Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 19, 2020


Episode 983 Scott Adams： Talking About Hydroxychloroquine and Then I Teach You How to Get Lucky


Episode Stats


Length

35 minutes

Words per minute

154.68837

Word count

5,510

Sentence count

388

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

It's time for the evening edition of No Coffee with Scott Adams, where Scott Adams talks about the latest news involving President Trump and the controversial hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin use by the president, and the media's reaction to it.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.
00:00:09.340 It's time for the evening edition called No Coffee with Scott Adams because it's much too late for that.
00:00:16.060 But it's not too late to have fun with the news.
00:00:21.880 Thank you for this gift, President Trump, for making a Monday that could have been boring.
00:00:28.600 It's not boring at all.
00:00:31.240 Have I told you before that there's something about the Trump family, I think they all have it.
00:00:36.420 It's sort of like some gene that they inherited, that they can't be uninteresting.
00:00:42.640 Have you noticed that?
00:00:43.800 It doesn't matter who it is.
00:00:46.500 It doesn't matter if it's Ivanka or Don Jr. or the president.
00:00:52.100 They don't know how to leave a room without making you remember something that makes your head shake.
00:00:58.220 It's like, well, I'm going to remember that for a while.
00:01:01.460 And of course, the president gave us quite the gift today by casually mentioning that he's been using hydroxychloroquine and I think azithromycin and zinc as well.
00:01:16.500 Now, how do you think the media dealt with this new information?
00:01:24.400 Now, you have to know he was laughing about it.
00:01:27.360 You have to know Trump thought it was funny because it was.
00:01:31.860 Here's what's funny about it.
00:01:34.380 Would you not agree with the following statement that the president has been just viciously criticized for having brought up these pills in the first place and that since then there's been evidence of them not working or maybe being dangerous.
00:01:49.900 And so it's just all worse and worse and worse.
00:01:52.680 So just when you think Trump has decided to, you know, sort of surrender the point, and I really thought he'd surrendered it.
00:02:04.680 I thought he was just going to say, well, you know, it seemed like a good idea at the time.
00:02:10.280 Maybe we know more now.
00:02:12.040 He hasn't really stood out as being a winning strategy yet.
00:02:15.840 But, you know, so I kind of thought he was going to let it go.
00:02:20.840 But this isn't really the president who lets things go, is it?
00:02:25.820 You know, one of the reasons that, one of the reasons his supporters, I think, appreciate him is that he doesn't let anything go.
00:02:34.940 You know, he's going to be still trying to build that wall, you know, when he's 110 and out of office.
00:02:40.440 Like, I'm still going to build that wall.
00:02:42.000 I'm going to get that wall built.
00:02:43.200 So there's something about his tenacity that you just have to like, even if you don't like what he's trying to do.
00:02:50.640 And this is just the perfect example.
00:02:53.160 It's like, he's just not going to let this go.
00:02:56.480 So here's what's so freaking funny about it.
00:03:00.180 It's funny because don't you assume that the White House doctors, you know, I don't know if it's a staff.
00:03:07.980 You know, there's one White House doctor, physician, but there's a whole staff, probably.
00:03:14.140 And don't you think that it's assumed that whoever is treating the president of the United States medically would be the cream of the crop?
00:03:24.520 Wouldn't you just assume?
00:03:26.260 Would be sort of the standard for good care.
00:03:29.960 Sort of the person you might even look to as a role model of how to do it right.
00:03:38.220 And the president gets the White House physician to give him the okay.
00:03:44.500 I mean, I think he said he wanted it, but he gave him the okay to take this drug, which automatically makes him right.
00:03:53.720 Now, I'm not saying that people will admit he's right.
00:03:56.660 But I'm sorry, if you get the White House doctor to agree with you, you're right.
00:04:06.720 You know, they're never going to give it to him.
00:04:09.680 They'll never give him the win.
00:04:12.740 But I'm here to tell you, he won.
00:04:16.760 He'll never get the trophy.
00:04:19.280 You know, the scoreboard will not reflect that.
00:04:22.140 But he won.
00:04:23.000 Now, let me explain what I mean by that, because the news is never going to give it to him, and this is how they're going to do it.
00:04:30.080 This question of the hydroxychloroquine is really four different types of decisions.
00:04:35.860 There's a scientific decision, a medical patient, and then a leadership decision.
00:04:41.280 And they've got different, you know, different variables, and you would look at them in different ways for different reasons.
00:04:47.000 So let me go through these.
00:04:48.100 The scientific view, which is what CNN and the critics will focus on, is going to say,
00:04:54.620 do we have controlled studies that show that it's safe enough and that it works?
00:04:59.720 And the answer is no.
00:05:01.440 No, we don't.
00:05:02.560 So if the only thing that mattered was the scientific study, you'd say, no, we don't have those studies.
00:05:09.820 That's it.
00:05:10.500 If that's the only question, if it's the only dimension you're looking at, no.
00:05:16.440 It does not have the required scientific backing, period.
00:05:22.540 That's like end of the statement.
00:05:24.820 There is not, absolutely not, scientific backing of the type that you would want.
00:05:33.580 You know, the gold standard controlled experiments.
00:05:35.920 It doesn't exist.
00:05:37.560 Fair enough.
00:05:39.140 True statement.
00:05:39.980 But the medical decision could be a little different.
00:05:44.940 A doctor is allowed to say, yeah, we don't have a controlled study for this way I'm thinking of using it,
00:05:52.260 but I'm going to use my medical judgment, and I'm going to say, I've got a hunch that this could work.
00:05:58.560 I don't know what else could work.
00:06:00.320 I don't have a better idea.
00:06:02.160 It feels like the logic makes sense, and I think that the risk is very small.
00:06:06.940 So I'll give it a chance.
00:06:09.940 It's called off-label use.
00:06:11.780 That's not the same as this.
00:06:13.900 The scientific view is you don't know anything.
00:06:16.660 The medical view, sometimes, depends on the situation, might be, yeah, it's worth a try.
00:06:22.040 Which is also different from the patient's choice.
00:06:26.500 Because the patient has yet another bunch of information, and that information is what works for you.
00:06:33.420 What are your biases?
00:06:34.540 What are you afraid of?
00:06:35.800 What are your priorities?
00:06:37.140 Let me give you an example.
00:06:38.080 When I famously had my voice problems, where I couldn't speak for several years, the medical community, the scientists, the doctors, said,
00:06:49.320 here's what you need to do, Scott.
00:06:50.860 Take a big needle and stick it through the front of your neck and give yourself, not yourself, but let the doctor give you a shot that goes into the back of your neck.
00:07:00.100 Basically, it goes through the middle of the throat, into your, if they can find it, because they're kind of guessing a little bit.
00:07:07.120 But if they can find it, they'll jab that needle into your vocal cords, and they'll put a little Botox in there, and they'll freeze that thing. 0.98
00:07:16.320 And you might be able to make some sounds that sound like talking.
00:07:19.140 Now, we'll have to do it probably every several weeks, and you'll have to, once again, have a needle through the front of your throat while you're awake,
00:07:27.900 and we'll be manipulating it in there, and we're not sure we'll get it every time.
00:07:33.020 Sometimes we'll miss, so there'll be several months where it won't work, and it'll be a painful, excruciating, traumatic experience every time.
00:07:42.280 But that's our advice.
00:07:45.160 That's our advice.
00:07:47.640 What did I do?
00:07:49.860 I said, no, thank you.
00:07:52.240 And I searched for a year for another excuse, or another excuse.
00:07:57.100 What Freudian slip was that?
00:07:59.680 No, I searched for a year for another solution.
00:08:03.040 Ended up being a surgical solution, and you can hear me speak.
00:08:07.600 So, as a patient, I overruled the science and the medical community, and that worked out.
00:08:15.800 I'm not suggesting that always works out.
00:08:17.940 I'm just saying that sometimes the patient has extra variables.
00:08:24.240 There's a risk they're willing to take.
00:08:26.600 There's a risk they're not willing to take, and sometimes it's personal.
00:08:30.580 You know, if you're the one in the chair with the needle going through your neck, you get to decide.
00:08:35.960 Right?
00:08:36.440 It's not all about the math if you've got a needle in your neck.
00:08:41.040 So I'm just saying that these are different decisions and different things.
00:08:43.900 Now, the leadership decision is the risk management decision.
00:08:47.320 That's the one where you say, you know, we really don't know.
00:08:51.480 We just don't know.
00:08:53.120 We don't know quite how dangerous it would be for coronavirus patients.
00:08:57.540 We don't know quite if it works.
00:09:00.280 But a leader still has to make a decision.
00:09:03.820 And remember, doing nothing is a decision.
00:09:07.580 The leader doesn't get to say, I'll take a bye on this, let me just take a pass.
00:09:13.120 You don't get to do that.
00:09:15.020 In an emergency, a decision not to do something is an active decision.
00:09:19.960 So the leader can't say, well, show me the controlled studies.
00:09:25.740 They don't exist.
00:09:27.860 The leader can ask the doctors, hey, what would you do?
00:09:32.640 25% of them would say, according to a study I just saw, 25% of them would say, yeah, I'd try it.
00:09:41.900 I'd try it.
00:09:44.200 How about an individual?
00:09:45.720 Well, if you're the president of the United States and maybe you're, you know, having you not incapacitated means more, could be even more important.
00:09:58.300 Well, maybe depending on your situation, you talk to your doctor, it just depends, right?
00:10:02.460 For some people it makes sense.
00:10:04.420 Let's say if you're, let's say you're 25 years old and you're not, you're not around anybody who's likely to give it to you anyway.
00:10:14.900 And if you got it, it probably wouldn't kill you.
00:10:17.400 Would you take it?
00:10:18.580 Well, depends, but probably not.
00:10:21.440 Maybe if you were on the front lines, you might, but probably not.
00:10:24.980 But how about if you're a leader and you're just trying to help make risk management decisions with your experts on behalf of the country?
00:10:33.820 If you're making a risk management decision, the only way you can do it, if that makes sense, is to say, all right, what are the odds if I go this way?
00:10:46.980 What are the odds if I go this way?
00:10:49.180 So let's say it would be a decision tree.
00:10:52.000 Now, if no one has shown you the decision tree, they cannot tell you in any rational way that the president made a bad decision by simply talking about it and talking about it as a risk management decision.
00:11:08.260 Unless somebody's done the math where they've said, all right, if you take the hydroxychloroquine, we don't know if it would work, but let's say there's a 10% chance it might help you.
00:11:20.260 You know, is that 10% worth the, I don't know, is it one out of 100,000 who might die from it?
00:11:27.760 But those people are only taking it long term.
00:11:30.660 The number of people are going to die from it from two weeks.
00:11:33.460 We don't know because we don't have the studies, but doctors and common sense tells you it's probably close to zero.
00:11:41.860 So would you take a 10% slight advantage?
00:11:47.640 And again, that would be an assumption, not a fact.
00:11:49.680 A 10% slight advantage that if you got it, you'd already have the hydroxy and the zinc, that's the active part.
00:11:58.800 You'd already have it in your body, so you'd get a sort of a jump on it, and maybe you'd recover faster.
00:12:05.520 Would that potentially 10% chance and only a 10% chance if you get it, because otherwise it doesn't matter at all.
00:12:16.060 And there was a 99% chance you were just going to get better anyway.
00:12:19.680 Now, if you're Trump, you're a certain age, so he doesn't have a 99% chance of getting better, but maybe a 97% chance.
00:12:28.340 So let's say Trump had a 3% chance of dying if he got it.
00:12:33.940 Let's say a 50% chance of getting it.
00:12:36.900 That would be on the high end, but he's around a lot of people.
00:12:41.040 I think 50% is pretty reasonable, actually, in his case.
00:12:44.280 So 50% chance you'd get it.
00:12:47.880 Anyway, I don't have to do the math.
00:12:49.720 My point is, if no one else has done the math either, no one can tell you this is the wrong decision.
00:12:56.280 If they do the math, and they plug in their numbers, and they show it to you, you can multiply it yourself and say,
00:13:03.540 okay, oh yeah, they multiplied this correctly.
00:13:06.340 That's a rational decision right there.
00:13:08.980 Now you could say, oh, but they made an assumption I wouldn't make.
00:13:13.340 So let's say you assumed there's at least a 10% chance hydroxychloroquine works, but let's say somebody else assumed it was a 1% chance.
00:13:23.360 You're both just guessing.
00:13:25.840 Those are just guesses.
00:13:28.000 So, you know, you could run it under all those scenarios and see if there's any scenario in which it isn't still better to take a chance.
00:13:37.640 It might be.
00:13:38.960 I don't know.
00:13:39.500 Now, Trump has said he's gotten anecdotal observational reports and letters from people who said they think it works.
00:13:46.440 I'm very skeptical of those because, you know, 99% of people get better anyway.
00:13:53.720 So I just don't know that we really have anything.
00:13:57.920 But have you noticed what CNN is doing to try to make the president look dumb?
00:14:07.560 But, of course, what they're really doing is making their own audience look dumb.
00:14:13.900 So here's what they're doing.
00:14:17.260 They've decided to highlight a study on their page, CNN.com, in which hydroxychloroquine without zinc was studied.
00:14:26.060 And it didn't help, and I think maybe it was a little dangerous or something.
00:14:29.100 Now, given that the entire hypothesis is that the point of the hydroxychloroquine is simply to help deliver the zinc, the zinc being actually the part that matters,
00:14:40.980 if you test it without the part that matters, and then you run it on CNN as proof that the president is making a bad decision,
00:14:50.040 you're just lying.
00:14:53.080 You're just lying.
00:14:54.180 Because they're saying, essentially, the president is making a bad decision because an entirely different drug,
00:15:01.980 because you take the zinc out, that's the active part of the combo,
00:15:06.180 an entirely different drug was tested and it didn't work.
00:15:09.860 That's what CNN is telling their audience.
00:15:12.200 A different drug was tested and it didn't work, therefore the president's wrong about this other drug.
00:15:17.040 They're selling that to their audience.
00:15:21.120 I'll bet if you could look all day on the CNN comments, I don't know if they have comments,
00:15:25.520 you wouldn't find anybody who reads CNN who noticed that a sleight of hand to take the zinc out.
00:15:32.100 Now, the other trick they do, and you know this one, right?
00:15:36.360 There's some study where they gave it only to critically ill people.
00:15:41.200 Again, nobody ever suggested that was the smart best use of it.
00:15:46.320 It was always assumed it was an early symptom drug.
00:15:51.440 So if it was tested on people who are likely going to die anyway,
00:15:54.620 they're in the end stage, I'm not sure you've tested anything.
00:16:00.540 So those are the two tricks that the Trump critics are using.
00:16:04.960 They look at the wrong studies and act like it's the right studies
00:16:09.080 and hope you can't tell the difference.
00:16:11.540 Now, maybe they believe that those are studies, I don't know.
00:16:13.840 You know, these days you can't tell, are they just being stupid?
00:16:17.760 Or do they actually believe what they're saying?
00:16:19.740 It's hard to know.
00:16:21.560 So, and they'll also talk about how the poor lupus patients will lose their supply
00:16:26.800 if everybody starts hoarding them.
00:16:28.720 They'll talk about how you shouldn't take these drugs, you know,
00:16:32.020 unless you're under a doctor's care.
00:16:33.720 Now, how many of you were going to take a prescription drug without a doctor's advice?
00:16:39.900 And if you did, and it didn't go well, well, maybe that's sort of on you.
00:16:46.820 If you're taking a prescription drug without a doctor's advice, you know,
00:16:51.420 I can see where that would be a problem,
00:16:53.340 but I don't feel it would be a problem for me because I don't think I'd do it.
00:16:57.820 I also saw, you know, people piling on, you know, on social media
00:17:04.920 to, you know, support the criticism of the president,
00:17:08.220 and one doctor or alleged doctor on Twitter said that she knows a lot of doctors
00:17:13.840 and she's never met one who takes hydroxychloroquine prophylactically.
00:17:20.000 So she knows a lot of doctors and not one of them are doing that.
00:17:24.060 to which I say, I don't know a lot of doctors,
00:17:29.320 but even I know doctors who are taking hydroxychloroquine.
00:17:34.160 I know them, you know, they've told me personally.
00:17:39.320 So, I don't know, is this even a real doctor who's making this comment
00:17:44.480 or is it just a troll? I can't tell.
00:17:46.180 Well, so that's the, and then, of course, the CNN will never mention
00:17:54.580 that a quarter of doctors think it's a good idea.
00:17:58.880 Can you imagine having an article and not mentioning
00:18:01.580 that a quarter of doctors think it's a good idea?
00:18:04.580 That doesn't mean it's a good idea.
00:18:06.720 But imagine if you were doing a survey of doctors
00:18:09.440 and you knew that it was, you know, hasn't passed clinical trials for this use,
00:18:14.780 could be dangerous in the extreme,
00:18:18.420 meaning that you could have some bad outcomes for some number of people.
00:18:23.620 If you're a doctor and somebody asks you,
00:18:26.320 under these conditions, would you prescribe it prophylactically
00:18:29.920 before somebody has it?
00:18:31.920 Don't you think the doctors are going to be a little biased on that question?
00:18:37.760 Meaning that if they're answering a poll,
00:18:40.900 I think they're going to more likely say,
00:18:43.040 no, it's not proven.
00:18:45.240 Because that's the right answer, right?
00:18:47.080 Sometimes you know what answer the teacher is looking for.
00:18:50.240 Okay, is this a trick question?
00:18:52.560 Would I give somebody an unproven drug?
00:18:56.080 No, I wouldn't.
00:18:57.700 Because that just feels like the right answer, right?
00:18:59.760 Whether you're a doctor or not.
00:19:01.100 Not unproven drug?
00:19:03.680 Don't need to hear anymore.
00:19:05.560 Wouldn't give that to anybody.
00:19:07.680 But if they were actually going to serve on the front line themselves,
00:19:12.320 would they make the same decision about treating themselves
00:19:16.400 as they would answer a poll?
00:19:19.240 Because I feel like the poll answer is sort of telling the pollster
00:19:22.500 what they want to hear a little bit.
00:19:24.220 I just worry that there's some bias built in there.
00:19:27.420 All right.
00:19:27.640 So I will say again that every day that goes by
00:19:35.060 that we don't hear somebody say,
00:19:37.860 oh my God, we've proven it,
00:19:39.840 the hydroxychloroquine with the zinc makes a big difference.
00:19:43.560 Every day that goes by, there's less chance it does.
00:19:46.600 Because if it made a big difference,
00:19:49.560 I think we'd notice by now, right?
00:19:53.440 There must be enough people using it around
00:19:56.460 that we'd have a pretty good idea.
00:19:59.240 So the fact that it's still a little murky,
00:20:01.900 like you feel like some people are saying it's working,
00:20:04.380 but their studies are not quite studies,
00:20:07.440 and then the people who say it's not working,
00:20:09.500 they're not really even looking at the right thing.
00:20:11.300 So it's just all this big gray area.
00:20:14.200 But the longer it goes,
00:20:16.100 I started at around 60% chance
00:20:19.640 that the hydroxychloroquine would make
00:20:21.720 some kind of important difference,
00:20:23.760 back in the earliest days,
00:20:25.960 based entirely on some early studies that looked positive.
00:20:29.600 But they weren't really dependable kinds of studies, right?
00:20:32.720 As time went by,
00:20:35.600 using my rule that the longer you go,
00:20:38.820 the more likely you would have noticed if it worked.
00:20:42.840 Surely there have been studies by now.
00:20:45.900 And so I would say,
00:20:48.000 my last number was 40% chance it makes a difference.
00:20:52.120 I might lower that a little bit,
00:20:54.040 because as time goes by,
00:20:55.540 you have to lower that estimate.
00:20:57.320 I'd be down to maybe 30%.
00:20:59.320 But a 30% chance it makes some difference
00:21:03.260 is still a good risk management decision.
00:21:07.020 If you think it's not,
00:21:09.420 show me the math.
00:21:11.280 Easy enough.
00:21:12.300 You could change my mind
00:21:13.920 just by showing me the decision tree
00:21:16.420 and multiply the odds of the various things happening.
00:21:20.480 Just show it to me.
00:21:21.840 It's a simple calculation.
00:21:24.060 You could change my mind in a minute.
00:21:26.040 It's one page.
00:21:27.500 These are the odds.
00:21:28.320 But which one is bigger?
00:21:30.820 I'll take the one that's the better odds.
00:21:32.620 Thank you.
00:21:35.020 All right.
00:21:36.400 I'm going to teach you now
00:21:37.780 a micro lesson.
00:21:39.460 Something you didn't know you needed,
00:21:41.200 but man, do you need it.
00:21:43.020 It's a lesson on how to get lucky.
00:21:45.880 No, not that way.
00:21:47.940 Get your mind out of the gutter.
00:21:49.400 I mean how to have more luck in your life,
00:21:51.320 just in general.
00:21:52.900 Do you think that you can cause luck
00:21:54.780 to happen in your life?
00:21:56.000 The answer is no, not luck luck.
00:22:00.700 But you can manipulate your experience of luck
00:22:05.960 in the ways I'm going to tell you.
00:22:08.500 And let me give you a specific example.
00:22:13.800 There was a Dr. Richard Wiseman
00:22:17.180 who once studied luck,
00:22:18.240 and I think I've told you in prior times,
00:22:21.020 he found out that nobody is actually lucky.
00:22:23.920 If you actually control the experiment,
00:22:26.100 nobody can guess coin flips
00:22:28.280 or anything like that.
00:22:30.220 But he did find that people
00:22:31.880 who had a positive attitude
00:22:33.580 and expected luck
00:22:36.380 had a wider field of vision.
00:22:38.760 In other words,
00:22:39.840 they simply noticed opportunities
00:22:42.280 that other people didn't notice.
00:22:45.060 So there is something about
00:22:46.340 expecting luck to happen
00:22:48.500 that can tune your brain
00:22:50.800 to notice things
00:22:52.520 that give you the experience
00:22:54.360 of being luck.
00:22:55.720 Now, there wasn't any actual luck
00:22:57.900 in the story.
00:22:59.140 You just noticed things
00:23:00.240 that you weren't noticing before.
00:23:01.740 So it's more like skill,
00:23:03.400 but the way it will feel to you
00:23:04.840 is like luck.
00:23:05.580 Because you'll think,
00:23:06.980 oh, I just noticed this thing
00:23:09.260 and that's exactly what I needed
00:23:10.700 exactly when I wanted it.
00:23:13.360 So the experience will feel like luck
00:23:15.480 if you tune your brain
00:23:17.240 to just notice more opportunities.
00:23:19.440 The other thing that you can do for luck
00:23:21.960 is go where the energy is.
00:23:26.000 When I graduated from college
00:23:28.120 in my small upstate New York town,
00:23:31.720 so I went to college
00:23:32.740 just a short drive
00:23:33.820 from where I grew up,
00:23:35.580 and it was a very small town.
00:23:37.440 There were maybe 2,000 people in the town.
00:23:40.000 Not much there to keep me there.
00:23:43.360 And so as soon as I graduated,
00:23:45.000 I traded my car
00:23:46.000 for a one-way ticket to California.
00:23:48.520 And my thinking was this.
00:23:50.480 There aren't many times
00:23:51.780 when you can just start from scratch.
00:23:54.860 And getting out of college
00:23:56.300 was one of those times.
00:23:57.480 I didn't have any special ties to anything.
00:24:00.320 So I said,
00:24:01.360 where can I be the luckiest?
00:24:03.800 And so I went
00:24:05.740 where there was most energy,
00:24:08.140 the most action.
00:24:09.160 So I went to the Bay Area
00:24:10.360 because it was sort of a happening,
00:24:12.100 growing, active place.
00:24:14.480 But then I went to the second filter.
00:24:16.660 I said,
00:24:18.100 within the Bay Area,
00:24:19.180 what is the most happening,
00:24:21.180 energetic,
00:24:22.080 forward-looking business
00:24:24.320 that somebody like me
00:24:26.360 could get a job at?
00:24:27.260 Now, I had a degree in economics,
00:24:28.620 so I was looking for
00:24:30.600 the most forward-looking bank,
00:24:32.660 which I found.
00:24:34.380 So I found the highest energy industry
00:24:37.560 that I could get into
00:24:38.600 in the highest energy place.
00:24:41.640 But I didn't say to myself,
00:24:43.060 I have this specific thing
00:24:44.480 that's going to happen.
00:24:45.760 I said,
00:24:46.300 I'm just going to go
00:24:47.040 where there's lots of stuff happening.
00:24:49.120 And then I'll have lots of choices.
00:24:51.320 I've had, indeed,
00:24:53.500 lots and lots of opportunities
00:24:55.400 to go in different directions.
00:24:57.400 Yeah, it was Crocker National Bank
00:24:58.920 before Wells Fargo swallowed it up.
00:25:03.440 And that's worked out great.
00:25:06.240 So let me show you
00:25:07.320 the tips for luck in general.
00:25:11.400 Follow the energy.
00:25:12.380 So you might have to change jobs.
00:25:13.740 You might have to move.
00:25:15.100 But you can't really fight that.
00:25:18.720 If you're somewhere
00:25:19.820 where nothing's happening,
00:25:21.720 getting lucky
00:25:22.660 where there's no energy
00:25:24.860 is very unlikely.
00:25:26.860 It could happen.
00:25:28.020 That's how luck works.
00:25:29.620 But you want to go
00:25:30.760 where there's just more stuff happening
00:25:32.900 so that there's more chance
00:25:34.140 for things to collide.
00:25:36.940 You want to network.
00:25:38.480 You want to meet as many people.
00:25:39.820 If you are rigorous
00:25:40.540 about meeting people
00:25:42.060 and keeping in touch,
00:25:43.660 then the opportunity
00:25:44.820 for luck to find you
00:25:46.000 happens again.
00:25:47.280 Because what if an opportunity
00:25:48.900 comes to someone
00:25:49.880 in your network?
00:25:51.400 So you've got this big network
00:25:52.820 and it's like a dish
00:25:55.420 that's picking up signals.
00:25:57.100 So now,
00:25:57.680 instead of being so lucky
00:26:00.100 that somebody would have
00:26:01.400 to know you personally
00:26:02.500 if they had a job opportunity,
00:26:04.740 you don't have to be
00:26:05.480 that lucky anymore.
00:26:06.920 Now you can just be lucky enough
00:26:08.440 that anybody you've met
00:26:10.420 hears about this opportunity
00:26:12.760 and says,
00:26:13.720 oh,
00:26:14.300 I know the perfect person
00:26:15.740 for that.
00:26:16.720 So networking
00:26:17.620 expands your filter,
00:26:20.520 your envelope of luck.
00:26:24.480 Likewise,
00:26:25.240 skill stacking,
00:26:25.940 which I talk about
00:26:26.620 all the time.
00:26:27.360 if you put more
00:26:28.820 things together,
00:26:30.800 more skills,
00:26:31.620 and you keep layering
00:26:32.360 on top of each other,
00:26:34.480 the things that you
00:26:35.360 could potentially do
00:26:36.620 just becomes
00:26:38.320 geometrically larger.
00:26:40.040 So imagine
00:26:40.680 that you're skill stacked
00:26:42.300 so that you personally
00:26:43.720 can do lots of different things.
00:26:45.500 You can go in any direction.
00:26:46.780 Boom, boom, boom.
00:26:47.640 There's a thousand things
00:26:48.700 I can do.
00:26:49.460 Then you take that
00:26:50.560 and you move.
00:26:52.500 Then you plop it
00:26:53.380 right in the middle
00:26:54.020 of the most energetic place.
00:26:55.580 And then you start networking.
00:26:58.740 There's no way
00:26:59.640 this doesn't work.
00:27:01.980 This will work every time.
00:27:03.980 This is just math.
00:27:05.440 If you give yourself
00:27:06.520 this many opportunities
00:27:08.020 for luck to find you,
00:27:09.980 luck's going to find you.
00:27:12.020 All right?
00:27:12.600 It might not be today.
00:27:14.860 It might take a week.
00:27:16.280 It might take a year.
00:27:17.700 But if you're making
00:27:18.900 enough variables
00:27:20.220 moving around your world,
00:27:22.180 some of them
00:27:22.860 are going to stick.
00:27:24.780 All right.
00:27:25.080 Experience helps too
00:27:26.300 because the more experience
00:27:27.420 you have,
00:27:27.820 the more opportunities
00:27:29.040 you can notice,
00:27:30.000 the more ways you can go.
00:27:31.960 Really, that's just
00:27:32.780 part of this skill stack.
00:27:36.540 Then there's
00:27:37.420 the math of success.
00:27:38.680 I can tell you
00:27:39.280 that in my life,
00:27:40.620 I actually kept track
00:27:42.660 of how many things
00:27:44.360 I tried just in the
00:27:45.440 economic realm
00:27:46.320 and how many worked.
00:27:48.400 And I did this
00:27:49.500 a number of years ago.
00:27:50.780 I've failed at a number
00:27:51.900 of things since then.
00:27:52.780 But my calculation
00:27:54.920 was that about
00:27:56.140 30 or so things
00:27:57.660 I'd tried,
00:27:59.000 you know,
00:27:59.240 business-wise,
00:28:00.780 including my corporate jobs,
00:28:02.840 you know,
00:28:03.040 different inventions
00:28:04.300 I tried to make,
00:28:05.940 startups I tried to start,
00:28:08.140 et cetera,
00:28:08.880 there were about
00:28:09.360 30 of them.
00:28:12.200 And this is
00:28:13.380 prior to
00:28:14.800 and also after Dilbert.
00:28:16.800 About 30 of them.
00:28:19.080 About three of them
00:28:20.520 worked out well.
00:28:22.420 But those three,
00:28:24.000 of course,
00:28:24.720 paid for all the failures.
00:28:26.960 Now,
00:28:27.140 Dilbert was one of them.
00:28:28.760 You know,
00:28:28.980 I had best-selling books,
00:28:30.960 some licensing.
00:28:32.340 I did a lot of
00:28:33.020 public speaking
00:28:33.940 at high rates,
00:28:35.280 et cetera.
00:28:35.900 So there were
00:28:36.660 a number of things
00:28:37.540 that worked out
00:28:38.880 amazingly well,
00:28:41.100 but they were
00:28:42.340 about one in ten.
00:28:43.100 So could I know
00:28:45.640 in advance
00:28:46.380 which one of those
00:28:48.180 one in ten
00:28:49.000 was going to work out?
00:28:50.260 No.
00:28:50.660 Nobody's that smart.
00:28:52.260 Everybody would like
00:28:52.960 to be that smart.
00:28:54.620 Nobody is.
00:28:56.020 So the only thing
00:28:56.980 you can do
00:28:57.640 if you're trying to get,
00:28:59.400 put yourself in a position
00:29:00.660 for luck
00:29:01.360 to find you
00:29:02.400 is you need to
00:29:04.280 keep trying stuff.
00:29:06.560 But try things
00:29:07.340 that won't kill you
00:29:08.200 and can leave you ahead.
00:29:11.460 So this is the idea
00:29:12.840 of failing forward.
00:29:14.460 So every time
00:29:14.940 you try something,
00:29:16.040 make sure that it
00:29:17.020 builds your talent stack
00:29:18.780 or it increases
00:29:20.320 your network
00:29:21.180 or gives you experience,
00:29:24.500 which is sort of the same,
00:29:26.460 no matter what.
00:29:28.560 Because then,
00:29:29.580 even as you're failing,
00:29:31.160 you know,
00:29:31.380 it's like three failures,
00:29:32.560 four failures,
00:29:33.580 five failures,
00:29:34.420 you get to five failures
00:29:36.140 and learn something
00:29:37.760 from every one
00:29:38.380 of those failures,
00:29:39.480 the odds of the six
00:29:40.860 when failing
00:29:41.400 start dropping dramatically.
00:29:43.640 Because now you know
00:29:44.480 what you're talking about
00:29:45.280 a little bit.
00:29:46.140 Now you've got some skills.
00:29:47.820 Now you've seen
00:29:48.440 a little bit of the world.
00:29:49.700 Now you're a little tougher.
00:29:51.220 Now you've made some friends.
00:29:53.220 All right?
00:29:53.800 So failing
00:29:54.640 is how you succeed.
00:29:57.700 That's just part
00:29:58.320 of the process.
00:30:00.780 Try some long shots.
00:30:02.900 I always tried some things
00:30:04.400 which could pay the rent.
00:30:07.260 You know,
00:30:07.500 so I'd,
00:30:08.080 of course,
00:30:08.480 if there was a promotion
00:30:09.900 at work,
00:30:10.480 I'd try to get it.
00:30:12.000 You know,
00:30:12.260 so I'd be doing
00:30:13.320 all the normal stuff.
00:30:14.560 But I always had
00:30:15.440 some long shots brewing.
00:30:17.220 And I still do that.
00:30:18.140 I've told you that.
00:30:19.060 Part of it is for
00:30:20.140 my general mental health.
00:30:22.740 I like knowing
00:30:23.440 that there's something
00:30:24.200 in my world
00:30:25.080 that even though
00:30:26.500 it's a long shot,
00:30:28.220 man,
00:30:28.680 if this works,
00:30:30.260 if this works,
00:30:31.860 this would be amazing.
00:30:32.820 It could change the world.
00:30:35.080 So it makes you feel good.
00:30:37.040 But every now and then,
00:30:39.160 one comes through.
00:30:41.920 It might be the patent you got,
00:30:43.740 the invention you made,
00:30:44.920 the software you wrote,
00:30:46.740 something like that.
00:30:48.220 My cat Boo
00:30:48.880 is coming in
00:30:49.800 to visit.
00:30:52.020 And then affirmations,
00:30:53.620 I've talked about that.
00:30:54.700 I did a whole periscope on that.
00:30:56.480 You can search for that
00:30:57.340 if you want to find out more.
00:30:58.760 But the part that's meaningful
00:31:00.080 is tuning your mind.
00:31:01.420 That's what I was talking about
00:31:02.740 when you're just more open
00:31:06.620 to the positivity
00:31:08.540 of your own potential.
00:31:11.240 And it doesn't seem to matter
00:31:12.260 if you do affirmations.
00:31:13.800 This is the researcher
00:31:15.920 Dr. Wiseman found.
00:31:17.480 It didn't matter what you did
00:31:19.080 to try to increase
00:31:21.120 your optimism.
00:31:24.040 So the affirmations would work
00:31:26.140 or you could pray
00:31:27.220 or you could just feel good
00:31:28.920 or you could talk to yourself.
00:31:31.560 It didn't matter.
00:31:32.100 You just had to convince yourself
00:31:33.300 that you were a lucky person.
00:31:36.900 And so Boo 0.56
00:31:37.600 has decided
00:31:38.460 to join the periscope.
00:31:43.320 Don't rip off my...
00:31:47.240 All right.
00:31:49.200 And now she can go on her way.
00:31:51.480 All right.
00:31:51.920 That's...
00:31:52.520 Oh, could you hear the purr?
00:31:54.240 Now, tell me if I'm wrong.
00:32:00.040 Since the coronavirus happened
00:32:03.340 and everybody's doing
00:32:05.560 their home video from home,
00:32:09.040 don't you like it
00:32:09.960 when the animals
00:32:10.580 and the kids come in?
00:32:12.660 Is it just me?
00:32:14.900 Because if I'm watching,
00:32:16.820 you know,
00:32:17.200 some famous network person
00:32:18.840 and their kid photobombs them
00:32:20.860 or the dog comes in
00:32:23.340 or the cat or something,
00:32:24.920 I like it better.
00:32:26.320 It just feels,
00:32:27.080 I don't know,
00:32:28.020 just feels more...
00:32:29.240 less stiff.
00:32:31.200 You know,
00:32:31.380 regular TV is going to...
00:32:33.120 Have you noticed that
00:32:34.180 everything got really casual
00:32:36.240 really quickly?
00:32:37.640 So you're watching
00:32:38.380 these people
00:32:38.920 who normally would have
00:32:39.700 suits on
00:32:40.500 and perfect lighting
00:32:41.440 and makeup
00:32:41.920 and they're just there
00:32:43.440 as their normal self
00:32:44.540 wearing their T-shirts,
00:32:46.100 you know,
00:32:46.360 in their basements
00:32:47.060 with the camera on.
00:32:47.900 I like it better.
00:32:50.780 I honestly like it better.
00:32:52.860 So,
00:32:53.360 I don't think we lost much.
00:32:55.840 Anyway,
00:32:56.620 can you give me some feedback?
00:32:58.480 Was the lesson on luck
00:32:59.980 useful to you?
00:33:01.840 I'll wait for a second
00:33:02.880 for the comments
00:33:04.060 to catch up.
00:33:06.560 And,
00:33:07.520 just so you know,
00:33:10.440 Mike Cernovich
00:33:15.620 does a good job
00:33:17.180 of incorporating
00:33:18.000 his environment
00:33:18.840 in everything,
00:33:20.680 you know,
00:33:20.860 everything from kids
00:33:22.480 to just his life.
00:33:24.260 And I think it,
00:33:25.460 I just think
00:33:26.040 it makes it better.
00:33:28.740 Yeah,
00:33:28.920 Dana Preeto
00:33:29.460 was ahead all along,
00:33:30.340 right?
00:33:31.560 All right,
00:33:32.080 so,
00:33:33.280 good,
00:33:36.180 I'm just looking
00:33:36.580 at your comments.
00:33:38.420 Appreciate it.
00:33:40.440 I could sit
00:33:44.480 in a room
00:33:44.900 with a dozen cats.
00:33:46.400 I had an idea
00:33:47.400 to start
00:33:47.900 what I call
00:33:48.380 the Cat Pateria.
00:33:51.220 It was a place
00:33:52.000 where people
00:33:52.480 who couldn't have
00:33:53.160 their own cats,
00:33:54.500 but like cats,
00:33:55.600 would go
00:33:56.160 and it would just
00:33:56.660 be crawling
00:33:57.140 with the happy cats.
00:33:58.840 And the customers
00:33:59.700 would just come in
00:34:00.660 and they would just
00:34:02.100 rent time.
00:34:03.640 I don't even know
00:34:04.280 if there could be
00:34:04.760 food there
00:34:05.220 because it might be
00:34:05.980 unhygienic.
00:34:06.800 but they would
00:34:07.720 just rent time
00:34:08.580 to go hang out
00:34:10.020 in an atmosphere
00:34:10.680 where there are
00:34:11.300 just cats
00:34:11.700 all over the place.
00:34:12.760 And you could
00:34:13.340 just bring in
00:34:13.860 your book,
00:34:15.060 maybe you bring
00:34:15.680 in your own
00:34:16.100 thermos or something
00:34:16.960 because I think
00:34:18.240 it would be
00:34:18.580 problematic
00:34:19.120 with food service,
00:34:20.800 animals and food service.
00:34:22.620 But if it's
00:34:23.440 your own thermos,
00:34:24.320 hey,
00:34:25.160 so you just come in,
00:34:26.100 you just rent a chair
00:34:27.020 and there are just
00:34:28.180 cats all over the place.
00:34:29.840 Cats like crazy.
00:34:32.700 Yeah,
00:34:33.140 see,
00:34:33.400 you would go.
00:34:33.740 I believe that
00:34:34.860 was it Japan
00:34:35.920 or someplace?
00:34:36.600 They actually
00:34:37.020 made a place like that.
00:34:42.340 When did they
00:34:43.220 start selling
00:34:43.780 Trump pills
00:34:44.360 on Fox News?
00:34:46.400 Can I do
00:34:47.220 multiple affirmations?
00:34:48.880 You can do
00:34:49.440 anything you want.
00:34:50.640 But I think
00:34:51.100 that since the
00:34:52.100 point is focus,
00:34:53.880 ask yourself
00:34:54.640 how many things
00:34:55.340 you can focus on.
00:34:57.560 But I think
00:34:58.480 two is fine.
00:35:01.020 Three might be
00:35:01.840 pushing it.
00:35:02.360 And it's not
00:35:03.820 because affirmations
00:35:04.820 are magic.
00:35:06.340 It's because
00:35:07.080 if focus is
00:35:08.180 the active part
00:35:08.960 of it,
00:35:09.300 and I imagine
00:35:09.840 it is,
00:35:10.980 then you don't
00:35:11.900 want to spread 0.96
00:35:12.360 that out too much.
00:35:15.260 All right.
00:35:16.520 That's all I got
00:35:17.260 for today.
00:35:17.900 I will see you.
00:35:19.580 Wait.
00:35:20.200 Before I go,
00:35:21.940 if you haven't
00:35:22.520 checked out
00:35:22.960 Locals,
00:35:23.740 where I have
00:35:24.420 a new comic strip
00:35:25.960 called Robots
00:35:26.700 Read News,
00:35:27.540 you should check
00:35:28.260 it out.
00:35:29.040 I can finally
00:35:29.820 say all the
00:35:30.440 things that I wish
00:35:31.120 could have said
00:35:31.640 in newspapers
00:35:32.220 and couldn't.
00:35:33.780 I can't tell you
00:35:34.840 how much fun that is.
00:35:36.180 All right.
00:35:36.580 I'll see you tomorrow.