is

00:48:04.740 allowing home

00:48:05.880 testing and

00:48:07.060 then letting

00:48:07.540 the capitalism

00:48:08.460 do what it

00:48:09.600 does.

00:48:10.280 Because if

00:48:11.440 you said

00:48:11.960 home testing

00:48:13.520 will be

00:48:13.980 legal beyond

00:48:16.440 what's already

00:48:17.060 approved, I

00:48:17.560 think at least

00:48:17.940 one is

00:48:18.280 approved, but

00:48:19.360 if you said

00:48:19.840 they're all

00:48:21.200 approved, you

00:48:22.300 just have to

00:48:23.520 show your

00:48:24.240 numbers and

00:48:24.900 meet some

00:48:25.240 standards or

00:48:25.860 whatever, what

00:48:27.320 would you pay

00:48:28.040 to do a

00:48:29.460 home test?

00:48:30.780 If you could

00:48:31.500 buy a home

00:48:32.000 test right now

00:48:32.780 and you didn't

00:48:33.720 need doctor's

00:48:34.400 approval, and

00:48:36.080 let's say you

00:48:36.700 thought it was

00:48:37.220 99% reliable,

00:48:39.340 what would you

00:48:40.300 pay right now

00:48:42.000 with no

00:48:42.440 symptoms?

00:48:43.820 So only the

00:48:44.640 people who

00:48:45.400 don't have any

00:48:46.140 reason to think

00:48:46.760 that they have

00:48:47.260 it, what

00:48:49.040 would you pay?

00:48:52.620 So I would

00:48:53.660 say I would

00:48:54.260 pay, I

00:48:55.220 you know, well

00:48:56.800 mine's different

00:48:57.760 because, you

00:48:58.800 know, my

00:48:59.540 income is

00:49:00.240 higher, but

00:49:02.180 let's say

00:49:02.860 I'd probably

00:49:06.540 pay, well

00:49:08.640 instead of

00:49:09.220 saying what I'd

00:49:10.500 pay, because

00:49:11.340 I'd be willing

00:49:11.900 to overpay in

00:49:13.000 this situation, so

00:49:13.980 that's not fair,

00:49:15.000 but let's say I

00:49:15.800 had a normal

00:49:16.600 job and I

00:49:18.020 was a normal

00:49:18.580 person, it's

00:49:19.160 hard for me to

00:49:19.680 imagine that,

00:49:20.260 but I'd

00:49:21.980 probably pay

00:49:22.680 $250,

00:49:24.400 and I

00:49:27.520 might pay it

00:49:28.260 four times a

00:49:30.100 year, just

00:49:31.600 to test every

00:49:32.420 once in a

00:49:32.780 while, so I

00:49:34.640 think, but

00:49:35.940 anyway, let's

00:49:36.480 say you might

00:49:37.320 pay, you'd be

00:49:38.640 willing to pay

00:49:39.520 less, maybe you

00:49:40.260 would pay $25

00:49:41.400 or $100, so

00:49:43.960 everybody's,

00:49:44.980 somebody says

00:49:45.560 zero, I like

00:49:48.120 your attitude,

00:49:48.860 the ones who

00:49:49.260 wouldn't pay,

00:49:49.680 would pay

00:49:49.980 zero, all

00:49:50.780 right, so I'm

00:49:51.060 seeing some

00:49:51.520 numbers come

00:49:52.260 through, $50,

00:49:54.520 $5, $20,

00:49:56.080 $99, $300,

00:49:58.080 zero, etc.

00:49:59.800 All right, so

00:50:00.360 here's my

00:50:00.700 point, if it

00:50:02.320 were legal for

00:50:03.700 more companies to

00:50:04.480 make these at-home

00:50:05.640 testing kits, I

00:50:07.520 would imagine

00:50:07.980 capitalism would

00:50:08.880 ramp up to do

00:50:09.560 that pretty

00:50:09.920 quickly, because

00:50:10.560 the profit

00:50:12.120 potential would

00:50:12.780 be enormous,

00:50:13.780 so it could be

00:50:15.080 just that the

00:50:15.780 president needs

00:50:16.340 to remove some

00:50:16.940 more red tape,

00:50:17.660 but I don't know

00:50:18.140 enough about that

00:50:18.740 situation, or

00:50:20.140 even if it

00:50:20.800 would be safe

00:50:21.500 to do that.

00:50:22.480 Here's some

00:50:22.900 good news.

00:50:24.840 Israel gets 0.99

00:50:27.860 a FDA approval

00:50:29.520 for study of

00:50:30.840 treatment of

00:50:31.540 Pluristem, so

00:50:34.160 it's a new

00:50:35.280 experimental drug

00:50:36.140 that Israelis

00:50:37.380 gave to six

00:50:38.640 critical patients

00:50:41.620 who are the

00:50:42.260 ventilator types,

00:50:44.420 so it's six

00:50:45.280 patients who

00:50:46.120 in the normal

00:50:46.680 world, you

00:50:47.860 know, maybe

00:50:48.200 four or five

00:50:49.080 of them would

00:50:49.480 die.

00:50:50.480 So once you

00:50:51.220 get to that

00:50:52.000 advanced stage

00:50:52.860 where you're

00:50:53.460 on the

00:50:53.720 ventilator, your

00:50:55.060 prognosis turns

00:50:56.120 really bad

00:50:57.080 really fast.

00:50:58.200 So if they

00:50:58.740 tested six

00:51:00.060 people who

00:51:01.120 are at that

00:51:01.660 stage of

00:51:02.400 really critical,

00:51:03.760 if the drug

00:51:05.100 didn't work,

00:51:07.180 you'd expect

00:51:07.920 something like

00:51:08.600 three or four

00:51:09.180 of them to

00:51:09.580 die, because

00:51:10.940 that's just

00:51:11.440 the, at

00:51:12.260 least.

00:51:12.940 You might

00:51:13.540 expect all

00:51:14.060 six of them

00:51:14.600 to die, and 0.95

00:51:15.600 that wouldn't

00:51:16.000 even be

00:51:16.400 unusual.

00:51:16.800 But I

00:51:17.780 would say

00:51:18.220 two to

00:51:19.700 five dying

00:51:20.460 is almost

00:51:21.240 guaranteed if

00:51:23.580 you gave

00:51:24.140 them a drug

00:51:24.640 that didn't

00:51:24.980 do anything.

00:51:25.780 Wouldn't you

00:51:26.180 say?

00:51:27.060 Six critically

00:51:28.080 ill people?

00:51:29.080 Now, it's

00:51:29.420 not big

00:51:29.800 enough for

00:51:30.200 a proper

00:51:30.880 analysis, but

00:51:33.620 given that if

00:51:35.020 you took any

00:51:35.640 six people who

00:51:36.920 are on

00:51:37.220 ventilators for

00:51:38.040 this, they're

00:51:39.020 not all going

00:51:39.680 home, ever,

00:51:41.380 right?

00:51:41.840 Would you agree

00:51:42.360 with that?

00:51:43.380 They're not

00:51:43.860 all six going

00:51:44.760 home.

00:51:46.340 Unfortunately, that

00:51:47.200 just doesn't

00:51:48.060 happen.

00:51:49.360 But all six

00:51:50.080 went home.

00:51:51.780 Actually, I'm

00:51:52.320 exaggerating.

00:51:53.200 All six got

00:51:55.180 off critical

00:51:55.880 care.

00:51:57.040 In other

00:51:57.320 words, they

00:51:57.760 improved enough

00:51:59.040 that it looks

00:52:00.200 like they're

00:52:00.580 going to come

00:52:00.940 off ventilators

00:52:01.800 and be fine.

00:52:03.740 Six out of

00:52:04.520 six.

00:52:06.560 Six out of

00:52:07.360 six.

00:52:08.720 What are the

00:52:09.880 statistical odds?

00:52:11.220 Let's say

00:52:11.720 everybody's telling

00:52:12.420 the truth and

00:52:13.200 there's nothing

00:52:13.660 that we don't

00:52:14.140 know.

00:52:15.580 Statistically,

00:52:16.600 what are the

00:52:17.280 odds they would

00:52:17.840 get six out of

00:52:18.640 six?

00:52:21.880 I don't know,

00:52:22.640 a thousand to

00:52:23.260 one or something,

00:52:23.980 pretty low.

00:52:24.820 Now, of course,

00:52:25.400 it's not enough

00:52:26.180 to be comfortable.

00:52:27.440 You still have to

00:52:27.880 do the tests.

00:52:28.480 Who knows if

00:52:29.040 there's some, you

00:52:30.460 know, it might be

00:52:31.000 unhealthy in

00:52:31.680 different ways, so

00:52:32.720 it needs to be

00:52:33.160 tested, but it's

00:52:34.300 pretty positive.

00:52:36.020 Pretty positive.

00:52:36.620 I told you

00:52:37.960 the other day

00:52:38.460 I was getting

00:52:39.000 in a debate

00:52:39.840 online with

00:52:40.740 somebody who

00:52:41.200 knows way

00:52:41.820 more than I

00:52:42.380 do about

00:52:42.920 epidemiology and

00:52:44.880 biology, etc.,

00:52:46.480 a Professor

00:52:48.660 Bergstrom, and

00:52:50.840 he had made a

00:52:51.360 claim that I

00:52:51.940 challenged, but I

00:52:53.380 want to now take

00:52:55.400 his side and

00:52:56.840 suggest a better

00:52:57.620 way he could

00:52:58.280 have persuaded

00:52:59.200 me, and it's

00:53:00.480 this.

00:53:01.240 His claim was

00:53:02.300 that flattening

00:53:04.440 the curve did

00:53:06.320 not simply

00:53:07.160 delay, did

00:53:10.460 not simply

00:53:11.020 delay things,

00:53:12.460 but rather

00:53:13.120 reduced the

00:53:15.320 total number

00:53:15.860 of people who

00:53:16.440 would die.

00:53:18.160 And I said,

00:53:19.200 what's the

00:53:21.020 logic for that?

00:53:22.460 Because extending

00:53:23.740 it, by definition,

00:53:26.160 shouldn't change

00:53:26.940 the area under

00:53:27.840 the curve.

00:53:28.700 Like, what would

00:53:29.240 be the mechanism

00:53:30.080 that would change

00:53:31.660 the area under

00:53:32.380 the curve unless

00:53:33.060 you had a vaccine

00:53:33.740 or something, and

00:53:34.460 we don't see that

00:53:35.120 happening?

00:53:35.920 I mean, it's not

00:53:36.500 anytime soon.

00:53:38.480 And so his

00:53:39.000 argument, he

00:53:41.220 tried a few

00:53:41.720 approaches, and I

00:53:42.560 just said, I'm

00:53:43.820 not getting that.

00:53:45.120 Like, I'm open to

00:53:45.960 the argument, but

00:53:48.120 I'm not hearing

00:53:48.840 it.

00:53:49.840 And it turns out

00:53:51.260 that there is

00:53:52.200 support for the

00:53:53.140 idea that

00:53:54.680 flattening the

00:53:55.420 curve does reduce

00:53:57.160 the total number

00:53:58.080 of people who get

00:53:59.060 it.

00:53:59.740 And now I'm

00:54:00.320 going to improve

00:54:01.040 that argument, and

00:54:02.920 it goes like

00:54:03.420 this.

00:54:04.140 If you let the

00:54:05.840 virus go unchecked

00:54:07.820 and it has that

00:54:08.420 big infection bump

00:54:10.640 and then tails

00:54:12.000 off, that would 0.94

00:54:13.460 be similar to

00:54:14.320 driving a car at

00:54:15.500 100 miles an

00:54:16.260 hour and then

00:54:17.500 hitting the

00:54:18.020 brakes.

00:54:18.880 If you're driving

00:54:19.500 100 miles an

00:54:20.220 hour and you

00:54:20.460 hit the brakes,

00:54:21.360 you might

00:54:22.440 overshoot where

00:54:24.100 you want it to

00:54:24.760 stop, because you

00:54:26.020 can't stop that

00:54:26.740 quickly at 100

00:54:27.440 miles an hour.

00:54:28.040 And so the

00:54:29.140 virus unchecked,

00:54:31.460 it's going to

00:54:32.980 overshoot the

00:54:33.780 mark of herd

00:54:34.840 immunity because

00:54:35.720 it's just so

00:54:36.400 fast.

00:54:37.600 And even though

00:54:38.440 your town might

00:54:39.700 reach herd

00:54:40.180 immunity, people 0.99

00:54:42.820 are still traveling

00:54:43.560 and stuff, so

00:54:45.060 it just

00:54:45.820 overshoots.

00:54:47.880 Whereas, if you

00:54:48.860 are traveling 20

00:54:49.720 miles an hour,

00:54:51.060 which would be a

00:54:52.040 flattened curve,

00:54:53.560 and you're getting

00:54:54.500 close to herd

00:54:55.240 immunity, you can

00:54:56.660 gently apply the

00:54:57.580 brakes, and

00:54:58.020 sort of hint

00:54:59.580 herd immunity.

00:55:01.560 Now, analogies

00:55:03.000 are not

00:55:03.540 persuasive in

00:55:06.340 and of

00:55:06.640 themselves, but

00:55:07.780 they're really

00:55:08.260 good for

00:55:09.440 explaining a

00:55:10.180 concept that

00:55:11.020 you hadn't

00:55:11.340 heard before or

00:55:12.220 thought of in

00:55:12.940 that way.

00:55:14.060 So I would

00:55:14.720 say that it

00:55:15.160 is more

00:55:15.520 persuasive because

00:55:16.480 I am convinced

00:55:17.380 that there is

00:55:18.140 science behind

00:55:18.900 the concept

00:55:19.620 that flattening

00:55:20.920 the curve could

00:55:22.140 actually save

00:55:22.760 lives.

00:55:24.280 Now, that

00:55:25.040 assumption is

00:55:26.520 based on

00:55:26.940 different viruses.

00:55:28.020 So I would

00:55:30.360 throw this

00:55:31.120 caution into

00:55:32.080 the conversation

00:55:32.940 that if you

00:55:35.320 have a virus

00:55:35.940 that has a

00:55:36.600 super high

00:55:37.920 asymptomatic

00:55:39.480 number and

00:55:40.460 also a super

00:55:41.380 long incubation

00:55:43.140 period, I

00:55:44.840 don't know if

00:55:46.320 the flattening

00:55:47.840 the curve works

00:55:48.640 the same in

00:55:49.340 that case.

00:55:50.400 Because it

00:55:50.980 seems to me,

00:55:51.620 and this has

00:55:51.960 been my

00:55:52.300 argument, that

00:55:53.860 if 90% of the

00:55:54.960 people in

00:55:55.360 jail got the

00:55:57.040 coronavirus,

00:55:58.300 there's nothing

00:55:59.260 you can do to

00:55:59.940 stop it.

00:56:01.020 So my

00:56:01.500 argument was,

00:56:02.660 you're going

00:56:03.060 to get the

00:56:03.440 herd immunity

00:56:04.060 no matter

00:56:04.620 what.

00:56:05.640 You can do

00:56:06.420 everything you

00:56:06.960 want.

00:56:07.220 I'm hearing

00:56:07.560 people say

00:56:08.140 that there's

00:56:09.000 some countries

00:56:10.420 that are

00:56:11.560 successfully

00:56:12.160 driving the

00:56:12.820 infection rate

00:56:13.540 to zero,

00:56:14.560 to which I

00:56:15.760 say, that's

00:56:17.640 not a thing,

00:56:18.780 unless they're

00:56:19.400 also buttoning

00:56:20.480 up the

00:56:20.780 border, because

00:56:22.180 it doesn't

00:56:22.600 matter if

00:56:23.040 they drive

00:56:23.540 to zero, as

00:56:24.260 long as

00:56:24.580 somebody else

00:56:25.140 didn't, it's

00:56:26.420 coming back,

00:56:27.800 maybe slowly,

00:56:28.980 maybe quickly,

00:56:30.200 but there's no

00:56:31.420 such thing as 0.74

00:56:32.280 an individual

00:56:33.380 country driving

00:56:35.680 it to zero

00:56:36.320 and still having

00:56:37.180 an airport.

00:56:38.840 So I'm

00:56:41.000 seeing magical

00:56:41.680 thinking about

00:56:42.520 people who

00:56:42.980 think we can

00:56:43.480 drive it to

00:56:44.020 zero in this

00:56:44.620 country.

00:56:45.380 That's not a

00:56:46.140 thing.

00:56:46.700 I'm seeing

00:56:47.100 magical thinking

00:56:47.900 that we could

00:56:48.380 ever have enough

00:56:49.000 tests, at

00:56:50.320 least in the

00:56:50.920 next several

00:56:51.620 months when

00:56:52.220 things are

00:56:52.640 critical, to

00:56:53.780 test our way

00:56:54.620 to do

00:56:55.780 anything useful.

00:56:58.360 So those are

00:56:59.160 just magical

00:56:59.700 thinkings.

00:57:00.340 But I do

00:57:01.580 think there is

00:57:02.160 something to

00:57:02.860 the flattening

00:57:03.580 the curve

00:57:04.040 could, don't

00:57:05.900 know if it

00:57:06.280 works with

00:57:06.680 this virus

00:57:07.320 because of

00:57:07.700 that long

00:57:09.100 incubation

00:57:09.620 period, but

00:57:10.840 could lower

00:57:12.380 the number of

00:57:12.960 people dead.

00:57:13.540 But I don't

00:57:14.020 think we have

00:57:14.580 time to wait

00:57:15.520 for it anyway.

00:57:20.320 So my

00:57:21.040 favorite Twitter

00:57:22.960 economist, Joshua

00:57:24.400 Gans, made

00:57:26.280 the statement

00:57:27.200 that a quick

00:57:28.420 way to

00:57:28.880 calculate whether

00:57:30.600 it was worth

00:57:31.680 it to damage

00:57:34.580 the economy to

00:57:36.560 save X number

00:57:37.560 of lives, that

00:57:38.500 the numbers you

00:57:39.120 would look at

00:57:39.740 was the

00:57:40.580 estimated, I

00:57:41.260 think, $500

00:57:42.520 billion a

00:57:43.280 quarter in

00:57:44.640 lost GDP.

00:57:46.080 so that's

00:57:48.060 what you

00:57:48.320 look at.

00:57:48.800 Okay, we'll

00:57:49.120 lose $500

00:57:50.060 billion a

00:57:50.580 quarter, but

00:57:52.000 we can save

00:57:53.020 X tens of

00:57:54.540 thousands of

00:57:55.100 lives, potentially

00:57:56.620 a million, maybe

00:57:57.940 two million, based

00:57:59.080 on the high

00:57:59.580 numbers.

00:58:00.540 Here was my

00:58:01.460 response, and

00:58:02.720 I'm not

00:58:04.140 especially good

00:58:05.000 at this, so

00:58:06.720 somebody who's

00:58:08.060 smarter, check

00:58:08.780 my numbers,

00:58:09.400 okay?

00:58:11.460 Because I was

00:58:12.180 trying to

00:58:12.540 calculate the

00:58:13.160 part that was

00:58:13.620 missing, which

00:58:14.640 is how many

00:58:15.100 people die if

00:58:15.940 you damage

00:58:16.440 the economy.

00:58:17.500 Now, keep

00:58:17.940 in mind, if

00:58:19.860 we were to

00:58:20.200 go back to

00:58:20.680 work today, I

00:58:22.520 don't think the

00:58:23.240 economy is

00:58:24.260 mortally wounded.

00:58:26.140 If we go

00:58:26.920 back today.

00:58:28.060 If we go

00:58:28.840 back at the

00:58:29.700 end of May, I

00:58:31.460 also don't

00:58:32.440 think the

00:58:33.180 economy is

00:58:33.900 mortally

00:58:34.400 wounded, and I

00:58:35.520 would still

00:58:35.860 look for a

00:58:36.260 good 2021.

00:58:37.820 But, if we

00:58:38.680 really tried to

00:58:39.340 drive infections

00:58:40.200 down to

00:58:40.660 something close

00:58:41.440 to zero, I

00:58:42.880 think you're

00:58:43.220 talking about

00:58:43.760 August, right?

00:58:45.940 And in

00:58:47.160 August, I'm

00:58:48.500 no longer

00:58:49.040 confident that

00:58:50.000 I can tell

00:58:50.460 you that we

00:58:50.900 can revive the

00:58:51.760 economy the

00:58:52.920 same way we

00:58:53.520 could if we

00:58:54.000 started now.

00:58:55.640 I mean, there

00:58:55.980 might be a

00:58:56.500 permanent effect.

00:58:58.200 We could get

00:58:58.800 behind China, our

00:59:00.340 military spending

00:59:01.480 might be

00:59:02.360 impossible, we

00:59:03.380 could be less

00:59:05.520 safe in a million

00:59:06.180 ways.

00:59:07.160 So, by the way,

00:59:07.600 I looked for an

00:59:08.700 estimate of how

00:59:09.340 many people

00:59:09.780 extra die in

00:59:12.480 poverty, and I

00:59:13.440 got an estimate

00:59:14.180 from some

00:59:15.220 website, who

00:59:15.820 knows how

00:59:16.240 credible anything

00:59:18.840 is, but there

00:59:19.920 was one estimate

00:59:20.560 over in Great

00:59:21.180 Britain that 0.90

00:59:22.380 you'd have

00:59:23.280 500 at the

00:59:24.140 high end, so

00:59:25.160 this is the

00:59:25.580 high end, about

00:59:27.060 500 extra

00:59:28.020 deaths for every

00:59:29.620 100,000 people

00:59:30.720 impoverished.

00:59:32.120 So, if you

00:59:32.740 impoverish an

00:59:33.540 extra 100,000

00:59:34.400 people, 500 of

00:59:35.500 them are likely

00:59:36.540 to die that

00:59:37.120 wouldn't.

00:59:37.320 So, let's

00:59:38.800 work that

00:59:39.680 through.

00:59:40.240 Let's say that

00:59:40.960 we wait too

00:59:42.480 long to

00:59:43.200 revive the

00:59:43.680 economy, and

00:59:45.100 it causes 50

00:59:46.240 million citizens

00:59:47.260 to be

00:59:48.500 impoverished in

00:59:50.080 a way that

00:59:50.520 they would not

00:59:51.040 have otherwise.

00:59:52.360 Is that too

00:59:52.920 high?

00:59:53.400 50 million?

00:59:54.340 Well, everything

00:59:55.080 depends on how

00:59:55.720 long we wait,

00:59:56.500 right?

00:59:57.500 At some point, it

00:59:58.300 would be 50

00:59:58.880 million.

00:59:59.880 I don't know if

01:00:00.600 that happens in

01:00:01.220 June, but at

01:00:02.900 some point, 50

01:00:04.400 million people would

01:00:05.240 be impoverished.

01:00:07.320 50 million people

01:00:08.960 impoverished at

01:00:10.660 500 extra deaths

01:00:12.020 per 100,000,

01:00:13.060 check my math,

01:00:14.440 would be 250,000

01:00:16.540 extra dead per

01:00:17.600 year just from

01:00:19.100 the poverty.

01:00:20.360 But keep in

01:00:21.060 mind, poverty

01:00:22.680 is not, it

01:00:24.220 doesn't end in

01:00:24.920 the calendar

01:00:25.360 year.

01:00:26.040 If you've got

01:00:26.980 that much

01:00:27.420 poverty, if 50

01:00:30.380 million people are

01:00:31.140 suddenly impoverished,

01:00:32.400 that doesn't fix

01:00:33.400 itself in a year.

01:00:35.140 So, let's say

01:00:35.640 four years.

01:00:37.320 So, let's say

01:00:37.840 four years of a

01:00:38.920 quarter million

01:00:39.500 people dying

01:00:40.320 extra from

01:00:41.180 poverty, that's

01:00:42.300 a million people.

01:00:43.720 So, I would say

01:00:44.500 that the risk of,

01:00:45.480 say, waiting until

01:00:46.200 the end of the

01:00:46.760 summer, and

01:00:47.260 again, nobody

01:00:47.900 knows.

01:00:49.400 These are all

01:00:49.960 just gut instincts

01:00:51.120 based on who

01:00:52.540 knows what.

01:00:53.460 So, there's no

01:00:54.020 science in what

01:00:54.740 I'm going to say

01:00:55.180 next.

01:00:56.340 It's my judgment

01:00:57.880 based on living on

01:00:59.020 this earth as

01:01:00.100 long as I have,

01:01:01.460 that if we were

01:01:02.100 to wait to, say,

01:01:02.920 the end of the

01:01:03.520 summer, we

01:01:05.700 would probably

01:01:06.340 put a quarter

01:01:08.200 of a million to

01:01:08.900 a million people

01:01:09.520 at risk.

01:01:10.380 But if we were

01:01:11.060 to go back to

01:01:11.760 work with full

01:01:13.060 semi-mitigation,

01:01:16.560 semi-mitigation,

01:01:17.900 Dr. Drew, you

01:01:18.840 missed all the

01:01:19.360 good doctor stuff.

01:01:21.420 Just joining?

01:01:22.640 You'll have to

01:01:23.580 check out the

01:01:24.060 early stuff and

01:01:24.660 find out if I

01:01:25.380 said everything

01:01:25.860 wrong.

01:01:26.140 I'm way over

01:01:27.420 my skis on

01:01:28.160 this, Dr.

01:01:28.720 Drew.

01:01:30.240 I'm way over

01:01:31.440 my skis, so I

01:01:32.680 need you to

01:01:33.580 pull me back

01:01:35.040 into the

01:01:36.100 place where

01:01:39.040 cartoonists

01:01:40.100 should be.

01:01:42.940 But anyway,

01:01:44.160 the poverty

01:01:45.260 alone could

01:01:45.980 kill a million

01:01:46.540 people if we

01:01:47.840 wait too long

01:01:48.520 to revive the

01:01:51.020 economy.

01:01:52.240 And how

01:01:53.200 many people

01:01:53.700 would you

01:01:54.040 expect to die

01:01:54.820 from the

01:01:55.340 virus?

01:01:56.640 If we phase

01:01:57.840 back to work

01:01:58.500 the way the

01:01:59.100 federal government

01:01:59.800 said, or some

01:02:00.660 version of that,

01:02:01.400 the states are

01:02:02.000 violating the

01:02:03.040 guidelines, but

01:02:03.780 they get to

01:02:05.340 choose, right?

01:02:05.920 It's up to the

01:02:06.460 states to violate

01:02:07.760 the guidelines.

01:02:09.160 How many are

01:02:10.520 likely to die

01:02:12.200 extra if we

01:02:14.400 just put a

01:02:15.860 glass wall

01:02:17.700 around the

01:02:18.240 nursing homes?

01:02:19.400 We protect

01:02:20.260 the most

01:02:21.460 vulnerable, the

01:02:22.860 elderly, we're

01:02:23.520 not going to go

01:02:23.980 back to work

01:02:24.480 anyway.

01:02:24.840 they don't

01:02:25.860 work, or

01:02:27.200 at least some

01:02:27.980 portion of

01:02:28.420 them.

01:02:29.280 And what if

01:02:30.440 we just wore

01:02:31.540 our masks, did

01:02:32.540 our distancing,

01:02:33.820 closed the

01:02:34.540 streets in front

01:02:35.240 of restaurants,

01:02:36.660 maybe paused the

01:02:38.160 big events, the

01:02:39.260 stadium events,

01:02:40.320 until the end of

01:02:41.500 the year, until we

01:02:42.140 know what's

01:02:42.460 what.

01:02:43.180 But if we did

01:02:44.040 all of that

01:02:44.640 stuff, would

01:02:46.840 we lose 250,000

01:02:48.540 people?

01:02:48.900 because I

01:02:50.780 don't think

01:02:51.280 so.

01:02:52.940 I don't think

01:02:53.520 so.

01:02:54.240 But again, I

01:02:56.480 can't calculate

01:02:57.180 it.

01:02:58.320 So anyway, I

01:02:59.060 would just

01:02:59.660 summarize this,

01:03:01.800 that I do

01:03:03.120 buy the

01:03:03.700 argument, and

01:03:05.220 I did not

01:03:05.820 before, because

01:03:06.580 I hadn't heard

01:03:06.980 of the reason.

01:03:07.920 But now that I've

01:03:08.440 heard the reason,

01:03:09.120 I accept that

01:03:10.640 there's some

01:03:11.100 scientific or

01:03:12.060 at least logical

01:03:13.440 backing for the

01:03:15.000 idea that

01:03:15.540 flattening the

01:03:16.280 curve could

01:03:17.440 actually reduce

01:03:18.300 the total

01:03:18.740 number of

01:03:19.180 people who

01:03:19.560 ever die,

01:03:21.080 because when

01:03:22.680 you flatten

01:03:23.160 it, you have

01:03:24.060 less risk of

01:03:25.680 overshooting

01:03:26.680 herd immunity.

01:03:27.940 So let's say

01:03:28.580 herd immunity

01:03:29.160 was 60% of

01:03:30.280 the public

01:03:30.800 having it.

01:03:31.800 If you let

01:03:32.800 it go free,

01:03:34.360 it goes right

01:03:35.280 past that,

01:03:36.640 and maybe

01:03:37.340 stops at 70%,

01:03:38.700 you got your

01:03:40.440 herd immunity,

01:03:41.700 but that's a

01:03:42.460 lot of people

01:03:42.960 who got it

01:03:43.340 infected that

01:03:44.000 didn't need

01:03:44.340 it to be.

01:03:45.120 If you slow

01:03:45.920 it with

01:03:46.280 flattening the

01:03:46.940 curve,

01:03:47.440 you might

01:03:48.020 be able to

01:03:48.460 inch up

01:03:48.940 on herd

01:03:49.360 immunity,

01:03:50.800 maybe hit

01:03:51.360 it more

01:03:51.640 gently,

01:03:52.280 don't

01:03:52.640 overshoot

01:03:53.080 it,

01:03:53.820 but you've

01:03:54.540 got to

01:03:54.760 calculate the

01:03:55.380 economic hit

01:03:56.220 for waiting

01:03:56.880 that long.

01:03:58.220 So that's

01:03:58.640 what I

01:03:58.900 think.

01:04:01.480 I will

01:04:02.140 give you a

01:04:02.700 better review

01:04:03.240 of the

01:04:03.760 Plague of

01:04:04.420 Corruption

01:04:04.800 movie when

01:04:05.580 the actual

01:04:06.200 full-length

01:04:06.820 movie is

01:04:07.340 available,

01:04:07.900 or if I

01:04:08.440 dig into

01:04:09.160 the book.

01:04:10.240 So my

01:04:10.840 current

01:04:11.740 feeling is

01:04:13.340 that it is

01:04:13.780 not credible

01:04:14.480 as presented,

01:04:16.340 because you

01:04:16.640 haven't heard

01:04:17.000 of the

01:04:17.160 other

01:04:17.340 side,

01:04:18.340 so nothing

01:04:18.900 is credible

01:04:19.480 until you

01:04:19.880 hear the

01:04:20.100 other

01:04:20.260 side.

01:04:21.520 But I'll

01:04:22.660 keep watching

01:04:23.060 it.

01:04:24.020 I'm not

01:04:25.500 going to

01:04:25.740 dismiss it

01:04:26.340 yet.

01:04:27.580 So I'm

01:04:28.180 going to

01:04:28.360 give it

01:04:28.640 its due

01:04:29.440 of credit,

01:04:30.700 because the

01:04:31.120 people involved,

01:04:32.300 this Dr.

01:04:33.580 Judy

01:04:33.920 Mikovits,

01:04:36.420 she has

01:04:37.160 credentials.

01:04:38.640 If she

01:04:39.120 did not

01:04:39.500 have

01:04:39.720 credentials,

01:04:41.020 I'd

01:04:41.640 probably just

01:04:42.100 blow it

01:04:42.460 off.

01:04:42.740 but she

01:04:43.480 does have

01:04:43.980 exactly the

01:04:44.620 right

01:04:44.800 credentials.

01:04:46.220 So although

01:04:48.820 I'm not

01:04:49.360 convinced,

01:04:50.880 I have

01:04:51.240 not heard

01:04:51.620 the full

01:04:52.000 story,

01:04:53.080 and I'll

01:04:54.540 listen to

01:04:54.900 it.

01:04:55.600 The parts

01:04:56.180 I'm less

01:04:57.020 likely to

01:04:57.620 believe are

01:04:58.940 anybody else's

01:05:00.160 interpretation of

01:05:02.600 the inner

01:05:03.340 intentions of

01:05:04.160 strangers.

01:05:05.320 That's where

01:05:06.120 it gets

01:05:06.440 dicey, so

01:05:07.480 we'll see.

01:05:08.900 somebody

01:05:09.880 says, can

01:05:10.400 we

01:05:10.600 undershoot

01:05:11.420 too?

01:05:12.720 I don't

01:05:13.380 think you

01:05:13.700 can

01:05:13.880 undershoot

01:05:14.420 by

01:05:15.000 flattening

01:05:16.460 the curve,

01:05:17.540 because

01:05:18.280 flattening

01:05:19.480 it doesn't

01:05:20.000 stop it,

01:05:20.540 so it

01:05:20.880 would just

01:05:21.060 take as

01:05:21.860 long as

01:05:22.160 it took,

01:05:22.620 but you'd

01:05:22.980 hit herd

01:05:23.860 immunity.

01:05:27.800 All

01:05:28.320 right.

01:05:32.480 So Mary

01:05:33.300 says,

01:05:34.600 is pointing

01:05:35.380 out that I

01:05:35.960 think she's

01:05:36.600 not credible,

01:05:37.560 but Christina

01:05:38.200 says she

01:05:38.780 is, so

01:05:39.820 maybe it's

01:05:40.960 sexism that 0.93

01:05:42.420 makes me

01:05:42.780 think she's

01:05:43.280 not credible.

01:05:44.160 You may

01:05:44.540 have missed

01:05:44.860 the first

01:05:45.300 part of the

01:05:45.660 periscope where

01:05:46.360 I addressed

01:05:46.760 that.

01:05:47.660 Christina

01:05:48.080 listened to

01:05:48.840 it, and

01:05:50.040 I watched

01:05:50.620 it, and

01:05:51.700 my sense

01:05:53.360 of credibility

01:05:53.980 was about

01:05:54.700 her vibe

01:05:55.420 and her

01:05:55.920 physicality.

01:05:58.220 There was

01:05:58.860 something about

01:05:59.520 it that was

01:05:59.880 raising a

01:06:00.360 flag, but

01:06:01.820 it could be

01:06:02.740 sexism,

01:06:03.840 because how

01:06:04.220 would I

01:06:04.480 know?

01:06:05.000 The whole

01:06:05.440 point of

01:06:05.940 bias is that

01:06:06.820 you're the

01:06:07.120 one who

01:06:07.380 doesn't know,

01:06:07.920 right?

01:06:09.260 I can't

01:06:09.680 rule it

01:06:09.980 out.

01:06:10.460 I'm just

01:06:10.800 guarding

01:06:11.740 against it,

01:06:12.540 and I

01:06:12.820 don't think

01:06:13.340 it is,

01:06:14.500 but I'm

01:06:14.900 not the

01:06:15.200 person who

01:06:15.600 can rule

01:06:15.980 it out.

01:06:17.000 It doesn't

01:06:17.540 work that

01:06:17.880 way.

01:06:18.340 All right.

01:06:18.860 That's

01:06:19.140 enough for

01:06:19.420 now.

01:06:21.800 Oh,

01:06:22.460 Grinnell

01:06:22.820 dropped off

01:06:23.420 a few more

01:06:23.940 files to

01:06:24.500 bar,

01:06:24.860 somebody says.

01:06:28.580 Did I

01:06:31.160 recognize it

01:06:31.800 as a

01:06:32.100 persuasion

01:06:32.680 technique?

01:06:33.540 The plague

01:06:34.120 of corruption

01:06:34.580 movies as a

01:06:35.380 persuasion

01:06:35.940 technique?

01:06:36.500 technique.

01:06:37.180 Well,

01:06:37.800 only not a

01:06:39.140 special one,

01:06:40.140 not in terms

01:06:40.820 of using the

01:06:41.500 tools of

01:06:42.040 hypnosis or

01:06:42.740 anything exotic,

01:06:43.940 but only in

01:06:44.560 the sense that

01:06:45.220 it is a

01:06:45.940 credible person

01:06:46.880 telling a

01:06:49.020 story.

01:06:49.940 So if you've

01:06:50.640 got a credible

01:06:51.220 person telling

01:06:52.020 a story,

01:06:53.120 it's persuasive.

01:06:54.980 It's obviously

01:06:55.880 persuasive,

01:06:56.940 but I didn't

01:06:57.460 see anything that

01:06:59.180 I would call

01:06:59.720 technique that

01:07:01.100 goes beyond the

01:07:01.880 obvious.

01:07:02.260 all right.

01:07:05.480 That's it for

01:07:06.000 now,

01:07:06.620 and I will

01:07:07.120 talk to you

01:07:07.740 tonight.

01:07:08.760 Thank you.

01:07:08.880 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 08, 2020

Episode 962 Scott Adams： No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy

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