SPONSOR ｜ BREAKOUT! Why this silver rally is different
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Summary
In this episode of The Real Money Show, Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Karayana discuss the new fundamentals for the market, including the growing re-monetisation of physical precious metals and the potential for gold and silver to become a monetary asset again.
Transcript
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Welcome to another edition of The Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined
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by Jerry Karaya. And Jerry, getting ready for today's show, we were overwhelmed because
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the market's been moving quite a lot. In fact, I've got some numbers here for what we've
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been seeing in the market so far. We've had 130% gain in silver this year. We're going to get into
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some of the stories that we've been seeing throughout the year. And it seems like there's
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velocity happening, that every week there's more things going on in the market. So we're busy,
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market's busy, people are excited. It's great to see people making money. But one of the big themes
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I think we should cover today is the new fundamentals for the market. In the past,
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the reasons why people have been getting involved in both gold and silver have been inflation is a
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big one. Obviously, the more money or currency you print, the more currency is chasing goods. So the
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prices rise. That's been a huge one. Another one was always safe haven demand. And what we mean by
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safe haven is sort of, well, what happens if your stocks fall? You want to have a diversified
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portfolio. And of course, another important one is supply and demand fundamental, which I think still
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plays a really big role. So one of the things I'm seeing is a proliferation, I don't know about you,
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in social media of investing channels that were, say, more focused on crypto are all of a sudden
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talking precious metals. And they're kind of talking about these fundamentals. So let's talk
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about what the new fundamentals are. Yeah. As Vince Lancey says, data doesn't matter anymore.
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It's a structural shift happening in the market. And there are new fundamentals. So we often discuss
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silver and gold, the precious metal sectors, as being like this engine. We're a V12. We have
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just 12 pistons just pumping at the same time. This is why we are constantly filtering through the
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most relevant news to deliver to the people, to our clients, which is why they come to Guildhall,
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because we speak the same lingo. I mean, if you're watching Rebel News, our clients watch Rebel News.
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So we understand why you're watching. You want to free your wealth, but you need to be and get
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empowered with what's happening. And as far as the precious metals market goes, the driving
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fundamentals of physical ownership, because we don't do the paper stuff. Don't get it confused.
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We don't do the futures or ETFs or certificates. We've introduced and we've been introduced with or
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new themes have come on board. We have the growing re-monetization of physical precious metals.
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That word precious connotates that gold and silver are monetary metals, right? So we have to remember
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what is money. And this is why the show is called The Real Money Show.
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Yeah. And so when we're looking at, for example, one of the new fundamentals being
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re-monetization, you can see things like in Asia, they titled gold and silver high quality
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And then the other one is recently in India that they are allowing people to bring their
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silver to the bank to get loans against it, which is effectively you're saying it's a tier
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one asset as stated by the Bank of International Settlements.
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Yeah. The Reserve Bank of India permits silver and gold as collateral.
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Yeah. And we're going to see more and more of that developing over time. So this idea of it
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becoming a monetary asset again. And I think as the dollar continues to lose value or currencies
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continue to lose value, I think that people can make changes very quickly and start to understand
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the differences between a currency and money. Currency being just a unit of exchange doesn't
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necessarily hold any value as we're seeing with our own currency in Canada. But money is a store of
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That's what gold and silver have done for decades.
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Yeah. But the, now the next fundamental is that it's, it's been, the price itself has been managed
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for the better part of 50 years since they lifted the gold standard.
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What does that mean? It means that, you know, in, they created the futures market to create
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volatility, right? So what did your advisor say to you? Oh, you don't want to get gold or silver.
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It's volatile, right? It's the career that got created from, that got created from the futures
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market. Then you have the, what I call a psyop against gold and silver, which is, you don't want
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to own gold. It's a relic. It doesn't pay a dividend. It's just a tradition. Yeah. It's just a
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tradition. Who said that? That was Bernanke. Bernanke is just a tradition to Ron Paul. You know,
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you can't eat it. What are you going to buy with it? Those sort of things.
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What are you, a gold bug? So great psyop got people out of it and they needed you in fiat
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currencies because that's how they wanted to take your money through inflation.
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Give me the power to create the nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws.
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Now, I love that. The thing is, is that that worked as long as the silver users got their
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product, they're happy to get it at a low price. What happens when the supply runs out
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and they still need the product, right? Or what happens when billionaires like David Bateman
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will talk about, start to realize, wait a minute, this is extremely undervalued, just
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like Charles de Gaulle noticed in 1970 when he said, I'll take the gold. If you're charging
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$35 an ounce, I'll take the gold now, right? Here's my destroyer ship.
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Just load up the gold and then they close the window. So the idea that that system is
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collapsing, just like the London gold pool did in the late 60s. So now you have all of
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this demand by not just users, but also investment and people looking to get out of the dollar,
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for instance. And it's not just getting out of the dollar, by the way. It's also not trusting
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the other dollars. China can't sit there and say, well, we know you don't like the US, but
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you can trust our dollar. No, they need something different, right? We're talking gold here, but
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Well, this is what we're seeing, right? We've seen the BRICS unit just been released, or they're
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going to be launching the BRICS unit, which is a unit of a digital currency backed by gold that
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is introduced by the BRICS nations because they have created this, the golden corridor across
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Africa, right into East Asia. And just recently, JP Morgan jumped ship and head overseas to Singapore,
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probably to align the JP Morgan vaults into the golden corridor for banking. But gold and silver,
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they're monetary assets, they're tier one capital, they're high quality liquid assets. And this is
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important today because the treasury, which is the very fabric of the US economy, the collateral
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values are dying. Collateral is dying, folks. And this is the reason why we're seeing the overnight
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repo market blowing up once again. Japan is about to raise interest rates to the highest point ever
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in the last 50 years. This is going to blow up the yen carry trade. The yen carry trade is going to
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blow up. This is going to show that the assets that you have on the balance sheet
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is very small compared to all of the derivatives and the liabilities that are sloshing around and
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going to literally blow up because the carry trade ever since World War II, the Japanese were told to
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keep their interest rates at negative. This Godzilla financial system was created and you could borrow
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the yen and you could finance anything. We're talking about currencies could be financed, corporate
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real estate could be financed, possibly corruption. Financialization. It's total financialization based
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on the currency. But the currency has gone belly up. There was probably a meeting, but the core five.
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Okay. Right. And Japan is now reversing course. They're about to raise interest rates. It's going to
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cause tremendous volatility. So assets need to be shored up. So we're seeing demand coming in,
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structural reset and what's driving prices higher. It's structural stress because there's not enough
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silver in the market to quell all of those futures contracts. And now you have scarcity driven growth,
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another fundamental for silver and precious metals. Well, you jumped back a little bit into
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definancialization there with the yen carry trade. That's what I do. And then to just follow up on the
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other point, which was the repricing of silver after it's been managed. And we're talking silver,
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but both gold and silver, where the price has been managed for the better part of 50 years.
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And that was based on financialization and paper, paper inventory. Well, the bluff has been called on
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the paper inventory and people want the physical, right? So the end of financialization means the
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repricing of things. And that's really the second fundamental. The third fundamental is going to be
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the industrial side of it. Not just, oh, industrial demand. There's a lot of industrial demand, but it's
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the future industrial demand where it's going to come from. So let's jump into the future of industrial
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demand. Earlier this year, we talked about Samsung releasing a solid state battery that would
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revolutionize EV vehicles. This is a breakthrough in technology. The idea would be, be able to charge
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your car faster, way faster. You'd be able to go further with it, et cetera, et cetera. And at the time
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when we, I forget when we mentioned it, I think early spring or late winter last year, this year,
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but we've had a development in that story. And I noticed it's come back in the news. Do you want to
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tell us a little bit about what's happening there? So yes, uh, Samsung recently, um, was, uh,
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approached a mine, a Canadian company, uh, to secure two years worth. So they're going forward
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and they're all in essence, they're locking in a two year forward on future output for their silver.
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Why? It's just like a forward contract in currencies. When I was dealing currencies, you want to, you think
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the rates are going to go up? You want to lock in today's rate two years out and you pay, you pay a
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little premium, but this is what you're getting. You're locking in, but not just financials. They're
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doing this to secure the growth and the future of Samsung because that battery, I mean, you're not
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only getting a safer battery battery, it's safer. The lifespan's 20 plus years, an 800 kilometer range
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and faster charging, 80% charge in nine minutes. You're not going to be sitting in that parking lot,
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potentially blowing up your battery. You know, there's going to be revolutionizing with this own
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silver too. And plus you get to drive your silver vehicle. I see it right now. The Samsung silver
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streaker or something. Well, I ran some, some numbers on it and, um, there's up to a kilo bar in
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every, every Samsung solid state battery. So if a hundred, if a million vehicles adopted it,
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you'd be looking at a thousand tons or 32 million ounces or 4% of annual mine supply.
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That's only on a million vehicles. If you were to move, obviously move that up, uh, you're looking
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at a significant amount. You could be looking at, as of right now, up to 20% of mining supply just on
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this one battery alone. And that's just battery. We're talking about the future of technology.
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You know, that's, as much as we advance technologically folks, you're going to need
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more silver for your stuff. You know, you want to build out. BNN continuously talks about the
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building out of AI. It's great. I embrace it, but we have to embrace the materials that you need to
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build it. And you need silver to build your data center in Ontario for your AI. Tens of thousands
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of kilograms of silver in every new data center. The new race, the new space race, it's, it's the new
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market is an arms race for physical metals. This is a new race. It's a new space race, but it's for
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physical metal, specifically silver. This is the reason why we're seeing billionaires coming on
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board and they're racing towards this as an investment. So is it, so after, um, you know,
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130% gain this year, to me, it seems like, okay, again, we're, we're rebalancing the books. The price
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has been kept down for years upon years because if the price is moving higher, people want to be
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involved in it. Right. That's just a fact of life. The higher the price goes, more people want to get
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involved. There's more people who will buy at 50 than ever bought at 20 more will buy at 70 than ever
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bought at 50. Uh, and that continues along, but, um, the price was managed for a very long time.
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The lid is coming off of that. So you know, you're having to, you know, the beach ball underwater,
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the compressed spring, it's starting to bounce back. How far along are we in the bull market
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and our peep and are these billionaires who are buying, uh, silver? And we'll get into those in
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just a moment. Um, how far are we into this bull market right now? I think we were just at the, um,
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possibly the tail end of the third super cycle in precious metals. Um, we follow Chris Kat Capital.
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We follow Jim Rickards who commented on this. So this is a 50 going back 50 years of super cycles.
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We've had two previous from 1970 to 1980 and then 2000 to 2010. Those cycles saw gold from low to high
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about average 400, 1400%. And that's when we bottomed out at 16 to one in 1980, where you just needed 2000
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ounces of silver to buy a house. Now, if the next cycle, which is supposed to be around 14 K from low
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to high in the next, by the next year or so, that would put silver at around 490 us per ounce and
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scoff at that idea. But when you look at things like cryptos, when you have Ethereum into the
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thousands and Bitcoins close to a 100,000 that literally just have one, one or two utilities
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where we have physical silver with multiple usages and as well as being reintroduced as, as
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monetary, I think the future looks very bright. We're very supported. The future is precious,
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Jeremy. We're not doom and gloomers here at Guildhall. We believe that gold and silver will
00:15:17.720
usher in that solution. And I do believe it's going to be coming down the pike very soon
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as, as asset prices have to get revalued. So let's talk about David Bateman. He's a billionaire
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who recently purchased silver, I guess last year. He's done very well on his purchases,
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but he stepped into the market recently when the price had a very quick dip in the market
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and bought a whole bunch more. Tell us about it. Yeah. Tell us about David Bateman. Yeah. He's
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founded and harvested tech unicorn Entrada. It's probably the most popular property management
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software that's used. If you're a property manager, you probably use that. His most recent physical
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silver purchase was his third, I believe on December the 15th on 16th. Um, almost a week
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ago, he bought 300 monster boxes of silver Eagles. Jeremy, that's 500 ounces each box. That's 50,
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150,000 ounces of physical silver coins. He mentioned the premiums were low and he was enthusiastic about
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that before that. Um, December 13th, couple of days prior, he posted about buying 350,000 ounces of
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physical silver, the previous week at the dip. Um, and then his major early buys was the massive,
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uh, 800,000 ounces on July the 2nd of and during the summer. And then the initial massive 12.69
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million ounces, uh, back in March of 20, 2025, as of this month, his total physical stack of silver is
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around 12, just under 13 million ounces. Now let's look at these, his averages, his average,
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he's averaged about 35 to $40 us per ounce across the full stack. Yeah. His, his re unrealized gains
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because he hasn't sold, he probably will not sell are some, his gains are substantial. He's at $66
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and the silver is at $65 an ounce, right? He's up about translating to about 400 to $600 million
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in paper profits on the physical silver, um, which is about 90% up overall. So he, his profits are more
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than what Saudi Arabia invested. Just recently bought. They put $20 million, I think, I believe
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it's 20 million into the ETF. Yeah. Right. There was in the millions. Yeah. Where, where, whereas
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this, uh, this gentleman is taking delivery of the physical product. It's, it's being withdrawn
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out of the market. Yeah. He's, I mean, his, his most recent buy, I mean, two weeks ago.
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How come they're not vilifying him like, uh, the Hunt brothers? You know what? That's a very
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good question. I think just because he has credibility of being successful in everything
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he's done. I don't think, um, he has that they could say anything wrong about him. I mean,
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or he's just highlighting everything that he comments on X is to do, has to do with obtaining
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the physical, stay away from the futures. And that was the, that was the, that was their
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downfall. That's true. That's very true. So his comments, he, he continues to add on
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dips and rallies. He comments, but he's super excited. His most recent comment was, was
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yesterday. He says, yes, it's possible for the price of silver to go five X or 10 X from
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here, but don't forget the price of other investable assets, stocks, bonds, real estate, which again
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are priced in dollars. We have to remember that could collapse simultaneously resulting
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in an even more exaggerated increase in silver's buying power. This is a once in a multi-century
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event unfolding on a planetary scale. It's, it's involving everybody. Anyone can get involved.
00:19:01.720
If you have just a few hundred dollars, a few thousand, we have a monthly buyer's plan. You want
00:19:07.000
to accumulate with Guildhall. We want to help you out, get out of the physical, get out of the
00:19:11.620
currency, denominated assets that you're in, in your portfolio, your RSPs, TFSAs. You want to roll
00:19:17.420
out of that, convert with Guildhall, get the physical bars, totally unencumbered outside of
00:19:22.780
the banking system, outside of the digital fiat system. This is how they get you. They want to
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keep you in the bank, but we want to get you free as the central bank of India is allowing the people
00:19:34.320
of India to buy it in the pension. Yeah, that's huge. Why doesn't Canada's regulators allow that?
00:19:40.440
Well, why doesn't, why don't they? Oh, we, you know, the various regulators that we have are,
00:19:44.980
you know, crown corporations. And we know who the crown is, you know, they love the fiat system.
00:19:51.180
We're seeing the London Bullion Market Association, the London Metals Exchange,
00:19:55.560
the metals fleeing. He who has the gold makes the rules. The old guard is stepping down. We're seeing a
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reintroduction of gold and silver for the people. And this is how we take back our sovereignty.
00:20:07.160
This is how we take back our purchasing power and our future for our kids, right?
00:20:11.740
I think, you know, one of the things, though, is you look at where the current price of gold is,
00:20:17.400
not necessarily what the value of gold is. And the price of silver has made a nice move. I think
00:20:21.960
there's a tendency there to say, oh, it's getting expensive.
00:20:26.400
Sure. Right. And one of the themes that I've been noticing recently with the current bull market that
00:20:33.980
we're having, and you speak to people, is it's not that gold is expensive. It's that you haven't kept
00:20:43.840
up with wages. The value of your labor hasn't kept up. I was seeing this post that in the 30s,
00:20:54.340
an unskilled laborer made, I think, between $1,200 and $1,500 a year. But with $35 an ounce,
00:21:03.940
That means in today's market, you'd be making a quarter million.
00:21:09.560
It's not the quarter million. Also, income tax wasn't where it is today. It wasn't 40% on
00:21:15.700
$250,000. So imagine you were able to keep most of that $250. If that was the case, then you have
00:21:23.820
a one-income family, probably have a couple kids, can go on vacation.
00:21:30.760
So what's happening? What's happening is, in some ways, it's a confiscation.
00:21:36.420
If you're not going to own it because it's getting too expensive, then you're not going
00:21:43.460
So if gold starts to feel too expensive, then that's where silver comes in, right? Because
00:21:49.700
at $67 an ounce US, it's certainly nowhere near where gold is. And the ratio right now
00:21:57.100
is still close to 70 to 1, which is nowhere close to the historic ratio, which is 16 to 1.
00:22:03.460
And so that's going to be one criteria we follow along the way. We hit 16 to 1 in 1980.
00:22:10.040
We hit 35 to 1 in 2011. We're sitting at just under 70, which says silver is a screaming buy here
00:22:18.140
at this point. So there is a long way to go. And of course, the banks are all still pretty
00:22:24.340
positive on gold. All of their forecasts for 2026 or higher, whether it be $4,600 up to $4,800.
00:22:34.360
And as we saw this year, they all change their forecast throughout the year.
00:22:38.200
Right. Well, you know what? You brought up a good point to understand the value of your
00:22:42.520
currency, understand the value of your work. And that's one of our, I guess, the new fundamentals
00:22:45.960
is we've moved from just a hedge to a growth catalyst. We, you now have to fight back because
00:22:52.440
the rate of inflation, that CP lie, as I call it. And I, you know, we use the metrics of,
00:22:59.560
you know, the shadow stats, for example, John Williams, we had him on the show before who's
00:23:03.860
uncovered that the way that Canada, especially in the US as well, calculated inflation during
00:23:09.960
the seventies. If you look at the average rate of inflation in Canada, the average rate was 8.4%.
00:23:15.680
And then magically in 1980, it went down to two. What happened? Well, there was a lot of
00:23:21.140
substitutions, hedonics, and they lowered the rate of inflation so that they can give you a measly yield.
00:23:28.300
And I think that's what people are really chasing yield, but not understanding that we have to be
00:23:33.440
watching the drop in our currencies, purchasing power, which if we still use the 1970s calculation,
00:23:39.960
we would be double digits. So that three, 5% GIC at the bank does not cut it. You're still down.
00:23:46.620
And, you know, we're up very, very nicely the year so far. And yes, banks are very positive on gold
00:23:52.820
as they have to be. You can't really avoid and ignore the precious metals market.
00:23:56.820
Well, central banks are buying it. The BRICS are buying it. It's all moving towards a new financial
00:24:01.440
system where it's, we're not going to trust the currencies. We're going to trust the money.
00:24:05.420
And gold is obviously universal money. Now, Jerry, you mentioned that prior bull markets in silver
00:24:13.080
specifically, up 1400% are the type of gains. You said David Bateman's looking for 5 to 10x from here.
00:24:21.320
We have a ratio that's just under 70 to 1. Is this the type of generational opportunity that people
00:24:29.400
have been looking for? Absolutely. I mean, we have so many, we use a lot of metrics. We use a lot of ratios
00:24:35.480
to determine where we are because the metrics that we use, the CPI, they're broken. The data is dead,
00:24:41.560
as Vince Lancey said. You have to trust other time-tested ratios and cycles, which is why we use the 50-year.
00:24:47.920
And here's another one, the 160-year-old silver cup and handle. We love this cup of tea because
00:24:54.200
some people say that silver is undergoing a correction. It could be overbought, right?
00:24:58.840
But that's complete nonsense. On the contrary, we are convinced that silver, this is coming from
00:25:03.860
Tim Hack, silver has not even broken out yet. If you track the price back to the 1800, you will be
00:25:11.280
shocked to discover that a second larger cup lies ahead. Now, this is a technical pattern that shows
00:25:16.960
a peak and a trough and a peak and a little teacup handle. And at the tail end of that teacup handle
00:25:22.660
lies another supercycle up. And a larger cup lies ahead. And since one could argue that the squeeze
00:25:31.600
of the 1980s was exaggerated by the Hunt brothers' speculation, a staged mega cup has formed, breaking
00:25:39.580
out first at $65 an ounce and then again at $100 an ounce ahead, with the final breakout occurring
00:25:48.540
around $200 per ounce, causing a long-term push towards $1,000 US dollars an ounce. And this all
00:25:56.200
coincides with the 50-year supercycle chart that we talked about. And even we even couple in Michael
00:26:03.200
Oliver's strategies as well. He uses the MSA, which is Momentum Structure Analysis, which also points to
00:26:12.940
$100 within a few months. So everything's moving in the right direction. It's not driven by speculative
00:26:21.300
excess. It's a structural change and supply squeezes in silver. The lease rates are up. It's signaling
00:26:28.280
silver squeeze is still on. It predicts a silver squeeze. So we have to follow that as well. The
00:26:36.700
Yeah. And I think I've always believed that seeing is believing for a lot of people. For us who've been
00:26:44.120
in the markets for well over 15 years, it's been a lot of, here are the fundamentals, here's what we're
00:26:52.740
looking at. And then to see it happen in reality, you're almost a little beside yourself. But I do
00:26:57.940
believe seeing is believing. I think that people needed to see $50 an ounce. They took a little pause
00:27:03.300
to digest it. And then we're back up and running again from there. And I kind of think that maybe
00:27:10.680
at the $100 level, here's my strategy very quick before we go. I think that at 66, some people are
00:27:19.940
looking at that going, yeah, well, it can't go to, there's 100% bias. So they don't say, well, I think
00:27:25.220
it can go to 120. But if it's at 100, they think, well, can it go to 200? Right? That 100% bias is in
00:27:32.600
play. But the idea of 66 to 120, they're not seeing it. But once it gets close to 100, they'll be
00:27:39.260
thinking, well, can it go to two? And you'll see a whole new influx. And I can't imagine what the
00:27:44.640
fundamentals are going to look like at that time in terms of, again, just to wrap up the show,
00:27:48.920
definancialization, remonetization, revaluation, and technologies, scarcity driven growth, and we're
00:27:56.180
moving from hedge to growth catalyst. And we talked about this, Jeremy, at our seminar, it was last
00:28:03.260
winter, for those who came out to the to the hotel to the seminar, this was the title of our seminar,
00:28:09.760
that the future is precious. You know, we're we are very optimistic about the future, even though
00:28:15.060
right now could seem murky, especially here in Canada. But this is your way out. Canadians need to,
00:28:21.000
you know, start taking ownership once again, for their wealth, be responsible with your money right
00:28:28.180
now, and convert out of denominate currency, denominate assets, and get into position as a
00:28:36.240
hedge, first and foremost, but position for that growth that's going to be happening in your portfolio,
00:28:41.500
you want to do with us, you want to get in touch with us, request your, your the Guildhall investor
00:28:46.820
kit, you want to give us a call at 1-877-8-SILVER, or guildhallwealth.com slash rebel to get in touch
00:28:55.440
with us to get your investor kit. Yeah. And what we really focus on is helping clients own actual
00:29:01.660
physical gold and silver in a registered account where it's going to be stored in a vault facility
00:29:09.320
So you own your own product. It's allocated, segregated, but it's held outside the banking
00:29:14.640
system for even more added protection. So that's it. That's another episode of The Real Money Show.
00:29:20.780
Hope you enjoyed it and get in touch with us. We can't wait to speak to you. You will be speaking
00:29:27.820
Exactly. Catch us on our YouTube channel as well at Guildhall Wealth Management. And we can't wait to
00:29:35.120
speak to you next time on The Real Money Show. And Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all those