Rebel News Podcast - February 17, 2021


New public opinion polls suggests Erin O'Toole's Conservatives would lose an election held today


Episode Stats


Length

19 minutes

Words per minute

165.19743

Word count

3,142

Sentence count

281

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from the Innovative Research Group suggests that if an election were held today, the Tories would lose ground to the Liberals in every province except Saskatchewan and Alberta. Is it really that bad? or is it just bad polling?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hello, my rebels. Today, I take you through a new poll by the Innovative Research Group that's headed
00:00:04.820 up by Greg Lyle. What's so interesting to me is not the general numbers. You can probably guess
00:00:09.520 Aaron O'Toole is trailing the liberals. But just how far O'Toole has plummeted in the West,
00:00:16.920 in Saskatchewan and Alberta, down almost 30 percent. Now, you might say, well, who cares? I
00:00:22.940 mean, you can win a place with just, you don't need to win a riding with 69 percent. But I'll
00:00:28.800 show you what isn't happening that I think O'Toole should be concerned about. That's ahead.
00:00:34.160 Before I do, let me invite you to become a subscriber to Rebel News Plus. That's our
00:00:38.080 premium content. That's his podcast in video form. So, for example, today I'm going to show you a
00:00:44.560 bunch of charts. I'll describe them to you with my voice, but boy, I'd love to show them to you.
00:00:49.920 That's the kind of stuff you get with Rebel News Plus. Plus shows from Shiligan Reed, David Menzies,
00:00:54.020 and Andrew Chapados. It's just eight bucks a month or 80 bucks for the whole year in advance.
00:00:57.340 And we really rely on that dough to pay our bills because we don't get any money from Justin
00:01:02.220 Trudeau. So please consider going to rebelnews.com and clicking subscribe. Okay, here's today's podcast.
00:01:08.620 Tonight, a new public opinion poll suggests that if an election were held today,
00:01:28.500 Aaron O'Toole's conservatives would be crushed. It's February 16th, and this is the Ezra LeVance Show.
00:01:34.420 Why should others go to jail when you're a biggest carbon consumer?
00:01:39.300 I know. There's 8,500 customers here, and you won't give them an answer. The only thing I have to say to the government about why I'm publishing it is because it's my bloody right to do so.
00:01:49.840 Don't put too much stock in public opinion polls. They're just a snapshot in time. Things can quickly change, and sometimes there are flaws in the methodology, or sometimes people don't always tell the truth to pollsters.
00:02:06.560 Sometimes people say things, I don't know, because they're shy, or they're private, or they say what they think the pollster wants to hear them say.
00:02:16.040 But still, let me show you the new poll from a pollster called the Innovative Research Group.
00:02:21.060 I used to know their boss, Greg Lyle, way back in the day. He used to work with the Conservative Party, so I'm not sure if he still does.
00:02:26.780 Anyways, I think he's a pretty serious pollster. He published this poll the other day. Here's the main graph. Keep it up there for a while while I look through it.
00:02:35.820 It's the basic ballot question. If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?
00:02:44.180 And as you can see there, I mean, I'm not sure if you can make it out, but the small numbers at the bottom, that's dates.
00:02:51.620 So the very far left of the graph is the year 2008. That's when Stephen Harper was Prime Minister, and Stéphane Dion was the Liberal leader, if you remember back then.
00:03:00.760 In good times, you can see the Conservative vote, that's the blue line. Up in the high 30s, the Liberal line, that's the red one.
00:03:07.840 It's in the 20s, really, for much of that time. Then about a quarter of the way through the graph, Harper runs and beats the Liberal named Michael Ignatieff.
00:03:16.680 And then the thunderclap, right in the middle of the graph, the NDP vote, that's the orange one, just collapses.
00:03:23.120 The left or center vote coalesces around Justin Trudeau, and it's enough to beat Stephen Harper in 2015.
00:03:29.160 Then he retires from politics, and the party selects a new leader in 2017, actually, Andrew Scheer, who is about five minutes of popularity in 2018, which is great, except the election wasn't until 2019, when he got trounced.
00:03:47.300 And then came the pandemic in March of 2020, and that has not eroded Trudeau's popularity.
00:03:54.480 His numbers have actually grown a bit. Now, you could say that's in part because the Conservatives were leaderless for much of that time, and the Media Party was completely submissive to Trudeau, and that's all true.
00:04:06.440 The Conservatives selected Aaron O'Toole as their new leader in August of 2020. That's six months ago now.
00:04:13.900 And in fact, the Conservative numbers have dipped. They've gone down.
00:04:17.320 There has been no honeymoon for Aaron O'Hoo, as I call him.
00:04:23.000 That's sort of what he calls himself, in a way.
00:04:25.340 His new TV ad is asking people to Google him to find out who he is.
00:04:28.940 Fair enough, I suppose. Every new leader has to do that a bit, except Trudeau.
00:04:33.720 But O'Toole isn't actually new. He's been an MP for almost 10 years.
00:04:38.820 He first came to Parliament through a by-election in 2012.
00:04:43.480 He served as Veterans Minister under Stephen Harper.
00:04:47.360 He's been party leader of the Conservatives for six months.
00:04:50.580 He's had almost a decade in Parliament, and he's asking people to Google him.
00:04:56.080 And he's sacking the one Conservative MP everyone already does know, Pierre Polyev.
00:05:01.480 Anyways, I don't think I've told you anything that's surprising.
00:05:03.700 The first 90% of that poll chart was simply history, the good old days under Stephen Harper,
00:05:09.500 the collapse of the NDP vote into the Liberals in 2015,
00:05:12.380 the shellacking of Andrew Scheer in 2019, an election he should have won.
00:05:17.880 But my main point is that Aaron O'Toole didn't have a honeymoon after he was elected leader.
00:05:22.020 In fact, he is now falling in the polls.
00:05:25.880 And I want to zoom in on that for a moment.
00:05:28.500 He's had an un-honeymoon.
00:05:30.320 The party was actually doing better with no leader than with him.
00:05:35.100 But let's look a bit deeper in the poll.
00:05:38.340 This is from the Details Innovative Research Group.
00:05:42.920 So just FYI, the poll was taken from January 7th to February 1st of this year,
00:05:48.420 sample size 2,000 people.
00:05:50.300 I just want to pause on this page here, decided vote by region, okay?
00:05:56.000 Let's start at the right and go to the left.
00:05:57.400 The Atlantic, always a liberal stronghold.
00:05:59.380 So same thing now, Liberals at 47%, Conservatives at 26%.
00:06:03.260 In the entire region in the last election, Conservatives got just four seats out of 32.
00:06:09.140 Three in New Brunswick, one in Nova Scotia.
00:06:11.020 If these poll numbers hold, I'm pretty sure even a couple of those four are going to be handed back.
00:06:16.800 The Quebec numbers, they look pretty similar to the last election.
00:06:20.060 Frankly, I just don't know enough about the lay of the land to comment there.
00:06:23.060 But moving over to Ontario, a 15-point lead for the Liberals over O'Toole.
00:06:29.100 In the last election, the hapless Andrew Scheer kept the Liberals to just an 8-point lead.
00:06:35.400 That was enough to win 36 Conservative seats there.
00:06:38.000 But if Trudeau doubles the size of his lead over the Conservatives,
00:06:42.020 if he holds a 15-point lead, I think you could see, I don't know, 10, 20 Conservative MPs lose there for sure.
00:06:53.360 But so far, so what?
00:06:54.500 I mean, polls that go up and down.
00:06:56.960 Well, for O'Toole, they just seem to be going down.
00:06:59.640 But I'm sure there'll be some variation.
00:07:01.660 But really, really, I want to show you this next part.
00:07:03.900 The Prairies and Alberta.
00:07:05.320 The part of the country that the Conservatives could always take for granted.
00:07:09.200 Prairies, that's what they call Manitoba and Saskatchewan together.
00:07:12.920 Conservatives are at 41% there.
00:07:15.060 And the Liberals are at 26%.
00:07:16.580 Now, that looks like good news for the Conservatives.
00:07:19.480 But it's actually good news for the Liberals.
00:07:22.220 You see, in the last election, the Conservatives got 45% in Manitoba.
00:07:27.360 And a whopping 64% of the vote in Saskatchewan.
00:07:31.720 And if you average that out, it's about 55% in the Prairies.
00:07:36.380 Liberals got 26% in Manitoba and just 12% in Saskatchewan.
00:07:41.660 If you average that out, it's only 19%.
00:07:43.820 I know this sounds nuts.
00:07:46.240 But looking at the new numbers, I think the Liberals could actually pick up a few seats in the Prairies.
00:07:53.000 A few in Manitoba for sure.
00:07:54.940 Maybe even one in Saskatchewan or two.
00:07:57.380 But look at Alberta.
00:07:58.420 In 2019, under that goofy Andrew Scheer, the Conservatives won 69% of the vote to just 14% for the Liberals.
00:08:08.660 Now, if you can go by this new poll, the Conservatives have plummeted to just 42%.
00:08:16.020 And the Liberals have more than doubled their support to 29% in Alberta, for crying out loud.
00:08:22.140 I note that other is at 6% too.
00:08:24.500 I bet if there was a separatist option in the poll spelled out, it would be in double digits, frankly.
00:08:30.760 So what's going on here?
00:08:32.760 Well, the first thing I'd say, again, is don't put too much stock in one poll.
00:08:36.720 It's just one poll.
00:08:38.300 And polls do not predict the future.
00:08:40.020 They're just a snapshot of the day.
00:08:41.860 And there's always a margin of error, et cetera, et cetera.
00:08:43.780 But I believe it.
00:08:45.660 I believe that the Conservatives have fallen by nearly 30% in Alberta.
00:08:49.460 And by 20% in Saskatchewan.
00:08:51.140 I believe it.
00:08:51.600 And, yes, some of them are parking their votes with the Liberals in this poll.
00:08:56.740 But I don't think people have suddenly fallen in love with Trudeau, whose hatred of the West has never been deeper.
00:09:02.680 I think they just don't see in Aaron O'Toole someone who is their champion.
00:09:06.760 They don't even know who O'Toole is.
00:09:08.820 And if they do know who he is, well, they're not thrilled.
00:09:11.800 I mean, they know who Pierre Polyev is.
00:09:14.040 But Pierre sacked now.
00:09:15.660 In fact, the O'Toole campaign project, trying to reintroduce himself to people, isn't actually fighting against people not knowing anything about him.
00:09:24.900 It's fighting against people knowing something about him that's not great.
00:09:30.000 Aaron O'Toole is big on cancel culture.
00:09:31.920 He's big on cowering before the liberal media.
00:09:34.640 And he really isn't fighting the big fights of our era.
00:09:37.740 Let's try not to be controversial.
00:09:39.160 It doesn't say anything about lockdowns.
00:09:40.720 It doesn't say anything about cancel culture.
00:09:42.520 I mean, he does cancel culture.
00:09:43.680 But trying not to be controversial doesn't work in times of controversy.
00:09:49.700 We need our leaders to take sides on the big issues.
00:09:52.960 And O'Toole just isn't.
00:09:54.780 That's not just my opinion.
00:09:56.220 I think it's the view of Westerners in general.
00:09:58.900 Now, as we mentioned last week, the CBC and a bunch of Ottawa lobbyists believe that to win, Aaron O'Toole has to turn left
00:10:06.500 and to disavow Jason Kenney and Derek Sloan and Pierre Polyev and Rebel News in order to appeal to voters in Ontario, former liberals.
00:10:15.100 I understand the strategy, but I can also see that it's not working.
00:10:21.720 O'Toole has succeeded in backing away from the West and Western values.
00:10:26.640 Okay, got it.
00:10:27.720 But that hasn't bought him any new support in Ontario.
00:10:31.380 It just hasn't.
00:10:33.200 Look, if they want a liberal in Ontario, why wouldn't they vote for the real thing?
00:10:37.000 I just don't think you can turn your enemies into friends by saying, look, I treated my friends as enemies.
00:10:44.060 I think we're going to have a spring election.
00:10:46.800 And I think Aaron O'Toole is going to be crushed.
00:10:49.700 Now, that in itself could be a healthy thing.
00:10:52.820 Except really, is there even anyone waiting in the wings of the Conservative Party?
00:10:58.080 Stay with us for more.
00:10:59.020 Well, as I think I told you yesterday, it is our sixth anniversary, or yesterday was.
00:11:15.840 So today is the first day of our seventh year at Rebel News.
00:11:20.120 And we brought all our staff together from the far-flung parts of Canada.
00:11:24.980 We had Drea Humphrey come in from Vancouver, Keem Bextie from Calgary, Sheila Goddard-Reed from Northern Alberta.
00:11:30.460 Yankee Pollock came in from Montreal.
00:11:32.240 It was a great gathering.
00:11:33.940 And we had a nice little birthday lunch, and we had some fun videos that we watched.
00:11:40.460 It was just a bit of a get-together and say hi to everybody.
00:11:43.240 Because, you know, I have to say, it's lonely enough being a rebel in this media world where everyone is left-wing
00:11:49.460 and everyone's on the take of Justin Trudeau's bailout.
00:11:51.680 So, I mean, for six years, the first five years of that, it was lonely enough being a rebel.
00:11:56.740 But then in the pandemic times, well, I feel like we've been almost, you know, I can count on one hand's fingers
00:12:03.200 the number of other independent media in this country that have been standing up for civil liberties.
00:12:08.440 True North, Spencer Fernando, and I'm almost out of examples, Black Rocks out of Ottawa.
00:12:15.620 So it was great just to see everybody again.
00:12:18.340 And a couple of our editors, Efron and Mocha, put together this reel.
00:12:21.020 Now, yesterday, I showed you sort of a highlight reel that we're still working on.
00:12:24.500 We haven't perfected that one yet.
00:12:25.780 Here's another one.
00:12:26.820 We're working on it, but I want to show you the version that Mocha and Efron showed to the team today.
00:12:31.580 It made me feel pretty neat.
00:12:32.940 So this is a little bit of a pep rally.
00:12:35.560 But, you know, we have survived six full years in this media environment without a dime of government money.
00:12:41.100 And we're growing, and I think we're doing more important work than ever.
00:12:43.940 That's my view, at least.
00:12:44.820 So let me share with you this highlight reel of the last six years.
00:12:50.520 Again, it's a work in progress.
00:12:51.620 We'll probably put a revised version of it out on YouTube later.
00:12:55.620 But for now, let me show you what we looked at when we had our birthday lunch today.
00:12:59.680 So I'll say goodbye now.
00:13:01.020 But actually, I'll come back in a second to read the letters.
00:13:04.400 But let me show you now the birthday highlight reel that Mocha and Efron made.
00:13:09.080 You wanted to leave them.
00:13:10.360 Arrest them or go away.
00:13:11.600 You said that there's two options.
00:13:12.700 Arrest them or go away, mate.
00:13:13.880 Just arrest them.
00:13:15.020 Arrest them or go away.
00:13:16.300 Okay, let's do that.
00:13:20.200 My colleagues, you're not listening.
00:13:24.200 You're not listening to the lawmen.
00:13:25.760 Arrest them or go away.
00:13:55.760 I am mourning the loss of the sun.
00:14:09.820 Best job I ever had.
00:14:11.020 Most amazing colleagues.
00:14:12.300 Most passionate viewers.
00:14:13.720 Most loyal friends.
00:14:14.760 But now what?
00:14:15.920 It's day three of our trip here to Israel.
00:14:18.380 And I'm standing, well, right across from Gaza.
00:14:21.720 These people are blowing right past us right now on route to Akiyuken.
00:14:26.680 I am in Israel for almost 10 days.
00:14:29.000 We're in the central district of Hong Kong.
00:14:31.000 We came here to report the story and it turns out we're here to clean up the place's mess.
00:14:36.420 If you're already a Rebel News follower, then I'm sure you recognize this building behind me.
00:14:42.580 Here on this beautiful day in downtown Colbert.
00:14:45.120 As I'm back with you here at Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto.
00:14:47.480 I don't have a billion dollars a year in corporate welfare bailouts like the CBC gets.
00:14:52.080 So what can I do?
00:14:53.120 The second year in a row I've been banned from doing journalism from within the conference.
00:14:58.160 But that's not going to stop me.
00:14:59.760 There's police walking along there and what we're seeing is the crowd is heckling them.
00:15:05.520 I've never seen anything like this.
00:15:07.520 China is asshole. 0.99
00:15:08.880 Quite peaceful until...
00:15:10.260 They've got it!
00:15:10.920 They've got a problem!
00:15:13.020 Eddie, let's cut it!
00:15:13.860 He's under arrest.
00:15:15.940 I'm media.
00:15:17.320 I am media.
00:15:18.600 I'm media.
00:15:21.720 I have the right to speak what's on my heart.
00:15:24.540 Mainstream media has decided to sit this one out.
00:15:27.860 Nothing to see here, folks.
00:15:29.020 I know you're doing your job and things like that, but how does that align with the oath
00:15:33.320 that you took?
00:15:34.020 Do you feel like it's lining up pretty well?
00:15:36.040 I don't condemn the violence.
00:15:37.580 I hope we can protest peacefully.
00:15:39.160 I do condemn.
00:15:40.000 I do not condemn the violence.
00:15:41.820 It does allude to the fact that exemptions exist and they should be respected and that
00:15:46.540 no one has to prove that they are exempt from the mask mandate.
00:15:51.860 So why is that not being upheld here in Peterborough?
00:15:54.200 Rebel against the smug mainstream media who think their ideas reflect the national consensus.
00:15:59.020 You don't trust the CBC?
00:16:00.680 I don't trust any of them.
00:16:02.100 Where have you guys been?
00:16:04.700 Where have you been?
00:16:06.980 You have been in all the...
00:16:08.840 Where have you guys been for the whole year?
00:16:10.680 Ezra, thank you so much.
00:16:12.200 Congratulations on Rebel News.
00:16:13.480 I know you take a lot of abuse.
00:16:14.760 I think Canada, they do a great job.
00:16:16.120 We appreciate it.
00:16:16.580 Shame on you.
00:16:17.600 You censorious hoobug. 1.00
00:16:19.640 This is Ottawa, Canada 2020.
00:16:22.440 Because I watch Rebel Media every day.
00:16:25.420 I mean, I tell my crew, who are great, I say, this is how we should do stuff right here.
00:16:29.100 You are a real media.
00:16:30.960 We're so thankful.
00:16:32.120 Our family's so thankful that you're doing this and helping us out.
00:16:35.140 Because we're not just wanting to do this for my mom.
00:16:37.880 We're also wanting to do this for all the thousands and millions of people around the
00:16:42.440 world that are going through this nightmare.
00:16:44.760 It's not just us.
00:16:46.400 It's everybody.
00:16:47.840 We got you covered, Robert, okay?
00:16:49.100 We're trying to muster the courage then.
00:16:50.840 I thank you so much for reporting this.
00:16:52.980 Like, Rebel, you're the best.
00:16:54.620 Rebel Media is true news.
00:16:57.280 Listen to them.
00:16:58.660 CBC, shame on you.
00:17:00.900 Rebel Media, where we are?
00:17:03.140 Rebel Media, where we are?
00:17:05.260 Well done, Rebel Media.
00:17:07.720 Well done, Rebel Media.
00:17:09.620 Well done, Rebel Media.
00:17:14.760 Hey there, on the show last night, Bruce writes,
00:17:25.800 if silence is golden, speech must be platinum.
00:17:28.700 Apart from my MP, Shannon Stubbs, I can't think of one I like.
00:17:32.200 I'm especially upset at Aaron, he, him, O'Toole for caving to leftists and the media bombshells.
00:17:37.120 Oh, come on. 0.87
00:17:38.020 Please don't tell me Aaron O'Toole uses his pronouns.
00:17:40.860 I won't be able to survive learning that.
00:17:43.580 Please tell me you're just joking.
00:17:45.760 Dorothy says, tired of Ottawa and they're garbage.
00:17:49.760 Yeah, but you know, don't blame the whole city of Ottawa.
00:17:51.480 There's 900,000 people in Ottawa.
00:17:53.520 Don't blame them all for what, that's a trick the media does.
00:17:56.820 If there's good news from the federal government, it's Trudeau does this,
00:18:01.580 or liberals do that if it's good news.
00:18:04.460 Trudeau, liberals.
00:18:05.620 But if it's bad news, it's Ottawa does this.
00:18:08.640 So it's a bit of a trick that I've caught.
00:18:11.920 The bad news is always the government, the feds, Ottawa.
00:18:16.100 The good news is always Justin, Justin.
00:18:18.780 Joe West says, happy birthday, Rebel Media.
00:18:20.660 Well, thank you very much.
00:18:21.900 We are now in our first day of our seventh year.
00:18:24.440 Feels pretty good.
00:18:25.640 Well, that's our show for today.
00:18:26.840 Until tomorrow, on behalf of all of us here at Rebel World Highquarters,
00:18:29.620 good night and keep fighting for freedom.
00:18:31.200 We'll be right back.