Rebel News Podcast - June 18, 2025


EZRA LEVANT ｜ Israel aims to cripple regime control, foster Iranian resistance, says Dr. Daniel Pipes


Episode Stats

Length

42 minutes

Words per Minute

158.32692

Word Count

6,652

Sentence Count

515

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

79


Summary

Is Iran going to topple? And could a democracy replace it? You're ready for freedom? -Ezra LeVant, host of the Ezra Levin Show on the Rebel News Plus YouTube channel. Today's show features a feature interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum, founder of the Mideast Forum, about Iran.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hello, my friends. Feature interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum today
00:00:04.180 about Iran. Boy, are things moving quickly there. In fact, tonight, the Shah in exile of Iran,
00:00:11.780 whose father was the ruler of Iran before the Ayatollahs, he's giving a major address. I think
00:00:16.320 he will call for that country to stand up and throw off the Ayatollahs now that the regime
00:00:20.780 is being dashed by Israel so surgically from the air. Anyways, it's amazing what's happening
00:00:27.720 overseas. And it's amazing that it's being done without any American troops shedding blood. That
00:00:32.420 truly is the America first way. Before I get to the show, let me invite you to become a subscriber
00:00:38.640 to Rebel News Plus. It's the video version of the podcast. Just go to rebelnewsplus.com,
00:00:43.860 click subscribe, and there you go.
00:00:57.720 Tonight, is Iran going to topple? And could a democracy replace it? It's June 17th,
00:01:06.360 and this is The Ezra LeVant Show.
00:01:07.700 You're ready for freedom!
00:01:09.100 Shame on you, you censorious bug!
00:01:14.000 Hi, everybody. Yesterday, I recorded a feature-length interview with Dr. Daniel Pipes, the founder
00:01:28.100 of the Middle East Forum, who's a bit of an Iran expert. And we had a really good chew-over
00:01:33.020 of the subject. I'll leave that to speak for itself. But since I talked to Dr. Pipes yesterday,
00:01:39.480 interesting things have happened. For example, I understand that tonight, the in exile Shah of
00:01:46.980 Iran, the son of the former Shah, is giving an address, which I presume will be for Iranians
00:01:52.700 to rise up and throw out the Ayatollahs, who are deeply despised in that country. I don't
00:01:59.180 know if you know this, but Iran, or Persia as it's been called historically, is an ancient
00:02:03.720 civilization, very well-educated, very sophisticated. It's not some desert backwater like, say,
00:02:09.220 Afghanistan was. And when the Ayatollah came in from his exile in Paris in the 70s, he found
00:02:17.660 a modern country, pro-Western country. Women didn't have to wear hijabs or anything like
00:02:22.160 that. And he has suffocated the country. And so many Iranians have turned against the Ayatollahs.
00:02:28.520 Only about one-third of Iranians even regard themselves as religious anymore. I mean, basically,
00:02:34.320 the country despises the Sharia law. It really is the handmaid's tale in real life. Anyways,
00:02:40.360 my point is, I think the country is being wobbled by Israel. And amazingly, the United States hasn't
00:02:48.020 had to lift a finger. In fact, they just sort of got out of the way and let Israel do the heavy
00:02:52.320 lifting. Some of my friends in the America First movement don't like what's going on. They think
00:02:57.380 that this is inappropriate. But how is this not perfect America First? There's no American
00:03:01.660 boots on the ground at all. In fact, America, unlike when Joe Biden was in office, is getting
00:03:07.520 out of Israel's way when Israel makes the whole neighborhood safer. By the way, I should tell you
00:03:13.560 that Donald Trump has been against Iran getting nukes for his whole career. Let me show you a quick
00:03:20.080 video that I recorded earlier this afternoon. And then I'll get to the main interview with Daniel
00:03:26.400 Pipes. Here's a quick video I did sort of summing up the reasons why I think it is absolutely America
00:03:32.680 First to take the bombs out of Iran's hands, especially if a country like Israel will do the
00:03:38.340 heavy lifting. Take a look. Here's my five-minute video from earlier this afternoon. Hey, look at this
00:03:42.240 video from Air Force One. Donald Trump is asked about Iran. And he basically says, I'm going to let
00:03:48.760 Israel do the heavy lifting. Take a look. We have better than a ceasefire. What are you looking for here?
00:03:54.520 A real end, not a ceasefire. An end for something that will be permanent.
00:04:00.260 Yeah, or giving up entirely. That's okay, too. Are you closer? Are you possible? Is that possible in the next 24, 48 hours?
00:04:09.660 Certainly possible. Complete give up. That's possible.
00:04:15.240 Is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense drawn up plans for you if Iran were to attack U.S. bases or do any damage to U.S. bases?
00:04:25.080 I just can't do any. Can I ask you, because there's been some skepticism, is there any guarantee that if the U.S. did get involved
00:04:32.220 militarily, that a U.S. bomb could destroy Iran's nuclear program and facilities?
00:04:37.320 Everything or anything or life, you know that. Look at you. There's no guarantee. But you're saying a guarantee on what?
00:04:45.440 Do you think if the U.S. got involved militarily, it would actually wipe out Iran's nuclear program? Or where's your assessment on that?
00:04:52.580 I hope their program's going to be wiped out long before that. But they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.
00:04:59.220 What do you mean? Do you have any reason to believe the Israelis are going to slow down, or are they going to hit the accelerator right now because they've got the priority to have over the next two days?
00:05:07.520 Are you going to find that?
00:05:08.660 Has the gang of a...
00:05:10.000 Nobody's slowed up so far.
00:05:11.720 Has the gang of a been notified about what's coming in the next couple days?
00:05:15.500 We'll be talking to them.
00:05:16.960 What can you do? It's not necessary.
00:05:18.340 I don't understand how Trump's position there can be criticized by my friends in America First.
00:05:27.340 I do have a lot of friends in America First who are American.
00:05:30.440 I'm a Canadian who sympathizes with that because America First makes the world a safer place, especially for freedom and democracy.
00:05:38.360 We benefit from it here in Canada, that's for sure.
00:05:40.780 Imagine if Kamala Harris or even Barack Obama were still in power.
00:05:44.300 But I want to say a few things to my MAGA friends that maybe they've forgotten.
00:05:49.180 And I know it's a bit audacious for a foreigner like me to mention it, but maybe I've got a little bit of distance because I'm not actually in the thick of it.
00:05:55.800 The first thing I'd say is, for 15 years, Donald Trump has said Iran simply cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
00:06:04.340 He has said it easily a hundred times.
00:06:07.420 Seriously, just search for the word Iran on Donald Trump's X feed and you will get countless hits.
00:06:14.420 He's been saying the same thing since long before he was in office.
00:06:18.780 Here's a quick video montage, too.
00:06:21.040 You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
00:06:24.260 Everybody stopped.
00:06:25.360 They were ready to make a deal.
00:06:26.480 We would have made a deal that was great for everybody.
00:06:28.300 No nuclear weapons.
00:06:29.200 You can't give nuclear weapons.
00:06:30.520 Now they're going to have a nuclear weapon.
00:06:31.680 Don't let Iran have nuclear weapons.
00:06:36.280 That's my only thing.
00:06:37.420 I have to tell you today, don't let them have it.
00:06:39.620 They would have never had them, including Iran.
00:06:41.740 We would have.
00:06:42.180 They can't have a nuclear weapon.
00:06:43.560 That's all.
00:06:43.920 They can't have nuclear weapons.
00:06:45.240 I wanted to make a deal with them.
00:06:46.480 No nuclear weapons.
00:06:47.360 You can't have nuclear weapons.
00:06:48.440 They cannot have a nuclear weapon.
00:06:49.800 That was the only thing.
00:06:50.860 I just didn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
00:06:52.740 I said, you know, we're going to make a great deal.
00:06:54.560 Everybody's going to be happy.
00:06:55.400 You're going to be rich as hell again.
00:06:56.800 Everything's going to be great.
00:06:58.160 Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
00:07:00.940 Very simple.
00:07:02.240 Piso, they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
00:07:04.340 But they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
00:07:06.160 I want to make a deal with Iran.
00:07:07.600 I want to do something if it's possible.
00:07:09.980 But for that to happen, it must stop sponsoring terror,
00:07:13.220 halt its bloody proxy wars,
00:07:14.960 and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
00:07:19.840 They cannot have a nuclear weapon.
00:07:21.680 So I don't think anyone who has followed Trump,
00:07:24.400 like my MAGA friends,
00:07:25.860 can possibly be surprised by Trump's position.
00:07:29.660 But let me say this.
00:07:30.980 In defense of isolationism and pacifism,
00:07:34.980 Trump engaged in good faith negotiations with Iran anyways.
00:07:39.540 Even though he said he cannot accept any other outcome other than disarmament of those nukes,
00:07:44.440 he still set aside a 60-day period where he negotiated in good faith,
00:07:50.360 during which time Trump stopped Israel from attacking Iran,
00:07:54.860 even though Iran had sent countless missiles to Israel either directly or through their proxies,
00:08:01.220 Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
00:08:03.120 Now, Iran refused to do a deal.
00:08:06.680 So on the 61st day, Trump kept his promise.
00:08:10.300 He permitted Israel to take out Iran's nuclear missile threat,
00:08:14.320 as well as the leadership of the Republican Guard Corps terrorist group,
00:08:19.740 which, by the way, just happens to benefit every other state in the region too.
00:08:24.560 Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
00:08:28.080 If you take a look, the price of oil, you'd think the price of oil would have skyrocketed in the last few days.
00:08:34.540 Israel attacked on June 13th.
00:08:36.500 Actually, oil is steady at around $75 a barrel,
00:08:39.880 which tells you the world thinks it's going to be a safer, more stable place.
00:08:45.780 There's no World War III.
00:08:47.040 And I see in Bloomberg today that Russia has confirmed they're going to sit this one out.
00:08:52.160 They've got their hands full in Ukraine right now.
00:08:54.560 They're not particularly going to come to the aid of a stumbling Iranian regime.
00:09:00.600 I think the most important thing to realize is the plainest fact of all.
00:09:05.740 There are no American boots on the ground.
00:09:08.920 And so far, Iran has shown the discipline not to fire a shot at U.S. personnel.
00:09:15.120 I have a prediction.
00:09:16.840 I think that once Iran is either neutered in its nuclear ambitions and its missile ambitions,
00:09:22.180 or if there's regime change.
00:09:24.160 By the way, that's a possibility in Iran.
00:09:26.360 It's not a desert backwater like Afghanistan.
00:09:29.900 It's not thoroughly destroyed by ISIS like Syria.
00:09:34.360 Iran is a great civilization.
00:09:36.660 It's educated.
00:09:37.640 It's modern.
00:09:38.680 And most of its people are secular.
00:09:41.160 They hate the ayatollahs.
00:09:43.280 It used to be a robust Western-oriented country that has been chafing at the Islamists who've
00:09:49.900 been running it, the cult that's been running it.
00:09:52.160 I think Iran actually has a future, and there's a person to do it.
00:09:55.000 People say, who's the George Washington in the Middle East?
00:09:57.640 Well, his name is Reza Pahlavi.
00:09:59.380 He's the son of the Shah.
00:10:01.000 That's who.
00:10:01.540 I have a prediction that no matter which way Iran goes, if it's a neutered, ayatollah-run
00:10:07.960 theocracy, or if it actually goes back to their king, I predict that there will be another
00:10:14.060 round of Abraham Accord peace treaties within a year, including Saudi Arabia and maybe even
00:10:20.180 Lebanon.
00:10:20.540 By taking out the big bully who was threatening with nukes, I think the entire region has a
00:10:27.200 new chance, and Russia and China are not interfering.
00:10:30.200 You know, for those who wonder if Iran is an enemy of America, Iran's de facto motto for
00:10:36.620 more than 40 years has been, death to America.
00:10:40.500 They call Israel the little Satan, but America is the great Satan.
00:10:44.780 Through Hezbollah, which is run by Iran, they murdered in a single attack 241 U.S. Marines
00:10:52.120 in Beirut.
00:10:53.380 Don't confuse being America first with pacifism or appeasement.
00:10:58.720 That's not what America first means, at least not to me on the outside looking in.
00:11:03.940 Hey, by the way, looking at the last week or so, what lessons do you think China and Russia
00:11:10.140 are taking?
00:11:12.120 That America is strong or weak?
00:11:15.060 That when Trump says, do a deal, you should listen or not?
00:11:19.060 I think in the last week, through Israeli military action, America has become immensely stronger,
00:11:26.740 at least in the minds of Russia and China.
00:11:29.720 Hey, listen, don't oversample extremely online Qatar-sponsored Twitter pundits.
00:11:37.320 They're not the Republican Party base.
00:11:40.540 As we saw in the Wall Street Journal expose, they're actually just on the Qatar payroll.
00:11:46.700 I admire President Trump because he's making America stronger.
00:11:51.780 He's ending wars even before they start.
00:11:55.260 I think that the whole world is safer because of it, including us here in Canada.
00:12:00.060 But for those who have been MAGA all the time, this is exactly what you voted for.
00:12:05.600 Anyways, that's my update on my interview yesterday.
00:12:09.020 So for the rest of today's show, let me present to you Dr. Daniel Pipes of the Middle East Forum.
00:12:14.020 Let me know what you think of this interview.
00:12:16.160 Last week, I said Israel's attack on Iran was so effective, so dramatic, so surprising, and so sudden
00:12:25.720 that it marked the most important geopolitical change in the region in a generation.
00:12:32.080 Maybe I was too effusive, too excited by the early results
00:12:35.640 to knock out the top leadership of the Iranian military, including the Republican Guard Corps.
00:12:42.780 The fact that the nuclear sites were damaged or destroyed.
00:12:48.540 But as the days go by, I'm more and more convinced of that.
00:12:51.280 It is true that they've managed to lob dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel,
00:12:56.320 and Israel has not knocked them all down.
00:12:58.780 And casualties, there's 40 is the latest number I've seen dead, and almost 600 wounded.
00:13:05.620 That's not nothing.
00:13:06.500 But compared to the annihilation that was in the imagination of so many in the West for
00:13:12.540 so long, it really feels miraculous, and it gives me a feeling of hope that things can
00:13:17.860 be reordered in that region.
00:13:19.520 But that's just me.
00:13:20.900 I don't have any deep sources.
00:13:23.120 I get my information the same way you do, through the Internet.
00:13:26.820 I don't have people in the military in any country that I can call for deep insight.
00:13:31.840 So when I need that insight, when I need an expert on the Middle East, I know who to go
00:13:36.200 to.
00:13:36.440 His name is Dr. Daniel Pipes.
00:13:38.780 He is the founder of the Middle East Forum, and I'm delighted to say he joins us now via
00:13:43.020 Skype from Washington, D.C.
00:13:44.820 Dr. Pipes, great to see you again.
00:13:47.140 Great to see you, Liz.
00:13:48.280 I really think this is more important than just another battle.
00:13:52.140 I really feel like for a generation, Iran has been ascendant as a regional superpower.
00:13:58.320 Obama really helped kickstart it, and it just, as it was left alone, it grew in power and
00:14:05.900 ambition, and it was like a balloon was popped.
00:14:08.820 That's how it looks and feels to me.
00:14:10.440 Am I wrong?
00:14:11.980 No, not at all.
00:14:14.680 There are generally understood to be three levels of military power.
00:14:20.040 At the top are the weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, biological, chemical.
00:14:23.560 In the middle is conventional, SIPs, planes, and tanks.
00:14:29.160 And at the bottom is irregular, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and the like.
00:14:34.680 Throughout the region, with the slight exception of Turkey, the states of the Middle East have
00:14:41.140 given up in conventional power, Iran in particular.
00:14:45.360 It has an air force that dates to the 1970s.
00:14:49.840 It was building or is building nuclear weapons.
00:14:53.420 It had a very large network of saboteurs and terrorists, jihadis.
00:15:01.800 What the Israelis have is that conventional force, huge conventional force, F-35s, real ships,
00:15:12.000 ordnance, and the like.
00:15:14.420 And what we're seeing is that the absence of conventional warfare cannot be made up for
00:15:20.840 by having Hezbollah and Hamas and building a nuclear project.
00:15:27.400 You can't survive.
00:15:30.320 Well, your program and your military can't survive if you don't have the conventional.
00:15:35.280 And as of 1967, so in 2025, the Israelis have a superlative conventional force that is just
00:15:43.700 in a different league, live in order of magnitude, from its enemies, whether it be the Egyptians
00:15:52.880 then or the Iranians today.
00:15:55.040 Today at the G7 in my home province of Alberta, Donald Trump said he thought the Israelis were
00:16:02.060 doing very well.
00:16:03.380 I think he's right.
00:16:04.900 But of course, he would have a lot more confidential information than you and I do.
00:16:09.860 I think that Israel, in my amateur view, overperformed.
00:16:16.040 They did a lot of the heavy bombing, including with bunker buster bombs, that I thought only
00:16:21.900 the Americans could do.
00:16:23.460 And I thought that Iran was so built up it would need American help.
00:16:27.380 And as you pointed out, Israel managed to do it.
00:16:30.920 Donald Trump can say to his base, some of which is isolationist, he can say, there wasn't
00:16:36.980 any boots on the ground.
00:16:38.860 We weren't quite neutral, but neither were we active in it.
00:16:43.740 Donald Trump can say, I didn't start a war, which is important to a part of his support
00:16:49.140 base, isn't it?
00:16:51.420 It is very important.
00:16:52.760 But two points.
00:16:53.600 First, the one thing the Israelis have not, as far as we know, attacked is Fardau, which
00:16:58.500 is the single most important Iranian nuclear facility.
00:17:02.100 And it is inside a mountain, and it would take more than what the Israelis have now to
00:17:08.320 destroy it.
00:17:10.220 And that would probably require American sorties, not Israeli ones.
00:17:16.300 And secondly, we don't know if the Iranians can hold back from attacking American interests,
00:17:23.060 American troops, American installations.
00:17:25.560 I think they're so convinced themselves that the United States is a paper tiger that it will
00:17:31.380 be hard to restrain, if not the top leadership, at least some of the military hierarchy, from
00:17:39.440 going ahead and attacking Americans.
00:17:41.120 So it's not over.
00:17:42.000 It could well be that the Iranians do attack Americans, and the Americans do attack Iran.
00:17:47.700 Iran is a huge country population-wise.
00:17:50.400 I think it's coming up on 100 million people.
00:17:53.880 So it's a much larger entity.
00:17:55.840 It's geographically quite large.
00:17:57.760 It's different than taking out Hezbollah, or even Hamas, or even the Houthis.
00:18:04.320 Like, it's just so large, and it's got a lot of inertia to it.
00:18:11.640 Israel's had an amazing first week, shall we say.
00:18:14.340 But as you point out, there are some hard targets that haven't been touched.
00:18:18.240 And apparently the supreme leader of Iran himself has not been targeted by Israel.
00:18:24.300 Perhaps it would be too provocative for them to assassinate him.
00:18:30.460 As Israel degrades Iran's ability to lob these missiles, as it takes out more terrorist
00:18:37.640 leaders, what happens next?
00:18:40.540 Neither America nor Israel are into regime change.
00:18:43.800 I think that has to come from Iran.
00:18:46.080 I don't think either has the force to make it happen.
00:18:49.380 I think America's out of the nation-building business.
00:18:51.380 What happens next?
00:18:53.440 Does Iran just sort of become chastened and weakened and slouch onwards?
00:18:58.660 Or is there some, like, for example, the descendants of the Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi,
00:19:04.940 is there a move to bring back the king?
00:19:07.500 What happens next?
00:19:09.780 Well, the Israelis have made it clear that their goal is not only to take out nuclear infrastructure,
00:19:15.660 but to damage the region itself.
00:19:17.940 Earlier today, the Israelis knocked out the television building in Tehran.
00:19:23.060 And indeed, there's some rather amusing footage of an anchor invading against the Zionists
00:19:30.040 and then slinging her chair as the ceiling starts to fall in on her.
00:19:35.360 So that's not about nuclear weapons.
00:19:37.980 That's about disabling the regime and encouraging the population of Iran to rise up and get rid of it.
00:19:46.760 So if you can't attack all those nuclear installations,
00:19:51.880 an alternative is to open the path for Iranians to rise up against the regime
00:19:59.020 that has dominated their lives for 46 years now.
00:20:02.700 It's also worth noting that while all of us expected the Israelis to reach the western portions of Iran,
00:20:11.260 to go through Syria and Iraq more or less unmolested and indeed be able to refuel their planes over those countries,
00:20:21.020 it comes as a real surprise to learn that the Israelis have gone so far as Mashhad.
00:20:26.500 Mashhad is at the extreme east.
00:20:28.380 It's close to the Turkmenistan and Afghanistan borders.
00:20:31.680 It is very far away from Israel.
00:20:33.820 So the Israelis have control over the entirety, what appears to be the entirety, of the Iranian airspace.
00:20:40.880 They can do what they want.
00:20:42.460 And it looks like what they want to do in addition to the nuclear facilities is knock out
00:20:46.560 the stalwart institutions of the regime, such as the media network and the police and other important regime assets.
00:20:57.540 You know, I'm in Toronto, which is a real battleground of anti-Semitism, frankly.
00:21:06.540 And Iran is on both sides of the battle.
00:21:09.760 There are Iran-funded agents provocateurs in Toronto who rally every week.
00:21:15.860 Toronto is infamous for its Al-Quds Day festivities.
00:21:19.700 But on the other hand, there's a lot of Persian Canadians who hate the Ayatollahs,
00:21:24.500 who actually show up in solidarity with the Jews.
00:21:27.100 And I think it's the same way in other Persian expat communities like in Vancouver and Los Angeles and places like that.
00:21:34.760 So Iran really has a large diaspora, many of whom fled the Ayatollah, others who were here to undermine the West.
00:21:46.620 Is there a movement among the Persian diaspora to go and try and help retake their country?
00:21:54.320 I saw a bit of that when Kurdistan was trying to become independent.
00:21:58.380 I saw sort of Kurds around the world go back home to try and help.
00:22:03.160 Is that an animating idea in Persians around the world to take back Iran?
00:22:09.740 There certainly is a considerable diaspora, which is to take advantage of this opportunity and get rid of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
00:22:24.360 There are also, as you point out, this regime allies in the West.
00:22:28.900 I can't give you a percentage breakdown.
00:22:30.560 They both seem formidable.
00:22:32.560 They both are very active.
00:22:33.560 I think you mentioned the crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.
00:22:40.120 He has emerged in the last few years as a far more serious leader than he was.
00:22:48.600 I met him some 20 years ago, 25 years ago, indeed.
00:22:52.140 And he was somewhat of a fringe figure.
00:22:54.400 Now he's important.
00:22:57.900 And he has become something of a rallying symbol.
00:23:02.320 And more than a symbol, a figure of importance in himself, somebody who can make decisions.
00:23:09.740 So I think there is a diaspora that is potentially able to – it has money, so it is able to invest.
00:23:17.420 It is able to encourage.
00:23:22.760 It is able to send messages.
00:23:25.060 There is a considerable media empire in Los Angeles beaming messages to Iran.
00:23:30.060 But, yeah, it's important.
00:23:32.700 You know, right before the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack, Rebel News went on sort of a fact-finding mission in Israel and the United Arab Emirates to see for ourselves how the Abraham Accords were taking root.
00:23:47.820 And frankly, I have to tell you, I was very touched by it on an emotional level because it felt so real.
00:23:53.100 It wasn't just a dry piece of paper.
00:23:55.400 It felt genuine, and I had never been to the United Arab Emirates before, and I was quite convinced.
00:24:02.580 And when the disastrous anti-Semitic terrorist attack happened on October 7, part of my thinking was this is designed to derail the larger peace project of the Abraham Accords.
00:24:14.400 And I think it did certainly stress that.
00:24:16.400 But over the last week, it seems to me, other than some perfunctory statements by, say, the crown prince in Saudi Arabia, if you look at the actual actions from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, or just the silence from, let's say, Syria, it looks like the region is on Israel's side.
00:24:39.320 And I think that, in my own mind, this clears away the largest barrier towards peace and prosperity in the region.
00:24:50.880 I don't know.
00:24:51.840 I'm having a little bit of that hopefulness come back in that I felt when I visited Dubai.
00:24:56.460 Well, the Israelis cleared the way for the Syrians to get rid of Bashar al-Assad in December.
00:25:07.420 They are now opening the path with the Iranians.
00:25:09.800 It would be astonishing if, within months of each other, two of Israel's worst enemies are overthrown by dint of Israel's response to October 7.
00:25:21.300 And, you know, the Middle East is full of surprises, and nobody saw this coming.
00:25:28.260 And yet it is now a reality.
00:25:30.300 And should the regime in Iran fall?
00:25:33.780 This is a new era in the Middle East.
00:25:35.920 It has been the Iranians who have been driving the politics of the Middle East now for close to half a century.
00:25:42.560 They've also been driving the Islamism around the world.
00:25:45.740 Now, granted, they're Shia and not Sunni, but still, they have supported Sunni forces such as Hamas and others.
00:25:55.380 And they have been the powerhouse of the Islamist propaganda.
00:26:02.780 And should the regime fall, this would be enormous for the Middle East and beyond, for the Islamic world.
00:26:08.500 You know, Saudi Arabia in recent years has become more moderate.
00:26:13.480 They really have.
00:26:14.380 And I say that, I'm not going to say grudgingly, but I say that cautiously.
00:26:18.900 Like, I wouldn't, I would be the last to say that, not the first.
00:26:22.300 But I believe it's happened.
00:26:24.380 Sure.
00:26:24.580 I think that with Saudi Arabia's new Western moderate agenda, and if Iran is changed, I think that the whole world will see less radicalism, less funding of radicalism, less direction of radicalism.
00:26:39.960 It feels so hopeful.
00:26:40.820 And in the backdrop is the Palestinian cause, which I think was often used as a distraction or a projection of Iran and Saudi Arabia for their own reasons.
00:26:54.860 I saw a headline, I didn't look deeper than it, that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, says he's going to delay his proposed conference on Palestinian statehood.
00:27:03.920 I didn't read beyond the headline, so I might have been misled by that simple headline.
00:27:10.180 But that sounds about right.
00:27:12.880 To think that intransigent Palestinian leaders are now the center of the action or have the momentum when Syria and Iran are tumbling feels very obsolete immediately.
00:27:28.060 What, what's your thought on the state of, like, and it feels like a real Joe Biden initiative as opposed to a Donald Trump initiative.
00:27:35.980 What's your thoughts on, on the future of, quote, Palestine?
00:27:42.720 Well, Palestine is definitely on the margins at the moment, but Palestine always comes back and will come back again.
00:27:51.040 And it will be, you know, when things calm down, however, they do calm down, they will be returned to the Palestinian cause against Israel.
00:28:01.900 Now, should the Iranian regime fall, this will have a tremendous impact on the region and will isolate the Palestinians, will weaken the Palestinians.
00:28:13.080 Should the regime survive, then things will not have changed that much.
00:28:17.260 But in any case, the Israelis have taken an initiative, and as you correctly assess, there is much relief in the governing, in the powers of, the corridors of power throughout the region.
00:28:31.080 I would say even, I would go so far as say even in Ankara, there's probably quite some pleasure at what is taking place.
00:28:39.320 Because there are very few states that are glad to see the Islamic Republic continue in power.
00:28:47.500 And I would also note the Pakistanis had a little war with Iran not too long ago.
00:28:55.880 So, yeah, this is, it enhances Israel's position, and it weakens the Palestinians, no matter what happens next.
00:29:03.600 But it could severely, severely change the position of the Palestinians.
00:29:07.640 However, Alistair will return, it always does.
00:29:11.320 Yeah.
00:29:11.680 I note that in his report on his truth social media platform, Donald Trump said that in his recent call with Vladimir Putin, he talked a little bit about Iran.
00:29:23.520 And it seems to me that one of the things Trump, and I think maybe you told me this, one of the things Trump is trying to achieve was to get, to say to Russia, if you come to terms in Ukraine, and if we help you there, get out of Iran.
00:29:39.720 I mean, what was, Russia was pretty heavy into Iran and Syria.
00:29:44.860 It invested tens of billions of dollars into those relationships.
00:29:48.560 I mean, it had a very active port and air force base in Syria, which Russia doesn't have a lot of those around the world.
00:29:56.440 So, it was invested in the region.
00:30:00.860 I suppose they're distracted by bigger issues right now.
00:30:03.760 What do you think Russia's take on this whole thing is?
00:30:06.640 Well, when it comes to Syria, the Russians are still there.
00:30:09.020 Both the port and the air base are still in Russian hands.
00:30:12.320 And the new government has been slow about challenging the Russians and is ready to work with the Russians, despite the fact that not so long ago they were being bombed by the Russians.
00:30:23.080 So, the Russians haven't lost everything in Syria.
00:30:26.400 In Iran, Iran is more important at the moment because the Iranians are supplying weapons, in particular drones.
00:30:33.240 It doesn't look like that's going to be happening in the next months or years even.
00:30:37.500 And, as you say, Putin has invested a great deal in ties with Iran, and he is the loser.
00:30:46.240 Now, Donald Trump is a bit of a cowboy.
00:30:50.620 You don't know what he's going to say, and you don't know what's on his mind, but he did suggest to Putin that if Putin is helpful here, there might be benefits for he, for him, Putin.
00:31:01.680 What Trump has in mind, I don't even dare try and guess.
00:31:06.280 I want to throw one last thing.
00:31:08.440 By the way, thank you so much for giving us so much time.
00:31:10.860 I was reading an essay by Dominic Cummings, the former advisor to Boris Johnson and the British conservatives.
00:31:19.340 He's a conservative.
00:31:20.880 He's a little bit like Steve Bannon in that he's a big thinker outside the box, a bit of a troublemaker, a bit rogue, tells it like it is.
00:31:27.800 I find him very interesting.
00:31:29.500 Dominic Cummings is his name.
00:31:31.100 And he recently wrote that serious people in the UAE, he didn't name names, but oligarchs, titans, princes, whatever, are now saying, don't send your children to school in the UK because they will be radicalized and Islamized.
00:31:54.660 Don't send them there.
00:31:55.720 And I just, I just was riveted by that.
00:31:58.200 I mean, and he has a little bit of a discussion about that.
00:32:01.120 And I thought, isn't that quite something?
00:32:03.300 The United Arab Emirates, more moderate on Islam than UK hothouses of their universities.
00:32:10.520 And I don't know if he was saying that to be dramatic or if, or if that's just one anecdote that he pumped up, but it struck me as credible that, that the leaders of UAE are saying, don't send your sons to the London School of Economics or to the, you know, Trinity College in Ireland.
00:32:30.780 Because they'll come back ready to join the jihad.
00:32:33.400 What do you think of that?
00:32:35.760 It makes sense.
00:32:36.800 And it also taps into a saying, I think in the 1950s, maybe earlier, that if you want your child to become a communist, send them to Paris, like Ho Chi Minh.
00:32:45.940 If you want to have them become a capitalist, send them to Moscow.
00:32:48.640 Yeah.
00:32:49.240 It's not new.
00:32:51.520 Isn't that interesting?
00:32:53.000 But you mentioned Steve Bannon.
00:32:54.540 If I might just pick up on that for a second.
00:32:56.420 He and Tucker Carlson and others in the MAGA movement are furious, furious with Trump.
00:33:03.580 And it looks like there could be a breach.
00:33:06.100 I mean, Carlson in particular insulted Trump.
00:33:09.140 Not the way you wield influence in this administration by insulting Trump.
00:33:15.080 So let's watch that.
00:33:16.920 Yeah, I saw that.
00:33:17.700 Here, let me play a little bit of a clip of the two men talking.
00:33:20.620 Here's Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon.
00:33:22.340 I actually really love Trump.
00:33:24.140 He's a deeply humane, kind person.
00:33:27.140 And I am saying this because I'm really afraid that my country is going to be further weakened by this.
00:33:34.900 I think we're going to see the end of American empire, obviously.
00:33:37.580 Other nations would like to see that.
00:33:39.460 And this is a perfect way to scuttle the USS America on the shoals of Iran.
00:33:43.640 But it's also going to end, I believe, Trump's presidency and effectively end it.
00:33:48.760 And so that's why I'm saying this.
00:33:50.820 What do you mean by that?
00:33:51.580 That's coming from you.
00:33:52.920 You get, look, I knew Bush.
00:33:54.680 I knew George W. Bush.
00:33:55.980 We had family connections to Bush.
00:33:57.640 I knew Bush.
00:33:59.040 Personally, I still see Bush sometimes.
00:34:01.940 And, you know, of course, he hates me.
00:34:05.000 And he does because I criticized him on Iraq.
00:34:08.640 And that war is the sum total from historical perspective of his administration.
00:34:13.920 But I knew him and he had all kinds of plans for the things that he wanted to do.
00:34:18.420 Domestically.
00:34:19.560 Domestically.
00:34:19.880 Right.
00:34:20.080 To improve the country.
00:34:20.880 Right.
00:34:21.140 And you may agree or disagree.
00:34:22.520 But, like, in his mind, he wasn't just about the invasion of Iraq in March of 2000.
00:34:27.260 Oh, no, no.
00:34:27.680 He was going to redo Social Security.
00:34:29.740 100%.
00:34:30.180 All types of things.
00:34:31.640 He was going to take care of the entitlements issue.
00:34:33.240 And he really thought it was going to work.
00:34:34.780 Yep.
00:34:35.120 And you could laugh at that or whatever.
00:34:36.320 But the point is, the second you get enmeshed in a real war, not a fake, let's go bomb the
00:34:41.840 villagers and declare success, we don't even have a good track record.
00:34:46.200 Like, why are the Houthis still there?
00:34:48.240 I mean, there's a whole other question, which is how prepared is the U.S. military for a real
00:34:52.440 conflict?
00:34:53.240 And the answer is totally unprepared.
00:34:54.860 Scary unprepared.
00:34:55.740 I don't think people understand that.
00:34:57.200 But anyway, the only reason I'm saying any of this is because I really, really care.
00:35:03.140 You know, I like both Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, and both men have been kind to me.
00:35:07.960 So I have declined to weigh in on my differences of opinion with them.
00:35:12.540 I think if I were to give them the most generous possible reading, it would be they don't want
00:35:18.980 America involved in foreign wars.
00:35:21.480 They don't want American blood or treasure spilt in foreign wars.
00:35:24.960 And the good news for them is there hasn't been.
00:35:28.260 I'm sure there is intelligence sharing between the CIA and Israel.
00:35:36.040 It goes both ways, by the way.
00:35:37.840 But as far as I know, there hasn't been any Americans involved whatsoever in this war.
00:35:42.500 It's two other countries beating each other up.
00:35:44.760 And thankfully, the one whose motto is death to America, the one that blew up Marines in
00:35:51.040 Beirut, the one that commits terrorism around the world, the bad guys are losing.
00:35:55.680 Israel is taking out the trash of anti-American murderers.
00:36:00.740 How that offends the America first ideology, which I happen to share, by the way, beats me.
00:36:06.900 I think that they, you know, and again, I don't want to read in any bad faith to what they're
00:36:11.960 saying because I like those guys.
00:36:13.660 But their professed ideology is America first.
00:36:18.140 How is it anything but America first for Donald Trump to stand back and let Israel beat up
00:36:24.040 a local terrorist group?
00:36:25.440 Where's the beef?
00:36:27.920 I think there's another dimension, which is that they focus on China.
00:36:33.580 And so any diversion from focus on China to them is offensive.
00:36:37.880 And insofar as Israel and Iran are now dominating here in the United States, that is offensive
00:36:46.120 to them.
00:36:46.620 They don't want to hear about the Middle East.
00:36:49.260 They want China, China, China.
00:36:50.900 Now, granted, China is a bigger threat than Iran, but it's not the only problem in the
00:36:57.100 world.
00:36:57.840 Ukraine is a very important issue.
00:36:59.880 And Iran, Russian, Ukraine, and Israel and Iran, these are very important issues.
00:37:05.000 So with all due respect to China, there are other topics that must be dealt with as well.
00:37:10.460 Well, that's the thing.
00:37:11.080 I mean, the State Department can walk and chew gum at the same time.
00:37:14.080 And like I say, Israel's doing the heavy lifting here.
00:37:16.440 I just, I mean, I myself do not want Americans embroiled in other wars.
00:37:21.000 I want the wars to be wrapped up.
00:37:22.700 And I like the way this one in Iran is going.
00:37:27.000 I mean, I hate war, but either the war comes now with this lopsided Israeli victory, or God
00:37:32.980 forbid the war comes in 10 years when those ICBMs dropping down in Tel Aviv have nuclear
00:37:38.380 bombs on them.
00:37:39.160 I know which war is a better one for Israel and better for humanity of any religion.
00:37:44.600 Absolutely.
00:37:45.220 But they are also worried that the Iranians will attack the United States, as I mentioned
00:37:50.160 earlier, and that therefore the United States will attack Iran.
00:37:53.380 And that they see as a calamity because it diverts attention and weaponry and the like
00:37:58.800 from protecting Taiwan and otherwise gearing up for tensions with the Communist Party of
00:38:06.140 China.
00:38:06.560 I mean, earlier today, I saw Israeli Air Force imagery of an attack on two ancient F-14 jets.
00:38:15.380 As you know, before Iran defected to the Ayatollah, before the revolution, it was an ally of the
00:38:22.440 West.
00:38:22.940 And it actually bought state-of-the-art U.S. fighter jets at the time, the F-14 Tomcat,
00:38:29.200 which, by the way, has a cameo appearance in Tom Cruise's Top Gun movie, Top Gun Maverick.
00:38:37.380 I don't know if you saw that, the one that came out a couple of years ago.
00:38:40.800 Tom Cruise is shot down in Iran.
00:38:42.360 He has to get out.
00:38:43.060 He finds some of those old F-14s.
00:38:45.200 He knows how to fly them.
00:38:46.240 He hotwires them and gets out.
00:38:47.600 It was a fun little scene in that movie.
00:38:52.080 But it's based on a fact.
00:38:53.960 Iran has some 50-year-old U.S. fighter jets that barely fly.
00:38:59.560 And today, they were destroyed by other U.S.-made fighter jets, probably F-15s or 16s.
00:39:05.440 And the reason I mention this, besides having the little anecdote from Top Gun, is for Iran
00:39:11.460 to try and attack the United States after it's been so degraded by Israel, I just don't think
00:39:19.700 that's going to be a very punitive attack.
00:39:21.600 I mean, listen, what do I know?
00:39:23.320 But I think this, listen, 40 or 50 people are dead, 600 injured.
00:39:29.060 That's not nothing.
00:39:29.760 But as Israel's wars of survival go, this is a pretty low cost for it and extremely low
00:39:36.080 cost for everyone else who gets the benefit from it.
00:39:39.160 There's a phrase we use, negative externalities.
00:39:41.840 That's when something goes wrong, but everyone else pays the price for it.
00:39:44.900 I'm not sure what the term is for when something goes right and everyone else gets the benefit
00:39:49.860 of it.
00:39:50.860 Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman, even Qatar.
00:39:54.100 All of these, Jordan, all of these places just benefited without a drop of blood.
00:40:00.480 Some of them were kind enough to help shoot down some drones.
00:40:02.620 I think Jordan did that recently, Saudi, whatever.
00:40:05.100 But I don't know what you call it when there's a positive externality that a whole bunch of
00:40:08.920 people get.
00:40:09.460 That's just what happened.
00:40:11.820 Right.
00:40:13.560 While it would be folly for the Islamic Republic to declare war or engage in hostile actions
00:40:21.500 against the United States, I wouldn't preclude it.
00:40:26.120 Such folly is not uncommon when you are steeped in your own ideology.
00:40:33.500 By analogy, let me mention December 8th, 1941.
00:40:37.420 There wasn't a reason in the world for Hitler to declare war in the United States after Pearl
00:40:41.500 Harbor.
00:40:42.200 And yet he did immediately after Pearl Harbor, which was a disaster for him.
00:40:46.780 It could have been a U.S.-Japanese war without the United States entering in Europe.
00:40:51.840 But Hitler made that easy.
00:40:54.060 It was folly.
00:40:55.680 And I think it resulted from Hitler's mindset, mentality.
00:40:59.920 And I think Khamenei is, in a similar way, captive of his ideology and could see benefit
00:41:08.300 in initiating hostilities against the United States.
00:41:12.260 Could, could.
00:41:12.800 I don't know.
00:41:13.380 But it could happen.
00:41:14.540 Very interesting.
00:41:15.260 Well, these are definitely a time of crisis and crisis also sometimes being opportunity.
00:41:25.480 And I think there is an opportunity for the world to be safer, freer, and more prosperous.
00:41:29.380 Dr. Daniel Pipes, the founder of the Middle East Forum.
00:41:31.680 Great to catch up with you.
00:41:32.660 Thanks for spending so much time with us.
00:41:35.120 Thank you for the invitation.
00:41:40.120 Well, that's our show for the day.
00:41:41.600 Until next time, on behalf of all of us at Rebel World Headquarters, to you at home,
00:41:45.920 good night, and keep fighting for freedom.
00:41:47.680 Thank you.
00:41:47.740 Thank you.
00:41:48.340 Thank you.