Alberta separatism is rising. What should we do about it？
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Summary
A poll commissioned by the government shows support for Alberta separatism is on the rise, so what should we do about it? Ezra explains why the government won't allow a poll on the subject, and why it's not likely to happen anytime soon.
Transcript
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It's December 21st, and this is the Ezra LeVance Show.
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Why should others go to jail when you're a biggest carbon consumer I know?
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There's 8,500 customers here, and you won't give them an answer.
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You come here once a year with a sign, and you feel morally superior.
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The only thing I have to say to the government about why I publish it
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I haven't seen any public opinion polls on the question of Alberta's separatism of you,
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but I am certain that both Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau
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have commissioned private polls with your money on the subject.
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About two weeks ago, we approached a pollster to commission a poll,
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as in we would pay them money, and they would do the poll.
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They would crunch the numbers using their methodology and give us the result.
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All we'd do, really, is pay them, but they refused.
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I thought pollsters were supposed to be neutral.
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Yeah, next you'll tell me that the media are neutral, too.
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I think sooner or later, a pollster will break the silence and publish a poll on the subject.
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I predict Angus Reid will be the first because they're based in the West,
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and they seem to be the most politically independent pollster.
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They're the ones that did the big immigration poll back in August
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that showed only 6% of Canadians want more immigration.
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31% of it wanted to stay the same, and fully 49% of it of Canadians want it lower.
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You do too many polls like that, though, and suddenly you can't get any government work,
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which is why I suspect we were refused our separatist poll.
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The other day, a Quebec think tank called the Montreal Economic Institute
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did a poll of Quebecers showing that a majority of them preferred oil from Canada
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That poll was immediately attacked by Trudeau's CBC straight broadcaster
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and their in-house government-funded poll analyst.
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The CBC's poll analyst, Eric Grenier, said, I'm just quoting here,
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said the questions in the survey missed the mark.
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The poll didn't ask the pertinent question whether or not Quebecers are willing to have
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a new pipeline built across the province in order to get that Western Canadian oil, he said.
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Yeah, that is an interesting question, and you could also compare it to Saudi oil tankers.
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The question they chose to ask, which is, where would you prefer your oil from?
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The government broadcaster getting a government academic to go out and tell people,
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don't pay attention to this poll we don't like.
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And just today, that same CBC Trudeau poll analyst, Eric Grenier is his name,
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he had another weird piece saying, don't pay any attention to polls that say Trudeau isn't
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The polls I went through earlier this week that show Trudeau's approval levels have plunged
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Government funded journalists at the CBC with government funded polling experts telling
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you not to believe polls that paint dear leader in a bad light.
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But I'm certain that behind the scenes, the message to pollsters is the same.
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If you report on the wrong things, you'll lose your big government contracts.
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Anyways, I think we'll probably see an Angus Reid poll on Alberta separatism pretty soon.
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And depending on how the question is worded, I'm going to make a prediction.
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I predict that support for Western separatism or Alberta independence, or however you want
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to phrase it, I predict that support will range between 20% and even 40% or 45%.
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If the question is written really hard, like, do you want Alberta to become its own country?
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If you ask something easier, though, like the Quebec separatist referendum questions,
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Back in 1980, Quebecers voted on this question.
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This is long, but I think it's pretty clear this is exactly what they voted on.
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The government of Quebec has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with
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the rest of Canada based on the equality of nations.
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This agreement would enable Quebec to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its
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And at the same time, to maintain with Canada an economic association, including a common
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Any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented
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with popular approval through another referendum.
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On these terms, do you give the government of Quebec the mandate to negotiate the proposed
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So it didn't actually call for independence, did it?
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It called for Quebec to negotiate a proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada, and then
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Even someone who doesn't want separatism, how can you oppose that?
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Because really, for decades, that was the Quebec game.
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There were some true diehard Quebec separatists who really did want their own country.
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But there were a lot of so-called soft separatists who really just wanted more power for Quebec
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within Canada, more money from Ottawa, more Quebec symbols, more deference.
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And look what it got them in the 38 years since that 1980 referendum.
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Quebecers have had the prime minister's office for 27 out of those 38 years, with the only
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exceptions being a few months of Joe Clark and King Campbell, and then Stephen Harper.
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I mean, is this guy a Quebec separatist or just a Quebec chauvinist?
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Quebecers are better than the rest of Canada because, you know, we're Quebecers.
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Look, Canada is hard now because it's Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic
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I mean, if you can threaten full separatism, as Quebec likes to do, but actually get $13
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billion a year in extra money through equalization payments from the rest of Canada, and get
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a guaranteed three out of the nine seats in our Supreme Court, they're set aside for Quebec,
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and get affirmative action into every senior job in the federal government by enforcing French
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That basically means Quebecers get the jobs, even in places like Vancouver or Hamilton where
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And then even on a more aesthetic level, where you can just say and do things, like you want
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20% fewer immigrants, and you want to ban the burqa in the civil service.
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And not only will the Ottawa political class defer to you, but most of the media and punditry
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And they won't do what they normally do, call people racist or Islamophobic, because that's
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You don't have to fully separate to get all these bonuses.
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I mean, there's a divorce, and then there's a divorce with bedroom privileges.
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Quebec separatism has given that province the best of both worlds.
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Whenever they're unhappy, they stomp their feet, they threaten to go, and they get what
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Look, there's a Quebecer in Quebec City who demands that a Quebecer in Ottawa give Quebec
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So just last week, Trudeau gave another $1.4 billion a year in equalization payment to his
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Quebec, as a province, is projecting a $3 billion surplus.
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But sure, why not bring another $1.4 billion out of Alberta and Saskatchewan and BC?
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And just to be crystal clear here, Justin Trudeau has given Quebec a veto over pipelines.
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Are you open to revitalizing an Energy East pipeline?
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But if the government came forward to de-risk it, as you did with the Trans Mountain,
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And there is clarity that under the current approach, there is no support for a pipeline
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So that's what Quebec has rung out of Canada for its separatist efforts.
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And really, that referendum back in 1980, even with all the weasel words and we'll have
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a second referendum, that only got 40% support in 1980.
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And yet we have had 40 years of Quebec getting whatever Quebec wants.
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I estimate they got close to a trillion dollars worth in today's inflation-adjusted money of
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financial and political perks from the rest of Canada.
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Just for that lame effort, back in 1980, not even 4 million people voted in the whole referendum.
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And out of those, only 1,485,000 voted to separate.
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That's how many voted to authorize their provincial government to negotiate a new deal with Ottawa.
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But those 1,485,000 votes, each have rung out countless concessions that we keep paying
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So 15 years later, in 1995, Quebec tried again, and they came much closer.
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And here's the wording of that year's referendum.
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Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for
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a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future
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of Quebec and of the agreement signed on the 12th of June, 1995?
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That bill they're talking about was basically a Quebec bill that laid out their plans and
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So again, not even the courage to say, hey, we're out of here.
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Do you want Quebec to be an independent country?
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They just said, hey, Quebecers, we've got this aspiration for a new country.
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We still want our Canadian passports and our Canadian currency, and we want Canadian trade
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We want Canadian embassy help around the world.
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But do you want us to, quote, make a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political
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But of course, it really succeeded because it led to another round of endless political
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You might remember that it was in the wake of that referendum that Jean Chrétien's office
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Just one tiny example where they sent a quarter billion dollars, a quarter billion, in kickbacks
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and bribes and commissions into Quebec to try and quiet the place down.
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To this day, Quebec has had a preferential place in the minds and hearts of our political
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establishment just because they want to appease them.
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I think Newfoundland's a distinct society also, by the way.
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But you must admit Quebec is a very distinct society.
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The French, they have a language, they have a culture, they have a history that is all
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Pure lane Quebecers, that means pure wool, like dyed in the wool.
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These are, I think the analogy would be like old stock Canadians or pioneer stock Albertans
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Remember, even in their provincial immigration rules, they have the power to prioritize immigrants
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When Quebecers make demands of Canada, they are, at the very least, those demands are discussed.
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And I suppose they are occasionally rejected, but they are almost never mocked, are they?
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In fact, any insult to Quebec, even a justifiable and reasonable one, is met with Ottawa politicians
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going full tilt, outdoing each other, trying to out-pro-Quebec each other.
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Do you remember this cover story in Maclean's magazine?
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Remember that cover there, the most corrupt province in Canada?
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I'm not even sure if they're still around, other than to reprint the odd liberal press
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But almost 10 years ago, they wrote that pretty honest cover story about Quebec corruption,
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and the Parliament of Canada voted unanimously to condemn Maclean's magazine.
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A House motion upbraiding Maclean's for the magazine's cover story on corruption in Quebec
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politics is thought to be only the second time in the century that MPs have closed ranks
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to express their disapproval with the work of a news publication, unquote.
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It's unthinkable that Parliament would vote to condemn, let's say, an attack on Alberta
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But they unanimously, even the Conservatives, voted to condemn Maclean's.
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Anyways, I said that I was going to talk about Alberta separatism today, and I will, but
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I thought it was important to remind you just for a moment about Quebec separatism, because
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And more importantly, how it has been richly rewarded, not only financially, but politically
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and morally and emotionally, and all that, despite the fact that they couldn't even
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muster 50% to even negotiate with Canada, they, oh no, we can't, they didn't even have
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Let me put that 1980s referendum question to you again.
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And all I'm going to do here is swap in the word Alberta for Quebec.
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That's the only wording change I'm making here.
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The government of Alberta has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with
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the rest of Canada based on the equality of nations.
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This agreement would enable Alberta to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy
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And at the same time, to maintain with Quebec an economic association, including a common
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Any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented
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with popular approval through another referendum on these terms.
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Do you give the government of Alberta the mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between
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How on earth could that possibly get less than 40%?
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I mean, I suppose if people thought that the incompetent and disloyal Rachel Notley was going
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to be the one leading Alberta's side of the negotiation, what a joke that would be.
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I mean, frankly, the majority of her senior staff have always been NDP staffers from Ontario
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and BC, including anti-oil lobbyists like Brian Topps.
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So I suppose if people thought that Rachel Notley was going to be representing Alberta's
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interests, they might not be thrilled about that.
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I mean, when you have one Quebecer in Quebec City negotiating with one Quebecer in Ottawa,
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negotiating how much money goes to Quebec, it's an inside job, right?
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But when you have an anti-oil leader in Edmonton negotiating with another anti-oil leader
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in Ottawa negotiating about Alberta oil, it is an inside job too, but it's to undermine
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So if you had even a moderately pro-Alberta, Alberta premier, and you then asked Albertans,
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hey, guys, things aren't really working out too well.
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Maybe we'd do better on our own, but let's at least try to negotiate a better deal with
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Let's keep independence as an option, but do you give us permission to negotiate a better
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Well, who wouldn't in their right mind say yes to that?
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And that is the wording of the 1980 Quebec referendum.
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Here, let me just show you some streeters, some Vox Populi that our new Calgary reporter
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Kian Bexty did the other day, just outside of Costco.
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And he was asking sort of a practical version of that question.
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He was just saying, who would be better for Alberta, Justin Trudeau or Donald Trump?
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Do you think Donald Trump would treat Alberta better than Justin Trudeau?
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As much as I don't really like Donald Trump, he does look out for himself, whereas Trudeau
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is not, I don't feel that Trudeau is keeping an eye on Alberta the way he should be.
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So, unfortunately, I have to say Donald Trump probably would.
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The last little offers, the case in point, it's all aimed at the wrong thing.
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And until that happens, the whole country is going to feel the crunch.
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Do you think Donald Trump would build pipelines?
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I think he probably would because he's a businessman and he gets what's going on.
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Yeah, I think Donald Trump would treat them better because he's very much about, I don't
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If you look at the map, obviously, Alberta is landlocked.
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B.C.'s, New Democrats, the courts, Justin Trudeau are blocking access to the West Coast.
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And Quebec's politicians, the courts and Justin Trudeau are blocking access to the Atlantic
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But Donald Trump couldn't be plainer about pipelines.
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Literally, in his first few days as president, he revived the Keystone XL pipeline that Barack
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This is with regard to the construction of the Keystone pipeline, something that's been
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in dispute, and it's subject to a renegotiation of terms by us.
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We're going to renegotiate some of the terms, and if they'd like, we'll see if we can get
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A lot of jobs, 28,000 jobs, great construction jobs.
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And Alberta, of course, but better for Canada, too.
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Now, the other day, a very blue-chip professor in Calgary, at the University of Calgary, Jack
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Mintz, economist, wrote an op-ed in the Financial Post.
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He had visited the United Kingdom, where they're going through their whole Brexit debate, and
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Jack Mintz, Alberta has better reasons for Albexit than Britain did for Brexit.
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Whatever negatives Alberta would face are easily swamped by the positives that would
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Now, let me quote a few lines from the professor.
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It's typical to poo-poo the possibility of Alberta's separation as unrealistic, given
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the close familial and economic relationships Alberta have, Albertans have with other parts
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But if Brexit happened, then Albexit is just as possible, probably more so given the existential
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threat to Alberta's prosperity over resource development.
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It means taxes and regulations, it undermines democracy, it's costly, it means open borders,
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Maybe it systematically benefits Germany, maybe, or France, maybe, certainly Brussels, where all
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But it's not explicitly, genetically anti-British.
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As in, for example, the EU countries don't put a naval embargo around the island of Great
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Britain stopping exports, which is exactly what is being done to Alberta.
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It's like what America's doing to Cuba, except Canada is doing to Alberta.
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Neither has the constitutional right to do so, by the way, except that Trudeau voluntarily
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We think that the oil sands have been expanded too rapidly without a serious plan for environmental
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So that's why we don't think it's up to us to decide whether there should be another route
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Because the real alternative is not an alternative route.
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He says, Alberta will also be able to keep for itself the annual $20 billion more it sends
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each year to Ottawa in taxes than it gets back in federal spending.
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That $20 billion is roughly 6% of the province's GDP.
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Hard borders and potential trade barriers with the rest of Canada would be a cost, but these
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would be subject to negotiation, and would they really be drastically worse than current
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internal barriers to trade, including pipeline obstacles that already exist between provinces?
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The national debt assumed by Alberta would be contentious, since Alberta would seek a credit for the $220 billion
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in net transfers it made to the rest of Canada over the past decade.
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And as I've always said, if British Columbia can embargo Alberta oil pipelines getting to
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the West Coast, doesn't that mean that Alberta can embargo, let's say, BC rail cars and semi-trailers
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bringing their imports from the port of Vancouver east to Ontario through Alberta?
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And anything Ontario and Quebec want to export west to the BC coast, couldn't Alberta block those
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the same way those places have blocked pipelines?
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I don't want that, by the way, but that's what reciprocity is all about.
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We were supposed to all be able to live with each other in a confederation
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where provinces and towns and villages didn't destroy each other or have toll booths for each other,
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If Alberta were independent, it could say to BC,
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hey guys, we'll totally let you ship your Chinese imports, like computers and cell phones
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and your Japanese car imports that are offloaded.
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You guys can ship that stuff right through Alberta to get to Ontario.
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I tell you, more people die on the Trans-Canada Highway driving from Vancouver through Alberta
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Why would we allow such dangerous goods on our roads?
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But I get the feeling BC wants its port as badly as Alberta wants its oil.
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Jack Mintz points out Saskatchewan would likely join Alberta pretty quickly.
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I mean, seriously, the only place that Trudeau and Catherine McKenna hate more than Alberta these days
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So where do we hear the rebels stand on separatism?
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Well, we're not calling for Alberta separation.
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In fact, we recognize that the worst damage to Alberta was done by the Alberta NDP, elected by Albertans.
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But we regard that as a once-a-century anomaly, a freak accident.
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The congenital constitutional hatred for Alberta from the Ontario and Quebec elite, the Laurentian elite,
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Preston Manning campaigned on the West wants in, but I don't think that worked.
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Stephen Harper allowed the West to live as equals, no special favors.
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And, in fact, Harper gave tens of billions of dollars in extra cash to Quebec.
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But remove that man, Stephen Harper, and the system very quickly reverted to its natural posture.
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So we think at The Rebel that it's probably healthy if the Quebec style of negotiation is adopted in Alberta.
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But they never had the courage to leave because they always knew they didn't really want to leave.
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I think Albertans would learn more and more just how much better things actually would be in many real-world measures,
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I mean, I suppose Alberta has its own distinct society, its own traditions, freedom, individuality, entrepreneurialism.
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So how are we going to cover Alberta separatism as journalists?
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And with an understanding that it comes from a genuine grievance.
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Not an attempt to extort more cash like in Quebec.
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Desired to be allowed to live freely and fairly under the rules of Canada as they were written.
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And I think one thing we'll do as we cover this phenomenon
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is constantly point out how Alberta separatists are covered by the rest of the media
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versus how that media covers Quebec separatists.
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And I just pulled this at random from one of Justin Trudeau's bailout media.
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It's written by some left-wing kook named Naomi LaCritz who writes editorials there for some reason.
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Well, I know the reason because Trudeau likes her.
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It looks like it was written as a condition for the $595 million Trudeau bailout.
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It's called Alberta separatists fueled by loss of civility.
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How much did the editor hate their own readers to publish this?
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Where's the reciprocity between Quebec and BC and Alberta?
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But that's not the lack of civility that Naomi LaCritz is talking about.
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She's blaming Albertans for being the rude ones.
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Let me quote from this insane suicide note of the Calgary Herald.
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So, Alberta separatism is just another variation of extremist response to the otherwise politically ordinary.
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Everything the left doesn't like is extremist or bigoted or racist or whatever, isn't it?
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And what's happening in Alberta is just ordinary.
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Every time Alberta perceives itself and its oil to be insulted by the rest of Canada,
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the separatists start clamoring for the province to go.
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Oh, yeah, sister, I don't think Albertans care about oil being insulted.
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I think they care about pipelines being blocked and having Alberta jobs destroyed
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by foreign-funded lobbyists and Canadian politicians who put their anti-Alberta bias ahead of the Constitution.
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Now, the Heralds quotes some American book written about other subjects to describe Albertans.
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Many derive their standards of conduct from the Bolsheviks.
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They think it reflects credit on them to scream in the faces of people they don't like.
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So you Bolshevik Albertans, I think that's projection.
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That they scream in the faces of people they don't like?
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I think that's more of a leftist move, an Antifa move.
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I've seen that in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver.
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Let me read some more from this bizarre, bizarre editorial in the Herald.
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Selfishness and fanaticism are the raison d'être, as they're fancy, eh?
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For the knee-jerk separatism that periodically rears its head whenever it feels the West is even mildly hard done by.
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Why don't you just ask Trudeau for a bailout like Naomi Le Critts and the Calgary Herald are going to get?
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The West is like a cat meowing at the back door.
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Now it wants in, but no sooner it is let in than it wants out again.
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Say, do you think this insulting, factually inaccurate, historically illiterate, bizarre rant,
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do you think that will make separatism higher or lower?
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Justin Trudeau has not received his briefing note yet from Gerald Butts.
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But you can bet it's going to be along the lines of the media party,
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the professors, the pundits, the paid-for bailout media,
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all demonizing and denouncing Alberta separatism.
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They'll want to hang separatism as an accusation around the neck of Andrew Scheer
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they don't disagree with the underlying premise.
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And their proper role in Canada is to provide money to Ottawa
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and to be a bad guy that every liberal can bash.
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So, Justin Trudeau and Gerald Butts and the leftist media want this fight.
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We'll respect people who are driven to contemplate separatism
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We'll call out the double standard by which the establishment
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woos and pays off and praises Quebec separatists,
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but attacks and ignores Albertans desperate enough
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would treat Alberta better than Justin Trudeau and the liberals do.
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Well, Omar Cotter is a convicted, confessed terrorist, murderer, and war criminal
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who was sentenced to 40 years in prison by a jury.
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Barack Obama cut a deal to spring him from Guantanamo Bay
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and foist him on Stephen Harper, who I don't think particularly wanted him.
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Well, once in Canada, he proceeded to woo the hearts of the media and the courts,
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which airline in Canada will take him to Saudi Arabia?