Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 993 Scott Adams： CDC Blunders, Biden DNA Test App

00:00:00.000 pom pom pom hey everybody come on in here tonight nothing but optimism nothing but optimism

00:00:16.660 it's going to be optimism all over the place once you all get in here we're going to have some

00:00:21.620 interesting updates and while I'm waiting for everybody I don't know if you've seen the new

00:00:27.980 uh joe biden dna app is everybody seen that there's a new app uh i guess joe biden's campaign

00:00:36.800 made it and it's it's like a 23andme competitor kind of thing so it'll test your dna and i was

00:00:44.280 just going to finish the inputs here so we can get a result while you're waiting

00:00:49.940 let's see it's uh it's just got one question it says do you plan to vote for joe biden

00:00:59.100 um no enter and then you get the joe biden dna result uh that says um it says you ain't black

00:01:11.920 well that's sort of racist kind of creepy well that's the joe biden dna app no it's not a real

00:01:22.000 thing but if it were wouldn't it be funny so um let me talk about some of the things that are going

00:01:31.220 right i'm going to give you uh you're way ahead of me in the comments i'm going to give you the most

00:01:40.440 optimistic view of the future and then in a few minutes i'm going to bring on a special guest

00:01:46.020 to talk about convalescent plasma slash blood uh serum therapy and that's going to be uh ian

00:01:53.820 hilgart martesis who's probably queuing up right now to be brought on but before we do that let me show

00:02:01.980 you all the good news now i'm not saying that anything on this list is true this is just pure

00:02:09.340 optimism but some of it's true look at all the ways we've cut the risk so these are the ways we

00:02:16.980 know and the ways we suspect we might get lucky but we know the masks seem to cut the risk by 75

00:02:23.340 percent and i was just out at lowe's home supply 100 of the people have masks because of course they

00:02:34.220 can't get in without them so at least where i am the um the the the actual compliance is a hundred

00:02:41.480 percent distance of course is going to work how can distance not work there's lots of stuff we're

00:02:48.120 going to be doing to make sure we maintain distance of course it'll work i'm just going to say it'll

00:02:53.360 reduce risk by 50 percent compared to not doing distance um what about convalescent blood serum

00:03:01.920 therapy we're going to hear a little bit more about that in a bit but do we know yet how well

00:03:07.960 it works we don't so i'm just going to put my optimistic um and maybe it's even better but i'm

00:03:16.060 going to put an optimistic middle ground and say there's a 50 reduction of risk once we get this

00:03:22.680 cooking uh and then of course we know what to do with the rest homes now we we knew the wrong thing

00:03:28.500 to do and now we know the right thing to do so i don't think we'll be repeating those mistakes

00:03:34.180 so that probably takes a good 20 right off the top of risk because we finally i think i think we

00:03:42.060 finally figured out how to how to do the old people care facilities right but we got some other wild

00:03:48.500 cards so the things on the left are things that we were pretty sure about at least in the general sense

00:03:54.600 but the things on the right could be good too there's something about summer that seems to make

00:04:00.500 viruses you know lessen is it the humidity is it the sun is it the heat is it the vitamin d we don't

00:04:07.080 know but there does seem to be something about summer i'm going to give summer a 50 percent reduction 1.00

00:04:13.960 these are just my guesses i'm just being optimistic if you're just joining us

00:04:18.480 i called out vitamin d already maybe that's the only reason this summer makes a difference but

00:04:24.480 probably not they're probably the other factors matter too so i'll call this out by itself what

00:04:29.840 if vitamin d is everything that people say it's cut out to be we don't know that because there's a

00:04:35.400 strong correlation it seems but we don't know about the causation but let's say it is we'll just be

00:04:40.640 optimistic let's say good vitamin d levels cut your risk by 20 percent and let's say that the country

00:04:47.660 especially because it's summer is going to go out and get their vitamin d because now they know it

00:04:52.420 matters cut risk by 20 percent what happens if we get really lucky and the hydroxychloroquine and or

00:04:59.680 in combination with zinc or azithromycin or something else what if it works i don't think it's going to

00:05:06.140 be a magic kill shot because if it were that good we'd already know by now it would just be so obvious

00:05:11.820 if it if it just eliminated the virus we'd know that by now but it might work i mean it might make

00:05:18.720 a difference and if it's not these these male maybe there's something right behind it so i'm going to

00:05:23.720 give that a 20 percent reduction of risk what about herd immunity well it's worth something i don't think

00:05:31.400 we're going to get to 60 or 70 percent but if you've got let's say 10 percent of your public

00:05:36.960 maybe 20 percent at some point have it well that certainly makes a difference it's not enough to

00:05:44.140 stop it but these things are going to all add up and then what about the ventilator

00:05:49.520 situation we know that uh well there's i i think we can say we know it at this point

00:05:58.100 you know it's short of being confirmed i just whistled again uh it's short of being confirmed

00:06:04.360 but it does seem that we were over ventilating and killing people with ventilators right it seems

00:06:12.220 like we know that now that's not guessing anymore and now we know so there's a gigantic gain just from

00:06:20.280 learning what to do and what not to do and when to do it and when not to do it but the thing i'm most

00:06:26.100 excited about in the short term uh besides masks and distance is this convalescent um and i don't

00:06:36.060 know yet i'm gonna i'm gonna ask ian when i bring him on whether i should call it blood or plasma

00:06:40.500 we'll uh we'll get the the skinny on that if ian is ready to join me uh there he is

00:06:49.280 all right if our technology works this is going to be really interesting ian can hear me

00:07:00.920 i'm doing great terrific so make sure that i that i pronounce your name right ian

00:07:09.220 hilgard martisus close martisus did we lose you

00:07:16.540 oh um so so did i say your name right ian hilgard martisus

00:07:27.280 am i losing the i lost the connection well um i know he's going to come right back so let me

00:07:37.520 keep an eye on him that and we hope he will go find a place where his cell phone works a little

00:07:44.100 bit better i think there he is ian come back to us come back to us ian

00:07:52.660 oh wow this isn't going to work at all is it all right well it looks like we are going to have to

00:08:03.160 try to do this some other time huh yeah it's funny when i have lots of guests most of them work

00:08:11.500 but when you have one special guest the technology sneaks up on you um i'm going to see if

00:08:18.680 my guess is that he will be looking for a place for a better connection so i'm going to keep an eye

00:08:26.420 on that and if he finds it we'll go with it let me talk about speaking of rest homes while i'm waiting

00:08:35.560 for to try that again let's try it one more time if this doesn't work then we'll probably just need

00:08:42.280 to do it a different day

00:08:43.740 and it looks like it's not going to work hmm i wonder why anyway let's talk about rest homes and

00:08:56.000 new york so ian i don't know if you can hear me but it looks like this isn't going to work for today

00:09:00.220 i'm not not quite sure why but we will definitely do this again

00:09:03.980 um so here is a really interesting development in the uh in the cuomo new york did he put people in

00:09:18.700 rest homes and then they all died um turns out that the cdc recommended that

00:09:26.840 so even fox news was uh reporting of that today that apparently the cdc guidelines

00:09:35.480 were that you should put them back in the the homes that they came from

00:09:40.100 when when it's safe now of course the one is safe part is a is a wild card i guess nobody knows

00:09:47.760 uh so i i'm watching your uh i'm watching your comments somebody says that is bs

00:09:56.080 he blames the cdc well the cdc gave the guideline so apparently there were a dozen states that did

00:10:04.720 the same thing that cuomo did and the reason that a dozen states did the same thing he did is that

00:10:10.240 they all had the same guidelines from the federal government now how did we not know that right

00:10:18.280 why why why is it why is it today we learned that the cdc recommended exactly what he did

00:10:28.040 now i know you still want him to be a terrible person people are saying it's not true it's not true

00:10:36.000 well i i read it in the news minutes ago if it's not true maybe the news needs to fix itself but

00:10:46.280 but here's

00:10:48.240 did you see that coming that kind of came out of nowhere didn't it now part of the question is

00:10:56.720 why did other governors do it differently that's a good question right there were other governors

00:11:03.600 who did not do what cuomo did and yet they all had the same guidelines so would you say that the ones

00:11:09.320 who played it correctly were the smart ones and the ones who followed the guidelines from the cdc were the

00:11:16.860 bad ones i think at at worst the worst case scenario is if the governors were actually following the cdc

00:11:27.780 guidelines worst case scenario is the cdc's fault best case scenario there were some governors

00:11:35.340 who for whatever reason played it a different way but here's what i suspect would be true this is just

00:11:42.220 based on this is not based on any information this is based on living in the real world for a long

00:11:49.200 time if you live in the real world for a long time there's just certain patterns you see one of those

00:11:54.960 patterns is well if you're looking at the uh specifically the nursing home situation probably

00:12:03.260 there were different situations in each state and i'll just give you an example and i'm not saying that

00:12:08.680 this is what happened but it's an example of how you could be missing the bigger picture

00:12:13.300 one possibility is that the the rest home situation is just different in different places it could be

00:12:22.060 for example i'm just giving you a you know a for example imagine if you will that a lot of rest homes

00:12:28.620 in one state were centrally uh run and organized if you had one entity that ran a whole bunch of rest

00:12:36.520 homes you could say to that entity hey can you you know move stuff around so that one of them is

00:12:43.520 completely emptied and you'll you'll just move them in to the other places and then you'll have one that

00:12:48.880 you can use just for the covid patients now that would be kind of easy to do if you had one owner

00:12:57.020 who owned a chain of rest homes and they were geographically not too far apart because you could

00:13:03.200 always drive grandma to the other one now imagine you're in a state where that's not the case

00:13:09.080 imagine every rest home rest rest home has an individual owner and what you want to do

00:13:16.820 is empty one of them and use it just for coronavirus patients it's harder right now suddenly you've got to

00:13:25.740 get somebody who gives up their entire rest home and just turns it into a coronavirus place it's not

00:13:33.360 a chain that's just moving everything around and nobody feels too much pain it's just one person

00:13:39.660 that's just going to go out of business basically for a while you know i don't know how the money would

00:13:44.120 work but the point is it's a lot to ask of one operator it could be that the individual operators

00:13:52.340 were smaller in one state maybe there's some states such as florida where they have so many old

00:13:57.960 people they have massive infrastructure far more professional management because it's more of an

00:14:05.020 industry in florida to keep old people safe so the point is you can imagine a whole bunch of things

00:14:11.880 that are sort of the the details of what's different about the rest home situation where it would be

00:14:17.880 easy to imagine that only in a few states it was easy to make the change that was the smart change

00:14:23.660 which is to use one facility just for coronavirus patients and keep everybody else safe

00:14:29.660 i would not assume you're saying i'm going to block you for say for for this saying i sound like a

00:14:38.000 cuomo apologist if something's true you're not an apologist in fact if you call anybody an apologist

00:14:47.560 well i'll just i'll just speak for myself if you call me an apologist you're not paying attention

00:14:55.000 all right you're missing the whole show if that's what you're getting out of it why would i be an

00:15:00.880 apologist for cuomo why really can you think of any reason i would go out of my way to be biased

00:15:09.640 in favor of a governor of a state i don't live in there's no reason i'm just telling you what i see

00:15:18.500 if you don't like it if you don't like it i can't do much about that i'm just explaining what i see

00:15:27.120 all right um a physics apologist

00:15:34.200 uh because you fell for the folksy brother routine

00:15:39.700 did i fall for it

00:15:42.940 i'm just gonna block you too

00:15:46.620 so i i generally block people for when they tell me my opinion

00:15:52.800 i'm happy when you tell me your opinion you never get blocked for telling me your opinion

00:15:58.140 but if you tell me my opinion you have to get blocked there's nothing productive that i can do

00:16:05.680 with you uh all right somebody now somebody's saying it's not the cdc it's the cms the uh

00:16:14.300 and i believe that they also had guidelines but if you are the governor of new york and there's a

00:16:20.500 um and there's a crisis and it's a virology crisis and there are two entities telling you what to do

00:16:28.540 and one of them is the cdc it doesn't matter what the other one was

00:16:33.120 right i'm hearing you when you say there were two entities because i saw that as well

00:16:39.120 you know one was the

00:16:41.320 what is it medicare blah blah blah i don't know it doesn't matter

00:16:46.480 because one of them was the cdc it just doesn't matter what the other one said

00:16:52.360 it's a it's a it's a virus crisis people are going to do what the cdc tells them to do

00:16:57.360 all right let's see if ian is back

00:17:02.440 ian may be back and let's see if he has a different phone or different technology

00:17:09.240 oh this is looking better ian are you there

00:17:14.660 all right all right uh do you have different technology or are we going to cut out again what

00:17:22.060 do you think same technology but i like

00:17:25.940 and he's gone okay all right that technology isn't going to work ian

00:17:31.800 we will have to find a new technology and try it again all right um i swear that we will make that

00:17:38.760 work one of these times uh but i think it's just his cell phone didn't have didn't have a signal where

00:17:45.760 it is so anyway just to finish up on the the cdc stuff whoever saw that the story would go there

00:17:53.760 that the cdc would be uh now of course there's going to be questions whether he interpreted them right

00:18:00.420 whether he reacted soon enough whether he he adjusted quickly enough and by the way if

00:18:07.280 if uh if you would like me to say something bad about cuomo

00:18:11.860 and it turns out because i don't know the details yet if it turns out that he knew there was a problem

00:18:17.780 for a long time and he didn't adjust then i would blame him for not adjusting

00:18:23.240 but getting it wrong in the first place if the cdc had a guideline about that

00:18:28.640 i can't hold that against him but absolutely i would hold it against him

00:18:33.860 if if they quickly knew there was a problem and it took him a long time to adjust

00:18:38.760 and it looks like it took him a long time to adjust but i'd need to know the details in there

00:18:43.780 but if you want a criticism hell yeah if it took too long to adjust

00:18:48.620 why why would i ever defend that who could defend that

00:18:53.760 but i don't know the details there so i can't make that claim yet

00:18:57.420 um

00:19:00.480 all right it's okay not to blame uh and he ordered uh yeah he ordered a lot of

00:19:09.660 hydroxychloroquine so let me finish up with the cdc

00:19:14.460 let me let us look at their records so the cdc said

00:19:18.460 don't close the airport they're wrong about that they said

00:19:22.260 it wouldn't transmit between humans but you know of course they heard that from china

00:19:27.920 but they got that wrong i think correct me if i'm wrong on any of this

00:19:31.440 i'm not i'm just spitballing here

00:19:33.520 they were wrong about the masks

00:19:35.980 and now they might be wrong about uh no something else was wrong they're wrong about

00:19:42.060 uh they're wrong about how likely it transmits on physical surfaces

00:19:49.320 they were wrong about and now probably this you know this rest on thing

00:19:56.820 so uh yeah and the cdc was wrong about the uh the tests the test kit that was the test kit

00:20:05.220 was the biggest the test kit was the biggest mess up well i don't know maybe these were all

00:20:10.080 big mess ups right so there was the didn't want to close the airport wasn't transmittable

00:20:15.640 people to people uh mask will kill you uh rest homes basically every major problem

00:20:23.920 was the cdc wasn't it if you think about it it looks like the cdc

00:20:29.740 probably is responsible for i don't know 50 000 deaths i would guess

00:20:36.140 um explain my retweet on the ivermectin study i didn't understand i don't remember that retweet

00:20:45.880 what was ivermectin ivermectin i don't know what that is

00:20:51.980 there there's so many uh new little uh studies that are coming out

00:20:56.160 yeah so the surfaces etc

00:20:59.060 so i think the cdc is the um

00:21:04.160 is sort of i don't know who do you trust less

00:21:09.660 the world health organization or the cdc i mean even even the the poor uh surgeon general

00:21:16.840 i mean he was saying don't wear masks you know he was taking advice from from the other experts but

00:21:23.780 still come on

00:21:25.920 somebody says what is more toxic hydroxychloroquine or the cdc

00:21:33.600 um yeah i don't i don't think we can get ian back on he's going to need a different phone or a

00:21:40.280 different location i think uh one one of those two things so

00:21:45.120 yeah all right well i don't have anything else to say so um let me check one more time

00:21:52.120 see if ian came back he looks like he's back we'll see if he's got a new phone or he's

00:21:59.600 ian ian hey let's see if we can keep you on for more than five seconds this time

00:22:06.560 i'm doing my best and are you in the same place with the same phone

00:22:11.280 same

00:22:13.280 sounds like he's in the same place with the same phone all right well no matter how many times we

00:22:20.460 try exactly the same thing it's not going to work um but we'll make this work some other time

00:22:26.720 um but for tonight i will thank you all for coming and i will see you in the morning

00:22:31.680 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 24, 2020

Episode 993 Scott Adams： CDC Blunders, Biden DNA Test App

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