Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 970 Scott Adams： ObamaGate, COVID19 Fake News, Fake Polls and Fun

00:00:00.000 hey everybody well what a great day no really this is gonna be one of the best

00:00:16.800 days of the whole week and what better way to kick it off than the simultaneous

00:00:25.440 sip that's right that's right you said it at the same time and all you need to enjoy the simultaneous

00:00:31.680 sip to its maximum potential i'm talking maximum potential here we're talking about the kind of

00:00:39.480 simultaneous sip that will boost your immune response i'm talking about the kind of thing

00:00:44.500 that will move mountains change civilizations yeah that kind of simultaneous sip and it's coming at

00:00:51.620 you but all you need all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or sign a canteen

00:00:59.240 jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for

00:01:06.100 the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better 0.95

00:01:10.620 including the damn pandemic it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go 0.93

00:01:16.280 i feel like i could eat raw pangolin right now it wouldn't bother me nope easy um 0.98

00:01:32.320 weird comments today let's talk about my notes instead of your weird comments about hot dogs and

00:01:40.520 i don't even want to read the rest of that stuff it's a weird day today all right i noticed this

00:01:49.280 morning that i've got 150 000 views for my video that's pinned on my twitter feed uh teaching you the

00:01:57.900 user interface for reality and uh 150 000 views is a lot for what i do and i actually went back and

00:02:09.840 watched it again like a viewer there's a strange phenomenon that happens when i make these videos

00:02:15.880 and i i first noticed this when i used to give speeches and a lot of interviews uh live interviews

00:02:22.780 i would do i could do an hour-long interview and when i walked away i would have no memory of it

00:02:29.540 i mean i would have a general memory of it but i wouldn't really remember what i answered or what i

00:02:34.660 talked about because i do so many of these and so i did the uh the the user interface to reality video

00:02:41.160 and i kind of forgot about it instantly the way i always do not in any special way but the way i

00:02:49.600 always do when i walk away it's like okay i know i talked about that general topic but i don't have a

00:02:54.060 i don't hold it in my memory as a whole so when i when i watch myself on playback i have this weird

00:03:02.220 experience of watching it like like i'm watching it for the first time like it wasn't me who just

00:03:08.380 said it 24 hours ago it's the strangest thing it's like it's like a third party experience where you're

00:03:14.900 just watching somebody else because i don't know what i'm going to say just like you don't when

00:03:20.380 you're watching it because i don't remember what i said in what order and as i'm saying it i'm watching

00:03:24.840 it and i had the weirdest experience watching myself talk uh and saying things i didn't quite

00:03:32.600 know what i was going to say as i said them but here's the the thing that i got out of it i did not

00:03:38.480 know how much persuasion technique i build into just my regular communication uh until i watched it

00:03:47.040 as you know just an observer which i typically i'm not in my head and i thought to myself my god

00:03:54.060 somebody says were you high yeah i was of course um but

00:04:00.660 it wasn't the evening you should you should know the answer to that question but that's not why i

00:04:09.480 don't remember them the reason i don't remember them is common over my entire career no matter what

00:04:13.900 my mental state uh but you should watch if you watched it once for the content you might if you're

00:04:21.100 interested in technique especially if you've read win bigly if you've read win bigly look at the

00:04:27.800 persuasion technique that i use throughout and especially look at the this one variable which i

00:04:34.680 actually talk about in the video which is curiosity watch from the very beginning how i how i tweak your

00:04:42.360 curiosity to keep you for what is a pretty long video and ask yourself if you can feel it as it's

00:04:48.900 happening so that that's the fun part so see if you can feel yourself getting curious and actually

00:04:55.280 feel the persuasion trapping you to watch the rest of it just interesting to see if you if you felt it

00:05:01.480 all right the biggest fake news of the day is about testing uh this is i would call this a double fake

00:05:09.480 news so basically it's fake news on fox news it's fake news on cnn it's just all fake news here's what i

00:05:18.020 think is happening so this is my best interpretation of what's happening i won't give this 100 but it

00:05:25.640 feels like this is what's happening when the administration says that uh and president says

00:05:32.340 specifically anyone who wants a test can get one is that true because he says it multiple times said

00:05:40.020 yesterday anyone who wants a test for the coronavirus can get one or is it true as cnn is reporting

00:05:48.180 consistently it's not just not true uh bill gates would say it's not true that we don't have as much

00:05:58.280 you can't get a test just because you want one and we don't have enough so they can't both be true

00:06:03.960 right can it be true that everyone who wants one can get one at the same time that we don't have

00:06:10.280 enough can they both be true so one of them is true and one of them is a lie right which one is it

00:06:16.300 both lies both lies here's the answer i think i'll give you my theory i think that when the president

00:06:25.680 says anyone who wants a test can get one uh he's talking mafia talk here's what i mean hey uh doctor

00:06:34.240 can i can i get a test uh why do you want a test i just want a test i mean i think i might have it you

00:06:41.380 know it'd be nice to know if i had if i had it uh maybe i want to be around old people or something but

00:06:47.180 i want a test and then the doctor who also in my example happens to be a member of the mafia

00:06:52.960 just to make it interesting the doctor says you don't want that test and then the patient said no

00:07:00.560 i do want the test i'm just curious i'd like to see if i have it could mean could mean a big difference

00:07:06.200 to me and the doctor says uh these these tests you only want these if you've got symptoms and the

00:07:12.880 patient says no i want it i don't have any symptoms i just i just want it and the doctor says you don't

00:07:19.680 want that you don't want that you only want that if you have symptoms or if you're being contact traced

00:07:26.280 because you had contact with somebody else or you're part of our random selection for testing the

00:07:33.040 antibodies those are the three times you want it the other times you don't want it oh so i can get

00:07:41.420 a test if i want it but you're telling me that i don't want it now you got it you got it you can

00:07:49.200 get it if you want it but you don't want it in those other reasons right oh yeah i guess that was

00:07:57.500 my dr fauci impression it wasn't supposed to be dr fauci let's not make this ethnic that's my generic

00:08:05.160 mafia impression um from the godfather could you recognize it i thought it was spot on

00:08:12.420 so i would say that both sides are lying by omission the trump administration is lying that anybody can

00:08:19.680 get one and you know of course if you're talking about 50 states there's some little anecdote about

00:08:24.720 ohio doesn't have enough of whatever i'm sure it's true that in some places they're struggling to

00:08:31.580 get enough because that would just be normal right 50 states they're not all going to be equally ready

00:08:36.420 that wouldn't even make sense but it can't be true that anybody can get a test just because they want

00:08:41.860 one right the president is sort of talking mafia talk because remember as soon and i'm not guessing

00:08:49.400 on this because his his expert the what is it the second command at the health and human services

00:08:55.980 says it directly and by the way he's really good i forget his name who's who's the guy who's

00:09:01.480 number two at the health and human services jurower or something but i thought he was excellent when

00:09:08.780 he broke down that the tests are for if you have symptoms if you're part of contact tracing or you've

00:09:14.920 been selected by whoever for asymptomatic testing just to see what's in the atmosphere and i thought

00:09:21.960 that's actually a really good answer and that would be a way better answer than the way the president is

00:09:27.460 doing it because he's too easily taken taken uh let's say literally i guess and i don't think

00:09:34.640 that the president is speaking literally but when you're talking about health related objects or

00:09:40.960 situations you really need to talk literally you know that's where he gets in trouble yes juror so i

00:09:48.900 thought juror did a really good job of just setting it up three reasons that you need testing we do have

00:09:54.360 enough testing for those three reasons our focus on opening the economy is that testing we have

00:10:00.900 enough for that i think that's fair but they don't say that they say everybody can get a test that's just

00:10:06.520 technically not true here's what enough tests look like so over in china they've decided that they're

00:10:15.900 going to do some more testing in wuhan because i guess they got six new cases recently so that was a

00:10:21.300 little uptick they're concerned about that so china is planning to do 1.1 million tests per day

00:10:28.920 just in wuhan for 10 days in a row 1.1 million per day in one city 10 days in a row so it's not spread

00:10:41.560 over 10 days they're doing 1.1 million a day for 10 days one city how close are we to being able to do

00:10:50.660 that not even close right now we maybe we can get there by say end of the year or something but we're not

00:10:58.000 there so when somebody like bill gates or apparently china says enough tests is what it looks like for wuhan

00:11:07.840 that's what it means to have enough tests all right you know if you want to do enough testing to actually

00:11:13.900 stamp it down and eradicate it you're looking at that level of testing and we're not close to that

00:11:19.600 we're at the yeah you can have a test if you want it nah you don't want it you don't want it that's

00:11:26.300 what we have um i do think it is true however that probably amazing and heroic things are happening in

00:11:34.760 terms of ramping up so i think when jared talks about you know how amazing our our testing is increasing

00:11:42.360 you know it's like a hundred fold since 30 days ago or something some number like that

00:11:47.120 i think that's real and that should be lauded and we should be pretty darn happy about that but

00:11:54.520 um i think that we all have to be a little bit grown up about what is possible to to scale up to that

00:12:03.680 level of testing that we would need and to do that in two months is really sort of unprecedented i mean

00:12:11.600 to expect that it would have gone smoothly is asking a lot of a country that doesn't do anything

00:12:16.740 smoothly so anyway i think it is entirely possible that you could do a great job of getting testing

00:12:25.660 together from wherever it was to wherever it needs to be you could do the greatest job in the world

00:12:30.480 and still not get close to where you need it to be and i think that describes our situation

00:12:37.240 i do think the government probably did a great job of increasing testing it's just hard and it takes

00:12:46.880 a long time so what would be the standard to say that they had done it well or not done it well

00:12:51.880 it's purely subjective should it have been done in one week well it wasn't so they failed should it

00:12:59.560 take six months well they'll probably beat that they'll probably have all the testing they need in less

00:13:04.480 than six months is that a big success depends what you're measuring it against and we don't know what

00:13:10.120 what was what was par what would be a good job what would that look like we don't know there's no

00:13:16.180 reporting on that so you can't even tell if we did a good job or a bad job it is there's no i would say

00:13:22.140 there's not sufficient evidence that you can even have an informed opinion about whether the government

00:13:28.000 is doing a good or bad job you can tell if there's enough but you don't know if they got there the

00:13:33.260 right way or the best way one of the funniest things that you'll ever see and it's funny because

00:13:41.200 it works you know when when somebody does a really dumb trick and it works and you think that shouldn't 0.75

00:13:48.460 have worked that is the dumbest trick in the world it's so obvious what you did how does that work 0.86

00:13:53.820 and cnn did this they ran a poll in which they were asking people in the cnn poll who they trusted 0.97

00:14:03.020 the most to give them accurate information about the coronavirus situation and on cnn's poll

00:14:09.480 interestingly enough they found that people trusted cnn more than they trusted trump to tell them about

00:14:18.800 the coronavirus now here's the funny part why in the world would people not trust trump what would

00:14:28.560 cause that to happen could it be non-stop reporting by fake fake news cnn that he had wondered aloud about

00:14:39.040 drinking household disinfectants which of course never happened could it be that they're reporting on

00:14:46.320 uh his hydroxychloroquine which was smart risk management um conversation by adults which they

00:14:54.240 turned into he wants to kill people for no reason could it be that the reason that cnn viewers or at least

00:15:01.820 anybody who saw a cnn poll i don't know if they were just viewers i hope not uh if it was a decent poll

00:15:07.960 uh why why why is it that people might not trust trump well well maybe because all the reporting is fake

00:15:18.060 and people believed it when uh uh uh kaylee mcenany the uh new press secretary was asked why she used to

00:15:27.740 think something about trump and then she changed her mind and she said well i used to read uh i used to

00:15:33.500 listen to cnn and naively believe it which was a hilarious answer it doesn't cnn's poll kind of

00:15:41.440 answer itself like they actually have the guts to deliver fake news about what trump was saying for

00:15:48.960 months and then do a poll of whether you trusted uh trump's trump's opinions and then they weren't even

00:15:55.740 real ones now that takes guts okay you have to admit that's funny right i mean isn't it kind of funny

00:16:03.260 that they could get away with this they they can make up the news and then blame it on trump

00:16:07.780 uh here's a little thing that i just thought was funny so i watched the press conference i think

00:16:14.320 many of you saw it yesterday in which the reporters were wearing masks and the president wasn't

00:16:21.740 now we've all talked about the president not wearing a mask he i think he just doesn't think it looks

00:16:27.540 presidential and i'm not so sure he's wrong about that i'm a little bit on the fence on this one

00:16:34.660 because trump's instincts on this stuff the the visual persuasion are really strong so i would say

00:16:43.800 that he is probably taking a chance not probably i mean if he's not wearing a mask it's riskier than if

00:16:50.320 you were so let's agree that that's just um statistically a truth but how much of it is

00:16:56.600 how much of a risk is it for any one person who is otherwise healthy it's not the biggest risk in

00:17:02.760 the world you don't want your president to take risks but that's not the biggest risk in the world

00:17:08.220 if everybody else is being tested and he's not shaking hands anymore that sort of stuff so you can

00:17:13.460 see why trump would take the chance but you could also see why a reasonable person would say maybe you

00:17:18.700 shouldn't or be a better role model or whatever but anyway you can see the argument the part i loved

00:17:24.420 is that the reporters didn't have an option the reporters so so here's the visual for me that the

00:17:32.480 trump wants the press to shut up and they get up and they've got masks literally covering their mouths

00:17:39.040 and they're mumbling remember i have a question i have a question that you barely hear from my mask

00:17:45.920 but the president doesn't have a mask so the fact that the press was literally muzzled

00:17:51.580 and and we watched it they stood up and they were muzzled and then the president wasn't muzzled 0.80

00:18:00.020 i just loved the visual it was just this this wonderful moment of where the president was getting a

00:18:07.000 perfect visual persuasion now you know you could argue that he ruined it by getting snippy at the end and

00:18:14.760 walking off but i even at the end my my impression during the entire press conference is that he was

00:18:22.400 boring but in a good way you know every now and then you want you want trump to be boring right

00:18:28.600 because you don't want him to make news on some topics and every time he talks about uh uh the science

00:18:34.800 or anything about coronavirus in my head i'm saying no don't do it don't do it just just talk about the

00:18:43.680 political stuff don't talk about the science no no don't go there and then he goes there but

00:18:53.000 the thing the thing i always say about trump is that he doesn't know how to be uninteresting

00:18:58.860 i don't it's it's the most consistent thing you've ever seen he can't be uninteresting so he gives the

00:19:06.500 press conference totally totally straightforward um didn't get too political stuck to the facts

00:19:13.600 seemed just professional and and competent and i thought to myself yeah that's good it's professional

00:19:19.920 competent looks like he's on the ball i'm a little bit bored i think i'm watching an obama press

00:19:27.160 conference and then at the end he gets all snippy with the press you don't need to know the details

00:19:31.840 but he you know he made the the end of it memorable not in a good way because he just walked away after

00:19:39.460 a while thank you very much he was out of there and i thought to myself well there it is he cannot make

00:19:45.060 an appearance boring he doesn't know how to be boring so at the end he'd been boring the entire time

00:19:51.400 he's like well put a little dessert on there and and now it's national news

00:19:56.880 um let's see let's see let's see uh we got other stuff here one of the most interesting

00:20:08.440 elements of the fake news and let's call this a battle between the left and the right news

00:20:13.880 is this frame was trump a big success or a big failure and was uh andrew cuomo a big success or a

00:20:22.560 big failure well it seems to me that both cuomo and trump largely followed the advice of experts

00:20:29.880 for pretty much everything wouldn't you say as far as we know right i don't think either trump

00:20:35.440 or cuomo departed from experts but there might be one exception for both the one exception i believe

00:20:43.480 at least the way it's being reported is that trump departed from experts when he decided to close

00:20:48.840 travel from china except for u.s citizens and and uh that was right so now we we agree that

00:20:57.720 trump defined he d uh what would you call him he did what the experts were not telling him to do

00:21:05.760 and now we all agree that that was the right decision but otherwise i think he just did what

00:21:10.620 the experts told him to do now the states are not doing what the experts told the states to do but

00:21:16.620 that's sort of on the states so trump was compatible with the experts except for one big

00:21:22.860 big call a very big call which he got right was that a fair defied thank you i couldn't come up with

00:21:32.000 the word defied the experts um is that a fair summary could you do you think that even the other

00:21:39.920 side would say yes right or wrong trump followed the recommendation of the experts with just that

00:21:46.340 one exception closing the travel and he got it right cuomo as far as i know i could use a fact check on

00:21:53.940 this but i think cuomo probably followed the experts um to the one question i have is returning people to

00:22:01.560 the nursing homes which turned out to maybe kill 5 000 people now do we know here's here's the there's

00:22:10.700 a hole in the reporting i don't know if you've noticed this but this is very missing why did cuomo

00:22:16.440 or did he even know about it you know did the governor himself know that patients were being returned to

00:22:23.580 nursing homes i mean did he sign an order like that did did he talk to somebody did an expert say it would

00:22:29.560 be okay so when you're evaluating cuomo the part of the news that we don't have because we don't have

00:22:35.660 good reporting or i haven't seen it maybe maybe somebody has reported it is was cuomo simply following

00:22:41.260 the best expert advice what he said what do we do with these people if that conversation even happened

00:22:47.600 or was that a case where he violated or defied defied did he defy their advice somebody's saying yes he did

00:22:57.580 but uh oh so he signed the order to do it people are saying in the comments so let's say let's say

00:23:04.660 that that's true there's enough of you saying he signed the order did he know did he know that that

00:23:10.800 was what the experts were advising or did he know that the experts did not advise advise it because i

00:23:17.520 don't know if they did or did not were there any experts involved so i would like to know more about

00:23:23.040 that reporting it sounds like uh all of you are fact checking me and saying he did sign the order

00:23:27.880 so he was aware of it but being aware of it doesn't mean it was necessarily a mistake

00:23:34.200 unless we also know that the experts told him not to do it

00:23:39.000 uh serinovich has the order from cuomo on his twitter but that wouldn't tell us if the experts

00:23:45.220 had recommended it right okay so forget about the question of whether he signed it let's say he did

00:23:52.420 let's uh only focus on was he advised because it is looking like trump got everything right

00:24:02.960 at least in terms of being compatible with the experts whether it turns out right or not and the

00:24:09.440 one thing he wasn't he got right closing travel so is cuomo the same i don't know i will say this

00:24:16.620 again and again and again when we're blame we're looking back in the past in this fog of war once

00:24:23.360 we have our perfect vision of the future you know we'll be so smart in the future and we'll look back

00:24:27.940 and say well we should have done this we should have done that and i'm not going to stand for any of

00:24:32.860 it whether it's trump mistakes or cuomo mistakes alleged mistakes real mistakes any other governor's

00:24:40.140 mistakes any experts mistakes any of it because we were asking people to make decisions without

00:24:47.760 without the benefit of all the information that that was the task our leaders were given you know

00:24:53.620 our experts and our leaders please make our decisions we all understand we don't know what is

00:24:59.260 the right answer and and we're going to have to guess and we're going to have to adjust guess

00:25:03.700 adjust guess adjust so when you ask your leaders to guess what's right try it and then adjust because

00:25:13.680 that's the only thing we had we didn't have good information you know wouldn't it be great use all

00:25:19.280 our great drugs on our great information we'd have any of that we were totally in the dark and so if

00:25:25.260 you're totally in the dark and the only thing you can do is try stuff and then adjust and then we note

00:25:31.580 that our leaders were doing exactly that trying stuff and adjusting i'm not going to i'm not going to

00:25:37.940 tolerate for this governor got it right and this one didn't because if you got 50 governors somebody's going

00:25:44.340 to get it right does that mean they're the smart ones does it because you can't demonstrate that you can only

00:25:50.800 demonstrate that there was done 50 different ways and they got 50 different results you're not going

00:25:56.420 to really know who was the smart one you're really not so we should be easy on ourselves meaning our

00:26:05.100 leaders who had to make those decisions be they democrats or be they republicans i know it doesn't work

00:26:11.040 that way but we should all right here's the here's the weirdest thing oh i love the fact that i think

00:26:21.300 tucker carlson's the only one who talks about this that there actually is no uh evidence of russian hacking

00:26:27.480 on the podestas uh email did you know that that uh because it's been reported as just a fact

00:26:36.400 that we know the russians hacked us but if you actually dig down now we know with the obamagate

00:26:41.640 stuff coming out that we actually don't know that and i think you remember very early on when i was

00:26:49.860 talking about it the way i was talking about it was this how is it we know that russia was hacking

00:26:56.820 because if we know that russia was hacking i don't know what hacking is that's the part i was lost

00:27:03.940 i was like are you telling me that the our highest level government spy hackers leave a trail

00:27:12.660 that tracks right back to them those are like the best hackers in the world working for

00:27:19.320 top secret intelligence agencies they don't know how to hack something without leaving a trail

00:27:24.860 so that part was just mind-boggling to me that anybody believed that we could actually know

00:27:30.640 certainly you could leave a trail that it was someone else couldn't you isn't that common so

00:27:37.300 i always took that as i hear what you're saying that you know russia did it i hear you're saying

00:27:44.680 that you got your secret sources well i'm not going to buy the seth rich part of that story

00:27:50.320 you know i don't rule anything out if i don't have a reason to rule it out but i don't have a reason

00:27:57.140 to rule that one in all right uh so here is this two world thing happening with obamagate first of all

00:28:06.620 i very much love the fact that president trump has embraced the obamagate hashtag and label because

00:28:14.980 russia collusion has now been rebranded it was the final step because it was one thing to say russia

00:28:21.140 collusion russia collusion but that brand of the topic made trump look guilty just just when you

00:28:28.320 talked about it because they had russia collusion right in the name of the topic well now that we

00:28:33.360 know that that didn't happen at least in terms of the president's involvement or the administration

00:28:38.020 uh it needed a new name and obamagate is just sort of perfect political branding now i'm not saying

00:28:49.220 you know i'm not giving you a moral opinion i'm just saying that it's effective from the republican

00:28:56.200 perspective to call it obamagate you saw how sticky that was it was like the major trending thing and it

00:29:02.700 also it just just the name of it now puts it on obama but here's the question what do we know that

00:29:12.360 obama did here's what we know here's what we know and then i'll tell you what the two worlds have

00:29:20.060 divided into okay here's what we know that obama reportedly voiced concern voiced concern so this is

00:29:28.840 not gave an order he simply was voicing concern about potential russian influence with the trump

00:29:37.320 administration now that's that's what the uh the reporting is so the only thing we know

00:29:44.600 is that obama asked the question i think of comey and uh yates should we do anything differently

00:29:53.760 because there's some concern about flynn and uh russia now is that illegal is it illegal or even

00:30:05.620 unethical to wonder aloud whether there's any kind of russia connection that's important to know

00:30:13.760 with flynn now you say to yourself but scott there's no evidence that there's a problem

00:30:20.020 but you know everything everything that matters with whether this is an obamagate or just a

00:30:28.120 a series of bad decisions by individuals the difference is what obama's internal mental state

00:30:36.340 was and and what the internal mental state of comey and yates were when they had the conversation

00:30:44.100 that's not an evidence the thing we don't have an evidence is what anybody was thinking

00:30:50.040 we only have an evidence what people were saying and what obama was saying was a question

00:30:57.220 it wasn't an order it wasn't an order i did think he said give me the answer to the question

00:31:04.980 which is should we treat flynn differently now was the simple question from obama should we treat them

00:31:12.080 differently you know in other words brief them fully and all that stuff was that question really an

00:31:19.180 order and was that question an order with details like you know wiretapping and spy on the administration

00:31:26.860 could you say if the only thing you knew and you could never prove more than that is that obama simply

00:31:34.820 asked the question would that be enough to say that he ordered the takedown and the coup of the united

00:31:42.020 states okay can you connect those dots because i can't somebody says it's unethical to wonder aloud

00:31:50.940 why would it ever be unethical to wonder aloud if somebody was compromised by russia i don't get that point now

00:32:03.020 uh trent gowdy was on uh was it uh hannity show or tucker show i guess and tucker show and

00:32:12.940 trent gowdy said that there's a as yet still redacted memo so there's part of some memo might

00:32:20.660 have been susan rice's but uh trent gowdy says with a big smile because he's seen it you haven't

00:32:27.020 that when that gets unredacted that we're going to know a lot more so here's what i suspect

00:32:34.100 if i'm just looking at what's been reported and you know the the new stuff that's been unredacted

00:32:40.220 i don't see evidence that obama ordered uh ordered a takedown of the government you know the incoming

00:32:46.960 government so it's just not there what is there is a lot of circumstantial evidence what is there is

00:32:58.180 a lot of stuff to speculate about what is there is that reasonable people could look at this and say

00:33:06.680 you know scott i get that you're not like looking at the smoking gun but there's a lot of smoking guns

00:33:14.020 and there's way too many of them for this to need to be a coincidence so let me say as clearly as i can

00:33:20.820 i'm not telling you that obama didn't order it i'm not telling you that trey gowdy i'm sorry not

00:33:29.480 trent gowdy people are correcting me in the comments uh trey gowdy not trent um so yeah so

00:33:39.240 i'm not telling you obama is innocent i'm saying i haven't seen the i haven't seen the evidence have

00:33:45.140 you but it's being reported by you know fox news mostly types it's being reported that the smoking

00:33:53.520 gun has been found and and now we have the evidence that obama ordered basically a coup but i don't see

00:34:01.020 it i don't see it at all i i the only thing in evidence is he asked the question which wasn't the

00:34:07.940 worst question in the world to ask because you know i i've defended trump for asking in private meetings

00:34:15.200 you know crazy questions that just really are you know you throw out there you see what happens and

00:34:20.500 you move to the next crazy question so asking questions that are a little out there it's not

00:34:24.820 that unusual i don't think so if i had to guess where this is going i would guess that the further

00:34:33.660 unread actions will lay clear that there was more of a plot here than we know so if i had to guess

00:34:42.000 some somebody says if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck well that's where you're wrong

00:34:47.100 if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it's usually confirmation bias if you don't get that

00:34:53.940 you're not operating at the highest level of understanding of your reality let me say that

00:35:00.380 again you've heard the old saying you know if it walks like a duck it talks like a duck it's probably

00:35:05.680 a duck completely false and if you ever believe that you're wandering around in a dream world

00:35:12.460 if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it only might be a duck

00:35:19.280 it only might be did you happen to see the bill bar uh uh edited video that nbc showed according to

00:35:28.580 the nbc video that you saw with your own eyes you saw he you saw him laughing and saying well the winners

00:35:34.780 get the right history ha ha ha you saw it you with your own eyes you saw bill bar walking like a duck

00:35:43.020 talking like a duck quacking like a duck how could how could you be wrong he was just laughing at

00:35:49.000 winning and ignoring the rule of law you saw with your own eyes how could he be how could he be wrong

00:35:54.960 it's right there well oh except we soon found out that it was an edited video and you didn't see it

00:36:02.700 with your own eyes you saw the edited clip which when you see it in its entirety it literally reverses

00:36:08.380 the meaning because he says you know winners write the history but you know we hope it'll be written

00:36:14.640 compatible with the rule of law because it needs to be basically paraphrasing so if you're still stuck

00:36:21.480 in walks like a duck quacks like a duck it's a duck you've missed the last three years because it's

00:36:28.200 all walks like a duck quacks like a duck but isn't a duck president trump did not suggest drinking

00:36:34.440 bleach he did not call neo-nazis fine people but a lot of people saw it except they didn't they think

00:36:42.740 they did they thought they saw the duck quacking and walking how could it not be a duck i saw it

00:36:49.320 duck duck duck it's a duck all the way except it wasn't in any of those cases it's never a duck

00:36:56.020 so you need to lose that mindset however i would predict that things are seem to be heading in a

00:37:03.480 direction where we will know it's a duck so don't worry i feel like i'm going to end up where you are

00:37:10.460 because some of you um i know that those who watch me regularly can get uncomfortable if my opinion

00:37:17.500 differs too much from yours because i hear that all the time um but i expect that our opinions will

00:37:25.040 converge it's just that you're there you're there based on circumstantial evidence i need a little

00:37:31.940 bit more i don't think you're wrong necessarily i just think that maybe you're a little ahead of

00:37:38.040 the evidence that's been presented that's all but we'll probably end up in the same place

00:37:42.280 um the other thing that i thought was interesting and again i found this out on tucker's show i gotta

00:37:49.960 tell you tucker carlson's show is just one of the best things ever i mean you know i have my quibbles

00:37:57.340 about some of the stuff that's on there but that would be every show uh i mean any show i would have

00:38:02.760 some quibble about that but the the quality in which he lays out um i guess the view of the world

00:38:10.140 that you weren't seeing anywhere else it's just really well done i gotta say it's really well done

00:38:15.960 uh this whole obama gay stuff he laid out really cleanly i thought um here's my question where's the

00:38:27.380 worse than watergate guy where's carl bernstein because i'm not going to be happy until i see 0.88

00:38:35.280 carl freaking worse than watergate bernstein go on cnn ideally cnn and say you know if i'm being honest

00:38:44.680 obama gate is way worse than watergate now i don't think he can say that yet because for the 0.56

00:38:56.180 same reason that i'm not saying it because i think you need that that gun isn't quite smoking in my

00:39:02.240 world yet i think it will i think we'll unredact until we know what's going on but i just need to

00:39:10.740 see carl bernstein say i gotta admit obama gate's worse than watergate because if the allegations

00:39:16.460 are true it's far worse it's not even close wouldn't you say not even close somebody said what

00:39:22.540 is the threshold for evidence the threshold for evidence would be something that is reported

00:39:28.220 reliably that obama said that's it so if all he did was ask a question that's all we know but if he

00:39:38.780 said go take these guys out investigate them anything like that any direct order or it could

00:39:47.100 be even a note by an assistant so it could be an assistant's note that says you know the boss wants

00:39:53.680 us to do this or that i would take that as you know if those notes were taken at the time i would take

00:39:59.540 that as evidence all right um and some part of the story i don't quite think we understand all of

00:40:08.900 and that is this uh some part of the story is that the there's some underlying desire by the obama

00:40:19.040 administration to keep the pressure on russia and not so much on china so obama wanted to be a little

00:40:26.040 bit more anti-russia friendlier with china and knew that the flynn and the incoming administration were

00:40:32.520 the opposite that they would be a little friendlier toward russia a little less friendlier toward china

00:40:37.900 and i asked myself what's behind all of that don't you feel like there's some kind of money thing

00:40:46.240 behind that because if you were to look at it on the surface and talker said this last night

00:40:52.100 um flynn apparently was was uh writing off russia as a declining power one that's not actually a risk

00:41:02.700 to the existence of the united states isn't that just true wouldn't you agree that we don't have any

00:41:11.340 reason to be in a war with russia and in the long run it doesn't look like they're going to dominate us

00:41:16.160 economically so if you were to compare the you know rising china just because of population alone

00:41:22.700 and that will give them more money collectively just because of the number of people if china just

00:41:27.620 goes the way it's going how could you even compare the risk of china with the risk of russia that it 0.73

00:41:35.700 looks like 101 i don't even know how you'd put them in the same conversation and that's what flynn

00:41:40.200 said flynn said declining power no economic risk it's a regional power but china china is looking

00:41:49.480 to dominate the world and that could really you know have a big impact so what was it that made the

00:41:56.760 obama administration see the world opposite of that what was that and the only thing i can imagine

00:42:04.480 is lots of economic interests in china so the only thing i can imagine is that you know billionaires

00:42:12.020 and politicians etc had so much business with china but relatively little with russia right how many

00:42:19.200 billionaire democrats are doing big deals in russia besides besides maybe trump tried to and didn't

00:42:25.760 so if i had if i had to guess i would say that rich democrats wanted to keep their business in china

00:42:33.820 thought that trump was a risk to that and wanted to put the pressure on russia instead you always

00:42:41.720 need an enemy so i guess they wanted russia instead all right um

00:42:46.200 now there's one tantalizing uh bit that we're finding out that uh molly hemingway reports

00:42:53.900 that when obama was having this meeting that we've just learned about early on uh in which he was

00:43:00.420 uh talking about the transition that uh according to molly hemingway obama asked the people who would

00:43:06.960 be leaving at the end of his administration i think that was guys like brennan and clapper

00:43:11.920 to leave the meeting and he kept only those two people who would be continuing on in the trump

00:43:18.080 administration james comey and then deputy attorney general sally yates

00:43:23.820 and then molly says that's where they started hatching their plan to make sure that the incoming

00:43:29.540 administration would not find out what they had been doing is that in evidence is it in evidence

00:43:36.540 that that's where they started hatching their plan to make sure that the incoming administration

00:43:41.400 would not find out what they had been doing or what they had planned to continue doing

00:43:45.840 in terms of spying on the Trump administration.

00:43:52.040 Is that in evidence?

00:43:54.600 I would say I would need to see the documents in support of that.

00:43:59.620 All right.

00:44:03.120 Yeah, I guess that's where we're at.

00:44:05.740 So we're just interpreting that conversation as meaningful or not meaningful,

00:44:09.620 depending on who you are.

00:44:11.380 All right.

00:44:12.800 Here are some things affecting this coronavirus stuff.

00:44:15.380 They're sneaking up on us.

00:44:17.460 You know, I don't think we're going to have any kind of a magic bullet

00:44:20.460 for defeating the coronavirus,

00:44:22.340 but there's a whole bunch of stuff that in little ways seem like,

00:44:26.840 you know, they're going to chip away at it until it's important.

00:44:29.180 Here are all the things we're doing that probably will bring down the curve.

00:44:33.960 All right.

00:44:34.200 So individually, they're not very meaningful, but if you add them together.

00:44:38.460 So we've got the masks and social distancing.

00:44:41.120 No doubt that makes a difference.

00:44:42.520 We now know that the nursing homes have to be extra protected.

00:44:47.600 And that should cut the deaths in half, wouldn't you think?

00:44:50.020 If the only change we made was better protecting nursing homes, 0.96

00:44:55.180 death rate gets cut in half.

00:44:56.780 So we know we'll probably do that right.

00:44:58.360 The hydroxychloroquine seems to have some effect.

00:45:03.460 It's not a magic pill, but it does seem to help.

00:45:06.420 So you've got a little bit of that going on.

00:45:10.380 Apparently, the ventilator situation,

00:45:12.560 we're getting smarter and not killing people with ventilators.

00:45:15.680 Now, so if you were to simply subtract from our death toll all of the nursing home deaths,

00:45:22.060 which we now know how to prevent, and also all of the ventilator-caused deaths,

00:45:28.140 which are tragic, and it happened when they thought ventilators would make things better,

00:45:32.500 but probably were making things worse and actually killing people.

00:45:35.360 So if you took away all the ventilator deaths that we now know better how to avoid,

00:45:41.660 with the nose cannulas and the proning people on their stomach and all that,

00:45:45.920 the new techniques that they're using,

00:45:48.020 those two changes alone might drop the number of deaths by half, wouldn't you say?

00:45:53.520 And then you add on to that just knowledge that we have with the testing.

00:45:59.660 You know, we can test better.

00:46:01.520 And even knowing that I think the African-American community,

00:46:06.580 and especially men, are getting whacked harder,

00:46:09.220 and you can't directly turn that into action.

00:46:12.780 It's hard to say we know which groups are getting affected

00:46:15.260 and then directly turn that into something useful.

00:46:18.500 But I feel like we might be.

00:46:19.840 I mean, just the fact that if we know that the black population

00:46:25.120 has twice as much problems in terms of outcomes,

00:46:28.440 there might be some way to use that information productively

00:46:32.480 to protect a group of people better than we're doing.

00:46:36.340 So just the fact that we know more has given us tools to attack this thing.

00:46:43.720 And I think it has to be said that we probably have a pretty good chance

00:46:48.180 of keeping the curve flat for a good while.

00:46:54.140 The projections on death, at least one model has 137,000 by the end of August.

00:47:00.940 Where is that compared to what you thought it would be?

00:47:03.380 Of course, we don't know if that's real yet.

00:47:05.140 But compare the 137,000 projected deaths from coronavirus,

00:47:11.080 of which many of you suspect are being overcounted,

00:47:15.320 to the regular flu deaths, which we now suspect are close to zero.

00:47:21.580 If you've missed that story,

00:47:23.780 I talked about the doctor who looked into how we count regular flu.

00:47:29.260 It turns out the way we count the number of people who die from the regular annual flu

00:47:33.980 is we don't count them.

00:47:37.000 That's it.

00:47:38.280 Nobody's ever counted it.

00:47:40.080 We don't count how many people die of the regular flu.

00:47:44.060 It's determined by an algorithm.

00:47:46.720 They've got some model.

00:47:47.940 So basically, we have no idea.

00:47:51.180 So it's not a coincidence

00:47:52.840 that you don't know anybody who died of the regular flu,

00:47:57.720 but you probably do know somebody,

00:47:59.360 or you know somebody who knows somebody who died of coronavirus.

00:48:02.340 Because you're saying to yourself,

00:48:03.420 well, if the numbers are somewhat comparable,

00:48:06.240 why do I only hear about people dying from this one thing?

00:48:09.500 And my whole life,

00:48:10.740 I've never heard of anybody dying from this other thing.

00:48:13.040 Some of you have heard of people dying of flu,

00:48:15.120 but it's rare.

00:48:15.620 So the real number of people who die from the regular flu

00:48:18.680 might be a few thousand every year.

00:48:21.960 A few thousand.

00:48:23.300 That's it.

00:48:24.260 So you should be comparing,

00:48:26.340 let's pick a number.

00:48:27.360 Let's say 5,000.

00:48:30.580 So 5,000 for regular flu,

00:48:32.980 that's probably the real number.

00:48:34.740 The reason that it's inflated is so you'll get a shot.

00:48:38.000 It's so you'll get a vaccine.

00:48:39.560 Of course they want to scare you with the flu,

00:48:41.680 so you'll take it more seriously.

00:48:43.020 So let's say that the new estimate

00:48:47.560 is over 130,000 more deaths

00:48:50.460 than the regular flu.

00:48:53.660 If you were to buy those projections,

00:48:55.800 and I don't know that you necessarily would,

00:48:57.640 would you say,

00:48:58.660 uh-oh, I changed my mind.

00:49:00.560 I thought it was no worse than the flu

00:49:02.320 when the information I was getting,

00:49:04.640 which was flawed,

00:49:06.100 was that the regular flu is, you know,

00:49:08.320 20,000 to 60,000.

00:49:09.740 And this one's going to be around 60,000.

00:49:12.240 They looked about the same to me.

00:49:14.580 Is there anybody yet

00:49:16.020 who is willing to say,

00:49:18.500 okay, you got me.

00:49:20.600 This is not the regular flu.

00:49:23.180 Have you seen anybody do that yet?

00:49:24.740 I don't know if I've seen anybody

00:49:26.120 explicitly say,

00:49:28.120 okay, I was fooled.

00:49:29.940 I thought it was no worse,

00:49:31.280 but now I'm seeing these numbers.

00:49:32.960 Now I know how you counted the regular flu.

00:49:35.220 Wow, these are completely different.

00:49:36.720 I don't know if anybody's having that realization.

00:49:43.880 The Supreme Court stuff

00:49:45.620 is sneaking up on us

00:49:47.280 because I guess they have

00:49:48.540 some huge things going on

00:49:50.500 deciding whether we can look at

00:49:53.160 Trump's taxes right before election.

00:49:56.120 I mean, how cool is the movie?

00:49:58.780 I mean, you might hate it or love it,

00:50:00.580 but how cool is it

00:50:01.940 that sometime over the summer

00:50:04.060 you may or may not get a look

00:50:06.340 at Trump's taxes.

00:50:07.960 Now, I don't think we should.

00:50:09.860 In my opinion,

00:50:10.960 it's just,

00:50:11.640 it's unnecessary.

00:50:13.620 And

00:50:14.020 it just gives

00:50:16.340 political fuel

00:50:18.460 for

00:50:18.980 taking things out of context.

00:50:21.560 So basically,

00:50:22.260 Trump's taxes

00:50:22.900 is a gigantic

00:50:23.860 opportunity

00:50:25.000 for his enemies

00:50:25.780 to take things out of context.

00:50:27.400 That's it.

00:50:28.720 Misinterpreted,

00:50:29.320 taken out of context.

00:50:30.700 So,

00:50:31.200 it would be a gigantic story.

00:50:33.120 Most of it would be fake,

00:50:35.100 as we know.

00:50:37.060 But that's not even

00:50:38.060 the only thing happening.

00:50:38.980 They're talking about

00:50:39.480 DACA,

00:50:40.240 LGBTQ rights.

00:50:42.520 I don't know exactly

00:50:43.300 what that's about.

00:50:44.920 And,

00:50:45.480 you know,

00:50:46.420 even

00:50:46.700 redacting,

00:50:48.020 unredacting some stuff.

00:50:49.340 I mean,

00:50:49.560 there's

00:50:49.780 some big stuff coming.

00:50:52.360 So,

00:50:52.720 if you think this summer

00:50:53.680 is going to be boring

00:50:54.520 politically,

00:50:56.320 it's not.

00:50:58.340 Somebody says

00:50:59.100 Mueller saw his taxes.

00:51:00.820 That's a good point.

00:51:02.560 Did Mueller

00:51:03.080 see his taxes?

00:51:05.840 Because one would

00:51:06.700 assume he could,

00:51:07.540 right?

00:51:08.120 Because it's only

00:51:09.260 a question of

00:51:09.740 whether the public

00:51:10.300 sees them.

00:51:11.360 So if Mueller

00:51:12.040 saw them,

00:51:12.820 and he didn't

00:51:13.340 raise any flags,

00:51:15.140 then we would

00:51:16.200 only be worried

00:51:17.000 about people

00:51:17.460 taking things

00:51:18.040 out of context

00:51:18.760 and interpreting

00:51:19.640 them wrong.

00:51:21.040 All right.

00:51:21.880 Grinnell is

00:51:22.520 doing a great job

00:51:23.720 of pushing

00:51:24.280 the declassifications.

00:51:26.320 One imagines

00:51:27.180 that's why

00:51:27.560 he was put in that job,

00:51:28.540 because he's going to

00:51:29.040 push over

00:51:29.400 declassifications.

00:51:30.300 Where are we

00:51:33.480 with the golden age?

00:51:34.360 Good question.

00:51:35.780 Here's what I think.

00:51:36.900 I think this

00:51:37.460 coronavirus,

00:51:38.880 much as

00:51:39.600 Joel Osteen

00:51:41.080 said in his own way,

00:51:42.340 he put the

00:51:42.920 religious spin

00:51:43.600 on it,

00:51:43.980 but I don't,

00:51:45.600 I think that

00:51:46.340 the coronavirus

00:51:47.640 situation

00:51:48.220 is making us

00:51:49.180 rethink

00:51:49.860 all of our

00:51:51.360 systems

00:51:51.740 and all of

00:51:52.340 our assumptions.

00:51:53.620 And that when

00:51:54.340 you do that,

00:51:55.080 it lays bare

00:51:56.020 the flaws.

00:51:57.280 So the coronavirus

00:51:58.640 has surfaced

00:52:00.000 every problem

00:52:01.060 with everything.

00:52:03.020 Because as soon

00:52:03.680 as you get that

00:52:04.320 little extra

00:52:05.260 catch in the system,

00:52:07.160 anything that's

00:52:07.700 not working right

00:52:08.640 breaks immediately.

00:52:10.760 So you saw

00:52:11.960 breaks in the

00:52:13.120 healthcare,

00:52:13.960 the food supply,

00:52:15.440 you saw breaks

00:52:16.140 in all kinds of

00:52:16.760 stuff.

00:52:17.660 But even

00:52:18.280 education,

00:52:19.640 commuting,

00:52:20.440 working at home,

00:52:21.340 I mean,

00:52:21.580 just everything

00:52:22.440 from shaking hands

00:52:23.800 to what does

00:52:25.140 your social life

00:52:25.920 look like is

00:52:26.800 all going to

00:52:27.640 be rethought.

00:52:29.260 And when you

00:52:29.840 rethink things

00:52:30.820 at that

00:52:31.580 fundamental level,

00:52:32.680 when you

00:52:32.940 shake the box

00:52:34.420 and then you

00:52:34.980 turn your

00:52:35.460 geniuses loose,

00:52:37.280 what you've

00:52:37.800 done,

00:52:38.420 likely,

00:52:39.620 likely what

00:52:40.320 you've done

00:52:40.840 is created

00:52:41.880 an opportunity

00:52:42.640 for one of

00:52:43.260 the biggest

00:52:43.700 entrepreneurial

00:52:44.580 surges

00:52:46.500 in the history

00:52:47.380 of humankind.

00:52:49.380 Because usually

00:52:50.600 your society

00:52:51.440 gets a little

00:52:52.020 ossified,

00:52:53.140 you know,

00:52:53.780 regulations build

00:52:55.440 up and it's

00:52:56.040 just hard to

00:52:56.600 get anything

00:52:57.000 done.

00:52:57.840 And then

00:52:58.160 suddenly the

00:52:58.600 coronavirus comes.

00:53:01.180 What happened

00:53:01.980 to doctors

00:53:03.260 who couldn't

00:53:03.940 practice telehealth

00:53:05.100 across state

00:53:05.880 lines?

00:53:06.880 Was there ever

00:53:07.440 a reason for

00:53:08.100 that?

00:53:08.980 Was there ever

00:53:09.680 a good reason

00:53:10.440 doctors couldn't

00:53:11.780 make a phone

00:53:12.360 call across

00:53:12.940 state lines?

00:53:14.040 No,

00:53:14.540 there was never

00:53:15.040 a reason for

00:53:15.600 that.

00:53:16.120 So that rule

00:53:16.640 just went away.

00:53:18.340 Will it stay

00:53:19.200 away?

00:53:20.120 Don't know.

00:53:21.280 I think there's

00:53:21.780 a good chance

00:53:22.280 of it.

00:53:22.840 But if it did,

00:53:23.540 it could completely

00:53:24.380 transform.

00:53:25.440 You know,

00:53:26.040 health care.

00:53:26.860 You know,

00:53:27.220 why would you

00:53:27.920 go to a doctor

00:53:28.680 if there's one

00:53:29.680 right on your

00:53:30.140 screen and you

00:53:31.380 can just order

00:53:31.980 your meds or you

00:53:33.220 could go to

00:53:33.700 Walmart and have

00:53:34.580 the test that

00:53:35.580 your doctor tells

00:53:36.240 you to get?

00:53:36.720 Yeah,

00:53:36.920 just go to

00:53:37.320 Walmart.

00:53:38.240 Tell them you

00:53:38.660 need a 1-2-3

00:53:39.760 test.

00:53:40.640 You go to

00:53:41.000 Walmart,

00:53:41.840 take a little

00:53:42.220 blood, 0.90

00:53:43.480 give it to your

00:53:43.920 telehealth doctor.

00:53:45.300 I mean,

00:53:45.600 there are gigantic

00:53:47.060 structural changes

00:53:48.300 that are just

00:53:50.080 going to sneak up

00:53:50.780 on us.

00:53:51.480 And it's because

00:53:52.000 things changed

00:53:52.920 and it opened up

00:53:53.660 all these paths

00:53:54.340 for entrepreneurs.

00:53:55.440 So I think the

00:53:56.700 golden age is

00:53:57.640 guaranteed at

00:53:58.780 this point

00:53:59.300 and that the

00:54:00.660 coronavirus will

00:54:01.640 be like its

00:54:02.220 third act.

00:54:03.480 It will be the

00:54:04.060 thing you had to

00:54:04.920 get past for the

00:54:06.780 good thing to

00:54:07.340 happen.

00:54:08.040 Now, I would

00:54:08.760 argue similarly

00:54:09.600 that if you take

00:54:11.680 World War II,

00:54:13.220 while nobody would

00:54:14.200 ask for a

00:54:14.980 World War II in

00:54:15.920 the same way

00:54:16.360 nobody would ask

00:54:17.280 for a coronavirus,

00:54:18.000 virus, it is

00:54:19.360 true that World War

00:54:20.380 II sort of

00:54:21.380 rebooted

00:54:21.940 civilization.

00:54:23.320 And it did

00:54:24.120 create all these

00:54:25.220 new technologies

00:54:26.080 that we built

00:54:26.920 mostly for

00:54:28.040 military reasons.

00:54:28.980 It gave us

00:54:29.740 nuclear energy.

00:54:31.860 I think it gave

00:54:32.480 us radar,

00:54:34.160 space technology,

00:54:35.580 rockets.

00:54:36.960 So when you

00:54:38.980 reboot civilization

00:54:40.180 and you wipe away

00:54:41.320 all your assumptions

00:54:42.080 in the case of

00:54:43.180 World War II,

00:54:43.760 you destroy half

00:54:44.560 of your buildings,

00:54:45.520 you can start

00:54:46.420 over.

00:54:47.040 And it almost

00:54:47.700 always turns into

00:54:48.640 an entrepreneurial

00:54:49.500 surge because

00:54:51.140 there's just new

00:54:52.000 opportunities and

00:54:52.880 chaos.

00:54:53.820 So the golden age

00:54:54.740 is coming for

00:54:55.560 sure.

00:54:56.640 2021 is your

00:54:58.040 start date for

00:54:58.980 that.

00:55:01.720 That,

00:55:03.020 let me talk

00:55:05.860 about all the

00:55:06.500 bankruptcies.

00:55:08.000 So we're seeing

00:55:08.700 lots of airlines

00:55:09.480 and other

00:55:10.180 companies declaring

00:55:12.240 bankruptcy.

00:55:12.960 The first thing

00:55:13.440 you need to know

00:55:13.920 is that

00:55:14.180 bankruptcy doesn't

00:55:15.120 mean going out

00:55:15.760 of business.

00:55:16.700 It means that

00:55:17.640 they're trying to

00:55:18.360 get some relief

00:55:19.040 for their creditors

00:55:19.920 so they can maybe

00:55:20.900 pay less or whatever

00:55:21.740 and stay in business.

00:55:23.320 So bankruptcy

00:55:23.980 is a way to

00:55:25.720 stay in business

00:55:26.540 not a way to

00:55:27.360 go out of business.

00:55:29.200 That's the first

00:55:29.940 thing.

00:55:30.560 Secondly,

00:55:31.160 there are a number

00:55:31.620 of companies who

00:55:32.560 are saying we're

00:55:33.300 going out of

00:55:33.920 business.

00:55:35.000 So you'll see

00:55:35.640 store owners

00:55:36.620 saying,

00:55:37.080 all right,

00:55:37.380 we're closed

00:55:38.300 for good.

00:55:40.060 But are they?

00:55:41.420 Imagine the

00:55:42.080 coronavirus is over,

00:55:43.140 the landlord

00:55:43.860 has an empty

00:55:44.780 shop,

00:55:45.820 and the person

00:55:47.660 who's there

00:55:48.000 is closed.

00:55:48.700 They just

00:55:49.020 walked away.

00:55:50.600 What does the

00:55:51.320 landlord do?

00:55:53.000 Well, if they're

00:55:53.740 smart,

00:55:54.760 they say the

00:55:56.080 very best

00:55:56.860 tenant I could

00:55:58.620 have is the

00:55:59.880 person who's

00:56:00.420 already designed

00:56:01.180 the space for

00:56:02.220 exactly their

00:56:02.860 business.

00:56:03.520 So I don't

00:56:04.140 have to put in

00:56:04.700 a bunch of

00:56:05.120 improvements and

00:56:06.560 rip this stuff

00:56:07.400 out to make it

00:56:08.180 a different kind

00:56:08.760 of thing so I

00:56:09.360 can rent it for

00:56:09.940 someone else.

00:56:10.360 The best bet

00:56:11.580 for the

00:56:11.880 landlord is

00:56:13.040 to say,

00:56:13.500 okay, I know

00:56:14.260 you didn't pay

00:56:14.840 me for three

00:56:15.340 months, and I

00:56:16.520 know you can't

00:56:17.080 pay me for

00:56:17.500 another three

00:56:18.040 months, and

00:56:19.440 you're still the

00:56:20.020 best bet.

00:56:21.100 Will you start

00:56:22.360 up again?

00:56:23.480 So I think

00:56:24.260 you're going to

00:56:24.660 see that a lot

00:56:25.520 of companies

00:56:26.020 that think they

00:56:26.900 were closed

00:56:27.500 forever because

00:56:29.380 there were so

00:56:29.980 many of them

00:56:30.620 end up being

00:56:32.000 reopened.

00:56:33.220 Let me say

00:56:33.760 that clearer.

00:56:34.740 If you are the

00:56:35.540 only person who

00:56:36.340 goes out of

00:56:36.800 business and the

00:56:37.560 rest of the

00:56:38.040 economy is

00:56:38.620 fine, you

00:56:39.880 got a problem.

00:56:41.700 It's your

00:56:42.080 problem.

00:56:43.000 You failed when

00:56:44.360 everybody else was

00:56:45.020 doing fine.

00:56:46.020 Now you failed in

00:56:46.960 your business, what

00:56:48.160 does the landlord

00:56:48.780 want to do?

00:56:49.980 Get rid of you.

00:56:51.180 Get somebody in 0.99

00:56:51.940 that business that

00:56:52.600 can succeed so

00:56:53.500 that they can pay

00:56:54.260 the rent.

00:56:55.260 That's not this.

00:56:57.000 This is massive

00:56:58.720 failure that was

00:56:59.680 nobody's fault.

00:57:01.040 If you've got a

00:57:02.160 potential tenant who

00:57:03.900 was just part of a

00:57:04.720 massive failure that

00:57:05.620 was nobody's fault,

00:57:06.540 that's your very

00:57:07.920 best person to

00:57:08.720 bring back as

00:57:09.300 your next tenant.

00:57:10.440 So I think you're

00:57:11.340 going to see a lot

00:57:11.820 of businesses

00:57:12.300 re-invived because

00:57:14.400 everybody will

00:57:15.360 understand that

00:57:16.320 there was nothing

00:57:16.780 wrong with the

00:57:17.320 business.

00:57:18.240 It was just the

00:57:18.900 situation.

00:57:19.880 And as the

00:57:20.300 situation normalizes,

00:57:22.300 so too you would

00:57:23.180 expect that at

00:57:23.920 least the better

00:57:24.440 businesses that

00:57:25.580 should have stayed

00:57:27.080 in business will

00:57:27.740 revive.

00:57:28.840 That's what I

00:57:29.280 think.

00:57:32.080 Yeah, there are a

00:57:32.780 lot of businesses

00:57:33.500 that have never

00:57:34.100 been busier.

00:57:34.760 I tried to go to

00:57:35.620 the bike store,

00:57:36.960 my local bike

00:57:37.780 store, because

00:57:38.320 bicycle repair and

00:57:39.760 sales stores are

00:57:40.500 open because they're

00:57:42.020 actually transportation,

00:57:43.720 critical infrastructure.

00:57:45.200 But you can't even

00:57:46.140 get in a bike store

00:57:47.200 in my town.

00:57:48.500 You have to wait on

00:57:49.380 the sidewalk, and I

00:57:51.060 waited so long I just

00:57:52.080 gave up.

00:57:52.940 So you can't even

00:57:54.680 get in the bike store.

00:57:56.220 So they're doing

00:57:57.000 okay.

00:57:57.280 Will 21 be the

00:58:04.760 golden age if

00:58:05.700 Trump loses?

00:58:08.040 In a different

00:58:08.840 way.

00:58:09.260 I mean, the

00:58:09.620 entrepreneurs won't

00:58:11.040 be affected by

00:58:12.140 Trump losing so

00:58:13.260 much.

00:58:14.040 So probably

00:58:14.700 entrepreneurially, yes.

00:58:16.500 Politically, no.

00:58:19.440 Why are dog parks

00:58:20.780 closed?

00:58:21.880 Well, I think same

00:58:22.720 reason as I keep

00:58:24.280 seeing this always

00:58:25.780 bothers me.

00:58:26.620 You know, Fox

00:58:27.480 News sometimes

00:58:28.180 likes to take the

00:58:29.500 easy-sounding

00:58:32.120 political statement.

00:58:33.820 So I saw last

00:58:34.680 night that they

00:58:35.180 were questioning

00:58:35.780 why you could do

00:58:37.460 some things, but

00:58:38.340 you couldn't play

00:58:39.000 tennis.

00:58:40.520 Do you not

00:58:41.380 understand why you

00:58:42.340 can't play tennis

00:58:43.200 during a coronavirus

00:58:44.200 thing?

00:58:45.040 Is there anybody

00:58:45.640 who's confused

00:58:47.580 why tennis, where

00:58:49.000 you're standing

00:58:49.460 pretty far apart,

00:58:51.380 do you not

00:58:51.900 understand why

00:58:53.160 that would be

00:58:53.980 banned?

00:58:54.320 because the

00:58:55.980 whole point of

00:58:56.520 tennis is you're

00:58:57.200 continually touching

00:58:58.120 the tennis ball that

00:58:59.620 the other guy just

00:59:00.320 had in his hand.

00:59:01.720 That's like the

00:59:02.220 whole game is

00:59:02.860 holding a ball in

00:59:03.560 your hand that the

00:59:04.140 other guy just had

00:59:04.840 in his hand.

00:59:05.980 You might as well

00:59:06.820 make out with your

00:59:07.980 tennis partner because

00:59:09.680 I mean, that's about

00:59:11.220 as much exposure as

00:59:12.340 you could possibly

00:59:13.080 give to two people.

00:59:14.540 You might as well

00:59:15.120 just like take your

00:59:16.360 clothes off and

00:59:16.980 snuggle if you're

00:59:18.260 going to play tennis

00:59:18.900 because you're sweating,

00:59:20.660 you're breathing on

00:59:21.540 the ball, and then

00:59:22.600 you're handing it to

00:59:23.200 the other guy.

00:59:24.360 It couldn't be a

00:59:26.620 more perfect setting

00:59:27.560 for spreading a

00:59:28.380 virus.

00:59:30.960 Well, even if you

00:59:31.860 wore gloves, I

00:59:33.220 suppose that might

00:59:34.280 be able to help,

00:59:35.140 I suppose.

00:59:36.060 But still, you

00:59:36.780 know, the virus

00:59:37.280 would be flying off

00:59:38.180 the ball and it's

00:59:39.380 airborne, right?

00:59:40.260 Every time you

00:59:40.860 hit the ball, in

00:59:42.180 theory, every time

00:59:42.900 you served and you

00:59:44.320 hit the ball, the

00:59:46.060 air droplets would

00:59:47.140 come off the ball

00:59:47.860 and into your 0.97

00:59:48.780 face.

00:59:49.620 So, I don't

00:59:51.600 think there's a

00:59:52.440 glove solution.

00:59:55.180 So, when I watch

00:59:55.860 Fox News and they

00:59:56.800 say, these crazy

00:59:58.360 rules that don't

00:59:59.380 make any sense, why

01:00:00.760 can you take a walk

01:00:01.660 in the park or

01:00:02.940 whatever, but you

01:00:03.920 can't play tennis?

01:00:04.820 Well, there's a

01:00:05.460 reason.

01:00:06.900 There's a reason.

01:00:07.720 Here's the other

01:00:08.140 one.

01:00:08.860 You can walk on the

01:00:09.840 beach, but you

01:00:10.620 can't sit on the

01:00:11.500 beach.

01:00:12.700 And Fox News

01:00:13.540 acts like they

01:00:14.180 don't understand

01:00:14.880 why that would be

01:00:16.340 different.

01:00:17.160 Let me explain it

01:00:17.960 to you.

01:00:18.220 If you're walking

01:00:19.440 on the beach, you

01:00:20.440 almost certainly

01:00:21.300 are keeping social

01:00:22.220 distance, except

01:00:23.460 for the person

01:00:24.000 you're with, who

01:00:24.660 probably came from

01:00:25.320 your house.

01:00:26.900 If you sit on

01:00:27.940 the beach, imagine

01:00:29.640 a bunch of

01:00:30.160 teenagers sitting

01:00:31.000 on the beach.

01:00:32.260 Are they going

01:00:32.720 to socially

01:00:33.140 distance?

01:00:34.680 No.

01:00:35.540 No, they're

01:00:36.180 not.

01:00:36.880 So, it's

01:00:37.420 perfectly reasonable

01:00:38.380 to assume that if

01:00:39.560 you let people sit

01:00:40.440 on the beach, they're

01:00:41.420 not going to be so

01:00:42.200 good.

01:00:43.260 But if you let

01:00:43.800 them walk, just

01:00:44.620 the natural way

01:00:45.340 people react, they're

01:00:46.520 not going to walk

01:00:47.000 right next to other

01:00:47.740 people, so they

01:00:48.840 get the social

01:00:49.360 distance.

01:00:50.140 Now, is that

01:00:50.640 smart or not

01:00:52.240 smart?

01:00:52.660 I don't know.

01:00:53.720 I don't know.

01:00:54.160 But it's not

01:00:54.580 crazy.

01:00:55.920 To act like that's

01:00:57.300 crazy, it just

01:00:58.860 bothers me. 0.82

01:01:00.040 It's like, you

01:01:00.580 might think that

01:01:01.740 doesn't make that

01:01:02.840 much difference, and

01:01:04.140 you could argue that

01:01:05.000 freedom should allow

01:01:06.060 you to be on the

01:01:06.800 beach anyway.

01:01:07.540 That would be a

01:01:08.340 good argument.

01:01:09.640 A good argument

01:01:10.800 would be, just let

01:01:12.620 people do whatever

01:01:13.280 they want, and we'll

01:01:14.060 work it out.

01:01:14.600 You could agree

01:01:16.080 with that or

01:01:16.560 disagree with it.

01:01:17.660 That's a good

01:01:18.120 argument.

01:01:19.260 Let freedom be

01:01:20.260 free.

01:01:21.080 Let them collect

01:01:22.120 on the beach any

01:01:22.760 way they want.

01:01:25.000 I'm not sure I

01:01:25.860 would even disagree

01:01:26.480 with that argument,

01:01:27.280 but I'm only

01:01:28.060 calling out the

01:01:29.660 fact that there's

01:01:30.380 totally a

01:01:31.180 difference between

01:01:32.540 walking, which is

01:01:34.400 probably entirely

01:01:35.320 safe, and

01:01:36.720 collecting in

01:01:37.440 groups, no

01:01:38.260 matter where

01:01:38.660 you're collecting

01:01:39.140 on a group,

01:01:40.440 beach or

01:01:41.020 otherwise.

01:01:41.700 We don't know

01:01:42.380 that to be

01:01:42.860 true.

01:01:43.940 I've got a

01:01:44.320 feeling that

01:01:44.720 sitting on the

01:01:45.200 beach outdoors

01:01:46.060 is about as

01:01:46.800 much risk as

01:01:47.600 nothing, but

01:01:50.100 it's not crazy

01:01:51.620 to imagine there

01:01:52.360 might be some

01:01:52.840 there.

01:01:53.860 All right.

01:01:57.160 They're told they

01:01:57.940 can sit on sand

01:01:58.860 but not chairs.

01:02:00.360 I don't know

01:02:01.040 about that.

01:02:03.280 Yeah, I'm

01:02:04.560 definitely of the

01:02:05.580 camp that you

01:02:07.500 need to make

01:02:08.020 your own

01:02:08.340 decisions about

01:02:09.240 which of these

01:02:10.220 rules to

01:02:10.960 obey.

01:02:12.520 I do think

01:02:13.300 that the

01:02:13.620 wearing masks

01:02:15.260 in businesses

01:02:16.100 that require

01:02:16.760 them, I feel

01:02:17.820 like that's

01:02:18.440 one you should

01:02:19.400 take seriously.

01:02:21.360 If not for

01:02:22.220 yourself, for

01:02:23.840 your fellow

01:02:24.320 citizens.

01:02:25.420 There are other

01:02:25.900 things.

01:02:26.700 I saw today

01:02:27.260 that teenagers

01:02:28.760 who have

01:02:29.500 boyfriends and

01:02:30.100 girlfriends, they're 1.00

01:02:31.300 not being allowed

01:02:31.940 to see them, so

01:02:33.800 they're doing

01:02:34.140 weird Zoom

01:02:35.340 meetings and

01:02:36.080 they see each

01:02:37.240 other six feet

01:02:37.860 away and stuff.

01:02:38.380 here's a

01:02:40.060 question I

01:02:40.480 want to ask

01:02:40.880 you.

01:02:41.680 Do any of

01:02:42.280 you have

01:02:42.580 teenagers in

01:02:43.340 your house?

01:02:45.100 I want to ask

01:02:46.040 this question.

01:02:47.160 How many of

01:02:47.760 you have a

01:02:48.240 teenager in

01:02:48.960 the house who

01:02:50.740 is not hanging

01:02:52.360 around with

01:02:52.980 friends and

01:02:53.520 boyfriends and

01:02:54.140 girlfriends?

01:02:55.460 Aren't all of

01:02:56.280 your teenagers

01:02:56.840 finding a way to

01:02:58.020 hang out with

01:03:00.260 other teenagers?

01:03:02.600 Just wait a

01:03:03.480 second and see

01:03:03.960 your comments.

01:03:04.880 My assumption

01:03:06.120 is that the

01:03:08.260 amount of

01:03:09.000 cheating on

01:03:09.660 these guidelines

01:03:10.300 is massive

01:03:11.060 and that people

01:03:12.440 are just sort of

01:03:13.000 doing it on the

01:03:13.560 down low.

01:03:14.860 That's my

01:03:15.300 assumption.

01:03:18.120 All right.

01:03:20.840 Elon mask

01:03:22.060 instead of

01:03:22.920 Elon Musk.

01:03:25.340 Shouldn't

01:03:25.940 Elon Musk make

01:03:26.920 us a mask?

01:03:28.140 I'll tell you

01:03:28.520 here's the mask

01:03:29.240 I want.

01:03:29.840 I want the

01:03:30.320 mask that has

01:03:31.560 a built-in

01:03:32.160 far UV light

01:03:33.660 so that it's

01:03:35.200 killing whatever

01:03:36.100 is behind my 1.00

01:03:36.860 mask all the

01:03:37.620 time.

01:03:38.900 It's just on.

01:03:39.940 It's just a little

01:03:40.480 UV light shooting

01:03:41.640 at my lips.

01:03:42.380 It's just killing

01:03:42.880 anything that gets

01:03:43.480 near.

01:03:44.300 Why can't I have

01:03:44.960 that?

01:03:45.500 Why can't I have

01:03:46.260 the Tesla of

01:03:48.200 masks?

01:03:50.040 All right.

01:03:50.800 That's all for now.

01:03:51.620 I will talk to you

01:03:52.320 later.

01:03:53.060 Later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 12, 2020

Episode 970 Scott Adams： ObamaGate, COVID19 Fake News, Fake Polls and Fun

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Summary

Transcript