Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 12, 2020


Episode 969 Scott Adams: I'm Here. Where Are You?


Episode Stats

Length

53 minutes

Words per Minute

151.0221

Word Count

8,038

Sentence Count

194

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

In this episode of the podcast, I'm joined by my good friend Scott to talk about how he got lucky with a minibike, and how he was the first person in the country to call for a ban on commercial airline flights from China.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Well, I saw the most fascinating thing today.
00:00:14.760 Want to hear about it?
00:00:16.400 Yeah, I know you do.
00:00:17.840 That's why you're here.
00:00:19.260 You're going to wind down, get ready for a great night of sleep.
00:00:24.300 It's going to be a good one.
00:00:25.800 Not for everybody, but for many of you.
00:00:28.240 Yep, well, we've got stories.
00:00:34.540 Let me tell you the story about my minibike.
00:00:39.560 Yes, when I was 13, and for years before that,
00:00:42.960 all I wanted was to own a little minibike,
00:00:45.360 a tiny little bike that was mowed the size of a lawnmower.
00:00:50.860 But, man, I wanted one.
00:00:52.580 I mowed lawns, and I shoveled snow, and I worked on my uncle's farm.
00:00:56.720 And finally, I'd saved enough to buy a minibike.
00:01:02.140 It was one of the best days of my life.
00:01:04.980 Except my minibike's chain fell off, but no problem.
00:01:09.400 I'd owned bicycles before.
00:01:11.060 How hard could it be?
00:01:12.500 So I put it back on.
00:01:14.180 It went a little longer.
00:01:15.520 Chain fell off again.
00:01:16.520 And I could go up to 100 yards before that chain would fall off again.
00:01:22.640 And for the entire time, I owned that minibike.
00:01:26.080 I never actually got it to work more than a minute or so.
00:01:31.900 And so I remind you of the story I told you that forms one of the stories of my personality.
00:01:42.180 And one of the stories of my personality that I talked about in a prior periscope
00:01:48.020 was that if you dropped me on the island of prisoners,
00:01:51.940 I'd have a tough first week.
00:01:54.040 But eventually, if you came back in a year,
00:01:55.880 I would be running the island of prisoners.
00:01:57.660 So because that sort of fantasy movie script that I run in my head
00:02:04.920 is so baked into my personality intentionally,
00:02:09.440 I intentionally make that part of my code,
00:02:13.560 that when I saw a picture, I was just randomly looking through something,
00:02:17.200 I saw a picture of myself at 13 on that minibike.
00:02:20.400 And I realized, yeah, I've been telling Christina for a while that I want a minibike.
00:02:28.900 And I'm pretty sure she doesn't think that I mean it.
00:02:35.020 Now, I don't have really the situation where it would make sense to have one.
00:02:39.200 But I'm going to get a minibike.
00:02:43.120 I might be 75 when it happens.
00:02:47.180 I might be 95.
00:02:48.080 But when you come back to the island in a year,
00:02:53.360 I'm going to be on that minibike.
00:02:56.480 Because I don't even know if I could stop myself from getting it eventually.
00:03:00.120 It's like just built into my code.
00:03:02.120 I'm going to have to make that happen someday.
00:03:05.360 I'd like to compare my medical recommendations
00:03:11.460 to the medical community.
00:03:13.720 I think this is fair, don't you?
00:03:17.400 Because my qualifications for medical advice are nothing.
00:03:23.540 And of course, the medical community is highly, highly competent.
00:03:28.780 So there was me calling for an immediate end to flights from China.
00:03:33.640 That was on January 24th, a week before the president called for it.
00:03:42.060 And before any of the medical experts called for it.
00:03:45.760 So let's score that one for Scott.
00:03:48.580 Because it turns out my medical advice on virus transmission was pretty good.
00:03:56.080 Now, again, I'm not saying that that makes me qualified.
00:04:01.000 Nothing like that.
00:04:02.580 I'm still an idiot.
00:04:03.780 I don't know anything about these medical scientific things.
00:04:08.500 But that's why we're scoring it.
00:04:10.880 Okay, I got lucky on one.
00:04:12.500 All right.
00:04:12.820 So, all right.
00:04:14.080 I got lucky on one.
00:04:15.200 Then it was when I was calling for masks,
00:04:19.040 when all of the medical community were saying,
00:04:21.700 no, it'll just make it worse.
00:04:23.980 You don't need no masks.
00:04:26.480 And I'm pretty sure I was the first public person to say,
00:04:31.800 bullshit, bullshit, I'm sorry.
00:04:34.360 That can't possibly be true.
00:04:36.100 I based that on my large reservoir of no medical knowledge whatsoever,
00:04:42.300 on top of my gigantic foundation of no scientific knowledge whatsoever.
00:04:50.100 Okay, I got lucky on that one.
00:04:52.020 Everybody now agrees masks are pretty important.
00:04:56.100 So, all right.
00:04:56.600 So, you know, it's two for me, zero for the experts.
00:05:01.340 But there's some things that were sort of a tie,
00:05:06.340 meaning that they said them,
00:05:08.780 but I did probably say them first.
00:05:12.300 For example, when the virus stuff was first emerging,
00:05:18.800 those of you who have been watching me on Periscope,
00:05:20.980 you know I was probably the first person in the country,
00:05:24.820 at least, you know, sort of in the public view,
00:05:27.280 who said, make sure you get outside and get some sun.
00:05:31.400 Vitamin D will be good for you.
00:05:33.700 Now, I'm not saying that I invented that idea.
00:05:36.880 Indeed, it came from the experts.
00:05:38.360 But have you ever heard so many people tell you to get outside
00:05:42.120 and get in the sun since then?
00:05:44.840 I'm not saying I started it.
00:05:46.940 I'm saying it's a tie,
00:05:48.720 because the experts say it's a good idea.
00:05:51.660 I say it's a good idea.
00:05:54.200 I said it first.
00:05:55.480 I'm pretty sure I beat almost everybody there,
00:05:59.860 which doesn't make me smarter.
00:06:02.600 Clearly, I'm not.
00:06:04.960 But I, you know, am three for three.
00:06:08.600 Then there's the question of the hydroxychloroquine,
00:06:11.020 and here it's no fair at all,
00:06:13.400 because I think you really have to have some serious medical knowledge
00:06:17.520 to make a good recommendation about hydroxychloroquine.
00:06:22.180 But I made one anyway,
00:06:23.420 which was that, given that we all knew it had been prescribed for many years
00:06:29.400 for several different causes,
00:06:31.740 was well understood,
00:06:33.560 the risk of getting this COVID thing,
00:06:35.480 especially for some types of people, was devastating.
00:06:38.760 So from a risk management perspective,
00:06:41.460 given that we had some anecdotal information,
00:06:43.480 I said, we should at least make it an option.
00:06:47.940 Should be a good thing to try,
00:06:49.920 just from a risk management perspective,
00:06:52.980 not from a medical perspective,
00:06:55.200 because it's really,
00:06:56.400 the medical is just part of the larger question,
00:06:59.620 because remember,
00:07:00.320 you could have been saving the economy as well.
00:07:03.040 So you had two upsides,
00:07:05.660 saving people,
00:07:06.780 but also saving the entire economy,
00:07:09.180 which would save more people.
00:07:10.680 So since there was an enormous potential gain,
00:07:15.280 if it worked,
00:07:16.440 or even if it worked some of the time,
00:07:19.700 because the stakes were so high,
00:07:21.640 it would be worth the risk.
00:07:23.440 There was a known risk somewhere in the,
00:07:26.340 well, you know,
00:07:27.160 you can have this if you've got some arthritis,
00:07:30.140 or we'll give this to you for lupus.
00:07:32.500 So what did the experts say?
00:07:35.420 Well, early on,
00:07:36.120 they said,
00:07:36.680 it's going to kill you.
00:07:39.080 That stuff will just kill you.
00:07:40.680 Now,
00:07:43.280 you could argue that if someone else were scoring this one,
00:07:47.860 they might give it to the experts.
00:07:49.640 They might say,
00:07:50.980 Scott,
00:07:51.940 the experts are right.
00:07:53.980 They do not have reliable,
00:07:57.080 double-blind,
00:07:58.040 large-scale studies
00:07:59.600 that would show that this is both safe
00:08:02.220 and efficacious.
00:08:04.500 Scott,
00:08:04.900 don't you know how science works?
00:08:07.900 To which I would say,
00:08:09.500 I don't think you know how decision-making works.
00:08:12.920 Because I know all that stuff.
00:08:15.080 All that stuff you told me.
00:08:17.180 I knew all that.
00:08:18.340 Do you know how decisions are made?
00:08:22.560 Because decisions are made,
00:08:24.780 taking all that
00:08:25.820 and combining it with all the other stuff.
00:08:28.660 And then you weigh the odds
00:08:31.500 and make your decision.
00:08:33.280 So I'm going to score that one for me
00:08:35.360 from,
00:08:36.120 not from a medical perspective,
00:08:37.960 because of course,
00:08:39.120 what do I know about anything medical?
00:08:40.620 But from a risk management perspective
00:08:44.220 and from the fact that we can see
00:08:46.260 a number of other countries
00:08:48.100 are obviously doing exactly this.
00:08:51.240 So we don't know if it works great yet.
00:08:54.080 That's a separate question.
00:08:56.280 I'll never be the one
00:08:58.040 that tells you it works great.
00:08:59.860 How would I know?
00:09:01.020 I don't believe any of the studies.
00:09:03.040 But there's certainly enough
00:09:05.240 to make you think you might
00:09:07.700 that certainly a number of other countries
00:09:10.040 are going at it hard.
00:09:12.200 So I'm four for four.
00:09:17.180 Then you've got the ventilator situation.
00:09:20.560 All right.
00:09:21.400 Now my understanding
00:09:22.420 of the ventilator situation is
00:09:24.240 there's a little bit of a question here.
00:09:28.680 A little bit of a question.
00:09:31.380 Oh, yeah.
00:09:33.400 I've got one more after this.
00:09:35.760 Whether the ventilators are helping people
00:09:37.960 or killing them
00:09:38.800 in the specific case
00:09:40.140 of the COVID patients.
00:09:43.000 Now, you've probably seen
00:09:44.560 on the internet at least,
00:09:46.980 if not in the news.
00:09:48.040 I'm not even sure
00:09:48.580 if the mainstream news
00:09:50.120 has covered these stories,
00:09:51.220 but maybe they have.
00:09:52.560 That maybe the ventilators
00:09:53.720 are making things worse,
00:09:55.460 not better.
00:09:56.220 You've seen that, right?
00:09:59.320 What was my recommendation
00:10:00.940 about ventilators?
00:10:03.220 Well, I didn't know anything
00:10:04.860 about ventilators
00:10:05.720 until I started seeing
00:10:06.840 these reports
00:10:07.680 of, you know,
00:10:09.680 maybe the ventilators are worse.
00:10:12.140 But do you think
00:10:14.380 that people stopped using ventilators
00:10:17.480 the moment people started
00:10:19.520 raising the alarm?
00:10:22.480 Possibly.
00:10:23.040 What I saw
00:10:24.760 was that people
00:10:25.620 were getting better results
00:10:26.760 maybe with these nose cannulas
00:10:29.160 or whatever they are,
00:10:30.000 basically just regular oxygen
00:10:32.200 in a more,
00:10:34.100 less aggressive way.
00:10:36.380 So,
00:10:37.380 I've seen those reports.
00:10:40.160 I don't know what's true.
00:10:41.240 How would I know?
00:10:42.320 How would I know
00:10:43.020 if a nose cannula
00:10:44.140 is better than a ventilator
00:10:46.160 and in what situations?
00:10:49.500 But,
00:10:50.380 if it's true,
00:10:53.960 and I would need
00:10:54.900 a fact check on this,
00:10:56.900 that hospitals
00:10:58.640 can bill insurance companies
00:11:00.920 a god-awful amount
00:11:02.860 if that ventilator
00:11:04.180 goes down the throat
00:11:05.200 and far, far less
00:11:08.320 if it doesn't
00:11:09.200 and hospitals
00:11:11.240 are hurting for money
00:11:12.480 right now,
00:11:13.400 if all of those things
00:11:15.220 are true,
00:11:16.160 what does that create?
00:11:19.880 A situation
00:11:21.080 which you've heard
00:11:21.720 be described before.
00:11:23.940 There's a huge
00:11:25.220 upside potential
00:11:26.460 if somebody
00:11:29.040 wanted to act badly.
00:11:32.120 Huge upside potential.
00:11:34.940 Low opportunity
00:11:36.340 to be caught.
00:11:37.700 Why?
00:11:38.720 Because my understanding
00:11:40.180 is that they only
00:11:42.120 use the ventilator
00:11:43.100 in very prescripted situations.
00:11:45.140 I need a fact check
00:11:46.260 on that too.
00:11:47.460 So you should ignore
00:11:48.160 everything I'm saying
00:11:49.020 in this segment
00:11:49.560 because I'm probably
00:11:50.160 just spreading
00:11:50.960 conspiracy theories.
00:11:54.600 But,
00:11:55.440 my understanding
00:11:56.980 is that they use it
00:11:58.160 in a very specific case
00:12:00.340 so that they don't
00:12:01.220 get sued.
00:12:02.380 So that if,
00:12:03.420 I'm just guessing,
00:12:04.580 it's something like
00:12:05.280 your oxygen levels
00:12:07.000 plus something else.
00:12:08.220 So if you hit
00:12:09.640 the checklist,
00:12:11.320 the ventilator
00:12:11.900 goes down.
00:12:13.320 Now,
00:12:13.580 even if they were
00:12:14.500 suspected
00:12:15.080 that the ventilator
00:12:17.080 was killing people
00:12:18.060 in this specific
00:12:18.920 situation
00:12:19.600 of COVID,
00:12:21.240 and I don't know
00:12:21.760 that that's true,
00:12:23.080 but if they did
00:12:23.820 suspect that,
00:12:25.220 would they be
00:12:25.840 influenced by the fact
00:12:27.220 that there would be
00:12:27.940 a gigantic
00:12:28.700 financial incentive
00:12:30.960 as well as
00:12:32.460 probably lower risk
00:12:34.300 to follow
00:12:35.580 the checklist
00:12:36.400 to do what you do
00:12:38.220 when the oxygen
00:12:39.420 is this
00:12:40.020 and the other
00:12:41.220 signs are this,
00:12:43.160 even if you thought
00:12:43.980 it was killing them.
00:12:45.980 Because you don't know.
00:12:47.580 I mean,
00:12:47.860 you don't know,
00:12:48.560 but you know
00:12:48.920 one pays you a lot.
00:12:50.380 So they might die
00:12:51.600 either way.
00:12:52.940 You don't really know,
00:12:54.040 do you?
00:12:55.060 You don't know.
00:12:56.360 Because that's
00:12:56.900 the whole point.
00:12:57.540 I think if the doctors
00:12:58.740 knew it was killing people,
00:13:00.980 like if they actually knew,
00:13:03.040 I can't imagine
00:13:04.120 except in the rarest case.
00:13:07.340 I can't imagine
00:13:08.020 a doctor actually
00:13:08.880 killing somebody
00:13:09.520 intentionally
00:13:10.020 if they knew
00:13:11.260 it was going to kill them.
00:13:12.760 But what if they just
00:13:13.700 thought it was a toss-up?
00:13:16.700 What if they thought
00:13:17.640 to themselves,
00:13:18.460 I don't really know,
00:13:21.380 but I do know
00:13:22.300 that the checklist
00:13:23.060 says I should be doing it,
00:13:24.840 and that's the checklist
00:13:25.880 that keeps me
00:13:26.560 from getting sued.
00:13:28.300 Because at least
00:13:29.040 I'll say,
00:13:29.540 well,
00:13:30.060 I had a suspicion,
00:13:31.860 but I didn't have
00:13:32.680 any proof
00:13:33.340 that it was killing people.
00:13:34.120 Because to do that,
00:13:35.880 I would have to have
00:13:36.420 some kind of a study.
00:13:38.100 And I'm not in a study,
00:13:39.160 I'm in a hospital.
00:13:41.660 So it would be easy
00:13:43.040 for me to imagine
00:13:44.320 that the ventilators
00:13:49.880 are maybe a little overused.
00:13:52.300 I'm just saying
00:13:52.940 that's something
00:13:54.180 we ought to look at.
00:13:55.100 But I wouldn't want to,
00:13:59.080 I don't want to suggest
00:14:00.460 that that's true,
00:14:01.540 because this is so much
00:14:03.860 the kind of situation
00:14:05.000 where it turns out
00:14:07.220 the whole thing
00:14:07.680 is just BS.
00:14:09.080 Meaning that maybe hospitals
00:14:11.640 don't make more
00:14:12.900 if the ventilator is used.
00:14:14.360 Some basic part of the story
00:14:15.720 is just untrue.
00:14:17.640 So be on guard
00:14:18.480 that there might be
00:14:20.080 like a basic part
00:14:21.000 of the story
00:14:21.520 that just isn't true.
00:14:23.580 So that's what happens
00:14:25.600 when you put together
00:14:27.220 everything you've heard
00:14:27.960 on the internet.
00:14:29.540 All right.
00:14:32.160 So all I'm saying is
00:14:34.540 you should always listen
00:14:36.540 to the experts.
00:14:37.200 I think I made my case.
00:14:41.120 All right.
00:14:42.580 Here's some weird things
00:14:43.840 that are happening
00:14:44.380 because the simulation
00:14:45.840 is speaking to us.
00:14:48.500 Have you noticed now
00:14:50.000 that you're starting
00:14:53.880 to see the world
00:14:54.720 more clearly?
00:14:57.540 Does it feel like 2020
00:14:59.020 is a year
00:14:59.960 when there's some kind
00:15:01.200 of veil that's being lifted
00:15:02.620 on reality?
00:15:03.760 or at least
00:15:04.720 on what you understood
00:15:06.040 about how civilization
00:15:08.180 was put together?
00:15:09.620 There are a lot
00:15:10.140 of assumptions
00:15:10.900 are falling away, right?
00:15:13.480 And isn't it weird
00:15:15.640 that the simulation
00:15:17.660 would pick this year
00:15:18.900 to make us
00:15:20.900 see things clearly?
00:15:23.260 What year is this?
00:15:26.240 2020.
00:15:27.800 The simulation
00:15:28.680 is letting us
00:15:29.800 see clearly
00:15:30.420 in 2020.
00:15:33.200 2020 eyesight.
00:15:35.300 How cool is that?
00:15:38.200 And I tweeted
00:15:39.520 I found a picture
00:15:40.900 I had.
00:15:41.380 I tweeted this
00:15:41.940 a long time ago
00:15:42.640 but it got funnier
00:15:43.500 over time.
00:15:45.400 I had purchased
00:15:46.620 for gardening
00:15:47.480 there's a little thing
00:15:48.400 called a TDS meter.
00:15:50.920 Now it just says
00:15:51.680 actually TDS meter
00:15:53.200 on it
00:15:53.600 which was funny
00:15:54.260 which is why
00:15:54.740 I tweeted it.
00:15:55.720 But I didn't realize
00:15:56.500 the first time
00:15:57.100 I tweeted it
00:15:57.740 how much more
00:15:58.360 meaningful it would be
00:15:59.380 because right next to it
00:16:00.520 it said
00:16:00.800 made in China.
00:16:02.400 So it was a TDS meter
00:16:04.280 made in China
00:16:05.200 that I just happened
00:16:06.500 to run into today.
00:16:08.660 But what are the odds
00:16:09.640 the simulation delivers?
00:16:13.340 Here is the weirdest thing
00:16:15.080 about the tragic situation
00:16:16.940 of Ahmoud Arbery
00:16:18.340 who was slain
00:16:20.340 by the two guys
00:16:22.220 who recklessly
00:16:23.280 brought that gun
00:16:24.380 to confront him.
00:16:26.300 Here is the weird thing
00:16:28.400 about this story.
00:16:29.600 Are you ready for it?
00:16:30.620 I am going to give you
00:16:31.600 the take on the story
00:16:33.260 that nobody has given you.
00:16:34.780 Do you think
00:16:35.120 that is possible?
00:16:37.060 Is there any way
00:16:38.180 because you are probably
00:16:39.180 sick of the freaking story
00:16:40.380 by now right?
00:16:41.180 It is a tragedy.
00:16:43.600 What can you do?
00:16:44.860 You can talk about it
00:16:45.860 all day long.
00:16:47.580 It is not going to
00:16:48.360 help the family.
00:16:50.520 But here is my take on it.
00:16:52.040 Nobody disagrees.
00:16:56.660 It is the weirdest
00:16:57.520 kind of a conversation
00:17:01.060 because nobody
00:17:02.320 really disagrees.
00:17:04.200 If you actually
00:17:04.800 and people are acting
00:17:07.380 like they are arguing
00:17:08.520 without disagreeing.
00:17:11.180 Have you noticed that?
00:17:12.820 Because
00:17:13.300 have you seen
00:17:15.480 or heard one person
00:17:16.840 who said
00:17:17.400 yeah it was a good shoot.
00:17:19.220 you know
00:17:19.660 that is exactly
00:17:20.680 what they should have
00:17:21.340 been out there doing?
00:17:23.320 No.
00:17:24.700 Have you seen
00:17:25.480 one person
00:17:26.120 who thought
00:17:26.580 that the guys
00:17:27.300 who were
00:17:28.800 you know
00:17:29.480 chasing the
00:17:30.420 what was his name?
00:17:32.640 Amud.
00:17:33.520 The guys
00:17:33.980 does anybody think
00:17:34.860 that the guys
00:17:35.460 who chased them
00:17:36.400 were using
00:17:38.620 good judgment?
00:17:40.200 Nobody.
00:17:41.480 Literally nobody
00:17:42.440 thinks they were
00:17:43.100 using good judgment
00:17:44.080 all the way through.
00:17:46.760 Does anybody
00:17:47.620 think
00:17:48.100 that
00:17:49.220 walking around
00:17:50.800 in somebody's house
00:17:51.860 is going to
00:17:53.200 raise suspicion?
00:17:54.300 Does anybody
00:17:54.640 think
00:17:55.000 it's the worst
00:17:56.020 thing in the world?
00:17:57.180 If you went
00:17:57.660 right down
00:17:58.500 the line
00:17:59.860 nobody disagrees
00:18:01.920 on any part of it.
00:18:03.580 It was
00:18:03.820 people who made
00:18:05.140 what turned out
00:18:06.660 to be bad decisions
00:18:07.800 at the time.
00:18:09.500 And
00:18:09.540 what really
00:18:10.640 the big problem
00:18:11.800 was
00:18:12.200 that all the bad
00:18:13.000 decisions happened
00:18:13.840 in the same place.
00:18:14.820 if you take
00:18:16.320 three people
00:18:17.700 who make
00:18:18.120 bad decisions
00:18:18.940 once in a while
00:18:20.200 you know
00:18:20.600 we don't know
00:18:21.060 that they only
00:18:21.780 made bad decisions
00:18:22.800 right?
00:18:23.740 I wouldn't
00:18:24.100 allege that
00:18:25.120 but if you take
00:18:26.560 somebody who
00:18:27.260 sometimes makes
00:18:28.320 bad decisions
00:18:29.160 and you put them
00:18:30.320 in a field
00:18:30.900 all by themselves
00:18:31.820 probably no problem.
00:18:34.880 If you take
00:18:35.780 two people
00:18:36.900 who sometimes
00:18:37.960 make decisions
00:18:39.060 that are bad
00:18:39.800 and put them
00:18:41.720 in a field
00:18:42.380 next to each other
00:18:43.220 well
00:18:44.400 a little more
00:18:45.220 opportunity
00:18:46.760 for something
00:18:47.360 to go wrong
00:18:47.900 but if you
00:18:48.320 had that
00:18:48.740 third person
00:18:49.720 who has a
00:18:51.160 tendency
00:18:51.440 to make
00:18:51.920 bad decisions
00:18:52.740 you arm
00:18:54.620 two of them
00:18:55.300 you've got
00:18:58.460 a bad situation.
00:19:00.000 Now
00:19:00.200 is it
00:19:01.020 is it
00:19:02.700 racism?
00:19:03.940 Well that's
00:19:04.160 what everybody
00:19:04.560 wants to talk
00:19:05.240 about
00:19:05.540 but if you
00:19:06.560 have a situation
00:19:07.240 where you could
00:19:07.840 easily imagine
00:19:08.640 it happened
00:19:09.260 no matter
00:19:09.720 which races
00:19:10.680 any of them
00:19:11.240 were
00:19:11.520 where do you
00:19:14.480 get that
00:19:14.820 information?
00:19:16.460 Unless
00:19:17.020 you are
00:19:18.060 yourself
00:19:18.560 a racist.
00:19:19.920 So this is
00:19:20.480 where the
00:19:20.800 parody begins.
00:19:22.560 What would
00:19:22.920 make people
00:19:23.460 think
00:19:23.940 that the
00:19:24.720 two white
00:19:25.240 guys
00:19:25.720 were racist?
00:19:27.440 What would
00:19:27.720 be the
00:19:28.240 what would
00:19:30.000 be the
00:19:30.280 interpretation
00:19:30.760 that says
00:19:31.600 yeah this
00:19:32.240 is obviously
00:19:32.880 it's because
00:19:33.860 they're racist?
00:19:35.660 It's not
00:19:36.500 because they're
00:19:37.060 white is it?
00:19:37.740 because that's
00:19:39.940 the only
00:19:40.200 evidence I
00:19:40.840 see.
00:19:41.900 I don't
00:19:42.060 see now if
00:19:43.020 it turns out
00:19:43.500 they have
00:19:44.220 some body
00:19:44.740 of work
00:19:45.260 in which
00:19:45.580 they've
00:19:45.880 said things
00:19:46.620 that would
00:19:47.540 be appalling
00:19:48.120 I will
00:19:48.700 immediately
00:19:49.060 change my
00:19:49.740 opinion.
00:19:50.560 But as
00:19:50.760 far as I
00:19:51.100 know
00:19:51.440 as far as
00:19:53.180 I know
00:19:53.520 it's just
00:19:54.000 who they
00:19:54.400 are that
00:19:55.580 makes you
00:19:55.980 assume that
00:19:56.500 they're
00:19:56.700 racist.
00:19:57.240 Is that
00:19:57.520 not true?
00:19:58.780 And if
00:19:59.200 you're
00:19:59.400 assuming
00:19:59.700 somebody's
00:20:00.140 a racist
00:20:00.580 because of
00:20:01.320 who they
00:20:01.840 are
00:20:02.260 not what
00:20:04.000 they did
00:20:04.600 because again
00:20:05.820 it would be
00:20:06.880 easy to
00:20:07.260 imagine that
00:20:07.780 situation
00:20:08.260 where you
00:20:08.960 could just
00:20:09.280 mix up
00:20:09.800 all the
00:20:10.460 ethnicities
00:20:11.600 ages and
00:20:12.400 genders
00:20:12.800 of everybody
00:20:13.340 involved
00:20:13.940 still get
00:20:15.240 something like
00:20:16.120 that same
00:20:16.560 outcome.
00:20:17.460 It'd just be
00:20:17.920 easy.
00:20:18.580 You could
00:20:19.000 recast that
00:20:20.580 a million
00:20:20.920 times and
00:20:22.140 you put
00:20:22.420 three people
00:20:23.020 who made
00:20:23.420 bad decisions
00:20:24.200 in the past
00:20:24.860 I'm guessing
00:20:25.380 and maybe
00:20:27.140 they made
00:20:27.580 them that
00:20:27.940 night they
00:20:28.380 just happened
00:20:28.800 to happen
00:20:29.100 at the same
00:20:29.540 time.
00:20:29.900 It was a
00:20:31.560 terrible
00:20:31.840 tragedy but
00:20:33.400 to imagine
00:20:34.080 therefore that
00:20:34.760 you can
00:20:35.100 read minds
00:20:36.100 or that
00:20:36.760 they were
00:20:38.460 racist because
00:20:39.840 they're white
00:20:40.660 I would say
00:20:41.780 is not an
00:20:42.240 evidence.
00:20:43.360 Should it
00:20:43.740 become an
00:20:44.160 evidence later
00:20:44.920 I would
00:20:46.320 reconsider.
00:20:48.760 So that's
00:20:49.340 my take on
00:20:49.900 it.
00:20:50.280 People are
00:20:50.720 acting like
00:20:51.340 they're
00:20:51.520 disagreeing but
00:20:52.400 I don't
00:20:52.600 think they
00:20:52.940 are.
00:20:53.840 I don't
00:20:54.100 think there's
00:20:54.480 a thing I
00:20:54.960 just said
00:20:55.360 that anybody
00:20:55.740 would disagree
00:20:56.220 with.
00:20:56.940 If you
00:20:57.340 actually
00:20:57.820 could talk
00:20:59.680 to them
00:20:59.980 one-on-one
00:21:00.640 there's
00:21:01.720 not one
00:21:02.100 thing I
00:21:02.460 just said
00:21:02.960 that anybody
00:21:03.420 would disagree
00:21:03.960 with.
00:21:04.560 I don't
00:21:04.780 think.
00:21:05.740 Right?
00:21:07.180 Just a
00:21:07.880 tragedy.
00:21:11.360 Here's
00:21:11.900 three
00:21:13.100 interesting
00:21:13.680 well you
00:21:14.560 can decide
00:21:15.260 if it's
00:21:15.540 interesting
00:21:15.920 takes on
00:21:17.600 what's going
00:21:18.460 to happen
00:21:18.840 after the
00:21:19.760 coronavirus
00:21:20.280 situation
00:21:21.080 is passed.
00:21:22.700 Now
00:21:22.840 Balaji
00:21:23.320 Srinivasan
00:21:24.220 you might
00:21:26.140 think of
00:21:26.560 him as
00:21:26.940 more of
00:21:27.300 a
00:21:27.540 this is
00:21:28.220 the fun
00:21:28.560 part because
00:21:29.080 it's
00:21:29.260 from three
00:21:29.720 different
00:21:30.020 personalities
00:21:30.680 so you
00:21:31.600 might think
00:21:31.960 of him
00:21:32.260 as a
00:21:32.880 tech
00:21:33.940 very
00:21:36.920 he's hard
00:21:38.260 to describe
00:21:38.760 because he's
00:21:39.060 such a
00:21:39.700 renaissance
00:21:40.280 kind of
00:21:40.680 personality
00:21:41.140 but somebody
00:21:42.800 who's future
00:21:43.400 minded
00:21:43.760 technology
00:21:44.400 minded
00:21:44.940 science and
00:21:47.600 technology
00:21:48.200 kind of a
00:21:48.760 brain
00:21:49.020 and
00:21:50.180 so he
00:21:51.600 says one
00:21:52.100 possible good
00:21:52.900 future
00:21:53.320 after the
00:21:55.220 coronavirus
00:21:55.540 stuff is
00:21:56.620 that people
00:21:56.960 would move
00:21:57.360 out to
00:21:57.720 rural areas
00:21:58.560 who work
00:21:58.940 remotely
00:21:59.340 change
00:22:00.380 jobs more
00:22:01.560 easily in
00:22:02.300 a truly
00:22:02.740 global
00:22:03.500 labor market
00:22:04.460 fewer but
00:22:05.380 longer drives
00:22:06.420 with autonomous
00:22:07.160 cars
00:22:07.720 24-7
00:22:08.780 delivery drones
00:22:09.880 socialize
00:22:10.560 online and
00:22:11.300 in virtual
00:22:11.840 reality
00:22:12.360 physical
00:22:14.040 social distancing
00:22:15.100 with digital
00:22:16.060 social networking
00:22:17.560 question mark
00:22:18.340 so those are
00:22:19.640 just sort of
00:22:20.460 some you
00:22:21.200 know thoughts
00:22:21.880 about how
00:22:22.880 things might
00:22:23.460 be different
00:22:24.040 now those
00:22:24.660 come from
00:22:25.080 a remember
00:22:25.800 technology
00:22:27.140 futurist
00:22:28.040 kind of a
00:22:29.440 personality
00:22:29.900 and then
00:22:30.840 retweeting that
00:22:31.520 with his own
00:22:31.940 comment is
00:22:32.460 Nate Silver
00:22:33.020 now Nate
00:22:34.760 would be most
00:22:35.600 famous for
00:22:36.280 his statistical
00:22:37.940 analytical
00:22:38.980 abilities
00:22:39.800 so his take
00:22:41.940 on it goes
00:22:42.400 another possible
00:22:43.140 future
00:22:43.540 there's a
00:22:44.560 vaccine in
00:22:45.280 12 to 18
00:22:45.960 months
00:22:46.360 people mostly
00:22:47.580 go back to
00:22:48.180 how they were
00:22:48.600 living before
00:22:49.340 but with
00:22:49.840 greater awareness
00:22:50.740 of pandemic
00:22:51.500 risk
00:22:51.980 in other
00:22:52.660 words
00:22:52.840 everything
00:22:53.140 just reverts
00:22:53.860 to the
00:22:54.160 mean
00:22:54.400 yeah
00:22:55.700 it'll be
00:22:56.240 just like
00:22:56.740 before
00:22:57.140 because
00:22:58.320 things revert
00:22:59.820 to the
00:23:00.160 mean
00:23:00.420 so the
00:23:01.600 technologist
00:23:02.500 is seeing
00:23:03.740 all these
00:23:04.160 technology
00:23:04.740 opportunities
00:23:05.400 and the
00:23:06.380 market
00:23:06.740 meeting those
00:23:09.080 opportunities
00:23:09.620 and sort of
00:23:10.240 building the
00:23:10.760 future
00:23:11.080 the guy
00:23:13.800 who knows
00:23:14.180 the most
00:23:14.460 about statistics
00:23:15.180 says quite
00:23:15.920 reasonably
00:23:16.360 by the way
00:23:17.360 I'm not
00:23:17.940 giving you
00:23:18.800 an opinion
00:23:19.240 which is
00:23:19.760 the
00:23:19.980 you know
00:23:20.540 the more
00:23:20.840 likely one
00:23:21.480 is just
00:23:22.600 going from
00:23:23.100 two different
00:23:23.540 personalities
00:23:24.140 so from
00:23:25.660 Nate's
00:23:26.240 filter
00:23:26.600 we get
00:23:27.580 a vaccine
00:23:28.220 go back
00:23:29.720 to the way
00:23:30.160 we were
00:23:30.500 mostly
00:23:30.860 and then
00:23:32.820 the last
00:23:33.360 one
00:23:33.660 the last
00:23:35.120 assumption
00:23:37.120 or the
00:23:38.660 last prediction
00:23:39.440 is for me
00:23:39.960 so I thought
00:23:41.360 well
00:23:41.660 now we've
00:23:42.460 heard from
00:23:42.960 two different
00:23:43.780 personalities
00:23:44.380 let's see
00:23:45.420 what I can
00:23:45.820 add to this
00:23:46.360 so I said
00:23:47.320 yet another
00:23:47.960 possible future
00:23:48.780 the flaws
00:23:50.440 of our
00:23:50.820 ancient
00:23:51.240 assumptions
00:23:51.840 and rusted
00:23:52.520 systems
00:23:53.260 have now
00:23:54.560 been cruelly
00:23:55.340 revealed
00:23:55.880 making them
00:23:57.080 easy prey
00:23:57.900 for our
00:23:58.420 geniuses
00:23:59.080 and engineers
00:23:59.740 who will
00:24:00.960 lead civilization
00:24:01.900 to the
00:24:02.340 golden age
00:24:03.040 that's my
00:24:04.720 bet
00:24:05.020 so
00:24:06.820 nobody of course
00:24:09.120 knows what's
00:24:09.740 going to happen
00:24:10.200 I would say
00:24:10.840 that this is
00:24:11.460 bigger than
00:24:12.400 all of us
00:24:12.960 so anybody
00:24:14.400 who says
00:24:14.820 they can predict
00:24:15.500 what's going
00:24:15.900 to happen
00:24:16.160 after the
00:24:16.620 coronavirus
00:24:17.040 I think
00:24:17.540 that's
00:24:18.000 that's a
00:24:19.440 stretch
00:24:19.760 you know
00:24:20.320 I've had
00:24:21.220 some good
00:24:21.580 predictions
00:24:22.000 but they're
00:24:22.540 in narrow
00:24:23.320 little areas
00:24:24.160 you know
00:24:25.280 but predicting
00:24:26.120 how everything
00:24:26.920 goes
00:24:27.420 that's a lot
00:24:28.280 to ask
00:24:28.680 but there
00:24:30.120 are some
00:24:30.460 things that I
00:24:30.980 could say
00:24:31.420 with some
00:24:32.600 confidence
00:24:33.240 one is that
00:24:35.360 and see if you
00:24:37.160 agree with me
00:24:37.660 in the comments
00:24:38.220 here
00:24:38.420 one is that
00:24:39.700 this has caused
00:24:40.560 us to completely
00:24:41.580 rethink
00:24:42.260 everything
00:24:43.520 all of our
00:24:44.320 assumptions
00:24:44.720 all of our
00:24:45.420 systems
00:24:45.920 why do we
00:24:46.920 drive to work
00:24:47.700 you know
00:24:47.960 why are some
00:24:49.940 things physical
00:24:50.680 our entire
00:24:51.960 civilization
00:24:52.740 if you think
00:24:53.860 about it
00:24:54.340 well not
00:24:55.300 entire
00:24:55.640 but let's
00:24:56.520 say 90%
00:24:57.280 of our
00:24:57.620 civilization
00:24:58.120 is a
00:24:59.420 pre-internet
00:25:00.320 design
00:25:00.840 think about
00:25:02.480 that
00:25:02.880 I mean
00:25:03.500 that's
00:25:03.980 that's
00:25:04.500 sort of
00:25:04.740 the kill
00:25:05.100 shot
00:25:05.380 right there
00:25:05.780 I don't
00:25:05.980 have to
00:25:06.240 go on
00:25:06.600 90%
00:25:07.760 of civilization
00:25:08.580 is pre-internet
00:25:11.340 design
00:25:11.800 I'm just
00:25:12.900 making up
00:25:13.360 that number
00:25:13.780 but it's
00:25:14.160 something like
00:25:14.820 that
00:25:15.340 what happened
00:25:17.540 with the
00:25:18.380 coronavirus
00:25:18.760 situation
00:25:19.480 everybody just
00:25:20.680 took a step
00:25:21.280 back
00:25:21.700 and said
00:25:22.340 okay
00:25:23.300 should I
00:25:23.800 just
00:25:24.020 continue
00:25:24.840 running
00:25:25.360 as hard
00:25:26.060 as I can
00:25:26.500 in the same
00:25:26.960 direction
00:25:27.340 forever
00:25:27.780 you know
00:25:28.820 now that
00:25:29.120 I've got
00:25:29.400 a pullback
00:25:30.520 what do I
00:25:31.360 see
00:25:31.680 what has
00:25:32.360 been revealed
00:25:33.060 what do I
00:25:34.000 know now
00:25:34.680 because of
00:25:35.880 this lockdown
00:25:36.720 and everything
00:25:37.260 else
00:25:37.500 what do I
00:25:37.860 know now
00:25:38.280 that I
00:25:38.560 didn't know
00:25:38.920 before
00:25:39.280 the answer
00:25:40.240 is
00:25:40.560 a lot
00:25:41.980 a lot
00:25:43.760 we really
00:25:45.080 found out
00:25:45.860 a lot
00:25:46.320 about where
00:25:46.840 all the
00:25:47.100 weaknesses
00:25:47.600 are in
00:25:48.920 our systems
00:25:49.460 we know
00:25:50.300 where our
00:25:50.700 food systems
00:25:51.440 are bad
00:25:51.980 we know
00:25:52.360 what kind
00:25:52.680 of people
00:25:52.980 are going
00:25:53.240 to need
00:25:53.460 help
00:25:53.780 and what
00:25:54.540 kind
00:25:54.920 we'll probably
00:25:55.680 learn something
00:25:56.280 about printing
00:25:57.180 trillions of dollars
00:25:58.140 weirdly it looks
00:25:59.460 like we can just
00:26:00.120 print money if we
00:26:00.880 want to
00:26:01.300 I don't know
00:26:01.840 if there's going
00:26:02.220 to be a penalty
00:26:02.680 for this
00:26:03.140 but it looks
00:26:04.080 like there might
00:26:04.560 not be
00:26:05.040 in this weird
00:26:05.940 situation
00:26:06.460 where
00:26:06.820 inflation is
00:26:08.640 largely impossible
00:26:09.480 so almost
00:26:13.200 everything from
00:26:14.320 you know
00:26:14.940 you might not
00:26:15.560 have a post
00:26:16.180 office
00:26:16.560 I think all
00:26:17.240 the newspapers
00:26:17.880 are likely
00:26:18.560 to disappear
00:26:19.440 so the
00:26:20.240 nature of
00:26:21.320 news itself
00:26:22.240 is going to
00:26:23.040 change
00:26:23.440 because an
00:26:24.240 entire industry
00:26:25.020 is just
00:26:25.380 likely going
00:26:26.780 to disappear
00:26:27.360 along with
00:26:29.180 my job
00:26:30.020 and
00:26:31.060 that's just
00:26:33.320 a fraction
00:26:34.560 and I think
00:26:35.180 even stuff
00:26:35.700 like healthcare
00:26:36.500 there are
00:26:38.180 likely to be
00:26:38.900 gigantic
00:26:39.460 lasting
00:26:40.020 changes
00:26:40.580 for example
00:26:41.720 one of the
00:26:42.780 things that
00:26:43.080 happened during
00:26:43.600 the lockdown
00:26:44.560 was that
00:26:45.440 I was part
00:26:47.060 of this
00:26:47.340 process
00:26:47.980 I was
00:26:48.340 suggested
00:26:48.920 to the
00:26:49.460 task force
00:26:50.040 through
00:26:51.760 some excellent
00:26:53.340 help
00:26:53.740 thank you
00:26:54.700 Jonah
00:26:54.980 shoemate
00:26:56.240 I suggested
00:26:58.540 to the task
00:26:59.100 force the
00:26:59.580 idea of
00:27:00.180 letting doctors
00:27:01.000 who are doing
00:27:01.780 telehealth
00:27:02.880 practice across
00:27:04.980 state lines
00:27:05.660 because of the
00:27:06.240 emergency
00:27:06.600 you couldn't
00:27:07.440 do that
00:27:07.780 before
00:27:08.120 I think
00:27:09.600 that will
00:27:09.880 probably last
00:27:10.700 what kind
00:27:12.100 of a
00:27:12.460 permanent
00:27:13.600 change
00:27:14.120 would that
00:27:14.480 have
00:27:14.840 on the
00:27:15.760 cost
00:27:16.060 structure
00:27:16.580 and just
00:27:17.020 the very
00:27:17.460 assumptions
00:27:18.060 about how
00:27:19.360 you do
00:27:19.640 healthcare
00:27:20.120 now add
00:27:22.300 that to the
00:27:22.760 fact that we
00:27:23.360 learned how to
00:27:24.260 rapidly build
00:27:25.020 all of these
00:27:25.680 testing devices
00:27:27.780 so manufacturing
00:27:29.420 is going to
00:27:29.960 come back to
00:27:30.460 the United
00:27:30.820 States
00:27:31.280 so now add
00:27:32.400 the fact
00:27:32.880 that we're
00:27:33.640 going to start
00:27:34.040 manufacturing
00:27:34.820 tons of
00:27:35.720 medical devices
00:27:37.120 probably around
00:27:38.580 more locally
00:27:39.920 add to the
00:27:41.200 fact that you'll
00:27:41.880 be able to get
00:27:42.280 your doctor
00:27:42.800 on the phone
00:27:43.420 how hard will
00:27:44.560 it be to get
00:27:45.160 a test
00:27:45.780 from any
00:27:47.400 place locally
00:27:49.420 it could be
00:27:50.160 your CVS
00:27:50.940 your Walmart
00:27:51.560 because they
00:27:52.320 will be doing
00:27:52.800 this stuff
00:27:53.240 you go in
00:27:54.160 you get a
00:27:54.540 test
00:27:54.900 send it on
00:27:56.740 your app
00:27:57.160 to your
00:27:57.440 telehealth
00:27:57.920 doctor
00:27:58.440 I mean you
00:27:59.800 can see
00:28:00.240 universal
00:28:01.440 healthcare
00:28:02.080 happening
00:28:02.600 at a lower
00:28:03.180 cost
00:28:03.740 than
00:28:04.340 current
00:28:05.000 healthcare
00:28:05.400 very easily
00:28:06.520 and it
00:28:06.960 could be a
00:28:07.960 direct
00:28:08.280 outcome
00:28:08.800 of the
00:28:09.980 coronavirus
00:28:10.600 stuff
00:28:11.200 so that's
00:28:11.940 just one
00:28:12.200 example
00:28:12.560 but I
00:28:12.980 think
00:28:13.480 everything
00:28:13.760 from
00:28:14.060 education
00:28:14.660 to
00:28:15.140 the way
00:28:16.440 we
00:28:16.660 commute
00:28:17.160 live
00:28:17.740 recreate
00:28:18.400 everything
00:28:19.140 I think
00:28:20.040 it's just
00:28:20.420 going to
00:28:20.720 all be
00:28:21.060 rethought
00:28:21.600 from scratch
00:28:22.760 and the
00:28:23.940 result
00:28:24.340 will be
00:28:24.880 a little
00:28:26.240 thing we
00:28:26.640 call
00:28:26.960 the golden
00:28:28.140 age
00:28:28.580 you're in
00:28:29.500 the middle
00:28:29.780 of act
00:28:30.320 three
00:28:30.700 act
00:28:32.080 three
00:28:32.420 is when
00:28:33.040 you get
00:28:33.500 really
00:28:33.780 whacked
00:28:34.140 hard
00:28:34.380 and it
00:28:34.660 doesn't
00:28:34.880 look like
00:28:35.240 you could
00:28:35.540 come
00:28:35.760 back
00:28:36.140 that's
00:28:37.720 just
00:28:37.980 about
00:28:38.240 where
00:28:38.440 we're
00:28:38.640 at
00:28:38.960 but
00:28:40.440 we
00:28:41.840 humans
00:28:42.400 don't
00:28:43.340 really
00:28:43.600 lose
00:28:44.120 in the
00:28:44.980 end
00:28:45.240 if you
00:28:46.160 noticed
00:28:46.580 we do
00:28:47.580 have a
00:28:48.100 hundred
00:28:48.460 thousand
00:28:49.020 year
00:28:49.420 on a
00:28:49.780 broken
00:28:50.020 record
00:28:50.480 of
00:28:51.320 kicking
00:28:51.800 the ass
00:28:52.340 of every
00:28:52.820 micro
00:28:53.380 virus
00:28:54.240 mammal
00:28:55.320 bird
00:28:55.880 and fish
00:28:56.400 that gets
00:28:56.780 in our
00:28:57.020 way
00:28:57.340 so we
00:28:58.500 are going
00:28:58.860 to climb
00:28:59.260 on top
00:28:59.720 of this
00:29:00.180 we're
00:29:01.760 just about
00:29:02.560 at the
00:29:02.860 top
00:29:03.100 of the
00:29:03.420 hump
00:29:04.620 heading
00:29:05.440 over
00:29:05.760 feeling
00:29:07.740 good
00:29:08.000 about
00:29:08.220 it
00:29:08.720 so
00:29:10.220 a weird
00:29:11.180 thing
00:29:11.460 happened
00:29:11.800 on the
00:29:12.100 internet
00:29:12.360 today
00:29:12.760 I don't
00:29:13.200 know
00:29:13.320 if you've
00:29:13.600 ever
00:29:13.740 seen
00:29:13.980 this
00:29:14.180 happened
00:29:14.560 I swear
00:29:16.200 I'm
00:29:16.920 not
00:29:17.240 making
00:29:17.560 this
00:29:17.840 up
00:29:18.100 this
00:29:19.060 is a
00:29:19.380 real
00:29:19.620 thing
00:29:20.000 that
00:29:20.700 happened
00:29:20.960 to me
00:29:21.380 I promise
00:29:22.680 cross my
00:29:23.300 heart
00:29:23.600 not making
00:29:24.940 this
00:29:25.180 up
00:29:25.440 I
00:29:27.240 changed
00:29:27.640 my
00:29:27.880 mind
00:29:28.200 on
00:29:28.400 something
00:29:28.800 I
00:29:29.580 know
00:29:29.820 I
00:29:30.040 know
00:29:30.240 you
00:29:30.620 don't
00:29:30.780 believe
00:29:31.000 it
00:29:31.420 because
00:29:33.380 you've
00:29:33.580 never
00:29:33.740 seen
00:29:34.060 it
00:29:34.240 right
00:29:34.540 nobody's
00:29:35.200 ever
00:29:35.340 changed
00:29:35.720 their
00:29:35.900 mind
00:29:36.380 about
00:29:37.080 anything
00:29:37.440 in
00:29:37.640 politics
00:29:38.160 or
00:29:38.460 on
00:29:38.600 the
00:29:38.700 internet
00:29:39.080 but
00:29:40.120 damn
00:29:41.560 Ann
00:29:41.960 Coulter
00:29:42.440 wrote
00:29:43.960 an opinion
00:29:44.420 piece
00:29:44.860 about
00:29:45.240 the
00:29:45.700 virus
00:29:46.820 and whether
00:29:47.260 it came
00:29:47.580 from
00:29:47.760 the lab
00:29:48.280 or it
00:29:48.520 came
00:29:48.700 from
00:29:48.900 the
00:29:49.080 web
00:29:49.260 markets
00:29:49.700 didn't
00:29:51.440 you
00:29:51.640 kind
00:29:51.880 of
00:29:52.000 expect
00:29:52.440 that Ann
00:29:52.940 Coulter
00:29:53.380 would
00:29:53.780 write
00:29:54.080 that it
00:29:54.500 came
00:29:54.700 from
00:29:54.920 the
00:29:55.100 lab
00:29:55.520 wouldn't
00:29:58.120 you
00:29:58.440 wouldn't
00:29:59.600 you
00:29:59.740 have
00:29:59.900 expected
00:30:00.380 that
00:30:00.820 well
00:30:01.700 what I
00:30:02.940 wouldn't
00:30:03.200 have seen
00:30:03.620 coming
00:30:04.040 is that
00:30:04.940 you know
00:30:05.300 she's
00:30:05.660 anti
00:30:06.320 neocon
00:30:07.360 anti
00:30:07.920 war
00:30:08.520 for no
00:30:08.880 reason
00:30:09.200 and why
00:30:10.260 not
00:30:10.580 nothing
00:30:11.760 wrong
00:30:12.040 with that
00:30:12.400 and
00:30:13.680 she
00:30:14.300 makes
00:30:14.600 a compelling
00:30:15.220 lawyerly
00:30:16.460 argument
00:30:16.880 but not
00:30:17.640 like a
00:30:18.040 lawyer
00:30:18.240 she's
00:30:18.680 one of
00:30:19.100 the best
00:30:19.360 writers
00:30:19.700 in the
00:30:19.960 country
00:30:20.240 she
00:30:22.220 makes
00:30:22.480 a compelling
00:30:23.000 argument
00:30:23.460 that it
00:30:23.820 probably
00:30:24.040 came
00:30:24.300 from
00:30:24.480 the
00:30:24.620 web
00:30:24.820 market
00:30:25.200 and I
00:30:26.260 thought
00:30:26.460 to myself
00:30:27.000 damn
00:30:29.000 it
00:30:29.260 damn
00:30:31.320 it
00:30:31.460 Ann
00:30:31.680 Coulter
00:30:32.060 I'll
00:30:33.740 try to
00:30:34.420 give you
00:30:34.840 her
00:30:35.080 argument
00:30:35.520 quickly
00:30:35.940 and there
00:30:36.220 was
00:30:36.320 a fact
00:30:38.100 that I
00:30:38.540 kind
00:30:38.840 of
00:30:38.980 knew
00:30:39.340 but
00:30:39.660 somehow
00:30:40.060 I
00:30:40.340 hadn't
00:30:40.580 put it
00:30:40.920 in place
00:30:41.420 the way
00:30:41.800 she
00:30:42.000 had
00:30:42.340 and I
00:30:43.100 thought
00:30:43.360 oh
00:30:44.180 it all
00:30:45.240 makes
00:30:45.560 sense
00:30:45.880 now
00:30:46.400 and here's
00:30:47.380 the way
00:30:47.600 she
00:30:47.840 puts it
00:30:48.660 in context
00:30:49.220 first
00:30:51.180 of all
00:30:51.480 who
00:30:51.860 would
00:30:52.060 like
00:30:52.380 the
00:30:53.580 United
00:30:53.860 States
00:30:54.240 to
00:30:54.500 get
00:30:54.740 into
00:30:54.940 some
00:30:55.140 kind
00:30:55.340 of
00:30:55.440 military
00:30:56.460 confrontation
00:30:57.100 with
00:30:57.580 anybody
00:30:58.000 it would
00:30:58.300 be
00:30:58.400 the
00:30:58.560 neocons
00:30:59.120 so if
00:30:59.880 you
00:31:00.000 believe
00:31:00.300 there are
00:31:00.580 these
00:31:00.740 people
00:31:01.000 called
00:31:01.260 neocons
00:31:02.000 these
00:31:02.680 ultra
00:31:03.140 right
00:31:04.720 wing
00:31:06.060 people
00:31:06.740 in the
00:31:07.000 government
00:31:07.360 and the
00:31:08.560 wheels
00:31:09.180 of industry
00:31:09.820 in the
00:31:10.160 military
00:31:10.540 industrial
00:31:10.960 complex
00:31:11.560 and that
00:31:12.640 these
00:31:12.880 neocons
00:31:13.460 are always
00:31:14.100 itching
00:31:14.600 for a war
00:31:15.340 or at
00:31:16.140 the very
00:31:16.440 least
00:31:16.880 a build
00:31:17.460 up of
00:31:17.820 military
00:31:18.300 equipment
00:31:18.900 because
00:31:19.480 presumably
00:31:20.020 they'll
00:31:20.420 make
00:31:20.660 money
00:31:20.920 on
00:31:21.160 the
00:31:21.980 military
00:31:22.420 industrial
00:31:23.560 complex
00:31:24.320 so
00:31:25.460 it would
00:31:26.860 behoove
00:31:27.260 them
00:31:27.580 to
00:31:28.820 make us
00:31:29.700 think
00:31:29.900 that we
00:31:30.160 need to
00:31:30.400 build up
00:31:30.760 our
00:31:30.900 military
00:31:31.220 because
00:31:31.720 China
00:31:32.060 is a
00:31:32.320 threat
00:31:32.560 so
00:31:33.600 if
00:31:34.020 you
00:31:34.100 were
00:31:34.200 to
00:31:34.300 ask
00:31:34.500 yourself
00:31:34.860 is there
00:31:35.680 anybody
00:31:36.120 who
00:31:36.360 would
00:31:36.500 be
00:31:36.660 capable
00:31:37.260 of
00:31:37.760 this
00:31:37.960 is my
00:31:38.300 spin
00:31:38.580 not
00:31:38.920 not
00:31:39.520 ants
00:31:39.880 is there
00:31:40.940 anybody
00:31:41.200 who would
00:31:41.440 be
00:31:41.600 capable
00:31:42.080 of
00:31:42.720 creating
00:31:43.880 a rumor
00:31:44.440 that it
00:31:45.000 came from
00:31:45.420 the lab
00:31:46.320 which would
00:31:46.880 be the
00:31:47.120 worst
00:31:47.400 case
00:31:47.880 scenario
00:31:48.340 who would
00:31:49.720 be capable
00:31:50.360 and have
00:31:51.160 the motive
00:31:51.720 and if
00:31:53.540 there are
00:31:53.880 such things
00:31:54.480 as neocons
00:31:55.360 well okay
00:31:56.220 there you
00:31:56.740 have the
00:31:57.020 motive
00:31:57.380 and you
00:31:58.240 have the
00:31:58.520 opportunity
00:31:59.040 because the
00:31:59.520 opportunity
00:31:59.900 part is
00:32:00.380 easy right
00:32:00.920 it's pretty
00:32:01.940 easy to
00:32:02.300 start a
00:32:02.620 rumor
00:32:02.860 who can
00:32:04.600 do that
00:32:05.060 and so
00:32:05.940 there's a
00:32:06.300 huge
00:32:06.540 potential
00:32:07.360 upside
00:32:07.860 right
00:32:08.980 odds of
00:32:10.500 getting caught
00:32:11.220 and going
00:32:11.640 to jail
00:32:12.120 for starting
00:32:12.840 a rumor
00:32:13.360 zero
00:32:15.340 potential
00:32:17.100 upside
00:32:17.700 if it
00:32:18.040 causes a
00:32:18.560 military
00:32:19.000 buildup
00:32:19.560 because it's
00:32:20.080 part of
00:32:20.460 what makes
00:32:20.860 us get
00:32:21.820 antagonistic
00:32:22.580 toward China
00:32:23.240 profit
00:32:25.180 incalculable
00:32:27.480 gigantic
00:32:28.680 so in a
00:32:31.340 situation like
00:32:32.060 that
00:32:32.520 could you
00:32:34.200 expect
00:32:34.760 people to
00:32:36.020 start a
00:32:36.480 rumor that
00:32:37.120 would benefit
00:32:37.620 them in
00:32:39.120 incalculable
00:32:40.020 ways and
00:32:40.780 they couldn't
00:32:41.200 get caught
00:32:41.760 not in any
00:32:42.580 serious way
00:32:43.180 yeah
00:32:44.420 yeah
00:32:45.580 we live
00:32:46.120 in a
00:32:46.340 world
00:32:46.680 where that's
00:32:47.580 a ripe
00:32:48.180 situation
00:32:48.860 for that
00:32:49.360 doesn't
00:32:50.080 mean it
00:32:50.300 happened
00:32:50.620 but it's
00:32:52.080 the ripest
00:32:52.720 of situations
00:32:53.720 and then
00:32:55.840 Anne makes
00:32:56.600 this case
00:32:57.120 you know
00:32:57.380 I guess
00:32:57.700 a lot was
00:32:58.720 made of the
00:32:59.140 fact that
00:32:59.700 it was a
00:33:00.620 bat
00:33:00.980 virus
00:33:02.220 but there
00:33:02.880 were no
00:33:03.220 bats in
00:33:03.760 the wet
00:33:04.040 market
00:33:04.360 you all
00:33:04.740 heard that
00:33:05.100 right
00:33:05.320 so it
00:33:06.480 couldn't
00:33:06.660 have come
00:33:06.900 from bats
00:33:07.520 because
00:33:08.940 they didn't
00:33:09.940 have any
00:33:10.340 bats in
00:33:10.800 the wet
00:33:11.060 markets
00:33:11.480 anywhere near
00:33:12.120 there
00:33:12.400 but as
00:33:14.940 Anne explains
00:33:15.880 and I
00:33:16.740 kind of
00:33:17.140 knew this
00:33:17.840 but somehow
00:33:19.060 I missed the
00:33:19.800 significance
00:33:20.240 because I'm
00:33:20.960 an idiot
00:33:21.360 it we know
00:33:24.360 that the virus
00:33:25.080 didn't go from
00:33:25.860 bat to human
00:33:26.640 it went through
00:33:27.240 some middle
00:33:28.820 species
00:33:29.440 which apparently
00:33:30.760 this paneguin
00:33:31.760 or whatever the
00:33:32.260 hell it is
00:33:32.680 some kind of
00:33:33.560 animal or bird
00:33:34.580 yeah pangolin
00:33:35.320 I don't even know
00:33:36.320 what that is
00:33:36.960 but some kind
00:33:37.660 of a creature
00:33:38.140 which apparently
00:33:40.120 they are at
00:33:40.960 the markets
00:33:41.520 so the argument
00:33:43.160 that it couldn't
00:33:44.180 have been at the
00:33:44.680 wet market
00:33:45.220 doesn't make sense
00:33:47.140 because of course
00:33:48.240 it could
00:33:48.580 so once you
00:33:49.840 throw in the fact
00:33:50.580 that there's
00:33:50.980 somebody who has
00:33:51.520 a motive to tell
00:33:52.360 you the wrong story
00:33:53.220 and it's easy to do
00:33:54.160 and you throw in the
00:33:55.120 fact that the most
00:33:55.840 ordinary way this
00:33:56.780 happens is through
00:33:58.140 the wet markets
00:33:59.340 and then you throw
00:34:01.480 in the fact
00:34:01.960 that any
00:34:02.740 any virus lab
00:34:04.540 in the world
00:34:05.080 would probably
00:34:06.140 have safety
00:34:07.780 violations
00:34:08.300 which is what
00:34:09.860 Anne also said
00:34:11.180 and I thought
00:34:11.840 to myself
00:34:12.240 oh that's
00:34:13.540 that's a good
00:34:14.340 point
00:34:14.700 I'll bet you
00:34:15.560 could randomly
00:34:16.260 pick
00:34:16.740 you know
00:34:17.720 any top level
00:34:19.020 secret facility
00:34:20.340 and say
00:34:21.400 alright we're
00:34:21.980 going to do
00:34:22.220 an audit
00:34:22.640 what are they
00:34:23.860 going to find
00:34:24.420 well they don't
00:34:25.700 find nothing
00:34:26.380 because the people
00:34:27.220 who do the audit
00:34:27.960 are paid to
00:34:28.540 find stuff
00:34:29.200 if you pay
00:34:30.640 somebody to do
00:34:31.400 an audit
00:34:31.880 and look for
00:34:33.000 safety violations
00:34:34.000 they'll find them
00:34:36.180 100% of the time
00:34:37.320 otherwise
00:34:38.080 you know
00:34:38.680 why are you
00:34:39.080 going to buy
00:34:39.400 them the next
00:34:39.960 time
00:34:40.220 so
00:34:41.080 so here's
00:34:43.220 the thing
00:34:43.560 before I read
00:34:44.760 Anne's argument
00:34:45.440 I would have
00:34:45.960 said 80%
00:34:46.880 chance
00:34:47.400 it came from
00:34:48.700 the lab
00:34:49.460 just like our
00:34:50.660 intelligence agencies
00:34:51.720 are saying
00:34:52.320 our intelligence
00:34:53.940 agencies
00:34:54.460 right
00:34:55.020 just like what
00:34:56.520 they're saying
00:34:57.040 and that
00:34:59.340 you know
00:35:00.020 China's lying
00:35:00.820 about that
00:35:01.620 and everything
00:35:02.080 else
00:35:02.480 and I want to
00:35:04.460 say 80%
00:35:05.180 chance it was
00:35:05.820 the lab
00:35:06.420 not intentional
00:35:07.280 because that
00:35:07.900 just never made
00:35:08.640 sense to me
00:35:09.240 but maybe an
00:35:10.000 accident
00:35:10.420 I would now
00:35:12.520 revise that
00:35:13.540 to
00:35:14.620 50-50
00:35:17.700 I want to go
00:35:20.240 60-40
00:35:21.180 web market
00:35:22.540 I'm going to go
00:35:24.500 55%
00:35:25.620 likely
00:35:26.940 that the
00:35:28.320 Ann Coulter
00:35:28.940 argument is
00:35:29.600 right
00:35:29.960 55%
00:35:33.220 that it was
00:35:34.400 the web market
00:35:35.100 darn it
00:35:37.180 somebody says
00:35:39.140 that
00:35:39.380 pangolins
00:35:40.380 are fake
00:35:41.000 news
00:35:41.440 I'm willing
00:35:43.100 to be
00:35:43.660 persuaded
00:35:44.340 you saw
00:35:45.020 me be
00:35:45.380 persuaded
00:35:45.820 once
00:35:46.220 anyway
00:35:46.820 the point
00:35:47.360 is
00:35:47.660 this is
00:35:48.620 the kind
00:35:49.000 of news
00:35:49.500 that you
00:35:51.020 just can't
00:35:51.560 be sure
00:35:51.960 of anything
00:35:52.620 anymore
00:35:53.060 right
00:35:53.340 you just
00:35:55.060 can't be
00:35:55.560 sure of
00:35:56.000 anything
00:35:56.280 I don't
00:35:57.000 think you
00:35:57.340 can rule
00:35:57.720 out the
00:35:58.060 fact that
00:35:58.480 it was
00:35:58.900 engineered
00:35:59.740 I do
00:36:01.540 not think
00:36:02.000 you can
00:36:02.380 rule out
00:36:02.820 engineered
00:36:03.260 no
00:36:03.840 not
00:36:04.240 not even
00:36:04.840 a little
00:36:05.080 bit
00:36:05.300 but you
00:36:05.840 also can't
00:36:06.580 rule out
00:36:06.940 the web
00:36:07.240 market
00:36:07.600 and I
00:36:08.180 thought it
00:36:08.480 was a
00:36:08.780 little bit
00:36:09.140 easier to
00:36:09.760 rule out
00:36:10.140 the web
00:36:10.420 market
00:36:10.760 but if
00:36:11.560 you can't
00:36:12.040 rule it
00:36:12.380 out
00:36:12.740 and it
00:36:13.980 is the
00:36:14.320 most common
00:36:14.900 way that
00:36:15.440 other viruses
00:36:16.100 have started
00:36:16.800 you kind of
00:36:19.160 have to play
00:36:19.600 the odds
00:36:20.060 don't you
00:36:20.480 if it
00:36:22.200 usually starts
00:36:23.300 in this
00:36:23.700 way
00:36:24.020 and this
00:36:25.060 way is the
00:36:25.620 same way
00:36:26.000 it's always
00:36:26.380 been
00:36:26.700 and it
00:36:27.560 usually starts
00:36:28.500 that way
00:36:28.940 what makes
00:36:30.580 this the
00:36:31.080 one time
00:36:31.600 it started
00:36:32.000 the other
00:36:32.420 way
00:36:32.760 good
00:36:33.920 good
00:36:35.320 or as
00:36:37.860 or as
00:36:39.440 Jack
00:36:39.940 Pasabig
00:36:40.460 said on
00:36:41.020 Twitter
00:36:41.320 he goes
00:36:42.220 where do
00:36:42.780 you think
00:36:43.040 the guys
00:36:43.420 from the
00:36:43.760 lab
00:36:44.020 go to
00:36:44.320 eat
00:36:44.560 where do
00:36:47.480 you think
00:36:47.700 they go
00:36:47.960 to lunch
00:36:48.340 and I
00:36:51.140 don't know
00:36:51.380 how would
00:36:51.740 you score
00:36:52.160 that
00:36:52.520 you know
00:36:53.400 what would
00:36:53.920 the score
00:36:54.420 be
00:36:54.660 if the
00:36:55.760 guy from
00:36:56.120 the lab
00:36:56.560 went over
00:36:56.900 and got
00:36:57.180 it on
00:36:57.440 his shoe
00:36:57.860 and then
00:36:59.000 he brought
00:36:59.760 the deadly
00:37:00.200 virus into
00:37:00.900 the lab
00:37:01.480 would you
00:37:02.640 score that
00:37:03.120 as a
00:37:03.400 lab
00:37:03.640 accident
00:37:04.040 if it
00:37:04.420 then got
00:37:04.760 out of
00:37:05.000 the lab
00:37:05.440 I don't
00:37:07.000 know
00:37:07.500 all right
00:37:09.900 that's
00:37:11.960 probably all
00:37:12.540 I wanted
00:37:12.860 to say
00:37:13.440 on that
00:37:13.860 anybody
00:37:14.460 want to
00:37:14.800 ask me
00:37:15.080 a question
00:37:15.500 I'm going
00:37:17.740 to take
00:37:17.980 some questions
00:37:18.600 I'm going
00:37:19.060 to catch
00:37:19.340 somebody
00:37:19.660 off guard
00:37:20.320 get ready
00:37:23.520 get on
00:37:23.920 your game
00:37:24.560 the question
00:37:26.060 answering
00:37:26.540 will begin
00:37:27.820 will begin
00:37:28.760 all right
00:37:30.320 we'll see
00:37:30.700 if Jeff
00:37:31.140 is awake
00:37:32.060 Jeff
00:37:35.060 are you
00:37:36.380 awake
00:37:36.720 hey
00:37:37.560 do you
00:37:37.740 have a
00:37:37.920 question
00:37:38.160 for me
00:37:38.660 I knew
00:37:41.940 beyond a
00:37:42.800 shadow of a
00:37:43.240 doubt
00:37:43.500 that tonight
00:37:44.120 you'd ask
00:37:44.660 me to come
00:37:45.120 online
00:37:45.720 tonight
00:37:46.220 it's weird
00:37:46.680 I'm a
00:37:48.580 physician
00:37:48.980 I'm a
00:37:49.460 hospitalist
00:37:50.080 I work
00:37:50.400 in critical
00:37:50.820 care
00:37:51.080 medicine
00:37:51.500 I've had
00:37:52.160 the unfortunate
00:37:52.720 pleasure of
00:37:53.580 treating this
00:37:54.360 virus
00:37:54.860 and yeah
00:37:57.720 it's kind
00:37:58.000 of a scary
00:37:58.380 virus
00:37:58.740 can you
00:38:00.600 tell us
00:38:01.240 what part
00:38:01.620 of the
00:38:01.800 country
00:38:02.060 or you
00:38:02.320 want to
00:38:02.540 keep
00:38:02.700 that
00:38:03.000 I'll tell
00:38:04.120 you
00:38:04.200 I'm in
00:38:04.480 Oklahoma
00:38:05.000 southwest
00:38:06.080 Oklahoma
00:38:06.600 I'm in
00:38:07.400 a fairly
00:38:08.420 rural area
00:38:09.520 medium-sized
00:38:10.260 hospital
00:38:10.800 most of my
00:38:12.220 patients have
00:38:12.840 come out of
00:38:13.400 a federal
00:38:13.860 prison
00:38:14.260 actually
00:38:14.800 yeah
00:38:16.740 so let
00:38:17.920 me ask
00:38:18.340 you this
00:38:18.800 yeah
00:38:19.240 of the
00:38:21.840 so this
00:38:22.600 is anecdotal
00:38:23.160 how many
00:38:23.540 patients have
00:38:24.460 you seen
00:38:24.860 roughly
00:38:25.280 a lot
00:38:26.080 a few
00:38:26.540 I would
00:38:28.380 say
00:38:28.660 in the
00:38:29.120 hospital
00:38:29.680 in
00:38:30.200 as a
00:38:30.700 primary
00:38:31.160 as a
00:38:32.000 hospitalist
00:38:32.520 probably a
00:38:33.000 dozen
00:38:33.320 and then
00:38:34.520 I've
00:38:35.060 consulted
00:38:35.460 with a lot
00:38:35.940 of people
00:38:36.280 all across
00:38:36.780 the United
00:38:37.080 States
00:38:37.440 that couldn't
00:38:37.940 get
00:38:38.120 hydroxychloroquine
00:38:39.140 friends of
00:38:39.660 friends that
00:38:40.060 would call me
00:38:40.580 and I did
00:38:40.940 some telemedicine
00:38:41.800 with them
00:38:42.200 maybe another
00:38:42.720 dozen
00:38:43.140 so two dozen
00:38:43.860 maybe
00:38:44.400 so you
00:38:46.160 know I
00:38:46.440 know that
00:38:46.920 it's
00:38:47.520 impossible
00:38:47.880 to do
00:38:48.240 a
00:38:48.360 controlled
00:38:48.760 study
00:38:49.140 or
00:38:49.260 anything
00:38:49.480 but is
00:38:49.900 there any
00:38:50.180 observation
00:38:50.980 just anecdotally
00:38:52.260 that you
00:38:52.580 would say
00:38:52.960 people need
00:38:54.600 to know
00:38:55.080 X
00:38:55.560 that something
00:38:56.300 works or
00:38:56.860 something
00:38:57.160 doesn't
00:38:57.560 work
00:38:57.820 is there
00:38:58.080 anything
00:38:58.620 that is
00:39:00.740 in your
00:39:01.060 mind
00:39:01.460 as my
00:39:02.040 god I
00:39:02.420 think we're
00:39:02.800 looking at
00:39:03.300 this wrong
00:39:03.800 anything
00:39:04.380 stick out
00:39:04.960 no I
00:39:06.100 think in
00:39:06.640 general we're
00:39:07.240 looking at
00:39:07.700 this correctly
00:39:08.520 I think the
00:39:09.240 social distancing
00:39:10.000 the flattened
00:39:10.620 curve has
00:39:11.060 helped
00:39:11.420 at least it
00:39:12.540 has in my
00:39:13.000 part of
00:39:13.300 the country
00:39:13.780 so far
00:39:14.880 but what
00:39:16.760 about the
00:39:17.100 meds
00:39:17.540 yeah so
00:39:18.860 hydroxychloroquine
00:39:19.800 anecdotally
00:39:20.600 I've talked to
00:39:21.620 many doctors
00:39:22.180 that have
00:39:22.500 used it
00:39:22.960 we're kind
00:39:23.480 of in
00:39:23.760 the red
00:39:24.320 belt
00:39:24.580 here and
00:39:25.080 so you
00:39:26.180 know this
00:39:26.380 drug's been
00:39:26.820 politicized
00:39:27.560 obviously
00:39:28.040 but a lot
00:39:29.400 of us are
00:39:29.740 using it
00:39:30.260 and we seem
00:39:30.920 to be having
00:39:31.340 good effects
00:39:31.940 if it's
00:39:32.580 used early
00:39:33.240 if you wait
00:39:33.840 until you're
00:39:34.320 on the
00:39:34.520 ventilator
00:39:34.960 forget it
00:39:35.860 you know
00:39:36.360 you're in
00:39:37.380 a different
00:39:37.740 part or
00:39:39.100 phase of
00:39:39.500 the disease
00:39:39.960 where not
00:39:41.120 much is
00:39:41.520 going to
00:39:41.720 help I
00:39:42.040 think
00:39:42.380 so have
00:39:43.460 you seen
00:39:43.960 anybody
00:39:44.380 yourself
00:39:45.160 who got
00:39:45.700 on hydroxychloroquine
00:39:46.980 early
00:39:47.400 who did
00:39:48.580 not have
00:39:49.160 let's say
00:39:49.780 well whether
00:39:50.780 or not
00:39:51.040 they had
00:39:51.400 other
00:39:51.720 comorbidities
00:39:52.660 or not
00:39:52.960 who went
00:39:53.600 on to
00:39:54.180 not make
00:39:54.780 it
00:39:55.080 no I
00:39:58.820 have not
00:39:59.280 I've only
00:40:01.280 had one
00:40:01.740 patient
00:40:02.120 die of
00:40:02.600 this
00:40:02.900 and he
00:40:04.240 was in
00:40:04.560 very poor
00:40:04.980 health
00:40:05.280 and quite
00:40:06.140 frankly we
00:40:06.680 didn't put
00:40:07.200 him on
00:40:07.540 the drug
00:40:08.820 because at
00:40:09.320 first we
00:40:09.960 didn't think
00:40:10.640 he had it
00:40:11.240 he presented
00:40:11.900 differently
00:40:12.520 he didn't
00:40:13.060 appear to be
00:40:13.600 a coronavirus
00:40:14.100 patient
00:40:14.600 so
00:40:14.940 no
00:40:16.900 I wanted
00:40:18.260 to address
00:40:18.760 one thing
00:40:19.180 that you
00:40:19.420 said earlier
00:40:19.980 or you're
00:40:20.500 talking about
00:40:21.160 when it
00:40:22.060 comes to
00:40:22.720 putting
00:40:23.660 patients on
00:40:24.440 ventilators
00:40:25.080 and reimbursement
00:40:26.240 so
00:40:27.200 there's two
00:40:28.300 areas of
00:40:28.860 reimbursement
00:40:29.500 that occur
00:40:30.540 in a
00:40:31.240 hospitalized
00:40:31.640 patient
00:40:32.200 you have
00:40:32.540 what they
00:40:32.800 call
00:40:32.980 E&M
00:40:33.460 coding
00:40:33.860 which is
00:40:34.960 the
00:40:35.100 physician's
00:40:35.740 fee
00:40:35.920 and that
00:40:36.360 is a
00:40:36.640 very
00:40:36.960 small
00:40:37.620 variance
00:40:38.060 and it
00:40:38.440 absolutely
00:40:38.880 has nothing
00:40:39.440 to do
00:40:39.840 with whether
00:40:40.200 or not
00:40:40.480 we
00:40:40.700 intubate
00:40:41.300 a patient
00:40:41.720 what
00:40:42.080 you're
00:40:42.580 addressing
00:40:43.000 is the
00:40:43.500 hospital
00:40:43.920 fee
00:40:44.300 which is
00:40:45.680 based on
00:40:46.380 what they
00:40:46.660 call a
00:40:46.960 DRG
00:40:47.580 or ICD-9
00:40:48.440 coding
00:40:48.740 or 10
00:40:49.080 coding
00:40:49.360 now
00:40:49.640 and
00:40:52.100 yes
00:40:52.860 that fee
00:40:53.360 goes
00:40:53.700 up
00:40:54.300 dramatically
00:40:55.000 but the
00:40:55.540 physician
00:40:56.000 does not
00:40:56.520 participate
00:40:57.020 in that
00:40:57.560 reimbursement
00:40:58.480 at least
00:40:59.780 not in most
00:41:00.440 areas
00:41:01.160 there may
00:41:02.000 be some
00:41:02.420 models
00:41:02.760 where doctors
00:41:03.460 get a
00:41:04.300 kickback
00:41:04.740 but in
00:41:05.400 most places
00:41:05.900 that's
00:41:06.220 illegal
00:41:06.620 so
00:41:07.900 and when
00:41:08.760 you put
00:41:09.100 a patient
00:41:09.520 on a
00:41:10.080 ventilator
00:41:10.520 it probably
00:41:11.380 costs the
00:41:12.220 hospital
00:41:12.700 more money
00:41:13.680 than they're
00:41:14.060 getting
00:41:14.300 reimbursed
00:41:14.860 had they
00:41:15.400 avoided
00:41:15.860 it to
00:41:16.220 begin
00:41:16.500 with
00:41:16.840 so
00:41:17.380 yes
00:41:18.100 there is
00:41:18.600 what I
00:41:19.360 think
00:41:19.520 it's
00:41:19.640 about
00:41:19.820 three
00:41:20.080 times
00:41:20.560 the
00:41:20.800 dollar
00:41:21.060 amount
00:41:21.360 that
00:41:21.520 the
00:41:21.780 hospital
00:41:22.120 gets
00:41:22.560 but
00:41:23.180 you're
00:41:23.360 probably
00:41:23.620 spending
00:41:24.000 more than
00:41:24.380 three times
00:41:24.960 that
00:41:25.140 let me
00:41:26.560 ask you
00:41:26.880 this
00:41:27.140 do you
00:41:28.340 have a
00:41:28.880 sort of
00:41:29.240 a
00:41:29.400 checklist
00:41:29.980 that says
00:41:30.740 when you
00:41:31.180 can and
00:41:31.700 cannot use
00:41:32.240 a ventilator
00:41:32.980 to keep
00:41:33.640 you out of
00:41:34.060 trouble
00:41:34.340 in other
00:41:34.740 words
00:41:35.040 if you
00:41:36.320 do it
00:41:36.660 according
00:41:37.460 to these
00:41:38.020 criteria
00:41:38.560 you're
00:41:38.960 always
00:41:39.180 going to
00:41:39.380 be okay
00:41:39.900 even if
00:41:40.320 things
00:41:40.560 go wrong
00:41:41.140 anything
00:41:41.760 like that
00:41:42.560 yeah
00:41:43.200 I would
00:41:43.620 say
00:41:43.880 it's not
00:41:44.500 an exact
00:41:45.540 checklist
00:41:46.100 but yes
00:41:46.620 the idea
00:41:47.360 the way
00:41:47.880 you're thinking
00:41:48.220 about it
00:41:48.560 is correct
00:41:49.160 so
00:41:49.980 well
00:41:50.280 hold on
00:41:50.600 let me
00:41:51.540 finish the
00:41:51.940 thought
00:41:52.140 then
00:41:52.320 so if
00:41:53.120 that's
00:41:53.440 correct
00:41:54.200 then a
00:41:55.140 doctor
00:41:55.540 who
00:41:55.820 suspected
00:41:56.520 that maybe
00:41:57.560 the
00:41:57.800 ventilator
00:41:58.460 might not
00:41:59.560 be helping
00:42:00.120 as much
00:42:00.540 as it's
00:42:00.880 hurting
00:42:01.180 would still
00:42:02.460 be
00:42:02.840 an easier
00:42:03.740 path
00:42:04.180 for them
00:42:04.520 to follow
00:42:04.920 the
00:42:05.140 checklist
00:42:05.480 if it's
00:42:06.180 a close
00:42:06.560 call
00:42:06.880 wouldn't
00:42:07.120 you say
00:42:07.420 yeah
00:42:08.280 I think
00:42:08.880 so
00:42:09.220 but this
00:42:10.200 is evolving
00:42:10.820 so rapidly
00:42:11.580 there's a guy
00:42:12.100 by the name
00:42:12.500 of Scott
00:42:12.920 Weingart
00:42:13.480 at Stony Brook
00:42:14.600 Hospital
00:42:15.020 that's really
00:42:16.020 on the
00:42:16.900 cutting edge
00:42:17.340 of this
00:42:17.700 and what
00:42:18.940 we're finding
00:42:19.400 out is what
00:42:20.040 you were saying
00:42:20.440 earlier
00:42:20.780 it appears
00:42:21.640 that when
00:42:22.420 we put
00:42:22.920 people on
00:42:23.720 ventilators
00:42:24.340 it tends
00:42:25.700 to accelerate
00:42:26.420 the process
00:42:26.940 you want to
00:42:27.660 delay that
00:42:28.180 as long
00:42:28.940 as possible
00:42:29.520 and that
00:42:30.520 knowledge
00:42:30.880 is just
00:42:31.500 now
00:42:31.840 getting to
00:42:32.500 circulate
00:42:32.980 around
00:42:33.400 most of
00:42:34.420 guys like
00:42:35.420 me
00:42:35.680 in rural
00:42:36.560 communities
00:42:37.080 the old
00:42:38.220 way of
00:42:38.540 thinking
00:42:38.740 was
00:42:39.180 if you
00:42:39.880 come in
00:42:40.360 your
00:42:40.540 sats
00:42:40.980 are low
00:42:41.480 you look
00:42:41.980 like crap
00:42:42.480 you put
00:42:42.880 them on
00:42:43.120 the tube
00:42:43.560 have
00:42:44.080 you tried
00:42:45.320 the nose
00:42:46.380 cannulas
00:42:47.160 for the
00:42:48.120 oxygen
00:42:48.500 yes
00:42:49.080 we call
00:42:49.860 it high
00:42:50.100 flow
00:42:50.280 oxygen
00:42:50.700 and that's
00:42:52.100 what we use
00:42:52.700 primarily
00:42:53.160 now
00:42:53.740 in fact
00:42:55.200 I've actually
00:42:56.700 proned
00:42:57.180 patients
00:42:57.620 without being
00:42:58.200 on a
00:42:58.440 ventilator
00:42:58.800 we used
00:42:59.220 to only
00:43:00.140 prone
00:43:00.480 patients
00:43:00.880 tell people
00:43:02.860 what that
00:43:03.840 means
00:43:04.100 to prone
00:43:04.560 them
00:43:04.760 to put
00:43:05.800 them on
00:43:06.020 their
00:43:06.140 stomach
00:43:06.440 so most
00:43:07.800 of the
00:43:08.020 volume
00:43:08.300 of your
00:43:08.600 lung
00:43:09.020 is
00:43:09.480 on
00:43:10.140 the
00:43:10.280 back
00:43:10.520 side
00:43:10.720 of
00:43:10.840 your
00:43:10.960 lung
00:43:11.280 and
00:43:11.580 if
00:43:11.700 you're
00:43:11.800 laying
00:43:12.100 on
00:43:12.280 your
00:43:12.400 back
00:43:12.720 that
00:43:13.160 part
00:43:13.420 fills
00:43:13.700 up
00:43:13.880 with
00:43:14.020 fluid
00:43:14.340 and
00:43:14.540 you
00:43:14.640 don't
00:43:14.780 get
00:43:14.940 good
00:43:15.120 oxygen
00:43:15.440 transfer
00:43:15.940 by
00:43:16.660 flipping
00:43:17.080 you
00:43:17.320 over
00:43:17.660 the
00:43:18.620 dynamics
00:43:19.080 of
00:43:19.240 the
00:43:19.340 lung
00:43:19.540 become
00:43:20.000 such
00:43:20.400 that
00:43:20.700 you
00:43:20.880 get
00:43:21.080 better
00:43:21.320 oxygenation
00:43:22.080 and
00:43:22.500 we
00:43:22.700 only
00:43:22.900 used
00:43:23.100 to
00:43:23.200 do
00:43:23.360 that
00:43:23.580 when
00:43:23.760 a
00:43:23.860 patient
00:43:24.120 was
00:43:24.380 like
00:43:24.600 far
00:43:24.900 gone
00:43:25.300 on
00:43:25.620 the
00:43:25.760 tube
00:43:26.120 last
00:43:26.900 ditch
00:43:27.140 effort
00:43:27.440 we
00:43:27.660 turned
00:43:27.880 them
00:43:28.000 over
00:43:28.180 in
00:43:28.340 the
00:43:28.440 bed
00:43:28.660 it's
00:43:28.780 a
00:43:30.940 real
00:43:31.040 pain
00:43:31.240 in
00:43:31.340 the
00:43:33.240 ventilator
00:43:33.800 they're
00:43:34.000 just
00:43:34.140 on
00:43:34.300 nasal
00:43:34.560 prong
00:43:34.840 cannula
00:43:35.320 and
00:43:36.860 we're
00:43:37.460 having
00:43:37.640 dramatic
00:43:38.400 responses
00:43:39.160 to that
00:43:39.500 they
00:43:39.680 actually
00:43:39.980 improve
00:43:40.340 quickly
00:43:40.720 it's
00:43:41.140 a
00:43:41.680 weird
00:43:41.880 thing
00:43:42.120 to see
00:43:42.440 a
00:43:42.600 patient
00:43:42.860 laying
00:43:43.180 on
00:43:43.340 their
00:43:43.480 belly
00:43:43.800 in
00:43:44.380 the
00:43:44.500 ICU
00:43:44.880 without
00:43:45.320 a
00:43:45.600 tube
00:43:45.820 down
00:43:46.040 their
00:43:46.180 throat
00:43:46.420 but
00:43:46.640 we're
00:43:46.860 seeing
00:43:47.100 that
00:43:47.260 more
00:43:47.440 and
00:43:47.540 more
00:43:47.740 do
00:43:48.400 you
00:43:48.580 think
00:43:49.160 that
00:43:50.340 maybe
00:43:50.700 because
00:43:51.040 it
00:43:51.600 does
00:43:51.840 seem
00:43:52.060 that
00:43:52.260 the
00:43:52.500 death
00:43:53.100 rate
00:43:53.320 is
00:43:53.500 dropping
00:43:53.900 quite
00:43:54.600 nicely
00:43:55.060 at
00:43:56.060 least
00:43:56.200 I
00:43:56.340 think
00:43:56.520 it
00:43:58.780 lockdown
00:43:59.140 slowly
00:44:00.260 ending
00:44:00.560 but
00:44:01.240 do
00:44:01.400 you
00:44:01.500 think
00:44:01.680 there
00:44:01.840 was
00:44:01.960 anything
00:44:02.320 that
00:44:02.800 the
00:44:03.260 doctors
00:44:04.720 were
00:44:05.040 collectively
00:44:05.660 doing
00:44:06.060 better
00:44:06.480 that
00:44:07.420 made
00:44:07.640 the
00:44:07.820 death
00:44:08.020 rate
00:44:08.220 go
00:44:08.400 down
00:44:08.620 in
00:44:08.740 other
00:44:08.880 words
00:44:09.020 did
00:44:09.140 they
00:44:09.240 change
00:44:09.560 your
00:44:09.680 procedure
00:44:10.180 medication
00:44:10.800 learn
00:44:12.000 something
00:44:12.420 they
00:44:12.600 didn't
00:44:12.820 know
00:44:13.140 because
00:44:13.380 this
00:44:13.580 whole
00:44:14.120 prone
00:44:14.520 thing
00:44:14.920 was a
00:44:16.060 pretty
00:44:16.200 big
00:44:16.460 deal
00:44:16.720 I
00:44:16.880 understand
00:44:17.220 but
00:44:17.500 I'm
00:44:17.620 wondering
00:44:17.840 if
00:44:18.060 you
00:44:18.160 think
00:44:18.420 there
00:44:19.020 was
00:44:19.120 any
00:44:19.320 one
00:44:19.580 thing
00:44:19.920 or
00:44:20.100 things
00:44:20.660 which
00:44:21.500 dramatically
00:44:22.300 changed
00:44:22.880 the
00:44:23.080 death
00:44:23.340 rate
00:44:23.660 well
00:44:24.140 it
00:44:24.580 may be
00:44:25.980 early
00:44:26.240 to say
00:44:26.520 but
00:44:26.680 if
00:44:27.240 I
00:44:27.360 had
00:44:27.580 to
00:44:27.860 surmise
00:44:28.360 yes
00:44:28.980 and
00:44:29.320 it
00:44:29.440 would
00:44:29.560 be
00:44:29.820 that
00:44:30.260 delaying
00:44:32.040 intubation
00:44:32.700 and putting
00:44:33.180 a person
00:44:33.560 on a
00:44:33.860 ventilator
00:44:34.400 seems
00:44:35.260 to be
00:44:35.800 the best
00:44:36.580 choice
00:44:37.080 and
00:44:38.000 is
00:44:38.360 probably
00:44:38.920 saving
00:44:39.400 more
00:44:39.620 lives
00:44:40.040 so
00:44:40.340 meaning
00:44:40.700 we've
00:44:41.360 always
00:44:41.620 known
00:44:42.060 that
00:44:42.500 putting
00:44:42.920 a person
00:44:43.280 on a
00:44:43.520 ventilator
00:44:43.980 across
00:44:44.500 the board
00:44:44.960 increases
00:44:45.460 mortality
00:44:45.980 but
00:44:47.460 in this
00:44:48.100 particular
00:44:48.600 wait
00:44:48.880 wait
00:44:49.080 wait
00:44:49.240 but
00:44:49.600 it
00:44:49.960 can't
00:44:50.960 increase
00:44:51.500 mortality
00:44:52.040 in general
00:44:52.660 or it
00:44:53.040 wouldn't
00:44:53.240 be used
00:44:53.820 well
00:44:55.800 it
00:44:56.780 depends
00:44:57.100 on how
00:44:57.340 you
00:44:57.440 compare
00:44:57.700 the
00:44:57.880 patients
00:44:58.280 so
00:44:58.480 you
00:44:58.620 know
00:44:58.760 how
00:44:59.120 statistics
00:44:59.580 are
00:44:59.960 but
00:45:00.420 wait
00:45:00.680 is
00:45:01.860 this
00:45:02.040 a
00:45:02.200 cause
00:45:02.440 and
00:45:02.560 effect
00:45:02.800 thing
00:45:03.040 because
00:45:03.240 you
00:45:03.400 only
00:45:03.900 put
00:45:04.120 the
00:45:04.280 ventilator
00:45:04.700 in the
00:45:04.920 people
00:45:05.180 who
00:45:05.420 are
00:45:05.600 you
00:45:06.000 know
00:45:06.140 it's
00:45:06.400 just
00:45:06.540 a
00:45:06.700 long
00:45:06.940 shot
00:45:07.160 anyway
00:45:07.440 right
00:45:07.720 you're
00:45:08.280 correct
00:45:08.800 but
00:45:09.220 there's
00:45:09.580 some
00:45:09.740 studies
00:45:10.020 out
00:45:10.220 there
00:45:10.360 that
00:45:10.500 suggest
00:45:10.980 that
00:45:11.220 if
00:45:11.940 you
00:45:12.060 can
00:45:12.240 minimize
00:45:12.660 the
00:45:12.880 time
00:45:13.180 on
00:45:13.340 a
00:45:13.460 ventilator
00:45:13.900 or
00:45:14.160 delay
00:45:14.520 going
00:45:14.840 on
00:45:15.080 to
00:45:15.240 it
00:45:15.360 in
00:45:15.480 some
00:45:15.680 cases
00:45:16.220 mortality
00:45:17.040 decreases
00:45:17.780 got
00:45:18.520 it
00:45:18.800 okay
00:45:19.280 but
00:45:20.340 with
00:45:20.560 this
00:45:20.780 virus
00:45:21.180 it
00:45:21.460 seems
00:45:21.760 to
00:45:21.940 be
00:45:22.180 that
00:45:22.540 you
00:45:23.300 know
00:45:23.460 you
00:45:23.700 only
00:45:24.060 want
00:45:24.240 to
00:45:24.320 put
00:45:24.460 somebody
00:45:24.740 on
00:45:24.900 the
00:45:25.000 ventilator
00:45:25.420 when
00:45:25.660 you
00:45:25.760 have
00:45:25.980 absolutely
00:45:26.500 no
00:45:26.720 other
00:45:26.900 option
00:45:27.320 and
00:45:28.280 even
00:45:28.620 those
00:45:28.880 patients
00:45:29.240 do
00:45:29.440 pretty
00:45:29.680 poorly
00:45:30.060 but
00:45:30.760 it
00:45:31.000 seems
00:45:31.260 to
00:45:31.440 accelerate
00:45:31.840 death
00:45:32.340 what
00:45:33.060 we're
00:45:33.220 seeing
00:45:33.600 if
00:45:34.660 you
00:45:35.060 put
00:45:35.260 them
00:45:35.360 on
00:45:35.560 early
00:45:35.920 like
00:45:36.160 we
00:45:36.340 used
00:45:36.540 to
00:45:36.700 for
00:45:36.920 other
00:45:37.200 conditions
00:45:37.720 you
00:45:38.060 might
00:45:38.260 actually
00:45:38.540 make
00:45:38.740 things
00:45:38.980 worse
00:45:39.400 and
00:45:39.780 so
00:45:39.960 I
00:45:40.120 think
00:45:40.380 that
00:45:40.600 may
00:45:40.800 be
00:45:40.960 saving
00:45:41.200 lives
00:45:41.600 the
00:45:41.860 knowledge
00:45:42.340 that's
00:45:42.660 getting
00:45:42.880 out
00:45:43.100 there
00:45:43.240 now
00:45:43.580 a lot
00:45:44.720 from what
00:45:45.200 Scott Weingart
00:45:46.340 is doing
00:45:46.720 in Stony Brook
00:45:47.400 is really
00:45:48.000 getting around
00:45:48.380 the nation
00:45:48.840 and we're
00:45:49.200 starting to
00:45:49.540 follow it
00:45:49.940 so
00:45:50.240 I've got
00:45:51.100 to ask
00:45:51.380 you about
00:45:51.640 vitamin D
00:45:52.340 we know
00:45:54.560 for example
00:45:55.080 I have to
00:45:56.380 watch out
00:45:56.700 for confirmation
00:45:57.460 versus
00:45:57.940 something that
00:45:58.860 actually makes
00:45:59.360 sense
00:45:59.620 so my
00:46:00.400 confirmation
00:46:00.860 bias
00:46:01.460 looks like
00:46:03.260 this
00:46:03.560 that
00:46:04.620 we know
00:46:05.060 vitamin D
00:46:05.660 is good
00:46:06.320 for your
00:46:06.600 immune
00:46:06.820 system
00:46:07.180 so it
00:46:07.540 makes
00:46:07.720 sense
00:46:08.000 it could
00:46:08.260 have
00:46:08.420 some
00:46:08.740 effect
00:46:09.420 and
00:46:10.620 if
00:46:11.320 we
00:46:11.680 observe
00:46:12.380 that
00:46:12.660 old
00:46:12.960 people
00:46:13.300 are
00:46:13.540 having
00:46:13.760 a
00:46:13.880 bad
00:46:14.060 time
00:46:14.360 well
00:46:14.600 that
00:46:14.800 makes
00:46:14.980 sense
00:46:15.200 because
00:46:15.400 they're
00:46:15.560 old
00:46:15.740 but
00:46:15.900 they
00:46:16.040 also
00:46:16.260 don't
00:46:16.680 get
00:46:16.820 out
00:46:16.960 as
00:46:17.100 much
00:46:17.320 sun
00:46:17.800 we've
00:46:19.680 heard
00:46:19.820 that
00:46:19.960 the
00:46:20.100 African
00:46:20.420 American
00:46:20.800 community
00:46:21.340 is
00:46:21.520 getting
00:46:21.760 hit
00:46:22.540 hard
00:46:23.000 they have
00:46:23.660 more
00:46:23.900 trouble
00:46:24.280 processing
00:46:25.100 vitamin
00:46:25.560 D
00:46:25.800 as I
00:46:26.220 understand
00:46:26.960 it
00:46:27.360 kids
00:46:28.480 are
00:46:28.640 doing
00:46:28.840 well
00:46:29.240 they
00:46:29.540 probably
00:46:30.280 get
00:46:30.480 more
00:46:30.620 sun
00:46:30.880 than
00:46:31.020 anybody
00:46:31.400 and
00:46:31.700 wear
00:46:32.140 less
00:46:32.480 sunscreen
00:46:33.080 even
00:46:33.560 though
00:46:33.740 they
00:46:33.880 shouldn't
00:46:34.160 maybe
00:46:34.400 so
00:46:35.360 there
00:46:36.000 seems
00:46:36.260 to
00:46:36.400 be
00:46:40.620 the
00:46:40.980 places
00:46:41.320 that
00:46:41.660 you
00:46:41.820 think
00:46:42.120 wouldn't
00:46:42.440 be
00:46:42.600 getting
00:46:42.880 much
00:46:43.300 such
00:46:43.720 as
00:46:43.900 the
00:46:44.060 Scandinavian
00:46:44.660 countries
00:46:45.140 they
00:46:45.780 know
00:46:46.000 they
00:46:46.160 don't
00:46:46.340 get
00:46:46.520 enough
00:46:46.760 so
00:46:46.960 they're
00:46:47.120 eating
00:46:47.320 cod
00:46:47.640 oil
00:46:47.880 and
00:46:48.120 fish
00:46:48.380 and
00:46:48.560 stuff
00:46:48.840 so
00:46:49.540 there's
00:46:49.940 an
00:46:50.040 almost
00:46:50.360 it's
00:46:51.220 alleged
00:46:51.560 there's
00:46:51.840 an
00:46:51.960 almost
00:46:52.180 perfect
00:46:52.560 correlation
00:46:53.140 between
00:46:54.080 how much
00:46:54.520 vitamin
00:46:55.000 D
00:46:55.260 you're
00:46:55.460 getting
00:46:55.760 and
00:46:56.400 how
00:46:56.900 much
00:46:57.100 trouble
00:46:57.400 you're
00:46:57.640 getting
00:46:57.820 but
00:46:58.540 confirmation
00:47:00.180 bias
00:47:00.600 would get
00:47:00.940 you to
00:47:01.100 the same
00:47:01.360 place
00:47:01.760 right
00:47:02.040 so
00:47:02.240 it
00:47:02.340 doesn't
00:47:02.520 mean
00:47:02.640 it's
00:47:02.800 true
00:47:03.100 it
00:47:03.720 just
00:47:03.840 means
00:47:10.620 correlation
00:47:11.060 does not
00:47:11.840 equal
00:47:12.100 causation
00:47:12.920 and
00:47:13.500 so
00:47:14.960 you can't
00:47:15.660 say
00:47:15.940 with any
00:47:16.380 certainty
00:47:16.780 from what
00:47:17.220 we're
00:47:17.380 seeing
00:47:17.680 with
00:47:17.960 this
00:47:18.340 type
00:47:18.820 of
00:47:18.940 studies
00:47:19.220 that
00:47:19.380 are
00:47:19.480 out
00:47:19.640 there
00:47:19.760 now
00:47:20.120 that
00:47:21.160 having
00:47:21.720 a good
00:47:22.100 vitamin
00:47:22.420 D
00:47:22.680 level
00:47:23.020 is
00:47:23.340 protective
00:47:23.840 versus
00:47:24.620 you know
00:47:25.460 the opposite
00:47:25.960 for
00:47:27.040 precisely
00:47:27.580 that
00:47:27.920 it's
00:47:28.280 just
00:47:28.620 a
00:47:28.800 correlation
00:47:29.280 there
00:47:29.600 could
00:47:29.740 be
00:47:29.880 a
00:47:30.160 thousand
00:47:30.560 other
00:47:30.800 factors
00:47:31.160 involved
00:47:31.660 all right
00:47:32.180 so
00:47:32.440 I agree
00:47:33.260 on
00:47:33.440 that
00:47:34.000 but
00:47:35.360 could
00:47:36.040 you
00:47:36.200 make
00:47:36.460 use
00:47:36.820 of
00:47:37.000 it
00:47:37.260 this
00:47:39.080 way
00:47:39.380 if
00:47:39.800 you
00:47:39.940 found
00:47:40.180 that
00:47:40.320 the
00:47:40.620 correlation
00:47:41.020 held
00:47:41.480 and
00:47:42.200 you
00:47:42.360 wouldn't
00:47:42.820 know
00:47:42.980 which
00:47:43.160 way
00:47:43.340 it
00:47:43.440 went
00:47:43.740 could
00:47:44.400 be
00:47:44.560 the
00:47:44.760 low
00:47:45.260 vitamin
00:47:45.600 D
00:47:45.840 as
00:47:46.080 a
00:47:46.200 marker
00:47:46.520 for
00:47:46.960 having
00:47:47.680 a
00:47:48.000 bad
00:47:48.260 immunity
00:47:48.680 to
00:47:48.880 begin
00:47:49.080 with
00:47:49.300 so
00:47:49.900 suppose
00:47:50.320 you
00:47:50.520 could
00:47:50.660 easily
00:47:50.960 test
00:47:51.280 for
00:47:51.440 vitamin
00:47:51.780 D
00:47:52.080 could
00:47:52.420 you
00:47:52.540 then
00:47:52.760 say
00:47:52.940 look
00:47:53.240 you
00:47:54.180 folks
00:47:54.540 who
00:47:54.680 have
00:47:54.840 boosted
00:47:55.240 your
00:47:55.380 vitamin
00:47:55.720 D
00:47:56.000 you're
00:47:56.780 probably
00:47:57.020 going
00:47:57.200 to be
00:47:57.400 in
00:47:57.540 better
00:47:57.760 shape
00:47:58.260 no
00:48:00.140 if
00:48:00.560 you
00:48:00.680 couldn't
00:48:00.960 boost
00:48:02.160 your
00:48:02.340 vitamin
00:48:02.640 D
00:48:02.900 would
00:48:03.180 mean
00:48:03.380 you're
00:48:03.640 probably
00:48:03.940 in
00:48:04.140 such
00:48:04.340 bad
00:48:04.620 shape
00:48:10.620 question
00:48:11.120 I
00:48:11.620 am
00:48:12.240 recommending
00:48:12.800 people
00:48:13.520 get
00:48:14.140 on
00:48:14.360 a
00:48:14.620 reasonable
00:48:15.860 dose
00:48:16.340 of
00:48:16.520 vitamin
00:48:16.800 D
00:48:17.060 if
00:48:17.240 they're
00:48:17.360 not
00:48:17.600 taking
00:48:18.000 it
00:48:18.260 whether
00:48:18.600 or
00:48:18.800 not
00:48:18.980 they
00:48:19.120 know
00:48:19.280 their
00:48:19.400 levels
00:48:19.800 are
00:48:20.540 high
00:48:20.840 or low
00:48:21.140 because
00:48:21.420 it's
00:48:21.840 harmless
00:48:22.300 to begin
00:48:22.980 with
00:48:23.300 it's
00:48:23.640 cheap
00:48:24.120 and
00:48:24.960 a lot
00:48:25.540 of
00:48:25.660 people
00:48:25.860 are
00:48:26.020 deficient
00:48:26.440 anyways
00:48:27.000 and
00:48:27.240 it's
00:48:27.760 been
00:48:27.920 proven
00:48:28.320 that
00:48:28.600 there's
00:48:28.840 a
00:48:29.080 multitude
00:48:29.480 of
00:48:29.780 other
00:48:30.100 conditions
00:48:30.700 that
00:48:31.240 you
00:48:32.380 improve
00:48:33.180 with
00:48:33.480 improving
00:48:34.760 your
00:48:34.940 vitamin
00:48:35.160 D
00:48:35.380 level
00:48:35.680 so
00:48:35.940 I
00:48:36.180 think
00:48:36.440 it's
00:48:36.960 one
00:48:37.100 of
00:48:37.200 these
00:48:37.420 there
00:48:37.960 may
00:48:38.080 not
00:48:38.200 be
00:48:38.320 a
00:48:38.460 study
00:48:38.720 but
00:48:38.880 like
00:48:39.080 you
00:48:39.220 alluded
00:48:39.500 to
00:48:39.700 earlier
00:48:40.140 it's
00:48:40.780 a
00:48:40.900 decision
00:48:41.300 making
00:48:41.660 process
00:48:42.640 and
00:48:43.160 it
00:48:43.400 just
00:48:43.600 makes
00:48:43.940 sense
00:48:44.380 to
00:48:44.660 take
00:48:44.960 vitamin
00:48:45.340 D
00:48:45.620 so
00:48:46.280 that's
00:48:46.580 where
00:48:46.760 I'm
00:48:47.040 at
00:48:47.220 with
00:48:47.440 it
00:48:47.580 maybe
00:48:47.860 I'm
00:48:48.100 wrong
00:48:48.400 maybe
00:48:48.680 people
00:48:49.040 criticize
00:48:49.420 me
00:48:49.720 for
00:48:49.840 that
00:48:50.060 but
00:48:50.280 I'm
00:48:50.580 telling
00:48:50.760 people
00:48:51.040 to
00:48:51.220 take
00:48:51.420 about
00:48:51.640 10,000
00:48:52.200 units
00:48:52.500 a
00:48:52.660 day
00:48:52.860 and
00:48:53.700 go on
00:48:55.060 with
00:48:55.180 life
00:48:55.380 if
00:48:55.500 they
00:48:55.600 can
00:48:55.800 so
00:48:56.120 all
00:48:57.780 right
00:48:57.920 that sounds
00:48:58.400 like a
00:48:59.120 good
00:48:59.300 risk
00:48:59.720 reward
00:49:00.140 it is
00:49:00.500 possible
00:49:00.900 to
00:49:01.120 don't
00:49:04.320 eat
00:49:04.540 polar
00:49:05.160 bear
00:49:05.380 liver
00:49:05.720 that's
00:49:08.240 the best
00:49:08.680 advice
00:49:09.060 I've
00:49:09.280 had
00:49:09.400 today
00:49:09.720 no
00:49:11.260 polar
00:49:11.980 bear
00:49:12.260 liver
00:49:12.680 and
00:49:13.080 when
00:49:13.200 you
00:49:13.320 talk
00:49:13.560 to
00:49:13.720 your
00:49:13.940 doctor
00:49:14.400 friends
00:49:14.880 and
00:49:15.180 nobody
00:49:16.340 is
00:49:16.600 watching
00:49:16.960 so
00:49:17.220 you
00:49:17.320 can
00:49:17.440 say
00:49:17.600 anything
00:49:17.880 you
00:49:18.080 want
00:49:18.380 what
00:49:19.380 meds
00:49:20.440 do
00:49:20.800 they
00:49:21.060 think
00:49:21.500 are
00:49:21.900 the
00:49:22.300 killers
00:49:22.900 if
00:49:23.620 they
00:49:24.360 all
00:49:24.540 got
00:49:24.720 together
00:49:25.060 the
00:49:25.320 doctors
00:49:25.700 you
00:49:25.840 talked
00:49:26.080 to
00:49:26.240 and
00:49:26.380 made
00:49:26.540 a
00:49:26.680 bet
00:49:26.960 they
00:49:27.580 could
00:49:27.720 only
00:49:27.900 pick
00:49:28.180 one
00:49:28.680 therapeutic
00:49:29.880 or
00:49:30.560 it
00:49:30.640 could
00:49:31.120 see
00:49:31.280 if
00:49:31.480 you
00:49:31.560 know
00:49:31.680 something
00:49:31.940 there
00:49:32.160 which
00:49:33.100 one
00:49:33.300 would
00:49:33.440 they
00:49:33.560 bet
00:49:33.800 on
00:49:34.080 doesn't
00:49:34.600 mean
00:49:34.740 they're
00:49:34.920 right
00:49:35.140 but
00:49:35.320 what
00:49:35.500 do
00:49:35.740 you
00:49:35.780 think
00:49:35.920 they
00:49:36.040 would
00:49:36.160 bet
00:49:36.320 on
00:49:36.520 current
00:49:37.880 medicine
00:49:38.360 has
00:49:38.660 nothing
00:49:38.980 to do
00:49:39.340 with
00:49:39.480 coronavirus
00:49:39.960 no
00:49:43.000 the
00:49:43.180 question
00:49:43.500 is
00:49:43.840 what
00:49:44.240 medicine
00:49:44.740 would
00:49:45.080 they
00:49:45.260 bet
00:49:45.560 on
00:49:45.860 that
00:49:46.560 would
00:49:46.980 be
00:49:47.600 the
00:49:47.740 most
00:49:48.000 effective
00:49:48.500 if
00:49:48.920 anything
00:49:49.320 against
00:49:50.280 coronavirus
00:49:50.700 in other
00:49:51.260 words
00:49:51.440 would
00:49:51.580 they
00:49:51.700 go
00:49:51.840 with
00:49:51.960 hydroxychloroquine
00:49:53.600 remezivir
00:49:54.980 or whatever
00:49:55.360 yeah
00:49:55.620 I understand
00:49:56.200 well
00:49:56.600 so
00:49:58.180 I think
00:49:58.800 hydroxychloroquine
00:49:59.640 to be honest
00:50:00.500 with you
00:50:00.800 and remdesivir
00:50:01.660 I think
00:50:02.380 as you're
00:50:02.740 aware
00:50:03.060 the way
00:50:03.420 they
00:50:03.580 powered
00:50:03.880 that
00:50:04.100 study
00:50:04.420 didn't
00:50:04.800 really
00:50:05.060 look at
00:50:05.560 mortality
00:50:06.080 it looked
00:50:06.460 at
00:50:06.600 time
00:50:06.820 to cure
00:50:07.220 so
00:50:07.620 the
00:50:08.300 cure
00:50:08.480 is
00:50:08.640 way
00:50:08.840 out
00:50:09.040 on that
00:50:09.440 yeah
00:50:09.900 way
00:50:10.100 out
00:50:10.360 so
00:50:11.740 what
00:50:12.220 about
00:50:12.700 the
00:50:12.960 monoclonals
00:50:13.940 interesting
00:50:15.900 I understand
00:50:16.760 DARPA is
00:50:17.460 going to be
00:50:17.780 doing some
00:50:18.200 work with
00:50:18.740 it
00:50:18.920 and
00:50:19.320 you know
00:50:20.000 we're all
00:50:20.280 excited to
00:50:20.860 hear what's
00:50:21.200 going to
00:50:21.440 happen
00:50:21.700 with that
00:50:22.160 but
00:50:22.440 there's
00:50:23.020 just
00:50:23.240 we have
00:50:23.840 no
00:50:24.080 you know
00:50:24.460 the average
00:50:24.980 guy on
00:50:25.460 the street
00:50:26.120 like me
00:50:26.760 all we do
00:50:28.080 is read
00:50:28.380 about it
00:50:28.700 we have
00:50:28.920 no experience
00:50:29.480 with it
00:50:29.860 so
00:50:30.140 we're
00:50:30.860 excited
00:50:31.380 to hear
00:50:31.660 about it
00:50:32.060 so
00:50:32.300 here's
00:50:32.880 the question
00:50:33.300 I don't
00:50:34.340 know that
00:50:34.620 you would
00:50:34.860 answer this
00:50:36.160 but
00:50:36.440 just
00:50:36.960 for the
00:50:37.500 audience
00:50:37.860 it seems
00:50:39.560 to be
00:50:39.940 that if
00:50:40.340 you can
00:50:40.620 find
00:50:40.920 somebody
00:50:41.380 who's
00:50:41.820 you know
00:50:42.180 already
00:50:42.380 got the
00:50:42.720 antibodies
00:50:43.220 that the
00:50:44.500 hard way
00:50:45.000 to get
00:50:45.340 enough
00:50:45.620 of them
00:50:45.880 is to
00:50:46.180 take
00:50:46.420 them
00:50:46.600 from
00:50:46.860 each
00:50:47.100 individual
00:50:47.680 who can
00:50:48.460 give
00:50:48.660 you
00:50:48.780 a pint
00:50:49.140 of blood
00:50:49.520 that seems
00:50:49.920 like
00:50:50.220 hard to
00:50:51.080 scale
00:50:51.400 that up
00:50:51.940 but
00:50:52.660 if you
00:50:53.380 could clone
00:50:54.360 it
00:50:54.640 you could
00:50:55.440 scale it
00:50:55.980 faster
00:50:56.380 except
00:50:56.860 I don't
00:50:57.700 think we
00:50:58.060 have enough
00:50:58.460 cloning
00:50:58.980 resources
00:51:00.140 we know
00:51:00.640 how to
00:51:00.960 clone
00:51:01.240 but it's
00:51:01.740 not something
00:51:02.180 that scales
00:51:02.680 that easily
00:51:03.140 so the
00:51:03.800 question I
00:51:04.220 have is
00:51:04.580 who makes
00:51:05.280 those cloning
00:51:05.920 devices
00:51:06.460 who makes
00:51:07.700 the lab
00:51:08.960 equipment
00:51:09.420 that could
00:51:10.500 if the
00:51:11.820 federal
00:51:12.540 government
00:51:12.980 said
00:51:13.360 look guys
00:51:14.860 there's one
00:51:15.780 thing that
00:51:16.220 we're pretty
00:51:17.040 sure is going
00:51:17.740 to work
00:51:18.100 because would
00:51:18.580 you back
00:51:19.380 me on this
00:51:19.880 following statement
00:51:20.680 but tell me
00:51:21.660 if this is
00:51:22.120 too strong
00:51:22.720 it can't
00:51:24.000 be wrong
00:51:24.460 to put
00:51:24.980 antibodies
00:51:25.480 into
00:51:25.800 people
00:51:26.160 is that
00:51:27.100 too
00:51:27.260 strong
00:51:27.600 I don't
00:51:31.420 think it's
00:51:32.140 too terribly
00:51:32.800 strong
00:51:33.160 I mean
00:51:33.380 there's
00:51:33.580 going to
00:51:33.780 be a
00:51:34.080 couple
00:51:34.340 cases
00:51:34.760 obviously
00:51:35.440 outliers
00:51:36.180 but I
00:51:36.520 think in
00:51:36.860 general
00:51:37.120 it's probably
00:51:37.720 a good
00:51:38.020 idea
00:51:38.340 so if
00:51:40.380 we could
00:51:40.920 just put
00:51:41.360 a
00:51:41.580 let's
00:51:42.120 say
00:51:42.320 Manhattan
00:51:43.300 project
00:51:43.960 on whatever
00:51:44.720 this lab
00:51:45.300 equipment
00:51:45.640 is
00:51:46.000 so we
00:51:46.700 can scale
00:51:47.180 up enough
00:51:47.700 just take
00:51:48.180 the hardiest
00:51:49.060 antibodies
00:51:49.620 we can
00:51:50.140 and just
00:51:51.020 start making
00:51:51.600 this stuff
00:51:52.100 now
00:51:52.900 would it
00:51:53.560 have to
00:51:53.920 be
00:51:54.500 injected
00:51:55.420 or would
00:51:56.440 it be
00:51:56.680 a pill
00:51:57.260 intravenous
00:51:58.340 IVIG
00:51:59.080 is the
00:51:59.620 kind of
00:52:00.460 use
00:52:00.620 yeah
00:52:01.100 it's
00:52:02.100 kind of
00:52:02.540 a slow
00:52:02.960 infusion
00:52:03.460 so it
00:52:04.540 can't
00:52:04.820 so that
00:52:06.000 doesn't
00:52:06.280 scale
00:52:06.560 that well
00:52:07.100 either
00:52:07.320 you can't
00:52:07.740 just
00:52:07.900 inoculate
00:52:08.440 everybody
00:52:08.940 or use
00:52:09.780 it prophylactically
00:52:10.560 the doctors
00:52:11.120 with infusion
00:52:11.840 centers
00:52:12.220 would be
00:52:12.540 making the
00:52:12.980 killing
00:52:13.260 yeah
00:52:14.240 well you
00:52:14.980 could
00:52:15.160 but you
00:52:16.020 know
00:52:16.120 that's
00:52:16.340 another
00:52:16.540 thing
00:52:16.760 you
00:52:16.900 could
00:52:17.040 scale
00:52:17.340 up
00:52:17.580 right
00:52:17.800 sure
00:52:18.340 there
00:52:18.460 must
00:52:18.680 be
00:52:18.940 all
00:52:19.900 you
00:52:20.060 need
00:52:20.200 is
00:52:20.360 a
00:52:20.580 nurse
00:52:21.040 or a
00:52:21.440 phlebotanist
00:52:22.060 right
00:52:22.300 I've
00:52:22.740 been
00:52:22.880 looking
00:52:23.080 for a
00:52:23.400 reason
00:52:23.540 to get
00:52:23.820 in
00:52:23.900 that
00:52:24.020 business
00:52:24.400 there
00:52:25.960 you
00:52:26.060 go
00:52:26.300 all
00:52:27.040 right
00:52:27.180 well
00:52:27.820 this
00:52:28.180 this was
00:52:29.420 a great
00:52:30.060 call
00:52:30.460 thank you
00:52:31.380 so much
00:52:31.680 I'm
00:52:32.300 watching
00:52:32.820 the audience
00:52:33.340 comments
00:52:33.780 and they're
00:52:34.140 really happy
00:52:34.880 so thanks
00:52:35.980 for that
00:52:36.340 I wanted
00:52:37.120 to say
00:52:37.520 briefly
00:52:38.100 you are
00:52:39.480 one of my
00:52:40.160 heroes
00:52:40.540 and the
00:52:40.980 reason I
00:52:41.420 say that
00:52:41.840 is
00:52:42.160 is that
00:52:42.760 I know
00:52:43.260 that what
00:52:43.800 you do
00:52:44.260 has come
00:52:44.660 to a
00:52:45.000 personal
00:52:45.460 cost
00:52:45.900 to you
00:52:46.320 and I
00:52:47.320 think
00:52:47.460 that you're
00:52:47.740 doing it
00:52:48.040 for the
00:52:48.340 betterment
00:52:48.820 of humanity
00:52:49.260 I believe
00:52:49.840 that
00:52:50.160 and I
00:52:50.360 believe
00:52:50.520 you're
00:52:50.660 taking
00:52:50.860 a
00:52:51.000 personal
00:52:51.260 cost
00:52:51.700 and
00:52:51.960 kudos
00:52:52.920 to you
00:52:53.380 for that
00:52:53.720 I really
00:52:54.100 appreciate
00:52:54.460 that
00:52:54.780 thank you
00:52:55.660 I appreciate
00:52:56.480 that very
00:52:56.980 much
00:52:57.300 and yeah
00:52:57.720 I do
00:52:58.000 take it
00:52:58.340 personally
00:52:58.680 all right
00:53:00.260 thank you
00:53:00.860 thank you
00:53:01.360 Scott
00:53:01.620 bye
00:53:02.260 all right
00:53:04.540 I believe
00:53:09.400 that's enough
00:53:09.900 for today
00:53:10.820 and I will
00:53:11.760 talk to you
00:53:12.360 in the morning