Sponsor ｜ Central banks know what’s coming — do you？ ｜ The Real Money Show Brought to you by Guildhall Wealth
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Summary
In this episode of the Real Money Show, Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Karaya discuss the dramatic price action in the precious metals market over the past year. They discuss the drivers behind the price action, supply and demand, political risk and supply concerns, and the future direction of the market.
Transcript
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Welcome to The Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry Karaya,
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and we're going to be discussing the gold and silver market, maybe not completely weekly,
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but we hope to be here often and talk about some politics as well along the way.
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But before we get started, it's been a great year in the market, Jerry. So far, silver is up 80%
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in U.S. dollars. Gold is up 60% in U.S. dollars. And let's start right there, because we don't see
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it necessarily just because inflation is running and just because dollars are devaluing, because
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that's sort of the typical narrative of precious metals. We like to go a little bit deeper than
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that. Let's discuss that off the bat so our listeners understand and viewers understand
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sort of where we come from with regard to Guildhall Wealth. Well, this is the whole point of The Real
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Money Show, Jeremy, is to educate and empower Canadians, investors around the world to understand
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what's going on, not just overseas and not just geopolitically with the four fundamentals that
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we often talk about, which would be currency debasement through inflating the currencies,
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supply and demand and geopolitical concerns. Usually that has been the case. Things have
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shifted quite rapidly over the last few years to now include other fundamentals. But the major
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fundamentals are going to remain because the fact is all major central banks are not just
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acquiring precious metals, gold especially, ad nauseum, just nonstop. But they also are using
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the same equation that they've always used, which is just money printing. And that's what's
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happening. There's going to be a lot of rounds of money printing coming up. The dollar is devaluing.
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Every single major currency, Jeremy, is losing versus ounces. So our message has always been
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cleared. It's time to de-dollarize. Nations are de-dollarizing. The BRICS nations have been showing
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us that this is the way to do it. They're rebalancing the playing field. They're including gold in the
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conversation. And that is the major driver. The new space race, as you mentioned on the Real
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Money Show last week, is a race towards physical assets, physical resources. Critical minerals are
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now on the table. And this is a major shift as to why the demand in precious metals are going up and
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why the prices as well are going up. Price is one thing, though, Jeremy. It's not the value of what
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it offers. Price is also shifting overseas. A lot to talk about. And this is why we're so super
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excited to be on with Rebel News. Yeah. So you're talking about where we're going to derive the price
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from. It looks as though that is moving eastward. But when we think about fundamentals, we're looking
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at money printing, which is going to devalue your dollar. That's going to lead to inflation.
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There's going to be supply-demand aspects. That's the second fundamental. And then geopolitical risks.
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The supply-demand in silver has never looked better. We're sitting with a five- or six-year
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structural deficit. And then what you mentioned is this kind of new version of a space race as a new
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fundamental, which is the financializing of everything is changing. It's more to, as what Jim
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Rogers used to talk about in his book, Hot Commodities, of eventually you've got to get back
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And right now there certainly seems to be a grab for making stuff. And you need sources. So you see
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around the world there's a chase on for rare earths. But it's not just rare earths. It's also
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things like silver, for instance, which just made it onto the critical minerals list in the United
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States, which they discussed that about a month ago. And it wasn't made formally until last week.
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But that's it. Silver is now considered a critical mineral in deficit. So when you look at the prices
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having moved so much this year, is it just the demand side that's driving silver in particular at
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this point? And how much further could we see it rise from here?
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You know, it's both gold and silver at the forefront of everyone's portfolios being shifted.
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We're seeing major banks now throwing out the old 60-40 split of the portfolios to include now 20%
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into gold. Countries are now holding silver now for bank reserves. India has set up major exchanges.
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We had the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Indian Bullion Exchange. These are, in our opinion,
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going to rival and are rivaling the old guard of where we used to get the gold and silver prices.
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London and New York, two places that they don't offer any physical. They don't mine it. They just
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print it. And actually, they are kings of the contracts, which is just the paper. And it's so easy to do.
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You could flood the market with fictitious ounces. You know, one contract of silver is 5,000 ounces
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of silver that does not exist. You can create the supply and you could sell the contract,
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manipulate that market. But now that silver is being deemed and has been designated
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as a critical mineral, I think it's going to put pressure on those banks. I don't think you'll be
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allowed to do that type of shenanigans anymore in the silver space using the paper manipulative,
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you know, the control that they once had. Yeah, it's fleeing to the east. I'm glad you brought
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that up because one of the things that we really monitor at Guildhall is the revaluing of gold and
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silver. It's not an event. It's a process. And part of the reason we believe that the prices are rising
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so much is not so much because of just inflation, dollar devaluation, or the race for new assets
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and commodities to go into things, structuring, you know, AI and all new technologies going forth.
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And we'll talk a little bit about nuclear in a moment. But what there also is to this is a much
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bigger picture, which is in 71, when they lifted the gold standard, at that point, we believe there was
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a psyop against the people to not own gold, and not own silver. That's where you come up with the
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gold's a relic, it doesn't pay a dividend, just the tradition, the tradition, you're what are you a
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conspiracy nut? But if you have to own it, here's an investment version of it, where you don't actually
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own it, because you don't really want to have to take care of it, what are you going to do, put it in
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your backyard? So they come up with these reasons, right? But the point is, is that they don't want you to
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own it? Because if you own it, then you are immune to inflation. And they understand that. That's why
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they misquote inflation at 2% when it's really at 6%. And the fact that we should even accept 2%
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is ridiculous. That's 20% every 10 years, 40% loss of purchasing power every 20 years. That is
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unacceptable. We feel we shouldn't be accepting that.
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So the price has now also volatility and keeping the price low helps manage the price.
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So that'll also prevent people, we're going deep here, we're going, we're already putting on our
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But this is why people, this is why these, these entities didn't want you in those markets. They
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wanted you in the financial markets where they control you. And look at where the prices for the
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precious metals have been controlled for the better part of 50 years, which is London and
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New York. And since it's not just Asia that's moving it and the BRICS nations that are moving
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it, but now that you're calling silver a critical metal, it means you can't have these shenanigans
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in the markets. And people realize, wait a second, there's a deficit. It's critical. We need to take
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delivery of it. It's rendering the paper game anachronistic. It's no longer a game you can
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play. And so what we're seeing and what we believe at Guildhall is we're seeing a revaluing
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of the metal after it's been managed for over 50 years.
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So this is not a one-off. Silver moving up 70% in a single year is not a one-off. This
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is a beginning. And I think that right now, as you look, tell us, talk to us a little bit
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about where we are seeing silver at all-time highs. Today, I think we hit 54. We're back
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into the 53 range on silver. We'll talk about gold as well. But on silver, we are at all-time
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highs, 50-year highs in the metal. What do you think the market's going through psychologically
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Well, there's a few things at play. Psychologically, it's obviously triggering the Western investors.
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We are seeing the demand, regardless of price, coming in from the East. The exchanges actually
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have prices higher in the East. So we have a vacuuming effect, which is the arbitrage. If
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you can buy it cheap in North America, export it to Asia at a higher price, well, you're
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And they're not going to let it go, though, either.
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And this is what we're seeing. Just before the U.S. designated silver to become a critical
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mineral, it was China the week before, that revised the way that they export silver. They
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actually made it very difficult for the export. So we're seeing a hoarding now, a stockpiling.
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So it's pushing countries to do a 180. Just a year ago, we saw commercials about the green
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energy and the green project. We've got to stop with the pollution, Canada, and we'll
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shut down mining. But a complete 180, now that there is a race for critical minerals, we're
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now seeing commercials here in Canada on mainstream that are saying, well, Canada has to drill and
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We intend to, we intend to, we're going to, we're going to. What I've noticed is actually
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a lot of Canadians in the last year have also realized or taken for granted how rich they
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This graphic of barrels of oil going up. And then every so often it would gap up to another
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country who was producing. And I watched this animation and I'm thinking, oh, I must have
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missed Canada. And I just kept watching. I said, I must have really missed it. And then
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right at the end, we were second or third. And I thought, oh, whoa, wait a second. Saudi Arabia
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doesn't pay income taxes. We have the second, third largest amount of oil and we are taxed
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But I noticed every day when I talk to people, I'm finding more and more people are realizing
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how rich we should be as Canadians. But until that time happens, we have to also protect
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And silver, in my mind, is an incredible rebate. Talk to us about gold and silver in a registered
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account. Not just how we do it at Guildhall, but the benefits of having an inflation buster
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like gold and silver as part of your registered account.
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Well, I think it's a must. If you currently don't own any physical precious metals, you're
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simply just not diversified. Diversification requires inversely related assets. So if one goes
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down, the other will buffer the portfolio and keep that up. Well, the bonds are a sham.
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You know, we're seeing the dropping of bonds, inclusion of physical gold. And this is real
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ownership. When you own physical precious metals within an RSP, and by the way, Guildhall, we
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were the pioneers to bring this to the table, bring this into Canada back in 2015. You know,
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we started in 2002 and forever Canadians wanted to know, how can I use my RSP? How can I protect
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my RSP? How can I position, especially now for what's happening, to make my portfolio relevant
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with silver that is being used in AI, which is being used in military applications? How
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can I make my portfolio relevant? Well, now you can roll out. So we assist with the entire
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process very happily. You get in contact with Guildhall. Give us a call, 1-877-8-SILVER.
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And we'll help you to set up the account. We've partnered with Questrade to do this. And what
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we do is we just simply roll over. We just transfer from an existing RSP that you have
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elsewhere and you move it over to us. The process takes about 15 minutes. But what we're doing
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is you're now moving into a position to now acquire some physical precious metals. But
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our philosophy is to hold, if you cannot hold it, you don't own it. And that is our motto.
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If you cannot hold it, you don't own it. It will be stored in an independent vault facility
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that you can go to the vault. If you don't believe us that they're there, go audit your product,
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see what they look like, verify those serial numbers, and you can hold it. Because if you
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can hold it, you own it. And in this case, this is what we bring to the table. You can
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actually own physical 1-ounce bars of gold, Royal Canadian Mint, your famous Falcambi Swiss
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bars, Pamp bars. Or if it's silver you're looking for, 100-ounce Royal Canadian Mint, Pamp
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bars, Asahi bars. They're all LBMA approved. That's important.
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Because on the one hand, when we watch the markets, and we see the chicaneery in the
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paper market, it's all happening at the LBMA. But yet, we still want LBMA approved product.
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Yeah. Well, it's similar to like the US dollars.
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The London Bullion Market Association, so the LBMA, they're the foremost, I guess, the
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overseers of the gold and silver market. They do two things. The shenanigans with the
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price, yes, put that aside. But they help ensure the overall experience of your gold and your
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silver purchases and you're buying and selling. Remember why gold and silver. Central banks
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around the world need gold and silver for two reasons. Liquidity first, and the decouple
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their wealth from currencies that are being devalued. The Canadian dollar has lost over 95%
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since 1913, a purchasing power. And the London Bullion Market, what they have done, they have
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created a closed-loop chain of integrity to ensure that the metal has been sourced ethically,
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that they're pure, and that they're minted in the right way. So you have lists of bars
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that are public. And if it's not on that list, that's what we bring to the table. And if it's
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not on that public list, we're not going to give it to you. There's no need to compromise
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in your wealth insurance. Remember, this is wealth insurance first. So why would you compromise your
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insurance policy? If you actually want an insurance policy, Jeremy, we don't buy a share in an
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insurance company. You buy the actual policy. And when you're buying physical, that's what the
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central banks are doing. We're following what they do. You want to become sort of your own central
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bank without being Karl Marx and a communist. And this is the way we do it. You know, you're
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owning physical. If you can't hold it, you don't own it. Buying and selling is done on a phone call
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with us. And we're always happy to help. Yeah. And the client gets an itemized inventory report
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so they can see exactly what their bar numbers are, what they're holding in their own sub
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account at the vault. So it's fully allocated to them, fully segregated from all other holdings
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at the vault. So you have your own sub account. So unlike other versions, and there's a place for
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everything, right? We're not against anything. There's a place for everything. Absolutely.
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You know, ETFs can be a great way for getting in and out of the market if you're looking to trade.
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Physical market is not necessarily going to be economical in that means. As well, perhaps,
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I don't think it's a question of saving money, but perhaps, you know, if your budget in your
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registered account might be only $6,000, $7,000, then an ETF or pool account becomes a lot more viable,
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especially when a 100-ounce bar of silver today costs something like $7,500.
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$100. But why? But why gold and silver in a registered account? Because in my mind,
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and we've been doing this for over a decade in the registered accounts and helping clients to have
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TFSAs, RSPs, Liras, LIFs, RIFs, and RESPs. But the big key for me is that when you have
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deposited your funds into an RSP and deferred your income, great. Number one, you're not giving the
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taxes to the government. You're staking yourself your own money. I think that's important. Number
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two, now the clock is ticking. You have to know if you've won the game in registered accounts. In my
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opinion, you have to beat inflation and then beat the taxation at the end because you deferred that
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income tax. And so now you have to be able to overcome it. So to me, if you say that inflation
00:17:14.540
is 7% a year, that means on the decade, you need to be making 70% in your portfolio. Over a two-decade
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period, 140%. Now you also need to overcome the- Withholding tax. Not withholding tax, but the
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income tax that you'll pay at the end. Let's call it 30%, 40%. So basically by the time you're done
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after 20, 30 years, you need to make 200%. Gold over the last 20 years is up well over 900%. Silver's up
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well over 700%. This completely blows away any cost of doing business issues you may have with
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acquiring a physical asset. But to me, that's the key. Now, again, it doesn't have to be everything.
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It could be a portion. As you said, you're diversifying a portfolio or having things that
00:18:04.120
are negatively correlated. You want some on red, some on black, and that's what having a physical
00:18:08.980
asset that's negatively correlated to the dollar does. But to me, that's the key of the registered
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account. And the proof is that over the last decade, we have clients who are up well over 200%.
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No managing of a portfolio and mixing this investment with that investment. We're not
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financial advisors. We're only bullion dealers. But as a person who's held bullion for over 15
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years, it's the easiest thing. You just hold it. It's simplicity. Absolutely. And that's what you want
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to do. Number one, understand that you're converting out of a currency that's being debauched. And this is
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the first step in the manifesto. In order to take control of people, going after bank accounts and
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things like this have happened. The currency, the assets that you have within your RSPs are
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denominated in a currency that are being destroyed and depreciated in value. We have a rate cut cycle
00:19:03.720
on hand. The United States will be cutting interest rates on December the 10th, I believe.
00:19:08.580
Further, the Bank of Canada. What's the percentage rate that they're giving?
00:19:11.580
I think quarter point. But as things progress, we could see slashes happening. The overnight repo
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market is also another market that we keep a keen eye on. There's a lot of risk in the market.
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So when you see these things happening, by converting out of a currency, you're now denominating your wealth
00:19:29.100
in ounces that are liquid for you. And we hold it entirely outside of a digital banking system.
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When you have policies against your money, because your money is just digital ones and zeros on your
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bank account. When you log in, it looks great. We all love to check it out. But really, if you go to
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the bank and ask for that in cash, what are you to do with your money?
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Do you think right now the main concern that people should be looking at with regard to physical metals
00:19:56.880
is a concern of the stock market collapse or, you know, things being fragile? Or are you looking
00:20:06.340
more at the reset of central banks have been buying gold like crazy? We know that they're buying it
00:20:12.520
because they understand there's going to be a reset and that gold is continuing to revalue from here.
00:20:18.680
And so they get to add the asset side of their balance sheet. Right. For me personally, I think
00:20:23.340
it's Jim Rickards has talked about this. It's not so much trying to pay down the debt. It's building
00:20:29.320
up the asset side of the balance sheet and creating productivity and jobs and lowering the cost of
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energy because you could also lower your energy costs, lower your food costs, still have inflation,
00:20:40.180
but you've mitigated the pain. Right. Right. And gold and silver have certainly done that as well.
00:20:44.700
But again, is it we're worried about the fragility of the market or is it that it's being revalued so
00:20:52.900
much and so quickly? I think fragility is leading up to a pinnacle where we are leading into the
00:20:58.660
solution. We know gold and silver to be the solution to boost that side of an asset of your asset side.
00:21:05.100
Right now, the U.S. just passed 38 trillion in debt. The global debt is over 300 trillion.
00:21:10.240
Before World War II, the U.S. had debt and 20 percent of that debt had to be gold. They had to
00:21:17.340
have physical gold. There was a ratio there. Well, now, fast forward where there's 38 trillion plus
00:21:22.540
200 some odd trillion in unfunded liabilities. The gold represents only 2 percent. So the balance
00:21:30.120
sheet is way off. We're going to need to rebalance it. But going back to Jim Rickards, you know,
00:21:34.180
he's talked about what leads to the fragility or a recession and crash or depression. It's
00:21:41.380
illiquidity in the markets. There's no liquidity, which is what I brought up earlier with the repo
00:21:46.020
markets. It's showing signs of slowing down. Money is not flowing freely anymore. Banks are hoarding cash.
00:21:55.680
You know, this is this is usually the cause of major market issues. And when you have a liquidity
00:22:00.880
crisis, when everyone tries to hit head to the door at the same time, Jim Rickards calls that a nice
00:22:06.680
nine event because you're not going to be able to sell when you want to sell potentially. So firstly,
00:22:11.660
you want to set up that insurance policy, create that hedge that is away from that madness into
00:22:16.500
physical precious metals, which is the largest market in the world. Gold is bears the number one
00:22:20.800
market cap globally. It's the largest market in the world. It's not as volatile as people or planners
00:22:25.840
may say it is. It's actually the currencies that are being destroyed and losing purchasing power.
00:22:31.520
The currencies are the volatile ones. So we have a few minutes left.
00:22:36.000
All right. Yeah. And I want to talk about the supply demand issues in silver. Again,
00:22:44.980
we talked about the deficit, meaning they're using more silver than it's coming out of the ground.
00:22:49.540
But this week, there was a crazy breaking story about nuclear plants, the amount of nuclear that's
00:22:58.320
being planned to be built, the amount of silver that goes into maintaining a nuclear power plant,
00:23:05.500
and how much goes into building one. Can you talk to us a little bit about that?
00:23:09.940
Yeah, this is beyond the AI craze, because with every, you know, everyone's using chat GPT today,
00:23:14.880
you need a data center. There's over tens of thousands of kilos of silver for every new data
00:23:20.760
center. So imagine the scale out to build that out. And who's going to finance? That's a major
00:23:26.080
headline this week. Who's financing this? This is going to require a lot of capital, a lot of money
00:23:30.200
printing for this to get something that is scarce. Six-year structural deficits coming out of the
00:23:35.520
silver mines. It's a very big problem. You cannot have civilization without silver. Now,
00:23:40.580
the news this week came from Jokin Steger. He's the CEO and founder of Swiss Resource Capital.
00:23:48.000
And he's a silver expert. And he gave us some crazy data regarding the nuclear, nuclear race. So energy
00:23:55.040
is an industry expert. He said that 2025 this year could mark the first year in history where 100% of
00:24:03.460
global mine supply will go into industrial usages, meaning there could not, there may not be enough
00:24:10.120
silver for the investor. That's going to be something of the past. Now, China is leading that
00:24:15.840
nuclear charge right now with 20 react, 23 reactors currently under construction, and they have 30 more
00:24:22.660
to come planned by 2030. That's a, that's another year that we talk about here in Canada, 2030, that plan,
00:24:29.240
while people are building and getting resources, we are scaling back. How many ounces does it take to
00:24:35.700
create one of these nuclear, nuclear reactors? Well, I know because I'm looking at it right now.
00:24:40.280
You got the number? I got the number, yeah. I mean, three to five million ounces of silver.
00:24:43.720
Three to five million ounces to build one. And how many, how many are they planning on building right now?
00:24:49.760
So 23 in China currently under construction, another 30, right? To be built by 2030. No wonder
00:24:57.080
they're, you know, X, you know, they, they're holding back on exporting silver because there's a boom,
00:25:01.760
they're building out AI, they're building out energy, they're building out nuclear, because they
00:25:08.360
understand that this is the silver stock out that TD banks, Daniel Galli talked about. He's the director
00:25:15.160
of commodities at TD Securities. And he mentioned three times that there's guys, there's a silver rush,
00:25:23.340
the silver stock out is at hand. There's less and less coming out of the ground and more and more heading
00:25:28.380
from London overseas. So there is a way for us to prepare for this, to buy into the silver stock out
00:25:35.480
and to get yourselves some physical precious metals, some physical silver. You want to give us a call
00:25:41.640
or visit the website, get in touch. And it's always an honor to help the Canadians. You know,
00:25:47.180
this is one way of carving out your freedom, a freedom from the erosion of currencies is one way
00:25:52.340
out. But to position yourself for what's to come. This is just the beginning. We're excited about the
00:25:57.000
numbers. 200% of portfolio is great. But this is just the beginning because Guildhall, we exercise and
00:26:02.940
we use the, we exercise the silver to gold ratio. We use that every single day to understand where
00:26:08.460
we're at. It gives us, it goes, this is a ratio that tells us how many ounces of silver to get one
00:26:13.360
ounce of gold. And the average is 30 to one on it usually. And they're mining it at eight to one,
00:26:18.700
eight to one. The historic ratio was 16 to one. And it goes back to the Roman empires, right? It goes
00:26:24.420
back to the Roman empire even before then. So we have a time tested, trusted ratio in cycles that are at
00:26:31.800
play to understand where we are. And breakouts do not happen in physical, in gold and silver until that
00:26:37.680
ratio goes below 70. And currently we're at 80 to one. You know what's crazy about that is 80 to one
00:26:44.340
is not a peak in the market. That's right. That's the beginning of the market. The last,
00:26:50.020
the first time we ever hit 80 to one was in 2008. And the market and silver fell to about $9 after it
00:26:57.240
had climbed up to 21. And we hit, we hit 80 to one back in 2008. And then it climbed all the way from
00:27:05.020
2008 through 2011. It got up to a 35 to one. 1988 got to 16 to one. Again, they're mining it at
00:27:11.620
eight to one and there's a deficit. So there is potentially a very, very long way to go
00:27:17.280
in silver. And to know that at minimum 150 million ounces are going to be used for nuclear reactors
00:27:26.540
is pretty astounding when you think about that they're mining about half a million a year,
00:27:31.280
or half a billion a year, 500 million a year. So that's a huge amount. Not talking about batteries
00:27:37.040
and wind power and medical usages or military usages or these data centers or anything else
00:27:43.120
that silver is used in. So the fundamentals for silver look really phenomenal at this point,
00:27:50.280
even with the gains. I know we didn't talk a lot about gold this week. We will talk a lot about gold
00:27:56.200
in the coming weeks. But if you're looking to get involved in the physical gold and silver market
00:28:01.660
with Guildhall, you can buy it direct from us. Gold bars. We just launched the half ounce gold bar,
00:28:07.420
which is great. I don't know how much we have. Inventories are always tight, but
00:28:12.160
you can always buy bars, coins, gold, silver. And we do help clients to store. And then as well,
00:28:21.020
within registered accounts, why have paper? Why have counterparty risk? You can own it yourself.
00:28:27.060
And one of the great things is even when clients convert their RSPs to RIFs, they can even take
00:28:32.480
delivery of it as part of their withdrawal every year, which is an exciting thing to see. So
00:28:37.340
that does it for a week of The Real Money Show, Jerry. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for joining
00:28:43.340
us. And we can't wait to speak to you next time here on The Real Money Show.
00:28:46.160
We'll see you next time here on The Real Money Show.