00:10:22.360You know, I remember that from 30 years ago
00:10:23.960when I worked for Preston Manning on Parliament Hill.
00:10:26.020I remember when a conservative lobbyist from Newfoundland named Tim Powers went on CTV's panels as a conservative strategist, but he had nothing to do with the Reform Party.
00:10:38.700He was the Reform strategist, the strategist on the right.
00:10:42.620He was there really despite Preston Manning.
00:10:50.380it was just to pump up his personal brand so he could sell his lobbying services i'm not picking
00:10:56.860on tim powers i'm just giving him as an example ctv said no we think tim powers is a conservative
00:11:02.720party or then that time reform party spokesman he wasn't um but all these lobbyists go on tv
00:11:09.060so they can sell their customers on how much access and influence they have they want to show
00:11:16.600that they're being connected and powerful and so you have these lobbyists on tv and they do not
00:11:22.040support peer poly of even though they're called the conservative so you got doug ford's people
00:11:27.120you got the media you have the anti-poly of conservative lobbyists in the media so it's
00:11:32.020unanimous um a cbc lobbyist panel a global male pundit they all have the same view about peer
00:11:38.760poly of including um the one guy you might think would be on his side on the panel so it feels
00:11:43.740like conventional wisdom doesn't it since everyone agrees except everyone doesn't agree just the
00:11:49.780inside track people the regime people the parliament hill people the lobbyist people
00:11:53.640like the alberta independence people say um canada's broken stay with us for more
00:12:00.900well another week another pipeline holy smokes if announcements were the real thing we would
00:12:14.820have more pipelines than any country in the world in recent months mark carney and his new major
00:12:20.620projects office has been focusing on getting a deal in alberta so he says he even traveled to
00:12:27.040British Columbia to sit down with the obstinate and obstreperous Premier out there, David Eby,
00:12:33.240and paid him billions of dollars to turn the other cheek when Alberta proposes to put a pipeline
00:12:39.440through, even though, of course, it's the federal jurisdiction and we don't need Premier Eby's
00:12:45.180approval. I remain extremely skeptical that any of these pipeline proposals will go forward,
00:12:51.520Not just for the obvious reasons that there will most likely be a rogue judge who invents some new indigenous title to the land, that there will be, you know, any sorts of actual holdups.
00:13:05.400But I think that when the oil companies look at this, they say, yeah, that's just not the best risk adjusted rate of return.
00:13:14.120We can do better in Venezuela or even in Iran than we can do in Alberta.
00:13:21.840I sense that there will be no takers for these other than politicians who want to talk about pipeline proposals.
00:15:24.600We're going to see the government of Alberta
00:15:26.420use the heritage fund to pay for another pipeline and then we're all going to claim victory well
00:15:34.660the victory would be if the federal government unfettered the oil companies and said look you
00:15:42.660have our authorization because under the constitution we have the power to assert this
00:15:49.060through you have our authorization to go ahead and figure out what the market cost is of this
00:15:56.260pipeline and see if somebody will buy into it let's just talk for one more moment about the
00:16:02.100ontario one because right now oil does go to ontario but it sort of dips down into the u.s
00:16:09.280just that just happens to be the root and to me if i understand correctly and learn correct me if
00:16:14.520i'm wrong i think that the thesis or the rationale for this uh northern shield as they're calling it
00:16:23.200would be that it never leaves Canadian turf so it doesn't go to the states because there's some
00:16:28.900question could it be subject to political or even environmental concerns down there could they
00:16:36.160somehow block it which would cut off Ontario oil because it's Alberta oil that dips down and goes
00:16:41.640through sort of like you can drive east and west you can drive it through the states a bit instead
00:16:46.620of Canada but the likelihood of that happening I think is quite small it's not happening now
00:16:52.180this new northern shield if it were ever built would maybe be around 10 years from now no one's
00:16:58.440going to build a pipeline without a guarantee of customers which wouldn't happen if the current
00:17:03.560situation was fine it just seems like such a made-up brainstorm idea i think the obstacles
00:17:09.780to the alberta to ontario pipeline are less they're lower they're easier to overcome than
00:17:16.300and the Alberta through BC to the West Coast pipeline.
00:17:21.620There are only two provinces between Ontario and Alberta.
00:17:24.420If Ontario and Alberta want this pipeline, all they have to do is to get Saskatchewan
00:17:29.420and Manitoba to sign on Saskatchewan is basically already signed on.
00:17:34.260The wild card is Wab Canoe, the premier NDP premier in in Manitoba, but he's shown himself
00:17:41.720fairly pro-development in the time he's been in office although admittedly it's pro-development
00:17:49.640of manitoba resources i i'm not sure he's all that keen to have a pipeline go past winnipeg
00:17:56.840on its way around the great lakes in behind ontario to sarnia the big disadvantage of the
00:18:04.600Alberta-Ontario pipeline is, if you go through Saskatchewan to North Dakota, then into Minnesota,
00:18:13.320Wisconsin, and Michigan, it's about 2,700 miles. If you go around the Great Lakes,
00:18:19.880it's closer to 3,400 miles. The reason that that pipeline went through where it did in the 1950s,
00:18:27.360it was the most direct and efficient route. And all the states along the route, they were quite
00:18:33.240happy for the development pipelines are not that intrusive yeah you know there's maybe there's a
00:18:40.680quarter of a mile or a half of a mile of sort of a right away where the pipeline is but basically
00:18:47.580once you got them up especially if they're buried you don't see them you don't hear them they you
00:18:53.660know they they don't spew anything out unless there's a leak and and so you can make them very
00:19:00.780safe. You can make them very quiet and visible. And that's why in the 50s, people said, yeah,
00:19:07.560sure, sure, run through our state. Then you get Gretchen Whitmer, who is a sort of ultra green1.00
00:19:14.400Democrat who became the governor of Michigan. And she started making up excuses why the Enbridge0.98
00:19:22.020pipeline that goes under the Straits of Mackinac in northern Michigan was this huge environmental
00:19:28.860risk. It was a terrible threat to the Great Lakes. And so she started fighting in court
00:19:36.760with Enbridge that they should not be able to build a new tunnel or a new bridge for this
00:19:44.160pipeline. And they have been in court since I think it's 2020, it might be 2021, but they've
00:19:50.520been in court for a very long time. And I'm kind of, I'm kind of worried that Enbridge is going
00:19:59.400to lose. They, the Supreme Court of the US ruled that Enbridge had taken too long to move this case
00:20:06.420to federal court, where it would have gotten a more favorable hearing. So now it has to go to
00:20:11.620the state Supreme Court in Michigan, and they could easily withdraw the permits for the pipeline,
00:20:18.720And then you're humped. So that's one of the reasons I think behind Ford's interest in the Northern Shield is that well over half of Ontario's home heating fuel at natural gas comes from Alberta.
00:20:37.780And it goes through this pipeline, which is called Line 3, to Sarnia, where Ontario has its big refineries.
00:20:46.940And they then use it to make propane, jet fuel, gasoline, all those sorts of things that Ontarians need.
00:20:55.660If it was suddenly cut off, the Ontarians would be in real trouble because they don't import, can't import as much foreign oil as Quebec does.
00:22:18.080You know, 20 years ago, there was no controversy about pipelines, none.
00:22:26.320In fact, I recall reading the Canadian regulatory review on the Canadian side of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, and I think there was a grand total of one people who was not actually involved with one member of the public who had something to say.
00:24:44.060you know the whole thing is very depressing um i saw in the news that i think it was united
00:24:49.600arab emirates wanted to invest billions of dollars and mark carney's major projects office
00:24:54.640says we're not ready to accept the money ready um i don't really know who's in the major projects
00:25:01.420office it is an additional layer of political bureaucracy that did not exist we things were
00:25:07.940built by the private sector they were built at the speed of the private sector before and
00:25:13.220And, like, what is Mark Carney even doing as an interlocutor?
00:25:17.900Like, why is he a link in the chain here?
00:25:20.760This is absolutely what the Soviets called Goss Plan, the centrally planned economy.
00:25:26.600And Mark Carney believes he's always the smartest guy in every room.
00:25:30.280Now, we're talking now about two autocratic governments, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
00:25:38.180But they have both decided they're going to build pipelines from their oil fields past the Strait of Hormuz, below the Strait of Hormuz, out to the Arabian Gulf.
00:25:50.360And it's going to take them three years.
00:26:32.780Premier Smith, the Southwell Pipeline to the U.S. is fully subscribed.
00:26:37.160It has signed contracts with so many oil producers, it will be full for the next 20 years.
00:26:41.900The Kearney Pipeline project has no customers signed up.
00:26:44.820Isn't it obvious that no one in the industry actually believes this is going to be built?
00:26:48.560Certainly not enough to put their own money into it.
00:26:51.500Well, thanks for the nice neutral question.
00:26:54.700I would say it's a bit premature to make that point.
00:26:58.260I think that what we've done with our West Coast Pipeline is announced an intention for the federal and provincial government to work together.
00:27:06.220We have to make sure that we can get all of the Indigenous consultation and ownership stake, make sure that we do the environmental approvals.
00:27:14.320And I have absolute confidence with the conversations that we've been having with the Pathways Group that we will get those commitments.
00:27:20.260Remember, you can start a pipeline with a smaller amount going through it, and then you can do compression, just like we're seeing with the Trans Mountain Pipeline.
00:27:27.400They began with a little bit of a smaller volume, but they're also increasing now up to 300,000 barrels.
00:27:34.100I think it's our job to make sure that we can expand the industry by 2 million barrels.
00:27:38.920So not only can we fill the South Bow line, we can fill the West Coast line,
00:27:42.580we can fill our new northern, what were we calling yours?
00:28:45.320Yeah, yeah, yeah. If they didn't have to pay for the pipeline, you'd have people lined up to put oil and gas and everything else in that pipeline tomorrow.
00:28:55.420Provided, of course, too, that the feds could sign off on expansion of the oil center.
00:29:01.900We have more than enough oil to fill all those pipelines, keep them all busy for years and years and years.
00:29:09.040The problems are twofold. One is no private sector company wants to pay for the pipeline itself. And the federal government still stands in the way of expanding the oil sands and expanding our production capacity.
00:29:25.840so until those are sold we are going to have trouble filling those pipelines but i think it's
00:29:31.900funny that during that question smith had to ask ford what the name of the new pipeline was because
00:29:39.960she had clearly never heard of it before never seen the proposal until that morning while they're
00:29:46.380flipping pancakes and doug says hey why don't we build a pipeline from alberta to ontario and uh
00:29:52.860and and you can fill it with oil i i still think strategically it's a not it's not a bad idea to
00:29:58.160build a pipeline around the great lakes all in canadian soil tell gretchen whitmer that she can
00:30:04.580stuff it um but uh but am i like you said i think you said at the beginning you were a cynic i wrote
00:30:13.500the other day that i started off as a cynic and i've moved up to skeptic but i'm still skeptical