Rebel News Podcast - AVI YEMINI ｜ Making your vote COUNT with Topher Field

00:00:00.460 Australia's elections have been called and with just five weeks until the nation decides its future,

00:00:05.180 we're diving into what's ahead.

00:00:07.420 Joining me today is a guest who knows our system inside and out far better than I do

00:00:11.960 and will guide us through what we can expect.

00:00:16.400 But you're tuned into the free audio version of this episode, which is great,

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00:01:02.560 Welcome back to the Yamini Report.

00:01:05.280 And oh, what a week it has been.

00:01:07.420 Exciting.

00:01:08.400 An election finally called.

00:01:11.180 The choice is between bad and worse.

00:01:15.140 But I personally think that this election is so important and it is tight.

00:01:21.340 We'll unpack it all.

00:01:22.580 I think it is the outcome is going to be between the very best option and very worst option.

00:01:31.840 Here today to help me unpack it all is Topher Field.

00:01:35.480 Topher, welcome to the show.

00:01:37.540 Luke, thank you so much for having me.

00:01:39.080 I wish there was an election in Australia where I could get excited about a good result

00:01:43.720 rather than terrified of a really, really bad one and just campaigning for a slightly less

00:01:48.320 bad one.

00:01:49.260 But unfortunately, that's not what we have this time.

00:01:51.500 We have, as you said, between bad and less bad.

00:01:55.340 But unfortunately, there is substantial difference between those two options and I think a fairly

00:02:00.840 clear choice.

00:02:01.800 But we'll go into that.

00:02:03.020 Yeah.

00:02:03.180 Look, I think that the most, and that's what we'll unpack in a few minutes, I think the outcomes

00:02:09.560 are going to be between one that is, and probably most likely, the worst potential outcome compared

00:02:21.220 to when I say the very best outcome with what we have.

00:02:24.740 I think there is a potentially decent, which is probably the next option.

00:02:28.660 But like I said, I'll break it down with you because I think you're someone that has a

00:02:33.100 lot more understanding of the Australian system than I personally do.

00:02:37.200 So, in fact, as soon as the election was called and I was thinking, who am I going to have

00:02:41.860 on this week?

00:02:42.420 I was thinking, who's been in trouble for trying to explain the system before?

00:02:50.160 Tovenfield.

00:02:50.700 So, let's start there.

00:02:52.000 For people who don't know, what happened to you when it came to a previous election and

00:03:00.560 why you got in trouble?

00:03:02.480 Tell us the story.

00:03:03.880 Look, I wear a lot of hats.

00:03:05.380 I'm known as a lot of different things.

00:03:07.180 I've been a political commentator for 16 years.

00:03:09.580 I obviously was, like yourself, very active during all the COVID era, all that stuff.

00:03:13.820 And you'd think that that would be what I'd be known for.

00:03:15.800 But no, I'm actually mostly known as the marbles guy because I did a video using marbles in

00:03:21.120 tubs just explaining how preferential voting works.

00:03:24.180 Now, our system is a little bit different to most other systems around the world.

00:03:27.500 So, I can understand certainly immigrants and people moving here from other countries wouldn't 1.00

00:03:31.460 understand it, but it's really disappointing that our education system is so poor that

00:03:37.020 actually people that grew up here went all the way through school and have even voted

00:03:40.220 in multiple elections often don't really understand how our electoral system works.

00:03:44.580 I think it's brilliant.

00:03:45.420 I actually genuinely do.

00:03:46.380 I think our system's a really good one, but it does require some understanding.

00:03:50.100 So, I made a video to help people understand how it works and how they could really use

00:03:54.080 their preferential vote to support the really ideal good candidates who maybe don't have

00:03:59.240 a lot of chance of winning, but they're the really good ones, but then not have thrown

00:04:03.900 away their vote with regards to which of the bad options we get.

00:04:07.780 So, for example, you know, voting number one for the freedom-friendly minor parties,

00:04:11.500 one, two, three, four, five, but then still putting that in the head of Albo would

00:04:14.760 be, for example, what I'll be planning to do in this particular election.

00:04:17.960 So, I released a video doing that, and that went viral, tens of thousands of views.

00:04:21.140 I don't remember exactly.

00:04:21.940 It might have been over 100,000.

00:04:22.940 I don't remember.

00:04:23.560 It did fairly well.

00:04:25.000 And then I threw my hat in the ring to run for the Senate for the then Libertarian,

00:04:30.360 sorry, the then Liberal Democratic Party, now the Libertarian Party.

00:04:33.800 They actually had to convince me, I don't want to be in politics.

00:04:36.220 I don't want to be a senator, but they chased me and chased me, and I eventually said yes.

00:04:40.340 You played hard to get.

00:04:41.440 We know.

00:04:41.880 We get it.

00:04:42.500 So, then the Australian Electoral Commission turned around and took issue with that marbles 0.98

00:04:48.800 video because it did not have an authorization statement on it, which was created before

00:04:53.520 you ran.

00:04:54.560 Correct.

00:04:55.360 According to the legislation, you actually have to have it authorized because you were running.

00:04:58.860 Is that right?

00:04:59.920 That's right.

00:05:00.500 Well, because I'm running, but also there are organizations that may not be running themselves,

00:05:04.540 but if they seem to be campaigning, then they still need to have an authorization statement.

00:05:08.640 And there's good reasons for that.

00:05:09.760 I don't object to that in principle, but the thing with something like that is I was the

00:05:14.840 candidate.

00:05:15.900 The video had my name on a TV behind me and my face all over it.

00:05:20.580 I'm not sure that anyone was confused about who had authorized it.

00:05:24.300 I'm not sure that there was a lack of clarity or a lack of transparency there, which is what

00:05:28.200 these laws are supposed to deal with.

00:05:30.060 So, I had to take that video down and re-release a new version with an authorization statement

00:05:34.900 just to keep the AEC happy.

00:05:37.100 But there's a funny addendum to this, Avi, that you may not be across.

00:05:40.060 You probably are, but you may not be, and certainly some of your viewers won't be.

00:05:43.380 You'd be familiar, of course, with the fact that the AEC went on to sue the United Australia

00:05:47.740 Party because they felt that some of the lettering at the bottom of one of their call

00:05:51.180 flutes wasn't big enough.

00:05:52.540 The AEC lost that court case that was thrown out and it was found to be compliant.

00:05:56.880 Well, now we have a really interesting situation that just came up yesterday or the day before.

00:06:02.000 Tanya Plibersek, who is a current federal government minister, she's a minister in the

00:06:06.460 government because she's a member of the Labor Party. 0.96

00:06:08.740 She has just been photographed campaigning not under the red color of Labor.

00:06:14.540 She's campaigning with volunteers wearing her branding and her name dressed in purple.

00:06:20.320 Now, that raises two really interesting questions, Avi.

00:06:22.880 One is, why is she afraid of her own party's branding?

00:06:27.460 What is it about her polling that is telling her that the Labor Party colors and brand are

00:06:32.100 not what she should be campaigning under?

00:06:33.920 That's question number one.

00:06:35.100 So you believe it was a conscious decision, 100%?

00:06:37.540 Absolutely.

00:06:38.420 She wasn't wearing casual clothes? 0.86

00:06:39.640 Was that like branded purple?

00:06:41.020 No, no, no.

00:06:41.360 This was all of her volunteers with her name written on the front in purple colored shirts.

00:06:46.320 This was very much a strategic decision on her part.

00:06:48.960 That's a marketing, they've paid somebody to come up with that, correct?

00:06:51.860 Correct.

00:06:52.680 And the thing is, in Australian politics, the AEC as a sort of a neutral, unbiased

00:06:57.700 administrator of the election, they had to pick a color to represent their own volunteers

00:07:02.280 and staff, et cetera.

00:07:03.140 And they picked purple because at the time there were no political parties using anything

00:07:06.780 close to purple.

00:07:07.960 So they picked a neutral color.

00:07:09.760 And since then, every other party has stayed away from that color.

00:07:12.460 And if you do use a color that's too close to the AECs, the AEC will force you to change

00:07:17.160 color because it could be confused and you don't want people walking up to someone thinking

00:07:21.020 they're neutral, but actually they're campaigning on behalf.

00:07:22.960 And an official commissioner.

00:07:24.460 That's right.

00:07:25.080 That's right.

00:07:25.820 Commissioner.

00:07:26.440 So these are the two issues now.

00:07:28.400 And if the AEC don't take action against Tanya Plibersek after taking action against me

00:07:33.800 for my marbles video and taking action against the UAP and Rav Babette, Senator Rav Babette,

00:07:39.460 Babette, by the way, is aware of this and he said that his office will be raising this

00:07:43.400 with the AEC today.

00:07:44.800 So breaking news for you.

00:07:46.020 I don't know the outcome yet, but this is definitely going to go to the highest levels.

00:07:49.740 Well, that's interesting.

00:07:50.560 We'll follow that closely.

00:07:52.400 Just, you know, I think it's a good way to gauge because a lot of people have in the

00:07:56.200 past pointed at the AEC and kind of like I did, I laughed when you said that they're

00:08:01.980 unbiased and neutral.

00:08:03.580 And I think the same about the VEC.

00:08:05.080 I think they're not.

00:08:06.020 I think they certainly favour the two major parties.

00:08:14.520 And I dare say like many of our institutions, they lean closer to the left.

00:08:19.600 I've had personal experiences with the VEC in which they prosecuted me under legislation

00:08:25.860 that's never been tested before.

00:08:28.720 Little old me and my Facebook Live in 2018 where I was chasing green.

00:08:33.320 You know, they targeted me and we're going totally off, but they targeted me for allegedly

00:08:40.460 stalking another candidate.

00:08:43.720 By what?

00:08:44.520 By going to polling booths that we were both candidates at.

00:08:49.280 And I was holding a Facebook Live at the time.

00:08:53.440 That was the big thing and chasing this Greens candidate.

00:08:56.420 But they got me, they tried to prosecute me under stalking and then other some other weird

00:09:02.360 legislation.

00:09:02.980 And it all got thrown out at the end.

00:09:04.800 But to the point, I think that they are very biased and they do certainly favour the two

00:09:12.580 major parties and then when you break it down further, like in my case, they certainly favour

00:09:18.400 the left wing parties.

00:09:20.100 I don't know if it's a systemic problem or whether it's just that the volunteers and the

00:09:26.040 neutral volunteers, people that work, not volunteers, neutral people that make up the institution,

00:09:34.940 the government body, all kind of like most government bodies lean to the left.

00:09:40.420 It's a great question.

00:09:41.560 And it's actually, I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm thinking about dedicating my

00:09:44.960 third, my next book actually to exactly this issue, the issue of system, because I would

00:09:49.360 argue that the minute you put something inside a system, you doom it, you condemn it.

00:09:53.580 I think the word system is actually a parasite.

00:09:55.780 It's a parasitic word.

00:09:57.180 And so if we think about some common systems that we interact with all the time, the education

00:10:01.540 system, is it really about education or is it about compliance with the system?

00:10:05.740 So the word system, as soon as it gets attached to education, it ends up eating the education.

00:10:09.660 It's not about education anymore.

00:10:10.800 The education side of it gets destroyed.

00:10:12.420 It's about compliance with the system.

00:10:14.100 What about the justice system?

00:10:15.500 Is it really about justice or is it about who can play the system better?

00:10:19.120 Every time you put the health care system, is it really about good health outcomes or is

00:10:23.560 it actually about the people in the system making sure they comply with the system so that

00:10:27.500 their ass is covered even if the health outcomes are bad?

00:10:29.900 As soon as you put an election into a system, you are going to end up with the system, a

00:10:34.660 system's highest priority is its own survival.

00:10:37.320 And so is there a leftist bias amongst AEC staff members?

00:10:41.140 Probably because that's the side of politics that is most likely to increase their funding 0.99

00:10:46.220 to ensure their ongoing survival.

00:10:48.920 But there's actually a funny little addendum onto the end of that particular issue that

00:10:52.480 you had there.

00:10:53.160 You were prosecuted for daring to try and doorstop and try and interview a fellow candidate.

00:10:58.100 Now we're watching calls for increased security for politicians and the evidence for this

00:11:03.800 requirement, this need, we desperately need more security, is because members of the public

00:11:08.280 are asking unvetted questions.

00:11:11.120 Now, this is taking this idea that words are violence to the extreme.

00:11:14.500 I mean, words are not violence.

00:11:15.460 You and I know that.

00:11:16.120 No one's ever been punched in the pronouns.

00:11:18.140 It's an absurd concept.

00:11:19.480 And yet now we have politicians running scared from unvetted questions and making it a personal

00:11:24.600 security issue, saying we need to be protected from the voting public, from the very people

00:11:29.160 whose votes we are supposedly trying to win over, lest they have the opportunity to ask

00:11:34.340 us a question that hasn't been vetted first.

00:11:36.840 That's actually a good point.

00:11:38.940 Look, I've known they've been running scared from unvetted questions for a long time.

00:11:42.220 In fact, I went to fight in the Supreme Court for my right to pose these unvetted questions

00:11:49.460 and I lost because they, you know, that's the thing when their government has the deep

00:11:54.900 pockets that they have and the laws that they created, they can find some very, you know,

00:12:00.460 legislation and really make it difficult.

00:12:04.920 And that's what they're doing here.

00:12:05.620 That's what they'll, they'll put the, they'll use the entire system again, um, to protect

00:12:11.000 what they've built and to protect their little cozy and, and it's both parties do it.

00:12:16.460 Um, but, uh, firstly, I just want to note that was a clever way to insert the fact that

00:12:21.920 you have written two books and this is going to be a third book.

00:12:25.420 Is that just showing off or what, what are the name of the books?

00:12:27.920 Just so people.

00:12:28.760 Oh, well, well, I do look, it just so happens.

00:12:31.520 I have some sitting right here, Arby.

00:12:33.120 What a, what a coincidence, what a, what a wonderful twist of fate.

00:12:36.800 I know.

00:12:37.080 So my first book was Good People Break Bad Laws.

00:12:39.140 This is about the, um, the philosophy of civil disobedience in the modern age.

00:12:43.360 Then my second book, which came out, uh, very early this year is Good Christians Break Bad 0.74

00:12:47.160 Laws.

00:12:47.420 This is the Christian theology of civil disobedience. 0.97

00:12:49.780 There's a lot of people who incorrectly say, well, the Bible says we have to do as we're

00:12:53.920 told by the civil authorities.

00:12:55.060 Well, it's way, way, way deeper than that.

00:12:57.340 And I dive into that.

00:12:58.620 It's sort of 270 pages of pretty solid theology.

00:13:01.160 Um, my third book, I haven't, again, I haven't settled on this yet, but I'm playing with the

00:13:05.860 title Psychocrats, which is obviously an amalgam, a conjugation of psychopath and bureaucrat, because

00:13:12.580 my argument essentially is that by putting people into a system, into a bureaucracy, you

00:13:16.900 make otherwise decent people willing to behave like psychopaths and to participate in

00:13:21.740 psychopathy.

00:13:22.780 Um, but yes, ultimately I am just trying to flex on you because as best as I'm aware, you

00:13:26.960 have only written the one book.

00:13:28.400 Uh, and you don't barely a book, if you put it next to one of yours, it's probably half

00:13:32.340 the thickness.

00:13:33.600 I did enjoy it though.

00:13:34.880 Genuinely.

00:13:35.320 The things that I said, uh, at the book launch in London, which you kindly allowed me to speak

00:13:39.080 at were absolutely true.

00:13:40.340 I think it's actually a really great read.

00:13:42.200 Appreciate it, mate.

00:13:42.880 So going back to now the first video, um, for people who, I know we don't have the props

00:13:49.400 here to marbles and, and let's say this is authorised by Topher Field from, uh, what do

00:13:54.980 you have to say?

00:13:55.280 For Topher Field.

00:13:56.040 Hero Box 2214613.

00:13:59.820 Um, so what, what, what, can you explain to us how the system actually works quickly?

00:14:05.980 Yeah, it's, it's actually relatively straightforward.

00:14:09.660 You just have to approach it with a certain logic of what the problem was that they were

00:14:13.140 trying to fix.

00:14:13.840 So let me explain the system by first explaining the problem.

00:14:17.040 See, our constitution was written in about 1899.

00:14:19.500 It was ratified in 1901.

00:14:21.400 And so they had the opportunity to learn from the French constitution following their, their

00:14:26.220 revolutions, et cetera, from the American Republic following their revolutions from the

00:14:30.360 Westminster system expressed in different forms around the world.

00:14:33.060 And there was a problem that kept coming up and it's this problem where, let's say, let's,

00:14:39.280 I'll illustrate, let's say there's an election between me and Adam Bant.

00:14:44.340 All right.

00:14:45.200 And that's where the two candidates.

00:14:46.880 All right.

00:14:47.380 And so, and let's say I'm in the lead, I'm going to win with 55% of the vote and he's

00:14:51.140 going to come second with 45% of the vote.

00:14:53.140 All good.

00:14:54.300 The, the, the person who gets the majority of the votes wins and that's how it should

00:14:57.200 be in a democratic system.

00:14:58.620 But let's say that you decide that you're also going to run.

00:15:02.160 Now it so happens that if you compare my policies and Adam Bant's policies with yours, you're

00:15:07.180 pretty similar to me in comparison to Adam Bant, right?

00:15:09.940 Sure.

00:15:10.220 There'd be some differences, but broadly speaking, you and I have a lot of overlap.

00:15:14.280 What that means is that most of the people that are going to vote for you are going to

00:15:17.240 be people that would have voted for me.

00:15:19.600 And let's say now, and cause I'm going to put you behind me, not in front, just for the

00:15:22.600 sake of my own ego.

00:15:23.680 Let's say you get 25%.

00:15:25.840 All right.

00:15:26.160 I was going to get 55% when it was just me versus Adam, but now you get 25%.

00:15:30.920 Now I'm left with 30.

00:15:32.460 Adam still gets his 45%.

00:15:34.200 And in a lot of systems, that means he wins because you and I split the vote between us.

00:15:41.300 Now, what the founders of our constitution, the framers of our constitution recognized

00:15:44.880 was that this is a problem.

00:15:46.800 Elections shouldn't be decided just because there were too many candidates too similar to

00:15:51.180 each other in terms of their policies that then split the vote between themselves.

00:15:54.640 That leaves you with a result that doesn't really represent the overall will of the people.

00:15:59.640 So they came up with this thing called a preferential system.

00:16:02.560 And what you're doing, you have only the one vote and the constitution of Australia says,

00:16:05.740 you know, one man, one vote.

00:16:07.080 And we have that.

00:16:07.840 There are people who say, oh, preferential voting is unconstitutional.

00:16:10.260 No, it's not.

00:16:11.020 You've still only got one vote, but you use it differently.

00:16:14.120 You write down in order of your preference, number one, next to your most preferred candidate,

00:16:18.640 number two, next to your, the best backup, right?

00:16:21.540 So they might put one number one on you and they put number two on me and number three

00:16:25.800 on Adam Bandt because he's their worst option.

00:16:28.120 And that means that if you get eliminated because you had the least of 25%, your 25% flow

00:16:32.660 to me and now I still win.

00:16:34.660 And the result for the electorate is still the closest representation of their actual will.

00:16:41.220 So that was the problem they were trying to solve.

00:16:42.600 And that's how they decided to solve it.

00:16:45.200 They've made a few decisions that I think put people's noses out of joint because they

00:16:48.840 know they, a lot of people, again, our education system doesn't do a good job with this and

00:16:52.380 doesn't explain it well.

00:16:53.620 So in the lower house, you're required to number every single box, which means you're

00:16:57.740 required to put a number next to the major parties.

00:17:00.640 You're required to put a number next to the Greens.

00:17:03.240 You're required to put a number next to the people that you really don't want your vote

00:17:06.680 ever to go to.

00:17:07.940 And some people get their noses out of joint and say, this is rigged.

00:17:10.380 It's forcing you to vote for the major parties.

00:17:12.820 Well, let's think this through a little bit, because what happens is once all of the votes

00:17:16.580 have been counted, the number one votes have been counted.

00:17:18.800 It's like marbles in my boxes.

00:17:20.720 Whichever candidate has the fewest gets eliminated and their votes, we go back to the actual

00:17:25.360 votes, the actual pieces of paper that were filled out by the voters and find, well, where's

00:17:29.200 the number two for this vote?

00:17:30.360 Oh, it's over here.

00:17:30.960 We'll put that vote in there.

00:17:32.080 Where's the number two for this vote?

00:17:33.260 Oh, it's over there.

00:17:33.840 We'll put that one over there.

00:17:35.100 And so people think that parties or candidates direct their preferences.

00:17:38.860 That's not true anymore.

00:17:40.380 Your vote will go exactly where you say it should go on your ballot.

00:17:44.540 Did it used to be the other way?

00:17:46.260 Did it used to be the party decided?

00:17:47.780 Okay.

00:17:48.240 It did.

00:17:48.840 And so we still have the above the line, below the line thing in the Senate.

00:17:52.480 But what it used to actually be was you could just put a number one above the line and walk

00:17:56.400 away.

00:17:56.800 You didn't have to put a number two next to anyone.

00:17:58.980 And what that told the system was you were voting number one for that party.

00:18:02.020 And then you wanted your preferences to go wherever the party had decided your preferences

00:18:07.240 were going to go.

00:18:08.300 And they eliminated that option federally.

00:18:10.280 And I think that's a really good reform.

00:18:11.740 I think that was a good thing to get rid of.

00:18:13.300 And now your vote will only ever go where you send it.

00:18:17.200 That's it.

00:18:17.840 That's the rule.

00:18:19.080 Don't you think there would have been a better balance where you could just put number one

00:18:22.520 and let them decide or go, nah, like I personally go and I feel them all out.

00:18:28.720 You know, I want the satisfaction of putting.

00:18:30.260 I want the satisfaction of standing there in the booth and deciding whether the socialists

00:18:36.080 go last or the Greens.

00:18:38.700 Sorry, is there a difference?

00:18:40.120 No, no.

00:18:41.260 But you know what?

00:18:41.900 The way I think about it is I put the Greens last because they got more of a chance of

00:18:49.300 getting in than I just want the least chance of it ever.

00:18:53.360 So what you're talking about there is what's known as optional preferential, where you can

00:18:57.000 stop wherever you want.

00:18:58.080 And yes, that I would support that as a reformer.

00:19:00.920 But let's actually stop and think this through because numbering every box is not as bad as

00:19:04.120 people think it is.

00:19:05.520 Let's say you follow my advice, which I've got in multiple videos around the place where

00:19:09.120 you need to put at one, two, three, four, as many decent candidates as you've got.

00:19:14.120 And by that, I define that for me as the freedom friendly minor parties that stood up

00:19:18.700 during COVID.

00:19:19.400 So I'm going to include libertarians in my number one, full disclosure, I'm a former

00:19:22.960 candidate for them.

00:19:23.780 I love those guys and they're very much my team.

00:19:25.540 But also One Nation, even Trumpet of Patriots, there's this new kind of Clive Palmer thing.

00:19:31.000 I don't love it.

00:19:31.840 I don't love that it's all fallen out the way that it has.

00:19:33.980 But you know what?

00:19:34.700 We need to include them.

00:19:35.620 Let's include them.

00:19:36.380 Ralph Babette for UAP has been a fantastic senator.

00:19:38.780 So let's support what they're doing there.

00:19:41.880 Jared Rennick up in Queensland.

00:19:43.800 And there's a bunch of other parties that don't have elected members right now, but they've

00:19:47.440 got good values.

00:19:48.640 And so if they're on my ballot, I'm going to include them all.

00:19:50.580 One, two, three, four, five, six, as many as there are, then I'm going to put both of

00:19:56.340 the major parties.

00:19:58.220 Now, this means that even the, so I'll put the liberals above Labor, myself, that's my

00:20:01.800 personal preference.

00:20:02.820 I will go all of the decent minor parties and then the liberal party.

00:20:06.980 Now, the reality is because candidates get eliminated from smallest number of votes to

00:20:11.300 largest number of votes, the major parties are going to be among the very last parties

00:20:16.220 ever to be eliminated.

00:20:17.400 They're going to usually be in the last two because most lower house seats get won by one 0.91

00:20:21.660 of the major parties, by the coalition or by Labor, with a few exceptions here and there.

00:20:26.200 But if you live in a seat that is one of those exceptions, you probably already know

00:20:29.060 about it.

00:20:29.720 So the reality is my vote is never likely to move on from the liberal party because the

00:20:34.240 liberal party are likely to be there all the way to the very end of the count.

00:20:37.420 So the fact that I put a number next to the Labor party, next to the socialists, next

00:20:41.220 to the Greens, all the way down the ballot is irrelevant because my vote will only move

00:20:45.720 on from the liberal party if the liberal party get eliminated from the count.

00:20:49.200 And we know from history that that almost certainly won't be the case in the seats, kind

00:20:53.340 of seats where I've lived during most of my life.

00:20:56.360 So people get their knickers in a knot over having to number every single box.

00:20:59.880 And I agree that making it optional preferential would be a better reform.

00:21:03.980 But the fact is your vote, if you use the two major parties in the middle as a blocker,

00:21:08.440 the good small parties above them, the bad small parties below them, and then both of the

00:21:12.660 majors in the middle as a blocker, your vote will never reach any of those bad parties that 0.96

00:21:16.920 you don't want it to reach.

00:21:17.940 It will help the minor parties and give them an outside chance of maybe stealing a seat

00:21:22.900 here or there.

00:21:23.940 And then it will stop on your preferred major party and probably never go anywhere from

00:21:28.160 that.

00:21:28.720 And look, I think the reason why, because I know when people look at it, they go, all

00:21:33.720 right, I'll put the Liberal party at the bottom of the good independence, preferred

00:21:39.820 independence, then Liberal, and then they'll argue, then they'll put all the other minor

00:21:46.920 parties and put Labour at the bottom.

00:21:48.960 I would argue against that because I actually prefer Labour.

00:21:53.340 So this goes back to what I was saying.

00:21:55.560 And this is my view as to what the outcomes are.

00:21:58.660 And correct me if you think I'm wrong, as you always do.

00:22:01.660 In fact, you enjoy to.

00:22:02.940 I believe what we're facing now is most likely a Labour minority, which is the most dangerous

00:22:11.540 outcome.

00:22:12.400 That is the worst outcome.

00:22:13.840 It means it's going to be like now, just worse because it's going to be Greens and maybe 1.00

00:22:18.580 Teals and some other fringe lunatics with far leftist woke ideology driving them. 0.99

00:22:24.820 And so that is going to essentially drive the agenda because if the Labour party want to

00:22:31.180 get anything through, they're going to have to bend over even more than they do now to

00:22:37.180 the Greens, to the far leftist.

00:22:39.200 That seems like the most likely at the moment, only by a margin.

00:22:43.420 The second most likely seems like it can be the Liberal party with the same sort of structure,

00:22:50.560 a minority government, but they're forced to make government with right wing parties and

00:22:57.600 some of those independents that we're talking about, some of the good independents.

00:23:01.480 So to me, that's the best outcome because it forces the Liberal party to actually uphold

00:23:09.340 their so-called liberal values in whether it's libertarian, so freedom and, you know, some

00:23:15.240 more right wing.

00:23:17.560 So essentially forcing Dutton to, in most cases, be more like probably what many of his

00:23:27.840 politics are, minus the anti-free speech, but generally he's probably a conservative.

00:23:33.920 So that'll force him a bit more to the right and the entire Liberal party.

00:23:37.500 Forcing the Liberal party to behave a bit more like the Liberal party that Robert Menzies

00:23:40.820 founded in the first place.

00:23:42.640 Now, can I make a slightly technical distinction?

00:23:44.420 It's not one that necessarily matters in substance, but it's going to help people's understanding

00:23:47.780 of how this preferential thing works.

00:23:49.500 You made the comment about some people wanting to put Labor all the way at the bottom and

00:23:52.680 therefore the Greens and Socialists and other bad independents teals are going to be in between 0.88

00:23:56.360 the Liberal party, which is kind of their blocker in the middle, and the Labor party at the

00:23:59.880 bottom.

00:24:00.200 I agree with you that I will actually go Liberal party, then Labor party, then all the bad ones

00:24:04.960 underneath.

00:24:05.500 But it will almost certainly make no difference in the real world.

00:24:08.480 And here's why.

00:24:09.900 Once your vote reaches the Liberal party, it stays with them until they get eliminated.

00:24:13.180 And we've already established in almost every single seat.

00:24:15.640 They will be among the last few to get eliminated.

00:24:18.800 Then your vote will go to the next party that hasn't already been eliminated.

00:24:24.420 Now, all the little, the Transport Matters parties, the Animal Justice parties, all those

00:24:27.600 guys, they're gone.

00:24:28.360 They're long gone.

00:24:29.340 So your vote is not going to stop with them.

00:24:30.880 They've already been eliminated.

00:24:31.860 So in most cases, your vote would actually jump from the Liberals to Labor anyway, or

00:24:36.820 essentially that would be the law.

00:24:37.620 But okay, so let me put it to you this way.

00:24:40.640 What if it ends up being between the Greens and the Labor party?

00:24:46.500 And that's the one time they make a difference.

00:24:48.640 And your vote ends up going to the Greens, and then you're helping create the most dangerous

00:24:53.160 outcome, which is a Green-led Labor minority.

00:24:57.300 And that's what I'm most fearful of.

00:25:00.080 It's wild because it seems like it's really, it's tightening up between those two options.

00:25:06.800 It still seems like at the moment, if you can believe the polls, I don't know.

00:25:11.300 I don't know.

00:25:12.380 Like, I called the Trump election easily just from being on the ground.

00:25:15.740 I feel like people are voting against the Greens, especially, and if you look at the

00:25:22.140 last couple of by-elections, it seems like people are rebelling against the Greens party.

00:25:27.620 But I don't know.

00:25:29.880 I'm not confident enough to call it, and I'm shit scared of that outcome.

00:25:33.780 I am super excited about the second most likely possibility.

00:25:38.760 And then I would say the next possibility is probably a Labor majority, and then lastly,

00:25:47.960 a Liberal majority.

00:25:49.060 Now, I understand that the, or I guess the argument for a Liberal majority would be that

00:25:56.360 at least you want them to be able to govern if you believe in most of the things.

00:26:00.080 I just, I think that they, I think with a Liberal minority, they'll be able to govern on the

00:26:07.160 things that we actually think are good.

00:26:09.080 So the things that matter, the conservative libertarian values, they'll be able to govern

00:26:14.060 if they actually push those with a Liberal minority.

00:26:17.140 What do you think?

00:26:18.300 I cannot get excited about a Liberal government.

00:26:20.920 I cannot get excited about a Dutton government.

00:26:22.640 Look at the nonsense that he's talking about.

00:26:24.600 He's going to keep racking up debt, putting it on the credit card.

00:26:27.900 I've got three kids.

00:26:28.700 I care about their futures.

00:26:30.520 I cannot bring myself to get excited about Dutton as a Prime Minister.

00:26:34.080 I don't think that's a step in the right direction.

00:26:36.240 I will say that I would rather see him as Prime Minister than another term of Albanese,

00:26:42.220 because it says really bad things about us if after how bad Albanese has been, we re-elect

00:26:47.800 him, all right?

00:26:48.440 It's a little bit like Victoria.

00:26:49.020 Doesn't it feel like Dan Andrews, like all over again?

00:26:51.780 It's the same thing.

00:26:53.280 So I want to see Albo lose, but I can't get excited about Dutton winning, if that makes

00:26:57.700 sense.

00:26:57.940 And regarding the probabilities, it's quite interesting at the moment, and this happens

00:27:01.740 more often than people realize.

00:27:03.620 There is a divergence right now between the polls, which are moving towards an Albo election,

00:27:10.280 although there has been some swing back and forth.

00:27:12.140 It's not static.

00:27:13.380 But the betting markets are actually have pretty clearly broken in favor of the Liberal Party,

00:27:18.100 which is interesting.

00:27:19.080 Still now?

00:27:20.200 You're still now.

00:27:20.680 As of the last time I saw it, it was Saturday.

00:27:24.900 So as of Saturday, the betting markets were still, I believe, in favor.

00:27:28.540 By how much?

00:27:30.140 About $1.83 for Dutton and $2 and a low $2 for Albo is where it was the other day, which

00:27:37.560 is not a big split.

00:27:38.720 That would be something that would be like 55% chance, something like that, which by

00:27:45.000 the way is something which is pretty similar to how, I just want to point out, because

00:27:49.160 I did it a lot and I did it from Las Vegas on the ground at the time.

00:27:54.060 And that's kind of where it was with, it might've been 59, actually, with Trump to Kamala.

00:28:02.680 Like the betting markets were saying that and the polls, the polls were probably very

00:28:07.740 similar to what we're seeing now.

00:28:08.960 They were saying it's pretty tight, but it's leaning towards Kamala.

00:28:13.080 I bloody hope, but I just don't want to sit here.

00:28:14.860 I want to be a realist.

00:28:15.740 I don't want to sit here and feel like we're in for a chance to, like you say, just get

00:28:22.540 out of this cycle of craziness we're in.

00:28:26.140 Yeah.

00:28:26.460 It's ridiculous.

00:28:27.500 So all we've talked about so far though, is the lower house and there is a second house

00:28:30.720 of parliament, which is the Senate.

00:28:32.000 Yes, sir.

00:28:32.260 And this is important.

00:28:33.040 So government is formed by whoever can get a majority of support in the lower house.

00:28:38.080 76 seats, ain't it?

00:28:39.500 Correct.

00:28:39.880 And that's the house of government.

00:28:41.100 That's where government is formed.

00:28:42.540 The Senate is a house of review.

00:28:44.260 It doesn't form government, but you cannot get legislation through without them agreeing.

00:28:49.120 And the Senate is deliberately elected under a different system for the purpose of

00:28:52.540 getting a somewhat different result so that one will hold the other accountable.

00:28:57.180 So the backup plan has to be, regardless of what happens in the lower house, the backup

00:29:01.060 plan has to be to install at least one good freedom-friendly senator in every single state

00:29:07.120 in Australia, which means that we'll get six senators that are decent up.

00:29:11.460 And in an ideal world, in a perfect world, they will hold the balance of power between the 0.56

00:29:16.780 Liberal National Coalition and the Greens-Labour Alliance.

00:29:20.400 If we can hold the balance of power in the Senate with good, freedom-loving people, one

00:29:25.380 of two things will happen.

00:29:26.940 Either they will be able to block bad legislation because the major voting blocs, the majors won't

00:29:32.140 support each other, and they will become the deciding factor, which means they have to

00:29:35.500 be negotiated with, which means they've got leverage.

00:29:37.480 They can improve legislation.

00:29:39.940 Or, that's the happy version.

00:29:42.460 That's the Pollyanna version. 0.99

00:29:44.960 The ugly version, but potentially necessary version, is that because whoever holds government

00:29:50.560 can't get their legislation through, they forego negotiating with the crossbench with these

00:29:55.100 good minor party senators, and they go straight to the other major party.

00:29:59.500 They actually admit to the public, for the first time, that they have a lot more in common

00:30:04.280 with each other than what they have with the good, decent, freedom-loving politicians and

00:30:09.640 senators that we have.

00:30:10.840 Now, that's a trickier thing because they'll hold a lot of power by doing that, and they'll

00:30:13.840 be able to ram through a very bad agenda.

00:30:16.280 But people like you and I will be able to use that to really amplify our message and say,

00:30:20.180 hey, see, we've been telling you for so long.

00:30:22.680 These are different cheeks of the same ass, different wings of the same bird. 0.74

00:30:25.400 So, I don't care whether you're being stomped on by a left boot or a right boot, I just don't

00:30:28.840 want you to be stomped on by a boot.

00:30:30.640 And they will kind of be letting the mask slip if they have to resort to that.

00:30:34.980 But whichever of those options they go for, it starts by us installing really good senators.

00:30:39.720 And that means getting behind these good minor parties that have a track record of being

00:30:44.120 freedom-friendly and supporting human rights and the rights of Australians, and making sure

00:30:48.680 that they can get some electoral success in the Senate.

00:30:51.800 Yep, and that's what, I think that's always been the aim.

00:30:56.540 Why is it so much easier for these minor parties to successfully put people up in the Senate

00:31:04.360 as opposed to the lower house?

00:31:07.000 Great question.

00:31:07.620 So, this comes down to the way it was designed.

00:31:09.100 So, this is on purpose.

00:31:10.440 Think of the lower house as you are electing the politician that is going to represent your

00:31:15.100 area.

00:31:16.180 And think of the Senate.

00:31:17.220 This isn't quite, this isn't the language that they use, but I think it's a useful shorthand.

00:31:20.940 Think of the Senate as selecting the politician that best represents your ideas and ideals.

00:31:27.180 Right?

00:31:27.420 So, one is geographic, the other is ideological.

00:31:30.920 And so, being geographic in the lower house, you need a majority.

00:31:34.940 Well, that means that someone with 45% support in the local community isn't the local representative.

00:31:40.520 45% of the local population is stuck with a local representative that they feel doesn't

00:31:45.680 represent them or their worldview or their ideas or their ideology.

00:31:48.440 So, they specifically designed the Senate.

00:31:51.060 So, there are 12 Senate seats per state.

00:31:53.800 And they do a double election.

00:31:55.980 And again, it was deliberately designed that way.

00:31:57.880 That's a bit of a dampener on the rate of change.

00:32:01.520 So, that manias and fads can't take over politics in a single election.

00:32:05.820 It takes a little bit longer.

00:32:06.740 And with six seats per state up for election in any given election, what they do is they

00:32:12.900 take the vote of the entire state and they divide it by six.

00:32:16.020 And that's all you need to become a senator is instead of a majority, you only need one

00:32:20.180 sixth of the overall vote.

00:32:22.020 That means that any ideology that is represented by, let's say, 10, 15% or representative of,

00:32:27.960 sorry, 10, 15% of the population, they can't get a lower house representative elected,

00:32:31.980 but they can get a senator and that allows their ideas and their voice to have a role

00:32:37.680 in parliament, even though they may not be a majority anywhere in the country.

00:32:42.720 Now, I think we need to get to the juicy stuff.

00:32:46.120 Predictions.

00:32:47.080 What do you think is going to actually happen?

00:32:49.880 We won't hold you to it unless you're wrong.

00:32:52.020 I do think Dutton will get up.

00:32:58.560 You do.

00:32:59.500 I do.

00:33:00.180 I do think Dutton will get up.

00:33:02.000 I think the level of fatigue and frustration that people have with wokeness, with cost of

00:33:09.100 energy, ultimately, the single biggest factor in every single election, you can forget whatever

00:33:14.540 the pundits and media tell you, the biggest single factor in every single election is the

00:33:19.300 economy.

00:33:20.080 That's it.

00:33:20.540 Cost of living, do I feel like life is better or life is worse?

00:33:24.560 And the vast majority of Australians right now feel like life is worse.

00:33:27.800 And that really does hang as an albatross around Albanese's neck. 1.00

00:33:31.080 He did that to himself, making grand promises about making electricity cheaper.

00:33:34.560 And then we've just watched electricity get more and more expensive.

00:33:37.560 A lot of people are hurting right now.

00:33:39.280 And that's going to hurt him at the polls.

00:33:41.240 The other thing to keep in mind is the same reason why.

00:33:44.080 So like you with the recent Trump election, I was in the US actually with my wife in 2016

00:33:49.280 before he got elected the first time.

00:33:51.460 And it was really interesting because it's the first time I got to watch a thing called

00:33:56.060 self-selection bias in real time.

00:33:59.020 So what would happen is we'd be out there traveling.

00:34:00.820 We'd travel to a bunch of different states in literally every corner of that continent.

00:34:03.960 And we'd go to a diner and we would be eating in.

00:34:07.520 And within two minutes of our arrival, the waitress would have found a way to tell us that

00:34:12.920 she's voting for Hillary or that she's a Hillary Clinton supporter. 0.96

00:34:15.820 Or you would interact with people down the street, various just random things.

00:34:19.200 And they would find a way to squeeze it in there.

00:34:22.160 No one ever did that to tell us that they were supporting Trump.

00:34:25.380 But we noticed that lots of people didn't do anything, one way or the other.

00:34:29.080 But no one was doing it saying, hey, I'm voting for Trump.

00:34:31.240 So we made a game out of it.

00:34:32.500 And we would begin to, if someone hadn't said anything, after a little while we'd be like,

00:34:35.740 hey, we're from Australia.

00:34:36.840 We really don't know what's going on.

00:34:38.320 This whole Trump-Hillary thing seems pretty crazy from our perspective.

00:34:41.480 What are you thinking?

00:34:42.380 What's really going on here?

00:34:43.980 And I kid you not, they would lean in and do a head check to make sure that they didn't

00:34:49.220 have to talk very loud and that no one else could hear them.

00:34:51.980 And they would say, actually, I'm thinking I'm going to vote for Donald Trump.

00:34:54.640 Now, what that told us very clearly was self-selection bias.

00:35:00.680 The people who wanted to vote for Hillary wanted you to know that they were going to

00:35:04.260 vote for Hillary. 1.00

00:35:05.220 The people that were going to walk into the privacy of that polling booth and vote for

00:35:08.120 Donald Trump were not going to advertise the fact.

00:35:10.920 Now, what that means is that every single opinion poll, every single poll that's being

00:35:14.740 done by phone, every single circle of friendship, the way you're just having casual conversation

00:35:20.800 is going to give you a really unrepresentative sample, because only the people of one persuasion

00:35:26.060 are going to open their mouths and speak up.

00:35:27.640 You get a phone call from a pollster who says, hey, I want to talk to you about your political

00:35:30.820 opinions.

00:35:31.740 The person who was planning on voting for Donald Trump is going, oh, too busy.

00:35:35.440 Hang on.

00:35:36.140 The pollster never gets an answer from them.

00:35:38.220 And so I could see what I did.

00:35:39.600 I didn't know what the true answer was, what the true polling was, but I knew that the

00:35:43.060 polling wasn't true.

00:35:44.240 I knew that it wasn't representative of what was really going on.

00:35:46.960 And so by the time I got back from the US, I predicted online very boldly and very loudly

00:35:52.440 in 2016, Donald Trump is going to win this.

00:35:54.820 I think he's got a clear margin.

00:35:56.060 And in the end, actually, I thought he was going to win it by more than he did.

00:36:00.220 And I suspect without some fraud, he probably would have won it by more than he did.

00:36:03.540 But that's a conjecture.

00:36:06.360 So I think the same thing's happening here, where there is still a hangover from wokeness.

00:36:11.660 A lot of people are sick of it.

00:36:12.920 They're not going to support it.

00:36:13.880 They're not going to vote for it.

00:36:14.700 They're not going to give into it.

00:36:15.520 But they're not yet ready to speak out and sort of nail their flag to the mast of the

00:36:19.720 anti-woke shit.

00:36:21.100 And that means that the polls are still not representative.

00:36:23.420 We're still being berated by the media that Labor is better.

00:36:26.720 Dutton is evil.

00:36:27.680 We should be afraid of nuclear.

00:36:29.100 All this sort of stuff is still coming out of the mainstream media.

00:36:31.720 And so that means that people aren't being honest yet.

00:36:34.860 And I don't think the polls are honest, but I think the betting markets are more accurate.

00:36:37.940 So put all of that together.

00:36:39.540 That's why I think we are going to see a Dutton win.

00:36:41.660 A Dutton minority government, I actually think, is exceptionally unlikely.

00:36:47.320 Wow.

00:36:47.780 Because you think that it's more likely a Dutton majority.

00:36:52.800 Doesn't he have to win, though?

00:36:54.960 How many?

00:36:55.460 Because isn't he like 19 down at the moment?

00:36:58.240 Like that.

00:36:59.860 Now, the teals are on the nose.

00:37:01.700 Their own hypocrisy has found them out.

00:37:03.540 People are sick and tired of their moral.

00:37:04.980 And those were liberal.

00:37:05.840 Those were a lot of them were liberal seats, weren't they?

00:37:07.840 A lot of them were liberal seats.

00:37:09.040 That's what the teals were all about.

00:37:10.240 They were going to take liberal seats.

00:37:11.820 And they were looking for the liberal voters with an environmental conscience.

00:37:14.740 That's where their color came from.

00:37:16.160 In between blue and green.

00:37:17.420 I think, actually, the honest thing is that they are Labor voters in between Labor and the Greens.

00:37:23.860 And actually, their color should be brown.

00:37:25.440 They should be wearing brown shirts, not heel ones, if you understand the historical reference there.

00:37:31.300 So they are on the nose.

00:37:33.940 And Mike Cannon-Brooks and the people that have funded them are on the nose for various legitimate reasons.

00:37:39.200 Their own hypocrisy has really come to the fore.

00:37:41.780 People are sick and tired of the moral preening from a lot of these people.

00:37:44.940 People are sick and tired of friendly, not friendly Geordie's, of what's his name?

00:37:50.280 Not purple pingers.

00:37:51.820 I can't think of his name.

00:37:52.900 Punter's politics.

00:37:53.980 And he's very clearly in their corner.

00:37:56.620 He hates it when people call him out for that.

00:37:58.400 But it's very odd.

00:37:59.920 I'm in the libertarian's corner.

00:38:01.400 It's not wrong to have an opinion and be in the public eye.

00:38:04.560 That's completely fine.

00:38:05.380 But just be honest about it.

00:38:06.380 Just actually acknowledge that it's real and that it's there because we can all see it.

00:38:10.300 But that's on the nose.

00:38:11.660 People are sick and tired of that.

00:38:12.660 So I think actually a number of the teal seats are going to return to the Liberal Party.

00:38:17.080 I think that if you look at some of the swings in some by-elections and if you look at the level of frustration amongst working class Australians, let's not forget, Labour represents the working class.

00:38:27.220 Now, not anymore, of course.

00:38:28.160 They're supposed to, yeah.

00:38:29.640 That's their brand.

00:38:30.360 And it is becoming increasingly unmistakably obvious that they don't do that in reality.

00:38:36.240 And their followers are becoming really rapidly disenfranchised.

00:38:39.660 Now, the interesting thing about them is that they're not likely to go Liberal because the dyed-in-the-wool working class blue-collar Australians aren't. 0.61

00:38:47.460 Although the self-employed tradies can because they start to view themselves these days more as business people.

00:38:52.420 But actually, a lot of the dyed-in-the-wool production line working Labour voters, when they leave the Labour Party, are actually going to break in favour of One Nation.

00:39:01.420 Because actually, if you look at One Nation policies, that is kind of old school Labour.

00:39:05.620 A little bit of protectionism for the worker, stick-it-to-the-man kind of attitude that One Nation has.

00:39:10.720 So I actually think they're going to do quite well in this election amongst that particular demographic.

00:39:15.540 I'm actually reasonably optimistic.

00:39:17.100 And look, these things are always fraught with danger.

00:39:19.180 I could look like an absolute goose come election night.

00:39:22.140 But I actually think...

00:39:22.840 And doing it on this show means you're really willing to test it.

00:39:26.420 Because you know afterwards we're going to publish it and republish it and tag you and cross-post it.

00:39:32.100 There's no getting away from this position.

00:39:34.160 It's going to become a new merch line for you, isn't it?

00:39:36.080 My face and my prediction.

00:39:37.240 And you know what, I say good on you for doing it.

00:39:41.360 Because I could tell you this.

00:39:43.640 During the last election, when I was doing my tour in America, I sat on...

00:39:48.280 And maybe it's easier as an Aussie because you don't feel like you have to...

00:39:52.020 Like putting your name to it is not putting your entire career on the line.

00:39:55.800 But I like went on Tim Pool and I was literally...

00:39:59.940 I went on a few show, but I think Tim Pool was like the biggest one that, you know, asked anyone what anyone says.

00:40:05.720 And I'm sitting on a table with all conservatives.

00:40:11.120 And they could not say...

00:40:13.080 I go, dude, I've been out on your streets.

00:40:15.200 I don't...

00:40:15.980 I admit, I don't understand how your system fully functions.

00:40:21.360 However, based on the vibe of the streets in which people do not know where I stand.

00:40:29.200 In fact, if people had to guess, because no one knows me there, on the street, it was like if they had to guess, based on identity politics, they assumed I would be a Kamala kind of supporter.

00:40:41.600 And the vibe was totally Trump.

00:40:45.140 And there was a little bit of what you described, but I think it got to a point in this last election, at least one-on-one, many people were happier to say, whether they were happy to say Trump or at least happy to condemn Kamala and Biden.

00:41:01.960 And so for me, it was really easy to sit there and go, nah, this is 100% Trump.

00:41:07.780 I do not see how this can go any other way.

00:41:09.820 In fact, I think I may have even said that I think that he's going to win the popular vote.

00:41:13.400 And I know I did interviews here on Tom Elliott and that was...

00:41:16.900 I go, anyone in Australia, any of these commentators that are giving you their expert opinion that Kamala is going to win this are delusional or just lying.

00:41:28.880 Because if you're here on the street, it's not...

00:41:30.720 So I do give you respect for taking it.

00:41:32.980 And on one hand, I'm a little bit conflicted because I do want the chance to mock you and mock you hard, especially because I am unwilling to take a bet.

00:41:45.120 In fact, if I had to make a bet today, I'm scaredly going to say Labor minority and that it is my biggest fear in the world.

00:42:00.120 And maybe I'm just looking at the last six months or whatever it's been of election and I've gone, we've had too many wins.

00:42:08.640 Like, the Trump win was too good.

00:42:11.560 I can't see at home there being...

00:42:15.640 I can understand where you're coming from.

00:42:17.440 But let me throw a few more little data points at you just to get you inside my line of thinking a little bit more.

00:42:22.860 Notice how in the budget, there was very little that was unexpected.

00:42:26.500 They threw a very small tax decrease in the lowest tax bracket at us.

00:42:31.480 One percentage point for next year and another percentage point for the year after.

00:42:35.400 That'll save a small amount of money for Australians.

00:42:37.040 But besides that, we already knew everything that was inside that budget.

00:42:42.260 Now, what that is indicative of, in my opinion, is that they have been pre-leaking basically everything because they're desperate for some good news.

00:42:50.860 They're desperate for a bounce in the polls.

00:42:52.540 They're desperate for something, anything.

00:42:54.600 In American politics, I talk about the October surprise because their elections are in November.

00:42:58.420 I talk about there's going to be some big story is going to just drop some bombshell that's going to change everything.

00:43:02.640 I don't think Labor have an October surprise up their sleeve for this election.

00:43:07.040 They've already shot their shots.

00:43:09.140 We already know where they stand on basically everything.

00:43:11.700 All they can do now is throw more money at ever, ever decreasing problems.

00:43:18.340 And I don't see that working enough with the Australian, when Australians are suffering under the cost of government already, when that's already increasingly people are recognising that that's the problem.

00:43:27.300 Throwing more money at problems doesn't win votes the way that it has in the past.

00:43:31.100 So I think that where Labor are at right now is as good as it gets for them.

00:43:36.580 I don't think they're not what it takes.

00:43:38.360 That'll be easy to see over the next two, three weeks, whether they start falling back.

00:43:45.460 And I think you do make a good point.

00:43:46.580 I think Aussies look at it and, you know, I see the reactions, whether online or even listening, you know, to talk back radio, whatever you hear people saying, well, hold on.

00:43:58.140 Okay.

00:43:58.360 So now you're throwing this money, but where were you the last three years?

00:44:02.540 A great example was just today I was listening to 3AW and I heard the transport minister or whatever talking about, you know, the funding now that they're going to give to all these different Victorian infrastructure projects.

00:44:20.640 And we're like, and, and I was listening to her interview at first and she's basically blaming 10 years of Liberal Party management from before Labor as to why it's not all done.

00:44:33.640 And the callbacks following that was just like, wait, hold on a second.

00:44:38.080 You guys have had, you've literally been in charge of the entire country, state and federally for at least three years now, forget about Victoria's, how long Victoria's been a Labor Party, but state and federal, you've been in charge for three good years.

00:44:55.980 You've had three years to make these pledges.

00:44:58.880 In fact, you've had three years to make the pledges and carry out your, your promises, but you haven't.

00:45:05.320 And now suddenly a month before the election, which it looks like you may lose, suddenly you're giving us these promises.

00:45:13.580 I don't think people are buying that.

00:45:15.660 So there's a funny thing that happens.

00:45:17.260 Let me, let me make a sideways remark here and then I'll bring it back on topic.

00:45:21.560 I promise.

00:45:22.480 Have you ever had a movie that you've got all this nostalgia about how amazing the special effects were or how scary it was?

00:45:28.600 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:45:30.320 And then 20 years later, you go back and watch it again and you're like, really?

00:45:33.820 I got sucked in by that load of crap.

00:45:38.100 Okay.

00:45:38.900 Now, what you're observing there in real time is the training of your eye and the training of your understanding of plot devices, of special effects, of twists in stories.

00:45:51.460 And the bar is being raised constantly.

00:45:53.800 And the special effects that worked 20 years ago don't work anymore.

00:45:56.680 Why?

00:45:56.980 Because the audience is more sophisticated now.

00:45:59.380 Now, one of the interesting things that's happening, thanks to people like yourself, and I'll give myself some partial credit as well and others, as we are working tirelessly bringing things like this to the Australian voting public, the voting public are becoming more sophisticated.

00:46:13.500 It is much more difficult for the politicians to make these cheap throwaway promises and get the sugar hit in the polls that they used to be able to get because audiences are thinking more critically now.

00:46:24.140 They're no longer making the decisions based off 15-second soundbites in the nightly news.

00:46:28.240 They're sitting down and listening to podcasts and more in-depth discussions.

00:46:31.180 And it's not that they have to hear us talk about it in order to change their mind.

00:46:35.980 No.

00:46:36.460 Their skills are being sharpened.

00:46:38.020 Their perception is being honed.

00:46:39.820 The special effects that worked 20 years ago don't work on them anymore.

00:46:44.260 And for me, it's a really exciting time because this phenomenon is only going to accelerate.

00:46:48.240 And I can foresee a future where the Australian public becomes sophisticated enough to support a Javier Millet-type figure, someone who, if you look at what he was promising in Argentina, these are all the things that would have led to political failure 20 years ago in Argentina.

00:47:04.240 Because he's promising to cut spending.

00:47:06.180 He's saying people are going to lose their jobs.

00:47:07.940 He's saying welfare programs are going to get slashed.

00:47:10.180 He's making those promises, and he gets a massive popular vote and popular support.

00:47:13.680 And that popularity continues to this day.

00:47:16.260 How did that happen?

00:47:17.120 Well, the audience became sophisticated.

00:47:19.820 The voting public in Argentina became sophisticated.

00:47:22.300 And so as people like you and I keep doing what we're doing, I think we're going to see more and more.

00:47:26.100 These promises and these old tricks just don't work.

00:47:29.560 On that note, Topher, thanks so much for joining us today.

00:47:32.840 Where can people find you?

00:47:34.880 Well, at Topher Field on all the socials.

00:47:36.960 Good People Break Bad Laws is my website.

00:47:39.500 So goodpeoplebreakbadlaws.com.

00:47:41.060 You can grab all my merch and my books there.

00:47:43.280 But look, it's always a pleasure, Avi.

00:47:44.720 Keep up the great work.

00:47:45.640 And look, I look forward to the day when I hear the good news that you finally winds up and moved out of Victoria.

00:47:52.620 Thanks, mate.

00:47:53.280 I hope you enjoyed that interview as much as I did that podcast.

00:47:59.540 To be honest, go and follow Topher.

00:48:02.260 I think he's a fantastic resource about a lot of issues, but specifically around elections.

00:48:08.420 And I think he's intellectually honest, which gives me hope because if he's reading the room and he's seeing that a Dutton minority, or he thinks more likely a Dutton majority, which either of them are just so much better than what we have right now.

00:48:28.020 So it does give me some sort of hope.

00:48:29.980 I don't think it's going to be a Dutton majority.

00:48:32.200 I think it's going to be a minority.

00:48:33.500 But hey, he would have.

00:48:36.400 I would trust his guess.

00:48:38.180 I'd put more money on him being right than me.

00:48:41.060 Anyways, let's look at some of your comments from the week.

00:48:43.020 Like we do now at the end of each episode.

00:48:45.920 We go through some of the stories that I posted in the previous week and read some of your comments because as a Rebel News Plus subscriber, you can get involved in the conversations and that's exactly what I want.

00:48:56.940 Please get involved in the conversations and I'll answer you here.

00:49:01.260 I might actually start getting involved in some of the comments.

00:49:04.660 I just don't have times.

00:49:05.620 I remember to look at some of the comments and get involved in the conversation every time I do this at the end of the Yemeni report each week.

00:49:16.440 But I do really mean to get involved in the conversations via the comments.

00:49:19.880 Look, I don't even get involved in the conversations in most of my posts online.

00:49:23.960 So it's nothing against the side.

00:49:25.580 But I really want to invest in our community, in our little space of like-minded people that care about the country.

00:49:33.160 And also those of you that invest in what we're doing in Rebel News and specifically Rebel News Australia in my work by subscribing, but also getting involved.

00:49:47.680 So one of the stories we were talking about was council pulls funding after River to the Sea composer goes on an anti-Israel rant, which was a surprising welcome little bit of news that finally somebody's standing up.

00:50:00.300 And Bruce, Bruce, who gets involved in most of our conversations, Bruce, I love you.

00:50:06.100 Thank you for getting involved.

00:50:07.340 How revolting this woman is clearly a useful idiot bigot. 1.00

00:50:12.300 Jews have the right to live without harassment.

00:50:14.320 Anti-Semitism has no place in any civilized country.

00:50:17.660 Absolutely agree.

00:50:18.680 And she is so clearly like every leftist, greeny leftist, that for some reason, those that are protesting against Israel suddenly have gone radio silent when people within the Palestinian territories, both in Gaza and in the West Bank, are rallying against Hamas. 0.83

00:50:40.840 These guys are not doing it because they don't care about Palestinians.

00:50:43.400 They just hate Jews. 0.74

00:50:44.880 So you're right there, Bruce.

00:50:45.960 The other story that we broke last week, police do nothing as anti-Israel protesters threaten, harass and attack.

00:50:54.080 In fact, police did do something.

00:50:56.060 The headline's not quite right, but it's very hard sometimes to get the headline to fully capture the full story because police actually did do something.

00:51:04.700 They moved on the victims of the death threats, the harassment, the attacks, the robbery.

00:51:13.400 They did.

00:51:14.660 But there was a pretty shocking video there where there was a threat to kill, which now, thankfully, thanks to our viral reporting, even though it was done right in front of police, police have finally, a week after, well, a few days after our story went viral, they have finally opened an investigation.

00:51:33.180 Again, like it happened in front of police, and we're working with that victim to ensure that justice is served.

00:51:40.140 And that's why we're telling people to sign that petition at protectthejews.com.au, is it?

00:51:45.700 I think, because it shouldn't be a viral video that makes the police do the job.

00:51:52.660 You know, if somebody breaks the law in front of police, police should automatically enforce the law.

00:51:58.840 Some of the comments we had here, again, Bruce, as usual, thank you, Bruce, for getting involved.

00:52:06.560 Typical 2-2 policing again, and it happens all over the Western world, which is true. 0.90

00:52:11.880 You see that in the UK a lot.

00:52:13.460 Look at Tommy Robinson, for example.

00:52:14.600 These pissy Palestinians can shout all sorts of death threats, and those charged with protecting citizens, just stand and watch, which is exactly what we saw in that video. 1.00

00:52:25.480 But if some citizen dares to object, they get pepper sprayed, which is what we saw in that video.

00:52:30.960 This will only end badly, absolutely.

00:52:34.380 Sooner or later, somebody will murder a Jewish counter-protester.

00:52:38.120 And I'd like to point out that that protester, he was an Australian patriot.

00:52:40.920 He was not a Jew. 0.99

00:52:41.620 So you can see our follow-up report with him from yesterday.

00:52:47.360 Will the police act, or will they drag their flat feet?

00:52:51.340 We're ensuring that they don't drag their flat feet. 0.99

00:52:53.500 They will act.

00:52:54.720 But that's thanks to you guys for helping us do what we do here at Rebel News.

00:52:59.360 But it shouldn't come to that.

00:53:00.180 Like I said, they should just do their job.

00:53:01.640 I'll try to enlarge the screen.

00:53:02.880 Sorry, so the comments come up bigger on the screen.

00:53:07.020 Daniel, Vic Polly is not only a toothless tiger.

00:53:10.440 It's a shit, it's shit-scare to take action against the vermin living within us 1.00

00:53:14.680 and brazenly breaking many anti-hate and excitement of violence laws

00:53:22.280 metres away from Victoria Police officers.

00:53:26.400 Worse, the Allen government has done nothing to instruct, empower, or support the Vic poll

00:53:31.920 to remove the trash from our streets, enjoying the last two years in office to sin to Allen.

00:53:37.620 And think about moving interstate.

00:53:40.120 If they take you, you are as wanted by most Victorians as dictator Dan.

00:53:45.800 Don't mention the war.

00:53:46.900 I mean, Bundelong.

00:53:49.260 Victoria stands with Bundelong residents and will treat you as they have demonstrated

00:53:54.780 is appropriate for the worst of the leaders in our country.

00:53:58.780 Look, I think that there are a lot of Victorians that are super angry about the last couple

00:54:03.860 of years.

00:54:04.460 And remember, these same leaders, Jacinta Allen, who was the deputy at the time, and Dan Andrews,

00:54:12.820 they had no problem in dealing with protesters when it was protesters against, people protesting

00:54:21.280 against the overreach and now proven abuse of power during the COVID era, when police had

00:54:31.740 no problem taking on hundreds of, you know, thousands, tens of thousands of protesters.

00:54:37.740 But in the last two years, they've gone soft and suddenly they can't handle a few hundred

00:54:43.020 extremists or even thousands of extremists who have taken our city hostage.

00:54:47.880 Frank says, Australia, Canada's sister country.

00:54:54.100 We are in so many ways and this story is just one of them.

00:54:57.980 We've seen similar videos from Canada.

00:55:02.380 Billboard Chris fined $806 after being threatened with arrest in Brisbane.

00:55:07.020 Again, I think he was technically actually arrested because I looked into the legality of

00:55:11.060 it.

00:55:11.320 I've looked at it for my own personal dramas previously.

00:55:15.560 If police detain you, you are technically under arrest.

00:55:20.320 If you can't, if they're forcing you away, which they did, they forced him to move on.

00:55:25.760 But then he was just charged $806.

00:55:28.540 He was fined $806.

00:55:31.080 Billboard Chris is an absolute legend.

00:55:33.040 Comes to Australia and is literally showing, well, he's fighting out at the moment in court

00:55:37.420 this week for our freedom of speech against the E-Karen, the E-Safety Commissioner.

00:55:44.500 He's taken on that fight and then also taking on local governments, local council that was

00:55:50.940 in Brisbane who think that they can just move him on because they don't like his sign, essentially.

00:55:56.600 And watch that whole video.

00:55:57.840 You think it's anything different.

00:55:58.720 Put Australia on the no-fly list.

00:56:03.320 Put this ex-T-shirt social parlour rumble.

00:56:06.800 People should know the danger there if they go there.

00:56:10.100 Good for tourists.

00:56:11.320 Australia, the first province of China.

00:56:14.700 I do seem to agree with some of what you're saying, the sentiment there.

00:56:18.460 But Frank, please come visit us.

00:56:20.060 Don't, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, as they say.

00:56:29.160 Wayne, Chris Elton is a man of integrity.

00:56:31.900 The world can use more people like him.

00:56:33.960 Absolutely agree on so many levels.

00:56:35.840 I've got to know Chris.

00:56:37.860 He's a legend.

00:56:39.080 He's not one of those people that do things for clout.

00:56:41.360 He doesn't change his opinions based on his audience.

00:56:44.400 I've seen people criticize his views on, let's say, the Israel-Hamas war.

00:56:50.060 And he stands firm in his beliefs.

00:56:52.700 It's not the issue he goes around fighting for.

00:56:56.620 But he makes, nobody will, he won't change his opinion to suit his audience,

00:57:04.280 which we've seen so many people do.

00:57:05.480 So when you say Chris Elton is a man of integrity, 1,000%.

00:57:10.300 Ruth says the evidence is so blatantly obvious.

00:57:14.280 Those police are parroting the completely illogical laws

00:57:17.880 should crawl into a hole and hide themselves in shame

00:57:21.180 for their utter lack of critical thinking.

00:57:23.960 It beggars belief that this is the world we live in now.

00:57:28.060 Totally, Ruth.

00:57:28.800 You're right.

00:57:30.100 And Bruce, as usual, thanks for your comment.

00:57:33.080 How typical two-tier policing seems.

00:57:35.700 The last thing in law enforcement like Orwell wrote in Animal Farm,

00:57:40.520 we find that some people are more equal than others.

00:57:45.060 And finally, the last story that I want to cover, Jacinta Ardern,

00:57:50.460 who, as you all know, was a big fan of mine

00:57:54.620 when she had me banned from New Zealand when she was the tyrant-in-chief.

00:58:00.660 Jacinta Ardern, New Zealand's dictator Dan,

00:58:02.900 lands yet another cushy globalist role.

00:58:05.580 It is insane how these people, you know, you've got to give credit to the WEF.

00:58:09.840 They certainly take care of their own.

00:58:13.020 And we had a few comments here.

00:58:14.740 Crude, forget.

00:58:16.080 Mr. Ed, this is definitely the most talented horse on earth.

00:58:21.040 No comment.

00:58:22.920 Bernard, Bruce, you beat me to a failing upward

00:58:26.060 is always what lefties like her do. 1.00

00:58:31.520 Susan, well said.

00:58:33.200 Bruce, what did Bruce say?

00:58:34.600 That was well said.

00:58:35.460 Nothing like failing upward.

00:58:38.340 This grifter is part of the left's propaganda team

00:58:40.720 to brainwash unsuspecting students in the religion of Marxism.

00:58:46.360 I call it a religion because it puts one's trust

00:58:50.840 in the continuous struggle to make reality conform to it.

00:58:55.460 Guys, thank you all for your comments

00:58:56.960 and thanks for tuning in tonight.

00:58:59.360 I hope you enjoyed the show.

00:59:01.800 God bless.

00:59:04.600 God bless you.

00:59:06.340 God bless you.

00:59:08.340 God bless!

00:59:11.340 God bless you.

00:59:17.180 God bless you.

00:59:18.360 God bless you.

00:59:22.160 God bless you.

00:59:24.540 God bless you.

00:59:25.460 God bless you.

00:59:27.020 God bless you.

00:59:28.220 God bless you.

Rebel News Podcast - April 01, 2025

AVI YEMINI ｜ Making your vote COUNT with Topher Field

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